Great NASCAR race action caught at the final Camping World Truck Series event, the Ford 200, Friday night at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Photo credit: Kevin Cable for OnPitRow.com

We have a two-way battle for the championship between Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart, and if either of them win the race, they win the title. It’s as simple as that. Both drivers are on top of their game, unlike last year, when Jimmie Johnson was able to psyche out Denny Hamlin relatively easily. Stewart’s been engaging Edwards pretty heavily in the media, but Edwards doesn’t seem too worried about it.

Perhaps it’s because neither of Stewart’s two Homestead wins came on this track layout. While Smoke dominated the early years of its Cup history, winning the inaugural race in 1999 and again in 2000, track ownership altered its shape and banking in 2003. Since then, Roush Fenway Racing has basically owned the track, winning six of the last seven races there. The last two of those wins, in 2008 and 2010, went to Edwards.

Or perhaps it’s because Edwards is just better at Homestead. Stewart’s got a good track record, with two wins and six top-10s in 12 starts and an average finish of 12.4. But Edwards has two wins and six top-10s of his own in only seven races run. His average finish is 5.7. That’s off the wall. That’s the kind of average finish that will give you 1:2 odds in Vegas.

And yet, Stewart’s won a title under the Chase format before. Edwards hasn’t. Stewart has the advantage of having been in Edwards’ position in 2005 and knowing what throws a leader’s mindset off. He’s got all the confidence in the world - he just needs to execute.

Ignore the change in points formatting before this season. This championship could, theoretically, end in a tie (which would go to Stewart on the strength of more wins). It could be separated by only one or two points, which, under the old system, would still be a narrower margin of victory than Kurt Busch’s eight point win in 2004. Either way, it’s a very slim chance that Sunday becomes a gimme for either driver.

So get your popcorn ready, folks. We’re about to witness history.

Well, this it it.

During The Last Race At Homestead…Carl Edwards started from the outside pole and pretty much dominated the entire race, leading 190 of the 267 laps en route to his second victory of the 2010 season. He had a perfect driver rating of 150.0. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson wrapped up his fifth-straight championship by finishing 2nd, and Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, and A.J. Allmendinger followed him to the line to round out the top 5. Yes, I said Aric Almirola. Pole-sitter Kasey Kahne, who was driving Brian Vickers‘ the Red Bull Toyota, finished 6th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Ford 400:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl was my pick to win the championship before the season started, and I’m not going to change my mind now. In fact, I think he has a great chance to cap off his first championship season with his third career win at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In seven career starts at this track, Carl has just one finish outside of the top 8 (a 14th in his first race here) and an average finish of 5.7. As I said before, Edwards dominated the race here last season, and also pretty much dominated the race here in 2008 when he led 157 laps before taking the checkered flag. And–I’m mentioning this for the final time this season–Carl hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since August.

2. Tony Stewart - Close but no cigar, Smoke. Stewart has put up a great run, but I just don’t see him taking the championship away from Edwards unless the #99 Ford has some mechanical issues or something. Tony’s record at Homestead isn’t stellar (12.4 average finish in twelve starts), but he won here in 1999 and 2000 and has two top 10s in the last three races here. As fast as the #14 Chevrolet has been lately, don’t be surprised if he’s top 5 all day on Sunday.

3. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” has never visited victory lane at Homestead, but I’m sure he will soon. In the last five races here, Harvick has ended up in the top 5 in four of them and his average finish of 7.9 is second-best in the series. In his ten career starts here, Kevin’s worst finish has been 20th and only two of those races ended without Harvick in the top 10.

4. Kasey Kahne - I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see Kasey Kahne up there fighting for his second straight win at the end of the Ford 400 on Sunday. He hasn’t been great at Homestead (four finishes outside of the top 15 in seven races) but it’s hard to go against a driver and team that’s this hot. Kahne won the pole in this race last season and went on to finish 6th. He also has the best average start at Homestead (7.9) of anyone in the series.

5. Matt Kenseth - It’s a pretty risky pick right now, but as long as Brian Vickers doesn’t wreck him, I’m expecting a solid top 5 out of Matt Kenseth this Sunday. This is nowhere near his best track (average finish of 18.8 in eleven starts) but Homestead is an intermediate track and he does drive for Jack Roush. Kenseth dominated the race here in 2007 en route to his second victory of that season, and in the last six races here he has finished 13th or better five times. If you put Matt on your roster this weekend, though, you better hope he doesn’t try to pay back Vickers, considering his championship hopes are gone.

6. A.J. Allmendinger - Five: that’s the number of top 11s The Dinger has in the last seven Sprint Cup races. So, momentum? Check. Coming into his best track (statistically)? Check. A.J. has made three starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. Last season, he started 5th and finished 5th in this race. Allmendinger is becoming a consistent driver in NASCAR’s top series, and I’m sure he’s one of the drivers that are extremely excited for the 2012 season to start. Sleeper for the Chase next year? I guess we’ll find out.

7. Jimmie Johnson - I’m sure he hasn’t been running at 100% in the last few races here, but his finishes sure don’t show that. Johnson has two straight top 5 finishes here and has led at least one lap in each of the last five races here. What concerns me, though, is how uncharacteristically awful this team has been in the Chase, and that’s the main reason I have Jimmie ranked in 7th. If he looks off in practice, I’ll probably have “Five Time” on my avoid list this weekend. His average finish in ten starts at Homestead is 11.6, which is fifth-best in the series.

8. Kyle Busch - I don’t think there will be any other driver more determined to have a good run in Homestead this weekend than “Rowdy” Busch. His finishes have been nowhere near great at this track–with just one top 10 in six career starts–but Kyle hasn’t ran that bad at all, having a driver rating of at least 85.0 in four of the last five races. I can see why people will avoid Busch this weekend, but if you’re willing to take a risk, I think “Rowdy” will be your best bet on Sunday.

9. Martin Truex, Jr. - Yep, Truex ruined many rosters of mine in Phoenix, too, but it’s good to have a short memory in fantasy racing. Homestead is the best track on the circuit for Martin and he’s been a pretty sure pick here for the last five years. In those five races, Truex has led a total of 92 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. He has also completed every single lap ran during that span and has an average driver rating of 107.4 over those five races. Coming into the season I thought Truex might be able to grab a victory in this race, but now I think just a solid top 10 is what he will be able to end the 2011 season with.

10. Greg Biffle - The good news? The Biff has nine top 15 finishes in the last eleven Sprint Cup races, and this team showed that they could finally put a full race together in Texas, where Biffle finished 5th. Even better news? Greg won three straight races here from 2004 to 2006. You’re probably thinking that there has to be some bad news, too. Kind of. Since those wins, Biffle’s best finish has been 10th, but that came last year. Also, his average finish of 13.1 here makes Homestead his fifth-best track on the circuit. It’s an intermediate course so I don’t see any reason as to why the Roushkateers won’t all have solid races.

11. Jeff Burton - All of this talk about the Edwards/Stewart battle and Kasey Kahne’s hot streak have really overshadowed Jeff Burton’s recent success. In the last four Sprint Cup races, Burton has three finishes of 6th or better, and those account for all but one of his four top 10s for this entire season. He finished 2nd here in 2009 and 8th in 2007, but his other two races here (in 2008 and last season, 2010) ended with 40th and 31st-place finishes. I think Burton will challenge for another top 10 this week, though, and end this disastrous season on a high note.

12. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin finished 33rd in his first ever start at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but in the five races since, he hasn’t finished worse than 14th and has amassed three top 5s, including his victory here in 2009. Denny hasn’t been great on the intermediates this year–especially recently–so I like him for a solid teens finish instead of a potential top 5. If he impresses me in practice, though, I may bump Hamlin up in my final rankings of the weekend.

13. Kurt Busch - If you’re someone who notices patterns and makes fantasy decisions based on them, then Kurt Busch would be a perfect pick for you this weekend. Since 2001, the elder Busch brother has posted a top 5 finish in every other race at Homestead. For example, he finished 4th in 2009, 2nd in 2007, 5th in 2004 (he didn’t race in 2005), and won the race in 2002. Last season, Kurt ended up 18th, and finished 43rd in 2008 as well as 2006. In 2003, he ended up 36th.

14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has made five career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway but he has been pretty consistent in all of them. He finished 39th here in 2007, but in the other four races Bowyer has ended up 10th, 5th, 11th, and 12th. Obviously, I think he’ll be a solid pick for a top 15, but I just don’t see much more than that for Clint this weekend. I hope he enjoys his final race with RCR, though, because I don’t see him competing much next year at MWR.

15. Trevor Bayne - Heck, why not? Bayne stays out of trouble on the intermediate tracks and usually ends up with a mid-teens finish. In the #21 Ford last season for this race was Bill Elliott, and he qualified 4th and finished 15th. I see no reason why Trevor can’t replicate that, or maybe even finish a little bit higher. He’s on the preliminary entry list for the Ford 400 so I’m assuming he’s going to race.

Those To Avoid Entering The Ford 400:

Brian Vickers - I don’t even see how this guy is racing this week to be honest with you. The only thing you can probably count on this weekend is that Brian Vickers may mess up many fantasy rosters. He has made seven career starts at Homestead, but Brian’s average finish is 30th and he’s only completed 81.4% of the laps ran. Have fun in the Nationwide series next year, “Sheriff.”

David Reutimann - What’s he got to race for, really? Chances are Reutimann won’t be racing next season (in the Sprint Cup series at least), and despite finishing 7th last week in Phoenix, I’m not convinced that this team has anything left in the tank for the season finale. David won the pole here in 2008 but his best finish in four career starts has been 15th.

Marcos Ambrose - I have Ambrose on the avoid list simply because he is so bad here (average finish of 34.3 in three career starts), but I’m going to make a case as to how he may be a deep–make that very deep–sleeper on Sunday. First, Marcos has had some strong runs on the intermediates this season (most recently at Texas where he ran top 5 for most of the race). Second, he has some momentum, with five finishes of 11th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races after he brought the #9 home in 8th last week in Phoenix. Finally, Aric Almirola posted a 4th-place finish in this race last season in the same car, as he was subbing for Kasey Kahne. I’ll personally be keeping an eye on Ambrose in practice, and if he looks good I may just take a chance.

How to make an informed fantasy pick for the Ford 400:

1) Pick the best intermediate track drivers of the year. You’ll never have better information then you will this week. You’ve just watched 10 months of racing.

2) Practice makes perfect. As is the case with every intermediate track practice (Happy Hour on Friday this week) is what separates the contenders from the pretenders.

3) Pick drivers with momentum. At the end of the season some teams step up their game and others are getting out the golf clubs. Pick the drivers who have looked good in recent weeks.

4) Because of the progressive banking and the ability for passing qualifying is an overrated variable this week

Drivers to watch this week:

Tony Stewart – Now’s not the time to bet against Stewart. He’s a man on a mission and won the last time the series visited an intermediate track. He has won at Homestead before but that win doesn’t hold any relevancy because the track was under a different configuration at the time. His recent history is nothing to brag about but he did finish 8th last year (17th place average running position).

Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion of the Ford 400 and he has six consecutive top seven finishes in NASCAR’s season finale. Last year Edwards recorded a perfect 150 driver rating and led 190 laps. Edwards also might provide vital qualifying points this week. Last year he started second and in 2008 he started fourth. Since 2005 Edwards has a 4.3 average finish (best in series) and a 7.5 average running position (best in series).

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has never won at Homestead but his 3rd (2008), 2nd (2009) and 3rd (2010) in the last three races is pretty impressive. His 2.6 average finish in this stretch is even better than Carl Edwards (3.0). If I were to pick Harvick at any intermediate track on the schedule this is the race I would pick him. In the last three races his average running position (6.3) is tied for the best in the series and no driver has ran more laps in the top fifteen then him (94.8% of laps).

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth won this race in 2007 and more importantly he’s in a Ford. Beyond the Blue Oval brigade theirs only a handful of drivers who will be in the mix for the win at Homestead-Miami. Last season Kenseth finished 9th and had a 7th place average running position. His 107.7 driver rating ranked as the 5th best.

Kasey Kahne – Kahne has been a top tier intermediate track driver throughout the Chase. I don’t expect the Ford 400 to be any different. Last year in his Red Bull Toyota he started on the pole and finished 6th. In the last three intermediate track races he’s finished 3rd (Texas), 4th (Charlotte) and 2nd (Kansas).

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Pre Race Loop Data Book
• Loop Data From Last Years Race
• Chase Statistics
• Past Race Winners / Past Pole Winners
• Entry List
• Schedule of Events

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum Over The Last 5 Races:

1. Tony Stewart
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Jeff Burton
6. Greg Biffle
7. Clint Bowyer
8. AJ Allmendinger
9. Martin Treux Jr.
10. Marcos Ambrose

VegasInsider.com Odds To Win:

• Carl Edwards 5/2
• Tony Stewart 7/2
• Matt Kenseth 7/1
• Jimmie Johnson 8/1
• Kyle Busch 9/1
• Kevin Harvick 10/1
• Jeff Gordon
• Kasey Kahne 18/1
• Greg Biffle 18/1
• Denny Hamlin 18/1

Sam Hornish Jr won the 2011 WypAll 200 NASCAR Nationwide Series race Saturday at Phoenix International Raceway.

One win in almost six seasons of NASCAR.

But Hornish won 19 races in eight seasons of IndyCar (CART and IRL) including three championships. He won the 2006 Indianapolis 500. He’s a helluva good driver.

Watching Hornish hold off his teammate Brad Keselowski over the last 25 laps, I was on the edge of my seat. I can’t remember wanting a driver to hold on more than I did Saturday. It wasn’t a big race in relative terms and the result had little to do with history making. It didn’t save a career, or validate anything. But it felt good to me.

Congratulations Sam Hornish Jr and Penske Racing. Now go get some more.

Photo credit:  Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images for NASCAR

During The Last Race At Phoenix…It was a wreck-fest early and many good cars were caught up in it, including pole sitter Carl Edwards, who was most people’s favorite to win the race all weekend. He ended up finishing 28th. As for the front runners, Jeff Gordon led 138 of the 312 laps and out-drove Kyle Busch to win the second race of this 2011 season. Jimmie Johnson ended up 3rd while Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman followed him to the line to round out the top 5.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Tony Stewart - Not much explanation needed here. “Smoke” is, quite simply, on fire, and doesn’t look like he’s going to cool off any time soon. He’s the best driver in the series at Indy (8.1 career average finish in thirteen starts) and Stewart is always a threat on the flat tracks. Remember, he won at New Hampshire in September and Tony has led at least one lap in all but one of the flat track races this season. “Smoke” won in his first career start at “old” Phoenix, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him win in his first career start at “new” Phoenix.

2. Jeff Gordon - The most recent race winner at this track should be expected to be up front on Sunday as well. In the last two weeks, with top 10 finises at both Martinsville and Texas, Gordon has broken out of the slump he was in during October, and you should know by now that he is a great flat track racer. In the six events this season, Gordon’s worst finish has been 11th, and he has collected two wins. At Indianapolis, Jeff has collected four wins in his career.

3. Kyle Busch - No, he’s not going to get parked for the rest of the season, and Joe Gibbs is definitely not going to fire him. You think Kyle is ready to get back behind the wheel this weekend? Nothing would relieve Rowdy’s mind of last week’s debacle faster than a visit to victory lane in the desert on Sunday. Busch has been great on the flat tracks in 2011, collecting top 5s in half of the races and only one finish worse than 11th. As you probably remember, Kyle also won at Phoenix in February, although that 2nd-place finish has been one of only two top 5s at this track in thirteen career starts for NASCAR’s most hated driver. The other one? A victory in 2005 while driving for Hendrick.

4. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has two-straight poles at Phoenix and had the best cars in those races, in my opinion, as well. He won the first one (which was at the end of last season), and we all know what happened here in February to the #99. His history at flat tracks isn’t great, but you’d be really foolish to go against Edwards right now. At Indianapolis, he has an average finish of 11th, and at Phoenix, Carl has an average finish of 13th. Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 11th since August at Michigan. That won’t change this weekend.

5. Jimmie Johnson - I didn’t want to rank “Five Time” this high, but his history here is borderline ridiculous and this team has a knack for adapting to a new track faster than the competition. In sixteen career starts at the ‘old’ Phoenix track, Johnson has an average finish of 4.8 (seriously), and with his 3rd-place run here in February, he extended his streak of top 5s to ten straight. Since February 2009, there have been twenty races on flat tracks, and Johnson’s average finish of 8.2 is best in the series. I don’t like his momentum, but it is Jimmie Johnson…

6. Kevin Harvick - If you’re following Ryan’s thinking on Richmond and Phoenix, then Kevin Harvick is going to be a great pick this weekend because he pretty much dominated there in September. At the ‘old’ Phoenix, Kevin was up and down, but lately it’s been more up. As I said before, he finished 4th here in February and in this race last season, Harvick brought the #29 Chevrolet home in 6th. At Indianapolis, Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races and a career average finish of 10th.

7. Ryan Newman - It’s a flat track so you have to keep “The Rocketman” in your mind! In the six races this season, Newman has recorded four top 10s, a 12th, and, most recently, a 25th-place finish at New Hampshire, despite leading 62 laps and starting on the pole. At Indy, Flyin’ Ryan has been a teens driver for the last four years, and while, at Phoenix, he owns a career average finish of 19.3, Newman has three straight top 5s here. If he had a little more momentum I’d say Newman would be a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, but if he seems uncomfortable in practice, don’t be afraid to pass on him this weekend.

8. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother won at this track back in 2005 and has recorded five top 10 finishes in the last six races here. On the flat tracks this season, Kurt has been pretty good, ending up in the top 10 in 66% of them. Busch has had a few bad runs at Indianapolis, but does own six finishes of 12th or better in eleven career starts. His average driver rating of 99.8 over the last twenty flat track races is good enough for fourth-best in the series. I’m expecting a solid showing out of Busch and the Double Deuce on Sunday.

9. Greg Biffle - What did we witness last weekend? Is it a sign of things to come? In case you don’t remember, The Biff was junk for most of the race in Texas, but this team worked on the car the whole afternoon and put a full race together, with Biffle ending up with a solid top 5 finish. There’s hope, Biffle fans. Greg started and finished 4th in this race last season, and in the last three flat track races (New Hampshire, Pocono, Indianapolis), he has ended up in the top 10 in each. At Indianapolis, Biffle is a riding a streak of four-straight top 10s. All signs point to a solid, top 10 day for the #16 Ford on Sunday.

10. Brad Keselowski - The last two weekend’s might have scared off most fantasy owners from Brad Keselowski, but I still have faith in the Double Deuce. This team’s ability to work on the car during the race is absolutely amazing, and I know it’s a little early, but I’m excited to see what this team can do next season. As far as this week goes, Brad’s record at Phoenix in the fall is terrible (37th in 2009, 42nd in 2010) but he started 9th and finished 15th here in February, and that was before this team was worth taking a shot with in fantasy. In the last three flat track races, Keselowski has a 9th (at Indianapolis), a win (at Pocono), and a 2nd-place finish (at New Hampshire).

11. Matt Kenseth - He’s not the first driver you think of when the series stops at a flat track, but Matt Kenseth hasn’t been too bad on them this season. In the six flat track races in 2011, Matt has recorded three top 10s and has a worst finish of just 20th. At Indianapolis, Kenseth has recorded six top 12s in the last seven races, and he actually has a win at Phoenix (back in 2002). There’s better picks going into this weekend, but if you want to switch things up and hope you catch some luck, Matt Kenseth wouldn’t be a bad pick on Sunday.

12. Denny Hamlin - Their momentum was shot in Texas last weekend, but to be fair, it was quite simply an off weekend for Joe Gibbs Racing in the lone star state. I do think Hamlin could challenge for a top 10 on Sunday, though, even though his history at Indianapolis (18.5 average finish in six career starts) isn’t stellar. Denny has finished 12th or better in five of the last six Phoenix races, but something has been off with this team on the flat tracks as a whole this season. If he’s not fast in practice, don’t think twice about passing on Hamlin.

13. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made twenty-nine career starts at Phoenix and has recorded twenty-eight top 20s. Quite impressive. He has also collected nineteen top 10s, twelve top 5s, and visited victory lane twice. I don’t think he’ll have a shot at the win on Sunday, but a solid top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this old timer. He has seven straight finishes of 11th or better at Indianapolis and Martin’s average finish of 12.8 over the last twenty flat track races is sixth-best in the series.

14. Clint Bowyer - Clint has pretty much been a teens driver at the flat tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change very much on Sunday. At Indianapolis, his average finish is 11.8 over six career starts, and from 2008 to early 2010, Bowyer posted four top 12 finishes in five races at Phoenix. His average driver rating of 90.7 over the last twenty flat track races is 11th-best in the series.

15. Martin Truex, Jr. - There’s a few reason’s I like Martin Truex, Jr. as a solid sleeper this weekend. First, he has some momentum. I know it doesn’t mean much with Truex, but after last week’s 8th-place run in Texas, he now has three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Another reason? He wasn’t too bad at Phoenix before it got re-paved. In the last five races here, Martin hasn’t finished worse than 17th and posted a solid 5th-place finish after starting from the pole in this race in the 2009 season. Finally, Truex’s flat track record hasn’t been too bad this season: excluding Indianapolis in July, Martin’s worst finish in the other five races was 16th. Keep your eye on the #56 Toyota in practice.

Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:

David Reutimann - How would you feel if you knew you were out of a ride after two more races? Normally I’d say that a driver is racing for a ride next season and they could be a good pick, but David Reutimann is an exception. He’s been terrible pretty much all year and has just one finish better than 19th on the flat tracks this season. In the last three Phoenix races, Reutty hasn’t had a driver rating better than 69.4. Better luck in the future, David.

David Ragan - Ragan is another driver that is racing for his Sprint Cup life, but he has been doing so all year. It’s possible that this David will surprise me on Sunday (it has happened a few times this season) but I just don’t see it happening at all. His average finish of 26.1 in nine career starts at Phoenix isn’t great to say the least, and aside from a few decent runs, he’s a mid-twenties driver at best on the flat tracks.

Jamie McMurray - I’m willing to bet that this entire team can’t wait for the 2011 season to end. After last week’s 36th-place finish in Texas last Sunday, McMurray now has five-straight finishes outside of the top 20 in Sprint Cup action, and while his record at Indianapolis is impressive (13.1 career average finish), Jamie has finished in the top 20 in just one of the six flat track races this season.

Credit: Phoenix International Raceway

1) Practice will be extremely important this week and luckily we get to see two practice sessions before qualifying (weekend schedule of events). This will not be your typical Phoenix race weekend. The track changed in such significant ways that solely going off past Phoenix information will get you lapped this weekend. In fantasy racing it’s always best to go off the most recent data and none will be more relevant then practice this weekend.

2) Qualifying and track position will be a must at the newly reconfigured Phoenix International Raceway. In all of the driver interviews I’ve seen about the new track surface they all sounded hesitant that a second groove didn’t exist yet. However Phoenix track officials have been hard at work and have been artificially laying down rubber on the track so come race time this might be a non issue (Pictures). On Saturday there will also be a Nationwide race so I think a second groove will come in.

3) Since the new Phoenix layout is substantially different I’m choosing to study Richmond as a good reference point for how to approach Phoenix from a fantasy NASCAR perspective. I think the new layout looks a lot more like Richmond then it does the old Phoenix.

Drivers to watch in the Kobalt Tools 500:

Tony Stewart – Can anyone stop Tony Stewart? I’m guessing not this week. Tony Stewart has spent 4 days testing at Phoenix and the 14 team sounds confident. The determination level of this team can’t be matched and their willing their way to the championship. I know if I were Carl Edwards I would be scared. Stewart finished 7th and 9th at Richmond this year and he had one of the better cars at Phoenix in February.

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a quick learner and he’ll be a contender for the win in the Kobalt Tools 500. Hopefully you read my post about how I theorize Phoenix will race like Richmond. It will help you understand my fantasy perspective as we venture into the unknown. At Richmond Kevin Harvick won and led more than half the race (202 laps).

Jeff Gordon – Gordon won at the old Phoenix track configuration earlier this year but in NASCAR sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same. I expect Jeff Gordon to be strong once again when the green flag waves in the Kobalt Tools 500. Gordon has been perhaps the best driver in the series on this track type in 2011 and at Richmond he had the field covered in the regular season finale. His downfall was pit road and poor restarts. At Richmond he finished 3rd and had the 5th best driver rating 108.4.

Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion and earlier this year he won the pole at the old Phoenix track configuration. What happened on the old configuration is still viable fantasy information. It may not be as important as studying Richmond but it still has its place. At Richmond in September Carl Edwards was very impressive but the 99 team utilized the wrong pit strategy. He finished second but if Paul Menard didn’t spin bringing out the last caution then he would’ve finished pretty poorly. Edwards had the second best average running position in that race (4th).

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has tested at the newly reconfigured Phoenix multiple times. At Richmond Kyle Busch is a three-time winner and he’s only finished lower than 16th twice in fourteen races. He won in April and in the regular season finale he finished 6th despite having damage and going a lap down because of a caution during the pit cycle. The last time NASCAR visited a new track Busch emerged the victor.

(NOTE: All of these drivers participated in the August tire test and they all participated in the October open test).

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum over the last five races:

1. Tony Stewart
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Greg Biffle
6. Clint Bowyer
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Kevin Harvick
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Jimmie Johnson

VegasInsider.com Odds to win the Kobalt Tools 500:

• Jimmie Johnson 4/1
• Tony Stewart 5/1
• Jeff Gordon 6/1
• Carl Edwards 7/1
• Greg Biffle 10/1
• Matt Kenseth 10/1
• Denny Hamlin 12/1
• Kyle Busch 12/1
• Kevin Harvick 15/1
• Kurt Busch 15/1

Smoke has won four of the eight 2011 Chase races, including the last two. And even though Edwards leads in the standings, it is the Stewart wins at Martinsville and Texas that have driven a spike through the heart of Jimmie Johnson’s six year reign of NASCAR terror.

Put the garlic away NASCAR Nation - Count Johnson is dead - metaphorically. Even Jeff Gordon will be able to sleep at night again - actually.

What? You think I’m over reacting? With 30 laps to go at TMS whom do you think Stewart and Jack Roush were watching closer - Kevin Harvick and The Kez, or Count Five Time?

But it’s over. The people of Transylvania and Dixie can open their windows at night and turn on the Speed Channel again. No more Sunday nightmares. California Dreamin’ will be sung by the Beach Boys again, not Chad and Jimmie.

But seriously, Johnson and the #48 team had an unbelievable run, there’s nothing supernatural about it. Just a great team, and a magic time. I just have one question.

Has anybody ever seen Johnson’s reflection in a mirror?

Photo credit: Round girl Cyndi by BethAnne Heisler for OnPitRow.com

Ideally, Gossage would love to see the points lead change hands today. It’ll make the race one of the most interesting ones in the Chase, but mostly it’ll help him sell even more tickets to this race in the future. And, if it happens again, it’ll firmly entrench Texas as perhaps the most pivotal race in the Chase.

Remember what happened last season. Denny Hamlin took the win in this race after leading 31 laps, inheriting the points lead in a 47-point swing from Jimmie Johnson, who finished ninth. That’s roughly an 11-point swing under this year’s point system, which would be good enough to give Stewart the lead if he did the same thing.

Then again, perhaps that wouldn’t be such a good omen. The only driver to take the title after winning at Texas was Johnson in 2007 since this race was established in 2005. Edwards took the checkers in 2008, only to finish second in points; Hamlin did the same thing last year. Edwards was too far back in the Chase to catch Johnson, though he would have won the championship under a non-Chase format. Meanwhile, Hamlin blew it the next week at Phoenix and gave the point lead right back.

Whoever wins today, though, Gossage probably hopes they’re leaving with the points lead. Stewart could do it easily; Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and even spring Texas race winner Matt Kenseth could do it with a bit of luck. Today should be a Texas-sized shootout, and Gossage is loving every second of it.

Danica Patrick is a helluva driver. She’s also a marketing person’s dream. Funny too. Now she’s officially a ten. No more argument.

Photo credit: Getty Images for NASCAR

During The Last Race At Texas…It was a Roush-Fenway type of day back in April at this track. Matt Kenseth got his first win of this 2011 season after leading 169 of the 334 laps. His team mates didn’t fare too bad, either, with Carl Edwards finishing 3rd and Greg Biffle following him to the line in 4th. Clint Bowyer, who led 44 laps that day, wound up 2nd, and Paul Menard rounded out the top 5. One interesting statistic from that race: eight of the drivers who started in the top 10 that day also finished there.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The AAA Texas 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Matt Kenseth - Load up on Roush this weekend, that’s all I’m going to say. Kenseth may have saw his title hopes go down the drain last weekend in Martinsville, so he needs a good run this weekend and he’s coming to the perfect track. As I said before, Matt is the most recent winner at Texas, and in the last five races here, he has post four top 5s. What’s even more impressing than that is since 2005 (twelve races), Kenseth has eight top 5s and a worst finish of 20th. His average finish of 9th here is the best in the series and Kenseth has led more laps (669) than anyone at this track.

2. Carl Edwards - If this Chase has shown anything to me, it’s that Carl Edwards is going to win this year’s championship. This team (and driver) continue to overcome obstacle after obstacle and Cousin Carl now hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since Michigan in August. Seriously. Edwards’ record at Texas Motor Speedway is shaky to say the least (16.5 average finish in thirteen starts) but he is a three-time winner here and finished 3rd in the spring. Carl has been a model of consistency this season and that’s what you need to win a fantasy NASCAR championship (as well as a Sprint Cup championship).

3. Jimmie Johnson - I’ll make this quick. Sixteen starts at Texas Motor Speedway, twelve top 10 finishes and just two finishes outside of the top 20. Johnson has just one win here (back in 2007) but has finished 2nd four other times and is on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track. As you probably remember, “The Champ” wrecked in Charlotte, relegating him to a 34th place finish, but before that Johnson finished in the top 10 in each of the five intermediate tri-oval races prior. It’s the Chase, don’t go against the #48. That should be written in a rule book or something.

4. Greg Biffle - If The Biff is going to put a one in the victory column this season, Texas is the best place for him to do so. Finishing the race has plagued this team all season but one of these times everything is going to go as planned, right? Texas isn’t one of Biffle’s best tracks statistically, but in the last five races here, no other driver has been better. In that span, Greg has cranked out top 10s in each race (with three being top 5s) and his average driver rating of 113.9 is the best of all drivers. He won here in 2005 after starting 5th and leading 219 of the 334 laps.

5. Denny Hamlin - This is Hamlin’s fifth-best track on the circuit, and after last week’s solid 5th-place run at Martinsville, not only does it seem like Denny has his reliability back, but this team also has some momentum, as that makes three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Hamlin finished 15th here in April, which is okay, but a bit disappointing for him because in the three races prior, Denny captured two victories and a runner-up finish as well. His average finish of 9.3 in twelve career starts at Texas is bested only by Matt Kenseth’s 9.0.

6. Tony Stewart - This weekend is a little similar to last weekend for “Smoke.” He hasn’t been great recently at Texas (32nd, 11th, and 12th-place finishes in the last three races), but his overall history at this track is pretty good. We all know what happened last weekend. Stewart has made nineteen career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and has finished inside the top 10 in more than half of them (ten). He visited victory lane here in 2006, and Tony hasn’t been too bad on the tri-oval intermediates in 2011: 8th most recently at Charlotte and a worst finish of 15th in the past six events. I haven’t been real high on Stewart this season (I’ve started him just once in my Yahoo! league) but you can’t go against the momentum this team has right now.

7. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother isn’t dominant at Texas Motor Speedway, but I don’t see why you won’t be able to rely on him for a solid top 10 finish on Sunday. In seventeen career starts here, Kurt has only three top 5s (including a win in 2009), but he has a total of eleven top 10s, and four of those have came in the last five events here. His average driver rating of 97.7 in those last five races is good enough for sixth-best in the series. On the intermediate tri-oval tracks this season, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 13th, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday.

8. Kevin Harvick - Surprisingly, to me anyway, Kevin Harvick now has eight top 12 finishes in the last nine Sprint Cup events after last week’s 4th-place effort in Martinsville, and I just don’t see that changing this weekend. At Texas Motor Speedway, Kevin has made seventeen career starts and has came away with eight top 10s and a total of fourteen top 20s. In the last four tri-oval intermediate races, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas, and Charlotte, “Happy” has finished 7th, 2nd, 6th, and 6th, respectively. He finished 20th here in April but before that, Harvick had three-straight top 10s at this track.

9. Mark Martin - Obviously, with the way his season is going, ranking Mark Martin this high might not be the smartest move, but this guy’s luck has to turn around some time, doesn’t it? At Chicago and Kansas Martin finished 9th and 10th, respectively, and I think he has a chance to do that again this weekend. At Texas, Mark has made twenty-one career starts and owns an average finish of 13.5 and twelve top 10 finishes (as well as one win, which came back in 1998). He laid an egg in the April race here (36th) but before that, Martin had four-straight top 6 finishes at this track, and that 36th earlier this year has been Mark’s only finish outside of the top 12 since 2007. His average driver rating of 92.9 over the past five races at Texas is eighth-best in the series.

10. Jeff Burton - Am I going crazy? Not one bit. I don’t know if you have noticed (I didn’t until I looked it up), but Jeff Burton now has two straight top 10 finishes and seven top 15 finishes in the last ten Sprint Cup races. Quite a turnaround from earlier this year when I wrote him off after so many disappointing runs. What’s even more re-assuring is Burton’s record at Texas: in twenty-one career starts here, Jeff has two wins and an average finish of 15.9. What’s more impressive is that he has only finished outside of the top 20 six times in those twenty-one races. And what’s even more impressive yet is that Burton has just one finish outside of the top 13 in the last nine races at Texas. Don’t let the #31 slip by you this weekend.

11. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has been great or ‘just okay’ in the tri-oval intermediate tracks this season, and that’s also how his history at Texas Motor Speedway is as well. In thirteen career starts here, Kyle Busch has five finishes in the top 6, but he also has four finishes outside of the top 20. In the last five races at this track, Busch has the fourth-best average driver rating (101.7) but just the sixteenth-best average finish (16.0). If Kyle is on your roster this weekend, you better hope he hasn’t called it a season already.

12. Clint Bowyer - Clint hasn’t been outstanding on the intermediate tracks this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him fighting for a top 10 at the end of the AAA Texas 500 on Sunday. In eleven career starts here, Bowyer owns an average finish of 13.4–good enough for sixth-best in the series–and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. In three of the last four races at Texas, Clint has ended up in the top 10, and, like I said before, he finished runner-up to Matt Kenseth in April (and also led 44 laps).

13. Kasey Kahne - In the last two tri-oval intermediate races (Kansas and Charlotte), Kasey Kahne has finished 2nd and 4th, but otherwise this season he has been a teens driver on this type of track. Don’t get me wrong, he could definitely pull off another top 5 on Sunday in Texas, but I want to see what kind of car he has before ranking him that high. Kahne won here in 2006 but that is one of just three top 10s he has here in fourteen career starts. All three were also top 5s, though, so when Kasey is good here, he’s really good. If he starts in the top 5 and looks good in practice, I wouldn’t think twice about starting Kahne.

14. David Ragan - As I said before, load up on the Roushkateers. David Ragan started on the pole in the April race here and led 11 laps en route to a solid 7th-place finish. In the last seven races here, he has just one finish worse than 17th, and in the last two Ragan has finished in the top 10. He’s racing for a ride for next season and it seems like drivers come through in the clutch when that happens.

15. Brad Keselowski - This ranking will probably be a little too low for “Bad Brad” when it’s all said and done on Sunday, but there’s just 14 other drivers I like better than him going into the weekend. This team’s ability to adjust on the car during the race is simply amazing, though, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Keselowski ended up in victory lane once again before this season ends. At Texas, he has made six career starts with his best finish coming in the spring race last season, which was 14th. Earlier this year at this track, Keselowski led 32 laps but ended up finishing 18th. In the last six tri-oval intermediate races, Brad hasn’t finished worse than 16th. There’s definitely a lot of potential with this team right now.

Those To Avoid Entering The AAA Texas 500:

Brian Vickers - I’m a little worried about someone getting payback against Vickers this week (is there a driver he didn’t run into in Martinsville?), but what is more troublesome is his history at this track: in thirteen career starts at Texas, Vickers has zero top 10s and an average finish of 24.1.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” finished 4th in this race last season, but you know what they say: even a blind squirrel finds nut once in a while. In his five other starts at this track, Logano has managed a best finish of 19th and has never finished on the lead lap. In April, Joey started 8th but ended up 24th despite having one of the worst driver ratings (56.8) of the non-start and parkers.

Jamie McMurray - Yeah, Jamie Mac screwed me on some of my fantasy rosters last week as well. He has a decent record here at Texas (career average finish of 16.9) but he has only one top 20 finish here since 2008 and McMurray has been god-awful on the intermediates this year: one top 20–a 16th at Atlanta–on the nine tri-oval intermediate tracks in 2011.

1) First and foremost you should pick a driver based on recent intermediate track performances. I would specifically recommend you study what happened in the Atlanta, Chicagoland, Kansas and Charlotte races. The key to making a good pick can be found by studying these races.

2) As with any track it’s important to study a drivers track history. When I write my fantasy content I typically go back to the start of the COT era at the track.

3) Practice is extremely important this week. Picking a driver who struggles in practice certainly won’t pay off this week.

4) Qualifying and track position is important every week but in today’s NASCAR it can be overcome quite easily with pit strategy. Pick the best cars, and only use qualifying as a tie breaker when you need to pick between drivers.

Elite Drivers at Texas:

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth snapped his long 76 race winless streak in April at Texas Motor Speedway. Kenseth didn’t only win, he dominated. He led 169 laps and had a near perfect 144.7 driver rating. Since 2007 Kenseth has truly been a “Elite Top Tier” driver. He has the best average finish (5.9), best average running position (9.1), best driver rating (108.4), ran and he’s led 354 laps (third most). His win at Charlotte last month is why I’m projecting him as the race winner.

Jimmie Johnson – His championship aspirations are over but that doesn’t mean he won’t get more “W’s”. The least amount of wins Johnson has accumulated in a season is three so I think he has another in him. Johnson won at Texas in 2007 and in the last three races his average finish is 6.3. Johnson has only finished outside the top fifteen twice at Texas in his entire career and both of those were due to crashes. What I really like about Johnson is how strong he’s been on intermediate tracks in the second half of the season. Don’t let his Charlotte performance scare you away from picking him, remember he was running in the top ten before the late accident parked him.

Greg Biffle – There’s no question Biffle has problems closing the deal this season. However I wouldn’t overlook him this week. He’s due for good fortune and I think it will come this week. Even though he’s a remarkably inconsistent driver no one can say that about him at Texas. He’s finished in the top ten in six consecutive races. No other driver in the series has an active streak longer than two. In these six races he’s led more laps than anyone (339), has the best average finish (5.9) and the best driver rating (113.8).

Tony Stewart – Stewart hasn’t finished in the top ten at Texas since 2009 but I think he’ll be a top tier driver Sunday. Throughout the Chase Stewart has been as good as anyone on intermediate tracks. He won at Chicagoland, ran good at Kansas before pit strategy stranded him mid pack (finished 15th), and ran good at Charlotte (8th, pit strategy issues once again). In these three races his 115.8 driver rating ranks as the third best in the series. His 112 points accumulated ranks as the 4th best (37.3 points per race).

Carl Edwards – Edwards is a three time Texaswinner who finished 3rd in April. He started second and recorded his 4th highest driver rating of this season (116.0). Edwards is always a serious threat at 1.5 mile tracks. His recent history at Texas isn’t the best but you need to take in account him racing with a broken leg and a crash in the last 3/4ths of race after he ran good. In the three 1.5 mile track races in the Chase Edwards has finished 4th (Chicagoland), 5th (Kansas) and 3rd (Charlotte). I would expect similar results but there’s also a possibility he might start dialing back and race conservatively (4 tires every pit stop, no fuel strategy etc).

Check out more of driver rankings : “Elite Top Tier“, “Front Runners“, “Mid Packers” and “Back Runners“

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Texas Pre Race Loop Data Book
• Box Score From The Texas Race Earlier This Year
• 5 Year Texas Averages
• Texas Entry List

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Momentum Over The Last Five Races:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Kasey Kahne
3. Tony Stewart
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Kevin Harvick
7. Clint Bowyer
8. Jeff Burton
9. Jimmie Johnson
10. Brad Keselowski

VegasInsider.com Odds To Win

• Jimmie Johnson 5/1
• Kyle Busch 5/1
• Tony Stewart 6/1
• Jeff Gordon 6/1
• Matt Kenseth 7/1
• Carl Edwards 7/1
• Kevin Harvick 10/1
• Denny Hamlin 14/1
• Kurt Busch 16/1
• Clint Bowyer 18/1