Playoff Guru

We Have Moved!

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 28 Aug 2015 18:01:00 +0000

BCS Guru was a mainstay of the Bowl Championship Series era. Launched in 2006, we were the premier projection site for the weekly BCS standings. Because of our unmatched accuracy, we became the go-to site for every college football fan who wanted to know what the standings would look like before they were officially released.

But all that came to an end after the 2013 season, when the BCS was replaced by the four-team College Football Playoff. We rebranded as the Playoff Guru, but because of the nature of the selection committee, we soon realized that our model needed to evolve.

So we're now College Football Exchange, where we feature the best college football content posted on the World Wide Web. Of course, we will provide our unique analysis, but our horizon is now considerably broadened. We're making our debut in time for the 2015 season, but please pardon our dust as we get our shop in order.

Thank you for your continued support. For now our Twitter handle remains @ThePlayoffGuru until further notice.

Samuel Chi
Proprietor
College Football Exchange

College Football's Grad Transfer Market Frenzy

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 21 May 2015 18:08:00 +0000

College football now has a true free agency market, as players can move freely from one FBS team to another without having to sit out a season per NCAA rules. The graduate transfer rule has been a godsend for teams in desperate need for a quick fix.

And it's of little surprise that the graduate transfer market is dominated by quarterbacks. There are two simple reasons for this: 1) Quarterbacks, generally the smartest guys on the field, are most likely to graduate in four years or even a semester or two early, to take advantage of the rule. 2) An upperclassman quarterback with playing experience is much more likely to immediately help a team than a player at any other position.

The graduate transfer rule actually has been around since 2006, but in its first five seasons only 11 quarterbacks took advantage of it. That all changed after 2011, when Russell Wilson, who had a mostly pedestrian career at N.C. State, led Wisconsin to the Big Ten title after finishing his college career as a Badger. After that, the grad transfer market boomed.

After Wilson, who since went on to lead the Seattle Seahawks to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, a flurry of quarterbacks took advantage of the rule and jumped ships. Last season alone 15 quarterbacks went to new schools and played immediately, and five of them led their respective teams to bowl appearances.

This year's market isn't as busy but is more intriguing because of the presence of big names that are available. Everett Golson, who led Notre Dame to the 2012 BCS Championship Game, just landed at Florida State this week and will be vying for the job to replace Jameis Winston. Jake Rudock, Iowa's former starting QB, jumped at a chance to play for Michigan's new coach Jim Harbaugh. Jeff Driskel, the face of the ill-fated Will Muschamp regime at Florida, has landed at Louisiana Tech.

But the most intriguing free agent is still on the market. Braxton Miller still has a couple of months to decide whether he wants to return to Ohio State or go lead another program in 2015. Miller was a preseason Heisman candidate in 2014 before a shoulder injury in camp force him to miss the entire season. He has since been usurped by both J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones, who led the Buckeyes to the inaugural College Football Playoff championship. Would Miller, who already graduated, return to Ohio State to be merely the, gasp, third stringer?

So far, Miller has decided to stay put, as did Stanford's Kevin Hogan. But the transfer window remains open all the way until fall camp in August and more than a handful of quarterbacks are still deciding their destinations.

The question, then, must be asked. Does a grad transfer QB really help a program?

A former starting quarterback takes advantage of the grad transfer rule typically for two reasons: 1) He lost his job either because of injury, substandard performance or disagreement with his coaches; 2) He's not good enough to be a high draft pick in the NFL.

Of all the grad transfer quarterbacks since the rule was enacted, only Wilson has had any kind of an NFL career. And he was only a third-round pick and not nearly as highly-regarded coming into the draft as fellow QBs Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill.

Since a grad transfer QB typically only has a year (at most two) of eligibility left, he can't be anything more than a quick fix. Most of the time, it's a bridge-the-gap situation where a coach isn't quite willing to trust a true freshman or a former backup with little playing experience.

Some of the quarterbacks did post respectable numbers and led their teams to winning seasons:

- Ben Mauk led Cincinnati to a 10-3 record in 2007 after transferring from Wake Forest
- Tyler Murphy led Boston College to a 7-6 record in 2014 after transferring from Florida
- Clint Trickett actually started 18 games over two seasons (2013-14) at West Virginia after transferring from Florida State

Those are exceptions, however, as many more grad transfers failed to pan out. Some managed to help torpedoing an already floundering program (Dayne Crist, Notre Dame to Kansas; Drew Allen, Oklahoma to Syracuse) while others simply failed to win the job even against mediocre competition (Danny O'Brien, Maryland to Wisconsin; Jake Heaps, Kansas to Miami).

This season promises to bring more scrutiny to the grad transfer QB market simply because of the presence of household names at marquee programs. Besides Golson, Rudock, Driskel and possibly Miller, there's still Jacob Coker, who left FSU to go to Alabama last season only to lose out to Blake Sims. He's back for his final year of eligibility to fight for the right to start for Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin.

But the rule appears here to stay despite some new opposition within the ranks of college administrators. The NCAA, already under siege from multiple lawsuits challenging its authority, can ill afford to rescind whatever little freedom it's granted the student-athletes.

And coaches, being what they are, will try to exploit every rule to their advantage, so the grad transfer market will only become more popular even given its so-far pretty paltry output. They should just heed this warning: Buyer Beware.

What NFL Draft Says About 2015 Season

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 06 May 2015 18:19:00 +0000

The NFL draft is all about procuring the best talent from college football. And what happens at the draft tells so much about not just the past college football season, but the upcoming one as well.

Granted, the best college football players don't always turn out to be great pros and some Canton enshrinees had very pedestrian college careers. But taken with totality through history, the NFL draft provides a very good indication on the relative strength of college football conferences and programs. You don't win championships -- at any level -- without talent.

So it should come as no surprise that for the ninth year in a row, the SEC led all conferences in total draft picks. This not so coincidentally mirrored the SEC's dominance in college football. In those nine years, the SEC won seven consecutive BCS titles (from 2006-2012) before finally vacating the perch the past two seasons.

But the SEC's two-year national title drought may not be coming to an end this next season, and that's among several interesting revelations from the 2015 NFL draft:

1. The SEC's talent advantage is shrinking

Despite leading all conferences with 54 players taken in the draft, the SEC got there not so much with top-end talent but with many second-day role players who may or may not make it on the Opening Day roster. The Pac-12 and the ACC had more first-round picks (nine each) than the SEC. And the Pac-12 led all conferences with 25 picks in the first three rounds, three more than the SEC. (And keep in mind that the Pac-12 has two fewer programs than the SEC's 14.)

Using the methodology Draftpoints, with draftees weighted based on where they were selected, only four SEC schools were ranked in the top 15, topped by Florida at No. 4. That the Gators grossly underachieved despite considerable talent under Will Muschamp is no secret -- and hence why he was canned after four years. But overall the SEC just isn't consistently recruiting and developing the best players as it did in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

This trend is expected to continue and therefore it would not at all be a surprise if the SEC fails to win the national title for a third straight year and miss out on the championship game for a second consecutive season.

2. Florida State has a rough road ahead

First, let's just acknowledge that the Seminoles' two-year run of 27-1, with one national title and another national semifinal appearance, was no fluke. FSU led all schools with 11 draftees, including the top pick quarterback Jameis Winston, and dwarfed everyone in the aforementioned Draftpoints system.

And not only just that the Seminoles were as good as advertised, they actually dominated a conference that was considerably underrated by college football pundits. The ACC finished second overall to the SEC with 47 total draftees and tied with the Pac-12 with nine first-rounders. The top three schools according to Draftpoints all came from the ACC - FSU, Miami and Louisville -- with Clemson checking in at No. 12.

The bad news for the Seminoles here, of course, is that most of Jimbo Fisher's great hauls in 2011 and '12 is gone and there's a daunting rebuilding project ahead. Never mind replacing Winston at quarterback, Fisher will have to find replacements for nearly half of his starting lineup in 2015.

3. TCU and Baylor will dominate a weak Big 12

Neither TCU nor Baylor made the inaugural College Football Playoff field despite finishing as co-champions of the Big 12. While not having a conference title game was a factor, that they dominated a soft conference didn't help, either.

Both TCU and Baylor will have a vast majority of their starters returning, with only two players taken in the draft from each school (though one was Baylor QB Bryce Petty). But while both teams relied heavily on underclassmen last year, their Big 12 opponents clearly did not possess an abundance of talent. Only two Big 12 players were taken in the first round, seven in the first three rounds and 25 overall -- all dead last among Power 5 conferences.

The perception that the Big 12 is a weak conference surely won't be bolstered by the draft and that will influence the selection committee's decision at the season's end. Either TCU or Baylor might need to run the table to avoid another playoff snub.

4. Pac-12 is the most balanced and competitive conference

Oregon was favored to end the conference's decade-long national title drought, only to be denied by Ohio State in the national title game. But the Ducks had to battle through an absolute gauntlet as the Pac-12 has proved to be the toughest conference from top to bottom.

In the 2015 Draft, the Pac-12 led with picks in the first round and also the first three rounds (despite having two fewer teams than the SEC, ACC and Big Ten). In terms of Draftpoints, the Pac-12 placed six schools in the top 15, more than any other conference. And Arizona isn't even among them as the Wildcats didn't have a single player drafted since the bulk of their starters will return from a team that won the Pac-12 South last year and played in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Pac-12 is surging in this armed race with its old standard-bearer returning to the national championship race. USC had two first-round picks in the draft, pushing its all-time total to 79 and overall draftees to 489 -- both No. 1 in the history of NFL draft. But with the Trojans unchained from NCAA sanctions and having a full complement of scholarships for the first time in four years, they already reloaded with the nation's top-ranked recruiting class this spring.

5. Ohio State has a good chance to repeat as champions

The Big Ten had a pedestrian draft, with three first-round picks, 15 in the first three rounds and 35 overall, all placing fourth among Power 5 conferences, only ahead of the Big 12. The school that performed best in the draft is Ohio State, with five players selected, the highest being WR Devin Smith going in the second round.

This is all great news for the defending national champions, who will be shortlisted for the playoff once again.

The Buckeyes already return a team with at least 15 starters, including Heisman candidate RB Ezekiel Elliott and a trio of quarterbacks that all could be starting for another FBS program. They do not face a stiff competition in the Big Ten especially with their archrival Michigan wallowing in mediocrity. The Wolverines, though still the winningest program in college football history, just went a school-record five years without a first-round pick and has had only one first rounder since Jake Long went No. 1 overall in 2008.

Help is on the way for Michigan, though, via the NFL. Jim Harbaugh will turn the fortunes of his alma mater around and reboot the rivalry. It's just a matter of when -- but maybe not in 2015.

What Is the Real Magic Number? Try 6

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 13 Jan 2015 05:41:00 +0000

The first College Football Playoff is rightly declared a success. After Ohio State's emphatic 42-20 victory over Oregon, we can finally proclaim a national champion in college football that's more substantial than mythical.

Well, almost. TCU is still out there and a legitimate argument can be made that it was unfairly excluded. The Horned Frogs likely won't finish worse than third in the final AP Poll, maybe even getting a few votes for second.

That's why well before all the golden confetti streamed down from the rafters at Jerry Jones' football palace Monday night, there was already plenty of talk about expanding the playoff. We're only in the first year of a 12-year pact for a four-team playoff, but there's already clamoring for an eight-team playoff, or even a 16-team playoff.

It's not gonna happen. Not anytime soon. And probably not going to be eight teams and certainly never 16 teams.

College football's postseason attendance scheme is like moving small cities from place to place. Each major bowl game counts on travel and displacements of up to 50,000 people. And as this year's playoff has already proved, to make those same people take two trips are difficult and hence the empty seats at the playoff bowl games and low prices on the secondary ticket markets.

But that's not to say we'll never expand beyond four teams. In fact, there's a plausible scenario for expansion, even though it probably won't happen before the 2020 season, about halfway through the current contract.

A six-team playoff is imminently achievable and reasonable.

The biggest gripe against the current four-team playoff is that there are five power conferences. In this year's case, Big 12's co-champions TCU and Baylor were both left out. Another complaint is that within this scheme no team outside of the major conferences (and Notre Dame) would ever get a chance to play for the national title.

With six teams, all five major conference champions would be guaranteed a spot with room for one more deserving team, which could come out of the Group of Five conferences or be a non-champion of the Power Five. This would greatly reduce the burden on the selection committee as its main job becomes picking one team to add to the playoff field.

This arrangement would not dilute the meaning of the regular season but in fact enhance it. Teams would be encouraged to play tough non-conference opponents knowing that it won't hurt their chances of making the playoff as long as they win their conference. And in all probability the one at-large team in the playoff field would be one that's had a challenging schedule instead of one that's filled it with cream puffs.

As for the attendance issue, this could be easily remedied by playing the first two playoff games on campus sites, with the top two seeds earning a bye. These "quarterfinals" matching teams seeded third through sixth would be played on the Saturday after conference title games (now reserved for Army-Navy), with the winners advancing to the New Years' Six semifinal games and losers still earning a place in other NY6 bowl games.

Just as the BCS altered its format halfway through its 16-year existence by going to the double-host model that created the non-bowl championship game, the CFP can easily adopt the new six-team format without making many fundamental changes to its current scheme. Bowl pairings can still be announced on the first Sunday of December, with the New Years' Six lineup to be finalized a week later.

This idea should be embraced by the everyone in the industry. ESPN, after being astonished by the high ratings of this season's semifinal games, would love to add two more games. Bowl-game host committees can breathe easy as this doesn't further disrupt their system. University administrators probably won't have an issue with the opportunity to host an extra home game that's a guaranteed sellout.

So will the expansion happen? Yes, but it will take time. Unlike the NFL or any other professional sports leagues, college football is run by a large collection of people that includes school presidents, athletic directors, conference commissioners and TV executives. New ideas are not going on the agenda tomorrow or in the immediate future.

The next two championship game sites have been selected so for certain nothing will change before the 2017 season. Also the power brokers will want to see how things shake out for awhile before signing off on any deviation from the original plan.

But change is coming, you just need to wait a few years. And remember, six should be the magic number.

Requiem for SEC's 'Decade of Dominance'

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 05 Jan 2015 15:51:00 +0000

After the SEC's disastrous bowl season, college football's cognoscenti are all rushing to write the obituary of the conference's dominance. In fact, make that two disastrous bowl seasons.

The SEC is the only conference not to win a BCS/CFP bowl in the last two years, going 0-5. The much-acclaimed SEC West went 2-5 this bowl season, with only bottom dwellers Texas A&M and Arkansas winning their bowl games.

But could it be that this "SEC Dominance" is more myth than reality?

Sure, the SEC did win seven consecutive BCS titles. It even managed to stage the only BCS championship game featuring teams from the same conference. But did the SEC really "dominate" as much as it (and its media acolytes) say it did?

The BCS was very much an SEC creation, designed by former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer and refined by retiring SEC commissioner Mike Slive. It helped to raise the profile of an also-ran regional league devoid of major media markets into the premier conference in college football.

The SEC was assisted ably in this venture by ESPN, which now co-owns and operates the nascent SEC Network. ESPN has come to dominate college football - it owns the CFP broadcasting rights for its 12-year duration as well as all but one of the 38 bowl games this season. That the SEC's rise coincided with ESPN's growing monopoly on the sport was hardly an accident.

The key to the SEC's ascendancy was the relentless shaping of media perception. It began with Florida's 2006 campaign to dislodge Michigan for a spot in the BCS title game and has continued ever since. It crescendoed with the absurd 2011 title game featuring two SEC teams as Alabama became the first non-independent team to claim a national championship without winning its conference since 1936.

The strength of the SEC essentially became a self-perpetuating myth. Every year, SEC teams would crowd the top of the polls. When an SEC team lost to another, it didn't hurt the losing team much but it really buoyed the winning team. That was never more evident than earlier this season when Texas A&M vaulted into the top 10 after beating preseason top 10 South Carolina - both teams, as it turned out, struggled to be even bowl eligible.

A key ingredient in driving the SEC dominance narrative is its clever scheduling. It plays only eight conference games and almost always lards up the non-conference schedule with cupcakes. It also rarely ventures out of its footprint for any high-profile OOC games.

How much of an advantage does the SEC gain from scheduling? Enormously.

Not only does the SEC avoid seven additional losses by not playing a ninth conference game, it dramatically improves its teams' chances to stay up in the polls (on the top end) or gain bowl eligibility (on the bottom end). Compare the SEC's 2014 scheduling to that of the Pac-12, which plays nine conference games plus a title game - you can see how the SEC has rigged the system perfectly:

* Only three SEC teams (Georgia, Alabama and Missouri, the latter two with the help of being in the SEC title game), played 10 Power 5 opponents before the bowls. Ten Pac-12 teams played at least 10 games against Power 5 teams, the exceptions being Oregon State and Colorado.

* Power 5 teams constituted just 73 percent of all SEC regular-season opponents, as compared to 83 percent for the Pac-12.

* Add teams from the Mountain West and American, the two quality Group of 5 conferences to the scheduling mix and the contrast is even more stark. SEC teams played 78 percent of their games against Power 5 plus MWC and AAC teams; 92 percent of Pac-12 games were against Power 5 plus MWC and AAC opponents.

* All 14 SEC teams played one FCS opponents each, including six that did so in November, which worked out to be not much more than glorified scrimmages. Only eight Pac-12 teams faced FCS teams, and none after September. USC and UCLA (along with Notre Dame) are the only schools that have never played an FCS opponent in history.

The SEC played the scheduling and associated poll advantages to the hilt, resulting in basically guaranteed berths in the title game in the latter eight years of the BCS' 16-year run. The BCS standings were revamped in 2004 and from that point on, opinion polls accounted for two-thirds of the formula. With those standings in place, no team that finished either first or second in the two human polls ever not played in the BCS title game.

We'll never know if the 2007-08 USC teams, 2011 Oklahoma State, 2012 Oregon and 2013 Michigan State should've been the rightful champions. They never got to play in the BCS title games despite having the same number of losses as the SEC teams that got in. SEC teams won seven BCS titles in a row (including one all-SEC affair) but you can't win it unless you're in it.

The BCS went away after last season and just in the nick of time. Had it still been in place, Alabama would've faced Florida State in the title game and the Crimson Tide likely would've swiped their fourth title in six years. Oregon and Ohio State, two teams that would've played in a consolation Rose Bowl under BCS rules, instead will get to compete and see who's the legitimate national champion after getting a reprieve from the four-team playoff.

That the SEC will be missing from the inaugural title game in the Playoff era is actually a very good thing for college football. It helps to slowly unravel a myth and finally moves the sport into truly settling its champion on the field.

The toughest conference in college football, at least in 2014, isn't the SEC. We now know that for a fact.

SEC Is History. Duck Dynasty to Begin?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 02 Jan 2015 06:30:00 +0000

PASADENA, Calif. - They could've saved us all that trouble and just had the Rose Bowl the way it's meant to be played - Pac-12 vs. Big Ten in the Granddaddy of 'em All.

Instead, Oregon and Ohio State will face off in Jerry World, a palace built for pro football, to settle who gets the biggest prize in college football.

But the combatants in the inaugural College Football Playoff should be grateful that the BCS died a timely death. If it had been around for one more year, both the Ducks and Buckeyes would've been home watching the championship game as the the BCS standings would've matched up Alabama and Florida State instead.

Now the Jan. 12 game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, not only will settle the national championship question, it will also decide just which conference will inherit the mantle of "best conference in college football" from the dearly departed SEC.

Alabama's loss to Ohio State signaled the end of an era as the SEC will be absent from the national championship game for the first time since USC faced Texas in the Rose Bowl for the 2005 title. Each of the top five teams in the SEC West lost its bowl game after being trumpeted as the best division in college football throughout the 2014 regular season.

In contrast, the Pac-12 South actually can rightfully claim the "toughest division" moniker. Five of its six teams will finish with at least nine wins despite each facing at least 10 Power 5 opponents - more than any of their SEC West counterparts. And the best team in the Pac-12 didn't even come from this division.

That would be Oregon, which has beaten every team on its schedule, avenging its only regular-season loss by massacring South champion Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. The Ducks were even more merciless in their evisceration of Florida State, which was buried under an avalanche of second-half turnovers (five) in a 59-20 rout in the Rose Bowl.

Oregon punished FSU and Jameis Winston in a matchup featuring the last two Heisman Trophy winners. Winston lost one fumble - that was returned for a touchdown - and threw two interceptions. Oregon also converted two Dalvin Cook fumbles early in the third quarter into touchdowns and turned a close game into a mauling.

But the Ducks' blowout victory won't give the Pac-12 a long-awaited shot to dethrone the SEC, which had been the undisputed best conference in the latter part of the BCS era. Instead, in their path will be Ohio State and the Big Ten, which is rebuilding suddenly and ferociously. It all began on Tuesday when Michigan made the monster hire of Jim Harbaugh as coach and continued on New Year's Day with Michigan State rallying past Baylor in a thrilling Cotton Bowl.

But the lodestar that will guide the Big Ten's revival for now is Ohio State, which scored an unlikely 42-35 victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Buckeyes can take it a step further by snuffing out the budding Ducks dynasty as it did in the Rose Bowl after the 2009 season.

But these Ducks appear to be a better version than that team, or the 2010 team that fell to Auburn in the BCS title game on a fluke play. Heisman winner Marcus Mariota has been nearly flawless all season, throwing for 40 touchdowns, running for 15, receiving one with just three interceptions. Oregon's defense also proved to be anything but soft, allowing FSU only one second-half touchdown as Oregon scored the final 34 points of the game.

Oregon certainly hasn't missed a beat since Mark Helfrich took over from Chip Kelly, who bolted for the NFL after the 2012 season. Helfrich, 24-3 in his two seasons, knows how good his team is and declined to state just what it has proved and will prove with one more win.

"I don't know," he said after the Rose Bowl victory, laughing. "That's up to you. You guys are the geniuses in the media. We believe a ton in our deal and we believe a ton in who we are. We got a great team, great team of guys."

For much of the second half, as Oregon was completing its demolition of Florida State, Ducks fans repeatedly chanted "We Want Bama." They probably won't mind that the Crimson Tide couldn't keep the date as their conference's dominance has already fallen into the ash heap of history.

When Little Guys Still Had a Chance

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 28 Dec 2014 06:03:00 +0000

SAN DIEGO - Thirty years ago on this field, in this bowl game, BYU became the last team not from the current power five conferences to win college football's mythical national championship. We pay tribute to that occasion because something like that probably will never happen again.

The No. 1-ranked Cougars, the only unbeaten Division I-A team not to lose a game before the bowl season in 1984, were by conference rule obligated to play in the Holiday Bowl instead of a more prestigious New Year's Day bowl game. Their opponent certainly had brand recognition, but its 1984 squad was far from vintage.

The 1984 Michigan team turned out to be the only team in the Bo Schembechler era not to post a winning record. No Michigan team in fact compiled a worse record in the 30-year period between 1968-2007 after it lost to BYU in the Holiday Bowl to finish 6-6.

Even after winning the game, 24-17, BYU had to sweat it out for 12 long days. Because of their narrow victory, there was rampant speculation that the Cougars might be jumped by No. 2 Oklahoma if the one-loss Sooners could handle No. 4 Washington in the Orange Bowl. But thanks in part to the infamous Boomer Schooner incident that wiped out an OU field goal, the Huskies went on to win 28-17, handing BYU its only national title.

The Cougars swept both the AP and UPI (coaches') polls, but the legitimacy of their "undisputed" championship has been questioned ever since. It's certainly inconceivable today to believe an undefeated mid-major team would have a chance to finish No. 1, ahead of one-loss conference champions from the Pac-10 and SEC, but that's exactly what happened in 1984.

Certainly a confluence of events helped BYU's cause. One-loss Washington was relegated to the Orange Bowl because it lost head-to-head to Pac-10 co-champion USC, which won the Rose Bowl but had three losses. Florida won the SEC with a 9-1-1 record, but it was ineligible for a bowl because of NCAA sanctions and its conference title was vacated six months later. The champions from the ACC, Big Eight, Big Ten and Southwest Conference all had at least two losses.

BYU also had worked on putting itself on the map for nearly a decade. In 1984, the Cougars were playing in their seventh consecutive Holiday Bowl, having split the previous six against major-conference opponents. And along the way, they were cementing their reputation as Quarterback U by sending their record-setting passers to the NFL, one after another.

Coached by the legendary LaVell Edwards, the Cougars had their first breakthrough in the 1980 Holiday Bowl, when they rallied from a 20-point deficit with 2:33 remaining to stun SMU on a Hail Mary pass by Jim McMahon. Three years later, Steve Young threw a TD pass, ran for a TD and then caught the game-winner in a 21-17 victory over Missouri.

In the Edwards era that spanned from 1972-2000, BYU had its share of star quarterbacks that also included Marc Wilson, Ty Detmer and current USC coach Steve Sarkisian. In fact, Sarkisian credits the grit that Detmer displayed in a Holiday Bowl loss to Texas A&M in the 1990 game as the reason why he chose to play for BYU.

"I have a lot of great, vivid memories of the Holiday Bowl," Sarkisian said before the Trojans beat Nebraska, 45-42 Saturday night in a game reminiscent of the shootouts that the bowl used to be known for. "But I especially remember Ty Detmer separating his left shoulder against A&M, and then separating his right shoulder, but he hung in there. I grew very fond of Ty after that game - he was one tough customer."

Detmer claimed BYU's only Heisman Trophy during that 1990 season, but it was Robbie Bosco who led the Cougars to their only national championship.

Like Detmer, Bosco played hurt in the Holiday Bowl, hobbled by leg and ankle injuries. But he told quarterbacks coach Mike Holmgren that he wasn't leaving the game, gutting it out with 343 passing yards and two TDs, including the game-winning 13-yard toss to Kelly Smith in the final minute.

Had the playoff committee existed in 1984, BYU wouldn't even have made its top 10 rankings, let along winning the national championship. Before the bowl game, the Cougars' best wins were 30-25 over 8-4 Air Force and 18-13 over 7-4 Hawaii. Nine of their 13 wins were against teams that finished .500 or worse.

But in 1984, "game control" and "quality loss" were lexicons that haven't been invented yet. To the voters in the two major polls, BYU passed the eye test. It helped that the Michigan team was playing out the season without sophomore quarterback Jim Harbaugh, who is now poised to return to his alma mater after it suffered a third losing season in the last seven years.

While that Holiday Bowl game was a forgettable chapter for Michigan, it was a momentous occasion in college football history, one that's unlikely ever to be repeated again.

“It’s still very special 30 years later,” Edwards told U-T San Diego in a recent interview. “They will probably still be talking about it (30 years later), and debating whether they should or shouldn’t have made us No. 1.”

Breaking Down Russell Athletic Bowl

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 19 Dec 2014 20:14:00 +0000

By Jesse Lawrence

As we inch closer to the December, 29th Russell Athletic Bowl between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Clemson Tigers, the ticket prices are bound to change. For this game, we are starting to see a drastic decrease in the prices of tickets to the game in the home of Disney World.

According to Totally Tickets, the average price of a ticket to the game in Orlando Florida costs $91.23, but can cost as little as $28. This price represents a 14% decrease in price over the past 7 days for Oklahoma football tickets. This decrease in price could be due to the loss of Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Watson was the explosive spark that drove the Clemson offense for much of the season. When Watson was on the field, he threw 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions for the tigers. He was the catalyst to the nations 60th best scoring offense. While that rank doesn’t seem very good, they may have been more productive if Watson had played the whole season. Cole Stoudt started the year as the starting quarterback, but threw 10 interceptions on only six touchdowns. Stoudt will start on December 29th.

The Oklahoma Sooners have performed poorly late in the season as well, especially on defense. This correlates to the price of Sooners Tickets on the secondary market. The Sooners rank 48th in the nation in points allowed, and could not contain the high-powered offenses of TCU, Baylor, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State. Despite the all-American talents of Erik Stryker and Zach Sanchez, they had huge holes in the defense and were exposed by better teams all season.

Luckily for the Sooners, they don’t have to deal with Watson. Stoudt may lead the team in passing yards, but has been extremely inefficient. If quarterback Trevor Knight can contain his play and not make mistakes, they should be okay. Knight hasn’t played very well at times this season, but the sooners score the 11th most points in the country (38.9). Running back Samaje Perine could have trouble running into a defense that features Vic Beasley, one of the nation’s best defensive linemen. The Sooners may have to depend on the play of Knight and receiver Sterling Shepard. I wouldn’t expect Perine to be a non-factor, as he has been one of the best running backs in the Big 12 all year long.

Both of these proud programs want to end this season on a positive note, This should be an incredibly hard-fought games by coaches and players who want to revive the image of their seasons. Both of these programs are extraordinarily proud, and this game should fire up both of these teams, especially the seniors.

Jesse Lawrence is the CEO of TiqIQ.com, a leading online ticket search engine.

Big 12: Think (Hard) Before You Act

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 10 Dec 2014 19:38:00 +0000

The worst thing the Big 12 can do is going for the quick fix. When no such "fix" is needed.

Sure, the conference rightfully feels it got screwed by the selection committee after being the only Power 5 conference left out of the inaugural College Football Playoff. But before the Big 12 runs out to hastily extend an invitation to Cincinnati or BYU or whomever to join the conference - or arrange a title game between its top two teams - it needs to ...

Stop. Just stop.

The Big 12 got left out not because it didn't stage a conference title game or because its conference champion didn't play a 13th game. It got left out because the selection committee proved to be no more discerning than the average fan who watches too much ESPN.

The fact is that if you replaced TCU with TEXAS, the Big 12 doesn't lose that final playoff spot to Ohio State and the Big Ten. Or if you replaced OHIO STATE with ILLINOIS, then the Horned Frogs would be on their way to New Orleans to face Alabama in a national semifinal game.

The Big 12 lost out because the schools it had in contention were small, private, Christian colleges, not college football behemoths like the four teams that made it. And in no small part because that's the way ESPN wanted it.

Did you see Kirk Herbstreit in the last three weeks proselytizing on behalf of his alma mat ... uh, Ohio State? Even as the Buckeyes labored to beat Big Ten also-rans Indiana and Michigan, Herbstreit claimed that they were "gaining momentum" and without fail, put Ohio State in his own Final Four week after week.

With the majority of college football games televised by ESPN's networks (not to mention all of the playoff as well as all but one of the 39 bowl games), it's natural for the 12 members of the committee - at least some of them - to fall under the spell of the "Worldwide Leader." When Ohio State blasted Wisconsin, 59-0, with its preseason third-string QB in the Big Ten title game, the committee fell hook, line and sinker.

The committee got reeled in the same way the AP and coaches poll voters did. Despite its struggles against Indiana and Michigan, Ohio State steadily picked up votes during the final weeks of the regulars season, finally vaulting past both Big 12 teams at the end.

And because of that, the simulated BCS standings showed that Ohio State would've been the No. 4 team, seemingly justifying the committee's decision. But the truth is that since the polls accounted for two-thirds of the standings, the voters' inability to keep clear heads from the ESPN-driven media narrative played a key role.

As it turned out, the committee members were no better - or smarter - than these voters.

That's why the Big 12 should not beat itself up over its exclusion from this year's playoff. It's college football, where money always speaks the loudest. ESPN wanted brand names in its tournament and that's what it got. If ESPN had its way, the four-team field will always include Alabama, Ohio State, Texas and USC every year (and Notre Dame if it finally ditches its NBC contract).

TCU was the best team in the Big 12 this year, a fact that's acknowledged by commissioner Bob Bowlsby and every conference coach besides Baylor's Art Briles. The Horned Frogs were better than Ohio State and should've been in the playoff. But since TCU and Baylor shared the conference championship - with Baylor having won head-to-head - that made it convenient for the committee to discard them both.

Would it be any different had Baylor lost another game and therefore made TCU the outright Big 12 winner? Perhaps, but probably not. As one of college football's nouveau riches, the Horned Frogs were basically told to wait for their turn. And this isn't their time yet.

A conference championship game or a 13th game wouldn't have changed that. What would help the Big 12 more is to tell Texas and Oklahoma to get back up to speed, pronto.

First Final Four in New Era

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 07 Dec 2014 07:07:00 +0000

The College Football Playoff selection committee has some hard choices to make. Starting Friday night in Santa Clara, Calif., and ending Saturday night in Indianapolis, every one of its top six teams from last week won. And it only has four playoff spots to dole out.

But forget the canard that the selection committee looks at the entire picture from scratch every week; the 12 members already tipped their hand last week. The top three teams—Alabama, Oregon and TCU—all won impressively to claim a piece of their respective conference championships. No. 4 Florida State as usual labored to win its game, but as the only unbeaten team in the FBS it will get to defend its national title.

That leaves Ohio State and Baylor on the outside, but the committee can reasonably defend its decision for leaving them out. These two teams easily had the worst losses among the contenders—Ohio State to 6-6 Virginia Tech and Baylor to 7-5 West Virginia—and also the weakest schedules (according to Jeff Sagarin).

Despite Ohio State's impressive thrashing of Wisconsin, the problem remains that the committee views the Big Ten as the weakest Power Five conference, and with good reason. Each of the Big Ten's top four teams lost a nonconference game to a Power Five opponent, and Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech was actually the worst among them.

As for Baylor, its nonconference schedule and how it performed against the nine common opponents will allow the committee to overlook the Bears' head-to-head victory over TCU as both teams shared the Big 12 title with identical 11-1 records.

Of course, unlike the BCS, we can no longer project the rankings with confidence, as the final decision will be made by 12 people and nothing else. And since this is year one of the College Football Playoff, we have no precedent to go by.

That said, this is how we project the committee's final rankings, to be released at 12:45 p.m. ET Sunday.

Projected Final CFP Rankings
Rank	Lw	Team	Best Win*	Losses*
1	1	Alabama	No. 8 Miss State	No. 9 Ole Miss
2	2	Oregon	No. 7 Michigan State	No. 12 Arizona
3	3	TCU	No. 11 Kansas State	No. 6 Baylor
4	4	Florida State	No. 10 Georgia Tech	None
5	5	Ohio State	No. 7 Michigan State	Virginia Tech (6-6)
6	6	Baylor	No. 3 TCU	West Virginia (7-5)
7	8	Michigan State		2
8	10	Miss State		2
9	12	Ole Miss		3
10	9	Kansas State		3
11	11	Georgia Tech		3
12	7	Arizona		3
13	14	Georgia		3
14	15	UCLA		3
15	17	Arizona State		3
16	16	Missouri		3
17	13	Wisconsin		3
18	18	Clemson		3
19	19	Auburn		4
20	21	Louisville		3
21	22	Boise State		2
22	23	Utah		4
23	24	LSU		4
24	25	USC		4
25	NR	Minnesota		4

* Projected rankings

No. 1 vs. No. 4: Alabama vs. Florida State, Sugar Bowl - The matchup of the teams that won the last three national championships will be intriguing. Florida State was wobbly all season but never lost a game, something the other 127 FBS teams couldn't do. Alabama looks primed to continue its dynasty-interrupted with Lane Kiffin calling the shots of a dynamic offense.

No. 2 vs. No. 3: Oregon vs. TCU, Rose Bowl - It'll be TCU's second Rose Bowl berth in five years—only Wisconsin has more appearances in that span. The last time the Horned Frogs were in Pasadena they were the gritty underdogs from the Mountain West and beat the Badgers to finish the season unbeaten. This time they'll face an explosive Oregon team piloted by the presumptive Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.

Group-of-Five Bid
Boise State, the only non-Power Five team in last week's committee rankings, made things easy for the committee by taking care of Fresno State to win the Mountain West title late Saturday night. The Broncos likely will earn a trip to the Fiesta Bowl, their third in nine years. They beat Oklahoma and TCU in their two previous appearances in the BCS era.

Committee Sets Stage for Final Rankings

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 08:06:00 +0000

Sorry, Baylor.

The selection committee delivered an emphatic message Tuesday night, practically anointing the four teams that will make the inaugural College Football Playoff field. That leaves Baylor and Ohio State on the outside looking in, even if they won their respective final regular-season games.

By moving TCU up one spot to No. 3—over undefeated Florida State (12-0)—the committee is indicating that the Horned Frogs' playoff position is unassailable as long as they defeat 2-9 Iowa State at home Saturday. A Baylor victory over Kansas State will earn the Bears a co-Big 12 championship, but that, along with their 61-58 win over TCU earlier in the season, won't be enough for them to leapfrog TCU.

So that's where we stand with five days remaining before the committee's final rankings are revealed Sunday morning. Here are five other observations:

1. Head-to-head matters, sort of
While it's listed as one of the major criteria for the committee, chairman Jeff Long has consistently downplayed its value. After Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby artfully declined to name "one true champion" on Monday, Long echoed that sentiment a day later.

This gives the committee a convenient out in terms of following one of its other major criteria—conference championship—since the Horned Frogs will be able to share the Big 12 title with the Baylor-Kansas State winner as long as they beat Iowa State.

2. Florida State, undefeated, unloved
Another week, another win, and the Seminoles dropped another spot. Jameis Winston and Co. have strung together a series of ugly victories, but being the only unbeaten team in FBS somehow isn't good enough for the committee (or the Associated Press Top 25, which seems to be aping the committee of late).

The silver lining for FSU is that it's not in danger of falling out of the playoff field as long as it beats No. 11 Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game Saturday, which will account for its best win of the season, according to the current rankings.

3. How would BCS standings have looked?
If the late, great Bowl Championship Series was still in business, its standings would've yielded the same four playoff teams, though in a slightly different order. Alabama, Florida State, Oregon and TCU would be in the top four, with Ohio State and Baylor significantly behind.

A composite of over 100 computer rankings would in fact put Ohio State in the playoff field ahead of Florida State, with Baylor a long way down at No. 8.

4. If there are upsets of Top Four teams, then what?
Other than TCU, the teams currently in the playoff field are all playing conference championship games this weekend. If any of them lose, it figures to benefit Ohio State and Baylor. But because of its ranking, don't discount the possibility of No. 7 Arizona jumping into the four-team playoff with a second victory over Oregon.

5. Stay up late for Group of Five crowning
Boise State is the only team not from the Power Five conferences in the rankings. If the Broncos defeat 6-6 Fresno State for a second time this season, they will clinch their third major bowl bid in nine years, likely another Fiesta Bowl berth. It'll be a late, late show since the Mountain West Championship Game is the last game Saturday night with a 10 p.m. ET kickoff.

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison
Rank	Team	B/R Mock	BCS	vs. T25 Then*	vs. T25 Now
1	Alabama	1	1	4-1	3-1
2	Oregon	2	4	3-0	3-1
3	TCU	4	2	4-1	3-1
4	Florida St.	3	3	3-0	2-0
5	Ohio St.	5	5	2-0	1-0
6	Baylor	6	6	2-0	2-0
7	Arizona	7	7	3-1	3-2
8	Michigan St.	10	9	1-2	0-2
9	Kansas St.	8	10	1-2	1-2
10	Miss St.	9	8	3-2	1-2
11	Georgia Tech	12	13	2-0	2-0
12	Ole Miss	14	11	3-3	3-2
13	Wisconsin	11	12	2-1	0-1
14	Georgia	15	15	3-2	3-1
15	UCLA	16	16	3-1	3-2
16	Missouri	13	14	2-1	0-1
17	Arizona St.	17	18	4-2	1-2
18	Clemson	20	20	0-3	1-3
19	Auburn	18	19	3-3	2-3
20	Oklahoma	19	17	0-3	0-3
21	Louisville	21	21	0-1	0-2
22	Boise St.	22	22	0-1	0-1
23	Utah	24	26	2-3	2-3
24	LSU	23	23	2-2	2-3
25	USC	25	25	2-2	1-3

* Ranked by AP/committee at time of game

SEC Tops Championship Tickets Market

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 02 Dec 2014 21:13:00 +0000

By Jesse Lawrence

Conference titles will be on the line this weekend in college football. Four major conferences will hold their championship games with Bowl Game and College Football Playoff spots on the line. While these implications may put more on the line than usual for these conference title games, the secondary market demand for each game is slightly different for each game.

As usually is the case, the most expensive game on the secondary market will be the SEC Championship Game when the Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Missouri Tigers. However, even as it is the most expensive of the four games, it will be the least expensive SEC Championship Game over the past five seasons. According to TiqIQ, the average price for the game is currently $251.46 with a get-in price of $113. It is the first SEC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome since at least 2010 with an average price below $300.

The second most expensive game of the weekend will be the Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The current average price for Big Ten Championship Game tickets on TiqIQ is $170.05 with a get-in price of $58. The game will be the Ohio State Buckeyes against the Wisconsin Badgers. The Buckeyes sit just on the cusp of contention for a spot in the College Football Playoffs, but must continue without quarterback J.T. Barrett, who will be out for the rest of the season.

Defending national champions, the Florida State Seminoles, will take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game. The current secondary market average for ACC Championship Game tickets is $142.09 with a get-in price of just $32, according to TiqIQ. The Seminoles are undefeated, but with a relatively weak strength of schedule, Florida State could fall out of the playoff picture with a loss to Georgia Tech.

The least expensive game of the four major conference title games will take place on Friday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The Pac-12 Championship Game will feature the Oregon Ducks taking on the Arizona Wildcats. The average price for the game is currently $139.60 on the secondary market, with a get-in price of $32. Oregon’s only loss this season came at the beginning of October to Arizona. Oregon also sits in a College Football Playoff spot entering the weekend.

For more information on this weekend’s Conference Championship Games, visit the TiqIQ Blog.

Jesse Lawrence is the CEO of TiqIQ.com, a leading online ticket search engine.

A Big 12 Fight to the Finish

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 01 Dec 2014 02:10:00 +0000

TCU, Baylor or Ohio State?

That will be the selection committee's toughest task, picking one of those three teams to place in the College Football Playoff field. Each of the top six teams in the committee's next rankings will be playing this weekend in games they are favored.

The top three teams—Alabama, Oregon and Florida State—will all be playing in their respective conference title games and they're in with a victory. If any of them should lose, it opens the door for another one of the aforementioned "next three."

Ohio State has a major issue. On one hand, the Buckeyes hope the committee won't hold the season-ending injury to Heisman candidate QB J.T. Barrett against them. On the other, they must defeat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game with Barrett's backup Cardale Jones.

PROJECTED RANKINGS

So in all likelihood, the final spot will be contested by the two Big 12 teams, with each having a chance to win a share of the conference title. As there is no Big 12 Championship Game, both TCU and Baylor can claim at least to be a co-champion with a win next week.

This is where things get tricky. Baylor defeated TCU 61-58 at home earlier this season, rallying from 21 points down with 11 minutes remaining to hand the Horned Frogs their only loss of the season. But the problem for the Bears is that the committee thinks there's enough of a resume gap between the two teams for the head-to-head result not to matter.

TCU and Baylor each played an FCS team and the Horned Frogs routed Big Ten title contender Minnesota while the Bears blew out MAC also-ran Buffalo. Besides getting a lift from the Gophers' surprising season, TCU also owns a significant advantage over Baylor in the games so far against nine common opponents.

As TCU is unlikely to lose to 2-9 Iowa State, Baylor must defeat Kansas State impressively to have any shot of catching the Horned Frogs in the eyes of the committee. Making the task more difficult is that the Wildcats are playing for much more than spoiler, as they also will claim at least a share of the Big 12 title with a victory.

TCU, Baylor Common Opponents
TCU	Opponent	Baylor	Advantage
+56 *	SMU	+45	TCU
+38 *	Texas	+21 *	TCU
+1 *	West Virginia	-14 *	TCU
+33	Oklahoma State	+21	TCU
+55	Texas Tech	+2	TCU
+4	Oklahoma	+34 *	Baylor
+4 *	Kansas	+46	Baylor
Dec. 6	Iowa State	+21*
+21	Kansas State	Dec. 6
-3 *	Baylor/TCU	+3	Baylor

* Road game

Other Fun Facts
* Boise State is a victory over 6-6 Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship Game away from the inaugural CFP group-of-five automatic bid. It will be the Broncos' third major bowl appearance in the last nine seasons and likely it'll be a third Fiesta Bowl berth. Northern Illinois and Memphis figure to be next in line if Boise State somehow stumbles.

* The rest of the 11 bowl slots, of course, will all go to the power five conferences. The SEC will get three berths while the other conferences will receive two each. Mississippi State probably has a bid wrapped up regardless of how the conference championship games go.

* There are a total of 80 bowl eligible teams, with Oklahoma State and Temple can still earn eligibility. Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and Old Dominion will not go bowling as they're all in the second year of FBS transition and thus ineligible. Looks like Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, UAB and Ohio—all 6-6— will be left out despite being eligible.

Hard to Explain Away SEC Bias

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 26 Nov 2014 13:31:00 +0000

So preseason rankings do matter after all?

While the selection committee's top seven teams stayed exactly the same Tuesday, chairman Jeff Long's explanations for the latest College Football Playoff rankings are beginning to defy both logic and the committee's own procedural guidelines.

Last week he introduced the concept of "game control" to justify Alabama's No. 1 ranking, and this week he came up with "quality loss" and one other whopper during the ESPN broadcast: It matters if a team is ranked when it is beaten.

Therefore, Alabama still gets credit for wins over LSU and Texas A&M though neither is now ranked, as does Mississippi State. This goes directly against the committee's protocol to look at the entire body of work and not rely on preseason perception.

Long later scrambled on a conference call with reporters to say that only the committee's own rankings matter, not the preseason and early-season variety as produced by the AP or Coaches Polls. The problem is that doesn't wash either.

By this criteria Mississippi State has beaten exactly zero teams as ranked by the committee at the time of the game, yet it's still at No. 4, ahead of other one-loss teams—TCU, Baylor and Ohio State—that have beaten committee-ranked opponents.

Maybe the problem is having these weekly announcements and the need to come up with tortured logic to explain rankings that are by no means a consensus. But since we're here to pick them apart, let's look at five more issues:

1. Is SEC bias creeping in?
Long's most controversial moves so far have been made to favor SEC teams—placing Alabama No. 1 ahead of Oregon and putting Mississippi State in the playoff field (as of now). The fact that he's the Arkansas athletic director does not help.

ESPN, the network that will televise all playoff games (not to mention all but one of the 39 bowl games), co-owns and operates the SEC Network. A conflict of interest will be suspected by all outside parties.

2. Winning is not enough, just ask Florida State
The scoreboard is taking a backseat to Game Control Theory™ and Quality Loss, two elements that the defending national champions have not been able to master. Because of their propensity to pull out last-minute wins (without a loss), the Seminoles continue to be banished to No. 3.

And while they've beaten three teams that were ranked at the time of the game (and two still currently ranked), that doesn't seem to matter either.

3. The committee loves Minnesota, and so does TCU
The Golden Gophers are certainly one of the feel-good stories of the season, and they're one win away from claiming the Big Ten West title. But the committee has taken that admiration to another level, putting Minnesota four spots higher than it is in the polls and about 12 higher than its average computer ranking.

This is all very lovely for TCU, however, as its 30-7 win over the Gophers early in the season is what prevents its head-to-head loss to Baylor from mattering, at least for now.

4. Who's afraid of Virginia Tech?
Ohio State's home loss to Virginia Tech looks worse every week, especially after the Hokies were shut out in regulation by 3-8 Wake Forest in last Saturday's desultory 6-3 two-overtime loss. But was it really that bad? Long said the committee doesn't view that 35-21 defeat against the now 5-6 Hokies as a terrible loss.

Virginia Tech was not ranked then (and of course it isn't now), but Long's response seems to suggest that the Buckeyes will be able to overcome that by winning the Big Ten championship.

5. Marshall is unbeaten and looks doomed
The committee finally put a group-of-five (actually two) team back in the rankings after snubbing those teams the past three weeks. But 11-0 Marshall is one spot behind 9-2 Boise State, and the remaining schedule certainly favors the Broncos to stay ahead.

The committee has made a big deal out of nonconference schedules, and Marshall's is admittedly weak (though that apparently doesn't apply to Mississippi State). But is Boise's strong enough to trump two losses?

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison
Rank	Team	B/R Mock	AP Poll	vs. T25 Then*	vs. T25 Now
1	Alabama	1	2	3-1	1-1
2	Oregon	2	3	3-0	3-1
3	Florida St.	3	1	3-0	2-0
4	Miss St.	4	4	3-1	1-1
5	TCU	5	6	4-1	3-1
6	Ohio St.	6	7	2-0	2-0
7	Baylor	7	5	2-0	2-0
8	UCLA	8	9	3-1	2-2
9	Georgia	9	8	3-1	3-0
10	Michigan St.	11	10	1-2	0-2
11	Arizona	12	12	2-1	2-1
12	Kansas St.	10	11	1-2	1-2
13	Arizona St.	13	13	4-1	1-1
14	Wisconsin	16	14	1-1	0-0
15	Auburn	14	15	3-2	1-2
16	Ga. Tech	17	16	1-0	1-0
17	Missouri	18	17	2-1	0-1
18	Minnesota	20	22	1-1	0-2
19	Ole Miss	15	18	2-2	2-1
20	Oklahoma	19	20	0-3	0-3
21	Clemson	21	23	0-3	1-3
22	Louisville	22	24	0-1	0-2
23	Boise St.	26	25	0-1	0-1
24	Marshall	25	19	0-0	0-0
25	Utah	32	28	2-3	1-3

* Ranked by AP/committee at time of game

Conference Call on Playoff Field

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 24 Nov 2014 14:41:00 +0000

With just two weeks left in the regular season, the field of contenders for the four playoff spots is shrinking fast. After Saturday, there are only 16 teams still mathematically alive for their respective conference championships. And of those 16, maybe half of them have a legitimate shot of being part of the inaugural College Football Playoff.

While winning the conference championship is not necessarily a prerequisite of qualifying for the playoff, the committee did list that as a major factor in its selection process. Of all the remaining contenders, maybe just one - Mississippi State - has a shot at making the playoff without winning its conference.

There probably will not be significant changes in the committee's rankings this week other than that No. 8 Ole Miss will be tumbling down after a 30-0 wipeout loss to Arkansas. So we'll take a good look at those final 16 teams and dissect their prospects:

Teams with no chance
Wisconsin (Big Ten), Minnesota (Big Ten), Georgia Tech (ACC): The Minnesota-Wisconsin winner as well as Georgia Tech are guaranteed a place in their respective championship games. But they're too far down the standings and have weak resumes with killer losses (Wisconsin to Northwestern, Minnesota to Illinois, Georgia Tech to North Carolina) to have any shot.

Teams with slim chance
Kansas State (Big 12), Arizona (Pac-12), Arizona State (Pac-12): These three two-loss teams are hovering around the low-teens but all have significant obstacles to overcome. K-State can share the Big 12 title if it wins out, but having lost to TCU and with an extra nonconference loss, it's unlikely to leapfrog the Frogs in the rankings. The Territorial Cup winner can only claim the Pac-12 South with a UCLA loss to Stanford, but even if that team beats Oregon in the Pac-12 title game it needs lots of teams in front of it to suffer unexpected losses to get into the top four.

Teams need a lot of help
Georgia (SEC), Missouri (SEC): Mizzou wins the SEC East with a victory over resurgent Arkansas, otherwise, the division title goes to Georgia. But Besides having to knock off a heavily-favored SEC West winner (Alabama or Mississippi State), they both already have two losses including a very bad one each (Georgia to Florida, Mizzou to Indiana). A win by the East winner in the conference title game may very well cost the SEC a spot in the playoff.

Teams need some help
Baylor (Big 12), TCU (Big 12), Ohio State (Big Ten), UCLA (Pac-12): All of those teams can win at least a share (in the cases of TCU and Baylor) of their respective conference titles on their own, but they don't control their own fate when it comes to the playoff. Only one of those teams will make it to the Final Four if the top three teams win out. Despite last week's No. 7 ranking, Baylor might have the best shot as it's likely to jump both TCU and Ohio State with a final game victory over Kansas State to finish 11-1.

Team needs Auburn's help
Mississippi State (SEC): An Auburn upset of Alabama in the Iron Bowl puts the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game—if they defeat slumping Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Without a division (and conference) title, they probably will end up 11-1 with nowhere (in the playoff) to go. While it's currently ranked No. 4, Miss State is certain to lose ground in the final two weeks of the season to a one-loss champion from another conference since its resume is not good enough to trump that purportedly important consideration.

Teams need no help
Alabama (SEC), Oregon (Pac-12), Florida State (ACC): Win out, and they're in the playoff, simple as that. Never mind the committee's seeming hostility, the Seminoles will get a chance to defend their title if they beat Florida and Georgia Tech in the next two games.

Other Fun Facts

* Is this the week the committee finally puts a group-of-five team (or two) in the rankings after having snubbed them the past three weeks? There are just 24 power-five teams with three or fewer losses and Duke is certainly not going to be ranked. That means either Marshall and/or Colorado State will break through or up to a pair of four-loss teams will be ranked.

* Georgia Tech should be a lock for the Orange Bowl if it beats Georgia in the Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate. Other than playoff-bound FSU, there are no other ACC teams with fewer than three losses. Of course, the Jackets are guaranteed an Orange Bowl berth if they upset the 'Noles in the ACC title game.

* Notre Dame and BYU are both 7-4 and neither has a prayer of getting into a New Year's Six bowl. But even if their respective seasons had gone much better, access to the playoff and the best bowls still will be difficult for them under the new regime. With Navy set to join the American next season, we finally could be witnessing the death of independents at the FBS level.

Committee's Latest Rankings a Major Fail

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 19 Nov 2014 02:22:00 +0000

Are you happy now?

For those who clamored for the death of the BCS and birth of a playoff system, Tuesday night's rankings could not have brought smiles to their faces. In short, the committee's rankings actually made the polls look good by comparison.

It's as if the 12 members of the selection committee are waging war on logic. Strength of schedule is important, only when it's not. Head-to-head matters, except when it doesn't.

And if you're not a member of the power-five conferences, you should just tune in on Dec. 7 when the committee reveals who will get that guaranteed access slot to a New Year's Six bowl. Your resume and body of work clearly does not measure up to the big boys no matter what you do.

So what can we take away from this week's rankings? You mean other than that the committee should be immediately disbanded in favor of an improved BCS formula? OK, let's try these five:

The eye-ball test trumps all
Alabama is ranked No. 1 for apparently the reason that it looks better "on offense, defense and special teams" than everyone else, according to chairman Jeff Long. The committee is untroubled that Alabama has beaten just one of its own Top 25 teams (Mississippi State) while No. 2 Oregon has beaten three (UCLA, Michigan State and Utah) and No. 3 Florida State two (Clemson and Louisville) while staying undefeated.

Maybe the problem are those lying eyes
Former No. 1 Mississippi State only dropped to No. 4 after losing to Alabama because Long said the Bulldogs lost by only five to the Tide and were never out of the game. Maybe that's the biggest problem with item No. 1—the committee members need to have their eyes examined. The Bulldogs were never in that game, all the way to the concession TD that made the final score deceptively close. This "good loss," however, was enough keep MSU in the playoff field despite that, like the Tide, it's beaten just one ranked team (Auburn).

Strength of schedule for me, not for thee
And whereas Baylor is ostensibly still punished for its terrible nonconference schedule, the same does not apply to MSU, which actually played four non-power-five opponents as compared to Baylor's three. The Bulldogs beat Southern Miss (3-8), UAB (5-5), South Alabama (6-4) and Tennessee-Martin (FCS, 4-5) and that's good enough to trump TCU, which actually beat three currently ranked teams and played two more power-five opponents than MSU did.

Ohio State looks to be DOA
The Buckeyes are No. 6 and probably as good as dead when it comes to the playoff, unless they get some kind of divine intervention. There's not enough good opponents left on their schedule that will provide them with a significant lift to jump teams like Mississippi State and TCU. And Baylor, one spot behind now, is poised to perhaps snatch the final playoff spot if it can defeat Kansas State on the final day of the regular season to claim the Big 12 title.

Group-of-five? What Group-of-five?
For a third week in a row, no team outside of the power-five conferences (and Notre Dame) was in the rankings. Of the 27 power-five teams with three or fewer losses, only Duke and Iowa are not ranked. The committee clearly takes strength of schedule seriously—except when it doesn't, see MSU—when it comes to Group-of-five teams. It's still very much anybody's guess which team among Marshall, Colorado State and Boise State is considered the best in the (possibly faulty) eyes of the committee.

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison
Rank	Team	BR Mock	AP Poll	Record vs. T25	Losses
1	Alabama	2	2	1-1	No. 8 Ole Miss
2	Oregon	1	3	3-1	No. 15 Arizona
3	Florida State	3	1	2-0	None
4	Miss State	5	4	1-1	No. 1 Alabama
5	TCU	4	5	3-1	No. 7 Baylor
6	Ohio State	7	7	2-0	Virginia Tech
7	Baylor	6	6	2-0	West Virginia
8	Ole Miss	8	8	1-1	2
9	UCLA	9	11	2-2	2
10	Georgia	10	9	3-0	2
11	Michigan State	11	10	1-2	2
12	Kansas State	12	12	1-2	2
13	Arizona State	14	13	2-1	2
14	Auburn	15	16	2-2	3
15	Arizona	13	15	1-2	2
16	Wisconsin	16	14	1-0	2
17	Utah	17	20	2-2	3
18	Georgia Tech	20	17	1-0	2
19	USC	18	24	1-2	3
20	Missouri	19	19	0-1	2
21	Oklahoma	25	23	0-3	3
22	Clemson	34	27	1-3	3
23	Nebraska	22	21	0-2	3
24	Louisville	35	28	0-2	3
25	Minnesota	28	31	0-2	3
NR	Marshall	21	18	0-0	None
NR	Colorado State	24	22	0-0	Boise State

Seven Contenders Left Standing

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 17 Nov 2014 15:53:00 +0000

With three weeks left on the season, there are just seven FBS teams with no more than one loss. It's possible for all seven to win out, but only six will be able to claim (or share) their respective conference championships.

The selection committee's most difficult task now is to determine which three teams to leave out of the four-team playoff field if each wins its remaining games. Keep in mind that because the members pledged to look at the teams based on their entire body of work, the rankings may shift each week even without any of the teams losing.

So chances are the Top 4 teams you see this week won't be exactly the same next week, or the week after that. But the bottom line is that the current Top 3 teams are in the playoff if avoid losing, and the rest will have to fight it out for the final spot.

THE RANKINGS

The Playoff Teams

1. Oregon
The top spot is a toss-up between Oregon and Alabama, but we think the Ducks will get the edge because of their superior record against current Top 25 teams. They have beaten three ranked teams—UCLA, Michigan State and Utah—whereas the Tide have defeated just one, over Mississippi State on Saturday.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

2. Alabama
Their win over the Bulldogs put the Tide back in the driver's seat in the SEC West race, but their work is far from done. A loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl will keep them out of the SEC title game and almost certainly the inaugural playoff. As things stand now, Alabama can't afford a second loss.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

3. Florida State
The Seminoles will make the playoff if they win out, but they have no margin for error. FSU does not own a single victory over a ranked team so a first loss will prove fatal for its quest to repeat as the national champion. But with two home games plus the ACC title game—where they'll be double-digit favorites in all—the Noles have the easiest path to a playoff spot.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

4. TCU
The Horned Frogs probably will still hold on to this spot despite a lackluster win over Kansas. Keep in mind that since the committee isn't supposed to act like pollsters, weekly results shouldn't change the narrative too much as TCU has a better overall resume than Baylor and Ohio State. But by no means that the Frogs should feel comfortable as they've got nothing locked up even if they win out.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

The First Four Out

5. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs need help (i.e., an Auburn upset in the Iron Bowl) to win the SEC West. They need a lot more help to get into the playoff as an at-large team. Because of Miss State's weak nonconference schedule, there is little chance for it to be selected for the four-team field if there are enough one-loss conference champions available.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

6. Baylor
The Bears were idle this week, but got some good news with TCU's struggles with Kansas and also Arizona State's loss. At the end of the season, the committee will compare TCU and Baylor's resume side-by-side with close scrutiny as they share 10 common opponents. The margin of victories will matter if both teams finish 11-1 and share the Big 12 title.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

7. Ohio State
The Buckeyes remain on the outside looking in (don't let Kirk Herbstreit's bracket fool you). Their close win over Minnesota won't help their cause as TCU blew out the Gophers early in the season. And that the fact a two-loss Wisconsin (at best) will be the best game left on their schedule won't provide them much of a boost. Ohio State needs lots of things to break its way.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl

9. UCLA
A handful of two-loss teams are still clinging to hopes of crashing the playoff field, and out of this group UCLA might have the best shot. The Bruins control the tough Pac-12 South race and if they beat Oregon in a rematch in the conference title game, they might have a chance to steal a berth—but they'll need a ton of help.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl

Other Fun Facts

* The group-of-five race likely is coming down to three teams and at this point you have to like Marshall's chances despite its less-than-rigorous schedule. Colorado State's path to the Mountain West championship is blocked by Boise State, which is also a contender but has two losses. Since seven of the committee's bottom 10 teams (Nos. 16-25) from last week lost, we expect to see at least one, if not two, non-power-five teams in the next rankings.

* There are 27 power-five teams with three or fewer losses and all but three or four of these teams will make the next rankings. The teams about certain to be excluded are Iowa, Minnesota and Louisville, with Oklahoma and Clemson expected to fight for the last one or two spots.

* The Orange Bowl picture—a berth is guaranteed to an ACC team even if Florida State makes the playoff—got a lot murkier after both Clemson and Duke lost on Saturday. The Blue Devils will repeat as the Coastal winner if they win their remaining two games. But there's a good chance that Georgia Tech might snag this bid even if it doesn't win its division but finishes the regular season with a victory in the Clean Old Fashioned Hate.

Nobody Should Get Very Comfortable Just Yet

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 12 Nov 2014 02:08:00 +0000

The selection committee's third release of its rankings proved to be its most interesting and revealing. There is strong indication that the members indeed are evaluating the teams freshly each week and not following the poll practice where teams only slide up and down out of fixed positions from the previous week.

That's good. It makes for an intriguing final month of the season for the fewer than a dozen contenders still remaining in the playoff hunt.

Here are the five things that come immediately to mind based on the committee's new rankings:

SEC is looking at one bid
Forget two bids in the four-team field. The SEC will need to hang on to its one bid, as a two-loss conference champion may very well be shut out of the playoff. Despite being the top-ranked team for three weeks in a row, Mississippi State may be finished with just one loss if it does not win the SEC West because of a weak nonconference schedule.

Big Ten is in big trouble
Ohio State's big win over Michigan State is good for the Buckeyes but very bad for their conference. OSU will not be able to play its way into the playoff without help as the committee has a very low regard for the Big Ten. The Buckeyes' best remaining opponent could be Nebraska—if they meet in the B1G title game—and the Huskers are ranked only 16th despite having just one loss.

TCU shouldn't get too comfortable
While the Horned Frogs made a celebrated jump into the top four this week, this stay is by no means permanent. Baylor still has a chance to get past TCU as it has better opponents coming up, including the regular-season finale against Kansas State.
Since the two teams share the same foes in 10 of their 11 games against FBS opponents, TCU should root hard for Minnesota, as its victory over the now-ranked Gophers is a far better scalp than Baylor's win over Buffalo.

Committee is sending a message about schedule
That Baylor is in its current predicament owes a great deal to its awful nonconference schedule. Conversely, that UCLA is ranked 11th can be traced to its decision to play two power-five opponents in its three OOC games. A third example is Notre Dame, where we learned that while it's good to schedule tough opponents, you'll need to beat them to get credit.

Where's group-of-five?
For a second consecutive week, the committee did not bother to put a group-of-five team in the rankings, leaving the access bowl picture very murky. But with the introduction of Minnesota at No. 25, one must wonder if leaving Marshall out at this point makes sense. As a direct comparison, the Herd performed better than the Gophers as they both beat Middle Tennessee at home. Marshall won by 25 (49-24) whereas Minnesota won by 11 (35-24).

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison
CFP Rank	Team	BCS	B/R Mock	AP	Coaches
1`	Mississippi State	1	1	1	1
2	Oregon	4	3	3	4
3	Florida State	2	2	2	2
4	TCU	5	5	5	5
5	Alabama	3	4	4	3
6	Arizona State	6	6	7	8
7	Baylor	7	7	6	6
8	Ohio State	10	8	8	7
9	Auburn	8	9	9	9
10	Ole Miss	9	10	10	10
11	UCLA	12	12	14	15
12	Michigan State	13	14	12	12
13	Kansas State	14	13	13	13
14	Arizona	19	15	17	18
15	Georgia	15	18	16	14
16	Nebraska	11	11	11	11
17	LSU	17	17	20	20
18	Notre Dame	16	16	15	16
19	Clemson	18	19	18	17
20	Wisconsin	22	22	22	22
21	Duke	20	20	19	19
22	Georgia Tech	25	21	24	23
23	Utah	NR	24	25	28
24	Texas A&M	23	23	27	30
25	Minnesota	NR	31	30	27
NR	Marshall	21	25	21	21
NR	Colorado State	24	30	23	25

* No group-of-five team is ranked by the committee.

Explanation of rankings

BCS rankings are a simulation of the BCS formula used from 2004-2013 with two exceptions: The AP poll is used in place of the Harris Poll, and Sagarin and Massey rankings are their native systems instead of the non-MOV version used for the BCS.

CFP mock rankings are published weekly at Bleacher Report, with components including polls, computers, strength of schedule and conference championships. The full rankings are here.

TCU or Baylor, That's the Question

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 10 Nov 2014 16:41:00 +0000

TCU or Baylor?

With the playoff picture clearing up after last Saturday's quasi-elimination games, this question looms large for the selection committee. After next week's Alabama-Mississippi State game, we should have an undisputed Top 3 teams with the final spot up for grabs between the two Big 12 contenders.

By any reasonable measurement, TCU is ahead of Baylor. The Horned Frogs even outplayed the Bears for better than 80 percent of their head-to-head matchup. But the problem is, Baylor did have those amazing last 12 minutes in which they scored 24 points to win 61-58.

For now, it's fine for the committee to put TCU ahead of Baylor—and it's expected to do so this week. But what if both teams finish 11-1, with Baylor beating Kansas State on the last day of the season. Will the committee finally flip the teams, then? Or does it keep TCU ahead because head-to-head is merely one of the many considerations, as chairman Jeff Long stated last week?

Both teams will be favored to win their respective remaining three games. And if they both come through, this likely will be the committee's most difficult decision come Selection Sunday.

THE RANKINGS

The Playoff Teams

1. Mississippi State
While a loss at Alabama on Saturday won't mathematically eliminate the Bulldogs from playoff contention, it likely would end their dream season. With its weak nonconference schedule, it's highly doubtful that MSU would get into the playoff field without winning the SEC West. So yes, it's pretty much a do-or-die game.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

2. Florida State
The Seminoles continue to cruise along despite a weak schedule and very low computer rankings. But none of that matters as long as they win out. In fact, should Mississippi State lose next week, FSU will ascend to the No. 1 spot and be poised to grab the top seed in the playoff.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

3. Oregon
The Ducks survived another brutal Pac-12 under-the-lights drama, thanks in part to a terribly bone-headed play by Utah early in the game. But mounting injury problems will cause them to limp toward the finish line. Oregon has about four weeks to get healthy before its next real challenge in the Pac-12 title game.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

5. TCU
The Frogs have the final playoff spot now but by no means do they control their own fate. They may win their final three games impressively only to be turned out by the committee because of their loss to Baylor. All TCU can do is win and wait.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

The First Four Out

4. Alabama
After having survived Death Valley, the Tide face another must-win game as they host No. 1 Mississippi State. The path is clear for them, though—win out and they're in the playoff. And having all three of their remaining games at home should help.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

6. Arizona State
The Sun Devils scored their most impressive win of the season by knocking Notre Dame out of the playoff chase, but that win does not help them in the Pac-12 South race. A loss in the Territorial Cup likely will hand the division title to arch rival Arizona, or the UCLA-USC winner, depending how the tough division shakes out in the next three weeks.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl

7. Baylor
There's not much the Bears can do about their weak nonconference schedule, but they can see a path to the playoff field if they score a ton of style points the rest of the way. For Baylor, it may all come down to the season finale against Kansas State and also just how much the committee values head-to-head results.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

8. Ohio State
The Buckeyes' resounding win at East Lansing puts them in the driver's seat for the Big Ten title, which might ultimately be the consolation prize. The weakness of the league, in addition to Ohio State's awful loss to Virginia Tech—by far the worst one among all one-loss teams—might be just too much to overcome.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl

Other Fun Facts

* Realistically, there are just 12 teams still in contention for a playoff spot, and three of those are two-loss teams (Auburn, Ole Miss and UCLA) who all need help just to win their respective divisions. Nebraska can win out and claim the Big Ten title, but like Ohio State, its path to the playoff field is very much blocked by teams from the other four power conferences.

* Will the committee continue to keep Marshall, or other group-of-five teams, out of the rankings? It'll likely have to tip its hand at some point as we'll see several three-loss teams in this week's rankings. Colorado State might have the best resume so far among group-of-five contenders, but it can't win the Mountain West without Boise State losing at least another game.

* Notre Dame's loss to Arizona State eliminated the Irish from playoff contention, and perhaps also a spot in a New Year's Six bowl as well. Unlike in the bowl era and the BCS era where the Irish often received preferential treatment from individual bowls, in the CFP the committee decides on all 12 participants for the major bowls. Based on merit Notre Dame for now is headed to a minor bowl game.

Committee Members Behaving Like Pollsters

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 05 Nov 2014 16:46:00 +0000

After just one week, it's pretty clear that the College Football Playoff selection committee members are behaving like the voters in The Associated Press and coaches polls.

Yes, the 12 members are doing more homework and their rankings remain superior and more logical than the polls, but they're very much falling into the trap of sliding teams up and down based on wins and losses. With the exception of one team—Ole Miss at No. 11—the teams are ordered according to their number of losses.

The committee may come to regret having to do this made-for-TV event (let's face it, ESPN really wanted it) every week until Dec. 7, when it has to unveil its final rankings—the only one that actually matters. If the members want to fulfill the promise that they're taking a fresh look at each team every week, there had better be significant fluctuations in the upcoming rankings.

While these rankings don't exactly resemble the old BCS standings (and that's a good thing), we have the entire Top 10 pegged in order with the exception of Nos. 5 and 6 Alabama and TCU being flipped. And committee chairman Jeff Long admitted during the selection-show interview that these teams are so close that they had to "go to the tape" to break the tie.

Here's how this week's rankings look:

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison
CFP Rank	Team	BCS	B/R Mock	AP	Coaches
1	Miss State	1	1	1	1
2	Florida State	2	2	2	2
3	Auburn	3	3	3	3
4	Oregon	5	4	5	5
5	Alabama	4	6	4	4
6	TCU	6	5	6	7
7	Kansas State	8	7	9	9
8	Michigan State	7	8	7	6
9	Arizona State	12	9	11	12
10	Notre Dame	9	10	8	8
11	Ole Miss	10	12	12	13
12	Baylor	14	11	10	10
13	Nebraska	15	13	15	14
14	Ohio State	13	14	13	11
15	Oklahoma	17	17	16	16
16	LSU	11	15	14	15
17	Utah	21	21	20	22
18	UCLA	16	16	18	18
19	Arizona	20	18	21	21
20	Georgia	18	19	17	17
21	Clemson	19	20	19	19
22	Duke	23	24	22	20
23	West Virginia	24	26	24	25
24	Georgia Tech	NR	32	29	28
25	Wisconsin	25	22	25	24
NR	Marshall	22	23	23	23

Explanation of Rankings

BCS rankings are a simulation of the BCS formula used from 2004-2013 with two exceptions: 1) The AP poll is used in place of the Harris Poll; 2) Sagarin and Massey rankings are their native systems instead of the non-MOV version used for the BCS.

CFP mock rankings are published weekly at Bleacher Report, with components including polls, computers, strength of schedule and conference championships. The full rankings are here.

A Few Highlights, Thoughts from Committee's Rankings

Ole Miss' Big Drop Reveals Poll Mentality
The Rebels lost a heartbreaker against No. 3 Auburn on a last-minute fumble that was ruled a touchdown on the field and only overturned by replay as Laquon Treadwell suffered a horrific ankle injury in the process. But they dropped seven spots in the rankings to No. 11. That smells like a poll.

Eight Teams Can Still Play Their Way in
With Alabama having games remaining against Auburn and Mississippi State, it looks like the top seven teams, plus No. 9 Arizona State, all will have a shot to land a spot in the playoff field simply by winning out. The highest-ranked team that does not control its own fate is eighth-ranked Michigan State, which needs at least one of the other conference champions to suffer a second loss.

Notre Dame Faces a Must-Win Game, and Then Some
The Irish, as expected, are still stuck at No. 10. They can move up by beating No. 9 Arizona State this week and then must root like crazy for the Sun Devils the rest of the way. Notre Dame's best chance of getting into the playoff will rest on ASU winning the Pac-12 title (presumably over Oregon).

Committee Has a Bias, but Not an SEC Bias
Of the six SEC teams in the committee's rankings, only Ole Miss is placed higher in the CFP rankings than the AP poll. Of the five Pac-12 teams in the rankings, each is ranked at least as high—if not higher—in the CFP rankings as the AP poll. You can interpret this as the polls being biased toward the SEC (which they are) and/or that with four of the 12 committee members having Western ties (more than any other region), the teams out on the left coast are getting a closer look.

Little Guys Still Get No Love from Committee
No Group of Five team made it into the Top 25 this week, and this is at least somewhat troubling. If Marshall is deemed unworthy because of its weak schedule, then Colorado State (despite the fact that it needs help to win the Mountain West) should be strongly considered. If strength of schedule is of such paramount concern, then there's no chance any non-Power Five team will ever land in the playoff. As in, ever.

Will SEC Get 2 Playoff Teams or None?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 03 Nov 2014 15:07:00 +0000

We're in the first week of November and we're nowhere nearing clarity in terms of the inaugural playoff picture. We might easily have two SEC teams in the four-team playoff, or we might have none.

The selection committee will have five more weeks to sort all this out after unveiling its first-ever rankings last week. But this Tuesday's rankings are more revealing and relevant: We will finally get an idea about how its evaluation process works.

Do the 12 committee members act like pollsters, where they simply slide teams up and down each week based on wins and losses? Or do they shred last week's rankings and evaluate each team freshly based on the data that became available only after Saturday? We will pick up tons of clues Tuesday night.

But until then, here are our projected College Football Playoff rankings for this week, based on what we learned last week:

THE RANKINGS

The Playoff Teams

1. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs escaped against Arkansas and will remain No. 1, but they have no margin for error. A loss at Alabama could end their bid for the SEC West title and possibly a playoff spot.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

2. Florida State
The Seminoles survived a Thursday night ambush by rallying in the second half. They're clearly not as good as they were last year but with a forgiving schedule they are able to do just enough to hang on. As long as FSU wins out, it'll be no worse than the No. 2 seed in the playoff.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

4. Oregon
The Ducks are back on a roll as they're healthy again and Marcus Mariota is staking his claim for the Heisman Trophy. They finally solved Stanford and are primed to take care of business the rest of the way.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

5. TCU
A dramatic last-second win at Morgantown kept the Horned Frogs' hopes for a playoff berth alive and they'll be playing another elimination game Saturday against Kansas State with possibly the Big 12 title on the line.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

The First Four Out

3. Auburn
If both Auburn and Mississippi State win out, it'll produce the most likely scenario for two SEC teams to crash the playoff party. The Tigers' remaining schedule isn't a cakewalk, but most of their work is already done, save for the Iron Bowl.
Projected bowl: Orange Bowl

6. Alabama
Thanks to Ole Miss' gut-wrenching loss to Auburn, the Tide now can win the SEC West by running the table without any other help. But unlike Auburn, their work is just getting started. Alabama must get by LSU (at Death Valley, at night) and Mississippi State back-to-back before facing Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

7. Kansas State
The Wildcats can play their way into the playoff, but they have to get it done away from Manhattan. They must beat TCU, West Virginia and Baylor—all on the road.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

8. Michigan State
The Spartans must get by Ohio State this weekend and if they should prevail, they'd be able to coast home to a Big Ten title. But even that guarantees nothing in terms of a playoff berth as Michigan State is very much on the outside at the point.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl

Other Fun Facts

* The Group-of-Five picture underwent a major shakeup on Saturday as both East Carolina and Central Florida lost, thus eliminating the American Athletic Conference. We'll find out if the committee will continue to hold the weak schedule against Marshall even though it's one of just three unbeaten teams left. And we'll see if Colorado State breaks into the rankings as well.

* The ACC's guaranteed Orange Bowl berth now appears to be a two-team race. Clemson might have the edge but Duke certainly is making its own case. If the Blue Devils can win the Coastal without incurring another loss, they might get the nod over the Tigers if they keep it close against Florida State in the ACC title game.

* Notre Dame's too-close-for-comfort win over Navy didn't help its cause this week, but it did get some assistance Saturday night as Arizona State squeaked out another close win. The Sun Devils are now leading the tough Pac-12 South and as such, give the Irish a huge opportunity to impress in their showdown Saturday.

Committee's First Rankings Are RIght On Target

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 29 Oct 2014 01:04:00 +0000

The College Football Playoff selection committee unveiled its first rankings Tuesday night, and they are, in fact, spot on.

Based on these rankings, we can easily deduce that strength of schedule is of paramount importance to the committee, and head-to-head results are fastidiously considered. Their rankings are more logical and consistent than the two polls, particularly the coaches poll, which should now be thoroughly discredited.

The committee's rankings also vary slightly from what the BCS standings would've looked like. The reason for that is rather obvious: The influence of the polls. In the BCS standings used from 2004-2013, the polls accounted for two-thirds of rankings. That element has been completely suppressed as the committee's rankings bear much more of a resemblance to computer rankings.

Here's the committee's list of its Top 25 teams, as compared to a facsimile of the old BCS standings, our CFP mock standings and the two major polls:

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison
CFP Rank	Team	BCS	B/R Mock	AP	Coaches
1	Miss State	1	1	1	1
2	Florida State	2	4	2	2
3	Auburn	4	3	4	3
4	Ole Miss	6	5	7	9
5	Oregon	5	6	5	6
6	Alabama	3	2	3	4
7	TCU	11	9	10	10
8	Michigan State	9	10	8	5
9	Kansas State	10	11	11	11
10	Notre Dame	7	8	6	7
11	Georgia	8	7	9	8
12	Arizona	17	18	14	15
13	Baylor	15	13	12	12
14	Arizona State	13	17	15	14
15	Nebraska	16	14	17	16
16	Ohio State	14	16	13	13
17	Utah	18	21	18	18
18	Oklahoma	19	15	19	20
19	LSU	12	12	16	17
20	West Virginia	21	20	20	22
21	Clemson	20	19	22	21
22	UCLA	24	22	25	25
23	East Carolina*	22	24	21	19
24	Duke	25	30	24	24
25	Louisville	NR	29	30	34
NR	Marshall	23	23	23	23

*Top group-of-five team

Explanations of Rankings

BCS rankings are a simulation of the BCS formula used from 2004-13 with two exceptions: 1) The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Poll; 2) Sagarin and Massey rankings are their native systems instead of the non-MOV version used for the BCS.

CFP mock rankings are published weekly at Bleacher Report, with components including polls, computers, strength of schedule and conference championships. The full rankings are here.

A few highlights and thoughts from the committee's first rankings:

Committee's rankings don't behave like polls

That is a good thing, a very good thing. The biggest problem with the BCS in its latter years was that the polls were weighted disproportionately. One of major beneficiaries of this has been Alabama, which always seems to get more support in the polls than it deserves. The Tide, ranked No. 3 in both polls as well as the would-be BCS standings, are much more accurately placed by the committee at No. 6.

Strength of schedule matters, a lot

The Big Ten is being punished as a weak conference, as Michigan State might not be able to play its way into the playoff even if it wins out. Ohio State, at No. 16, virtually has no chance. The committee also is making an example out of Baylor, which is several spots behind its Big 12 rivals with identical records, because of its pathetic nonconference slate.

Where's Marshall?

The only team that's in the Top 25 in both polls and would-be BCS standings but omitted by the committee is Marshall, the only other undefeated team besides the Top 2 in its rankings. The Thundering Herd have won their eight games by an average of nearly 30 points, but their weak schedule clearly has been a huge detriment. As of now, East Carolina is the only team from the group-of-five conferences in the rankings.

The tournament starts now

Don't be fooled by the bracket that's being put out on TV (and everywhere else). Though there are four SEC West teams in the Top 6, there are four guaranteed losses among those teams as they still have to face each multiple times. Essentially, eight of the top nine teams—except Michigan State—all have a chance to play its way into the playoff, which leaves us with the one real surprise ...

No luck of the Irish

Despite three members with ties to the school (and are not covered under the recusal policy)—Condi Rice, Ty Willingham and Pat Haden—Notre Dame did not get much love from the committee. At No. 10, the Irish need some help to get into the playoff field even if they finish 11-1. It's a clear indication that the committee isn't fond of horse shoes or hand grenades: Notre Dame's close loss at Florida State doesn't count for much.

How Good/Bad Will Committee's Rankings Be?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 Oct 2014 04:18:00 +0000

The selection committee will unveil its first-ever College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night. With that, all other polls and rankings will be rendered meaningless.

Unlike the BCS standings, where a combination of polls and computer rankings are used, the committee's rankings are not mathematically projectable. Unless you can get inside the cranium (or the trash cans) of the 12 committee members, you will not know how they arrive at their respective rankings. In fact, since it's done by secret ballot, even their fellow committee members won't know how they voted.

But we'll press on with our own rankings and come Tuesday night we'll see how close they resemble what's put out by the committee. While the committee won't be projecting the New Year's Six bowl bids, we'll do that anyway as a public service.

COMPLETE CFP STANDINGS

The Playoff Teams

1. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs should be the undisputed top-ranked team, as one of only three undefeated teams with by far the best resume of the trio. But Mississippi State is in no position to relax, as its toughest two remaining games—against Alabama and Ole Miss—are both on the road.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

4. Florida State
While FSU might be behind three SEC West teams in the standings, it's best positioned to run the table and snag a playoff berth. There's no question the defending national champs will have a chance to continue their repeat quest as long as they run through the soft underbelly of the ACC unscathed.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

6. Oregon
The Ducks have had their mulligan, but probably won't get a second one. Plenty of work still lies ahead, including next week's game against Stanford, which denied Oregon the Pac-12 North title the past two seasons. But the strength of the Pac-12 will work in the Ducks' favor and put them in the playoff if they manage to win the conference.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

8. Notre Dame
For the time being, the Irish are just a hair ahead of the other contenders for the final playoff spot. They still have high-profile games against Arizona State and USC remaining, but they're susceptible to be bumped by another one-loss conference champion no matter how they finish.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

The First Four Out

2,3,5,7. Other SEC Teams
The SEC is angling to get a second team into the four-team playoff field. The path is open, but it's far from a foregone conclusion simply because all these teams still must face each other multiple times. The most likely scenario to produce a second SEC berth is for Georgia to win out and then upset an unbeaten or one-loss SEC West champion in the conference title game.
Projected bowls: Cotton, Fiesta and Orange

9. TCU
For now, TCU is mere percentage points behind Notre Dame in our standings for the final playoff spot. The Horned Frogs actually should be able to leapfrog the Irish should they remain unbeaten the rest of the way. If they can get through the next two weeks without a loss—at West Virginia and home to Kansas State—they will be heavily favored to claim at least a piece of the Big 12 title.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

10. Michigan State
The Spartans' beatdown of their cross-state rivals might've generated a lot of headlines, but that did little to improve their playoff prospects. MSU remains on the outside of the four-team field primarily because of its early-season loss at Oregon and the weakness of the Big Ten.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl

11/13. Kansas State/Baylor
The Big 12's lack of a signature win over a nonconference opponent will leave its champion scratching for a playoff spot. These two teams have an outside chance to steal a berth if the winner in their season finale ends up claiming the conference title in the event of a TCU stumble.
Projected bowl: Peach Bowl

Other Fun Facts

* Marshall, by virtue of being the only unbeaten non-power-five team, has seized the inside track to the group-of-five berth. East Carolina's strength-of-schedule advantage has been largely nullified at this point because of its power-five opponents' recent struggles. The only other teams in the mix are one-loss Colorado State and two-loss Boise State and Central Florida.

* The ACC might end up with more berths in the New Year's Six bowls than the Pac-12, Big Ten and/or Big 12 thanks to its tie-in with the Orange Bowl. Should Florida State earn a playoff berth as projected, a second ACC team will be taken despite the fact that no other conference team is ranked in the Top 15. Clemson is still favored for this bid, just ahead of Coastal Division leader Duke.

* With Ole Miss' loss at LSU, the dreaded circular three-way tie in the SEC West might've been avoided. Now, should there be a tie of three one-loss teams, head-to-head results likely will be enough to resolve the matter instead of having to dive deep into these procedures.

Messy Playoff Picture Ready to Greet Committee

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 20 Oct 2014 05:19:00 +0000

We're one week from the selection committee's first-ever rankings. The 12 members will not have an easy time of it in this inaugural season of the College Football Playoff. In fact, they might be looking at a scenario as messy as it was in 2007.

Remember that year, when a two-loss LSU team made it to the BCS title game? Well, the chaos this year actually started much earlier as we'll have no more than two major conference unbeaten teams at the end of the regular season—and we're not even out of October yet! It's already guaranteed that half of the four-team playoff field will be filled with teams with losses, maybe even two losses.

That will make the committee's job all the more difficult. Furthermore, with all five power conferences—plus Notre Dame—still very much in play to vie for the four playoff spots, somebody is going to be bitterly left out.

Here's how things stand at the halfway point of the season:

COMPLETE CFP STANDINGS

The Playoff Teams

1-2. Ole Miss/Mississippi State

These two teams are in a statistical dead heat in our standings and that's about right. It appears this year's Egg Bowl will be the biggest in history, with the winner in all likelihood getting a berth in the playoff. Of course, both teams still have challenging contests remaining before all that, so neither should be counting its chickens.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

5. Florida State

Thanks to a late (but legit) offensive pass interference call, the defending national champs lived to fight another day as a loss to Notre Dame would've almost assuredly knocked them out of the playoffs. The Seminoles' remaining schedule will be much more manageable than any of their potential playoff foes but they must stay vigilant because they have no margin for error.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

6. Oregon

Thanks to the flurry of upsets over the last two weeks, the Ducks are back in the playoff picture. Oregon has righted its own ship since its own upset loss to Arizona and now it is the Pac-12's best hope of landing a playoff spot. But since the Pac-12 is probably the best conference from top to bottom this season, the Ducks can't afford to look past anybody.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

8. TCU

One week after a dispiriting loss at Baylor, the Horned Frogs suddenly found themselves back on top of the Big 12 once again. Ironically, TCU isn't one of the teams that controls its own destiny in terms of winning the conference title. It also still faces many more major tests, including Kansas State's visit on Nov. 8.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

The First Four Out

3-4, 7. Auburn/Alabama, Georgia

The SEC is still very much hoping for multiple berths in the inaugural year of the playoff, but the odds are not in its favor simply because these conference teams must still beat each other up for another month. The Iron Bowl is shaping up to be a consolation game to determine not a spot in the playoff but maybe a New Years' Six bowl slot. Georgia will pin all of its hopes on running through the East unblemished and then pulling off a major upset in the SEC championship game.
Projected bowl: Multiple New Years' Six bowls

9. Notre Dame

As we noted in the immediate aftermath of their heartbreaking loss to FSU, the Irish are far from dead in terms of landing in the playoff. They'll need some help, but their resume stacks up favorably against most other one-loss teams. The lack of a conference championship game, or even a game on the final weekend of the season, might prove to be a major detriment to Notre Dame, though.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

10/13. Michigan State/Ohio State

The winner of the MSU/OSU game in two weeks in East Lansing is looking increasingly like the Big Ten's best hope for landing a playoff spot. But without question, the conference needs help, as it is at the moment the odd-man out among the power-five conferences. It's imperative for the winner of that game to finish 12-1 and then it must hope that the Big 12 or Pac-12 champ, and probably Notre Dame, incur at least a second loss.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl

11-12. Kansas State/Baylor
While TCU looks to have the inside track for the moment, these two teams actually control their own destiny in terms of winning the Big 12. And they'll meet on the last day of the regular season in Waco to perhaps decide exactly that, assuming they both go through the rest of the schedule unbeaten.
Projected bowl: Peach Bowl

Other Fun Facts

* Marshall, by being one of only four FBS unbeaten teams, is moving up with the hopes of seizing the automatic entry to a New Years' Six bowl granted to the top group-of-five champion. While East Carolina still has the best resume, its lone loss to South Carolina is losing its luster fast. Colorado State is another main contender, but it does not control its own fate in winning its division. Other teams now also finding themselves in the mix include two-loss Central Florida (American) and Boise State (Mountain West).

* It's probable that the SEC may land as many as four teams in the 12 New Years' Six bowl slots (including the playoff bowls), while two power-five conferences will be left with just single entries. It's nearly a given that the Big Ten will claim just one spot, but the Pac-12 might also be looking at just a playoff berth and no more. The Pac-12 South is ranked by Jeff Sagarin as the second-toughest division this year, yet it's not getting nearly as much respect in the polls.

* The selection committee will be releasing its first-ever rankings on Oct. 28, but that won't be nearly as interesting as its second ranking the following Tuesday. That's where we actually pick up clues as to whether the 12 members treat each week individually and not be swayed by their own confirmation bias or they've been infected by the same disease that's afflicted AP and coaches poll voters for years.

Ohio State Remains Top Priced Team in Nation

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 07 Oct 2014 23:52:00 +0000

By Jesse Lawrence

Week 7 of the college football season will begin this Thursday and Ohio State continues to own the most expensive home average on the secondary ticket market. Following the Buckeyes and their top-priced tickets are Georgia and Notre Dame, who have trailed as the second and third highest-priced teams for several weeks.

After posting a major upset against Alabama over the weekend, Mississippi has experienced a major boost in ticket price at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The win has catapulted the Rebels into the TiqIQ Top 25, which tracks the most expensive secondary market averages in college football, for the first time this season. The biggest drop in both rank and average price happened to Oregon this week after losing to Arizona on Saturday. UCLA has also dropped significantly in season average.

Ohio State remains firm as the top-priced school after posting their third straight win over the eeekend against Maryland. According to TiqIQ, the average price for Ohio State football tickets at home for their remaining games is $249. The Buckeyes will play their most expensive home game against Michigan on November 29, with an average price currently listed at $467.40. Though that game will be one of the most expensive games in college football this season, the get-in price starts at just $5. Ohio State will host Rutgers this weekend and will have its second most expensive game on its remaining schedule. The average secondary price for Ohio State vs Rutgers tickets is $224.49 with a get-in price starts at $64.

UGA football tickets had a slight increase in season average this week after the Bulldogs posted their third consecutive win against Vanderbilt last weekend. The season average for Georgia tickets is now $229, up 1% from last week’s average. The Bulldogs have trailed Ohio State as the top-priced school for several weeks, though each team holds an identical 4-1 record. Their most expensive game will be held on November 15 against Auburn, with the average secondary market price currently listed at $386.37 with a get-in price of $152.

Retaining the third highest average in college football this week is Notre Dame, with an average price of $216 on the secondary market. The Fighting Irish have experienced a 2% increase in price since last week, though the average still considerably trails in price to the Buckeyes and Bulldogs. They enter Week 7 with a 5-0 record and will host North Carolina at home. The most expensive home game on the remaining

Notre Dame football schedule will be on November 15 against Northwestern, with an average secondary price at $201.52 and a get-in price of $85. Undoubtedly the biggest mover this week is Ole Miss, who has jumped 14 spots into the No. 17 priciest school with a win against Alabama over the weekend. The average secondary price for Ole Miss football tickets is now $138, which is up 35% from last week. The Rebels will host top tier schools in Tennessee and Auburn over its next two home games, which also serve as the most expensive home games on the Ole Miss football schedule. An October 18 meeting with Tennessee currently has a secondary average of $261.09 while Auburn heads to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on November 1 for a game with an average price of $253.48.

Experiencing the biggest drop in both placement and price rank is Oregon, who dropped four spots to No. 19 and 5% in season average. The average price for Oregon football tickets is $136. Such a drop is largely due to the Ducks losing to Arizona over the weekend and picking up their first loss of the season. The most expensive game on the Oregon football schedule will be played against Stanford on November 1, with the average secondary price currently $216.27.

Jesse Lawrence is the CEO of TiqIQ.com, a leading online ticket search engine.