Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.312, 0.734 — Chandler Simpson batting at Trevor Williams.
• 0.295, 0.708 — Yandy Diaz batting at Trevor Williams.
• 0.291, 0.685 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Cristian Javier.
• 0.288, 0.676 — James McCann batting at Cristian Javier.
• 0.288, 0.694 — Alec Burleson batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.285, 0.695 — Michael Harris II batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.285, 0.682 — Jordan Walker batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.283, 0.679 — Andrew Vaughn batting at Rhett Lowder.
• 0.282, 0.685 — Jackson Chourio batting at Rhett Lowder.
• 0.281, 0.688 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Walker Buehler.

All the systems pick Simpson lately. Part of it comes from Williams being a hittable pitcher, as Simpson’s teammate, Yandy Diaz, comes in second here.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.312, 0.734, 0.763 — Chandler Simpson batting at Trevor Williams.
• 0.295, 0.708, 0.724 — Yandy Diaz batting at Trevor Williams.
• 0.268, 0.706, 0.715 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Chris Sale.
• 0.275, 0.696, 0.691 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Ryan Johnson.
• 0.285, 0.695, 0.681 — Michael Harris II batting at Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.288, 0.694, 0.710 — Alec Burleson batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.281, 0.688, 0.673 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Walker Buehler.
• 0.265, 0.687, 0.699 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Ryan Johnson.
• 0.282, 0.685, 0.678 — Jackson Chourio batting at Rhett Lowder.
• 0.291, 0.685, 0.672 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Cristian Javier.

The NN agrees with the pair of Rays as the double down, but brings in some more pure hit collectors near the top.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.312, 0.734, 0.763 — Chandler Simpson batting at Trevor Williams.
• 0.295, 0.708, 0.724 — Yandy Diaz batting at Trevor Williams.
• 0.268, 0.706, 0.715 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Chris Sale.
• 0.288, 0.694, 0.710 — Alec Burleson batting at Ryan Feltner.
• 0.268, 0.684, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Jameson Taillon.
• 0.265, 0.687, 0.699 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Ryan Johnson.
• 0.275, 0.696, 0.691 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Ryan Johnson.
• 0.276, 0.675, 0,685 — Nico Hoerner batting at Janson Junk.
• 0.274, 0.682, 0.681 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
• 0.285, 0.695, 0.681 — Michael Harris II batting at Cristopher Sanchez.

It’s a trifecta day as all three systems provide a Simpson-Diaz double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman of the Cubs rank two and four respectively after a 2-1 win over the Brewers, the teams splitting the four game series leaving Milwaukee eight games up in the NL Central. PCA homered in four plate appearances, driving in both runs, while Bregman hit a double in three trips to the plate.

Rafael Devers of the Giants rounds out the top five with an 0 for 4 in a 5-2 Pirates win.

The highest game score of the day came off the bat of Carter Jensen of the Royals, a 79. He missed the cycle by a single, his three for four from the leadoff slot helping Kansas City to a 7-3 win over the Marlins. The Royals join the roster of teams that will not lose 100 games this season. Jensen, in his second season, continued to show good power. Fifty one of his 106 hits went for extra bases. While his overall slugging percentage of .442 isn’t amazing, he does produce a very good isolated power of .216. He is playing in his age 22 season, so the sky’s the limit.

Through Aug. 31, MLB attendance had increased by 518,651 fans compared with the same point last season. The Rays alone were up 519,372, according to Front Office Sports, meaning the other 29 teams combined were actually down 721 fans.

BroBible.com

Attendance for the Rays is actually pretty good for them this season, 17,181 per game, only the third lowest in the majors. That’s up from 16,515 per game in 2024.

The Red Sox are slipping and the Orioles are rising as Jake Bennett takes on Brandon Young in Baltimore. Bennett makes his seventeenth start in a fine rookie season. He pitched a bit better on the road this season, 4-3 with a 3.02 ERA in eight starts. He allowed just three home runs in 47 2/3 innings. Young, in his late prime years, goes for his tenth win of the season. He allowed just 128 hits in 130 1/3 innings despite recording just 103 strikeouts.

Finally, the Rays send Shane McClanahan against Cal Quantrill and the Rangers as the two teams chase division titles. McClanahan has now won at least ten games in each of his four MLB seasons. He’s allowed just nine home runs in 113 innings this season. Quantrill allowed a 1.83 ERA in his last eight appearances, two from the bullpen. He struck out 37 and walked just eight in 39 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.294, 0.723, 0.745 — Chandler Simpson batting at Cal Quantrill.
• 0.291, 0.694, 0.699 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.289, 0.690, 0.684 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.280, 0.678, 0.677 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.277, 0.686, 0.674 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Quinn Mathews.
• 0.276, 0.697, 0.692 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Blade Tidwell.
• 0.276, 0.679, 0.661 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.274, 0.693, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting at Cal Quantrill.
• 0.272, 0.679, 0.665 — Jackson Chourio batting at Kevin Gausman.
• 0.271, 0.670, 0.627 — Andrew Vaughn batting at Kevin Gausman.

Simpson went two for four yesterday to raise his BA to .312, just five points behind Yordan Alvarez for the AL lead. Alvarez remains at the top of the three triple crown categories, but each lead is a bit tenuous.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.294, 0.723, 0.745 — Chandler Simpson batting at Cal Quantrill.
• 0.276, 0.697, 0.692 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Blade Tidwell.
• 0.291, 0.694, 0.699 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.274, 0.693, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting at Cal Quantrill.
• 0.289, 0.690, 0.684 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.267, 0.688, 0.700 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Blade Tidwell.
• 0.268, 0.686, 0.667 — Otto Lopez batting at Michael Wacha.
• 0.277, 0.686, 0.674 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Quinn Mathews.
• 0.266, 0.685, 0.702 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.272, 0.679, 0.665 — Jackson Chourio batting at Kevin Gausman.

The Astros do a bit worse in this list, as the NN downplays Castillo’s tendency to give up hits. He is a low K, low BB pitcher with an above average opposition BABIP.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.294, 0.723, 0.745 — Chandler Simpson batting at Cal Quantrill.
• 0.266, 0.685, 0.702 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.267, 0.688, 0.700 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Blade Tidwell.
• 0.291, 0.694, 0.699 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.274, 0.693, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting at Cal Quantrill.
• 0.276, 0.697, 0.692 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Blade Tidwell.
• 0.289, 0.690, 0.684 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.243, 0.646, 0.678 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Brandon Young.
• 0.280, 0.678, 0.677 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Luis Castillo.
• 0.277, 0.686, 0.674 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Quinn Mathews.

While all three systems agree on Simpson, the double down choice is up for grabs. Pena gets the nod as Witt and Gonzales only appear on two lists.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman of the Cubs rank third and fifth respectively. PCA singled and walked twice while Bregman singled, homered and drove in four runs. The Brewers took the game 9-5 however, making up for a rare poor outing by Jacob Misiorowski, who allowed five runs in four innings to raise his ERA to 1.97. The win puts the Brewers up nine games in the NL Central, and likely seals the division for the team.

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres went two for four in a 7-3 Reds win and sits in fourth place.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Henry Bolte of the Athletics, an 87. Bolte went three for four with a walk, a hit by pitch, and two of the five A’s home runs in a 9-2 win over the Rangers. The Rookie showed little power this season, with only 21 of his 91 hits going for extra-bases. He is reaching base at a .350 clip however, what the A’s want from a leadoff man. At seasonal age 22, he has some time to develop power to go along with the on-base skills.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.306, 0.697, 0.681 — Blaze Alexander batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.292, 0.683, 0.683 — Josh Naylor batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.287, 0.717, 0.733 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Justin Hagenman.
• 0.282, 0.690, 0.693 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Davis Martin.
• 0.280, 0.683, 0.678 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.280, 0.675, 0.639 — Andrew Vaughn batting at David Peterson.
• 0.279, 0.682, 0.673 — Jackson Chourio batting at David Peterson.
• 0.279, 0.683, 0.676 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Davis Martin.
• 0.278, 0.665, 0.659 — Pete Alonso batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.278, 0.666, 0.665 — Victor Robles batting at Patrick Sandoval.

Alexander is only 2 for 13 in his four games since returning from the illjured list. In his three season career, however, he owns a .354 BABIP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.287, 0.717, 0.733 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Justin Hagenman.
• 0.250, 0.698, 0.703 — Luis Arraez batting at Taylor Clarke.
• 0.306, 0.697, 0.681 — Blaze Alexander batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.282, 0.690, 0.693 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Davis Martin.
• 0.270, 0.689, 0.689 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Justin Hagenman.
• 0.258, 0.686, 0.673 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Landen Roupp.
• 0.280, 0.683, 0.678 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.292, 0.683, 0.683 — Josh Naylor batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.273, 0.683, 0.671 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Brycen Mautz.
• 0.279, 0.683, 0.676 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Davis Martin.

Simpson ranked as a good pick throughout the season, but his teammate, Junior Caminero, currently owns the longest hit streak in the majors at 15 games.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.287, 0.717, 0.733 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Justin Hagenman.
• 0.250, 0.698, 0.703 — Luis Arraez batting at Taylor Clarke.
• 0.282, 0.690, 0.693 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Davis Martin.
• 0.270, 0.689, 0.689 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Justin Hagenman.
• 0.292, 0.683, 0.683 — Josh Naylor batting at Patrick Sandoval.
• 0.249, 0.676, 0.681 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Landen Roupp.
• 0.306, 0.697, 0.681 — Blaze Alexander batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
• 0.280, 0.683, 0.678 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Andrew Painter.
• 0.279, 0.683, 0.676 — Yordan Alvarez batting vs. Davis Martin.
• 0.279, 0.682, 0.673 — Jackson Chourio batting at David Peterson.
• 0.258, 0.686, 0.673 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Landen Roupp.

The two probability models agree on Simpson and Arraez as the double down pair, but Arraez’s projected hit average of .250 against Taylor Clarke put the Phillies cleanup hitter out of the consensus. Clarke will serve as the opener, and over the last two seasons he performed extremely well at preventing hits. He owns a low strikeout rate, but an extremely low opposition BABIP. Alexander and Pena tie for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs sits in second place after an 0 for 4 with three strikeouts in 9-4 Brewers win. His teammate, Alex Bregman, singled in four trips to rank fifth.

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres homered twice in five trips to the plate in a 4-3 Reds win, his power not enough to extend San Diego’s lead over Arizona. Rafael Devers of the Giants homered and walked twice in a 13-12, walk off win for the Pirates. The Giants scored five times in the top of the eighth inning to tie the game. Devers moved into the fourth slot Devers hit in nine straight games with a .400/.500/.857 slash line.

The best game score of the day belonged to Royce Lewis of the Twins, a 78. He went three for four with a walk, a double, and a home run in a 15-2 win over the Tigers, Lewis never lived up to the promise of this 2023 rookie season in which he posted a .372 OBP with a .548 slugging percentage. At .304/.407 in 2026, this has been one of his better offensive seasons.

Arte Moreno’s tenure as Angels owner is coming to an end, as Los Angeles Rams owner Stan Kroenke has entered an agreement to purchase the club, with the transaction expected to become official in the first quarter of 2027, pending Major League approval.

…

“The Angels are a storied franchise anchored in a great market,” Kroenke said in a statement released by both the Angels and Kroenke Sports & Entertaiment. “We look forward to an exciting future with the Angels organization.”

MLB.com

I usually don’t think of Angels as storied. For years, Gene Autry brought in aging stars with little success. They were the franchise that allowed people who moved to California to see their old home team.

They did post a very good run early in the century, winning their only World Series, but they are also the franchise that could not turn themselves into contenders despite employing two of the greatest players of the last 15 years.

Moreno seemed uninterested in the club the last few years. He also got caught up in government scandals as he tried to develop the area around the park. We’ll see if Kroenke makes a difference. I hope the players don’t stand around singing about him:

Bryce Harper of the Phillies topped the OBP leaders with a .496 mark. He spilt his hits and walks, with 32 of the former and 31 of the latter. He did hurt the Phillies by hitting into six double plays.

Pete Crow-Armstrong led in Slugging Percentage with a ,703 mark. He hit 14 homers in the month, he and teammate Alex Bregman the only players to reach double digits. Unlike Caglione and Harper, PCA also score and drove in a ton of runs, 28 RBI and 29 Runs. That was the most runs scored, and his RBI were third.

Pete Crow-Armstrong wins the Baseball Musings Offensive Player of the Month for August 2026.

On the pitching side, Chris Sale might have posted the best set of three-true outcomes of the month. He did not allow a home run and walked just two batters, to go along with an 11.33 K per 9 IP. What works against him, however, is just 27 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.00.

Jesus Luzardo produced a 1.31 ERA in a decent number of innings, 34 1/3. He struck out 12.06 per 9 IP, allowing just two home runs with a decent walk rate. The next four best ERAs were not close in the K column.

Drew Rasmussen of the Rays and Zebby Matthews of the Twins each went 5-0. Now, wins are not a big factor, but Rasmussen did post good three-true outcomes in 35 innings. His ERA came in at 2.57, however.

Given that group, innings, ERA and TTO, Luzardo wins the combination and is the Baseball Musings Pitcher of the Month for August 2026.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.294, 0.719 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.293, 0.722 — Luis Arraez batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 0.291, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
• 0.289, 0.691 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.277, 0.696 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Logan Webb.
• 0.277, 0.688 — Otto Lopez batting at Randy Dobnak.
• 0.277, 0.661 — Ezequiel Duran batting vs. Brady Basso.
• 0.275, 0.690 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.274, 0.674 — Blaze Alexander batting at Gabriel Hughes.
• 0.274, 0.692 — Michael Harris II batting at Jake Irvin.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.293, 0.722, 0.745 — Luis Arraez batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 0.294, 0.719, 0.733 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.291, 0.697, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
• 0.277, 0.696, 0.695 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Logan Webb.
• 0.274, 0.692, 0.682 — Michael Harris II batting at Jake Irvin.
• 0.289, 0.691, 0.678 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.270, 0.691, 0.708 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Logan Webb.
• 0.275, 0.690, 0.689 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.277, 0.688, 0.668 — Otto Lopez batting at Randy Dobnak.
• 0.263, 0.682, 0.698 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Tyler Phillips.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.293, 0.722, 0.745 — Luis Arraez batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
• 0.294, 0.719, 0.733 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.270, 0.691, 0.708 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Logan Webb.
• 0.263, 0.682, 0.698 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Tyler Phillips.
• 0.291, 0.697, 0.697 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
• 0.277, 0.696, 0.695 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Logan Webb.
• 0.275, 0.690, 0.689 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Sean Manaea.
• 0.274, 0.692, 0.682 — Michael Harris II batting at Jake Irvin.
• 0.289, 0.691, 0.678 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.277, 0.688, 0.668 — Otto Lopez batting at Randy Dobnak.

Pretty simple today, it’s Arraez and Simpson as the double down pair. Rodriguez is a left-handed pitcher, so Arraez may sit. It that case, Freeman would be the double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Third place belongs to Bryce Harper of the Phillies, who went two for four with a double in a 2-1 win over the Diamondbacks. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres doubled in five trips to the plate in a 5-0 win over the Reds for fourth place. Junior Caminero of the Rays went one for four in a 3-2 Mets win for fifth place.

Daylen Lile of the Nationals posted the highest game score of the day, an 86. He went three for three with a walk and two home runs in a 6-3 win over the Marlins. He is now seven for twenty with two walks from the leadoff slot for a .409 OBP.

The teams kick off the series in Chicago, with Kyle Harrison taking on Clay Holmes. Harrison, at seasonal age 25, entered his prime by increasing his K per 9 IP by two and lowering his BB per 9 by one, helping him to a 2.79 ERA versus a 3.84 career mark. Holmes impressed with a 2.39 ERA with the Mets, and dropped that to 1.96 in four starts with the Cubs. He allowed a .236 BABIP for the season.

The Southsiders make their way to Houston in a battel of first place teams as the White send Anthony Kay against the Astros and Peter Lambert. Houston trails Chicago by 3 1/2 games for the second seed in the AL Playoffs. Kay, in his first full season as a starter goes for his tenth win. While he allowed 18 home runs in 132 innings, he held the opposition to a .419 slugging percentage. Lambert just shuts down power, with a .339 opposition slugging percentage.

Enjoy!

Last week produced 8.71 runs per game, same as the previous week and the sixth straight week before 9.0 runs per game. A decrease of 0.4 BABIP hits per game was made up by an increase of 0.4 Walks per game. Week 22 tends to be a strong offensive week, but 2026 came in well below the others tracked since 2015.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.342, 0.724 — Blaze Alexander batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.309, 0.689 — Pete Alonso batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.303, 0.729 — Luis Arraez batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
• 0.303, 0.722 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Robert Stock.
• 0.302, 0.694 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. George Kirby.
• 0.301, 0.672 — Christian Encarnacion-Strand batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.298, 0.710 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Anthony Molina.
• 0.295, 0.668 — Yohel Pozo batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.288, 0.657 — Dylan Beavers batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.287, 0.689 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Aaron Nola.
• 0.287, 0.698 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Robert Stock.

Alexander often came up in top ten lists for this topic, but spent a lot of time on the illjured list this season. FanGraphs lists him as a right-handed platoon player, so he may not start against Gordon.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.303, 0.729, 0.756 — Luis Arraez batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
• 0.342, 0.724, 0.726 — Blaze Alexander batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.303, 0.722, 0.739 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Robert Stock.
• 0.298, 0.710, 0.719 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Anthony Molina.
• 0.287, 0.698, 0.700 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Robert Stock.
• 0.302, 0.694, 0.682 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. George Kirby.
• 0.309, 0.689, 0.701 — Pete Alonso batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.287, 0.689, 0.688 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Aaron Nola.
• 0.275, 0.686, 0.677 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Bryce Elder.
• 0.270, 0.685, 0.663 — Otto Lopez batting at Will Dion.

Arraez owns a decent history against Pfaat, 13 for 24 with four extra-base hits, a walk and three strikeouts. Any history is a small, sample size, but Arraez puts the ball in play against this pitcher.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.303, 0.729, 0.756 — Luis Arraez batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
• 0.303, 0.722, 0.739 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Robert Stock.
• 0.342, 0.724, 0.726 — Blaze Alexander batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.298, 0.710, 0.719 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Anthony Molina.
• 0.309, 0.689, 0.701 — Pete Alonso batting at Tanner Gordon.
• 0.287, 0.698, 0.700 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Robert Stock.
• 0.265, 0.661, 0.699 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. George Kirby.
• 0.274, 0.679, 0.689 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. Anthony Molina.
• 0.287, 0.689, 0.688 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Aaron Nola.
• 0.302, 0.694, 0.682 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting vs. George Kirby.

The LR and NN agree on Arraez. Alexander is the consensus double down if he starts, otherwise Simpson gets the nod.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Pete Alonso of the Orioles singled, walked, and was hit by a pitch in an 8-5 win over the Athletics for fourth place. His teammate, Gunnar Henderson, posted the highest game score of the day, a 93. Henderson went four for four with a triple, two home runs, and five RBI. That the fifteenth game score of 90 or above this season, the second day in a row with a 93, and the third 93 of the week! Henderson produced a lackluster year in 2026, but in August signs of life appeared as he hit .244/.382/.456 so far.

Bryce Harper of the Phillies returned to the top five after a two for five with a double in a 5-2 win over the Angels. He collected multiple hits in five of his last seven games.

Chase Burns of the Reds and Shota Imanaga of the Cubs try to stem the Wrigley slugfests as they battle Sunday night. Burns goes for his fifteenth win of the season. A high strikeout pitcher, he did a great job of limiting hits and homeruns, the latter very telling given his home field. Imanaga, in about the same number of innings as 2025, saw his ERA rise just 0.05 runs. He stood 9-8 at the end of last season with a 3.73 ERA, and right now he is 8-9 with a 3.78 ERA. His problem both seasons came from home runs, allowing 61 HR in 290 innings.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.317, 0.731, 0.748 — Luis Arraez batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.314, 0.716, 0.723 — Nick Gonzales batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.305, 0.711, 0.736 — Jake Mangum batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.288, 0.682, 0.667 — Keibert Ruiz batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.284, 0.681, 0.643 — Blaze Alexander batting at Jeffrey Springs.
• 0.284, 0.680, 0.661 — Randal Grichuk batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.283, 0.680, 0.653 — Ceddanne Rafaela batting at Will Warren.
• 0.279, 0.672, 0.650 — Chase DeLauter batting vs. Seth Lugo.
• 0.278, 0.658, 0.622 — Jeff McNeil batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
• 0.277, 0.658, 0.631 — Henry Bolte batting vs. Chris Bassitt.

This is the last day of the season that you can start a streak and hope to reach 57 games.

It’s a low probability day except for Arraez. He is three for ten with a walk and a strikeout against Kikuchi in their careers.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.317, 0.731, 0.748 — Luis Arraez batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.314, 0.716, 0.723 — Nick Gonzales batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.305, 0.711, 0.736 — Jake Mangum batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.262, 0.701, 0.707 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Robbie Ray.
• 0.267, 0.683, 0.660 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Mason Adams.
• 0.274, 0.683, 0.670 — Freddie Freeman batting at Framber Valdez.
• 0.288, 0.682, 0.667 — Keibert Ruiz batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.271, 0.682, 0.680 — Jeremy Pena batting at Zachary Thornton.
• 0.284, 0.681, 0.643 — Blaze Alexander batting at Jeffrey Springs.
• 0.269, 0.681, 0.661 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Ranger Suarez.

The NN agrees with Log5 on the top three. Mangum tends not to start against LHP, so Arraez and Gonzales would be the double down pair.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.317, 0.731, 0.748 — Luis Arraez batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.305, 0.711, 0.736 — Jake Mangum batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.314, 0.716, 0.723 — Nick Gonzales batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.262, 0.701, 0.707 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Robbie Ray.
• 0.271, 0.682, 0.680 — Jeremy Pena batting at Zachary Thornton.
• 0.273, 0.668, 0.674 — Daylen Lile batting vs. Janson Junk.
• 0.247, 0.645, 0.671 — Romy Gonzalez batting at Will Warren.
• 0.274, 0.683, 0.670 — Freddie Freeman batting at Framber Valdez.
• 0.265, 0.662, 0.670 — Trea Turner batting at Yusei Kikuchi.
• 0.239, 0.666, 0.668 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Parker Messick.

Again, not much difference at the top, although all three systems see a bottom seven a bit differently. The consensus is for Arraez as a single pick, with Gonzales as the double down.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres occupies the second slot after a one for five with three Ks in a 7-6 Rays win. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros singled and homered in a 6-2 Mets win. He now leads the AL by himself in home runs and RBI to go along with the highest batting average. Pete Alonso of the Orioles dropped to fifth place with an 0 for 5 in a 5-3 win over the Athletics.

The Rangers send Cal Quantrill against the Brewers and Shane Drohan. Quantrill owns a 2.32 ERA in ten starts, compared to a .3.78 ERA in 17 relief appearances. He’s been much better at limiting walks in a starting role. Drohan showed less success as a starter, with a 4.58 ERA in the role compared to a 1.69 ERA in eleven relief outings. He limited walks as a reliever, but issues frequent free passes as a starter.

Enjoy!

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.303, 0.705, 0.697 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.301, 0.725, 0.746 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Walker Buehler.
• 0.299, 0.725, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting at Ryan Johnson.
• 0.293, 0.703, 0.700 — Nick Gonzales batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.287, 0.687, 0.667 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Brayan Bello.
• 0.286, 0.688, 0.672 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
• 0.284, 0.696, 0.711 — Jake Mangum batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.283, 0.697, 0.703 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Walker Buehler.
• 0.282, 0.690, 0.700 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Anthony Molina.
• 0.279, 0.672, 0.657 — Mauricio Dubon batting vs. Ryan Feltner.

Note that the Red Sox and Yankees play a doubleheader on Saturday, with Bello probably pitching game two.

Harris draws few walks, and Feltner records few strike outs, so Harris should be able to put the ball in play today.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.299, 0.725, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting at Ryan Johnson.
• 0.301, 0.725, 0.746 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Walker Buehler.
• 0.303, 0.705, 0.697 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.293, 0.703, 0.700 — Nick Gonzales batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.283, 0.697, 0.703 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Walker Buehler.
• 0.284, 0.696, 0.711 — Jake Mangum batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.279, 0.692, 0.676 — Otto Lopez batting at Cade Cavalli.
• 0.282, 0.690, 0.700 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Anthony Molina.
• 0.286, 0.688, 0.672 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
• 0.287, 0.687, 0.667 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Brayan Bello.

The program sorts the full value of the probability, and Arraez leads Simpson .7248 to .7246. Johnson, in 67 1/3 MLB innings has not shown the high strikeout rates he demonstrated in the minors.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

• 0.301, 0.725, 0.746 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Walker Buehler.
• 0.299, 0.725, 0.741 — Luis Arraez batting at Ryan Johnson.
• 0.284, 0.696, 0.711 — Jake Mangum batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.283, 0.697, 0.703 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Walker Buehler.
• 0.293, 0.703, 0.700 — Nick Gonzales batting at Kyle Leahy.
• 0.282, 0.690, 0.700 — Gabriel Moreno batting at Anthony Molina.
• 0.303, 0.705, 0.697 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
• 0.258, 0.678, 0.684 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Foster Griffin.
• 0.279, 0.692, 0.676 — Otto Lopez batting at Cade Cavalli.
• 0.277, 0.679, 0.674 — James McCann batting at Anthony Molina.

A rare disagreement between the NN and the LR. Simpson owns a .335 BABIP this season, right in line with his .331 career mark.

Simpson is the consensus top pick, with Arraez the consensus double down choice. Note that tomorrow is the last day a streak can start with the ability to reach 57 games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!