Today is the little girl’s first birthday party (actual birthday is tomorrow). That impacts you in at least two ways: (1) you should be going, “awww,” and (2) I’ll probably be unavailable for a large chunk of the late morning and early afternoon. Time flies and all that…

• It sounds like that report about the Marlins offering Yoenis Cespedes a six-year, $40 million contract during his visit this week was indeed not accurate. According to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, the Marlins did make Cespedes an offer, but it was for “LESS” (he capitalized every letter, but didn’t say how much less) than $40 million. If true, you can come to one of many conclusions: (1) it’s still somewhat early in the negotiation process (at least with respect to the Marlins); (2) bidding on Cespedes isn’t going to get quite as high as some thought; or (3) the Marlins are trying to leverage Cespedes’ desire to play in Miami into an opportunity to get him on the cheap. Based on how things have played out, and on the Marlins’ already-pricey offseason, I lean toward number three.
• Before you get excited thinking, “whoa, the Cubs could easily beat a $40 million over six years offer” (which, yes, they could), remember: multiple sources last week started reporting their belief that, ultimately, Cespedes would sign with Miami. Further, the Cubs and Marlins aren’t the only teams interested in Cespedes. So, while the pendulum may be swinging ever-so-slightly back in the Cubs’ direction, their chances of signing him remain solidly below 50% (let’s call it Marlins 40%, Cubs 30%, another team 30%).
• Since these Bullets are already turning all Lukewarm Stovey, I’ll note that Jon Heyman says Edgar Renteria is looking to play in 2012, and the Cubs, among other teams, might be a good fit. The Cubs have been looking for a middle infield backup for some time, and, right now, only Adrian Cardenas (and, to a lesser extent, non-roster invitees like Edgar Gonzalez and Matt Tolbert) could back-up at shortstop (Darwin Barney can do it, obviously, but he’s slated to start at second base). Renteria, 35, is becoming something of a nightmare at the plate (OPS+ of 67, 93, and 78 the last three years), and his defense has taken a step back. Minor league deal and a chance to show what he’s got left in Spring Training? Sure. Guaranteed deal and a back-up job? Eh.
• Phil Rogers thinks both the Theo Epstein compensation decision and the Ryan Braun PED suspension appeal decision will come down this week.
• New pitching coach Chris Bosio was on the radio yesterday with Bruce Levine, and you can see a recap of his appearance at the CCO. In short, Bosio is heavily focused on the mental side of the game for his pitchers, and he also wants them to work out of the stretch more in practice. Bosio also thinks the Cubs are not done adding pitching depth.

Related posts:

1. Yoenis Cespedes Cleared to Come to the States, Will Soon Meet with Marlins He still doesn't have his work visa yet, though....
2. Well, Grumble: Yoenis Cespedes Says “Hopefully I Can Play for the Marlins” That doesn't mean the Cuban outfielder will ultimately sign with...
3. Yoenis Cespedes is Officially a Free Agent, and May Not Love the Marlins Things are looking up for the Cubs, but, hey, anything...

Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes was in Miami earlier this week to visit with the Marlins – and possibly only the Marlins – who enter the 2012 season with a revamped roster, and a new manager.

That manager, Ozzie Guillen, was asked yesterday about the possibility of adding Cespedes to the team, and his response was … odd. Or, perhaps it was par for the course for Ozzie. From ESPN:

“I heard Mr. Samson say something very interesting yesterday,” Guillen said on the “Waddle and Silvy Show” on ESPN 1000 in Chicago. “He said, ‘We have a great ballclub. And we’re happy with what we have.’”

Call it posturing, but Guillen said the Marlins aren’t the only team in the running, saying he thinks “they’re promoting this kid all over the place. That’s why you have an agent. You as a player, you know where you want to go.”

Cespedes met with the Marlins and toured their new ballpark on Wednesday. He was possibly headed back to the Dominican Republic, where he has obtained residency, Thursday, but it’s not clear if that happened.

His agent, Adam Katz, said Cespedes did not speak to other teams while in Florida. The Cubs, White Sox and Tigers are among the teams that have shown interest.

“We went to the Dominican Republic, myself and 10 guys,” Guillen said. ” We went to see this kid. He’s pretty impressive. They compare this kid with a lot of people. They compare this kid with Bo Jackson. Well Bo Jackson wasn’t a baseball player. This kid is a baseball player. They compare him with (Raul) Mondesi. I think Mondesi was better than him. That’s my own opinion. Mondesi has a better arm, faster, but this kid is pretty good.”

There has been speculation that Cespedes could command a $60 million contract. That commitment makes Guillen nervous.

“There are a lot of question marks out there,” he said. “How’s he going to handle major league pitching? We don’t know. How’s he going to handle major league media? We don’t know. There are a lot of ifs. Whoever signs him is gambling.”

Some reactions:

(1) I actually think Ozzie is a very smart guy, and the suggestion that he could simply be playing the game, and trying to obscure the Marlins’ interest in order to gain a bargaining advantage is, of course, legitimate.

(2) If not, Ozzie could genuinely have concerns about Cespedes, and be trying to convey those concerns to the Marlins’ front office. It wouldn’t be the first time that Ozzie sent some subtle – or not so subtle – messages up the chain via the media.

(3) It’s even possible that Guillen knows the Marlins aren’t going to get Cespedes, and he’s setting fans up not to be disappointed (why else lead with “we don’t need him” and end with “he’s a gamble”?).

That all said, it occurs to me that, because Cespedes can reach an agreement but can’t execute a contract, there is an additional explanation for how things played out this week. It’s possible that all teams had their best and final offers on the table, and Cespedes was pretty sure he wanted to accept the Marlins’ offer. So, he secured a travel visa, came to Miami to check things out and meet with management. There, the two sides finalized their agreement, but, again, because he can’t execute the agreement yet, there was nothing else to be done. So, Cespedes headed back to the DR, and Miami brass had no comment – why would they, if an agreement was reached, but nothing could be announced?

That explanation of events seems as reasonable as any other, though it is admittedly hard to square with Guillen’s comments yesterday (which would have come after the hypothesized agreement was in place). It’s easy to square with sources coming out on Wednesday and Thursday (including a source of mine) saying Cespedes is likely to sign with the Marlins, however.

I guess it would be obsessive if we didn’t concoct dueling, plausible theories.

(There is a report floating around from a Spanish-language publication called Cafe Fuerte – the legitimacy of which I’ve not been able to verify (either the report or the publication, in general) – that Cespedes received a six-year, $40 million offer from the Marlins on his trip to Miami (h/t CubsDen). If true, that certainly seems like an offer the Cubs could beat – and, recall, George Ofman reported on Thursday that Cespedes had already received at least one offer higher than the Marlins’ offer. So, it’s possible that Cespedes has received a 6/$40M offer from the Marlins, and something higher than that from another team. Maybe the Marlins are trying to leverage the attractiveness of their city into getting Cespedes at a cheaper price? Who knows. These are very much just rumors, mind you – thus its placement in a parenthetical at the end of an article, concluded by an ominous elipses….)

Related posts:

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2. Yoenis Cespedes: Resident of the Dominican Republic (UPDATE: And One Report Says Cespedes is Officially a Free Agent Now) The major hurdle to Cespdes' impending free agency has now...
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It may be a rare offseason two-post Saturday, with a Yoenis Obsesspedes update to share. Until then, Bullets…

• Jim Bowden interviewed Red Sox President Larry Lucchino yesterday, and the talk led off with the Theo Epstein compensation issue. Lucchino didn’t say much, offering only that the matter is in Commissioner Bud Selig’s hands now, after the two sides couldn’t come to a resolution. Selig knows the parameters of the two sides’ discussions, and is taking things from there. Lucchino believes it should have been settled by now (by the two sides), but believes it will be resolved soon.
• Ozzie Guillen is, as you’d expect, very excited to have his friend, Carlos Zambrano, on the staff in Miami. Guillen says that Zambrano is “on a mission” this year, and Guillen believes Zambrano will have a great deal of success. Shrug. Fine. I’m glad the Cubs can move on, but I’ve simultaneously resigned myself to the fact that Zambrano probably will have a huge bounce-back year. Not because of a retooled delivery or a rededicated effort, mind you. But because it’s the lot of Cubs fans to suffer.
• Tim Sheridan at Boys of Spring offers another Spring Training update. It looks like Ryan Dempster, James Russell, Chris Volstad, and Travis Wood have all arrived in Mesa. Dempster looks like he’s in pretty good shape, judging by a couple pictures, anyway.
• A fluffy Spring Training preview from FoxSports.
• A fluffy Spring Training preview from CSN.
• A fluffy story on Dillon Maples. It’s actual unfair to include this one in a series with the previous two, because this is a pretty interesting piece. It gives you a little more background on the Cubs’ $2.5 million 14th round pick in 2011, and on what he’s been doing all Winter.
• The February issue of Vine Line is out, and it’s the Minor League Prospectus issue, featuring in-depth looks at prospects like Maples, Tony Zych, Brett Jackson and Javier Baez. There’s also an interview with Scouting Chief Jason McLeod.

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The Chicago Cubs previously made available customizable nine-game ticket packs for the 2012 season, and – either because those are selling well or selling poorly – today the Cubs announced six-game ticket packs, each of which includes a handful of “premium” games. The six-game packs go on sale next Friday, February 17.

From the press release:

The Chicago Cubs today announced the sale of the Cubs 6-Game Pack, featuring tickets to Opening Day against the Washington Nationals, rivalry matchups with the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox, and rare visits to Wrigley Field by the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers. Sales begin Friday, Feb. 17, at 10 a.m. CST on www.cubs.com/6packs.

The Cubs 6-Game Pack provides a choice of 10 different pre-selected, six-game plans, with each option headlined by some of the schedule’s most popular games. The Cubs 6-Game Pack is available in both the Budweiser Bleachers and reserved seating bowl of Wrigley Field. Prices start at just $112 before taxes and fees for a package in the Upper Deck Reserved Outfield section.

In addition to the Cubs 6-Game Pack, fans may still purchase the Cubs 9-Game Pack, featuring tickets to Opening Day, weekend series with the Red Sox, Cardinals and White Sox, plus matchups with the newly-named Miami Marlins, National League East Division Champion Philadelphia Phillies and Central Division rivals Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds.

“The Cubs 6-Game Pack and Cubs 9-Game Pack offer fans the chance to secure many of the best tickets available for the 2012 season before individual game tickets go on sale March 9,” said Wally Hayward, executive vice president, chief marketing officer, Chicago Cubs. “We’re pleased to offer several ticket packages to our fans who are planning their summers at Wrigley Field.”

Tickets must be purchased online through on www.cubs.com/6packs, however questions may be directed to the Chicago Cubs Ticket Office at 773-404-4242.

Each of the packs – there are 10 – includes a specific set of tickets, which is slightly different from the nine-game packs, which allow you to choose each of the nine tickets from a handful of possibilities.

The two package approaches allow you to get tickets before individual tickets go on sale March 9. I’m thinking of picking up a nine-pack, myself.

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The latest from the rumor mill…

• The earlier-referenced Jed Hoyer radio appearance also featured an extended discussion on Alfonso Soriano. Once again, Hoyer’s position was kind of the opposite of the default position. “I think that’s unlikely [that he'll start the season with another team],” Hoyer said on “The Carmen, Jurko & Harry Show” on ESPN 1000. “Our hope certainly – I know Sori’s been working really hard this offseason – our hope is obviously you want him to get on base a little more. The power was there last year, the RBIs were there. Obviously it really comes down to defense and we’re hoping with some better conditioning and some better health, that he can be a little better out there. We don’t want to do anything to hurt our pitchers, but we do believe there’s something left in Sori.”
• Why do I say that’s the opposite of the default position? Because Hoyer is responding from a perspective that assumes Soriano *won’t* be the Cubs’ left fielder on Opening Day, and is saying, “yeah, he probably will be.” I’m used to hearing GMs say things like “Soriano is our left fielder. He’s going to be great.” The way Hoyer responded, he’s clearly acknowledging our shared reality – that everyone can see Soriano struggles in left field, and his production at the plate is rapidly reaching a point where a starting job can no longer be justified, whatever his contract. It’s nice to “hope,” but it’s better to plan. I suspect Hoyer, together with Theo Epstein and Dale Sveum, has a plan for Soriano if the Cubs can’t move him (and you can be assured that the Cubs wouldn’t hate seeing a few AL DHs go down with injuries in Spring Training). Whether that’s releasing Soriano, or involving him in a platoon, I can’t say for sure. But I have a very hard time seeing the Cubs going with Soriano as their every day left fielder for all of 2012.
• Hoyer also spoke about the future of Matt Garza: It was a long [arbitration] process, but we talked to Matt a number of times since and we’re happy we didn’t have to go into a hearing room with him,” Hoyer said. “He’s a great pitcher and a guy we’re going to talk to him about being part of our future, for sure. We need more guys like Matt, not less, and if we can work something out we’ll certainly have those discussions.” More of the same. The Cubs’ position on Garza is pretty clear a this point: if a trade offer comes along that substantially improves the Cubs’ chances in 2013 and beyond, they’ll take it. If not, they’ll continue to discuss the possibility of an extension with Garza – but the former is preferred over the latter. (For what it’s worth, I’ve been told that one issue in extension talks is Garza’s desire for a no-trade clause, something the new crew doesn’t like to offer.)
• George Ofman hears that at least one team has offered Yoenis Cespedes more money than the Marlins have offered/are going to offer. He guesses it could be the Cubs or White Sox (which seems fair, given their levels of involvement). So if Cespedes really wants to be a Marlin, as he said, he may have to leave some money on the table to do it. (Free advice, Yoenis, regardless of the team: you’re giving up all of your prime years in this deal, and it may be the only one you get. Go for the money if one team is offering far more than the others.)
• That report is interesting when viewed in light of how things played out this week: Cespedes comes to the States, able to negotiating a contract but not sign one. Marlins’ brass openly says they want (but don’t need) Cespedes, and President David Samson says the visit might end with an offer. Cespedes visits with the Marlins and sees their stadium. No one knows if he met with other teams while in Miami. Then, he leaves Miami, and Samson is unwilling to comment on the meeting, saying only “we’re going to let the process play out.” That seems like a pretty sullen no comment from a guy who was so gregarious just a day earlier. Gamesmanship? Maybe. Irked that he couldn’t close the deal? Maybe. Disappointed to learn that another team had offered far more than the Marlins could match? Maybe.
• BN’er Cliffy passes along some thoughts from Phil Rogers, who appeared on CTL last night. There, Rogers noted his belief that the Cubs and Sox are still in on Cespedes, and that the Marlins might not have enough money left to sign Cespedes to the kind of contract he’s going to command.
• The Yankees and Pirates have been discussing a possible AJ Burnett trade, but the Pirates have been unwilling to pick up much of the disappointing righty’s salary. You can see some tangential implications here (if the Yanks move Burnett, they’ll have more money to devote to a DH; the Pirates might be ever-so-slightly improved; etc.), but none are particularly compelling.

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On the heels of ranking the 30 farm systems in baseball (the Chicago Cubs came in 20th), ESPN’s Keith Law also revealed his top 100 overall prospects in baseball, as well as each system’s top 10.

Unsurprisingly, the Cubs had three prospects in Law’s top 100, and they’re the three you’d expect – outfielder Brett Jackson, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and shortstop Javier Baez. Somewhat surprisingly, though, none is ranked even remotely as high as they are on other top 100 lists, save for Rizzo, who comes in at 36. Jackson, who is roundly considered a top 40 prospect, is ranked 89th by Law. Baez, usually in the top 50, is 95th.

Law’s work is premium content, so you’ll have to pay if you want all the details, including a brief scouting report on each of the three players in the top 100. In short, Law likes Rizzo for all the reasons others do (great numbers at a young age, great defense, great makeup, etc.). As for Baez, Law is similarly complimentary, noting Baez’s excellent swing, and strong athleticism. In fact, Law thinks it’s possible Baez could stick at shortstop (where his value would be at its highest) if he works hard enough at it, and, you know, doesn’t grow too much more.

On Jackson, Law focuses on what many naysayers do: Jackson’s lack of contact. Law praises Jackson as an athlete and a defender, but doesn’t see a great deal of power in Jackson’s future. In other words, Law sees an average MLB regular, but no more, unless Jackson cuts down on the strikeouts.

As for the Cubs’ top 10 prospects, Law’s list looks a fair bit different from others we’ve seen:

1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B

2. Brett Jackson, OF

3. Javier Baez, SS

4. Trey McNutt, RHP

5. Zach Cates, RHP

6. Welington Castillo, C

7. Dillon Maples, RHP

8. Josh Vitters, 3B

9. Reggie Golden, OF

10. Matt Szczur, CF

As you can see, Law is much lower on Szczur than most, and much (much) higher on, for example, Cates (who typically shows up around 15 to 20). Law is also a bit higher on Golden than most. He seems to have a preference, in general, for younger, high upside players, rather than older, higher floor types.

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I’d reckon that most of you are familiar with Al Yellon’s BleedCubbieBlue blog (the Cubs’ rep on the SB Nation network). I’ve been a reader and commenter over there for a long time, and Al recently asked if I would be in contributing an occasional post. So, starting on Monday, a few times a week, I’ll be putting together a bullets-style post consisting of items of interest from around MLB (i.e., non-Cub). If you just can’t get enough Brett-Bullets here at BN, head over to BCB next week to get additional fix. And now, back to your originally-scheduled programming…

• Cubs’ GM Jed Hoyer was on the radio yesterday speaking candidly on a wide range of topics (many of which will be the subject of upcoming posts), as we have come to expect from the new guys in charge. One subject on Hoyer’s mind was the past and future performance of the Cubs’ expected closer, Carlos Marmol. “I don’t think what happened last year is acceptable,” Hoyer said Thursday on “The Carmen, Jurko & Harry Show” on ESPN 1000. “I think there’s nothing more demoralizing to a baseball team than to win for 2:45 and then lose in the last 10. I think that happened a lot last year. If you look back, this guy has had some dominant years …. Everyone said the slider wasn’t quite the same last. Hopefully there are some mechanical things we can do to get that back. Blowing 10 saves isn’t acceptable, but we’re not wiling to say he can’t get back to where he was before.” It’s odd to hear a GM speaking from a default position that “we won’t say he *won’t* be good again,” rather than “we think he’ll get it back next year.” I know they’re just words, but it almost sounds a little defeatist. I’m confident that the Cubs would have preferred to move Marmol this Winter, but the closer market collapsed pretty early in the offseason. So, I think Marmol’s already behind the 8-ball a little bit with this front office, and hopefully he’ll pitch well enough in the first half of the year to give the Cubs some options.
• Jed will soon be heading to Spring Training, to which he’s driving from Chicago with his dog. Of note, Hoyer says the Cubs will be having their organizational meetings next week (Wednesday and Thursday), which meetings you’ll recall were postponed from early in the offseason. I imagine that a number of the things typically discussed at organizational meetings have already been settled, and these meetings will be about a variety of important in-season items (player development and scouting, what players should be focusing on, etc. – making sure that everyone in a position of authority in the organization is on the same page).
• Ryan Dempster was on MLBN Radio discussing his and the Cubs’ struggles, and the 34-year-old starter says he hopes to stay in Chicago for a long, good time. “I’ve never quit anything in my life and I don’t want to quit it now,” Dempster said. “I want to be there when we’re winning and we’re winning on a consistent basis and, most importantly, when we’re winning a World Series. If that means you’re fighting through some tough times, sometimes that makes it more gratifying in the end …. I’m looking forward to, hopefully, staying in Chicago the rest of my career and being a Cub and [helping to bring] a World Series to [a] city that deserves it so much now on the North Side.” I’ve always liked Ryan Dempster, and I want him to achieve success. But, unfortunately, it’s hard to see him back on the Cubs in 2013 – if he continues to slide this year, the Cubs may not want him back; if he pitches well this year, he might price himself out of the Cubs’ reasonable range.
• If you wanted to buy Carlos Zambrano’s Chicago residence, it just got a little easier. Now, instead of throwing away an unthinkable $969,000 on Zambrano’s 13-room, 4,000 square foot home in River Forest, you can get it for a mere $929,000. If you point out all the holes in the walls, I bet you can get another $10k knocked off.
• Cubs owner Laura Ricketts introduced President Obama at a fundraiser last night, and the President was gracious: Thank you, Laura, for the wonderful introduction – the best introduction that a Cubs fan has ever given me,” Obama said. “The rivalry is fierce in Chicago, but I’ll make an exception here.” That’s nice and all, Mr. President, but we’ll never forget what you said about Cubs fans a few years ago: “You go to Wrigley Field, you have a beer, beautiful people up there. People aren’t watching the game. It’s not serious. White Sox, that’s baseball. South Side.” For shame, sir. (This is not an invitation to discuss politics, folks. You may freely criticize President Obama for his embarrassingly terrible choice in baseball teams, but that’s it.)
• Jon Morosi offers an interesting take on the pressures associated with signing a $100 million contract.
• When lineup discussions come up this early, you often hear people grouse that “we’re really talking about this already?” Well, here’s something to get you grousing: how about a discussion on what the lineup will look like … in June. Courtesy of Oswego Chris on the BN Message Board.

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Last week, the Chicago Cubs signed (well, “reportedly” signed, as the team has yet to make an official announcement) 19-year-old Cuban lefty Gerardo Concepcion to a $7 million Major League deal, which could reach $8 million in value with certain incentives.

Spending that kind of money and guaranteeing a 40-man roster spot to a 19-year-old kid suggests the Cubs think quite highly of Concepcion. To our eyes, though, there has been very little available on the lefty, thanks in large part to the restrictive nature of his home country. In other words: we haven’t really been able to watch the kid pitch. But the Cubs’ front office has been able to see him a number of times, and they clearly liked what they saw.

So, how did everyone else feel about the deal? About Concepcion’s future? Here are a number of notable bits on the Cubs’ newest, possibly best, left-handed pitching prospect:

• Most scouting reports have Concepcion as a very mature pitcher for his age. He is very polished, and has outstanding control. His fastball sits in the upper-80s/lower-90s, though that could tick higher in a couple years. He’s got a good breaking ball, and he also throws a changeup. Few believe he’s got an upside beyond a back-end of the rotation starter (though I highly doubt the Cubs would have spent so lavishly (even in the shadow of the new CBA) if they didn’t think there was a chance that he could be a three or a two), but he’s also thought to have a very high floor (i.e., low probability of completely busting).
• Baseball America had this to say: “Concepcion is a slender 6-foot-2 with long arms, sloped shoulders and an athletic, wiry build that could have some projection remaining. He has advanced feel for pitching for his age and has shown the ability to pitch with his fastball to both sides of the plate, though he doesn’t have the stuff to miss many bats. At times his fastball ranges from 88-92 mph, though some scouts have said they’ve seen him dip to 86-90 mph at times. Concepcion has had success in Cuba by being able to change speeds to keep hitters off balance. Some scouts like Concepcion’s mid-70s curveball, which shows good depth at times, but others say it gets loopy. He throws slightly across his body, which provides him with a little deception, but it’s a concern for some scouts who think his mechanics hamper his ability to get to the front side of his delivery and show consistency with his breaking ball. Concepcion also throws a changeup (some scouts have called it a splitter), though like many young pitchers it’s still a work in progress. While some scouts view Concepcion’s upside as a No. 5 starter, others see a bit more, though with his present stuff it’s hard to project more than a back-end starter for now.
• Concepcion was the rookie of the year at Cuba’s highest professional level last year, putting up a 3.36 ERA – 11th best in the league – in a little over 100 innings of work. He didn’t strike out too many, just 4.7 per 9, but didn’t walk a ton either (about 3.8 per 9). Numbers aren’t everything, but Concepcion’s are impressive. Even if you consider professional Cuban baseball to be the equivalent of High-A ball here, I’d be thrilled to see one of the Cubs’ 18-year-old pitching prospects put up those kind of numbers in Daytona.
• BP’s Kevin Goldstein weighed in both on the signing and on Concepcion as a prospect. As for Concepcion as a prospect, Goldstein would rank the lefty sixth in the Cubs’ system, but that doesn’t mean Goldstein is a huge fan. “This is not a guy to get crazy excited about,” Goldstein said on MLBN Radio. “This is not a guy who, if I had to re-do my Top 101 prospects list, I would put on. In fact, I wouldn’t even consider it. He wouldn’t even sniff the list …. His ceiling is probably as a four or five starter and that’s it. But, he does have a safer floor than most teenaged pitchers just because of how crazy polished he is. You talk to people who went to his private workouts and not-so-private workouts, he doesn’t show a ton of stuff.”
• Because of his age, Goldstein doesn’t think Concepcion will pitch beyond A-ball this year (recall, the Cubs can get a fourth option year if Concepcion spends this entire year at Low-A ball, so don’t be discouraged if that’s where he stays – if pitches at a higher level this year, he’s likely to get only three option years, which means the Cubs would have to call him up by 2015, when he’s just 22).
• As for the signing, Goldstein wasn’t impressed with the price paid by the Cubs, believing that the $7 million was far more than other teams offered (he hasn’t heard of an offer over $2.5 million), and was simply craziness associated with the upcoming changes to the CBA (to which I say … um, yeah, so? If that’s what it costs to ensure you get some of these kids before spending limits kick in, and you’ve got the money, why not use it?). Absent the CBA changes, Goldstein guessed that Concepcion would have been paid in the $1.5 to $2 million range.
• FanGraphs sees the signing as a good one, even if it was an “overpay”: “The lofty price tag does not mean the Chicago Cubs made a poor signing, though. Concepcion may not have a high ceiling, but he is an extremely polished young pitcher and is considered a safe bet to reach the big leagues in some capacity. Any big league talent that will be under team control for at least six seasons provides substantial value for a rebuilding club, like the Cubs, and if the organization has money to burn and overpay for a probable back-end starter, more power to them. It will ultimately help.”

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Back from my colonoscopy this morning (all went well, thanks for the kind words – hopefully what follows is coherent), and plunging right into the rumor mill…

• As we discussed previously, yesterday Yoenis Cespedes – in the States on a travel visa only (no work visa yet) – met with Marlins’ brass, and toured the facilites in Miami. Marlins’ president David Samson, who has been outspoken in his team’s pursuit of Cespedes, was uncharacteristically vague in his comments after the visit. “It was good to see him again,” Samson said on his weekly segment of the Dan LeBatard Show. “We hadn’t seen him since he was in the Dominican. He’s still not a free agent officially. But he was able to be in town for some appointments, I guess. He wanted to come and see the ballpark, and we’re always happy to show people the ballpark.” Is he being coy? Was he bummed out that he couldn’t snatch up Cespedes immediately on the visit? It just strikes me as odd to go from talking about your aggressive pursuit and a possible offer, to saying things like Cespedes “was able to be in town for some appointments, I guess.”
• If Cespedes had left the visit with an offer in hand – even though he can’t yet execute a contract – I would be surprised if we didn’t hear about, given how loudly the Marlins were making offers back in December. That said, I wouldn’t read too much into any of this. The Marlins are probably the favorite to sign Cespedes, but a lot can happen before the opening of Spring Training.
• A Chicago source told me yesterday that he, too, has heard Cespedes is very likely to wind up signing with the Marlins, for what it’s worth.
• Red Sox sources still expect the Theo Epstein compensation issue to be resolved before the start of Spring Training. After hearing from multiple sources earlier in the week that Josh Vitters’ was the name being tossed around, I’m now told the compensation will probably be of a “lesser value” than Vitters. That sounds more reasonable.
• Bruce Levine chatted this week, as he does, and the highlights included: (1) Bruce believes Adrian Cardenas could push Darwin Barney for starts if Cardenas’ glove looks good at second base (Levine sees Barney as more of a back-up player); (2) the Cubs will need career years out of a number of players to compete in 2012 (which he said in response to a question about the possibility of trading Matt Garza and Geovany Soto – in other words, the Cubs are going to suck either way); (3) if everyone is healthy and pitching well in Spring Training, Bruce thinks Randy Wells could be traded; (4) Bruce hasn’t heard anything on Jorge Soler; (5) Bruce still thinks compensation to Boston will not be “a top prospect,” and will include some cash; and (6) someone will pick up Blake DeWitt, whom Bruce calls a hard worker and an outstanding individual (but one who was never very impressive on the field).
• The Rangers bought out shortstop Elvis Andrus’ three arbitration years yesterday for $14.4 million. Andrus has been a career 80 OPS+ hitting, but is coming off his best campaign, in which he hit .279/.347/.361 at age 22. His defense is roundly considered above average at shortstop. Why am I telling you all of this? Starlin Castro’s arbitration years are coming up (he’s likely to be eligible for arbitration next year as a Super Two), and it’s probably time to start thinking about this kind of deal for Castro, if not longer. He gets the security of some guaranteed, life-changing money, and the Cubs get a payroll break in exchange for taking on the risk of injury or ineffectiveness.
• Rich Harden will miss the 2012 season after another arm injury. He recently underwent shoulder surgery with Dr. James Andrews, who is putting his great grandkids through college thanks to Harden’s largesse.
• The Red Sox haven’t made much progress on signing Roy Oswalt, who is also being pursued – in theory – by the Cardinals and Reds. Oswalt’s free agency is still of modest relevance to the Cubs, who could see the market for Matt Garza chance ever-so-slightly depending on where Oswalt signs. (It also matters if he signs with the Reds or Cards, for obvious reasons).

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2. Lukewarm Stove: Cespedes (Yes, Still), Ibanez, Oswalt, Bailey, Jackson While we're still obsessing about Yoenis Cespedes (obsespedes?), one of...
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Well, I’m finishing up my prep and heading to my colonoscopy this morning. I will have limited ability to post for the rest of the morning, so, to the extent any big news or rumors break, please let folks know in the comments, and I’ll be sure to write anything up once I’m back to lucidity.

• Baseball Prospectus came out with its first PECOTA projections of the offseason (basically they use super-advanced math to project stats for each player on a team’s roster, and then project how the team will perform in the upcoming season – it’s all premium content stuff, so if you the juicy bits, you’ll have to get a BP subscription). Overall, the projection has the Cubs with a .460 winning percentage, which is about 74.5 wins. That sounds about right, and might even be … encouraging.
• For the individual players, most of the numbers look about as you’d suspect. PECOTA sees a big bounce-back for Carlos Marmol and Geovany Soto, but sees a pretty significant regression in store for Matt Garza. Indeed, PECOTA doesn’t really like many of the Cubs’ pitchers, projecting bad years for Travis Wood and Randy Wells, and awful years for Chris Volstad and Jeff Samardzija. Oddly, at this point, I see the Cubs’ pitching staff as a strength.
• Keith Law ranked MLB’s farm systems (another premium article, so, once again, you want all the good stuff, you gotta pay) and the Cubs came in at number 20. Obviously that seems a tad low, but Law explains: “An unfairly maligned system, in my opinion – not a great system, but not a disastrous one. And I say that as someone who’s relatively bearish on some of the Cubs’ more famous prospects.” The theme this year for the minor league system remains: with so much high upside talent at the low levels, the Cubs’ system could really break out. Or, it could continue to hover around “aspirational.”
• Law isn’t alone, by the way – John Sickels, who likes the Cubs’ system for what it is, also ranked it 20th in baseball.
• New Cub Adrian Cardenas, in addition to playing ball, is also a writer, studying his craft at NYU. He sounds like a smart, very hard working dude. The Cubs are making a habit of adding guys who are very easy to root for. (h/t CSN)
• Fluff on new Cubs manager Dale Sveum. In short, Sveum works very hard, and he expects his players to do the same.

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