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Mexico's economy shrank by 8.2% in the first three months of this year compared with a year earlier, as the global downturn hit demand for exports. The country's finance minister has warned that economic output could decline by 5.5% in 2009. Mexico has been hit by the US recession and a drop in the amount of money sent home by migrant workers. Analysts predict the Mexican economy could suffer its biggest contraction this year since 1995.
The latest figures do not reflect the impact of swine flu, which broke out after the quarter had ended. The Mexican finance ministry has warned that the flu could cost the country's economy more than $2bn (£1.3bn). "We are looking at a lost year," said emerging markets strategist Win Thin at BBH. Capital Economics echoed this view saying the latest data "confirms our view that the economy is currently facing the worst recession in its modern history". "This sharp fall leads us to believe that our initial GDP forecast of a 5% contraction this year was not pessimistic enough." Capital Economics has now downgraded its forecast to an 8% contraction. Mexico sends 80% of its exports to the US, so has been particularly exposed to the fall in consumer spending there.
Is company cost-cutting company throat-slitting? In recent weeks, a number of investors and economists have declared the recession all but over based on a handful of seemingly positive signs, including a flurry of better-than-expected earnings from U.S. companies. They may be getting ahead of themselves. Aggressive cost-cutting through layoffs and capital expenditure reductions has, it's true, helped many companies report profits that surpassed analysts' estimates. But beneath what can be perceived as "green shoots" of recovery, experts say, lie the germinating seeds of what could be a much deeper, more prolonged recession. "I think the clear and present danger is the negative feedback loop for the economy," said Greg Peters, head of global-fixed income and economic research at Morgan Stanley in New York." If people are getting laid off and if capital expenditures are being pulled back, then that has a cascading effect that is much more long-lasting on the economy."
Analysts and investors argue that while job, capex and R&D cuts may shore up individual profits temporarily, they are bad news in the aggregate. They swell the ranks of the unemployed, reduce the wages of those who keep their jobs, and hurt an already struggling economy by further crimping consumer and corporate spending.
And that will only ricochet back on the companies themselves, reducing demand for their products and services and putting additional pressure on their sales and margins. "As corporations cut payrolls and deleverage they are acting perfectly rationally," said Robert Reich, the former U.S. Labor Secretary under President Bill Clinton who now teaches at the University of California, Berkeley. "But if that's what every corporation does, we're going to end up with far more job losses and in a deeper economic hole. Who's going to be left to buy all the goods and services these companies produce?"
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