tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100070112024-09-12T22:31:31.484-04:00Baseball Notebook is dedicated to constantly improving and providing baseball forecasts and methods. Our mission is to create baseball forecasts that will annually, on average, be the most reliable method of estimating performance, more than using any previous year or multi-year averaged historical data. David Luciani, the president of BaseballNotebook.com, offers his thoughts and ideas through way of Baseball Notebook's Blog.David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-19200930513331297652010-12-16T15:48:00.000-05:002010-12-16T15:48:38.654-05:00

This is an a note to RSS readers that a new transaction analysis has been published at the main BaseballNotebook.com website.  It is not viewable in this format.

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-36505751299847641852010-12-10T18:55:00.000-05:002010-12-10T18:55:06.096-05:00

A new transaction analysis report has been published at the main BaseballNotebook.com page.  It is not visible in this format.

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-75347784021016243862010-12-09T00:16:00.002-05:002010-12-09T00:16:36.364-05:00

Please note that two new transaction analysis reports have been published at the main BaseballNotebook.com page.  They are not viewable through this feed.

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-58905372382023186772010-12-07T18:18:00.000-05:002010-12-07T18:18:51.995-05:00

Baseball Notebook has resumed publishing for the 2011 season and pre-season! Today's blog entry, which contains charts that do not display properly here, can be found through this link or by visiting the main BaseballNotebook.com page.

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-31951578743631561502010-06-10T16:35:00.000-04:002010-06-10T16:35:51.071-04:00

There are a couple of easy mistakes to make in forecasting that I often warn about: - Never be fooled by a small sample. - A great outcome that gets our attention is not a randomly selected sample. I'm about to make a couple of exceptions for good reason and I will explain why.  A single game performance can be so outstanding that it is extremely unlikely that it can be accomplished

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-4704081097549854092010-06-02T15:46:00.000-04:002010-06-02T15:46:57.220-04:00

We're hitting that point in the year where the contenders and the also-rans in fantasy leagues are becoming clearly separated and teams are making moves to strengthen their run for a championship or, if they think they can't contend this year, building for the long run. Occasionally, I pop into message forums to see what the chatter is and of course, I often hear from readers asking

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-42507958798125910162010-05-26T17:39:00.000-04:002010-05-26T17:39:15.802-04:00

We've been working recently on introducing a report similar to one we used to publish a few years ago called "Good Luck, Bad Luck" which, if all goes as planned, will be part of a larger effort on our part to consolidate much of the most useful statistical info into a new-style newsletter, enabling readers to get items such as the weekly depth charts, week ahead reports and others possibly&

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-15668201998428765702010-05-19T20:44:00.000-04:002010-05-19T20:44:34.454-04:00

As I contemplate the next set of major changes for the upcoming projection set this weekend, I wanted to take a moment to highlight a few players who I can already see are poised for some fairly significant upgrades and downgrades in the next set. One that really jumps out at me is Jonny Gomes.  It's looking like he's established as a regular player in the lineup and while I'm not

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-24340588943807807812010-05-11T17:34:00.000-04:002010-05-11T17:34:51.482-04:00

As I consider next weekend's updated projection set, there are three pitchers likely to see a huge dive in projected innings for the remainder of the season, all of them National Leaguers. Oliver Perez is supposedly keeping his spot in the rotation even after his latest disaster, which saw him walk 7 batters in 3.1 innings, but I expect keeping him in the rotation is a scramble to get

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-80320601088335229282010-05-05T11:19:00.000-04:002010-05-05T11:19:35.569-04:00

As we get deeper into the season, this will likely be the final time I get into this topic about hot/cold starts.  I know I'm not the first to say it but it can't be said enough that April absolutely distorts our perception of a player's season.  John Benson used to write about this concept in his one of his old Rotisserie A-Z books and I really like this way of looking at it:

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-57799322191339139872010-04-27T15:46:00.000-04:002010-04-27T15:46:36.834-04:00

I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago in this space but I continue to get questions to the mail bag related to players who are off to a cold start.  Some are more strongly-worded than others and we have to be careful not to overreact.  It's a major conclusion to decide that players with long track records are suddenly unable to play the game anymore, especially when

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-55819714197509734652010-04-14T15:20:00.000-04:002010-04-14T15:20:45.420-04:00

The other day in this space, I reminded readers of the importance of not putting too much weight into the hot or cold start, especially with only a week in the books.  There is an exception, though, and so today I want to talk about the flipside of that equation.  There are times when you do need to seriously consider how well a player has started and those occasions are when&

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-23808678911855428812010-04-11T13:21:00.000-04:002010-04-11T13:21:58.891-04:00

I don't want to repeat what I wrote in an extended essay back in May of 2005 so I'll begin by drawing an old article to the attention of newer readers via this link as it covered a lot of what I would be inclined to write today about the order of performances skewing perception.  In summary, that article was a presentation on just how the earlier stats can create

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-5105306800067736652010-04-07T13:58:00.000-04:002010-04-07T13:58:51.589-04:00

I received a somewhat strongly-worded but still worthy mailbag question the other day that I'd like to address in today's entry: "Regarding your forecast for Ian Desmond, I think you're nuts.  Guzman can't physically play shortstop anymore and the Nationals have nothing else to lose by giving Desmond the at bats.  I think you're way low on his ABs and production.  I'd

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-73900907262345914532010-04-03T14:54:00.000-04:002010-04-03T14:54:11.723-04:00

It's become a tradition for me to publish a commentary just before opening day each year and this season will be no exception.  To varying degrees, much of the material I publish throughout the year in this space is either rooted in some sort of scientific method, whether it be completely unproven theories (such as our recently-discussed Asymmetrical Auction Strategy

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-10269166568329898992010-04-01T15:16:00.002-04:002010-04-01T15:16:57.886-04:00

The other day, I blogged about a theoretical strategy designed to achieve the 78% discount target in fantasy auctions. I was pleasantly surprised at the number of readers who instantly grasped the concept despite my admitted difficulty at summarizing the idea. An instant theme emerged, though, where many readers wondered how to apply it to their keeper leagues. In fact, I think keeper leagues

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-7517871608762276362010-03-30T20:35:00.002-04:002010-03-30T20:35:08.448-04:00

This is an automatic notification to RSS readers that today's blog entry is an extended essay only available for viewing directly at the BaseballNotebook.com website or directly through this link.

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-17732522225250314602010-03-26T14:06:00.000-04:002010-03-26T14:06:55.350-04:00

Most regular readers know of my so-called "78% Rule" but if you don't, it's pretty simple and no useful advice on fantasy auction strategy can begin without understanding the general concept. In short, the 78% rule is a guideline that says that if you end up with a team that costs about 78% of its eventual value, you're probably going to be a strong contender.  Now, there are no

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-76636485277789319992010-03-24T14:00:00.000-04:002010-03-24T14:00:50.090-04:00

As spring training nears the point where clubs are starting to make fairly major decisions about how their rosters will look on opening day, there have been several transactions in the past few days that will have significantly affected the forecasts. As we alluded to last week in this space, Madison Bumgarner did end up getting sent to the minors and it's a major disappointment for him. &

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-1067307954228322832010-03-21T15:33:00.000-04:002010-03-21T15:33:03.401-04:00

Two fairly significant injuries were announced after the cutoff point for consideration for this morning's published projection set, one of which we had pretty much expected and the other being a surprise. First, the news we didn't see coming was that Kerry Wood could be out of action until May or June with a strained lat muscle.  As it happens, we had

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-2465287919155552422010-03-19T15:35:00.000-04:002010-03-19T15:35:50.905-04:00

It's time for me to openly answer some questions that have been sent to our mailbag and we'll continue to work in as many of these as possible in the coming weeks: Q. Has Madison Bumgarner's spring cost him a spot in the rotation? A. Yes, it's certainly in serious jeopardy anyway.  I often emphasize that you can't put too much weight into spring training statistics when

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-22745800833912386602010-03-17T14:11:00.000-04:002010-03-17T14:11:08.984-04:00

This is an automatic announcement to RSS readers that today's entry uses formatting that is only available at the site.  You can view the article through this link.

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-80631994615905324102010-03-11T22:30:00.002-05:002010-03-11T22:30:34.355-05:00

This is an automatic announcement to RSS readers that today's entry is an extended essay available only at the BaseballNotebook.com website or directly through this link.

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-87852700781895030052010-03-11T15:28:00.000-05:002010-03-11T15:28:02.877-05:00

It seems fairly certain now that Jose Reyes is not going to be ready to go by opening day, this according to an article on the MLB website published just a couple of hours ago.  The problem with a condition such as he's facing is that there never really is a specific timeline given for a return and he was already facing a comeback from a fairly serious extended absence

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10007011.post-85801042563696936832010-03-09T12:41:00.001-05:002010-03-09T14:10:38.498-05:00

Since this weekend's projection set was published, we learn that Joe Nathan may be facing season-ending surgery because of a torn ligament in his elbow.  The gap between Nathan and every other reliever currently under contract with Minnesota is incredibly wide and there isn't a true "future closer" here who seems ready for 2010.  Jon Rauch and/or Matt Guerrier could close for now

David Lucianihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04303964802216296025noreply@blogger.com