BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday Watch

2026-06-11T22:07:50.526-04:00

Around X:

@Business

Trump's latest threat to seize Kharg Island, followed by an abrupt reversal, reflects his dilemma: How to end an unpopular war against a stubborn enemy in a volatile region of the world.
Investors across Asia have been largely shut out of the world’s largest-ever IPO, forcing them to find creative ways to make bets on SpaceX’s $75 billion global spectacle.
Billionaires are leaving California for Nevada, angry at attempts to tax them. Some Golden State voters are also fed up.
A small number of firms are set to net tens of billions of dollars in returns from the SpaceX IPO.
Lawmakers and tech firms are suggesting new ways to ensure the public gets a piece of the AI boom.
Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

BREAKING: Massive fire erupts from a medical supply warehouse that can be seen for miles in Tracy, California. The fire is at the Medline warehouse, one of the largest medical supply distributors, which ships products to hospitals and healthcare facilities across the country. Multiple agencies and firefighters are working to get the blazing building under control, as investigators try to find the cause of the fire.
Fed Up With Food Delivery App Fees & Tips? Barclays Has Terrific News.
Middle Schoolers' Reading & Math Scores Remain Below Pre-Pandemic Levels, US Results Show.
*KOREA’S KOSPI EXTENDS GAIN TO 8% AS CHIP STOCKS SURGE.
This is correct. The @SECGov just sold out the retail investor so they could move forward with their tokenized Field of Dreams.
"It Was Like Two Bucks": Homeless Residents Say They Were Paid To Vote In Los Angeles Mayoral Race.
*TRUMP: ENDED WAR WITH IRAN TODAY.
*TRUMP: TODAY WE SETTLED UP WITH IRAN. *TRUMP ON IRAN: PRETTY MUCH COMPLETED. *TRUMP ON IRAN: WE GOT EVERYTHING WE WANTED.
Cato Vs Heritage: Should The U.S. Defend Taiwan From Chinese Invasion?
Hunter Biden says he'd run in 2028 with Gavin Newsom, but only as VP.
Trump Nominates US Attorney Jay Clayton As Director Of National Intelligence.
Token prices down 2.8%, lower 8 days in a row.
Polls Turn Against Netanyahu As Trump Says PM 'May Quit Politics'.
The intrigue: Netanyahu did not have advanced notice and was caught by surprise when Trump released his initial statement about the deal, according to a source with knowledge.
Karen Bass' Brother Joins Class-Action Lawsuit Against Karen Bass over LA Wildfires.
New CFTC Prediction Market Proposal Would Ban War And Terrorism Bets While Allowing Sports Markets.
Even 'Trust The Election' Pundits Are Suspicious.
*TRUMP: I UNDERSTAND THAT SUPREME LEADER HAS APPROVED DEAL. *TRUMP: LIFTING BLOCKADE IS PART OF IRAN DEAL.
TACO Thursday Trumps Hot-flation & ECB Hike, Sending Stocks & Bonds Soaring Ahead Of SPCX Launch.

@CNBC

CNBC Daily Open: Markets score big as Iran war nears final whistle and SpaceX takes the field.
Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street gears up for SpaceX’s historic IPO: Live updates.
What energy insiders in DC are saying about oil prices and a possible Iran deal.
President Trump: 'Will probably have a signing for Iran deal, maybe in Europe'.
Ex-Andreessen Horowitz partner slams his old firm, other VCs for 'political infiltration' around AI.

@TheTranscript

RH CEO: "Nearly 40 years ago, standing at the Brandenburg Gate, a former American president looked out at a divided world and issued a defiant, historic decree: 'Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.' Today, we look at the luxury home industry and ask the same."
$RH: +0.4% AH.
Adobe CEO: "Adobe delivered record revenue of $6.62 billion in Q2 reflecting strong AI-driven demand across our customer groups and we are raising our full-year fiscal 2026 revenue and non-GAAP EPS targets on the strength of that performance".
$ADBE: -6% AH.

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are +1.5% to +2.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -2.0 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 39.5 -.75 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 101.60 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
Crude Oil 86.76/bbl. -1.1%
Gold 4,212.20 USD/t oz. +2.4%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.50 +.08%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.11 -.07%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 120.9 +.7%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.47% +1.0 basis point.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.82% -7.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.1%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.6%.
S&P 500 futures +.11%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Plunging Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

2026-06-11T15:33:30.283-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.2 -2.7%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.8 +.2%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -2.0 basis points
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.15 +7.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.7 -.6%
Emerging Market CDS Index 149.3 -2.4%
Israel Sovereign CDS 48.6 -6.2%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.3
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.3 +1.4

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.4 -3.3

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.2 +1.0

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +1.4
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.11 +.21: Growth Rate +23.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.1 unch.
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 908.23 +.76: Growth Rate +75.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.3 -.2
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 -6.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 39.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.3 +.3%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.30 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.5% -.1 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.45% -10.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 -10.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.5% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 69.1%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,920 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -92 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +346 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM) hedges and emerging market shorts
Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

2026-06-11T14:47:35.842-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Growth +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Semis +5.9% 2) Defense +4.9% 3) Airlines +4.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

VELO, ATEX, VOYG, FLY, MBX, LUNR, ASYS, PICS, CPNG, ELVN, BBAR, NAVN, GRRR, RDW, SUPV, ATRO, UEC, ADPT, KLAC, LRCX, WGS, UCTT, TEO, BMA, TSAT, VPG, CXT, GGAL, LQDA, LOMA, AMAT, NRIX, ALM, TGS, SHAZ, CRESY, CRDO, IDCC, BTDR, SATS, VSH, STM, IREN, DAKT, CMCO, MTRN, FLNC, SVM, FOUR, MRVL, PDFS, ASML, PAM, DXYZ, SEPN, ARQT, UNIT, MAMA, IAG, M, UNIT, MDA, SEPN, MNRO, HNGE, OFRM, BNED, KTB, QXO, INTC, PRE, INTC, CAKE, MT, CIB, HOOD, BROS, ERO, DCO, CEPU, IRDM, IIPR, DQ, MEC, SW, IIPR, CEPU, DCO, ORLA, ASX, EVTC, MMYT, CDE, BAP, AMGN, PLAY, KRUS, PWP, SMCI, GEV, CRNC, AXIA, AZZ, DCTH, AU, AMRX, BFH and CHEF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) ALB 2) GILD 3) PRMW 4) PAYO 5) WMB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) PPCB 2) KLAC 3) SFIX 4) NAVN 5) SNDK

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) SOXX 2) ARKK 3) DRAM 4) IGV 5) NASA

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-06-11T14:22:22.840-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

None of note

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for June is estimated to rise to 46.0 versus 44.8 in May.
Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for June is estimated to rise to +4.9% versus expectations of a +4.8% gain in May.

Upcoming Splits

KLAC 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (BBY) annual meeting, (TOST) annual meeting, (REGN) annual meeting and the (FTNT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

2026-06-11T13:06:57.407-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -8.7% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 +1.1
7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
61.3% of Issues Advancing, 36.5% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.19 +30.8%
Non-Block Money Flow +$225.5M
79 New 52-Week Highs, 64 New Lows
52.6% (unch.) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 51.0 -1.1

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% -1.0 percentage point
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 25.0% -8.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 16.0% -1.0 percentage point
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 35.0% -1.0 percentage point
US Invades Iran before 2027 26.0% +8.0 percentage points

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 119.6 +.6%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 66.0 +1.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 96.0% -1.0 percentage point
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 445.25 -.25 basis point
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.4 +.5%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 153.3 +.8%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) -2.0
1-Day Vix 19.9 -16.6%
Vix 21.4 -3.6%
Total Put/Call .89 -3.3%

Thursday Watch

2026-06-10T22:57:20.534-04:00

Around X:

@Business

The US military said it had launched strikes against “multiple” targets in Iran for the second day in a row after Trump accused the country of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal.
South Korea and the EU said North Korea will “never” be recognized as a nuclear-weapon state, reaffirming their commitment to denuclearization days after China and North Korea pledged closer ties at a summit.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has introduced legislation that would ban youth under the age of 16 from using social media platforms operated by firms such as Meta and X unless the companies meet a set of "safety" standards.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

Trump Says 'We'll Bomb The Sh*t Out Of Them' Tomorrow Too If No Deal, After Dozens Of Tomahawks Hit Iran.
*OpenAI Price Cuts Could Threaten Margins, Profits Ahead of Potential IPO, Sources Say -- WSJ.
*OpenAI Expects Anthropic to Reduce Prices After Some Users Balk at AI Costs, Sources Say -- WSJ.
MSFT Restricts Internal Use Of Claude Fable Over Data-Retention Concerns; BMO Calls Anthropic A Leading Pure-Play AI Lab.
*IRAN SAYS TARGETS US FIFTH FLEET IN BAHRAIN: PRESS TV.
JPMorgan: AI Bills Are Out Of Control.
Kospi VIX: 88.
... make that 7 days. Token price index slide back to mid-January levels, fading much of the agentic frenzy of the past 3 months.
From FOMO To Oh No! Koreans Face Massive Forced Liquidations As AI Bubble Bursts.
Trump's claim Iranian officials spoke with him directly and asked the bombing to stop is completely false, no contact has been stablished with Trump; Iran responds to aggression with military action: Tasnim.
Iran Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander: Any ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will be dealt with firmly.
*TRUMP TELLS FOX NEWS IRAN BOMBING WILL STOP SHORTLY, LEAVES OPTION FOR MORE STRIKES.
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is declared closed to all types of vessels: ISNA.
Goldman Flags Tightening Power Grid In Texas Amid Rapid Data Center Growth.
The scary part isn't volatility. It's how little it takes to create it. Markets increasingly resemble a giant short-gamma ecosystem where relatively small flows can produce outsized price moves.
Explosions reported in Iranian towns of Sirik, Manab, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr.
RFK Jr. Responds To "Explosion" in Tick-Borne, WEF-Touted Alpha-Gal Syndrome.
Rioters clash with police in Belfast as unrest continues amid outrage over the attempted beheading of a man.
*IRAN SAYS IT WILL HIT NEW US TARGETS, TASNIM REPORTS.
Solar Tops Coal In US Power Mix For The First Month Ever.
Stop Destroying Civilization!.
Soft CPI, Soaring SOXS, & Cease-Ceasefire Trigger More Market Turmoil; Bullion Battered.

@CNBC

CNBC Daily Open: Trump expresses 'love' for inflation print and anger at Iran.
Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
Oil jumps as U.S. fresh strikes on Iran raise worries of extended disruption to energy flows.
Stock futures slip after U.S. launches additional strikes against Iran, oil rises: Live updates.
Oracle beats on earnings and revenue, adds $20 billion to planned capital raise.
Inflation accelerated in May as rising energy costs contributed to pain for consumers, though underlying pressures were less intense. The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus though the monthly number was 0.1 percentage point below the April reading. (graph)

@TheTranscript

$ORCL CFO: Oracle expects to raise ~$40B in FY27 debt & equity to fund AI infrastructure buildout "To support our capital investments program, we expect to raise around $40B in debt & equity in our FY 27, that includes our already announced $20B at-the-market equity issuance. We don't anticipate raising additional debt funding in calendar year 2026"
$ORCL CFO: CapEx acceleration is driven by deployment timing rather than inflation in hardware component costs.
$ORCL Oracle CFO Hilary Maxson: ""In terms of Q4, it was a record quarter, driven by strengths in both our cloud infrastructure and cloud apps business. Revenue was $19.2 billion, up 21% in US dollars. Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93%, reflecting strong demand for both AI workloads and our database services, and cloud apps was up double-digit at plus 10%."
$ORCL: "Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, ended the quarter at $638B, up 363% YoY and up $85B sequentially from the end of Q3....The large increases in Oracle’s RPO and revenue are driven by the growing demand for cloud infrastructure for AI training and inferencing."
Oracle double beat: Commentary: "Total quarterly revenues increased 21% to $19.2 billion, reflecting broad-based demand for Oracle's industry-leading cloud technology and applications suites" $ORCL: -2% AH.

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +.75 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 40.25 unch.
China Iron Ore Spot 101.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%.
Crude Oil 91.64/bbl. +1.8%
Gold 4,094.10 USD/t oz. -1.0%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.49 +.1%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.03 -.04%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 118.7 -.2%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.55% unch.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.89% +2.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.1 +3.0%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.98%.
S&P 500 futures -.01%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Inflation Worries, Profit-Taking, Tech/Construction Sector Weakness

2026-06-10T15:42:33.872-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.3 +1.4%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.9 +.9%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 unch.
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.22 unch.
European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.0 +.9%
Emerging Market CDS Index 153.2 +1.4%
Israel Sovereign CDS 51.8 -4.0%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 -.1
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.9 -.6

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.7 -3.5

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -44.2 +1.8

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.3 -1.0
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.80 +.16: Growth Rate +23.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.1 unch.
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 907.47 +.69: Growth Rate +75.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.5 unch.
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 -11.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 41.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 178.7 -1.6%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.60 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.6% +1.4 percentage points
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.54% +3.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 -5.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.0% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 63.7%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -620 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -266 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -85 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my energy/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

2026-06-10T15:02:18.938-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth -1.7%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Airlines -4.6% 2) Gold & Silver -4.0% 3) Computer Hardware -3.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

HSBC, MT, RCUS, HMY, SOFI, GKOS, CEG, JKS, STM, CROX, ENSG, PHYS, MAMA, MRVL, ARCB, XP, AVGO, LMB, CELC, SWBI, TFII, BLD, GM, TOYO, AEM, UMC, XPO, BILL, AAL, AGI, GFI, AKR, TLN, NET, PPTA, SLM, NXT, ODFL, GLXY, FCEL, CAT, OMDA, FLNC, VSH, GEV, DMRA, TNGX, AU, FLNC, SW, INSM, SKM, CCJ, METC, GNRC, DRUG, FPS, SAIL, PRE, DNTH, PRIM, SA, ADUR, QXO, HIMX, CGEM, WOLF, BE, SMMT, EZPW, LAZ and SMCI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) EWG 2) EQT 3) BNY 4) EOSE 5) MMM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) UNFI 2) CRM 3) DBI 4) CRNC 5) MRVL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) ITA 2) RAAX 3) BAI 4) KWEB 5) SKYY

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-06-10T14:48:36.717-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Energy +2.3% 2) Oil Service +1.0% 3) Telecom +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

FAC, CBRL, VELO, CASY, HROW, UNFI, ALOY, MUSA, TGTX, AAOI, CHA, APPS, DXYZ, TTI, OFRM, BJRI, HOOD, ELF, CAVA, BKH, NWE, DKNG, TLK, FUN, PENN, ZLAB, BILI, NP, GLIBK, BROS, NTES, CNK, LMND, RNR, AMRX, ICHR, CPB, RYAN, VPG, AVO, DQ, RSI, TEM, OOMA, YUMC, TEO, CRDO and PTRN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) HPP 2) SGML 3) NRG 4) CBRL 5) CRK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) CBRL 2) CASY 3) CLOV 4) FRMI 5) SJM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) SMH 2) IGV 3) ESML 4) CHAT 5) XLK

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-06-10T14:26:27.768-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(DRVN)/.24

After the Close:

(ADBE)/5.82
(LEN)/1.24
(RH)/-2.12

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 220K versus 225K the prior week.
Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1785K versus 1777K prior.
PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.4% gain in April.
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in April.

12:00 am EST

Household Change in Net Worth for 1Q.

Upcoming Splits

KLAC 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The ECB Meeting, 30Y T-Bond auction, OPEC Monthly Report, WASDE report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report. (ENS) investor day, (WFRD) annual meeting, (GNRC) annual meeting, (OLLI) annual meeting, (IR) annual meeting, (CMG) annual meeting, (LYV) annual meeting, (ASTS) annual meeting, (CPNG) annual meeting, (ZM) annual meeting, (HON) investor day, (HIMS) annual meeting and the Davidson Tech/Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

2026-06-10T13:54:08.276-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -6.0% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 -2.5
4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
49.4% of Issues Advancing, 48.3% Declining
TRIN/Arms .88 -3.3%
Non-Block Money Flow -$34.6M
105 New 52-Week Highs, 44 New Lows
53.4% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 52.1 +1.4

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 33.0% -5.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 17.0% -3.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 36.0% -9.0 percentage points
US Invades Iran before 2027 18.0% -1.0 percentage point

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 119.5 -.4%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 65.0 -7.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 97.0% +14.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 445.75 +5.75 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.5 -2.0%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.3 -2.6%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 29.0 (FEAR) unch.
1-Day Vix 20.7 +.4%
Vix 21.8 +9.5%
Total Put/Call .87 -9.4%

Mid-Day Market Internals

2026-06-10T13:48:20.635-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -6.0% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 -2.5
4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
49.4% of Issues Advancing, 48.3% Declining
TRIN/Arms .88 -3.3%
Non-Block Money Flow -$34.6M
105 New 52-Week Highs, 44 New Lows
53.4% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 52.1 +1.4

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 33.0% -5.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 17.0% -3.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 36.0% -9.0 percentage points
US Invades Iran before 2027 18.0% -1.0 percentage point

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 119.5 -.4%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 65.0 -7.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 97.0% +14.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 445.75 +5.75 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.5 -2.0%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.3 -2.6%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 29.0 (FEAR) unch.
1-Day Vix 20.7 +.4%
Vix 21.8 +9.5%
Total Put/Call .87 -9.4%

Wednesday Watch

2026-06-09T22:00:25.265-04:00

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.0 -.5 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 40.25 -.25 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
Crude Oil 89.0/bbl. +.9%
Gold 4,215.60 USD/t oz. -1.6%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.48 -.15%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.0 -.03%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 120.5 +.5%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.54% +2.0 basis points.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.87% -2.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.3%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.31%.
S&P 500 futures -.20%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Sector Rotation, Mideast War Resumption Fears, Profit-Taking, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

2026-06-09T14:59:18.523-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.9 +.01%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.1 +.5%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 -1.0 basis point
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.22 +3.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.5 +.2%
Emerging Market CDS Index 150.9 -.6%
Israel Sovereign CDS 54.0 -1.6%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 -.1
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.5 -.3

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.2 -.3

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.0 +1.2

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 44.3 +4.1
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.64 +.59: Growth Rate +23.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.1 -.4
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.48% +1.0 basis point
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 906.78 +8.17: Growth Rate +74.9% +1.6 percentage points, P/E 18.5 -.8
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.07 +13.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.6 -.8%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.2% -.4 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% +.3 percentage point
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.53% -3.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -5.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.0% (+5.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 60.1%(+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -710 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -300 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +109 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

2026-06-09T14:12:24.705-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Growth -1.4%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Semis -4.6% 2) Computer Hardware -4.6% 3) Alt Energy -4.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

MU, VMET, VRT, INTC, STM, MDA, NICE, HPE, ATEX, NXT, POWL, AEVA, SYM, SYNA, HPE, AG, GRRR, USAR, HLIT, RUN, RKLB, FSLR, ASST, LSCC, AMBA, ERIC, LEU, OSS, OPTX, ON, JKS, AMSC, NOK, STRL, IRDM, INOD, PENG, OPTX, PL, CLS, NOW, ALAB, MSTR, CEVA, QUIK, ALM, UUUU, DUOT, DELL, CIEN, TSEM, INFQ, OUST, LPTH, IDYA, NNE, FIVN, ADTN, QCOM, MAMA, SOC, PCT, ADTN, GLW, ARM, NVTS, UMAC, SMCI, UTI, LITE, QBTS, ENPH, AOSL, IONQ, ALOY, VOYG, MXL, RGTI, DXYZ, MRVL, UNFI, SEDG, COHR, SAIL, HIMX, POET, WOLF, AAOI, PRIM, RDW and UEC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) EXE 2) XLP 3) SRAD 4) WMB 5) NXE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) UNFI 2) CRM 3) DBI 4) CRNC 5) MRVL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) IGV 2) XME 3) XBI 4) IYH 5) ITA

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-06-09T13:58:16.402-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Gambling +3.4% 2) Homebuilding +2.9% 3) Airlines +2.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

NUVL, ALHC, FCEL, FAC, AIAI, ADUR, VECO, IFS, CECO, AVO, ZVRA, SJM, DKNG, BOT, BAP, SN, ANRO, ACLS, MH, SRAD, APPS, POOL, MGNI, BKD, ASH, WPP, ICHR, PKE, FND, GPCR, SGHC, VNO, SLG, UCTT, KTB, LIFE, ALK, HAE, QXO, LINE, BLLN, RYAN, BCH, APH, ESTA, TOL, APH, ESTA, SKT, ELF, ASH, GRBK, CPNG, AAL, BSAC, MYE, CARR and TRNO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) SRAD 2) SJM 3) IYR 4) TECK 5) PAYO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) NUVL 2) FCEL 3) ZVRA 4) ODC 5) VECO

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) SOXX 2) DRAM 3) NASA 4) RAAX 5) XLF

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-06-09T13:31:40.776-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(CHWY)/.24
(CNM)/.53

After the Close:

(ORCL)/1.96
(OXM)/1.29
(SFIX)/-.06

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

The CPI MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in April.
The CPI Core MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in April.
Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for May.

10:30 am EST

Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -3,008,200 barrels versus a -7,974,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +402,600 barrels versus a +3,364,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -145,800 barrels versus a +1,502,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.14% versus a +.2% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

The Federal Budget Deficit for May is expected to come in at -$282.0B versus $215.0B in April.

Upcoming Splits

KLAC 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce Conference, Wells Fargo Industrials/Materials Conference, (NXPI) annual meeting, (DKS) annual meeting, (CAT) annual meeting, (SHAK) annual meeting, (FCX) annual meeting, (AAL) annual meeting, (AGX) annual meeting, (TGT) annual meeting, (DASH) annual meeting, (CGNX) investor meeting and the RBC Mining/Metals Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

2026-06-09T13:03:31.040-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +13.9% Above 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.3 +.5
6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
46.8% of Issues Advancing, 51.0% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.09 -10.7%
Non-Block Money Flow +$92.8M
120 New 52-Week Highs, 85 New Lows
52.3% (+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 50.7 -3.9

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 38.0% +3.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 20.0% +3.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 45.0% +1.0 percentage point
US Invades Iran before 2027 19.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 117.5 -2.6%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 72.0 +5.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 83.0% -2.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 440.75 +5.75 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.9 -2.3%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.4 -3.4%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 29.0 (FEAR) -14.0
1-Day Vix 25.0 +56.1%
Vix 23.2 +22.4%
Total Put/Call .99 +7.6%

Tuesday Watch

2026-06-08T23:04:24.607-04:00

Around X:

@Business

Trump very much seems to want the war in Iran to end, but increasingly, it looks like we may live with a low-grade version of the conflict for months to come.
Japan is currently undergoing the greatest budgetary reform process since the end of World War II, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama says.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk unveiled a more detailed look at an initial version of an AI data center satellite that the company plans to build, providing more insight into the project driving SpaceX’s highly anticipated IPO.
Bank of America Securities sees trouble ahead for the stock market.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

BREAKING: A magnitude 5.0 earthquake struck Sargaz in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province at a depth of 22km, according to Iranian state media, reports Reuters.
Chinese Article Warns VPN Use Alone Can Trigger Punishment Under Expanding Censorship Regime.
How A Tiny Insect Decimated Florida's Citrus, And What Orchardists Are Doing About It.
BREAKING: Iranian leadership loses contact with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
How safe is the bounce?
Several people have asked me to share some of the back and forth on that very bizarre chat with Gemini on SpaceX's amended filing. I won't share the whole thing, but here's where things started to go off the rails. (1/3).
"Replacing Lower Value Human Capital": Banks Cut Staff As Recent Grads Face Off Against AI For Jobs.
Xi Jinping Applauds Kim's 'Socialist Cause' In Warm North Korea State Visit.
House Report Finds Minnesota Officials Ignored Fraud To Avoid Racism Accusations.
*OPENAI SUBMITTED CONFIDENTIAL S-1 TO SEC FOR IPO.
Campbell's CEO Serves Up Warning For Restaurants As "Resilient" At-Home Cooking Trend Gains Steam.
Sam Bankman-Fried 'Absolutely' Wants A Presidential Pardon.
USDA TO TRIAL IVERMECTIN IN FEED TO CONTROL SCREWWORM IN WILD.
Bitcoin Bid As Stocks 'Dead Cat Bounce', But History Shows Friday's Low Gets Re-Tested.

@CNBC

CNBC Daily Open: Tim Cook's last WWDC, tech IPOs and Middle East tensions.
Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
Stock futures are little changed after chip rebound lifts S&P 500 to winning day: Live updates.
The Pentagon added a slew of Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group, Baidu Inc and carmaker BYD, to a list of entities it believes have aided the Chinese military, complicating the fragile diplomatic relationship between Washington and Beijing. The Defense Department will be prohibited from contracting directly with listed companies starting later this month. Click here to read more:The Pentagon added a slew of Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group, Baidu Inc and carmaker BYD, to a list of entities it believes have aided the Chinese military, complicating the fragile diplomatic relationship between Washington and Beijing. The Defense Department will be prohibited from contracting directly with listed companies starting later this month. Click here to read more:

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.75% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 -.5 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 40.5 -1.0 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 100.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.32%.
Crude Oil 90.62/bbl. -.74%
Gold 4,358.80 USD/t oz. -.11%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.50 -.02%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.98 +.03%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 121.0 +.4%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.56% unch.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% +2.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.1 +.5%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.33%.
S&P 500 futures +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

2026-06-08T15:33:49.719-04:00

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -1.2%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.9 -.1%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 +2.0 basis points
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.25 +7.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.4 +.4%
Emerging Market CDS Index 151.5 -.2%
Israel Sovereign CDS 54.8 -1.3%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.2
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 -1.0

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.5 -.7

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.2 +1.3

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.2 +.3
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +27.9% -.1 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.05 +.80: Growth Rate +23.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.4
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 898.61 +4.60: Growth Rate +73.3% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.8
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -28.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 39.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 183.0 +.3%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.6% -.1 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.55% +2.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +3.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 85.8% (+.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 57.3%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,720 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -165 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

2026-06-08T15:04:33.871-04:00

Style Underperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Utilities -1.7% 2) Electrification -1.4% 3) Insurance -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

TEL, ALNY, NEXA, AMLX, BKD, MLYS, VSAT, WAY, SA, TTAN, AMRZ, OCS, CLF, CIEN, DXYZ, GHRS, ANDG, GWRE, SHAZ, APAM, KB, PRAA, JBIO, DRUG, ENSG, TLK, FCEL, AGX, TOYO and BRC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) NFE 2) NNDM 3) IRDM 4) OPTU 5) HLT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) FCEL 2) ENSG 3) CHKP 4) ADCT 5) WIX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) IGV 2) XLP 3) SMH 4) XLV 5) XLE

Charts:

Bull Radar

2026-06-08T14:56:30.622-04:00

Style Outperformer:

Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Semis +6.4% 2) AI Innovation +5.5% 3) Oil Service +3.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

TNGX, GLXY, ALOY, MRVL, AAOI, INTC, BOT, ZVRA, OCTV, OSCR, AIAI, MU, IDYA, ASST, SYNA, ADEA, PENG, CRDO, NNE, SRAD, CLYM, PI, RMBS, AMBA, FLNC, PRGO, ARCB, STM, ASML, TREX, ADTN, CXW, MRIX, ELF, BELFB, CEVA, CALY, INR, BBCP, AAP, CLB, CDE, GEO, PLAB, EBC, BTDR, INFQ, STRC, MYE, MEC, PLXS, EPAC, SOFI, SATA, LQDA and WSBC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) EQX 2) ABAT 3) GENI 4) IAG 5) GLXY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) TNGX 2) CLIK 3) OCC 4) MPAA 5) INTC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) DRAM 2) IYH 3) XLF 4) AIQ 5) ITA

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

2026-06-08T13:57:28.709-04:00

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ASO)/.91
(SJM)/2.64
(SAIL)/.04
(UNFI)/.76

After the Close:

(CASY)/3.31
(CBRL)/-.48

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May is estimated to rise to 96.0 versus 95.9 in April.

8:30 am EST

Imports MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +2.3% gain in March.
Exports MoM for April is estimated to rise +2.6% versus a +2.0% gain in March.

10:00 am EST

Existing Home Sales for May is estimated to rise to 4.06M versus 4.02M in April.
Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for April.

Upcoming Splits

KLAC 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, 3Y T-Note auction, ADP Employment Change Weekly, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Mizuho Tech Conference, Goldman Healthcare Conference, BofA Financials Conference, Wells Fargo Industrials/Materials Conference, (BIIB) general meeting, (TJX) annual meeting, (FCFS) annual meeting, (MELI) annual meeting, (ULTA) annual meeting, (RBRK) analyst day, (ZS) investor meeting, (ETR) investor day, (CME) annual meeting, (NET) investor day, (CZR) annual meeting and the DA Davidson Tech/Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

2026-06-08T12:53:50.861-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -13.3% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.5 +1.8
3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
54.0% of Issues Advancing, 44.0% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.32 +78.4%
Non-Block Money Flow -$105.6M
70 New 52-Week Highs, 61 New Lows
52.4% (-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 54.6 -1.8

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% +1.0 percentage point
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 35.0% +2.0 percentage points
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 17.0% +3.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 44.0% +9.0 percentage points
US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.1 +1.2%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 67.0 -24.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 85.0% -5.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 434.5 -2.0 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.9 +1.2%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 158.0 +1.2%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +1.0
1-Day Vix 13.4 -53.2%
Vix 18.6 -13.6%
Total Put/Call .86 -10.4%

Monday Watch

2026-06-07T22:21:08.261-04:00

Around X:

@Business

South Korean stocks dropped, led by steep losses in chipmaker shares on an intensifying rotation out of artificial intelligence beneficiaries.
Nvidia and SK Hynix have agreed to partner on designing future generations of memory chips for AI, a win for the South Korean leader in top-end semiconductors.
South Korea’s Naver agreed to build data centers based on Nvidia's models in a move to clinch its dominance in the country’s artificial intelligence landscape.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year due to a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Banks are gearing up for widespread job cuts due to AI and it's not just junior positions that are at risk.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@Zerohedge

Iran Fires Missiles At Israel In First Since April, After IDF Airstrike On Beirut; Trump Urges Israel To Hold Back.
'Everyone's Got A Plan 'Til They Get Punched In The Mouth': 3 Things Top Goldman Quant Learned On Friday.
The Shocking Impact Of Memory "Chipflation" On Soaring Producer Prices: A Morgan Stanley Deep Dive.
Second worst day ever for long beta momentum stocks
.
*
SK HYNIX, SAMSUNG PLUNGE MORE THAN 9% IN PRE-MARKET ON NEXTRADE
.
*TRUMP SAYS HE'S NOT HAPPY ABOUT ISRAEL'S INITIAL ATTACKS: FOX. *TRUMP TO FOX: ISRAEL'S EARLIER ATTACKS NOT COORDINATED WITH US. *TRUMP TO FOX: CLOSE TO A DEAL W/ IRAN AND NOW THIS TAKES PLACE
.
Scott Pelley says Bari Weiss asked 60 Minutes staffers: “Why do you think the country thinks you’re biased?" Pelley: "Why do you think so? Do you have a poll? Is there market research? What are you talking about?" "Because we certainly didn't believe that." Incredible. omg
.
New York Legislature Passes Data Center Moratorium
.
Angry Pentagon Sources Leak Report Of Israel's 'Unhinged' Spying On US Officials
.
100 Day Mark: Iran Threatens Renewed Attacks On US-Israeli Bases, Citing IDF Escalation In Lebanon.
*IRAN SAYS US CAN'T USE FROZEN ASSETS TO COMPENSATE ALLIES.
Hartnett: Brace For June Event Risk, And CPI Print That Could Pop The Bubble.
Choose One: Housing Is Shelter, Or Housing Is Just Another Asset In A Bubble Economy.
Playing The Broadening Trade & Hedging AI; Top Goldman Trader Sees 'No Rates Reprieve'.
BREAKING: Qatar has issued a NOTAM redirecting flights from its airspace and providing alternative routes for flights departing Doha and Saudi airports, effective from June 7 to June 14.
SpaceX is "crashing" on Hyperliquid - before it even lists on Nasdaq. What's happening: A crypto exchange called Hyperliquid let people bet on SpaceX's price BEFORE it goes public on June 12. Launched May 18 at $150. Peaked at $216. Today: $163 (down ~25% from peak). Actual IPO price: $135. These aren't real shares. They're synthetic bets settled in stablecoins. No voting rights. No ownership. Just a wager on the valuation. Not available to US users. (graph)
'I Could've Kept It That Way': Trump Admits The Inflation Is His Choice - For A War That 'Isn't A War'.
1/ They are neither committed to a ceasefire nor believe in dialogue, and by demonstrating through the naval blockade and violation of agreements regarding Lebanon that they only understand the language of power.
Americans' Average Monthly Mortgage Payment Tops $2000 For The First Time Ever.
We will deliver a decisive and painful response to the Zionist regime's attack on Dahiyeh. These rabid dogs must be disciplined and put back in their place. Look at the sky over the occupied lands tonight. Iran warns it will strike Israel.
Iran FM Blames U.S. "Contradictions" On Stalled Peace Talks As Tehran Slaps Million-Dollar Hormuz Tax On Ships.
UK Cop Fired For Questioning Islam In 'Safe Space'.
*TRUMP SAYS HE WANTS TO 'GO BIGGER ON THE MILITARY': NBC. *TRUMP TO NBC:COSTS VERY LITTLE TO KEEP TROOPS IN IRAN OPERATION.
*TRUMP TO NBC IF HE'D UNFREEZE IRAN ASSETS AS PART OF DEAL: NO. *TRUMP SAYS NO PLANS TO WITHDRAW US TROOPS FOR TIME BEING: NBC. *TRUMP SAYS WANTS MORE SURGICAL ISRAELI STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH:NBC.
Greater Fed Tightening Odds Force A Risk Appetite Reset.
Just intv’d Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei: His points: - “The main problem of negotiating with this administration is that you have to face so many changing positions, moving the goal posts, different statements, contradictory remarks by different officials, so it makes the whole process very cumbersome,” Baghaei said. - “Americans must understand that they have to recognize Iran’s rights,” including its right to peaceful nuclear enrichment under the international non-proliferation treaty.” - The US must “simply must stop their sanctions,” Baghaei told CNN. “As far as the sanctions and blocked assets are concerned, they simply need to let Iranian assets be released and be available for the Iranians.”
Most Teens Aren't Going To Social Media For Politics.
Lebanese Army Officers Among 9 Killed In Israeli Airstrike On South Lebanon.
Why mood in hedge funds is dismal: one either chases momentum (and risks a day like Friday and angry investors) or does the usual L/S thing and has the worst performance since 2023 (and angry investors). GS HF VIP less most short basket, a proxy for LS HFs, is getting steamrolled.
A Deep Dive Inside Friday's Market Meltdown: "When Delta Collapses Under Its Own Weight".

@CNBC

CNBC Daily Open: Washington's 'war of choice' extends past 100-day mark.
Oil prices rise after Iran fires missiles at Israel, escalating regional tensions.
Stock futures fall after Nasdaq rout as investors look ahead to SpaceX IPO: Live updates.
OPEC+ set for fourth oil quota hike since Strait of Hormuz closure, sources say.

@MarioNawful

BREAKING. Iranian MP & National Security Commission spokesperson Ebrahim Rezaei: “We will give a decisive and painful response to the Zionist regime’s attack on Dahiyeh. We must discipline these dogs and put them in their place. Tonight you will see the skies over the occupied territories.” Beirut was Iran’s red line and Israel didn't respect that....
The Pentagon espionage bombshell just got worse... New reporting confirms Israel has been eavesdropping on the American peace negotiators themselves. The targets named: Steve Witkoff, Trump's top negotiator with Iran. Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's policy chief. And Michael DiMino, who runs Middle East policy. Israel wasn't just collecting on America generally. It was listening to the specific men writing the deal Netanyahu opposes. What's wild is the documented incidents read like operations against an enemy state.
Tulsi Gabbard allegedly received the Israel critical threat report 18 days ago, and resigned three days later. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the report was deliberately slow-rolled until Section 224 passed the House, giving Israel unprecedented access to U.S. intelligence and defense technology. The U.S. just labeled Israel its most aggressive spy threat and handed them the keys to the vault the same week. "You just robbed the bank. Want to be the bank manager?" (video)
Trump to the Financial Times, minutes ago: Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept whatever deal the US negotiates with Iran, because "I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn't call the shots." Trump also confirmed the leaked call in which he reportedly told Netanyahu: "You're fucking crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this." He did not dispute the characterization.
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel tonight… and the footage is straight out of a nightmare. The rockets are covered with satanic imagery, pentagrams, a horned devil figure, and explicit references to the “Epstein class.” They even painted religious declarations invoking “the God of Christ and Moses” while claiming to fight global corruption and usury. (video)

@WallStreetApes

Here we go, the Los Angeles Times is admitting that yes, tens of thousands of mail in ballots did get processed for only Mayor Karen Bass and Nithya Raman but it was “a glitch”. They say the system just “glitched” for a minute and didn’t process any ballots for Spencer Pratt but really there were ballots for Spencer, they just didn’t get processed during the “glitch”. No, we don’t believe you. This is fraud and Democrats are cheating. (video)

@Megatron_ron

BREAKING: Despite Trump warning to Netanyahu, Israel just started bombing Beirut.

@JodyChaseTN

TRENDING. Jimmy Dore just went OFF on Tucker Carlson’s show over what he calls the failed cover-up surrounding the Charlie Kirk assassination. The conversation is already getting people talking across social media. What are your thoughts on his take? (video)

@MJTruthUltra

IT’S TIME. SEND IN THE MILITARY! Spencer Pratt had nearly a 12+ point advantage over Nithya Raman the night of election. After several days of non-stop fraudulent mail-in ballots, the latest update tonight shows Spencer Pratt is now on track to finish in THIRD PLACE. There will be ZERO Republican choices in the November election. Los Angeles will only be given democrats to choose from California rigged it once again. (pic)

@Polymarket

JUST IN: Verizon CEO says the company’s new AI customer service agents scored "1,280 basis points" higher on customer satisfaction than humans.

@robbystarbuck

ChatGPT can’t find a single example of a 3rd place candidate surging, days AFTER Election Day, to overtake 2nd place. It couldn’t find 1 example in all of American history. That’s what’s happening with Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt. Los Angeles has 3rd world country elections.
Can anyone point me to a time where a third place candidate (3 days AFTER an election) suddenly has a surge where they start winning 1st place in every new drop by winning 40% of the votes in the batch? Try not to name a third world country. This is getting absolutely absurd. (video)

@EricLDaugh

OMG. President Trump CUTS OFF and WALKS OUT of a Kristen Welker interview He looks her in the eyes and tells her SHE'S A LIAR, then storms off! "The elections are like a 3rd world country. YOU'RE CROOKED...let's call it QUITS. I've HAD ENOUGH." WELKER: Please, I traveled all the way to Wisconsin! TRUMP: "I've sat in the RAIN with you for an HOUR! I've given you enough time. You ought to straighten out your press. You know what? A country can never be great with a dishonest press. Let's GO." WELKER: *Whines*. (video)
WOW! President Trump just said Israel BETTER NOT strike back against Iran, or the peace deal is SCREWED. He tells Axios: "If Bibi strikes them back it’s just gonna keep GOING like the last 47 years, or the last 3000 years!" "The Iranian strikes [on Israel] didn't hurt ANYBODY. Hopefully ISRAEL is not going to retaliate. "We are very close to a final deal with Iran. It is going to be a good deal. I don’t want it to blow up because of what is happening now!" 47 is CALLING Netanyahu, saying DON'T STRIKE! (video)
HOLY CRAP!! FA US Attorney Bill Essayli reveals not only is California BLOCKING a federal audit of the state's voter rolls......but people can vote with GYM MEMBERSHIP CARDS as proof of ID, along with insurance cards that can be given to illegal aliens. This HAS TO BE BANNED! California is STILL counting ballots, and a lot remain.

@DiligentDenizen

BASED @grok lays out why Section 224 about to pass the US House MERGING Israeli technology into US military critical infrastructure is a BAD IDEA. Israel has stolen our tech before and sold it to adversaries, including China. (video)

@ShaneCashman

There’s literally nothing weird about Thomas Matthew Crooks emailing a deputy from Butler, PA before the assassination attempt. It’s not weird that he practiced shooting at the same range Homeland Security used. It’s not weird that the local police and Secret Service spotted Crooks with a rangefinder, photographed him, and texted about him for over an hour and still let him climb the roof with a rifle. It’s not weird that the Secret Service wasn’t flying drones that day, but Crooks was. It’s not weird that Butler was the first Trump rally of the year with Secret Service anti-sniper agents on the roofs. It’s not weird that Crooks’ house looked like a sterile lab with no trash or silverware. And it’s not weird that his body was cremated ten days later before Congress could see it. This is like when people say the CIA was shadowing Oswald before he, and he alone, shot JFK.

@C_3C_3

Over the last 20 years… Elections decided on Election Night: Republicans: 52%. Democrats: 48%. Elections decided AFTER Election Night: Republicans: 20%. Democrats: 80%. This is totally insane. Nothing to see here…

@NicHulscher

GOOGLE TO CONDUCT ONE OF THE LARGEST OPEN-AIR BIOLOGICAL EXPERIMENTS IN AMERICAN HISTORY. 64 MILLION bacteria-infected mosquitoes are set to be released into the wild pending EPA approval... This could result in IRREVERSIBLE ecosystem disruptions. (video)

@EndWokeness

Mail-ins arriving before Election Day: Bass: 38.1%. Pratt: 27.9%. Raman: 20%. Mail-ins arriving after Election Day: Raman: 37% (+17% surge). Bass: 34.9% (-3% drop). Pratt: 19% (-9% drop). Who are we kidding here? This is fraud.

@GeneralMCNews

BREAKING: The “secret footage” released by TPUSA and Erika Kirk claiming Charlie named her his successor before the assassination has been community noted for being fake and edited.

@FTT1776

Sen Mike Lee confirmed on Glenn Beck: JD Vance can walk into the Senate ANY TIME he wants and immediately take the Presiding Officer chair. As VP, he’s the constitutional ‘President of the Senate’, he doesn’t need permission. JD VANCE, make your mark, the Country needs you!

@DavidJHarrisjr

JUST IN: Canada just criminalized the Bible. Bill C-9 has passed the Senate, removing key religious protections and opening the door for Scripture to be treated as “hate speech.” Quoting the Bible on marriage, sin, or God’s design for sexuality can now lead to prosecution for “willful promotion of hatred.” This is a direct attack on Christianity and religious freedom in Canada. Brothers and sisters — the time to stand is now. Pray for Canada. Speak the truth boldly. Defend the Gospel while we still can.

@financeLancelot

Google $GOOG just released an AI tool called TurboVec that shrinks memory requirements by 92%.

@BullTheoryio

BREAKING: President Trump wants to give every American a piece of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI. Speaking on Air Force One yesterday, Trump said the government is exploring a plan where AI companies give the American public a direct ownership stake making every citizen a partner in the AI boom. He plans to meet AI executives next week to discuss it. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman first pitched this idea to Trump in early 2025 proposing that AI companies voluntarily give the US government equity stakes so that ordinary Americans, not just shareholders, benefit from the AI revolution. (pic)

@OCOCReport

WARNING: They’re turning American farmers into data slaves. The Palantir–USDA deal “One Farmer, One File” a permanent government digital profile tracking every farmer’s land, finances, crops, and livestock. Drones are already vaccinating cows. Satellites + AI are next. They call it “efficiency.” It’s the infrastructure for total control over America’s food supply. Voluntary today. Mandatory tomorrow. This is how food sovereignty dies. America is being farmed — not the land.

Night Trading

Asian indices are -3.75% to -1.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 +2.0 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 41.5 +1.0 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%.
Crude Oil 93.37/bbl. +3.1%
Gold 4,348.1 USD/t oz. -.4%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.51 +.26%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.98 -.05%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 118.9 -.7%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.56% +3.0 basis points.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.95% +4.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.8%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.1%.
S&P 500 futures +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the week.