BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

2026-06-08T15:33:49.719-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -1.2%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.9 -.1%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 +2.0 basis points
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.25 +7.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.4 +.4%
Emerging Market CDS Index 151.5 -.2%
Israel Sovereign CDS 54.8 -1.3%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.2
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 -1.0

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.5 -.7

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.2 +1.3

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.2 +.3
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +27.9% -.1 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.05 +.80: Growth Rate +23.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.4
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 898.61 +4.60: Growth Rate +73.3% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.8
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -28.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 39.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 183.0 +.3%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.6% -.1 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.55% +2.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +3.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 85.8% (+.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 57.3%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,720 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -165 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

2026-06-08T15:04:33.871-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Utilities -1.7% 2) Electrification -1.4% 3) Insurance -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

TEL, ALNY, NEXA, AMLX, BKD, MLYS, VSAT, WAY, SA, TTAN, AMRZ, OCS, CLF, CIEN, DXYZ, GHRS, ANDG, GWRE, SHAZ, APAM, KB, PRAA, JBIO, DRUG, ENSG, TLK, FCEL, AGX, TOYO and BRC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) NFE 2) NNDM 3) IRDM 4) OPTU 5) HLT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) FCEL 2) ENSG 3) CHKP 4) ADCT 5) WIX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) IGV 2) XLP 3) SMH 4) XLV 5) XLE

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-06-08T14:56:30.622-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Semis +6.4% 2) AI Innovation +5.5% 3) Oil Service +3.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

TNGX, GLXY, ALOY, MRVL, AAOI, INTC, BOT, ZVRA, OCTV, OSCR, AIAI, MU, IDYA, ASST, SYNA, ADEA, PENG, CRDO, NNE, SRAD, CLYM, PI, RMBS, AMBA, FLNC, PRGO, ARCB, STM, ASML, TREX, ADTN, CXW, MRIX, ELF, BELFB, CEVA, CALY, INR, BBCP, AAP, CLB, CDE, GEO, PLAB, EBC, BTDR, INFQ, STRC, MYE, MEC, PLXS, EPAC, SOFI, SATA, LQDA and WSBC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) EQX 2) ABAT 3) GENI 4) IAG 5) GLXY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) TNGX 2) CLIK 3) OCC 4) MPAA 5) INTC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) DRAM 2) IYH 3) XLF 4) AIQ 5) ITA

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-06-08T13:57:28.709-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ASO)/.91
(SJM)/2.64
(SAIL)/.04
(UNFI)/.76

After the Close:

(CASY)/3.31
(CBRL)/-.48

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May is estimated to rise to 96.0 versus 95.9 in April.

8:30 am EST

Imports MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +2.3% gain in March.
Exports MoM for April is estimated to rise +2.6% versus a +2.0% gain in March.

10:00 am EST

Existing Home Sales for May is estimated to rise to 4.06M versus 4.02M in April.
Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for April.

Upcoming Splits

KLAC 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, 3Y T-Note auction, ADP Employment Change Weekly, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Mizuho Tech Conference, Goldman Healthcare Conference, BofA Financials Conference, Wells Fargo Industrials/Materials Conference, (BIIB) general meeting, (TJX) annual meeting, (FCFS) annual meeting, (MELI) annual meeting, (ULTA) annual meeting, (RBRK) analyst day, (ZS) investor meeting, (ETR) investor day, (CME) annual meeting, (NET) investor day, (CZR) annual meeting and the DA Davidson Tech/Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

2026-06-08T12:53:50.861-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -13.3% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.5 +1.8
3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
54.0% of Issues Advancing, 44.0% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.32 +78.4%
Non-Block Money Flow -$105.6M
70 New 52-Week Highs, 61 New Lows
52.4% (-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 54.6 -1.8

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% +1.0 percentage point
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 35.0% +2.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 17.0% +3.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 44.0% +9.0 percentage points
US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.1 +1.2%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 67.0 -24.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 85.0% -5.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 434.5 -2.0 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.9 +1.2%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 158.0 +1.2%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +1.0
1-Day Vix 13.4 -53.2%
Vix 18.6 -13.6%
Total Put/Call .86 -10.4%

Monday Watch

2026-06-07T22:21:08.261-04:00

Around X:

@Business

South Korean stocks dropped, led by steep losses in chipmaker shares on an intensifying rotation out of artificial intelligence beneficiaries.
Nvidia and SK Hynix have agreed to partner on designing future generations of memory chips for AI, a win for the South Korean leader in top-end semiconductors.
South Korea’s Naver agreed to build data centers based on Nvidia's models in a move to clinch its dominance in the country’s artificial intelligence landscape.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year due to a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Banks are gearing up for widespread job cuts due to AI and it's not just junior positions that are at risk.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@Zerohedge

Iran Fires Missiles At Israel In First Since April, After IDF Airstrike On Beirut; Trump Urges Israel To Hold Back.
'Everyone's Got A Plan 'Til They Get Punched In The Mouth': 3 Things Top Goldman Quant Learned On Friday.
The Shocking Impact Of Memory "Chipflation" On Soaring Producer Prices: A Morgan Stanley Deep Dive.
Second worst day ever for long beta momentum stocks
.
*
SK HYNIX, SAMSUNG PLUNGE MORE THAN 9% IN PRE-MARKET ON NEXTRADE
.
*TRUMP SAYS HE'S NOT HAPPY ABOUT ISRAEL'S INITIAL ATTACKS: FOX. *TRUMP TO FOX: ISRAEL'S EARLIER ATTACKS NOT COORDINATED WITH US. *TRUMP TO FOX: CLOSE TO A DEAL W/ IRAN AND NOW THIS TAKES PLACE
.
Scott Pelley says Bari Weiss asked 60 Minutes staffers: “Why do you think the country thinks you’re biased?" Pelley: "Why do you think so? Do you have a poll? Is there market research? What are you talking about?" "Because we certainly didn't believe that." Incredible. omg
.
New York Legislature Passes Data Center Moratorium
.
Angry Pentagon Sources Leak Report Of Israel's 'Unhinged' Spying On US Officials
.
100 Day Mark: Iran Threatens Renewed Attacks On US-Israeli Bases, Citing IDF Escalation In Lebanon.
*IRAN SAYS US CAN'T USE FROZEN ASSETS TO COMPENSATE ALLIES.
Hartnett: Brace For June Event Risk, And CPI Print That Could Pop The Bubble.
Choose One: Housing Is Shelter, Or Housing Is Just Another Asset In A Bubble Economy.
Playing The Broadening Trade & Hedging AI; Top Goldman Trader Sees 'No Rates Reprieve'.
BREAKING: Qatar has issued a NOTAM redirecting flights from its airspace and providing alternative routes for flights departing Doha and Saudi airports, effective from June 7 to June 14.
SpaceX is "crashing" on Hyperliquid - before it even lists on Nasdaq. What's happening: A crypto exchange called Hyperliquid let people bet on SpaceX's price BEFORE it goes public on June 12. Launched May 18 at $150. Peaked at $216. Today: $163 (down ~25% from peak). Actual IPO price: $135. These aren't real shares. They're synthetic bets settled in stablecoins. No voting rights. No ownership. Just a wager on the valuation. Not available to US users. (graph)
'I Could've Kept It That Way': Trump Admits The Inflation Is His Choice - For A War That 'Isn't A War'.
1/ They are neither committed to a ceasefire nor believe in dialogue, and by demonstrating through the naval blockade and violation of agreements regarding Lebanon that they only understand the language of power.
Americans' Average Monthly Mortgage Payment Tops $2000 For The First Time Ever.
We will deliver a decisive and painful response to the Zionist regime's attack on Dahiyeh. These rabid dogs must be disciplined and put back in their place. Look at the sky over the occupied lands tonight. Iran warns it will strike Israel.
Iran FM Blames U.S. "Contradictions" On Stalled Peace Talks As Tehran Slaps Million-Dollar Hormuz Tax On Ships.
UK Cop Fired For Questioning Islam In 'Safe Space'.
*TRUMP SAYS HE WANTS TO 'GO BIGGER ON THE MILITARY': NBC. *TRUMP TO NBC:COSTS VERY LITTLE TO KEEP TROOPS IN IRAN OPERATION.
*TRUMP TO NBC IF HE'D UNFREEZE IRAN ASSETS AS PART OF DEAL: NO. *TRUMP SAYS NO PLANS TO WITHDRAW US TROOPS FOR TIME BEING: NBC. *TRUMP SAYS WANTS MORE SURGICAL ISRAELI STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH:NBC.
Greater Fed Tightening Odds Force A Risk Appetite Reset.
Just intv’d Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei: His points: - “The main problem of negotiating with this administration is that you have to face so many changing positions, moving the goal posts, different statements, contradictory remarks by different officials, so it makes the whole process very cumbersome,” Baghaei said. - “Americans must understand that they have to recognize Iran’s rights,” including its right to peaceful nuclear enrichment under the international non-proliferation treaty.” - The US must “simply must stop their sanctions,” Baghaei told CNN. “As far as the sanctions and blocked assets are concerned, they simply need to let Iranian assets be released and be available for the Iranians.”
Most Teens Aren't Going To Social Media For Politics.
Lebanese Army Officers Among 9 Killed In Israeli Airstrike On South Lebanon.
Why mood in hedge funds is dismal: one either chases momentum (and risks a day like Friday and angry investors) or does the usual L/S thing and has the worst performance since 2023 (and angry investors). GS HF VIP less most short basket, a proxy for LS HFs, is getting steamrolled.
A Deep Dive Inside Friday's Market Meltdown: "When Delta Collapses Under Its Own Weight".

@CNBC

CNBC Daily Open: Washington's 'war of choice' extends past 100-day mark.
Oil prices rise after Iran fires missiles at Israel, escalating regional tensions.
Stock futures fall after Nasdaq rout as investors look ahead to SpaceX IPO: Live updates.
OPEC+ set for fourth oil quota hike since Strait of Hormuz closure, sources say.

@MarioNawful

BREAKING. Iranian MP & National Security Commission spokesperson Ebrahim Rezaei: “We will give a decisive and painful response to the Zionist regime’s attack on Dahiyeh. We must discipline these dogs and put them in their place. Tonight you will see the skies over the occupied territories.” Beirut was Iran’s red line and Israel didn't respect that....
The Pentagon espionage bombshell just got worse... New reporting confirms Israel has been eavesdropping on the American peace negotiators themselves. The targets named: Steve Witkoff, Trump's top negotiator with Iran. Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's policy chief. And Michael DiMino, who runs Middle East policy. Israel wasn't just collecting on America generally. It was listening to the specific men writing the deal Netanyahu opposes. What's wild is the documented incidents read like operations against an enemy state.
Tulsi Gabbard allegedly received the Israel critical threat report 18 days ago, and resigned three days later. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the report was deliberately slow-rolled until Section 224 passed the House, giving Israel unprecedented access to U.S. intelligence and defense technology. The U.S. just labeled Israel its most aggressive spy threat and handed them the keys to the vault the same week. "You just robbed the bank. Want to be the bank manager?" (video)
Trump to the Financial Times, minutes ago: Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran, because "I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn't call the shots." Trump also confirmed the leaked call in which he reportedly told Netanyahu: "You're fucking crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this." He did not dispute the characterization.
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel tonight… and the footage is straight out of a nightmare. The rockets are covered with satanic imagery, pentagrams, a horned devil figure, and explicit references to the “Epstein class.” They even painted religious declarations invoking “the God of Christ and Moses” while claiming to fight global corruption and usury. (video)

@WallStreetApes

Here we go, the Los Angeles Times is admitting that yes, tens of thousands of mail in ballots did get processed for only Mayor Karen Bass and Nithya Raman but it was “a glitch”. They say the system just “glitched” for a minute and didn’t process any ballots for Spencer Pratt but really there were ballots for Spencer, they just didn’t get processed during the “glitch”. No, we don’t believe you. This is fraud and Democrats are cheating. (video)

@Megatron_ron

BREAKING: Despite Trump warning to Netanyahu, Israel just started bombing Beirut.

@JodyChaseTN

TRENDING. Jimmy Dore just went OFF on Tucker Carlson’s show over what he calls the failed cover-up surrounding the Charlie Kirk assassination. The conversation is already getting people talking across social media. What are your thoughts on his take? (video)

@MJTruthUltra

IT’S TIME. SEND IN THE MILITARY! Spencer Pratt had nearly a 12+ point advantage over Nithya Raman the night of election. After several days of non-stop fraudulent mail-in ballots, the latest update tonight shows Spencer Pratt is now on track to finish in THIRD PLACE. There will be ZERO Republican choices in the November election. Los Angeles will only be given democrats to choose from California rigged it once again. (pic)

@Polymarket

JUST IN: Verizon CEO says the company’s new AI customer service agents scored "1,280 basis points" higher on customer satisfaction than humans.

@robbystarbuck

ChatGPT can’t find a single example of a 3rd place candidate surging, days AFTER Election Day, to overtake 2nd place. It couldn’t find 1 example in all of American history. That’s what’s happening with Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt. Los Angeles has 3rd world country elections.
Can anyone point me to a time where a third place candidate (3 days AFTER an election) suddenly has a surge where they start winning 1st place in every new drop by winning 40% of the votes in the batch? Try not to name a third world country. This is getting absolutely absurd. (video)

@EricLDaugh

OMG. President Trump CUTS OFF and WALKS OUT of a Kristen Welker interview He looks her in the eyes and tells her SHE'S A LIAR, then storms off! "The elections are like a 3rd world country. YOU'RE CROOKED...let's call it QUITS. I've HAD ENOUGH." WELKER: Please, I traveled all the way to Wisconsin! TRUMP: "I've sat in the RAIN with you for an HOUR! I've given you enough time. You ought to straighten out your press. You know what? A country can never be great with a dishonest press. Let's GO." WELKER: *Whines*. (video)
WOW! President Trump just said Israel BETTER NOT strike back against Iran, or the peace deal is SCREWED. He tells Axios: "If Bibi strikes them back it’s just gonna keep GOING like the last 47 years, or the last 3000 years!" "The Iranian strikes [on Israel] didn't hurt ANYBODY. Hopefully ISRAEL is not going to retaliate. "We are very close to a final deal with Iran. It is going to be a good deal. I don’t want it to blow up because of what is happening now!" 47 is CALLING Netanyahu, saying DON'T STRIKE! (video)
HOLY CRAP!! FA US Attorney Bill Essayli reveals not only is California BLOCKING a federal audit of the state's voter rolls......but people can vote with GYM MEMBERSHIP CARDS as proof of ID, along with insurance cards that can be given to illegal aliens. This HAS TO BE BANNED! California is STILL counting ballots, and a lot remain.

@DiligentDenizen

BASED @grok lays out why Section 224 about to pass the US House MERGING Israeli technology into US military critical infrastructure is a BAD IDEA. Israel has stolen our tech before and sold it to adversaries, including China. (video)

@ShaneCashman

There’s literally nothing weird about Thomas Matthew Crooks emailing a deputy from Butler, PA before the assassination attempt. It’s not weird that he practiced shooting at the same range Homeland Security used. It’s not weird that the local police and Secret Service spotted Crooks with a rangefinder, photographed him, and texted about him for over an hour and still let him climb the roof with a rifle. It’s not weird that the Secret Service wasn’t flying drones that day, but Crooks was. It’s not weird that Butler was the first Trump rally of the year with Secret Service anti-sniper agents on the roofs. It’s not weird that Crooks’ house looked like a sterile lab with no trash or silverware. And it’s not weird that his body was cremated ten days later before Congress could see it. This is like when people say the CIA was shadowing Oswald before he, and he alone, shot JFK.

@C_3C_3

Over the last 20 years… Elections decided on Election Night: Republicans: 52%. Democrats: 48%. Elections decided AFTER Election Night: Republicans: 20%. Democrats: 80%. This is totally insane. Nothing to see here…

@NicHulscher

GOOGLE TO CONDUCT ONE OF THE LARGEST OPEN-AIR BIOLOGICAL EXPERIMENTS IN AMERICAN HISTORY. 64 MILLION bacteria-infected mosquitoes are set to be released into the wild pending EPA approval... This could result in IRREVERSIBLE ecosystem disruptions. (video)

@EndWokeness

Mail-ins arriving before Election Day: Bass: 38.1%. Pratt: 27.9%. Raman: 20%. Mail-ins arriving after Election Day: Raman: 37% (+17% surge). Bass: 34.9% (-3% drop). Pratt: 19% (-9% drop). Who are we kidding here? This is fraud.

@GeneralMCNews

BREAKING: The “secret footage” released by TPUSA and Erika Kirk claiming Charlie named her his successor before the assassination has been community noted for being fake and edited.

@FTT1776

Sen Mike Lee confirmed on Glenn Beck: JD Vance can walk into the Senate ANY TIME he wants and immediately take the Presiding Officer chair. As VP, he’s the constitutional ‘President of the Senate’, he doesn’t need permission. JD VANCE, make your mark, the Country needs you!

@DavidJHarrisjr

JUST IN: Canada just criminalized the Bible. Bill C-9 has passed the Senate, removing key religious protections and opening the door for Scripture to be treated as “hate speech.” Quoting the Bible on marriage, sin, or God’s design for sexuality can now lead to prosecution for “willful promotion of hatred.” This is a direct attack on Christianity and religious freedom in Canada. Brothers and sisters — the time to stand is now. Pray for Canada. Speak the truth boldly. Defend the Gospel while we still can.

@financeLancelot

Google $GOOG just released an AI tool called TurboVec that shrinks memory requirements by 92%.

@BullTheoryio

BREAKING: President Trump wants to give every American a piece of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI. Speaking on Air Force One yesterday, Trump said the government is exploring a plan where AI companies give the American public a direct ownership stake making every citizen a partner in the AI boom. He plans to meet AI executives next week to discuss it. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman first pitched this idea to Trump in early 2025 proposing that AI companies voluntarily give the US government equity stakes so that ordinary Americans, not just shareholders, benefit from the AI revolution. (pic)

@OCOCReport

WARNING: They’re turning American farmers into data slaves. The Palantir–USDA deal “One Farmer, One File” a permanent government digital profile tracking every farmer’s land, finances, crops, and livestock. Drones are already vaccinating cows. Satellites + AI are next. They call it “efficiency.” It’s the infrastructure for total control over America’s food supply. Voluntary today. Mandatory tomorrow. This is how food sovereignty dies. America is being farmed — not the land.

Night Trading

Asian indices are -3.75% to -1.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 +2.0 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 41.5 +1.0 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%.
Crude Oil 93.37/bbl. +3.1%
Gold 4,348.1 USD/t oz. -.4%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.51 +.26%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.98 -.05%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 118.9 -.7%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.56% +3.0 basis points.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.95% +4.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.8%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.1%.
S&P 500 futures +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

2026-06-06T16:43:02.011-04:00

Around X:

@Zerohedge

Hedge fund gross leverage maxed out at 100th percentile for all time horizons.
NOW. Iran’s Fars News Agency reports an explosion near Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil export hub in the Persian Gulf.
Feds Launch Probe Into California's Elections.
Time to change the core AI mnemonic from “1 gig = 50 big” to 75 (AI infrastructure costs rising from $50BN per GW to $75BN).
Watch: Leftists Are Crying Over Trump's Beautifully Restored Reflecting Pool.
"The Intensity Of This Market Remains Striking": Goldman's Pasquariello Reflects On A Rough Week.
Trump Says US Weighing Taking Stakes In AI Companies.
Second Flesh-Eating Screwworm Case Raises Beef Supply Fears As Goldman Warns Outbreak "Could Be Disruptive".
Whatever You Do, Don't Ignore Friday's Selloff.
US Intercepted Fresh Iranian Ballistic Missile Attacks Overnight As Tehran Blasts 'Ceasefire Violations'.
UK Government Plots Digital ID Lockdown On Every Phone In Lockstep With Big Tech.
*IRAN ACCUSES US OF CONTINUED VIOLATION OF CEASEFIRE. *KUWAIT ARMY SAYS INTERCEPTED 7 MISSILES ON SATURDAY.
Israeli Ambassador To France Accused Of 'Foreign Interference' After Election Remarks.
Global Internet Traffic Has Doubled Since 2020.
Has Trump Opened Pandora's Box?
NASA Ends Mars Mission 6 Months After Losing Communication With Spacecraft.
IRAN GUARDS SAY TARGETED US BASES IN GULF: AFP. IRANIAN STATE TV CLAIMS MISSILE STRIKES ON U.S. BASES IN KUWAIT AND BAHRAIN. IRGC CLAIMS IT FIRED ON FOUR TANKERS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
US Military Shoots Down Inbound Iranian Attack Drones Over Hormuz, Bombs Coastal Sites.
The Market Is Starting To Price In Something Most People Still Don't See.
Stop Voter Fraud Or "Lose The Republic".
Climate Change: No. 1 Problem Of No Nation?
SECOND US SCREWWORM CASE CONFIRMED IN TEXAS: USDA.
"No Longer Tolerate Radical Marxists": Rubio Sanctions Revolutionary Cuban Influence Network Tied To U.S. Left-Wing NGOs.
"Thank You, Mr. President": Maryland Freedom Caucus Applauds Trump's Coal Power Plant Restart Plan.
Lebanon's President Blasts Iran, Hezbollah For Using Country As Bargaining Chip.
Trump Tells "Less Shackled" Pulte To Fire Intelligence Officials As Senate Blocks FISA Extension.
Consumption, Concentration, Korea, & Copper: Here's The Charts That Goldman Traders Are Watching Into The Weekend.
Korea on Monday will be a bundle of joy. (graph)
*MARVELL TECHNOLOGY AND FLEX SET TO JOIN S&P 500.
WATCH: Following the lifting of the internet blockade in Iran, new footage from Operation Epic Fury has begun to emerge. In the footage here, internal security and rescue forces can be seen operating near the entrances of a tunnel, which was attacked by US / Israeli forces. The attack was carried out because missile launchers were found sheltering in the tunnels, and the only way to neutralize their activity was to block the entrances. These tunnels are located on the Barouj-Bard-Ramabad highway in western Iran.
"Massive Fumble": Chicago Bears Leave Blue State Illinois For Indiana After Century Of Football.
*GOLDMAN CEO ASKS TOP LAWYER TO STAY AT FIRM AFTER EPSTEIN FUROR.
Historic Win-Streak Ends Abruptly As Strong Jobs Report Sparks Market Stampede.

@BarronsOnline

Had bullish commentary on (TPR) and (OKTA).

@IGSquawk

Weekend markets update: #DAX 24409 -0.11%. #DOW 50656 -0.17%. #NASDAQ 28856 +0.24%. #FTSE 10289 -0.12%. #HANGSENG 24399 -0.39%. #EURUSD 11521 -0.02%. #GOLD 4315 -0.35%. #SILVER 6803 +0.18%. #USOIL 9034 +1.56%.
Crypto update: #Bitcoin 60703.00 -1.57% #Ether 1559.30 -2.81% #Cardano 0.1576 -2.96% #BitcoinCash 215.23 -2.3% #Litecoin 42.03 -3.8% #Stellar 0.2053 +1.99% #Dogecoin 0.0812 -1.58% #Uniswap 2.4311 -1.85% #Chainlink 7.3394 -1.72% #Polkadot 0.9374 -1.69% #Solana 62.0700 -4.02% #Avalanche 6.6600 -3.62%.

@TheSCIF

California steals another election as another mail-in ballot drop dumps 450,000 votes putting Xavier Becerra ahead of Trump endorsed Steve Hilton at 26.7%, calling the race for Becerra. Steve Hilton: 26.6% 1,639,335 votes. Xavier Becerra 26.7% 1,655,927 votes. Of course they keep you occupied and the race tight and then steal it at the end. How did Hilton lose so many votes when he was almost at 28% earlier today? FRAUD. (video)

@itsharmanjot

Holy sht.. Hackers are going to love this. Someone open sourced an all-in-one hacking toolkit that bundles every major pentesting tool into a Single CLI menu. You install it once and get instant access to tools across every category from anonymity, info gathering, wireless attacks, password cracking, web scanning, exploit frameworks, payload GENERATION, and more. It's called HackingTool.

@MarioNawfal

A highly controversial clause tucked inside the upcoming defense bill is pushing the Pentagon toward a radical transformation. Ret. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar warns that Section 224 of the NDAA effectively establishes an unprecedented legal merger between the U.S. military and the Israeli IDF. From intelligence fusion to a joint checking account style budget, this legislation mandates that our $2 trillion defense apparatus becomes intrinsically combined with Israel. (video)
Israel's Ministry of Defense officially announces formal talks with the U.S. to replace the expiring military aid MOU with what it calls "a completely reciprocal partnership." The framework, explicitly described as "reflecting the strategic vision of Israel's Prime Minister," expands joint investment in research, development, and co-production. Netanyahu's letter called this "my plan." Section 224 wrote it into the defense bill. Now the formal negotiations have begun.

@CENTCOM

Moments ago, CENTCOM forces shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones that were launched toward the Strait of Hormuz. The attack drones posed an immediate threat to regional maritime traffic. U.S. forces subsequently struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island to defend against further attacks. American forces remain vigilant and postured to respond to unjustified Iranian aggression in self-defense.

@GenXGirl1994

Israel & its lobby are attempting a complete takeover of our gov thru a myriad of bills. One bill virtually no one is talking about is @SenTomCotton’s Section 622, of the FY27 Intelligence Authorization Act which locks US into permanent unbreakable intel entanglement with Israel. (video)

@EthanforMD

Earlier this week, I talked about how Congress is hiding the U.S.–Israel military relationship in the defense bill. There is a second bill that goes further. It makes it law that a president can't pull intelligence sharing back without clearing a legal hurdle, even if you elect one who wants to. (thread)

@WallStreetApes

There needs to be a federal audit into California elections. This is how Democrats steal elections in California. An election worker is seen running through the same huge stack of ballots 3 different times. The same batch is ran, taken out, ran again, and again, and again. Election Fraud Expert and Investigator Joe Hoft even confirmed when this happened in Orange County “The real shocker of this entire episode caught on video is that this all occurred after Orange County received received a bomb threat and before the workers were removed from the ballot counting facility." This happened right before a “bomb threat” was called in. Meaning they were rigging the election, then staged an incident to draw attention away, shift focus and cover it up. Now look at what’s happening in California this election. (video)

@spaceandtech_

Figure says it has increased humanoid robot production from one robot per day to one robot per hour in just 120 days. The robots undergo intensive testing, including repeated squats and jogging movements. Figure also demonstrated the robot's ability to climb stairs and navigate complex terrain using vision-based control. (video)

@DataChaz

Dario confirmed that Claude is currently designing the next version of itself. To test this, the company asks its new models to optimize the training code for smaller AIs. While Claude Opus 4 achieved a 3x speedup, Mythos Preview hit a staggering 52x. Recursive self-improvement is officially here, today's models are actively building tomorrow's. (video)

@DerrickEvans4WV

This is INSANE. AIPAC controls 76% of the members of Congress, regardless of which party they belong to. There’s def a uniparty, but it looks much different than I could have ever imagined. I NEVER looked or paid attention to any of this until they took out Thomas Massie. (video)

@RealAlexJones

South Carolina Is Preparing To FIRE Lindsey Graham Next Tuesday, Alex Jones Interviews Mark Lynch Who Is Set To Replace The Disgraced NeoCon Senator! Remember When Lindsey Graham Said You Can Make America Great Again By Telling "Donald Trump To Go To Hell," And That He Would Have Shot J6 Protestors In The Head After Celebrating Joe Biden's 2020 Presidential Election 'Victory?' (video)

@DropSiteNews

The House voted today on a new measure to fuse elements of the Israeli and US militaries, particularly on the cyberweapons front. Section 224, as its known, is included in the National Defense Authorization Act. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., introduced an amendment to strip it from the bill. Watch as a stream of Republicans and Democrats stand up in support of the enhanced cooperation. Only Rep. Sarah Jacobs (D-Calif.) joined Khanna, and the measure failed in a voice vote. Watch: (video)

@LibsofTikTok

Spencer Pratt got 0 out of 24,000 votes in a late night LA ballot drop. 0/24,000. A guy getting around 30% support got 0 out of 24,000. Astronomically small probability of happening. Impossible. California no longer even hides it. Doors need to be kicked in. They aren’t even trying to hide it.

@NicHulscher

10,000% RISE IN ALPHA-GAL SYNDROME DEMANDS IMMEDIATE FBI INVESTIGATION FOR POSSIBLE BIOTERRORISM: 1. Farmers reporting mysterious boxes of ticks and possible aircraft drops. 2. Peer-reviewed paper says it's “morally obligatory” to release GMO ticks that spread Alpha-Gal Syndrome. 3. Bill Gates is spending MILLIONS funding GMO tick technology. 4. Gates also funds lab-grown/fake meat that doesn’t contain alpha-gal. 5. The U.S. Army previously released 270,000+ ticks into the wild for bioweapons research. (video)

@ZachCostello_

Marco Rubio is asked here about Jared Kushner and his potential conflicts of interests having become a billionaire this year off of foreign investment from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar. Rubio says Kushner is a private citizen who works for the government for free "out of the goodness of his heart." (video)

@saso_capital

What is causing the selloff in the semi space today? Top three catalysts:

@GeneralMCNews

BREAKING: Jared Kushner’s $1.4 billion purchase of the abandoned island of Sazan includes 3,500 bunkers and a network of underground tunnels.

@EricLDaugh

JUST NOW: New York is set to OUTLAW the term "MOTHER" and "FATHER" on some documentation because it's "outdated" and should be called "gestating parent" instead. Father = "non-gestating person". WHAT ON EARTH IS WRONG WITH DEMOCRATS?! (video)

@w_terrence

No word from Black Lives Matter or Al Sharpton. Not one demand for answers. Not one national outrage campaign. Not even people saying her name. This is Margaret Swan, a great-grandmother who was stabbed to death 20 times in a random attack in the middle of the day on Atlanta’s public transit. Her murder was the second horrific attack on MARTA in just one week. I want answers from Atlanta. The number of assaults, robberies, and rapes on MARTA trains is more than three times the national average.

@LightOnLiberty

California Sheriff says their elections are being RIGGED! Your vote in California is being STOLEN by illegals, and they're not even hiding it anymore. Sheriff's investigators uncovered that people from PAKISTAN were voting in California elections. Multiple people living OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY were registered and casting ballots. California's online voter registration system operates on an "honor system" where literally anyone in the world can register to vote by simply clicking a box saying they're not lying. No verification, no citizenship checks. Just click and you're registered. Once you're in the system, you automatically get mailed a ballot for EVERY election! (video)

@bennyjohnson

How did Democrats make election fraud legal in California? We investigated. This is insane. Check this out… Election fraud is institutional and codified into law in California. According to the Secretary of State’s website:

OpenVAERS:

VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,033,460 Reports(+295 from prior report) Through April 24th, 2026.

SKirsch.com:

Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X

Weekly Scoreboard*

2026-06-05T15:19:12.151-04:00

S&P 500 7,405.6 -2.3%

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

DJIA 50,875.5 -.2%

NASDAQ 25,723.7 -4.3%

Russell 2000 2,830.7 -3.1%

NYSE FANG+ 17,080.4 -7.3%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 300.7 -8.4%
Vaneck Social Sentiment 36.64 -10.1%

Wilshire 5000 73,042.5 -2.3%

Russell 1000 Growth 4,949.6 -3.8%

Russell 1000 Value 2,325.6 -.5%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 934.3 +1.4%

Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 256.0 -2.8%

NYSE Technology 9,356.1 -4.3%

Transports 21,908.4 +2.4%

Utilities 1,111.5 +.3%

MSCI Europe Banks 119.43 -1.0%

MSCI Emerging Markets 64.7 -5.6%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 263.0 +.5%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 134.3 -.1%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 618,080 +.1%
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +5.4%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 394 -863

Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -17.8 +2.1%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 160,998 -6.7%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,003,795 +.04%

Total Put/Call .90 +36.9%

OEX Put/Call .44 +22.5%

ISE Sentiment 179.0 +3.5%

NYSE Arms .88 -31.5%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.0 -.9%
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +12.0 basis points
Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.45 unch.

Volatility(VIX) 19.6 +16.8%
S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.12 +136.2%

CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.4 +21.0%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.40 +4.6%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.0 +1.6%

Smart Money Flow Index 21,344.9 +1.3%
NAAIM Exposure Index 86.8 -11.6

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.894 Trillion +1.4%

ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$1.575 Million

AAII % Bulls 36.3 +2.0%

AAII % Bears 37.0 -11.7%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from GREED) -11.0

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 384.0 -.2%

Crude Oil 90.58/bbl. +2.6%

Reformulated Gasoline 304.9 -.1%

Natural Gas 3.22 -1.6%
US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 74.6 USD/Megawatt +.7%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.8 euros/megawatt-hour +6.0%

Heating Oil 359.8 +1.4%
Newcastle Coal 147.0 (1,000/metric ton) +7.7%

Gold 4,322.9 -4.8%
Silver 68.15 -9.2%

Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 182.44 -1.8%

Copper 626.5 -1.8%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 401.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%

China Iron Ore Spot 101.70 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%
China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 27,250.0 USD/metric tonne -7.6%
inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 61.99 +6.7%

CME Lumber 607.0 +3.7%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,344.7 -3.2%
US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 342.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 553.50 USD/Short Ton -4.0%

Economy

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.7 percentage point

US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.7 -.6 percentage point

NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.23 +7.0%
Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 113.9 -47.0%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 84.0 -2.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 90.0% -7.0 percentage points

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 262.6 +17.9%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 +.5
DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +28.0% n/a

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 362.69 +n/a: Growth Rate +23.3% +n/a percentage points, P/E 20.9 -n/a
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% -2.0 basis points
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% +n/a percentage points
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 896.84 +n/a: Growth Rate +72.9% +n/a percentage points, P/E 20.0 -n/a

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.2 +18.3 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.3 +18.1 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.90 +4.5 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 3.8%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 96.2%(-3.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 6/17

US Dollar Index 100.05 +1.2%

MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,863.4 -.6%

Bitcoin/USD 59,690.2 -17.7%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 210.73 -.5%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.53 -1.6%

Yield Curve(2s/10s) 37.75 -5.0 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.54% +11.0 basis points
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.90% -3.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.664 Trillion +.1%
Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.325 Billion +5.6%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.4 +1.0%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 181.9 -1.7%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 76.0 +5.0 basis points
UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.1 -.3%

China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.7 +1.9%

Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 123.5 +4.0%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.6 -1.6%
Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.2 -1.4%

South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.0 +3.4%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.1 -.1%
China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.6 +.9%

Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.6% unch.
Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.7% unch.
US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% unch.
CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% unch.
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.33% +2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +4.18% unch.
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 +1.0 basis point
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -3.0 basis points

Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 11.5 +5.5 basis points
2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.25 unch.

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 unch.

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.0 +2.7%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.1 -1.4%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 152.0 +43.6%
High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 429.7 -1.1%
Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 249.0 +24.0

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 56.2 +1.6%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 151.3 +.4%

MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 111.0 +2.0 basis points
Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 550.0 +7.0 basis points
Avg. Auto ABS OAS .47 unch.

M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.7% +10.0 basis points

Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,401.7B +.8%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 214,750 +3.1%

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 52.62 -2.5%

Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.60% -1.0 basis point

Weekly Mortgage Applications 252,800 -2.5%

Weekly Retail Sales +8.9% unch.
OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +13.0% unch.
Box Office Weekly Gross $267.1M +78.5%

Nationwide Gas $4.22/gallon -.17/gallon

Baltic Dry Index 3,037.0 -5.8%
Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,432.9/40 ft Box +22.6%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,411.6 +3.3%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 210.0 -2.3%
Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 155.4 -4.1%

Rail Freight Carloads 264,449 -9.7%
TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,773,608 +20.2%
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.6 +6.4 points
Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 41.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

Large-Cap Value unch.

Worst Performing Style

Small-Cap Growth -3.9%

Leading Sectors

Education +4.5%

Insurance +4.3%
Energy +3.7%

Healthcare Providers +3.5%

Road & Rail +3.5%

Lagging Sectors

Software -5.0%

AI Innovation -6.5%

Airlines -8.0%

Alt Energy -8.7%

Gold & Silver -10.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)

COO, GIII, ABM, COKE, ARCB, PODD, ARGX, KMB, KVUE, REZI, EG, TWFG, AGX, KO, HRTG, FRO and PPC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (46)

ABVX, CEF, GFI, BSTZ, MLYS, AVGO, SCVL, PLAB, AEM, DOCU, PSLV, DMRA, DRUG, PKX, LULU, ASST, BLSH, DXYZ, VPG, RLAY, GWRE, AMBA, GRRR, BIDU, MSTR, ASX, INSM, NNE, HL, GENB, ADUR, HBM, GLXY, BTDR, NOK, UUUU, RDW, AMRC, OUST, QUIK, FCEL, CRNC, BRUN, TSAT, ALM and PL

ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Substantially Lower into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Crypto Plunge, Sector Rotation, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

2026-06-05T13:43:43.210-04:00

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,490 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -266 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Lower: On losses in my financial/industrial/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts, then covered some
Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-06-05T12:05:23.481-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(CPB)/.48

After the Close:

(MTN)/8.99
(AVO)/.05

Economic Releases

11:00 am EST

The NY Fed 1YR Inflation Expectations Index for May.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Barr speaking, the CB Employment Trends Index for May, Rosenblatt Tech Summit, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce Conference, (CRWV) annual meeting, (MSTR) annual meeting, (INCY) annual meeting and the Mizuho Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

2026-06-04T22:38:43.791-04:00

Around X:

@Business

US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that Washington and New Delhi will strike a long-awaited trade agreement after negotiators wrapped up a fresh round of talks this week.
South Korea’s $4.9 trillion stock market is starting to flash signs of strain after a world-beating rally.
Meta Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang said the company’s future artificial intelligence models will differentiate themselves from competitors through their consumer health capabilities.
Global investors are rapidly losing confidence in Indonesia as the nation’s stocks tumble at the fastest pace worldwide and its currency sinks to all-time lows.
The Trump administration announced a small modular nuclear reactor reached a critical milestone Thursday.
Research analysts across Wall Street are telling would-be SpaceX IPO buyers that they’re modeling for the company’s AI division to see 100 times revenue growth at the end of the decade, to help justify a targeted $1.8 trillion valuation.
As chipmakers suffered their worst day in more than two weeks, there were signs that some traders are betting the selloff will be short-lived.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 6% AS CHIPMAKERS SLUMP.
Trump Says Accountability Is Coming Over The 'Rigged' 2020 Election.
Texas AG Launches Investigation Into Glyphosate In Food.
Anthropic's Marketing FUD Playbook Returns With Call To Pause AI Frontier Development.
Beer Demand Goes Flat As Even Alcoholics Pull Back With Gas Above $4.
Rubio Says 'We Remember Their Lives And Honor Their Legacy' On Tiananmen Massacre's 37th Anniversary.
Trump Softens Red Line: 'No Reason' To Retrieve Iran's Nuclear 'Dust' As It's Effectively 'Entombed'.
*TRUMP ON IRAN WAR: WE'LL WIN MILITARILY OR ON PAPER.
*TRUMP: WOULD BE HONORED TO MEET THE AYATOLLAH.
The cities where the best housing deals are coming. (table)
*TRUMP: WE'LL HANDLE CUBA AFTER WE TAKE CARE OF IRAN.
*TRUMP: NO REASON TO GET IRAN NUCLEAR DUST, IT'S ENTOMBED. *TRUMP: NOT CONSIDERING COVERT OPERATION TO SEIZE IRAN URANIUM. *TRUMP: WE HAVE POWERFUL CAMERAS WATCHING IRAN'S URANIUM.
*TRUMP: WOULD BE NICE IF LEBANON COULD HAVE PEACE. *TRUMP: SPOKE TO NETANYAHU, HEZBOLLAH ABOUT IT.
Banks Bid, Semis Slammed Amid Momo Meltdown As Crude & Crypto Slide.

@CNBC

Asia-Pacific markets set to open subdued after Wall Street's AI-linked stocks slide.
Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
CrowdStrike CEO says AI security fears will become a bigger tailwind in coming quarters.
S&P 500 futures tick lower as Wall Street awaits May jobs report: Live updates.
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Lululemon Athletica, ServiceTitan, Argan and more.

@TheTranscript

$AVGO CEO Hock explicitly says demand from Anthropic and OpenAI alone is far above what Broadcom expected six months ago: "We're talking about capacity as measured by gigawatt power that are way ahead of what we have expected, say, six months ago.".
Lululemon lowers FY26 guidance. CEO: "More recently, we have been navigating headwinds that have led us to adjust our outlook for the full year. We have assessed the business and are taking additional actions to reposition where needed..."
$LULU: -11% AH.
$CVX CEO: Venezuela represents one of Chevron's largest long-duration optionality opportunities. “What many people are surprised to learn is that Venezuela has more oil than any country on the planet, including Saudi Arabia.”

@WallStEngine

U.S. officials have held preliminary talks about the government acquiring shares in major AI companies, per NOTUS. Sam Altman has discussed the idea with Trump administration officials, including a direct pitch to Trump in early 2025. The discussions have focused on companies voluntarily ceding shares to the government, not selling them. Returns could be used for public purposes, including a potential dividend to American households. Anthropic is reportedly not in talks with the administration on providing equity.
S&P Dow Jones Indices will not change its eligibility rules to fast-track megacap IPOs into the S&P 500 or S&P MidCap 400. That means companies like SpaceX or Anthropic would still need to meet the existing requirements, including profitability, seasoning period, & minimum IWF.
$RBRK Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Adj. EPS: $0.16 (Est. -$0.53). Subscription Revenue: $374.2M; +41% YoY. Total Revenue: $387.1M; +39% YoY. Subscription ARR: $1.57B; +32% YoY. FY Guide: Revenue: $1.638B-$1.648B (Est. $1.608B). Adj. EPS: $0.25-$0.35 (Est. $0.17). Subscription ARR: $1.854B-$1.862B. FCF: $293M-$303M. Q2 Guide: Revenue: $395M-$397M (Est. $382.8M) . Adj. EPS: $0.03-$0.05 (Est. $0.02). Non-GAAP Subscription ARR Contribution Margin: 11% to 12%.

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -1.75% to unch. on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 unch.
China Sovereign CDS 40.5 unch.
China Iron Ore Spot 101.85 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.
Crude Oil 93.30/bbl. +.3%
Gold 4,479.60 USD/t oz. -.6%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.59 +.03%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.15 -.08%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.2 -.3%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.47% unch.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.91% +2.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 +1.3%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.
S&P 500 futures -.5%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.9%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Sector Rotation, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

2026-06-04T15:35:18.916-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 -1.2%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.3 +2.2%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +1.0 basis point
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.32 +2.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.8 -1.3%
Emerging Market CDS Index 148.6 -1.5%
Israel Sovereign CDS 54.6 +.6%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 +.3
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.8 unch.

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.6 -3.5

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.90 +1.3

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.5 +2.5
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +28.0% +.4 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 362.25 +.53: Growth Rate +23.2% unch., P/E 20.9 -.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% -1.0 basis point
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% -.8 percentage point
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 894.01 +3.22: Growth Rate +72.4% n/a, P/E 20.1 -.5
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.20 +1.0 basis point
US Yield Curve 42.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 187.1 -.4%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.4% +1.1 percentage points
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% -3.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 -7.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.5% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 72.5%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +325 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -141 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my biotech/financial sector longs and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
Market Exposure: Moved to 1000% Net Long

Bear Radar

2026-06-04T15:01:26.155-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Semis -1.8% 2) Computer Networking -1.1% 3) Computer Hardware -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

LLYVK, PRAX, ALOY, T, CRWD, XZO, BRKR, BTSG, CELH, PUK, BRUN, LCII, SKM, AVEX, CMCO, TAC, OCS, FIVE, AVGO, CIEN, NTSK and PVH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) HTZ 2) CDNS 3) XEL 4) CMG 5) BHP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) PVH 2) MU 3) T 4) CIEN 5) AVGO

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) SMH 2) XLF 3) IGV 4) XLE 5) XBI

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-06-04T14:48:07.133-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Growth +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Banks +3.5% 2) Pharma +3.5% 3) Defense +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

LPTH, BOT, RDW, VERA, OSCR, NTLA, LQDA, TSAT, PGY, PSNL, UMAC, INOD, AAOI, BEAM, ABVX, NVCR, TEM, BAND, FTRE, GENB, PLSE, NN, OUST, CRSP, CLPT, ADPT, GRAL, RCAT, FTK, MANU, RDDT, M, FLNC, BKSY, KMTS, BLLN, MPLT, HNGE, AMG, DXYZ, GKOS, TATT, VOYG, DQ, DSGX, GRRR, BLSH, BB, SDGR, TE, TXG, MRVL, MRP, OTF, OWL, VECO, PINS, BEN, OWL, RELX, STRL, KRMN, CDNA, TWLO, CCI, LLY, MDT, PUBM, AUPH, SOLV, ANIP, DHR, PAHC, DFTX, SAP, TOYO, JAZZ, CLYM, ASYS, JBIO, DFTX, GOOG, ASYS, CLYM, PPC, ASST, PCAR, QBTS, PKE, AUB, WSE, RGTI, IRTC and TFC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) HTZ 2) PRMW 3) DHR 4) CIEN 5) CRSP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) LFTO 2) IOVA 3) AUUD 4) CXAI 5) NVRI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) DRAM 2) SOXX 3) XLU 4) XLK 5) SKYY

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-06-04T14:26:36.644-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ABM)/.88
(GIII)/-.30

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for May is estimated at 85K versus 115K in April.
Average Hourly Earnings MoM for May is estimated at +.3% versus a +.2% gain in April.
The Unemployment Rate for May is estimated at 4.3% versus 4.3% in April.

3:00 pm EST

Consumer Credit for April is estimated to fall to $17.750M versus $24.855M in March.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (AXSM) annual meeting, (GRMN) annual meeting, (YELP) annual meeting, (GOOG) annual meeting, (ABNB) annual meeting and the (LGND) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

2026-06-04T13:37:34.275-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 +.3
10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
69.0% of Issues Advancing, 28.5% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.05 +5.0%
Non-Block Money Flow +$174.0M
82 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
53.30% (+3.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 63.5 +3.6

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch.
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 46.0% -8.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 25.0% +2.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 57.0% unch.
US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% -1.0 percentage point

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 124.5 -.3%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 91.0 +5.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% +7.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 432.5 +1.5 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 264.0 +.3%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.6 +.2%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 55.0 (NEUTRAL) +1.0
1-Day Vix 9.2 -20.1%
Vix 15.4 -4.0%
Total Put/Call .79 -1.3%

Thursday Watch

2026-06-03T22:10:44.247-04:00

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 +1.5 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 40.5 +.5 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 102.60 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%.
Crude Oil 95.20/bbl. -.9%
Gold 4,488.0 USD/t oz. +.5%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.57 -.10%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.18 unch.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.2 -.5%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.48% -2.0 basis points.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.87% unch.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.8%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.36%.
S&P 500 futures -.36%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

2026-06-03T15:16:49.321-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 +1.0%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.6 -3.3%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.34 +1.0 basis point
European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.5 +1.9%
Emerging Market CDS Index 150.4 +1.3%
Israel Sovereign CDS 54.3 +1.0%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 +.1
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.8 +3.2

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.1 +5.1

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.20 +14.3

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.0 +1.5
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(488 of 500 reporting) +27.6% -.1 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 361.72 +.37: Growth Rate +23.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 -.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 890.79 +.84: Growth Rate +125.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.6 -.3
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.19 +2.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 187.7 -1.9%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.5%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.3% -1.2 percentage points
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.49% +5.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.80 +8.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 90.2% (-1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 72.2%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -115 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -150 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my energy/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

2026-06-03T14:51:41.927-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Computer Services -5.9% 2) Software -4.0% 3) Telecom -2.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

NU, TSCO, HLIT, MH, ULTA, PANW, CELC, ORLA, WSE, AI, LOGI, HLNE, TSAT, IBM, ZS, EQX, VSXY, KRUS, CHA, STEP, KRUS, AMBA, USAR, GPN, FLNC, RGTI, INFQ, APPN, OKLO, SMR, DXYZ, NNE, DSP, MLYS and GRRR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) PRA 2) GTES 3) BIRK 4) FPS 5) CMG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) CGNT 2) COMP 3) MLYS 4) FNMA 5) VIRC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) PSI 2) IGV 3) XLP 4) SMH 5) XLC

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-06-03T14:37:08.132-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Biotech +1.8% 2) Energy +1.7% 3) Semis +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

NVTS, ABVX, MMED, ALOY, DRTS, GMTL, TGTX, POET, BOT, STRL, PAHC, BRUN, PVLA, WOLF, SVCO, UTI, ODD, GME, PCT, BRKR, BTDR, TBN, KMX, NN, TATT, INCY, PRAX, STRO, APTV, CYRX, BWA, ALHC, MDT, QUIK, RIVN, MEI, BLLN, HMC, MRVL, SYRE, TTMI, OCS, ILMN, MXL, META, DIOD, LPLA, PHVS, LMB, ADEA, NTSK, PLXS, FLEX, ELAN and WMT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) PPL 2) DRTS 3) ST 4) LASE 5) PRMW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) MMED 2) MRVL 3) LASE 4) NVTS 5) MAIA

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) XLV 2) DRAM 3) XLB 4) SOXX 5) KRE

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-06-03T14:17:27.867-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(BF/B)/.32
(CIEN)/1.46
(TTC)/1.51

After the Close:

(AGX)/2.31
(COO)/1.10
(DOCU)/.99
(GWRE)/.74
(LULU)/1.68
(PL)/-.04
(RBRK)/-.03
(ZUMZ)/-.81

Economic Releases

5:30 am EST

Challenger Job Cuts YoY for May.

8:30 am EST

1Q Final Non-Farm Productivity/Unit Labor Cost readings.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated at 215K versus 215K the prior week.
Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1780K versus 1786K prior.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Daly speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, (ASO) annual meeting, (FLY) annual meeting, (TT) annual meeting, (MYGN) annual meeting, (EME) annual meeting, (LUNR) annual meeting, (AAOI) annual meeting, (WMT) annual meeting, (ALAB) annual meeting, (DVA) annual meeting, (SMTC) annual meeting, (RRR) annual meeting and the Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

2026-06-03T13:40:11.988-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +6.1% Above 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.0 -.2
8 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
29.2% of Issues Advancing, 68.9% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.07 -22.5%
Non-Block Money Flow -$238.5M
85 New 52-Week Highs, 90 New Lows
52.5% (-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 59.9 -4.0

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch.
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 54.0% -3.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 23.0% -2.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 57.0% -2.0 percentage points
US Invades Iran before 2027 18.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 125.1 +1.9%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 86.0 +6.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 83.0% -13.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 431.0 +7.5 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 261.5 -1.3%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 161.8 -.5%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from GREED) -3.0
1-Day Vix 10.4 +17.5%
Vix 16.3 +3.4%
Total Put/Call .79 +9.7%

Wednesday Watch

2026-06-02T22:12:02.952-04:00

Around X:

@Business

AI is upending law firms' billing, hiring and even their legal products.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has hired conservative policy analysts Paul Winfree and Daniel Heil as temporary advisers, according to sources.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

*SPACEX TARGETS SALE OF 555.6M SHRS AT $135 EACH IN IPO: REUTERS.
I don't know if market cares about renewed Iran sit. But I do know that market is very long calls. and not long downside hedges (puts). this makes the put call open interest ratios near their ~10 year lows. that transition could be violent.
US Treasury Sanctions Iran's Largest Crypto Exchange.
Trump Signs AI 'Cyber Defense' Executive Order.
BREAKING! Iran just struck US targets in Kuwait after the US struck Qeshm today. Also, alarms just went off in Bahrain, seems Iran is striking there too. Iranian source tells me Iran has stopped playing the tit-for-tat game. Instead, it's now striking back "at least 1.5x as hard" for every attack the US against Iran.
US, China Militaries Hold 'Candid' Deconfliction Talks In Hawaii As Trump Goes Quiet On Taiwan.
and UAE too.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Tuesday it carried out “precise and concentrated missile strikes” targeting US military bases in Kuwait in response to what it described as a US attack on Iran’s Qeshm Island, according to a statement. "Any new folly, any further aggression, or any move that even touches an inch of our borders and sovereignty will be met with a seismic, crushing, and decisive response that will go beyond the usual rules and boundaries, and our brave forces will not hesitate to turn all aggressors’ bases and their interests in the region into ashes," the statement said. "The time of “hit and run” is over, and the oppressive forces must accept the grave consequences of their ignorance and reckless adventurism."
AIR RAID SIRENS ACTIVATED AT US BASES IN SAUDI ARABIA: FARS.
US Bill Would Prevent Chinese Connected Cars In Canada From Entering United States.
Iran Sends Missiles, Drones Targeting Airbases In Kuwait After US Nighttime Attack On Qeshm Island.
Dems Have A Voter Problem. Gerrymandering Was Never Going To Fix It.
*KUWAIT SAYS CURRENTLY INTERCEPTING DRONE, MISSILE ATTACKS.
Permadrought: 75% Of Global Population Lives In A Country Affected By 'The Great Drying'.
Bamboozled Once Again....
Bitcoin Battered, Black Gold Bid As Job Openings Battle Hormuz Closings.

@CNBC

Asia-Pacific markets set to open mixed as concerns over Middle East conflict rise.
Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
Palo Alto CEO says customer meeting requests have surged amid AI security concerns.
Iran has mined 'large segments' of Hormuz Strait, Secretary of State Rubio says.
Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 closes at another record: Live updates.

@TheTranscript

$NVDA CEO: "I have a very exciting announcement that today we are announcing that we plan to return 50% or more of free cash flow to our shareholders this year, next year, and beyond. To infinity and beyond...We plan to increase our stock repurchases and our dividend over time."
Palo Alto CEO: "Q3 was a standout quarter for Palo Alto Networks, with accelerating organic bookings growth as customers turn to us to secure their AI deployments at scale," $PANW: +11% AH.
Ulta Beauty CEO: "Fiscal 2026 is off to a strong start driven by broad-based growth across all channels and major categories" $ULTA: +5% AH.

@WallStEngine

$PANW Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $3.0B (Est. $2.94B) ; +31% YoY. Adj. EPS: $0.85 (Est. $0.80). NGS ARR: $8.1B; +60% YoY. RPO: $18.4B; +36% YoY. FY Guide: Revenue: $11.42B-$11.43B (Est. $11.29B). Adj. EPS: $3.77-$3.79 (Est. $3.70). NGS ARR: $8.90B-$8.95B; +59% to +60% YoY. RPO: $20.9B-$21.0B; +32% to +33% YoY. Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 28.9% to 29.2%. Adjusted FCF Margin: 37.5%.

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 -75 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 40.0 -.25 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%.
Crude Oil 94.84/bbl. +1.2%
Gold 4,502.8 USD/t oz. -.4%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.59 -.02%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.28 -.04%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.0 +1.0%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.45% +1.0 basis point.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.86% -1.0 basis point.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 -.4 %.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.20%.
S&P 500 futures -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

2026-06-02T15:31:02.827-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 -.5%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.3 +.2%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.35 +1.0 basis point
European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.5 -1.5%
Emerging Market CDS Index 148.7 -.7%
Israel Sovereign CDS 53.8 -5.9%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.6 -1.2

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.0 +10.6

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.50 +5.3

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.5 unch.
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +27.7% unch.
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 361.35 +.39: Growth Rate +23.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.1 +.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 889.95 +.83: Growth Rate +124.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.9 -.1
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +3.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 191.36 +1.4%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.2%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.5% +1.4 percentage points
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.45% unch.
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +4.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 92.4% (-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 75.3%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +710 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -112 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/energy sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

2026-06-02T14:15:46.832-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Software -3.3% 2) Biotech -2.9% 3) Gambling -2.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

LPTH, CXDO, AI, APPN, CHA, CMCL, HURN, COGT, MIAX, SMMT, GMAB, CLYM, SNOW, DELL, EWTX, ASST, GRAL, NOW, IMNM, ZS, GENB, CBOE, NKTR, PATH, INTU, MSTR, SHAK, BRUN, NU, OLMA, OCS, PRAX, CELC and ABVX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) BITO 2) HPE 3) CBOE 4) SOLS 5) BNY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) ODD 2) FULC 3) OCS 4) NU 5) CBOE

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) VGT 2) XLF 3) XLK 4) XLP 5) XLY

Charts: