The few games played last week produced 9.17 runs per game, pretty much in the middle of the distribution of runs per game for week 16 since 2015. In the last few weeks, home runs are up and walks are down, and that trend continued in week 16.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.342, 0.727 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.335, 0.714 — Keibert Ruiz batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.318, 0.696 — CJ Abrams batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.313, 0.696 — Daylen Lile batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.304, 0.708 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.300, 0.702 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.299, 0.672 — James Wood batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.298, 0.726 — Luis Arraez batting at Michael Wacha.
• 0.298, 0.672 — Jose Tena batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.297, 0.668 — Curtis Mead batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.294, 0.663 — Harrison Ford batting at Kyle Freeland.

I didn’t realize Han Solo played for the Nationals, as he goes by Harry Ford. Too bad he never played for an Indiana team. I like parents who do this to their children, and I always wanted to name a child Ford.

Take your pick of from the Nationals today as they play at Coors against Freeland.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.342, 0.727 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.298, 0.726 — Luis Arraez batting at Michael Wacha.
• 0.335, 0.714 — Keibert Ruiz batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.291, 0.710 — Jake Mangum batting at Ryan Weathers.
• 0.304, 0.708 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.273, 0.704 — Jacob Wilson batting at Mitch Bratt.
• 0.291, 0.704 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Nick Martinez.
• 0.300, 0.702 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.283, 0.698 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Michael Wacha.
• 0.287, 0.697 — Michael Harris II batting vs. JP Sears.

Garcia and Ruiz come in as the consensus double down pair. Garcia is just one for eight against Freeland in his career with three strikeouts. Arraez, on the other hand, is 6 for 16 against Wacha with two strikeouts. Ruiz is the interesting choice. He puts the ball in play a lot, with both low walk and strikeout rates. His BABIP is just .289, but Coors provides a lot of room for hits to land.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros stayed on top of the list with a one for four with a double in a 5-2 Orioles win, Baltimore winning their seventh game in a row. Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda of the Rays rank second and third respectively as each picked up a single in the 6-1 Red Sox win. The Red Sox extend their winning streak to 13 games, the longest franchise streak since 1948. That season, Boston won the AL Pennant. The Orioles open a three-game set a Fenway tonight.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs ranks fourth after collecting a double in a 10-1 win over the Twins.

If it seems like there were a lot of blow out wins lately, you’re right. Since the All-Star break 18 of 46 games were decided by ten runs or more, 11%. Two weeks this season saw 7.4% of games won by ten runs or more, and that was the high point. One would think that the top pitchers would be going in the three games after the break, but in many cases that wasn’t true.

Drake Baldwin of the Braves posted the highest game score of the day, a 91. He went five for five with two home runs in an 8-5 win over the Rangers. It’s the tenth game score of 90 or more this season, and the fourth of July. Baldwin is the rare catcher used in the lead-off slot at home, and he delivered about the best game he could. He raised his OBP to .362 and his OBP to .481. He ranks 17th.

With a bullpen game scheduled for the evening half of a doubleheader Sunday, the Dodgers were counting on Yamamoto to pitch deep into Game 1 and let as many relievers as possible rest up.

Mission accomplished.

“When I was going into the game early on, I was not thinking about that today we have a doubleheader,” Yamamoto said through interpreter Yoshihiro Sonoda. “I was just focusing on my own job. And then on a day like this, to be able to perform like this, that was a good thing.”

LATimes.com

He threw just 102 pitches. Meanwhile the Dodgers batters kept fouling off Cam Schlittler pitches, pushing his total to 98 in just 4 1/3 innings, chasing him from the game.

“More than anyone else, I believe I understand my own limitations and how much I still need to improve,” Sasaki said. “Even if this path ultimately turns out to be the wrong choice, I do not want to live with regret. Rather than defining my life by whether I succeed or fail, I want to define it by whether I had the courage to take on a challenge. With that belief in mind, I ultimately decided to pursue this path.”

Sasaki played under Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani’s father, Toru, and is Japan’s all-time high school home run leader with 140. He made waves out of high school, opting out of the Nippon league’s draft to play at Stanford.

Chron.com

I hope more players who would otherwise need a posting path join MLB choose this path. It might force Japan to rethink free agency, and maybe start competing for North American players. If we’re ever going to have a true world game, major leagues around the world will need to be on an even footing.

Fans of the team woke up to Ward’s stunning passing Sunday, one day after the franchise unveiled a statue commemorating the club’s signature moments.

…

Ward was among many players from the championship seasons who had travelled to Toronto on Friday.

He was absent from Saturday’s pre-game ceremony for the statue’s unveiling.

TorontoSun.com

My thoughts go out to his family, friends, and fans. I hope he was able to spend a little time with his former teammates before his passing.

Ward pitched 16 innings for the Braves in 1986 before joining the Blue Jays in exchange for Doyle Alexander. Ward spent the rest of his career with Toronto. His best seasons came in 1992 and 1993, with rWARs of 3.1 and 3.0 respectively, helping the Blue Jays to consecutive World Series titles. In those years he combined hit K rates with low home run rates.

He threw a high number of relief innings, however. Between 1988 and 1992, he pitched 562 2/3 innings, the most for any pitcher with at least 70 saves. In 1993 his innings dropped below 100 to 71 2/3, but that was iit. Biceps tendinitis ended his career, pitching just 2 2/3 more innings in 1995.

It’s another reason teams load up on relievers today.

(On a side note, the Yankees and Dodgers seem to be dissing NBC/Peacock. This matchup was supposed to be the Sunday night game, but now will be on the local RSNs in competition with Peacock’s broadcast of the White Sox at the Blue Jays. The two biggest markets will not be tuning into that game.)

The Red Sox go for a sweep of the Rays and a thirteen game win streak as Tampa Bay sends Shane McClanahan against Sonny Gray. McClanahan regained his form after a year off to recover from Tommy John surgery. His ERA stands at 2.83, slightly better than his 2.99 career mark. He’s getting their in a slightly different way, however. His strikeout rate dropped, but he compensated by cutting down on home runs allowed. He’s throwing his fastball less often and his slider more often. Gray owns a 9-0 record since the start of May with an ERA of 1.98. That stands third best in the majors in that time. He allowed just 56 hits in 72 2/3 innings despite not overwhelming opponents with strikeouts.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.297, 0.709 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.295, 0.710 — Otto Lopez batting at Robert Gasser.
• 0.286, 0.697 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.282, 0.690 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.282, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting at Noah Cameron.
• 0.281, 0.683 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Jacob Lopez.
• 0.279, 0.676 — Michael Massey batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.277, 0.685 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Andre Pallante.
• 0.277, 0.669 — Tyler Tolbert batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.275, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting at Sonny Gray.

Lopez and Pena are listed as day to day after injuries on Saturday. The Yankees and Dodgers play a split admission doubleheader on Sunday, so be careful picking from those games.

Witt tended not to appear high on the lists this season. He draws walks at a higher rate this season, and owns a lower BABIP. With a number of very good pitchers going today, Marquez helps Witt rise to the top of this list.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.295, 0.710 — Otto Lopez batting at Robert Gasser.
• 0.297, 0.709 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. German Marquez.
• 0.264, 0.701 — Luis Arraez batting at Logan Gilbert.
• 0.282, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting at Noah Cameron.
• 0.286, 0.697 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.275, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting at Sonny Gray.
• 0.269, 0.695 — Jake Mangum batting at Joey Cantillo.
• 0.252, 0.690 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Foster Griffin.
• 0.282, 0.690 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.268, 0.690 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Sean Burke.

With Lopez suffering a finger injury, Witt looks like the top pick for today, with Andujar the double down if you eliminate the day to day players.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs sits in fourth place. He went 0 for 5 with three strikeouts in a 6-2 win over the Twins. He tied for the second worst game score of the day, a 32. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates remained fifth. He went three for seven with a walk and two doubles in a doubleheader split with the Guardians.

The highest game score of the day came off the bat of Jose Trevino of the Reds, a 79. He posted a three for four with two home runs in a 10-3 Rockies win. Trevino only has 74 PA this season. His OBP of .278 is right in line with his career mark of .275, but with six of his 19 hits going for extra bases, his .437 slugging percentage is well above his career mark of .364.

Boston tries to extend their win streak to twelve games as they host the Rays. Ian Seymour goes against Patrick Sandoval. Seymour pitches with low velocity, 91 to 92 MPH on his fastball. That’s too bad, because “Suddenly” would be a good nickname for him. Sandoval pitched well in his first start back after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He walked on and struck out five in 4 1/3 innings, allowing just one run.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.298, 0.716 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Zack Littell.
• 0.297, 0.719 — Jake Mangum batting at Logan Allen.
• 0.296, 0.709 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Davis Martin.
• 0.292, 0.710 — Otto Lopez batting at Shane Drohan.
• 0.286, 0.698 — Nick Gonzales batting at Logan Allen.
• 0.286, 0.675 — Tristan Peters batting at Shane Bieber.
• 0.285, 0.703 — Yandy Diaz batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.281, 0.678 — Elly De La Cruz batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.281, 0.695 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Griffin Canning.
• 0.281, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting at Bryan Woo.

The Pirates play a doubleheader in Cleveland today. Logan Allen is scheduled for the night-cap, but check carefully before picking from those games.

Wilson and Littell match up nicely, as both sport low strikeout and walk rates. That means a lot of balls in play, and only balls in play can find holes for hits.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.297, 0.719 — Jake Mangum batting at Logan Allen.
• 0.298, 0.716 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Zack Littell.
• 0.281, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting at Bryan Woo.
• 0.292, 0.710 — Otto Lopez batting at Shane Drohan.
• 0.296, 0.709 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Davis Martin.
• 0.285, 0.703 — Yandy Diaz batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.286, 0.698 — Nick Gonzales batting at Logan Allen.
• 0.281, 0.695 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Griffin Canning.
• 0.260, 0.694 — Jake Mangum batting at Gavin Williams.
• 0.274, 0.690 — Chandler Simpson batting at Patrick Sandoval.

You could double down with Mangum today. Mangum against Allen and Wilson are the consensus double down picks, however.

By the way, the four highest percent of BA as offense in 2026 make this list:

Mangum and Simpson hit mostly singles. The elongated outer ellipse shows that Wilson and Clement generate some power.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros ranks second after a two for three with two walks and a double in a 3-2 Orioles win. Alvarez raised his OBP to .431 and his slugging percentage to .636. Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs sits in third place after drawing a walk in 5-2 Twins win. Fifth place Bryan Reynolds and the Pirates did not play as the game as smoke from the wildfires caused the postponement of the game.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Andres Chaparro of the Nationals, a 93. It is the ninth score of 90 or better this season, and the third in July. He posted a four for five with a walk, two home runs, and eight RBI in the 23-4 at the Athletics. In his third season with Washington, Chaparro so far improved his ability to get on base by drawing more walks. He came into 2026 with 12 walks in 205 PA. This season he already drew eleven walks in 71 PA. His batting average remains low, but the .352 OBP and six of his thirteen hits going for extra bases makes him valuable.

Note that the Athletics fired their pitching coach over the All-Star break. So far it hasn’t made a difference.

Major League Baseball banned the practice beginning Wednesday.

The crackdown was issued in a June 11 memo to teams but wasn’t put in place until the day before the second half of the season began following the All-Star break.

As first reported by The Athletic, MLB found that some teams were using league-issued iPads in the dugout “beyond their originally intended purpose to include recommendations regarding substitutions, pitch calling, and other in-game decisions traditionally made by players and coaches.”

NYPost.com

So what will happen is the AI will produce a matrix or the probabilities on paper, and the dugout pitch caller will become adept at reading that output. It will be the same outcome with different media.

Never a slugger, Hunt hit 10 of his 39 career home runs as a rookie in 1963. He is perhaps best known for being hit by pitches. He led his league in HBPs seven times, including 50 in the 1971 season alone. His 243 career beanings rank sixth all-time.

“Some folks give their bodies to science,” Hunt once said. “I gave mine to baseball.”

TheBigLead.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Hunt held the modern HBP record when he retired. Craig Biggio, Don Baylor, and Jason Kendall managed to pass him. He walked 555 times, and finished with an excellent .368 OBP.

His best season came in 1968 with the Giants, not surprisingly his age 27 season. His .250/.371/.297 slash line in a tough season for hitters helped him to a 4.6 rWAR.

Roberts said Ohtani had the procedure after Sunday’s game against Arizona. Ohtani last pitched on July 3.

“It gives him some relief in his knee, which we were hoping to get, and then the four days off from activity, which gets it all to kind of settle in,” Roberts said. “I think we are certainly more prepared to back off on the workload if it calls for it, but Shohei wants to be out there as much as he possibly can.”

Chron.com

I asked Claude.AI how the knee is naturally lubricated:

The knee is lubricated by synovial fluid, a viscous liquid produced by the synovial membrane that lines the joint capsule. This fluid fills the joint cavity and coats the surfaces that move against each other.

The lubrication works through a few mechanisms. The cartilage capping the ends of the femur and tibia is smooth and porous; under pressure it releases fluid, and when unloaded it reabsorbs it, so a thin film is maintained between surfaces (weeping lubrication). Synovial fluid contains hyaluronic acid, which gives it its viscosity and thickens it under low shear, and lubricin (a glycoprotein), which coats the cartilage surface and provides boundary lubrication when the surfaces are pressed close together at high load. Together these give the knee an extremely low coefficient of friction, lower than ice on ice.

The fluid also nourishes the cartilage, which has no blood supply of its own and depends on this exchange for oxygen and nutrients.

Age and injury can disrupt this system.

First place teams meet in Atlanta as the Rangers send Cal Quantrill against the Braves and Chris Sale. Quantrill also pitched better in a starting role this season, with a 2.12 ERA in four starts versus a 3.68 ERA as a reliever. He’s shown better control as a starter with fewer hits allowed. Sale continues to wow at seasonal age 37 with a 2.20 ERA and a 10.74 K per 9 IP.

The Nationals invade Sacramento as Cade Cavalli takes on Gage Jump of the Athletics. Cavalli cut his home run rate by about 0.6 per 9 IP this season with a higher K rate, leading to about a half a run drop in ERA. Jump may be a better pitcher than his overall stats indicate. While his sample sizes are small, on the road he allowed a .173/.247/.222 slash line. At home, it’s .337/.383/.525.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.295, 0.714 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
• 0.291, 0.700 — Miguel Andujar batting at Seth Lugo.
• 0.288, 0.689 — Jake McCarthy batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.284, 0.686 — Troy Johnston batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.281, 0.676 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. Mason Englert.
• 0.277, 0.674 — T.J. Rumfield batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.277, 0.696 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Anthony Kay.
• 0.277, 0.690 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Cal Quantrill.
• 0.277, 0.683 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Gage Jump.
• 0.277, 0.674 — Mickey Moniak batting vs. Brady Singer.

The Rays and Red Sox play a doubleheader today at Fenway, so be careful picking from those games.

Wilson only played 56 games this season. He’s striking out more and walking less, and his BA as percent of his offense stands at 61.6% third highest in MLB.

the inner circle represent BA, the the X axis of the outer oval is OBP, the Y axis slugging percentage. Lots of hits with little else can make one a good candidate for delivering a hit.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.295, 0.714 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
• 0.261, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting at Bryce Miller.
• 0.291, 0.700 — Miguel Andujar batting at Seth Lugo.
• 0.272, 0.697 — Otto Lopez batting at Logan Henderson.
• 0.277, 0.696 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Anthony Kay.
• 0.267, 0.694 — Yandy Diaz batting at Jake Bennett.
• 0.260, 0.694 — Jake Mangum batting at Gavin Williams.
• 0.264, 0.693 — Yandy Diaz batting at Eduardo Rivera.
• 0.277, 0.690 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Cal Quantrill.
• 0.288, 0.689 — Jake McCarthy batting vs. Brady Singer.

Note that Clement and Mangum surround Wilson on the list of BA as a high percentage of offense. Arraez is ninth, and Lopez is 11th. Wilson and Andujar rate as the consensus double down pick today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Francisco Alvarez of the Mets posted the highest game score of the day, a 76, in a 4-1 win over the Phillies. Alvarez walked and homered twice from the nine hole. At seasonal age 24 he might be on his way to his best offensive season. He hit 25 homers in 2023, but at high cost as his .284 OBP cost the Mets a ton of outs. With a .325 OBP this season (after a .339 last year), he seems to have found a good balance between power and reaching base. If the catcher stays healthy, he should be a key piece of the Mets improvement as they try to piece together a winning team.

Burns’ deal would run through the 2033 season and under the current labor contract covers three seasons of arbitration eligibility and the first two years after he would have been eligible for free agency. It does not include options or deferrals.

Chron.com

Burns improved his ERA this season by two runs compared to his first year in 2025, but his three-true outcomes stayed consistent. He owns a good home run rate for someone who pitches half his games in Cincinnati.

The improvement came from a drop in BABIP allowed, from .360 to .264. He’s only allowed 77 hits in 102 2/3 innings this year. His pitch arsenal is the same, but he has reduce line drive and increase fly ball rates. If the Reds get ten or eleven WAR out of him (which includes all his prime years) the contract will be worth it.

The Mets continued to play poorly, going 25-28 from that point through June 25th, while the Phillies went 36-17, second only the Brewers. The Braves went 28-22, allowing the Phillies to make up some ground. The Mets finally pulled the trigger at that point, replacing manager Carlos Mendoza with Andy Green. Since then the Phillies are 9-7, the Braves 7-9, and the Mets 6-10. Green did not have the same impact as Mattingly.

What’s the difference in the Phillies? The offense went from a .219/.294/.362 slash line under Thomson to a .243/.307/.413 line under Mattingly. The biggest change came with runners in scoring position. Under Thomson, they hit a little better than their overall numbers, but under Mattingly their line soared to .278/.353/.487.

Note, too, that the pitching and defense improved quite a bit. The pitchers produced an opposition slash line of .286/.349/.436 under Thomson, .242/.305/.400 under Mattingly. It could very well be that Thomson’s managerial style eventually wore on the team, and firing him got the team to relax and play well. Of course, it could just be that Phillies were a good team going through a bad stretch, and they would have regressed to their mean anyway.

The Mets are still waiting for the regression.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.281, 0.681 — Bo Bichette batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.272, 0.657 — Carson Benge batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.270, 0.651 — Andrew Ewing batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.268, 0.650 — Juan Soto batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.261, 0.642 — Francisco Alvarez batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.252, 0.626 — Jared Young batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.248, 0.628 — Eric Wagaman batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.246, 0.630 — Francisco Lindor batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.246, 0.671 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Christian Scott.
• 0.241, 0.610 — Tyrone Taylor batting at Aaron Nola.

There is only one game in the majors today. ESPN gets to decide if they want to open the post-break period with a stand alone game, and they decided to move the Mets at the Phillies to Thursday night. Nola posts a good strikeout rate this season of 9.46 batters per 9 innings pitched, but owns an opposition BABIP of .325. Couple that with a high home run rate, and he allowed 108 hits in 97 innings. That’s why the Mets dominate the projected hit average. Of the Mets players with at least 10 PA against Nola, Bichette does hit him the best, four for 13, a .308 hit average. Score one for Log5.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.281, 0.681 — Bo Bichette batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.246, 0.671 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Christian Scott.
• 0.272, 0.657 — Carson Benge batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.270, 0.651 — Andrew Ewing batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.268, 0.650 — Juan Soto batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.261, 0.642 — Francisco Alvarez batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.216, 0.633 — Trea Turner batting vs. Christian Scott.
• 0.246, 0.630 — Francisco Lindor batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.248, 0.628 — Eric Wagaman batting at Aaron Nola.
• 0.252, 0.626 — Jared Young batting at Aaron Nola.

With only one game, the probabilities are pretty low. If you’re starting a streak, take a chance with Bichette. If you have a long streak in progress, today might be a good day to skip a pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!