Betdaq Extra

IRELAND'S EYE on Friday

2010-03-19T11:50:59+00:00

Friday 19 March

IRELAND'S EYE

It is our last change to make a telling profit at Cheltenham and whilst the Gold Cup may not prove the ideal medium to show profit we do have some interesting bigger priced selections on another day which looks tough for punters. Willie Mullins bottom weight in the County Hurdle ‘catches the eye’ at generous odds while we will take on an impressive ex pointer in the Albert Bartlett hurdle with an unbeaten pointer/hurdler from the in form Pipe yard.

It was a case of so near but yet so far when our nap Sunnyhillboy (8-6/1) failed to jump well enough till staying on to take a close second in the 2m 5f hc chase yesterday. Nevertheless on a slightly disappointing day we did register two winners with Albertas Run (14/1) taking the Ryanair under the champ Tony McCoy while another saver Big Bucks (evens-5/6) won the featured World Hurdle in great style. In addition China Rock (10-9/1), The Midnight Club (16/1), Poquelin (3-11/4) and Ma Yahab (20-14/1) all filled the frame.

1-30 TRIUMPH HURDLE – 2m

A race which has not been kind to the Irish and but Edward O’Gradys Alaivan and Gordon Elliotts Carlito Brigante hold strong claims in this years renewal. The former should prove the best of the pair as he was useful for John Oxx on the flat but the vote goes to an unexposed ex French gelding in the Henderson trained SOLDATINO on just his second start in Britain but the grey can account for the Charlie Egerton trained Westlin’ Winds and Alaivan and give Barry Geraghty his third winner of the week.

2-05 COUNTY HURDLE – 2m 1f

Traditionally one of the toughest handicaps of the week but surprisingly it has provided a decent strike rate for favourites in recent years. Our cash will be on the apparent Willie Mullins ‘second string’ TARKARI off bottom weight as the 5yo three time hurdle victor should be favoured by better ground off bottom weight the David Casey ridden 5yo can beat another bottom weight in the Donald McCain handled Inventor while last Saturdays Imperial Cup runner up Oldrik is another who can go close for his in form yard.

2-40 ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICE hurdle 3m

Tell Massini has proved a ‘bargain buy’ for the Tom George yard as the ex point winner has landed three hurdles in the style of a top class prospect, including twice over the course (distance once) but is with reluctance that we pass over the Dr Massini gelding here in what looks a very strong renewal. Former Louis Archdeacon trained point winner CHARTREUX is the sporting choice here to follow up his bumper and hurdle win for the in form Pipe Yard with the step up in distance and better ground looking likely to suit the son of Colonel Collins. The tough course winner Restless Harry in addition to the useful mare Silver Kate are others for the shortlist in a wide open contest.

3-20 GOLD CUP – 3m 2f 110yds

We have had the audacity to take on KAUTO STAR in the past and the inclination is to do the same this afternoon in the Festival feature but it is impossible to quibble with the hat trick seeking Gold Cup candidate following his demolition job on the opposition in the King George. With everything in his favour he looks the most likely winner given the doubts about Denman on the ground but the best value could lie with another stable mate of the favourites, namely the progressive Tricky Trickster who could prove the best value to spring a surprise with the trip likely to bring out the best in the 7yo. Cooldine must strongly enter calculations but an easing in the ground would have proved a benefit to the Willie Mullins hope.

4-00 CHRISTIE’S FOXHUNTER chase – 3m 2f 110yds

The Waley-Cohen favourite Roulez Chouz clearly has the winning of this on his chase form but he may have to give best to last years third BABY RUN who looked to have improved in the interim and the Twiston Tavies trained 10yo has since ‘bagged’ a top hunter event at Punchestown and returned with a fine win at Warwick. Though the stable have not exactly been firing in the winners of late he should give the trainers son Sam a day to remember here where his main dangers could prove to be the progressive Gentle George under Richard Burton and the veteran Cowboyboots.

4-40 MARTIN PIPE hc hurdle – 2m 4 1/2f

Philip Hobbs has had a fine week so far with two winners on the board and he can have further reasons to celebrate here as his CLOVA ISLAND can overcome a 10lb penalty for his recent Kempton win over 2m 5f with better ground likely to prove a positive and the 3lb claim of Giles Hawkins should also prove beneficial. In another fiercely competitive handicap Lord Generous and Born Again look the best alternative bets for the respective Henderson and O’Neill yards.

5-15 GRAND ANNUAL hc chase – 2m 110yds

The finale could provide the Tizzard yard with their second winner of the week as their charge OISEAU DE NUIT looks to have decent prospects of landing his sixth chase victory. Winner here over course and distance off a considerably lower mark the 8yo could still be open to further progress and he may just have the edge on the hat trick seeking Green Belt Elite on their running at Wincanton in December on soft. There was little between the pair on that occasion and it could be same scenario here but the tougher circuit could suit the selection and he can account for Green Belt Elite and bottom weight Nikola here.

ADVICE
BET 3pt win SOLDATINO 1-30 Cheltenham
BET 2pt wi (savers) WESTLIN’ WINDS and ALAIVAN 1-30 Cheltenham
BET 3pt win TARKARI 2-05 Cheltenham
BET 2pt/1pt win (savers) INVENTOR and OLDRIK 2-05 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win/1pt place (nap) CHARTREUX 2-40 Cheltenham
BET 2pt/1pt win (savers) RESTLESS HARRY and SILVER KATE 2-40 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win KAUTO STAR 3-20 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win/1pt place TRICKY TRICKSTER 3-20 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win BABY RUN 4-00 Cheltenham
BET 2ptwin/1pt win (savers) GENTLE GEORGE and COWBOYBOOTS 4-00 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win CLOVA ISLAND 4-40 Cheltenham
BET 1pt win (savers) LORD GENEROUS and BORN AGAIN 4-40 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win OISEAU DE NUIT 5-15 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win/1pt win (savers) GREEN BELT ELITE and NIKOLA 5-15 Cheltenham

DAQMAN on Friday

2010-03-19T11:37:06+00:00


Friday 19 March DAQMAN DAQMAN ON TOP OF THE WORLD: Daqman used Betdaq facilities to bag a bundle of better-value bets in the World Hurdle yesterday. He warned to wait for a better price for his maximum-stakes banker Big Buck’s (won 5-6 SP) and had huge back-and-lay success as he correctly nominated pacesetters Fair Along and War Of Attrition at 142.0 and 48.0 before offers tumbled to a fraction of those odds in running. Today he takes 215.0 and 74.0 offers. SENSATIONAL 16 LAYS IN A ROW: Meanwhile his amazing world-record lays sequence marches on: he made it 16 consecutive losing favourites at Cheltenham with his fourth maximum-stakes lay this week, flooring Alfie Sherrin (only 12th at 11-4). SEVEN IN A ROW IN 12 DAYS: That made it seven in a row in the last 12 days, and four out of four at this year’s festival following six at each big Cheltenham meeting in 2008 and 2009.   GOLD CUP SHOCK: Daqman turns up some simple stats on the Gold Cup which suggest that not even Arkle or Golden Miller could win the race today. As Oscar Wilde might have said, for Paul Nicholls to have one champion may be regarded as misfortune but to allow him two may be deemed carelessness. It’s been Denman or Kauto Star for three years now. Nothing else in any other back yard? Where’s the opposition? Nicholls so dominates this year that he’s making up the opposition himself! As well as the front two, he runs My Will and Tricky Trickster, and one of his cast-offs, Mr Pointment, makes five Ditcheat babes in a field of 11. But past results also deliver a warning: only one of his contingent, Tricky Trickster, is of Gold Cup winning age, since only one horse over the age of nine has won in the last 16 runnings of the race since 1992. Not even Arkle, not Golden Miller, and not in modern times Best Mate of the great gold-plated heroes had the lungs left to win this at a double-figure age. Winning gold is a young man’s game but is there a young horse worth the shilling? 1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle): Not normally a race for the Irish but Edward O’Grady remains their most successful trainer in the 40 years since Tom Dreaper and, before him (over jumps), Vincent O’Brien. And Edward’s Alaivan is the class horse of this race. His sire, Kalanisi, and his grandsire, Ela-Mana-Mou (daddy of the great Double Trigger) both loved the going on top, yet Alaivan has slogged through the Irish bogs to win hurdles on heavy ground, including a Grade 2.  Actually, I’ll withdraw that word ‘slogged’: Alaivan, who won the Gowran Park Classic Trial on the Flat for John Oxx last year, scored over hurdles on the soft at Fairyhouse by 17 lengths. His win was no slog but ‘soon led, clear before the last, easily.’  The ‘soon led’ is the downside (though back-and-lay punters will disagree); he’s settled down a bit but, in his previous race, took an even keener hold and had nothing left when headed by Carlito Brigante. Again I’ve got the wrong word: ‘headed’ hardly allows for the 11 lengths ‘Carlito’ won by. And the horse ‘Carlito’ beat easily at Musselburgh in November, name of Orsippus, finished third in the Fred Winter on Wednesday behind Sanctuaire. Some 18 lengths behind the winner was Loch Long, who was 17 lengths in arrear of Alaivan at Fairyhouse. Not much in it if that worked out, is there. The ‘but’ with ‘Carlito’ is that he’s bred to win a Guineas (by Haafd out of a Green Desert mare), so class yes, but the stamina to get up the Cheltenham hill? I’d rather be on Alaivan, wouldn’t you.  Secant Star has tried two ways of running, making all last time – which probably did him a world of good – and previously coming through to lead in the straight at Leopardstown, only to fluff his lines when clear at the last. Incidentally, Loch Long was nine lengths behind the lucky winner, Sword Fish. Tenuous collateral form but helps firm my resolve.  Secant Star (11.5), Westlin Winds (13.0) and Blazing Buck (215.0) are the likely front-runners and I can’t resist the chance that Lee Edwards’ ride will blaze a trail but it’s back-and-lay for small bucks in this one (as opposed to big bucks in the big ‘un yesterday). Nicholls and Henderson, Triumph winners for the last two years, have high hopes of Advisor (has worked well with Celestial Halo) and Soldatino, pick of a host of other possibles and top of the official ratings. But the winner of this is always very special – Celestial Halo, Detroit City, Katchit, Zaynar - and Alaivan would not be out of place in their ranks.  2.05 Cheltenham (County Hurdle): It’s a very good horse indeed that can carry more than 11st to victory here, like a Rooster Booster (2002), and Tony McCoy has the added problem that the French champion hurdler, Rock Noir (13.5), is normally a front-runner, though he will expect a lead from Marodima (a massive back and lay at 74.0). Galway Hurdle winner Bahrain Storm (44.0) will love the return to top of the ground and is a ridiculous price: there’s real quality at the top of this handicap. Four of the last six winners have been just on the cusp - 10st 10lb to 11st. - so note that Paul Nicholls (three wins in six years) has got it right with Tito Bustillo, and four of the last six scorers have been five-year-olds.  ’Tito’ has a bit to find with Henderson’s Bellvano (holds Inventor) but is better off at the weights and both trainers will have been delighted to see Menorah boost the Bellvano form earlier in the week. Puyol, who holds Thousand Stars (may improve on today’s surface), has run Dunguib to four or five lengths, but he in turn may not confirm Pierse Hurdle form with Tawaagg on good ground. Dee Ee Williams (30.0) gave Binocular something to think about at Sandown in February and is back on the good ground he loves for a stable which ran a place in the Coral Cup. It’s all a question of whether the blinkers work a second time at his optimum trip. He’s a back and lay as a Pricewise tip. 2.40 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett): Half this field (literally) is untried beyond 2m 4f but the serious horses – placed in Graded races – have all proved their stamina: Enterprise Park, Quel Esprit, Restless Harry, Tell Massini, Wayward Prince and Premier Victory. I shall add The Hurl to the short-list, as Mouse Morris did everything right with China Rock yesterday; he just didn’t get the trip. Premier Victory seems sure to be in the front rank most of the way and, at 31.0, is my back-and-lay bet, along with The Hurl (41.0). I imagine McCoy will try to restrain The Hurl’s enthusiasm somewhat but seeing the champion jockey among the leaders should draw plenty of bets. I shall charge The Hurl to the account as an each-way bet, with Tell Massini and Enterprise Park as my main selections. 3.20 Cheltenham (The Gold Cup): I asked where are the young bloods and the only possible answer can be Cooldine. He holds soft-ground horse Carruthers on form and Tricky Trickster has 40lb to find with Kauto Star on official ratings. Imperial Commander has never won a race beyond 21 furlongs. They have fielded against Denman this morning and, though he’s bounced back from his setbacks before and has A.P. McCoy determined to redress his personal record on him, he is not a top-of-the-ground speed horse and can be expected to struggle on today’s surface. If it’s a two-horse race between the king, Kauto Star, and the young pretender, Cooldine, with the one at 1.79 and the other at 11.5, there is no choice in betting terms. Cooldine’s price at 11.5 also begs for an each-way bet. Back-and-lay boys will know he often sets the pace but that would not help his chances. My verdict would be: Kauto Star to beat Cooldine. While value is the only way to bet, I shall get round the problem by doubling Kauto Star with a good thing at Lingfield. Working the best position for yourself is what Betdaq betting is all about. 4.00 Cheltenham (Foxhunters): Earthmover apart (he won aged 13 in 2004), this race has seen young horses trained successfully for it in the last seven years, with ages 6, 7 and 9 (four times) scoring over the experienced hunters, often seemingly unexpected at 33-1 and 20-1 (twice). But the jockeyship required never varies, so that the absolute top amateurs (Burton, Greenall, McNamara) win it every time.  In the field this year, Roulez Cool has Sam Whaley-Cohen, and Baby Run Sam Twiston-Davies, Gentle George has Richard Burton and Bob Hall as Adrian Berry. Tom Greenall’s on Trust Fund and Ollie’s on Amicelli with Derek O’Connor riding On The Net. Nina Carberry’s best of the lady riders on Dun Doire. The winner is among those. The short list of young horses – Bob Hall, Gentle George and Roulez Cool – leads me to Betdaq value at 21.0 Gentle George; improving and likes good gorund. The trip is a worry for Bob Hall but Roulez Cool, 9lb in hand on official figures, looks a hot danger. 4.40 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Conditionals): This time you’re sorting the wheat from the chaff among the conditionals; but I hope they all enjoy this race in honour of one of the sports greatest trainers. You are on a hiding to nothing here as punter or layer; I shall just have a pound that David Pipe has successfully worked Ashkazar’s handicap position to win his dad’s race. 5.15 Cheltenham (Grand Annual): That’s it for another year and, if I’m to earn my black belt among the elite of layers, then I’m signing off with a lay on a stable that normally does well at Cheltenham but has done nothing this time: Venetia Williams with paper-favourite Green Belt Elite. He’s had his wins too soon, and mainly in the mud; a 10lb rise and a sound surface should put paid to him. Nicky Henderson has worked his magic again and I can’t fault anyone for backing You’re The Top yet he picked out Pepysrock for special attention at a race preview the other night and 19.5 is value for a top-of-the-ground horse. TODAY'S BETS BET 5pts ALAIVAN (1.30 Cheltenham) BANKER 10pts win BEGGARS OPERA (1.55 Lingfield) WIN-100 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place BAHRAIN STORM, plus 1pt win and place on each ROCK NOIR and DEE EE WILLIAMS (2.05 Cheltenham) BET 2pts win and place on each TELL MASSINI and ENTERPRISE PARK, and 1pt win and place THE HURL (2.40 Cheltenham) BET 2pts win and place COOLDINE (3.20 Cheltenham) BET 3pts win and place ROULEZ COOL and 2pts win and 1pt place GENTLE GEORGE (4.00 Cheltenham) BET 3pts win and place ASHKAZAR (4.40 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts GREEN BELT ELITE and win 100-JACKPOT BET: 5pts win and 1pt place PEPYSROCK (5.15 Cheltenham) DAQ MULTIPLES: 5pts win double Beggars Opera (1.55 Lingfield) and Kauto Star (3.20 Cheltenham)
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IRELAND'S EYE on Thursday

2010-03-18T11:44:18+00:00

Thursday 18 March

IRELAND'S EYE

Day 2 of Cheltenham did not prove as kind to us as the opening day. Despite that however we did register two winners through our savers Peddlers Cross (7/1) in the novice hurdle while Ruby Walsh reached another milestone in his career by landing his 26th winner at the Festival with Sanctuaire (6-4/1). In addition Al Ferof (9-8/1) finished an honourable runner up to an easy winner of the bumper.

In what is usually the toughest day of the Festival we are confident of getting a few decent priced winners on the board with a low weight ‘catching the eye’ in the closing handicap and a progressive and still reasonably treated handicap hurdler can land a red hot handicap for one of the lesser yards.

1-30 JEWSON NOVICE – 2m 4f hc hurdle

When faced with these competitive handicaps it is usually wise to go back to form in Graded company and the one that ‘ticks’ that box is the Mouse Morris trained CHINA ROCK. The 7yo has not been disgraced in Grade 1 and 2 chases on his last three runs and the ‘Slippers’ Madden ridden gelding who ran well in taking fourth in the Champion novice hurdle here last year should appreciate the better ground and looks to be on a fair mark. Dangers include Hey Big Spender – a course and distance winner who could give the Tizzard yard their second win of the week and Willie Mullins The Midnight Club who might be suited by some ‘juice’ in the ground but the 9yo did show some ability on that surface ‘between the flags’ in past.

2-05 PERTEMPS FINAL 3m hc hurdle

Another contest which boasts a poor favourites record and though Paul Nicholls ex pointer Alfie Sherrin could prove well handicapped there is a slight danger that this race could come too soon for the 7yo. One that appeals at a big price is the highly progressive ex pointer CROSS KENNON from the Jennie Candish yard as there seems to be little signs that the Craigsteel gelding has stopped his winning run and though this looks his stiffest test to date he could strike off a low weight here under Alan O’Keeffe. Irish challenger Time Electric will love the better ground here and could go close under Davy Russell while fellow raider Smoking Aces is another to consider in first time cheekpieces.

2-40 RYANAIR CHASE – 2m 5f

Not highly original but the vote here has to go to the Paul Nicholls trained POQUELIN who boasts a fine record at the track and he comes here fresh since he was not been seen since landing the Boylesports Gold Cup here over CD at the end odf last year. Scotsirish could turn out to be the best of the Irish challengers while Albertas Run cannot be discounted either despite having to find something ‘in the book’ on recent efforts but the O’Neill trained dual course winner does have his preferred good ground.

3-20 WORLD HURDLE – 3m

It is tempting to go with the obvious and tip the reigning champion Big Buck’s to land the title for the second year and Paul Nicholls seven year old holds the Alan King trained KARABAK on their running in the Long Walk at Newbury in December. However better ground may bring about the necessary improvement in the Tony McCoy ridden 7yo and he can bring down the third leg of the ‘fabulous four’ (Dunguib and Master Minded already floored) here.

4-00 BYRNE GROUP hc chase – 2m 5f

Local trainer Johnjo O’Neill invariably gets on the score sheet and he looks to have fine prospects of landing this open looking handicap with the dual chase scorer Sunnyhillboy who looks to be well handicapped here with the useful 3lb climing Richie McLernon on board. With the trip looking ideal for the 7yo the Old Vic gelding should be ‘right at home’ on this surface and he can account for another possible improver in the Lucy Wadham trained Victorias Groom while dual CD winner The Sawyer could go close off a higher weight though a little ease in the ground could suit the 10yo.

4-40 FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR hc chase - 3m 1f 110yds

Venetia Williams boasts a fine record in the Festival handicaps and her relatively unexposed Ma Yahab looks a decent win/place bet here off near bottom weight with Harry Challoner taking off 3lbs. Lightly raced this season the 9yo has effectively a pound or so on main danger Shillingstone from the Sally Alner yard on their running at Sandown over 3m 1f on just his second run following an absence. However the Alner runner was having his first run for almost three months and the former hunter chaser could be open to more improvement also. Phillip Hobbs Course and distance winner Boychuk under champion Irish point rider Derek O’Connor is another to consider with his stable in fine form at present.

ADVICE
BET 4pt win CHINA ROCK 1-30 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win/1pt win (savers) HEY BIG SPENDER and THE MIDNIGHT CLUB 1-30 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win POQUELIN 2-40 Cheltenham
BET 1pt win (savers) SCOTSIRISH and ALBERTAS RUN 2-40 Cheltenham
BET 3pt win KARABAK 3-20 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win (saver) BIG BUCK’S 3-20 Cheltenham
BET 5pt win (nap) SUNNYHILLBOY 4-00 Cheltenham
BET 2pt/1pt win (savers) VICTORIAS GROOM and THE SAWYER 4-00 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win MAY YAHAB 4-40 Cheltenham
BET 2pt/1pt win (savers) SHILLIGSTONE and BOYCHUK 4-40 Cheltenham

DAQMAN on Thursday

2010-03-18T11:04:28+00:00


Thursday 18 March DAQMAN DAQMAN CLAIMS WORLD RECORD: Our top tipster Daqman continued his fabulous sequence of Cheltenham lays with Long Run (3rd 11-4) yesterday to make it, currently, six in a row. But his Festival lays sequence over three seasons must be some kind of record in the new age of exchange betting. 15 CONSECUTIVE AT THE FESTIVAL: After two on Tuesday, Long Run brought his Cheltenham Festival total to 15 straight lays up, following six at each of the last two festivals, all favourites or paper favourites. His record sequence in ordinary races is 16, so he’s anxious to match that in his festival rout of the hot-pot aces. His challenge to players is ‘bust me!’ NINE-LENGTHS WINNER: He knows which favourites to back, too. He was on the only winning market leader on Tuesday, Quevega (won 6-4), and the sole front-of-the-betting success yesterday, Sanctuaire (won 4-1), who scored by nine lengths. MASSIVE BACK-AND-LAY OFFERS TODAY: Look out today for another lay, two bankers and some massive back-and-lay odds up to 142.0. Isn’t there a sentimental ditty about ‘fighting the impossible fight’? The line keeps singing in my head as I survey the legion of favourites lost and outsiders returned; for most punters, the wrong ones in each case. Yet I’m in danger of landing some kind of world record lays sequence at Cheltenham: the reason is that punters and pundits alike follow big names blind, even when there’s good reason to be against. The Dunguibs and the Master Mindeds are never invincible but you still need a good reason to oppose them when you’re putting down hard cash: I can’t find one in Big Buck’s case; but the trainer can. The ‘quirky’ horse sometimes does the unexpected; the ‘character’ has his own way; the ‘thinker’ remembers the pain. Paul Nicholls knows there are little bits of these in Big Buck’s. Obviously a certain R. Walsh knows, too, and is ready for them. But, as a result of his being odds on, are there horses ‘too big’ in the market that deserve to be backed? Karabak? You can’t have an Alan King horse on your mind, can you? Tidal Bay? Yes, in a slow-run race: it was 30 seconds slow when he beat Time For Rupert and Katchit (Alan King) over CD in January, and ‘Rupert’, with the potential to improve at age six, could well reverse the form on good ground. I read that there’ll be cat-and-mouse tactics to get Big Buck’s ‘beat’: surely not with Fair Along and War Of Attrition (what’s he doing here?) in the race. Back and lay them at 142.0 and 48.0 respectively (at time of writing); their odds will surely crash but I can’t see either of them winning this. Layers may even be drawn into giving your mouse a glimpse of evens or odds against about the favourite as these front-runners take their attention, so the shape of the race is all good punting news. At least Karabak has McCoy up; at least he likes the ground; is lightly raced; and is the only one within a stone of Big Buck’s on official ratings. Lie Forrit has improved to get an OR alongside the rest and, at 74.0, he might get in the frame. Verdict: 1 Big Buck’s, 2 Karabak, 3 Lie Forrit. Now read on (you’re ahead of me. I still haven’t found a lay). 1.30 Cheltenham (Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase): The winner of this has never carried a big weight and you need an attacking young player not a seasoned defender of eight and over (their record is 0-29). No surprise that Nicky Henderson has one or two slotted into the right parameters, alongside Paul Nicholls and Ferdy Murphy, who have both won the race with similar sorts. In fact, we can narrow the stats down even further: the last four winners were officially rated between 133 and 135 and all five in the Jewson’s history had won only once over fences. King’s Forest 23.0 and Tanks For That 29.0 fit both stats. Tanks For That, along with Fiendish Flame (35.0), could pay back-and-lay players but there’s so much potential pace on here, including from Rivalliste, whose trainer, Paul Nicholls, should know where he is with Hey Big Spender through Inchidaly Rock. ‘Spender’ won a solid trial for this; so did Seven is My Number but they don’t want him this morning at 35.0. Dave’s Dream, Copper Beu and Linabane have good credentials and The Hollinwell is a superb jumper but the one the Irish grapevine tells me is laid out for this is China Rock, and you can expect a massive punt from the Mouse Morris contingent. 2.05 Cheltenham (Pertemps Final): Seemingly, the cunning required here is to qualify and get a sight of the others without exposing too much: so it is that only one horse has beaten the 11st 2lb barrier. But, if that makes it sound like a plot race, forget it: winners at 50-1 (twice), 20-1, 18-1, 16-1 and 14-1 all go to suggest that connections were as surprised as we were. That’s why I am laughing little apples that I can lay a 10-3 favourite. What on earth price is that for a race like this? As the trainer, Paul Nicholls, says in the trade paper, ‘the odds look pretty skinny to me.’ Alfie Sherrin is a hard horse to train, a glass horse, and bringing him out quickly ‘could be a negative’. If 33 days is ‘quickly’, we sure have a negative about this beast: on past performance, his next race is actually due in October. Alfie Sherrin is officially ahead of the handicapper despite being hiked 12lb for his Newbury success and it could turn out that way but Nicholls has yet to win this; I’d go head down with him at a short price in a chase but not in a hurdle. And head down it must be in this case: he’s either going to win or lose badly; it’s twist or bust-me time in my lays sequence. Bust me! Back-and-lay? College Daisy (104.0), Mr. Thriller (50.0), Time Electric (20.0)? The snag with these usual front-runners is that they’ve been held up before when trying to get the trip. Previous winners (Ballyfitz, Kayf Aramis) have never been able to repeat the feat. When a jockey has the choice of rides, they usually ‘hope’ they’ve got it right. In this case, picking Ainama over Smoking Aces and Don’t Push It, Tony McCoy says he’s ‘confident’ he’s got it right. At 8.8, I’ll buy into a champion’s confidence every time. So there it is, then: Henderson v Nicholls, Walsh v McCoy, all over again. In case, she runs (no show from her yesterday), I’ll have to leave a pound on Silk Affair (35.0) but my pick of the long-shots is Rocco’s Hall (35.0). 2.40 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase): One among the trainers of Rocco’s Hall, Alfie Sherrin, and Ainama should win the Ryanair: Nicky Henderson has both Barbers Shop and Petit Robin (and an outsider, Jack The Giant) but I still couldn’t back them if either Poquelin (Nicholls) or Tranquil Sea (O’Grady) were missing from the line-up. In the four-year history of this race, all winners had won or been placed at Cheltenham in the same season: Poquelin has won twice and been second once in three Cheltenham races since October. In the middle one of the three he was beaten by Tranquil Sea, the only other in today’s field with recent course form; he was getting a couple of pound that day on soft ground, ‘always in command,’ according to the form book. But that doesn’t tell the whole story: Poquelin hated the conditions, jumped slowly and was hampered when trying to get on terms. Even with his penchant for a sound surface, he still managed to win the Boylesport here on easy going a month later. 3.20 Cheltenham (World Hurdle): Forget outsiders in this; the last 22 winners all finished in the first four on their latest start. So few horses are capable of keeping up the gallop over three miles in top company. So it is that both Baracouda and Inglis Drever won it two years running, and Big Buck’s is all set for a third double in the space of nine years. 4.00 Cheltenham (Byrne Group Plate): Some decent gambles like Idole First and Tikram but they’ve got it all wrong in the last two years, as old boy Mister McGoldrick, then Idole First’s Venetia Williams stablemate, Something Wells, have turned up at 66-1 and 33-1. Venetia has switched her good-ground horse Atouchbetweenacara from the Ryanair; he made all in the Silver Trophy over CD last April, is well fancied at 15.0 this morning and should still be there at the business end. Expect him to be taken on for the lead by Our Vic (49.0) and later by Mister McGoldrick (47.0); though Our Vic prefers it soft, he beat Kauto Star on top of the ground at Aintree a year ago; when Mister McGoldrick won this race in 2008, he took over at the top of the hill. Plenty of room for back-and-lay then, but it would still be nice to find the winner. Nicky Henderson’s won it twice this century, and fancies his mare, My Petra (Grand Annual runner-up 2008) so much that she’s been put in foal so that her chances are not spoiled by being in season. Thankyou, but no thankyou, Nicky; I was there that Grand Annual day when she failed to come up the hill, My hungry mouse will get her if she’s in the front rank over the last! Watch My Back got very close to Poquelin (see 2.40), despite being hampered on today’s course, before a runaway win in the Bet Multiples Betdaq Chase at Doncaster. He likes the ground and Ferdy Murphy is already off the mark at the festival. Sunnyhillboy failed to make the cut for the Jewson and sneaks in with a lightweight here but McCoy finds it no sweat to choose Song Of Songs, despite a doubt about the distance. Atouchbetweenacara is the value but I shall be watching my back. 4.40 Cheltenham (Kim Muir): Isn’t That Lucky! The ground has come right for all three of Jonjo O’Neill’s runners, including the progressive Nostringsattached. But don’t leave out Kia Kaha, who can’t jump out of mud or sticky ground; the drier it gets, the better his chances (30.0 as I write). You need a mature, gutsy horse for this and that’s why nine-year-olds have far and away the best record: Ballabriggs’ big weight was carried last year, and both Boychuk and Ma Yahab seem back to form. The clear choice for back-and-lay is an early offer (I got 20.0) about Hello Bud for three reasons: he loves the ground, front-runs and is the Pricewise tip, so your mouse should be able to saunter to the magic Betdaq button and lay off at leisure. He’ll probably hang on into a place, by which time he’ll be a tenth of his current odds. TODAY'S BETS WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET 4pts win and 2pts place CHINA ROCK (1.30 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts ALFIE SHERRIN and EACH-WAY BANKER 5pts win and place AINAMA, plus 1pt win and place SILK AFFAIR (2.05 Cheltenham) BET 5pts win POQUELIN and 1pt win (saver) TRANQUIL SEA ( 2.40 Cheltenham) BANKER 10pts win BIG BUCK’S (3.20 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT BETS: 3pts win and 1pt place ATOUCHBETWEENACARA plus 4pts win and 2pts place WATCH MY BACK with 2pts win (saver) SUNNYHILLBOY (4.00 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT BETS: 3pts win and 2pts place NOSTRINGSATTACHED and 1pt win and place KIA KAHA, plus 1pt win and place HELLO BUD (4.40 Cheltenham) DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble Ainama (2.05 Cheltenham), Poquelin (2.40 Cheltenham) and Big Buck’s (3.20 Cheltenham)
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DAQMAN on Wednesday

2010-03-17T11:02:18+00:00


Wednesday 17 March DAQMAN 14 IN A ROW FOR FESTIVAL LAYS KING DAQMAN: After six consecutive favourites bit the dust for Daqman at each of the last two Cheltenham Festivals, he continued where he left off yesterday with two more from two bets: Captain Cee Bee (unplaced 5-2) and Bensalem (fell 6-1). 9-1 CHAMPION HURDLE WINNER: After first Somersby (2nd 4-1) and then The Package (2nd 9-2) finished too late to put him in the big money, Daqman bagged the Champion Hurdle winner, Binocular (won 9-1). 35 POINTS PROFIT: Now look out today for another daring day from Daqman of jackpot tilts and fearless lays which brought him 35 points profit on the opening day. 1.30 Cheltenham (National Hunt Chase): Today’s back-and-lay starters must be front-runners Presenting Forever and Fabalu at 17.0 and 18.0 respectively on Betdaq this morning. Becauseicouldn’tsee also likes to be in the van but was down to 10.0, as a Pricewise tip. He would be a most unusual winner, since form over 3m has been essential in the past; the same applies to the rest of the Irish contingent, and I’m not looking for a horse aged nine or over on the faster surface, though I query the logic of a statement yesterday that the ground was drying out all the time, when the last two races were the slowest, and I’m loathe to leave out Abbeybraney, a Grand National entry. There was nothing between course winners Mobaasher and Petitfour on hurdles form but Mobaasher is Flat bred while course-winner Petitfour is store bred for stamina and with last year’s winning combination of Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies. He’s a Supreme Leader out of a Be My Native and, at 14.0, I’d back him to go round again. Others with stamina bred into them and who are already winners at 3m are Any Currency (stable out of form), Gentle Ranger (not fancied at 56.0), Massasoit (blinkers helped him last time) and Synchronised, from Jonjo O’Neill’s yard, which is four from eight in the race. Both the official ratings and the market tell us that Massasoit and Synchronised will fight it out but the one is from a stable which hasn’t won this in 15 years and the other needs rain. 2.05 Cheltenham (Novices Hurdle): This race reminds us of absent friends: Mikael d’Haguenet won it last year, third Irish winner in the last four years. Strike out horses aged seven and eight and all non-winners last time out: that gives you Ireland’s Rite Of Passage this time, unless you again follow official ratings which have him more than a stone behind Peddlers Cross, with Reve De Sivola second best. Rite Of Passage divided Some Present and Quel Esprit behind Dunguib – left with too much to do yesterday – in last year’s Champion Bumper. All three have acquitted themselves well over hurdles, though Some Present has twice blipped at Leopardstown. Reve De Siviola holds Finians Rainbow on heavy ground but it’s anybody’s guess as to the outcome on a much sounder surface; the same applies to Summit Meeting’s form in the Irish bogs; and the problem with Peddlers Cross is whether his North-only performances will translate to the championship track. At 14.5 on the Daq, Summit Meeting is overpriced. 2.40 Cheltenham (RSA Chase): Will the next Denman stand up, please! He was clearly the best winner of this, though the last two, Albertas Run and Cooldine, may want to argue with him about it on Friday. This race has stood on its head in recent years: it used to be a poor guide to the future and produced winners at all prices up to 33-1 (2002) but, in four of the last five years, favourites or nearly so have won and largely gone on to better things. The answer to these flip-flopping stats is often better ground: animals going hell for leather through mud don’t forget the race in a hurry. Today we’re topsy-turvy again in that we need to know what will act on this decent going. There is one definite reply: Punchestowns. Sorry but I must have a top-line professional on my Cheltenham bets and I also worry about the tell-tale signs in the form-book of Long Run’s last three races: ‘not fluent’, ‘mistake’, ‘not fluent’. He’s far too short a price on what he’s done on flat tracks and my opinion on young horses has been made clear several times in this column: Long Run is only five and has to beat 60 barren years for horses of that age in this race. 3.20 Cheltenham (Champion Chase): The ‘fashion’ here doesn’t change. They win it once and they win it again: Moscow Flyer and Master Minded have recently done the double in the hoofprints of Fortria, Drinnys Double, Royal Relief, Skymas, Hilly Way, Pearlyman, Barnbrook Again and Viking Flasgship. But only Badsworth Boy made it three. Time for a change? Maybe. But eight of the last 12 winners were all at least a year older than Master Minded is now - he started winning younger than any horse previously – and only Forpadydeplasterer has scored at Cheltenham before (like 70% of all past champions), though it was by the blink of an eye that he kyboshed Kalahari King in the Arkle. Kalahari King has 15 times in a row been in the first four and has the ground in his favour today. Twist Magic beat him at Sandown last April when he had had several hard races and, not for the first time, his jumping fell apart. It was in the same month that Big Zeb gave Master Minded a fright, going down at Sandown by only a head. When the verdict from such form must be, as it is today, that whatever is fittest on the day and acts best on a sound surface wins, you don’t want to be taking a short price: Twist Magic has never liked Cheltenham and we can’t be sure the Irish will act on the ground. I’ll stick with my ante-post bet. 4.00 Cheltenham (Coral Cup): Claiming riders do better in this than any other Cheltenham open race (examples: the winner in 2007 and second and third last year) and - admittedly it was a steering job - Giles Hawkins got a runaway win out of Wishfull Thinking at Exeter; the stable is the only one to have won the Coral Cup with a novice. What you want are class-3 handicappers (at least), with only two to four runs this season, campaigned with this in mind: Deutschland, Gold Award, Hampshire Express, James De Vassy, Silk Affair and Sir Harry Ormesher fit these stats and are beneath the usual weights ceiling for the race. Silk Affair (19.0 on Betdaq as I write) won last year’s Fred Winter and hopes were high of even a World Hurdle challenge but such a handy rating despite the Cheltenham win has the mare in here with no weight at all. The handicapper has not been so kind to James De Vassy (37.0), hiking him for his close fourth to Khyber Kim at Cheltenham in November but he goes well fresh, this is his target race and the handicapper would probably want to give him even more weight after yesterday’s Champion Hurdle. Of the Mullins pair, Hampshire Express stepped up to 20 furlongs easily but Deutschland was beaten. Gold Award doesn’t quite look good enough, though conditions have come right for him, and Alan King (Sir Harry Ormesher and Silk Hall) is still not firing on the big occasion. 4.40 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Novices’ Handicap): David Pipe has a cracking pair here: the runaway French winner Notus De La Tour is favourite but penalities are hard to carry in this and he might be glad that Hunterview missed the cut in the Imperial Cup; he debuted well in blinkers; then they were taken off. They are back on today. Sanctuaire is the big danger, if all the vibes from Ditcheat are to be believed and, at 9.6 Hunterview and 7.4 Sanctuaire, I’ll dutch to win 30 points. 5.15 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper): Martin Pipe elbowed his way in with Liberman; otherwise Ireland would have swept the board in this, and they don’t mess about: they send over their Dunguibs and their Cousin Vinneys; top class, trained to the minute. It’s also a superb back-and-lay, lay-to-back race; a 25-1 shot led until two out last year, and the year before 100-1 and 40-1 shots led before the top of the hill and on the descent. Six of the eight to finish in the first four were hold-up horses, including four at 10-1 or less (one was 3-1 favourite), seemingly in difficulties and trading much bigger than SP. So get that mouse moving fast! On His Own (66.0), Made In Time (33.0) and Dare Me (26.0) are likely to be in front at some stage of the race but, at the business end, it’s hard to see past the Irish. Most see this is a duel between Shot From The Hip and Elegant Concorde, but I’m told that Willie Mullins, who farms this race, is sweet on Day Of A Lifetime (14.0. It always is for the Irish at Chelters, isn’t it? TODAY'S BETS: WIN-40 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place PETITFOUR (1.30 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place SUMMIT MEETING and 1pt win on each FINIANS RAINBOW and RITE OF PASSAGE (2.05 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts LONG RUN and 5pts win PUNCHESTOWNS (2.40 Cheltenham) BET 4pts win KALAHARI KING (3.20 Cheltenham), 6.2 taken ante-post. WIN-100 JACKPOT BET: 5.5pts win and 2.5pts place SILK AFFAIR, and 1pt win on each JAMES DE VASSY and QUANTITAVEEASING (4.00 Cheltenham) BET 5.5pts win SANCTUAIRE and 4pts win HUNTERVIEW (4.40 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place DAY OF A LIFETIME (5.15 Cheltenham)
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IRELAND'S EYE on Wednesday

2010-03-17T09:38:18+00:00

Wednesday 17 March

IRELAND'S EYE

Four winners on the opening day of the Festival ensured that we got off to a flying start. Quevega (2-6/4) fairly bolted home in the concluding mares hurdle while three savers Sizing Europe (13/2-6/1), Champion hurdle winner Binocular (9/1) and Cross Country victor A New Story (25/1) made it a highly profitable day for the team. In addition our sole lay Captain Cee Bee (5/2 – 8th) failed to fire in the Arkle while another of our selections Bensalem (6/1) toppled when travelling well in the William Hill chase.

Today we will forsake the lure of the Irish meets at Down Royal and Wexford and the Huntingdon card to concentrate on the major events at Cheltenham where an Irish trained handicapper (22.5 on the DAQ) can land a competitive handicap hurdle and the Henderson team can gain further glory in the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase on Day 2.

1-30 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE 4m

A race which surprisingly boasts a modest record for favourites and three against the field are the ex John Berry trained Abbeyraney who will be suited by the step up in trip; dual chase winner Any Currency and recent front running chase winner Fabalu who should could appreciate the better ground (beat recent chase winner The Midnight Club in point). However a narrow vote goes to the talented if quirky Venetia Williams trained MOBAASHER who invariably runs well here and has ground to suit.

2-05 NEPTUNE NOVICE HURDLE – 2m 5f

This contest has gone to the Irish three times in the last 4 years with Willie Mullins taking the last two. His charge here Quel Esprit is a horse of some potential but he could be unsuited by easier ground but we will side with another Overseas challenger in the Jessica Harrington trained 5yo SUMMIT MEETING who can land his third hurdle on the fastest ground that he has encountered to date. His biggest threat can come from the former pointer and unbeaten Peddlers Cross (Donald McCain) while another promising sort who can make his presence felt is the Nicky Henderson trained Finian’s Rainbow.

2-40 RSA CHASE – 3m 110yds

In what looks a very strong renewal but the Henderson yard hold a particularly strong hand and former top hurdler PUNCHESTOWNS can keep his unbeaten record over fences intact and he could hold too many guns for another unbeaten chaser and course winner Diamond Harry and the Charles Byrne runner Weapon’s Amnesty.

3-20 QUEEN MOTHER CHASE – 2m

MASTER MINDED put up a scintillating performance when landing this race for the first time in 2008 and though Paul Nicholls 7yo has had his training problems this year he was back to his brilliant best in the Game Spirit last time and the Ruby Walsh ridden gelding can make it 3 in a row with Ferdy Murphys Kalahari King looking the obvious danger with drying ground riding in his favour.

4-00 CORAL CUP – 2m 5f

One of the traditionally toughest handicaps of the 4 days. On Raglan Road returns from a lengthy break following injury and the Howard Johnson trained 7yo boasts decent form at a higher level and looks well treated on his handicap bow. However the interesting one near the foot of the handicap is one of Willie Mullins runners Hampshire Gale who made a mockery of his handicap mark when scoring in an ordinary hurdle over a month ago. The Paul Townend ridden gelding (22.3 on the DAQ) represents excellent value in a race in which the Irish have a decent record.

4-40 FRED WINTER hurdle – 2m 110yds

Not one of the races that inspire confidence as most of these are very unexposed. A chance is taken with the recent Necastle winner Stormy Weather – rated 98 on the flat and showed fair form on better ground who opened his account over hurdles at second attempt on heavy. Faster ground could bring about the necessary improvement in the ex French trained runner and he can account for another French bred in Sanctuaire who won in fine style at Taunton. Others to consider are Brian Ellisons unbeaten hurdler Bothy and Kudu Country.

5-15 WEATHERBY BUMPER – 2m 110yds

A strong revival and a race in which the Irish will hope to be in clover once again on St Patricks day. This year sees a wide open affair and the one that gets our nod is the Edward O’Grady trained From The Hip who has been impressive in both starts to date and he can beat another Irish runner in Tavern Times. Former Irish trained ex pointer Al Ferof can make up the placings for the Nicholls yard.

ADVICE
BET 4pt win MOBAASHER 1-30 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win/1pt win (savers) ABBEYRANEY and FABALU 1-30 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win SUMMIT MEETING 2-05 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win (savers) PEDDLERS CROSS and FINIANS RAINBOW 2-05 Cheltenham
BET 5pt win (nap) PUNCHESTOWNS 2-40 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win MASTER MINDED 3-20 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win (saver) KALAHARI KING 3-20 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win/1pt place HAMPSHIRE GALE 4-00 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win (saver) ON RAGLAN ROAD 4-00 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win STORMY WEATHER 4-40 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win/1pt win (savers) SANCTUAIRE and KUDU COUNTRY 4-40 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win FROM THE HIP 5-15 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win/1pt win (saver) TAVERN TIMES and AL FEROF 5-15 Cheltenham

IRELAND'S EYE on Tuesday

2010-03-16T11:22:08+00:00

Tuesday 16 March

IRELAND'S EYE

The day of reckoning is upon us and with all roads leading to Cheltenham we will be giving a race by race analysis on Day 1 of the greatest Festival on earth. We will be unearthing the best value on the DAQ and there is certainly plenty of that as there are several big value wagers on the card today – both for win and place backers. We have value bets on the DAQ today at 14.5, 9.0, 7.4 and 62.0 and there is also plenty of value bets in the place markets.

We failed to get on the score sheet yesterday with three of our selections filling the dreaded ‘second berth’. West With The Wind (11/4-9/4), Count Boris (15/8-5/4) and nap Rockwithacaveman (5/6-8/13) all finished runner up while Penny Doc (5-4/1) flattered to deceive till nailed late in the hunter chase at Stratford.

1-30 SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE – 2m 1/2f

The Irish roar should reverberate around the Cotswolds as the Emerald Ireland ‘banker’ DUNGUIB is take to storm up the hill clear of his field here but the value bet is to side with Willie Mullins BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN despite his lack of hurdles experience but the Ruby Walsh ridden 5yo can prove the best win and place alternative.

2-05 ARKLE CHASE – 2m

This has been billed as an English/Irish head to head between warm favourite Captain Cee Bee (Edward Harty) and Somersby (Henrietta Knight) but both are less than certain in the jumping stakes and SPORTS LINE who has tended to be keen in the past is tipped in the hope that Ruby Walsh can produce the Willie Mullins trained late to beat Sizing Europe with Emma Lavelles promising Kangaroo Court looking the best place value.

2-40 WILLIAM HILL hc chase – 3m 1/2f

Novices off lower weights boast the most successful record here and the one that gets our nod despite the fact that he has not proved a total natural is the Alan King trained BENSALEM who should appreciate this trip/ground as the 7yo looks to be on a decent mark. Three time chase winner Exmoor Ranger was going well when falling in the Jewson here last year and the 8yo could prove the main danger.

3-20 Champion Hurdle – 2m 1/2f

A fascinating renewal with more questions than answers regarding all the main contenders but though last years race has suffered several knocks in the interim it may prove profitable to ignore those stats and the tentative selection is the reigning champion PUNJABI who will never be popular with punters but the Nicky Henderson runner could set up a 1-2 for the yard with last years hot favourite and close third taken to chase him home once again. Sabrina Hartys One In The Dark comes here in better fettle than last year and with ground to suit the 6yo could run a big rate at long odds.

4-00 CROSS COUNTRY CHASE – 3m 7f

Though it is rarely wise to back horses who are ‘winner rostrum shy’ it is difficult to overlook the claims of the Henry De Bromhead trained SIZING AUSTRALIA who has had to give best to Garde Champetre (chasing three timer in this event) on two occasions in course and distance events in this unique test but at the weights the Andrew Lynch ridden 8yo can finally ‘break his duck’ on a course where he invariably runs well. Michael Hourigans veteran A New Story can provide a decent place bet at a more generous price.

4-40 DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE – 2m 4f

QUEVEGA comes with some ‘health warnings’ following her injury in France last year but her trainer has been issuing more upbeat reports of late and the Ruby Walsh ridden 6yo can land this contest for the second year running with some doubts about her main danger and now favourite Voler La Vedette over the trip despite the fact that she won over the trip at Leopardstown. The Emma Lavelle trained Easter Legend and Nicky Hendersons dual hurdle winner Caroles Legacy look the best of the home brigade.

ADVICE
BET 2pt win/2pt place BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN 1-30 Cheltenham
BET 3pt win SPORTS LINE 2-05 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win (saver) SIZING EUROPE 2-05 Cheltenham
BET 1pt win/1pt place KANGAROO COURT 2-05 Cheltenham
BET lay CAPTAIN CEE BEE to win 5pt 2-05 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win BENSALEM 2-40 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win (saver) EXMOOR RANGER 2-40 Cheltenham
BET 3pt win PUNJABI 3-20 Cheltenham
BET 2pt win (saver) BINOCULAR 3-20 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win (nap) SIZING AUSTRALIA 4-00 Cheltenham
BET 1pt place (saver) A NEW STORY 4-00 Cheltenham
BET 4pt win QUEVEGA 4-40 Cheltenham
BET 1pt win/1pt place EASTER LEGEND

DAQMAN on Tuesday

2010-03-16T10:41:13+00:00


Tuesday 16 March DAQMAN FESTIVAL OF DREAMS: Back the winners. Beat the favourites. Make a profit. They’re the ingredients of every punter’s dream which Betdaq tipster Daqman brings to reality year after year at the greatest meeting of them all, Cheltenham. Here’s his dream record. 12 CHELTENHAM FAVOURITES FLOORED: Cheltenham hot-pots face the Daqman curse. He has successfully laid six out of six at each of the last two festivals, all morning favourites. 83 POINTS PROFIT: At the end of the four days last year, he had made a profit of 83 points, with winners at 8-1, 7-1, 6-1 and 5-1 and a huge ante-post 6.0 on Kauto Star, hero of the Gold Cup. GO FOR JACKPOT WINNINGS WITH BETDAQ: Daqman opens the big meeting in jackpot mood and explains why you’ll get more festival fever with Betdaq: he finds each-way bets at 21.0 and 14.5 and back-and-lay offers at 32.0 and 26.0 Go Flat Out for a fast buck on your first back-and-lay of the Cheltenham Festival at a massive 26.0 on Betdaq in the opening contest of the opening day, then play cat and electronic mouse, looking to stalk this prominent racer until his running style forces offers down to single figures. Back the favourite Dunguib as he eases before the ‘off’ and is left behind by the early cavalry charge, then stalk him, too, waiting for his dash from the back to make him long odds on for a lay at the business end. While bookmaker punters can only sit and watch and suffer, you can take part, Betdaq style, in every nerve-wracking moment of the greatest racing show on earth. Make no mistake, the first race will give you that: these novices are serious animals; winners in the last two years are favourites on the same card today for the Arkle and the Champion Chase. 1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): The Irish are six out of eight here. Only Paul Nicholls and Howard Johnson have intervened between three straight winning Irish favourites, notably Brave Inca, and three ‘unexpected’ Irish winners in the last three years at 40-1, 12-1 and 17-2. I have ‘unexpected’ in quotes because I’ve never known an Irish winner go unbacked; there is no dictionary definition for it. But Dunguib could ease before the ‘off’ as bookies try to ‘get’ the first day favourite, and he may drift even further with his hold-up style as the cavalry leave him behind. So you could have a choice of lay and back or back and lay. But I’ve seen this heat run like drag racing, full throttle, when it’s been impossible to come off the pace, and I’m not punning when I say that Flat Out showed himself ideal for this in his only hurdles start, running with the pace and then finding more. He made mistakes but still found some foot after them: that’s the mark of a good horse. I like him over Blackstairmountain because he’s beaten winners and is better bred for stamina though ‘Mountain’ men may argue that theirs has stopped 62 others in his last four starts and this big field will hold no terrors. Both Ronaldo Des Mottes and Yetholm have devalued Get Me Out Of Here and Oscar Whisky has been similarly let down by runners-up in his races though trainer Nicky Henderson knows the collateral form through many other novices he’s run this season, including Lush Life which beat Menorah. 2.05 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy): Captain Cee Bee was too old to win the opener two years ago - but he did - and he’s too old for this one: only one aged nine has won since 1957. Though he continues to defy the stats and is well enough at home on a sounder surface, he shouldn’t be expected to win a race containing improvers like Somersby, three years his junior and improving like a Gold Cup horse in the manner of, and in the same horsemen’s hands as, Best Mate. Like Best Mate, he was placed in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. He really looked to have ‘got himself together’ at Sandown in December, his absence since being the only worry. Oddly enough, the ‘Captain’ has had his reputation boosted this season by a fall: he might otherwise have beaten Sizing Europe at Leopardstown. But again, please note, we’re talking about a comparative old-timer: Sizing Europe is eight. Woolcombe Folly has done everything wanted of him on flat tracks but, as a son of champion sire Presenting out of a stamina-inducing Strong Gale mare, hasn’t looked at home on them and should like the undulations and the gruelling uphill finish, and the better going. Sports Line is excitable and also has to prove that he acts on the ground but the same sire’s Newmill won the Champion Chase here on a sound surface; Riverside Theatre hasn’t beaten much but has jumped and traveled superbly. They are the right age to present serious threats to Somersby; again this race looks very solid, and the winner will deserve the Arkle mantle. Tony McCoy describes it as ‘the best renewal I can remember’ and says it will be a ‘close call and not much room for error’. That’s when you need the ‘overs’ (we got them with 6.6 Somersby) and when you lay the favourite and sweat it out; it’s another dynamic Daq race. 2.40 Cheltenham (William Hill Trophy): This is not a race in which to carry weight or years (look at the archive of my stats yesterday) - you need a young horse with less than 11st – and the window of opportunity has not been lost on gambling connections, David Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill and Tony Martin having won fortunes from the ring with winners aged seven and eight off 10-9 to 10-12 starting 5-1 and 7-1 (twice) in the last four years. Pipe has not hidden his belief in The Package and this one certainly is the right package - aged seven and with 10st 9lb - and, in what may also with hindsight be a clever feat of training, Jonjo, too, has maneouvred one into the perfect slot: Theatrical Moment (aged seven and with 10-10) though deputy dawg McCoy – replacing the injured Noel Fehily – thinks the gelding will have to improve an awful lot. Snag for Pipe fans is that The Package is a bit of a glass horse – doesn’t stand much training – and being fresh (he hasn’t raced this year) has never won for him in the past; moreover, he’s penalized to his highest rating yet for a big handicap win in which the form hasn’t worked out. Ogee and Bensalem have similar profiles; winners in very small fields. Both look nicely plotted but, as a Turtle Island, Bensalem surely needs rain. He’s not a great jumper - in three of his last Racing Post form comments in small fields, we read: ‘not always fluent’, ‘not fluent 7th’ and ‘blundered 14th’ – and will not get a clear sight of his fences in a field this big. With 23 others nudging him, it’s a wink-wink to lay the market leader. There have been only two winning favourites in 30 years. I prefer his stablemate, Nenuphar Collonges (26.0), third in the race last year and put by for another crack at it since failing to stay in the Hennessy. Casey Jones has also been kept fresh for this, after finishing well in the RSA last year. Though Razor Royale is weighted higher than the stats allow, he has in fact the same ratings mark as Antonin (1994), who also won the Racing Post Chase on the way to winning this. He has easily the best current form in the race and is great Betdaq value at 21.0, with built-in risk factor because he’d prefer softer ground. 3.20 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle): Only one favourite has won since the days of Istabraq’s domination, with SPs of 33-1, 22-1, 16-1 and 10-1 in the last six years. But, if it goes to form, it’s not so open this time. Last year’s 1-2-3 of Punjabi, Celestial Halo and Binocular are back; they were separated a neck and a head, then, and I was taught that, when they’re ‘all in a heap,’ to look elsewhere, though any one of the three could have improved; they’re still young enough, and horses aged eight and nine have won four times this century. Punters don’t want to believe the form of eight-year-old Khyber Kim, who easily beat Celestial Halo, Medermit and Punjabi at Cheltenham in December, and have the last two named in front of him in the market. They also wanted to believe that there was a fluke about Go Native’s defeat of Sublimity, Solwhit, Won In The Dark and Binocular in the Fighting Fifth but he had Davy Condon looking round for dangers when he subsequently beat Starluck and Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. Go Native, with his preference for top of the ground, has everything going for him: overall form, the going and his track record, as Supreme Novices Hurdle winner last year from Medermit and Somersby. It could be a great day today for that particular race but stats anoraks will tell you that only one winner of it – Bula (1970) – has gone on to win this. Horses get beaten, and the ante-post markets swing like a Gallup Poll, but come the day and the very best are at their very best, or should be, so.. In the belief that either, or both of, Binocular and Solwhit are over their setbacks, I shall dutch them to win; they’re both trading around 8.7 this morning. Go Native is the saver. 4.00 Cheltenham (Cross Country Chase): Garde Champetre, with Nina Carberry going for a four-timer in this, is now fully exposed, having given 22lb and a beating to Sizing Australia here in December, and earlier stopped Headsontheground at a difference of 12lb. Though the handicapper has widened the gap to 24lb and 27lb respectively, it may not be enough. Double Dizzy at 32.0 is your bet and lay; he always comes running into the thick of it; and he always back-pedals, not doing so until the last fence when eight lengths behind Garde Champetre on the same tems over CD in December. Wow! That 32.0 could be nearer 1.32 in running near the final fence. Another Jewel is the one weighted to spoil the party for the favourite: he took to the banks at Punchestown; he’s a young improver, bred for stamina and with the bonus of Davy Condon on board, not to mention star Betdaq value at 14.5 this morning. 4.40 Cheltenham (Mares Hurdle): David Nicholson is remembered here: for a trainer who was allergic to horses, he didn’t do too badly at this, his local course, winning the Gold Cup, Champion Chase, Stayers’ Hurdle, Triumph, Sun Alliance Hurdle and Arkle. The ‘Duke’ never stopped trying and liked tough horses that never stopped trying. If he were here now, he would be on Easter Legend, who didn’t let the little matter of losing her front shoes stop her so nearly getting up at Ascot. She’s 21.0 as I write but could be even bigger in running as she got behind in her races under both Jack Doyle and Ruby Walsh. The ‘Duke’ would probably say to Aidan Coleman: ‘I’ve done my bit; now you do yours.’ Emma Lavelle has certainly done her bit with the horse and her yard is in great form. The Racing Post’s future ratings have Easter Legend in the short-list six, despite an official rating way below Voler La Vedette and Quevega. It’s hard to oppose Quevega, who won this last year pulling the pub-outing bus, and was then not disgraced behind Solwhit and Punjabi at Punchestown. Voler La Vedette has it to prove in this company but is being well backed this morning to do so. TODAY'S BETS WIN-100 JACKPOT BET: 4pts in and 1pt place FLAT OUT plus BET 5pts win DUNGUIB (1.30 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts CAPTAIN CEE BEE and already BET ante-post 4pts win SOMERSBY at 6.6 (2.05 Cheltenham) LAY to win 10pts BENSALEM and WIN-50 JACKPOT BET: 3pts win and 1pt place RAZOR ROYALE plus 4pts win THE PACKAGE and 1pt win and place NENUPHAR COLLONGES (2.40 Cheltenham) DUTCH BET: 4pts win on each BINOCULAR and SOLWHIT and 2pts win (saver) GO NATIVE (3.20 Cheltenham) WIN-50 JACKPOT: 4pts win and 2pts place ANOTHER JEWEL and 4pts win GARDE CHAMPETERE (4.00 Cheltenham) WIN-40 JACKPOT: 2pts win and 2pts place EASTER LEGEND plus 6pts win QUEVEGA (4.40 Cheltenham)
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DAQMAN on Monday

2010-03-15T11:14:33+00:00


Monday 15 March DAQMAN DAQMAN KING OF CHELTENHAM: Starting tomorrow, the greatest jumps-racing show on earth gives every punter a jackpot chance of finding the Cheltenham champions at value Betdaq offers. And the man to find them for you is Daqman. UNBEATEN LAYS SEQUENCE: Daqman, who’s record sequence of lays is 16 in a row, has 100% record at the last two Cheltenham Festivals. He’s currently in form with three on the trot. 22 FESTIVAL WINS IN 2009: Last year he capped an amazing 22 winning bets at the Festival with two big winners on the Saturday and took his total profits by the end of the week to more than 90 points. THE BEST RACES TO BET IN: Today he analyses past Cheltenham results and brings you the ‘do’ and the ‘don’t’ rules of the meeting, with who’ll win and who won’t, and your guide to the best races to bet in. Back-And Lay: Start using all the Betdaq facilities from day one. In tomorrow’s Supreme Novices Hurdle, find a keen sort that won last time out. You need some big offers so you can back it to lay during the race, hoping it hangs on until the top of the hill to force a wide odds margin between the bets so that you make a profit whether the horse wins or loses. Follow the In-Running Guides on the Betdaq Extra home page and my daily back-and-lay suggestions. Champion Stats Busters: The stats I am listing here generally hold good; only real champions can beat the stats. Kauto Star, for instance, as the first horse to regain the Gold Cup, or Master Minded, as the first five-year-old winner of the Champion Chase. The Main Course: Cheltenham is a law unto itself; ability on the course is the main asset of any contender. Some 40% of all Festival winners had already been placed at previous festivals on the course; 52% had been placed at one or other Cheltenham meeting in the previous three seasons. Around 80% of Champion Hurdle winners had already won at a Cheltenham meeting and 80% of Champion Chase winners had been placed at the festival before. Four-Day Diet Or One Big Feast: Unless you are determined on one big hit, don’t forget there are four betting days. Just as you have to judge the shape of a race, you have to look at the overall meeting and decide: where do I do best and what looks like a race to get involved in? Then decide how to spread your bank over the meeting. Favourites Or Outsiders: Only two races out of 25 were won by the favourite in wet conditions in 2008 but, on good to soft, two had already won in 2009 by the end of the opening day; there were three in a row on the second day but only Kauto Star beat the layers after that. With an overall favourites’ strike rate of only around 16%, better a layer than a backer be. The Champion Hurdle used to be a top race for favourites but four of the last six winners have started 33-1, 22-1, 16-1 and 10-1 with backers determined to stick to the older, tried performers to their cost. Best race for favourites is the Champion Chase; it goes to horses under 5-1 some 90% of the time. The Coral Cup and the National Hunt Chase are best for outsiders. Form Horses Are Going To Win: There are fewer shock results when the ground is good and form is the main ingredient for winner-finding. A total of 32 of the last 35 RSA Chase winners had finished first or second last time out. The last 22 winners of the World Hurdle all finished in the first four on their latest start, and 15 of the last 17 Champion Bumper winners scored in their previous race. Key races for festival winners are, in order of merit, the King George, the Tingle Creek and the Racing Post chases. Recent form is essential - more than 85% of festival winners had raced between Boxing Day and the day of their race – but consistency and depth of form, too, is important: all bar one Gold Cup winner this century had raced before Christmas; and, going right back into their history, seven had started their careers in Irish point-to-points. Gravy Trainers: Paul Nicholls has been leading trainer for the past four festivals and has been vanquished only once in six seasons but he still has a long way to go to catch Nicky Henderson overall; Nicky leads him by 34 winners to 25, with Edward O’Grady the leading Irish trainer on 18, with two more Irishmen close behind (Jonjo O’Neill 16, Willie Mullins 15). Some stables ‘farm’ particular races: Jonjo has had five wins in the National Hunt Chase. Enda Bolger has had four wins in the first five runnings of the cross-country race. Greatest Gold Cup training feats have been by Michael Dickinson (first five home in 1983) and Paul Nicholls (four of first five in 2009). Nicholls and Henderson remain as dominant as the great rivals Fulke Walwyn (40 wins up to 1986), Fred Winter (28 up to 1988) and, for Ireland, Tom Dreaper (26 up to 1971). Jockey Pageant: We are currently blessed with two of the greatest jumps jockeys of all time, Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh, who last year overtook McCoy as current leading festival jockey after an unprecedented seven 2009 victories, taking him to 24 overall against McCoy’s 21 and Barry Geraghty’s 16. Walsh needs one more this week to equal the all-time record set by Arkle’s famous rider, Pat Taaffe. Richard Dunwoody still holds third place with 18. After all these years, Fred Winter is still riding high on the list with 17. Irish Ayes And Noes: Following the Irish brings a hatful of regular winners but means avoiding some races: no Irish-trained horse has won the World Hurdle for 15 years; they’ve now gone eight seasons without a Triumph Hurdle winner; there has been no Irish Kim Muir winner for 27 years. But the Champion Bumper belongs to them: they’ve won 14 out of 17 (Willie Mullins six). Betdaq Special Bets: Now check out Betdaq Cheltenham Festival Special Bets for trading on top trainers, jockeys and Irish winners. Handicaps Are No Such Thing: Steer clear of handicaps is an old punting adage, based on their being framed so that, in theory, all the horses dead-heat. But, in fact, Cheltenham festival handicaps are no handicap to success; the stats reveal that horses just can’t carry big weights at suicide speed round this helter-skelter track. Around 85% of handicap winners at the festival carry 11st or lower. For example, in the William Hill Trophy, you won’t find a winner this century that was saddled with more than 10st 12lb. but, as I write, 14 horses are out of the handicap. So it is that, taking only those in mid-handicap, you are left with, at most (I’m sure you can eliminate more of them) 24 horses from the 55 decs. If that’s where the winner comes from, it stands to reason that prices and offers for horses in that area of the race are better value. Old Winning System: Keep young horses on your side in steeplechases. This is a track for speed, particularly this year when the surface is dry. Jumpers largely lose their zip as they reach a double-figure age. For instance, in that William Hill Trophy, there has been only one winner over the age of nine since last century. The exception to the rule is the stayers’ race; as in the Grand National, older and more experienced horses do best. For instance, in the four-mile National Hunt Chase a total of 60 horses aged five and six have been beaten since 1989. The exception to the rule was last year’s winner, Tricky Trickster (aged six) in a promising run with this year’s Aintree in mind. The same thing applies to hurdles: young horses for shorter distances, older horses for staying races. For instance, the Pertemps Final winners this century have all been aged six to nine; only one five-year-old has won in 35 years, though some have started favourite. Opening Gambit: Many bookmakers will want to ‘get’ Dunguib in the very first race to set themselves up for the meeting. Additionally, he’s a rear runner, so looks sure to get behind in the early cavalry charge. Those are two good reasons to lay him at odds on today and back him when the price eases near the ‘off’ or when he gives the others a start in running. Winners last time out which have raced more than once and come from the front of the market account for 65% of winners of novice hurdles at the Festival: some 83% of winners had a strike rate of 50% or better and 73% had run three times. The Getting-Out Stakes: No winner this century of the Grand Annual, final race on Friday’s card, has carried more than 10st 11lb. Only one favourite has won in eight seasons but five winners out of seven have come in the narrow SP band of 6-1 to 8-1 and five out of eight were rated in an even tighter parameter of between 143 and 145 by the Racing Post. The Last Resort: My Petra was only just run out of it in the 2008 Grand Annual but got it all wrong last year when she was in season. So keen is Nicky Henderson on her chances this year – after bringing her back to form with a second at Doncaster last time – that, to avoid the same situation this week, he picked a stallion for her and she’s been put into foal. My Petra runs on Thursday, and mother and baby should do well.. Next Year: Al have an early pound for 2011 about an Ian Williams’ Irish-bred who has landed four races in a row, two chases already at Cheltenham. Such a shame Weird Al has to miss this year. Good luck to all Betdaq backers and layers. MONDAY'S BETS BET 4pts win SUMDANCER and 1pt win QUATRE HUIT (3.30 Plumpton) BET 3pts win QUEDILLAC (5.00 Plumpton) BET 3pts win on each LEPIDO and REBEL DANCER (5.20 Taunton) DAQ MULTIPLES: BET 2pts win double Super Kenny (2.10 Stratford) and My Old Piano (4.10 Stratford) and 1pt win double SUMDANCER (3.30 Plumpton) and REBEL DANCER (5.20 Taunton)
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IRELAND'S EYE on Monday

2010-03-15T10:59:40+00:00

Monday 15 March

IRELAND'S EYE

One would have expected that we would have a quiet Monday in preparation for the impending battle which starts tomorrow but none of it as we are faced with three interesting jump meetings at Stratford, Taunton and Plumpton. Though none of our selections today will be anything like the prices of many of the victors at Cheltenham this week we nevertheless hope to add to our tank with two short priced favourites in hunter chases at Stratford and Taunton while an Evan Williams trained runner can beat some more fancied rivals in an open novice chase over an extended two miles at the latter venue.

There are no signs of our fine run abating as we notched another good priced brace of winners yesterday with Vintage Oak (8-7/1) landing a competitive Navan handicap hurdle while saver Inistioge (7/2-10/3) took her second chase at Limerick. Also saver Brownpolish (7-13/2) finished a good third while in our back up service Acapulco (3/1) just went down in a Navan novice hurdle while our second best Morning Supreme (1/2) took a mares novice hurdle at Limerick with our choice For Bill (7/2) back in third.

The 2-50 at Taunton – a 2m 1/2f novice chase this afternoon looks an interesting betting contest with all but one of the five runners holding winning prospects. Local trainer Paul Nicholls charge the four time hurdle winner Lady And Co probably will go off favourite on her second start in Britain having shown promise when placed in Graded chase company in her Native France. However it could pay to oppose the 5yo mare and the one that gets the vote is the Evan Williams trained West With The Wind who finished with a flourish when beaten less than a length by the warm favourite Acordeon at Ludlow. Though possibly flattered by that effort the 121 rated dual hurdle winner is suited by better ground and though he disappointed over hurdles on most recent effort the Paul Moloney ridden 5yo can beat the more experienced Henry Daly trained Rockiteer who has been beaten some way on his three chase starts to date but the son of Rudimentary boasts a decent track record having landed a 2m 4f novice hurdle and finishing a close third on his bumper debut.

Former Irish trained pointer/hurdler Penny Doc will be fancied to follow up his Folkestone hunter chase victory in a similar 2m 7f event at Stratford today at 4-10 but he faces a couple of couple of promising and progressive English pointers/hunter chasers in My Old Piano and Just Talking. Though the York runner made hard enough work of landing his maiden hunter chase over 2m 5f on soft ground 12 days ago better ground here should bring about the necessary improvement in the 9yo who was just touched off by Christies hopeful Rudi Trucker in the Tetratema Cup at Gowran last year. My Old Piano may not have been anything special on the track previously but the David Easterby trained 8yo has seemed to find his true vocation in points and he made a fine winning hunter chase debut at Leicester less than a fortnight ago when easily accounting for a decent pointer. Another promising pointer who can play a leading role is the former Irish pointer Just Talking who has landed five of his six points since joining his present yard though the 8yo showed little when tried over fences in the past.

Polly Gundry is one of the more accomplished lady riders on the British point to point scene and the champion rider can land the 2m 7 1/2f hunter chase at Taunton today at 4-50 with the relatively unexposed Rockwithacaveman. A nine time winner in points the 8yo has run in three hunter chases to date and though the Old Vic gelding has not shown that much to date he did nevertheless finish runner up to Le Duc over 3m 3f on good to fast ground last year at Newton Abbot and was not beaten that far in his other starts. Having failed to land favouritism in a point on his seasonal bow a month ago against a former useful chaser he should be spot on for this assignment and he can open his account in this sphere in what looks a highly winnable affair.

It is going to be a big week for Harry Findlay and though the colourful gambler may not be too bullish about his prospects of a second Gold Cup victory for his star Denman on Friday he could have reasons to celebrate following the 3m 1 1/2f hc hurdle at Plumpton today at 5-00.

In what is a modest contest he can land this Class 4 event with the former Irish pointer Quedillac. Though the 6yo took 8 pops before finally opening his account ‘between the flags’ at Dawstown some ten months ago the consistent sort ran creditably against some fair types and more importantly the prominent running type has shown a decent level of form since joining the Tim Vaughan yard. The son of Clerkenwell has filled third berth on all starts to date on better ground, including two bumpers and his last couple of efforts stepped up in trip have been quite encouraging and with another step up in distance here the Dean Coleman ridden gelding can make most to land the spoils here on his seasonal and handicap hurdle debut at the expense of another consistent sort in the more exposed hurdler (15 runs) and flat winner Count Boris who has the benefit of match fitness with three runs under his belt this term already.

CHELTENHAM PREVIEW (continued)

1-30 WEDNESDAY – 4m National Hunt chase

This all about jumping and the ex John Berry trained ABBEYRANEY will be ideally suited by this test having beaten a decent sort in the Hollinwell (gave 6lbs) at Hexham to finally open his chase account at Hexham over three months ago. Former English and Irish pointer Giles Cross and Fabalu lok the best placed options.

2-05 – 2m 5f novice hurdle

The Irish will be fancied to land this contest for the fifth time in 10 years with Rite Of Passage and Enterprise Park looking their main hopes but they face stiff opposition from the home team in the unbeaten former Irish pointer PEDDLERS CROSS and another ex Irish pointer in Finian’s Rainbow with a marginal preference for the former from the McCain yard.

4-00 – Coral Cup 2m 5f hc hurdle

One of the races that the professionals swerve and in another very open renewal we will side with a long priced fancy in the former useful Irish point to pointer ON RAGLAN ROAD from the Howard Johnson yard despite the fact that the 7yo has not been seen since falling at Aintree last April in a Grade 1 hurdle. Nicky Hendersons Quantitiativeeasing and Irish challenger Mourad are others to consider.

ADVICE
BET 4pt win WEST WITH THE WIND 2-50 Taunton
BET 2pt win (saver) ROCKITEER 2-50 Taunton
BET 4pt win PENNY DOC 4-10 Stratford
BET 2pt win (saver) MY OLD PIANO 4-10 Stratford
BET 5pt win ROCKWITHACAVEMAN 4-50 Taunton
BET 4pt win (nap) QUEDILLAC 5-00 Plumpton
BET 2pt win (saver) COUNT BORIS 5-00 Plumpton