Baltimore Basketball Bulletin

Mid-Season Review Part 3: Rookie of the Year- What will become of this year's class?

2012-02-16T11:05:00.000-05:00

For those who thought Derrick Williams may have been a better pick than Kyrie Irving...you were wrong.

Note: With teams now approaching the 33-game, we will be taking this week to do a mid-season review. Stay tuned for analysis of the standings, MVP, ROY, DPOY, MIP, 6^th Man and more.

What is the true value of a rookie? As we approach the mid-point of the season this question becomes more and more relevant. There are some players who will be stars, future number one options and leaders of their respective teams. There are others who will become second or third scoring options. Some players will wind up as career role players and a majority of each rookie class has a short stint of three or four years in the league.

You won’t find any three and outs in our top 10 rankings and in fact it looks as though this “weak” draft class is a bit stronger than many had predicted, though still nothing to brag about. Kyrie Irving and Ricky Rubio are locks for being franchise players. Kemba Walker is putting up numbers that tell us he is going to have a prolific output and could turn into a franchise player, but the Bobcats aren’t winning games. Is it the lack of talent surrounding him? Does he make his teammates better? Then we have Brandon Knight of the Pistons. He looks to be a true point guard, but it’s uncertain if he will be mediocre or semi-elite. Then we have Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons, both who are a sure thing when it comes to being solid role players, but also have the potential to be second or third scoring options on their teams. MarShon Brooks is a shooter and a scorer at heart. If he can develop a more all-around game, he could be something special, if not he will be a shooting specialist. Amongst the Linsanity, Iman Shumpert has played valuable backup minutes for the Knicks, which might be his purpose in the NBA. Markieff Morris of the Suns has proven he can score when he is given the rock. If the Suns have faith in him he has 20-10 potential. Last is Klay Thompson, who has had a hot hand of late and might be a viable replacement for the volume scoring Monta Ellis.

By the end of the season we will have an even better idea of what type of career each of these players will have. A few of them might have the luxury of making into the playoffs as well. If they can produce on that stage it will help cement them into the NBA.

Rookie Rankings

1. Kyrie Irving- Irving missed three games with concussion symptoms and then returned to lead the Cavs to an impressive win over the Pacers, going for 22 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists. He has singlehandedly rejuvenated the Cavs and will turn them back into a playoff team within a year or two. LW: 2

2. Ricky Rubio- The Wolves hit a cold spot, losing four straight after the Kevin Love face stomp incident. In time Rubio will have the leadership abilities to stop the bleeding from such occurrences, his inability to do that now may have cost the Wolves a shot at the eighth seed in the West. LW: 1

3. Kemba Walker- He has scored 19, 21 and 21 respectively in his last three games. On the season he is averaging 13.1 points, 4 rebounds and 3.6 assists. The Bobcats aren’t quite good enough to make Kemba shine and Kemba isn’t good enough to put him on his back…yet. LW: 6

4. Brandon Knight- The Pistons have won five of seven and the duo of Knight and Monroe as the future of the Pistons is starting to take shape after what was an uber-ugly start to the season. Knight won’t turn into anything all-star worthy, but he is good enough to lead a contender. On the season he is averaging 12.1 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists. LW: 5

5. Kawhi Leonard- Leonard continues to do what is asked of him. When the Spurs need him to log heavy minutes and produce, he does. When they lower his minutes and touches, he takes it in stride. I have a feeling they are priming him to be a big part of their future once the Parker, Ginobili, Duncan era ends. It’s hard to tell how dominant he can be though. LW: 3

6. Chandler Parsons- Much like Leonard he continues to do what is asked of him and had a large role in an impressive win over the Thunder on Wednesday night going for 14 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals in 35 minutes of play. LW: 4

7. MarShon Brooks- He missed nine of ten games due to injury and has slowly returned over the past three games. The sad thing is that the Nets don’t seem to play better with or without him. Things are sad in Jersey, but if MarShon makes it out alive and turns into a 15-20 point scoring threat not named Nick Young, that would be a plus. LW: 8

8. Iman Shumpert- He is being overshadowed by Linsanity and rightfully so, but he has still had a part in the Knicks’ seven game winning streak. On the year he is averaging 10.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists. LW: 9

9. Markieff Morris- In three recent games against the Kings, Warriors and Nuggets Morris was given 10-plus touches and it resulted in scoring outputs of 18, 10 and 21 respectively. In the words of Skip Bayless, it might be time for the Suns to “unleash” Markieff. LW: 10

10. Klay Thompson- During a recent three-game winning streak against the Nuggets, Rockets and Suns, Thompson scored 19, 14 and 10 points respectively. He also did that needing only 11, 10 and 6 shots. Looks like the Warriors may have solved their Monta Ellis problem. LW: UR

Mid-Season Review Part 2: MVP Race

2012-02-15T09:48:00.001-05:00

No headaches for LeBron and the Heat this season.

Note: With teams now approaching the 33-game, we will be taking this week to do a mid-season review. Stay tuned for analysis of the standings, MVP, ROY, DPOY, MIP, 6^th Man and more.

Mid-Season Review Part 1: Where We Sand- A look at the NBA Standings
Mid-Season Review Part 3: Rookie of the Year-What will become of this year's class?

The lockout has caused the MVP race to be somewhat of a rollercoaster ride. We’ve seen a handful of consistent candidates including LeBron, Durant, Kobe and Rose, but also a few wild cards, such as Kevin Love and Chris Paul. Where they rank as MVPs has largely depended on what week you look at them. More recently there have been a few players playing themselves into shape and thus, playing themselves back into the MVP discussion.

At the start of the season Dirk Nowitzki was not looking like the Dirk that won an NBA championship. His stats were significantly lower than previous years and it looked as though he could no longer take over games. Then, he took a few games off to get into better shape. In his last five games he has averaged 24.8 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. This turnaround has also spring boarded the Mavs back into contenders as they currently sit only 4-1/2 games out of first in the West.

Though I doubt Dirk will be able to build a big enough resume to overtake what LeBron is doing, his improved play, along with the recent rise of Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo in Boston has taught us one thing. The season is far from over and the playoffs will perhaps be tougher than we have ever seen. The eighth seed in the East is the Knicks, a spot that used to be occupied by lowly teams like the Milwaukee Bucks. Out West, the top twelve teams are within ten games of each other, making the playoff picture and the MVP race a complete uncertainty until the very end of the season.

MVP Rankings

1. LeBron James- The Heat are now only a half game back from the Bulls for the best record in the East. Even though Bron’s scoring has taken a minor dip with DWade playing healthy, he is still having the most efficient season in NBA history. LW: 1

2. Kevin Durant- Durant has the Thunder hanging on to the best record in the league. More importantly he is showing us he can do more than just score. He is averaging a career best 8.1 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. LW: 2

3. Chris Paul- Everyone knows that the Clippers are stacked with talent, the only problem is someone needs to harness it. That person is not Head Coach Vinny Del Negro, it’s Chris Paul. The Clips have the third seed in the West and are still ahead of the Lakers in the Pacific Division. Props to Mr. Paul. LW: 5

4. Kobe Bryant- He is still leading the league in scoring, but his shooting as of late has been a detriment to the Lakers. If he can get the Lakers consistent he will have a shot at that 6^th ring, if not, he’ll walk away with the scoring title and an early playoff exit. LW: 4

5. Derrick Rose- His overall body of work is impressive. As of late though he has been injured. Short term injuries rarely overthrow entire MVP campaigns, but the Bulls have six wins and two losses when Rose is out. Seems like the true MVP in Chitown might be Coach Tom Thibodeau. LW: 3

6. Dwight Howard- Dwight has been putting up great numbers when he is motivated. In a win against the Heat last week he went for 25 points, 24 boards, 4 assists, 2 blocks and 3 steals. But the last two games he has scored a total of 22 points. The Magic Currently hold the 5^th seed in the East, if Dwight would just man up and commit to Orlando he could have this team atop the East and playing like a true contender. LW: 6

7. Russell Westbrook- Russ has been on fire lately, averaging 27.2 points per game in his last five. Too bad he plays with Kevin Durant. Hopefully he is mature enough to help the Thunder win a championship instead of worry about overthrowing Durant as the team’s alpha dog. LW: 8

8. Dirk Nowitzki- Dirk started off the season as a ghost of himself. Lately though he has looked much more like his old self as he has positioned the Mavs to make a dent in the playoffs again. LW: UR

9. Kevin Love- I think Kevin Love is a stand up dude. I also do not think he intentionally stomped on Luis Scola’s face. Unfortunately, the league did and suspended him for two games and the rising Wolves have now lost four straight. Looks like the impact was larger than the intent. LW: 7

10. Rajon Rondo- Is this Paul Pierce’s team or Rondo’s team? Who can take them further? After logging a triple-double of 32 points, 10 rebounds and 15 assists in a win against the Bulls, it’s starting to look like Rondo is the elixir for the aging Celtics. LW: UR

Mid-Season Review Part 1: Where We Stand- A look at the current NBA Standings

2012-02-13T10:21:00.000-05:00

Somehow Paul Millsap has the Jazz in the playoff picture.

Note: With teams now approaching the 33-game mark, we will be taking this week to do a mid-season review. Stay tuned for analysis of the standings, MVP, ROY, DPOY, MIP, 6^th Man and more.

Mid-Season Review Part 2: MVP Race
Mid-Season Review Part 3: Rookie of the Year-What will become of this year's class?

At the start of the season I debated whether youth or experience would prevail at the end of the season. As we approach the mid-way point, it seems that a little bit of both is resulting in success.

In the East we’ve seen the younger teams in the league, such as the Bobcats, Wizards and Pistons, struggle to a degree that at times has been unwatchable. But a few other young teams, including the 76ers and the Pacers, have gelled and are off to their best starts in a decade. Boston, one of the oldest teams in the East, struggled to find their legs early and were on pace to finish at the bottom of their division until Paul Pierce played his way back into shape and Rondo returned from an injury. The Heat and the Bulls were once again expected to rise to the top of the conference and thus far they have not disappointed. But the Knicks, who many predicted to grab a top seed, looked as though they’d wind up being the leagues biggest disappointment until Jeremy Lin came to their rescue.

Out West 13 of the 15 teams in the conference are separated by 9-1/2 games. And yes, there are still only eight playoff spots in each conference. The Thunder have been using their talent and youth to run away with the Conference. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been battling with the Lakers for the rights to the Staples Center. The crafty Spurs are still hanging on to a top seed and the defending Champion Mavs have played their way into shape and currently sit in the middle of the playoff picture. Then we have Rockets, Nuggets, Jazz, Blazers, Grizzlies, Wolves, Suns and Warriors fighting for the last three spots. Most people expected the Nuggets, Blazers and Grizzlies to be in position to make the playoffs, but the rest of the bunch, especially the Jazz, were assumed to be lottery bound.

If the season were to end today, here is how the playoff picture would look along with my predicitons:

Eastern Conference

1. Chicago Bulls (23-7)- The Bulls hold the best record in the East, but the Heat are right on their heals. Rose has been managing injuries, but what worries me most for the Bulls when it comes to success in the playoffs is that they are still a one-trick pony, even with the addition of Richard Hamilton. Prediction: Lose in the 2^nd round to the Pacers

2. Miami Heat (21-7)- The Heat have been perfect on any night where they aren’t playing the Milwaukee Bucks or getting slaughtered with 3’s by the Magic. They now sit only a game back from the Bulls and I think this year they claim the 1^st-seed. Prediction: Win the NBA Finals

3. Philadelphia 76ers (19-9)- One of the surprise teams this season, the 76ers have relied on teamwork and defense to rise to the next level. I think they can hold on to the 3^rd-seed, but experience will cut their playoff run shorter than fans expect. Prediction: Lose in the 2^nd round to the Heat

4. Atlanta Hawks (18-10)- The Hawks are not as good as their record suggests. Now that Boston and New York have found themselves, I expect the Hawks to drop a few spots in the standings. Prediction: Lose in the 1^st round

5. Indiana Pacers (17-10)- Another Surprise team, the Pacers not only will wind up with a top four seed, but they have the potential to even steal the Central crown from the Bulls. Just the potential though, I expect them to grab the 4^th-seed when all is said and done. Prediction: Lose in the Conference Finals to the Heat

6. Orlando Magic (17-11)- Despite the Dwight Howard turmoil and the uninspired play of Jameer Nelson, the Magic are fairing a little better than I expected. The sad part is that if Howard were to commit to the Magic, they might actually be a contender. The lack of unity will cost them in the playoffs. Prediction: Lose in the 1^st Round

7. Boston Celtics (15-12)- Once again I thought the Celtics were done and age had finally caught up with them. Turns out Paul Pierce was playing himself into shape and Rondo was injured. They won’t win the East, but they won’t be an easy out either. Prediction: Lose in the 1^st Round

8. New York Knicks (13-15)- A week ago the Knicks look doomed. Then the Linsanity ensued and things look a lot different. Hopefully when Melo and Amare return the chemistry sticks. At the start of the season I had the Knicks making it to the Conference Finals. They will wind up with the 5^th or 6^th seed, but I doubt they go as deep as I predicted. Prediction: Lose in the First Round

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (21-6)- The Thunder have a healthy lead atop the West at the moment, but concerns are rising about the relationship between Durant and Westbrook. Many are predicting them to make it out of the West, but their lack of experience and maturity might get the best of them. Prediction: Lose in the Conference Finals to the Clippers

2. L.A. Clippers (17-8)- The Clippers have a hold on the Pacific Division crown and the Big Brother Lakers. It has taken them a bit to gel with the newly acquired Chris Paul, but he is now making a case for MVP and the Clips could be a favorite to make it out of the West. Prediction: Lose in the NBA Finals to the Heat

3. San Antonio Spurs (19-9)- This season is just another example of why Greg Popovich is one of the all-time great NBA coaches. Tim Duncan is well past his prime, Ginobili has been out with injuries and Parker has been playing like he always does. Add in some crafty coaching and the Spurs are just as dangerous as ever. In the end though, I expect similar results in the playoffs from last year. Prediction: Lose in the First Round

4. Dallas Mavericks (17-11)- Dirk was not being Dirk until about a few days ago. The Mavs also got rid of several key pieces from their title run. Despite positioning themselves for success in future season, the Mavs have been coached to the middle of the Western pack. They will go down in the first round. Prediction: Lose in the 1^st Round

5. L.A. Lakers (16-12)- The 5^th, 6^th and 7^th seeds all have the same record. The Lakers will most likely wind up with one of those spots. Their playoff run will depend on matchups and how together they are at the end of the season. When running on all cylinders, Kobe-Bynum-Gasol could win that elusive 6^th-ring for the Mamba. Prediction: Lose in the 2^nd Round to the Thunder

6. Houston Rockets (16-12)- The Rockets off-season plans were vetoed by David Stern. Fortunately their GM is not incompetent and they still have a team that can compete. For a team like the Spurs, the Rockets could be a first round nightmare. Prediction: Lose in the 2^nd round to the Clippers

7. Denver Nuggets (16-12)- The Nuggets were playing some of the best basketball in the league a couple of weeks ago and have since come down to Earth with Gallinari’s injury. If they can stay afloat without him and then return to form when he is healed, I would not be surprised to see the Nuggets find a way to win the West. Prediction: Lose in the 1^st Round

8. Utah Jazz (14-12)- Arguably the biggest surprise this year. The Jazz were forced into trading their best player in Deron Williams last year. Turns out it was a good deal. They aren’t quite as good as they were with Williams, but they are having success playing as a team. I don’t expect them to stay in the playoff picture, but Jazz fans have to be happy. Prediction: Lose in the 1^st Round

Doc Finds The Truth: The Turnaround of the Aging Boston Celtics

2012-02-09T10:54:00.000-05:00

The aging Celtics are no longer fading, how does Doc Rivers do it?

Early this season I was having a conversation with a friend of mine who follows the NBA on a regular basis. We began by discussing our season predictions and MVP picks, but eventually stumbled upon the perennial topic of the aging Boston Celtics. And after four years of waiting, we both concluded, the Celtics were (finally) done. At the time they were sitting near the bottom of the Atlantic Division with a five-win, eight-loss record.

In the summer of 2007, when Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen were shipped from Minnesota and Seattle to team up with a disgruntled Paul Pierce, NBA fans and pundits knew that the Celtics were a force to be reckoned with. Due to the age of that trio, or “Big 3” as they were dubbed, most gave the Celtics a three-year window to win a championship. The transaction was an instant success for the organization and the Celtics went on to win the 2007-’08 title against the rival Los Angeles Lakers. The following year the Celtics were ousted in the second round by the Orlando Magic in seven games[1] and in the 2009-’10 season they lost a seven-game Finals rematch with the Lakers[2]. Then, last season, in an attempt to counter the “Big 3” in Miami, the Celtics traded Perkins, believing that a center would be irrelevant in the playoffs, to Oklahoma City for small forward Jeff Green. The move wound up being a chemistry-imploding ordeal for Rajon Rondo and was futile as the Celtics lost to the Heat in the second round of the playoffs[3]. Afterwards, the lockout happened and delivered us a shortened, gauntlet season of 66 games in 120 days. Good luck to the knees of Kevin Garnett (35, turns 36 in May,) Paul Pierce (34,) and Ray Allen (36.)

In past years when I declared that age would do the Celtics in, my thought process lacked any rationality and was rooted in my unhappiness with LeBron James for not being able to navigate his way around Boston. But this season something was different. For the first time in their history, Boston’s new “Big 3” got off to a bad start. And it wasn’t a relative bad start, where they were doing bad when compared to Bostonian standards, but an actual bad start. They lost their first three games, then won four and then lost five straight. On top of the inconsistencies, it looked as though Garnett had lost all spring to his step, Paul Pierce was playing uninspired and then, in game 13, when the Celtics snapped their five-game losing streak, Rondo went down with a wrist injury that would knock him out for the next eight games. It was clear to my friend and I that they were done.

It seemed implausible to imagine the Celtics somehow turning their season around, especially with their youngest, and arguably their most talented player in Rondo being out with an injury. But as usual, we forgot to account for the coaching prowess of one Doc Rivers, who might just be the best coach in the league at the moment. And without anyone noticing, Doc was able to motivate Paul Pierce and finally found a rotation that works for him.

Over the past twelve games the Celtics have won ten, with one of the losses coming to a last second shot by Kyrie Irving of the Cavs. And, instead of trending towards the bottom of the Atlantic Division, the Celtics suddenly find themselves in second place, three games behind the 76ers. Pierce has averaged 20.5 points, 6 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game in that stretch, but more importantly, the Celtics have returned to their defensive ways, holding opponents to 80.6 points per game, including a game in which the Magic scored only 56 points.

It was premature of me to count the Celtics out so early in the season and perhaps it is premature of me to alter my perceptions at this juncture in the season, but Doc Rivers has clearly struck a nerve with this team and they look to be back. They won’t have the athleticism to outduel the Heat or Bulls for the East crown, but are poised to grab the fourth or fifth seed if the can continue to build momentum as the season moves on. Come playoff time, these Celtics will not be pushovers; they look to have one last fight in them before all is said and done.

[1] A loss that many blame on the loss of Kevin Garnett to a knee injury that kept him out of the entire playoffs. Could have easily been a repeat for the Celtics.

[2] Kendrick Perkins blew out his knee in game six, altering the outcome of the series.

[3] My condolences to Jeff Green, who is missing the 2011-’12 season.

Rookie Rankings Update (2/6)- The Role of Role Players

2012-02-06T11:53:00.001-05:00

The Spurs knew what they were doing when they traded with the Pacers to get Kawhi Leonard.

We’re not even halfway through the season and we know the Rookie of the Year award is going to Kyrie Irving or Ricky Rubio. I don’t say that to make the ROY race sound bland. Up to this point it hasn’t been and I expect Irving and Rubio to continue to entertain fans with their elite talents and the prospect of leading their teams to a playoff spot in their respective conferences. But this week I am more intrigued by a different grouping of players. These aren’t players who have a shot at winning the ROY. They most likely will not win an MVP down the road. At best they might wind up with a couple of All-Star selections, a Most-Improved Player or 6^th-man award. Injuries aside, they will be guaranteed a lengthy NBA career. These are the players that help teams win championships; these are role players.

A couple of rankings ago I touched on Chandler Parsons of the Houston Rockets. You may not have heard of him, but he certainly fits the description of a role player. Currently, he is averaging 7 points, 1.6 assists and 5 rebounds per game. Those stats may seem middle of the road to you, but on a night of back-to-backs, Parsons went for 10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks and a steal in a win against the Suns and for 11 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block and 2 steals in a close loss to the upstart Timberwolves. Not too bad for player who sees his minutes and touches fluctuate from game to game. And in this class of rookies, he isn’t the only one.

Down in San Antonio there is Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has very similar stats to Parsons, averaging 7.2 points, 1.0 assist and 5.0 rebounds per game. At the start of the season, Kawhi was seeing limited minutes and touches. Then, when Manu Ginobili went down with an injury, he was awarded more minutes and touches, a change that translated to Kawhi scoring 11-plus points in a span of six games. Since that stretch, Kawhi’s minutes and touches have again begun to fluctuate as Coach Gregg Popovich searches for a rotation that suits his aging core of Ginobili, Parker and Duncan. But when his number is called upon, Kawhi always delivers. In fact in games where he plays at least 30 minutes he is averaging 12.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game. And last night, in a win against the league leading Oklahoma City Thunder, he had perhaps his best game of the year, going for 15 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists.

If you turn your attention to South Beach and the Miami Heat you will find Norris Cole, another rookie who fits the role player mold. Cole started off the season with a bang, singlehandedly defending a Heat lead against the Boston Celtics in the second game of the season by going for 20 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists. In his first seven games he breeched 10 points on five occasions and also logged his season high of 9 assists. But since that initial outburst Cole has cooled off. On some nights this is due to his playing time, on others he just isn’t as “on” as he was earlier in the season, but more importantly, the Heat have begun to find their stride and haven’t needed Cole to be as much of a sparkplug as he was earlier in the year. But that is precisely why the rookie out of Cleveland State has so much value. Down the road they will trust Norris Cole to deliver. When nothing else is working, he is their go-to guy.

When I look at these three players what I see is the next James Harden, Lamar Odom or Robert Horry. Players who will never lead the league in any statistical category or be the number one option on their team, but when their teams need them most, they can take the rock and make something happen.

Rookie Rankings

1. Ricky Rubio- I moved Rubio above Irving this week for two reasons. First, the Wolves have two wins, one loss since the last set of rankings, the Cavs, one win, two losses. Second, he logged his 10^th and 11^th double-doubles of the seasons and is now averaging 11.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game. I won’t be surprised to see him average a 10 and 10 buy the end of the season. LW: 1b

2. Kyrie Irving- On Saturday Kyrie moved the Cavs to within a half game of the eighth seed in the East by beating the defending Champion Mavs. He went for 20 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists. On the season he is averaging 18.1 points, 3.4 rebounds and 5 assists. LW: 1a

3. Kawhi Leonard- He does what his team asks of him and can be productive when needed. More importantly, his production translates to wins. LW: 5

4. Chandler Parsons- He has scored in double figures in back-to-back games and is partially responsible for Houston being within half a game of the playoffs. LW: 10

5. Brandon Knight- Knight went off on the Bucks on Friday, going for 26 points, 3 rebounds and 7 assists. That production translated into a rare win for the Pistons. Then on Saturday, he broke his nose. No worries, he is getting fitted for a mask and should return shortly. LW: 7

6. Kemba Walker- The Bobcats haven’t won in a long time, which has made Kemba’s production seem rather futile. The thing is, the kid can produce. On Saturday against the Suns he went for 22 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists and on the season he is averaging 12.3 points, 4 rebounds and 3.6 assists. LW: 3

7. Norris Cole- Even though his numbers have gone down, he has become more efficient as the season has gone on. Currently he is averaging 8.6 points, 1.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists. LW: 8

8. MarShon Brooks- MarShon is averaging 14.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. The only problem is he is injured and has played in one game over his last eight. LW: 4

9. Iman Shumpert- The Knicks are still struggling, but that isn’t the fault of Iman Shumpert. His stock might take a major hit though thanks to the performance of second year player Jeremey Lin. Regardless, Shump is averaging 10 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game.

10. Markieff Morris- His production has been up and down, but the Suns haven’t been afraid to give him touches. In a win against the Bobcats Saturday Morris went for 11 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists. If he can become more offensively polished, he will be a beast. LW: UR

MVP Update (2/3): Chris Paul Enters the Discussion

2012-02-03T12:27:00.000-05:00

Chris Paul doesn't take head taps lightly.

In previous weeks it has been noted that this year’s MVP award is a four-man race between LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant and Derrick Rose. LeBron has been putting on an efficiency showdown and is having one of the best statistical seasons in NBA history. Kevin Durant is leading the Thunder to the best record in the league while grabbing more rebounds. Kobe has gotten back to being Kobe by leading the league in scoring and fighting for ownership of the Staples Center with the Clippers. And then there is Derrick Rose, who is doing whatever it takes to keep the Bulls atop the Eastern Conference[1]. But this week a fifth man enters the discussion. I bring to your attention, Mr. Chris Paul.

We all already know Chris Paul is the leagues best “pure” point guard. He does exactly what you want a point guard to do. He makes everyone around him better, sets up shots perfectly, uses out-of-this-world passing angles and keeps the defense on its toes with his own shot and driving ability. In the 2007-’08 season, when he had his best statistical season of his career, he led the Hornets to the second best record in the West, falling one game behind none other than Kobe’s Lakers. And if you’re catching onto the trend here, yes, Kobe, not Chris Paul won the MVP award that year. Jump forward to 2012 and now Chris Paul and Kobe share the same building, though not on the same team like many had speculated[2]. Instead, Paul now leads a Clippers team that has been irrelevant for most of its existence, but as of Friday morning leads the Lakers by one game for the Pacific Division crown.

For those of you that have been paying attention to the divisional standings since the start of the season, you probably have noticed that the Clippers have been up on the Lakers for most of the season. A fact that may have you wondering why it has taken until this point in the season to enter Chris Paul as a serious MVP candidate, considering he is the clear leader of the revamped Clippers. To put it simply, it took some time for the dust to settle.

Okay, that wasn’t very simple, actually rather vague. The dust I’m getting at is the vetoed trade of Paul to the Lakers and the excessive excitement of the Paul/Griffin pairing that has formed the newly dubbed term “Lob City.” Thanks to the lockout it has also taken some time for the Clippers to gel, but to be fair, if it weren’t for the lockout Paul probably would not have wound up with the Clippers in the first place. Through the first nine games of the season it was unclear who was the leader of the Clippers. What was clear was that Paul was their best player, but unless you live under a rock, you know that Blake Griffin has more star appeal. Then Chris Paul missed five games and then the Clippers became his team.

In Paul’s absence the Clippers didn’t play poorly[3], but lacked a foundation to their efforts. They had to rely on shear athleticism to churn out their wins and it was clear that they missed Paul’s leadership. On January 25^th, Paul returned for Round 2 of Clippers vs. Lakers, a game that got about as physical as the NBA will allow these days, the defining moment being when Pau Gasol attempted to pat Chris Paul on the head as if to console him for the loss. Gasol’s friendly tap was met with a fierce swipe from Paul and a look that read, “You may have won the game, but the war isn’t over.”

Since that loss to the Lakers, Paul has lead to Clippers to impressive wins over the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Thunder and Jazz. In those games Paul has gone for 18 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists; 25 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists; 26 points, 14 assists; and 34 points, 5 rebounds and 11 assists. And in last night’s loss to the Nuggets, the Clippers decided to sit their starters in the fourth quarter[4]; call it a lockout loss. Since that loss to the Lakers, Paul has been averaging 23.6 points, 9.6 assists and 3.8 rebounds, a pace that could put him on track to win the MVP and put the Clippers on track to win not only the battle of the Staples Center, but also the West.

MVP Rankings

1. LeBron James- He is closing in on Kobe for the scoring title and still has a wide margin when it comes to PER. LW: 1

2. Kevin Durant- The Thunder have only lost four games on the season thanks to the consistent play of Durant. Though his overall scoring output has not been as impressive as last season, he has shown improvement on the boards, averaging 8.1 per game, a career high. In his past three games he is averaging 32 points and 13.3 rebounds. LW: 2

3. Derrick Rose- Though the Bulls lost to the Heat, he is the reason they were even in position to win. Rose made sure to take care of the Knicks last night though with his “Houdini” layup. LW: 4

4. Kobe Bryant- It’s hard to build MVP momentum when you’re last two games have been against the upstart Wolves and spiraling out of control Bobcats. A quite week for Mr. Mamba. LW: 3

5. Chris Paul- Paul is heating up and has the Clippers poised for a deep run into the playoffs. LW: 7

6. Dwight Howard- The Magic have been playing horribly, but it’s hard to ignore 20.1 points, 15.4 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. LW: 8

7. Kevin Love- His 25.3 points and 13.6 rebounds per game are arguably more valuable than Howard’s stats, sans the blocks. On a down note, the Wolves lost two of three this week. A trend that will keep them just out of the playoffs if it continues. LW: 6

8. Russell Westbrook- The Robin to Durant’s Batman if you’re into that sort of thing, Westbrook has gone for 30.6 points, 6.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds in his past three games. LW: 10

9. Paul Pierce- You might be shaking your head right now, but if you’re a Celtics fan I know you’re not. The Celtics have seemingly risen from the dead (and above .500,) winning seven of their last ten, eight of which have been without Rondo. You can thank Paul Pierce for that. LW: UR

10. Danny Granger- The Pacers are quietly still nipping at the heals of the Bulls for the Central Division crown. Granger is their leader and he deserves some credit. LW: U

[1] Except make FTs.

[2] Some guy named David Stern made sure of that.

[3] They actually won 3 of 5.

[4] Paul still had 15 points and 9 assists in 31 minutes of action.

Rookie Rankings Update (1/31): The Tipping Point

2012-01-31T10:43:00.000-05:00

Kyrie is proving he has a solid handle on the NBA game.

The Tipping Point is a book by Malcolm Gladwell that explores how little events or circumstances can have a dramatic effect on society. How certain products will seemingly become bestsellers overnight or how ideas and behaviors can “spread like viruses do.” Both Kyrie Irving and Ricky Rubio seem to be at their own personal tipping point. A point where players go from being “players” to “stars.”

In this case I am taking the term “tipping point” to mean more of a personal revelation, where both Irving and Rubio are transforming in front of our eyes from players who are supposed to be great into players who believe they are great and in fact are great. It is a point where the mental side of the game of basketball is beginning to become more valuable than the talent side of the game. Both players certainly have talent, but we’ve seen talent fail in the league over and over again. The players that rise to their expectations are the ones who have the talent and have the mental capacity to take advantage of that talent to make themselves and others around them better.

For Kyrie Irving, his tipping point may have been Sunday against the Boston Celtics. With the clock running down at the end of the fourth quarter and the Cavs down by one, Irving dribbled at the top of the key, began to drive right, took a pick at the foul line only to find himself sandwiched in a double-team. He then picked up his dribble, did a spin move into the paint to create separation between the two defenders and laid in a bucket with his left hand to give the Cavs a one-point lead with 2.6 seconds left on the clock. It would be the game winning shot.

Earlier in the season, in the Cavs’ third game, Irving found himself in a similar situation. With the game on the line the same play was called, only that game he missed. But on Sunday Irving attacked the rim with an extra purpose, not only did he have the ability to get that shot, but he believed he was supposed to hit the game winner. We all know Irving can put up numbers, but now we know he can also win games when his team needs him to.

As for Ricky Rubio, there is not a singular play in which we can look back upon to catch his tipping point, but rather a stretch of games. We’ve seen flashes of Rubio’s brilliance all season. In his third game he record his first double-double, going for 12 points and 12 assists in a two-point loss to the Miami Heat. The two games following that first double-double Rubio came back down to Earth, but then recorded his second double-double, going for 12 points and 10 assists in four-point loss to Memphis. This quickly became a trend. In the next handful of games Rubio would record a double-double in one game and in the next see a dip in his production, but in each successive round of this trend the dip in production became less and less. Then, in a stretch of three games, Rubio didn’t score in double figures or record ten-plus assists. Against the Kings he had 9 points, 8 assists; against the Pistons he had 9 points, 8 assists; against the Clippers he had 9 points, 6 assists. It brought about the question of whether Rubio is going to be only a facilitator or if he can score and facilitate. As if he knew the question was brewing in our heads, Rubio gave us an answer.

Over the past six games he has recorded double-digit assists five times with four of those games turning into double-doubles. Against the Jazz he went for 17 points and 11 assists; against he Mavs he went for 17 points and 12 assists; against the Spurs he went for 18 points and 10 assists; against the Rockets he went for 18 points and 11 assists and nearly recorded a triple-double by adding 8 rebounds as well. To me, this stretch of games displayed two things. First, Ricky Rubio can put up Chris Paul-esque numbers on a night-in, night-out basis. Two, that Ricky Rubio is not only able to put up these numbers, but he is now learning to translate those numbers into success, handily winning in that stretch against the Mavs, Spurs and Rockets; all playoff caliber teams.

At the end of the season, when we look back on the rookie campaigns of Irving and Rubio, we will turn to their tipping points and say, “that’s when he figured it out.” We will look at that game winning play against Boston as the moment when Irving proved he could be a star. We will look at the past string of double-doubles and the wins against the Mavs, Spurs and Rockets as the moment when we Rubio proved he is not just any point guard, but amongst the elite. Thus, for the first time in these rankings, we have ourselves a 1a and a 1b. With the edge going to Irving because I highly regard game winning talent.

Rookie Rankings

1a. Kyrie Irving- He is averaging 17.9 points, 4.8 assists and 3.4 rebounds and has the Cavs floating a half-game out of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. LW: 2

1b. Ricky Rubio- His numbers continue to trend upwards, more importantly they are beginning to translate into wins for the Wolves. On the season he is averaging 11.4 points, 8.9 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game. LW: 1

3. Kemba Walker- The rookie out of UCONN recorded his first triple-double of his career and only the fourth by any player this season against the Wizards on Saturday, going for 20 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists. Only problem was that the Bobcats lost…again. LW: 6

4. MarShon Brooks- After stringing together nine games of ten-plus points and even adding some rebounding to his repertoire, Brooks missed three games and then returned to score only six points. His overall resume on the season is still top-notch, averaging 14.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. LW: 3

5. Kawhi Leonard- With Manu Ginobili being out with an injury, Kawhi has been given some valuable playing time. After scoring in double figures in six straight, Kawhi cooled off for a bit. In a win against Memphis on Monday, Kawhi recorded his second double-double, going for 12 points and 10 assists. LW: 7

6. Jimmer Fredette- Jimmer has had an odd season thus far, which is why he is gracing my rookie rankings for the first time this week. After an up and down start, he has scored 20, 13, 19 and 14 points respectively in his last four games. LW: UR

7. Brandon Knight- Knight has had a great season for the Pistons, averaging 13 points, 3.5 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game. With a core of Knight and Monroe, Detroit looks to have a bright future, but that future looks like it is waiting until next season at the earliest. LW: 5

8. Norris Cole- Cole got extreme praise for scoring 20 points in his second game of the season. Since then he has been a great role player for the Heat. Against the Hornets on Monday he came off the bench for 12 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists. LW: UR

9. Iman Shumpert- Shump Shump is averaging 10.9 points, 3.2 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game. If the Knicks weren’t spiraling out of control he would be getting much more attention. LW: 4

10. Chandler Parsons- Last Wednesday against Milwaukee, Parsons went for 16 points and 7 rebounds, which could be a sign of his true potential. Over the past four games though he has cooled off. The reason he is still in the rankings? He does what is asked of him and puts team first. LW: 8

MVP Update (1/27): All Manu Ginobili's Aside

2012-01-27T12:47:00.000-05:00

Dwyane Wade's injury has cleared the way for LeBron to win his third MVP award.

There is just too much teamwork going on in the NBA right now to have a clear-cut MVP. LeBron has been playing at an elite level without Dwyane Wade, but Chris Bosh has stepped his game up to an elite level as well. Kevin Durant has the Thunder on a tear, winning ten of their last eleven games, but he is backed by the highly productive Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Kobe Bryant, clearly the alpha dog of the Lakers, was doing everything he could to win games (and was winning them,) dropping 40-plus in four straight, then he decided to play more team oriented ball and the Lakers have lost four of six. Derrick Rose missed four straight games and the Bulls won three of them handily. In the two games since he has returned the Bulls beat the Nets and then lost to the Pacers at home for the Bulls’ first home loss. And as we’ve stated in previous MVP rankings, outside of these four players, nobody really has a shot at the award.

Because of this increase in teamwork over the last week I woke this morning with the difficult task of deciding how to rank these players. Then it dawned on me that conventional basketball wisdom and statistics would not be enough to decipher who should be number one in this weeks rankings. So, with all Manu Ginobili’s[1] aside, I turned to John Hollinger’s[2] PER (player efficiency rating) rankings. To not much surprise, LeBron is leading the league PER, with a rating of 33.56.

For those of you unfamiliar with PER, it weighs player usage; true shooting percentage, turnover/assists/rebound rates, as well as estimated wins added. The best PER in league history is held by Wilt Chamberlin, who in the ’62-’63 season had a rating of 31.84. In the modern era, it is held by Jordan, who in the ’87-’88 season had a PER of 31.71, a mark LeBron nearly matched in the ’08-’09 season when he had a rating of 31.67. To put it lightly, LeBron is not only having the best season of his career, he is having the most efficient and quite possibly the best season we’ve seen in NBA history.

For some NBA fans out there it make take a dose of amnesia[3] for them to fully appreciate what LeBron is doing this season. But if you can look at LeBron objectively, it isn’t hard to see that as of today, he is the MVP.

MVP Rankings

1. LeBron James- The Heat have played better without (8-1) Dwyane Wade than with him (5-4.) LW: 1

2. Kevin Durant- Yeah, his numbers have taken a big dip this year due to the play of Russell Westbrook and James Harden, but the Thunder have the best record in the league, thanks to the leadership of Durant. LW: 4

3. Kobe Bryant- Since his 40-point outburst, Kobe has cooled off a bit and not surprisingly so have the Lakers, who have lost four of six. LW: 2

4. Derrick Rose- He was out for four games and the Bulls didn’t miss a beat. Then he returns and they have their first hiccup at home against the Pacers. LW: 3

5. Chris Bosh- Bosh hasn’t been in these rankings at all this season, so you may be surprised to find him year. If you take a look at yesterday’s column on his play during Wade’s absence, you’ll understand why I have him ranked so high. LW: UR

6. Kevin Love- The Wolves have won four of six, in large part to the dominant play of Love, including a clutch, game winning three-pointer last Friday against the Clippers. LW: 6

7. Chris Paul- The Clippers are fighting (literally) with the Lakers for the Pacific Division. Chris Paul is their leader… LW: 9

8. Dwight Howard- After winning five straight, the Magic have being playing a game of hot potato. Win one, lose one, win one, lose one. And then they squandered a 27-point lead last night against the Celtics. LW: 5

9. LaMarcus Aldridge- Portland has been inconsistent as of late, but they are beginning to get it back together. All in thanks to the leadership and play of Mr. Aldridge. LW: 8

10. Russell Westbrook: The Thunder are playing great team ball right now and it has led them to the best record in the league. Durant is their leader, but it has been a sacrifice for Westbrook to be his number two. He is rewarded this week by entering this week’s MVP rankings. LW: UR

[1] Due to injury, Manu Ginobili has only played 5 games this season, turns out he played those games exceptionally well and technically has the best PER in league, a fact we are going to ignore here.

[2] John Hollinger is a writer for ESPN, he does great work analyzing player and team statistics.

[3] The Decision being the forgotten memory

Under the Radar: "He Who Must Not Be Named"

2012-01-26T10:32:00.001-05:00

Voldemort also known as "He Who Must Not Be Named" and "The Dark Lord"

Chris Bosh, bearing a slight resemblance to "He Who Must Not Be Named"/"The Dark Lord"

Just like LeBron James, Chris Bosh took his talents to South Beach last season to team up with Dwyane Wade. A season that was plagued with a 9-win, 8-loss start, a 5-game losing streak, a non-stop barrage from the media and what wound up being a collapse in the NBA Finals at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks. For James and Wade, the debate between sports pundits and fans rallied around which player was the Batman or Robin of the Miami Heat. As for Bosh, he was continually referred to as “soft” for not putting up the same numbers as he did in Toronto[1]. The criticism was dealt out by even the most casual of fans, my girlfriend being one of them, who, during one game mid-season noticed that Bosh bares a slight resemblance to Lord Voldemort from the Harry Potter series. And in a sense, as we enter the second season of the big experiment in South Beach, Bosh has become “He Who Must Not Be Named.”[2]

In his first season with the Heat, “The Dark Lord” averaged 5.3 points and 2.5 rebounds less than he did in his last and most productive year in Toronto. For some reason it was pretty clear to critics that ‘TDL” would offer the Heat the same output he was able to provide in Toronto. This assumption entirely disregards two facts. The first being that his usage rate would take a big hit playing alongside LeBron and Wade and the second being that LeBron and Wade are two of the best rebounders that play on the wing. Translation: teamed up with LeBron and Wade, “TDL” should theoretically see a dip in his scoring and rebounding, not because of his lack of effort or play, but because he simply will have less opportunities to compile his Toronto-esque stats. And as stated above, that’s how the season played out.

By springtime last season, “The Dark Lord” went from being a part of the “Big 3,” joining both James and Wade to form a postgame triumvirate for media members, to being disbanded from the trio and claiming a solo role as James and Wade fought it out for numero uno and dos. James and Wade were then referred to as “The Big 2” and throughout the playoffs discussions focused on whether or not the two of them could bring a championship to South Beach. “TDL” at this point had become an afterthought.

This rhetoric carried on into this season as well. Once the lockout ended and the sportswriters and talking heads began making their regular season and playoff predictions, the Miami Heat were placed as favorites by many to win it all. Reasons being that LeBron and Wade would have a year of gelling under their belt, a healthy Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller, a deeper team thanks to the signings of Shane Battier and drafting of Norris Cole and the ultimate motivation being that if they didn’t win it this year, the experiment in South Beach would be deemed by many to be a bust. Yet there was little mention of “The Dark Lord.”

Meanwhile, while all this talk was going on, a few facts from the offseason went slightly under the radar. I say slightly because they were mentioned, but taken more or less with a grain of salt. To make his game a bit more versatile, “The Dark Lord” put some time in to work on his three point shot this offseason. Perhaps this was a step in the direction of a player like Dirk, who manhandled “TDL” in the Finals. On top of that, “TDL” got into the gym, added somewhere along the lines of 15 pounds of muscle, which may have been an attempt to address his being “soft” and unwillingness to play center or rebound effectively.

Now we stand 18 games into the 2011-’12 season. A season that has seen Dwyane Wade miss 9 games, including the past 6 in a row. “The Dark Lord” on the other hand has played in every game thus far. In 9 games without Wade, the Heat have 8-wins and 1-loss, including one game that was also without LeBron James. That game was against an Atlanta Hawks team that had beaten the Heat three days prior with Wade, James and “TDL” all on the court. But without Wade and James, ‘TDL” led the Heat to a 116-109 overtime win, going for 33 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks, 2 steals and a game-tying three that sent the game into overtime. In games without Wade this season, “TDL” is averaging 25.6 points per game, a whole 3.9 points more than he is averaging on the season[3].

On Tuesday night “The Dark Lord” went off again, dropping 35 points, including 17 in the 4^th quarter against a feisty Cavs team that was hungry to beat LeBron. In that game he went to the line 14 times (hit all of them) and shot 62.5 percent from the field. Then, last night, against a surprisingly competitive Pistons team, Bosh scored 27 points, shooting an astonishing 80 percent from the field. But the highlight reel still paid more attention to King James instead of “The Dark Lord.”

For whatever reason the media has decided that Chris Bosh will be “He Who Must Not Be Named” when it comes to the success of the Miami Heat. If his outstanding play continues, I expect murmurs of credit to appear in the mediasphere, perhaps even enough to consider him apart of the “Big 3” again or, in the off chance that moniker is dropped, given the recognition of being one of the league’s elite; the same reason LeBron and Wade wanted to team up with him in the first place.

[1] More emphatically, ESPN’s Skip Bayless reffered to Bosh as “Bosh Spice”

[2] If it’s OK with everybody else, I’m going to occasionally refer to Bosh as “The Dark Lord”

[3] This year Bosh is averaging 21.7 ppg, a three-point jump from last year.

Rookie Rankings Update (1/23): Who is Chandler Parsons?

2012-01-23T11:27:00.001-05:00

Chandler Parsons, where did you come from?

If you scroll down to the eighth spot in this week’s rankings, you’ll see a new name. A name you didn’t see hyped up in the draft and possibly may have never heard of. But this player is making waves for the Houston Rockets. His name is Chandler Parsons.

It is a common misconception that top-level talent is only available in the first round. Players taken in the latter part of the first round and all of the second round are often considered draft-day fodder; another trade chip for a general manager to toss around. But if you look through the past handful of drafts, you’ll notice that this is far from the truth. Here are just several standouts who were selected in the 2^nd round: Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, Monta Ellis, Luis Scola, Manu Ginobili, Marc Gasol and Steve Kerr. And those names are just a small sample. It seems that each year there are a handful of 2^nd round standouts that wind up having lengthy and productive NBA careers. This year it looks as though Chandler Parsons is a true 2^nd round steal; the Rockets drafted him 38^th overall.

So far this season Chandler Parsons has averaged 6.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Solid production for a rookie, but what’s more impressive is that his production has been trending upwards with each additional game he has played. He started the season finding it hard to get minutes and slowly has earned himself playing time. The Rockets currently find themselves on a six game winning streak, large in part to the play of role players such as Parsons. Against the Kings he went for 11 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block and 3 steals; against the Wizards he nearly got a double-double, going for 8 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks.

It is a bit perplexing as to how players such as Parsons are overlooked by so many teams and wind up having so much value. That’s where Rockets’ GM Daryl Morey comes in. Morey is known for using advanced stats to assemble his teams, using a sort of “moneyball” approach. Throughout his tenure as Rockets’ GM he has consistently turned seemingly nothing into something. The Rockets have had a winning record in each of Morey’s first four seasons with the team, including two playoff appearances and one playoff series win. During this same stretch Morey traded Tracy McGrady and lost Yao Ming to an early retirement. In return he received sharpshooter Kevin Martin, a slew of role players and a large amount of cap room.

I suppose the lesson to be learned from this is that we currently view the draft in a very close-minded fashion. Assuming all the talent will be taken in the lottery. But even from this years draft alone, where we have players such as Parsons and Norris Cole (taken in the late first round by the Miami Heat) making huge impacts for their teams, we may want to revise our approach to draft-day analysis and our rookie projections. For every lottery pick bust, there has been a 2^nd draft steal. Don’t believe the hype.

Rookie Rankings

1. Ricky Rubio- Rubio continues to improve; now averaging 11 points, 8.3 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 2.4 steals per game. All while leading the Wolves to wins in four of their last six. LW: 1

2. Kyrie Irving- Irving is leading all rookies in scoring and proving he was worth the number one overall selection in last year’s draft. Unfortunately, the Cavs have dropped four of their last five. LW: 2

3. MarShon Brooks- Early in the year I criticized MarShon for not being able to contribute more than just a jump shot. I’m not sure if he reads this column, but he has finally started to fill that stat sheet. On the year he is averaging 15.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game. LW: 5

4. Iman Shumpert- Shump continues to play excellent ball for the Knicks, averaging 12.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.6 steals per game. The only problem is that the Knicks are on a six game slide. LW: 3

5. Brandon Knight- Knight has been lights out for the Pistons and this finally translated to an impressive win over the Blazers on Saturday. With Knight and Greg Monroe paired up, the Pistons look to have a bright future. On the season Knight is averaging 12.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists. LW: 6

6. Kemba Walker- The former UConn guard continues to put up the numbers but the Bobcats just cannot find a way to win. He’s going to be the building block and the future of this franchise as long as he can stay mentally tough through these growing pains. LW: 7

7. Kawhi Leonard- With Manu Ginobili being out, Kawhi has recieved valable playing time and has not disappointed. After scoring 10-plus six games in a row, he has cooled off a bit. On the season he is averaging 7.8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 0.9 assists per game. LW: 4

8. Chandler Parsons- His production has largely fluctuated with his playing time, but on the year Parsons is averaging 6.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game. LW: NR

9. Derrick Williams: The number two overall pick didn’t make the rankings last week due to a drop in his production. That drop was largely due to a drop in his playing time. Then, on Saturday, he gets 28 minutes of solid playing time and goes for 15 points and 8 rebounds. Somebody in Minny needs to make up their mind about this kid. LW: UR

10. Tristan Thompson- The fourth overall pick finds himself riding the bottom of these rankings for the second straight week. He has begun to rebound more consistently. If only he could do the same offensively he would begin to rise in these rankings. On the year he is averaging 8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game. LW: 10

MVP Update (1/20): Consistency is Key

2012-01-20T12:44:00.000-05:00

It takes two to tango, but LeBron looks to be a step ahead of Kobe at the moment.

I know it’s early in the season, but so far the MVP race has been a wild game of musical chairs, more specifically, the top four spots in my rankings. At this point, barring some wild chain of events[1] the award is going to be won by four candidates, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose or Kevin Durant. Outside of those four players nobody really has a shot. But within this selected group of elite players, each one has made their case, both for and against, winning this year’s award.

Let’s first start with Kevin Durant. Led by Durant’s scoring, the Thunder got off to a hot start, winning their first five games to start the season. Durant scorched the league by scoring 30-plus points in his first four games and the only reason he didn’t in the fifth game is because the Thunder were manhandling the Suns and Durant only logged 26 minutes. This stretch was highlighted in game four when, less than a second after Vince Carter nailed an improbable three to give the Mavs a one-point lead, Durant took an inbounds pass five feet outside the three-point line and nailed the game winner. It was clear he was in the zone. But since that hot stretch Durant has cooled off. The Thunder are still playing great with only three losses on the season, but the winning as of late has had less to do with Durant’s scoring or late game heroics and more to do with the teams supporting cast of Russell Westbrook and James Harden.

Next is last year’s MVP Derrick Rose. Rose broke out last season averaging careers highs in points (25,) assists (7.7,) and rebounds (4.1) per game en route to leading the Bulls to the leagues best record. As of today, the Bulls still have the leagues best record and are also allowing only 85.8 points per game, also good for first in the league. But, as for Rose, there has been a significant shift in his production. He is averaging nearly five points less per game; meanwhile his assists are at a new career high of 8.7 per game. It seems as though he is making an attempt to become more of a “true” point guard and a facilitator. His season has been highlighted by hitting the game winner against the Lakers on Christmas Day, torching the Clippers for 29 points, 16 assists and 8 rebounds and dropping 17 in the 4^th quarter alone to steal a game from the Atlanta Hawks. All of the happened within the first six games of the season. Now we sit 16 games in and Derrick Rose has missed three of those games and disappeared in another versus the Hawks in which he only scored 8 points. And in the games he has missed, the Bulls have two wins and one loss. Definitely their most valuable player, but as of now, not the MVP.

If you haven’t suffered from amnesia yet, you will remember in last week’s MVP column I gave an enormous amount of praise to Kobe Bryant. At that point Kobe had logged two of what would eventually become four straight 40-point games. Something we haven’t seen since the last time Kobe did so…several years ago. Perhaps I jumped the gun, but it looked like old Kobe was back, and maybe he is, but in the two games following that run he has gone for 14 points in a three point win against the Mavericks[2] and 24 points[3] last night in a huge loss to the Miami Heat. Kobe currently has the Lakers tied with the Clippers for the lead in the Pacific Division and leads the league in scoring[4], two facts that make him a prime candidate for the award. If only it weren’t for the player who is second (barely) in scoring thus far throughout the season.

After his past two performances LeBron James once again has me convinced he is the MVP of the league. With Dwyane Wade missing now his fifth game this season, LeBron has had a chance to prove that the Heat are his team and they will go as far as he will take them. On Tuesday night against the Spurs the Heat found themselves in a large hole at halftime, down 63-49. But in the second half the Heat erupted, outscoring the Spurs 72-35 and wound up winning handily, 120-98. LeBron led the way in the second half run, and wound up with 33 points, 5 rebounds and 10 assists. Then, last night, against Kobe’s Lakers, LeBron was in control again, going for 31 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 blocks and 4 steals, leading the Heat to a 98-87 victory, a score that doesn’t fully represent how badly the Heat beat the Lakers. And this isn’t the first time this season LeBron has done this. In the first game of the season, a rematch against the defending champion Mavericks, he dropped 37 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists. Days later against the Bobcats he went for 35 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists followed by an encore performance against the Wolves when he dropped 34 points, 8 rebounds and 10 assists. Then he made fools of the upstart Pacers going for 33 points, 8 rebounds and 13 assists. And it was of no surprise to anyone when he got the Nets for 32 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists. On the season LeBron is averaging 29.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 0.8 blocks and 2 steals per game. Out of all four of the top candidates for the award, he has been the most consistent and if you look at his numbers, the most impressive.

MVP Rankings

1. LeBron James- The number one spot in this week’s rankings was up for grabs last night when the Heat faced off against the Lakers. LeBron showed up. LW: 3

2. Kobe Bryant- Dropping 40 four games straight is impressive. A little less though when it’s followed up by 14 points against the Mavs and a relative no-show against the Heat. LW: 1

3. Derrick Rose- He’s been out the past couple of games, but the Bulls do hold the best record in the league. LW: 2

4. Kevin Durant- As of right now, it does not look as though KD will lead the league in scoring a third season in a row. The past few wins have been accented by major support from Russell Westbrook. And after losing by three to the lowly Wiz-Kidz, KD has only been hurting his candidacy the past couple of weeks. LW: 4

5. Dwight Howard- D12 is averaging an astronomical 20.1 points, 15.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game and he has the Magic only a half-game back in the Southeast. LW: 5

6. Kevin Love- As I stated in last week’s rankings, once Kevin Love gets the Wolves to win games he will move up some spots. They’ve won three of four. Oh, and by the way, Love is averaging 25.2 points, 14.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. LW: 9

7. Dirk Nowitzki- His numbers are still down, but he is the leader of the defending champs and has done a solid job turning their slow start around. The Mavs now sit only 1-1/2 games back from the Spurs in the Southwest. LW: 6

8. LaMarcus Aldridge- The Blazers have hit a rough patch the past five games, winning only one of them. But, three of those four games were decided by three points or less. Aldridge is the leader, he gets the street cred. LW: 8

9. Chris Paul- He has missed the last three games and the Clippers have gone 2-1. That’s largely in part to the influence Paul’s presence has had on the development of this young team. The Clips sit tied for the Pacific Division lead with the Lakers. LW: 7

10. Carmelo Anthony- The Knicks have lost four in a row and using the word “lost” is a bit of an understatement. Melo has always been a scoring machine, but now he needs to be a leader. Without Chauncey Billups around to handle those duties, the Knicks look doomed. LW: 10

[1] Such as Kevin Love skyrocketing the Wolves to win their division, LBJ, KB, KD and DR getting injured or kidnapped for the rest of the season or Melo and the Knicks finding an identity.

[2] Thanks to not Kobe’s, but Derrick Fisher’s game winning three.

[3] About 10 of which came in garbage time.

[4] Kobe is averaging 30.4 ppg.

Surprise! The Rebirth of the 76ers

2012-01-20T10:00:00.000-05:00

A bit of a disappointment last year, Evan Turner is slowly making his strides in his sophomore campaign.

Close your eyes for a moment. Except don’t because I want you to keep reading. Let’s start this over.

I would like to describe to you a team. Not just any team, but a team that was more or less unimpressive throughout most of last season and in all reality has been just a blip on the radar screen since the 2003-‘04 season. A team that managed to squeak into the Eastern Conference Playoffs last year with the seventh seed only to become the first victim of the Miami Heat’s “Big 3.” Though in all fairness they played the Heat close and even managed to win one game. This is a team that has made no big offseason acquisitions. The last two important moves happened two years ago when they drafted the so far unimpressive Evan Turner with the 2^nd pick and hired Doug Collins as their coach. This is a team that has no MVP candidates, players scoring over 20 points per game and most likely won’t feature any all-stars. This is a team that is currently leading the Atlantic Division with a 10-win and 4-loss record. This is your 2011-‘12 Philadelphia 76ers.

Before the season started I doubt anyone saw this coming. If the Boston Celtics were going to be dethroned from their perch atop the Atlantic Division it was pretty evident that it would be at the hands of the New York Knicks, the New Jersey Nets[1] or finally old age would catch up to the Celtics. Well for those of you waiting for Boston’s Big 3 to collapse from playing too much basketball, your wish has been granted; only the reward was not handed down to New York Knicks or New Jersey Nets[2], but rather the perennially irrelevant Philadelphia 76ers.

When I call the Philadelphia 76ers perennially irrelevant what I really mean is mediocre. That’s because in the NBA you can be relevant in two ways; winning games and going deep into the playoffs or by losing them and getting top draft picks. Over the past several years the 76ers haven’t had much luck with either category. And in 2010, when they stumbled upon the second pick in the lottery, they drafted Evan Turner, who thus far has not turned out to be a bust or a star. The 76ers have been the type of team that barely makes or misses the playoffs, otherwise known as basketball purgatory[3]. So why all of the sudden do they look poised to claim their division title and land a top seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs?

I turn your attention to Coach Doug Collins. It may have taken all of last year for him to get his system set, but it’s very clear as to what Collins’ philosophy is: defense and teamwork. Currently the 76ers are allowing only 87.4 points per game, good for second in the league and scoring 101 points per game, good for third in the league, all while lacking a player that scores 20-plus points or an all-star. The team features seven players scoring 10 points or more and one more averaging just a shade under. That equals an eight-man rotation, which is often considered to be what is needed to have success in the NBA.

The rotation includes Andre Iguodala (14.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 4.2 apg,) Jrue Holiday (14.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.4 apg,) Lou Williams (15.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.6 apg,) Spencer Hawes (10.4 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.8 apg,) Elton Brand (10.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.6 apg,) Thaddeus Young (12.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 0.9 apg,) Jodie Meeks (8.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.9 apg,) and the aforementioned 2^nd overall pick Evan Turner (10.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.9 apg.) On paper this team looks eerily reminiscent of the 2001-’08 Detroit Pistons, a team that had leaders but didn’t really have an alpha dog. For those of you familiar with “the secret”[4] this team looks to have it.

Prior to the start of the lockout-shortened season it was unclear if experience or youth would prevail. As of right now it is looking as though the teams with the freshest legs are outlasting the veterans, the most polarizing example being the struggling Boston Celtics and the thriving 76ers. Aside from their exceptional teamwork and defense, the 76ers can add youth to their list of advantages. The average age of the 76er’s roster is 25.5, meaning that a majority of the team is either in or entering their prime. As for the Celtics, the average age on their team is 30.2; almost a full five years older than the 76ers, meaning a majority of their players are exiting their prime.

But though the 76ers have the age advantage now, it may come back to haunt them in the playoffs. Older, more experienced teams usually excel over younger teams in the playoffs due to their knowledge of the game and ability to handle high-pressure situations. If the 76ers can keep their core together for a couple of years and become battle tested in the playoffs, I think they have a legitimate shot at winning a title down the road. Though perhaps in this season youth will not only prevail in the regular season, but also in the playoffs, leaving the 76ers with a window to do some serious damage right now.

[1] You’d have to be stretching for this one and praying for Dwight Howard to get traded to the Nets ASAP.

[2] In fact somehow the Nets have made out worse than anyone in the Atlantic, sitting at an abysmal 3 wins and 11 losses, not acquiring Dwight Howard and most likely driving Deron Williams out of town.

[3] For other examples see Pacers, Indiana or Rockets, Houston.

[4] See Simmons, Bill; Book of Basketball.

Rookie Rankings Update (1/16): Year of the Point Guard

2012-01-16T11:22:00.001-05:00

Rubio (right) is edging out Irving (center) for this year's ROY.

Six. That’s how many point guards cracked this weeks Top Ten Rookie Rankings. Last week’s rankings praised the first impressions of Ricky Rubio, but neglected to highlight the overall play of all of the point guards in this year’s rookie class. That’s why I am declaring this year’s class as The Year of the Point Guard. But as of right now, despite the overall dominance of these rookie point guards, the Rookie of the Year award has clearly become a two-man race between Ricky Rubio and Kyrie Irving.

Rubio has been nothing short of sensational; averaging 11 points, 4.1 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 2 steals per game. He has logged five double-doubles and on Saturday had arguably his best game of the season, going for 18 points, 12 assists, 4 rebounds and 5 steals in a two-point loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Rubio is showing an elite ability to control the floor. His court vision and passing abilities are rare talents that look to be ingrained in his soul. His level of play has earned him more playing time and as the season rolls on I expect those minutes to translate into more wins for the Wolves.

As for Kyrie Irving, my apologies for not showing you more love. I still have Rubio ranked above Irving at this point, but Irving has gone on a tear scoring 20-plus points in his last four games. He leads rookies in scoring, averaging 17 points per game, coupled with 3.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per contest. More than that, he has singlehandedly turned the lowlife Cavs (5-6) into a respectable team. If the season were to end today the Cavs would be an eight seed in the East. Considering the city of Cleveland is only a year and a half removed from LeBron’s “Decision,” the fan base should be grateful to have had such a swift turnaround for a team that looked destined to hang in the East’s cellar for the next couple of years.

Rookie Rankings

1. Ricky Rubio- Five double-doubles, season highs of 14 assists, 18 points, 6 rebounds and 5 steals. Rubio is showing he has it all and is the front runner for ROY. LW: 1

2. Kyrie Irving- The number one pick is so far proving his worth, turning the dismal Cavs into a respectable team. After scoring 20-plus four games in a row, he is really a 1b to Rubio. LW: 2

3. Iman Shumpert- Off all the rookies, Shumpert has perhaps the most pressure on him. He is playing in New York City, was forced into a starting role early due to the Knick’s lack of depth at the point guard position and has already bounced back from his first minor injury. Despite being placed on such a grand stage, Shumpert has proven he can handle being an NBA point guard. Thus far he is averaging 11.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.3 steals per game. LW: 5

4. Kawhi Leonard- The Spurs were slow unleashing Kawhi and giving him minutes. Then Manu Ginobili broke his hand and Kawhi was given the starting role. Since last Sunday at Oklahoma City Kawhi has been getting 30-plus minutes per game. This has translated into him logging his first double-double and scoring eleven points or more in every game since. Once again, the Spurs scouts have found what looks to be another draft day steal. LW: UR

5. MarShon Brooks- Brooks is showing he can shoot, but that’s about it. He did have his first double-double last Monday against Atlanta, going for 19 points and 10 rebounds, but as for now that looks like an aberration. In time I expect Brooks to become more of an all-around player, but his shooting alone will give him a lengthy NBA career. LW: 3

6. Brandon Knight- Unfortunately for Brandon Knight he is playing for the Detroit Pistons. Fortunately though, he is proving that the Pistons can build around him. Knight has slowly earned more minutes and has become more consistent with the playing time. On the season he is averaging 11.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3 assists per game. LW: UR

7. Kemba Walker- Walker logged his season high of 23 points in a win against Golden State on Saturday. The problem is, he is so inconsistent he is only averaging 11 per game. Which, still isn’t that bad. His ceiling is going to be determined by how consistent he can become. LW: 6

8. Markieff Morris- Morris got his first double-double of the season last Sunday against the Bucks going for 13 points and 10 rebounds. He is proving to be more consistent as the season moves on and could be a double-double candidate by the end of the season. LW: 7

9. Norris Cole- Cole started off the season on fire and has since cooled off. He is still filling a major need for the Heat and averaging 9.8 points, 3.3 assists and 1.8 rebounds per game. He will be the starter next season at the latest. LW: 4

10. Tristan Thompson- The fourth pick in the draft has yet to record his first double-double, but has slowly become more consistent on the boards. If Thompson can gel with Kyrie Irving, the Cavs will have something brewing for years to come. LW: 9

Friday MVP Update: Most Valuable Mamba

2012-01-13T10:15:00.001-05:00

Kobe found his ups again...look out NBA.

The Black Mamba strikes again. As stated in yesterday’s column, Kobe has managed to find the fountain of youth. Somehow he has harnessed physical abilities that he hasn’t had in years and as always, with another year under his belt comes another year of basketball knowledge to use at his disposal amongst his youthful, inexperienced peers. All this praise and I’m not even a fan of Kobe. That’s how impressive Kobe has been after the first twelve games of the season.

In his last two games Kobe has scored 40 and 48 points respectively. After starting the season with two losses Kobe has led the Lakers to win eight out of their last ten games. He is averaging more assists, rebounds and blocks then last year and leading the league in scoring. This is a Kobe of old. And as such, with the Lakers atop the Pacific division and only two games back from being atop the Western Conference, it does not look as if Kobe is fading anytime soon.

Begrudgingly, I have been forced to rank Kobe number one in this weeks MVP rankings. When he is his Most Valuable Mamba (MVM) he is also the MVP in the league. If he can sustain this level of play throughout the season I can’t see a reason why he couldn’t claim his second MVP award.

Following Kobe in the rankings is Derrick Rose, who, despite seeing a drop in numbers from his MVP season last year, is leading an even more defensively dominant Bulls team. LeBron comes in third this week. Even though he is still putting up numbers, LeBron isn’t doing it when it matters at the end of games and it has cost the Heat their last two. Yeah, it’s just the regular season, but it’s about time for LeBron to close games out and to do it consistently.

MVP Rankings

1. Kobe Bryant- The Black Mamba is leading the league in scoring and has the Lakers trending towards the best record in the league. In a year when we all thought we’d seen him fade a bit due to the mileage he has put onto his body, he is putting together an impressive resume for this years award.

2. Derrick Rose- The Bulls (10-2) hold the best record in the Eastern Conference largely due to the leadership of D-Rose. His scoring is down this season but his assist numbers are up. To put this into perspective, he is becoming more of a true point guard, doing a better job at facilitating and making the players around him better. An adequate exchange for the drop in points I’d say.

3. LeBron James- LeBron is averaging a mind boggling 29 points, 7.5 assists, 8.5 rebounds and 2 steals per game. He would easily still be atop my rankings had he closed out the past two games against the Clippers and Warriors. Instead, he and the Heat showed glimpses of what hobbled them last season; being able to keep the foot on the gas in the 4^th in order to close out games that were already won in the 3^rd. Hopefully this eternal disappearing act is just that, an act.

4. Kevin Durant- After two tough losses to Dallas and Portland to ring in the New Year, Durant has led the Thunder on a five game win streak. They share the best record in the league with the Bulls, but Durant has been getting more side support from Westbrook and Harden as of late, which is why he has dipped in my rankings. This isn’t much of a surprise considering the layout of the season, but KD’s ability to win the MVP will hinge on if he can claim his third scoring title and lead the Thunder to the best record in the league.

5. Dwight Howard- D12 set a record for FT attempts in an NBA regular season game last night. To bad he only hit half of them. Still, he put up an astronomical 45 points, 23 rebounds, 3 assist, 2 block and 4 steal performance in a win against the Warriors last night. This is the type of performance that Howard should be able to produce on a weekly basis. If he could only become more consistent offensively and hit more FTs he could find his way to an MVP award. On a side note, he quietly has the Magic tied with the Heat for the Southeast Division lead.

6. Dirk Nowitzki- After dropping the first three games this season, Dirk has led the Mavs to win six of their last eight. His numbers are down from last year and that is probably due to some fatigue from the championship run. Still, he is the leader of the team and my guess is he is saving some gas in the tank for the playoffs.

7. Chris Paul- Lob City has won four of five including Wednesday nights trumping of a healthy Miami Heat. He is the clear leader of this team and is making those around him better. The Clippers will get better throughout the season as they learn how to gel on the fly.

8. LaMarcus Aldridge- He has the Blazers amongst the Western Elite and on the heals of the Thunder for the Northwest Division lead. Still thriving off his late season surge from last year, Aldridge looks like he is here to stay amongst the leagues elite.

9. Kevin Love- I know his team’s record isn’t impressive, but their play has improved and Kevin Love’s numbers are dominant. Averaging 23.6 points and 14.7 rebounds per game, Love will rise in these rankings once the Wolves start putting together more wins.

10. Carmelo Anthony- Melo is one of the best scorers in the game today. Unfortunately the Knicks haven’t heard of defense and have been hovering around mediocrity in the standings. He rolled his ankle last night against the Grizzlies. Hopefully he doesn’t miss much time.

Finding the Fountain of Youth: Kobe is back...for now.

2012-01-12T11:06:00.000-05:00

The Black Mamba has his swagger back.

I hate you Dr. Peter Wehling. But at the same time I love you. Somehow you have managed to direct Kobe Bryant’s knee to the fountain of youth; an incident that has also propelled the Lakers back towards the top of the Western Conference. This revival has Kobe looking like a frontrunner for the MVP and places that elusive sixth ring, the one to tie Mr. Michael Jordan, back into the window. Even in this shortened, gauntlet of a season, it is looking possible that Kobe and the Lakers are still here.

After last seasons drop in production I expected to see Kobe fall off even more this season. Last season Kobe averaged his least amount of points since the ’03-’04 season; his least amount of minutes, rebounds, and steals since his second season; his least amount of assists per game since the ’05-’06 season; and the least amount of blocks per game in his career. To add to his decline, he also led the Lakers to a second round sweep at the hands of the eventual champion Dallas Mavericks. At the end of the ’10-’11 season it looked as though age was finally catching up to Kobe.

As the lockout lingered and the chance of an NBA season seemed minimal, Kobe’s title window shrunk along with his shot at climbing higher on the all-time scoring list and potentially catching Kareem at the top. But reports began coming in concerning a controversial knee surgery that Kobe was undergoing in Germany at the hands of Dr. Peter Wehling. Something called “a derivation of platelet-rich plasma therapy.” The process involves taking plasma out of the body, rolling it around in a centrifuge, isolating platelets, and then injecting those platelets at the point of injury. Then the lockout ended, the season started, and the surgery worked.

Twelve games into the season Kobe is playing 36.8 minutes per game, nearly three more than last year. He is averaging nearly 6 rebounds per game, something he hasn’t done since the ’07-’08 season. He is averaging 5.7 assists per game, something he hasn’t done since the ’04-’05 season. He already has almost half as many blocks this season as he did in all 82 games last season. Most impressive of all, he has scored forty points in back-to-back games and leads the league in scoring, averaging 30.3 points per game; his most since the ’06-’07 season.

Individual accolades aside, Kobe’s rejuvenation has also bolstered the Lakers back into contention. After starting off the season with two tough losses to the Bulls and Kings, the Lakers have since won eight out of ten games, with the two losses coming to formidable opponents in Denver and Portland. Kobe has led the Lakers (8-4) back to the top of the Pacific Division and two games out of the top seed in the Western Conference.

Of course I may be jumping the gun on this. Kobe, being one of the all-time greats may just be getting hot for a week and maybe this tails off in a few days. Perhaps age has caught up with him and this is the last glimpse of the old Kobe we will get. The Lakers’ schedule will get noticeably harder in the coming days when they have to face (in order) the Clippers, Heat, Magic, Pacers, Clippers, Bucks and the upstart Wolves in a span of 16 days; a list of teams that includes some of the top defenses and most explosive offenses in the league. If Kobe can hold up this production over that stretch I might be willing to go all-in on him winning the MVP and leading the Lakers out of the West one more time. But as for now, we all must wait.

In Retrospect: Does Deron Williams miss Jerry Sloan?

2012-01-09T11:37:00.001-05:00

For Deron Williams, almost everyday is like groundhog day in New Jersey.

To put it lightly, Deron Williams must have really wanted out of Utah last season. As with most superstar players we assume their reason for leaving a team has to do with going from a smaller market to a bigger market. This gains them more exposure, allowing them to expand their brand. For example, like being sent from Utah to New Jersey[1]. Heading to a larger market also often includes playing for a team that can spend more money on players[2] and hire better coaches[3], which usually translates into more wins and ideally a championship[4]. As of right now the Utah Jazz, in the midst of a rebuilding phase, have five wins and three losses. The Deron Williams led New Jersey Nets, in the midst of a championship run[5], have two wins and seven losses. Again, Deron Williams must have really wanted out of Utah.

While in Utah and playing under Jerry Sloan, Deron helped lead the Jazz to a .500 record in his rookie season, a Western Conference Finals loss to the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs in his second season, followed by three more playoff appearances; all which were trumped by the Lakers, who went to the finals all three years, winning two championships[6]. Deron also claimed both his All-Star selections and was on his way to his best season yet last year, averaging 21 points and 9.7 assists per game, while playing for Jerry Sloan. Then 54 games into last season, Jerry Sloan quit.

The significance of Jerry Sloan quitting over Jerry Sloan retiring is important here. Had the Jazz, who at the time sported a 31-23 record, been on their way to an embarrassment of a season, Sloan’s exit would have made sense. Had Coach Sloan finished the season and decided he had a solid 23-year run with the Jazz[7] and, at 68 years of age, would rather relax, that would be understandable. The man had deservedly earned the right to call it a day whenever he wanted. But this was not the case. This was not a retirement, thought over thoroughly in the off-season after analyzing where his team was. This was an act of desperation, from a coach who never once in his career would be described as desperate. Deron Williams drove this man out of Utah.

In the reports following Sloan’s exit most speculated that Deron and Sloan had been clashing for a while and that Sloan felt like he had lost control of the team. But in the press conference announcing Sloan’s resignation, both Sloan and the Jazz made note that Sloan was leaving on his own terms and it had nothing to do with the players. Which is probably the same reason why assistant coach Phil Johnson, who had been with the Jazz since 1988, when Sloan became head coach, was resigning as well. A week and a half later, Deron Williams was sent packing out of Utah and was on his way to the 17-40 New Jersey Nets.

Deron claims he found out about the trade on Sportscenter and Kevin O’Connor, GM of the Jazz, claims that the Jazz made the trade because they were uncertain of Deron’s commitment going forward. You really can’t blame the Jazz for making the trade because as far as organizations go, they have been on of the most upstanding ones in the history of the league. Few coaches last 23 years with one team, few Hall of Fame duos[8] play next to each other for 18 years, and few organizations are able to rebuild on the fly as well as the Jazz have. But as for you Deron Williams, you played your cards wrong.

Instead of playing for a Hall of Fame coach on a respectable basketball team in a conference that is finally seeing it’s aging stars decline, you were sent off to the embarrassing New Jersey Nets, a team with a lackluster supporting cast in the newly stacked Eastern Conference. Instead of continuing to improve you are now averaging less assists than you did in your second season as a pro and scoring your least amount of points since your third season[9]. For a player looking to score a big contract, you have found yourself in one of the most unenviable positions possible. And I bet, deep down inside, you miss Jerry Sloan.

In the end, it might all work out. Perhaps Dwight Howard decides New Jersey/Brooklyn is the place for him and he teams up with you. Perhaps you leave the Nets and sign with another major market team in hopes of finding a championship. Perhaps you even find that championship. But if I had to bet on it, I doubt you find yourself a situation as fortunate as the one you were drafted into in Utah.

[1] If we’re being fair, which we aren’t, New Jersey is supposed to turn into Brooklyn at some point in the Deron Williams saga.

[2] The Nets have $60 million on the books this season, the Jazz $50.8

[3] Jerry Sloan coached the Utah Jazz for 23 years and is in the Hall of Fame; Avery Johnson, in his 6^th season as an NBA coach, has his resume highlighted by an NBA Finals collapse by the Dallas Mavericks after they were up 2-0 on the Heat and losing to the 8^th seeded Warriors in the first round of the 2007 playoffs.

[4] As long as the next three best players on that team are not an injured Brook Lopez, Kris Humphries and a rookie scoring 14 points per game.

[5] As proclaimed by new owner Mikhail Prokhorov

[6] Bad luck for Deron, I suppose

[7] Which, for those of you who missed him coach Stockton and Malone, he did

[8] For those of you who don’t know, that would be John Stockton and Karl Malone

[9] In his seventh NBA season Deron is averaging 17.3 points and 6.9 assists per game.

Rookie Rankings: Rubio Stealing the Show

2012-01-07T16:52:00.000-05:00

Look Ma, no hands!

It’s early Christmas morning and you’ve woken up at 6 am, a whole hour before your parents will even wake and two hours before they will be finished wrapping your last minute gifts. Finally, your father yells up the stairs letting you and your brothers know that it’s okay to come down and open your presents. You shake with excitement, your mouth wide with a grin as you giggle uncontrollably because you are certain that the gift you’ve been waiting for is under the tree; a brand new Xbox 360, with a copy of Madden ‘12 to boot. Only when you open your gifts you find out that your parents went out and bought a refurbished original Xbox and a copy of Madden ‘06.

Your parents respond by saying that it’s the best they could do within their budget and from the research they did, was a comparable option. Then you inform them of the flaws in the original Xbox, how it will probably overheat and that your favorite player, Matthew Stafford, wasn’t even in the league in 2006, a fact that numbs your enjoyment of the game. This is similar to the relationship fans have with NBA general managers.

Every year when the NBA draft rolls around fans have an idea of which player their team should draft. This is hardly ever an opinion based on logic, but rather heavily influenced by the emotions of March Madness and whatever insider information they have gained from ESPN.com. Then draft night comes and though the player they had hoped would be on the board isn’t, the fan has made up their mind that the player their team will wind up drafting is in fact the best possible option and of All-Star caliber. The player survives training camp and makes his way into the opening day rotation.

Come opening day the fan finally gets a glimpse at what he has been waiting for. Off the charts athletic ability, the same flair and swagger that was witnessed months ago in March Madness, only much like unwrapping presents on Christmas morning, the fan is disappointed. He got the refurbished version of what was supposed to be the next Bill Russell only it turned out being Greg Oden’s failing knees.

In the following days the fan falls into a state of denial and becomes delirious, bombarding their teams GM with comments proclaiming that anybody would have known to take Stephen Curry over Johnny Flynn or that Kevin Durant was the sure thing and Greg Oden was certain to collapse. They struggle to make it through the season as their favorite team continues their yearly ride into the lottery with the hopes of drafting the next MJ, fully knowing that the next MJ will not be walking through the door.

Though it’s too early to fully tell how good (or bad) this years class of NBA rookies will turn out, one thing is for certain, the Timberwolves chose correctly in 2009, taking Ricky Rubio with the 5^th pick in the draft. The pick was highly scrutinized for several reasons. The first being that many did not believe Rubio would want to play in Minnesota and would hold out for a larger market. The second, some scouts were unsure of how Rubio’s game would translate from Europe to America. And the biggest critique of all was the fact that the Wolves took three, yes, THREE, point guards in the first round.

Rubio wound up holding out, playing in Europe for two more seasons. In the meantime his production worsened overseas and the odds of him jumping the pond seemed like they were slimming. After dealing Ty Lawson to the Nuggets and giving Johnny Flynn his fair shot, space had opened up for Rubio to make his mark. And so, this past offseason, Rubio finally settled on a contract with the Timberwolves and would make his rookie debut in this lockout shortened 2011-12 NBA season of ours.

Only seven games into the season, Rubio has shown why the Wolves took the risk of drafting him, even if it meant waiting a few years for him to arrive. Rubio is averaging 9.4 points, 6.7 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game, showing off a great shot selection and top-notch court vision. He is a player that is going to transform the fortunes of the Wolves for years to come. And though other players are looking strong out of the gate, I have Rubio in the lead for rookie of the year.

Rookie Rankings

1. Ricky Rubio- Rubio’s best line of the season thus far came in a two-point loss to the Miami Heat where he went for 12 points, 6 rebounds and 12 assists.

2. Kyrie Irving- Irving has quickly turned the Cavs from doormats to respectable. He has shown to be consistent thus far, averaging 14.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game.

3. MarShon Brooks- Possibly the only positive thing that has happened to the Nets this season is MarShon Brooks. The rookie has scored over 20 twice and is averaging 14 points per game.

4. Norris Cole- In what might be the steal of the draft, Cole has shown that he has serious clutch gene and has calmed Miami’s problems at PG. So far this season he is averaging 11.1 points, 1.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game.

5. Iman Shumpert- He has the potential to climb to the top of this list and if it weren’t for an injury that cost him a handful of games, he might be the best rookie so far this season. In the three games he has played, Shumpert is averaging 13 points, 4 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game.

6. Kemba Walker- Walker has had some inconsistencies thus far in his rookie campaign. When he gets to the foul line he is able to put up points. This season he is averaging 10.6 points, 2.4 rebounds and 3 assists per game.

7. Markieff Morris- Morris is showing to be the better twin so far this season, averaging 9.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.1 assists. Once he becomes more consistent, his stats will dance with a double-double every night.

8. Derrick Williams- His numbers suffer a bit from how involved he is in the offense, but he is making the most of what he is being offered, averaging 7.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 0.6 assists per game. Once he earns the minutes over Michael Beasley, we will see the complete package.

9. Tristan Thompson- He has shown promise on the boards, but looks to be a work in progress offensively. What’s most impressive though is his ability to block shots. 7.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.3 assists and 1.4 blocks per game.

10. Jimmer Fredette- Jimmer-time hasn’t quite made an impact on the NBA scene yet, showing up as more of a hot and cold player. His season high is 17, but he is averaging 9.4 points, 1.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.

Friday MVP Update (1/6)

2012-01-06T11:52:00.001-05:00

LeBron has risen once again and the Heat are following his lead.

If it was last Thursday when Kevin Durant nailed a game winning three to beat the defending champion Mavs, I would of told you he was the MVP. If it was last Friday, I would have said Derrick Rose’s 29 point, 8 rebound, 16 assist dismantling of the Clippers had put him as the frontrunner. And then there is LeBron James, who is making a case to be the top dog of not only the league but also the Heat.

With Wade sitting out on Wednesday, LeBron went off for 33 points, 8 rebounds and 13 assists, making it clear that LeBron and not Wade is in fact the Batman of this loaded Heat team. The only problem with that statement now is that one day later both Wade and LeBron were on the sidelines and watched Chris Bosh take over a game going for 33 points, 5 assists and 14 rebounds in a triple-overtime win against the Atlanta Hawks. The same Atlanta Hawks that had handed the Heat their first regular season loss of the season while they were at full strength. So who exactly is leading the MVP race at the early point of the season?

Although Derrick Rose has the Bulls (6-1) atop the Central Division and Kevin Durant has the Thunder (5-2) in contention for the Western Conference title, both players have seen a slight dip in their numbers this season. Rose is averaging 20.9 points, 3 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game. Last year he averaged 25, 4.1 and 7.7 per game. Durant is averaging 26.1 points, 6 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Last year he averaged 27.7, 6.8 and 2.7 per game. One could make the claim that their late game heroics make up for the dip in numbers, but compared to LeBron this season they do not add up.

Last season LeBron saw a dip in production that was mostly attributed to the fact that he was now playing alongside Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. He still managed to average 26.7 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7 assists per game and led the Heat to the second best record in the East. But this season, still playing alongside Wade and Bosh, LeBron has seen an increase in production, averaging 29.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. No he hasn’t had the late game heroics thus far, but that’s mostly due to the fact that the Heat haven’t needed any late game heroics. James’ production has built the Heat comfortable leads early and the heat have held on to hold the league’s best record (7-1.)

MVP Rankings

1. LeBron James- His team has the best record. He is leading the league in scoring, coupled with averaging 7.7 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. If he keeps this up the award is all his.

2. Derrick Rose- I have him ahead of Durant for two reasons. One, Rose doesn’t have a Russell Westbrook or a James Harden to back him up. Two, despite a big drop in his scoring, his 8.6 assists per game show that he has advanced as a facilitator and is still a strong leader.

3. Kevin Durant- KD needs to win the scoring title for the third straight season and lead the Thunder to the best record in the league for this award to be his.

4. Kobe Bryant- Though the Lakers (4-4) aren’t atop the standings, they are much better off than the 0 and 2 start they had to the season. That’s largely due to Kobe hanging on to a bit of youth averaging 26.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game.

5. Kevin Love- The Wolves (2-4) don’t have the record, but Kevin Love is having a beast season. If he can get the Wolves to climb the standings, he could make a strong case for the award. Right now he is averaging 25.7 points, 15 rebounds and 2 assists.

6. Dwight Howard- His scoring is down from last year, but his rebounding and defensive abilities have the Magic right behind the Heat. D12 is averaging 19 points, 16 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.7 blocks per game.

7. LaMarcus Aldridge- Aldridge broke out last season and has continued to improve. This season he is averaging 23.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2 assists per game. He also has the Blazers (5-1) atop the Western Conference.

8. Carmelo Anthony- Clearly the best player on the Knicks, Melo is averaging 27.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. The only problem, the Knicks are in fourth place in the Atlantic Division.

9. Blake Griffin- I have Blake ahead of Chris Paul simply because his numbers are more impressive and even though Paul may be the veteran, Lob City belongs to Blake. 25.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.6 points per game.

10. Chris Paul- Paul is the facilitator of the highflying Clips. He is averaging 16.4 points, 2.4 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game. Impressive, yes. Anywhere near his career highs, no.

Week In Review: Goliath Stumbles, Wolves on the Rise

2012-01-02T20:58:00.000-05:00

Through the draft, the Wolves have slowly assembled a Big Three to be reckoned with.

Oh, how the mighty have ~~fallen~~ stumbled. After a little over a week of regular season action the defending champion Dallas Mavericks(1-4) find themselves at the bottom of the Southwest Division. The Lakers (3-3) lost their Christmas Day opener on a last second shot by Derrick Rose and after starting the season with consecutive loses have leveled out. And though every year looks to be the year age catches up to the Boston Celtics (2-3,) their three losses to start the season, followed by two unimpressive wins over the lowly Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards look to be a bad omen.

On the other side of the spectrum, the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder both sit undefeated, with the Heat seemingly more composed as the Thunder continue to deal with slight growing pains.[1] The Bulls (4-1) and Pacers (3-1) look like they will be fighting for the Central Division crown as both teams are off to solid starts. Out west, Portland (3-1) and Denver (3-2) will at least keep OKC from walking off with the Northwest Division, and the same goes in the Southeast, with Orlando (4-1) and Atlanta (3-1) on Miami’s heals. But the rest of the league has been leaning more toward mediocrity.

A handful of teams, the Knicks (2-2), Clippers (2-2), Warriors (2-3), Kings (2-3), Rockets (2-2), Bucks (2-1), 76ers (2-2) and Grizzlies (1-3) have had competitive showings but either lack a sense of identity[2], need time to gel with new teammates[3], lack the experience[4], maturity[5] or all-around talent[6] to make a claim as anything more than a first/second round exit or a playoff hopeful.

On a positive note, the list of perennial cellar dwellers seems to be dwindling as many teams are seeing decent production from their draft picks and that has translated to more competitive play. Kyrie Irving looks like he does indeed know how to play the point guard position after only playing eleven games for Duke and four games for the Cavs (2-2.) Irving’s teammate and fellow rookie, Tristan Thompson, is slowly making a push to be one of the top rookies of the class joining Kemba Walker (CHA), Marshon Brooks (NJ), Brandon Knight (DET), Markieff Morris (PHX) and Jimmer Fredette (SAC) as standouts from this years draft. Though none of these players will be leading their teams to the playoffs this year, they are all living (mostly) up to their hype.

Most impressive of all though has been the sudden promise of the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-3). For the past several years the lifeless Wolves have been at the hands of their clueless GM David Kahn, who it turns out, may not have been as clueless as critics have claimed. Joining the organization in 2009, two years removed from the trading of franchise player Kevin Garentt to the Celtics, Kahn was brought in to lead the rebuilding process of the Wolves. His first draft can best be described as laughable, after taking three point guards in the first round[7] and having the one with the most upside (Rubio) hold out on coming to the NBA and then trading the most NBA ready player (Ty Lawson) to the Nuggets. Don’t forget to look over the list of soon-to-be all-star caliber players he passed up including Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozen, Brandon Jennings and Jrue Holiday. Then, in 2010, he took Wesley Johnson with the fourth pick over the more talented DeMarcus Cousins[8] and topped off a long list of questionable moves when he traded for Darko Milicic[9] and then extended him to a 4 year, $20 million deal.

Though in 2011, the draft may have haphazardly fallen in Kahn’s favor and has since led to a series of fortune changing events. The Wolves were awarded the 2^nd pick instead of the 1^st in the draft and had the Wolves gotten the 1^st pick, Kahn would have almost been forced by the media to take PG Kyrie Irving, adding to Kahn’s odd draft stockpile of PGs. Instead the Wolves were able to take SF/PF Derrick Williams with the 2^nd pick. This, along with Kevin Love’s 2010 breakout season[10] played essential in finally convincing Spanish prodigy Ricky Rubio to make his way across the pond.

The Wolves now carry an interesting shell of talent and promise. Their starting lineup is anchored by Kevin Love, who continues to improve and could be a future MVP candidate, the aforementioned Milicic, who has proved productive as a role player, the oft-troubled 2008 2^nd pick Michael Beasley has become a solid scoring threat, the 2010 4^th pick, Wesley Johnson, has been a bit of a disappointment, but the Wolves have avoided a competitive collapse thanks to the leadership of veteran PG Luke Ridnour. But where the Wolves show their true promise is on their second team, which is lead by rookies Derrick Williams and Ricky Rubio. Rubio has already made a mark after going for 12 points and 12 assists in a close loss to Miami on Friday[11] and Williams has been impressive, breaking the ten-point barrier twice and doing some dirty work on the boards, averaging 5 boards in only 21 minutes a game.

Though the Timberwolves record still stands at one win and three losses, they have been extremely competitive thus far. Their lone win was a commanding one against the defending champ Dallas Mavericks and their three losses have been by a combined 9 points to the top two title favorites in Oklahoma City and Miami and the always scrappy Milwaukee Bucks. In this shortened, up-tempo season, the Wolves could be a surprise team in the West and sneak away with the 8^th seed. Though I find that outcome unlikely, the core of Love-Rubio-Williams looks as impressive and promising as any rebuilding project in the league. It’s not a matter of if, but when for these Wolves.

[1] Watch as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbook argue on the bench

[2] The Knicks need to decide how much defense they would like to play and if there is a need for a true point guard.

[3] Lob City hasn’t quite found a winning formula with Paul and Griffin yet

[4] Grizzlies and Warriors

[5] Kings, i.e. DeMarcus Cousins is straight bonkers

[6] Rockets (talent voided by David Stern,) Bucks and 76ers

[7] Starting with Rubio at 5, Johnny Flynn at 6 and Ty Lawson at 18

[8] In fairness to Kahn, Cousins is starting to show us why so many teams passed on him with his selfish, destructive attitude and behavior.

[9] Drafted 2^nd by the Pistons in 2003 and widely ~~considered~~ known as a bust

[10] Love exploded for 20 ppg and 15 boards

[11] On the season Rubio is averaging 9.5 ppg, 7.3 assists and 4 boards, he looks like the real deal.

2011-12 Playoff Predictions

2011-12-26T23:33:00.000-05:00

Also check out:

Season Preview

MVP Predictions

Durant and Co. will have troubling getting around LeBron and the Heat in the Finals.

Last season ended how we thought it would. It wasn’t out of our expectations to see Derrick Rose lead the Bulls to the best record in the league. Nor was it odd to see the aging Spurs lead the pack in the West or the Celtics, Heat, Lakers and Thunder round out the six division winners. Many people had these teams pegged as their division winners at the start of the season. But come playoff time it was a whole different story.

The number one seeded Spurs exited in the first round, the Lakers had a tough run-in with the Hornets and were eventually swept by the Mavs and the Orlando Magic had a first round exit at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. The most surprising team of all, the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that had barely made it into the playoffs, nearly made it to the Western Conference Finals, falling one game short in Game 7 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. By the end of the second round the Lakers, Celtics, Magic and Spurs, teams that had been in the Finals the previous four seasons, were all knocked out of the playoffs.

Last year may have been a bad omen for those teams. This year I expect all four of them to trickle down the standings and seed in the lower half of the bracket. Making room for teams with fresher legs that either kept their core together or made important offseason acquisitions. Teams such as the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, L.A. Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies will be in position again to make some noise come playoff time.

Eastern Conference

Round 1:

(1)Miami Heat vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks

It took Miami most of last year to work out the kinks in its schemes and they still managed to make the Finals and probably should have won the title. With a year under their belt I think they easily walk away with the number one seed. As for Milwaukee, the Bucks will have a healthy Andrew Bogut to team up with Brandon Jennings and newly acquired Stephen Jackson. That should be enough for them to make it into the playoffs, but it will be an early exit. Miami in 4.

(4) Indiana Pacers vs. (5) Boston Celtics

Indiana is going to make life tough for many teams this year. They feature a great frontcourt in Roy Hibbert, ex-Hornet David West and backup Tyler Hansbrough, a solid set of wing players in Danny Granger and Paul George, and a point guard who can manage the game in Darren Collison. Boston features Rajon Rondo. The rest is becoming fan fodder. Garnett, Pierce and Allen are all still valuable when healthy and at full strength, but by they end of the season I doubt all three of them are in that condition. Plus, the Celtics have nodda when it comes to depth this year. This is the year the Pacers breakout. Pacers in 6.

(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks

The Knicks could be dangerous this season if Tyson Chandler can play defense for all five players on the court at the same time. All joking aside, his presence makes a difference and also makes the Knicks a legit title threat. Atlanta won’t surprise us again like they did last year by pulling the upset. I think the Hawks make their way into the six seed due to a Dwight Howard trade or chemistry collapse in Orlando. Either way, they benefit. Knicks in 5.

(2) Chicago Bulls vs (7) Orlando Magic

Potentially could be a trap series for the Bulls if the Magic wind up keeping Howard and making a solid move at the trade deadline. The season ends on April 26^th this year and the trade deadline is March 15^th. That would give Orlando just enough time to get things together and make things interesting. The Bulls on the other hand might find themselves a bit over confident after making it to the Conference Finals last year. Still, I think they find a way. Bulls in 7.

Round 2:

(1) Miami Heat vs. (4) Indiana Pacers

This is going to be a tougher series for Miami than anyone will realize until they actually play the first game. The Pacers have a size advantage on Miami that will cause a lot of trouble for LeBron and Wade as it did for Rose in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Talent wins out here though. Miami in 6.

(2) Chicago Bulls vs. (3) New York Knicks

This series will come down to which team controls the tempo of the game. If the Bulls make this about defense, I think New York suffers. If the Knicks are scoring in 5^th gear, the Bulls don’t have much of a chance. It will come down to the Tyson Chandler affect. Knicks in 7.

Conference Finals:

(1) Miami Heat vs. (3) New York Knicks

How I would kill for this to become a reality. Conference finals in New York. Wade, LeBron, Melo and Amare feeding off the MSG crowd. Basketball Heaven. The Knicks will have a shot if Chandler can do what he did to Miami in last year’s finals. But Miami will have more determination this time and depth. Miami in 6.

Western Conference

Round 1:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) L.A. Lakers

The Lakers are going to get banged up this season and struggle to make it to the playoffs. Oklahoma is going to find their stride. This is a reversal of their first round meeting two seasons ago and this time Durant and co. put the dagger in Lakers. Thunder in 6.

(4) Denver Nuggets vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

Denver managed to instantly rebuild when they traded Melo to the Knicks. Ty Lawson is going to have a breakout season this year. Memphis will be equally as good as they were last season, only this time we will all see it coming. The Mile High magic is the difference maker. Denver in 7.

(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (6) Portland Trailblazers

The Clips are going to easily overthrow the Lakers this season and claim the Pacific crown. The Blazers will manage to effortlessly move past Brandon Roy’s retirement even if Greg Oden doesn’t return. Which gets me to thinking, how good would they be if their franchise wasn’t cursed with bad knees? Clips in 6.

(2) Dallas Mavericks vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs

Despite the personnel changes Dirk and Kidd will find a way to get the Mavs the second seed in the West. Instead of going for the top seed this year I think the aging Spurs save the energy for the playoffs and settle for a lower seed. Age over beauty. Spurs in 6.

Round 2:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (4) Denver Nuggets

This would be a great series to watch. A repeat matchup of the first round from last season, both teams are young and on the rise. Another year under their belts should make this one interesting. Denver can battle. Thunder in 6.

(3) L.A. Clippers vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs will be able to use their basketball IQ to sneak around the Mavs in the first round, but in the second they will run into a physical juggernaut in the Clippers. Paul, Blake and Jordan will be too much for Duncan and co. to handle. Clips in 6.

Conference Finals:

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) L.A. Clippers

The Clippers picked up Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler this offseason. I think we learned from Miami last year that these things take time. On the other side of the court, the Thunder were one step away from making it to the Finals last season. This year they make it happen. Thunder in 7.

NBA Finals

(1) Miami Heat vs. (1) Oklahoma City Thunder

I expect both of these teams to be at the top of the league for most of the next decade. I won’t be surprised if this is the first of many Finals matchups between the two. The next stage will prove to be too much for Durant and Westbrook the first time around. In year two though, I think Miami gets it done with the Big 3. Miami in 6.

Fantasy Guide: Centers

2011-12-24T17:34:00.000-05:00

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards

Part 2: Shooting Guards

Part 3: Small Forwards

Part 4: Power Forwards

Superman is going to have company this season.

You can throw your idea of a “true” center out the window. For the past several years the NBA has seen a surge in more athletic big men who are less defensive stoppers and more of an all-around player. I think this year though we begin to see a shift back toward the days of yore where a center meant a block party and 10-15 boards a night.

Superstars-

Dwight Howard- Almost a lock for Defensive Player of the Year every year, D12 is going to be a force no matter where he plays. He had his best season yet last year and still has room to improve.

Automatics-

Al Horford- I think this is the year Al creeps over 10 boards a night and has the potential to turn into a 20-10 guy. You’re at least getting 15-10 from him though. A solid young player.

Joakim Noah- Noah dealt with some injuries last season but was still averaged a double-double. There is a chance he has met his ceiling, but I think he still has room to grow.

Andrew Bynum- Bynum is going to have to step up this season with Lamar Odom heading to Dallas. As it goes every year, as long as the young fella can stay healthy.

Andrea Bargani- Bargani is a scoring machine and has improved his offensive production each season in the league. Last year he dropped 21 a game. Now if only he could learn how to rebound and block a shot.

Al Jefferson- Big Al played a full 82 games last season. I expect him to return to his 20-10 form and with 2 blocks a game, you can’t go wrong.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Roy Hibbert- Hibbs had his best season yet last year and has improved every season in the league. I think this year he makes a major jump on an exciting Pacers team.

DeMarcus Cousins- Full of talent, but also full of attitude. If he can mature he is going to turn into a beast. He can score, board and pass. He complete package.

Marcin Gortat- Gortat was barely doing anything in Orlando playing behind Dwight Howard. Then, mid-season, he got traded to Phoenix and went off. I think the he is due to breakout big this year and could easily go 15-10 with a block or two a game.

Marc Gasol- The other Gasol made a name for himself in last years playoffs and it turned into a big payday. I trust Gasol to not only continue improving despite not being in a contract year, but I think he can become one of the leagues best centers right behind D12.

Serge Ibaka- The Thunder just know how to draft. Ibaka is going to have a monster season, earning a starting role and could easily go for 15-10 and 3 blocks a game.

JaVale McGee- JaVale took it up a notch last year averaging 10 points, 8 boards and 2 blocks a game. Playing alongside John Wall I imagine McGee to take it to another level, averaging a solid double-double and 3 blocks a game.

DeAndre Jordan- The Clips wisely resigned Jordan. Playing alongside Chris Paul is going to do wonders for this young big man. I think this year he makes a big leap and averages a double-double and two blocks a game.

Greg Monroe- As Monroe saw more playing time last year he also saw his production rise. This year he is going to have the starting role on a rebuilding Pistons team. He will be good for 15 and 10 this year.

Brook Lopez- (see mid-season upside)

Mr. Consistent-

Anderson Varejao- Varejao is a double-double candidate and should still have a large role on a rebuilding Cavs team.

Nene- Nene has reached his ceiling at 15-7. That’s pretty good.

Andrew Bogut- The Aussie does a little bit of everything. He averaged 12-12-2-2.5 last season and I expect the same from him this year.

Tyson Chandler- A crucial piece to the Mavs title run last year has now found his way to the fast paced Knicks. He is expected to play a similar role. Even in the high octane offense, I expect him to stay steady at 10-10.

Purgatory-

Jordan Hill- Due to the botched Pau Gasol trade Hill is going to get valuable minutes in Houston at the center position. The question is, can the young big man produce with the added minutes?

Chuck Hayes- As with most of the players in Sacramento, there just aren’t enough minutes to go around. With the alleged heart condition and the stacked frontcourt, it’s hard to tell how many minutes Hayes will receive.

Andris Biedrins- Three years ago Biedrins averaged a double-double. Since then he has fallen off quite a bit. He is still capable of producing, but it’s uncertain if he will.

Spencer Hawes- Hawes was turning into a promising young big in Sacramento and then got sent to Philadelphia and took a step back last season. It could have been an adjustment period or a real sign that he just isn’t the full package.

Too Soon To Tell-

Kawme Brown- The former number one pick had one of his best seasons of his career last year and now finds himself on a fast paced Golden State team. At 29, he could score 15 a game in this offense. But if history holds, he will disappoint again.

Samuel Dalembert- Dalembert has finally found a home in Houston after becoming a free agent. The rockets may decide to play their young guys as they find themselves in a rebuilding process after the Gasol trade fell through.

Kendrick Perkins/Nazr Mohammed- The Thunder went and picked up both these big men via trades last year in order to add some much need size to their young core. With Ibaka taking a larger chunk of minutes both of these players may become irrelevant.

Darko Milicic- Most likely still considered a bust by most due to where he was drafter, Darko looked fairly comfortable in Minnesota last season and that turned into a productive season. There is a chance he can improve even more this season playing next to Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio.

DeJuan Blair/Tiago Splitter- The Spurs are one of the best managed teams in sports. With Tim Duncan aging one of these young big men are going to step up and deliver a solid season. I’m just not sure which one.

Mid-Season Upside-

Bismack Biyombo- Bismack has a fun name to say. Hopefully he can develop quickly and become a fun player to watch. A ton of raw talent.

Eddy Curry- Curry has the potential to fill a large need for the Heat this year. The question is if he is in shape or not.

Greg Oden- The Blazers are sticking it out with the former number one pick. We’ve seen glimpses, but can he stay healthy.

Mehmet Okur- He will now rejoin Deron Williams in New Jersey. Will he rejoin his former skills as a basketball player as well? The minutes are certainly there.

Enes Kanter- If the Jazz are smart they will play their young guys. As the season moves on Kanter should gain very valuable minutes.

Brook Lopez- He scored 20 a game last year but forgot how to rebound. More recently he suffered an injury that will put him out 6-8 weeks. Hopefully he can come back strong when he is fully healed.

Mid-Season Downside-

Marcus Camby- The season won’t treat Camby well and if Oden makes a return there will be a big drop in the veteran’s production.

Washed Up-

Jermaine O’Neil/Chris Wilcox- Boston would come out really lucky if both of these guys return to being half the players they used to be. I doubt it happens though.

Brendan Haywood- Haywood lost a lot of minutes to Tyson Chandler last season. He lost those minutes for a reason. Don’t expect much.

Ben Wallace- It’s time for the former DPOY to call it quits.

Joel Anthony- He does certain things that the Heat need him to do. He will do nothing you need him to do on your fantasy team.

Ronny Turiaf- Even though he was never really much of a fantasy presence, he is now in Washington to serve as a mentor to a young team.

Fantasy Guide: Power Forwards

2011-12-23T11:27:00.000-05:00

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards

Part 2: Shooting Guards

Part 3: Small Forwards
Part 5: Centers

Expect Blake to keep doing Blake things this year.

In fantasy terms the power forward position has always been somewhat of a conundrum. Most power forwards aren’t the best at accruing assists and they don’t necessarily bring in the 10-plus boards we expect from a solid center. Suddenly that has changed. Now the position boasts a handful of players who can drop 20 points, 10 boards and 3-4 assists a night. Make sure you grab at least one of these guys for your team.

Superstars-

Dirk Nowitzki- Dirk is coming off of his first finals victory, but because of the lockout the Mavs don’t seem to have much of a target on their back. Assuming he can stay healthy through this gauntlet of a season, I say the lack of attention motivates Dirk towards another MVP-like season.

Blake Griffin- A serious threat for the MVP and regardless of that fact, he is playing along Chris Paul this year. Blake is also sneaky good at dishing out assists.

Kevin Love- Love broke out last year and wound up leading the league in rebounds. He’s still young and in great shape. Towards the end of the season he will be running circles around the vets in the league. Oh, and with Rubio finally showing up in Minny, there may be something special brewing.

LaMarcus Aldridge- After Brandon Roy went down last year, Aldridge went off. This year he could be a potential MVP candidate. He’s a solid 20-10 guy on a fun Blazers team.

Automatics-

Pau Gasol- Age is going to start slowing Pau down sooner or later and some believe it already has. Something about the Lakers also seem off to me this season and I think that effects his production. That being said, he’s still going to have a solid season.

Amare Stoudemire- Amare started last season on fire and was looking like a top candidate for MVP. Then his production tailed off a bit and Carmelo showed up. In the up-tempo Knicks offense though he is still going to have a great year.

Davis Lee- Perhaps he is a bit overpaid in Golden State but he is still going to drop 17 and 10 each night.

Zach Randolph- Randolph has been a 20-10 guy for years now and for some reason is perennially underrated because of his past attitude issues. He went off in the playoffs this year and now he should be a hot pickup.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Chris Bosh- I say Bosh is a candidate for a slight breakout and being a fantasy grenade. He won’t ever return to his Toronto form while playing alongside LeBron and Wade, but I expect him to get back to grabbing 10-boards a night and occasionally going off for 30-40 points.

Josh Smith- Smith is a stat-sheet filler who could be poised for a leap this year. At the least your getting 18 and 9 coupled with 3-4 assists and 2 blocks a game.

Serge Ibaka- If Ibaka breaks out this year the league better watch out for the Thunder. I think he is going to break out.

Emeka Okafor- Okafor went from being a disappointment to being a solid role player. Now with Chris Paul being traded out of New Orleans there is a void to fill. He could have his best season yet.

Andre Blatche- I would not want Blatche if I were running a real life basketball team, but for some reason, Blatche is a fantasy beast from time to time. This year I think that becomes more consistent and he has his best season yet.

Mr. Consistent-

Kevin Garnett- Age has definitely slowed KG down. If he can stay healthy you can expect 17-8 from him every night.

Tim Duncan- The greatest power forward of all-time saw a major drop in production last season. This year I think we can expect exactly what we saw out of Duncan last year.

Paul Millsap- A couple of years ago Millsap got a chance to play quality minutes for the Jazz and worked his way into a starting job. Now he is a solid 17-8 guy.

Elton Brand- He is a shell of his younger self, but still a solid 15-8 player.

Luis Scola- An underrated player year in and year out. An 18-8 guy who throws in a couple of assists a night too.

Carlos Boozer- I’m not much of a Boozer fan and after his performance in the Conference Finals last year I doubt many Chicago fans are either. If he stays healthy and builds more chemistry with D-Rose he could return to his 20-10 form, but realistically I see him at 17-8.

David West- Coming off ACL surgery, West is a bit of a mystery. We will shortly learn how well he responds and if he can hold up. That being said, the Pacers are only asking him to be their number 2 or 3 guy, making West a consistent fantasy producer.

Purgatory-

Tyrus Thomas/Boris Diaw- Charlotte is becoming a joke and hardly resembles a basketball team. When Tyrus gets minutes he can produce, but for some reason doesn’t get a lot of minutes with the Bobcats. Boris Diaw can fill the stat sheet, but he is playing on the Bobcats and might wind up being their starting center. Oy vey.

JJ Hickson- It feels like the Kings have about 50 players on their team who are all capable of having fantasy-relevant seasons. The only problem is that there just aren’t enough minutes for all of these players. Hickson will only be as productive as the amount of minutes he is given.

Charlie Villanueva- Three years ago Charlie went 16 and 6 and was a decent fantasy option. Since he has moved to Detroit he has been a disappointment. We will see what we get out of him this year.

Antawn Jamison- Even though he probably has something left in the tank and he had solid numbers last year, Jamison is still playing for the basketball team formerly known as the LeBrons. He could be due for a very bad year.

Chris Kaman- He just got traded to New Orleans in the Chris Paul deal and usually does exactly the opposite of what you expect of him. I expected him to stay in all-star form last year and he did not. I now expect him to fill a void in New Orleans and have a quality year. Which probably means he will not.

Carl Landry- Landry is a solid glue guy who can go for 10-15 points a night. A few years ago he was in reach of 20 a game. Now he is in New Orleans on a team lacking any identity. Who knows what we will get.

Too Soon To Tell-

Udonis Haslem- Haslem is a beast of a player and more of a role player on a stacked Heat team. He is going to get minutes but I feel uncertain about what exactly we should expect from him statistically this year.

Glen Davis/Ryan Anderson- Both of these guys could experience a garbage-time season and put up some unrealistically awesome fantasy numbers if Dwight Howard gets traded mid-season. If he doesn’t get traded they stay right where they were last year.

Mid-Season Upside-

Tristan Thompson- I don’t think Thompson produces right out the gate, but after he gets a month or two under his belt, we will see if he was worth the fourth overall pick in the draft.

Kenneth Faried- Faried will be fighting for minutes this season. He will be a special player one day, just maybe not this season.

Al-Farouq Aminu- Unfortunately for Aminu he got traded out of playing with Blake Griffin. But fortunately this may result in more minutes and a chance for him to turn into something special. It may take him a bit to get going, but if he finds a groove mid-season he is going to be good.

Ed Davis- Davis had a decent rookie campaign last year. He needs to get more minutes though and as the season goes on I expect the Raptors to unleash him a bit more.

Derrick Favors- I don’t really trust Favors to prove his 3^rd-pick worthiness and it certainly won’t happen this year. But, come mid-season he may start to produce stats that could validate a spot for him on your fantasy team.

Tyler Hansbrough- Psycho Ty improved last year from his rookie campaign. He is on a fun, upstart Pacers team and could earn himself enough minutes to become a 15-7 player.

Taj Gibson- Gibson saw a dip in minutes last year and it caused his numbers to drop too. If he can steal minutes from Boozer and Noah he could breech 10 points per game and grab a few more boards than last year. It’s going to take him half the year to prove he is worth it though.

Brandon Bass- He just got traded to the Celtics and is going to see quality minutes. I saw it takes him a bit to gel with the group and by mid-season could be a 15-6 player.

Reggie Williams- Williams lost minutes last season after having a very impressive rookie campaign. If he can earn those minutes back by mid-season he will be a beast.

Jonas Jerebko- Jerebko had a decent season last year and is playing on a rebuilding Pistons team. If he can find the minutes he could become a valuable 3^rd or 4^th forward on your fantasy team.

Mid-Season Downside-

Al Harrington- Harrington saw a major drop in production last year and is slated to see another drop as his younger counterparts steal minutes from him and his teammates trapped in China return.

Drew Gooden- I don’t trust Gooden that much and I think the gauntlet season is going to do him in at some point.

Amir Johnson- Johnson will lose minutes to Ed Davis as the season moves on, simply for the fact that Ed Davis has potential and Johnson is overpaid.

Washed Up-

Johan Petro- Never was any good to begin with and doesn’t look to be getting better any time soon.

Fantasy Guide: Small Forwards

2011-12-21T10:49:00.000-05:00

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards

Part 2: Shooting Guards

Part 4: Power Forwards

Part 5: Centers

Something tells me we get this LeBron back this year.

The small forward position is currently home to a handful of stat sheet fillers. Players who score, rebound, and dole out a healthy amount of assists. I recommend you grab a few of these guys for your team. There are the obvious studs, such as LeBron, Carmelo and Durant, but there is also Andre Iguodala, who went 14-6-6 last year. Most people focused on the scoring dip Iguodala had, dropping from 17 a game down to 14, when we actually expected a jump up to 20. But, with 6 assists and 6 boards a night, you can’t go wrong, even if he scores in the teens again.

Superstars-

LeBron James- Even with the transitional issues of teaming up with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh last year, LeBron still was able to put together an MVP like season going 26-7-7. With a year under their belt, I say the Heat stars find a way to excel at another level. LeBron could easily go for 30-8-8 this year and regain the MVP.

Carmelo Anthony- In the D’Antoni system almost anyone can thrive. Carmelo is already considered one of the purest scorers in the game. I expect a slight jump in his already impressive numbers this year.

Kevin Durant- He keeps getting better every year and has led the league in scoring the past two years. I won’t be surprised to see him lead the league again and make a run at his first MVP award.

Automatics-

Rudy Gay- Gay was having a great season last year until an injury cut his season short. He got to sit on the bench as he watched his teammates beat the number one seed Spurs and push the Thunder to a Game 7 in the second round. I expect him to be hungry this year.

Danny Granger- All of the sudden Granger is surrounded by a strong supported cast in Indiana. This team is going to be dangerous and I expect all of Granger’s numbers to jump slightly.

Paul Pierce- He no longer averages as many points as he did earlier in his career, but he is far from washed up. You can still expect him to score in the upper teens every night and as with most prolific scorers, as the scoring drops off some, the boards and assists usually rise. That’s good news for fantasy owners.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Danilo Gallinari- Gallinari was traded out of the high scoring D’Antoni system last year, but now he is a centerpiece in the Denver rebuilding process. I won’t be surprised to see him start scoring in the low 20’s this season.

Dorell Wright- Wright was finally given the proper minutes and it paid off for the Warriors. One might say last year was his breakout year, but something tells me his ceiling could be even higher and he has an even larger breakout this year. Especially if Monta Ellis is traded at some point.

Stephen Jackson- Jackson could easily be considered an automatic, but he has found a new home in Milwaukee and age will be an issue sooner than later. I don’t expect his numbers to drop off too much, but I see him more of a Fantasy Grenade this year. He’ll have a dozen or so games where his numbers are LeBron-esque.

Michael Beasley- He has maturity issues. He has a GM who is collecting point guards and small forwards. He also has game. I don’t care if the wolves took Derrick Williams at number 2; Beasley is going to explode this year.

Mr. Consistent-

Luol Deng- For the past couple of seasons Deng has scored 17 points and grab a few boards. So this year I expect him to show up, score 17 points and grab a few boards.

Andre Iguodala- I mentioned Iggy in the intro paragraph to this section, but for those of you who jumped down, I expect a consistent 15-6-6 night in and night out from the guy. I doubt we’ll see many 30-point games from him this year but it won’t matter much when he’s bringing in all those assists and boards.

Grant Hill- The training staff in Phoenix has added a few years to Hill’s career. He is also playing alongside Steve Nash, another aging star who seems to refuse to lose a step. Expect Hill to score in the teens again with three to four assists and five or four boards a night.

Gerald Wallace- Wallace’s presence in Portland is overshadowed by LaMarcus Aldridge. This might be a good thing. Wallace is a double-double candidate and though he isn’t going to win your league for you, he can be a valuable addition to your fantasy team.

Caron Butler- He’s coming off an injury, but he also just landed in Lob City, teamed next to Paul and Griffin. I think we can expect to do the same thing he has done his whole career. Score 15-20 points a night.

Andrei Kirilenko- AK47 has been as about as consistent a player throughout his career as one can be. A true stat sheet stuffer, he does it all. It looks like he’ll be landing in New Jersey to pair up with his old teammate Deron Williams and the new Russian owner. I say that’s a good thing.

Purgatory-

Corey Maggette- Last year Maggette saw a huge drop off in points dipping from 19 to 12 per game. He also now finds himself in Charlotte with a young group of players. There is a chance he can return to his old form but it’s really only just a chance.

Trevor Ariza- Ariza averaged 14 points per game two years ago and last year saw a bit of a dip. With both Chris Paul and David West now gone, he has the ability to become the Hornets’ second scoring option behind Eric Gordon. This is probably not a good thing for the Hornets, but a good thing for anyone owning Trevor Ariza.

Shawn Marion/Lamar Odom- The Mavs just picked up Odom for just about nothing and out of the two of them I think Odom has more in the tank. The problem is going to be how much playing time each of them will get.

Thaddeus Young- Young has been stuck in neutral for the past two seasons after appearing to break out three years ago when he averaged a career high 15 points per game. He is still only 23, but I question how much more of a ceiling he has.

John Salmons- When he gets enough opportunities Salmons is capable of going for 20 a night. But like many players in Sacramento, it’s hard to judge how many minutes he will get.

Too Soon To Tell-

Omar Casspi- Casspi had a great rookie campaign and then took a slight step back in his sophomore season. Now he finds himself in Cleveland. There should be plenty of playing time for the third year player. Can he take advantage of it?

Jared Dudley- Dudley had his best year yet last season in Phoenix. If he can land the starting role and get a few more minutes a game, he could be good for 15 a night. Could be. I use caution because last year was the first year he broke 10 per game. He could easily fall back below into fantasy irrelevancy.

Wesley Johnson- It’s too bad Wesley isn’t a center or a shooting guard because Minnesota is overloaded at point guard, small forward and power forward. He had a decent rookie campaign, but with so many players in his way, it’s hard to tell how much time he’ll get and if he will be able to improve at all.

Rashard Lewis- The Wiz Kids didn’t amnesty Lewis because it would have forced them to spend money in order to meet the salary cap minimum once they got rid of him. He still remains the most overpaid player in the league and I expect another lackluster performance. But if for some reason he returns to his old form he could be very valuable.

Josh Howard- Howard has been struggling with injuries the past two years and now finds himself playing for a rebuilding Utah. If he can stay healthy he will get minutes and hopefully return to the 18 and 6 player he was in Dallas.

Tayshaun Prince- Prince has been one of the most consistent players in the league averaging 14-3-5 for what seems like an eternity. But this year he turns 31 for a rebuilding Pistons team. Age may soon catch up with Tayshaun.

Chase Budinger- The vetoed trade that kept Pau Gasol from coming to Houston is going to help out a couple of young players. Budinger is one of them but something in my gut is uncertain if he is ready to make a leap.

Mid-Season Upside-

Kawhi Leonard- The Spurs traded up to get Leonard but still hung on to Richard Jefferson. I see Kawhi coming off the bench to start the season and then proving his worth come late February.

Linas Kleiza- Linas is recovering from injury and it’s up in the air as to when he comes back. But when he does he’ll find plenty of minutes in Toronto and could be a special mid-season addition to your team.

Jan Vesely- Vesely is going to be a fun young player with great athletic ability. I don’t expect him to produce right away, but come mid-season he may obtain some value.

Wilson Chandler- Chandler is stuck in China at the moment. When he returns he will have great fantasy value as long as he can find minutes in Denver.

Austin Daye- The third year player saw an increase in minutes last year and an increase in production. If the same thing happens this year he could be a valuable third or fourth forward on your team.

Tony Allen- He threw some punches last year mid-way through the season and wound up having a fairly productive second half when OJ Mayo’s minutes were handed over to him. If Mayo gets traded we could see the same thing happen this year.

Derrick Williams- It’s uncertain whether Williams will play at the three or the four. It’s also uncertain where he will find minutes on an oddly constructed Wolves team. Only time will tell.

Mid-Season Downside-

Richard Jefferson- Jefferson has clearly lost his step and it is also pretty clear that the Spurs plan to replace him with Kawhi Leonard.

Hedo Turkoglu- Hedo has fallen off the past couple of years and I expect the trend to continue.

Washed Up-

Marvin Williams- To call him washed up might be unfair considering he was never much of anything to begin with. I would rather trust someone with upside than a disappointment like Williams.

Metta World Peace/Matt Barnes- If you combined the two of these guys for the Lakers you would have a beast. That being said, both players are being used for mainly defensive purposes and should not be expected to have significant fantasy production by any means.

Fantasy Guide: Shooting Guards

2011-12-19T23:49:00.000-05:00

Check out the Fantasy Primer

Part 1: Point Guards
Part 3: Small Forwards
Part 4: Power Forwards
Part 5: Centers

Expect D-Wade to rise above his peers in 2011-12

Shooting Guards

It's going to be hard to tell what to expect from this years crop of shooting guards. We know we're getting a monster year from Dwayne Wade, that Kobe will lose another step and Joe Johnson will continue to be overpaid. The uncertainty lies in the rest of the class. Will we find out the ceiling of Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and other budding stars or will they stall for anther year? Much like many of the teams in the league, shooting guards seem to be in a state of transition at the moment. Moving from old to new.

Superstars-

Dwayne Wade- D. Wade had a great inaugural season next to LeBron and Bosh. With a year under their belts and the drive to win the championship I expect similar, if not better production from the best player at the position.

Automatics-

Kobe Bryant- You may be shocked to see me drop Kobe out of the superstar relm and into the automatics. Father time is going to catch up with the Black Mamba at some point and I say this is the year we really see a drop. All that really means is that he still puts up better numbers than most, just not great ones.

Joe Johnson- Joe Johnson is so overpaid that if I owned the Hawks I might amnesty him. Okay, perhaps that is a little harsh. He won’t put up numbers to back what he is being paid, but you can count on him to drop 18-5-5 every night.

Monta Ellis- An explosive scorer on the trading block. He’s a lock at 25-5-4. Some may think he can rise above that, but even with a change of scenery I think Ellis has peaked, which, from a fantasy standpoint, is perfectly fine.

Eric Gordon- Not this year, but next year I see EG joining Wade as the cream of the crop for shooting guards. The change and scenery gives Gordon the opportunity to be the alpha dog. I say he adjusts fine and goes for 23-4-3, but it takes him a year to flourish and rise to superstardom.

Manu Ginobili- I may be stretching a bit to still include Ginobili in this group, but the dude has a lot of heart. Even with his age creeping higher I expect a slight increase in his production with Tim Duncan losing another step this year.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Kevin Martin- K-Mart is not going to have any sort of breakout, but rest assured he is a nightly candidate to go off and drop 40.

James Harden- The Thunder have no current plans of starting Harden over Thabo Sefolosha, but that doesn’t mean they won’t consider it at some point this season. Harden is my candidate for the sixth man award if he comes off the bench. I expect His ppg to jump into the upper teens and a slight rise in assists and boards.

Shannon Brown- As an explosive role player for the Lakers Brown was very productive. Now he is joining Steve Nash’s Suns and contending for a starting gig. Something special may be rising in Phoenix.

Wesely Matthews- With Brandon Roy now retired I don’t expect the Blazers to miss a beat. Two words: Wesely Matthews.

Tyreke Evans: Tyreke won the ROY and then fell off quite a bit last season. I think that was just a sophomore slump and expect his best season yet.

DeMar DeRozan- A lock for 20 ppg this year. Fortunate for Raptor fans, you have a budding star.

Mr. Consistant-

Ray Allen- It’s probably time to start getting concerned with what Ray has left in the tank. Fortunately, the three-point king still has his shot and that should allow him to put up a solid 15 per game this year. Added with a few rebounds, assists and an occasional 30-40 point game and you have yourself a reliable fantasy starter.

Jason Terry- Terry was huge for the Mavs in last years title run and should continue to play a role in their efforts to repeat. The Mavs count on him to add a spark off the bench, you can count on him in your fantasy lineup.

Nick Young- Nick Young is going to average 20-25 points per game this year. And aside from a rebound and an assist here or there, that’s about all you should expect. Luckily, his scoring output is good enough to make him a solid fantasy contributor night in and night out.

Arron Afflalo- Afflalo is expected to resign in Denver and become a key part of their rebuilding process. He has always served his teams as a quality backup, I expect his increased floor time to add up to 15-5-5 from him this season.

Purgatory-

Vince Carter- Orlando gave up on Vinsanity and Phoenix quickly followed suit. Now we find the former dunk champion in Dallas surrounded by other quality vets. There is a chance remains well rested by only being given a handful of minutes. There is also a chance he is washed up.

Ben Gordon- To say Gordon had a lackluster performance last season is an understatement. Will he bounce back?

Paul George- Indiana is looking like a young team poised to cause trouble in the East and Paul George is a reason why. If he is given the minutes and continues from where he left off last year, he could evolve into a special player this season.

Anthony Morrow- When he was on the court Morrow was streaky at times, stringing a few 20-point games together. He was also injured for a good bit of the season. If he can stay healthy, being paired with D-Will is probably going to be a good thing for Morrow.

Jason Richardson- I think he still has some left in the tank, but right now Orlando doesn’t smell right to me and J-Rich just signed an extension. Oops.

Daniel Gibson- Boobey has shown the world he can score over the years. The problem is that he is often times given inconsistent minutes or becomes inconsistent himself. With the Cavs in rebuilding mode, Boobey could wind up seeing valuable minutes.

Marcus Thornton- Marcus is a future 20-point player. My concern is with the amount of minutes he will get in Sacramento. It’s looking like there won’t be enough to go around.

Too Soon To Tell-

Rip Hamilton- Rip is a big pickup for the Bulls. More than likely it’s a pickup that has more of an effect in the playoffs. If Brewer/Krover/Bogans are stealing minutes for defensive or sharpshooter purposes, Rip’s fantasy value will dwindle.

Rudy Fernandez/Corey Brewer- With some of Denver’s piece’s stuck in China, both Rudy and Brewer could wind up seeing valuable minutes in the Mile High City.

Chauncey Billups- He’s getting a fresh start in Clipperland and playing along Chris Paul and Blake Griffen. If he’s motivated to lead them to a potential title run, he’ll produce, but there is a chance father time has a larger say than he does.

OJ Mayo- Mayo had a bit of a rough season last year. Got into a fight with Tony Allen and lost a lot of playing time. If he is given the minutes and gels with his teammates he could be relevant to your fantasy team.

DeShawn Stevenson- The LeBronStopper might actually find quality minutes this year. He’s a risk, but one that could pay off handsomely.

Michael Redd- Yes, that Michael Redd. It feels like he has been injured for an eternity and can’t seem to catch a break, but if he finds a way to get healthy and can even grasp an ounce of his old game, he is worth picking up for your team.

Mike Dunleavy/Carlos Delfino- Both players will have solid stats, the question is, with the two of them sharing minutes in Milwaukee, will either of them be consistent enough to be fantasy worthy.

Landry Fields- Fields showed some signs of greatness in the Big Apple last year. I expect only a slight improvement in his game now, but in two or three we better start watching out for this kid.

Evan Turner/Jodi Meeks- Turner needs to mature and Meeks needs minutes. I expect the Sixers to still be invested in their number two pick, which will hurt Meeks’ value, but may improve Turner in the long run.

Jamal Crawford- Crawford was huge for the Hawks last year. Now he is with the Blazers. I’m uncertain though if his game translates seamlessly to the west coast or not.

Mid-Season Upside-

Tracy McGrady- T-Mac is probably washed up. But somehow or another he had a few games for Detroit last year where he filled the stat sheet and became relevant to fantasy owners. There’s always a chance he does that again in Atlanta this year.

J.R. Smith- China.

Klay Thompson- Thompson could see some valuable time on the court if Monta Ellis gets traded.

Xavier Henry- He showed some flashes when he stole time from Mayo last year. If he’s given the opportunity again, he won’t disappoint.

Gerald Henderson- There is going to be a youth movement in Charlotte as the Bobcats attempt to build through the draft. If Henderson keeps developing he could turn into a solid start come midseason.

Mid-Season Downside-

Anthony Parker- Parker is going to slowly lose minutes as the season moves along in Cleveland. Not that he was going to produce much to begin with.

Washed-Up-

Josh Childress- Probably one of the worst free agents signings in recent memory. He will do nothing in Phoenix.

Raja Bell- Bell will get lost in the mix as the Jazz go full throttle on their rebuilding process.

Fantasy Guide: Point Guards

2011-12-19T03:09:00.000-05:00

Check out the Fantasy Primer
Part 2: Shooting Guards
Part 3: Small Forwards

Part 4: Power Forwards
Part 5: Centers

Will CP3 help the Clippers own L.A.?

Can D-Rose repeat as MVP?

Point Guards:

Many leagues place a lot of value on assists. Usually two points per. This can add a lot of value to a player whom, if you were a real GM, you probably wouldn’t want to build a team around. But in the world of fantasy this can turn a real life dud into an almost-stud. An example, try Jose Calderon. Plays for a non-contender with little upside and not surrounded by a lot of talent. Not the first place you are looking for a 3^rd/4^th guard or a flex player. But, if you look at his stats from last year (9.8 ppg/8.9 apg/3 rpg/1.2spg/2.1tpg) you can expect around 29 fantasy points per start. So if in the late mid to late rounds of your draft you find yourself increasingly tempted to jump on the uncertainties of Kyrie Irving, take a look around and make sure that a 25-30 point lock, such as Calderon, isn’t hanging around too.

Superstars-

Derek Rose: The reigning MVP will have a lot to live up to and I expect him to deliver. Perhaps he only replicates last season, but something tells me he finds another gear and improves his shot. At worst he takes a minor step back, which is still a step ahead of most of the league.

Chris Paul: Will the duo of Paul and Griffin turn L.A. into Lob City? Will he stay in one peace? Paul could be poised to have his best season yet and turns the Clippers into an instant contender. He had a great season last year while not surrounded by much. Now he has talent around him. Enough said.

Deron Williams: A 20ppg/10apg player no matter who he is playing with, even if he is with the soon to be Brooklyn Nets. And who knows, Dwight may be on his way up the coast as well.

Russell Westbrook: Sources say there may be some alpha dog issues in the OKC locker room. The stat sheet will agree.

Automatics-

Rajon Rondo- Trade rumors aside, Rondo is an assist machine and will pull down a handful of triple-doubles this year. An underrated fantasy player and in my opinion, should be the first Celtic off the board.

Steve Nash- Despite his age, Steve Nash is still one of the leagues top point guards. He led the league in assists last year. He might not do that again, but he’ll be close for a few more years. Oh, and he also scores about 15 per game.

John Wall- It can be easy to label Wall for a breakout season, but I still think he has a year or two to go before that happens. When it does though it will be a near-MVP caliber leap. You can consider him an Automatic 20 ppg/9 apg candidate in his sophomore campaign.

Stephen Curry- 18-6-4-2. Points, assists, boards and steals, every night for two years straight. The trend will continue and Curry has the potential for a 20-6-5 season.

Breakouts/Fantasy Grenades-

Ty Lawson- Denver is hardly going to miss a beat after the Carmelo trade thanks to Lawson’s rise this year. I expect at least 15 and 7, if not more.

Brandon Jennings- If Brandon Jennings is going to rise to the next level, this is going to be the year we start to see it.

Mike Conely- Conely finally showed signs of being a quality point guard last year and led a promising young Grizzlies team to a second round game 7. His stats have improved each of his four years in the league. Who’s to say they don’t again.

Rodney Stuckey- Stuckey feuded with his coaches a bit last year, but with a new contract I expect the bickering to settle and his stats to rise.

Tyreke Evans- It’s unsure of if Tyreke will be starting at PG or SG this year. Regardless, he’s going to be starting. After taking a step back in his sophomore season, I expect Evans to have his best season yet this year on what could be a talented young Kings team.

Mr. Consistent-

Jason Kidd- Though he hasn’t aged quite as well as Steve Nash, Kidd is a stat sheet stuffer who can still pull down a triple double. Expect 8 ppg/8 apg out of him this season

Tony Parker- As long as he stays healthy, I expect Parker to continue to float around 17 and 7.

Jrue Holiday- Holiday made a big leap from his rookie to sophomore season. A lot of that can be contributed to more minutes though. I say he sticks around the 14/7/4 area for one more year before breaking out next year.

Devin Harris- The mid-season adjustment was a tad shaky for Harris and it showed in his stats. Now that he is grounded though, expect him to drop 17 and 8.

Raymond Felton- He flourished in Mike D’Antoni’s system but now he is in Portland. Hopefully he doesn’t fall victim to any curses and blows out a knee. With Brandon Roy retiring, I expect Felton to match his production in NYC.

Jose Calerdon- A sneaky good fantasy player as stated in our Point Guard introduction.

Purgatory-

Kyle Lowry- Lowry saw increased minutes in Houston last season and it showed in his stats. Hopefully he can show some consistency and continue the 13/6/4 production.

Darren Collison- Hopefully Collison can take advantage of David West’s arrival. West is a solid low-post shooter and could add an assist or two to Collison’s average.

Tony Douglas/Baron Davis- Tony has shown some promise his first two years. But if a healthy Baron shows up in NYC there won’t be enough minutes to go around for the both of them to shine.

Jameer Nelson- Nelson has been a solid fantasy guard the past couple of years but at the same time, he has also hit a wall of sorts. With Dwight Howard possibly on the move I sense a potential drop in production from Nelson, who may find himself and his teammates unmotivated.

Beno Udrih- Beno has shown he can fill the stat sheet when given the minutes. He’s on a new team now and his production will rely on how his minutes are split with Brandon Jennings.

Too Soon To Tell-

Kyrie Irving- The number one pick from the 2011 draft will have a lot of pressure on him to produce but not much help from the talent surrounding him. Considering he is a part of what seems to be a weak draft class, I’ll be sold on Irving when I see him get a few games under his belt.

Ricky Rubio/Luke Ridnhour/JJ Barea- Perhaps David Kahn needed just one more point guard. Perhaps he is going to start an all-point guard team. Or maybe he saw Barea guard LeBron in the finals and mistook him for a small forward. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how the minutes are dished out in Minnesota this year. From the looks of the preseason though, Rubio is looking like the leading candidate.

Jimmer Fredette- Similar to the Rubio situation, I find it hard to figure out where Jimmer will find minutes in Sacramento.

Gilbert Arenas- He wasn’t very effective last year and Orlando gave him the amnesty. Perhaps a change of scenery gives Gil a boost.

Andre Miller- With Ty Lawson in charge, Miller’s production is an unknown.

Mid-Season Upside-

Jarrett Jack- A solid player who may have just landed in the perfect situation in New Orleans. With Chris Paul gone Jack will be running the show. It may take a few weeks to get going, but paired with Eric Gordon, Jack could be a surprise player this year.

Norris Cole- He won’t have the starting job this season. But word from the Heat camp is that he has impressed thus far. With Mario Chalmers lacking consistency, if Cole can prove his worth, he may find his way to a starting role next to LeBron, Wade and Bosh. Assist please.

Jeff Teague- Teague really turned it on in the playoffs this past year and probably landed the starting give in Atlanta. That being said, I say it takes him a bit to find a regular season groove.

Avery Bradley- No, there is no chance that he finds a way to steal minutes from Rondo, but if the trade rumors turn into reality and Boston starts its rebuilding process. Bradley could benefit from a starting gig mid-season.

Kemba Walker- D.J. Augustin was the starter last season and I expect him to start this year as well. I have a feeling thought the MJ is hot on Kemba and wants to see him take the reigns ASAP.

Mo Williams/Eric Bledsoe- Chris Paul heading to the Clips was bad news for both Williams and Bledsoe. But, if Paul goes down with an injury one of these two will gain some playing time on a loaded and talented young team.

Jerryd Bayless- Bayless has shown flashes of talent in the past and if Jose Calderon were to get injured, Bayless could wind up putting up big numbers in Toronto.

Mid-Season Downside-

Ramon Sessions- He’ll be battling for the starting gig with Kyrie Irving at the start of the year. By the end of it he will have handed the spot over to the top pick in the draft.

Mario Chalmers- He just got an extension, but if he doesn’t produce he has to worry about the rookie Norris Cole taking minutes off the bench.

D.J. Augustin- If Kemba shows up to play, D.J. will lose.

Washed Up-

Derek Fisher- A name you recognize but a name you should avoid.

Mike Bibby- Hobbling for a ring.

Kirk Hinrich- Aging vet recovering from an injury. Expect him to come back slowly.