Bangkok Pundit

Public forum on 'International Perceptions of Thailand’s Crisis' to be held on July 21

2009-07-16T23:59:00.000+07:00

The forum will be held by Chulalongkorn's Institute of Security and International Studies. Speakers will include President of the FCCT, Executive Director of the American Chamber of Commerce (Thailand), representative of JBIC and the Ambassador of Argentina. Details are below for those interested.

When?
Tuesday, 21 July 2009 at 9.30 am – 12.00 pm

Where?
The Chumbhot-Pantip Conference Room,
4th Floor Prajadhipok-Rambhaibarni Building
Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University
Henry Dunant Rd., Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330

BP: Map is available as PDF here although have uploaded this map which is better as it includes the street names and Chula buildings in Thai.

Agenda
09.00 – 09.30 am Registration and Refreshments
09.30 – 09.40 am Welcome Remarks
Dr. Charas Suwanmala
Dean, Faculty of Political Science,
Chulalongkorn University

09.40 – 11.10 am Speakers
Mr. Marwaan Macan-Markar
Southeast Asia Correspondent
Inter Press Service (IPS)

Ms. Karen Percy
Southeast Asia Correspondent
Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC)

Ms. Judy Benn
Executive Director
The American Chamber of Commerce (Thailand)

Mr. Yuhei Ohmi
Chief Representative
Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC),

H.E. Mr. Felipe Frydman
Ambassador
The Embassy of the Argentine Republic , Thailand

Moderator
Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak
Director, ISIS
Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn

11.10 am - 12.00 pm Open Discussion

How to Register?
Contact staff for reservation:
Tel: 02-218-7432 – 3,
fax: 02.254.0119, or
e-mail: isisthailand@gmail.com

You are meant to RSVP by July 17.

BP: See the ISIS website for some forms.

Daily Links 07/16/2009 (a.m.)

2009-07-16T12:30:00.001+07:00

[The Nation] PAD: Don't Intimidate Investigators!
[New Politics Party secretary-general Suriyasai Katasila called on the government not to isolate the police team working on the case, saying it must draw a clear line between not interfering and leaving them isolated.

Thanee's team had taken the right path in finding the culprits in the attack of Sondhi, who also believed his attackers were men in uniform, Suriyasai said.

"What we worry about is whether the government will support this police team and make sure that this is not a phoney fight, especially when Thanee has revealed that some investigators let out secrets and there have been high-powered groups trying to intimidate investigators," he said.]

BP: And does not intimidating investigators extend to those officers investigating the PAD?
tags: pad
[Bangkok Post] MATICHON Editorial
[Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's visit to Buri Ram province last Saturday was clear proof that national reconciliation remains a distant dream.

Democrat Party members may claim success for their leader's eight-hour stay in the northeastern province, but we wonder if the trip would have gone smoothly without the heavy presence of security officials deployed to protect the prime minister.]

BP: This is why Abhisit would be better served going to any area where the Dems are at least popular. We seem to be going from the extreme of Abhisit to having no security to having 4,000 security officials. Can't they find a middle ground? Also, if the red shirts act like idiots on such a visit then it only helps Abhisit.
tags: no_tag
[Bangkok Post] THAI RATH COLUMNISTMUD LEK (IRON FIST)
[Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva cannot claim that his visit last Saturday to the northeastern province of Buri Ram was a success.
...
In fact, it was Mr Newin who scored political points last Saturday. Mr Abhisit's presence helped restore Mr Newin's confidence after two shocking defeats at the hands of the opposition Puea Thai Party in two by-elections in Sakon Nakhon and Si Sa Ket provinces last month.

Mr Abhisit did not look prime ministerial because he could not identify with the locals. I did not see him mingle with the crowds and exchange pleasantries with them. Instead, he was constantly surrounded by security officials].

BP: As couldn't really understand how the visit would help the Dems in the medium or long-term, was also wondering if Abhisit's visit was to benefit Newin (or at least Newin thought it would), but dismissed it as Newin using Abhisit made no sense. Anyone with a theory of how? Outside of Buriram and surrounding provinces, isn't Newin in a little bit of trouble up against the Thaksin machine?
tags: no_tag
[The Nation] Govt to organise TV pool to counter the campaign seeking a royal pardon - Nationmultimedia.com
[The government will explain to the public via the TV pool that the signature campaign seeking a royal pardon for ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra is in contrary to the law and the prescribed procedures.

"The prime minister has instructed Justice Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga to appear in a live broadcast to warn about the wrongful campaign," PM's Office Minister Satit Wongnongtaey said on Thursday.

Pirapan is expected to clarify that a royal pardon is granted only to a convicted who has served part of the punishment and that only a convict is allowed to submit a pardon petition, Satit said.]

BP: Section 191 of the Constitution states "[t]he King has the prerogative to grant a pardon". Up until now, the words "inappropriate" and "should not" have been used as to imply that morally or politically it should not be done. So which law is being breached by the petition? Or it is merely a "wrong campaign"? (i.e the govt disagrees with it)
tags: no_tag

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Why So Many Red Shirt Papers?

2009-07-16T10:00:00.001+07:00

The Nation:

Somyot Pruksakasemsuk, a leader of the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD), said the publications were similar to the many factions within the red movement. And those with inconsistent content reflected the fact that red factions were in discord and that each needed to sell their ideas and ideologies to the supporters.

But fellow DAAD leader Jaran Ditapichai disagreed. He insisted there was no rift among the reds and that differences among the red publications just showed the different ways each faction presented itself.

For Maineaung Kor Kuntee, a red-shirt poet and writer with Thong Dang (Red Flag), each faction used its publication as a tool to serve itself. They delivered ideas that were denied or ignored by the major factions.

"Who knows if in the future each red-publication may attack each other," Maineaung said.

So how different are these red publications?

Most can be described as "pro-Thaksin" and "pro-democracy." However, this doesn't mean that pro-Thaksin publications can't be anti-democracy and vice versa.

BP: What? Where is "they are all lackey papers of the evil one" so we should dismiss them? An interesting story which looks at the rise of the red media and the different ideological views.

Photo of the Day: Kasit and Abhisit, Caption Required

2009-07-16T06:00:00.000+07:00

What is going through Kasit's mind?

H1N1 Panic and Abhisit

2009-07-15T10:00:00.000+07:00

There is a certain amount of panic regarding H1N1 (ie swine flu) that is bordering on hysteria. The Opposition and the media have been critical of the government for their lack of action although offer few practical solutions of their own. This has been compounded by government officials and Ministers sending mixed messages over H1N1 - bizarre suggestion by Chula doctors to close the country - which was also dismissed.. There has been this odd focus on flu masks and the need to shut down schools as the Bangkok Post illustrates:

City Hall has ordered the temporary closure of its schools despite scepticism from the cabinet that the measure will curb the spread of A (H1N1) flu.

All 435 schools, as well as 200 daycare centres and 13 vocational training centres run by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA), will be shut from today to Sunday. But schools in Bangkok and other provinces run by the Education Ministry will remain open.
...
The BMA plans to distribute 2 million face masks to city residents and it will encourage Bangkokians to wear the protective gear in public areas, whether or not they have the disease.

"This is the best prevention measure," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said.

Bangkok MPs and councillors will be asked to distribute 10,000 face masks to constituents by the end of this week.

City Hall's decision to close schools went against the cabinet resolution which vetoed proposals to close schools nationwide and call an early end to the current semester. It said the measure would not stop the flu's spread.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said after the cabinet meeting he did not think school closures would end virus transmission among children who would likely hang out in other crowded places such as online game shops and shopping malls when they were off school.

"The most effective way to curb infections is keeping sick people at home," the prime minister said.

Speaking on a special programme on the A (H1N1) outbreak broadcast live on government-run Channel 11 last night, Mr Abhisit did not rule out the possibility of ordering a nationwide closure of schools and other public places at some future date.

"But such measures will be implemented only when the situation is right. Over-reacting will do more harm than good," he said.

Mr Abhisit said the government is focusing on screening and improving treatment for very ill flu patients.

BP: First, Abhisit and the Cabinet is right. Abhisit was polite, but he was dismissive of the idea (the Deputy Governor had been interviewed on Channel 11 in one of the segments prior to Abhisit). He specifically said then they would lose "control" of the students. He said it would be better to check the temperature of every student and the send the sick ones home. He emphasized the need to exercise personal responsibility and stay home. BMA is simply acting as the want to be seen to be doing something, but they should have heeded what the Cabinet was doing.

Second, this flu mask emphasis is irresponsible. The best prevention is washing your hands or using an appropriate alcohol-based sanitizer. This is not to say that flu masks don't have their uses in certain circumstances (e.g for those who have the flu, in confined spaces etc), but most flu masks do not meet the necessary standard, are not worn properly, and need to be changed regularly to be effective. They also instill a false sense of security. See NYT, Slate, BBC, and ABC News. Abhisit mentioned that last point which is the first time, BP has seen it mentioned in the Thai media. Unfortunately, he didn't stress hand-washing specifically

No doubt Abhisit will be criticized for his lack of action, but he was calm and collected last night and explained through examples and facts why the government was taking the position it was. It was clear he had read up on the issue and knew what he was talking about - not that he was being thrown hardball by the interviewer (hey it is the state-run Channel 11!).. Abhisit communicated the basic ideas and was fairly good. He also communicated some practical points (e.g if you have a fever/flu-like symptoms stay at home for the first 2 days and if symptoms continues on day 3 see a doctor). The surge in people seeking medical treatment will overwhelm capacity otherwise.

Kasit is Not a Member of the PAD?

2009-07-15T06:00:00.000+07:00

The Nation:

Kasit is not a member of the PAD. He is only its sympathiser. A retired diplomat, Kasit appeared on the PAD's stage from time to time to expose ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's wrongdoings. If Kasit were to be fully charged with an act of terrorism, all the other core leaders of the PAD would have to face a similar damaging charge. This would amount to jamming the brakes on the New Politics Party, which could potentially become a medium-sized political party in the next election.

BP: Not a member of the PAD? Kasit has appeared at the FCCT to put the PAD case forward as Pravit in The Nation has noted:

One of the speakers, Kasit Piromya, was introduced by the FCCT moderator as a de-facto spokeman for the PAD. The fact he is currently a shadow deputy prime minister appointed by the Democrat Party was not mentioned.

To be fair, the double hat worn by Kasit was later pointed out by no less than Democrat Party deputy leader Korn Chatikavanij, who was also on the panel.

BP: Supalak in The Nation has also referred to Kasit as being a member ("new minister Kasit, an active member of the PAD before taking the office") He has appeared on TV in the foreign media to argue the PAD case as a "PAD advisor". Is The Nation trying to create some distance, which doesn't exist, from Kasit and the PAD? It is fair to point out that Kasit was not a PAD leader, but do not see why the semantic distinction to say he is not a member.

On the issue of whether "[i]f Kasit were to be fully charged with an act of terrorism, all the other core leaders of the PAD would have to face a similar damaging charge", aren't all the core leaders of PAD facing the same fate?

Daily Links 07/14/2009 (p.m.)

2009-07-15T00:30:00.001+07:00

[The Nation] Court dismisses PAD's counter lawsuit claiming trumped-up terrorism charge - Nationmultimedia.com
[The Criminal Court on Tuesday cited a lack of cause for judicial review to throw out a counter lawsuit claiming police fabricated terrorism charge related to the Suvarnabhumi Airport seizure in December.

In countering the police work on the airport seizure case, People's Alliance for Democracy co-leader Chaiwat Sinsuwong petitioned for a judicial review.
...
The lower court ruled that the investigative team, led by assistant national police chief Lt General Wuth Puawet, had acted within the vested mandate and followed the Criminal Procedural Code in filing the charges.]

BP: Things no longer going the PAD's way?
tags: pad

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Was Thaksin in Malaysia?

2009-07-14T20:11:00.002+07:00

Deputy Interior Minister Thaworn said he was, Thaksin's lawyer confirmed it, and Thaksin himself did in his interview with a radio station in Udon..... but the Malaysians deny he was there as The Star reports:

Former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is now a fugitive, was never in Malaysia nor was he given any protection by the Special Branch as he has claimed, Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Musa Hassan said.

Musa said Malaysian police had no knowledge of any visit by Thaksin, despite earlier reports quoting Deputy Interior Minister Thaworn Senneam as saying Thaksin had been spotted in Malaysia recently, but left the country before he could be arrested by the authorities.

Thaworn said Thai embassy officials had informed the Malaysian authorities to seek Thaksin’s arrest and extradition.

“We were only alerted by the Thai embassy here of the fugitive’s supposed presence early this month following a news report in Bangkok.

“As far as we are concerned, he was never in the country and we did not send 20 Special Branch officers to protect him. We have checked with local hotels, Immigration and other sources, and there is no evidence to show that he was ever here,’’ he said.

BP: That reference to the 20 Special Branch officers was in relation to what Thaksin said in the radio interview (actually he said 15 as per a transcript of the interview and not 20 as The Nation reported), but neither Thaworn or Thaksin came looking good given the Malaysian denial. So will Thaksin provide evidence that he was in Malaysia? The Malaysian answer "[a]s far as we are concerned" has the ring non-denial denial.

Random Thoughts on Kasit

2009-07-14T10:00:00.000+07:00

1. Puea Thai don't actually want Kasit to resign as he is a millstone around the government's neck. While they may call for him to resign, secretly they hope the longer he stays, the more it hurts the government.

2. What is Kasit guilty of? Bad judgment or a criminal offence? There may be sufficient evidence that some PAD leaders or supporters committed a terrorist act, but did Kasit? Proving that someone committed a terrorist act is very difficult. We haven't been told specifically what did Kasit say before the airport takeover? Is he been accused of directly committing a terrorist act? Conspiring to commit a terrorist fact? (Section 135/2) Or being an accessory or supporter? (Section 135/3). So far we know he did speak on the PAD stage after the airport had been taken over, but it would be a slippery scope if merely speaking on a stage constitutes conspiracy or being an accessory. Hopefully, we will see more details on this.

3. There is talk that Kasit may resign after the ASEAN summit in Phuket next week. Abhisit himself has mentioned that the ABAC poll, where 60% of people agreed that Kasit should resign, that a majority thought he should do so after the ASEAN Summit (46% said immediately whereas 54% said after the ASEAN Summit as per the poll). Abhisit was almost signaling that Kasit may resign after the Summit. Now, since Thailand is the Chairman of ASEAN and the Summit is being held next week, it seems reasonable to argue that it would be disruptive if he would resign this week. However, if he is actually going to resign after the Summit, why not even more directly hint at this or specifically state so now? That he hasn't resigned is a political issue which will just drag on. The question on whether he will resign no longer seems to be if, but rather when so say now.

4. It almost seems to BP that because he has been summoned over terrorism charges, he doesn't want to resign, but to stay put and "fight" whereas if he had been merely charged with a lesser offence he may be less combative and resigned.

Patiwat Prachochoen and Coups

2009-07-14T07:30:00.000+07:00

Schott's Vocab blogs on the term ปฏิวัติประชาชน, although probably needs to be การปฏิวัติประชาชน to be grammatically correct, used by Thaksin during the Songkran mayhem. It relies on Bloomberg's rough translation of "people's coup".

BP: Is it people's coup or people's revolution? Jon Fernquest commented at New Mandala:

What a semiotic jungle the word ปฏิวัติ is. When I first heard it after the 2006 coup, I replied, don’t you mean รัฐประหาร. I thought that maybe using the word “revolution” for “coup” was casting it in positive light but Thaksin uses this way too in the given quote. Then there is การปฏิวัติ ประชาชน which surely can’t mean coup of the people, but before the 1992 so-called People’s Revolution many elements of the Bangkok middle class sympathized with the military and coup as they did in 2006 although they later changed their minds. If current events are simply the latest manifestation of the “Tale of Two Democracies” phenomenon, then what “People” does การปฏิวัติ ประชาชน refer to? Thailand is a divided nation. As always, more accurate demographics seems to be called for.

BP: When they stage a coup, the military always state or it is reported that it was actually a ปฏิวัติ or revolution as if to imply something romantic on what took place and that there was going to be change. รัฐประหาร or coup would be more accurate for the military did in 2006 and in the past, but the military have successfully instilled the term revolution in the public mindsight. Hence, Thaksin and others are trying to use the term "people's revolution", but then as Fernquest notes isn't "people's revolution" just a euphemism as well given the country is divided?

btw, BP's mind has gone blank, but there is a doctoral dissertation out there which in the opening section looked at the semantics of the Thai military in using the term ปฏิวัติ. Anyone remember the title?

btw, surely the classic is the term "surgical strike".

Sondhi L Facing Securities Charges

2009-07-13T14:00:00.000+07:00

Too busy to translate in full, but Matichon reports that Sondhi L is facing criminal charges over a breach of the Securities and Exchange Commission Act dating back to 1996 and 1997 when he was a director of the Manager Group and made false statements.

BP: The Matichon report notes that Sondhi L in the past had claimed he was a victim of political persecution over this case for criticizing Democrat Finance Minister Tarin and being a supporter of Thaksin. Oh, have times a changed.... The case is before the court at the moment and Matichon was only alerted it when Sondhi L requested the court on July 10 delay the questioning of witnesses as he was still recovering. The court approved the request and will take up the matter again in October.

A question raised at the end of the Matichon report is whether this will affect Sondhi L's ability to become party leader of the New Politics Party...

There are plenty of interesting details in the article for anyone who wants to do a quick translation.

Do People Have Faith in the Justice System?

2009-07-13T11:59:00.000+07:00

From Thai Rath and Bangkok Post as summarized below:

A Suan Dusit poll surveyed 1,104 people nationwide between July 6-9.

The poll found that when referring to the justice system 61% think of the judiciary, 25% think of the Ministry of Justice, 7% think of the police, 5% think of public prosecutors, and 4% the Department of Corrections. 40% have confidence and trust the judiciary, 27% in public prosecutors, 19% in the Department of Corrections, and (drumroll please....) 15% in the police.

[NOTE: This doesn't mean that only xxx of people have confidence in each of the above entities. They are only asked to choose one they have confidence in.]

When asked whether they had confidence in the ongoing legal proceedings against PAD over the airport takeovers and that the proceedings would be fair and transparent, 41.86% said no, 30% said they were unsure, and 28% said yes.

When asked whether they had confidence in the ongoing legal proceedings against UDD over the violence at Songkran and that the proceedings would be fair and transparent, 37% said no, 33% are unsure, and 31% are confident.

When asked whether they thought there were two standards, 59% said yes and said there should be one standard, 26% said that there should be confidence and respect in the judiciary system, and 15% were unsure.

In addition, 55% of people disagree with the government taking over/exercising more control over the cases of both the reds and the yellows, 30% agree.

BP: One should be careful to note that justice system is broader than just the judiciary. The above poll reflects red anger over what they see as double standards, but also more recently yellow anger over what they see as Thaksin's cronies in the police summoning them.

NOTE: Am still busy for the next few days so will try then to get to the ABAC poll on the pardon for Thaksin- see The Nation's article here with those in favour could roughly be seen as Puea Thais supporters and those against coalition supporters - on the weekend.

There is also a second poll on "support" for the government, which parties people will vote for, and support of different governement policies - see articles in The Nation and the Bangkok Post - surprisingly, it is The Nation which has more accurately translated the poll based on what the Thai language papers have reported on it.

Chang Noi on Moderation Society

2009-07-13T09:00:00.000+07:00

Have already blogged on ISOC's latest ad campaign, Chang Noi's lastest op-ed on the ISOC moderation society campaign is up at The Nation now. Key excerpt:

The Army has long dished out PR on its own importance. After the 2006 coup, it poured men and money into a campaign to influence the hearts and minds of the Thaksinite North and Northeast. This moso campaign represents a new frontier - an attempt to influence society as a whole through public media.

The campaign seems to be aimed primarily at urban youth. The website has the pastel colours, Japanese-style graphics and flashing gizmos that characterise Thai teen web-boards and the like.

The multicolour cartoon ads and the pop endorsements are straining for hipness. The cuteness of the "mo-so" mnemonic and the use of English are probably meant to have trendy appeal.

It's ambitious, but what chance does it have of working?

This is advertising. An ad has to tell people what the product is and why they should want it. To be successful, an ad usually needs to be focused and clear.

Does this campaign have these basic qualities? Is it about sufficiency, or the moderation society, or sustainable thinking? In the minds of the originators, these may be all about the same thing. But for the consumer, this is confusing.

The use of English is like, cool, but it is also a barrier to easy understanding. What exactly is a "moderation society" in English anyway? It's hardly a term in everyday international use.

Is Ad's lifestyle - choppers, cockfighting, concerts that disintegrate into brawls - a guide to moderation?

How many people understand the Thai word used for "immunity", a medical term most people would never use in their lifetime.

Even the word for "rationality" has a slightly academic feel to it. Is this the language of the street? The formula of "Mindfulness + Rationality = Immunity" is also not so easy to compute.

Most of all, does the campaign have a compelling reason for the consumer to buy? To put it simply, what's in it for us? What's in it for the people who have not been acting so moderately lately?

BP: It is just a number of buzz words mixed.

Nick Nositz Book Launch at FCCT

2009-07-13T06:00:00.003+07:00

Nick Nositz's new book Red vs. Yellow, Volume 1: Thailand's Crisis of Identity will be launched at the FCCT this Wednesday (July 15 at 8pm). Blurb and cover below:

Red vs. Yellow, Volume 1: Thailand's Crisis of Identity, both in photos and in text, describes the political turmoil and violent street protests that took place during the first elected administration after the 2006/2007 coup led by the PPP (People Power Party), a place holder party of the TRT (Thai Rak Thai) which had been ousted by the military putch.

The anti-government and nationalist-royalist PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy) entered Government House, the seat of Thailand 's cabinet, and occupied it for months, before its protests culminated in the invasion of Bangkok's airports, the dissolution of the PPP and the overthrow of the government by forces seen as sympathetic to the PAD.

In the course of the year the police, the PAD and their opponents – the Red Shirts, an alliance of government supporters and pro-democracy groups – clashed on several occasions. Incidents, which at times involved shocking violence, laid bare Thailand's long neglected social, political and regional divisions and left it a deeply unstable nation.

Nick Nostitz covers this significant period of Thai history from the center of events. His articles on which this book is based caused considerable controversy when first published.

Academic Chris Baker will also join the evening for Q&A.

Books will also be available for sale on that night, priced 895 Baht.

BP: This is a *free* event. Given his excellent posts at New Mandala, this book should be worth reading. It should be noted that this is Volume 1 and a second book including the clashes in Bangkok over the Songkran Holiday is forthcoming. If you want to help support an independent voice and have enjoyed his posts at New Mandala then would highly recommend purchasing his book.

For those who can't make it or who are overseas, it is available from White Lotus Press directly, DCO, and Chula bookstore.

Daily Links 07/12/2009 (a.m.)

2009-07-12T12:30:00.001+07:00

[Bangkok Post] Rebels killed 115 teachers since 2004
[Lekha Issara, from Ban Po Meng in tambon Kayuboko of Yala's Raman district, was killed on June 16, the latest teacher to fall victim to separatist attacks.

She was the 115th teacher in the three southern border provinces to have been killed.]
tags: insurgency

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Stage-Managed Visit Impresses The Nation

2009-07-12T06:00:00.000+07:00

The Nation with an article where the sub-heading is "Boost for Democrat hopes of breakthrough in Northeast"

The unstinting welcome for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in Buri Ram yesterday has raised the Democrat Party's hopes of planting its flag in the stronghold of Newin Chidchob, a core leader of its coalition partner Bhum Jai Thai Party.

Though Abhisit's choice of Buri Ram as the first province on his tour of the northeastern region has aroused much controversy and conflict within his party, colleagues were confident the visit would boost his popularity, which is already high there.

Wongnongtaey, a senior figure in the ruling Democrat Party, described the trip as "very satisfactory" given the warm welcome the prime minister got from the locals.

Abhisit, however, said only: "The inspection of the area was fine" when questioned by reporters after returning to Bangkok in the evening.

Newin did not show up while Abhisit was in the province. Abhisit said Newin had not needed to as they had kept in phone contact.

A source close to Abhisit said Newin had stayed away because he did not want to be seen as trying to steal the show or invite criticism that the PM was visiting Newin's stronghold to boost his clout.

Democrat Party Ubon Ratchathani MP Supachai Srila said the party estimated that Abhisit's job-approval rating in the northeastern region was more than 70 per cent and the party was expected to win at least 15 parliamentary seats in the region in the next general election.

BP: Seriously? 70% his nationwide ratings are not even 70%. Talking up your chances can be expected, but this is just hyperbole. On the Democrat's chances in the Northeast, Korn said it best at the FCCT last year:

Question by Jonathan Head of BBC to Korn: Why are the Democrats always unable to win more votes in the Northeast?

Answer by Korn: I can tell you what is not the issue. People like to divide the camps into rural and urban. The majority of the southern voters are rural. The popularity of Thaksin in the North and Northeast is undeniable. It is also undeniable that traditionally they have been less politically active then southerners. It is also undeniable that money politics is less prevalent. We we have less money than PPP. However I agree with Chris [Baker], money "is the price you pay to play the game but it doesn't dictate whether if you win or lose". "If a candidate today in Loei runs under the Democrat banner for him to try to win he would need to spend two or three times more than his PPP opponent in order to win and even then he still might lose.

This is exactly what happened in the last election. "A number of former TRT MPs defected to Puea Paendin and they outpsent PPP three to one and they still lost". This goes along way to confirming what Chris said, but money is no longer determinative of your success. What Thaksin did was to make that connection and make it directly relevant to his target group. We are less afraid to compete against vote-buying than the buying of MPs. I still believe at the end of the day that if you sold your vote it is still your decision in the ballot box. However, it would be very ineffective for the Democrats to buy a Northeastern MP. Simply at the end of the day we cannot go against the will of the people and no amount of money will help

BP: To be honest, BP is unsure on what the long-term gain will be for the Dems by Abhisit's visit to Buriram. There is some limited short-term gain, but just look at the photo which accompanies The Nation's article with all the people lined up in a straight line along the road. They are just standing where they have been told to stand. Also see this video from Matichon, particularly the last couple of minutes, and see the lack of emotion on people's faces as Abhisit speaks.

Yes, Newin stayed away, but the visit was already associated with Newin and Bhum Jai Thai (Interior Minister and BJT Thai leader was right next to Abhisit).

The idea of Abhisit visiting the Northeast is a good idea on many levels, but it is the choosing of Buriram which makes the least sense politically. Yes, for security it makes sense, but even Surin or some other BJT province would be better and they could have ensured security given the thousands of security staff. Why not Ubon Ratchathani where the Democrats have a couple of MPs (it is the province on the right-hand side of the map next to Laos and Cambodia)? There would have been no link to Newin or Bhum Jai Thai. Wouldn't this have helped the Democrat's brand more? There best chance is not up the upper Northeast, it is the urban areas in the lower Northeast.* Not all the papers reported the visit as The Nation did, see Thailand Politics' post.

*Yes, yes, Buriram is part of the lower Northeast, but this is Newin country. At the 2007 General Election, the top 3 vote-getters in Buriram Constituency 1 where PPP candidates and all 3 got in the 76,000-79,000 range. As later in The Nation's article notes, this is the Constituency where the Democrats see they have a "very good chance" of winning, but the highest-placing Democrat in 2007 received only 18,500 votes. The only chance they have is if Newin hands the seat to them.

Daily Links 07/11/2009 (a.m.)

2009-07-11T12:30:00.001+07:00

[AFP] Myanmar ophans flee to uncertain refuge in Thailand
[A sudden offensive against ethnic Karen rebels by Myanmar's military junta has caused what aid groups say is the biggest exodus of refugees from Myanmar since 1997, with some 4,000 people fleeing for safety since the start of June.

Just weeks ago the group of 96 destitute orphans fled their children's home in Myanmar to the sound of mortar shells and crossed into Thailand.]
tags: Burma
[AFP] Thailand bans protests in Phuket at ASEAN meeting
["I am telling all parties.... No kind of rally is allowed in Phuket. We will not designate an area for demonstration, we will not allow protest representatives to show up or mount a road blockade -- even peaceful rallies are not allowed," defence minister General Prawit Wongsuwon told reporters.]

BP: Slight overkill?
tags: no_tag

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Daily Links 07/10/2009 (p.m.)

2009-07-11T00:30:00.001+07:00

[Bangkok Post] Mingkwan: Thai PM must be economic expert
[In the midst of economic crisis, Thailand will need the government leader who has expertise in economic and capability to tackle the pressing problems of the country, former deputy prime minister and commerce minister, Mingkwan Saengsuwan, said on Friday morning.

His remark was made during a seminar on “Clear the Country’s Debt, Create Income for the People” held this morning at a hotel in Chiang Mai by the opposition Puea Thai Party.]

BP: He is saying, pick me! Reports that Puea Thai will keep some figurehead until closer to the election as they are worried about another party ban/dissolution. Mingkwan seems to be putting his hand up.
tags: no_tag

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Daily Links 07/10/2009 (a.m.)

2009-07-10T12:30:00.001+07:00

[Bangkok Post] Thaksin Does the South Pacific
"Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra flew to the Pacific islands this week, a Tongan government official says.

"He was here on Tuesday," the Tongan official, who did not wish to be named, said yesterday, adding he understood Thaksin left on Wednesday for Fiji.

"He talked to someone at foreign affairs, who looked after him."

The official did not give any further information on the purpose of the visit."
tags: thaksin

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

PAD Views on Conflicts of Interests

2009-07-10T10:00:00.000+07:00

A few weeks ago PAD's official English language mouthpiece TANN had an op-ed as follows:

We must try to purge Thailand of corruption, particularly among politicians so any laws that do that must be supported. It may seem like the politicians are being picked on by these nitty-gritty laws but anything to keep them from dipping into the cookie jar. And enough already with the excuse that they forgot they have these shares. If they can't be responsible for getting their financial affairs in order before assuming office, how can we trust them with our future? Politics is not child's play so politicians have to beware of what they're getting into and get their house in order. That means washing their hands off any shares in private companies. It's simple enough!

The Nation:

The Election Commission received reports alleging that the wife of Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya holds shares in Bangkok Expressway Plc, EC secretary-general Suthiphon Thaveechaiygarn said Thursday.

The EC was due to meet and decide on the case next Thursday, Suthiphon said.

BP: So does his wife hold shares?

Our Protectors Against the Brothel of Treacherous Criminals

2009-07-10T09:00:00.001+07:00

From a press release from the lese majeste complaint against the FCCT with some help from an Englishman. Key excerpt:

In addition to the charges under article 112 of Thai Criminal Law further charges are to be filed this day against Thaksin Shinawatra, Jakrapob Penkhair, Veera Musikapong, Nattawoot Saikuea, Jatuporn Prompan, Marwaan Macan-Makar, Jonathan Head, other FCCT directors and UDD members that are implicated in crimes against the nation. Criminal Code articles 107, 113, 114, 116, 133, 135/1, 210, 213, 215, 217, 220, 288 and 289 are all used and each of the accused will have at least 2 or more of the aforementioned articles filed against them. Instant action is demanded as the cases expose a co-ordinated gang of conspirators committing acts of treason and concealment that not only threaten the Kingdom of Thailand and her national security but also insult Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II and the constitutional monarchy of the United Kingdom of Great Britain that she reigns (not rules). Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II is protected by article 133 of Thai Criminal Law.
...
Many British nationals were shocked and outraged at how Mr Jakrapob rudely lashed out at Her Highness Queen Elizabeth II from the FCCT stage stating amongst other things that Tony Blair had put her in her place, Mr Jakrapob was questioned by a British national and forced to concede that like the presenter of the event he had very poor knowledge regarding the Great British Monarchical Democracy and that most of what he knew he learned by watching a movie. Mr Jakrapob arrogantly stated that Thaksin only had some loyalty for the monarchy.

BP: Come on friendly farang translator and ex-FCCT member, did u need to bring QEII into this? The Queen is available on DVD in department stores in Bangkok, you know? You are not going to take away our ability to mock Charles, also covered under Section 133, are you?

Will someone make a complaint against The Nation? If so, would Thanong and Co. finally conclude that a rethink of the law related to defamation of the royal family and heads of state is needed?

Ok, ok, this excerpt also can't be missed:

FCCT Board Further Charged with Article #210 “Criminal Conspiracy to destabilize National Security”

This means that the FCCT has acted as a “Den of Conspirators” or more literally as a “Brothel of Treacherous Criminals”. One article in this group of laws has in the past been used against Chinese Triad organizations that threatened the nation and now similar articles in this case apply to the FCCT, this means that directors involved in acts that destabilize national security are by legal definition Criminals; not Correspondents.

BP: BP needs a drink to read the rest of it...

This cracks BP up to "[a]lthough due to the dissemination efforts of the FCCT board the content is widely known...". Does he not comprehend that the LM complaint against Jakrapob initially spread news of what Jakrapob said? Otherwise, it would have been just to a footnote in history. Aren't "our protectors" further helping the distribution of this material?

Moving towards a Principled Foreign Policy?

2009-07-10T06:00:00.002+07:00

UPDATE: Just saw that Fonzi blogged on this last week.

Last week, Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun had an op-ed in the Bangkok Post making some valid criticism of Thaksin's foreign policy, but then concluding:

Under the Abhisit administration, Thai foreign policy has undergone an extreme makeover. The Democrat-led government has rejected Thaksin's business-first mentality and re-introduced a seemingly principle-based foreign policy. This time principle, not profit, represents the mainstay of Thai diplomacy.

BP: Remember those words "extreme makeover" and "principle-based foreign policy".

Op-ed continues:

By denouncing Thaksin's past initiatives, the current government hopes it would also de-legitimise his foreign policy - a much-needed strategy to alienate Thaksin further from Thai political circles.

BP: Wasn't it a principled-based foreign policy? Or is it really just past of a strategy?

Op-ed continues:

Members of the academia and local media seem to have embraced Mr Abhisit's new direction in Thai foreign policy. His government has spent the past six months fixing the country's diplomatic missteps caused by Thaksin and his cronies.

BP: That members of academic and the local media would embrace someone other than Thaksin is hardly surprising.

Op-ed continues:

Thailand's cosy relations with her immediate neighbours, during the Thaksin years, were mostly built on personal relations, and sometimes did not necessarily reflect national interests. The Abhisit administration has re-invented Thai foreign policy to become more accountable, especially in the year Thailand is chairing Asean.

Because his government has no record of civilian supremacy, injecting a democratic principle in foreign policy might just redeem a sense of legitimacy it sorely needs in these hours of political turbulence.

Last month, the government issued a statement, on behalf of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, voicing grave concern at the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi, in which she is charged with violating her house arrest rules by allowing American John Yettaw into her residence. Thailand saw the need to toughen its stance and that of Asean vis-a-vis the Burmese junta to prove the country's respect for democracy - a position extolled by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

BP: It has been fair to say there has been a shift in the rhetoric in Thailand (which BP does agree with), but Thailand took this position as the head of ASEAN. ASEAN itself has been slowly moving towards a harder line on Burma over the last 10 years. Is the new government approach an "extreme makeover"? An extreme makeover would be to deny Burma the natural resource revenue, impose sanctions, and/or do something which substantially affects the Burmese junta. A change in rhetoric is arguably a step in the right direction, but it is not some extreme makeover.

Op-ed continues:

Burma's response to the Thai statement was predictable. It reproached Asean's statement and criticised Thailand for breaching the non-interference rule. What followed was the Burmese army's attacks on the Karen National Union which disturbed the Thai-Burmese border by the influx of Burmese refugees fleeing the fighting, probably as punishment for Thailand's hard-line policy towards Rangoon.

BP: So it launched the response on the KNU to "punish" Thailand? The Economist's take:

The reasons for the junta’s sudden haste are typically murky. It is preparing for parliamentary elections next year, the first since an annulled 1990 poll, and wants around 17 ethnic rebel groups that have signed ceasefires to take part. The Karen National Union (KNU), the movement’s political wing, is a holdout. The generals, who want to consolidate power and neutralise armed threats, have proposed turning ethnic insurgents into border guards, under their command. They may reckon that the KNU can be similarly corralled. But a crushing military defeat would do just fine.

The offensive also appears timed to divert attention from the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi, the detained opposition leader. Thailand’s foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, has been more strident than most in publicly dressing down the junta about this farce, which is due to resume on June 26th. Thai diplomats suspect that its prickly neighbour is stirring trouble on the border as a poke in the eye.

BP: Surely Burmese domestic considerations make more sense than launching the offensive just to spite Thailand.

On Cambodia:

With Cambodia, Thailand may have continued to play a nationalistic card in the Preah Vihear temple case. At a deeper level, what the Abhisit government has done in "de-personalising" Thai policy towards Cambodia should be commended. Many Thai-Cambodian shady businesses were reportedly promoted by the Thaksin regime. This explains why Thai policy has often been held hostage by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.
...
More recently, Hun Sen confronted the Thai leadership, suggesting that Thailand should give up its Asean chairmanship because of its escalating domestic situation.

He himself is a devout nationalist, often speaking about the use of force against Thailand to protect so-called Cambodian sovereignty. His love for Thaksin remains evident.

BP: His love for Thaksin? Where was that love when Hun Sen cynically whipped up tensions that led to the ransacking of the Thai Embassy in Cambodia?

Op-ed continues:

The latest Thai opposition to the UN declaration at the World Heritage meeting in Spain, with a proposal that the grounds of the disputed temple be placed under joint Thai-Cambodian maintenance, could be perceived not only as a defence of Thai interests, but also a bold move in Thai diplomacy which refuses to become too elastic in accordance with the preferences of Cambodian leaders like in the past.

BP: If you are going to criticise Hun Sen for being a nationalist, how can you then defend the current government's position in relation to Preah Vihear? Is it also not nationalist? A week before Thailand decided to take its current position in relation to Preah Vihear, Abhisit went to Phnom Penh and had a bilateral with Hun Sen. He has conceded he never mentioned to Hun Sen that he was about to take this position. Is that really good diplomacy? Good diplomacy would mean you signal the position you are about to take so the other side is not surprised. This helps prevent a war of words in the media.

The government has taken a nationalist position for domestic political gain. There is nothing principled about the new government's foreign policy towards Cambodia.

Daily Links 07/09/2009 (p.m.)

2009-07-10T00:30:00.001+07:00

[Reuters] Bomb kills soldier in Thai south
[A soldier was killed by a bomb and a Muslim civilian was shot dead in the latest violence in Thailand's restive south, police said Thursday.

The bomb was detonated as troops travelled in a pickup on a patrol in the town of Yarang in Pattani province. Five soldiers were wounded.]
tags: insurgency

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

Monarchy, Economy and Politics

2009-07-08T16:30:00.002+07:00

Bloomberg:

Thailand’s prime minister pauses briefly and swallows hard as he addresses the question few of his compatriots dare contemplate: life without King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest-reigning monarch.

“I am under no illusion -- it will be a very difficult time for all of us,” says Abhisit Vejjajiva, who in December patched together a multiparty coalition government and became troubled Thailand’s fifth prime minister in four years.
...
Thailand’s need for stability has grown more acute with the emergence of a seemingly unbridgeable, color-coded societal chasm between wealthier city dwellers and those that live in the countryside -- warring factions that use symbolic hues to literally wear their allegiances on their sleeves.

BP: An interesting article, with plenty of facts and figures, which looks at the monarchy, politics, and the economy in Thailand. It is more focused on the later two, but talks about the stabilizing influence of the monarchy and hence this is why succession is important for economic and political stability.

An Innovation

2009-07-07T22:00:00.000+07:00

BBC:

Mr Kasit was seen speaking at several rallies by the Yellow Shirt protesters, who occupied the prime minister's office compound for three months and shut down Bangkok's airports.

Mr Kasit later described the blockade - which left mroe than 250,000 travellers stranded - as an "innovation in public protests".

BP: An innovation? Some innovations are bad...

h/t to someone on twitter