Ballot Box

The Lottery That Elected Bob McDonnell

2009-11-09T17:25:02-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Republican Bob McDonnell won a smashing, 345,000-vote, 17-point victory in the Virginia governor's race last week -- and he wouldn't have won had it not been for the luck of the draw.

Three months ago, Larry Sabato wrote a column about how the order in which candidates are listed on the ballot affects the number of votes they receive. He noted that research indicates that candidates listed first receive additional votes and that this effect is most pronounced for elections in which voters don't know much about the candidates.

That brought Sabato to a point about the 2005 Virginia attorney general's race between, yes, Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds:

Attorney general is the third of three statewide offices listed on the ballot. As determined by lottery the prior June, McDonnell was put first on the ballot, Deeds second, and there were no other candidates. Party labels were listed on the ballot. After a recount, McDonnell won with 970,981 votes to 970,621 for Deeds, an astonishingly small difference of 360 votes--the closest statewide election in Virginia's history.
...
However, the McDonnell-Deeds contest was not highly publicized, certainly compared to the race for governor. Few would argue that a sizeable percentage of the voters on Election Day knew little about either candidate. Given our principles of first-listing bias, it is highly probable that first-listed candidate McDonnell gained considerably more than his 360-vote margin from the luck of the June drawing.

It's not clear that Creigh Deeds would have been elected governor had he won the attorney general's office in 2005. He would have benefited from the name recognition that comes with being a statewide officeholder and it seems likely he wouldn't have had to deal with a contested Democratic primary. Still, being attorney general wouldn't have changed his failings as a candidate or the national mood that led Republicans to be more motivated than Democrats.

What is clear, though, is that had Deeds won the 2005 race, Bob McDonnell would not have been elected governor last week. Rather, Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling would have been the almost-certain Republican nominee. While we don't know how he would have performed on the big stage of a governor's race, there's a good chance that, had that lottery gone the other way, we'd be talking today about Governor-elect Bolling's smashing victory.

None of that takes anything away from the disciplined, focused campaign that McDonnell ran this year. Rather, it's a reminder that while politics certainly is a game of skill, it's also a game of chance.

Gay Marriage in New Jersey: Now or Not for a While

2009-11-09T14:17:33-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

In New Jersey last Tuesday, a candidate for governor who opposes gay marriage (Chris Christie) defeated a candidate who supports it (Jon Corzine). That's why the state may be about to legalize gay marriage in the next few weeks.

Confused? The Star-Ledger explains:

The battle over same-sex marriage in New Jersey took on new urgency for both sides last week when Chris Christie, a Republican, beat Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, in the gubernatorial election. Since Christie opposes same-sex marriage and Corzine supports it, the upcoming lame-duck legislative session may be the last opportunity for a vote on same-sex marriage measure for at least four years.
...
With Corzine still in office for 10 weeks, both sides are intensifying efforts to advertise, lobby, and press supporters to contact legislators, through the end of the lame-duck session that starts later this month.

Seattle Mayor: McGinn Close to Victory

2009-11-09T10:29:28-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

In Seattle's mayoral election, underdog Mike McGinn is looking more and more like he will end up on top. From the Seattle Times:

Mike McGinn took a decisive lead in the Seattle mayor's race Friday night, leading by 2,384 votes.
Joe Mallahan would now have to get about 54 percent of the remaining votes to catch up to McGinn.

From that same article, here's a good reminder of what McGinn faced:

Mallahan had support from state leaders, including Gov. Chris Gregoire and leading state legislators, the chairman of the Washington State Democrats, Seattle's business community, most major unions, and police and firefighters.

As a result, if McGinn wins it will be interesting to watch him interact with the governor, the unions, the business community, the firefighters, etc.

Why Turnout in Virginia Wasn't Quite as Bad as You Think

2009-11-06T12:44:55-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Part of the quickly congealing convention wisdom of Tuesday's election is that turnout was down dramatically in Virginia. Democrats lost because they didn't show up. While that's certainly true to some extent, I think the case has been overstated a bit.

Here's what Larry Sabato had to say:

Turnout played a huge role in the outcomes in both NJ and VA, with Republicans showing up in droves and Democrats going fishing, at least to some degree. In Virginia, one result of absentee Democrats was the lowest voter turnout for a gubernatorial election in the state's modern two-party history (1969 to 2009). The 2009 turnout of 39.8 percent of the registered voters was the lowest in forty years. Even with all the population growth since 2005, the absolute voter turnout in 2009 (1.97 million) fell below that of four years ago (2.0 million). And the electorate was barely more than half that of 2008 (3.7 million). Astounding.

Sabato's stats do show a sharp drop in the turnout rate for registered voters compared to previous Virginia gubernatorial races: This year, 5 percentage points fewer registered voters showed up than in 2005, a drop of 11.6%. That's quite a lot. The drop was even steeper compared to 2001.

However, it's worth noting that there were 500,000 more registered voters in Virginia this year than in 2005. Population growth only partially explains the change. The 2008 presidential election, in which both parties (especially Democrats) aggressively tried to find new voters in the state, contributed. For that reason, I think measuring turnout based on registered voters is somewhat misleading.

How do I know that the increase in registered voters wasn't entirely because of population growth? Because Virginia's voting-eligible population (VEP) -- the numbers of adults who aren't non-citizens or disenfranchised felons -- has only increased by approximately 225,000 since 2005. VEP is the truest measure of everyone who might have voted in an election, which is why I think it's the best standard by which to judge turnout.

Michael McDonald is a turnout guru at George Mason University who estimates each state's VEP in every even-numbered year. Based on his numbers, I came up with simple estimates for Virginia's VEP for its recent gubernatorial elections, which, of course, were in odd-numbered years. I assumed that 2001had a VEP that was the mid-point between 2000 and 2002. For 2005, it was the mid-point between 2004 and 2006. For 2009, I just assumed that the VEP had increased at the same annual rate as between 2006 and 2008.

Using those numbers, here's a chart that displays turnout based both on VEP and on registered voters.

As you can see, turnout was down even based on VEP. But, it only dropped by a couple of percentage points. That's not nearly enough to explain Bob McDonnell's 17-point victory, unless Democrats showed up in unusually small numbers and Republicans showed up in unusually large numbers (which is probably what happened).

All of that being said, there is a case to be made that the turnout stats based on registered voters are relevant too. By registering last year, hundreds of thousands of Virginians showed for the first time that they were interested in politics. As a result, you might have expected turnout to increase this year based on VEP. Perhaps it isn't surprising that people who weren't even registered to vote prior to 2008 didn't show up in large numbers for a state election, but Democrats almost certainly would have been better off if they had.

New York City's Indepublican Mayor

2009-11-05T17:30:09-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

I've been looking through exit poll data in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City. A couple of questions struck me in the Big Apple.

First, understandably, no one knows how to describe Mayor Michael Bloomberg's party affiliation. Thirty-four percent said independent, 31% said Republican, 12% said Democrat and 19% said other. I'd like to think that 19% has joined me in describing Bloomberg, who ran on the Republican and Independence Party lines, as a Indepublican (I've decided that has a better ring than "Rependent").

Secondly, it's rare that you can say that voters answered an exit poll question incorrectly. However, 45% of voters said Bloomberg's decision to change mayoral term limits made them less likely to vote for him. Forty percent, including many Bloomberg supporters, said the decision had no effect on their votes.

That's simply wrong. If Bloomberg hadn't changed the term limits law, he wouldn't have been on the ballot, so they definitely wouldn't have voted for him.

On a more serious note, Bloomberg did have a 70% approval rating in the exit poll. So, his weak showing shouldn't be read as to strong of a renunciation of the mayor.

Charlie Crist on the Stimulus, Then and Now

2009-11-05T13:32:30-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Feeling heat from the right in his U.S. Senate bid, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said on CNN today that he never endorsed the federal economic stimulus. Here's the letter he and other governors signed that begins, "We are writing to express out support for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act..."

The People Who Aren't Leading the Seattle Mayoral Race

2009-11-05T13:05:57-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

The Seattle mayoral election is one of the few around the country that remains too close to call. What's striking, though, is who isn't ahead or isn't involved at all:

-Mayor Greg Nickels. The two-term incumbent placed third in the all-candidate primary, which eliminated him from the general election.

-Former Seattle SuperSonics center James Donaldson. The 7'2" basketball player came in fourth in the primary.

-Councilmember Jan Drago. The veteran politician came in fifth in the primary.

-Joe Mallahan, a cell phone company executive who spent hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money on the race. He currently trails by 462 votes.

The leading candidate (with thousands more ballots to count) is Mike McGinn, a lawyer and environmental activist. Seattle is the sort of place where it isn't that surprising that an environmental activist would have a chance to be elected mayor.

Nonetheless, usually when there's an upset in politics, the underdog has overcome one or perhaps two frontrunners. If McGinn wins, he'll have defeated four people who were more famous or better funded (or both) than he was.

Legislative Specials: Republican Gains

2009-11-04T17:23:27-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Republicans had a good day in legislative special elections yesterday. Here's a recap of some of the action.

Republicans picked up a Michigan Senate seat that had previously been held by a Democrat, as the Battle Creek Enquirer reports:

A Republican will take the District 19 state Senate seat as voters favored Mike Nofs at the polls Tuesday.
In an unofficial 20,237-11,380 decision, with all precincts reporting, Nofs pulled out a win over Democrat Martin Griffin. Independent Steve Mobley received 1,143 votes and Libertarian Greg Merle got 400 votes.
The District 19 seat has been vacant since January, when Democrat Mark Schauer resigned to represent Michigan's 7th Congressional District.

Republicans also picked up a Democratic-held House seat in a conservative area of Eastern Washington, as the Walla Walla Union-Bulletin reports:

WALLA WALLA -- After more than two decades in Democratic Party hands, the 16th Legislative District position 2 seat became GOP territory Tuesday.

Republican Party candidate Terry Nealey was the apparent winner of the off-season election with 58 percent of the vote against 42 percent for Democratic Party candidate Laura Grant.

Democrats held a House seat in Alabama in a closer than expected race, as the Press-Register reports:

MONTGOMERY, Ala. -- Democrat Elaine Beech won a special election for the state House of Representatives on Tuesday, according to unofficial returns, but the vote was closer than some expected.

Beech garnered 53 percent, or 3,262 votes, in the race for House District 65, while her Republican opponent, Jerry Reed, received 47 percent, or 2,892 votes, county probate officials said. Provisional ballots are not included in the totals.

Beech said Tuesday night that she was expecting a larger margin of victory. The district traditionally leans Democratic, and the last Democrat to run for the seat, Marc Keahey, won a 2006 election with 60 percent of the vote.

Democrats also held a House seat in Missouri, as the Associated Press reports:

According to results on the Web site for the Missouri secretary of state's office, Democrat Stacey Newman beat Republican Daniel O'Sullivan Jr. in Tuesday's election, with all precincts reporting.

Newman replaces Democrat Steve Brown of Clayton. Brown and Democratic state Sen. Jeff Smith of St. Louis resigned Aug. 25 after admitting to obstruction of justice connected to Smith's unsuccessful 2004 run for Congress.

Mark Sanford's campaign help didn't doom a Republican in South Carolina, who won easily, as the Herald reports:

Voters in northern York County gave Ralph Norman a political comeback on Tuesday, choosing the Republican real estate developer over Democrat Kathy Cantrell in a state House special election.
According to unofficial results, Norman earned 72 percent of the vote to recapture the District 48 seat he held for a term before an unsuccessful 2006 run against U.S. Rep. John Spratt, D-S.C. He defeated Cantrell in all 28 precincts, including absentee.
Tuesday's victory came as little surprise in a reliably conservative district that has sent Republicans to Columbia for 20 years. Becky Meacham-Richardson and Carl Gullick preceded Norman.

Nassau County Executive: 12,000 Paper Ballots Left

2009-11-04T15:36:37-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Liz Benjamin has the latest on the Nassau nail-biter:

In a conference call with reporters this afternoon, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi blamed his near-loss on a combination of voters' anti-incumbent sentiment and anger over property taxes.
Suozzi, who is hanging to his job by a 237-vote threat at the moment, said he intends to "stick this process out to the end."
He said he is "neither optimistic nor pessimistic," but did note there are some 12,000 paper ballots still out - from affidavit and emergency paper to absentees - and predicted the race could take up to a month to decide.

In Washington, Trends Favor Domestic Partnership Law

2009-11-04T12:16:38-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

The Seattle Times has the latest on Washington's vote on whether to give same-sex couples the same rights as married couples:

The trends looked positive for the measure, which would expand the state's domestic-partnership law.
It was winning by nearly 3-to-1 in King County, where about 30 percent of the state's voters reside, and also doing well in other Puget Sound-area counties. It was being soundly rejected across Eastern Washington and in many other counties.
But fewer votes remained to be counted where it was being rejected than where it was winning approval, according to a Seattle Times analysis.

If the domestic-partnership law is upheld, the results in Washington and Maine probably will say a lot about where the country is on gay rights (or at least where Democratic-leaning states are). A majority of voters are willing to recognize same-sex unions and confer legal rights on those unions. But, a majority isn't willing to call those unions marriages.

Nassau County: Suozzi Leads by 237 Votes

2009-11-04T11:32:47-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

The New York Times has the latest on the closest major race of the night:

In Nassau County, Republicans recaptured the county legislature, and have come close to unseating the Democratic County Executive, Thomas R. Suozzi, in a race that remained too close to call on Wednesday morning. Mr. Suozzi was clinging to a narrow 237-vote lead over the Republican challenger, Edward Mangano. In 2001, Mr. Suozzi, then the mayor of Glen Cove, defeated a Republican machine that had dominated the county for decades; he later competed for the 2006 gubernatorial nomination against Eliot R. Spitzer.

If there's a message coming out of yesterday's results in New York and New Jersey, it's that voters really don't like property taxes. But, you probably already knew that.

Legislative Outcomes

2009-11-04T01:11:55-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Despite Chris Christie's win, New Jersey Democrats will maintain control of the state Assembly.

It's clear that in Virginia, Republicans will add to their majority in the state House of Delegates. The only count I've seen thus far is from the Republican State Leadership Committee, which says the GOP netted six seats.

Neither state held Senate elections.

Races I'm Still Watching (and Goodnight!)

2009-11-04T01:08:08-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

There are a few legislative special elections I'll get to tomorrow, but other than that the only races I still have my eye one are:

-The super-close race for Nassau County Executive

-The Maine gay marriage vote -- The gay marriage law appears as though it will be overturned, but I haven't seen an official call.

-Seattle mayor

-The race for County Executive in King County, Washington, which Democrat Dow Constantine appears likely to win

-Washington's gay rights vote

Since vote-counting in Washington typically takes days (you merely have to mail your ballot by election day) and since you can check these results as well as I can, I think I'm going to turn my attention to my write up of the day's ballot measures. Look for it tomorrow on Governing.com.

Overall, it was a good night for Republicans, but also a rather bizarre night when you factor in the Bloomberg saga and the surprise in New York-23. Thanks for reading!

Gay Marriage Losing in Maine

2009-11-04T00:57:54-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The gay marriage repeal is leading, 52 to 48 percent. The count still has a ways to go but it's been the repeal side that's gathered strength as the night wears on.

In Washington State, the domestic partners measure passed. Also by a narrow margin. This one ratifies a state law that grants all the rights enjoyed by married couples to same-sex domestic partners.

Tomorrow's Story?

2009-11-04T00:38:15-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

If you had to design tonight's results to cause painful soul-searching in both major parties, wouldn't you have had Republicans win the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, but Democrats win New York-23?

Nassau County: Suozzi Leads by 313 Votes

2009-11-04T00:24:16-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

The barnburner of the night is in Nassau County, New York, where Democratic County Executive Tom Suozzi is clinging to the lead. From Newsday:

With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Suozzi, a Glen Cove Democrat, leads Mangano, a Republican from Bethpage, by 313 votes, according to the Nassau Board of Elections.

Gay Marriage in New Jersey?

2009-11-04T00:11:19-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

With Jon Corzine losing in New Jersey and Maine looking more and more likely to overturn its gay marriage law, I have to wonder what happens to gay marriage in New Jersey.

Corzine favors gay marriage and there had been some talk that New Jersey would pass a gay marriage law in its lame duck legislative session later this year. But would Corzine really sign such a major bill on his way out of office?

Garamendi Holds Early Lead in House Race

2009-11-04T00:11:00-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

John Garamendi, the Democratic lieutenant governor of California and a perennial candidate, holds an early lead in a special congressional election in Northern California.

He's up 57 to 38 with about a quarter of the votes in.

The East Bay seat opened up when Ellen Tauscher was appointed to the Obama administration.

McGinn Up Early in Seattle

2009-11-04T00:04:56-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Environmentalist Mike McGinn is leading cell-phone executive Joe Mallahan in the Seattle mayor's race, but just barely.

With 38 percent of precincts reporting, McGinn has 50.5 percent to 49.4 percent for Mallahan.

The two combined to knock incumbent Greg Nickles out in the primary.

Bell Wins in Toledo

2009-11-04T00:01:24-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Mike Bell, Toledo's long-time fire chief, has won election as mayor. Bell ran as an independent and defeated Democrat Mike Wilkowski.

Bell will replace Carty Finkbeiner, the controversial mayor who has held that office off and on since 1995.

Republicans Win Majority on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court

2009-11-03T23:59:18-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Republican Joan Orie Melvin has won a seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, giving Republicans a 4-3 majority. I'll make sure to remember this election come 2011, if the court gets involved in redistricting.

Ravenstahl Wins Full Term

2009-11-03T23:54:43-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Luke Ravenstahl, the youthful mayor of Pittsburgh, took 55 percent of the vote today in his successful quest to win a full term.

Ravenstahl became mayor at 26 in 2006, following the death of Bob O'Connor.

Norwood-Reed Runoff

2009-11-03T23:51:29-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

In the Atlanta mayor's race, Mary Norwood has 43 percent of the vote, with 93 percent of the precincts reporting. She'll be headed for a runoff with Kasim Reed, who has 38 percent.

Lisa Borders, the city council president and third-place finisher, has conceded.

Watch for racial politics to play out in this one, as Norwood would be the city's first white mayor in a generation.

Democratic County Executives Trail in Suburban New York

2009-11-03T23:48:45-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Andrew Spano, the Democratic county executive in Westchester County, trails badly. Tom Suozzi, the county executive in Nassau County, trails narrowly.

As Liz Benjamin points out, those results, combined with Bloomberg's performance, are strong signs of anti-incumbent sentiment in New York.

Elsewhere in Upstate

2009-11-03T23:37:41-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Stephanie Miner was elected as the first woman mayor of Syracuse today.

Albany Mayor Gerald Jennings easily won a fifth term.

Byron Brown of Buffalo and Robert Duffy of Rochester won even more easily. They were unopposed.

Rybak Looking Strong

2009-11-03T23:31:46-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

For all the possible merits of instant runoff voting, it seems to be slowing down the count in Minneapolis.

With just 11 percent of the vote counted -- by hand -- incumbent Mayor R.T. Rybak has taken 70 percent against a large field.

Christie Wins By 5

2009-11-03T23:28:18-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The vote counting is just about done in New Jersey. Chris Christie has taken 49.2 percent to Corzine's 44.4 percent, with Chris Daggett finishing at 5.6 percent.

St. Petersburg Mayor: Republican Bill Foster Wins

2009-11-03T23:28:02-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

The Democratic-leaning voters of St. Petersburg, Florida stuck with Republican leadership, picking Bill Foster in an open-seat race. From the St. Petersburg Times:

ST. PETERSBURG — Bill Foster crested to victory Tuesday, defeating Kathleen Ford with the backing of the city's political establishment in a mayoral election that tested voters' hunger for change.

Ultimately, voters rallied behind Foster, 46, a lawyer and former council member who promised steady progress in contrast to Ford's reformist platform.

Early mail ballots gave Foster a meager lead, but his margin of victory only widened throughout the night as precinct results from Election Day trickled in.

Gay Marriage Slipping Behind in Maine

2009-11-03T23:26:18-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

With 60 percent of precincts reporting in Maine, the yes votes for repeal of gay marriage are now ahead, 51.58 to 48.42 percent.

More clear outcomes on tax issues. A taxpayer bill of rights amendment is (again) losing, as is a proposal to scale back the state's excise tax on automobiles.

McDonnell's Crushing Win

2009-11-03T23:22:18-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Bob McDonnell's almost-final vote total in Virginia is 59 percent to Creigh Deeds' anemic 41 percent.

For all the talk of a referendum on Obama (to continue harping on a theme), I've seen nor heard anyone talk about what an embarrassment this represents for Tim Kaine -- not only the sitting governor, but the chairman of the national Democratic Party.

Mayors: Bloomberg, Bing Win

2009-11-03T23:12:10-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Order is restored to the universe, as the AP calls the New York City mayoral race for Michael Bloomberg.

Also, Dave Bing won a full-term in Detroit, despite the best efforts of Challenger Tom Barrow to pull off an incredible comeback.

Bing won the August primary against Barrow 74%-11%. He's winning tonight 58%-42%.

Houston: Headed to Runoff

2009-11-03T23:12:00-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The Houston mayor's race was always expected to go to a runoff, but there looks to be a surprising cast of characters in the final two.

With 75 percent of the vote in, Annise Parker has the lead with 31 percent. Former City Attorney Gene Locke has 25 percent.

It was expected that the two of them would battle it out for second place behind City Councilman Peter Brown, who had spent $3 million worth of family money on the race, had been leading in polls and clearly enjoyed an edge in advertising exposure. But he's looking shut out of the runoff at the moment, with 23 percent.

Cincinnati's Mallory Winning Second Term

2009-11-03T23:04:20-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Mark Mallory, the Democratic mayor of Cincinnati, looks like he's cruising to a second term. He's got 57 percent of the vote with 55 percent of the precincts reporting.

Mallory never broke much of a sweat campaigning in the largely Democratic city. He said that his bigger Election Day worry was Issue 9, a local measure to require a vote of the people on passenger rail expenditures -- a move to block construction of a streetcar line. But the measure appears to be losing.

Maine Gay Marriage: A Repeat of California 2008?

2009-11-03T22:59:16-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Nate Silver tweets:

Not sure it looks too good for gay marriage in Maine. Cumberland County, the most liberal in the state, is way overrepresented so far

Chris Coleman Reelected in St. Paul

2009-11-03T22:50:41-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Chris Coleman, who unseated a St. Paul mayor four years ago, won a second term in that office today. Coleman, a Democrat who recently ruled out a run for Minnesota governor next year, took 68 percent of the vote.

Charlotte Mayor: Democrat Anthony Foxx Wins

2009-11-03T22:43:59-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

If Democrats are seeking solace on a rough election night for the party, one place to look is Charlotte. From the Charlotte Observer:

Anthony Foxx was elected mayor of Charlotte on Tuesday, defeating John Lassiter and putting a Democrat in the city's top elected position for the first time in 22 years.

Lassiter conceded to Foxx shortly before 10:15 p.m., even taking a phone call from the winner while giving his concession speech on live TV.

With unofficial returns from 168 of the city's 169 precincts, Foxx had 51.3 percent of the vote, to 48.6 percent for Lassiter. A margin of about 3,000 votes out of more than 106,000 separated the two men.

Then again, the party may not need solace from Charlotte, if the NY-23 results hold.

Bloomberg's Narrow Win?

2009-11-03T22:43:28-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

MSNBC has retracted its call of the New York City mayor's race, but The New York Times is still calling it for Bloomberg.

With 89 percent of precincts in, Bloomberg is up just 49.9 percent to Thompson's 46.7 percent.

Obviously the race might have gone differently if Bloomberg hadn't outspent Thompson 14-to-1. But, for all the talk about referenda on Obama -- might the Democrats have pulled this one out if the president had campaigned for Thompson?

NY-23: Dem Up, Still Close

2009-11-03T22:38:32-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

To make it a trifecta, Repubilcans are rooting for Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, to win the special congressional election in upstate New York.

So far, Democrat Bill Owens is leading. Hotline:

Atty Bill Owens (D) leads in the early count (27% of precincts reporting) by a 51-44% advantage over accountant Doug Hoffman (C). Some keys to Owens' early success: He's taking his home, Clinton Co., with 57%, and also slightly winning Jefferson and St. Lawrence Cos -- places where Hoffman needs to do very well.

Jefferson and St. Lawrence Cos are traditionally GOP strongholds, but they're also Assemb. Dede Scozzafava's (R) base. If Owens continues to do well in these counties, Hoffman will be in trouble. But it's still very early.

NYC-Mayor: Bloomberg Doesn't Win?

2009-11-03T22:37:40-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Wow, things have gotten crazy in New York City, where an exit pollster has retracted its call that Mayor Michael Bloomerg has been reelected. The New York Times still says he won.

I was wrong: This election does have suspense.

(Hat tip: Swing State Project)

Looks Like an Upset in Dayton

2009-11-03T22:30:14-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Counting has stalled at 98.7 percent of the precincts in Dayton, but challenger Gary Leitzell may have already run up an unbeatable lead against incumbent Mayor Rhine McLin.

Leitzell is up, 52 to 48 percent.

NJ-Governor: Christie Wins

2009-11-03T22:29:19-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

The Associated Press has called the New Jersey governor's race for Chris Christie. The Republican won in his Democratic-leaning state despite being badly outspent by Gov. Jon Corzine. Corzine, though, was never a very popular governor and voters usually find a way to get rid of elected officials they don't like.

Now comes the tough part. Christie will enter office more badly bruised than Bob McDonnell in Virginia. He has a mandate to cut property taxes and a budget situation that will make it difficult to do so.

New Florida Mayors

2009-11-03T22:24:41-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Tomás Regalado has triumphed in the Miami mayor's race, taking 72 percent of the vote. Fellow city commissioner Joe Sanchez has conceded.

In St. Petersburg, Bill Foster was elected mayor, beating Kathleen Ford, 53 to 47 percent. Both were former members of the city council.

Foster is a Republican, keeping the seat in GOP hands following the outgoing Rick Baker.

Norwood Ahead But Not Mayor

2009-11-03T22:18:25-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

As expected, Councilwoman Mary Norwood is leading in Atlanta's mayoral contest. She has 47 percent of the vote, with 19 percent of precincts reporting.

She would need 50 percent plus one to avoid a Dec. 1 runoff. Right now, it's looks like her runoff opponent will be former state legislator Kasim Reed. He's at 36 percent.

Outgoing Mayor Shirley Franklin, who had refused to endorse a candidate, said yesterday that she'd be voting for Reed.

Republicans Make Gains in Virginia House

2009-11-03T22:17:18-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Blogger Not Larry Sabato -- who is a more irreverent version of his namesake -- is compiling the results from the elections for the Virginia House. Republicans are gaining a few seats, as you'd expect given their strength in the statewide races.

NJ Gov: Christie Ahead

2009-11-03T22:13:59-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

With 44 percent of precincts reporting, Republican Chris Christie is leading Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, 50 to 44 percent.

Maine: Gay Marriage Barely Ahead

2009-11-03T22:09:21-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

With 22 percent of precincts reporting, Maine's ballot measure to repeal the state's gay marriage law is barely trailing, with 55,569 "no" votes to 55,267 on the "yes" side. That's 50.62 percent to 49.38 percent.

The medical marijuana measure is passing handily, while the repeal of school consolidation -- an issue Josh and I have both written about in the past -- is losing by a 20-point margin.

Other NYC Races

2009-11-03T22:01:24-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Despite apparently voting in a Republican for mayor for the fifth time in a row, New York City is otherwise living up to its bona fides as a Democratic stronghold. Democrats have won the races for public advocate, city comptroller and the borough presidencies of Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx.

James Molinaro, the Republican borough president of Staten Island, looks set to hold onto that post.

Charles Hynes is unopposed for another term as Brooklyn district attorney.

Stepping into the office of Manhattan district attorney will be Cyrus Vance, Jr. (yes, his dad was Carter's secretary of state). He'll replace 80-year-old Robert Morgenthau (pictured), who is stepping down this year after having served in the post since 1975.

NYC-Mayor: Bloomberg Wins

2009-11-03T22:01:24-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Well, there was no more or less suspense than anyone expected: Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been reelected in New York City.

The question now, I suppose, is what does he do next? The short answer is serve as mayor of New York City, but my question more has to do with who he aligns himself with in New York state politics and federal politics. Despite his popularity, Bloomberg would have had an awfully hard time winning without the Republican ballot line. Does he owe Republicans any favors?

Also, Tom Menino won a 5th term in Boston.

Bloomberg Wins Third Term

2009-11-03T21:53:42-05:00

posted by Alan Greenblatt

With just 17 percent of the precincts in and a close count so far, The New York Times is nonetheless calling the New York City mayor's race for incumbent Michael Bloomberg, running this time as a Republican and Independent.

Bloomberg is up, 49 to 48 percent, over comptroller William Thompson. Bloomberg is estimated at having spent $100 million of his own money on this race. His three race total is about $350 million, making him the largest-spending self-financing candidate in U.S. history.

Somewhat rudely, given the circumstances, Bloomberg criticized Thompson at a recent debate for having accepted $500,000 in campaign contributions from people who do business with the city. "Give the money back," Bloomberg says. "It just looks terrible, even if it's not."

Bloomberg -- and the city -- face a $5 billion budget deficit.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court: Advantage Republicans?

2009-11-03T21:49:04-05:00

posted by Josh Goodman

Right now, Democrat Jack Panella has 51% of the vote in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race that, in a convoluted way, could determine control of legislative redistricting. However, 74% of precincts have reports in Philadelphia (where Panella is taking 76% of the vote). Only 41% of precints have reported statewide. With Philadelphia mostly in, Republican Joan Orie Melvin could have the edge.