Bill Evans' Weather Chat

Arctic Cold is Here!! Brisk & Cold For the Next Three Days!

WABC — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 04:06:22 -0500

Sunny, Dry, and Quiet Through the Weekend!

Today: Sunny, Brisk, and Colder High:33 “Feels Like” 20 Degrees Today

Tonight: Patchy Clouds & Cold Low:27 City 17 Suburbs

Tomorrow: Sunshine & Chilly High: 36

Good Morning,

There were plenty of clouds to ring in the New Year yesterday, but the Tri-State Area

remained relatively dry... A few flurries and sprinkles showed up early yesterday afternoon at

Newark's Liberty Airport and also at LaGuardia Airport... However, there was only a trace amount

of precipitation recorded at a handful of those stations which report the weather each and every

hour... Temperatures did, as expected, wind up within a couple of degrees of 40 early yesterday

afternoon... However, it is noticeably colder out there early this morning behind our latest front...

Most of yesterday's widespread precipitation occurred both to the north and south of the Tri-State

Area, with a conveyor belt of moisture spreading light rain out across the Tennessee Valley, the

Carolinas and in southern Virginia... Conversely, parts of upstate New York and northern New

England encountered snow showers as arctic air made its presence felt, with slowly falling

afternoon temperatures that wound up in the lower 20s and even the teens in some of the coldest

spots... On this morning's satellite imagery, a band of high and mid level clouds stretch from east

to west, from the Atlantic Ocean back into the Ohio Valley... North of this line, where the sky has

been clear most of the night and the wind very light, the temperature across the Hudson Valley has

dropped into the lower teens... But where the clouds have been more persistent, while its still very

chilly, the temperature has been no lower than the mid 20s... So, for those who are heading back to

work and school today, it'll be important to have the heavy coat, hat, scarf, gloves and everything

in your 'winter wardrobe' to cope with the colder air... Even though most of the day should turn out

sunny, most temperatures this afternoon should be no higher than the lower or middle 30s...

To say that the upcoming pattern for the next 5-7 days will be rather quiet is an understatement...

A high pressure system building into the Eastern Region will supply the area with dry and cold air,

and there will be a modest uptick in temperatures for both tomorrow and Friday... Back on

Monday, there was some sentiment that as a 'clipper' type wave moved across the Great Lakes

and into the Northeast... This, in turn, would drag another cold front into mid Atlantic states and

unleash a fresh batch of colder air... However, the global models during the past 36 hours have all

been showing that the 'main thrust' of this cold shot will be streaking eastward across Quebec,

upstate New York and northern New England... Therefore, daytime temperatures on Friday will be

almost the same as tomorrow's, and then temperatures over the weekend will be within a couple of

degrees of 40... There are no major storms in sight for the next several days, and the longer range

guidance is suggesting that temperatures could reach the mid or upper 40s by the middle of next

week...

Have a good day!!

A Seasonal Start to 2013, Then it Gets REALLY Cold!

WABC — Tue, 01 Jan 2013 04:52:36 -0500

The Arctic Assault Arrives Tonight and Lasts the Next Three Days!

Good Morning and Happy New Year!

We have a quiet start to new year. There will be a few sprinkles and flurries around, but all-in-all it

will be fairly quiet with a little hit-or-miss activity around the region. The set up is a storm to the

south will spread some light moisture northward that will be captured in the mid-level jet, then on

top of that getting drawn in from the arctic boundary will further add to some lift over the area.

Again, not much to work with so we shouldn't play up precipitation very much today.

Tonight we get into drier air with some subsidence from the confluent flow and resultant high

pressure. So skies will clear and temperatures will drop.

Tomorrow will be a colder day, but still fairly nice with plenty of sunshine as high pressure

maintains its presence. Thursday will be quiet still with sunshine to start, then some more

afternoon clouds starting to fill in during the afternoon. These clouds will be moving in ahead of a

storm system diving southward out of Canada. Actually the feature is a combination of two shortwave

troughs combining over southern Ontario then moving through New England. The first of

these pieces is moving eastward from southern Alberta this morning and the second piece is

diving southward out of the NW Territories. As this system moves through New England there will

be a few snow showers well to our north, but just a few clouds around here.

Previous runs of this system had the front pushing southward and causing a cold shot for Friday.

Now it looks like another SW trough will hold the front up to the north keeping us in the "milder"

air. So we'll be making a bump up to Friday's temps and without a need for recovery from arctic air

on Saturday we'll be taking those temps up as well with a milder start Friday night/Saturday

morning.

Another system will move into the area on Sunday with more clouds, but both the GFS and EURO

are lacking moisture, so there may be a flurry, but it will as likely be dry. At the very least we will

increase the clouds, but leave it dry.

Have a Great Day and Happy New Year!

Sunny & Seasonal for the Last Day of 2012! But Arctic Cold for the Start of 2013!

WABC — Mon, 31 Dec 2012 05:52:25 -0500

Real Feel Temperatures Only in the Teens Wedneday and Thursday!!

Good Morning,

We've got some dry and seasonably cold weather this morning... and a whole lot less wind,

because the low pressure system responsible for Saturday's snow continues to drift out into the

North Atlantic... A weak ridge of high pressure will temporarily be in control of the weather pattern,

although the satellite imagery early today is showing areas of low clouds in eastern Pennsylvania

and across parts of upstate New York... Because there won't be very much wind today, it'll be

difficult for any sufficient mixing to occur, and for clouds to get 'stirred out' of those places that

will be overcast at daybreak... But, there will be a few glimpses of sun for a while today, especially

along the immediate coastline -- and that sun will tend to fade behind increasing clouds from

midday on... Most temperatures will be in the upper 30s this afternoon, but it won't "feel as harsh"

as it did yesterday, because of the lack of strong wind gusts...

Tonight, for New Year's Eve festivities, we'll be watching for some spotty, light precipitation across

the Northeast and in the mid Atlantic states... Some slightly warmer air moving in aloft on a

southwesterly wind could bring with it a few flurries late tonight, and there may even be a steadier

snow shower in a few areas (especially in those places that are located away from the coast, and

north/west of I-95)...

Tomorrow, the leading edge of some colder air may bring with it a few flurries and sprinkles...

Southwest winds should keep the temperature from falling below the freezing mark tonight, and

that will provide the mercury with a sort of 'springboard' for tomorrow -- with many places winding

up in either the upper 30s or the lower 40s in the afternoon... But, after that, there will be partial

clearing and some noticeably colder air should be arriving on New Year's Night... Expect

temperatures to plunge into the 20s (even the teens in the typically colder spots) late Tuesday

night, and then Wednesday and Thursday will be dry, but cold... Many temperatures during

midweek will be in the low or mid 30s, even despite some sunshine... The core of the coldest air in

eastern North America, or the "polar vortex" appears as if it will be across Quebec and in northern

New England... Therefore, we don't think that the coastal cities will experience a "brutal" cold

snap, but this should still provide us with the season's coldest air thus far... And, while we're not

anticipating any major storms / precipitation events this week, the initial push of arctic air during

the Wednesday/Thursday time frame will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cold air on Friday...

There'll be a 'clipper-type' disturbance located in the Great Lakes Thursday, which will probably be

dragging a cold front across the Northeast and mid Atlantic states on Thursday night... And, that

will probably make Friday the coldest day of the upcoming week -- even if temperatures are just

two or three degrees lower than Wednesday or Thursday... Have a good day!!!

Back to Brisk, Brisk, and Chilly Today!!!

WABC — Wed, 19 Dec 2012 05:04:32 -0500

It will be even colder for the wekend coming up!

Today: Sunshine with a Chilly Wind High: 49

Tonight: Clear and Brisk Low: 36 in the City 26 in the Suburbs Wind Chills will make it feel colder!

Tomorrow: Sunshine to Start, then Clouds Increase High: 46

Good Morning,

This morning's weather map is showing yesterday's storm that produced early morning rain

in the Tri-State Area located near the coast of Maine... And, there is also a weaker disturbance (its

lowest central pressure is about 1007 millibars, not the 995 millibars where the coastal storm is)

located in the Ohio Valley... We expect that second area of disturbed weather located well to the

west (and its showers of rain and snow) to dive southeastward this morning before it 'washes out'

over the central and southern Appalachians by early this afternoon... We'll have dry weather, and

temperatures mostly in the 40s -- expect a mixture of sun and clouds, too... Under a clear sky this

evening, temperatures should fall into the upper 30s in some outlying areas fairly quickly, but

most of the larger cities will wind up in the mid and upper 30s after midnight...

Looking ahead to tomorrow, there should at least be some glimpses of sunshine early as a ridge

of high pressure begins to retreat from the East Coast, drifting out into the western Atlantic...

Then, we will be turning the focus of our attention to the west once again, with high and mid level

clouds associated with a wave of low pressure in the Plains states starting to increase and

gradually thicken... As a result, most temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be in the mid 40s, and

there should be very little, if any change in temperatures tomorrow night as the clouds eventually

usher in rain... The body of low pressure, which we've been talking about since the week began, is

still expected to produce a tremendous amount of snow in Minnesota and Wisconsin during the

next 36 hours, and it will even cause rain in Chicago tomorrow to change over to snow late in the

day -- followed by some accumulation tomorrow night and early Friday...

Conversely, with a warm front pressing northeastward through the eastern third of the nation, there

will be a surge of somewhat milder air moving into the region -- and it wouldn't be surprising at all if the temperature

early on Friday morning climbed into the 50s for at least a while in southeastern New England,

parts of New York and especially in the mid Atlantic states... However, that will also be a time when

a decent slug of rain will be pushing northward, and the quantitative totals are still expected to be

in the 0.75" to 1.50" range between 8 p.m. tomorrow and midday on Friday... As the primary wave

of low pressure tracks northeastward into Canada on Friday, there will be a secondary wave of low

pressure forming early along the mid Atlantic coast, near the junction of the aforementioned warm

front and a cold front that will be wrapping around the feature located in the Great Lakes... This so-called

"triple-point" wave is what we expect to enhance rainfall along the coastal plain late

Thursday night and early on Friday before it, too starts its trek to the north and into Canada on

Friday night... So, after a thorough soaking tomorrow night and early on Friday, drier air should

eventually begin to filter into the area, spreading out across the area during the afternoon and

bringing the sun out for at least a short while.

While the secondary feature is expected to bring a decent soaking to areas east of the Appalachians

tomorrow night and early Friday, we must also be mindful of the fact that the barometric pressure field near

it is going to prevent the wind from becoming very strong, or for strong gusts in excess of 35 or 40 miles

per hour, until that clears the area -- and this won't happen until late on Friday afternoon or early Friday

night... So, our forecasts today will include a 'delay' in the mention of the onset of stronger winds, but they

certainly will be ushering in noticeably colder air for Friday night and the upcoming weekend...

Even though lake effect snow squalls are expected to only blast western and central portions of New York

State and Pennsylvania from late on Friday into Saturday, it is possible that a few snow flurries could get

pushed all the way to the coastal plain -- especially on Saturday... Weekend temperatures will be no higher

than the lower 40s on Saturday, and most places will be hard pressed to get out of the 30s on Sunday... A

dry and chilly pattern is expected for the beginning of next week, while a major snow storm is expected to

form in the southern Rockies late this weekend before reaching the central Plains during the upcoming

Christmas holiday.

Have a good day!!!

Rain, Drizzle, and Fog To Start the Week, Colder by the Time Solstice Arrives

WABC — Mon, 17 Dec 2012 05:10:12 -0500

Keep the Rain Gear Handy Through Tuesday Morning!

Good Morning,

As the first in a series of low pressure systems to impact the weather in the Eastern Region

this week reaches the coastal plain today, there will be a tendency for spotty rain to taper to some

drizzle... Fog is going to be a problem for a while, and it could reduce the visibility to less than a

mile in some places, mainly this morning... Because there will be plenty of clouds all day long, and

it will be rather damp (especially early, when the fog will be the most widespread), the temperature

will have a difficult time getting out of the 40s in most places... There may be some locations near

and to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line (for example, in the Greater Philadelphia Area and in

South Jersey) that reach the lower or middle 50s, but the farther north you go, the chances are

much greater that the light, northeasterly winds near the surface will prevent any milder air from

pushing into the Tri-State Area or into southern New England... And, as we had pointed out late

last week, there is some 'wintry weather' being encountered early today across northern and

central New England, as well as in portions of upstate New York... So, the wedge of chilly air is

going to take quite a while to get wiped out of these areas today, with various forms of

precipitation this morning near Boston and in southern New Hampshire gradually changing over

to plain rain...

Tonight, as another wave of low pressure begins to make its move into the mid Atlantic states, we

are expecting a fairly persistent, steady rain to spread out across much of the Eastern Region

again... And, much like early today, it should manage to taper off tomorrow morning... However,

unlike today's cloudy scenario, the tendency for tomorrow's wave of low pressure to intensify as it

heads out into the Atlantic will cause the winds to increase as they shift around to the west (and,

in some cases, the northwest)... In addition to causing some drier air to get pulled into the area,

which will cause enough mixing to get the sun to come out for a while, the winds will probably

average 12-25 mph with some gusts as high as 35 mph tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow

night... Because the air aloft in the wake of this departing storm system tomorrow isn't going to be

all that cold, we stand a very good chance of not only seeing a few hours of sunshine, but also

getting temperatures tomorrow afternoon to peak in the mid 50s, or even the upper 50s if all the

pieces were to fall into place...

Rainfall totals for the first half of today should average less than a tenth of an inch in most places,

then tonight into tomorrow morning, this "next wave" will bring a general 0.50" to 1.00"...

On Wednesday, a bubble of high pressure is expected to bring a temporary period of dry weather, with

some sunshine and a relatively light wind... Most temperatures will either be in the upper 40s or the lower

50s, and roughly 6-10 degrees ABOVE the seasonal averages...

Later this week, it looks as if another storm that will be emerging in the Plains states during midweek is

going to be playing a significant role in the weather across the eastern third of the nation... With some early

sunshine expected to fade behind clouds on Thursday, it should still be rather mild in the afternoon... But,

we expect a low pressure system in the Ohio Valley on Thursday night to strengthen as it tracks to the

north and east on Friday... For most of us, this should mean that Thursday night will bring some rain to the

I-95 corridor -- and, while we can't totally rule out the possibility of some more rain on Friday morning, the

odds do seem to favor now that there will be some drier air getting entrained into this storm system as it

starts to push into the St. Lawrence River Valley in southeastern Canada...

It should be pointed out that there could be enough cold air 'wrapping around' this storm system on

Thursday night to change rain over to snow before it ends across portions of upstate New York (which

would include the Catskills and parts of the Hudson Valley), as well as across much of central and

northeastern Pennsylvania... But, farther to the south and east, in cities like New York, Philadelphia and

Baltimore, the more likely scenario is that it will "dry out" early on Friday before it gets cold enough for any

changeover to occur... But, Friday has the potential to be a fairly WINDY day, with temperatures holding

steady, or slowly falling through the 40s...

Have a good day!!!

Sunny Start to the Weekend with a Rainy End!

WABC — Fri, 14 Dec 2012 05:00:51 -0500

Messy Weather for Next Week!

Today; Sunny & Nice! High: 51 Tonight: Clear & Chilly 39 in the City 29 in the Suburbs Saturday: Sunshine and Beautiful Nicest Day of the Weekend High:45 Sunday: Wet Snow to Start N&W if I-287, Rain & Drizzle in the City and South of I-287 High: 48 Good Morning, The sky is clear early today, and most temperatures are in the low and mid 20s in the typically colder outlying areas and the 30s in most of the bigger cities... There will be a good deal of sunshine today, with most temperatures in the upper 40s or the lower 50s this afternoon... The sky tonight will be clear to partly cloudy, with most temperatures in the 30s... The only exceptions will be some rural, interior areas -- these places will wind up in the 20s again... High pressure is starting to make its slow move to the south, which will allow for the surface winds to become more southwesterly and/or westerly during the next 36 hours... So, most temperatures will be no lower than the mid or upper 40s tomorrow, even if the day ends on a cloudier note... The cloud cover is probably going to be the key in determining how much of a boost temperatures will get... Whatever cloud cover there is late tomorrow (probably not completely overcast), these will tend to lower and thicken tomorrow night... The next feature that we'll be keeping an eye on is a relatively weak, flat-looking wave of low pressure that will be emerging in the northern Tier of states tonight... As this low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes tomorrow night, there is going to be a batch of relatively light precipitation breaking out across the northern and central Appalachians... This will eventually creep towards the coastal plain during the wee hours of Sunday morning, with temperatures mainly in the 30s at the onset of precipitation... Of course, with air temperatures in this "marginal category", which are low enough to support a period of snow and/or ice, we must cover for the possibility that there may be some late tomorrow night and early Sunday... At this juncture, it appears that the higher elevations of northwestern New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York are the most likely places which can get that 'wintry mix' for a few hours, before an eventual changeover to rain takes place... For what its worth, the G.F.S. and European are both only printing out a couple of hundredths of an inch of liquid prior to noon on Sunday, with the domestic models bringing the precipitation all the way to the coast by 5 a.m. -- the European is about 2-4 hours 'slower'... The balance of Sunday will be rather cloudy and damp with occasional rain, and most afternoon temperatures will be no higher than the 40s... The confidence level after Sunday night decreases somewhat, only because a series of wave of low pressure systems will be moving across the Eastern Region next week... In a more active weather pattern, the speed at which these will be moving and their intensity will ultimately determine when and where it will rain Monday and Tuesday, as well as how mild it can get... At this point, the odds do seem to favor that temperatures on Monday will be soaring well into the 50s, and there will be a few periods of rain... Only areas which are located across upstate New York and in New England will be prone to getting any snow or ice on Monday... While an initial disturbance should start to move off the coast of New England on Tuesday morning, we still cannot rule out the possibility of some rain, especially early... Then, in this 'busy' scenario next week, the focus of our attention will be turning to our south... Later on Tuesday and Tuesday night, the models show the eventual development of a new wave in the Carolinas, and it should start to track to the north and east on Tuesday night and Wednesday... This midweek feature is the 'much talked-about coastal storm' that has been rumored for the past several days... But, the latest run of the G.F.S. (as of 0z Friday) is portraying this wave as staying mostly off shore... If that were to verify, there probably won't be much precipitation of any kind occurring here on Tuesday or Wednesday... However, a future track closer to the coast would mean a more widespread precipitation event, including periods rain along the coast, some snow and ice farther inland, and winds that could gust as high as 35 or 40 mph at times... We will continue to monitor the situation closely over the weekend, but there is no clear consensus yet on what exactly to expect between Tuesday and Thursday of next week... (right now, the G.F.S. keeps Wednesday dry here, but a new disturbance rolling in from the Great Lakes later on Thursday could bring a new round of precipitation. Have a good weekend!!!

Sunny, Seasonably Chilly, Tranquil Weather Gets Us Into Saturday Around NYC!

WABC — Wed, 12 Dec 2012 05:49:41 -0500

Grab the Coats AND the Sunglasses!

Good Morning,

The infrared satellite loop early this morning is showing a conveyor belt of clouds pushing

northward along the Eastern Seaboard... As we mentioned yesterday and the previous day, there

is a low pressure system early this morning which is bringing some rain to the Southeast... This

wave is expected to linger along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas today and tonight before

heading out to sea tomorrow...

And, while we aren't concerned that there will be any precipitation north of the Mason-Dixon Line

today or tonight, these clouds should manage to dim the sun at times around here today... That

plume of moisture in the mid and upper levels will eventually be pushing off shore early tonight,

and the sky should become mostly clear late tonight... As for temperatures, our thinking still hasn't

changed, and most will be in the 40s this afternoon... Obviously, since most typical daytime

temperatures at this time of year are in the lower or middle 40s, this is something climatology

would tell us "we should expect" during mid December... The rest of the forecast remains

unchanged... Most forms of the numerical guidance are coming in "a little cooler" than what we

had been anticipating on both Friday and Saturday, so these temperatures have been trimmed just

a bit... Under normal circumstances, this probably wouldn't even get noticed, but the numbers

which had been in the lower 50s are now in the mid/upper 40s...

The next wave of low pressure that has the potential to impact our weather over the weekend is

going to be forming tomorrow night and Friday in the middle of the country... As the leading edge

of somewhat milder air presses eastward on Saturday night and early Sunday morning, there will

be a warm front advancing into the Northeast... Even though the low pressure system will be

tracking across the Great Lakes (and well to your northwest), there should be a few periods of

mostly light rain around here after midnight on Saturday night that will last into Sunday...

There is a minor concern that this precipitation may start off as a little sleet or wet snow across

portions of upstate New York, northwestern New Jersey and in northeastern Pennsylvania late on

Saturday night... However, as the temperature climbs out of the 30s and into the 40s in these

places on Sunday, it should take whatever 'wintry mix' there is and change it over to plain rain...

Meanwhile, the longer range is still showing signs of a very intriguing weather system that would

have a more widespread impact on the East Coast in about a week -- there are still some signals

from the various global models that a coastal storm may be paying us a visit during the middle of

next week... Have a good day!!

Canadian & Arctic Air Arrives in NYC Today!

WABC — Tue, 11 Dec 2012 05:12:03 -0500

More December-Like Weather On The Way!

Today: Morning Showers, then Sunshine , Windy & Chilly High: 50 NW Wind 12-25mph makes it feel like 40 degrees

Tonight: Partly Cloudy and Colder Low: 34 City 24 in Suburbs

Tomorrow: Sunny & Chilly High: 45

Good Morning,

*The official high of 59 in CPK occurred shortly before 8 p.m. yesterday.

Widespread low clouds and fog were limiting factors on the temperature yesterday... And,

even though it didn't rain very much, there is a cold front early this morning that is in the process

of pushing out into the Atlantic Ocean... The front has caused the wind to shift to the northwest,

and there were still a few widely separated showers occurring behind it as of this writing...

Therefore, we're going to have to allow for a shower in a few places early today (probably before 7

or 8 o'clock)... Temperatures have been knocked back into the 40s behind the front, and we're not

expecting too much of a recovery later today, even though there will be some intervals of

sunshine... The temperature will be within a couple of degrees of 50... With some clearing expected

tonight, it'll be colder than recent nights, with most temperatures winding up in the 30s in the big

cities, but the 20s in the normally colder spots...

High pressure should be the dominant feature on the weather map tomorrow and Thursday... Even

though it should be in the mid and upper 40s across much of the area both days, this is obviously

closer to typical levels for this time of year -- and, we certainly won't be lacking for sunshine... We

did mention yesterday that there's going to be a low pressure system located near the Carolina

Coast tonight, tomorrow and early on Thursday... But, with the presence of the strong ridge of

high pressure to the north, all of the rain associated with it will be suppressed well to the south...

There could be some high, thin clouds which may dim the sun at times tomorrow across the mid

Atlantic states, but that is about the only thing that will tarnish an otherwise quiet weather

pattern... There are no changes in the thinking about what is in store for Friday and the weekend...

While the ridge of high pressure should remain in control on Friday, bringing a good deal of

sunshine, any sunshine on Saturday will probably start to fade behind increasing clouds...

A wave of low pressure emerging in the middle of the country this weekend is going to be pushing a

Warm front into the Eastern Region Saturday night and Sunday... And, while the track of this wave

should push it well to the north and west of the coastal plain Sunday, we may be dealing with a bit

of rain, or at least a couple of spotty showers around here on both Saturday night and Sunday...

If you're curious about what could happen beyond the seven-day forecast period, the G.F.S. is

indicating that a storm system will form over the Southeast next Tuesday... And, if the upper-level

pattern features a 'blocking high' over the North Atlantic, and the trough axis located in the

Southeast becomes negatively-tilted, then there could be a coastal storm to be reckoned with in

the East at some point during the 19th and 20th of this month (next Wednesday/Thursday)...

Have a good day!!!

A Mild & Rainy Start to the NYC Week! Colder Air and Reality Return Tomorrow!

WABC — Mon, 10 Dec 2012 05:12:01 -0500

Quiet, Tanquil Weather Moves in Tuesday and Lasts the Rest of the Week!

Today: Morning Fog and Drizzle, Showers and Warmer High: 62

Tonight: Showers and Rain Tonight, Low 43 Colder Toward Dawn with Passage of a Cold Front

Tomorrow: Sunshine, Brisk, & Chilly High: 48

Good Morning,

The latest warm front to push up the Eastern Seaboard is still located near the Tri-State Area

early this morning... As of 3 a.m. -- the surface winds at many of the hourly reporting stations was

still out of the east and northeast... This will be changing as we go through the course of this

morning, and temperatures that are starting off mostly in the 40s will probably be within a couple

of degrees of 50 during the morning rush... But, in addition to a touch of rain and some drizzle

early today, there will also be some patchy dense fog -- the visibility at J.F.K. Airport, for example,

was as low as a quarter of a mile very early this morning... So, after a mild and murky start, there

will be plenty of leftover clouds, but temperatures should manage to climb into the lower and

middle 60s this afternoon, except near some of the south-facing shores... Parts of coastal

Connecticut, the South Shore of Long Island and some of the barrier islands at the Jersey Shore

will fail to get out of the 50s, but even these locations will have temperatures averaging more than

ten degrees above normal for this time of year...

Obviously, we will be in a so-called "warm sector" for several hours today as this morning's warm

front pushes into southern and central New England, and then the focus of our attention later this

afternoon and this evening will be on a cold front that will be approaching the I-95 corridor from

the west... This front should be the culprit that will lead to a couple of hours of rain later this

afternoon and this evening, which may very well impact the afternoon and evening commute...

Then, the rain will taper off some time around midnight, and some drier and chillier air will start to

filter into the Tri-State Area early tomorrow morning... Most temperatures at daybreak tomorrow

will be no lower than the 40s, except in some places located well to the north and west of the big

cities -- but there won't be very much recovery occurring later tomorrow... Most high temperatures

will be in the mid and upper 40s tomorrow, or around fifteen degrees LOWER than what we're

expecting today...

While the global models are showing a wave of low pressure emerging during midweek in the

Southeast, which will "hug the Carolina Coast" for about a day or two before it heads out to sea,

the Northeast and most of the mid Atlantic states will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure

that will be spreading eastward across the northern latitudes... Temperatures on Wednesday and

Thursday, for the most part, should be no higher than the 40s -- even though there will be a good

deal of sunshine both days... The dry weather should persist through the start of the upcoming

weekend...

Have a good day!!!

Rainy Weekend is on the Way to the NYC Area!

WABC — Fri, 07 Dec 2012 05:28:13 -0500

It could start as freezing rain in the N&W suburbs!

Today: Cloudy with Rain & Drizzle High:45

Tonight: Patchy Fog, Rain and Drizzle Low: 43

Tomorrow: Morning Fog, Showers and Mild High: 56

Sunday: Cloudy & Cool with A Few Showers High: 50

Monday: Clouds & Sun, A Few Showers and Warm High: 60

Good Morning,

As some clouds are spreading out across the Eastern Region early this morning, these

should be lowering and thickening as the morning hours unfold across the Tri-State Area...

Temperatures as of this writing were in the mid and upper 20s in some of the typically colder

suburbs, but in the 30s in most of the larger cities and towns... So, while a high pressure system

which is retreating from the Northeast and mid Atlantic coasts has provided us with some very

chilly and dry air, the clouds that are streaking northward and eastward are associated with a

warm front -- and this front should manage to reach the Tri-State Area late this afternoon or early

tonight...

Overrunning precipitation is something that we talked extensively about yesterday, and its arrival

time has been "pushed up" within the past 12-18 hours... It now appears that some rain will be

getting underway in the City between the hours of 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. (with the EURO printing out

0.08" of rain and the G.F.S. 0.10" in Central Park before 1 o'clock this afternoon)... Therefore, we'll

need to watch both the regional radar and hourly temperatures very closely, because it is likely

that the initial pulse of precipitation in some of the higher elevations (like in the mountains of

northwestern New Jersey, the Poconos and the Catskills) will be arriving sometime between 8 and

10 a.m. -- and the rain could freeze on some untreated surfaces at the very start, or this rain may

mix with sleet pellets before the boundary layer becomes saturated... Dewpoint temperatures on

Mount Pocono and in Sussex, N.J. early today are within a couple of degrees of 20, and it would

take a little while for the atmosphere to become saturated when precipitation gets underway...

Also, while the City and most coastal communities should see plain rain as the temperature climbs

into the mid 40s this afternoon, it is more likely to struggle mightily to reach 40 in some of these

higher elevations -- which, in fact, may take until some time tonight to happen... If there are any

advisories for freezing rain, or a "Winter Weather Advisory" gets posted for parts of the Tri-State

Area (especially for those places that are located north and west of I-287), then we'll be passing

these along as soon as they are issued...

Rain should continue, on and off, throughout the upcoming night and into tomorrow morning

before tapering to a couple of showers... During the next 24 hours, that quantitative rainfall should

average 0.10" to 0.25" across the entire area... We should emphasize that temperatures tonight will

manage to hold nearly steady for a while in the upper 30s and lower 40s before possibly starting to

rise after midnight -- we could be looking at a scenario where the maximum temperature today

occurs shortly before midnight, and it may be greater than 44 or 45 at that point... Fog is also

something we need to address, too...

Tomorrow's temperatures are most likely going to climb into the mid and upper 50s as the warm front

presses through New England on its way into eastern Canada... Therefore, we are going to be in a so-called

"warm sector" tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, when even though it should remain fairly

cloudy, there won't be very much precipitation occurring around here...

Sunday, we have a cold front on our weather maps that is going to be buried in the mid Atlantic states, not

too far from the Virginia - North Carolina border... So, with the easterly flow kicking in behind the frontal

passage Saturday night and another batch of moisture overrunning this old boundary, we appear to be 'in

line' for a few periods of rain Sunday and Sunday night... Most temperatures will be in the upper 40s to

around 50 on Sunday, and the rain totals for both Sunday and Sunday night should be in the 0.25" to 0.75"

range...

As we mentioned during the past couple of days, another surge of warm air along the East Coast on

Monday is anticipated -- which should send many temperatures soaring into the upper 50s and lower 60s

in the afternoon... Some rain is possible, and there may even be a thunderstorm in some places... The next

cold front is due to arrive late on Monday night or early Tuesday, which should send the temperature

plunging into the upper 30s or lower 40s late on Monday night -- followed by very little recovery on

Tuesday... We are more and more confident now that temperatures around here on Tuesday will fail to get

out of the 40s, and we also will be watching for a possible wave of low pressure developing over the

Carolinas, which the European global model has been showing consistently on some of its recent runs...

The bulk of its precipitation may slide by to the south, but this is a feature that bears watching closely...

Chilly and dry weather is expected during the middle portion of next week...

Have a good weekend!! t