The International Community’s Unpleasant Options in Syria

BARIN KAYAOĞLU

27 February 2012

In the aftermath of the Russian and Chinese vetoes at the United Nations Security Council, many Western countries and their Middle Eastern allies are looking for new ways to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The “Friends of Syria” meeting held in Tunisia last week aimed to remake the Syrian National Council – a coalition comprising dozens of different opposition groups – into a more cohesive front. Foreign governments are probably laying the groundwork to recognize the Council as a “government-in-exile” in the near future. But Syria’s friends have a long way to go before they have a shot at ousting Assad.

Beyond giving political backing to the Syrian National Council, arming the Free Syrian Army seems as a more realistic option. The FSA, a militia group primarily composed of soldiers who have deserted Assad’s army, is already using Turkish territory for its activities. Thus, the Turkish government’s threats against Assad that “all options are on the table” should be read as an intention to establish “safe areas” and perhaps more.

There is no question that the international community has to do something about the tragedy in Syria. It’s been a year and over 8,000 dead Syrians since the uprisings have begun. But the countries backing anti-Assad forces in Syria would be fooling themselves if they think “safe areas” or giving more arms and ammo to the FSA will accomplish anything. Humanitarian missions in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Rwanda in the 1990s amply demonstrated that “safe areas” are half-hearted attempts that do not succeed. More important, the absence of a strong international force only emboldens the aggressor to kill more – something that the international community is supposed to prevent.

The international community should also think whether it should and could make peace through a full-scale military intervention in Syria because talking the talk of military intervention is easier than walking the walk. Russia and China have already demonstrated that they do not want Western countries, Turkey, and the Arab League in Syria. It is almost certain that Iran will mobilize its resources and assets (read: Hezbollah) to shore up its allies in Damascus. It is also certain that public opinion in the West, Turkey, and Arab countries will not support military action against Syria.

If the anti-Assad groups and their international supporters are really determined to overthrow the Baath regime, they have to see the biggest risk about post-Assad Syria: given its multi-confessional nature, foreign intervention may very well exacerbate religious discord (à la Iraq). That will put the people of Syria in a situation even worse than the present.

Half-hearted political talk will certainly not solve Syria’s tragedy. But military action does not look like the answer either.

Five Lessons from Turkey’s 1998 Standoff With Syria

BARIN KAYAOĞLU

It tends to be forgotten, but in the fall of 1998 Turkey and Syria almost went to war. The crisis started when Gen. Atilla Ates, commander of the Turkish land forces, spoke near the Syrian border on Sept. 16. Ates, called on Damascus to expel Abdullah Ocalan and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the militant group that had been fighting the Turkish government since 1984. The drums of war echoed throughout the Middle East as Turkish tanks seemed poised to roll into Syria. Unwilling to go to war, the government of Hafez al-Assad, father of the current Syrian president, complied with Ankara’s demand and expelled Ocalan. Turkey would capture its public enemy number one in February 1999, five months after Ates’ speech.

Today, Ankara’s enthusiasm for possible US airstrikes against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad makes one realize how Turkey’s Syrian odyssey has come full circle since that fateful fall of 1998.

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Middle East Prospects for Turkey Bleaker As EU Chances Weaken

BARIN KAYAOĞLU

You know Turkey’s hopes to join the European Union (EU) are in trouble when the state minister whose job is to get the country into the European club begins to have second thoughts about his mission. You may also know that Turkey’s influence in the Middle East would diminish if Ankara does not move forward with its EU bid.

The story goes like this: On Saturday, Sept. 21, Egemen Bagis, the Turkish minister for EU affairs and the chief negotiator with Brussels, declared that his country will probably not become a member of the prestigious European club. “I think Turkey will end up like Norway,” the minister said, referring to the Nordic country’s close commercial ties with, and lack of membership in, the EU.

The reason why Bagis assumed a pessimistic tone was his justified belief in European prejudices against Turkey.

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On Children’s Day in Turkey, adults set bad example

Summary: The anniversary of the opening of the Turkish parliament coincided with the centennial of an Ottoman military victory in Iraq during World War I, creating a new fault line in Turkey.

Turks recently celebrated the anniversary of the opening of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk on April 23, 1920.

Every April 23, officially known as “National Sovereignty and Children’s Day,” schoolchildren throughout Turkey enjoy a mix of politics and festivities as they sing songs, sit at the desks of high-ranking government officials — president, prime minister, Cabinet ministers, speaker of parliament, provincial governors — and issue remarks on the importance of freedom, the rule of law, national independence and representative democracy. The heartwarming spectacle nurtures hope that younglings with a tenuous understanding of lofty ideals will someday become informed citizens and dedicated public servants.

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Restart and Renewal: Taking U.S.-Turkish Trade to $50 Billion by 2025

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Is Turkey ready for global manhunt against Fethullah Gulen?

Summary: The Turkish government and its media outlets hope the new US administration will hand over the suspected mastermind of the failed coup of July 15-16, but what if Fethullah Gulen decides to play an international cat-and-mouse game with Turkey? 

BARIN KAYAOĞLU

The world is a rough place for Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) these days. Economic and political problems and domestic unrest, not to mention serious security threats in Syria and Iraq, causes major headaches for the Turkish president and his government.

But there is some positive news for Erdogan and his AKP.

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A Farewell to the West? Turkey’s Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup Attempt

BARIN KAYAOĞLU

Introduction

Could Turkey really bid “adieu” to the West in the aftermath of the failed coup attempt of 15-16 July 2016? This was one of the questions on the minds of policymakers and pundits around the world as the government in Ankara was consolidating power and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was feeling abandoned by his Western allies.

For decades, Turkey has been among the most important strategic partners for the West and also one of the most difficult. Sitting at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, the strategic sea lanes of the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean, and straddling a vast area from the Balkans to the Caucasus to the Middle East, Turkey is one of the most crucial pivot states of the modern age. Its support is needed in the fight against ISIS, to solve Europe’s refugee crisis, and to end the longstanding Cyprus dispute. In 2014, HCSS placed Turkey among the top four countries in the world in terms of its strategic importance to the great powers.

The critical role Turkey plays in international affairs adds to its pivotal status. Whether it is tackling the problem of ISIS, ending the atrocious civil war in Syria, curbing the flow of refugees into Europe, or serving as a conduit for meeting Europe’s energy needs, Turkey is simply too important to ignore for the EU, NATO, and the United States. The traumatic coup attempt has turned the question of Turkey’s pivot from a thought exercise into a potential game-changer that could alter its foreign policy, as well as those of its Western partners. At the same time, if Turkey sticks with the West, the question of its reliability and cooperation will continue to dominate discussions.

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Denied Again: Kirkuk and the Dream of an Independent Kurdistan

BARIN KAYAOĞLU

In a closed-door meeting at a Washington think tank in July, I had the opportunity to ask a high-ranking Iraqi Kurdish official whether he worried that Kurds might be overplaying their hands in Iraq and Syria.

I wondered whether regional powers couldn’t reverse the results of the 25 September independence referendum in Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Kurdish gains against ISIS in Syria. As a historian of the 20th century, I expressed concern that Kurds, rather than attaining their century-old dream of a national homeland, could be pushed back by their neighbors and international powers as they were in the 1920s, 1946, 1961, 1975, 1988 and 2003.

My interlocutor, whose name frequently came up in recent discussions on the KRG’s independence and Kirkuk, politely dismissed my points and assured me that my worries were unfounded—especially in Iraq. He informed me and the coterie of other Middle East watchers in the room that Iraqi Kurds, now in the 26th year of their autonomy, would peacefully negotiate their independence with the federal government in Baghdad. If things turned violent, Kurds would defend themselves as they always do.

Monday, 16 October 2017: The 15-Hour War

But on 16 October, Kurds’ famed Peshmerga army (literally “those who face death”) didn’t/wouldn’t/couldn’t defend Kirkuk, which Iraqi forces had abandoned in the face of the ISIS onslaught three and a half years ago.

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Turkey’s paid exemption from military service system begins

Summary: Will the new paid military service waiver program be Turkey’s last?

BARIN KAYAOĞLU

Turkey’s Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar discussed with state-run Anadolu Agency Turkish Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar recently discussed the new paid conscription program colloquially known as “bedelli askerlik,” which roughly translates as “paid military service,” with the state-run Anadolu Agency. A law passed in July granted a one-time opportunity for men to complete their compulsory military service in just 21 days if they pay 15,000 Turkish liras (about $2,840) before Nov. 3.

Akar said 634,415 men had applied for the program, in which 37 classes will serve through February 2020. The program has processed three classes since August.

But “pay to serve less time” schemes, of which five have been implemented from 1987 until 2014, are controversial in Turkey. The programs worsen the divide among the country’s “haves” and “have nots” and undermine unit morale.

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Libya is only small part of Turkey’s ambitious Africa overture

Summary: Although Turkey’s moves in Libya capture a lot of headlines these days, Ankara has been busy on other fronts in Africa.

BARIN KAYAOĞLU

While Libya captures a lot of headlines today, it is hardly the only African country where Turkey is keeping busy these days. While Turkey’s recent attempt (with Russian support) to negotiate a cease-fire in Libya has failed to halt that country’s violent civil war, Ankara’s moves in other parts of Africa suggest that Turkey will remain tenacious in pursuing its interests in Libya and in the rest of the continent.

When the Turkish Foreign Ministry prepared a document titled “Africa Action Plan” in 1998, not many noticed. But as Turkey’s economic profile grew under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), Ankara’s overtures in African countries increased. Efforts ranging from state building to providing security assistance to taking over schools affiliated with the network of Pennsylvania-based preacher Fethullah Gulen, who is accused of masterminding the 2016 coup attempt, have ramped up. Meanwhile, despite challenges, commerce remains the most successful element of Turkey’s African overture.

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