Bet Your Life Sports Trading

Trigger Happy

2012-02-03T11:29:00.002Z

I came across this technique the other day, where back bets are triggered by falling odds in-running.

The trader was using Evo, which I don't. Fairbot is the only other trading application I've managed to get working under Linux - and the developers have vowed to continue supporting it under Linux. Unfortunately, it doesn't have a triggering mechanism like that shown in the video.

So, emboldened by the bot writing I've been doing, I decided to write my own 'trigger bot'. It's still a bit of a Heath Robinson, rough and ready beast, but I'll put it to the test today. It will only fire in the back bets. I'll use Fairbot to trade out initially, if at all.

Given that Fairbot will be running concurrently, there's a potential issue with data charges, but as the bot will be using the free API, I've calculated that I should be OK. Fingers crossed.

I'm more concerned that the throttling of the API calls by the free API will mean that the market will have gone well past my desired entry point by the time the code recognises that the trigger has been reached. Consequently, back bets might not be taken until the runner is drifting again.

A case of 'suck it and see' for the next couple of days.

Hope For Traders Using Linux?

2012-01-20T12:00:00.000Z

I was recently browsing the Geeks Toy forum and came across a thread posted by someone who has managed to get The Toy working on Linux.

I gave it a quick go yesterday and although it installed OK, I kept getting an error when trying to log on. As I do not scalp the markets these days and arguably have no need for such software, I haven't bothered to investigate the reason. I suspect it may be something to do with the version of Wine I am running - the latest stable release, version 1.2.3. The original poster is using version 1.3.28 which is a development version.

I have other applications running that I do not want to risk breaking by installing a development version of Wine, so any future attempt will have to wait.

Anyway, I thought I'd bring it to your attention, if you haven't seen it already.

About Bloody Time!

2012-01-11T10:43:00.001Z

Happy New Year to one and all!

It's been a while since I felt the urge to put fingers to keyboard. Apparently, I've been very busy flipping burgers. Not sure in which Quantum universe that's been happening. Here in this universe I've been very busy developing systems that could be automated. It's a never ending process as ideas pop up quicker than I can code them.

Over the years I've done lots of database applications using MS Access and programming/scripting in a variety of different languages. I haven't done much for a while, simply because I'm not a very efficient coder and I find the whole process pretty tedious. However, creating some bots has given the impetus to learn MySQL and PHP programming.

Being able to create something that makes me money certainly helps to relieve the boredom and allows me to get my creative juices flowing all the more. Which leads me on to my first gripe of the year...

I've just seen the report on BBC News about a change of emphasis in ICT classes in our schools. About bloody time!

I'd like to draw your attention to a couple of quotes that I found particularly poignant:

"Instead of children bored out of their minds being taught how to use Word or Excel by bored teachers, we could have 11-year-olds able to write simple 2D computer animations".

"Children are being forced to learn how to use applications, rather than to make them. They are becoming slaves to the user interface and are totally bored by it".

I'm not arguing that current ICT should suddenly switch to making everyone computer scientists. Far from it. The use of general office apps and computer skills are valuable skills that everyone should have, but even the teaching of these should have a change in emphasis in my view.

I firmly believe that we shouldn't be teaching our kids how to use Word or Excel. They should be taught how to use word processing and spreadsheet software - i.e. give kids a better understanding of how these applications work and they'll easily be able to work out how to move around the interface of any application all on their own.

I've made my living supporting Microsoft applications and training people how to use them, yet I have always been concerned by the way our kids are completely indoctrinated in the Microsoft way. Microsoft have always been keen to push their solutions into our public services, particularly our schools, with heavy discounts (though still expensive to the tax payer).

Don't be misled into thinking that they do this for altruistic reasons. No, they do it because when those kids leave school and become captains of industry, they'll be the decision makers controlling the IT budgets. Microsoft know if those people have already been indoctrinated, they're more than likely turn to Microsoft again.

In the vast majority of cases those future decision makers would likely turn to Microsoft anyway. However, I think it would be much better for our kids, the companies that they work for in the future and the wider economy as a whole, that our children are given a much rounder and unbiased grounding in ICT, without being unduly influenced at the tax payers expense.

While I am happy that there is a drive to change the teaching of ICT in our schools, I fear that it may not go far enough. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

Deal Or No Deal?

2011-10-07T12:10:00.003+01:00

Does anyone else get hacked off hearing the Deal Or No Deal theme tune being played on a continuous loop whenever you load up the in-play coupon for the day when logged in to Betfair?

You can if you want, block that nonsense from appearing in your browser by adding the following line to your 'hosts' file:

127.0.0.1 content.betfair.com

You may need to restart your browser and/or reload the page as well as clear the cache.

Note, that this blocks everything from content.betfair.com which is where the arcade stuff comes from. Instead, your browser may display something like 'Web page not found' in the section of your browser where this content appears. If this is an issue, or you like to get involved in the arcade games etc, then this fix will be a no deal for you. Instead, turn your volume down :)

For me, it's a deal. Job done!

Happy Days

2011-09-30T12:31:00.001+01:00

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Fairbot Trial

2011-09-16T17:07:00.003+01:00

Well, that's the end of my trial period on the latest version of Fairbot on Linux. I have to say it went very well. It didn't help my horse trading, but then that wasn't the point of the exercise. Indeed, I only revisited the pre-race horse markets so that I could give the software a good workout. My trading is migrating away from the horse markets for which I have failed to develop any consistency. For what I intend to do now, Fairbot will suit very well indeed.

It has all the standard tools one would expect from a trading application, i.e. tick offset, stop losses etc, and I will be making great use of its excellent Dutching facility.

The only issue I had with it was the help system. It wouldn't display the content for any topics I selected. For anyone who has used other trading applications, most, if not all of the interface is self-explanatory so it may not be that much of an issue for you. I suspect the issues lies with my installation of Wine, or at least an application I haven't installed under Wine. In any case, I've reported the problem back to the developers, Binteko.

For those that are interested, I followed the same procedure as outlined in my original Fairbot on Linux post (noting the comments section as well).

I'm currently using Ubuntu 10.04 LTS so I had to add the Wine repository to my software sources in order to get the latest, stable version of Wine, i.e. version 1.2.3 prior to installing Fairbot 2.96.

Andrey at Binteko has since provided me with updated installation instructions for anyone that is interested. I haven't gone through this myself so if my original instructions do not work for you, try those below (or vice versa).

I used Ubuntu 10.10, GNOME 2.32.0

1. Install WINE using the Software Center. I installed Wine 1.2.1.

2. Download and install Winetricks using this command in the Terminal:

wget http://www.kegel.com/wine/winetricks

3. Perform the following command form the Terminal to open Wintricks configuration tool:

sh winetricks

4. Tick "msxml4" and "ie6" items and click OK button to install them.

5. Download the latest version of FairBot using the following link:
http://www.binteko.com/download/fairbot.exe

6. Install it. And it should work after installation.

Best regards,
Andrey
Binteko Software http://www.binteko.com

Andrey has also been good enough to confirm to me that Fairbot Linux support will continue, which is good news.

You Couldn't Make It Up

2011-09-08T10:49:00.001+01:00

Earlier in the year I posted my intention to give up self-employment and look for a proper job. With the state of the economy, finding suitable employment has been very difficult. The latest body blow has been delivered by a recruitment agency.

Despite having a BSc in Electrical and Electronic Engineering as well as a Postgraduate Diploma in Software Engineering; despite being a Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer, a Microsoft Certified Professional in the Internet and a Microsoft Certified Product Specialist in Excel; despite my excellent communication skills having presented numerous technical seminars all over Europe and trained hundreds of people in a variety of software applications; despite excellent troubleshooting and business process analysis skills; despite that and much more, the recruitment agency more or less told me I'm unemployable!!!!

I suspect it is down to my age (I'm 50 in January) coupled with the fact I've been working part-time for the past eight years as I took on the role of single parent. Still, if they think I've got no hope, they really should meet some of my clients.

One long term client has been told by me for over a decade that the IT skills in the firm - from the top down to the bottom of the tree - are woeful. Over that time, there's been no improvement. Only recently I had to show one user how to maximise a window and tell another, for the umpteenth time, that Word cannot read PDF files.

The latest wheeze is the drive by the directors towards a paperless office. They've assigned a member of staff to scan all incoming documents and send the resulting PDF to the director concerned as an email attachment. This can all be handled quite easily by the printer/scanner combo that they have.

Imagine my amusement then when the user was busy scanning in the documents received that day only to watch them reappear as the corresponding director printed them out as the emails came in.

Nope, you couldn't make it up.

Thoughts On Value

2011-09-06T00:01:00.002+01:00

I spent an excellent weekend at the BTCC meeting held at my local circuit, Knockhill. In the quiet spells between races, my mind drifted towards thoughts of value in football matches. In particular, defining value in-play. When do the odds become value, if ever, if they weren't value pre-KO? I found myself thinking of Schrödinger's cat - the thought experiment in the field of quantum mechanics.

I don't claim to be an expert. Far from it, but essentially it involves a cat being placed inside a black box that contains a device that at any moment can kill the cat. At any given point in time, how do we know whether the cat is alive or dead? We don't - not until the box is opened. The theory suggests that it is the act of observation, i.e. looking inside the box, that determines the status of the cat. Also, the theory implies that, as I understand it, as long as the box is closed and no observation has taken place, the cat can be said to be alive and dead at the same time - which leads on to the multi universe hypothesis. But that's a discussion for another day.

How does that translate to value betting? Granted, it may be a rather loose analogy, but I think of it this way...

In the days before in-play markets were available to us, betting on a football match was very much like the black box above. Once the ref blew his whistle for the start of the game, the contents of the box, from the point of view of the bet, where unknown - and indeed irrelevant. The money was down and there was nothing the punter could do about it.

Sensible gamblers would try and find value prior to kick off. That value would be based on probability of what the end result would be after 90 minutes. What happened in-between was of no importance as far as the end result was concerned.

Now, introduce in-play betting and does that value bet change? If it was value before KO do those pre-KO odds still represent value once the in-play metaphorical box is opened and we can see it's contents? I don't see why not as it is based on what the end result is. The fact that we can now observe the contents of the box doesn't change that. That is true if we intend not to do anything about it. But what happens when the odds change in-play. At what point can we say that the original bet is no longer value and should we do anything about it?

Keep in mind the well accepted fact that always betting on value will be profitable in the long term, so should we do anything about it if what we observe in the box changes? An interesting conundrum.

The opposite view can also be taken. If we deem the pre-KO odds to not be of value, at what point do they become value in-play? In either case, value or not, should we intervene when the box opens?

Lets take an example of a team who is favoured by the market and the odds are deemed to be value pre-KO. If the other team scores, the odds of our team will rise. Now, in the case of the sealed box, given that the pre-KO odds were deemed of value, these new odds must be of value. But this is where the 'observation' influences our choice.

As those of you who have used the 'Lay the Draw' trading method will appreciate, if the dog scores first, the draw odd often decrease slightly as the market expects the favourite to equalise.

This clearly leads on to a strategy where one looks for pre-match value favs going a goal behind
and backing them once the market settles again. A simple plan that should, in the long term prove profitable, assuming the dog scores relatively early on in the match. Having said that, if the pre-match odds are deemed to be of value, then it shouldn't matter when the dog scores. The resulting odds on the once favourite will still be of value when considering the initial opening gambit from the point of view of a sealed box.

It is the act of observing the odds change in-play that influence our responses to what's inside the box. Sometimes it can be simpler just to keep the box shut, though, just like Schrödinger's cat, not knowing what's happening inside the box can lead to complicated theories that prove of no use to us, until we look inside. And therein lies the paradox.

Another Fairbot Trial

2011-09-01T21:29:00.003+01:00

Some time ago I investigated running Fairbot on my Linux box using the Windows compatible API provided by Wine ('Wine is not an emulator'). The installation on Linux procedure for Fairbot, and it's Betdaq sister application, Daqbot, is one of the more popular posts on the blog.

Despite that trial installation, I never actually used it in anger, though I did use Daqbot a fair bit earlier in the year. With my new strategies and moving away from pre-race horse trading, I found Daqbot provided me with the facilities I needed. Unfortunately, Betdaq didn't, due to its lack of liquidity. Hence my renewed look at Fairbot.

First impressions are positive. It looks pretty old fashioned now when compared to more recent trading applications, though I quite like the retro feel it has. I have been playing in the pre-race markets for small stakes simply to spend lots of time getting a feel for what it is doing and certainly not as yet another attempt to get into these markets.

I'm sticking to my backing and laying strategies in the horse markets thank you, and they are progressing very well. I'll be looking at other strategies as I go. To that end, the excellent dutching tool will meet my needs nicely.

Any trading on the ladder interface will be in the football markets. Something I've been wanting to get into for ages, and I'm finally getting off my backside to do something about it.

Assuming the trial goes well, and I see no reason why it shouldn't, I'll pay for a year subscription. Sounds an unusual thing to do when there are free trading applications out there. Well, they don't run on Linux and Fairbot does. Enough said.

Laugh? I Nearly Passed My Fags Round!

2011-08-26T16:57:00.001+01:00

I so hope this is true. The tears have been streaming down my cheeks since Herman posted the link in the chat room. Enjoy!

Scottish Football In Decline

2011-08-26T11:37:00.001+01:00

With no further Scottish involvement in the European competitions this year, many are wondering what has happened to the beautiful game north of the border - as if this is a sudden development. I'm very sorry to say, Scottish football has been in decline for years.

Perhaps it is the Ally McLeod effect, but Scots always seem to think we should be mixing it with the big boys. Why? Other than the odd aberration, it's been a long long time since we even came close to doing that consistently.

The standard of football in Scotland is appalling. The skill levels of those playing in my homeland are woeful. The style of football is dire - route one works if you can pass accurately over the distance and have the skills to control the ball when it arrives, neither of which is in the skill set possessed by most players plying their 'trade' in Scotland.

I'm old enough to remember when virtually all the teams in the top flight in England had strong Scottish back bones. Now, you'd be hard pushed to find a handful of Scots playing regular first team football in the English Premiership.

Much of the blame has to lie with the short term view of many of the clubs; the structure of the game in Scotland where too many clubs are chasing too few supporters; and the inability of the authorities to encourage home grown talent through whatever means.

Then of course, there is money. When the SPL was awash with TV money, relatively speaking, too many clubs thought they could buy success by bringing in second rate foreigners - with the inevitable rise in wage bills to go with it. I know it sounds terribly jingoistic but if these players are not good enough to secure a place with a top club in England or Spain, why do Scottish clubs insist on replacing second rate Scottish players with their foreigner counterparts at much greater cost? Surely it would be better to spend that money developing home grown talent over a longer term.

Put it another way, why would any foreigner come to play in Scotland if they have the talent to compete in the English Premiership? What sane person would want to sign for the Old Firm say, only to find themselves in Paisley playing against St Mirren on a freezing cold Wednesday evening in December? Quite frankly, it beggars believe!

Sorting out Scottish football is an almost insurmountable problem. It needs a complete rethink, and I'd start with the kids. I'd scrap this ridiculous dumbing down of sport in our schools where the loony brigade have forced non-competitive sport on our children for years. Sport is meant to be competitive you morons! If a kid doesn't like being beaten so what? They can try others until they find one they are good at. Not everyone can be a top class athlete but the State shouldn't try and 'include' them at the expense of the ones that have the potential.

Encouraging the clubs to take a longer term view is essential as well. In many ways, the current economic climate may well force them to do that anyway, but I won't hold my breath.

I'm not claiming to have all the answers to a very complex issue. There's certainly no easy, quick fixes. One thing is for sure. My fellow countrymen should stop being so deluded regarding our place in the footballing world. We're crap and we've been so for years and it will take many years to get back to anything like where we were when I was a boy.

More Of These Please

2011-08-24T20:41:00.001+01:00

As mentioned in the chat room earlier today, Raktiman, a cracking long shot in the 18:40 at Wolverhampton, comes in at 46.0 BSP.

The lay system I have mentioned on here in the past also makes picks to back/dutch and today's winner is just one of many. Indeed, over the past 28 months worth of historical data, the system, although originally designed to pick lays, has produced a significantly better return for its back picks than its lays.

Long may it continue.

Practice, Practice, Practice

2011-08-15T11:33:00.003+01:00

My horse lay/back system didn't flag up anything of interest yesterday, so I took the opportunity to exercise my sudden, new found enthusiasm for learning to trade football. I spent Sunday wading through a total of 13 football matches. Strangely enough, I was employing an idea of my own, rather than the strategies I mentioned in my previous post and available at Betting System Notes - I'm still reading through them all.

I was only paper trading this idea, watching the markets and getting a feel for how the odds move and whether or not the strategy is viable. The strategy looks to be in and out before half time, with the second half available for damage limitation if things go wrong.

In a way, I was disappointed with the results as ten out of the thirteen went to plan. That might seem a strange thing to say, since, it appears from yesterday's very small sample, that, in principle, the strategy is sound. This is a good thing of course. However, the most important skill in being a trader is the ability to limit losses and this requires skills that can only be acquired through luck or practice. I prefer the latter.

So, with only three of those needing damage limitation measures, the day proved a little less frantic than I had hoped. In the end, I managed to limit losses to around £6 in each case and would have secured a decent profit for the day, on paper at least.

So, this particular strategy seems to be promising. I just need to practice the process of reducing liabilities when things go wrong and adjust according.

Another Cunning Plan

2011-08-13T22:56:00.003+01:00

Though perhaps not as cunning as "a fox that used to be Professor of Cunning at Oxford University but has moved on and is now working for the U.N. at the High Commission of International Cunning Planning".

You will no doubt have noticed the addition of a new graphic in the sidebar for Betting System Notes. This is a new service from Darren Hall of bet72.com with two particular things of interest to me:

Firstly, the system notes facility comes with 13 proven football trading strategies already built in. I've been promising myself for what seems like an age to get into football trading, yet I have continually put it off as I persued what turned out to be my forlorn hope of pre-race horse trading. Having access to such strategies will hopefully provide a 'leg up' onto the footy trading ladder.

Secondly, they just added a new feature for searching the Betfair football markets against certain criteria. This in itself was the clincher and worth the £39.99 payment alone as it would take me ages, with my limited programming skills, to create my own similar functions for which I have a few strategies in mind. This will serve that purpose nicely. Not only that though, the facility, assuming you tell it too, automatically flags which of the aforementioned built-in strategies are suitable for each game it finds - a valuable time saver when researching matches.

As an added bonus for me, these tools are on-line. As a Linux user, I often miss out on such tools and utilities since every man and his dog sticks with developing for the Evil Empire. Irrespective of your chosen platform, being Internet based, you'll be able to access it from anywhere without having to have software installed on your laptop etc.

So, with the new season firmly upon us, it is time to get my finger out, diversify and increase my somewhat meagre portfolio of systems and trading skills. No doubt, I'll let you know how I get on as I try to get up to speed.

Time For Another Moan

2011-08-12T16:06:00.005+01:00

On my soapbox again, so you've been warned!

Last year, at great expense, I had an architect draw up plans for alterations to my house - I'm combining the diningroom and the kitchen into one big room, before gutting the kitchen units and putting new ones in. We organised four different builders to give me quotes. Only one of them bothered to come out and see the job, the rest quoted based on the architect's drawings. All of them quoted ridiculously high figures, which I wasn't prepared to pay, particularly since much of the work was unskilled manual labour. I got the impression they didn't particularly want the work but thought they'd chance their arm in case I was gullible enough to accept their quote.

I subsequently contacted another supplier on the advice of my brother who works in the housing industry. This supplier was also able to install the full kitchen as well as to the building work. He came out for a look, took away the drawing, but never got back to me. I chased him for the quote, but he never returned my calls.

By this time, winter was upon us and I put it off until spring by which time I'd decided to do much of the manual work myself.

Once it came to the point I needed some expertise, I contacted someone else who was recommended by a neighbour. He said he'd call back after he returned from holiday. Nothing! I called him after I returned from my holiday. I'm still waiting!

Over a week ago, another supplier was recommend to me. He came out, took measurements and promised to get back with a quote. Again, I'm still waiting!

It's over a year since I started this project and I'm still waiting for someone in the building trade to actually do what they say they'll do. Are they all so busy that they can refuse work? I wouldn't mind if they simply got back to me and told me they weren't interested. It's as if they don't want my money!

In the meantime, my daughter and I are living in a building site, with all the kitchen/dining room furniture piled high in the living room. To say I'm not a happy chappie is an understatement!

Beginning Of The End?

2011-08-10T11:17:00.001+01:00

For some time now, I've maintained a minimum of £2K in my Betfair account. I'm been trying to build that up so that I could trade multiple events simultaneously with decent stake sizes.

Having got myself to just under £3K at the turn of the year, I promptly threw away over £800 over a series of mad trades in the cricket and in-running horse markets. Losses that I've struggled to recover from over the subsequent six months. The bank has continued to slowly edge downwards, and recently dropped below the £2K mark.

With this continuing decline, I've decided to change plans and remove £1000 from the account.

Ever since I started with £10 back in Feb 2008, I maintained the rule that I would never again put money in any betting account. Once it has gone, that's it. The end of my trading/gambling career. That rule still applies, so with £930 still in my account, is this the beginning of the end, or the start of a fightback?

Clearly my trading needs to improve. I've made some terrible errors of judgement in recent months and the all important mindset has been all over the place. By lowering the money available to me, I'm hopeful of getting back on track. Only time will tell.

Course Specialists for 2011-07-31

2011-07-31T10:02:00.000+01:00

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

16:05 Chest - Glenridding

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-07-30

2011-07-30T10:07:00.001+01:00

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

17:35 Good - Truism
19:10 Ham - Mandarin Spirit

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-07-29

2011-07-29T10:06:00.001+01:00

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

20:15 Muss - Nufoudh

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-07-27

2011-07-27T10:05:00.001+01:00

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

20:20 Leic - Mata Hari Blue

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-07-26

2011-07-26T10:04:00.001+01:00

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

15:55 Bev - Select Committee
16:50 Good - Truism
18:05 Bev - Rowan Lodge
18:05 Bev - Kheskianto

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-07-24

2011-07-24T10:04:00.001+01:00

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

17:30 Ponte - Mr Wolf

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-07-23

2011-07-23T10:07:00.001+01:00

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

14:15 Newm - Classic Punch
14:30 York - Dazzling Light

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-07-19

2011-07-19T10:03:00.001+01:00

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

20:30 Sthl - Bookiesindex Boy
20:30 Sthl - Spic n Span
20:30 Sthl - Eastern Hills

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.

Course Specialists for 2011-07-18

2011-07-18T10:04:00.001+01:00

Here's the course specialists for today. These are expected to run well and may be used for in-play trading. However, I am looking for them to win. Where there are more than one selection in a race, I'd consider dutching them.

21:00 Bev - Select Committee

Follow my course specialists thread at SoccerLotto.