Although this, in fact, might be more realistic:

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.328, 0.692 — Carson Kelly batting at Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.318, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting at Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.316, 0.722 — Brandon Marsh batting at Max Scherzer.
• 0.310, 0.706 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.309, 0.677 — Alex Bregman batting at Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.308, 0.715 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Jesus Luzardo.
• 0.307, 0.670 — Pete Crow-Armstrong batting at Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.303, 0.667 — Seiya Suzuki batting at Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.298, 0.699 — Josh Jung batting at Seth Lugo.
• 0.298, 0.658 — Moises Ballesteros batting at Michael Lorenzen.

The Cubs play in Colorado, and the starter Lorenzen allowed 99 hits in 60 2/3 innings this season. Kelly owns a .341 BABIP this season, although it stands at .266 for his career.

Andujar is listed as day to day.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.316, 0.722 — Brandon Marsh batting at Max Scherzer.
• 0.308, 0.715 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Jesus Luzardo.
• 0.310, 0.706 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.270, 0.706 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Foster Griffin.
• 0.289, 0.705 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Ryne Nelson.
• 0.286, 0.702 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Jake Bennett.
• 0.273, 0.700 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Foster Griffin.
• 0.298, 0.699 — Josh Jung batting at Seth Lugo.
• 0.318, 0.698 — Nico Hoerner batting at Michael Lorenzen.
• 0.285, 0.693 — Michael Harris II batting at Davis Martin.
• 0.328, 0.692 — Carson Kelly batting at Michael Lorenzen.

I went to eleven to get Kelly on the list. You can see there is a bit of a disagreement between the systems today, but Marsh and Andujar emerge as the consensus double down pair, Marsh and Clement if Andujar kept on the bench. Lee and Arraez each extended a hit streak last night, Lee stands at 17 games, Arraez at 10 games.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros went two for two with a walk before being pulled for some rest in a 10-1 Angels win. Alvarez ranks third. Nick Kurtz of the Athletics helped keep the home run barrage in Las Vegas going with two walks and a home run in a 7-5 win over the Brewers, as Oakland launched five more home runs.

Dillon Dingler of the Tigers posted the highest game score of the day, an 87, in a 10-4 win over the Twins. That’s the eleventh highest game score of the season, and Dingler is also at ten with an 88 on June 1st. He went four for five with two home runs and a double, leaving him with a .248/.329/.528 slash line for the season. Dingler leads a seven game surge by the Tigers, the team going 6-1 with 51 runs scored. Dingler drove in 14 runs in that stretch with a .393/.438/1.000 slash line. He ranks 23rd.

By waiting until now, Chicago likely avoid Montgomery getting super-two status for arbitration, and they will have him for most of seven seasons before he hits free agency. That means the White Sox will control his prime years without paying him free agent money.

Chicago is 1 1/2 games behind the Guardians, and shoring up a weak spot internally and cheaply gives them more room to maneuver at the trade deadline. The Chicago front office played this very well.

Zack Wheeler and Dylan Cease square off as the Phillies continue their series in Toronto. Wheeler pretty much finished his 2025 with his starts so far this season. Since the start of 2025 he is 15-6 in 32 starts with a 2.61 ERA, pitching 200 1/3 innings. He struck out 243 while walking 45. Cease brings a 3.05 ERA into the contest, both his 200th game and 200th start. He is tied for fifth in starts since he entered the league in 2019.Wheeler stands eighth.

Enjoy!

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.333, 0.723 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.306, 0.702 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.292, 0.708 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Andrew Alvarez.
• 0.292, 0.697 — Troy Johnston batting vs. Colin Rea.
• 0.290, 0.679 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Adrian Houser.
• 0.289, 0.714 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Andrew Alvarez.
• 0.288, 0.666 — Ben Rice batting at Slade Cecconi.
• 0.285, 0.693 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Eric Lauer.
• 0.283, 0.667 — Keibert Ruiz batting at Adrian Houser.
• 0.283, 0.666 — CJ Abrams batting at Adrian Houser.

Lopez vs. Gallen projects to a very high hit average of .333. Lopez, with low walk and strikeout rates, owns a .314 hit average this season, 100 points above the league average. Gallen is at .272. The three-year values of .260/.231 tamp that down a bit, but this looks like a very good head to head matchup.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.333, 0.723 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.289, 0.714 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Andrew Alvarez.
• 0.292, 0.708 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Andrew Alvarez.
• 0.306, 0.702 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Zac Gallen.
• 0.292, 0.697 — Troy Johnston batting vs. Colin Rea.
• 0.285, 0.693 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Eric Lauer.
• 0.263, 0.690 — Brandon Marsh batting at Dylan Cease.
• 0.277, 0.686 — Michael Harris II batting at Brandon Eisert.
• 0.250, 0.683 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Payton Tolle.
• 0.268, 0.681 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Eric Lauer.

Lee extended his hit streak to 16 games and Arraez extended his streak to nine games on Monday, Lee posting a four for five game, giving him a .333/.367/.453 slash line. He ranks second in BA in the NL this year, Arraez fourth, with Lopez first. Note how there is no intersection between the BA leaders and the OBP leaders, and all five BA leaders are in the list above. A player who is best capable of extending a hit streak isn’t necessarily a great offensive player.

Lopez is the unanimous top pick, with Edwards and Lee tying for the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

The Dodgers sat idle on Monday, leaving Shohei Ohtani in second place.

The Astros did play, Yordan Alvarez drawing a walk in five PA to hold third place as Houston defeats LAnaheim 5-4 in ten innings, one of three extra inning games on the night.

In one of the other extra inning games, Nick Kurtz of the Athletics went three for six with two home runs and a walk for a game score of 75, the third highest on the day. That propelled him into fourth place. He is hitting .282/.434/.521 on the season. The box score is full of great nights at the plate as the Brewers won the game 15-14 in twelve innings.

Kurtz’s teammate, Tyler Soderstrom, posted a game score of 86, the highest on the evening. He went three for four with two walks (on intentional) and two home runs. Right behind him was Andrew Vaughn of the Brewers with an 81 on a four for six with two doubles and a homer. Both batters drove in four runs. The teams combined for eleven home runs and set a record:

The two teams combined to issue 16 ABS challenges on Monday, shattering the previous record of 12 since ABS came to the Major Leagues beginning this season. The A’s were also involved in one of the two games with 12 combined challenges, their home contest against the Cardinals on May 14. On Monday, the Brewers went 5-for-7 on their challenges, while the A’s were 6-of-9 — despite losing their second challenge in the bottom of the ninth, they received another for each extra inning and lost a third in the 12th.

MLB.com

The ball did not stay in the yard in Vegas.

This week, the Athletics arrive in Las Vegas for a six-game, regular-season homestand.

The A’s (31-34) play three games against the Milwaukee Brewers (40-23) Monday through Wednesday at Las Vegas Ballpark in Summerlin.

That’s followed by a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies (24-42) Friday through Sunday.

News3LV.com

It’s the team’s first time playing in the city since they announced the move.

Notably, Wood has not made these gains by eliminating the swing-and-miss from his game. In some respects, the opposite is true. He is still whiffing frequently against breaking pitches. Pitchers can still exploit the length in his swing, and strikeouts will remain part of the equation.

The difference is that his increasingly refined swing decisions allow him to avoid pitchers’ pitches more consistently, while his immense raw power ensures that mistakes are punished severely. He does not need to eliminate every weakness. He needs to force pitchers to navigate an increasingly narrow margin for error.

Players who strike out in more than 30% of their plate appearances rarely become elite offensive performers. Most hitters cannot withstand that level of swing-and-miss.

Wood is proving that he may be one of the exceptions.

JustBaseball.com

I will disagree with the last two paragraphs. I suspect as Wood continues to improve, he won’t be a 30% K hitter. Someone should whisper in his ear that if he cut that rate in half he might win a triple crown.

Cristopher Sanchez tries to continue his strong run as he faces the Blue Jays and Patrick Corbin. Sanchez posted a 0.51 ERA over his last seven starts, striking out 60 while walking just seven batters. Corbin owns his best ERA since 2019. His underlying numbers haven’t changed much, his home run rate dropping a bit. His FIPs remain high, but so far his ERA does not reflect that.

Enjoy!

Strikeouts rose slightly as well, 16.69 per game this year compared to 16.52 in 2025. BABIP hits are down, however, from 14.22 per game last season to 14.0 per game this year. This is a nice demonstration of how tough it is to fight the prevailing tendencies of the game. Strikeouts help pitchers, reducing men on base by limiting hits. Limited hits mean home runs rise in importance, as they are the most powerful tool for generating runs in a low hit environment. Hitting home runs means swinging hard, so batters also add to the strikeout totals. Pitchers then try to avoid the great power hitters by staying out of the strike zone, issuing more walks. Add in better defensive alignments and, in my opinion, faster and better outfielders everywhere, and the singles, doubles, and triples become tougher to generate.

Offense overall ran high for the second week in a row. Both week nine and ten ranked third in scoring among the seasons since 2015, the year the study began. Home runs were strong both weeks, over 2.5 per game. Walks were lower than the season average, and BABIP hits were up as well.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.337, 0.736 — Brandon Marsh batting at Patrick Corbin.
• 0.337, 0.742 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
• 0.333, 0.729 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
• 0.300, 0.684 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
• 0.290, 0.706 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.286, 0.673 — Julio Rodriguez batting at Chris Bassitt.
• 0.286, 0.674 — Dominic Canzone batting at Chris Bassitt.
• 0.284, 0.685 — Yordan Alvarez batting at Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.284, 0.671 — Josh Naylor batting at Chris Bassitt.
• 0.283, 0.689 — Jeremy Pena batting at Grayson Rodriguez.

MLB scheduled just eight games for today.

Marsh only faced Corbin four times, with a walk and a sacrifice fly, while Arraez stands four for fourteen against Mikolas, with no extra-base hits, walks or strikeouts. Marsh is on the road, so he might get an extra PA.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.337, 0.742 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
• 0.337, 0.736 — Brandon Marsh batting at Patrick Corbin.
• 0.333, 0.729 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
• 0.290, 0.706 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Cristopher Sanchez.
• 0.265, 0.692 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Connelly Early.
• 0.283, 0.689 — Jeremy Pena batting at Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.284, 0.685 — Yordan Alvarez batting at Grayson Rodriguez.
• 0.270, 0.684 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Andrew Abbott.
• 0.300, 0.684 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
• 0.277, 0.676 — Trea Turner batting at Patrick Corbin.
• 0.286, 0.674 — Dominic Canzone batting at Chris Bassitt.

Andujar came out of yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury, so this list goes to eleven. The two systems agree on Arraez and Marsh as the double down choice, while Lee works on extending his fifteen game hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers sits third as he posted a two for five in a 13-5 Angels win. Mike Trout went 0 for 6 in the game, but the 6-9 hitters for the Angels combined for 13 hits and four walks, 12 of the hits singles.

Willson Contreras of the Red Sox moved into fifth place with a double in four trips to the plate in a 6-1 Yankees win. Contreras is posting the best offensive season of his career, with a .298/.391/.540 slash line. That’s unusual for seasonal age 34 player.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Carson Benge of the Mets, an 88. He went five for five from the leadoff slot with a triple and a home run, missing the cycle by a double. Benge started getting on base better in early May. Over his last 32 games he owns a .328/.390/.516 slash line, with six games of at least three hits.

The Guardians send Joey Cantillo against Jacob deGrom. Cantillo allows a high OBP, .345, but kept his ERA low by holding opponents to a .132 BA with runners in scoring position. Eleven of his 34 walks came in that situation, so he seems to be using the walks defensively to avoid good hitters stinging him. deGrom got stung by home runs this season. He already allowed 13 after giving up 26 in 2025.

Enjoy!

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers started the bottom of the first inning against the Angels with an infield hit, and finished the scoring with a two-run homer as the Dodgers scored nine runs in the inning to beat the Angels 9-2. Ohtani added a walk to the two hits and now ranks third.

Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates fills out the top five, one for four with a double in a 6-3 Braves win.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs, an 84. He went four for five with two home runs in a 3-2, 10 inning win over the Giants, both home runs tying the game after the Giants scored in the top of the sixth and the top of the ninth. Armstrong owns a .343 OBP this season, a huge improvement in getting on base. While his power is down a bit this season, it does not come at a high cost of outs.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.324, 0.712 — Jackson Chourio batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.322, 0.700 — William Contreras batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.319, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.319, 0.698 — Andrew Vaughn batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.310, 0.693 — Brice Turang batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.309, 0.716 — Yandy Diaz batting at Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.302, 0.667 — Jake Bauers batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.300, 0.686 — Carlos Cortes batting at Mike Burrows.
• 0.296, 0.717 — Luis Arraez batting at Jameson Taillon.
• 0.294, 0.703 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Griffin Jax.

The Brewers dominate the top ten as Freeland pitched poorly again this season, allowing a .351 BABIP and a home runs at a rate of 2.44 per 9 IP.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.296, 0.717 — Luis Arraez batting at Jameson Taillon.
• 0.309, 0.716 — Yandy Diaz batting at Sandy Alcantara.
• 0.324, 0.712 — Jackson Chourio batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.292, 0.706 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Shane Baz.
• 0.288, 0.705 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Tyler Gilbert.
• 0.293, 0.703 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Jameson Taillon.
• 0.294, 0.703 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Griffin Jax.
• 0.319, 0.702 — Christian Yelich batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.322, 0.700 — William Contreras batting at Kyle Freeland.
• 0.319, 0.698 — Andrew Vaughn batting at Kyle Freeland.

Arraez owns a seven game hit streak, while his teammate, Lee hit in eleven in a row, the longest active streak in the majors. Chourio this season strikes out at a higher rate than for his career, but owns a .372 BABIP. He is the consensus top pick, with Diaz the consensus double down choice. All three are very close in probability.

The recent spate of offense brought the league hit average back up to .214, which helps the probabilities a little.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

The Pirates and Braves continue their series with Braxton Ashcraft against Spencer Strider. Ashcraft, now a full time starter, improved both his strikeout and walk rates this season. Strider pitched only 31 1/3 innings so far this season, but has be susceptible to home runs, allowing six so far.

Enjoy!

I was at the Astros game last night as my college friends and I make our annual baseball trip, and Yordan Alvarez of the home team did not disappoint. He singled, walked, and scored two runs in the 5-1 win over Athletics, dropping to second place. We’ll be at the Rangers game tonight.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers recorded a rare 0 for 4 in the lowest scoring game of the day, he ranks fourth. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates ranks fifth after drawing a walk in a 6-3 Braves win.

Adley Rutschman of the Orioles posted the best game score of the day, an 89, in a 13-3 win over the Blue Jays. He went four for four with a walk, missing the cycle by a base as he homered and hit two doubles. Rutschman is back to his early form, with a .273/.352/.506 slash line and now ranks 74th on the list.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.293, 0.709 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Brandon Eisert.
• 0.288, 0.688 — Josh Jung batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
• 0.287, 0.688 — Ildemaro Vargas batting vs. Zack Littell.
• 0.282, 0.655 — Tristan Peters batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.277, 0.655 — Chase Meidroth batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.274, 0.646 — Samuel Antonacci batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.273, 0.653 — Randal Grichuk batting at Andrew Painter.
• 0.272, 0.692 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Kyle Bradish.
• 0.272, 0.643 — Spencer Steer batting at Matthew Liberatore.
• 0.267, 0.636 — J.J. Bleday batting at Matthew Liberatore.

It looks like a good day for the White Sox. The rookie Painter is a low K, low BB pitcher with a high BABIP. Peters, in his second season owns a .341 BABIP.

Vargas is listed as day to day with a thigh issue.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.293, 0.709 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Brandon Eisert.
• 0.256, 0.701 — Luis Arraez batting at Ben Brown.
• 0.272, 0.692 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Kyle Bradish.
• 0.287, 0.688 — Ildemaro Vargas batting vs. Zack Littell.
• 0.288, 0.688 — Josh Jung batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
• 0.249, 0.681 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Ben Brown.
• 0.258, 0.681 — Nick Gonzales batting at Spencer Strider.
• 0.263, 0.677 — Jackson Chourio batting at Valente Bellozo.
• 0.242, 0.674 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Shane McClanahan.
• 0.257, 0.673 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Kade Morris.

The White Sox disappear from the list as the NN weighs the batter parameters much heavier. Their opponent, Brandon Marsh stays at the top of the list, however. Eisert serves as an opener, however, so Sean Burke may get the bulk of the innings. Jung stands as the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

The Guardians visit the Rangers with Parker Messick facing Kumar Rocker. Messick is another second season starter with a great ERA. His stands at 2.39 in 19 starts and 109 innings. He struck out 112 batters while walking just 27. Rocker, like Young, improved his ERA by cutting down on homers allowed. His ERA went from 5.74 in 2025 to 3.54 this season.

Enjoy!

The Dodgers did play, but gave Shohei Ohtani the evening off, and he remains in second place. The Diamondbacks took the game 3-2.

Jackson Chourio of the Brewers posted the highest game score of the day, an 83. He went three for four with two home runs and a walk in a 12-9 Giants win. He’s hitting .303/.373/.505 after starting the season on the illjured list.

Having experienced discomfort over the past several weeks that was initially diagnosed as a bone bruise near his right rib cage, Judge underwent an MRI on Tuesday at the direction of Dr. Gregory J. Pearl of Dallas, Texas, who specializes in “thoracic outlet syndrome management in high-performance athletes,” according to his practice’s website.

Judge missed his first game of the season on Tuesday after reporting discomfort during the club’s series against the Athletics in West Sacramento. According to manager Aaron Boone, Judge has been managing discomfort in his right shoulder for “the last couple of weeks,” though he only feels it when swinging.

MLB.com

Judge hit .163/.263/.265 over his last 13 games, another example of the a slump being caused by an injury. Note his eye for walks was right on. Luckily for the Yankees, pitching is their strength this season, so they may be able to weather this injury well.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

• 0.315, 0.702 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.300, 0.667 — Jordan Walker batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.299, 0.714 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.297, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting at Edward Cabrera.
• 0.296, 0.707 — Yandy Diaz batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.293, 0.700 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Edward Cabrera.
• 0.290, 0.705 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Anthony Kay.
• 0.289, 0.701 — Chandler Simpson batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.283, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.278, 0.689 — Troy Johnston batting vs. Brandon Sproat.

Singer’s strikeouts per nine innings dropped two per nine this season, and his BABIP went up. He allows more balls in play, and they find holes. On top of that, he allowed 16 home runs in 51 innings. Burleson and Walker can take advantage of that, as both own high BABIPs, and Walker adds a lot of power.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

• 0.297, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting at Edward Cabrera.
• 0.299, 0.714 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Brandon Young.
• 0.296, 0.707 — Yandy Diaz batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.290, 0.705 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Anthony Kay.
• 0.315, 0.702 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Brady Singer.
• 0.289, 0.701 — Chandler Simpson batting at Ryan Gusto.
• 0.293, 0.700 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Edward Cabrera.
• 0.283, 0.700 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Zebby Matthews.
• 0.278, 0.689 — Troy Johnston batting vs. Brandon Sproat.
• 0.278, 0.688 — Jackson Chourio batting at Ryan Feltner.

The lists are 90% in agreement on the batters, the order differs however. Arraez and Clement own the high probabilities. Arraez and Clement tie for the consensus top choice, with Burleson just behind them.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!