Bayou Renaissance Man

Of whistleblowers and bullies

2013-06-18T23:06:00.000-05:00

In the light of the fuss and bother over the NSA eavesdropping scandal, and the role of whistleblower Edward Snowden in its exposure, I found it instructive to read about the experience of State Department whistleblower Aurelia Fedenisn. Here's an excerpt.

Fedenisn's life changed dramatically last Monday after she handed over documents and statements to CBS News alleging that senior State Department officials "influenced, manipulated, or simply called off" several investigations into misconduct. The suppression of investigations was noted in an early draft of an Inspector General report, but softened in the final version.

. . .

After the CBS News made inquiries to the State Department about the charges, Schulman says investigators from the State Department's Inspector General promptly arrived at Fedenisn's door. "They talked to both kids and never identified themselves," he said. "First the older brother and then younger daughter, a minor, asking for their mom's place of work and cell phone number ... They camped out for four to five hours."

Schulman says the purpose of the visit was to get Fedenisn to sign a document admitting that she stole State Department materials, such as the memos leaked to CBS. Schulman says it was crucial that she didn't sign the document because her separation agreement with the State Department includes a provision allowing disclosures of misconduct. Furthermore, none of the materials were classified.

There's more at the link. Bold underlined text is my emphasis.

Here's the bottom line. If any individual or organization makes threats and tries heavy-handed intimidation instead of handing over the entire affair to law enforcement right from the start, they know their case is weak and/or unsustainable. They're trying to achieve by intimidation what they think they won't be able to achieve by due process of law. Therefore . . . tell 'em to take a running poke at a rolling donut.

Peter

Endearing images

2013-06-18T22:55:00.000-05:00

Oleg sent me a link to a series of photographs of a Japanese grandmother, Misao, and her adopted cat, Fukumaru. They're part of a series (recently published in book form) by her granddaughter Miyoko Ihara. I found them both cute and charming. Here are a few examples, reduced in size to fit this blog

There are more (and larger) images at the link, and many more in the book. Endearing viewing. I think I'm going to have to add that book to my library.

Peter

Rube Goldberg meets the pinball machine!

2013-06-18T12:27:00.000-05:00

I've never played with K'nex construction toys - they came on the market long after my youth - but I'm astonished to find this fully operational pinball machine constructed entirely of the little connectors.

Apparently it took almost four months to build. Talk about dedication! I think Rube Goldberg would have been proud of the builders. All it needs is a bit of brass and steam, and it'd be steampunk!

Peter

Book plans - an update

2013-06-18T12:06:00.000-05:00

As most of you probably know, I've been working on a print edition of 'Take The Star Road'. It was delayed for a few days by computer problems, but I hope to receive the proof copy of the book from CreateSpace by the end of this week. If it's acceptable, it'll be released for sale next week.

Book 2 of the Maxwell Saga, 'Ride The Rising Tide', is still on track for release in mid-July. The print edition may be delayed a week or two, but the e-book should be out on July 15th. I hope to release both of them simultaneously, if I can get all my ducks in a row by then. Unfortunately, when one's doing everything oneself - writing, editing, changing, formatting, cover image selection, working with Oleg to finalize the cover, go through Amazon's Kindle and CreateSpace procedures to upload everything and prepare the final editions, and all that - it's pretty time-consuming. I'll do my best.

Probably in mid-September, I'll be releasing a non-fiction book about my experience of prison chaplaincy. I wrote it some years ago, and left it on the back burner until I felt confident enough in my writing to upgrade it and release it for publication. The time has now come, I think, so I'm busy revising it. Very few people today understand what really goes on behind the walls of a high-security penitentiary. They get their information from Hollywood (The Longest Yard, The Shawshank Redemption, The Green Mile) or television (Oz, Prison Break), none of which are particularly authentic or realistic. I think there's room for an accurate, unvarnished, factual presentation of life behind bars, and what it means to try to help those who find themselves incarcerated there. I'm going to do my best to provide it.

While all these other projects are on the go, I'm trying to devote time to Book 3 of the Maxwell Saga, which is so far unnamed. I hope to have it ready for publication by November 15th, but that may slip into early December, with everything else I've got on my plate.

So, if all goes well and I don't collapse, by Christmas I hope to have three novels and a non-fiction memoir available for sale. I hope you enjoy them!

Peter

Watch China's economy very carefully

2013-06-17T23:52:00.002-05:00

In recent days I've highlighted warning signs coming from Japan and Europe. It looks like they're present in China as well. The Telegraph reports:

China's shadow banking system is out of control and under mounting stress as borrowers struggle to roll over short-term debts, Fitch Ratings has warned.

The agency said the scale of credit was so extreme that the country would find it very hard to grow its way out of the excesses as in past episodes, implying tougher times ahead.

"The credit-driven growth model is clearly falling apart. This could feed into a massive over-capacity problem, and potentially into a Japanese-style deflation," said Charlene Chu, the agency's senior director in Beijing.

"There is no transparency in the shadow banking system, and systemic risk is rising. We have no idea who the borrowers are, who the lenders are, and what the quality of assets is, and this undermines signalling," she told The Daily Telegraph.

While the non-performing loan rate of the banks may look benign at just 1pc, this has become irrelevant as trusts, wealth-management funds, offshore vehicles and other forms of irregular lending make up over half of all new credit. "It means nothing if you can off-load any bad asset you want. A lot of the banking exposure to property is not booked as property," she said.

. . .

Fitch warned that wealth products worth $2 trillion of lending are in reality a "hidden second balance sheet" for banks, allowing them to circumvent loan curbs and dodge efforts by regulators to halt the excesses.

This niche is the epicentre of risk.

. . .

Overall credit has jumped from $9 trillion to $23 trillion since the Lehman crisis. "They have replicated the entire US commercial banking system in five years," she said.

The ratio of credit to GDP has jumped by 75 percentage points to 200pc of GDP, compared to roughly 40 points in the US over five years leading up to the subprime bubble, or in Japan before the Nikkei bubble burst in 1990. "This is beyond anything we have ever seen before in a large economy. We don't know how this will play out. The next six months will be crucial," she said.

. . .

Wei Yao from Societe Generale says the debt service ratio of Chinese companies has reached 30pc of GDP – the typical threshold for financial crises -- and many will not be able to pay interest or repay principal. She warned that the country could be on the verge of a "Minsky Moment", when the debt pyramid collapses under its own weight.

There's more at the link. Bold, underlined text is my emphasis.

That's precisely the problem. In Japan, China and Europe - and, as we saw last week, here in the USA as well - we're dealing with numbers the like of which have never before been seen in human history. The headline to that Telegraph article claimed that China's indebtedness was 'unprecedented in modern world history'. It sure is! Global indebtedness and worldwide financial shell games are so over-extended that no-one knows for sure what's going to happen next. However, I'd hazard a guess that when the financial pigeons come home to roost, we're all going to find out . . . and it's looking more and more likely that they're on their way right now, or will be very soon.

Peter

Mad dogs and Englishmen - with pulse jets!

2013-06-17T13:44:00.001-05:00

I'm sure many readers have read about the German V-1 flying bomb, the so-called 'doodle-bug' pilotless bomb of World War II.

It was powered by a pulse jet engine, with its distinctive on-off pulsation sound. It was so successful that the USA copied it, producing the JB-2 Loon. (You can see a 1945 film report about the latter here.)

Now an English inventor has built a pulse jet engine from scratch, and tested it in various ways - including powering a bicycle! I wasn't sure whether to title this post as I did, or make it one of my 'Doofus Of The Day' series due to his suicidal courage in actually riding the thing! Decide for yourself. Here are four videos, covering respectively the making of, initial testing of, further testing of, and bicycle version of the pulse jet.

The inventor, Colin Furze, has his own Web site where you can read more about his projects. "Mad dogs and Englishmen", indeed!

Peter

A searing indictment of economists

2013-06-17T02:27:00.000-05:00

In his latest newsletter, John Mauldin pulls no punches about economists and their failures. Here are a few excerpts.

If you've suspected all along that economists are useless at the job of forecasting, you would be right. Dozens of studies show that economists are completely incapable of forecasting recessions. But forget forecasting. What's worse is that they fail miserably even at understanding where the economy is today. In one of the broadest studies of whether economists can predict recessions and financial crises, Prakash Loungani of the International Monetary Fund wrote very starkly, "The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished." He found this to be true not only for official organizations like the IMF, the World Bank, and government agencies but for private forecasters as well. They're all terrible. Loungani concluded that the "inability to predict recessions is a ubiquitous feature of growth forecasts." Most economists were not even able to recognize recessions once they had already started.

In plain English, economists don't have a clue about the future.

If you think the Fed or government agencies know what is going on with the economy, you're mistaken. Government economists are about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Their mistakes and failures are so spectacular you couldn't make them up if you tried. Yet now, in a post-crisis world, we trust the same people to know where the economy is, where it is going, and how to manage monetary policy.

Central banks say they will know the right time to end the current policies of quantitative easing and financial repression and when to shrink the bloated monetary base. However, given their record at forecasting, how will they know? The Federal Reserve not only failed to predict the recessions of 1990, 2001, and 2007, it also didn't even recognize them after they had already begun. Financial crises frequently happen because central banks cut interest rates too late and hike rates too soon.

Trusting central bankers now is a big bet that (1) they'll know what to do, (2) they'll know when to do it. Sadly, given the track record, that is not a good wager. Unfortunately, the problem is not that economists are simply bad at what they do; it's that they're really, really bad.

. . .

Why do people listen to economists anymore? Scott Armstrong, an expert on forecasting at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, has developed a "seer-sucker" theory: "No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers." Even if experts fail repeatedly in their predictions, most people prefer to have seers, prophets, and gurus tell them something – anything at all – about the future.

There's more at the link. (Click the 'Download' button to read the entire article in Adobe Acrobat - i.e. .PDF - format.)

I regard economists in the same light as I do climate change alarmists. Both disciplines work with models that attempt to predict developments in their respective field. Unfortunately, in both cases, their models usually can't even duplicate past observations correctly, where outcomes have been measured and are known with certainty. If they can't reproduce the past accurately, why should we believe the models' predictions about the future?

The only economists and financial commentators I trust are those who have, in the past, correctly - and preferably repeatedly - forecast economic developments that have, in fact, occurred. That's a fairly short list. They may be wrong in future, but at least their track record suggests they're likely to be less wrong than others in their profession!

Peter

Some amazing maneuvers

2013-06-16T23:34:00.000-05:00

The video clip below shows one of the Russian Sukhoi PAK-FA stealth fighter prototypes executing some pretty amazing maneuvers during testing. We don't have details of the relative speed and direction of the PAK-FA and the chase aircraft from which the maneuvers were filmed, but even without that background information, the sequence is pretty impressive.

According to Flight Global's DEW Line blog, the Russian commentary appears to suggest that the flight control systems are automated to the point they can land the aircraft safely if the pilot becomes disabled. If so, that'll be an aviation 'first', as far as I'm aware. If any readers are fluent in Russian, would you please let us know in Comments whether the announcer or newsreader makes that claim, and if possible provide more details?

Peter

Safely home

2013-06-16T23:22:00.000-05:00

Miss D. and I got home late this afternoon, safe and happy after a relaxing couple of days with friends up north. Both of us feel much better for it! We'll have to do it again soon.

Thanks to all of you for your patience while we were gone. Normal blog service will resume now.

Peter

Friends, food and fires

2013-06-16T07:05:00.001-05:00

Miss D. and I are having a very pleasant and relaxing break in Brigid's company. We went out yesterday morning to do a little shopping, visiting a dairy farm and creamery (yes, we loaded up with good things to take home with us), then went on to a brew pub for a delicious lunch. On the way home we noticed a plume of heavy black smoke in the sky, which turned out to be one of the nastier fires of recent years.

Later that afternoon we met up with Tam and Bobby at another brew pub, then came home to a tasty Brigid-cooked supper. Later in the evening Zercool showed up (with dog) on his way from New York state to Missouri, where he and his wife will be settling. It was great to meet him in the flesh after several years of corresponding online. (Barkley was delighted to meet his dog, as well!)

This morning we'll have a leisurely breakfast, then raid a local bookstore before packing up and heading homewards. It's been an all-too-brief break, but a very welcome one. I'll try to put up another blog post tonight, once we're home. Keep us in your prayers for traveling mercies.

Peter

Old memories revived

2013-06-16T06:56:00.000-05:00

An article in the Telegraph discusses the ongoing grinding poverty in Alexandra township, part of the Johannesburg metropolitan area in Gauteng province, South Africa. Here's an excerpt.

Electricity has arrived in the corner of Alexandra township where Nelson Mandela came to live in 1941 - but that is the one and only physical improvement of the last 72 years.

The tiny redbrick house, which served as Mr Mandela's first home in Johannesburg, stands locked and empty, but otherwise unchanged since he rented its single room as a penniless 23-year-old.

All around the former president's old front door live ordinary South Africans who would have been his neighbours in that era. "Alexandra occupies a treasured place in my heart," he wrote in his memoirs. "Its atmosphere was alive, its spirit adventurous, its people resourceful."

Mr Mandela now lies in intensive care in a hospital 30 miles away. He rose from Alexandra to the presidency of South Africa, but the resourceful people he left behind still endure much the same privation and squalor.

They cheered Mr Mandela's release from prison in 1990, voted for him in the first free election four years later and celebrated his accession to power. Today, they will pray for his recovery as he endures his eighth day in hospital as a stricken 94-year-old.

Yet as Mr Mandela's life reaches the final pages of its last chapter, they also point out that Alexandra is just as troubled and as poverty-stricken as when he lived here.

At that time, Alexandra had no electricity and its squalid streets were popularly known as "Dark City". Today, the lights are on – but that change began under the apartheid regime in the 1980s.

Since Mr Mandela led the African National Congress (ANC) to power in 1994, there has, quite simply, been no improvement whatever in physical living conditions in the area near his old home.

There's more at the link. You can read an extensive and very interesting article about Alexandra's history here. I recommend it.

I entered Alexandra more than once during the 1980's, when ethnic, tribal and interracial violence was endemic in South Africa (enduring from the 1976 Soweto riots until the end of apartheid with advent of democratic rule in 1994). It was the scene of some appallingly violent encounters between Government forces and resistance groups, and between different Black organizations competing for power and influence. Add to that one of the most flourishing criminal environments in the whole country, and you had a recipe for urban disaster. That's precisely what it produced during those evil years.

I recall one incident in particular. A particularly nasty and vicious criminal had been shot and wounded by police, and was taken to the Alexandra Clinic for treatment. (It's a well-known private charity institution that continues its work to this day.) This man was notorious for having very seldom been convicted of his crimes, because witnesses mysteriously vanished or 'lost their memory' when the time came to testify in court. Those (few) who gave evidence often ended up dead, or 'disappeared', which 'reminded others to forget' when necessary.

A policeman of my acquaintance knew that this criminal would probably get off scot-free, yet again, on the charges facing him. He was determined not to let that happen; so he went to see one of the senior nurses at the clinic, a Black lady from a tribe that was notoriously prone to violence. He informed her simply, "Nurse, the man who raped your daughter three years ago is in bed number so-and-so. We'll be along to arrest him in the morning."

When the police arrived the following morning, what they arrested might, charitably, have been described as human . . . but it was no longer capable of rape, or any other crime, or even of a pain-free thought. It was an object lesson in the simple, brutal tribal justice of Africa. Evil, you say? Uncivilized? Illegal? Yes to all . . . but the same 'remedy' to extreme crime continues to this day in many parts of Africa. That's just the way it is. Life is cheap there, and 'civilized' standards are somewhat less than skin-deep. (I'm not all that sure about those standards in the First World, come to think of it!)

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #708

2013-06-15T04:29:00.001-05:00

Today's award goes to the official censors in China. The Telegraph reports:

Following the recent California summit between Barack Obama and Chinese president Xi Jinping, Chinese micro-bloggers picked up on an uncanny resemblance between a photograph of the two presidents strolling through the Sunnylands estate and a cartoon image of A. A. Milne’s cartoon creations.

The two images were published side by side this week on the Twitter-like Chinese social media site Weibo.

But the posts were almost immediately “harmonized”, as censors appeared to take exception to the comparison between their president and a podgy bear who once roamed Sussex’s Ashdown Forest.

Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post said over-zealous censors had “nipped in the bud what could have been a positive PR campaign tailor-made for President Xi Jinping.”

Earlier this month, authorities targeted a photo-shopped image ... of the famous Tiananmen Square photograph in which a lone protester faces down a line of tanks.

The image - in which the tanks were replaced with giant rubber ducks - irritated authorities enough that not only did they remove the picture itself, they also blocked all internet searches related to the squeaky bath toys.

There's more at the link.

When Big Brother proves to have no sense of humor at all, he makes himself into a figure of fun without needing anyone else's help!

Peter

Arrived safely

2013-06-15T03:40:00.001-05:00

Made it safely through the traffic to Brigid's place. Miss D. and I detoured to the meadery on the way here, and arrived with eight growlers of mead in four different flavors, which was (as always) well received. I can see we'll have to stock up again on our way home! They have a new 'seasonal special' mead made with strawberries and rhubarb . . . ambrosial!

Brigid ~~tempted~~ ~~enticed~~ forced us to partake of a delicious Thai meal for supper last night, and we came home via her favorite frozen yoghurt store, so to say we went to bed overstuffed is something of an understatement! Barkley had his own carton of sugar-free yoghurt to keep him happy . . . strange, I've never seen a dog not only lick the container clean, but then try to eat it as well! Clearly, frozen yoghurt and enthusiastic Labrador retrievers were made for each other.

As always, my fused spine has woken me after only a few hours of sleep, so I've made a cup of tea and I'm writing this to give y'all something to read. I'll try to put up another post or two, then see about another hour or two of sleep before the others wake up.

Peter

He needs to buy a lottery ticket - NOW!

2013-06-14T08:21:00.002-05:00

I'm amazed at the reported survival of a Nigerian cook for two days underwater after his ship sank. Via Yahoo! News, Reuters reports:

After two days trapped in freezing cold water and breathing from an air bubble in an upturned tugboat under the ocean, Harrison Okene was sure he was going to die. Then a torch light pierced the darkness.

Ship's cook Okene, 29, was on board the Jascon-4 tugboat when it capsized on May 26 due to heavy Atlantic ocean swells around 30 km (20 miles) off the coast of Nigeria, while stabilizing an oil tanker filling up at a Chevron platform.

Of the 12 people on board, divers recovered 10 dead bodies while a remaining crew member has not been found.

Somehow Okene survived, breathing inside a four foot high bubble of air as it shrunk in the waters slowly rising from the ceiling of the tiny toilet and adjoining bedroom where he sought refuge, until two South African divers eventually rescued him.

. . .

Divers broke into the ship and Okene saw light from a head torch of someone swimming along the passageway past the room.

"I went into the water and tapped him. I was waving my hands and he was shocked," Okene said, his relief still visible.

There's more at the link. That man's the living definition of 'lucky'!

I can't help but grin at the thought of the shock the diver must have experienced when someone touched him in the blackness of the wreck. Two days after the sinking, he must surely have assumed that everyone still aboard was dead. Could that be described as a 'brown-wetsuit' moment?

Peter

On the road again

2013-06-13T22:51:00.003-05:00

I've been getting very tired lately. Getting my first novel out the door, and frantically rushing to complete the final edit on the second (due out in about five weeks), have seriously exhausted me. I've found myself perilously close to burnout this week; so I'm going to do something about it.

Miss D. and I are heading out tomorrow morning, en route to spend a couple of days with Brigid, Barkley and sundry other friends. Good food awaits, as does our regular visit to the local meadery - always a highlight of our visits.

Blogging will be light for the next few days, but I'll try to put something up at least once per day. Say a prayer for us for traveling mercies, and for a safe journey. I'll be back at work next week, hopefully with my batteries recharged!

Peter

Individual responsibility versus statism

2013-06-13T22:25:00.000-05:00

A perfect example of how statists clash with those who believe in individual responsibility is playing out over a recent newspaper column by Bill Cosby. He's been speaking out for many years about the lack of individual and parental responsibility in the black community, most famously in his 'Pound Cake speech' to the NAACP in 2004. Here are some excerpts from that occasion.

His latest article is titled 'A Plague Called Apathy'.

I’ve said it 100 times, the revolution is in the house. Now if you don’t want to be a part of the revolution, you say to the school system, “I want you to raise my child.” No, the revolution is at home.

Earl Lloyd, the first black NBA basketball player, tells a wonderful story of coming home and his mother said, “Where have you been?” He said, “I was out.” “No, no,” she said, “where have been?” He said, “Momma I was just . . .” She said, I asked you a question; he said, I was on the court. She said, I told you not to be out there with those boys. He said, I wasn’t doing anything.

And she said, “Look, when you’re not in the picture, you can’t be framed.”

Now, that’s the kind of stuff parents need to be doing. Stay away from the guys on the corner fighting to be nothing. The revolution is in the home.

It even happens with celebrities. People knew what Michael Jackson was doing, people knew what Whitney Houston was doing, and then they became addicts.

Michael should have been kept in rehab. Where was the family? Why weren’t they making sure Whitney and Michael got help? Michael, well, why is it that his family stood by and allowed him to have a Dr. Feelgood when they knew Michael had sleep, drug and other problems? Why didn’t Whitney’s family take the crack pipe away from her?

There's more at the link.

In response, Marc W. Polite has written an article on Time magazine's Web site. He claims that "Bill Cosby's 'Tough Love' Is Counterproductive".

“Personal responsibility” is a theme frequently drawn upon by people addressing the social problems of the day, including problems that black communities face. Public figures issuing calls to action often challenge the role of the individual, although whether it works in better reaching the individuals who need to hear these messages is debatable. The bigger problem is that a message that exclusively focuses on personal responsibility without an accompanying clarion call for society itself to improve gives us only half of the answer.

. . .

There are a great deal of problems in black America and our American society in general. But if Cosby is really interested in combating apathy, it’s important for him to realize that there are larger, outside forces that can cause a sense of hopelessness in affected areas. Without a total picture of what certain communities have to contend with, Cosby’s supposedly well-meaning advice is not just tone-deaf but useless as well.

Again, more at the link.

Mr. Polite's problem is that he can't see the trees for the forest. He sees the 'big picture' in terms of society, group, race, whatever - but he completely ignores the fact that those larger conglomerations are made up of individuals. A brick wall is built of many hundreds, or thousands, or tens of thousands, of individual bricks. Each has to contribute its own strength to the wall, and the mortar that binds them together has to play its part as well. Only if all the components are sound will the wall itself be sound. To the extent that its components are less than sound, the wall will be less strong and less well suited to its purpose.

Those who adopt a statist viewpoint - that it's government's job to cater to the needs of individuals, and groups, and 'society' as a whole - ignore this reality. Dr. Cosby doesn't. He sees that a society is built up of individuals, and if care is taken over and attention is paid to the raising and education and formation of those individuals, the society that they form will be sound. Ignore those steps, and inevitably the society they form will be as shallow, disheveled, decaying and meaningless as they are as individuals. (Detroit is a living example.)

This, too, is where Hillary Clinton went wrong with her argument that 'It Takes A Village' to raise a child. It does, indeed, take a village - a village of strong, principled, reliable individuals, each of whom can be relied upon to bring their part in the joint enterprise. No-one needs to check up on them or supervise them - they're trustworthy people. Without such constituents, the village will soon become nothing more than a useless agglomeration of demanding, whining, petulant self-seekers. (Again, see Detroit.)

That's the way it is. Statists have helped to ensure that it stays that way through their misguided emphasis on the group, rather than the individual. Unless and until that changes, we're going to be stuck with the problem - and we're going to need more Dr. Cosby's to keep on pointing that out to us, in no uncertain terms.

Peter

Now those are scary numbers!

2013-06-13T21:53:00.002-05:00

Writing in National Review, Jonathan Strong points out that the entitlement spending deficit is far, far larger than has previously been acknowledged.

... the true size of the problem is staggering, and surprised even many of the seasoned budget negotiators involved.

... Try $106 trillion, the medium estimate. That’s $106,954,000,000,000. Even the lowest, extremely conservative estimate comes in at $72 trillion; the highest is over $120 trillion.

The amounts are so large that some controversial reforms appear inconsequential in comparison. Take Obama’s “chained CPI” proposal: it would save an estimated $89 billion over ten years, or 1.3 percent of the total deficit over those same ten years.

Part of the difference is time. The Congressional Budget Office pegs its cost estimates of bills to ten years. Not only has that led to a sort of CBO-score arms race on Capitol Hill, where legislation — Obamacare being the best example — is designed to exploit the ten-year window to produce a lower cost estimate. It also obscures the scope of the long-term entitlement crisis and the savings of reforms that would compound in the second and third decade.

The Senate GOP projection is for 30 years, which encompasses the retirement of the baby boomers — a far more significant problem than the deficits of the past few years.

“In all of these budget negotiations, we’re really trapped by this ten-year budget window, which, truthfully, minimizes the problem,” Johnson observes.

Another difference is the assumptions behind the projection. CBO’s long-term budget outlook, for example, offers two estimates: the “baseline” scenario and “alternative fiscal scenario.”

Baseline is according to current law, including all of the gimmicks Congress has put in current law to game their CBO scores. According to that, we’re totally fine — the debt will slowly go down without Congress’s having to do anything. It’s also fantasy.

The other scenario is more realistic. In it, debt begins to really ramp up around 2025, and quickly becomes unwieldy — even insurmountable — by 2040, when the graph ends.

There's more at the link. Bold underlined text is my emphasis.

Those are absolutely staggering numbers. Even if the true figure is only half of the minimum estimate above, that's still $36 trillion - a sum so vast as to be incomprehensible. Forget partisan politics. Ignore the fact that different parties produce different figures. The reality is equally bad, no matter what the source of the bad news.

There's an old saying that tells us "What can't be done, won't be done". We cannot - I repeat, cannot - afford to pay such sums. The money simply isn't there. The only way in which it will ever be there is if our currency is deliberately and cynically inflated to such an extent that we pay those promised benefits with dollars worth a tenth, or less than a tenth, of what they were when the promises were made. If you're trusting the promises of politicians about your future Medicare and Social Security benefits, I have news for you. You've been had. They saw you coming, and played you for a sucker.

At this rate, I don't see myself retiring at all! Better get back to writing more books . . .

Peter

WARNING - latest Windows update may cause problems

2013-06-12T22:17:00.001-05:00

Obviously, one swallow doesn't make a summer, and one user's experience doesn't indicate a trend: but I installed the latest Windows updates this evening, and my computer went bonkers! Ultra-slow, buggy, stumbling . . . very bad news. I tried three or four fixes before giving up and restoring to a pre-update version of the operating system. I'm currently running Spybot, Ad-Aware and a few other utilities to make sure I didn't pick up anything nasty from somewhere else, but they're clean so far.

Just a word of caution to those of you who haven't yet installed the latest Windows updates; they may cause problems. Make sure you create a system restore point before you update!

I won't put more blog posts up tonight, until the update/re-update/system-check process is complete. Check back for more tomorrow morning.

Peter

Talk about a headbanger . . .

2013-06-12T11:07:00.000-05:00

I remember reading about a heavy landing by an ANA Boeing 767 in Japan last year, but I hadn't seen images of it until I came across this video clip this morning.

Just looking at that creased fuselage makes my head hurt! I'm very glad I wasn't on board at the time . . .

I was surprised to hear that the aircraft has since been repaired, and returned to service in late December last year. I'd love to know how much work went into fixing it! I suspect the front fuselage would have had to be virtually rebuilt from scratch.

Peter

The 'Intelligence-Industrial Complex'

2013-06-12T07:40:00.000-05:00

President Eisenhower famously warned about the 'military-industrial complex' in his farewell address in January 1961. Now, in the light of the NSA scandal, Time magazine adapts that label to what it calls the 'intelligence-industrial complex'.

The Edward Snowden-National Security Agency leak case raises anew the balance between means and ends that has been simmering on the back burner of the nation’s consciousness for a decade or so.

The terror attacks of 9/11 generated a predictable push to do everything to ensure such a thing would not happen again. When that’s the government’s mission, there can be only one outcome: cash, and lots of it.

It’s something tangible that the nation’s leaders can point to – “Look – we’ve created a Department of Homeland Security!” Perhaps some of it was even necessary.

. . .

The nation’s over-reaction to 9/11 has led to the widespread surveillance to which Snowden, and a fair share of Americans, object. That’s fine: let them work through the political system to change it.

But make no mistake: there will be a lot of opposition to paring back the post-9/11 security state not because of the threat, but because of the billions of dollars pouring into the intelligence-industrial complex every year.

There's more at the link.

This is a very real problem. For over a decade we've poured money into the intelligence establishment on the principle that 'we've got to do something to prevent another 9/11!'. Today it's burgeoned beyond all recognition. It's become a self-sustaining machine, bloated, unmanageable.

Unfortunately, the simple truth is that the government and its organs and agencies can't protect us 24/7/365 against all hazards. A terrorist will always find ways to sneak through our defenses, no matter how elaborate or sophisticated they may be. Consider, for example:

The Sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway in 1995;
The London bombings of 2005;
The Boston Marathon bombings of 2013;
The murder of a British soldier in May 2013.

All these incidents took place in heavily patrolled cities, the latter three after 9/11 heightened security awareness all over the world. Security organs, authorities and sources could not prevent any of them. They will not be able to prevent all future attacks.

We need to trim back the 'security-industrial complex' to where it can be managed, and where its operations don't spread their tentacles into every aspect of our lives: but to do so, we'll have to accept the fact that government can't always protect us. The complex, on the other hand, will scream to the heavens that any cuts in its funding will expose us to precisely that risk - notwithstanding the fact that we aren't safe even with that level of expenditure.

Peter

Doofus Of The Day #707

2013-06-11T20:54:00.000-05:00

Didn't anyone tell this guy that when ships are launched, waves usually result?

(No, he wasn't hurt - but someone nearby broke his leg in the rush to get out of the way.)

Peter

Wow!

2013-06-11T11:44:00.000-05:00

NASA has released new video footage of 'sun tornadoes', vortices of plasma moving across the surface of the sun. It's hard to imagine these things are millions of miles tall!

Last year more footage of this phenomenon was released, including this 'close-up' of a plasma tornado.

That storm, on September 25th, 2011, was said to be 'as wide as five Earths'!

I'm irresistibly reminded of Psalm 8:3-4 . . .

Peter

My second book is almost ready!

2013-06-10T23:28:00.000-05:00

I've been hard at work on getting the print edition of 'Take The Star Road' ready to roll. It should be available late next week, pending the arrival of a test copy to check formatting, etc. I'm very pleased to report that sales of the e-book edition have already exceeded 2,000 copies - far better than I'd hoped to accomplish after less than a month on sale. Thank you all very much for your support!

I'm also finalizing the manuscript of the second novel in the Maxwell Saga, which will be titled 'Ride The Rising Tide'. Miss D. has been helping me do final revisions (she's becoming an excellent alpha reader and story critic), and I'm incorporating 'lessons learned' from reader feedback about the first book. (I really do value your reviews, you know - if you identify something that needs improvement, it allows me to implement that in subsequent books, while your words of encouragement keep me hard at work on the sequels. Sincere thanks to everyone who's left a review at Amazon, or here on the blog!).

I've been working on the cover for the second novel with Oleg Volk. He's a genius at this sort of thing. I sit in awe as I watch him, with a few mouse clicks and keystrokes, accomplish tweaks and fine-tuning that I'd never even have thought of! That sort of professional assistance is absolutely invaluable. I think he should do more book covers - he seems to have a gift for it. Here's a preliminary draft of the cover for 'Ride The Rising Tide', to whet your appetite.

The white bars at the bottom are where I hope a few words from another author will appear, just as they did on Book 1, where novelist Sarah A. Hoyt was kind enough to endorse my work. Look for e-book and print editions by mid-July!

Peter

Just because it's "legal' doesn't mean it's right!

2013-06-10T23:05:00.000-05:00

I note that several commentators and apologists for the NSA's spying on the electonic communications of US citizens and residents are claiming that it was legal, authorized by the Patriot Act and/or other legislation.

This is spurious.

For something to be 'legal' merely means that a law has been passed designating it as such. Congress could pass a law tomorrow declaring that we have too many elderly people, and therefore anyone who's turned 70 must turn themselves in for euthanasia. That law would make their killing 'legal' - but not moral, or ethical, or right, under any system of ethics or morals of which I'm aware.

The point at issue in the NSA spying scandal is not whether or not it was legal. It's whether or not it was right. I state, flatly and without reservation, that it was wrong - that it was in violation of both the letter and the spirit of the US constitution. I don't give a damn whether or not hair-splitters agree with me on that point. If I found someone trying to aggregate information about the contents of my mailbox by inspecting every item as it was delivered, I'd stop him by any means necessary, because he's invading my privacy. I don't need a law to define that, nor do I care whether he - or those who sent him - define privacy differently to me. I know what privacy means to me, and what it meant to our Founding Fathers. Can you imagine what Washington, or Jefferson, or Jackson would have done if they'd found their personal, private communications being monitored like this? That says it all, right there.

To maintain that such overreach is 'necessary' is to ignore the basic element in this whole affair. Necessity doesn't define morality. Is it right or wrong? By any civilized standard of which I'm aware - and that doesn't include the tortuous machinations and confabulations of politicians and bureaucrats - it's wrong. Period. End of discussion.

Peter

The latest on the F-35 boondoggle

2013-06-10T22:52:00.002-05:00

I've written several times before about the monumental boondoggle that the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II strike aircraft has become. Things show no sign of improvement.

The latest summary of this colossal white elephant comes in a five-part series from Winslow Wheeler in Time magazine:

They're all very interesting and worth reading, but the crunch comes in the final article. Here's an excerpt.

The breakdown of each year’s procurement spending and authorized production yields an annual F-35 unit production cost. For 2014, F-35As will cost $188.5 million each; F-35Bs and Cs will average $277.9 million each, and all F-35s will cost, on average, $219.3 million.

Claims by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Air Force Lieut. General Christopher Bogdan, the F-35 program chief, that the F-35’s per-plane cost is “coming down” and “continues to come down,” respectively, are not accurate.

. . .

The history of combat-aircraft acquisition warns us that F-35 unit costs will be much higher than are currently projected by the Pentagon and Lockheed-Martin, and will remain well above what can be characterized as affordable.

The data reported to the public and Congress on F-35 costs and production, from the Defense Department’s comptroller, do not conform to the data in other Pentagon reports. Even the number of F-35 units authorized to be produced, and the number to be delivered, are in dispute.

Without a complete and independent audit of the F-35 program, including any costs that may not now be a formal part of the program as reported in Selected Acquisition Reports, it is impossible to discern which F-35 cost reports, if any, are accurate, and precisely what F-35 costs are today and will be in the future.

. . .

American taxpayers, the U.S. military services, and foreign purchasers — all of whom have been promised F-35 aircraft for as little as $85 million each — are in for a rude awakening. When real F-35 purchase prices unfold in the future, they may be as much as they are today—averaging more than $200 million per aircraft.

It remains inevitable that as actual costs sink in, fewer aircraft will be purchased.

This toxic stew of the F-35’s high cost, abetted by concurrent production, lagging performance and continuing design problems, has put U.S. and allied air power into a dive.

The dive will steepen so long as F-35 production at the currently-projected rates continues.

There's more at the link.

To add insult to injury, David Axe details the size and extent of Lockheed Martin's publicity machine, which constantly seeks to put a positive 'spin' on the F-35 program and keep government money flowing to it, despite the program's many and well-known errors, problems and delays. As Andrew Cockburn points out, the campaign even appears to extend to putting pressure on local politicians and 'buying' favorable politicians. It's my personal opinion that this entire public relations effort is nothing more than an attempt to fraudulently deceive the US electorate about the waste of their money that the F-35 program has come to represent.

I repeat what I've said before. I believe the entire F-35 program has become bloated, ineffective and corrupt. I think the whole thing should be shut down before it does irreparable damage to the USAF and the air defense of the United States and its allies. We can do much better, at a far more reasonable cost.

I suppose there's one positive thing about it, though . . . China has allegedly stolen much of the design of the F-35 through cyber-espionage. Its recently-unveiled Shenyang J-31 'stealth' jet fighter prototype appears to incorporate many features of both the F-35 and the earlier F-22. If China's copying this boondoggle, perhaps it, too, will waste much of its air force's substance on a white elephant. That, at least, may allow the USAF to fight China - if matters should ever come to that - with an aircraft equal in inferiority to the enemy's!

Peter