BC Iconoclast

The BC Government may be closer to balanced than most people orginally thought

2013-06-18T13:40:00.000-07:00

The price for natural gas in North America is doing better than had been predicted a few months ago. It has been higher than assumed in the BC budget by enough to make it reasonable to assume the revenues from natural gas will be closer to 2009/10 or 2010/11 levels. This would seem to indicate that it is probable that the BC government will collect around $350,000,000 in revenues from natural gas which is about $70,000,000 more than assumed in the budget.

$70 million is not a huge amount but it could be a lot more if the price rises over the rest of this fiscal year but there is no way to be certain if the right events will happen to drive up the prices. If price does hold for the rest of the year $500,000,000 to $600,000,000 becomes possible, that is an extra $220,000,000 to $320,000,000 more than the budget forecast. If the prices do hold for the rest of this fiscal year it makes it a lot easier for the BC budget to be balanced.

So why has the price risen this year? Supply could not meet demand over this winter in North America. 2011/12 was a warm winter and this drove the price to a record low by April 2012. This last winter was a cold one. This summer may also see demand outstrip supply if it is hot, two week weather forecasts for hot weather in the US have driven up the price for natural gas.

Will the recent higher price continue? In the longer term I do not think the price will see much rise at all, but over the next couple months and years it might.

Weather matters - a hot summer and cold winter will drive up the price. A heavy hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico would slow down production and drive up the price.

As the price increases there are many wells that have been drilled but are dormant that can come online. Meanwhile the general level of production in North America continues to increase.

The Mexicans have become consumers of North American natural gas - they are connected to the US pipelines. In theory Mexico should have more natural gas than they can use, but the lack of infrastructure investment by Pemex means that Mexico can not produce what they need. If Mexico were to ever privatize Pemex there would be an oil and gas revolution in North America.

Longer term the ability to development more supply of natural gas in North America is enough to meet all the current demand potential demand that export is the only option. In the medium term, if more coal fired power plants were to be closed in favour of natural gas fired power plants the demand in North America may keep up with the supply but likely not as fast as is needed. Long term North America will see low natural gas prices unless there is significant export of natural gas but that only works if there is a high enough price somewhere to justify LNG.

Government changes in Canada since World War II

2013-06-12T11:02:00.000-07:00

In the 68 years since the end of World War II Canada has had a surprisingly few changes in government

8- Quebec - 4 Liberal, 3 PQ, 2 Union Nationale
7 - Federal goverment - 4 Liberal, 4 PC/CPC
7 - New Brunswick - 4 Liberal, 4 PC
6 - Manitoba - 3 NDP, 3 PC, 1 Liberal
6 - PEI - 4 Liberal, 3 PC
6 - Nova Scotia - 3 Liberal, 3 PC, 1 NDP
6 - British Columbia - 2 NDP, 2 Liberal, 2 Social Credit, 1 Coalition - in January 1952 the PCs left the Coalition government and the Liberals governed with a minority for another eight months
6 - Yukon - 2 PC, 2 NDP, 1 Yukon, 1 Liberal, 1 NA - Yukon had their first elected responsible government in 1978, before that they were ruled directly by the federal government, I count this as a change in government
5 - Saskatchewan - 3 CCF/NDP, 1 Liberal, 1 PC, 1 Sask party
4 - Newfoundland and Labrador - 2 Liberal, 2 PC, 1 NA - in 1949 Newfoundland changed from direct rule from London to responsible government which I count as a change of government
4 - Ontario - 2 PC, 2 Liberal, 1 NDP
1 - Alberta - 1 Social Credit, 1 PC

The longest governments since World War II, including governments in power before 1945

15,290 days Ontario PCs - 1943 to 1985
15,252 days Alberta PCs - 1971 still in office
13,157 days Alberta Social Credit - 1935 to 1971
9,208 days Nova Scotia Liberals - 1933 to 1958
8,801 days PEI Liberals - 1935 to 1959
83,28 days Newfoundland Liberals - 1949 to 1972
7,913 days Federal Liberals - 1935 to 1957
7,351 days BC Social Creidt - 1952 to 1972
7,257 days Saskatchewan CCF - 1944 to 1964
6,318 days Newfoundland PCs - 1972 to 1989
6,194 days New Brunswick PCs - 1970 to 1987
5,888 days Federal Liberals - 1963 to 1979
5,865 days Saskatchewan NDP - 1991 to 2007
5,828 days Quebec Union Nationale - 1944 to 1960
5,798 days BC Social Credit - 1975 to 1991

Keynes versus Hayek - humourous videos by Econstories

2013-06-12T09:59:00.001-07:00

These videos from Econstories actually make this classic economic argument interesting - I admit I tend to see more accuracy in what Hayek proposed as a model of economics than Keynes, but in both cases I think they are overly simplistic. An economy is a very complex structure and people do not act in simplistic ways within it. I have yet to see any good modelling for detailed economic analysis to explain why things happened.

Here is Round 2

The Clark Cabinet

2013-06-08T17:53:00.000-07:00

Of the 48 current Liberal MLAs, 33 of them are in the cabinet or are parliamentary secretaries. Another one of the MLAs will be the speaker and another one will be the government whip, this only leaves 13 Liberal MLAs without an extra job. Hardly back bench that is large enough to keep in the executive in check.

19 MLAs are in the cabinet, two more than her last cabinet. She has seven women in the cabinet, the same as before.

Three Cabinet Members had no changes:

Mike de Jong - Finance Minister and House Leader
Steve Thomson - Minister of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations
Stephanie Cadieux - Minister of Children and Family Development

Six Cabinet Members changed jobs

Terry Lake - Minister of Health - was Environment
Rich Coleman - Deputy Premier and Minister for Natural Gas Development, and Minister Responsible for Housing - was Minister of Energy, Mines and Natural Gas and Minister Responsible for Housing and Deputy Premier - Minister of Natural Gas Development is a new one
Don McRae - Minister of Social Development and Social Innovation - was Education. Social Innovation is new
Bill Bennett - Minister of Energy and Mines Minister and Minister Responsible for Core Review - was Community Sport and Cultural Development. Energy and Mines no longer seems to have natural gas within it
Shirley Bond - Minister of Jobs, Tourism, and Skills Training and Minister Responsible for Labour - was Justice and Attorney General
Mary Polak - Minister of the Environment - was Transportation and Infrastructure
Naomi Yamamoto - Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism - was Minister of State for Small Business

Two back benchers made it into cabinet

Pat Pimm - Minister of Agriculture
John Rustad - Minister of Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation

Seven first time MLAs made into cabinet

Peter Fassbender - Minister of Education
Amrik Virk - Minister of Advanced Education
Todd Stone - Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure and Deputy House Leader .
Andrew Wilkinson - Technology, Innovation and Citizens' Services Minister .
Coralee Oakes - Minister of Community Sport and Cultural Development
Teresa Wat - Minister for International Trade and Minister responsible for Asia Pacific Strategy and Multiculturalism - this is a new Ministry
Suzanne Anton - Justice Minister and Attorney General .

There are also 14 parliamentary secretaries, an increase of four from her first cabinet in 2011.
Six sitting MLAs are Parliamentary Secretaries.

Norm Letnick - Parliamentary Secretary to the Premier for Intergovernmental Affairs. .
John Yap - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General for Liquor Policy Reform.
Jane Thornthwaite - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Education for Student Support and Parent Engagement
Marc Dalton - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Education for the Independent School Sector.
Donna Barnett - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations for Rural Development.
Richard T. Lee - Parliamentary Secretary for the Asia Pacific Strategy to the Minister of International Trade and Minister Responsible for the Asia Pacific Strategy and Multiculturalism

Eight new MLAs are Parliamentary Secretaries.

Dan Ashton - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister Responsible for Core Review
Greg Kyllo - Parliamentary Secretary for the BC Jobs Plan to the Minister of Jobs, Tourism and Skills Training.
Linda Reimer - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Community, Sport and Cultural Development for Communities
Linda Larson - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Health for Seniors.
Michelle Stilwell - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Health for Healthy Living.
Darryl Plecas - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General for Crime Reduction.
Laurie Throness - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Justice and Attorney General for Corrections.
Jordan Sturdy - Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure for Transportation.

Dropped from cabinet:

Still sitting as MLAs - Norm Letnik, Moira Stilwell and Ralph Sultan
Defeated - Ida Chong and Margaret MacDiarmid
Resigned - Ben Stewart - resigned to provide a seat for Christy Clark to run in
Did not run again - Pat Bell

Have no positions - though one will be speaker and one will be government whip

Mike Bernier - 2013
Doug Bing - 2013
Eric Foster - 2009
Shane Gibson - 2013
Scott Hamilton - 2013
Gordon Hogg - 1997
Douglas Horne - 2009
Marvin Hunt - 2013
John Martin - 2013
Mike Morris - 2013
Linda Reid - 1991
Moira Stilwell - 2009
Sam Sullivan - 2013
Ralph Sultan - 2001
Jackie Tegart - 2013

Of these 15, nine of them are first time MLAs, three more are class of 2009 and only three have served longer, though two of them are among only four Liberal MLAs that have served in opposition.

One thing I hope for from a Christy Clark government

2013-06-08T16:36:00.000-07:00

I would love to see the government selling all the government owned liquor stores and get our of the distribution business. Winelaw.ca has a lot to say on the subject.

Alcohol is a legal product and many other countries show us that liberal laws relating to the product and a fully private system works just fine. We are still burdened with the remnants of the failed quasi prohibition of alcohol in BC of close to 100 years ago.

We have seen through some decades now that the world does not come to an end if private liquor stores operate in BC. No one has shown any downsides to the new private stores and they have even managed to be successful within the bizarre and restrictive rules in BC. One of the biggest worries was with under age drinking, I see no evidence of this is now more of a problem.

Selling off the liquor stores would free up a bunch of capital for the government and allow the province to reduce the debt load. The government would also see more taxes coming in because the private liquor stores would have to pay corporate income taxes and other fees that the government ones do not pay at the moment.

If we were to have a fully private system I expect our selection would improve. I can see stores specializing in beers, wines, or other alcohol.

It will also be easier for the government to police the sales of booze to underage people because there is no conflict of interest. At the moment it seems to easier for underage people to buy a six pack of beer at a government liquor store than a private one. I am not sure the BCGEU would take kindly to stings being run on their members in the government liqour stores.

How does it make sense for the government to operate a completely separate distribution system for booze? There are no shortage of food and drink logistics companies operating in BC that could take over all the liquor distribution. We can trust the private sector to distribute tobacco so we should be able to trust them to

I would like to see this done in conjunction with changes to liquor laws in the province.

Let me buy my alcohol where I shop for my food. My children are not going to be corrupted by seeing alcohol for sale. Cigarettes are available in grocery store and they are more harmful and much more addictive than alcohol.
Have a single liquor licence for all establishments that want to sell alcohol - let them decide how much of a focus it will be of their business. There are no end of restaurants out there that really operate as if they were a bar.
Make is easier for non-profits and the public to hold events that have alcohol at them

Best Results for the BC Conservatives in the last few elections

2013-06-06T17:55:00.002-07:00

I thought I would look at the results for the BC Conservatives. Since the 1983 election they have run 140 candidates, here are all results with more than 10% of the vote

Elect Riding Percent Votes

2013 Peace River South 27.21 2,546 - their only 2nd place finish
2012 Chilliwack Hope 25.15 3,615
2009 Boundary Similkameen 20.16 3,596
2012 Port Moody Coquitlam 15.36 1,766
2009 Chilliwack 14.65 2,672
2013 Shuswap 12.92 3,232
2013 Parksville Qualicum 12.81 3,710
2013 Kelowna Mission 12.67 3,051
2013 Nechako Lakes 12.66 1,253
2013 Chilliwack 11.96 2,510
2013 Langley 11.88 3,242 - leader
2009 Kelowna Mission 11.86 2,531
2013 Vernon Monashee 11.75 3,169
2005 Okanagan Vernon 11.56 3,095 - only result before 2009
2013 Richmond Steveston 11.40 2,662
2009 Kelowna Lake Country 11.42 2,253
2013 Westside Kelowna 11.09 2,466
2013 Kelowna Lake Country 10.99 2,351
2013 Chilliwack Hope 10.77 2,202
2013 Surrey Tynehead 10.71 2,040
2009 Shuswap 10.28 2,374

Year # on the list

2013 13

2012 2

2009 5

2005 1

The Conservatives managed to do comparably as well in 2013 as they did in 1979 though in that election they held a seat going into it. Interesting is that the 2012 by-elections are the second and fourth best results for the party.

John Cummins result as a leader is not very good, he should have been one of the best results for the party in the election. Clearly it is time for John Cummins to go, the only reason the media is not making an issue of it is because the party is not giving people a reason to take it seriously

Why Westside Kelowna?

2013-06-06T17:08:00.001-07:00

The margin of victory for the Liberals in Westside Kelowna was decent in 2013 but certainly not the best for the party. It is also clearly the weakest Kelowna seat for the Liberals

Difference between the Liberals and NDP in percentage ponts

West Vancouver-Capilano 44.65
Vancouver-Quilchena 39.00
Kelowna-Lake Country 31.98
Kelowna-Mission 31.02
Surrey-Cloverdale 30.47
Surrey-White Rock 30.45
Fort Langley-Aldergrove 29.22
Westside Kelowna 27.86

In the first seven seats the Liberals more than doubled the NDP vote.

Difference between the Liberals and NDP in total votes

West Vancouver-Capilano 10,501
Surrey-Cloverdale 9,224
Vancouver-Quilchena 8,791
Fort Langley-Aldergrove 8,478
Surrey-White Rock 7,912
Kelowna-Mission 7,466
Kelowna-Lake Country 6,643
Langley 6,636
Westside-Kelowna 6,586

One more seat that would be a very safe Liberal one would be Peace River North. The shift to the Okanagan and then to a riding other than the strongest Liberal one is a bit odd. Was no one else willing to step aside?

Can the NDP win Westside Kelowna? Maybe

2013-06-06T09:16:00.000-07:00

The latest election results look rock solid for the Liberals but by-elections are strange creatures. In a by-election Westside Kelowna is not nearly as safe as people think it might be. We have to consider the likely drop in voter turn out and then there is a the "government curse" in BC by-elections - in 31 by-elections in the last 50 years, only three have been won by the government, 10 were seats the government held but then lost in the by-election.

2013 Election Results
Ben Stewart Liberal 12,987 58.39%
Carole Gordon NDP 6,790 30.53%
Brian Guillou BCCP 2,466 11.09%
The total vote 22,243

What comes into play in a by-election is lower voter turnout. In the last 30 years the norm in Canada has been by-elections with significantly lower voter turnout than the previous general election. Over the last nine by-elections in BC, voter turnout has average 2/3s of the previous provincial election. This is roughly the same results over the last 50 federal by-elections so it would be seem to be a trend. I think we can safely assume that the turnout will be lower than the recent election and that a 2/3s turnout is a good starting point.

A turnout of 2/3s of of the provincial election would leave us at 15,000 valid votes but how will that play out in the by-election? Everything depends on who will come out and vote, if the NDP gets their supporters to vote they can win the by-election.

Too often people focus much too much energy on the percentage of the vote a party will get and not on the raw absolute numbers which I think are more important. When we look at the results in Chilliwack-Hope for New Democrat Gwen O'Mahony we can see this at play. She ran in the 2009 and 2013 provincial elections and the 2013 by-election

2009 5,638 33.43% - lost by 3,347
2012 6,022 41.89% - won by 1,429
2013 7,364 36.01% - lost by 2,689

She managed to increase her vote in every election but only won in the 2012 by-election when the voter turnout was low overall. This sort of pattern repeats itself in many by-elections. A party that should not be competitive manages to get their supporters to vote in a by-election and they then win or come close simply by not suffering a drop in votes when the other parties do.

The 6,790 votes the NDP recently managed to achieve is enough to have a chance to win the seat if only 15,000 people vote.

A notional vote split with 15,000 voters assuming the NDP manages to get their vote out:
NDP 6,750
Libs 6,250
BCCP 1,500
Others 250
(this is not a prediction, just an illustration to show how voter retention by the NDP could allow them to win)

For the Liberals to be certain of winning they need a high voter turnout and they need to have people that voted NDP recently decide not to go to the polls.

I do think Christy Clark will win but I think it will be much closer than people expect it to be.

1st, 2nd and 3rd Place Finishes

2013-05-31T19:26:00.002-07:00

We normally only talk about how many MLAs are elected, but I thought I would look at the number of silver and bronze finishes in the last couple of BC elections.

2013 - the first election in which any Liberals finished in third place since 1996
Party First Second Third
Liberals 49 24 2
NDP 34 45 6
Independents 1 3 1
Greens 1 2 47
Conservatives 0 1 30

2009
Party First Second Third
Liberals 49 26 0
NDP 35 48 2
Independents 1 1 1
Greens 0 0 74
Conservatives 0 0 8

2005
Party First Second Third
Liberals 46 33 0
NDP 33 44 2
Greens 0 1 74
Independents 0 1 1
Conservatives 0 0 2

2001
Party First Second Third
Liberals 77 2 0
NDP 2 63 12
Greens 0 12 51
Independents 0 1 1
Social Credit 0 1 0
Unity 0 0 8
Marijuana 0 0 3

1996
Party First Second Third
NDP 39 34 2
Liberals 33 40 2
Reform 2 0 44
PDA 1 1 24
Independents 0 1 1
Greens 0 0 2

1991
Party First Second Third
NDP 51 17 7
Liberals 17 41 13
Social Credit 7 16 51
Independents 0 1 2

All Six Elections
Party First Second Third
Liberals 271 168 17
NDP 194 251 31
Social Credit 7 17 51
Independents 2 7 6
Reform 2 0 44
Greens 1 15 248
PDA 1 1 24
Conservatives 0 1 40
Unity 0 0 8
Marijuana 0 0 3

First look at BC electoral redistribution

2013-05-30T16:34:00.000-07:00

BC is due for a review of the populations of our ridings. The average per riding is 51,765 according to the 2011 census. The populations are not allowed to more than 25% larger or smaller than this and ideally more like only 10% above or below the average.

+25% is 64,706
+10% is 56,942
-10% is 46,589
-25% is 38,824

Here they are sorted by populations - blue are too large, red are too small. Those in bold are beyond the legal limit of +-25%

Riding	Population	Percent of Avg
Surrey-Cloverdale	73570	142.12%
Surrey-Panorama	68995	133.29%
Richmond Centre	66035	127.57%
New Westminster	65955	127.41%
Fort Langley-Aldergrove	65800	127.11%
Richmond East	65310	126.17%
Langley	64020	123.67%
Comox Valley	63540	122.75%
Vernon-Monashee	61405	118.62%
Surrey-Whalley	60615	117.10%
Surrey-Newton	60115	116.13%
Vancouver-Fraserview	59775	115.47%
Vancouver-Kingsway	59345	114.64%
Richmond-Steveston	59125	114.22%
Kelowna-Lake Country	58785	113.56%
Surrey-Tynehead	58160	112.35%
Kelowna-Mission	58090	112.22%
Burnaby North	57945	111.94%
Vancouver-Kensington	57790	111.64%
Surrey-Green Timbers	57540	111.16%
Cowichan Valley	57530	111.14%
Westside-Kelowna	57480	111.04%
Burnaby-Edmonds	57340	110.77%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale	57090	110.29%
Vancouver-Point Grey	57065	110.24%
Vancouver-Langara	57040	110.19%
Surrey-Fleetwood	56550	109.24%
Vancouver-Quilchena	56440	109.03%
Saanich North and the Islands	56270	108.70%
Vancouver-False Creek	56205	108.58%
Maple Ridge-Mission	56045	108.27%
Vancouver-Hastings	55985	108.15%
Port Coquitlam	55965	108.11%
West Vancouver-Capilano	55950	108.08%
Coquitlam-Maillardville	55575	107.36%
Shuswap	55510	107.23%
Penticton	55490	107.20%
Vancouver-Fairview	55375	106.97%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows	55325	106.88%
Burnaby-Deer Lake	54625	105.52%
North Island	54530	105.34%
Kamloops-South Thompson	54355	105.00%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain	54325	104.95%
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant	54230	104.76%
Delta North	53945	104.21%
North Vancouver-Seymour	53405	103.17%
Abbotsford South	53375	103.11%
Burnaby-Lougheed	53315	102.99%
Abbotsford-Mission	53090	102.56%
Nanaimo-North Cowichan	52910	102.21%
Port Moody-Coquitlam	52745	101.89%
Nanaimo	52575	101.56%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky	52575	101.56%
Kamloops-North Thompson	52545	101.51%
Surrey-White Rock	52285	101.00%
Chilliwack	52245	100.93%
Juan de Fuca	52170	100.78%
Parksville-Qualicum	51950	100.36%
Victoria-Beacon Hill	51570	99.62%
Saanich South	50830	98.19%
Abbotsford West	50790	98.12%
Chilliwack-Hope	50745	98.03%
Esquimalt-Royal Roads	50170	96.92%
Victoria-Swan Lake	50110	96.80%
Oak Bay-Gordon Head	48875	94.42%
Vancouver-West End	48595	93.88%
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	48325	93.35%
Prince George-Valemount	46920	90.64%
Delta South	46645	90.11%
Prince George-Mackenzie	44960	86.85%
Alberni-Pacific Rim	43430	83.90%
Kootenay West	40675	78.58%
Peace River North	39335	75.99%
Kootenay East	38875	75.10%
Boundary-Similkameen	38160	73.72%
Nelson-Creston	37045	71.56%
Cariboo North	32980	63.71%
Columbia River-Revelstoke	32205	62.21%
Fraser-Nicola	30535	58.99%
Skeena	29575	57.13%
Cariboo-Chilcotin	29415	56.82%
Nechako Lakes	27055	52.27%
Peace River South	26325	50.85%
North Coast	22320	43.12%
Stikine	20240	39.10%

As you can see from the list, the bottom 11 are all the rural parts of BC. Meanwhile it is the suburbs of Vancouver that have all the ridings with too many people. Unless there are more seats added to the legislature, rural BC will have to lose three seats to Metro Vancouver.

I suspect the Kootenaies are going to lose one of their four MLAs. The North Coast and Stikine could be amalgamated and barely have enough people. It will be hard to justify two MLAs coming from the Cariboo.

Impact of Greens and Conservatives on the election results

2013-05-30T15:33:00.001-07:00

Since the Greens and Conservatives did not run full slates I thought it might be interesting to look at how the election went looking at where they did and did not run.

For the BC Conservatives I am including the four candidates that ran for them but were not listed as such on the ballot. This means there are 60 Conservative candidates.

What is interesting in this analysis is that the Liberals do not seem to gain any benefit when there is no BCCP candidate and the NDP does not gain any benefit from the lack of a Green. The idea of a vote split going on is false because the data simply does not bear it out.

Here are eight different breakdowns of the provincial election based on where the Greens and the Conservatives did or did not run candidates.

61 ridings where the Greens ran a candidate
Liberals NDP Greens BCCP Others
42.61% 40.77% 11.15% 4.14% 1.33%
The Liberals were weaker in areas where the Greens ran

24 rdings with no Green candidate
Liberals NDP BCCP Others
48.29% 36.85% 7.06% 7.81%
Even though in these ridings the BCCP and independents did better than their provincial average so to did the Liberals and it was the NDP below average.

60 ridings where the BCCP ran a candidate
Liberals NDP Greens BCCP Others
47.32% 37.42% 6.52% 6.85% 1.89%

25 ridings with no BCCP candidate
Liberals NDP Greens Other
34.95% 45.63% 12.28% 6.15%

41 ridings with both a Green and a BCCP candidate
Liberals NDP Greens BCCP Other
46.20% 37.04% 9.39% 6.03% 1.35%
In the 41 four way races it is the NDP that is weaker and other three parties stronger. In the four way races the combined NDP and Green vote is only barely more than the Liberal vote alone.

5 ridings with no Green or BCCP candidate
Liberal NDP Others
41.41% 30.68% 27.91%
One these five ridings, Kootenay East, only had a New Democrat and Liberal running. When you factor that one out, the other four end up being really a three way split.

20 ridings with a Green but no BCCP
Liberals NDP Greens Others
34.73% 48.98% 15.03% 1.27%
With no vote split on the right but one on the left, you would think the Liberals would have benefited, but that is not what the data tells us.

19 ridings with a BCCP candidate but no Green
Liberals NDP BCCP Others
49.88% 38.29% 8.71% 3.13%
Now we have the right wing vote split but the NDP does not benefit.

When I get a chance I will compare these sets of ridings to the 2009 results to see what it shows.

Some Turn Out Stats for the 2013 BC Election

2013-05-30T14:51:00.000-07:00

It will be some months till have have all the final numbers. I have to estimate the final numbers for 2013 because Elections BC is not reporting the rejected ballots yet. I am estimating a higher rejected ballot rate for the 2013 election because of the increase in special ballots. In 2005 and 2009 about 6% of special ballots were rejected but only 0.3% for the regular ballots

Election 2005 2009 2013
EDay 1,476,076 1,258,880 1,252,393 est
Advance 201,833 290,220 381,861 est
Special 96,330 102,464 184,013 est
Rejected 11,926 11,025 15,216 est
Total Vote 1,774,269 1,651,567 1,833,483 est

We had a further decline in election day voting in 2013 with close to 31% of the ballots being cast as advance or special ballots. In 2009 this was 24% and in 2005 17%.

With the final vote counting done, here are the turn outs as a percentage of registered voters on April 23rd 2013 and we had 57.85% of the registered voters cast a valid ballot

This is corrected from earlier in the day, a couple of lines were mixed up

Riding	total vote	2013 Reg Voters	Percent Turnout
Oak Bay-Gordon Head	26517	37443	70.82%
Saanich North and the Islands	31602	44980	70.26%
Delta South	23797	34473	69.03%
Parksville-Qualicum	28960	42280	68.50%
North Vancouver-Seymour	25983	38055	68.28%
Saanich South	26228	38685	67.80%
Cariboo North	14167	20926	67.70%
Stikine	8650	13219	65.44%
Surrey-White Rock	25982	39796	65.29%
Comox Valley	32186	49503	65.02%
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	23768	36976	64.28%
Fraser-Nicola	13599	21363	63.66%
Kamloops-South Thompson	26434	41593	63.55%
Boundary-Similkameen	18244	28817	63.31%
Cowichan Valley	26646	42312	62.98%
Nanaimo-North Cowichan	24978	40230	62.09%
Shuswap	25023	40475	61.82%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale	24326	39633	61.38%
Fort Langley-Aldergrove	29016	47423	61.19%
Nechako Lakes	9898	16270	60.84%
Delta North	21586	35528	60.76%
West Vancouver-Capilano	23538	38794	60.67%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows	23795	39378	60.43%
Vancouver-Point Grey	24163	39988	60.43%
Vancouver-Fairview	26732	44362	60.26%
Vancouver-Quilchena	22539	37501	60.10%
Abbotsford West	18802	31401	59.88%
Langley	27292	45610	59.84%
Victoria-Beacon Hill	25815	43521	59.32%
Port Moody-Coquitlam	20858	35281	59.12%
Penticton	25163	42651	59.00%
Alberni-Pacific Rim	18367	31178	58.91%
Prince George-Mackenzie	19366	32877	58.90%
Esquimalt-Royal Roads	22745	38638	58.87%
Kamloops-North Thompson	23402	39857	58.71%
Victoria-Swan Lake	22665	38623	58.68%
Cariboo-Chilcotin	13699	23375	58.61%
Surrey-Panorama	26042	44477	58.55%
Nanaimo	23394	40010	58.47%
Surrey-Cloverdale	30272	51811	58.43%
Nelson-Creston	16164	27672	58.41%
Juan de Fuca	22934	39270	58.40%
Maple Ridge-Mission	22165	37982	58.36%
Vernon-Monashee	26979	46322	58.24%
Chilliwack-Hope	20452	35237	58.04%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky	21445	36949	58.04%
New Westminster	26750	46178	57.93%
North Island	23443	40514	57.86%
Port Coquitlam	22205	38458	57.74%
Kootenay West	18002	31290	57.53%
Coquitlam-Maillardville	21714	38057	57.06%
Abbotsford-Mission	20533	35989	57.05%
Skeena	11756	20645	56.94%
Prince George-Valemount	19826	34877	56.85%
Burnaby-Lougheed	20225	35754	56.57%
Surrey-Fleetwood	19755	34950	56.52%
Chilliwack	20983	37145	56.49%
Abbotsford South	20034	35657	56.19%
Richmond-Steveston	23348	42098	55.46%
Burnaby North	22518	40604	55.46%
Vancouver-Fraserview	21649	39067	55.42%
Columbia River-Revelstoke	13393	24467	54.74%
Vancouver-Kensington	20802	38016	54.72%
North Coast	8140	14956	54.43%
Vancouver-Hastings	21498	39822	53.99%
Peace River North	13411	24854	53.96%
Kelowna-Mission	24072	44671	53.89%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain	19583	36473	53.69%
Kootenay East	16146	30224	53.42%
Surrey-Newton	17348	32557	53.29%
Surrey-Green Timbers	16167	30571	52.88%
Surrey-Tynehead	19049	36240	52.56%
Peace River South	9358	18066	51.80%
Vancouver-West End	18932	36978	51.20%
Vancouver-False Creek	21607	42232	51.16%
Vancouver-Langara	19455	38225	50.90%
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant	21031	41446	50.74%
Westside-Kelowna	22243	44830	49.62%
Burnaby-Edmonds	17991	36598	49.16%
Vancouver-Kingsway	18346	37346	49.12%
Burnaby-Deer Lake	16892	35062	48.18%
Kelowna-Lake Country	21397	44610	47.96%
Richmond East	21208	44469	47.69%
Surrey-Whalley	16939	36498	46.41%
Richmond Centre	18954	43387	43.69%

The best finishes for Independents in BC

2013-05-22T17:29:00.000-07:00

There were 35 independent candidates and 11 unaffiliated ones of which 7 were defacto independent. Overall the independents did much better in this election than in past ones even if you ignore the impact of Bob Simpson and John van Dongen.

I used 3.5% as the cut off because it shows that there was some effort there and managed to capture all the independent candidates anyone may have heard of.

Here are the top independent candidates ranked by percentage of the vote they achieved.

Vicki Huntingdon 48.03% 10,620 Delta South - 1/3
Bob Simpson 37.28% 4,933 Cariboo North - 2/3
John van Dongen 28.10% 5,138 Abbotsford South - 2/5
Arthur Hadland 25.57% 3,021 Peace River North - 2/4
Joseph Hughes 13.30% 2,239 Kootenay West - 3/4
Gary Law 8.46% 1,428 Richmond Centre - 4/7
Moe Gill 5.77% 1,004 Abbotsford West - 4/6
Tyrel Andrew Phol 4.91% 413 Peace River South - 4/4
Dayleen Van Ryswyk 4.82% 1,025 Kelowna Mission - 4/4
Michael Markwick 4.37% 918 West Vancouver Capilano - 4/5
Jamie Webbe 4.08% 939 North Vancouver Seymour - 5/5
Ryan McKinnon 4.05% 782 Chilliwack Hope - 4/4
James Crosty 3.98% 943 New Westmister - 5/6
Richard Lee 3.98% 672 Richmond Centre - 5/7
Gary Young 3.69% 455 Cariboo Chilcotin - 4/4
Mischa Popoff 3.59% 608 Boundary Similkameen 4/5

The one that interests me is Joseph Hughes in Kootenay West, who is he and why did he do so well?

Comparing 2013 Preliminary Vote Count to 2009

2013-05-21T21:15:00.000-07:00

Since we have not yet counted the special ballots, here is the comparison to the 2009 preliminary vote so that we can have a more a accurate comparison between the two elections in the interim.

Elect Libs NDP Greens BCCP Others total
2013 724,068 643,434 130,421 77,799 53,882 1,629,544
2009 713,994 646,886 130,233 32,620 25,050 1,548,770
Change +10,074 -3,452 +212 +45,179 +28,832 +80,774

The Liberals increased their vote by just over 10,000 while the NDP lost 3,450.

The Greens are almost the same though they only ran 61 candidates in this election and not 85 as in 2009. This means the average Green vote rose by 40% in each riding

The BC Conservatives increased 45,000 votes but they also ran 56 candidates in 2013 as opposed to 24 in in 2009 which means they achieved almost the same amount per candidate.

The vote for all the others more than doubled.
---------------------
Update on May 22nd

For the record, here is how the parties did with the 91,759 special ballots cast in 2009:

Liberals NDP Greens BCCP Others
37,667 44,678 4,383 1,831 3,200
41.05% 48.69% 4.78% 2.00% 3.49%

As you can see the NDP did better than their election day results while the Greens did significantly worse. I have no idea if this pattern will repeat itself in 2013.

Getting a lot of votes is not enough to win

2013-05-21T13:50:00.000-07:00

One of the quirks of our arcane electoral system is that some candidates do much better than others in getting votes but still lose the election.

Here are the top 10 losers of the 2013 BC election

11,024 Kasandra Dyke NDP Comox Valley - 7th best result for a New Democrat
9,999 Margaret MacDiarmid Liberal Vancouver Fairview - 23rd best result for a Liberal
9,911 Barry Avis NDP Parksville Qualicum
9,629 Stephen Roberts Liberal Saanich North and the Islands
9,377 Christy Clark Liberal Vancouver Point Grey
9,294 Adam Olsen Green - 3rd place in Saanich North and the Islands - 2nd best result for a Green
9,257 Dick Cannings NDP Penticton
9,179 Elizabeth Rosenau NDP Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows
8,939 Chris Wilson NDP Coquitlam Maillardville
8,876 Nick Facey Liberal North Island

19 of the MLAs elected a week ago did not manage to get as many votes as the above ten

Here is the list of the MLAs that received the least support on election day

3,769 Doug Donaldson NDP Stikine
3,904 Mike Bernier Liberal Peace River South
4,340 Jennifer Rice NDP North Coast
4,859 John Rustad Liberal Nechako Lakes
5,459 Coralee Oakes Liberal Cariboo North
5,539 Jackie Teggart Liberal Fraser Nicola
6,019 Norm Macdonald NDP Columbia River Revelstoke
6,809 Patt Pimm Liberal Peace River North
6,952 Donna Barnett Liberal Cariboo Chilcotin
7,320 Kathy Corrigan NDP Burnaby Deer Lake

Turnout in the BC Election - lower than 2009 - Also, turnout by riding

2013-05-20T16:45:00.000-07:00

This is the preliminary turnout which includes advance voting and the voting on May 14th, it is does not include special ballots like absentee ballots or early voting. In 2009 there were 102,467 special ballots cast and in 2005 there were 96,330 cast. I think we can safely assume about 120,000 to 150,000 special ballots were cast in 2013.

Total turnout was 1,629,454 out of 3,116,626 people registered to vote by April 23rd, or 52.29% turnout. The total registered voters is likely to have risen about 45,000 on election day but roughly 270,000 to 300,000 people were likely not registered to vote.

For comparison, the number of advance and election votes as a percentage of the public registered by the close of registrations:
Year Voted Registered Turnout
2013 1,629,454 3,116,626 52.29%
2009 1,549,100 2,948,175 52.54%.
2005 1,677,909 2,744,078 61.15%

Bold indicates ridings with turnout 110% of provincial average, italic indicates less than 90% of provincial average. Underlined ridings changed hands

Riding	Adv + May 14 votes	2013 Reg Voters	Turnout
Saanich North and the Islands	29171	44980	64.85%
Delta South	22110	34473	64.14%
Oak Bay-Gordon Head	23953	37443	63.97%
Parksville-Qualicum	26801	42280	63.39%
Saanich South	23829	38685	61.60%
Stikine	8092	13219	61.21%
North Vancouver-Seymour	23016	38055	60.48%
Surrey-White Rock	23460	39796	58.95%
Cariboo North	12317	20926	58.86%
Boundary-Similkameen	16947	28817	58.81%
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	21728	36976	58.76%
Cowichan Valley	24813	42312	58.64%
Shuswap	23607	40475	58.32%
Comox Valley	28681	49503	57.94%
Fraser-Nicola	12330	21363	57.72%
Delta North	20164	35528	56.76%
Cariboo-Chilcotin	13232	23375	56.61%
Nanaimo-North Cowichan	22687	40230	56.39%
Kamloops-South Thompson	23353	41593	56.15%
Fort Langley-Aldergrove	26162	47423	55.17%
Alberni-Pacific Rim	17187	31178	55.13%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale	21773	39633	54.94%
Nechako Lakes	8915	16270	54.79%
Chilliwack-Hope	19292	35237	54.75%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows	21532	39378	54.68%
Nelson-Creston	15057	27672	54.41%
Abbotsford West	17032	31401	54.24%
West Vancouver-Capilano	21011	38794	54.16%
Port Moody-Coquitlam	19029	35281	53.94%
Penticton	22953	42651	53.82%
Kootenay West	16837	31290	53.81%
Vancouver-Point Grey	21494	39988	53.75%
Esquimalt-Royal Roads	20760	38638	53.73%
Vancouver-Quilchena	20129	37501	53.68%
Langley	24462	45610	53.63%
Juan de Fuca	21038	39270	53.57%
Victoria-Beacon Hill	23285	43521	53.50%
Surrey-Panorama	23717	44477	53.32%
Kamloops-North Thompson	21201	39857	53.19%
Maple Ridge-Mission	20169	37982	53.10%
Prince George-Mackenzie	17429	32877	53.01%
Surrey-Cloverdale	27296	51811	52.68%
Vancouver-Fairview	23311	44362	52.55%
Chilliwack	19486	37145	52.46%
Skeena	10830	20645	52.46%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky	19332	36949	52.32%
Port Coquitlam	20109	38458	52.29%
Nanaimo	20870	40010	52.16%
Vernon-Monashee	24077	46322	51.98%
Abbotsford-Mission	18692	35989	51.94%
North Island	20961	40514	51.74%
Coquitlam-Maillardville	19670	38057	51.69%
Victoria-Swan Lake	19902	38623	51.53%
Surrey-Fleetwood	17965	34950	51.40%
New Westminster	23690	46178	51.30%
Abbotsford South	18283	35657	51.27%
North Coast	7667	14956	51.26%
Columbia River-Revelstoke	12492	24467	51.06%
Richmond-Steveston	21465	42098	50.99%
Prince George-Valemount	17620	34877	50.52%
Vancouver-Fraserview	19339	39067	49.50%
Vancouver-Kensington	18810	38016	49.48%
Burnaby-Edmonds	17620	35754	49.28%
Kootenay East	14887	30224	49.26%
Surrey-Newton	15891	32557	48.81%
Burnaby-Lougheed	19800	40604	48.76%
Surrey-Tynehead	17504	36240	48.30%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain	17485	36473	47.94%
Kelowna-Mission	21278	44671	47.63%
Surrey-Green Timbers	14541	30571	47.56%
Peace River North	11816	24854	47.54%
Vancouver-Hastings	18900	39822	47.46%
Peace River South	8415	18066	46.58%
Vancouver-West End	17092	36978	46.22%
Vancouver-Langara	17656	38225	46.19%
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant	18478	41446	44.58%
Vancouver-Kingsway	16638	37346	44.55%
Richmond East	19511	44469	43.88%
Westside-Kelowna	19441	44830	43.37%
Burnaby North	15150	35062	43.21%
Burnaby-Deer Lake	15782	36598	43.12%
Vancouver-False Creek	18137	42232	42.95%
Kelowna-Lake Country	18763	44610	42.06%
Surrey-Whalley	15163	36498	41.54%
Richmond Centre	16884	43387	38.91%

The Impact of Party Affiliation on the Election Results

2013-05-17T14:41:00.002-07:00

Because of an error by the BC Conservatives in this election we can measure how much impact party affiliation may have on the results or not. Five BC Conservative candidates inadvertently were left of the BC Conservative candidate list submitted to the Elections BC, they shortly afterwards disavowed one of those candidates. They also dropped three other candidates before nominations closed because of problems with them.

Bill Clarke in Vancouver Quilchena
Christine Clark in Burnaby Lougheed
Mike Patras in Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows
Wayne Marklund in Burnaby North

The candidates dropped by the party well into the election

Jeff Sprague in North Vancouver Lonsdale on April 23rd about a drunk driving allegation - the party managed to replace him before nominations closed
Ian Tootill in Vancouver False Creek on April 23rd for comments online
Mischa Popoff in Boundary Similkameen on April 25th for comments online
Rob Herbert in Vancouver West End on April 28th for comments online

Since six of these candidates are all in Metro Vancouver and ran without any affiliation we can make some comparisons

Let us first compare results in the Burnaby - New Westminster - Tri Cities area
Burnaby Loughheed where Christine Clarke ran
Liberals NDP Green Non-Afil BCCP
7,322 41.56% 7,637 43.34% 1,417 8.04% 1,244 7.06%
Burnaby North where Wayne Marklund ran
Liberals NDP Green Non-Afil BCCP
9,376 47.35% 8,610 43.48% 1,359 6.86% 455 2.30%

And now where the BC Conservative affiliation was on the ballot
Coquitlam Burke Mountain

Liberals NDP Green BCCP
8,868 50.72% 6,420 36.72% 1,010 5.78% 941 5.78%
Port Coquitlam

Liberals NDP Green BCCP
7,412 36.86% 10,588 52.65% 0 0.00% 1,377 6.85%
New Westminster - Former Conservative MP Paul Forseth ran for the Conservatives here.

Liberals NDP Green BCCP
8,030 33.90% 11,464 48.39% 1,938 8.18% 1,147 4.84%

Christine Clarke ran a year ago for the BC Conservatives in the Port Moody by-election so had a campaign team and some name recognition in the area, I would expect here to do better

The results for the two candidates that were formally on the ballot as BC Conservatives had results almost as good as the results for Christive Clark and much better results than Wayne Marklund.

We then have the two Maple Ridge Ridings
Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows where Mike Patras ran

Liberals NDP Green Non-Afil BCCP
9,860 45.79% 9,179 42.63% 1,953 9.07% 540 2.51%
Maple Ridge Mission - Conservative candidate Chad Thompson

Liberals NDP Green BCCP
9,408 46.65% 8,032 39.82% 1,654 8.20% 1,075 5.33%

The BC Conservative affliatated candidate did significantly better even though in my opinion Mike Patras ran a stronger campaign than Chad Thompson

Then we have the Westside of Vancouver
Vancouver Quilchena where Bill Clarke ran

Liberals NDP Green Non-Afil BCCP
13,302 64.74% 5,078 25.32% 1,426 7.08% 593 2.95%
Vancouver False Creek were dropped BCCP candidate Ian Toothill ran

Liberals NDP Green Dropped BCCP
9,407 51.87% 6,764 37.29% 1,644 9.06% 180 0.99%

Vancouver West End where dropped BCCP candidate Ron Herbert ran

Liberals NDP Green Dropped BCCP
4,818 28.19% 9,776 57.20% 1,897 11.10% 122 0.71%

Ridings with Conservative on the ballot:
Vancouver Point Grey

Liberals NDP Green BCCP
9,377 43.63% 10,162 47.28% 1,431 6.66% 345 1.61%
Vancouver Langara

Liberals NDP Green BCCP
9,365 53.04% 6,727 38.10% 916 5.19% 607 3.44%
Vancouver Fraserview

Liberals NDP Green BCCP
9,127 47.19% 8 ,581 44.37% 1,053 5.44% 578 2.99%

In this case I can not see any clear pattern that shows the BC Conservative name on the ballot made much difference since all six of these candidates had such dismal results. I would expect Bill Clarke to do somewhat better because he was the MP for the area for the PCs from 1972 to 1984

The BC Conservative results overall for these 11 Conservative candidates and two dropped candidates are very low, but the the pattern I can see is that the BC Conservative name pushed the candidates up a bit. With BC Conserative on the ballot the average result was 4.41%, without it was 3.71% for the four unaffiliated but still connected and 2.75% when you look at the two dropped candidates that still ran.

I wish I had more data points to work with, this is a very small sample and is effected by the fact that two of the candidates without Conservative on the ballot should have been among the best results for the BC Conservatives. I do not think this data can be used to make any predictions on future results with any accuracy.

Comparing results in various Victoria area ridings in 2013, 2009 and 2005

2013-05-15T19:36:00.000-07:00

These results are comparing the vote before the absentee and other special ballots are considered in this election and past elections. These ballots, which are likely to number between 1,000 and 2,000 in each of the ridings, will be counted on May 27th. They are not likely to change the outcome though might have the potential in Saanich North and the Islands.

In looking at the results, in this region the Greens took vote almost in equal proportions from the NDP and the Liberals. In the strongest three Green races the party took an almost equal number of votes from the NDP and Liberals. Vote splitting is not going on here.

CRD Results overall

Elect. Vote NDP Liberals Greens
2013 161,938 60,775 37.53% 46,188 28.52% 42,601 26.31%
2009 158,042 80,696 51.06% 58,695 37.14% 17,969 11.37%

Oak Bay Gordon Head - Green gain from the Liberals
Elect. Vote NDP Liberals Greens Others
2013 23,953 6,772 28.27% 7,124 29.74% 9,602 40.09% 455 1.90%
2009 24,154 10,736 44.45% 11,266 44.79% 2,152 8.91%
2005 27,012 11,430 42.15% 12,911 47.80% 2,232 8.26% 439 1.63%

Total special ballots in 2009 1,369 and in 2005 1,280

Andrew Weaver pulled almost evenly from the NDP and the Liberals. If the NDP could have managed to get their identified vote from 2009 and 2005 out to vote, they would have won.

He also won convincingly. I put this down to one major factor I saw in few other places, a large team of active volunteers.

Victoria Beacon Hill - NDP hold
Elect. vote NDP Liberals Greens Other
2013 23,285 11,335 48.68% 3,981 17.10% 7,852 33.72% 117 0.50%
2009 22,649 12,592 55.60% 5,998 26.48% 3,768 16.64% 291 1.28%
2005  26,322 15,064 57.21% 8,091 30.73% 2,783 10.57% 394 1.50%

In 2009 there were 1,551 special ballots cast and in 2005 there were 1,863

What I think we can take from this is that Jane Sterk gained more from the Liberals than the NDP. A bit more strategic voting from BC Liberals and a higher turn out and the results would have be different.

Karen Bill is the only Liberal in BC to finish in third place.

Saanich North and the Islands - NDP gain from the Liberals
Elect. Vote NDP Liberals Greens Others
2013 29,171 9,681 33.19% 9,629 33.01% 9,294 31.86% 567 1.94%
2009 27,668 12,129 43.84% 12,526 45.27% 3,013 10.89%
2005 30,143 11,265 37.37% 13,265 44.01% 4,557 15.12% 1,056 3.50%

Total special ballots in 2009 1,569 and in 2005 1,418

Once again the Greens pulled almost evenly from the Liberals and NDP though slightly more from the Liberals in this case.

Victoria Swan Lake - NDP hold (Victoria Hillside in 2005)
Elect. Vote NDP Liberals Greens Others
2013 19,902 10,891 54.72% 4,509 22.66% 4,502 22.62%
2009 20,467 12,389 60.53% 5,456 26.66% 2,459 12.01% 163 0.80%
2005 22,505 12,847 57.09% 7,042 31.29% 2,657 11.81% 480 2.13%

Total special ballots in 2009 1,208 and in 2005 1,927

Greens took slightly more from the NDP than the Liberals. An interesting thing to note, the gap between the NDP and the Greens in this election is smaller than the gap in Oak Bay Gordon Head.

Saanich South - NDP Hold
Elect. Vote NDP Liberals Greens Others
2013 23,829 10,824 45.42% 8,473 35.56% 3,612 15.16% 920 3.86%
2009 23,650 11,134 47.08% 10,727 45.36% 1,561 6.60% 228 0.96%
2005 26,720 12,809 47.94% 11,958 44.75% 1,902 7.12% 565 2.11%

Total special ballots in 2009 1,161 and in 2005 1,078

In this riding the Liberals dropped more than the NDP.

Esquimalt Royal Roads - NDP Hold - the riding changed too much to allow a comparison to 2005

Elect. Vote NDP Liberals Greens Others
2013 20,760 9,997 48.16% 5,959 28.70% 4,486 21.61% 318 1.53%
2009 20,176 10,708 53.07% 6,098 30.22% 3,370 16.70%

Total special ballots in 2009 1,581

Here the drift seems to be from the NDP to the Greens, though nothing dramatic.

Juan de Fuca - NDP Hold - the riding has changed too much to allow a comparison to 2005

Elect. Vote NDP Liberals Greens
2013 21,038 11,272 53.58% 6,513 30.96% 3,253 15.46%
2009 19,278 11,008 57.10% 6,624 34.36% 1,646 8.54%

Total special ballots in 2009 857

John Horgan is the only New Democrat to increase his vote in this region. At the same time the Greens doubled their vote. I do not see any strong drain from the NDP to the Greens in this riding.

When you look at the CRD overall there is no evidence that Greens are more of a threat to the NDP than the Liberals. There is also clear evidence that the Greens have the capacity to win more than one seat here in 2017. I think a well run Green campaign with enough volunteers could win four or five seats in 2017. Certainly I would be surprised of the Greens took any less than three. In this election only one of the Green candidates had a full slate of volunteers.

Looking at voting splitting in 5 Interior Ridings

2013-05-15T18:13:00.001-07:00

I am looking the election day results this time compared to 2009, 2005 and 2001 There are still some 150,000 or so special ballots to be counted on May 27th. There are a couple of ridings where this might make a difference in BC but unlikely.

I am looking at five ridings the BC Liberals won this election to see if there any interesting patterns. Note that only 2013 and 2009 are one set of  boundaries and 2005 and 2001 are another.

What I find interesting in looking at this data is that whole idea of vote splitting is not going anywhere in the numbers I am looking at. If the Greens are a problem for the NDP, they should have done better in a number of the following races.

Kootenay East - Liberal Hold - held by Bill Bennett since 2001(called Kootenay East in 2001 and 2005)
Elect Vote NDP Liberals Green BCCP/Unity
2013 14,887 5,463 36.70% 9,424 63.20%
2009 15,531 5,516 35.52% 7,973 51.34% 506 3.26% 1,536 9.89%
2005 15,855 6,939 43.77% 7,618 48.05% 1,298 8.19%
2001 15,793 3,502 22.17% 9,771 61.87% 1,229 7.78% 621 3.93%

Total special ballots in 2009 - 878 in 2005 - 933 in 2001 - 707

This riding should clearly show to people that the NDP is not the natural home for the Greens. The NDP vote did not rise in this election even though there was no Green candidate. Even in 2009 with BC Conservative leader Wilf Hanni running in the riding and a dramatic drop in the Green vote, the NDP vote not only did not rise, it fell.

The Green vote was consistent from 2001 to 2005 even though the NDP vote rose dramatically

Peace River North - Liberal Hold - held by Patt Pimm since 2009
Other in 2013 is a BC Conservative, in 2009 and 2005 it was a Green

Elect Vote NDP Liberals Ind Other
2013 11,816 1,116 9.44% 6,809 57.63% 3,021 25.57% 870 7.36%
2009 8,315 1,139 13.70% 3,617 43.50% 2,657 31.95% 902 10.85%
2005 8,768 2,375 27.09% 5,223 59.57% 578 6.59% 592 6.75%

Total special ballots in 2009 - 937 in 2005 - 492

This riding is mainly interesting because Arthur Hadland with half a campaign in 2009 came within 1,000 votes of Pat Pimm. This time around he ran a full campaign and he did increase his vote by almost 400 but the vote for the Liberals skyrocketed by close to 3,200. The turn out in Peace River North hit an all time record for voters and had one of their best percentages as well, though still likely to be much better than 50%

Fraser Nicola - Liberal Gain - was held by Harry Lali of the NDP from 2005 to 2013 and from 1991 to 2001 Harry did not run in the 2001 election (in 2005 this was Yale-Lillooet and included Hope and the Similkameen but did not incluide Cache Creek, Ashcroft, Clinton or Savona)

Elect Vote NDP Liberals Green Other(BCCP 2013)
2013 12,330 4,785 38.81% 5,539 44.92% 1,174 9.52% 832 6.75%
2009 12,817 6,275 48.96% 5,494 42.86% 834 6.51% 214 1.67%
2005 16,689 8,137 48.76% 6,734 40.35% 1,529 9.16% 289 1.73%
2001 15,984 2,743 17.16% 9,636 60.29% 1,126 7.04% 1,983 12.41%

Total special ballots in 2009 - 830 in 2005 - 553 in 2001 - 404

So is this a place the NDP can claim the Greens split the vote? Not really. The Liberals had a Conservative to content with that took 832 votes meanwhile the Green vote only rose by 340 votes meaning by all vote splitting logic the Liberals should have suffered not the NDP.

You can also see in 2005 the dramatic comeback of the NDP and the Green vote increased as well. Harry Lali was elected in 2005 without the Greens.

Kamloops North Thompson - Liberal Hold - held since 2009 by Terry Lake - In 2013 there were 420 other other votes, in 2009 324 in 2005 302 and in 2001 970

Elect Vote NDP Liberals Green BCCP/Unity
2013 21,312 8,277 38.84% 11,080 51.99% 0 0.00% 1,535 7.20%
2009 19,808 8,798 44.42% 9,351 47.21% 1,317 6.65%
2005 23,196 9,264 43.47% 11,228 48.40% 1,608 6.93% 764 3.29%
2001 20,899 2,985 14.28% 12,128 58.03% 2,985 14.28% 790 3.78%

Total special ballots in 2009 - 1135 in 2005 - 492 in 2001 - 941

In 2013 in Kamloops we had no Green candidate but there was a Conservative candidate. The 1,317 Green votes from 2009 did not go to the NDP in 2013. The NDP vote was done. Meanwhile even though there was a BC Conservative candidate taking 1,535 votes the BC Liberal vote rose

Kamloops South Thompson Liberal Hold - Todd Stone elected for the first time - NDP ran their 2009 candidate Tom Friedman again This was called Kamloops in 2005 In 2013 others took 377,

Elect Vote NDP Liberals Green BCCP/Unity
2013 23,353 8,095 34.66% 13,439 57.55% 0 0.00% 1,442 6.17%
2009 21,997 7,640 34.73% 11,917 54.18% 1,403 6.38% 1,037 4.71%
2005 22,665 9,418 41.55% 10,852 47.88% 1,632 7.20% 763 3.37%
2001 19,289 4,389 22.75% 12,258 63.55% 2,180 11.30% 407 2.11%

Total special ballots in 2009 - 1302 in 2005 - 1002 in 2001 - 1,071

Here again we can see that the NDP does not gain much in this election even though there is no Green candidate.   The big gains were made by the BC Liberals through getting more people to vote.

Overall the Greens and BC Conservatives seem to have little or no impact on the votes of the NDP or the Liberals in this election. Vote splitting does not exist in reality.

The NDP need to look at their own ground campaigns and ask why they did not have the 300+ volunteers needed to properly canvas a riding and get the vote out. It is not the fault of Greens if people are unwilling to actively work on NDP campaigns. It is also not the fault of the Greens if the NDP runs a campaign that is lackluster and without any real vision. To run a positive campaign you need to engage people's hope. As Jane Sterk pointed out, a $20 a month increase in welfare is hardly a visionary approach.

9 Incumbent MLAs were defeated

2013-05-15T14:01:00.000-07:00

Two of the independents running for re-election

Bob Simpson Cariboo North
John van Dongen Abbotsford South

Four MLAs in 2009 and running again for their party were defeated

Harry Lali NDP Fraser Nicola
Jagrup Brar NDP Surrey Fleetwood
Margaret MacDiarmid Liberal Vancouver Fairview
Ida Chong Liberal Oak Bay Gordon Head

All three MLAs elected in by-elections in the last parliament were all defeated

Gwen O'Mahony NDP Chilliwack Hope
Joe Trasolini NDP Port Moody Coquitlam
Christy Clark Liberal Vancover Point Grey

This is seven more than in 2009

Labrador By-Election - a good Liberal win but not a sign of Conservative Weakness

2013-05-14T12:30:00.000-07:00

Labrador has seen eight general elections and three by-elections since it has existed as a riding unto itself. In 11 elections only once, 2011, has it not been won by the Liberals.

I had expected to see the Liberals take 60% of the vote give that they had Yvonne Jones as their candidate. She has been a very popular MHA for her part of Labrador and I thought this would mean a significant increase in her vote.

I also thought that Penashue would have seen a significant fall in his vote, he only lost 600 votes over all. I am not sure what the motivation was for people to want to re-elect Penashue, but he obviously has some sort of decent following.

With 5,814 votes, the Liberals did not really preform all that well when you look at the history of their vote in Labrardor. Here is the history of the election results

Election Liberal Conservative NDP Others total
2013by 5,814 48.2% 3,922 32.5% 2,273 18.9% 50 0.4% 12,059
2011 4,177 39.1% 4,526 39.8% 2,120 19.8% 139 1.3% 10,744
2008 5,426 70.3% 615 7.8% 1,378 17.9% 302 3.9% 7,787
2006by 5,768 50.5% 4,528 39.7% 1,037 9.1% 82 0.7% 11,467
2005 5,438 51.5% 3,415 32.3% 1,045 9.9% 666 6.5% 10,564
2004 5,524 62.2% 1,400 15.8% 856 9.6% 1,097 12.4% 8,877
2000 7,153 69.0% 1,254 12.1% 1,284 12.4% 677 6.5% 10,368
1997 6,182 50.6% 842 6.9% 4,615 37.8% 573 4.7% 12,212
1996by 4,032 40.5% 3,027 30.4% 1,974 19.8% 730 9.3% 9,963
1993 8,724 77.1% 2,146 19.0% 444 3.9% 0 0.0% 11,314
1988 7,126 53.5% 4,400 33.0% 1,508 11.3% 286 2.2% 13,320

The NDP should be mildly happy, even with Yvonne Jones as their candidate and Justin Trudeau as leader, the Liberals did not get the NDP vote to collapse, in fact the NDP increased their raw vote.

With the right candidate there is no reason to consider either the NDP nor the Conservatives to be out of the race in this riding in the next general election.

Full listing of advance vote comparing 2009 and 2013

2013-05-13T17:13:00.001-07:00

This is a table ranked by voter turnout at the 2013 advance polls.

Totals in the 2nd and 3rd columns are the total advance vote. Columns 4 and 5 are the total registered voters. The final column is how much the total turnout percentage increased or decreased from 2009

	2009 total	2013 total	2009 Voters	2013 Voters	2009 turnout	2013 turnout	Change
Saanich North and the Islands	6682	8465	43651	44980	15.31%	18.82%	3.51%
Comox Valley	6825	8109	47772	49503	14.29%	16.38%	2.09%
Parksville-Qualicum	5865	7911	40339	42280	14.54%	18.71%	4.17%
Vernon-Monashee	4868	6817	44961	46322	10.83%	14.72%	3.89%
Vancouver-Fairview	4668	6577	40897	44362	11.41%	14.83%	3.41%
Cowichan Valley	5456	6552	40859	42312	13.35%	15.48%	2.13%
Oak Bay-Gordon Head	5215	6481	38206	37443	13.65%	17.31%	3.66%
Penticton	4883	6475	41593	42651	11.74%	15.18%	3.44%
Victoria-Beacon Hill	3699	5968	42046	43521	8.80%	13.71%	4.92%
Vancouver-Point Grey	4379	5901	40605	39988	10.78%	14.76%	3.97%
Surrey-White Rock	5189	5895	39293	39796	13.21%	14.81%	1.61%
Juan de Fuca	4121	5770	33063	39270	12.46%	14.69%	2.23%
Vancouver-Quilchena	5077	5748	38590	37501	13.16%	15.33%	2.17%
Esquimalt-Royal Roads	4590	5735	36932	38638	12.43%	14.84%	2.41%
Vancouver-West End	4112	5729	35064	36978	11.73%	15.49%	3.77%
Surrey-Cloverdale	2847	5655	39556	51811	7.20%	10.91%	3.72%
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	4441	5623	35564	36976	12.49%	15.21%	2.72%
Kelowna-Lake Country	3935	5573	41588	44610	9.46%	12.49%	3.03%
West Vancouver-Capilano	4514	5529	38938	38794	11.59%	14.25%	2.66%
Shuswap	4737	5498	39949	40475	11.86%	13.58%	1.73%
Vancouver-False Creek	3316	5459	33322	42232	9.95%	12.93%	2.97%
North Vancouver-Seymour	4258	5430	36671	38055	11.61%	14.27%	2.66%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale	3311	5412	37398	39633	8.85%	13.66%	4.80%
New Westminster	4637	5242	42086	46178	11.02%	11.35%	0.33%
Kelowna-Mission	4319	5153	41927	44671	10.30%	11.54%	1.23%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows	3994	5004	36351	39378	10.99%	12.71%	1.72%
Vancouver-Fraserview	3438	4993	37525	39067	9.16%	12.78%	3.62%
Kootenay East	4374	4860	28909	30224	15.13%	16.08%	0.95%
Chilliwack-Hope	2884	4832	32180	35237	8.96%	13.71%	4.75%
Nanaimo-North Cowichan	4064	4821	38178	40230	10.64%	11.98%	1.34%
Vancouver-Langara	3651	4775	37606	38225	9.71%	12.49%	2.78%
Boundary-Similkameen	4303	4774	27942	28817	15.40%	16.57%	1.17%
Delta South	4260	4745	33818	34473	12.60%	13.76%	1.17%
Kamloops-South Thompson	3897	4708	40197	41593	9.69%	11.32%	1.62%
Langley	3528	4682	42410	45610	8.32%	10.27%	1.95%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain	2889	4669	30994	36473	9.32%	12.80%	3.48%
North Island	4211	4652	39310	40514	10.71%	11.48%	0.77%
Westside-Kelowna	3777	4649	40675	44830	9.29%	10.37%	1.08%
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant	2676	4612	37300	41446	7.17%	11.13%	3.95%
Kamloops-North Thompson	3337	4560	37533	39857	8.89%	11.44%	2.55%
Surrey-Panorama	3667	4549	37932	44477	9.67%	10.23%	0.56%
Richmond Centre	3165	4526	41800	43387	7.57%	10.43%	2.86%
Surrey-Newton	3282	4477	29946	32557	10.96%	13.75%	2.79%
Abbotsford West	2529	4441	34063	31401	7.42%	14.14%	6.72%
Prince George-Mackenzie	3163	4370	32523	32877	9.73%	13.29%	3.57%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky	3180	4344	34318	36949	9.27%	11.76%	2.49%
Coquitlam-Maillardville	3593	4250	36887	38057	9.74%	11.17%	1.43%
Burnaby North	3070	4173	35188	40604	8.72%	10.28%	1.55%
Victoria-Swan Lake	3340	4157	37881	38623	8.82%	10.76%	1.95%
Alberni-Pacific Rim	3616	4141	30278	31178	11.94%	13.28%	1.34%
Richmond-Steveston	3256	4104	41951	42098	7.76%	9.75%	1.99%
Port Moody-Coquitlam	3137	4078	33000	35281	9.51%	11.56%	2.05%
Fort Langley-Aldergrove	3066	3962	42591	47423	7.20%	8.35%	1.16%
Maple Ridge-Mission	2826	3882	34807	37982	8.12%	10.22%	2.10%
Surrey-Fleetwood	4203	3879	32356	34950	12.99%	11.10%	-1.89%
Burnaby-Edmonds	2662	3875	34040	36598	7.82%	10.59%	2.77%
Saanich South	3334	3874	37044	38685	9.00%	10.01%	1.01%
Chilliwack	3021	3848	35830	37145	8.43%	10.36%	1.93%
Vancouver-Kingsway	2200	3813	35518	37346	6.19%	10.21%	4.02%
Surrey-Tynehead	2337	3694	33481	36240	6.98%	10.19%	3.21%
Delta North	3454	3689	34478	35528	10.02%	10.38%	0.37%
Burnaby-Lougheed	2989	3653	33826	35754	8.84%	10.22%	1.38%
Abbotsford South	3091	3625	30473	35657	10.14%	10.17%	0.02%
Nanaimo	3698	3565	38942	40010	9.50%	8.91%	-0.59%
Prince George-Valemount	2728	3517	34212	34877	7.97%	10.08%	2.11%
Columbia River-Revelstoke	2890	3437	23512	24467	12.29%	14.05%	1.76%
Port Coquitlam	3191	3384	36579	38458	8.72%	8.80%	0.08%
Nelson-Creston	2546	3374	26907	27672	9.46%	12.19%	2.73%
Vancouver-Hastings	2118	3324	38356	39822	5.52%	8.35%	2.83%
Cariboo-Chilcotin	3177	3299	23090	20926	13.76%	15.77%	2.01%
Cariboo North	2916	3273	19982	23375	14.59%	14.00%	-0.59%
Fraser-Nicola	2955	3224	20575	21363	14.36%	15.09%	0.73%
Burnaby-Deer Lake	3305	3085	37854	35062	8.73%	8.80%	0.07%
Abbotsford-Mission	1862	3049	33678	35989	5.53%	8.47%	2.94%
Richmond East	2522	3014	40796	44469	6.18%	6.78%	0.60%
Vancouver-Kensington	2193	2984	36090	38016	6.08%	7.85%	1.77%
Peace River North	1982	2933	22577	24854	8.78%	11.80%	3.02%
Surrey-Whalley	2300	2901	32918	36498	6.99%	7.95%	0.96%
Surrey-Green Timbers	2352	2650	29049	30571	8.10%	8.67%	0.57%
Skeena	2210	2530	20662	20645	10.70%	12.25%	1.56%
Kootenay West	2519	2528	30380	31290	8.29%	8.08%	-0.21%
Nechako Lakes	1564	2028	15647	16270	10.00%	12.46%	2.47%
Peace River South	1429	1883	16971	18066	8.42%	10.42%	2.00%
Stikine	1831	1659	12291	13219	14.90%	12.55%	-2.35%
North Coast	1810	1653	15098	14956	11.99%	11.05%	-0.94%

Advance Voter Turnout Stats

2013-05-13T15:34:00.000-07:00

Top vote turnouts

Saanich North + Islands 18.82%
Parksville Qaulicum 18.71%
Oak Bay Gordon Head 17.31%
Boundary Similkameen 16.57%
Comox Valley 16.38%
Kootenay East 16.08%
Cariboo Chilcotin 15.77%
Vancouver West End 15.49%
Cowichan Valley 15.48%
Vancouver Quilchena 15.33%

Lowest turnouts
Richmond East 6.78%
Vancouver Kensington 7.85%
Surrey Whalley 7.95%
Kootenay West 8.08%
Vancouver Hastings 8.35%
Fort Langley Aldergrove 8.35%
Abbotsford Mission 8.47%
Surrey Green Timbers 8.67%
Burnaby Deer Lake 8.80%
Port Coquitlam 8.80%

Biggest Increases in Percentage turnout
Abbotsford West 6.72
Victoria Beacon Hill 4.92
North Vancouver Lonsdale 4.80
Chilliwack Hope 4.75
Parksville Qualicum 4.17
Vancouver Kingsway 4.02
Vancouver Point Grey 3.97
Vancouver Mount Pleasant 3.95
Vernon Monashee 3.89
Vancouver West End 3.77

Drops in advance voter turnout
Stikine -2.35
Surrey Fleetwood -1.89
North Coast -0.94
Cariboo North -0.59
Nanaimo -0.59
Kootenay West -0.21

I am not scared of an NDP government, I am resigned to it

2013-05-12T18:38:00.000-07:00

I look at the NDP campaign I do not see a party that really gets the scale of crisis we are in terms of the civil service. I also do not see a party with any sort of a bold vision. I do not see a party willing to address climate change. I do not see party that will address aboriginal title and rights. I am not convinced they are willing to consider the sort of innovative thinking required to deal with problems in health or education.

I think we could be leaders in many areas of governance but it feels like the NDP is mainly going to reinforce the status quo

I do not expect sweetheart deals for the public sector unions, I do not expect any radical change to oil and gas, I do not expect NSR lands to be planted. I really expect very little

On the other hand I think the NDP will likely be a workmanlike government and not really screw up. Most people learn more from their mistakes than they do from their successes. Adrian Dix, John Horgan, Harry Lali, Mike Farnworth, Leonard Krog, Sue Hammell and Jenny Kwan we all around for the 1991-2001 NDP government, they have learned and that alone makes the coming NDP government different than when they came to power in 1972 or 1991.

I expect the finances to be moderately well run but I do not expect us to have any real discussion about taxes - which taxes should be levying and now high? We do not collect enough revenues in BC to cover the costs of the government that we need. We need to talk about what government should be doing and how to do it the best but that requires talking taxes and being willing to consider higher taxes.

I will be moderately happy if the NDP does follow through with electoral finance reform and places restrictions on government advertising. I hope that the NDP will allow for the legislature to sit for more days and allow the legislative committees to actually do work. I have no expectation that we will see a reduction in power from of the executive and I find that depressing.

I do expect the NDP to be better at day to day governing that what we have seen with the BC Liberals under Christy Clark. For the last two years we have seen a government without a core mission trying to figure out what might be popular or what might make the opposition look unpopular.

My hope in this election rests with the independents Greens and Conservatives. If we have enough of them elected they could push the incoming NDP government to try harder and maybe do something bold and inspirational.

If the NDP and Liberals do not excite you, try doing something different

2013-05-12T16:13:00.001-07:00

I do not know anyone other than hardcore partisans that are excited by the NDP or the Liberals. It is unfortunate that many people are going to a choice on Tuesday that is one they are not excited. When we vote we should be hopeful for the future. Voting for the lesser of two evils is not a way for us to get a better quality of government.

If you are not happy with the NDP or the Liberals, do something different. There are other choices on the ballot, people that are worth voting for. No incoming government is ever going to so bad that in four years the world will come to an end. Doing something different, voting for someone other than the NDP and Liberals, will not doom us but if enough people do it might break the political paradigm we have lived with since 1975 in BC.

I will not be voting for the NDP or the Liberals in this election but the Greens. I happen to live in a riding where both the New Democrat and Liberal are good choices but I am not impressed with the NDP or Liberal campaigns. I am voting for the Green locally because I think he is a good candidate. I am also voting Green because I think there needs to be a change in BC politics that breaks the left/right paradigm. I want more diversity in our legislature, I want to see MLAs there who are more concerned about keeping the government honest than being the government. As long as all we have is the government caucus and the government in waiting caucus we are not going to have the full debate we deserve,

If more and more of us act with hope and a long term desire for better government, we will get there but the first step is to make a different choice on election day. Trying voting for something than the normal left/right choices.