NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center….announced that projected climate conditions point to a below-normal hurricane season in the Central Pacific Basin this year. The seasonal hurricane outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.

The 2012 outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 20 percent chance of an above-normal season. Forecasters expect 2-4 tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific this season. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

…BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST…EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.5N 78.8W
ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES…
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER
LANDFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN TURN NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA…GEORGIA…AND NORTH FLORIDA…
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR and HWAIDA SAAD