Betdaq Extra

Ireland's Eye on Sunday

2009-07-12T11:28:24+01:00

Sunday 12 July

IRELAND'S EYE

There is a feast of National Hunt action today with meetings at Perth, Southwell and Stratford to whet our appetite while in Ireland there is flat action on the all weather at Dundalk while the ‘girls’ take centre stage at the Curragh with the Oaks which sees another head to head between the first two home in the English equivalent. With the ground something of a question mark against the top two we will swerve the feature and pin our hopes on a Galway Hurdle winner at 5-6 on the DAQ in a handicap instead while at Southwell a dual point winner can do us a favour at decent odds in a chase at current BETDAQ odds of 17.0.

Another brace of winners on Saturday with Famous Name (2/5) landing prohibitive odds and our saver Three Rocks (8/1) landing the feature at the Curragh while Bipasha (8-7/1) finished runner up in a 6f handicap.

The recent pursuit by Irish trainers of English prize money in the National Hunt sphere shows little signs of abating and the raiding party could be tasting another success in the second part of the 3m 2f novice chase at Southwell this afternoon at 3-20. Northern Ireland handler Ian Duncan has introduced the 6yo Stormfield to the chase scene three weeks ago in a Sedgefield 2m 5f novice – a test which proved inadequate for the son of Glacial Storm – though he was far from disgraced in finishing a modest sixth to subsequent winner Flemross. This fellow scored twice ‘between the flags’ on good and yielding ground at Maralin and Loughanmore and indeed he was not beaten that far by subsequent decent Park winners in Zemsky and According To Dick in that sphere while his third to recent narrow Roscommon handicap hurdle winner Media Queen at Taylorstown on good ground on his last point start reads well in the context of a race of this nature. Additionally he will be suited by a stiffer test of stamina and is suited by good ground and the Brian Harding ridden gelding can account for former English point winner Scholar king and the more experienced Keene Spirit who did finish 2 placings and some nine lengths in front of the selection last time.

The Last Hurrah and Indian Pace finished second and third respectively in last years renewal of the Ladies Derby handicap at the Curragh at 4-15 over 12f with just a short head separating the pair. The first named is now 2lbs worse off and though the 9yo seems flexible regarding ground and is in good form following a hard earned success in a Roscommon 1m 4f hc on his penultimate outing he may have to give way to the John Kiely trained Indian Pace on this occasion. Though the 2008 Galway Hurdle winners course record is just reasonable with just his placing in this event last year to show in 6 attempts the ease in the ground will play to his strengths and he opened his season with a promising fifth to Truckers Delight over 2m miles here a fortnight ago. Katie Walsh should guide the 8yo to his fifth flat success here where the James Leavy trained Sophocles towards the head of the handicap should not be dismissed lightly and rates a small win/place bet as the grey is talented on his day.

Flemross has done us a couple of favours in the past and the former Irish point winner is clearly on the upgrade over fences having made all to land a brace of Hexham 2m 4f novice chases and the 6yo was impressive in carrying a penalty in beating the well backed Armenian Boy three weeks ago. However he does face stiff task in conceding 22lbs and more to his rivals in his first venture in handicap company in the 2m 4 1/2f hc chase at Perth today at 4-20. The other Irish challengers here include the previously useful Huncheon Paddy but he is now 12 and is making his first appearance for nearly a year while the Gordon Elliott trained dual point winner He’s A Hotshot does have prospects on his last effort when finishing a close second over course and distance. However the 7yo has yet to score in 18 attempts under Rules and he may have to play the supporting role here again though he is obviously suited by track/trip and ground. It may pay dividends to side with the former dual point winner Thunder Hawk from the Coltherd yard off 10-4 with Graham Lee doing the steering. A winner of a hunter chase at Hexham last year he boasts placed form over fences over the course and distance and though his fencing is not without blemish and the fitting of first time visors is somewhat disconcerting he is still taken to beat He’s A Hotshot and Flemross.

Ruby Walsh teams up with one of his main retainers Paul Nicholls at Stratford today and the dynamic duo could ‘hit the bullseye’ with the somewhat disappointing Now Listen To Me on his chase debut in the extended 2m 5f novice at 4-40. A lightly raced 6yo he certainly is not one of the stable stars but he did show some ability when just losing out in a close finish in a Wincanton 2m 5f novice hurdle on penultimate start before seemingly failing to stay three miles on final outing when fancied ‘at the books’. Despite the claims of the Nicholls runner the vote here goes to the O’Neill 7yo Donaldson who created a good impression on his chase debut at Towcester over two and a half miles has not had that much fortune in two subsequent starts but the German bred looked to be going well when departing four from home over this course (2m 4f) on penultimate start and Noel Fehily can get him back to winning ways here where Listen To Me and the front running Gleann An Saggart whose only visit here saw him score over course and distance look the main dangers.

Johnjo O’Neill and Tony McCoy are ‘making hay’ at present and there are sound reasons that the combination will be on the mark today at Southwell in the 2m 5 1/2f handicap hurdle at 5-00 with the 9yo Englishtown. A dual winner on the flat in Ireland for John Oxx he has been mixing hurdling and chasing to good effect for his present yard, landing two chases and three hurdles from 2m 1f to 3m 1f and though he has been raised 7lbs for a snug win in a 3m Worcester handicap hurdle last time that should not stop him here. In a tight handicap cases can be made for the Irish challenger Tubber Gael Holly on her return to hurdles following her recent Stratford chase success and the somewhat disappointing King Ar Aghaidh. Other dangers include the improving dual hurdle winner Dais Return on his handicap debut and top weight Come Out Firing who is having a fine season though the handicapper may just have got the ‘whip hand’ at this stage.

Colin McBratney will have high hopes of landing the finale at Perth at 5-20 – a 2m 1/2f bumper with the once raced Bachelor Lad. This Bach 5yo was quietly fancied on his debut in a similar competitive Down Royal and he made no mistake in making all and showing fine battling qualities to account for the 4yo Benefit Evening by half a length with the favourite Sutherland Star four lengths back in third. The form of that contest was boosted by an easy win for the last named at Bellewstown recently and the Denis O’Regan ridden gelding should follow here under his 7lb penalty where the Lucinda Russell trained and once raced Battle Group could show the necessary improvement to step up on his fourth placing (ran green) at Uttoxeter a month ago in a similar contest.

Dundalk on the all weather houses an interesting 2m 1f handicap on its last last race of the day at 5-55 for qualified rider where the Willie/Patrick Mullins combination will be expected to follow up on a Navan 1m 5f apprentice handicap success with the versatile Deutchland. The form of that contest has been boosted by the subsequent success of Rajik (trained by Charlie Swan) but the winner did go up 7lbs nevertheless. Though the likely favourite should go close here there looks to be value in siding with another versatile sort in Oodachee off a low weight with a capable 5lb claimer on board. A four time winner on the flat (all over 2 miles) he gets 22lbs from the ‘jolly’ and he may have needed the outing when finishing down the field at Gowran three weeks ago and he is ideally suited by a sound surface and with stable in form he is taken to account for the market leader and the consistent all weather performer Azabu Juban.

ADVICE
5pt win (nap) STORMFIELD 3-20 Southwell
1pt win (saver) SCHOLAR KING 3-20 Southwell
4pt win INDIAN PACE 4-15 Curragh
1pt win/place SOPHOCLES 4-15 Curragh
3pt win THUNDER HAWK 4-20 Perth
1pt (saver) HE’S A HOTSHOT 4-20 Perth
3pt win DONALDSON 4-40 Stratford
2pt win (saver) NOW LISTEN TO ME 4-40 Stratford
5pt win BACHELOR LAD 5-20 Perth
4pt win ENGLISHTOWN 5-00 Southwell
3pt win (saver) KING AR AGHAIDH 5-00 Southwell
4pt win OODACHEE 5-55 Dundalk
lay to win 6pts DEUTCHLAND 5-55 Dundalk
BETDAQ MULTIBET 1pt 3 by 1 doubles/reble STORMFIELD, BACKSTAGE and BACHELOR LAD

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Saturday's Return was: PROFIT 3 points

DAQMAN on SUNDAY

2009-07-12T11:24:33+01:00


Sunday 12 July DAQMAN 192 POINTS PROFIT IN 18 DAYS: Daqman won money yet again yesterday - for the 13th time in 18 days, in fact - and relentlessly creeps closer to 200 points profit. DOUBLE WHAMMY: Soul Heaven (won 4-1) was a surprisingly good price but his best race was the double whammy when he laid Cesare (unplaced 9-4) and backed Aqlaam (won 15-8). Cesare took his lays to 43 successful out of 50. 13 LAYS IN A ROW: But his brutal run against the favourites ended on 13 when Borderlescott shrugged off some scrimmaging on the rails at Chester. So his record still stands at 16. There’s no beauty in blinkers. They may work for John Oxx’s filly in the Irish Oaks at The Curragh today but, if she wins, I’m happy to watch her win. Oxx is quite open in the trade Press this morning: Beauty O’Gwaun does so little at home, he really doesn’t know whether she’s Group-1 and, with the blinkers, he’s obviously squeezing the last possible drop of petrol into the tank. They are no longer regarded as the ‘rogue’s badge’ they used to be: some trainers – Cole and Stoute are in my files for this ability – know how and when to use the blinds judiciously. But I won’t have a Classic winner in them. Beauty O’Gwaun’s St-Leger-winning brother Millenary wore them but not in the Leger; in fact, contrary to what you may have read, they were not applied until the age of six when they sharpened him up to win the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes at the July meeting of almost exactly six years ago. Midday is also discarded: unlucky she may have been, but she had her chance to beat Sariska on top of the ground - she’s bred for a sound surface and both her wins have been on good to firm – and I can’t see how she, or Oh Goodness Me (7th), can turn the Epsom form around against a Pivotal filly on soft. The racing Press is saying that Midday is the more progressive but she’s had seven races to Sariska’s four. Given the conditions, I’m bound to scan the card for Selkirks and Sadlers Wells, of which there are four: Belle Chose is a handicapper; Chirkova has already failed at Listed and Group-3, and is still a maiden; though the choice of Johnny Murtagh, Roman Empress did nothing for me in the Pretty Polly and was earlier beaten by the last of this quartet, Roses For The Lady, at Leopardstown. If Roses For The Lady takes after her family, she has her conditions for the first time today: though she’s won a nothing race on top of the ground, she didn’t much like the firmish terrain or the Chester turns in the Cheshire Oaks but we have to make more excuses if we are to gloss over her defeat by Grace O’Malley at Cork. Grace O’Malley, who also beat Roses For The Lady last backend, acts on any going, and is unbeaten if you take out a first run back when she was slowly away. In the twin tables that make for untouchables - ‘done nothing wrong’, and ‘lightly raced and on the upgrade’ – Sariska, Grace O’Malley and Beauty O’Gwaun stand apart; at 16.5 on Betdaq this morning, Grace O’Malley stands alone for value. She may be Sariska’s main danger. The blinds also go on King Ledley in the Anglesey (3.05); he is the form horse on his third in the Classic-pointer Railway Stakes, and he has six lengths in hand on Eireannach and a stone on Diamondgeezer Luke unless they have improved that much since the Spring. But King Ledley looks there to be shot at by the winning Railway Stakes connections – Ballydoyle, of course – particularly since he looks pretty well exposed, after being on the go since 22nd March, where some of the others have only just joined in. I can’t have the filly (Walk On Bye) and, though it’s no reason to reject the colt, I haven’t had a nod or a wink for so-named En Un Clin D’Oeil. I’m left with Aidan. He’s not been the ideal companion for this race since 2005 but Beethoven’s sire, the Eclipse winner Oratorio, won this the year before that and, with Sadlers Wells on the dam’s side, Beethoven should relish this far more than a pressured ride on the fast ground at Royal Ascot. It’s a mundane Sunday in England (no Flat, just a mediocre AW card), rescued only by the Stratford Summer Cup (3.30) and Silver Salver (4.05). First-time blinkers (on Nudge And Nurdle, 3.30) haven’t helped recent ‘Twiston’ runners (0 from 14), and this stayer could do with going round twice. Gaelic Flight has to face some young improvers and the handicapper has lumped the weight on the Ruby-Walsh-ridden raider, Jubilant Note. Lord Ryeford (26lb higher than last win), Mango Catcher (up 11lb) and Tom’s Toybox (9lb) are also penalised but Dishdasha has shed a pound on May running here, despite romping home by 12 lengths at Perth last time. He’s only seven and has seldom run a bad race (six out of seven placed last term). Mibleu is dangerous if the rain stays away but the other one I like is Master Nimbus; his form shows as 343-1 but, in fact, he’s on a four-timer after one chase win and two on the Flat. Note that Tony McCoy takes in one ride, Barizan (2.00), then heads for Southwell for Captain Crackers (4.30) and Englishtown (5.00).

TODAY'S BETS
BET 6pts win BEETHOVEN (3.05 The Curragh) BET 1pt win on each DISHDASHA and MASTER NIMBUS (3.30 Stratford). BET 6pts win SARISKA, and 1pt win and place GRACE O’MALLEY (3.40 The Curragh) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Saturday's Return was: PROFIT 16.75 points

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DAQMAN on Saturday

2009-07-11T11:45:40+01:00


Saturday 11 July DAQMAN 21 POINTS UP AT JULY MEETING: Daqman edged a profit yesterday with another winning lay and a first-race payout from Brief Encounter (won 5-1) to take his winnings to more than 21 points for the three days of the July Meeting, his 14-day winning run showing 175 points on the scoreboard. 11-1 WINNERS: It was a tough week of stonewalling since his big hits, 11-1 Total Gallery on Wednesday and another 11-1 scorer (Dickie Le Davoir) earlier in the week. He’s had 70 winning bets in the last 27 days. 12 LAYS ON THE TROT: Daqman is now 12 not out with his lays, all morning favourites, punters getting desperately close to bowling him out via Orpen Grey on Thursday and Captain Brilliance yesterday, but no prizes for second. His record is 16 in a row. I always treat big-field handicaps like Russian dolls: inside every one of them is another smaller handicap. Solve them in turn and you have your short-list. The obvious first strategy with the John Smith’s Cup is to unravel the mini-handicap of the lowest 10 in the draw, responsible for most of the winners – seven –in the last decade. I’m dropping three of them because they are too old: not old enough to need Tanya Stevenson’s hair-dye but, at six and over, they don’t win this, according to the stats. Richard Fahey has two of the remaining seven. Well, he would, wouldn’t he: when a trainer is on a roll, luck seems to lay a magic carpet for him. One of them, Unbreak My Heart, is a key to collateral form: on the face of it, there’s precious little daylight between the gelding and Ladies Best (Epsom form) and, therefore, Albaquaa (Pontefract), and among ‘Heart’ and the Redcar 1-2-3, Kingdom of Fife, Nanton and Re Barolo. In other words, the handicapper has had his say. But with two of those with the draw advantage, he has not had his say: he can’t assess Riggins or Ra Junior for this 10 furlongs because they are entirely unexposed at the trip. Strangely, they top and tail the Betdaq market, as I write: for Riggins to be ahead of Kingdom of Fife in the market could be significant; for Ra Junior to be the 48.0 rank outsider seems absurd. Riggins is obviously a glass horse, very lightly raced and ‘got up’ for a touch when he’s sound: that he steps up from a mile might be beneficial (he’s from a middle-distance family) but trainer Luca Cumani feels this is experimental and, though he’s best of the five-year-old group, it’s a late stage in any Flat career, however light, to be trying new trips. Ra Junior is with a stable emerging from a sickening start to the year, with places in Classics where success would have had the name of Meehan towering over the Oxxs and O’Brien’s who stole his thunder. If you agree that Meehan had the right ammunition, rarely tilting at windmills like, say, the arch Don Quixote, Clive Brittain, then you have to accept that his aiming Ra Junior at a Group-2 start to his season suggests that he’s proverbially ‘chucked in’ here off 8st. 6lb. There’s an apprentice allowance on top, and three-year-olds have a good record in the race: they won it in 2000 and 2001. Of the other Russian dolls – groups within the race – Moonquake looks best of the four-year-olds on his win here in May but tactics were easy for Frankie Dettori then from stall five: he’ll have to get over from stall 22 this time, if he is to tuck in on the rail. Laterly will string the field out and help the hold-up horses. Will he last out into a place or get swamped at the finish? Local stable. Had a run within seven days. Joint top of the Racing Post ratings with Riggins and Sweet Lightning. Yet 35.0 on the Daq. I can see Aqlaam (2.50 Ascot) improving past Cesare in the Summer Mile after a fine run in the Queen Anne when, according to his trainer, he would be ‘better later on.’ In fact, I’m going to 'get' Cesare: he did a lot of hard work at Ascot; he’s eight now and will find it hard to put two races together; apart from Aqlaam, he has another improver to beat, Imbongi, reckoned ‘only a length or so behind’ last year’s winner of this, Archipenko (Cesare second), according to the trainer in the trade Press today. There’s a charge for the City Wall Stakes at Chester and I think the light brigade can win it: the fast-out flying style of Rievaulx World (3.30) – that’s “rivers world” if you’re from the North – is well suited to this track and 10.5 on Betdaq this morning was each-way value. I’m taking on Borderlescott, whose big wins have come on straight tracks, like York, Goodwood and Newmarket. He’s got a good draw here and it will be a tight finish but we’ve got the kitty from 12 lays on the trot for gambles today against the old boys, Borderlescott and Cesare.

TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win and place INVISIBLE MAN (1.50 Ascot) BET 1pt win and place LANG SHINING (2.35 York) WIN-40 JACKPOT BETS: 4pts win and 2pts place MOONQUAKE, 1pt win and place on each LATERLY and RA JUNIOR (3.10 York). LAY to win 10pts CESARE and BET 6pts win AQLAAM (2.50 Ascot) BET 6pts win SOUL HEAVEN (3.25 Ascot) LAY to win 10pts BORDERLESCOTT and BET 3pts win and place RIEVAULX WORLD (3.30 Chester) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Friday's Return was: PROFIT 3.5 points

	Try a BETDAQ Multiple today and enjoy better value odds. New to Multiples? Click to Learn More

Ireland's Eye on Saturday

2009-07-11T11:18:38+01:00

Saturday 11 July

IRELAND'S EYE

Today is the start of the two day Oaks meeting at the Curragh and the Group 3’s Minstrel and International Stakes sees an English challenger in each but with the ground likely to prove on the easy side there chances could be compromised. The feature at Ascot can go to a course specialist while in Ireland a decent priced older horse can take one of the handicaps.

Three good priced winners yesterday swelled the coffers as the EYE was on the mark with his nap Rockadare at 7/1 in a maiden hurdle at Cork while Captain Henry (4-7/2) and Belle’s Ridge (9/4) both landed flat handicaps at Gowran. Additionally saver Winds Of War (3-11/4) and Essex (3-5/2) also finished in the frame while our sole ‘lay’ of the day Quinmaster (6/1) was out of the money in the opener at Cork.

Todays renewal of the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot at 2-50 does not look the strongest and though the course specialist Cesare is not exactly in the ‘first flush of youth’ the James Fanshawe trained 8yo can land this prize for the second time and add to his 2007 success. Though he failed to justify favouritism when finishing third in last year renewal behind Archipenko he made a pleasing seasonal debut when finishing second (but no match) for the useful Paco Boy in the Queen Anne Stakes here at the Royal meeting nearly a month ago. He is taken to confirm form with the third there the unexposed Aqlaam from the Haggas yard while the Mike De Kock trained Imbongi bids to give his South African trainer back to back successes in the contest following the victory of Archipenko last year. The best saver could be in siding with Ray Beckett’s Without A Prayer who landed a Listed Windsor contest in fine style over a similar trip a fortnight ago and there could be more to come from the Richard Kingscote ridden 4yo.

A 6f handicap at 3-30 at the Curragh not surprisingly poses a teaser with 23 runners forecast to face the starter. As always there can be value in such contests (if the price is right) and we will side with the Adrian McGuinness 8yo Parc Aux Boules who has scored over the trip and has shown decent form at this venue and finished a fair third over 5f her on soft over a fortnight ago. Six furlongs and a decent draw on easy ground could see the dual winner bag this prize under promising 7lb claimer Gary Carroll. Dangers abound and one of the least exposed in the field is the 4yo Jim Bolger filly Bipasha off a low weight under 4lb claimer Danny Mullins. The maiden was just beaten over this trip at Naas in a decent time last time on good to yielding and rates a danger if the ground does not deteriorate appreciably. The ex Clive Brittain trained Nice Dream made all to make a winning Irish debut at Down royal over 7f recently and is another to consider with James Ryan’s Qeyaada off a high weight but the 4yo filly boasts decent course form and has the assistance of 7lb claimer Joseph O’Brien to partly offset the 12lb rise she received for her ready Naas win on admittedly faster ground.

The Keenland Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh today at 4-00 looks set to be a fascinating contest and there can be cases made for most of the 9 strong field in this 7f Group 3 race.
With the first three home in last years renewal looking set to go head to head again there should not be much between last years victor and course specialist Jumbajukiba, Al Qasi and Georgebernardshaw again this time around. Jessica Harringtons Jumbajukiba front running 6yo needs a good ‘cut’ in the ground to be seen to best effect but he is a five time winner around here and there now looks every chance that he will have his favoured surface as he holds prospects on the strength of his recent second placings over 6f and a mile here in the Greenland Stakes and a Listed contest. Al Qasi was well supported in this race last year and though the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained 6yo is a course winner (6f Group 3 in 2007) he may not reverse form with last years winner who lost ground at the start and the suspicion is that this trip could just stretch his reserves as he has not scored over 7f+ in 11 tries. Dermot Welds mare Mad About Ya comes out best on official ratings and the 4yo daughter of Indian Ridge landed the Group 3 Gladness Stakes in April from one of todays rivals Dohasa with Jumbajukiba and Georgebernardshaw behind. Although she failed to justify favouritism when second in the Athasi Stakes on heavy ground in the meanwhile she holds a favourites chance here nevertheless. Ger Lyons Dohasa is another not to have won over this trip but the 4yo could be inconvencied by the forecast rain but has prospects as he finished a close third in a valuable Nad Al Sheba over 6 ½ furlongs earlier this year and in addition to his second to Mad About Ya in the Gladness he only just failed to Duff in the Ballychorus Stakes at Leopardstown on latest over this distance. Georgebernardshaw has not delivered on his earlier promise and looks held by some of the principals here. The latter Ballychorus Stakes could hold the key to the outcome of this contest as the well supported but somewhat luckless Three Rocks was staying on again late in proceedings having lost his pitch when finishing about 2 ½ lengths by Dohasa. However with the ground riding in his favour course specialist Jumbajujukiba gets the vote ahead of Three Rocks and Dohasa.

Dermot Weld holds the key to the Keeneland International Stakes over 9f with his recent course winner Famous Name at 4-30. The 4yo is a decent tool at his best and went down narrowly in the French Derby last year before gaining some consolation in landing a brace of Listed contests at Leoparstown and most recently here in the Celebration Stakes over a mile in easy fashion from Jumbajukiba. He is likely to get some ‘juice’ in the ground he could be hard to beat but he is not one to take a short price about and he faces a dangerous rival here in the shape of the Waler Swinburn trained Staying On if the ground remains on the good side. A four time winner up to a mile the Alan Kirby ridden 4yo ran arguably his finest race when just failing by a short head to repel the subsequent Princess Of Wales winner Doctor Fremantle over 10f in the Group 3 Huxley Stakes at Chester and subsequently was far from disgraced when beaten just over two lengths in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown over a similar trip. Nevertheless he probably will play ‘second fiddle’ to the short priced favourite if the forecast rain arrives.

ADVICE
3pt win CESARE 2-50 Ascot
2pt win (saver) WITHOUT A PRAYER 2-50 Ascot
3pt win PARC AUX BOULES 3-30 Curragh
1pt win (savers) BIPASHA and QEYAADA 3-30 Curragh
5pt win (nap) JUMBAJUKIBA 4-00 Curragh
2pt win (saver) THREE ROCKS 4-00 Curragh
5pt win FAMOUS NAME 4-30 Curragh

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Friday's Return was: PROFIT 40.5 points

Ed Chamberlin's Weekend Preview

2009-07-11T10:39:19+01:00

Saturday 10 July

Join Sky Sports Pundit ED CHAMBERLIN in his regular Weekend Sports Preview below. Simply press play below to tune into Ed's exclusive DAQCAST - covering a whole host of weekend betting opportunities on the DAQ starting with the Ashes, moving on to the Tour De France plus a word on the weekend's other major events.

ED CHAMBERLIN'S WEEKEND BETTING PREVIEW

DAQMAN on Friday

2009-07-10T12:12:17+01:00


Friday 10 July DAQMAN NOW IT’S 11 IN A ROW: Daqman dispatched another morning favourite yesterday to bring his current run to 11 in a row, 57 out of the last 66 for an 86% strike rate. The lay, Orpen Grey, was second. WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: Yesterday was tricky but big fields and high-odds trades are back today, prompting Daqman to attempt a jackpot bet to win 50 points in the Bunbury Cup. BIG-RACE BISMARCK: Again Daqman puts his feared Bismarck on one of the big-race favourites. Does Scenic Blast have a booster in that five-furlong rocket? He steps up a furlong from the King Stand Stakes and it’s a long, long way up that Newmarket straight. To take him on in the July Cup, you need a horse that can lie up close enough - but not too close as to burn out in the slipstream – and have the extra gear and stamina to deliver a challenge. There’s only one, as far as I can see. 1.30 Newmarket (Premier Handicap): Crackdown’s form when making all at Ripon was franked by the runner-up, Firebet, yesterday and he almost made it again from the front against older horses at Sandown. But that’s in keeping with the current Mark Johnston form in the big handicaps right now: he’s just missing strike, and I think something will come along and catch him again today. Lightly-raced Sovereign Remedy can beat Mohtashem for the third time but Brief Encounter shouldn’t be written off, having started favourite for the Brittannia; I could dutch them this morning at 6.4 and 7.4 in the stakes ratio of roughly 3.5:3 to win 15 points whichever one wins. 2.00 Newmarket (Superlative Stakes): Emperor Claudius could turn around Chesham form with Big Audio, because he didn’t get a clear run early on that day. Equally, Big Audio was green and came off a line near the finish, or might have won further. I certainly can’t take 8-5 ‘Claudius’ this morning when there are six twice-raced potential improvers against him. Big Audio’s stablemate Lucky General should make sure they get a move on and, with eight runners here, I’m keen to get one placed at a decent trade: Lord Zenith will pay better than evens as insurance for a tasty 7.2 the win, as I write, and I like the families his breeding represents; there’s speed and stamina and high class all the way down the lines. 2.35 Newmarket (Bunbury Cup): Seven furlongs is a specialist trip so I’m ruling out those who’ve already tried and failed, such as Beaver Patrol (seven 6f wins) and Benandonner (three at 1m) and I don’t think the ground is soft enough for Headford View (not travelled over well) or Redford. Extremes of the draw (2 to 6 and 14 or higher) usually win this but they were finishing down the middle in the big fields on opening day: middle-to-high numbers won the first race and, immediately afterwards, stall 11 completed a double (stall 8 was second) in the 20-runner 6f handicap. The field for the Bunbury Cup is the same size and you’d expect the jockeys to follow that first-day lead: Jimmy Fortune is in a good position to choose his path on Racer Forever (14), who was a close fifth in stall 30 when the result by draw of the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot was 4, 2, 10, 7; he won the far-side group and had Mister Hardy and Dhaular Dhar (stall 20) well back. Plum Pudding should take the low numbers along, and – as ever – he’ll very nearly stay in front, and could run the race out of inexperienced Captain Brilliance (stall 1); Jeremy Noseda won the Hunt Cup with a similar type, Forgotten Voice, but it would be unheard of for a stable to pull off the same trick again within the month. Giganticus has won this race before but scored recently and doesn’t usually run two races alike: Signor Peltro should run him close on Rowley Mile form. But Signor Peltro is worse off at the weights despite being behind Dhaular Dhar in the Victoria Cup, and Dhaular Dhar is also better off with Laa Rayb and Giganticus whom he divided at Ascot when failing to get a clear run in a big handicap there a year ago. Older horses have by far the best record in this, and I’m happy with Betdaq trades of 15.5 Racer Forever and 34.0 Dhaular Dhar for a tilt at my win-100 jackpot bet, splitting the stakes. 3.10 Newmarket (July Cup): Seven of the last 10 July Cup winners came from the six highest stalls, and we know from the opening day that a bit of extra rocket fuel will be needed for Scenic Blast to take them along from stall two. Art Connoisseur is on that side and he landed the Golden Jubilee in fine style (J J The Jet Plane 4th and badly-drawn Kings Apostle 10th), though the draw was particularly kind to him then and the runner-up, Cannonball, was much further behind Scenic Blast and Fleeting Spirit in the Kings Stand. But they don’t come on and win this from the Kings Stand: only the Golden Jubilee one-two has finished one or two in today’s race. African Rose is the nearest thing to champion Marchand d’Or in France; she gets further but it’s debatable whether there is enough juice in the ground for her and she was put in her place by Paco Boy at Longchamp (7f) on Arc day. Richard Hannon was determined to make a miler out of Paco Boy and whether that’s blunted his speed for this remains to be seen; over further, he has shown a high cruising speed and has thrived off a positive pace. The one draw will allow him to settle just off the lead, with the rails to help later on; there’ll surely be fresh turf there by that time. He’s a double-your-money place banker on Betdaq to get in the first three. His Queen Anne win was right out of the top drawer, on a par or even better than his defeat of 1,000 Guineas winner, Natagora, last autumn. Yesterday the ground was perfect for him: check out the results; every race was run slower than average. There’s been a heavy dew and it’s no scorcher this morning so it won’t have dried out that much.

TODAY'S BETS
DUTCH 3.5pts win BRIEF ENCOUNTER and 3pts win SOVEREIGN REMEDY (1.30 Newmarket) BET 2pts win and place LORD ZENITH (2.00 Newmarket) LAY to win 10pts CAPTAIN BRILLIANCE; plus WIN-50 JACKPOT BETS 3.5pts win and 1pt place RACER FOREVER, and 1.5pts win and 1pt place DHAULAR DHAR (2.35 Newmarket). PLACE BANKER: 2pts win and 8pts place PACO BOY (3.10 Newmarket) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Thursday's Return was: LOSS 4.58 points

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Ireland's Eye on Friday

2009-07-10T11:30:26+01:00

Friday 10 July

IRELAND'S EYE

Newmarket this afternoon and two Irish meetings at Gowran and Cork will be our main ‘ports of call’ today where Aidan O’Briens runner may have to settle for a supporting role again at the former venue in a Group contest while there can be success for an unexposed 5yo in a three mile maiden hurdle at Cork

Decent Fella (4/1) and Boulay (9/4-2/1) – two of our savers kept our run of winners going yesterday on a day where there was some disappointment when our nap Noble Gallileo (13/8- morn-4/6) could only finish third and Kalacan (3-11/4) did not get the best of runs when filling the same berth whilst at Newmarket Alwaary (12/1) met with interference in finishing a close third (promoted to second) in the days feature.

A short head separated Big Audio (6.2 on the DAQ) and Emperor Claudius (2.6 on the DAQ) in the Chesham Stakes over 7f at Royal Ascot and there may not be much between the Richard Hannon and Aidan O’Brien pair in the Group 2 Meydan Superlative Stakes at Newmarket over the same trip at 2-00 this afternoon in spite of the difference in the forecast odds. O’Briens charge was well supported on that occasion and the Fairyhouse 6f scorer from subsequent winner Bankrobber did not have that much luck in running at the Royal meeting but he may again struggle to turn the tables on Hannon’s charge whose chances cannot be taken lightly despite starting at generous odds on his first start at the distance and the ease in the ground should be in his favour to boot. There is a good chance that Hannon who boasts a decent record in this race could have another strong challenger in the Ryan Moore ridden Windsor 6f winner Lucky General who created a fine impression when making all to win by a wide margin on his second start.

Essex has not tasted success for a year but the 2m 4f hurdle at Cork this evening at 7-20 offers Michael O’Briens 9yo an ideal opportunity to land his seventh win over timber. A former winner of the Pierce Hurdle and the Grade 3 Totesport Trophy during 2005 he returned from over a year and a half earlier this year and showed that he retains most of his former ability with decent placed efforts, including a fair third to the useful Serpentaria (rec 11lbs) over course and distance in a hurdle and two fourth placing behind the useful mare Sesenta in a Punchestown hurdle over the same trip and a flat handicap over 10f. Though he was somewhat disappointing on his most recent effort when lumping top weight against a competitive field at Bellewstown over 2m 4f he gets into this hurdle at level weights with most of his field and indeed gets 7lbs from the obvious danger Ebaziyan, the 2007 Supreme Novice hurdle winner who has recently had an unsuccessful stint over fences and will be suited by the better ground here. The selection could have most to fear from Washington Lad whose last win over fences was when beating the top class mare Asian Maze in a Group 3 at Fairyhouse in 2005 and the 9yo has subsequently landed three chases.

Edward Lynam’s 3yo Captain Henry looks to be on the upgrade and he can follow up his narrow success in a Bellewstown maiden over a similar trip to this evenings extended 9f handicap for 3yo’s at Gowran at 8-10. That win was achieved on good to firm but his previous form on easier ground would indicate that he could be suited by an ease and with the ground forecast as yielding to soft there is a good chance that he could follow up here under Irish champion flat rider Pat Smullen off a mark on the evidence of his length second on this track in a 7f contest on penultimate outing. He could have most to fear from the bottom weight Beat The Boss whose best effort to date were when the Joanna Morgan trained gelding finished fair fourths on soft ground at Navan and Leopardstown handicaps over a mile and 7f respectively and he could be suited by the step up in distance here under Willie Supple.

At Gowran this evening the top prize goes to the winner of the 1m 1 1/2f hc at 7-40 and here there looks a good chance that the Tim Doyle trained Belle’s Ridge can take the prize home. A two time winner over a similar distance at Ballinrobe and Leopardstown on good and yielding last year the 5yo made a satisfactory seasonal debut when not beaten that far in fifth in a competitive Curragh handicap and he boasts a couple of narrow defeats at this venue – the last one when just losing out to Rockazar (rec 13lbs and a decent third at Leopardstown last night) over course and distance last September. There are two course specialists in the line up and these include Dane Blue (4 wins from 12) and Toufan Express (2 wins from 4) who sports blinkers for the first time. The first named could pose the biggest danger to Tim Doyles on a return to his favourite track having strutted his stuff in stronger Listed and Group company of late with the ease in the ground also looking a positive for the Sean Treacy 7yo mare.

The 3m maiden hurdle at Cork this evening (8-25) can go to the Conor O’Dwyer trained 5yo Rockadare 9.6 on the DAQ as we write. An unexposed type the son of Broadway Flyer showed up well in a few bumpers, notably when finishing a fair sixth to New Phase in a decent Punchestown event on fast ground and in filling the same position on softer ground over 2m 3f at this track before attracting market support on second start over jumps at Limerick over this trip where he was still in the mix when exiting three from home behind Captain Nash. Suited by good or better ground and with 3lb claimer Nicky O’ Shea on board he can succeed here at the expense of the ‘Mouse’ Morris trained Winds Of War who has shown promise in taking a fair fourth in a good ground bumper and a couple of maiden hurdles over 2m 4f and three miles. Former pointer Pavo who indicated ability ‘between the flags’ and ability in taking third in a Clonmel maiden hurdle over two miles and four last time in addition to likely favourite Buck Mulligan representing father/son combination of Ted and Ruby Walsh who could do better now he is stepped up in trip having failed to land a ‘touch’ in taking fourth in a Sligo 2m maiden hurdle last time. Three time point winner Mr Dominator is suited by a sound surface but was disappointing at Wexford last time while Paul Cashmans point winning mare Rebel Dream who accounted for subsequent three time Park winner Square Sphere has been showing some fair form in hurdles to date. An interesting win/place alternative is John Queallys Augosto who displayed ability on his point debut at Dungarvan (fell at last when destined for third) and there was the hint of better to come from his recent effort in a Punchestown bumper.

ADVICE
4pt win BIG AUDIO 2-00 Newmarket
1pt win (savers) EMPEROR CLAUDIUS and LUCKY GENERAL 2-00 Newmarket
lay to win 6pts QUINMASTER 5-45 Cork
4pts win ESSEX 7-20 Cork
2pt win (saver) WASHINGTON LAD 7-20 Cork
4pt win BELLE’S RIDGE 7-40 Gowran
2pt win (saver) DANE BLUE 7-40 Gowran
3pt win CAPTAIN HENRY 8-10 Gowran
2pt win (saver) BEAT THE BOSS 8-10 Gowran
5pt win (nap) ROCKADARE 8-25 Cork
2pt win (saver) WINDS OF WAR 1pt win/place AUGUSTO 8-25 Cork

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Thursday's Return was: LOSS 9 points

DAQMAN on Thursday

2009-07-09T12:05:16+01:00


Thursday 9 July DAQMAN 18.5 BETDAQ VALUE: Quote from Daqman’s column on the second winner of the opening day at Newmarket yesterday: ‘18.5 about a Johnny Murtagh spare ride was good value.’ TWO 11-1 WINNERS: The Murtagh horse was Total Gallery (won 11-1 SP), giving Daqman his second 11-1 winner in two days, following Dickie Le Davoir on Monday. 176 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman also gave Misheer (won 7-2) and Pumpkin (won 13-8) for his 10th day in profit out of 12, netting more than 20 points on the day, and taking his total haul in the 12 days to 176 points or £1,760 to £10 units at recommended stakes. The card at Newmarket today is a jungle of ungenerous form. I may have to ape Mark Johnston, taking Tarzan down at Epsom tonight to get my money back. 1.30 Newmarket (Bahrain Trophy): The trickiest race at the meeting so far (until the next three); it’s a list of excuses: Above Average ‘got no run at Ascot’; Dhushan ‘ran too freely’; Kite Wood was ‘a little disappointing’ but is dropped in class. So they tell the Racing Post. If it’s tactical, anything can happen; but, if Dhushan, say, goes off in front and there is a decent pace, Tactic could be the one to take over around two or three out and test the others for stamina. That would be my jockey’s orders since, with Dhushan behind him for the second time this season, Tactic might have won the Queens Vase (2m) over a furlong or two shorter and the Sadlers Wells colt will prefer the easier ground today. The stable had a winner on the opening day. 2.00 Newmarket (July Stakes): Tom Dascombe, who scored in this last year, has Orpen Grey strongly fancied after his runaway win in the same prep race at Salisbury but the placed horses that day were only class-5 winners and, before that, the placed horses for his Warwick success were class-5 losers! Red Jazz has had his form franked by Iver Bridge Lad (beat Angel’s Pursuit and Noble Greek) and Arcano his by Showcasing and two others behind him at Newbury. Reignier, whose form was let down by Capercaille yesterday, holds Tawaabb but is unlikely to confirm Ascot Norfolk Stakes placings with the running on and hampered Nosedive. I think the morning joint-favourite Orpen Grey is flattered by his wide-margin win and by his following in the footsteps of last year’s winner; I have a squad of Group-2 experience to take him on. It’s a tough call between Arcano, Nosedive and Red Jazz but Nosedive is a nice each-way price at 6.0 as I write, was running on in the traditional pointer for this, the Norfolk, as if an extra furlong were needed, and has Ryan Moore in the saddle with a 13 from 22 strike rate for the yard. 2.35 Newmarket (Heritage Handicap): the first two were tough but this one is frozen toffee: get your teeth into that! We can but surmise as follows: it’s probably not rained enough for the dogged Aqwaal; Barwell Bridge, Union Island and Changing The Guard are all of a heap, close together, exposed to the handicapper; Lasso The Moon has run well with some of them but is still a maiden. Emirates Roadshow ran a cracker in the Britannia but Mark Johnston, whose Roman Republic he beat that day, throws two more at him here, both front-runners, Takaatuf and Eastern Aria. My first thought was to forget them all and go for the unexposed Stoute runner, Class Is Class, but – having said that this race is tough as toffee to false teeth – how can I accept 3-1 against such a field? In the end I chose one on potential: it looks as though this one needs this trip; it looks as though he’s bred to do a lot better when the trainer gets it right; he looks unlucky so far, in fact. Name of Roman Republic. Nice 9.2 on the Daq this morning. 3.10 Newmarket (Princess Of Wales’s Stakes): Rainbow View, says one commentator, was seemingly further proof yesterday that the current Classic generation is behind their elders; alternatively, yesterday we had to make a third consecutive excuse for the filly, so no such proof there, then. The same trainer has the only three-year-old in this race, Alwaary. So how wary are we? Well, I’m afraid we’re left holding a stick of rhubarb, since the stable has another runner in the race, Duncan, as if it, too, can’t decide the relative merits of the two generations. That’s not forgetting that the same trainer, J Gosden no less, has already beaten Campanologist, Enroller and Doctor Fremantle with Bronze Cannon. From where I am – not knowing the actual going at the ‘off’ – it’s not soft enough for Enroller, nor fast enough for Campanologist and Doctor Fremantle. I’ll have to choose between the generations and give it to the progressive Duncan.

TODAY'S BETS
BET 2pts win and place TACTIC, and 2pts win (saver) KITE WOOD (1.30 Newmarket) LAY to win 10pts ORPEN GREY, and BET 2pts win and place NOSEDIVE (2.00 Newmarket) BET 2pts win and place ROMAN REPUBLIC (2.35 Newmarket). BET 4pts win DUNCAN (3.10 Newmarket) BANKER 10pts win TARZAN (8.30 Epsom) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Wednesday's Return was: PROFIT 23.50 points

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Ireland's Eye on Thursday

2009-07-09T11:56:44+01:00

Thursday 9 July

IRELAND'S EYE

It is Day 2 of the Newmarket July meeting and we have high hopes of adding to our success from yesterday with a long priced selection in the feature event while at Leopardstown tonight Ger Lyons can register success in one of the earlier handicaps.

Misheer (7/2) ‘brought home the bacon’ yesterday when landing the Cherry Hinton and we also registered our third successful lay from four this month with the defeat of Habaayib (9/4) in the same contest. In addition we had two further successes when our savers Danetime Panther (5-3/1) and Billie Magern (9/4) delivered while our selection Commons glory (11-10/1) ran well in third in the opener at Worcester. Whilst our nap Blue Ridge Lane (15/8-6/4) was well turned over by an Aidan O’Brien runner one of our selections in the BETDAQ MULTIBET Grand Reward (3-2/1) scored on his bumper debut.

John Gosden bids to land the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes for the second year running at 3-10 at Newmarket. The Jimmy Fortune ridden Duncan looks set to go off favourite here for Gosden following his close fourth to Ask in a blanket finish to the Coronation Stakes at Epsom last time but the 4yo does not boast a win in three tries at this venue and the the easy Heritage handicap winner could just be vulnerable here. The Bin Suroor yard are also double handed here and course winner Campanologist was only just nailed late by Bronze Cannon over the distance in the Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot and the Frankie Dettori ridden gelding should go close here. However we will ‘buck the trend’ and instead side with the only 3yo in the race – the apparent Gosden second string Alwaary who clearly looks on the upgrade and arguably has the most room for progression as there was a lot to like about his comfortable success in a Goodwood Listed contest on good ground seven weeks ago. The Richard Hills ridden youngster can cause an upset at the expense of Campanologist and Duncan though Michael Jarvis’s All The Aces would prove a big danger to all if he gets the ease in the ground which he requires.

A small field of handicappers assemble at 6-30 at Leopardstown but it is nevertheless an open looking 7f handicap for the money. David Marnane is doubly represented by the all the way Listowel mile maiden winner and top weight Spirit Of Xaar and course and distance scoring filly July Days who has gone up 6lbs for that narrow win over a month ago. Edward Lynams twice raced Decent Fella landed his maiden over the distance on the all weather at Dundalk by the minimum margin from another of tonights opponents Lista Lightning who looks exposed despite being better off by 7lbs pounds this time. Decent Fella’s last run saw the son of Marju possibly hit the front too early over 6f at Naas on easier ground and tonights trip/ground should suit the Kevin Manning ridden runner. Ger Lyons yard are in fine form and he can provide the answer to this contest with Kalacan who may not have been suited by the drop back to 6f last time when finishing fifth to his well supported stable mate Tarrsille at Fairyhouse. He had shown progressive form on his first couple of starts, including an easy win over the distance from modest opposition at Limerick and he can beat Decent Fella and Mick Halford’s mare Magic Mornings who followed up three second placings at Dundalk (AW) with a narrow success in a Fairyhouse 7f maiden in a slowish time five weeks ago.

The 6f contest at Leopardstown tonight at 8-00 looks an interesting punting event with all bar two of the runners looking to hold prospects. Ger Lyons Leandros has won over the distance at Dundalk and comes here fresh from a battling win in a similar Naas contest over 7f where he had one of tonights opponents Empirical Power (rec 4lbs) less than two lengths back in third and he can again account for that one. In form trainer Joanna Morgan is represented by Miss Gorica who also boasts a win over this trip (Navan) and the 5yo has also landed a 7f handicap on this course in the past. She has been running reasonably well in Group contests the last twice and this represents a drop in class. Impossible Dream is rated the second highest in the field (behind Leandros) but the Kinsella trained 5yo has done all his winning at 7f and in addition may need further ‘cut’ in the ground. The same comment applies to one of the two 3yo in the contest – the Kevin Prendergast trained filly Roof Fiddle who is the least exposed runner in the field. The Beverly 5f winner on his debut last year she could be the type to back when fresh and getting the allowances from her older rivals she could spring a minor surprise at the expense of Leandros and Miss Gorica on her first try on good ground under Declan McDonagh.

A 12f maiden closes the Leopardstown card at 9-00 and it is difficult to get away from the first three in the market. Unusually Aidan O’Brien introduces a debutant in blinkers in the shape of Tinseltown and this can hardly be viewed as a positive for the son of Sadler’s Wells. The two to concentrate on may be two 3yo once raced fillies in Boulay and Noble Galilieo. Boulay would appear to be the obvious form choice on her staying on third to Dixie Music over 10f at this venue two months ago where she had the subsequent Queen’s Vase runner up Yankee Doodle one placing in front in a decent time when unfancied ‘at the books’. However the Michael Grassick is just overlooked in favour of the John Oxx trained Noble Galileo who did not get the ‘rub of the green’ on her Gowran debut over a fortnight ago when just losing out by a couple of necks to a couple of more experienced fillies over 9 1/2f when quietly fancied at bigger odds. She was doing her best work at the finish there and Mick Kinane and Oxx can again combine to add to their recent haul to land the odds here.

ADVICE
3pt win ALWAARY 3-10 Newmarket
2pt win (saver) DUNCAN 3-10 Newmarket
4pt win KALACAN 6-30 Leopardstown
2pt win (saver) DECENT FELLA 6-30 Leopardstown
3pt win ROOF FIDDLE 8-00 Leopardstown
2pt win (saver) LEANDROS 8-00 Leopardstown
5pt win (nap) NOBLE GALILEO 9-00 Leopardstown
1pt win (saver) BOULAY 9-00 Leopardstown

We are now recording the daily profit and loss of Ireland's Eye to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races.

Wednesday's Return was: LOSS 0.53 points

DAQMAN on Wednesday

2009-07-08T11:58:01+01:00


Wednesday 8 July DAQMAN 11-1 WINNER: Though his main bet went down yesterday, Daqman came up smelling of roses via Dickie Le Davoir (won 11-1); for once, SP gave him a better result than expected. NINE DAYS IN PROFIT OUT OF 11: That put him in profit, over the 150-points mark, for the ninth day in the last 11. TEN LAYS IN A ROW: Wide-open races and tight form lines on the July Course today mean that Daqman is not risking a lay (he’s currently 10 out of 10) or a banker bet. He is looking for going and draw indicators for the rest of the meeting this week. It’s difficult to concentrate after my nightmare last night: I had to watch the opening day of the July Meeting on Channel-4 (for those students of Jung who think that’s sufficient explanation, sorry but there’s more). Andrew Franklin and his production team had decided to compete with Kempton’s ‘musical race’ tonight: they superimposed ‘Tommo’ doing Tracy Turnblad’s Hairspray dancing over the 2.35, had Jim McGrath as Lonnie Donegan strumming up the 2.00 (Sloop JohnB) and ‘Big Mac’ doing a Judy Garland impression at 3.10 (Rainbow View), a sort of yellowbrick toad. In my dream, I e-mailed them and said: will you play Eva’s Request (3.10)? The request is ‘stop this ineffable nonsense and get on with the racing’. I have deleted or modified words from the original of the dream e-mail, so as not to offend any children reading this or any children responsible for playing the William Tell Overture over the 7.20 at Kempton tonight. 1.30 Newmarket (fillies’ handicap): Gimme some bias! Until we know how the draw will affect the straight-course races (5f – 1m), we have to best-guess its effect and, in the opener, the known front-runners Arabian Mirage (stall 1), Lovely Thought (2), Cumana Bay (14), and Greenisland (11) – possibly joined by Resort (15) – are on opposite flanks. Also, Channel-4 please note, we are anxious to know the ground conditions: no pogo-sticks, no Francome fandango but a proper assessment from jockeys who have walked the course, please. Some of the fancied runners are up a couple of grades from modest class-4 handicaps; those who have kept better company are Rosabee (but question mark over first run back), Sea Of Leaves (but absent nearly a year), First City and Photographic. First City, third in the Nell Gwyn, was fifth in the Sandringham, form boosted by Golden Stream, Silver Games and Say No Now. Photographic was well beaten that day but she was badly drawn and Ascot’s not her track; she’ll be more at home here, dropped back a furlong. Balaagha, Mastoora, Resort and Pyrrha are all lightly raced and any one of them could improve, so we need good odds: I took 12.5 each First City and Pyrrha, and 13.5 Photographic. If the gamble is for the Stoute beast, Resort, get on. 2.00 Newmarket (heritage handicap): Another wide-open race. The pace, if it comes, as expected, from Run For The Hills and Spring Green, is middle to high. I wouldn’t put you off the Mr Consistents - Akhenaten, Parisian Pyramid and Shamwari Lodge (form well boosted and, actually, she’s a filly) - but Damien (in 2) drops from Listed contests and Total Gallery (11) from Group-3, while Enact (3) may be better than the bare form if you read between the lines, as you often have to with a Stoute runner. While his draw is a worry, Damien looks well handicapped and his sire has a fine 20.66% place-strike (500-runner survey) with cut in the ground. Again, a move in the market for the Stoute runner would be significant. I thought 18.5 about a Murtagh spare ride – Total Gallery – was good value. Damien, too, at 19.0, has his conditions. Saver: Shamwari Lodge. 2.35 Newmarket (Cherry Hinton): Habaayib is the one who’s done it and done it well; though, again, we don’t yet know about draw or ground, and the smaller field might not provide the strong gallop she needs. The Queen Mary 2nd, 3rd and 4th - Misheer, Capercaillie and Ceedwell – all reoppose and it may be that getting within five or seven lengths of Jealous Again is the nearest any filly (or colt?) will ever get. Mick Channon took this last year with Please Sing and the last time the owner of Hairspray named one after a cosmetic, it was Lipstick. She is better than the bare form. The same survey from which I produced the Damien stat (above) tells me that Habaayib’s sire, Royal Applause, shows a 66-point loss on his two-year-olds on ground good-to-soft or worse. Winners of the Albany are four from five in the Cherry Hinton. But it may be that the Queen Mary was the stronger race and conditions have changed. If Habaayib does win this, in different circumstances and beating the Jealous Again challengers, she’s sure headed for the top. 3.10 Newmarket (Falmouth): There’s not a generous layer among you; the best you could do last night was 9-4 Rainbow View. Having declared the bet in yesterday’s column, I have to stand by it, but nervously. The stats say ‘yes’: if you take Soviet Song out of the equation – she made this race her own – you have three-year-olds on six out of eight in the Falmouth, usually Coronation Stakes and Oaks failures. Rainbow View was third in the Coronation. Home reports also say ‘yes’: she did a humdinger of a final gallop, with onlookers cooing: ‘She’s definitely back to her best now.’ And the filly is returning to a track she loves. The snag is we were hoping she was ‘back to her best’ in the Oaks; we were hoping she was ‘back to her best’ in the Coronation. For a third-time-lucky bet, you need better than 9-4. Goldikova is an obvious threat; she twice disposed of Darjina last season on good-to-soft ground. Heaven Sent let Spacious get first run at Ascot, where Eva’s Request (beat Spacious at Epsom) edged about on the firm surface. But I’ve been and gone and done it, and moved my chips in early on Rainbow View. In other races, Tiger Hawk (3.45) is yet another possible each way at big odds (19.0 on the Daq as I write): regarded as the Callaghans best two-year-old. If Enact runs well, it’s a pointer to her work companion, Pumpkin (9.20 Kempton) It’s a very hard first day; my ideas for anyone coming out in front is that he should get away from racing and treat himself to a soothing night of classical music with a glass or two of champagne; alternatively, he could put an apple on his head and go to Kempton Park. Pumpkin pie anyone?

TODAY'S BETS
BET 1pt win on each FIRST CITY, PHOTOGRAPHIC and PYRRHA (1.30 Newmarket) BET 1pt win and place on each DAMIEN and TOTAL GALLERY, and 1pt win (saver) SHAMWARI LODGE (2.00 Newmarket) BET 4pts win MISHEER and 2pts (saver) HABAAYIB (2.35 Newmarket) BET 4pts win RAINBOW VIEW (3.10 Newmarket) BET 1pt win and place TIGER HAWK (3.45 Newmarket) BET 6pts win PUMPKIN (9.20 Kempton) We are now recording the daily profit and loss of DAQMAN to help readers gauge the current form of the service. We will provide the profit / loss on the previous day to a £1 level stake on each selection (eg: a 5 point bet = a £5 stake). In the interests of consistency the profit / loss will be recorded at SP prices, however BETDAQ users can reasonably expect to beat SP in the majority of races. Tuesday's Return was: PROFIT 1.50 points

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