Bill Evans' Weather Chat

It's Wet & Wild Across the NYC Area This Morning! Let's Get Going!

WABC — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 05:52:54 -0500

Get Your Rain Gear! Big Range in Temps! 30s North, 40s NYC & L.I., 50-60 Central & Southern Jersey!

Good Morning,

Today will be providing the Eastern Region with some pretty remarkable temperature contrasts... This is something that

has been pretty well-advertised throughout the week, but because of the potential for a very large margin of error, we were

reluctant to change temperature forecasts with each new run of the models... Spring hasn't even arrived yet -- and its not even

March, but these kinds of cases are something we must get used to, because they're fairly typical during the months of March

and April... The regional radar mosaic early this morning has been showing precipitation streaking eastward across

Pennsylvania and into southern New York State/southern New England... In addition to some light rain, there has also been

some wet snow, especially in the higher elevations... This will tend to leave behind a slushy coating to an inch or so, especially

on non-paved surfaces in the Poconos, the Catskills, in parts of the Hudson Valley and in northwestern New Jersey, there are

some Winter Weather Advisories in effect for some of the aforementioned places until 9 o'clock this morning... Just prior to 3

a.m. this snow was also coming down pretty heavily in Orange, Rockland, northern Westchester, Putnam and Fairfield counties

(all are located less than 40 miles north of New York City)...

So, why will the surge of very mild air get "cut off" over the mid-Atlantic states, resulting in temperatures no higher than the 40s

on Long Island and in southeastern New England, while it will reach the 70s across much of Maryland and in southern

Delaware?? The answer is that along a slow-moving warm front, which will probably only advance as far north and east as the

Greater Philadelphia Area and South Jersey this afternoon, will have a new wave of low pressure developing along it... That will

cause an eastern wind off the relatively cold waters of the Atlantic to be drawn towards New York City, northern New Jersey and

much of northeastern Pennsylvania... East to northeast winds to average 12-25 mph in these same locations early this morning

before the atmosphere becomes more stable, and it'll also enhance rainfall during the morning and midday hours... Then this

afternoon, winds will be relatively light in the "coolest spots", which will remain quite cloudy and damp... Conversely, the warmer

air that will successfully punch into areas along the mid-Atlantic coastal plain will be accompanied by an increasing wind... And,

as the next cold front pushes through the region late this afternoon and this evening, there may even be a brief, but heavy

shower and thunderstorm as far north as central Delaware and/or extreme southern New Jersey...

As we tried to point out yesterday, the European global model (and actually, the N.A.M./W.R.F. mesoscale model, too) was

starting to imply that this 'triple point low' would form, effectively pinching off that warm sector... We were reluctant to abandon

the ideas that the G.F.S. had that it would be milder, because we wanted this model to also gravitate more towards the cooler

solution -- and during the last 12-18 hours, it has... Our focus will start shifting away from huge temperature contrasts and rain

tonight and more towards some very strong wind gusts that will be occurring late today, tonight and tomorrow across the

Eastern Region... And, while a low pressure system in southeastern Canada will be still be deepening tonight and tomorrow,

the models do imply that a very strong "jet streak" will be positioned over Maryland, Delaware and Virginia... So, we're going to

be emphasizing the importance of mentioning strong winds late today, tonight and tomorrow -- some of the gusts will be near or

just past 50 miles per hour... The weekend will be colder, too with temperatures mostly in the 40s both days... Sunday will

feature plenty of sunshine and less wind, and then dry weather should prevail early next week... Have a good weekend !!!

It's Rock & Roll Weather for NYC the Next Four Days!

WABC — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 04:59:07 -0500

The Mild Temps Will Rock Today & Friday, We'll Have to Roll with Bittter Wind & Cold Sat. & Sunday!

Good Morning,

As a wave of low pressure this morning slides across central New England, it'll be dragging a front across the mid-Atlantic

states... The regional radar mosaic shortly before 3 a.m. showed an area of showers occurring over southeastern New England,

as well as on eastern Long Island and along the Jersey Shore (albeit south of Long Beach Island)... This is associated with a

smaller, weaker wave that is moving off the coast of Virginia early today... Farther north and west, widely-separated showers of

rain and snow occurring across upstate New York and in western Pennsylvania are being forecasted by the "rapid refresh"

model to fall apart over the mountains before they ever get a chance to reach the coastal plain... Therefore, today should offer

no less than partial sunshine, and most temperatures will be in the mid and upper-50s... The winds out of the west (and even

the southwest in some locations) will average 12-25 mph, and should be the 'most active' this afternoon and this evening...

But, as we talked about at great length yesterday, this weather pattern won't wait very long to change, and thickening clouds

tonight will be followed by a couple of showers that will be spreading generally from southwest to northeast... At this point, it

appears that most of the showers will be occurring later tonight and tomorrow morning, except a little sooner in areas west of the

I-95 corridor... Prior shifts, just like us, have been pointing out that various global models still seem to be "somewhat at odds"

about how Friday's weather is going pan out around here... The Euro and Canadian/GGEM have been showing a "cooler and

wetter" look than the G.F.S. -- which does portray tomorrow as the kind of day where there are just a couple of scattered

showers, most of which will be occurring during the morning... The possibility of some thunder has been discussed, because

there's going to be some unseasonably warm air surging northward along the Carolina Coast and into Virginia... We tend to feel

at this point that any thunder and lightning will probably occur along the Delmarva Peninsula, but probably no farther north than

that... Of course, another item related to this issue is whether or not the atmosphere will just be too cool (and therefore, stable)

for any thunder to occur -- and the European model's solution would imply that temperatures tomorrow will be hard-pressed to

get out of the mid-50s (even the low-50s in areas north and west of I-95)... So, we're still in favor of "downplaying" the amount

of time that it'll be raining, and "playing up" the idea that it'll be very mild for late in February, which is still going to hold true,

regardless of whether or not the temperature is in the mid or upper-50s or the lower-60s... The south-facing shorelines are

going to be those which will be the coolest locations between now and Friday evening, which does sound very much like a

springtime forecast -- and therefore, very appropriate for this pattern... A wave of low pressure sliding across the Midwest

tonight and into the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow is expected to bring several inches of snow to places near cities such as

Chicago and Detroit, but it'll be way too mild for snow around here...

However, the cold front associated with that Great Lakes system is expected to push across the area tomorrow night with some

very gusty winds... Add to that the fact that the low pressure system will be deepening on Saturday as it heads into

southeastern Canada, and we'll have quite a pressure gradient situation setting up... We're still very concerned that some of

Saturday's wind gusts could be near or just past 50 mph, and then Sunday should turn out sunny and less windy...

Have a good day !!!

Ripples on the Way to NYC! Ripples of Showers & Mild Temps to 60 Degrees!

WABC — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 05:12:37 -0500

Colder and VERY Windy Weather on the Way for Saturday!

Good Morning,

Despite plenty of clouds early today, precipitation has either been very light and spotty, or non-existent

across the mid-Atlantic states and much of the Northeast... However, based on radar trends and some

of the echoes that have been appearing across parts of upstate New York, as well as in northeastern and

central Pennsylvania, it wouldn't hurt to mention a few sprinkles in these areas for a while this

morning... The leading edge of some much milder air continues to push eastward across New England,

and with a west to southwesterly wind much of the day, temperatures will climb well into the 50s across

the entire area... There won't be much of a drop in these temperatures occurring tonight, since there

should be plenty of clouds and a light, southwest wind...

Perhaps the biggest challenge that we'll be confronted with over the next 36 hours will be trying to

pinpoint exactly when there'll be a shower, and what times will just be dry... Because several small

impulses of upper-level energy are going to be moving very rapidly across the Great Lakes and into the

Northeast through Thursday, the timing and the placement of these showers is being handled differently

by just about every different computer model... In cases like these, we feel its best to just stick with

the previous forecast ideas... This would imply that during the next 24 hours, the most likely time

frames for rain will be late this afternoon into tonight across eastern Pennsylvania, much of central and

western Maryland and Delaware, but mainly tonight farther east across New York and New Jersey, and

late tonight into tomorrow morning across eastern New England... As for rainfall potential beyond

Thursday, we've already made it clear that with a new low pressure system developing in the Plains

states tomorrow and drifting into the Ohio Valley on Friday, our chances for getting a couple of showers

will be undergoing an uptick once again on Thursday night and throughout the day on Friday...

Regarding temperatures, we'll be watching very closely where a "back-door" front that will be slipping

out of the north tonight manages to get hung up tomorrow... Because, even though there may not be

any widespread rain during the daylight hours of Thursday, temperatures may be limited to the lower or

middle-50s in some places because of where this front ultimately winds up... We can envision how much

of southeastern Pennsylvania, South Jersey and Maryland still reach the lower and middle-60s in the

afternoon -- but a 'tight gradient' could mean temperatures no higher than the mid-50s across the Tri-

State Area, as well as across northeastern Pennsylvania...

And on Friday, we're still trying to convey the idea that it will be unseasonably mild out ahead of the cold

front, which will be approaching from the west... However, the actual track of the primary low pressure

system, and whether or not a "triple-point low" might form over the mid-Atlantic region on Friday

morning, which would very effectively pinch off the warm sector, will go a long way in determining

whether its no higher than the 50s, or it reaches the lower-60s... There's even ANOTHER POSSIBILITY

to consider: the front may reach the East Coast so late on Friday that actual high temperatures may be

reached during the evening...

We feel the most confident about what will happen in the wake of the front... There'll be lots on

instability, gusty winds and colder air on the way for Saturday... Temperatures will be mostly in the 40s

both days, and some of the winds Saturday may gust as high as 50 mph locally... In addition to that,

there may be a few sprinkles or flurries...

Have a good day!!!

It Only Gets Warmer Around NYC, No Cold Air to be Had Until Saturday!

WABC — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 10:36:45 -0500

Watching Saturday as it Could Prove to be Dangerously Windy!

Don't have any big changes at this time. Models continue to show the precip

approaching from the west falling apart as the vort max lifts off to the northeast. But we will not

rule out parts of the area getting a shower late this afternoon or this evening with the greatest

chance being in northern and western parts of the viewing area. It is going to be pretty tough to

nail down the timing on all these little features that will be coming through the region tomorrow

and Thursday. The idea of tomorrow being mainly dry followed by showers tomorrow night

looks OK but not confident about the morning only timing on Thursday. And one thing I can see

happening tomorrow night into Thursday, if the GFS is right with the max track, is a narrow band

of accumulating snow coming east roughly along the PA/NY border, to as far as the Poconos

and Catskills. Even the timing of the front on Friday varies from model to model with the NAM

faster than most other models, something that we rarely see. By Saturday though we have

pretty good agreement that it is a lot cooler and darn windy.

It Just Gets Warmer & Warmer Around NYC This Week!

WABC — Tue, 21 Feb 2012 04:39:52 -0500

We hit 60 degrees in parts of the area by Wednesday!

Good Morning,

The sky is clear early this morning and the temperature has plunged into the 20s in most of the typically

colder spots, and the lower-30s in the larger cities along the coast... The axis of a ridge of high pressure has

moved into a position almost directly atop the region, so the combination of a clear sky and very light winds

during the night has allowed for excellent radiational cooling to occur... Temperatures will wind up very close to

50 this afternoon with some early sunshine beginning to fade behind increasing clouds from mid or

late-morning on... We discussed yesterday that the leading edge of some even milder air will be moving

across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states this afternoon and early tonight... And, while a parcel of fairly

potent upper-level energy is most likely going to slide across areas well to the north and west of the I-95

corridor later this afternoon and this evening, there is also going to be a plume of moisture along the Carolina

Coast early today which will be advancing northward later this afternoon and early tonight... This situation is

probably one of the best case scenarios that defines "hit or miss" shower acitivity for later this afternoon and

this evening... And, those places which will have the best chance of seeing one later today will be north and

west of the City, and then the City and and most coastal areas will have the better chance for a shower early

tonight...

The rest of the workweek is going to bring with it some even milder air, and temperatures both tomorrow and

on Thursday will be mostly in the mid and upper-50s... There will probably even be a handful of places south

and west of the City that could reach 60 degrees as early as tomorrow afternoon... Much more of the Tri-State

Area, with the exceptions probably being the south-facing shores, will have an even better chance of reaching

60 degrees on Thursday... A strong, southwesterly flow of air will be tapping into very mild and moist air

originating from the Gulf of Mexico... And, while another ripple of energy will be moving through a rather

shallow trough in the jet stream over the Great Lakes and the Northeast's on Wednesday night and early

Thursday, the shower activity associated with it should be widely-separated... We now are only covering for a

shower on Thursday during the morning hours (actually, an extension of showers we're mentioning on

Wednesday night), and assuming that even if Thursday and Friday are rather cloudy days, they will also be

breezy to locally windy and quite mild for this time of year...

Friday, as a low pressure system cuts up well to our north and west (as so many have this winter season), it

will be pushing a cool front all the way to the East Coast very late in the day... Therefore, we will probably

encounter a couple of showers, winds that could gust as high as 35 miles per hour and some very balmy

conditions at the end of the week -- highs will be mostly in the lower-60s, except again near the south-facing

shorelines... Just like we were saying yesterday, "cooler" but not necessarily "colder" changes are in store for

the region behind this front over the weekend... Saturday appears as if it will be quite windy, and most

temperatures will be returning to the 40s... Sunday will also be in the 40s, and probably dry as well...

Have a great day!

Bright, Blue, and Windy Too! NYC to See 60 Degree Temps This week!

WABC — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 12:11:37 -0500

Still a bit windy with gusts this afternoon from 15-25mph and diminishing tonight.

Not much in the way of changes. Looks like mostly sunny for the afternoon as the shield of high and

mid level clouds continues away. Complex looking pattern for mid and late week later in week as

several relatively weak short waves move through the flow. Based on previous experience we are

thinking that the non-phasing ECMWF solution might be right with just a cold front coming through Friday

rather than both a front from the west and a storm from the south.

Depending on the timing of that front, Friday could bring near-record warmth and even some sun for a

time before the front moves in.

Warmer Weather on the Way to NYC This Week!

WABC — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 04:43:31 -0500

It's been a mild winter so why not 60 degree temps?? They're coming!!

Good Morning,

Despite some cloudiness early, this Presidents' Day will turn out mostly sunny, breezy and mild across most of the

region... High pressure that is located over the Great Lakes this morning will start building into the Northeast and the

mid-Atlantic states later on this afternoon and tonight... And, the storm that was talked about so extensively late last week has

managed to bring a significant snowfall to the southern Appalachians... Some of the highest elevations in southern West

Virginia, southwestern Virginia and northwestern North Carolina saw more than 6 inches... But, even some of the lower

elevations across central and southern Virginia fared pretty well, since Charlottesville and Richmond, Virginia had between 3

and 6 inches... The European global model seemed to be the form of guidance 'with the hottest hand' in forecasting the

outcome of this storm's scenario from several days away...

While temperatures this afternoon will be mostly in the middle and upper-40s, the mercury will be trending even higher

tomorrow and especially on Wednesday... Winds which have been primarily out of the north and northeast overnight (because

of the pressure gradient between the wave of low pressure heading out to sea and the high pressure zone to the north and

west) should eventually turn to the south and southwest by later on tomorrow and especially tomorrow night... With the leading

edge of milder air aloft reaching the Eastern Seaboard late tomorrow and tomorrow night, we cannot rule out the possibility of a

couple of widely-separated rain showers... Yesterday's mid-morning run of the European was hinting at this, and the

N.A.M./W.R.F. is showing an area of light rain converging on Long Island and southern New England late on Tuesday night...

The G.F.S. was also hinting at the rapid development of this Tuesday night shower activity in its 18z (early-afternoon) run

yesterday... But, the 00z run is now showing that a vigorous parcel of upper-level energy is going to be rolling through an area

well north and west of the big, coastal cities on Tuesday night... A strong disturbance in the jet stream flow digging farther to

the south will probably roll through the mid-Atlantic states late on Wednesday night and early Thursday... Therefore, many

places should have an even better chance of seeing a couple of rain showers...

Later this week, the various forms of numerical guidance show it getting even milder... Most temperatures on Wednesday,

Thursday and also Friday will climb well into the 50s, and even the lower-60s in the warmest spots... In fact, if the prevailing wind

flow becomes southwesterly both at the surface as well as aloft, it may very easily reach the lower-60s in several places on

Thursday... By Friday morning, the mid-Atlantic states and coastal locations in the Northeast will be in a warm sector -> south of a

warm front, but also east of a cold front that should reach the coastal plain on Friday night... This warm sector is what we call a

"dirty warm sector", because this is typically when, despite some very mild air, there are lots of clouds and also some rain

around... The very mild regime Thursday and Friday should be replaced by temperatures mostly in the lower or middle-40s next

weekend -- certainly far from what would be considered cold for late in February...

Have a good day!!!

Winter is gone!......For Now! Sunny & 53 for NYC!

WABC — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:01:03 -0500

Mild again tomorrow, as a snow storm passes by to the south.

The sun is breaking out and satellite loop suggests that there will be more sun than

clouds this afternoon. Temperature looks OK as we are going into cool advection and that should put

some limit on how high it can get. Adding mention of an afternoon or evening rain or snow shower

tomorrow late afternoon and evening, primarily for northern areas. NAM and GFS show precip very close

to if not even in the city with the short wave passing by to north. It will not be a big deal. No reason to

change Sunday based on latest models. NAM brings precip about up to I-78 and near the south shore of

Long Island while other models are a little south of that. I think the southern half of NJ gets some snow

out of this (maybe quite a bit) and it is close enough for the city to keep the chance while areas to the

north get missed.

What Winter??? Sunny and Mild This Weekend!

WABC — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 06:06:53 -0500

Snow Storm Stays South, Dry and Mild Into Next Week!

Good Morning,

Clouds early this morning are lingering once again across much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states, and there's also

some drizzle and fog out there early today in the wake of the most recent round of rainfall that occurred yesterday... In some of

the very highest elevations (especially in northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey and in southern New York

State), there can be a few slick spots this morning, with temperatures in the lower and middle-30s, patches of dense fog and

spotty drizzle... But, from mid-morning on, as the wind begins to shift to the west and southwest and it starts to increase a bit,

the clouds, fog and drizzle should break for some sunshine... Temperatures for the most part this afternoon will be in the

upper-40s or the lower-50s...

A high pressure system is forecasted to be centered over the central and southern Appalachians late today and tonight, which

will bring a mostly clear sky to the area overnight... Most temperatures, therefore, should wind up in the 20s in the typically

colder spots and the 30s in most of the larger cities and towns... With the President's Day Weekend almost upon us, we're

anticipating tomorrow to get off to a fairly sunny start... It will be mild for this time of year, but temperatures will probably average

some 2-4 degrees LOWER than today, due in large part to some lower morning temperatures... Obviously, all of the talk

recently has been about our "potential for snow and rain" around here on Sunday, and we do have a lot to say about this...

First of all, the body of low pressure has yet to form -- but it will tonight and early tomorrow along the Gulf Coast... Tomorrow and

tomorrow night, its track will be pushing it through the Deep South, and it will probably be located in Georgia or the western

Carolinas early on Sunday morning... So, we can now rule out the possibility that there may be some rain or snow occurring

along the mid-Atlantic coast and near the I-95 corridor as early as tomorrow night...

Beyond this time frame, the global models are starting to form more of a consensus now about keeping the future track well to

the south of the major East Coast cities... For what its worth, the G.F.S., or U.S. version of the medium range forecast model

has been "waffling back and forth", or shifting the position north and south with each run -- but it now seems to be gravitating

more towards the solution that the European model has... This is critical, because there is probably going to be a "razor-sharp"

cut-off line between areas that get some rain and snow on Sunday, and those that remain dry... At this time, it appears that this

line will be near or even south of the Mason-Dixon Line (the Pa/Maryland border, which runs through Delaware and extreme

South Jersey)... While most quantitative precipitation forecasts do call for about a tenth of an inch of liquid in Philadelphia, for

example -- the steadiest and heaviest rain and snow is probably going to be confined to areas south of Washington, D.C. and

Maryland's Eastern Shore... So, our forecasts will be reflecting these thoughts, and across much of southern New England, the

Greater New York City Metropolitan Area, northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania -- while it may be cold enough

aloft to allow for a period of snow, the moisture will be lacking... Any period of snow or rain in these aforementioned places

should be very brief, if it does happen at all... The "game changes" farther south, however -- and portions of central and

northern Virginia, West Virginia and the mountains of western North Carolina may see several inches of snow before the storm

is through... Have a good weekend!!!

Rain Moves in This Afternoon Around NYC! Watching a Snow/Rain Storm Sunday!

WABC — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 04:45:00 -0500

A Sunny Beauty on Friday with a High of 50, Who Could Believe Snow Could be on the Way!

Good Morning,

After spotty light rain across parts of New York and New England persisted through midday yesterday, partial clearing held off until

very late in the day... During the night however, the sky has been relatively clear as a bubble of high pressure remains anchored over the

Eastern Region early this morning... But satellite imagery is showing clouds advancing eastward very rapidly early this morning, and rain is

occurring across much of the Ohio Valley, as well as in the central and southern Appalachians... Thickening cloudiness early today will be

followed by occasional rain and drizzle, primarily from mid-morning on across the Susquehanna River Valley in eastern Pennsylvania, and

from midday or early this afternoon (around 1 or 2 p.m.) on farther east (including most places near the Delaware River, as well as the I-95

corridor from southern New England to Virginia)... Because the clearing during the night has allowed for temperatures to drop into the low and

mid-30s across much of rural/suburban eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey, we must not rule out the possibility of rain

starting off as a little sleet or snow in these places... This would be a plausible scenario if the precipitation were to start a little earlier than

expected, but it would also make a pretty quick transition to plain rain, probably in under 60 minutes... Temperatures will wind up in the 40s

today, for the most part... The fact that temperatures dropped into the upper-20s and 30s overnight, combined with the timing of the arrival of

clouds should see to that... The rainfall totals expected for today and tonight should be relatively close to 0.25" -- assuming that the

steadiest and heaviest precipitation will manage to cut up through an area west of the Appalachians (western portions of Pennsylvania and

upstate New York)... We can even envision how there may be a tenth of an inch or less in several places along the immediate coastline...

With rain expected to taper to drizzle and end from west to east later tonight or tomorrow morning, our lingering cloudiness tomorrow should

break for some midday and afternoon sunshine... High temperatures will be in the mid-40s in the coolest spots and around 50 in the larger

cities...

Saturday should be the nicest day of the three (yes, "three") this upcoming President's Day holiday weekend... A broad area of high

pressure will be in place at the start of the weekend, and most temperatures will probably be no lower than the mid and upper-40s... But the

real challenging time periods in the forecast will be Saturday night, Sunday and probably even the early part of Sunday night... We've been

talking the past couple of days about the potential for a new storm forming and emerging along the Gulf Coast... And, while there's also

evidence that there will be a upper-level trough, and some vigorous energy moving through the northern branch of the jet stream -- whether or

not there is a 'major coastal storm' will ultimately depend upon whether or no there is actual 'phasing' between the northern and southern

branches of the jet stream... Or, we would need a scenario where the low pressure system along the Gulf Coast on Saturday evening would

have to get "reeled in" by the upper-level winds associated with the northern branch disturbance... The global models do still show a storm

along the East Coast, but just how far NORTH its precipitation shield will extend is still a subject of much debate... The scenario that the 00z

G.F.S. is portraying (as well as at least three of its prior model runs) has a low pressure moving through the mid-Atlantic region on Sunday,

and its precipitation extends as far north as southern New England... Meanwhile, even though the 00z run of the European is trending a little

farther north than before, it is keeping most of its rain, snow or a combination of both mostly SOUTH of the Mason-Dixon Line... So, we have

almost 72 hours to monitor this -- and it looks like we still need to allow for some rain and snow here on Sunday... Depending upon which

model you believe, this weekend's storm could start as snow, that would change to rain and then back to snow again in areas north and west

of the I-95 corridor -- but it would consist mostly of rain, which would only change to snow late Sunday or Sunday night along the coast... The

"other option" is that there may be NOTHING north of Maryland/Delaware/extreme South Jersey... We'll be working on 'ironing out the

details' over the next couple of days...

Have a good day!!!