Baseball-Intellect

Breaking Down the Draft: Some Requests

Fri, 3 Oct 2008 14:38:19 -0400

Continuing this series, I went ahead and looked at three players that were among the suggested players to look at: Xavier Avery (Orioles), Kyle Russell (Dodgers), and Tim Melville (Royals). Below is an excerpt on Melville:

You can see why scouts drool at the mouth in terms of his velocity potential. Melville has a very projectable frame and is said to throw anywhere from 90 - 95 mph, though I have not personally seen him reach 94 or 95 mph. He does this with a pretty slow tempo, which I add up to around 27 frames. His wind-up also looks smooth and combined with the slow tempo, you can see why his fastball velocity looks harder than it really is.

Melville could potentially add velocity if he were to speed up his delivery or at the very least increase his perceived velocity. One thing that may be limiting Melville's velocity is the way in which he plants his front foot. It lands in a closed position and as a result he is cutting his hip rotation short, which you can see below...

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Scouting Oakland Pitching Prospect Brett Hunter

Sat, 27 Sep 2008 14:38:19 -0400

Hunter possesses some of the more unique mechanics of any pitcher drafted in last June's draft. I see his mechanics as a much more exaggerated version of Carlos Marmol.

You'll notice Hunter's upper body bends forward a great deal. This allows Hunter to achieve some significant torque through the separation between his torso and hips. Its that segment that reminds me of Marmol.

Below is the best shot I could get of Marmol from a side view. He has more of a traditional leg kick he, but you can see how far the upper body bends forward before springing back to a more upright position. It's almost as if he is loading the torso and creating tension before its uncoiled forward.

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Scouting Yankees Pitching Prospect Brett Marshall

Mon, 22 Sep 2008 14:38:19 -0400

Below is an excerpt of this article:

1. Marshall is slide-stepping in the clip on the right. That should be eliminated because he's learning from two separate sets of mechanics (the leg kick and the slide-step). That leads to consistency issues in how he performs from the stretch and the wind-up. In addition, the slide-step is meant to be quicker to the plate. You eliminate some of the lower body action to speeden up the delivery and as a result, you can lessen the quality of your stuff and become more "armsy" of a throw, something that should be avoided.

2. Front side mechanics - a little awkward (see how the glove tilts to the side as he firms up?), but they get the job done. This is important in terms of control and finding a consistent release point.

Now, I'm sure the first thing many readers noticed is Marshall's arm action. He makes an "Inverted-W" or more simply, an M. That's not a guarantee for injury as some would have you believe, but I think it's safe to say you can raise his risk factor.

One reason why the injury risk rises is that it can delay the...

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Rangers Draft Review

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 14:38:19 -0400

I decided to create a guest article for Lonestar Ball and in the article I break down picks Tim Murphy, Clark Murphy, and Corey Young. Below is an excerpt on Tim Murphy:

Not efficient with his body. Tucks his arm behind his hips, but he keeps it there for too long in my opinion. Murphy works between 87 - 91 mph, but his velocity might be more consistent if he didn't lose out on the rotational forces a pitcher needs to produce velocity. I slow down the key sequence in his delivery. Watch how the upper body is uncoiled forward, but notice the arm is still rising to its loaded position, meaning it isn't in position to come along for the ride.

Yes, the Rangers could work with Murphy to make these adjustments, but like making adjustment are easier said than done because other facets of the delivery need to be changed due to timing differences. You also have to deal with a variety of issues such as muscle memory--how well the muscles adapt to a change in one's mechanics

WIth that said, he is deceptive, his curveball is plus, and his control is solid. I'm not sure he has the quality stuff to be a starter at the major league level but nothing wrong with a quality arm out of the bullpen.

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Scouting Cardinals Prospect Nico Vasquez

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 14:53:45 -0400

The weight is transferred forward to the front leg as the front foot plants. Just before planting, the hands--along with the bat--begin their first aggressive movement forward. It's at this point his hands do occasionally separate from his body, making his swing a bit longer than it could be.

*BTW, I'm going to experiment in using graphics in the RSS feed to see if it works

Vasquez turns his hips on a firm front leg, which helps him generate power from his swing. One slight concern--and it may be from these particular swings the video provided--was how he would make contact a little too far out in front. This isn't a case of a player looking to achieve extension because he's not slapping/throwing his hands at the ball. It's more a case of Vasquez starting his swing a little earlier than he needs to. He needs to wait on the pitch a little longer and give himself more time to recognize the pitch type and location.

Lastly...

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Helium Watch: Texas Rangers Pitching Prospect Neil Ramirez

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 22:37:37 -0400

"You know it when you see it". That's sort of the feeling I had watching video of Ramirez. He was very impressive.

His fastball sat anywhere from 91 - 94 and it has been said he is able to get up to 96. However, the key to the pitch was how quickly it got on hitters. The pitch looked as if it picked up an extra two or three gears before reaching home plate. There is potential for more velocity as he matures.

Ramirez has a curveball that is close to a plus pitch when on, but there are consistency problems to be fixed as he can have trouble commanding it. His curveball plays up due to how hard it appears to come out of his hand and how similar the plane can be to his fastball.

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An Interview w/ Dane Johnson

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:52:58 -0400

Batter's Box Interactive recently conducted an interview with Dane Johnson, the Blue Jays minor league pitching coordinator. One question stood out to me:

BB: Brad Mills has two excellent pitches but his fastball is only average and he tends to pitch up in the zone with it. Are you trying to get him to improve his fastball?

DJ: He is working on it but I think it will work in the major leagues due to his other pitches, even if it is high it comes out like his curveball so it's not obviously a fastball. In general we would like every pitcher to get their fastballs down but in Mills' case he should be OK. With Mills command is the key for him to be successful.

It stood out to me because Mills is a pitcher I've had my eye on for a while--essentially since the moment he was drafted. He isn't the typical pitcher I usually like and I would like to conduct a more in-depth take on him, but in summary, he is an extremely bright pitcher with two plus-pitches (the change-up and curveball). The change-up, some would consider, is plus-plus. The fastball has average velocity and is fairly straight, but his command excellent. I hope to offer some more info. on Mills in the near future.

Breaking Down the Draft: Bryan Price vs. Brad Holt

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 07:59:05 -0400

Continuing the Breaking Down the Draft series, I compare Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Bryan Price to New York Mets draft pick Brad Holt. Below is an excerpt:

As I watched the video of Bryan Price, who was drafted 48th overall this season by the Boston Red Sox, his similarity to Mets draft pick Brad Holt struck me. Both were drafted in similar spots, both offer plus fastballs, and both have projectable, athletic builds.

Since signing, Holt has been just filthy. Holt currently sports a 1.75 ERA and has the peripherals to back it up. He has 89 strikeouts in just 67 innings, striking out one third of batters faced for a K% of 33. When contact is made, it doesn't seem to be of the hard variety since Holt has a BABIP against of .262 and has given up just nine extra-base hits. The only thing iffy has been the control, but it hasn't hurt him because his power stuff has simply been too tough to hit.

Price, on the other hand, stacks up well with Holt. The K% of 24, while solid, isn't at Holt's level, but his groundball percentage of 58 makes up for some of that difference. In addition, Price's control has been much better than his college numbers indicate. Price's biggest problem has been hittability: a .350 BABIP against and nine extra base hits in less than half the innings.

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Breaking Down the Draft: Picks 44 - 49

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 07:59:05 -0400

It's been a while, but I just completed my most recent installment of my "Breaking Down the Draft" review series. This article ooks at picks 44 - 49 including left handed pitcher Kyle Lobstein of the Tampa Bay Rays. Below is an excerpt on Lobstein:

To start, Lobstein has an extremely slow tempo, coming out around 32 or 33 frames. He's also a "tall-and-fall" pitcher, which I mentioned earlier about Bleich. The difference between Lobstein and Bleich is Lobstein is much more of a straight tall-and-fall guy. It takes him much longer to get his hips moving forward in the direction of home plate.

My advice: speed it up, get moving--see if you get your hips moving a little earlier toward home plate. That alone will help increase Lobstein's velocity. Lobstein is known to be a good athlete, so I don't think he'll have a problem making these adjustments..

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Scouting Pirates Third Baseman Andy Laroche

Fri, 22 Aug 2008 07:59:05 -0400

Recently, I completed a scouting report on Pirates third baseman Andy Laroche. Below is an excerpt:

Laroche is a player many will undervalue. He walks, he hits for power, and he won't hit for a particularly high average.

Laroche has the potential to put up a .275 average, hit 25 - 30 homeruns, draw a lot of walks, and give the Pirates above average defense at third base.

In addition to the power and walks, Laroche is difficult to strikeout. If he's able to keep his strikeouts down around 12% and get a little lucky, he may be able to hit for a .300+ average. However, he never really showed an ability to rake in the minor leagues. By this, I mean players who hit everything hard and who maintain high BABIP rates. Larcoche usually had a BABIP in the .320s.

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Breaking Down the Mechanics of Joba Chamberlain

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 07:59:05 -0400

I was asked by a loyal reader recently to take a look at Joba Chamberlain's mechanics due to the circumstances surrounding the Yankee pitcher lately. What I looked at was his risk of future injury in addition to a recent mechanical adjustment which helped improve what was mediocre control. Below is an excerpt:

One wrinkle Chamberlain has added recently--since the middle of June judging from the starts I've seen, is a brief hesitation in his arm action just after he breaks his hands. This helps in preventing his arm from rushing through his wind-up. In simpler terms, Chamberlain is essentially correcting certain timing issues with his delivery that may have a negative effect on his control. Below is Chamberlain at various points in the year....

...What you'll also notice in the two above clips is just how abrupt Chamberlain's finish is, which as I stated earlier, is my biggest concern in regards to Chamberlain's mechanics. I like pitchers that bury their head downward after release, allowing for a long follow through. Chamberlain basically springs upward into an upright position very shortly after his release and inital follow through, which makes it much tougher to achieve what is a long enough distance for the arm and body to decelerate cleanly.

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Scouting Giants Draft Pick Buster Posey

Fri, 15 Aug 2008 01:59:05 -0400

With Posey now signed to what appears to be an extremely large contract, it's time to take a harder look at the Giants' pick. Below is an excerpt:

Posey showed off excellent plate discipline by walking about two times for every strikeout. There are also no concerns with splits (he hit both lefties and righties equally) or competition (Friday was his second most productive day in hitting--Friday is usually when every team's No. 1 starter pitches and he was almost as good in conference as he was out of conference).

Posey's production as a junior at Florida State are pretty eye-popping. He was very solid his first two years, but exploded in 2008. The three homeruns from 2007 jumped to 26 and his batting average went from .382 to .463.

To sum it up, numbers-wise, Posey has very little weakness

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Breaking Down the Draft - Picks 36 - 43

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 01:59:05 -0400

As the deadline for signing draft picks approaches, I hope to soon complete the breaking down the draft series. I did this one a while back and will post the next version hopefully next week. Below is an excerpt on Chicago Cubs pick Ryan Flaherty:

There are times when Flaherty's hands can get a little out in front, but this is correctable. The bat speed, the loft, the loading?none scream plus power, but I don't see why he can't hit 15 home runs a year with a bunch of doubles.

I also like the versatility that Flaherty can provide. The Cubs will try him at shortstop for now, but he may be too big to remain at the position full-time. However, he'll have the versatility to play almost every position at the big-league level.

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Helium Watch: Scouting Twins Prospect Angel Morales

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 22:59:05 -0400

For this article, I look at the very under-the-radar, very raw, but very talented Minnesota Twin prospect Angel Morales. Below is an excerpt:

A lot of scouts questioned the worth of Morales' bat just before the draft. However, I saw a hitter that had the components of a powerful swing. I said the same thing about Aaron Hicks. Issues need to be worked out, but the components are there for the player to work with. Combined with the overall athleticism Morales possesses, making the necessary adjustments should come easier for him.

One thing that should be pointed out--do you see how Morales twists his knee just before toe touch? By twisting his knee that way, Morales then enables his hip rotation somewhat early. He needs to find a way to stride forward and plant without opening his hips too soon. This is especially noticeable in his game swing.

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Why the Red Sox Are A Better Team With Jason Bay

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 09:59:05 -0400

Over at the Hardball Times, I broke down why I felt the Red Sox are a better team with Jason Bay. This goes beyond both Manny Ramirez's and Jason Bay's hitting ability as when you factor in other variables, Bay you can argue is actually the better player. I felt this was the best time to revisit my last article on Bay in which I broke down his struggles from 2007, which I published before the season began. Below is an excerpt:

In baseball, timing and efficiency are everything. This holds true for both pitching and hitting. If the timing of a player's mechanics are just slightly off, the output of that player could still be dramatically affected.

The chain of events, from foot plant to the hip rotation to the bat's first aggressive movement forward-the actions that help a player produce a powerful swing-weren't being done efficiently. Compare the below clips from Bay in 2007 to Bay in 2008. Both pitches are thrown on the inside half of the plate at similar velocities. The 2007 fastball is hit over the wall near left center, while the homerun in 2008 is more straightaway center. See if you can detect the differences (Bay in 07 is on the left, while Bay in 08 is on the right):

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