BizMediaScience

Counting Wristwatches at the SNCR Conference

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 08:00:00 -0700

I spent some time last week at the SNCR Symposium and Awards Gala at Harvard U in Cambridge, MA. One thing that always happens at these meetings is that the Researchers (I'm one) get to prognosticate about what's coming down the pike re social media, new communications, the 'net and such.

I think I was the only one with an actual cellphone, no camera, no internet, no media, no music, no twittering on the go.

Thankfully, my Ludditehood is still intact.

Questions investigated in a roundtable format included the future of print, who's getting their news online, who's getting their news mobline (online mobile), what's the latest technology that will emerge and what will fade, ...

Very interesting stuff.

I sat, watched and listened to my extremely intelligent and knowledgeable brethren and sistren and counted the number of net-savvy, on the edge, knowing the future people were still wearing wristwatches. In fact, analog wristwatches. Not digital, and maybe quartz driven, but with analog faces.

I was curious because cognitive theory has demonstrated that there's an asymptotic ceiling to how much information the human mind can respond to from any interface. Until we evolve further (and in the necessary direction) that asymptote is getting exponentially nearer (mathematicians grimace when I write or say things like that).

The wristwatch has survived for a very long time because of four simple design rules:

1) It is simple to use,
2) The information it presents is immediately actionable,
3) It is a wearable interface that doesn't interfere with other routine daily functions and
4) It economically puts power into a large populations' hands (or on their wrists, whatever).

I've been telling people for a long time that for all the latest technologies provide, not a lot of them will last. Remember when everyone had to have a digital watch? Do you know that record players are now considered the must-haves because the sound quality is (supposedly) so much better? Technology is wonderful and only when its benefits outweigh its detriments. Personal technologies are wonderful and won't last unless they (as I said at a previous SNCR symposium and reference again in rule #4 above) put more power into people's hands.

Mobile devices don't quite live up to that promise. Yet. I know there are devices close to Dick Tracy's watchphone. I understand that they're not simple to use. Shucks. Lost on rule #1 above and require more power to use than they economically provide on a psycho-identity level (see Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History for more on this) so rule #4 is gone, too.

Bummer, dude.

I'm told that wristwatches are greatly on the decline with the young. They prefer to learn the time from their mobile devices. This means one of their hands is always going to be busy mobiling. One hand to hold the device, maybe another to push some button.

This is why digital watches faded. You needed two hands. If not to activate the display, then to light it for easy reading. Not easy, economical power. Anybody remember the SNL faux-commercial about a digital watch that required three hands to operate? "It's almost like asking a stranger for the time."

I also know that people purchase watches as they age. Perhaps to keep track of how little time they have left.

And I know that analog watches will catch on as we start to travel at light-like speeds. A little known fact from relativity; analog internals are the only timepieces that keep correct local time regardless of relativistic frame.

Maybe as people grow older they want to know the correct time at the Black Hole Bar&Grill?

So I performed a completely unscientific study

A Belated Happy Birthday, SETI

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 08:00:00 -0700

For those of you who might have not been watching, SETI -- the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence -- celebrated its 50th birthday on 19 Sept 09. Fifty years and a month or so ago Giuseppe Cocconi and Philip Morrison published Searching for Interstellar Communication in Nature.

How far have we gone in those fifty plus years?

Excellent question that. When Susan and I sit on our backporch we can hear both the sounds of the forest behind our house and the sounds of industry on the other side of that forest. We say "It's almost 2010," and ask, "Where's my flying car? Where's my vacation on Mars? Why isn't teleportation here yet?"

The answer is pretty simple regardless of your area of expertise. Economic: if teleportation was easily available and inexpensive, automotive, energy, construction and infrastructure industries would go bankrupt overnight. Political: any one country demonstrating that kind of logistic advantage would immediately open itself to attack. Social: people haven't yet demonstrated their ability to behave responsibly to mass communication and you want to give them mass movement?

Similar arguments can be made for all truly futuristic technologies.

People also have a cognitive challenge moving from communicating "earthwise" to communicating "starwise". Sure, your cellphone can immediately contact someone on the other side of the globe but the distances are "zero" as far as the electromagnetic spectrum goes. It takes most people longer to push the number of the person they want to reach than it takes cellular networks to locate the phone they're calling and ring it.

But another planet? Once you get beyond Earth's moon immediate communication ends. It would take over six minutes to get an "immediate" response from someone on Mars using current technologies.

Ah, current technologies. Immediate communication with our nearest stellar neighbor would take over eight years. Don't bother asking what they want for lunch. And if you could send a message, would you remember what you asked when you got your answer?

It took people about eight months to travel across North America back in the 1840s, about 3-4 days in the 1870s and mainly because technology changed. The horse-and-wagon gave way to the train for mass transportation. My grandmother said it took her two months to travel from Italy to America when she came here (1900s) and eight hours to fly back (1960s). Again, mass transportation technologies changed.

Current technologies may indicate that there's intelligences out there. Other technologies will let us communicate to them and get immediate responses.

Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.

Upcoming Conferences:

The 4th Annual SNCR Research Symposium & Awards Gala at Harvard University in Cambridge, MA, 5-6 Nov 09

Come on by and say hello.

Have you read my latest book, Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History? It's a whoppin' good read.

And you can always follow me on Twitter.

Writings Elsewhere for Oct '09

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Well, the big news this month is the same as last months; It's out there and you should read it: Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History. Enjoy.

As for my blogging...

All Business.Com

An Economy of Meaning

Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History

That Think You Do

The Analytics Ecology

Learning to Use New Tools

Enjoy.

Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.

Upcoming Conferences:

The 4th Annual SNCR Research Symposium & Awards Gala at Harvard University in Cambridge, MA, 5-6 Nov 09

Come on by and say hello.

Have you read my latest book, Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History? It's a whoppin' good read.

And you can always follow me on Twitter.

It's So Easy to Keep in Touch that Listening is Lost

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 08:00:00 -0700

<CAVEAT EMPTOR>
The language on the video in this post may offend some people.
</CAVEAT EMPTOR>

I was sent the video (about 7.5m long and below the fold as its language may offend some) from a good friend. First and in truthfulness, I laughed my head off. Second and in even more truthfulness, even while laughing at the situation I was deeply saddened by its significance, its meaning, a McLuhan moment if ever there was one.

The whole situation reminds me of a presentation and blog post (TS Eliot, Ezekiel, Beehives and Mighty Mouse - TS Eliot does Information Mechanics). Beyond that, I offer the video without comment. Although I'd appreciate yours if you're so inclined. I promise to listen.

The Dangers of Microsoft

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 08:47:54 -0700

This weekend was a bad day for technorati and digerati who use sidekickerati on t-mobirati.

It's hypnotic when you read it slowly, that line. Kind of like pig-latin or the electronic generation or maybe haiku for the TXT-enabled.

I don't have the kinds of devices that lose massive amounts of data such as happened to people this past weekend (see Microsoft Red-Faced After Massive Sidekick Data Loss for an example). Today I learned that T-Mobile is giving Sidekick users US$100 for their troubles.

Not bad, huh? US$100 for the loss of "Contacts, calendar entries, photographs, and other personal information..."

I empathize and do not sympathize. The data was lost by a Microsoft subsidiary named Danger.

Wait a second...You trusted your "Contacts, calendar entries, photographs, and other personal information..." to a company named Danger?

Noun: danger deynjur
1. The condition of being susceptible to harm or injury
"you are in no danger"; "there was widespread danger of disease"
2. A venture undertaken without regard to possible loss or injury
"there was a danger he would do the wrong thing"
3. A cause of pain or injury or loss
"he feared the dangers of traveling by air"
4. A dangerous place
"He moved out of danger"

I must be one of those people who doesn't like living my life on the edge.

Then again, I'm a Luddite. People ask me why I don't get some kind of handheld something or other. Maybe it's because I don't want to get into Dangerous situations or places?

Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.

Upcoming Conferences:

The 4th Annual SNCR Research Symposium & Awards Gala at Harvard University in Cambridge, MA, 5-6 Nov 09

Come on by and say hello.

Purchase Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History. It's must reading.

Have you Kartooed?

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 08:00:00 -0700

People involved in search engine blah blah often send me links to search engines they think will catch my interest.

There was a visual search engine that was interesting once and not again. I don't even remember it's name.

Of course the latest is Bing (I think it's "Bing"). Yes, I used it, twice I think. Haven't touched it since.

Part of my challenge with search engines is that none of them return immediately relevant data, data that is easily evaluatable by me so that I can make a decision on my next move. After all, I know what I'm really looking for, the search engines never seem to.

And before you think I don't know how to use search engines, maybe you should read some of the items in the links at the end of this post.

The problem is that ... oh, heck. Do you really want me to get all mathematicky on you? I've written about why search engines fail to respond with human valued information many times in many places.

But, all that has changed!

Writings Elsewhere for Sept '09

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 08:00:00 -0700

Well, the big news this month is that it's out there and you should read it: Reading Virtual Minds Volume I: Science and History. Enjoy.

As for my blogging...

All Business.Com

That Think You Do

Enjoy.

Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.

Upcoming Conferences:

The 4th Annual SNCR Research Symposium & Awards Gala at Harvard University in Cambridge, MA, 5-6 Nov 09

Come on by and say hello.

Anybody Kindling?

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 08:31:52 -0700

As some of you may know, my first trade book in about twenty years, Reading Virtual Minds is coming out this week ("coming out" == "it's entering the distribution channels"). It should be available via Amazon, Barnes&Noble, Borders, Lauriat's in the next few weeks and I'm guessing primarily either online or orderable (I doubt any brick&mortar is going to devote shelfspace to an author who's only written extremely technical, minimal distribution books for the past twenty years).

I was talking with a friend who Kindles more often than he hardcopies and he asked if there would be a Kindleable version available. I said I didn't know and as there wasn't a lot of demand (that I knew of), I doubted there would be.

And he suggested I find out how many of my blog readers would Kindle rather than hardcopy.

So I'm asking. Please leave a comment one way or another so I can get an idea, and thanks.

Upcoming Conferences:

The 4th Annual SNCR Research Symposium & Awards Gala at Harvard University in Cambridge, MA, 5-6 Nov 09

Come on by and say hello.

Addendum to "Minimizing Mistakecule Probabilities"

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 08:00:00 -0700

<ADVANCE NOTICE>
We get into quantum theory briefly (I promise, briefly) after the fold. Just letting you know now in case you'd rather not read further. As before, there's an "And I use this how, Joseph?" link once you get past the fold.
</ADVANCE NOTICE>

I wrote about two rules for minimizing the chances of making mistakes in Minimizing Mistakecule Probabilities. Thanks for the comments and feedback.

One conversation really got me going. It dealt with what one does (in math, in business, in life, ...) when you need to look beyond the immediate move. "Your reasoning is valid for this move. What do I do when I want to minimize my chances of making a mistake in the next move while I'm still making this move?"

Another Whoa!, don't you think?

Great question, that.

The first thing to recognize is that we're getting ourselves involved with the fractal universe(s) question; Is the spatial distribution of information homogeneous once you get to a certain scale.

Okay, let me rephrase that.

Addendum to "I'm the Intersection of Four Statements"

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 08:00:00 -0700

First, I'm flattered and honored at the traffic, comments, twitterings, phone calls, emails and Skype sessions generated by I'm the Intersection of Four Statements. I'd like to clarify a few things based on some of the phone calls, emails and Skype sessions.

First, Modality Engineering has very little to do with how the brain functions and very much to do with the results of its functioning. People who've seen my presentations are familiar with my "There are only so many ways the human mammalian brain can function (barring organic trauma)." statement

This means that when I, Susan and friends gather around a bonfire (you're welcome to join us. There are few things as enjoyable as a fire in the dark, reaching to the stars, especially on our mountaintop in the quiet of winter, and that's exactly what this is about) each of our brains is processing much the same sensory information (heat, light, ...).

However, it also means that each of us responds differently to that sensory information. Some might be startled by the explosive cracks of the splintering wood, the sudden bursts of sparks like minimeteors falling to the earth.

Some might feel comfort from the cold, from the night, from the glowing eyes in the trees ringing the field.

For Susan and me, it is an invitation to re-experience our histories and trainings. Consider that someone whose personal mythology includes Creator had a beautiful daughter whose eyes burned brightly and whose hair moved and pulsed on its own, covering her children with a blanket of life. Her skin was always warm and healing because Creator gave her the power of the Sun.
Two young men saw her and asked her name. "My name is Fire," she told them. The two young men were hypnotized by her beauty and each vowed to take her as his wife. Creator told them they must first learn how to respect and honor Fire, then they must pass a test. is probably going to have a very different experience of fire than most people raised in a western cultural paradigm.

These differences between {heat, light, ...} and {comfort, fear, memory, ...} are the differences between objective and subjective experience (there are some links on this difference at the end of this post). Modality Engineering deals with the mathematical understanding and interpretation of those subjective experiences.

Writings Elsewhere for Aug '09

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 08:00:00 -0700

All Business.Com

Website design faux pas and how to avoid them on iMediaConnection

That Think You Do

Enjoy.

Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.

Upcoming Conferences:

The 4th Annual SNCR Research Symposium & Awards Gala at Harvard University in Cambridge, MA, 5-6 Nov 09

Come on by and say hello.

Ancillary Information for iMedia Article 'Website design faux pas and how to avoid them'

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 10:20:10 -0700

<MeaCulpaDept>
28 Aug 09, 9:30amET

I realized this morning I had duplicated video 4 in this list. That's been corrected and video 5 is now in the correct place. Mea culpa, folks.
</MeaCulpaDept>

This blog post provides ancilliary information for my latest iMediaConnection article, Website design faux pas and how to avoid them.

This post includes:

videos of the Masters Class I conducted at the iMedia's June 2009 Brand Summit in Colorado Springs

larger images for your viewing pleasure

a bibliography for your own explorations

Enjoy.

I'm the Intersection of Four Statements

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 08:00:00 -0700

<ADVANCE NOTICE>
My guess is that this post is going to get a bit thick for some readers once they get below the fold. We're going to get into Modality Engineering, something that NextStage's Language Engines do when they do...well...anything. Our "sentiment analysis" tool (Rene's looking for testers) uses equations derived from Modality Engineering to make its determinations. We have a whitepaper, A Primer on Modality Engineering, that we're currently updating and is most likely why this blog post occurred to me. I'll let you know when the update is available.

Anyway, my hope is that you read this post and enjoy the ride. There'll be some pretty pictures if nothing else. And no quizzes at the end.

And for those of you who have no appreciation for nice country rides there's a "What am I suppose to do with this, Joseph?" link after the fold and before we go for the ride.

Which is a pity, you know. We usually stop for ice cream (the good kind made with lots of real cream and natural flavors. The place on the Commons in Barre, MA, is great) along the way.
</ADVANCE NOTICE>

A long time ago (mid to late 1980s) I studied mathematical linguistics (I still do, as much as one can).

Unfortunately, mathematical linguistics no longer exists as a discipline (as far as I know). The late 1980s was when recognizable computing power moved from computer rooms to desktops and cycle time became cheap. Mathematical linguistics quickly became computational linguistics because it was easier (I'm guessing here) for people to use software than to actually understand the underlying principles of what they were doing.

And the above paragraph is an excellent example of why I'm the intersection of four statements.

<ASIDE>
I knew a woman who had a PhD in planetary atmospherics. Her specialty was Saturn, I think. I was impressed until I talked with her. I explained how a few things in ET make use of toroidal equations and can be likened to the psychological equivalent of Bernoulli forces. Her face went blank. I excused myself, perhaps I wasn't using the correct terms.

Oh no, I was using the correct terms. She just never bothered with that. She always made sure she worked with someone who knew how to use the computer so she wouldn't have to learn that stuff.

"You have a PhD in planetary atmospherics and never learned meteorologic physics, atmospheric dynamics, things like that?"

Her excuse was "Well, I never intended to use my degree."

I also knew a woman at Dartmouth who was granted her PhD in biochemistry because she was nine months pregnant and her husband got a job two states away. Her research wasn't that great and couldn't be completed but again, she never intended on using her degree (she told us that) so it was granted to her to make room for someone else.

Someone else equally intentioned, no doubt.

There's a reason for my emPHAsis on intentions in the above. They are more examples of why I'm the intersection of four statements and part of the discussion way at the end of this post.
</ASIDE>

Last week four different individuals made four different statements about me based on their personal experience of me. My mathematical linguistics nerves tingled because I recognized the four statements as mathematically orthogonal and that "I" was the intersection of their four statements.

Mathematically, one could determine if conditions exist such that all four statements can be simultaneously true.

That's a NextStage way of saying one could mathematically determine how well the five of us would get along together should the situation ever arise.

Whoa!, don't you think?

Writings Elsewhere for Jul '09

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 05:44:57 -0700

All Business.Com

The Entrepreneur Mowing My Lawn

That Think You Do

Enjoy.

Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.

Upcoming Conferences:

The 4th Annual SNCR Research Symposium & Awards Gala at Harvard University in Cambridge, MA, 5-6 Nov 09

Come on by and say hello.

One Billion People Are Starving

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 07:35:41 -0700

I heard a report yesterday that one-sixth (1/6) of the world's population, that's one billion people (1,000,000,000), are starving. You can read the story at Cash-Strapped Food Agency Struggles To Feed Poor or listen to it.

(can't wait to see what kinds of ads get thrown up in response to this by the auto-ad generator)

For reasons unknown to me and in ways similar to my experience re The Village: One Minute of Peace and Stonewall's Findings: Darfur, One Minute of Peace, and More...much, much more, my mind started traversing this information. In my case, from an ecological and evolution dynamics perspective.

What does it mean that 1/6th of the world's population, the recognizably bottom of the economy, are starving? To death?