Behind the Plate - Free Fantasy Baseball Advice

Getting Tired of Next Year

noreply@blogger.com (Chris Mulligan) — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 04:19:00 +0000

This was supposed to be the year. The Cubs were supposed to be built to win it all.

Great starting pitching. Best offense in the NL. An above average bullpen. Great chemistry.

All of the necessary ingredients to win it all added up to the second straight season that the Cubs were sent home via the broom.

So what was missing? It was simply a lack of clutch performances. Ryan Dempster tied the all time Cubs record of 14 wins at Wrigley Field and walked seven hitters...at Wrigley Field. The offense was completely inept. Absolutely nobody hit in the clutch, let alone hit consistently whatsoever. Then there was the four errors in Game 2, three coming in one inning. Put a tent on that circus because it was ugly.

This team had Cubs fans finally believing that this could actually be the year. 100 years. 97 wins and a Division Title had us puffy chested all season long and heading into the playoffs. Cubs fans felt like tires slowly deflating. Before the NLDS we were solid and had bounce. As the debacle ensued, the air slowly escaped until we were left empty. The same thing happened to the players. By the 5th inning of Game 2 the looks on the players faces and their body language told me all I needed to know. This series is over. They looked like a defeated team from then on.

The one player who showed up to play a baseball game for the Cubs was Carlos Zambrano. I felt for Zambrano personally. The way the Cubs wasted the stuff Carlos Zambrano had in Game 2 was agonizing. The guy that everybody thought would lose his mind if the Cubs were in trouble showed more focus and concentration than anyone on the team. My respect for him has grown even more after watching his performance and composure that night.

I'm not questioning the Cubs' effort. I'm questioning their mental toughness and focus. This was a team that led the league in come-from-behind wins but couldn't come close to one in three games.

Yet another painful loss. Something that we're all too accustomed to. There is a national view that is shared by many that the Cubs fans somewhat embrace the history of losing. We enjoy taking on that Lovable Loser moniker. The casual Cubs fan may indeed feel that way. The real Cubs fan feels ripped apart on this inside is screaming for them to just win it already.

Cubs beat writer for the Chicago Tribune, Paul Sullivan, wrote in his Oct. 5 article after the Game 3 loss to the Dodgers, "There's always next year. Win or lose. Cubs fans can count on that." Gee, thanks Paul. That's the kind of happy-go-lucky crap I can't stand.

When is it going to be this year?

Back from Internet Annexation

noreply@blogger.com (Chris Mulligan) — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 04:30:00 +0000

Hello baseball fans I'm finally back. It's been almost two months without a PC and with very limited Internet access but the laptop has been purchased (with help from fantasy winnings) and the DSL has been activated and I feel like a normal human again. I feel like I'm reconnected with Planet Earth. Of course I'm always eager to talk fantasy baseball and there will be no offseason for me or this website so stick around. I apologize for the long article drought but it was out of my control and I'm ready to jump back in headlong.

As most of you know, Paul Singman will no longer be writing for Behind the Plate as he is pursuing his writing career at more established websites and I wish him all the luck. Paul is a great guy and a very good writer and I have no doubts that he will find great success in his ventures. You never know, we may see him back here someday.

There are many websites out there that are more established and have more options and opinions. However, I will put fantasy expertise and knowledge of the game and its players up there with any fantasy expert out there. I'm not always 100% accurate but nobody is. I do this so that we can all get better at fantasy baseball together. I even help my friends that I compete against because I want to see them get better.

I'll be trying to post articles on a daily basis. In the coming days I will be posting new articles that I've been itching to get out there. I don't comment much on real baseball on this site but, of course, I have to get some stuff off of my chest about my Chicago Cubs. Tragic. Also, a piece on my early predictions of the Top 10 Starting Pitchers for '09 and where Cliff Lee ranks among them. I will also post my review for Hatchette Publishing on Beyond Belief, the story of Josh Hamilton, written by the man himself with Tim Keown. It's really an amazing book and definitely something you have to check out.

Stick around!

Chris Mulligan

Magic Wandy + Note

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 05:10:00 +0000

I'm sure that most people do not know this, but Wandy Rodriguez has a 3.76 ERA right now through 125 Innings. Considering that he has 115 Strikeouts to go with, this usually mocked fantasy commodity has actually been valuable this season. Let's take a look at what Wandy has been doing differently this season than in past years, when his ERAs have been in the 4.00s and 5.00s.

Hmmmm, strangely enough, most of Wandy's peripheral stats have not changed between the two years. That's consistency. Besides a slight increase in his Ks per 9 Innings, Left on Base Percentage, and Batting Average on Balls in Play, there is virtually no difference between Wandy's '07 and '08 seasons. Yet, for some reason, there is a .82 difference between his ERA over the two years. How to explain this...

Well, simply enough, his xFIP accounts for .57 of the .82 points of ERA difference, meaning Wandy has gotten slightly better defensive play behind him this year. Still, there are .25 points of ERA remaining in question.

That 1/4th of a point of ERA I would just check off to incalculable luck. We're talking about 125 and 183 Innings of work over the two years, and a decent portion of these stats have just reached their normalizing point, so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

What I would worry about, is winning your league for this year. Wandy is currently owned in 33% of ESPN leagues, a number that probably would be higher if he had not left his most recent start early with a strained oblique. Worry only a little, he is listed as day-to-day.

Gone are the days when Wandy Rodriguez was not pertinent in fantasy discussion, Wandy, welcome to fantasy relevance! (at least until you get absolutely rocked in your next start).

~~~

On a completely different note, I'm sorry to say this may be my last post here over at Behind the Plate Fantasy. Derek Carty of The Hardball Times has asked me to contribute to the Fantasy Focus section over there, an offer I couldn't refuse. Writing about fantasy baseball is just one of many aspects of my life, so contributing to both blogs at once, including my obligations over at MLBFO, would be too much. Looking back over the 4 months I've been writing for this site, I hope I've given you at least one nugget of information that has helped you place in your fantasy league this year.

In case you forgot, there is another contributor to this site, the founder actually, and his name is Chris Mulligan. I got in contact with him today, yes he is alive and well, and he should be able to start providing content again by the end of this week. It's been fun,

Paul Singman

Saturday Link Dump

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Sat, 30 Aug 2008 05:01:00 +0000

New MLBFO article up. This week it is fantasy related; it discusses the acceptance of some manipulative maneuvers, especially intentional benching. Read only if your interested.

Over at Athletics Nation, a - four - part - interview with the A's managing owner Lew Wolff took place. If your not an A's fan, it might get boring at times, but otherwise answers show some insight on what it's like to own a baseball team.

Marc Hulet over at Fangraphs had an interesting article yesterday on rushing prospects and a team's motivation for doing so, citing Travis Snyder and the Blue Jays as an example.

Alex Eisenberg over at THT released his breakdown of picks 44-49 of the draft. In case you missed it, here's 36-44, 27-36, 18-26, and Part 1. Alex uses video footage to break down prospect's mechanics. Good stuff.

Okay that should occupy you this weekend, so enjoy it.

Keep an Eye On This Guy

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:19:00 +0000

For those of you that do not know Adam Lind, allow me to introduce him to you. Adam Lind, uninformed reader; uninformed reader, Adam Lind. Okay, now that you both know each other, let's begin to learn a bit more about the other.

Adam Lind was a third-round pick in the 2004 draft. He would make it to the majors in 2006 after OPSing 1.096 in Triple-A that year, and from my last article we know that is a very impressive number. In September of that year, Lind would get 65 Plate Appearances. With those 65 PAs, Lind would put up the slash line of .367/.415/.600. However, Lind's 2007 season would come as a disappointment, he did not hit well in either the majors or Triple-A.

Nevertheless, in 2008 the Blue Jays started the season with Lind as their starting left-fielder and he did disappoint more. After a horrendous April, in May Lind was sent back down to the minors. In Triple-A Lind reinvented himself, batting .328 with a .389 OBP and a .534 SLG%. Come the end of June, new manager Cito Gaston decided to recall him.

Since that time, Lind has batted .319 and has a OPS of .882. He has shown decent pop with 9 Home Runs and 11 Doubles in that span as well. Owned in only 40% of ESPN leagues, Lind is an intriguing add in almost any format. Although the real value from Lind may come next year, as his power develops farther as he enters his first full-MLB season as a 25/26 year-old.

Keep an eye on this guy.

Add Him If You Want...

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 05:03:00 +0000

Nelson Cruz was called-up from the minors yesterday. Get it?...?...?...? Well if you don't get the joke, then you don't understand who Nelson Cruz is. Let me explain. Nelson Cruz is currently 28 years-old, which is rather old for a Triple-A player. Most "prospects" that are 28 years-old are either destined to stay in the minors/become at best utility men or LOOGYs. There is the occasional surprise, Brad Ziegler comes to mind as a player who has the chance to have a successful major league career. He 28 years-old and made his major league debut this year. Hooray for free-agent eligibility at age 34!

Got a little side-tracked there, but Ziegler is a great comparison for Nelson Cruz in all aspects but one; Cruz has been in the majors before. According to Cot's Contracts, Cruz has 1.042 years of service time. I am unsure of the exact workings of service time, but to makes things easier, Cruz has essentially been given two shots so far in his major league career to prove himself. In 2006 he was given 137 Plate Appearances, and in 2007 he was given 328. Over that 465 PA span, Cruz performed less than admirably, posting a .645 OPS in '06 and .671 OPS in '07. That is the story of Nelson Cruz' major league career... now let's take a look at Nelson Cruz in the minors.

Before we (and by "we" I mean "I", but I try to use "we" so you, the reader feel more connected to the article) break down this chart "together", I'll make two notes first. The astute reader* will have already noticed I previously said Nelson Cruz was 28 years-old and in the chart he as listed as 27. Well that is because he is currently 28 years-old. However the site I got the stats from uses the age of the player at the beginning of the season and since Nelson Cruz has a summer birthday, he gets the birthday cake and pinàta mid-season. The second note is that Cruz started playing professional ball in 2001 at age of 20/21, but his first few seasons in Short-Season and Single-A were rather unspectacular.

Okay, so now that the text is so far away from the chart ~~I'll~~ we'll be referring to that it's annoying, let's begin. Actually I'll just jump to the obvious conclusion from the chart, Nelson Cruz owns Triple-A pitching. But how good is a 1.171 OPS in the minors, do hitters regularly post ridiculous hitting lines like that? Is Cruz the beneficiary of one of those ridiculously hitter-friendly leagues and ballparks?

Some players to compare Cruz against, I'll give you their best OPS in a season at Triple-A or Double-A: Evan Longoria - .887, Troy Tulo - 1.036 (AA), Alex Gordon - 1.001 (AA), Ian Kinsler - .812, Alex Rodriguez - 1.012, Travis Hafner - 1.022. By these references, you should not come to the conclusion that Nelson Cruz is going to be better than Alex Rodriguez or even Alex Gordon because the players referenced were all "rushed" to the majors more quickly than Cruz was. Trust me, if at age 28 Alex Rodriguez was in Triple-A his OPS could have been 1.500 for all I know. I would have referenced some 28 year-old rookies, but as I said earlier they are either bad, destined to be bench players if they even make it to the majors, or have had injuries. Hafner is the best example of the group because his 1.022 OPS Triple-A season came at age 25 at least.

Still, Nelson Cruz' numbers this season, and last year's even, are nothing short of impressive. A (scroll up) .729 SLG% for God's sake! After a quick check, and I found out that the Pacific Coast League (PCL), the league Cruz plays in, is indeed a hitter-friendly league. However, the actual ballpark of the Rangers' Triple-A affiliate is slightly pitcher-friendly. How much you should adjust the numbers and how much the two contrasting elements (park and league) cancel each other out is not something I plan on calculating right now. Whatever, it doesn't matter, Cruz' stats are still way better than any other PCL player's.

With the Rangers out of playoff contention, it's once again time to give Cruz the chance to prove himself against major-league pitching. He hasn't been improving anything down in Triple-A except his ego the past two seasons.

Yesterday the Rangers came to their senses and called-up Cruz for Monday night's game. He must not have realized because he put on a show! Cruz went 3-for-5 with a double, a home run, and 3 RBIs. Interestingly and depressingly enough, in 2007 in his July 28th debut, Cruz crushed two Homers and had 5 RBI, so fashionable appearances are nothing new for him.

As far as your fantasy team is concerned, whether or not to pick him up is all dependent on your current outfield situation and if your in a waivers league, how aware your league-mates are of him. If you've got the roster spot, Cruz is probably the best add available right now, his upside is astronomical compared to other F/As.

That's really all I have to say about Nelson Cruz, although if your into this type of player, take a look at Dallas McPherson, he's quite another story.

*I starred the term "astute reader" because I do have to give credit to the writers of The Book, Tango, MGL, and ummm that other guy whose name is always last and no one's ever heard of. . . Dolphin! Andy Dolphin, that's it! Anyway, the term "astute reader" appears in that book, according to Amazon's Search Inside. . . hmmm, only two times. I thought it was more, but I highlight the phrase not only to give them credit but because it may as well be the most inconspicuous, clever way to belittle the reader because if a reader did not realize what you go on to point out, they clearly are not one of the "astute readers" of the book, or in my case the article.

Saturday Link Dump

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 15:22:00 +0000

Another Saturday has arrived, which means another SLD has as well. Here is the link to my latest edition of Outside the Box. The future of Johan Santana is discussed and an interesting comparable is made. Some nice double line graphs towards the end, I'm sure if I knew anything about excel they probably would have been easy to make...

In the last paragraph of that article, I link to an article by Derek Carty of THT, who also did an analysis of Santana, however he incorporated PITCHf/x data to come to a slightly different conclusion than me. Good read.

Dave Studeman, also at The Hardball Times used Google Motion Charts to track the Winning Percent of each team over the last decade. Not an interesting read but a fun watch.

Marc Hulet over at Fangraphs took at look at how the members of this off-season's Bedard trade are faring. Mariners fans lash back in the comments.

Tango Tiger, as you already may know, is conducting his Fan's Scouting Report. Any team you watch frequently, he asks you fill out a form grading each individual player's defensive abilities. The more people participate, the better than results!

Enjoy your Saturday.

One Swisher Please

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 05:05:00 +0000

I have no idea what a Swisher is and Urban Dictionary didn't' help out much, but I do know about a certain Nick Swisher. Funny, stupid, goofy, ugly - whatever you want to call him doesn't matter, what does is that he is having an extremely disappointing season, just like (insert your favorite TV show here). Traded for three prospects in the off season, two of them, Ryan Sweeney and Gio Gonzalez, have already made it to the Bigs. Perhaps GM Kenny Williams wants that one back. Not just yet.

Don't look now, but Swisher has blasted 3 home runs in his last 3 games bringing his season total to an even 20. That puts him on pace for 26 for the year, not a great mark for a RF/1B, but not horrible by any means, especially for a down season.

The real killer for Swisher this year has been his paltry .235 Average, which right now actually stands higher than what it has been at for most of the season. This has been the combination of bad luck and well, just Swisher's inability to hit for a high average. In his best years he would hit around .250-.260 Average, which leaves no cushion on which to fall if bad luck kicks in. A .265 BABIP (.345 xBABIP) is the reason his average is below his standards and if you adjust his Avg. accordingly, it would rise all the way up to .306.

Do I think Nick Swisher's Batting Average should be .306? No. But it should steadily rise till the end of the season to around the .250 range. Although it does not matter what the end of the season numbers look like, as fantasy owners we should care only about what he does from exactly now till the end of the season. What he has done so far this season is irrelevant, unless you already own him or you are trading for him, in which case make sure to mention how bad he has done this season.

Swisher may never again hit 35 Home Runs like he did in his break-out sophomore season three years ago, but what I see in him is this; a 28 year-old multi-positional fielder entering his prime power years in a hitter-friendly park and good lineup, who will be undervalued next season due to an unlucky year. Putting all hyphens aside, Swisher is not a .230-.240 hitter, he may not even be a .250-.260 hitter. More promising than anything else has been his spike in Contact%, which was anywhere from 71 to 77% the past couple of years and has risen to 80% this year. Although i have no actual proof that a higher Contact Percentage leads to a higher Average, I would imagine that it does, especially when your hitting Line Drives 22.5% of the time.

Overall Swisher is someone I seeing finishing the season strong and can be had for cheap, even for free in 30% of leagues. If your one of those looking towards next season already, consider him a sleeper candidate.

Defying the Gods

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 05:07:00 +0000

Kevin Youkilis was first made famous in the book Moneyball where he played the character of Kevin Youkilis, a man who was touted as the "Greek God of Walks" and was traded for Athletics' GM Billy Beane for 24 hours until Beane canceled his own trade trading himself. Crazy I know, but enough of that. This year Youkilis has made a name for himself in a different way, a more convential way --- the way Anna Kournikova never could --- by performing well.

This is not to say Youkilis has not performed well enough in past years, but this year Yoooooouuuuukk, as a Sox fan would say, has been "awhsome". Outside of Boston however, this deli-meat-man-look-a-like is not getting the recognition he deserves. Let's see how he ranks in some metrics:

.320 AVG - 8th
.965 OPS - 10th
8.29 RC/27 -11th
2.21 WPA/LI - 28th

Kevin Youkilis is tenth in the entire MLB in OPS! Heads starting to turn a bit? As far as what has changed for Youk from the last few years to this year is quite surprising. The nickname I mentioned earlier, "The Greek God of Walks", was very true for Youk as his Walk to Strikeout ratio was consistently at the .75 mark, meaning he would walk 3 times for every 4 Ks. That is above-average with the MLB average .50.

This year, Youk's BB/K ratio has dropped to about the league-average, it is .49 right now. Most players in breakout seasons see mild to sharp increases in walk rates, but Youk has surprisingly seen a sharp dive in his. This rate decrease can be attributed to one main component in particular, the Swing %. Major league average Swing%, which is simply the percentage of pitches a batter swings at, is consistently around 46% every year. From 05-07 Youk's Swing% average at a ridiculously low 37.49%, well below average. That percentage has shot up to 43.36%, still below-average and a patient hitter's percentage, but it shows that Youk is acting aggressive at the plate this year, well at least for him. So far, it has worked out well for the Red Sox and fantasy owners alike.

Perhaps he felt he had a reputation to uphold and took too many pitches he could mash last year to get the walk. Whatever the case, there's no doubt the monster has been let loose this year. There's no denying the success of Kevin Youkilis and it's about time he's gotten more recognition for it to make the jump from star to super-star. Perhaps it's time for a nickname change...

Quick Note

noreply@blogger.com (Chris Mulligan) — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 15:25:00 +0000

I apologize for the lack of posts lately but my town was just ravaged by a tornado, I'm moving this week, and my brother is on leave from Iraq. Needless to say, it's been an insane week with another insane week to follow this week. I'm hoping to get something up by Wed. but I don't know if I'll have my computer set up at my new house with Internet by then. But Paul will be around and posting so keep checking back. Thanks guys.

Chris Mulligan

Saturday Link Dump

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 17:17:00 +0000

I've got a new MLB Front Office article up. Definitely worth a read although it is not exactly fantasy related. Ever wanted to know exactly how many more wins a pitcher with a 3.50 ERA contributes to a team than a 4.00 ERA? That's one of the things you'll learn from reading the article.

In other news concerning me, I now control a new feature over at MLB Front Office called The Board. For The Board I list the 50 players who I believe will produce the most from now till the end of the season. It's a great guide for those blockbuster trades everybody loves to do. Brandon Funston is being taken over.

This week was a little dry in terms of good articles but there are a couple worth mentioning:

Victor Wang over at THT did an interesting analysis of the two Mark Teixeria trades and how each team, especially the Braves, fared overall.

A colleague of mine, Kevin Orris, was able to set up an interview with Olympic Short-Stop Brian Barden. Interesting read.

That's really all for this week, enjoy your Saturday.

Three Young Men, and One Old Guy

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 05:13:00 +0000

Considering how closely I followed the call-up of Gio Gonzalez, I feel it is only appropriate to discuss how his first career start went. His line looked something like this:

6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

In terms of ERA, it was not good with a 6.00 ERA. In terms of WHIP, it was good with only a 1.00 WHIP. The 4 Ks in 6 innings is a good sign of Gio's K potential even though it is only a 6.00 K/9. Gonzalez retired his first two batters faced, then let four consecutive batters reach, including a 3-run Home Run by Rod Barajas. After that however, Gonzalez settled in very nicely, retiring 16 of the last 18 batters he faced. Overall a very solid rookie debut. If he makes another start in 5 games it would be against the Rays, a team I would strongly consider benching him against. If he has another solid start, I would start him against everyone except the elite offensive teams.

In other news, rookie Ian Kennedy will get a few starts in the Yankees rotation while Joba is on the DL. Kennedy has had one of those typical "Quadruple-A" seasons; dominating in the minors, struggling in the majors. Kennedy has a 7.41 ERA over 9 starts in the majors and a 2.14 ERA in Triple-A in... you guessed it... 9 starts. Whether or not he will put it together this time up is beyond me, but I will suggest not picking him up in any formats because he's likely to lose his rotation spot as soon as Joba returns in a few weeks.

The Seattle Mariners have designated Jose Vidro for assignment and have called up prospect Wladimir Balentien. Balentien is someone I've briefly mentioned before and he should be an add in AL-only leagues. In mixed leagues I would consider adding him mainly to trade. If he gets off to a hot start in Seattle, Balentien might command a decent haul in a trade---similar to the hype surrounding Jay Bruce when he was called up. Balentien did have a .937 OPS in the minors, but has yet to find away to translate that into the majors. However Balentien performs in the majors should not affect his playing time, remember that his performance is comapred against the player's spot he's filling, Jose Vidro, who had a comical .612 OPS amassed primarily as a DH.

Everyone take a sigh of relief, Brett Favre has been traded to the Jets. It will be only about another day or two before analysis of the trade dwindles down. I hope.

Ian Stewart Loves Todd Helton's Back

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:30:00 +0000

Although Todd Helton has a reputation for keeping rookies out, it appears one rookie, Ian Stewart, is besting Helton at his own game. Because Helton has been out with a back injury, Ian Stewart has a place in the Rockies infield at third base, with Garrett Atkins covering Helton's usual position at first. Helton's injury appeared minor at first, but latest reports say Helton may not be able to play again this season. That is excellent news if you are Ian stewart or anyone who owns Stewart in a fantasy league as his playing time will not be question for the immediate future.

For the first half of the season, Ian Stewart bounced back and forth between the majors and minors. He would always mash Triple-A pitching and struggle against major league pitching. Everyone was disappointed in Ian Stewart's major league performance and even though he was (and still is) only 23, expectations were high for this 2003 top-10 selection. After the All-Star break and after Helton's injury on July 3rd, the Rockies decided to give IStew another shot. Man did he turn heads. Here's a breakdown of Stewart's season so far, pre and post All-Star Break.

	AB	HR	RBI	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO
Pre All-Star	55	3	5	3	.218	.283	.473	.255
Post All-Star	54	1	15	10	.370	.485	.537	.167

In almost the same amount of at bats, Stewart has been far-more productive in the second-half. As a fantasy bonus, he is eligible at both 2nd and 3rd base and he leads both of those positions in production over the last 30 days.

I included his Isolated Power (ISO) in the chart to show that even though his Slugging Percentage is higher Post All-Star break, he is not getting more extra-base hits by any means. The higher Slugging is the result of more singles and when those singles are stripped away, (essentially what ISO is) his actual power numbers show. Stewart did hit for a lot of power in the minors this year, .327 ISO, but at 23 his power does not seem to have translated into the majors yet. Over the next few years, I expect it to develop.

For now, Stewart appears to have figured out major league hitting. Even though his .467 BABIP jumps out at you, so does his 28 LD% . Perhaps a small regression is on the way, but Ian Stewart has the playing time, the skills, and Coors field as his home ball park going for him. If you have the roster spot to platoon him with another infielder, take note that he's hitting a whopping .529 against lefties and .250 against righties.

Continuing with my on-going saga about the Gio Gonzalez saga, Gio may get called up for tomorrow's start because Meyer, who was scheduled to make the start, had to throw 4 innings out of the bullpen last night. It is between Lenny DiNardo and Gio Gonzalez, I think you know who I am pulling for.

The Pirates: Screwed as an Organization

noreply@blogger.com (Chris Mulligan) — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 16:13:00 +0000

It's rare when I write an article on this site that goes beyond the realm of strictly fantasy baseball but I have no reservations about doing so when the urge strikes me. With my team firmly in control of the NL Central, I want to briefly direct my attention to a team that has not been a relevant baseball team in the Major Leagues since the early 90's. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the doormat of the NL Central/East for the last 15 years. They have also been in an endless cycle of "rebuilding" phases for those 15 years as well. Will the day ever come when we see an end to that vicious cycle?

There are so many things wrong with the Pirates as an organization that it's difficult to find one singular reason as to why they have suffered for so long other than lack of leadership. The owner of the Pirates, Bob Nutting, is not a baseball man. He's actually an educator who needs an education on how to run a baseball team. In the last four seasons under his ownership the club has finished no higher than fifth place in the standings. In all honesty, the man has no business owning a baseball team. If he was as intelligent as proclaimed, he would cut his loses and invest in something that he actually comprehends.

Of course Nutting does not deserve all of the blame. There have been a long line of incompetent GMs along the way as well. Neal Huntington is the current GM of the Pirates and is in his first year on the job. So far he has done nothing to win over his critics. He just traded Jason Bay and Xavier Nady and got "prospects" in return. Let's take a look at those "prospects". Andy LaRoche has not shown that he can be 1/10 of the player that his brother Adam is and that is really not saying much. He will never be even an average major leaguer. Craig Hansen is a 25 year old pitcher with a 5.57 ERA and 24 BB in 32 IP this season. Jeff Karstens could be a decent pitcher but he's already turning 26 years old this season and has yet to prove he can do anything at the Major League level. He traded two very good, young hitters for what are at the present time eight useless players. He didn't even get Andre Ethier from LA in the Bay deal. Great job Neal.

No there is no way to tell right now how good those eight young players will be but it looks as if they basically threw away Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, and Damaso Marte. I give it two years before Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit are wearing different uniforms. The Pirates have displayed a complete lack of effort in signing any of their young stars to long term deals. Even the Florida Marlins showed initiative in singing Hanley Ramirez long term. Their highest paid player is Jack Wilson at $6.6 mil and their only pitcher that will make over $1 mil this season is John Grabow.

I know that Pittsburgh is considered a "small market" team but I don't buy that crap. If the Marlins can get it done consistently with $20-30 mil payrolls then so can the Pirates. It comes down to a lack of leadership, bad scouting and development, inconceivable deals, and an overall losing mentality. Baseball is set up to where owners who want to win can and to where good baseball minds can produce winning franchises with the bare necessities. If the Pirates had an owner that wanted to win, they would win. If they had a good GM they would win. The rival Cubs buy good teams and develop their young players. The Marlins get players like Hanley Ramirez, Cameron Maybin, and Ricky Nolasco when they trade a star player and they get a Dan Uggla in the Rule Five draft. They sign guys like Jorge Cantu and they develop players like Josh Willingham, Jeremy Hermida, Mike Jacobs, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad. The Pirates do none of the above. They go after players like Adam LaRoche and trade for Andy LaRoche. This by a supposed "sabermetric" GM.

At the start of the season the Pirates had a very good batting order that included Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, Ryan Doumit, Adam LaRoche, and Freddy Sanchez. That is a good enough lineup to win with. Their starting rotation included Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Tom Gorzelanny, and Matt Morris. That is not good enough to win. If the Pirates would ever think about signing a star pitcher or two, they would be instant contenders in the NL Central.

People will argue that because nobody goes to Pirates games that no revenue is coming in. Therefore, they don't have the necessary funds to field a winning team. Bull crap. The revenue from advertising alone is enough to field a winning team. The fans have been given absolutely no reason to attend Pirates games for a long, long time. Give the people something to watch. Resign your young stars and build around them. Go after a big free agent. Sign at least one good pitcher. Matt Morris wasn't a exactly the right way to go. They have an awesome ballpark in a beautiful setting right on the river with the downtown in the backdrop and yet they still can't give the people something they can enjoy watching in that beautiful facility.

As one of baseball's oldest franchises, it's sad to see the state of affairs that has been the Pittsburgh Pirates' recent history. Pittsburgh is a great sports city. The people love their Steelers and their Penguins and both teams thrive in Pittsburgh. The people love their Pirates too and there is no reason why they should have to suffer with what has become a joke of a baseball franchise. There is no reason why a baseball team in Pittsburgh should endure 15 years of complete failure. It truly dumbfounds me. I can't help but feel the sadness that every Pirates fan must feel every year. There is still no end in sights. Until the team is controlled by someone who wants to win, the future remains bleak.

Saturday Link Dump

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 19:03:00 +0000

I know I've said I would stop the Saturday posts where I link to my MLB Front Office articles, but I've decided that I like them and will continue to do so. Lately I have been trying to include something else in the posts and I'll continue to do that in the form of a link dump. I will use these articles to link to any interesting fantasy baseball articles I've read over the past week and anything more on the light-hearted side that I would not include in a formal post.

Today's article at MLBFO focuses on H2H leagues and discusses how teams should handle things differently based on their position in the standings as we head into the final stretch of the regular season. (for H2H leagues remember) If your looking to make a push into the playoffs, consider my desperate/radical strategy.

If you have read any of my previous articles, like the one right below this one, you'll know I like to use what are considered "sabermetric statisitics". Well if you would like to read an article on why traditional stats just don't cut it sometimes, read this great piece by Sal Baxamusa, a Hardball Times contributer.

For all the pitchers out there, John Walsh, another Hardball Times guy, used PITCHf/x data to determine if pitchers throw inside change-ups and how successful they are if they dare do. Warning: you might like Ted Lilly a bit more after reading.

Note: I've been touting Gio Gonzalez as a prospect to add, I'm sorry if you did because it appears he will not get his chance in the majors this year. He can be our secret for 2009. David Price is another guy people are talking about, but he's only at Double-A so I'm skeptical about the Rays jumping him straight to the majors. Considering how thick in the race they are though, they might give him a shot, I don't know. Staying away from prospects might be the best idea.

Enjoy your Saturday.

Powerful Tendencies Building

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:36:00 +0000

Alex(is) Rios is one of the bigger fantasy disappointments this season. His average is not bad and he's getting plenty of steals, but something is just not right. Rios has only 8 Home Runs. He is on pace for a measly 12. PECOTA, in all of its PECOTA-ish glory, did not not see this coming. It predicted a season of 19 Home Runs. I would be fine with 19 home runs from Alex Rios, but with 12 I'm not. With only 12 Home Runs Rios leaves that desireable 5-tooled players club, filled with Grady Sizemore, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, and Ian Kinsler, and enters the Shane Victorino Club, not a horrible group to associate with, but not one that justifies a 5th round pick anymore. First, let see what has changed about Alex Rios this year from last year when he blasted 24 big ones.

	GB/FB	HR/FB
2007	.81	10%
2008	1.27	6.9%
July 08	.685	11.4%

This looks like a simple case of Prince Fielder's Disease. Rios is hitting more balls on the ground and the ones he is getting some air under are not going for Home Runs for as high a rate as they used to. The remedy, just hit more flyballs after going to the gym. In July it appears Rios might have done just that. He's hitting more flyballs overall (more line drives too) and more flyballs for Home Runs as well.

If Rios were to keep these peripherals and pace up, he would hit 9-10 Home Runs instead of the 4 mentioned earlier (12 minus 8). If Rios were to actually hit those 9-10 more Home Runs, (9-10 because the actual amount is 9.48) he would finish with a respectable 17-18 for the year. I could live with that, especially with the torrid steals pace Rios is on.

Rios has seemingly changed his plate approach in July, so consider Rios a small "buy low" guy. I would not target him so actively, but if the owner of Rios in your league is disgruntled by his lack of power, offer him something for Rios. You may not have to give up much in return for a guy I see having a solid second-half.

If your wondering how Prince Fielder is faring with his disease, the prognosis is not good. His GB/FB is way up in July to 1.57 and his HR/FB% is only up a little from his season's average. Anyone else see him slam his bat down after popping up a few days ago? Scary stuff.

Kinsler Can't Be Stopped...Right?

noreply@blogger.com (Chris Mulligan) — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 03:31:00 +0000

Ian Kinsler has been one of the most productive fantasy players so far in '08 and is starting to challenged Chase Utley and Brandon Phillips for the title of top 2B in fantasy baseball. He could go 0 for August and still end up having a career year. He production at the plate has captured the imagination of the whole fantasy baseball world. There is as big of a buzz about Kinsler as there is for just about anybody else. However, here is the question that must always be asked. "Is he for real?"

His numbers so far this season would suggest that, yes, he is for real. He ranks first among 2B in BA, fourth in HR, third in RBI, third in SB, first in OBP, and first in R by 18 over Dustin Pedroia. He is the only 2B to rank in the top five at his position in all of the five major fantasy categories (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB). Incredible numbers.

They are so incredible that they are abnormal. Take a look at his numbers historically. He's always shown good pop and the numbers will show that too. He hit 14 HR as a rookie in '06 and had 20 in a injury shortened season last year. In 2005, he hit 23 HR with 94 RBI with AAA Oklahoma. Some people may have actually expected more HR from him at this point in the season.

The one stat of Kinsler's that stands out to me as being abnormal is his BA. He has yet to complete a season over .300 in the majors and never accomplished that feat in AA or AAA. He came close with a .298 in '04 with AA Frisco. Suddenly in 2008 he is on his way to a MLB batting title. So how is he getting it done? First off, he makes contact. He has only struck out 58 times and his contact percentage is at 86.5%. He's also hitting more line drives. He has already hit 13 more LD than he did last season in 50 less AB giving him a LD% of 24% which is four percent better than in '06. His ground balls are also down from his career average. His GB% is down three points from last season at 31.7%.

Many experts were very high on Kinsler and would be happy to tell you that they saw this coming. I was skeptical of Kinsler coming into this season. The first thing that worried me were injuries in his first two Major League seasons. I kept having visions of Bobby Crosby and big red DL letters floating around my head when I thought about Kinsler. So I stayed away from him this year. People were drafting him in the fifth and sixth rounds and I thought they were nuts. It looks like I missed on this kid.

However, I don't think I totally missed. I still want to see another full season of healthy production from Kinsler before I draft him as a top tier 2B. I'm still not completely convinced of his HR and RBI production levels and I'm definitely not sold that he is a .330 hitter. Maybe I'm on the right track. He has been less than incredible since the All Star break as he is hitting .275 with 0 HR and only 4 RBI since the break.

The thing that has stood out the most to me about Ian Kinsler is the eerily similar battle stance and style he has to Nomar Garciaparra. The both have a considerably open stance with a deep crouch and a backward lean. Even his swing through the zone and his release look almost the same as Nomar's. Add to that the Kinsler wears the number 5 and the similarities are crazy. That's were the similarities between the two end for me. I just don't see Kinsler putting up the kind of numbers that Nomar did in his prime.

More Than A Spot Start

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 19:40:00 +0000

Yesterday in my MLBFO article, I suggested that Zach Miner be picked up for a spot-start against the White Sox for a cheap win, and he delivered nicely with 6 innings of 5 hit ball for only 2 earned runs. With the Tigers bashing Javier Vazquez (what's up with him?) for 6 runs in 7 innings, Miner received the "dubya". Yay, I was right again. Anyways, now that Miner has two solid starts under his belt for the Tigers, I think he has solidified his spot in the rotation and should prove to be a valuable fantasy commodity for the rest of the season. At 26 years old, his time in the minors is up and he's good enough to start so I don't see him returning to the bullpen, especially with Jeremy Bonderman out for the year. The funny thing about Miner, in Yahoo! leagues at least, is that he is not eligible as an SP yet. That means for his next few starts, you might have to bench a closer to put him in the RP spot when he starts. Just a minor nusiance that will go away in a couple of weeks. Jump ahead of the curve and pick him up now.

Gio Gonzalez is pitching his heart out right now in Triple-A. In his last 4 starts he's thrown 28.1 innings, given up 3 runs, and struck out 34. That's a .996 ERA! The A's rotation currently features 3 rookies, a pitcher with the 2nd best ERA in the majors, and the absolutely anemic Dallas Braden. I'm baffled why Gonzalez has not been called up to take Braden's spot in the rotation, knowing the A's it's probably a service time thing. Regardless, Gio seems primed for an August promotion and I expect him to produce fairly well. Even if his ERA and WHIP numbers are not exactly where you want them, he should still get you plently of K's.

In AL-only leagues these pitchers should be picked up immediately. In deep mixed leagues I would definitely add Miner and Gio too if you have an expendable roster spot. In shallow mixed leagues, I would keep an eye on both.

Last Time, I Swear

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 19:00:00 +0000

Seeing as there has not been a new article for you guys to read on here for a couple of days, I thought I'd give you guys some direction once again towards my MLB Font Office articles every Saturday. Click here for your reading pleasure.

In the article I discuss the process I go through when deciding which pitcher to add for a quick spot-start. There's a little more to it than you might think but don't worry, everything stays easy and simple.

If you would like something for your viewing pleasure, check out this series of funny videos made by Ron Stilanovich, a minor league player and now batting coach. Major league players are in each video as guest stars so click on the link to view the one with Carlos Zambrano, with Matt Kemp, with Andre Ethier, with Brad Hawpe, and one on scrappiness. They are hysterical. Enjoy.

Hit or Miss

noreply@blogger.com (Chris Mulligan) — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 04:18:00 +0000

One of the things that irritates fantasy owners the most is inconsistency. Zack Greinke has been the model of inconsistency this season. He has baffled us all season long and has had owners second guessing on starting him every week. It seems like you either get a gem from him or he gets rocked. What can we get from Zack Greinke in the second half? Can he gain some consistency?

One thing that has been consistent all season from Greinke is the strikeouts. He has struck out 113 in 133 innings so far. He's struck out eight or more hitters in a game six times this season. He also has only 41 BB in those 133 IP so he's been getting the ball over the plate. That hasn't necessarily been a favorable accomplishment in recent weeks as he's given up 47 hits in 33 IP in his last six games.

Another thing that has been consistent with Greinke is that his monthly ERA has gone up every month this year. He was lights out in April when he had a 1.25 ERA in six starts that month. His ERA for May was 4.38. In June he had an ERA of 5.25 and in his July ERA as of today is 5.63. This is certainly not a good trend. His ERA is now up over 4.00 for the first time this season.

One thing we have learned about Greinke is don't start him against the White Sox. He has faced the Sox more than any other team in his career with 16 starts against them. His career ERA against them is 5.10 and in two starts at U.S. Cellular this season Greinke has given up 15 ER in 9 IP.

So when do you start him? You start him when the Royals are in Kansas City. Greinke has a 2.39 ERA at home this season compared to a 4.85 road ERA. The bad thing about that is Greinke has only pitched at home 7 times this season compared to 13 road starts. Also 13 of the 18 HR given up by Greinke have come on the road. I think we may have found a solution. Although Greinke has been generally terrible as of late he has still pitched well at home giving up only 4 R in 13 IP in his last two home starts while striking out 18.

The time to sell high on Zack Greinke has probably came and went although you may be able to still get decent value for him. I think it's going to be a bumpy second half for him. He's still learning how to pitch and how to pitch with confidence. His GB/FB rate has been pretty good which tells me he's getting burned on mistake pitches. I think he sometimes gets into a mode where he wants to strike everyone out.

His next start looks to be on 7/28 at Oakland against Dallas Braden. It's a road game but Greinke has good career numbers against the A's. He has a 2.89 ERA in 8 games against them. I'm going to go with his history against Oakland in this one and give him the start against the A's but continue to bench him on the road until he proves he can pitch away from home

Quick Closer Update

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 05:08:00 +0000

Nationals closer Jon Rauch was traded to the D'Backs today. I do not expect Rauch to close over Lyon in Arizona, but the trade does leave Washington with two potential closer candidates moving forward; they are Luis Ayala and Joel Hanrahan.

Hanrahan is less-experienced, but has been pitching well with a 3.94 ERA and 3.60 FIP. Ayala is the experienced veteran and has had some great seasons for the Nationals in the past, but so far this year has an ERA of 5.32. His FIP of 4.38 suggests his ERA should not be quite as high as it is, but still Hanrahan has clearly been the better pitcher this year. So far some sources have speculated that Hanrahan will become the closer and others have said the vet Ayala is the guy. Let's take a look at their gm/LI numbers to see who manager Manny Acta has trusted more so far this year. (If you don't know what gm/LI is, read this piece written by yours truly over at MLB Front Office)

gm/LI - Player
1.52 - Ayala
1.00 - Hanrahan

Based on their gm/LI numbers, Ayala is clear candidate to become closer. However since the Nationals are out of contention, their intentions might not be for this year. Since Hanrahan was drafted by the Nationals in 2002, they might want to groom him as their next closer and what better way then to give him some closing experience in meaningless games. That might be the case, it might not. Because of the gm/LI numbers are so lopsided in Ayala's favor, it would not surprise me if he becomes closer.

My suggestion is to pick up Ayala as the Nationals closer, but watch every Nationals game closer over the next few days and be ready to drop Ayala in favor of Hanrahan the second anything changes. People with Blackberries have such an advantage.

UPDATE: It seems as if Hanrahan, not Ayala, will the Nationals closer. So Hanrahan is the guy to add if he has not been already in your league.

If Chicks Dig the Long Ball. . .

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:27:00 +0000

than these two mashers should be getting plenty. Their names are Dan Uggla and Adam Dunn and they are not afraid to swing for the fences. They have 24 and 28 home runs respectively, both on pace for a career high in that department, however Uggla is batting a respectable (especially for him) .275 Avg while Dunn is ruining team batting averages with his .234 mark. Dunn has never been known to hit for average but after hitting .264 last year, I thought perhaps he had turned a corner, we'll look more into that later.

Despite Uggla hitting right-handed, he loves to face right-handers, hitting 22 of his 24 home runs off them. Dunn, a lefty, more conventionally also likes to face right-handers, hitting 24 of hit 28 dingers off of them. Both players have hit so terrible off left-handed pitchers that I would consider benching them when they face a good lefty pitcher. That's easier said than done for Uggla since I doubt many teams have two quality second basemen. If you're in a head-to-head league and its Sat/Sun and you are in a really close Avg race and Dunn or Uggla or any player with a similar split is facing the handedness he is weak against, consider benching them and leaving that spot open, especially if you have a safe lead in the other hitting stats. Something to think about.

Because Dunn's average dropped all the way to .225, his manager Dusty Baker had to reassure everybody that he would still start because he "gets on base a lot". Okay, well I guess that's a good reason to start somebody. I've never heard of a guy "OPS"ing over .900 who got benched, but hey, MLB managers are very traditional so batting average actually means something to them.

2008	Avg	Ba/Bip	LD%	xBa/Bip	xAVG
A Dunn	.234	.247	19.3%	.313	.297

Working our way left to right, I am going to walk you through this table. Dunn's current batting average is .234 and his current Ba/Bip is .247. That's easy enough, if you don't know what Ba/Bip is, click the link. Next, Dunn's line drive percentage (LD%) is 19.3. LD% is a good indicator of Ba/Bip because line drives falls for hits 71% of the time. If you take LD% as a decimal (more the decimal two places to the left), so in Dunn's case 19.3% becomes .193, and then add .120, you get his xBa/Bip of .313. Just to compress the formula, .LD + .120 = xBa/Bip. Okay so now instead of 24.7% of Dunn's balls in play falling for hits, we should expect 31.3% based on his above average LD%. After some not to intense calculations I was able to find out that Dunn's average should be .297, and that's the number I fully expect him to hit for the rest of the season.

Dan Uggla is quite another story. Along with his massive power numbers, for a 2nd-baseman anyway, he brings the batting average component. Although as we saw with Adam Dunn, batting averages can be deceiving. Onto the table!

2008	Avg	Ba/Bip	LD%	xBa/Bip	xAVG
D Uggla	.275	.330	13.8%	.258	.215

Wow. If you follow this table the same way we did with Dunn, you'll find out that Uggla should be batting .215. Now, do I really think Uggla will hit .215 the rest of the way? The answer is actually yes. It would not come as a great surprise to me if he did. Small changes in Ba/Bip are cause for significant change in batting average and so large changes in Ba/Bip do wondrous changes. Uggla's all-home run approach at the plate shouldn't net him a high average, he's just been lucky so far this year that it has.

Speaking of home runs, let's take a closer look into how these guys have been getting the ball over the wall. Dunn is seventeenth in the major leagues in FB% and second in HR/FB% at 29.2%. So he puts the ball up in the air a good amount, but when he does get it up, it's out 30% of time. Only Ryan Howard does that better. Also, when Dunn hits them over the wall, they don't just sneak over, he crushes them. 15 of his 27 home runs are classified as "No Doubt" home runs by HitTracker and the average true distance of his home runs is well above league-average at 409 feet. Uggla puts the ball in the air (FB%) second most in the majors (behind Joe Crede of all people) and 20.9% percent of his flyballs go for home runs (HR/FB%). Uggla has no "No Doubt" homers but no lucky ones either. The average true distance of his home runs is just-below league average at 390 feet. Both players currently have HR/FB%s that are inflated above their career averages, but it possible that at 29 and 28 years old they have hit their peak power years. Still, I do expect slight regression in their HR/FB% in the second half, but not all the way back to their career averages.

My advice to you if you own Uggla is to trade him. I do not think he will keep up this home run pace and I've clearly stated I think his batting average will decline sharply in the second half. Be happy with the great production you got from him for the first half, get something good in return for him, and laugh at the new owner of Uggla for the rest of the second half. For Dunn owners, hang onto him. He has been a great asset, especially of late with his 6 homers in 10 games, and his batting average should not be an issue this point forward. If you do not own Dunn, see if the person in your league who does own him is willing to trade him because of his low average.

Last, my Audacious Outlooks on Dan & Dunn for the rest of the year:

Adam Dunn: 40 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 2 SB, .295 Avg (.262 year-end Avg)
Dan Uggla: 35 R, 15 HR, 32 RBI, 3 SB, .220 Avg (.252 year-end Avg)

Fanfare Not Needed

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:39:00 +0000

Nineteen games ago the Rangers called up arguably their best prospect and nobody really cared or noticed. Now through nineteen games that prospect has hit 7 home runs and some people are actually beginning to notice. Through his first nineteen games, just for comparison's sake, Jay Bruce hit only 4. Okay, okay home runs are not the only barometer of performance, through his first nineteen games the Rangers prospect has a .971 OPS and Bruce had a 1.050 OPS at the same point. Still with numbers like those, somebody ought to give Chris Davis some love and also a little fanfare.

A fifth round draft pick of the Texas Rangers in just 2006, Davis has never struggled in the minor leagues. In fact, as he was promoted up the rungs of the minors, he would hit better and better forcing another promotion. Finally, after putting up the second highest wOBA in the Pacific Coast League in 2008, he was promoted to the Rangers and since then has proven the majors is where he belongs. The Rangers appear to agree as they have made Davis their starting first basemen, a role that was threatened when Blalock came off the DL.

Looking at what Davis has done so far this season, his line stands at .250 Avg, 14 R, 7 Hr, 15 RBI, and 0 SB. From that line one would conclude that Davis is a low average-high power guy, but that may not be the case. Davis' Ba/Bip currently stands at .209 so when that normalizes to around .300, Davis' Avg should rocket up to around the .270-.280 range. Now regarding those home runs, Davis is definitely a power hitter, his ISO in Triple-A this year was a ridiculous .352, so even though his current home runs pace is unsustainable - I do not need some statistic to tell me that - consider home runs his specialty. He is a first baseman after all.

If you are weak at the 1st base position, your Utility spot, or just looking to add a possibly dangerous bat to your bench, Chris Davis is someone to keep an eye on. I will warn you there is a decent chance Davis is just flat-out is not ready to make the jump to the major leagues, but with the ceiling as high as it is and playing time not an issue I say why not give this youngster a chance. It won't cost you anything more than a roster spot.

Contact, In and Out

noreply@blogger.com (Paul Singman) — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 03:27:00 +0000

Today is Saturday so I do have a new MLB Front Office article up. The article focuses on the impact of making contact out of the strike zone, and also examines if Vlad really is the champ at it.

All of the regular readers here probably are thinking two things right now. First, you know I write these articles every Saturday and you don't need reminders anymore, so this will be the last "advertisement" I make of the MLB Front Office articles. And Second, you should have (hopefully) realized that I have not posted in the last few weeks. No, I did not get tired of writing about fantasy baseball, I was simply away and now that I am back home I will begin writing regularly again.

Tomorrow I am going to the Yankees, A's game. Shoot me an e-mail (before 11:00) tomorrow if you are going too and want to meet up and get some free personal advice. (not that you can't by e-mailing me either ;)

Go A's!!!!!!!

The Deadline Approaches

noreply@blogger.com (Chris Mulligan) — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 22:05:00 +0000

The MLB trade deadline is creeping up fast and there are a lot of juicy rumors with big names being mentioned. An MLB trade can really impact your team in both positive and negative ways. I have here some of the rumors that have been circulating and some players that haven't necessarily been rumored to be on the block but I think have a chance of being dealt.

Let's start in Seattle where the Mariners have a roster full of potential trade bait. The Mariners have been miserable and there has been all kinds of turmoil associated with the team. Ichiro Suzuki has made it known that he is not happy with management and it seems management is not too happy with him either. There would be at least a hand full of teams interested in Ichiro's services but he doesn't come cheap. He's getting up there in age and his production has dropped off this season. However, it would be interesting to see Ichiro on a contender. If Ichiro ended up on a good offensive team it would really up his fantasy value. I think the White Sox would benefit from having Ichiro the most by getting a great pace setter and adding some speed to that lineup full of thumpers. I don't think the White Sox are big buyers at all and if they make a move it will be to add depth to the bench. My guess is Ichiro stays in Seattle and gets dealt in the off-season.

Eric Bedard has been talked about in trades but I don't think that's going to happen either. He's been a huge bust an he's another disgruntled employee but I think he'll stay in Seattle for the remainder of the season. I think he gets dealt in the off-season as well. Raul Ibanez seems like the most likely candidate to be traded. He's 36 years old now and there is no reason for the Mariners to hold on to him. There would be a lot of teams interested in him though. I think the Mets would be very interested having lost Moises Alou for the season and the unknown status of Ryan Church. Ibanez would be a great fit in that lineup. I would have to think that the Angels would have some interest as well.

San Diego has some players that could be traded but the one who I think is the most likely to be traded is Greg Maddux. He has had a pretty good season thus far and would be much more valuable in the fantasy world is he could get some run support. I think the Cardinals and the Brewers would be interested and perhaps even the Phillies. They need as much pitching as they can get their hands on. I think Brian Giles stays in Sand Diego. He's making $9.6 mil this season and I doubt many teams are going to want to pay that for a light hitting outfielder.

Giants' hitters Randy Winn, Rich Aurelia, and Ray Durham could all be dealt. They are players that could add some depth to a few teams but Randy Winn would be the only player having a decent impact on fantasy teams.

The Rockies have a few players that may be on the way out come the deadline. Everyone is talking about Matt Holliday possibly being traded. I just don't see it happening. They would have to be retards to trade him now. They've got him for one more year so they at least want him to put butts in the seats until the trade deadline of '09. Brian Fuentes is a hot commodity. Just about every team in contention could use a lefty reliever. The Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Brewers, and Rays would be interested in acquiring Fuentes so it's tough to say where he'll land. Just about any trade drops his fantasy value to next to nothing for the rest of the year. The only scenario where I could see him closing games would be in Tampa with Troy Percival's issues. It's probably a smart move to pick up Manny Corpas as it looks as if he'll slide right back into the closer's role once Fuentes is dealt.

The Reds could be sellers and the names that come up the most are Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. If either of these two players are dealt their value would take a slight hit for the fact that they would be leaving possibly the most hitter friendly park in the league. There would be only a certain few teams that would be able to afford either Dunn or Griffey. I have a feeling that the Rays may try to go after Dunn.

The rumor around Pittsburgh is that Jason Bay and Xavier Nady could both be on the block. I think the Cardinals could end up going after Bay which I believe would increase Bay's value tremendously. He's had a great season so far and if you put him on a winning team there is no telling how good he could be. Nady is a very streaky hitter. I think his value remains right around where it's at now if he is to be dealt. The Mets and the Twins could be use a guy like Xavier Nady. If one of these players is dealt it would signal the call that I've been waiting for and that is calling up Andrew McCutcheon to the big leagues. I love what I see in this kid and I think he will make an impact this season. If both get dealt we could see Steve Pearce get a call up too.

Now there is a big rumor going around that Mark Teixeira could be traded by Atlanta. It's hard to see a team that would want to take on another $16 mil in salary for a rent-a-player. If he goes to a team it could be to one who is on the fringe of contention and is desperate. I think it would take too much to get Teixeira and that along with his salary is why he will stay put in Atlanta.