BCS Guru

In Defense of the Pac-10

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:33:00 +0000

When it comes to propaganda and publicity, the Pac-10 is woefully ill-prepared in this arms race. Of all the BCS conference, no one undersells itself better than the Pac-10. If USC isn't such a media darling and hated around the country for its glitz and glam (not to mention excellence), the Pac-10 would be completely unheard of. Out of sight, out of mind. It's a pity because you can make a reasonable argument that the Pac-10 really is the best conference in college football, perhaps 10 years...

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The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 10)

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 01:59:00 +0000

The Guru's Blogpoll ballot, with notes below: RankTeamDelta 1 Texas 2 Alabama 3 Florida 4 TCU 2 5 Boise State 1 6 Cincinnati 1 7 Pittsburgh 6 8 Georgia Tech 2 9 LSU 1 10 Oregon 5 11 USC 1 12 Ohio State 4 13 Utah 1 14 Iowa 5 15 Houston 16 Arizona 2 17 Miami (Florida) 3 18 Penn State 7 19 South Florida 2 20 Oklahoma State 2 21 Brigham Young 2 ...

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The Biggest Game Was Played on C-SPAN

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:48:00 +0000

While you're digesting all of those scores from Saturday night, the most important one might've flown under the radar: 220-215. Those five votes could mean the difference of all the bowl money ever spent in the history of college football ... and then some. Yep, the price tag for that health care bill is in excess of $1 trillion. (Sure hope you have an offshore account somewhere, preferably with funds not in U.S. dollar.) OK, staying on point and returning to our frivolous sporting pursuit...

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This Could Be Shakeup Saturday

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:29:00 +0000

All the bowl talk could all vaporize if a few games don't go according to plan. But fear not, with the SEC and Big Ten refs carrying Blackberries to receive instant messages from their respective league offices, the "better" teams will find a way to win at the end. Trust me. ★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: LSU at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The past of LSU meets its present. Nick Saban and Les Miles each led the Bayou Tigers to a BCS title, and this game may determine who gets to go for a second...

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The Season's First BCS Bowl Cast

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:21:00 +0000

Let's go first thing first, since I made the pledge to investigate last week's inaccurate projection of the No. 2 team in the BCS Standings. Well, the findings turned out to be as simple as what the Warren Commission uncovered: A single shooter with a magic bullet. Except that it didn't require the entire weight of the federal government and thousands of pages to state the obvious. The voters did it, basically, particularly the Harris voters. As of Week 8, Alabama was safely at No. 2, with...

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The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 9)

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 04:24:00 +0000

The Guru's Blogpoll ballot, with notes below: RankTeamDelta 1 Texas 3 2 Alabama 1 3 Florida 1 4 Boise State 1 5 Oregon 1 6 TCU 3 7 Cincinnati 3 8 LSU 9 Iowa 10 Georgia Tech 1 11 Penn State 1 12 USC 5 13 Pittsburgh 3 14 Utah 1 15 Houston 1 16 Ohio State 5 17 California 3 18 Arizona 4 19 Notre Dame 5 20 Miami (Florida) 1 21 South Florida ...

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The Revolution Was Televised on ABC

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 03:27:00 +0000

1453. 1644. 1917. And now, Halloween 2009. Like the Byzantine, Ming and Romanov empires, all good things must come to an end. Such was the case for the Trojan Dynasty that has ruled the Pac-10 since 2002. In retrospect, it was easy to see that this was a rebuilding year for USC. It lost most of its defensive stalwarts, including an entire linebacking corps that went among the first 38 picks in the NFL draft. It lost its star quarterback, who now hot dogs it for the New York Jets. It even lost...

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Who's Your (Sugar) Daddy?

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:54:00 +0000

Mike Gundy may be a man now (at least he thinks so), but part of his everyday challenge is very much the burden foisted upon every boy the world over - making his daddy proud. Gundy's daddy, metaphorically speaking, of course, is T. Boone Pickens, a Texas oil man. A man who's given over a quarter of a billion bucks to the Oklahoma State athletic program. A man whose name graces the Cowboys' brand-spanking new stadium. And Gundy has no better opportunity to please his (sugar) daddy than this...

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Iowa Lacks Style ... Does It Lack Substance?

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:00:00 +0000

After the 2001 season, the BCS forced the computers remaining in the BCS formula to remove margin of victory (MOV) as an element in their respective algorithms. The reason, ostensibly, is that it discourages teams from running up the score since they wouldn't benefit from it. Well, they should've asked all the pollsters to remove their eyeballs so they can only check the scores in Braille. We're more than halfway done in the 2009 season, and the BCS Standings provides a clear picture: Style...

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The Guru's Report Card (Updated)

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:44:00 +0000

The Guru's Report Card, through the second BCS Standings in 2009: (Click to enlarge) The only significant error this week is the misplacement of USC. I thought the Trojans would lose a few votes because of their closer-than-expected home victory over Oregon State. That didn't happen, so they are a couple of spots higher than my projections. The rest are pretty much spot-on, if you don't mind me saying so myself. At least I'm willing to stake my reputation each week to run these projections,...

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The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 8)

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:21:00 +0000

The Guru's Week 8 BlogPoll ballot, with more in-depth explanations below: RankTeamDelta 1 Alabama 2 Florida 3 TCU 8 4 Texas 1 5 Boise State 1 6 Oregon 7 USC 2 8 LSU 9 Iowa 10 Cincinnati 11 Georgia Tech 1 12 Penn State 1 13 Utah 2 14 Houston 4 15 Oklahoma State 4 16 Pittsburgh 4 17 West Virginia 18 Virginia Tech 2 19 Miami (Florida) 12 20 California 21 Ohio...

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Almost Famous

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 05:26:00 +0000

Lane Kiffin came close. He was accused of not trying to win against Florida, but no such allegation may be lodged against him and his Tennessee Volunteers this week. Had Daniel Lincoln put a little more arc on his field goal attempts, we would be here discussing how the next BCS Standings would be completely shaken up. Instead, it's a weekend of what it might have been. Throw in another Sparty, No! moment, what we are left with is simply status quo at the top of the BCS Standings. Or is...

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Surviving Trap Week

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 06:54:00 +0000

This week may be the calm before the storm. On Halloween, some of this year's BCS title contenders will be facing virtual elimination games. This week, their goal will be to get by overmatched opponents in the so-called "trap games" without suffering any damage. Florida has the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party next week (I know the schools now frown upon the moniker, but since when do I give a flying fig about the eggheads and their pusillanimous sensitivities?). Mind you, Georgia is...

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A Pecking Order Emerges

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 00:00:00 +0000

It's only the first BCS Standings of the 2009 season, but there are enough clues to provide a glimpse at what will be the narrative the rest of the year, leading to the BCS title game at the Rose Bowl next Jan. 7. * It is almost assured that, for the fourth consecutive season, an SEC team will be in the BCS title game and for the first time since the 1946 game, a Southern team will make an appearance at the Granddaddy of 'Em All. It's unlikely that either Florida or Alabama will lose a game...

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The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 7)

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 19:03:00 +0000

The Guru's Week 7 BlogPoll, with notes below: RankTeamDelta 1 Alabama 2 Florida 3 Texas 1 4 Boise State 1 5 USC 1 6 Oregon 1 7 Miami (Florida) 2 8 LSU 2 9 Iowa 2 10 Cincinnati 2 11 TCU 3 12 Georgia Tech 3 13 Penn State 4 14 Brigham Young 2 15 Utah 10 16 Virginia Tech 11 17 West Virginia 5 18 Houston 19 Oklahoma State 5 20 Pittsburgh 21 Ohio State...

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First BCS Projection, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 05:14:00 +0000

A couple of upsets, a few near misses, and a baseball game that just would not end made for an interesting Saturday, the eve of the 2009 season's first BCS Standings. Florida and Alabama both escaped with tough home wins against SEC foes. Texas held off Oklahoma again. And USC withstood an Irish rally to win its eighth straight against Notre Dame. Virginia Tech and Ohio State weren't as fortunate. The Hokies are now officially out of the BCS title chase, and perhaps even the one for the ACC...

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Fat Charlie's Last Chance?

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 06:52:00 +0000

Much has been made about Saturday's game being Charlie Weis' best chance to beat USC since the Bush Push Classic in 2005. The Irish, mired in a seven-year futility against the Trojans, might not get a better shot anytime soon if they don't somehow pull it off this year. The game is at home - they can let the grass grow. The Trojans have a freshman quarterback and a sputtering offense. Jimmy Clausen is a true Heisman candidate and can't wait to finally pick apart the USC defense. It all...

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An Interview with Richard Billingsley

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:49:00 +0000

Of the six computer ratings in the BCS formula, the Billingsley Report is unquestionably the most controversial. And of the seven programmers (Anderson & Hester count as two), Richard Billingsley is undoubtedly the most opinionated and colorful. The Billingsley Report has been part of the BCS since its second season, 1999, but the data goes all the way back to 1869, to Princeton vs. Rutgers, the first college football game ever played. With the 2009 BCS Standings set to debut on Sunday,...

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Final Simulated BCS Standings

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 16:50:00 +0000

Next Sunday, the BCS will release its first official standings for the 2009 season, so this is the final Simulated BCS Standings. As has been the practice since our inception, beginning next week, the Guru will release the projections for the BCS Standings by Saturday night, following the final game of consequence for the evening - in next week's case, the Missouri-Oklahoma State game that kicks off at 9:15 p.m. ET. On Sundays, the Guru will publish the most comprehensive BCS Standings...

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The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 6)

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 19:26:00 +0000

The Guru's Week 6 BlogPoll, with notes below: RankTeamDelta 1 Alabama 2 2 Florida 1 3 Boise State 1 4 Texas 2 5 Virginia Tech 2 6 USC 7 Oregon 1 8 Ohio State 1 9 Miami (Florida) 1 10 LSU 5 11 Iowa 4 12 Cincinnati 1 13 South Florida 1 14 TCU 15 Georgia Tech 2 16 Brigham Young 17 Penn State 1 18 Kansas 2 19 South Carolina 5 20 Nebraska 21 Auburn ...

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Best New Rivalry in College Football?

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 15:56:00 +0000

I know, this isn't supposed to be an SEC blog. It just seems that way lately. But hey, the SEC happened to produce the last three BCS title winners. And they just happen to be playing against each other this Saturday. So what do you want me to do, ignore the news? The reason that Florida and LSU are becoming college football's best new rivalry is excellence. Both programs have made quantum leaps in the dawn of the 21st century, becoming the only two schools with multiple BCS titles. This is...

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SEC Bloodbath ... Coming Soon

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 15:33:00 +0000

For the second week in a row, the top of the BCS Standings (Simulated) are dominated by SEC teams. Alabama, LSU and Florida are ranked 1-2-3 this week. This week's standings are just about as good as the real thing, with both polls (Coaches and Harris) and five of the six BCS computer ratings available. Anderson & Hester made its 2009 debut this week, leaving just Peter Wolfe, who does not publish his rankings until the first actual BCS Standings are released (this season on Oct....

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The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 5)

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 04:57:00 +0000

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot this week. Notes below: RankTeamDelta 1 Florida 2 Texas 3 Alabama 4 Boise State 5 LSU 6 USC 7 Virginia Tech 8 Oregon 9 Ohio State 10 Miami (Florida) 7 11 Cincinnati 3 12 South Florida 3 13 Auburn 7 14 TCU 4 15 Iowa 3 16 Brigham Young 6 17 Georgia Tech 6 18 Penn State 6 19 Missouri 2 20 Kansas 2 21 Wisconsin 22 West Virginia 23...

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Fall of Troy? Not So Fast

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 03:06:00 +0000

Pete Carroll's motto is "Win Forever." And by and large, that's what he has done at USC since becoming the head coach in 2001. After starting 1-4 in his career at Troy, Carroll has laid waste to the college football landscape. Since 2002, the Trojans have gone 83-10. The 10 games they did lose were by a combined total of 39 points (by comparison, Cal lost to Oregon by 39 points just last week). During that span, each game USC lost was by seven or fewer points. In fact, the largest margin of...

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The Fatal Flaw of the BCS

noreply@blogger.com (Samuel Chi) — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:50:00 +0000

What's wrong with the BCS? Look no further than the two polls that account for two-thirds of the BCS Standings. This week's Simulated BCS Standings are just about as good as the real thing, with nearly 90 percent of the data for the actual standings available - both the Coaches and Harris polls and four of the six computers. But the near-fatal flaw of the BCS Standings becomes immediately evident as soon as the Harris Poll is released. With another year potentially to be dominated by parity...

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