Baylor Football Blog

Blog Moves

2007-09-01T23:16:00.001-05:00

Again, yes, I know.

But now we have a permanent home.

And what better day to check it out than when I'm all pissed off by that terrible TCU game?

BRUINSBOLD.COM

Baylor Football Blog Moved!

2006-09-10T00:03:00.000-05:00

I've moved the Baylor Football Blog to a new address to reflect an expansion in coverage.

The new site Baylor Sports Unlimited is going to not only look at the Baylor football team, but also look at men and women's basketball, as well as baseball (pending finding someone that is willing to take up this task!).

I won't be updating this site anymore, but I would love for everyone to continue to read over on the new site. I'm hoping the new place will be a little more structured and a lot more informative.

Thanks!

It's Game Day

2006-09-09T12:10:00.000-05:00

I'm sitting here watching Missouri just take Ole Miss apart, and I'm thinking that we better be at least this good against NSU. There's 2 minutes left in the first quarter, and MU has outgained Mississippi 153 yards to 5 yards. They only lead 7-0, but are sitting inside the 20 about to score.

I know it's game-day, and I'm likely not as objective as I should be, but I am really wondering if NSU is going to be able to score much against our defense. I know that we have a starter out at defensive tackle, but that's supposed to be one of our deepest positions. I think if we have made a big stride this week in offense, learning from our mistakes against TCU, then we should see a team that is dominant on both sides of the ball.

I think the goal for this game has to be to score more than 50 points and hold NSU to less than 10 points.

Northwestern State.... Huh.

2006-09-08T13:05:00.000-05:00

I have to admit that I'm having a hard time getting up for this game. It's a D1-AA opponent, and we just nearly knocked off a Top 25 team. I sure hope that the team isn't suffering from the same malaise as I am.

But there are some positive things that we can accomplish this weekend. Bell needs to show that he can be effective in the redzone. He needs to show that he can hit a receiver downfield. He needs to show that he can be decisive when running the ball. And he needs to do a MUCH better job of hitting his receivers in stride for maximum YAC (yards after catch), which this system is built on.

Our running backs needs to hit the holes harder. We've been saying this for a long time, and Paul even showed some of it this past week, but then they'd go and run into the back of their offensive linemen instead of hitting a gap. We also need to catch the ball better. This has a lot to do with Bell's placement of the ball, and yes Paul had a huge catch for a 2-yard gain, but we can't afford to blow a play because our QB can't get the ball to our running back in the flats, or the RB in the flats can't catch it.

Our receivers need to be much more physical in their play. And stop cramping up. How hard is it to get hydrated? I sure hope they have started hitting the pedialite already. Payne needs to find a job out there. If you aren't going to catch the ball, then throw a block. Sorry, that's my one "call-out" for the week.

The defense should be dominant. And I seriously mean DOMINANT. TCUs line was inexperienced as far as starters go, but NSUs line is YOUNG, YOUNG, YOUNG. Redshirt freshmen, sophomores and a converted DE. We should rip these guys up. And we better. The tackles have to get penetration, and the linebackers have to fill the holes (preferably all the way into their backfield). I'm not concerned about the secondary as much, but they can't just sit back and relax.

This needs to be a statement game. Yes, it's just a D1-AA school, but we need to show that we mean to get the season re-started, and on a better foot. Let's come out and knock them down and then step on their throat. Let's show the killer instinct we couldn't find against TCU. Let's be the better team, again, and let's remove any doubt. Let's take away any chance of people in the future saying, "Yeah, they're in the Big XII, but..."

Baylor 56-13. I think we could give up fewer points than that, but the defense is going to have to prove to me that they are capable of concentrating for the whole game. I think they have every chance of shutting this opponent out. And they should do it, but it's hard to predict that when in their last two games, they've laid an egg in the second half (OSU in 2005 and TCU in 2006).

Top 5

2006-09-05T15:11:00.000-05:00

Here are the Top 5 positives and the Top 5 negatives Baylor fans should take away from the TCU/BU game.

Top 5 Positives:
5. The offense.
It is at least as good as last years. It might not be better yet, but we produced more than we averaged last year, and looked good at times.

4. Daniel Sepulveda.
Coming off his injury, he boomed a huge punt that pinned TCU at their own 15 yard line, and averaged over 43 yards per punt on the day. Not bad for coming back 4 weeks early. Hopefully he won't have to punt much this weekend and be able to be 100% by the time we head to Seattle.

3. The defense.
This battled hard for the top spot, but we gave up two late scores (last 18 minutes of the game), and had some trouble wrapping up on our tackles. There are a lot of young players out there, so that should get better, but they didn't deserve #1 or #2 this week.

2. Terrance Parks at Receiver.
The guy looked very good out there, showed very good hands and got up the field quickly after the catch.

1. The offensive line.
We had a couple problems with penalties early, but only gave up one sack on the day and gave Bell

Top 5 Negatives:
5. Penalties.
I know one of Jason Smith's penalties was bogus, but twice we took ourselves out of field goal range because of penalties. Havens was within a couple feet of nailing a 47-yard field goal. His accuracy when under 40-yards: 100%. More than 40-yards: ~50%.

4. Kickcoverage.
I've never understood why it's so hard to stay in your lane when on kick coverage. Really, how often does this need to be practiced? That 69-yard kickoff return was the beginning of a huge shift in momentum, and it was easily fixable. We stop him between the 20 and the 30, and we likely get another 3 and out. Instead, we give them great field position so that when we shut down their offense, they are still able to kick the field goal.

3. Misdirection defense.
I don't know how many times TCU got big yardage on the counter plays, or the pump-fake to one side, screen to the other plays. But we need to learn not to overpursue. I'm hoping experience will help with this.

2. Red-zone.
I know, I know, we turned the ball over or got penalties. It's not like we floundered through 3 downs and had to settle for a FG, but we didn't score at ALL. We have to settle down when we get into the redzone, and we have to realize when we are that close to scoring, we can't be careless with the ball.

1. Shawn Bell's ball placement.
Shawn has to learn to lead his receviers and hit them in stride. This offense is predicated on yards gained after the catch. Sure, you only have to throw the ball five yards, but you should at least give the receiver a chance to turn that into a big play. Zeigler and Shelton were making NFL-caliber catches, and getting 7 yards for them. We need to let our playmakers make plays.

Turnovers and Penalties Stump Baylor

2006-09-04T15:22:00.000-05:00

In front of the largest home crowd since 1973, Baylor looked ready to storm to a big win over the #22 TCU Horned Frogs. After the first quarter, the Baylor defense had held TCU to just 11 total yards, had gained 79 of their own in the new spread offense. Baylor would score its first touchdown, set up by CJ Wilson's 46 yard interception return, less than 3 minutes into the second quarter, but the offense sputtered the rest of the night after that.

The defense gave up one big play and one long drive and they proved to be the difference in the game. With 3 minutes left in the third quarter, a blown coverage left Aaron Brown come free out of the backfield, and catch a pass he would take the distance, 84-yards for the touchdown. That's the price of playing RSFR at linebacker.

But the long drive (12 plays, 86 yards) was what put the nail in the coffin for the day. The drive lasted more than 5 minutes, and wore on a defense that was depleted by injuries (LQ McDonald, Brandon Stiggers) and lack of hydration.

Those 14-points not only provided the 10point margin TCU won the game by, but also put a big dent in the confidence of the team.

Let's recap the offenses' performance on the day.

Shawn Bell passed for 286 yards on 31/47 passing (66%) with 1 TD and 1 INT. He was efficient, but continues to lack that killer instinct. I've seen him have it once, after coming off the bench against Missouri. That was the only game I remember him seeming relentless. Where is it? He better find it against Northwestern State.

Brandon Whitaker and Paul Mosley alternated between looking very good and looking just bad. Paul opened the game with an 8-yard run up the middle and had a 9 yard run mixed in there, but ended the day with only 17 other yards on 10 carries. Whitaker was worse. He had a long carry of 15 yards, but ended the day with only 18 net yards on 5 carries.

With the receivers, it was hard to tell. Parks played like a man, catching 7 passes for 65 very tough yards. On almost every catch he was either hit at the catch, or just after, and he was making catches in the teeth of TCUs defensive strength and experience. Zeigler had 6 catches for 56 yards, but was forced to make a couple circus catches to get those. Twice he had to lay out to make a catch. Shelton had the catch of the day, but ended with only 5 catches for 61 yards. Baker was the only person on Baylor's offense that scored, grabbing a 21 yard touchdown, but finished with 5 catches for 45 yards.

The main thing I noticed about the passing game is that while Bell doesn't really do anything to really scare you, he still isn't a very good QB. He consistently puts the ball where it makes for a difficult catch. On two of the cataches for Zeigler that didn't require him to slide on the field to make the catch, he had to slow down and reach behind him to get it. Shelton had to really work for his catches, too. And Mosley got up-ended after going up in the air to grab a two-yard pass. Morriss is right that we need more of a "gunslinger" out there, but even more than the killer-instinct is the need for someone that can lead their receivers, hit them in stride and not get them killed. Hopefully this, too, will improve over the next few games.

Now for the coaching...

I thought the offense moved well from 20-to-20. And Coach Hays admitted to my main concern: we never got really aggressive. The whole point of this offense is to be explosive, but we never really made an effort to get vertical. I KNOW Bell doesn't have a cannon, but my biggest fears were realized in that we consistently settled for a 5-yard drag route, or the crossing route 7-yards down the field. And my biggest aggravation: the little screen pass to the sideline that gained a total of zero yards until the final drive when TCU was in prevent mode, and barely 10 yards then.

I haven't watched the game again yet, but I don't remember seeing a screen pass to Whitaker until the final play of the game. I don't remember seeing a middle screen. I don't remember seeing a fade or corner route to the endzone when we got within 25 yards. The 4th and 1 play just didn't seem smart. We might have run play-action twice all game. There seemed to be a lot of things available to us that we didn't take advantage of, and I don't know why. I don't mean to say this was a sole reason, or even the primary reason, but I think it was of the main reasons, and I think that it's something that needs improvement quickly. Coach Hays says he realizes he needs to be more aggressive, so we'll see what we see next week.

On the defensive side of the ball, there was a lot more to be happy about, and a couple things to be just as upset about.

We gave up 330 yards on the day. That's 43 yards below our average for last year, which is good to see, but this was a performance with a lot of "could have"s. It could have been so much better. If we would have not blown the coverage on Aaron Brown, and not given up the 3rd down play, that's 84 fewer yards. We are not only looking at getting the ball back with decent field position, but the game is still 7-3 Baylor. If we could have stopped them on ANY 3rd-and-short, that would have been an improvement. We had three 3rd and shorts (1, 2, and 2 yards) and we gave up at least 1 yard too many on all three. TCU never went for it on fourth down, and maybe they would have gotten it on 4th if we stop them on 3rd, but maybe they punt it back to us. The fact is that we never forced them to make that decision.

Our defensive line played a good stalemate game, but aside from Geoff Nelson and Marcus Foreman, we didn't have any playmakers on the defensive line. You'll notice that neither one of those guys is a defensive tackle. We were up against a line that had one returning starter. I don't care how much backup duty the guys had, they weren't Big XII caliber and we are calling ourselves Big XII caliber. We didn't show it on the interior and we didn't show enough on the outside. Our lone sack was a combination of an end and and outside safety. Our only two QB hurries were from Nick Moore. If we can't manufacture some pass rush from the line, we aren't going to be performing to the level of our talk. MT Robinson and Klayton Shoals, two seniors, each had an assisted tackle. That's it. Vincent Rhodes and Corey Ford has 1 solo tackle apiece. Jason Lamb managed a tackle and two assists. I understand that we were running a 3 man front a lot of the time, but we have to get something from the line: pass breakups, tipped passes, and hurries if not tackles for loss and sacks.

The linebackers had a couple mental breakdowns that overshadowed their efforts, but were solid most of the game. The biggest player of the corps was Nick Moore, who showed that his experience really does mean something, leading all linebackers with 6 tackles, and half a TFL, as well as two QB hurries. We need more and better production from our young 'backers, but that should come in time. They weren't a glaring weakness, but didn't make the plays that we got from Allred and Harper.

The secondary played alright most of the night. There was a blown coverage that gave up the 84-yard touchdown, and Jackson completed 11/13 passes, but only gave up 8.6 yards per completion, even with the 84-yard pass. Without it, that number drops to 5.7 yards per completion. CJ Wilson got an interception, and nearly came away with another late in the game. We need more plays to be made, and we need better tackling. It seemed like some of the new players were going for the big hit, rather than wrapping up and taking the player to the ground. You don't have to blow guys up with every tackle. Just make sure you get him. I think of it like the "Roy Williams" mindset. It drives me crazy. Especially from our free safety...

Coaching -

I think the defensive coaches did a good job. The blitz wasn't as effective as I'd hoped, and we didn't adjust well to the new QB, but the blown coverage wasn't the coaches fault and the defense looked sound all game long.

Special teams was frustrating. Missed a field goal, poor coverage on kickoff to set up a TCU score. We needed a good effort across the board from the special teams, and we didn't get it. If we tackle that guy to open the second half around the 20 and force a 3 and out, TCU doesn't have nearly the momentum that they got off that one return. They were looking for ONE thing to give them an excuse to get excited, and we gave it to them.

Special teams against better teams is like Shawn Bell's Quarterbacking. On it's own, it isn't going to win us a game, but unless it's very good, it can lose us a game.

Overall, I have to give the team a grade of a B. We moved the ball well in the new system, we played good defense against a polished offense, and we only made a few mistakes. Those mistakes turned the game around, though. We can't keep doing that if we plan on getting to a bowl game.

Northwestern State is coming up!

Some Quick Thoughts

2006-09-04T14:58:00.000-05:00

OK, I'm about to head out to see Snakes on a Plane, but I have to write something, since it's been more than 15 hours since I've arrived home from the game.

1. The defense is better than last years version. The new guys stepped in, and while their inexperience showed and they'll need some seasoning, the future is bright.

2. The offense is going to be good this year. Yes, we had trouble in the redzone with turnovers, but it's not like Shawn was throwing the ball to a cornerback, or Mosley just gave up that fumble. These weren't "mental error" turnovers, TCU got lucky that their DT got his hand on the ball in such a way that it bounced in a high arc directly to Ortiz. If it had traveled on down the field, it was likely to fall to the ground, if not be caught by a Baylor receiver.

3. Sepulveda is back. What a monster punt to announce that he is truly recovered.

4. CJ Wilson talks. And he backed up his game. But until the offense can punch the ball into the endzone, the chatter needs to come down a few notches. And then we can let our wins speak for themselves. How about it?

5. TCU is NOT a Top 25 team. Or Baylor is a lot closer to that than we believe.

6. Baylor still has a great shot at 7 wins. I think this team is way ahead of last years team at the same point.

7. Baylor has more Chicken Littles than any school I've ever encountered. Baylor fans make Aggies look calm, and objective about their team.

I'll have a more complete game recap later tonight.

Big XII Has Disappointing Opening Day

2006-09-02T23:19:00.000-05:00

Huh, the Big XII is worse than I thought. And I have a nice warm feeling about our Big XII North opponents after a very disappointing opening day. Let's start with the most pathetic and then go through the most impressive.

Colorado - You lost to Montana State. My scalp is bleeding from the incredible amount of head-scratching.

Kansas State - A 1 point win over Illinois State is one thing, but the fact that you relied on two special teams scores to get those 24 points you put up is something altogether more pathetic. KSU was out-gained by ISU by 134 yards (346-212), had 8 fewer first downs, a worse 3rd down conversion rate, less than 50 yards rushing, and had 4 penalties (ISU had zero). They allowed a 100-yard rusher and a 250-yard passer.

Kansas - Yes, you got a blowout win over NWSU (our opponent next week), but come on guys, you've got to represent better than that. KU out gained NWSU by only 56 yards (336-280), had only 5 more first downs, only 129 yards passing, and two turnovers. KU also had two special teams touchdowns to pad the score.

Texas A&M - It's the Citadel. A 32-point win is disgusting. What happened to all the leadership that McGee was going to use to propel the "best offense in the Big XII" to greatness. What happened to the great running attack? What about the best kicker in the conference? A&M rolled up an astounding 384 yards of offense against the mighty Citadel defense, renowned in D-1AA (or is it D2?) for their devastating blows and stifling, swarming schemes. McGee rallied the troops to an incredibly 200 yards passing and 1 touchdown, playing the entire game. He also rushed 8 times for 8 yards (2.2ypc), to show that Aggies won't miss Reggie's feet, either. Oh and that three-headed monster that is going to crush the Big XII? Oh yeah, they averaged 42 yards rushing, and combined for 17 yards receiving (all by Lewis on two catches). Excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the ground.

Iowa State - Yes, you got the win. And yes, Toledo is no pushover. But OT for a non-conference foe from a mid-major conference? And not just OT, but giving up over 400 yards of offense, nearly 80% completion rate, and losing the T.O.P. battle? Wasn't ISU supposed to have a good secondary? I can't see that any ISU player had a bad game, but the sum of their games wasn't great. That, or their defense needs to show up.

Oklahoma - Ya'll should have lost this game, and you know it. 14 first downs? UAB had 14, too. 143 yards rushing? UAB had 135. UAB also had 11 more minutes of possession. Paul Thompson is just going to get worse. He's got too many weaknesses, and those interceptions are going to start to outnumber the touchdowns. And where is the talent in the secondary? I guess I can't see it because Thompson can't properly take advantage of it. If Peterson doesn't average 30 carries a game, OU is going to have a hard time getting to a bowl game.

Texas Tech - You beat SMU 35-3. Not bad, but the game was much more one-sided than that. Kinda like the opposite of A&Ms 35-3 game. 18 more first downs. 312 more yards of offense. Only 1 interception. Very good start to the year. The only disappointment is that Tech really should have put 40+ on SMU, but as far as Texas Tech openers go, this was a good one.

Missouri - 40 point win? Check. Offensive and defensive domination? Check. Taking care of an incredibly overmatched opponent? Check. Colorado, you should watch the MU film tomorrow morning for what your game should have looked like. A&M, you might want to stop by, too.

Nebraska - This was really a toss-up with Missouri. But since NU beat up on a more talented opponent, they get the nod. A very good offensive game, with plenty of balance. NU got banged up some with Grixby and Lucky sitting out for part of the game before coming back in, and another Cornhusker out for the game early, but NU rolled basically the whole game. With the way they were rushing the ball, you sometimes forgot they are a West Coast Offense team now.

Texas - Yeah, this one was over before kickoff. Holding UNT to less than 100 yards of offense was greatness. The speed and depth of the UT defense is astounding, and makes another run at a conference/national title look realistic. The receivers also shined, although I wasn't all that impressed with McCoy and Snead looks like he could have used a redshirt year. Sweed is special. UT did exactly what they should have done: dominate completely. It wasn't a perfect game, giving up a 9-play, 80-yard drive for a touchdown, but I think 5 of UNTs 6 first downs came on that one drive, so the rest of the game was exceptional.

Hopefully, Baylor can have a game like MU, NU or UT, and I won't have to come on here and talk about how we fit in with the KU, KSUs and CUs of the conference. Shoot, I'd take an A&M-like disappointing 35-3 win!

16 hours to go! I'll be arriving in Waco in 12 hours to start the tailgate. See ya'll there.

College Football Is Here

2006-09-01T21:29:00.000-05:00

It's here everyone!

Tomorrow is going to be a hard day to get through, because every game will remind me that Baylor doesn't play until Sunday!

There's not much I haven't covered about the upcoming TCU game, but I've passed through my nervous phase and I am just getting excited about seeing some Baylor football.

Good luck to all the Baylor players, and know that there are tens of thousands of Baylor fans looking forward to your performance this Sunday.

Can't wait!

Three More Days, Four More Nights

2006-08-30T20:21:00.000-05:00

Baylor's season is just around the corner. It's always about this time that I start to have doubts about the season. And why not? Our recent history is not exactly comforting. We've just had our best season ever in the Big XII with a 2-6 record. Really. Two conference wins is our best effort ever. So why the confidence?

I ask myself this in light of the recent article on CJ Wilson, and the air of expectations and confidence that has surrounded the program all offseason long. Why are we so confident ?

Let me pick out some reasons that our skeptics have good ground:

Even with our "great" defense last year, we ranked 8th in scoring and 10th in total yardage allowed in conference.
The receiving corps we are calling one of the "best in the Big XII" if not THE best, caught only 222 passes last year (6th in the Big XII) for 2,288 yards (7th in the Big XII) and 13 TDs (T-9th in the Big XII).
We lost 7 starters on defense, including many of our leaders in Allred, Andrews and Lane.
We got blown out by Tech and Texas by a combined 90-0.

I can understand those reasons, I can see why people think that. I really can. And there's a chance that they are right and I (we?) are wrong. There's a chance that the defense isn't as good as we thought it was, and that our returning playmakers aren't as good as we think they are.

Then there's the other side of the equation. Say our opponents are as good as they think they are.

TCU was 11-1 last year. Yes, they dropped the game to SMU, but they beat OU, they ran through the MWC undefeated and beat ISU in a bowl game.
Washington State had a worse record than we did, but they lost 5 games by 17 total points. We like to say we were THIS CLOSE to a 7-4 season. WSU was THIS CLOSE to a 9-2 season.
Texas A&M has a bad pass defense. But maybe McGee's leadership IS the difference. Maybe Fran will utilize their good offensive line and those three running backs perfectly and they get to rest plenty because of the weak non-conference schedule. Maybe Darnell IS the answer on defense. [ok, I know. That's TOO much of a stretch]
Kansas and Kansas State have had a lot more success than Baylor lately, maybe we are underestimating their talent. They are young, but young players have a way of coming together at certain moments and playing way over their heads, especially when they smell a chance at an upset. Maybe we should keep that in mind.

In the hopes of being as objective as possible, I've tried to think about these things. I've tried to really look at the matchups in personnel. But I still think 7-5 is the answer to how this team will perform this year.

This defense did have moments where they didn't look fantastic, but there were moments when they stood up and dominated people. They gave up a lot of rushing yards, but they have looked a lot tougher this offseason than I remember. I'm not sure if that's the addition of Coach Kinne, the result of Coach Wnek having an offseason with the guys on the line, or what, but there's a toughness there that wasn't present last year. Which is actually a surprise to me, because I thought we would continue to suffer that going against a more finesse-type offense.

The receiving corps numbers suffered because we had an OC that didn't know what QB to use, kept trying to run a system that called for a big arm when we didn't have one, and had incredibly questionable play-calling. More than looking at those numbers and getting discouraged, I look at them and think, "Man, these guys are going to shock everyone." Seriously, the fact that Dominique Zeigler has averaged 531 yards over the last two years is sick. This is a guy that should have been averaging 1,000 yards a year. Trent Shelton is an even better case of a guy who should have produced way more. This system is going to change all that.

Losing the starters on defense was a blow, no doubt. We'll miss Andrews, Allred, Harper, Gary, Lindstrom, Lane, and Murphy. They were a big part of our team for a long time. But let's try to remember that it's not like we are going to only be playing with 4 players on defense. We lose Lane, but gain Crawford. We lose Andrews and gain Stiggers. We lose Gary and Murphy, but replace them with 4 other senior starters, Vincent Rhodes(who started 2 games last year), Julian Hill, and a lot of talented youth. In place of Harper and Allred, we get Moore and Jones. Jones is one of the most promising players on defense and looks to be a 4-year starter. While we lose Lindstrom, we keep Linquist (who started 4 games last year) at that position.

The Tech and Texas games were our most disappointing performances for me. Against Tech, we were down by 6 points with 10 minutes left in the game. We had confused and basically shut down Tech's offense up to that point. We had held them to 159 yards passing. That's an outstanding start on a game against Tech. But our offense stunningly didn't show up (ala Texas A&M). Here we are, just like the A&M game, facing a defense that we should have had no problem moving the ball on and scoring against and we proved incredibly inept.

The Texas game started out well. Only down 6-0 after the first quarter, I was feeling pretty good about the game. That feeling quickly seeped away as Texas went off for 21 points in the second quarter. And we hadn't done anything on offense. 90 yards in the first half. Granted we were playing the eventual National Champions. Granted we were starting a new QB. But we didn't do anything. Very frustrating. But NOT indicative of the year we had last year. You take those two games out, and we outscored our opponents by 35 points.

There's also the "close" victories. We only beat SMU by 5, Army by 10, and OSU by 10. But the common thread of all those games is that Morriss emptied the bench at the end of the game. Against SMU and Army, he played a lot of young players to get them ready for the Big XII season in which they would be expected to contribute. Against OSU (on senior day), Morriss played a lot of guys that would never otherwise have seen the field. In the SMU game, we gave up a touchdown with 19 seconds left. In the Army game, we gave up a touchdown with 45 seconds left in the game. And THIS is the best/worse: Against OSU, we gave up 13 points in the last 50 seconds.

All that doesn't really matter, but the bottom line is that there is GOOD reason to be confident this year. There is good reason to feel good about this team. This isn't minimizing losses and maximizing gains, it's recognizing that the guys we are bringing in are more in line with what Baylor needs to compete at the Big XII level.

Wow, this was MUCH longer than I thought it would be.

CJ Wilson is my Favorite Player

2006-08-30T11:04:00.000-05:00

Anyone who really knows me knows that CJ Wilson is my favorite Baylor football player and has been for a while now. But in the last year, he's really stepped up his smack-talking game. It's pretty amazing what the guy comes up with. And how he backs it up.

CJ Backs up His Smack in the Houston Chronicle

This is an article that came out today that is filled with more CJ-isms. Now TCU fans will undoubtedly get their feelings hurt or feel upset in some way reading these things, but know this: CJ is just joking around.

Sorta.

"They recruited a guy they felt was better than I was. I have no problem
with that," he said. "So when we go out there, if you see me pointing at a coach or two or some players, you'll know why. The guy they recruited over me, no disrespect to him, but I still don't know who this guy is. He's on the roster. I will be pointing at him, too."

He probably will point at the TCU coaches. And it will be hilarious. Think about that for a second. CJ Wilson, All-Big XII (Not MWC), Thorpe Award candidate, led the Big XII in interceptions last year, Heisman-hopeful (I'll explain later), and TCU passed on him for some nobody... Wow.

But you're probably wondering about what I meant about the Heisman-hopeful bit. Here ya go:

“Charles Woodson did it. He’s No. 2. Why not take it up a notch to No. 3? The Thorpe Award is already here with Thomas Everett. I wanted to get it out of the case, but my name’s not on it, so they’ll know it’s not mine. But I want the Heisman.”

Now you can say that Woodson also returned kicks and punts, but are you going to tell him he can't do it? I'm not.

CJ is one of the best players on the team. That fact is sometimes overlooked, especially since the secondary is so strong. But there aren't many 6-1 195 guys that get the title of "Fastest Man in the Conference" as CJ did this past offseason. Think Anthony Henry, cornerback for the Dallas Cowboys. There's a reason there have been NFL scouts at nearly every practice watching CJ (and Arline, Zeigler and Shelton, too).

Don't be too upset at the smack talking from CJ. He does it in a joking way, because he's a joyful guy.

It's going to be good, clean fun. It's going to be worth your ticket."

I bet it will be, I'm counting on it.

Ask Ian Recap

2006-08-29T11:15:00.000-05:00

Ian McCaw, Baylor's Athletic Director, had a live chat this morning on Baylorbears.com. Here's a quick recap of what he talked about.

First question dealt with season ticket sales, and the news was surprisingly good. The season ticket sales are already greater than 2005, and Ian is hoping that we'll increase that number by a further 1,000 by the time the TCU game rolls around. I've been looking for 2005s season ticket numbers, but I can't find them. The last I heard was that we had more than 11,000 sold, and that the faculty and administration were yet to get their, so that number will go up. I think if we got around 14,000 season tickets sold this year, it would be a success, and if we got more than 17,000, that would be huge.

Ian also said that they are expecting the TCU/Baylor crowd to be 80% Baylor fans, which would be very encouraging.

Equestrian program was mentioned. Not sure why, football is 5 days away...

Good news on the Baylor Line front. More than 2,000 jerseys have been sold, up from the previous record of nearly 1,500. That's great news, indeed, as the Baylor Line has a great impact on the game. I hope the increase in general student turnout is just as good, as it would mean we'd likely have between 7 and 9 thousand students at the game. We averaged just under 6k last year.

Supposedly the new basketball schedule will be coming out, which is good news. I am very excited about the upcoming season and am eager to know who we'll be facing in the non-conference.

Someone asked about Ian's loyalty to Baylor if another school comes calling... COME ON, FOLKS!! We're FIVE days away from FOOTBALL! And I'm mad because Ian didn't answer my question about what he's doing about locking up Morriss and Drew for the long term, yet he found time to assure all of us that he's going to be around. I like the guy, but I care more about two of the best Head Coaches in the Big XII still being at Baylor next year and on into the future.

Two separate people addressed the issue of having alcohol at their tailgates. I hope everything got cleared up. Both times.

More exciting basketball news, the new Practice Facility will officially open September 8th. If you are interested in seeing the facility, tours will begin at 2pm. If you haven't checked out the pictures of this place, you need to. Amazing.

Here's a picture from the Waco Tribune-Herald.

Nice, huh? The floor is an exact replica of the Ferrell Centers floor.

That's really all that was mentioned of any importance in the chat. Not a ton of new stuff, but I'm encouraged with how the Baylor Line seems to be energized. Hopefully the team will be, too, and we can kick the season off right.

Sepulveda Likely to Kick Against TCU

2006-08-29T09:53:00.000-05:00

Daniel Sepulveda said that after talking with his parents, his coaches and his doctor, he's likely to kick against TCU in this Sunday's matchup. Only 4 months removed from surgery to repair his ACL, the 2004 Ray Guy Award winner is wanting to get back on the field.

I think this is a pretty amazing recovery, but I hope the coaches are being smart about this. Having Daniel available to punt in conference play, when we want those Big XII offenses as much of the field to cover as possible is MUCH more important than an extra 5-8 yards per punt against TCU. Especially if the cost of those extra yards is DS sitting out a couple more games because he tweaked it again.

I guess we could rest him against NWSU and Army if it gets a little sore, but this would definitely be a risky move.

But it's his risky move to make.

Baylor Football Blog "Realistic" Season Predictions

2006-08-26T18:20:00.000-05:00

And here it is. Try to remember that I am making this prediction knowing that there are a number of question marks not only with Baylor's football team, but with our opponents as well. Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, OU, Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado, Northwestern State and Army will all be breaking in new QBs. Think about that for a second. 9 of the 12 teams we are facing this year will have QBs that aren't used to facing big time defenses and producing over the long haul. Only Oklahoma State, TCU and Washington State have QBs returning with more than 1 start. If our secondary can be as good as we think it is, then this might be one of the most important factors in how our season ends up.

Another of the biggest factors in our success is going to be our OL. Our starters will be fine if they can stay healthy (that's been an issue with Travis Farst and Will Blaylock), but our depth is questionable. There are probably only 6-8 OL that are truly ready for the Big XII. There are some that might be able to get there throughout the season, but we will need our starters healthy the whole year in order to truly have a breakout season. Losing Blaylock last year likely kept us from winning the A&M game, and might have had an effect on the Nebraska game as well. This is even more importat this year with our new offensive scheme.

Which brings us to the next biggest factor for success in the coming year: the Bear Raid offense. There is no way we can know how effective this offense will be when it comes to live games. No matter how competitive our defense is with our offense, they can't replicate the feelings our opponents will have for us. On the flip side, there are few secondaries that we are going to face that can replicate the speed and skill of our own, so that might prove to be somewhat of a balance.

I will make a prediction of win or lose as well as points for and against. As the season progresses, I will take a game-by-game prediction of what I think the outcome will be, but ya'll can feel free to rip me throughout the season if this initial prediction proves false. Here we go...

TCU - Win 27-21
There are many factors that go into this prediction. I see our offense struggling early, scoring only a couple field goals in the first half, much like SMU of last year. But in the second half as the team settles down, our superiority at wide receiver over TCUs corner backs will result in scoring 3 TDs in the second half to win the game. TCU will score consistently, I'm thinking about 1 TD each quarter for the first three, but our defense will stiffen up as they get used to the playing style of TCU and hold them as the game closes, allowing the offense to win the game for us.

Northwestern State University - W 56-10
Our scheme, our athleticism, pretty much everything will go our way in this game. I give him 10 points because I believe we'll likely have 2nd and 3rd string players in for the fourth quarter and might give up a TD. The game won't be in question after our first two drives.

@Washington State University - L 17-21
Our defense will carry us in this game on the road, but it won't be enough. Our offense will struggle to put points on the board being on the road. I also feel that after an emotional game against TCU and an easy game against NWSU, we will likely find ourselves underestimating WSU. This game could easily go our way, if our offense can click early, but I think we are going to struggle.

Army - W 42-7
We should have beaten Army by a lot more than we did last year, and this year we get them at home and we are more explosive offensively. Army loses their talented running back from last year, and their own version of Shawn Bell. They will try to replace him with a career backup, someone that was unable to seat Dahman for three years. I think this game will be relatively easy, but we likely won't pull away until the second half.

Kansas State - W 28-16
Like I've said before, I'm far from impressed with Prince and his ability to put Kansas State together in one year, let alone a few. KSU will be on the road with a new coach, a new QB and facing a much different Baylor than they might remember.

@Colorado - L 17-24
Thin air is Colorados best home field advantage. Unless our offense gels very quickly, I think we'll have most of our early troubles on the road. I think we have an even chance of taking this game and a few others, but we won't win all those 50/50 games. I think this will be one that we drop.

@Texas - L 10-28
This will be the closest UT/BU games we've seen in a long while, but their defense has shown itself capable of shutting Tech's offense down and their running game is still going to be among the best in the nation, thus taking care of both our biggest offensive strength and our chief defensive weakness. With their young QB it will seem closer than the score indicates while the outcome will seem more inevitable.

Kansas - W 28-0
Their defense is young and inexperienced. We get them at home and with their offense, our defense will pitch its first shutout. We will get turnovers on defense and move the ball well on offense. We won't be smooth in our offense, yet, but we will be much more effective.

Texas A&M - W 35-17
A&M will be able to run the ball on us, but unlike Texas they won't have the defense to stop us cold. With the ability to clinch a bowl game and the recent pickup in the rivalry between our schools, the team will put up the most complete performance against a quality team in years. A&M will likely win 8 games next year, but we will be in control from wire to wire in this one.

@Texas Tech - L 13-24
Lubbock is one of the toughest places to play in the Big XII and we will struggle against a defense that sees this type of offense every day in practice. The game will likely be closer than the 11 point margin, much like last year, but we will fail to capitalize on at least one scoring drive late in the game to pull close enough to threaten.

@Oklahoma State - W 38-16
Last year we allowed OSU to close the gap in the last 50 seconds, turning a 23-point blowout into a simple 10-point margin. We also froze up offensively in the second half, scoring only 6 points. Neither of those things will happen this year as we will roll down the field and confuse Bobby Reid and whatever backup QB they put in the game when he's shell-shocked into more turnovers. They will have more weapons, but our defense will be more than up to the challenge.

Oklahoma - L 20-28
Adrian Peterson will be running behind a line that has gained a seasons worth of experience of starting and will be ready to push the ball down our throats. Their defense is good enough to slow our offense, and though I think with Paul Thompson at the helm we'll get a few turnovers, it won't be enough to overcome the unending pounding of their rushing attack. It'll be the last game of the season, so our seniors might come out big and make a difference.

So there it is. 7-5 (4-4) as a final record. I think it is possible that we finish one game in either direction of this. It's possible we pick up the game against Colorado, but equally as possible that we drop the game against OSU or Kansas.

I don't put it past this team to pick up the games against Colorado and Oklahoma, if our offense can be all it CAN be, but it's risky business to predict based on what is POSSIBLE. That's what the "best case" scenario is for.

I can also foresee this offense sputtering and struggling to a 2-2 start, and trying to catch up and dropping games that we should win en route to a 5-7 (3-5) or 6-6 (4-4) record. I really don't imagine that we will see a record any worse than that. I also think it unlikely that Baylor doesn't make a bowl game this year.

That's it, though. I'd love to hear what you have to think about the prediction, if you think me mad or even pessimistic.

Baylor Football Blog "Worst Case" Season Predictions

2006-08-26T14:25:00.000-05:00

Here they are. What is the absolute worst that I think Baylor's season could look? Again, this is not my personal prediction, just what I think are basically the "can't lose" games on our schedule, and the games that we have to show up to win.

Texas Christian University - Loss
We get them at home, but if we don't come to play and play hard, we can lose to TCU. This is going to be a tight game as it is, and we are going to need guys to make plays on offense and defense to pull it out. We very well might lose this game to open the season.

Northwestern State University - Win
D1-AA. We'd have to leave the first two strings at home to lose this one. They have a couple players, but they don't anywhere near the players to make this a game. This will be an easier game than Samford last year.

@Washington State University - Loss
On the road a LONG way from home. They have a quick strike offense and we could struggle in our first road experience.

Army - Win
We beat them last year on the road, and they are replacing both their QB and their RB. We can't lose this game.

Kansas State - Loss
This was the closest Big XII game to be a "Win" even on the worst possible season, but there isn't a Big XII team that we can sleep on and beat.

@Colorado - Loss
On the road in the thin air, the Bear Raid offense might slow down and the defense might run out of gas.

@Texas - Loss
Yeah, on to Kansas...

Kansas - Loss
See Kansas State

Texas A&M - Win
Fran could stay in B/CS and the players could coach themselves to a victory, I guess...

@Texas Tech - Loss
This was a loss in the Best Case, remember?

@Oklahoma State - Loss
Bobby Reid could have the light click on and realize he's got a ton of potential and start utilizing it. Doubtful, but possible.

Oklahoma - Loss
AD goes crazy and their defense shuts down our offense. You know, kinda like in 2004.

So, 2-10. The opposite of our "best case" scenario. I think it's more likely that we got 10-2 than 2-10, but probable and possible are two different things.

So, we've established that the season will end up between 2 and 10 wins. In the next entry, I'll throw my guess into the ring. As soon as I figure that out!

Official Baylor Football Fan Blog "Best Case" Season Prediction

2006-08-25T15:22:00.000-05:00

The time has come for me to throw some predictions at you. I'm going to give you the best case, worst case, and my personal prediction for the season. First will be the best case. Try to remember, that this really does mean, best possible case. It is in no way to be construed as my prediction. At all.

Texas Christian University - Win
We get them at home, we performed as well as they did against common opponents last year, and they lose a lot of their big playmakers and defenders, some to graduation, others to injuries.

Northwestern State University - Win
D1-AA. We polish our offensive execution in this one and get Blake some reps.

@Washington State University - Win
We go on the road, but this is a team that lost its best player by far, and while they played some teams tough, two of their four wins came against Grambling and Nevada.

Army - Win
We beat them last year on the road by 10. We get them at home, and they are breaking in a new QB for the first time in 4 years.

Kansas State - Win
Prince doesn't scare me and he doesn't have the talent Snyder had. KSU will be one of the worst teams in the Big XII this year.

@Colorado - Win
Hawkins is a good offensive coach, but it took him until a couple days ago to settle on a QB, and they have lost a lot of talent over the last few years and recruiting (even with the parties) hasn't been good.

@Texas - Loss
Can't spin this one, their defense is just too good. It will be in Austin and our players will likely be blinded by their new scoreboards screen.

Kansas - Win
They lost not only a lot of defensive players, but they lost the heart of the defense in Reid, too. Their offense isn't going to be ready for primetime this year, and we get them in our house. Even Steele beat Kansas in Waco.

Texas A&M - Win
New defensive scheme, poor defensive speed, and McGee ain't no Heisman contender. All the ledaership in the world isn't going to help him.

@Texas Tech - Loss
They've seen this offense every day in practice. We'll play them tough, but Lubbock is one of the toughest venues in the Big XII.

@Oklahoma State - Win
They are going to be young, but more importantly, they are going to be led by Bobby Reid, QB extraordinaire.

Oklahoma - Win
Stout defense, yes. But no QB and a weak OL means we have a shot. And in the best case scenario, that's all you need.

So 10-2 is the best case. Again, not a prediction, but basically those are the "winnable" games for the year.

I'm sure I'll get plenty of "you're crazy comments" for this one.

Also, I want to give credit to Smufootballblog.blogspot.com, 'cause I basically ripped this off his site. Now, you might be asking "How can you rip off a best case, worst case and realistic prediction? I'm not sure you can, but I got the idea to do it for my blog from his, and frankly, I started my blog after seeing his last year before the SMU/Baylor game, so I feel the need to attribute. Attribute complete.

Bum Phillips: "You've Got a Good Coach"

2006-08-25T14:28:00.000-05:00

Just read Jerry Hill's great blog on Baylor. He talked about Bum Phillips, the Houston Oilers winningest coach, visiting Baylor's practice yesterday to check out the job his grandson is doing as the Quarterbacks Coach for Baylor, and the job that Morriss is doing.

He later spoke at the Kickoff Luncheon. He's a quote from Hill's blog:

I always thought I should be in the business of hiring coaches. I don’t know whether you know it or not, but you’ve got a good coach right here.

Thanks, Bum! We happen to agree, but it's good to hear from you.

He also had a few other things to say about HOW Morriss and Co. coached the kids:

Watching Wednesday’s practice, Phillips was struck by the discipline of the players and the way the Baylor coaches ran the practice. “You don’t have to yell at ’em and embarrass ’em in front of everybody. Instead of always telling a guy what he did wrong, tell him how to do it the right way. That’s what Guy and his staff were doing.”

This might be the reason that Morriss and his staff have been able to do so much with what appears to be less talent than the teams around us. It is going to be nice when the players that they have recruited start filling into more of the starting spots and taking the team to another level.

Coach Phillips also noted something about the practice habits of the players:

The thing that seemed to impress Phillips the most was the focus of the players, even in 106-degree heat. “Even the guys on the sidelines were watching what was going on. If they can be that focused at a practice in that kind of heat, they’re going to be focused in the fourth quarter when the game’s on the line.”

It's this type of focus and determination that our team is going to need to get to a bowl game this year.

If you'd like to read Hill's blog entry, you can check it out here.

I Hope This Is Not Indicative of the Average TCU Fan

2006-08-25T10:19:00.000-05:00

Alright, a guy that posts comments on the blog goes by the screenname "matt", and left this jewel on his last comment:

While it is true that your baseball team is usually good, this year excluded, I'm not sure of your "dominance" in the 4x400 as I think you'll find a little school in Fort Worth came in 2nd (to LSU) in the 4x4 at this year's outdoor championships....

I almost forgot that TCU won the men's 400m relay in 1986, 87, 89, 91, 95, 98, and 2001. Baylor has never won it. Real dominant.

I never brought up the 400m relay, I'm not sure that Baylor even competes in that event. If you're talking 1600m relay then I'm not sure what hole you've been living in, but I thought I would take this opportunity to enlighten him on Baylor's track success over the last 25 years....

Men's Indoor Track National Champions

1985 - Willie Caldwell - 500m
1989 - Michael Johnson - 200m
1990 - Michael Johnson - 200m
1990 - 4x400m Relay
1991 - 4x400m Relay
1992 - Deon Minor - 400m
1992 - 4x400m Relay
1995 - Deon Minor - 400m
1998 - 4x400m Relay
2000 - Brandon Couts - 400m
2002 - 4x400m Relay
2004 - Jeremy Wariner - 400m
2004 - 4x400m Relay

Wow, that's pretty good, huh? Now you claim a 4x400m relay championship in a couple of those years that I have listed, too... Must be some mistake.

OH! Wait, those could be OUTDOOR championships... My bad. Here are Baylor's Men's Outdoor National Champions:

1985 - 4x400m Relay
1989 - Raymond Pierre - 400m
1990 - Michael Johnson - 200m
1990 - 4x400m Relay
1991 - 4x400m Relay
1995 - 4x400m Relay
1996 - 4x400m Relay
1999 - Bayano Kamani - 400m
2000 - 4x400m Relay
2001 - Bayano Kamani - 400m
2001 - 4x400m Relay
2004 - Jeremy Wariner - 400m
2004 - 4x400m Relay
2005 - Darold Williamson - 400m

You could also look at the 4x400m Relay teams and how there has only been ONE year since 1985 that Baylor's team wasn't All-American.

Or that since 1991, we've had 19 400m All-Americans. Only two years did we not have one, and in FIVE years we had TWO All-Americans.

Oh wait, silly me, that's just in the INDOOR...

In the OUTDOOR, we've had 21 All-Americans since 1985, and in four years we've had TWO All-Americans there, too.

Our outdoor 4x400 team has also had 27 All-American teams, including having EVERY SINGLE 4x400m Relay team be All-American since 1981.

I could go on to talk about how we've dominated the Big XII/SWC since the early 80's in conference championships or the Olympic Gold Medals won by Baylor scholarship athletes (that's plural for a reason!), or how a current Baylor track team member just took gold at the Junior World Championships with the US 4x400m Relay team, but I think this should be enough.

If you'd like to check out some more Baylor track history, feel free to spend some time here.

Seasons Predictions!

2006-08-24T15:59:00.000-05:00

I'd love to hear everyone's predictions on the upcoming Baylor season. Here's the schedule:

TCU
NWSU
@Washington State
Army
-------
Kansas State
@Colorado
@Texas
Kansas
Texas A&M
@Texas Tech
Oklahoma
@Oklahoma State

I'll have my final season prediction figured out by the end of the week.

Also, I'm going to try to have a set publishing schedule for the football season.

Sunday - Recap of the past weekends game (for TCU this will be on Monday)
I'll take a look back at the game and review what happened during the game, what helped us win or caused us to lose. Award Offensive and Defensive Players of the Game and Top 5 standout players.

Monday - Lessons we learned/Things to build on
Here I'll talk about what we need to improve on from the previous game/games in order to be more successful in the next week.

Tuesday - Next Weeks Opponents Preview Part One
I'll breakdown our opponent's offense against our defense in Part One of the Preview.

Wednesday - Guy Morriss Call-In Show Review
This might change if the Call-In show isn't on Tuesday Nights again, but it probably will be. I'll recap what was talked about and what I found especially interesting.

Thursday - Next Weeks Opponents Preview Part Two
In Part Two, I'll breakdown our opponent's defense against our offense.

Friday - An Opponents View
If I can find one willing, I'll have an opposing fan work up a rebuttal of sorts for my preview of their teams preview, pointing out any mistakes I've made, where my opinions might be shaded too heavily green/gold, and what their take on the game is.

Saturday -
Depends. If this is a home game, I won't be anywhere near a computer. If this is an away game, I'll likely find something interesting to post while I absorb the wonder that is College Football. Basically it'll be a crapshoot on Game Day.

2006-08-24T09:59:00.000-05:00

More Information about the New Offense

In the latest article from the Waco Tribune-Herald, Coach Hays talks about how the running backs will be used in the new offense. This particular quote caught my eye:

While the spread offense generally utilizes a one-back set, Hays said he’ll use a two-back set 10 to 50 percent of the time depending on how defenses line up against the Bears.

It'll be interesting in what games Hays would choose to go with a two-back set the majority of the time. I would think that we'll see that against TCU, because they have the two DEs that we need to be sure we keep contained. Keeping the backs in there to chip on the ends on their way out to the flats would be a great help in pass protection. Even if they give us an extra second or two, then that should be enough to get our receivers open against TCUs young corners.

Perhaps more interesting will be the teams we go with just a single back. I would predict that A&M would definitely be one of those teams. Their DEs aren't good at getting after the QB, and their secondary is very weak, so an extra receiver on the outside would take further advantage of that weakness. Also, they have a strong defensive line against the run, so spreading out the rest of the defense would help clear up the running lanes for both Whitaker and Mosley.

Hays again mentioned that Mosley and Whitaker would both have duties running the ball inside and out and in pass protection when they are the only back on the field. He had originally planned to have Mosley focus mainly on inside running and Whitaker on running to the outside, but they have proved that they can both handle any type of play.

I think it'd be silly to assume that Mosley will still see more inside running that sweeps and draws, but perhaps when he is on the field, the defense won't be able to pinch down and just clog the middle.

The spread offense itself should open the field up for Mosley and Whitaker. Anyone who saw Mosley's run against A&M last year knows he can move when he gets open. And he's got very good straight-line speed once he gets going. Whitaker has good speed, even from standing still. He's going to be so dangerous in this offense, as it will allow him to work in space.

10 days and counting. I can't wait!

2006-08-23T10:36:00.000-05:00

Merrill Back... Or is he?

Robert Merrill returned to the practice field after sitting out with a back injury. Here's a clip from the article:

It could be a long road to being ready for the season opener, though. Merrill, TCU's leading rusher the past three seasons, is behind with his conditioning and hasn't had much contact to test the injury.

So, basically, he has a week and a half to get used to the pounding and get his conditioning up. Right, so don't count on Merrill being much of a threat for the Baylor game. Check.

There's also this note in the article:

Lonta Hobbs, the Frogs' other senior running back, did not practice as a precaution with a minor ankle injury and is expected to return soon.

Hobbs is a talented runner and also a pretty tough guy. I don't expect this to have too much of an impact on his status for the Baylor game, but it's some to take note of.

Gary Patterson has closed practices until the Baylor game. I guess he's afraid that something really important is going to slip out about the offense and defense he's been running since he took over years ago. This made me think of something.

Ever since Guy Morriss talked about Patterson not being able to keep his mouth shut, Patterson has shut up. Now he's closed practice to outsiders. I have to believe that Patterson is scared to death of this matchup. He's doing everything he can to talk Baylor up to be a tough team in his latest interviews. He knows his corners are young and untested and that they are going to be thrown into the fire against All-Big XII caliber receivers in a pass heavy offense. He knows they are going to be on an island and giving up 4-5 inches of height and 20-40 pounds of weight.

He knows his offensive line is young, and getting younger with the injuries that have struck lately. With the possibility of starting two true freshmen, he knows that moving the ball is going to be much more difficult that the fans at TCU are willing to believe.

And that's just it. The TCU fans EXPECT to blow Baylor out. On one prediction thread on KillerFrogs.com, they had an average prediction of 30-17. On another it was 30-12. They are expecting to come down to Waco and dominate Baylor.

What if it doesn't happen?

Think about it. What if TCU starts the year 2-2 with losses to Baylor and Tech? What happens to the aura of TCU then? Where do their fans go then?

Patterson isn't talking, but he's thinking. Thinking about all the possibilities that can come from this game. More bad than good. TCU fans should start getting their excuses ready, too.

2006-08-22T14:43:00.000-05:00

Big TCU News!!

Don't try and find this on KillerFrogs, because they aren't allowing discussion on the topic, but Michael DePriest, starting WR and best returner for the Horned Frogs is injured and won't be playing against Baylor.

This is a break for Baylor, because DePriest was their most explosive playmaker, and if he came on strong for the game could have caused some problems.

Any Toads out there, feel free to comment.

2006-08-21T16:15:00.000-05:00

TOADKILLERS: PART TWO!!

Wow, just saw another post that I loved...

TCU had more sacks 41 than Baylor 21
TCU gave up less sacks 24 than Baylor 26
TCU had more TFL 100 than Baylor 70
TCU gave up less TFL 60 than Baylor 64
TCU had more fumble recoveries 14 than Baylor 13
TCU gave up less fumbles 8 than Baylor 12
TCU had more interceptions 26 than Baylor 16
TCU gave up less interceptions 11 than Baylor 12

It'd be easy to chalk this up to "competition level", wouldn't it? I'll try to stay away from that, but I do have a couple comments.

Sacks - Yes, TCU has better rush ends than Baylor does.

Sacks Given Up - 2 over 11 or 12 games.

TFLs - 30 TFL different. 20 of those are sacks that I've already addressed. Still, that's less than 3 per game

TFL Given Up - Difference of 4, did you really just list any stat that gave TCU ANY kind of edge?

Fumble Recoveries - I suppose so... 1 additional FR.

Fumbles Lost - Difference of 4 is actually a big stat. I'd be more worried if our RBs had even one of those fumbles. But neither of them fumbled in their more than 300 carries.

Passes Intercepted - 10 more interceptions. Very impressive. Seriously in case there are Toads out there that think I'm being sarcastic. Baylor only finished 4 spots behind TCU in Pass Efficiency Defense, so it's not like our secondary wasn't impressive in its own right (I'm trying very hard to stay away from the competition argument on this one).

Passes Had Intercepted - Back to the difference of 1...

If the person had really been trying to make a strong argument, just listing the sacks, interceptions and tackles for loss would have done it. The other stat categories just make the whole thing look likes he's reaching for ANYTHING that can prove TCU is better than Baylor.

Now, I know I promised, but really, does the guy who threw this up think that stats put up in the MWC are DIRECTLY-TRANSLATABLE to the Big XII? If he was talking SEC, Pac-10, ACC, Big 10(11), then he might have a point, but there is a definite difference between the BCS conferences and those that are not BCS.

There are TEAMS in the non-BCS conferences (like TCU) that rise above their brethren, but that doesn't mean that their stats can be translated to the BCS conferences at a 1:1 ratio.

Bottom Line: Frog fans, do you really think that TCU would have put up those EXACT stats in the Big XII if you had Baylor's place? If not, then what's the point of this argument? If so, what do you base that on? Simple questions.

2006-08-21T16:01:00.000-05:00

Welcome ToadKillers!!

I see you've found my humble blog. I hope you don't have a heart attack that someone believes that you're team is beatable.

On the thread discussing my blog, I found this charming post:

This idiot keeps on comparing stats for common opponents. But fails to show the whole truth.

TCU yards yielded vs BU yards yieled
OU- 225 vs 474
SMU 271 vs 276
Army 362 vs 284
ISU 288 vs 320

Now, these are my favorite types of posts - the kind that call someone an idiot for "failing to show the whole truth" and then throwing out stats of your own. Let's take those games one by one, shall we?

OU - 225 vs. 474

TCU played OU with Paul Thompson as QB in his first career start at QB. Needless to say, he turned in a poor performance. Additionally, TCU played only four quarters.

Baylor played OU to 2 OTs, accounting for 50 extra yards for OU. That drops the difference to 199 yards. We played with Rhett Bomar at QB, after he'd gone through the fire of playing Texas and had thrown for over 200 yards in two games.

Now I'm not pretending that this was a stellar defensive effort by the Bears, it was one of their two worst for the year, but let's make sure we're getting as close to apples-to-apples as possible, alright? On to the far more hilarious....

SMU - 271 vs 276

5 yards? We faced them in the first game of our season, and had our scrubs in the last two drives they went on. Oh, and we WON.

Army 362 vs 284

Ok, so ya'll allowed 78 more yards. At home. I'm not sure what your point was with that one...

ISU 288 vs 320

Alright, difference of 32 yards. We played them in Ames, Iowa while TCU played them in Texas. Hmm... This is another mystery. We beat them by 10 points, ya'll beat them by 3. Kinda scratching my head with this one.

Thanks for the entertaining interlude, though. I'm sure I'll enjoy more of these little chats in the next two weeks, then I can forget TCU exists until the next offseason.

2006-08-21T14:27:00.000-05:00

Is This News? - TCU to play a lot of different players on Defense....

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/colleges/15324060.htm

The defense has the most quality depth. Patterson said four linebackers, four cornerbacks, five defensive tackles, six defensive ends and 10 safeties will play against Baylor.

Wow... Tell me again how this is news? How is this special? Is the writer of this article under the impression that most teams ONLY play their starters?

FOUR CBs will play? FOUR!? Oh my gosh. That means Patterson will utilize his two deep. The same with linebacker. Two deep.

And with safety and defensive end, TCU will go 3 deep.

Is this a shock? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills, because I'm pretty sure Baylor is going to play at least 6 DEs, at least 6 DTs, at least 6 LBs, at least 5-6 CBs and at least 6 safeties. How is the sports news so slow in DFW that the fact that TCU uses their two-deep newsworthy?

No doubt there will be TCU fans (not our friend Michael, I think) that will cheer about this development, and call it the genius of Gary Patterson. "Man, doesn't that CGP know how to use personnel?"

Another thing likely to happen is that they will automatically assume that all 3 levels of their depth chart are equal. "There's no drop off from the starters to the 3rd string!"

Baylor has a pretty salty defense, but I can think of only the CB position that can go 3 deep without MUCH dropoff.

CJ Wilson, Anthony Arline, Braelon Davis, James Todd, Alton Widemon, and Josh Bell.

DE/DT/LB/S? No. Safety has a very stout 2-deep. DT has a stout 2-deep. But as far as going 3-deep without having question marks, nope. And I'm certain that there are question marks with some of TCUs first stringers without getting into their third string.

Crap. Look what I've done. I've taken a story that was about nothing, and turned it into a blog entry. Sorry for wasting your time.