Bleachers to the North

Matt Moore: The Pre-Arb Contract Extension and Brett Lawrie

2011-12-09T15:22:00.001-05:00

Every team in baseball should do this. Today, the Tampa Bay Rays announced they had locked up Matt Moore through at least 2016 at $14M, with three club options tacked on the end.

Why do players sign these types of deals? Sure, they get the pleasure of a guaranteed multi-million dollar deal, but they also forgo the chance to earn hundreds of millions of dollars as soon as their six years are up. Moore is a pitcher, which increases his chance of injury of failure to make adjustments, either fate of which many top pitching prospects have fallen to in recent years, notably Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, and to a point, Edwin Jackson.

It's one thing to follow what Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, and recently Matt Kemp have done, and another altogether to sign a player with a next-to-nothing amount of Major League service.

Deals of this kind operation under the assumption that if the player doesn't perform anywhere near expectations, the team will be saddled with a dead-weight contract. But, what kind of standards does Moore have to play to to live up to his salary? The answer: very low ones. Using my number of $2.4M per WAR (as Moore did not sign the contract before a full market), Moore will have to produce 5.8 wins. He could easily do that in 2012-2013 combined, if the Rays plan on giving him a starting gig right away.
I suppose the player's willingness to sign this type of contract depends on the individual player, but the Toronto Blue Jays need to sign Brett Lawrie to a similar contract, and soon. Sure, they probably won't have any problem retaining him if they wait a few years and using the Ryan Braun template, but this is about the reward of saving a ton of money at a disproportionate risk.

A Word About Building an Effective Bullpen

2011-12-02T09:22:00.001-05:00

Jonny Venters used his fastball-slider
combo to one baseball's best reliever seasons.
How did the Braves build such a dominant 'pen?

As detailed in BTTN's previous post, market value figures (~$4.5-5M/WAR) shouldn't be used to evaluate a player's value to his team in money, as while the going rate for free agents, a large amount of player's aren't playing under a Free Agent contract, and thus all players should simply be valued by the approximate $2.4M per WAR figure derived.

Relievers, I've realized, make the value system even more complicated. Teams suggest that they don't impulsively act by advanced metrics, and have strong decision-making ability within their front offices - yet we continue to see free agent relievers get paid based on the WAR-values they accumulate. So far this offseason, we've seen Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon get contracts that guarantee themselves $77M in the coming years, with others such as K-Rod, figuring to get similar astronomical amounts.

Yes, certain relievers, after inputting the 'Leverage Index' values into their WAR's (which determine the amount of leverage the relievers pitched in, and therefore can make a more accurate determination to their win-values), seem to be even 2-3 win-players. Craig Kimbrel's historically dominant season, even with his stumbles at the end of September, which can be strictly blamed on overuse, is valued by Fangraphs at 3.2 WAR. And yes, he was certainly worth 3.2 more wins than a scrub reliever available for the minimum (Wil Ledezma?).

But the thing is,finding dominant relievers can be much, much cheaper to do than to spend the big cash, and certainly much more easy than finding studs at any position. Two teams in recent years, have not only built up great bullpens, but have also solved the secrets of baseball's most misunderstood identity - by the media, fans, and even the players themselves.

First, the Atlanta Braves of course had a historically strong bullpen in 2011, one highlighted by perhaps the most dominant trio in Major League history - Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty. Of course, none of these relievers (or any others on the Braves) are making any money at all, and that's due to their organizational philosophy towards the bullpen. The Braves have drafted (and signed in Latin America) various starters in recent years pitchers that may have potential to start, yet have strong pedigrees if forced to relieve. High-upside arms with fallback options. In short, your bullpen should truly be filled with young players that have failed as starters. Venters and O'Flaherty both started their minor league careers as starters, but the Braves pulled the plug on both experiments as they struggled.

This is a fact that has seemed a simple truism yet hasn't been utilized with any consistency as the closer role becomes more and more prolific as we enter deeper into the information age. Teams want to spend money on closers, figuring that, the position deserves the attention to detail that fans feel it deserves.

Many teams shy away from these types of players, preferring to stay away from youngsters they believe don't have a high chance of remaining as starters, yet these are many of the same teams that spend oodles of cash in Free Agency on relievers. It just doesn't add up. The Detroit Tigers have historically been one of these teams, signing both Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit to high-priced deals in recent offseason, and may have learnt their lesson as a no-name grabbed off the scrap heap, Al Alburquerque (sic) had one of the American League's best relief seasons to no expectations whatsoever.

These no-name arms with relief upside are all over the place, with the Tampa Bay Rays having mastered the art of finding them. By signing Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, Juan Cruz, and others, the Rays overcame great adversity after losing many of their 2010 bullpen cogs to other teams.

Even drafting pure relievers is a fairly cost-efficient strategy. Drew Storen of the Nationals and Chris Sale of the White Sox have proven that they can be extremely effective relievers to a fraction of the cost of Free Agent options. Sure, drafting a guy like Storen costs a draft pick, but he's likely to pitch just as effectively as Jonathan Papelbon over the next half-decade, and to markedly less than his counterpart.

That teams will pay tens of millions of dollars without considering the eventual source of these relievers is incredible. Simply by understanding how the full system works can save a team tens of millions a year on their bullpen, and even improve the effectiveness of their 'pen.

Please leave a comment!

How Should Value Be Measured Monetarily?

2011-11-27T10:38:00.001-05:00

Slapping dollar values on a particular player's performance is generally done by multiplying his WAR for the season by about $5M, the current market value teams pay for a single win above replacement.

Yet, an overwhelming amount of Major Leaguers are not operating on contracts obtained through Free Agency. Using the aforementioned methodology certainly has its uses: Without getting into salary inflation, and his decline into the latter years of a long-term deal, Prince Fielder can be expected to be a 5-win player for 2012 and therefore worth $25M.

Just as WAR can't be used in all situations (Even statheads will admit that MVP races shouldn't be entirely defined by WAR, neither should Hall of Fame balloting), and of course, WAR is far from perfect (defensive metrics need a ton of work in general, and are very poor in small samples), neither should this way to calculate a dollar value to a player.

My point is that, the Major Leagues spent $2,786,161,291 on 2011 Opening Day salaries, and used that money to generate a total of 1163.6 WAR (Fangraphs version), or $2,394,432.19 per single win above replacement. I believe this number should be referenced when describing a player's value to a team in dollars, while Free Agent contracts should be evaluated based on the market figure of $5M.

Jose Bautista was therefore worth $19,873,787.18 in 2011, in his last year of arbitration eligibility. This is roughly half of Fangraphs' calculated value of $37.4M, yet represents the true value Bautista would have had to any team.

If you think evaluating players based on this principle is a fair point (or otherwise), please leave a comment!

Bleachers to the North is Back! And Rebranded!

2011-11-26T22:33:00.001-05:00

Bleachers to the North could no longer support multiple sports, and had been largely driven by myself anyway, a huge Toronto Blue Jays fan with a nose for statistical analysis.

So I thought, why not just re-brand as purely a baseball blog, providing content on the Blue Jays and the rest of MLB, with a focus on sabermetrics? And thus, an idea was born, albeit not a very unique one, and hence I will work towards producing articles with a different edge to them than that of the dozens (hundreds?) of other blogs out there.

As before, commentary on my ideas/analysis is much appreciated, as sports are intended to be discussed to no end.

Reaction To ESPN's Franchise Player Draft; BTTN's Own Franchise Player Draft

2011-06-02T12:24:00.002-04:00

Longoria's contract, bat, and sparkling defense
make him a player any team would covet

Yesterday, ESPN had 30 of its baseball employees take part in a one-round and as frustrating as the criteria were (Keith Law, selecting Longoria, clearly believes contracts should factor into the drafting, while Joe Mauer-love Jim Caple clearly does not), some of the selections were much more boggling.

I mean, it is ridiculous to think that Neftali Feliz, Wilson Ramos, and Buster Posey were actually drafted. Feliz could very well turn into a plus-starter, and Ramos could be a 4 WAR catcher, but none of them come close to Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, or even Josh Hamilton

It is unthinkable that Jay Bruce was nowhere to be seen. David Shoenfield was quoted as saying

"Bruce is good, but let's not get carried because he just had the best month of his career. He's been great for one month ... he may be great for many more months, but he hasn't proven that yet." But Jay Bruce was Baseball America's top prospect (yes, #1 overall) in 2008, and has had some solid major league seasons since. The second he shows elite production, Jay Bruce should be vaulted to the top of franchise player rankings the world over.

Among other clear gaffes (decisions that are practically undefendable) are Amy K. Nelson's selection of Tim Lincecum at 5th overall, and Justin Upton falling to 29th. Lincecum's arm is, of course, going to fall off one of these years, perhaps after his changeup becomes ineffective due to his rapidly declining fastball velocity. Whine about Upton all you want, but the kid's a stud, and is well on his way to a 5 WAR season in 2011. I don't care about how much hype a prospect gets, you really can't be disappointed in a 4.8 WAR season at age 21, and a 5 WAR season at age 23.

Thus, we at BTTN elected to carry out our own draft of any player in baseball, contracts (and any other real-life variables) considered. Team identities will follow the order of the 4th-50th rounds of the 2011 MLB draft, which would also be the first few rounds if compensatory selections were not awarded.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Evan Longoria, 3B
Longoria has easily the most favourable team contract in baseball, if not all pro sports, in addition to already being an elite performer at third base with room for a bit more growth.
2. Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez, SP
Why not? King Felix is a great fit for their ballpark, has a favourable contract, and is already one of the best pitchers in the game. A natural and easy selection.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Colorado's rival Arizona ends up selecting the franchise shortstop. Tulo has a lengthy contract that, let's face it, could turn into an albatross if Tulowitzki injuries keep piling up, but he's the best all-around shortstop in baseball at the moment for good reason.
4. Baltimore Orioles: Jason Heyward, OF
Playing in the AL East, Baltimore needs a bona-fide superstar and boy, is Heyward that type of player. Displaying all five tools as well as the most-important trait that isn't one, patience, Heyward should provide the framework to the Orioles team for years to come.
5. Kansas City Royals: Justin Verlander, SP
Verlander is your classic workhorse. He may not have a history of sub-3.00 ERA seasons, but he's the real deal.
6. Washington Nationals: Jay Bruce, SP
Jay Bruce is ready to have a 40-homer season right now. Former #1 prospect in the game by Baseball America, he's ready to take that next step and become MLB's next superstar.
7. Cleveland Indians: Joey Votto, 1B
Nothing team-specific to point out here, Votto is the type of bat that can drive an entire team, and is a plus defender at first.
8. Chicago Cubs: Bryce Harper, OF
The Cubs will need to put together some serious talent to break their 100+ year streak, and Harper is the way to go.
9. Houston Astros: Robinson Cano, 2B
Second base is becoming one of those position where elite talent is hard to find. The Astros, like the Nationals, have the cash to pay Cano his favourable contract that runs through 2013.
10. Milwaukee Brewers: Mike Stanton, OF
Mike Stanton has probably the most raw power of any player in the Majors currently. With a bit more seasoning, he's likely to be good for 40+ home runs annually while not killing you in average or on-base.
11. New York Mets: David Price, SP
David Price is a franchise pitcher and being mechanically sound is fit to warrant this early selection, avoiding the notion that due to health concerns, position players are eternally more valuable than pitchers.
12. Florida Marlins: Mike Trout, OF
Mike Trout is a perfect fit for the Marlins. A great player development team, the Marlins won't be fazed by Trout's relative inexperience.
13. Los Angeles Dodgers: Hanley Ramirez, SS
Hanley may be having a sub-par 2011 (a pitiful 72 wRC+) but it's hard to overlook his fantastic past success.
14. Los Angels Angels: Justin Upton, OF
The Angels have trouble developing power in their prospects as Upton naturally falls to them.
15. Oakland Athletics: Jon Lester, SP
Lester is a great fit for the A's ideals, ballpark, and cost considerations.

Stay tuned for the second half of the first round, to be released on BTTN in a few days!

Brett Lawrie Hysterics In Full Force

2011-06-01T17:39:00.001-04:00

As you probably already know, Brett Lawrie has been rumoured to be earning the call this Friday (via signs from both team employees and armchair conspiracy theorists alike) for the Blue Jays first game against the Baltimore Orioles.

The only doubt at this point is whether or not his recent hand-mashing against Tucson will push back his Major League debut a few days. Incidentally, in the game, fellow 51s took the blow to Lawrie as seriously as most diehard fans such as myself, as Lawrie's top prosect counterpart Anthony Rizzo was blasted by a heater during his very next plate appearance and left the game as well.

Let's hope this chain of events will lead Major League Baseball to assign San Diego as the Blue Jays interleague 'rival', instead of the perennial powerhouse Phillies, starting in 2012.

Nonethless, what could Brett Lawrie do for Toronto this year? Will he have a Ryan Braun-like impact or take a few years to adjust to Major League breaking balls? Rookie of the Year or Bust of the 2008 Draft (interestingly enough, only Kyle Skipworth and Ethan Martin are among players drafted ahead of Lawrie's 16 that can be assigned as likely busts).

There's certainly no stead-fast way to tell; This instance of seeing how minor leaguers adjust to the majors can't definitively be predicted statistically. With his fast-improving approach and smart baserunning skills, I think he has the tools to make adjustments as necessary. But we'll just have to wait and see.

Fast Track To Contention - Blue Jays Best-Case Scenario Through 2012

2011-05-10T12:24:00.001-04:00

Brett Lawrie represents a huge part of the Blue Jays future,
but what could that future potentially hold?

Now that the first month-plus of the 2011 Major League Baseball season is in the books, Blue Jays fans have grown to realize that, while this year's team could certainly win 85 games again, they probably won't be competing for a playoff spot. Blue Jays management is likely more focused on player development this season than contention in the standings.

We all know the Blue Jays are in for a serious roster re-working in the not-so-distant future, but what exactly does that entail, and what will happen in everything goes as planned? In this post, I will outline the ideal scenario for the Blue Jays in 2011 and beyond.

May 18th, 2011

After making the necessary adjustments and flat-out raking in Vegas, Travis Snider is called back up to Toronto with a new approach at the plate and it shows; Snider then goes on to hit 20 homers with a .270/.340/.500 line for the rest of the season.

June 3rd, 2011

After hitting .320/.390/.600 with AAA Las Vegas, Brett Lawrie makes his much anticipated debut for the Blue Jays as the team faces off in Baltimore against the Orioles.

July 12th, 2011

Jose Bautista starts for the American League in the All-Star Game in Phoenix, Arizona after leading the Major Leagues in votes. At the time, Bautista has regressed in the batting average department, but is still drawing a prolific amount of walks with a .450 OBP. Ricky Romero, with a 3.25 ERA, is also named to the team.

July 31st, 2011

The Blue Jays react as very active neutralists at the 2011 Trade Deadline, both making trades to acquire major leaguers, and deal them. Headlining the Blue Jays moves is an acquisition of Fausto Carmona (who at the time is sporting a 3.60 ERA) in exchange for Zach Stewart, Henderson Alvarez, and a PTBNL. After a blistering start, the Indians make the trade due to a lackluster June stretch that sees them falling five games under .500 at the deadline.

Contrastingly, Toronto trades Jason Frasor to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for relief prospect Jacob Petricka. Juan Rivera plays well enough leading up to the deadline (hitting .270/.340/.440), leading the Blue Jays to deal him to San Francisco for a PTBNL or cash. Trading away Rivera opens up a starting spot for Eric Thames, who responds with a .250/.330/.425 line in his first two weeks with the big league club.

September 24th, 2011
Toronto Blue Jays are eliminated from playoff contention after an otherwise fantastic run, and one unexpected at that. Fan optimism grows tenfold from the season before and over the last week of the season 30,000+ fans show up to every game to cheer on the club.

September 28th, 2011
Blue Jays finish with an 87-75 record, good enough for second in the AL Wild Card race, as both the Yankees and Red Sox make the postseason. Leading the charge are Ricky Romero, who ends with a 3.40 ERA and his first 200 strikeout season, Jose Bautista, who follows up his breakout year with a near-unanimous MVP season as he goes .290/.430/.600 and 47 HR, and Brandon Morrow who shows that his 2010 peripherals were no fluke as he goes 16-8 with a 3.55 ERA. Alex Anthopoulos meanwhile wins Executive of the Year, aided by his acquisitions and a poor showing by Vernon Wells (who hits .250/.310/.395) in Anaheim.

December 5-8th (Winter Meetings in Dallas, Texas), 2011

In a move mirroring the Shaun Marcum - Brett Lawrie swap, the Toronto Blue Jays acquire prospects Brett Jackson and Rafael Dolis in return for star starter Ricky Romero. Alex Anthopoulos states "We're still very optimistic about Anthony Gose's future with the Blue Jays, but we also love Jackson as a prospect and knew this was a perfect chance to acquire some high-end talent at such a premier defensive position as centerfield."

The plan is for Jackson to slide right into the lineup starting in late April 2012, adding an extra year before free agency, but not ensuring non-Super Two status.

With all of the pitching prospects coming up in the Blue Jays system and the emergence of Brandon Morrow as an ace, Ricky Romero was certainly expendable, and the Blue Jays solidify their future outfield of Snider - Jackson/Gose - Bautista.

Chicago meanwhile, goes on to sign Albert Pujols to a ground-breaking 8-year, $210M deal, validating their decision to trade their top position prospect in exchange for a premier pitcher.

December 17th, 2011

Blue Jays sign Edwin Jackson to a 4-year, $30M deal, becoming the seventh MLB team to employ Jackson. The move solidifies rotational depth and adds a middle-of-the-rotation workhorse with potential for more. The Blue Jays plan to enter 2012 with a rotation of Morrow-Carmona-Jackson-Drabek-Stewart.

December 19th, 2011
With pitching prospects and established veterans aplenty, Alex Anthopoulos decides to trade Brett Cecil to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for high-upside 2010 draftee RHP Tyrell Jenkins.

February 11th, 2012

After good follow-up seasons, Travis Snider and Brandon Morrow are both signed to lengthy extensions that buy out their entire arbitration and more. Snider is given 5 years, $30M, while Morrow signs for 6 years, $60M. Alex Anthopoulos declares "The rest of the American League should watch out, these extensions will keep us in the playoff picture for years to come."

May 1st, 2012
After hosting over 30,000 fans in each of the Blue Jays April home games, the club is an opportunistic 18-13, and sits atop the AL East. Doubts from media personnel outside of Canada vanish regarding the validity of baseball in Toronto.

June 10th, 2012
After tearing up the American League in the first half of 2012, Jose Bautista collects the most votes of any Major League player and starts in right field for the AL in the 2012 MLB All-Star Game in Kansas City. Brandon Morrow and Fausto Carmona also take part in the festivities.

September 27th, 2012
Jose Bautista hits his 200th career home run in front of a packed house at the Rogers Centre. Two days later, the Blue Jays, clinch the American League wild card and are two games back of the Boston Red Sox for the best record in the AL.

October 4th, 2012
October baseball is back in Canada, and the Blue Jays respond by defeating Texas 7-3 in the first game of their ALDS matchup with the Rangers. However, the Rangers storm back to take three of the next four games and advance to the ALCS. Nevertheless, season tickets sell out at exorbitant prices for 2013 and the impossible is made possible.

A few months later, Baseball America rates the Blue Jays system as the third best in baseball for 2013 (behind the Royals and Rays), and a conveyor belt of top prospects allows the club to establish a winning mentality for the next decade-plus.

Programming Notice

2011-04-29T20:08:00.001-04:00

BTTN apologize for infrequent posting over the past couple weeks and wish to inform you that over the next few months, Bleachers to the North will almost exclusively cover baseball. This will include well-thought out posts as well rumblings that follow significant on-field events.

Soon to be released is a best-case scenario post about the Blue Jays future, including 2011 and beyond.

Blue Jays Notes: Jays Playing Great Despite .500 Record, Positive Signs Emerge

2011-04-15T20:10:00.000-04:00

JP Arencibia has had a lot to smile about in 2011

Complain all you want about Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, but hey, it is a small sample size, and well, the rest of the team has been playing so well that we should focus on the positives.

I've always though of J.P. Arencibia as more of short-term filler until D'Arnaud and Perez reach the majors, but he's really impressed in every opportunity he's gotten this season and has a shot at Rookie of the Year if he gets enough work. And he should certainly get more work, I understand that Jose Molina is some sort of gamecalling savant but really, if 2011 truly is about 2012 and beyond, Arencibia should be playing five days a week at least.

The pitching staff has also vastly impressed me, as the Jays currently are 7th in the majors in ERA and at 3.07 are easily better than one would expect the end-of-season #1 team to finish with. Top to bottom, the rotation has been great, so who will vacate a position when Brandon Morrow comes back?

To me, it all depends on everyone's next start. If Brett Cecil gets rocked tonight against Boston (game currently scoreless), he may be called down until he velocity eclipses 90. Meanwhile, if Jo-Jo Reyes pitches poorly in his next start, he will almost certainly be waived/traded.

While the bullpen has pitched well statistically, they haven't done well in clutch situations, which will almost certainly even out over a larger sample.

Could Kyle Drabek Win AL Rookie of the Year?

2011-04-09T09:57:00.000-04:00

Kyle Drabek has a lot of things going for him in the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year race.

Firstly, he obviously has the talent to put up a sub-3.80 ERA with a respectable amount of strikeouts. Secondly, he's going to pitch the whole season, the Blue Jays will not be limiting his innings unless he really pushes the envelope and hits 210 in mid-September.

To date, his detractors have said that he's not 'ace'-caliber and while he could very well end up as a dependable workhorse over the next decade, he's never going to strike out guys at elite level or put up a sub-3.00.

Yet, after adding a lethal cutter (small sample size, but according to Fangraphs, the cutter has earned 2.7 wCT in his two starts, making it the second-best cutter in baseball so far), I think he's in for a serious re-evaluation.

I understand that his 3.65 xFIP shows that Kyle Drabek has gotten quite lucky, but since we're talking about Rookie of the Year, a 3.65 ERA would be well worth the accolade.

His main competitor, Rays top prospect Jeremy Hellickson is also off to hot start to the season as he struck out 10 batters in 5 2/3 innings pitched his first time out. Also on the horizon is Mariners rookie starter Michael Pineda, who allowed the minimum for a quality start in his season debut.

Obviously as I've said before, it's still very early, but keep an eye on these three hot-shot starters as they get into the stretch run as we could have a Rookie of the Year race not experienced in the American League in a few years.

Raptors Report Week 22: Jose Calderon on the Way Out?

2011-04-04T21:53:00.002-04:00

This article is by Sachin Arora, who also is the main contributor of RaptorsCage.com, a new Raptors fan-blog.

Mike Cassese/REUTERS

The Raptors finally snapped their losing streak against the Orlando Magic, and Jarryd Bayless was one of the main reasons why.

Once again, Bayless has sparked a point guard controversy. For some reason, the young point guard only seems to play well when Jose Calderon is out of the line-up and Bayless is in the starting line-up.

The reason for this is probably because Bayless is very potent, but when he’s coming off the bench he feels urged to force his offense because he needs to earn his minutes. When he’s starting he plays much more relaxed, and is in much more control.
Calderon will probably be shut down for the rest of the season, and Bayless will be given the keys.

Bayless is averaging 15.9 points in 8 games starter along with 7.5 assists.

If Bayless continues his stellar play for the rest of the season, Jose Calderon could start next season on the bench, or even on another team.

The Raptors might even end up drafting a point guard, and this will make Calderon even more expendable.

On another note, Andrea Bargnani is still being bothered by his ankle, and could very well be shut down for the remaining games.

Anyway, onto the report.

Record: 1-2

Performance on a scale of 1-10: 7.5

Here is a recap of the three games.

Raptors vs Bucks, L 98-104

Positives

The Raps were in it the whole game, and were solid defensively and on the glass. Andrea Bargnani finished with 22 points in his return to the line-up, and DeMar DeRozan contributed 20.

Negatives

The effort just wasn’t on the level of the Bucks. The Bucks are trying to make a playoff push, and the Raps just didn’t give a strong enough effort to get the W. Also, Andrea Bargnani only had two rebounds, which is quite frankly, embarassing.

Raptors @ Bulls, L 106-113

Positives

This was a successful game for the Raptors considering they scorched the NBA’s top defense for 106 points despite missing top scorer Andrea Bargnani and top distributor Jose Calderon. Without Bargnani in the line-up, the team looked much better defensively and played with much more energy. I don’t know if this is a coincidence, or if Bargnani just doesn’t motivate the team.

Jerryd Bayless was great as a starter once again, recording 26 points with 8 dimes, and Ed Davis recorded a double double of 17-11. DeMar DeRozan was also great with 26 and Leandro Barbosa contributed 18 off the bench.

Negatives

The Raps just didn’t rebound the ball well, and couldn’t finish the possessions. Derrick Rose was too good for the Raptors to handle, and the defense wasn’t good enough to secure the W. Reguardless, the Raps were in it the whole game, and this was a great effort.

Raptors vs Magic, W 102-98

Positives

Hedo Turkoglu’s return to Toronto was not very pleasant. He was booed and had a pretty poor game, and this has to be something to get Toronto fans happy. The Raps pulled out a phenomenal win in this one, taking down the Magic in front of a sold out ACC crowd.

Defensively, the team was fantastic, limiting the Magic to 98 points. On the glass, unbelievable. Reggie Evans tore down 17 rebounds, and outrebounded Dwight Howard. Jerryd Bayless was great once again, recording 23 points with 8 assists. DeMar DeRozan was fantastic, finishing with 24 points. His jumpshot was great , and he seemed to hit big shots at the right time. Leandro Barbosa also provided a nice spark off the bench.

Once again, Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani were out, but the effort seemed to be better.

Negatives

The Raptors had a hard time containing Dwight Howard. Not much else to say.

Overall, it was nice to see the Raps get a win and snap their losing streak. It’s great for the young guys’ confidence.

MLB Season Opens: 2011 BTTN Predictions For Everything Important

2011-03-31T21:15:00.001-04:00

We love Francisco Liriano for 2011, enough
to finish 2nd in AL Cy Young voting

Yes, the weather may not show it in Toronto and some northern US cities, but baseball has started, and all 30 teams will have kicked off their season by late-night tomorrow.

The Jays of course are playing the Twins in a Fri-Sat-Sun series (7:07 pm Friday) that starts their season, while 12 teams are in action today.

Without further ado, here are BTTN's 2011 MLB Predictions:

American League

AL East
1. Red Sox 96-66
2. Yankees 88-74*
3. Rays 86-76
4. Blue Jays 85-77
5. Orioles 79-83

Comments: This year's AL East is one of the strongest single-season divisions in recent history. I have faith in projecting four teams to finish over-.500 and perhaps five if Baltimore can continue to play well under Buck Showalter. I think the Yankees pitching staff is mildly underrated, AJ Burnett should bounce-back with at least a 4.40 ERA, and Ivan Nova should be good enough to be at least a league-average starter.

The Red Sox are clearly baseball's best team, with a deep staff and great lineup.

AL Central
1. Twins 86-76
2. White Sox 84-78
3. Tigers 84-78
4. Indians 64-98
5. Royals 59-103

Comments: As in recent years, the AL Central will be an open race right up until the final week with three teams racing for the pennant. Ultimately, I think that Francisco Liriano will improve greatly (as his 2010 2.66 FIP would suggest he should) and lead the Twins to another division title with Morneau and Mauer hitting at their 2009 paces.

AL West
1. Athletics 85-77
2. Rangers 83-79
3. Angels 75-87
4. Mariners 66-96

Comments: I do not at all like the Rangers pitching staff. After losing Cliff Lee, there's not much remaining and whether or not you believe in the Verducci Effect, it's impossible to not be concerned about C.J. Wilson's incredible spike in innings pitched from 2009-2010. After Wilson is a solid third starter in Colby Lewis who is due for at least some regression. After Lewis is, well, nothing really of note. I'm really at odds with the unproven combo of Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter and others and think the back of the rotation will be their Achilles heel.

Meanwhile the A's have a great, albeit overrated, pitching staff accented by a fantastic bullpen. They won't out-slug anybody, but their mix of good pitching and average hitting should be enough to take the division.

MVP
1. Robinson Cano 2. Evan Longoria 3. Mark Teixeira
Cy Young
1. Jon Lester 2. Francisco Liriano 3. Felix Hernandez
ROY
Kyle Drabek 2. Jeremy Hellickson 3. Tsuyoshi Nishioka

National League

NL East
1. Braves 87-75
2. Phillies 86-77*
3. Marlins 84-78
4. Mets 76-86
5. Nationals 70-92

Comments: The Phillies may have one of the best rotations ever, but that doesn't give them a free pass. I'm cautious to project them for more than 85 wins due to their weak offense and the questionable status of batting order stalwart Chase Utley. Without Utley in the game and with Rollins playing as he has been recently, there's not much pop in this lineup with the exception of Ryan Howard.

This leads me to project the balanced Atlanta Braves to take the division title. They have a top pitching staff and the offense to match. The Marlins should make some noise as well, as I think their young rotation and lineup will continue to improve and propel them to a better-than-.500 record.

**The Phillies will beat the Brewers in game 163 of the season, in a 1-game playoff.

NL Central
1. Reds 86-76
2. Brewers 85-78
3. Cardinals 82-80
4. Cubs 75-87
5. Pirates 71-91
6. Astros 66-96

Comments: It's hard to know for certain what happens of the NL Central's wide open field, but I think the Reds will repeat as division champions. If they can properly manage their young arms and the offense just has a repeat season, I can seem them running away with this race. But, Votto, Rolen and others are due to regress, leading me to project them cautiously.

The Brewers will be good, but not quite live up to the lofty expectations. I just don't see them winning 90 games with the dead weight they have at the back of their rotation.

NL West
1. Giants 84-78
2. Diamondbacks 82-80
3. Rockies 81-81
4. Dodgers 77-85
5. Padres 75-87

Comments: I think the Diamondbacks will take a huge step forward in 2011, everything's in place for them to do so. They were 16th in runs in 2010, and I expect them to improve on that number while their pitching will be much improved. It will not however be enough to overtake the Giants.

The Rockies and Dodgers have good foundations, but I just don't think they have the depth to contend in 2011, and the Padres just don't have anybody to do anything on offense.

MVP
1. Prince Fielder 2. Hanley Ramirez 3. Albert Pujols
Cy Young
1. Roy Halladay 2. Cliff Lee 3. Yovani Gallardo
ROY
1. Danny Espinosa 2. Freddy Freeman 3. Brandon Belt

PLAYOFFS
Red Sox over Athletics in 6
Twins over Yankees in 7

Braves over Giants in 6
Phillies over Reds in 5

Red Sox over Twins in 4
Braves over Phillies in 6

World Series: Red Sox over Braves in 6

Raptors Report Week 21: Andrea Bargnani on the Trading Block?

2011-03-28T20:26:00.001-04:00

Julian Wright was fantastic in college, but needs
to realize he's not 'the guy' for the Raptors.

This was arguably the worst week of the season for the Raptors, and many problems were risen in the locker room.

Julian Wright complained to Jay Triano when he was given playing time in the garbage minutes, and refused to enter the game. After the game Wright, or “Ju-Ju” as Reggie Evans would say, apologized and realized that his actions were wrong. The chemistry in the locker room still appears strong as the season comes to the end, and this will be a key to the teams success next season.

There has also been a report that the Raptors are now willing to trade Andrea Bargnani, and are looking to build the team around DeMar DeRozan and Ed Davis.

Bargnani apparently has very large market value, and if the Raptors can get a nice piece for him and pick of a true center, it could be time to part ways with Bargnani in the offseason.

Anyway, onto the report:

Record: 0-4

Performance on a scale of 1-10: 4

Here is a recap of the four games:

Raptors @ Denver, L 90-123

Positives

Just a bad game in general for the Raps in this one. Andrea Bargnani scored 20, but was also a -26 so I don’t even know if that’s considered a positive.

Negatives

Defensively, the team was awful. Offensively, nobody seemed to shoot the ball well. Rebounding, the Raps got hammered. The Raptors just did not seem hungry enough to win this one.

Raptors @ Suns, L 106-114

Positives

For most of the game, the Raps played well and controlled the tempo of the game. The offense was very balanced and DeMar DeRozan was solid scoring the basketball as well as rebounding it.

Negatives

The Raps just had a late, fourth quarter collapse defensively and gave the game away. Tank nation fans must have been ecstatic after this one.

Raptors @ Warriors, L 100-138

Positives

Ed Davis came up with a double double. That’s all I got.

Negatives

Here comes the essay. You can’t allow 84 first half points and expect to have a chance to win. Ever. Sure, Golden state was playing their tempo, and was running an offensive en-slaughter, but if you can’t match them, take a time-out and fix it. Jay Triano really did not use good judgment of taking time-outs in this one, and the Warriors just laughed at the Raptors all the way through this one.

Raptors @ Clippers, L 90-94

Positives

This was a much better effort by the Raps. On a back to back, without their best player, the Raps could taste the win, but at the end of the game just flat out blew it. Ed Davis was great as a starter, and recorded another double double of 21-11. Davis is really showing his potential when given minutes, and should only get better.

Negatives

Just another late collapse by the team. Everything was going right. Defensively, the Raps were solid and held the Clips under 100 points, and for most of the game, the offense wasn’t bad considering Andrea Bargnani was out. If you can’t close out games, you won’t win many.

Overall, this was a pretty awful week for the team, and the late collapses bring up the question whether they are trying to lose or not. They very well could be considering the fact that they are mathematically eliminated, but Jay Triano isn’t the type of coach that would encourage this.

Ask Sachin

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If you want to have your question answered in the next Raptors Report, please leave a comment below. Thanks.

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Toronto Maple Leafs Keep Pace in the Eastern Conference, Remain Five Points Out

2011-03-23T11:20:00.002-04:00

This article is by Eric Warren. Eric is also a frequent contributer to Bleacher Report.

"Optimus Reim" is the primary reason that the Leafs are still in the hunt

The Toronto Maple Leafs, after a win in Minnesota last night, still find themselves five points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and while time is growing short with only eight games left for the team in the regular season, they aren't out of it yet.

The New Jersey Devils and Atlanta Thrashers are doing their part to help the Leafs. It appears, however, that the Sabres and Hurricanes simply refuse to lose.

For the Leafs to get into the postseason, they pretty much have to win out and hope for a little help. If the Leafs do in fact win out, the Sabres would have to lose four games of their remaining nine for the Leafs to pass them into eighth place.

The Sabres' magic number to eliminate the Toronto Maple Leafs from postseason contention is 5.5, which equals 11pts, so if Buffalo gets 11 points (92 total points), the Leafs are done, even if they win out and finish with 92 points, as I believe the Sabres own the tiebreakers.

The question is, of course, can the Leafs win all eight of their remaining games? Yes.

According to a recent article right here on Bleacher Report, there is reason to be happy about the Leafs' remaining schedule, as they play five of their remaining eight games on the road.

In the Leafs last 10 road games, they are 7-2-2 and have outscored their opposition 25-22.

While it is no surprise that some fans are quick to point out that if not for the mostly excellent play of rookie goaltender James Reimer the Leafs would be nowhere close to where they are now, it is worth noting that more goalies carry their team than players at any other position.

Just ask former Montreal Canadiens goaltender Jaro Halak.

The Leafs recently announced the signing of Tyler Brenner. Brenner is a 22-year-old winger who, until recently, was playing with the RIT (Rochester Institute of Technology) Tigers, where he led the team in goals with 26 and had 41 points in 37 games.

Brenner is a winger who has also played defense, and in terms of comparison to a current Leafs player, he has Kullemin-type potential.

According to various scouting reports, including this one, Brenner, at 6'2'', not only has decent size, but also plays the kind of all-around game that is sought after by most NHL teams.

Brenner, who signed a two-year, entry-level deal, will report to the Marlies for the rest of this season.

2011 Blue Jays Preview: Will Aaron Hill and Adam Lind Bounce-Back?

2011-03-20T11:49:00.002-04:00

REUTERS/Mike Cassese

To a degree.

Hill and Lind both had seasons in 2010 that were as strange as they were putrid. Aaron Hill managed a historic .196 BABIP, while Adam Lind countered with the most futile left-handed split in recent memory (.117/.159/.182, .341 OPS).

Some think we can just write off those seasons, as the statistics don't make any sense, and expect Lind and Hill to fully return to 2009 numbers. Hill's BB and K numbers were normal and Adam Lind's peripherals were close to his career norms after all, right?

But those numbers don't tell the whole story. After the 2009 season, I feared Aaron Hill would get too homer-heavy and try to yank everything out of the ballpark following his huge season (I'm worried about Jose Bautista for the same reason), and his 2010 line-drive and fly-ball rates back up my fears.

Aaron Hill's LD% plummeted from 19.6 to 10.6, while his FB% rose to 54.2 from 41.0. If you prorate the 26 homers in 2010 to fill his incredible 734 plate appearances from 2009, you get 32.9. In short, the rate of which Aaron Hill hit home runs remained pretty much constant.

Meanwhile, his batting average (and pretty much any other non-home run stat) took a dive with the rapid decline in line drive percentage. While makes a ton of sense: he just didn't make good contact at anywhere near a respectable rate.

So what should we expect from Aaron Hill in 2011? Somewhere in between the 2009 and 2010. Hill has been injured for the entirety of the Grapefruit League season thus far, but I expect him to be more patient at the plate and try to get back to the batting strategy that he implemented so effectively in 2009.

As far as Adam Lind goes, it's all about hitting lefties. While he didn't hit righties quite as well in 2010 as he did in 2009 (.829 OPS to .991), he didn't exactly hit poorly against them.

So will Lind get past his southpaw woes? To a degree of course, it would be downright absurd to expect his .341 OPS to continue. I believe Lind will manage a .700 OPS in 2011. While I don't like using anecdotes or small sample sizes to predict future performance, it's hard not to think that the sheer talent of lefties in the AL East had to do with Lind's poor performance in 2010.

It seemed when Jays would face the Rays, Randy Choate would come in to retire Lind once in every game (exact number: 11/18 games between the two clubs did Choate come in to pitch to Lind.). Choate wasn't the only lefty-killer in the AL East. Between CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, David Price and others, it's clear that Lind's at-bats against lefties aren't the same as, say, a left-handed batter in the NL West.

To conclude, there's no real way to dissect Adam Lind's 2010 splits to denote him being lucky or unlucky, or as a harbinger of future performance. It's just tough to expect it to continue to such a degree, as denote by his splits in 2009 and 2008.

BTTN 2011 Projections
Hill: .268/.325/.450, 27 HR, 3.3 WAR
Lind:.271/.332/.465, 26 HR, 2.8 WAR

If you're interested in seeing another topic discussed as part of BTTN's 2011 Blue Jays preview, please leave a comment!

NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs Colby Armstrong Out for Season, Giguere to Start

2011-03-15T19:38:00.000-04:00

This article is by Eric Warren. Eric is also a frequent contributer to Bleacher Report.

James Reimer had an off night, to say the least, against the Lightning. After being arguably the biggest reason that the Toronto Maple Leafs are in a playoff race at all for the better part of two months, "Optimus Reim" has every right to be tired.

Just don't tell him that.

When asked if his fatigue was an issue while giving up five goals in just 29 shots, Reimer said that although he could use fatigue as an excuse, he won't. "Even if that was the case," Reimer said, "I'm a professional athlete and you have to find ways to stay focused and keep your head in the game and keep your body at a competitive level.''

In 24 starts this season, Reimer is 13-7-4 with a goals-against average of 2.68 and a save percentage of .918. To put that into perspective, if Reimer had been the starting net minder for the Leafs this season, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that he would already have 30 plus wins.

While Reimer wouldn't make his exit until the 8:47 mark of the third period, Colby Armstrong took a wrist shot off of the toe of his skate around the midway point of the second period and broke his foot.

Armstrong's overall tenacity will be sorrily missed by the team as it tries to make its way to the postseason for the first time since the lockout.

Ron Wilson said that Matt Lashoff was on his way up from the Marlies to add some defensive depth and hopefully shore up the defense in the 5-6 spots. Lashoff, however, needs to clear waivers in order to join the Leafs, a risky proposition for a decent defenseman this time of year—especially when the Canucks may be short a D-man after their game last night against the Wild.

The Leafs are 3-1-1 when their captain scores but have been unable to score in the first period a remarkable 36 times this season.*

The arrival of Lashoff will be timely in that it will allow the Leafs to move Lebda to a fourth-line forward position and negate the need for another call-up while the Marlies are in a playoff race of their own.

The Leafs face the Carolina Hurricanes Wednesday night in what is, as all games will be from now until the end of the season, another must win.

*I was unable to verify this number; it was heard during the AM640 Radio broadcast of last nights loss to the Lightning.

2011 Blue Jays Preview: Will Brandon Morrow Ascend to 'Ace' Status in 2011?

2011-03-12T12:48:00.001-05:00

This article is the first in a series of individual player outlooks for the 2011 MLB season.

After losing Vernon Wells and Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays fans aplenty began writing off Toronto's 2011 season. Add in the fact that Jose Bautista is due for some sort of decline... and suddenly it's difficult to imagine the Blue Jays winning more than 83 or 84 games.

Yet I believe the team will better their 2010 record. Not only will Adam Lind and Aaron Hill surely improve to closer to their career norms, (I mean, they were both among the unluckiest players in the Majors last year) but the rotation is likely to overcome the loss of Shaun Marcum as Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil look to keep getting better, and of course, Brandon Morrow could have the ace-like season everyone expects of him. Brandon Morrow looks to be the unheralded key to the Blue Jays 2011 campaign.

And I believe Brandon Morrow will have that type of year. For starters, his 3.16 FIP was among baseball's best in 2010, and that was even with an incredibly poor start to the season.

If Morrow simply pitches as well in 2011 as he did from May 31st onwards in 2010, we have a Cy Young candidate on our hands, unquestionably.

Everything in his 2010 statistics point to him being just as unlucky as Adam Lind and Aaron Hill were. His 69% strand rate and .342 BABIP are both well off his career averages, and unlucky for any pitcher regardless of past performance.

Another question with Morrow is, will the Toronto Blue Jays shut him down once again, citing an innings cap? Many sources are pointing to a 175-innings limit, but I tend to think he won't get shut down. Morrow turns 27 in July, and if he comes into September with a sub-3.40, it's probably best for his development to allow him to continue shutting down offenses.

The Verducci Effect applies specifically for pitchers 25-and-under, so I wouldn't be worried in the slightest if Morrow hits the 200-inning threshold.

So there you go, pending a complete collapse/injury, there's no reason to believe Brandon Morrow will fall off the map. He has the stuff, has the promising track record, and in is an atmosphere for him to thrive.

Blue Jays Sign Francisco Tejada Out of Dominican; My Take on Upcoming CBA Talking Points

2011-03-08T20:24:00.002-05:00

Today, the Blue Jays announced they have signed 17-year old oufielder Francisco Tejada for $150K out of the Dominican Republic. Nobody knows anything about him, other than that he supposedly possesses a high ceiling.

Which is great. And it reminds me that these international signings may not be possible just a year from now.

There are a lot of pressing issues that surround talks about the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement, and none more than the idea of a worldwide draft (and please refrain from referring to it as an 'international' draft, we already have one of those).

On the surface, it looks like a dandy plan. All of the inhumane practices currently done by MLB teams to heavily recruit Latin America, and the chaotic structure would be abolished. All teams would have a fair shake at the top latin prospects, not just the teams with enough money to build enormous academies and pay their toolsy students mounds of dough.

But just look as what happened in Puerto Rico. In 1990, the commonwealth to America was added to the Rule 4 Draft (amateur draft), and the nation hasn't enjoyed the giant baseball boom that many other latin states have in the past 10 years. The amount of baseball players from Puerto Rico has actually fallen.

It's all due to one simple reason: The hotshot latino baseball players are in fact trained by Major League Baseball teams before they are signed by those franchises.

Plus, many other people along the way aid these players, expecting to get a chunk of the signing bonus the player recieves after signing. Take away the incentive to train these players to what they become when signed, and what do you think happens? They don't reach their full potential, it's that simple.

A worldwide draft would certainly be the fairest way to do business and would fit in well with the other ways MLB attempts to regulate the playing field. But the level of baseball played by these Latin America prospects would be greatly diminished and in turn, they would get picked much later in the draft.

It's not all genetics, these players need to be nurtured in their teens by high-level instructors to turn into solid major leaguers. And a worldwide draft would fail to accomplish this vital task.

Hard-Slotting System

Another issue is the draft slotting system. A hard-slotting system would allow Major League Baseball to manage signing bonus inflation as well as leveling the playing field. No longer would players drop full rounds due to signability concerns, or teams be forced to not select the best player available with the number one selection.

An additional benefit to this type of system is that top draftees would be on the field days after being drafting, not holding out until August to get every last dollar. Their signing bonus would have been decided the exact second after they were selected.

And if you're going to implement a worldwide draft, it's almost a necessity to enable a hard-slotting system. Latin American 17-year olds can't threaten to go to college if they don't get their way with a team.

I'm certainly fine with a hard-slotting system, and think it would be best for baseball.

Free Agent Compensation

The third main discussion point regarding the Rule 4 Draft is compensation picks, which are built upon free agent rankings. The formulas just don't make sense and routinely are players punished for ranking in the 'A' category of the Elias lists. Yes, athletes must take a hit for being good baseball players.

And this is where I'm going to illustrate my own plan and deviate from just commenting on speculation.

I believe that free agent rankings should be built on a restructured form of Wins Above Replacement. Take away the controversial defensive metric the statistic uses (UZR, which I'm comfortable using, but hasn't gained widespread agreeance as a legitimate metric), and replace it with a set grading that reflects the defensive spectrum.

Give catchers and shortstops a 15 that replaces their UZR, as they playing difficult defensive positions and penalize players that player easy positions (Say, give designated hitters a -15, and then space out all the other positions between these extremes).

This seems like a basic enough strategy, but apparently not as Major League Baseball currently lumps outfielders, first basemen and designated hitters together to distinguish between defensive value. Does Franklin Gutierrez really provide the same defensive value as Vladimir Guerrero? I think not.

Then, use this scale to determine a player's free agent ranking (I'll explain what exactly I would make each ranking level mean later on):

If player qualifies for first requirement of ranking but not second, they would slot into the ranking level below them.

6+ WAR and 4+ previous season: Type A
4-6 WAR and 3+ previous season: Type B
2-4 WAR and 2+ previous season: Type C
Any other free agent: unranked

Teams that sign Type A free agents must sacrifice their first round selection from the upcoming draft and the team the player is signed from receives a compensation round pick between the first and second rounds of the draft.

Teams that sign Type B free agents must sacrifice their second round selection from the upcoming draft, and the team the player is signed from receives a compensation round selection between the first and second rounds of the upcoming draft.

Teams that sign Type C free agents must not give up anything, but the team the player is signed off of receives a compensation round selection between the first and second rounds of the upcoming draft. Exact WAR for the platform year is used to determine the order of the compensation round (descending from highest in category).

The system I have proposed would certainly serve its purpose (that is, rank the best players highest), and rid ourselves of the outdated formulas MLB currently uses. Sure, as a Toronto Blue Jays fan, I am pleased with the plethora of picks the Blue Jays have been given in recent years due to exploiting the strange amount of value the system gives to middle relievers., but as someone generally interested in the well-being of Major League Baseball, it just doesn't make sense.

And it's not fair to the players either, especially those that have to wait around until April to get a job because they were the worst-of-the-best free agents.

Major League Baseball will put some drastic changes in place when they meet with the MLBPA to write up a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, of which the current version expires in December of this year. These three concepts are likely just the beginning.

Toronto Raptors Report Week 18: The Raps Pull a Dud on National TV

2011-03-07T19:56:00.000-05:00

In perhaps one of the most anticipated games of the season, the Raptors couldn't pull out a win in London, England vs. the New Jersey Nets in the only two games nationally broadcasted for the Raptors.

Will Andrea Bargnani ever improve his rebound rate
to become a dependable 20-10 player?

This certainly won't help the American stereotype of the Raptors as a crappy, bottom feeding team who is in the same boat as the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Another point I will bring up is Andrea Bargnani's rebounding issues. Bargnani was recently interviewed by an Italian television station and was asked about his rebounding woes. Guess what he said.

"I play basketball, not rebound-ball."

Wow. Great attitude, Andrea. That's certainly the way to improve your rebounding. Bargnani also went on about how he's sometimes lazy and focuses more on offense.

This isn't news to us as Raptor fans, but it's of even more significance now that the matter is coming from the horse's mouth.
If Bargnani really wants to reach stardom and be considered a viable piece to build around, he will have to work at both ends of the court.
Onto the report:

Record: 1-2
Performance on a scale of 1-10: 7

Here is a recap of the three games:

Raptors vs Hornets, W 96-90

Positives
Jose, Jose, Jose! Really, Jose Calderon was terrific. He outplayed Chris Paul and was four rebounds shy of a triple-double with the statline of 22-16-6. His defense also was solid this game. DeMar DeRozan and James Johnson both put up a decent performance, and the defense unit was also pretty good.
Negatives
Andrea Bargnani was relatively quiet, which is often the case when he doesn't get his touches for a given period of time in the game.

Raptors @ Nets, O2 Arena, L 103-116

Positives

Both teams seemed excited coming into the game, given the O2 arena and all, and it was a fairly close game until the fourth quarter. DeMar DeRozan was fantastic, finishing with 30 points, and he played with great determination in comparison to the rest of the team.

Negatives
The defense was atrocious, especially in the fourth quarter. For a team with only two games on national TV the whole season, it didn't seem like the Raps really wanted to give the NBA a great impression.

Raptors @ Nets, O2 Arena, L 136-137, 3 OT

Positives

Wow, both teams put on a show in London. Going into triple overtime, both teams played extremely hard and this was heartbreaking for the Raps. Andrea Bargnani were both incredible, with 35 and 30 points respectively.

Negatives

In the clutch, the Raps just weren't good enough. The Raps had many chances to win the game, and they couldn't capitalize. Deron Williams roasted the Raps and finish with 21 points and 18 assists.

Toronto Maple Leafs Looking Like Playoff Contenders Down the Stretch

2011-03-05T11:44:00.001-05:00

This article is by Eric Warren. Eric is also a frequent contributer to Bleacher Report.

The Toronto Maple Leafs climbed to within three points of the eighth-seeded Carolina Hurricanes and within one point of the ninth-seeded Buffalo Sabres with an impressive win over the Philadelphia Flyers in Philadelphia last night.

A lot is being said of the Leafs' current success that has seen them go a combined 16-8-5 since the turn of the year and a run of 6-1-3 in their last 10 games.

One of the biggest secrets to the team's success as of late has to be the emergence of Phil Kessel. The Leafs forward has exhibited a great deal of "truculence" in regard to his style of play than he has at almost any time in his career to date.

He's even throwing the odd check.

Phil Kessel isn't the only one contributing, though. Nikolai Kullemin, who is arguably one the most complete players in the league right now, is contributing on a regular basis and has five points in his last five games.

Though he has only scored three goals in the last ten games, Mikhail Grabovski has also scored five points in the last five games.

Clarke MacArthur, who despite having a bit of a scoring slump as well, has chipped in with four points in the last five games. Even Dion Phaneuf, who had spent the better part of the season trying really hard to find his game, has shown glimpses of the potential that Leafs fans and management were hoping for by netting two goals and five points in the last five games.

Other players who are suddenly in the mix offensively include Tyler Bozak and Colby "The Cheese" Armstrong—each with four points in the last five games.

Tyler Bozak, who is often maligned due to his lack of offense, has regained his early season form in the face off circle, and is tied for sixth in the league among centers who have played a similar amount of games with a 54.6 percent success rate.

Add the fact that Ron Wilson has started to use him somewhat on the penalty kill, and Bozak's lack of offense doesn't seem so bad (although, in his NHL career, he earns a respectable point every two games).

Then, of course, there is the goaltending of James "Optimus Reim" Reimer.

With 17 games left, the safe assumption is that Reimer will get the bulk of the starts. It isn't a stretch to say that if the team continues at the pace they are on, Reimer will get 20-plus wins. Given that his first start was the team's 33rd game of the season, that's pretty spectacular.

It is true that the Toronto Maple Leafs are still on the outside looking in; however, winning is contagious.

Brian Burke recently expressed concern about making it to the postseason just to "get your ass kicked in the first round." If the postseason started tomorrow with the Leafs in, I wouldn't count them out against anyone.

Toronto Maple Leafs in the Eye of a 'Hurricane' As They Host Pittsburgh Penguins

2011-03-01T17:56:00.002-05:00

This article is by Eric Warren. Eric is also a frequent contributer to Bleacher Report.

After a flurry of moves in the past couple weeks, do
the Maple Leafs have the firepower to keep winning?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL since the All-Star break, and while they aren't in the New Jersey category in the last 10 games of nine wins and one loss, going 5-1-4 is pretty good too.

All of the negativity surrounding the Leafs seems to have evaporated. No one thinks Phil Kessel is a bum, the calls for Ron Wilson's head are little more than a distant memory and Brian Burke is once again firmly ensconced in the upper echelon of NHL general managers and appears to have known what he was doing all along.

It's true—winning cures everything.
The injury-riddled Pittsburgh Penguins roll into the ACC to face the surging Leafs tomorrow night and should be easy fodder for the boys in blue, but if we've learned anything from the 6-5 shootout loss over the weekend at the hands of these very same Penguins, this team is not without ability just because Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin aren't playing.

The Carolina Hurricanes—who remain four points up on the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Atlanta Thrashers for the eighth and final playoff seed in the Eastern Conference, remember—will certainly be watching the Leafs as they climb closer in the standings.

The Hurricanes know full well what this young Toronto Maple Leafs team is capable of, and though they have been inconsistent on some occasions, the convincing 3-0 win that the Leafs posted against the 'Canes early in February will not be forgotten when the teams meet again in a couple of weeks.

This is currently a team on the rise, though people will say that they do this type of thing every year.In light of Brian Burke's lack of activity yesterday at the trade deadline, the Toronto Maple Leafs as constructed hold their own fate in their hands. Burke stated last week that he didn't want to make a move that would vault his team into the playoffs only to "get their asses kicked in the first round," but if last year's playoffs were any indication of what can happen in the postseason, there is no reason to believe that would happen anyway.

The Leafs still have some work to do. Though Kessel is on a hot streak as of late, he seems to be the only one. The Leafs have got to find some way to be consistent in the offensive zone if they have any hope of making it to the postseason, and rookie netminder James Reimer has at times recently appeared a little more human than superhuman.

That in and of itself is a disturbing trend.

Nevertheless, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a good team. They are still three players and some luck away from being considered any kind of real threat for the most part, but they are a good team with a brighter future than they've had in a very long time.

Grapefruit League Action Begins! What To Look for In Toronto Blue Jays Spring Training

2011-02-26T14:59:00.004-05:00

Sure, it has been a week or so since most of the Blue Jays players first arrived for workouts in Florida, but today is the first day of their Grapefruit League schedule.

Can Jesse Litsch re-find the success he enjoyed in 2008?

The Jays are busy taking on the Detroit Tigers in Dunedin (started at 1:05 pm), and there are certainly tons of storylines to look out for. I believe most of the games are only available on the Fan590, so break out and tune your radios (games not available streamed online, but there are various ways to get around that).

Here are five things to look out for in Toronto Blue Jays Spring Training:

1. Fifth Starter
Jesse Litsch has been rumoured have fully overcome his arm speed woes. After struggling through most of 2010 (in the time he wasn't injured), Litsch apparently is now rested enough to throw with his full strength.

But will it be enough to overcome Marc Rzepczynski? Rzepczynski has really bounced between the majors and minors a lot for the past two seasons, so the Blue Jays are certainly confused about what his future bears.

I like Marc Rzepczynski in this battle. In 2010, he got extremely unlucky, and nothing more than his .342 BABIP illustrates that. This won't continue, and it's likely that neither will his 1.13 HR/9. He was historically good at preventing homers in the minors, so I'm predicting some regression to the mean, as well as natural progress for the left-handed pitcher.

However, there are certainly dark horses in this competition. Scott Richmond can't be forgotten, as he is fully healthy and earlier today pitched well in a 'B' game. Robert Ray, Brad Mills, and perhaps even former all-world prospect Dustin McGowan figure also be in the equation.

2. Closer
While I routinely discount the notion that only one person must pile up all save opportunities, the Jays will surely use this type of closer and thus finding the exact man to do the honours is important. Returning arms David Purcey, Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp are both not expected to be in the race to close, but newcomers Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, and apparent favourite Frank Francisco should all be very much in it.

First things first, it shouldn't be Dotel. A closer should be able to annihilate both-sided batters and Octavio Dotel is pretty much the Adam Lind of pitchers. He can't get lefties out at all and therefore is much better suited to share a set-up role.

Francisco and Rauch are therefore the two pitchers I'd be comfortable with closing and frankly, I don't have a favourite of the two. What doesn't get touted enough is Francisco's xFIP of 3.31, which was far superior to his 3.76 ERA and I suppose adequate for a closer.

3. Bench Speed
Darin Mastroianni deserves a prolonged look in Spring Training for a major league bench spot. He did nothing but rake last year in the Eastern League (617 PA), putting up fantastic lead-off hitter numbers: .301/.390/.398 with 42 SB. Plus, he's supposedly a good defender in centerfield.

Now, the problem is that the Jays already have two players very similar to Mastroianni: Rajai Davis and Scott Podsednik. However, with Podsednik's recent injury and Rajai Davis's struggles against righties, Mastroianni could get his big chance. But regardless, he may force the Blue Jays hand if he starts in AAA and continues to rake.

4. Prospect Development
Spring Training is unique in that notable prospects get to spend time with the Major League coaches and get fantastic instruction along the way. There are lots of storylines prospect-wise, such as Brett Lawrie's pursuit to make the Blue Jays out of Spring Training, and whether or not he works hard to improve his defense at third base.

As well, Kyle Drabek has already been largely penciled in for a fourth rotation spot, but but that could all go down the drain with a terrible Spring Training.

5. Adam Lind's Defense
The Blue Jays seem committed to giving Adam Lind the full-time first base job, so many eyes will be on the former outfielder turned DH as he patrols infield. Yes, articles have been written recently about how in team workouts he seems comfortable and brisk at first base... but let's watch the games and see for ourselves.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Brian Burke Is Done Selling, Looking for Defense?

2011-02-22T12:12:00.000-05:00

This article is by Eric Warren. Eric is also a frequent contributer to Bleacher Report.

According to an article yesterday by Globe Sports.com columnist James Mirtle, Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke is done selling, but that doesn't mean he's done dealing.

The Leafs GM is looking for help on the blue line.

Just days after dealing long-time Leaf defenseman Tomas Kaberle to the Boston Bruins for their first-round pick in this year's draft, a prospect and a conditional second rounder, Brian Burke has stated publicly that he is looking for a defenseman.

Confused?

The absence of Kaberle created a hole on the blue line, and a hole not easily filled at that. The common opinion, however, was that rookie defenseman Carl Gunnarsson, who had shown the potential to be a Kaberle-type defenseman not so long ago, would be able to fill that void. Perhaps not as soon as this season but possibly next season.

In his recent dealings, Burke has picked up two first-round picks and two highly touted prospects, one of which is a top-tier defensive prospect.
Before the acquisition of Jake Gardiner, the Toronto Maple Leafs already had a relatively deep stable of defensive prospects, including Jesse Blacker, Simon Gysbers, Juraj Mikus and Danny Richmond. They also have veteran defenseman Jeff Finger and youngster Matt Lashoff, who has already seen limited ice time in the NHL.

Most people would argue that Jeff Finger was sent down for a reason and they'd be right to a degree. If all Burke is looking for, however, is to put a little experience on the back end for the rest of the season, Jeff Finger could fit the bill.

With the Leafs only seven points out of a playoff spot and suddenly in the hunt, Brian Burke may be tempted to sell the farm for a push into the postseason.

Agree or disagree, Brian Burke has done well with this club given what he had to work with when he arrived.

The Toronto Maple Leafs could make it to the postseason as is. With Colby Armstrong and Mike Brown set to return against the Islanders, the Leafs should get that shot in the arm that they were missing against Ottawa over the weekend.

The end of this evening's action could find the Toronto Maple Leafs only five points out and make the temptation to try another move almost unbearable for Burke given that it's been awhile since his club has made the postseason, but it won't make any sense if he loses what got him this far to begin with.

NBA All Star Weekend: DeMar DeRozan Robbed Once Again of Dunk Contest Title

2011-02-21T18:38:00.001-05:00

DeMar DeRozan tweeted "No more dunk contests for me unless it's in Toronto!" after last nights affairs and rightfully so. If I were DeMar and they asked me to dunk next year, I would hastily tell them off.

The dunk contest has become a popularity contest, and it served no justice for the raw talent of dunks that DeRozan performed at the Staples Center.

Blake Griffin and Javale McGee edged Serge Ibaka and DeMar DeRozan in the first round, and Griffin ended up beating McGee in the finals as you could have guessed.

Now, there are a few things I would like to address. For starters, there was no way Griffin deserved to be in that final. Now hey, I'm not jumping to any conclusions that the judges were bias or anything, but the fact that Griffin edged DeRozan by a mere one point puzzles me.

Now I won't lie, Griffin's first dunk was impressive and got the score that it deserved.

Click here for Griffin's first dunk.

Griffin's second dunk was a windmill slam off an alley oop from Baron Davis, and it took him seven tries. Seven. It's also been done before, but it was nothing special. Yet somehow, he gets a 46.

Click here for Griffin's second dunk.

DeRozan's first dunk was similar, except he went between his legs which is much more difficult and much more impressive, yet the judges leave him hanging at a 44.

Click here for DeRozan's first dunk.

DeRozan's second dunk was easily the dunk of the night, and this was legitimately the only deserving dunk of a 50. It was on his first try, it was pure athleticism and it just awed the crowed.

Click here for DeRozan's second dunk.

Let's be honest here, the judges already saved a seat for Griffin in the finals. We all know it. He plays for the L.A Clippers, and the contest is in L.A.; the whole NBA is kneeling for Griffin, and it just wouldn't look right if the most-hyped player since LeBron James didn't make the finals.

JaVale McGee was deserving of that final spot. The dunks he had were creative, took skill and were worthy of a finals appearance.

Click here for McGee's first dunk.

His second dunk wasn't as great but was still good enough to get him to the finals. Did it deserve the mark it got? Maybe not, but he earned his spot fair and square.

Click here for McGee's second dunk.

Serge Ibaka had an impressive first dunk, but his second dunk wasn't good enough to get him into the finals.

Click here for Ibaka's first dunk.

Click here for Ibaka's second dunk.

Back to DeRozan and Griffin now. This has to be frustrating for DeRozan to be robbed two years in a row—both by a single percent to Nate Robinson of last year's finals and a point to Blake Griffin in this year's first round.

The fact that Griffin hired a choir to set up his winning dunk really says something, considering he only jumped over the front hood of the car anyway. It's pathetic that such an awful dunk can win you a dunk contest, but what can you do?

Well, DeMar is from a bad area of Compton, so he should be used to getting robbed anyway. And being a part of the Raptors in a contest run by Americans, why would that change?

BTTN 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Guide

2011-02-19T18:27:00.002-05:00

If you have the #1 pick you're taking Albert Pujols.
But in an auction draft spending $40 on a guy that plays
an obscenely deep position isn't good use of your cash.

Yes baseball fans, it's that time of year again. Spring Training workouts have already begun and later this month both Cactus and Grapefruit League action will commence. Similarly, baseball fanatics spend Spring Training (some traditionalists even draft a week after Opening Day) studying up for the fantasy season.

To guide you through your fantasy draft, we at BTTN have assembled our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Guide. On Wednesday, our Top 200 player rankings were released, which can be found here.

Type of Draft

Does your league just draft players out of a pre-determined order, or is it an auction? I'd recommend the auction-format, it's way more fun and frankly, more just. Every owner has a chance at every player. It's basic supply & demand fundamentals. That said, most of these strategies/things to look out apply for any type of draft.

Don't Discount Utility Positions (CI, MI, UTIL)

It's kind of odd. Most fantasy drafters fill out their infield, get their outfield set-up, and then select six or seven pitchers before turning their attention to the utility positions. They're there, so utilize them.

I always make sure that I get two Top 12 first basemen (I really like a Fielder/Dunn combo, which can cost the same as what Albert Pujols would) so I can slot one of them into the corner infield position, and then I usually take a Gaby Sanchez-type player for three or four bucks who can give me a solid .275/25/90 line at the UTIL position. Everyone knows that first base is extremely deep... so why not milk it to its full potential?

Don’t Get Caught Up With Batting Average

Batting average is only one category, so don’t continually sacrifice other categories in an attempt to only draft players with high averages. Keep it in the back of your mind, but drafting Albert Pujols ahead of Ryan Howard isn’t going to make a big difference in the big picture, considering you’ll be starting around 12 other players along with your top first baseman. Maybe that earns you an extra half of a rotisserie point at the end of year, but that’s not worth the difference of three rounds, or $15-20.

Stockpile Mid-Tier Starters

Front-end starting pitching is historically deep this year, and pushes guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Latos, Justin Verlander, Chris Carpenter, and Josh Johnson out of the top 10. None of these guys will go for more than $18 in an auction, while top-tiers stars such as Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez can fetch $30.

So capitalize on it. Draft four or five of these $15 pitchers. The exact players I never let out of my grasp of this cluster are Jered Weaver, who is a lock for 200 SO and great stats elsewhere, and Josh Johnson, who was just outstanding before getting injured and with 200 IP should easily provide 16+ wins, 200+ SO, a sub-1.20 WHIP and a sub-3.00 ERA, yet nobody acknowledges him as even a top ten pitcher.

Punt A Category (Or Two!)

A popular strategy utilized by fantasy players is to forfeit one category in an attempt to score more points in other categories. For example, forfeiting batting average by selecting Adam Dunn-type players would score you a one or two in average, but give you a leg up in other batting stats, as well as saving you cash (or from spending high draft picks on high-average players).

If you're punting Wins and SOs, you'll need to know
about lock-down middle relievers such as Mike Adams

A more extreme punting strategy would be spending the minimum on pitching and only pay for position players until the very end of the draft. Then, just stock up on low-end closers and sub-3.00 ERA middle relievers. This is a very viable strategy that will likely win you the SV, ERA and WHIP titles while finishing last in Wins and SO.

This would earn you an above-average overall standing pitching-wise, yet you sacrificed almost no resources… while destroying your league in every batting category. However, you should first check your league rules to make sure the innings limit is low enough to allow it.

Position Scarcity

I personally always aim to to draft one of the top two shortstops: Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. Hanley probably has a bit more value overall, but Tulowitzki has perhaps more power potential and will get you more RBIs to go along with his relative injury risk. But here's the important thing when considering buying a top shortstop: always buy the first shortstop of the two that goes up for auction, as people will panic and vastly overpay for the second one.

This has happened in countless mock (and real) drafts our experts have participated in. Hanley Ramirez will go for $34-39, people will panic, and then Tulowitzki will get drafted at a lofty $40-46, or the other way around.

Another position scarcity note is that second base is actually surprisingly deep this year. Try to avoid paying $30 to select the Robinson Canos and Chase Utleys of the world, and instead wait a while get Kelly Johnson or Martin Prado for pocket change.

However, there is a sentiment in the fantasy community that position scarcity is over-hyped. Is a Tulowitzki/Torii Hunter combo really going to outplay a Ryan Braun/Rafael Furcal combination? No, it's about a wash... but there really aren't any guarantees with players after the top two shortstops, while outfielders in the 90-120 range are pretty trust-worthy despite their lack of superstar status.

Identify the Players You Need to Draft

Like the previous tip, this one doesn't seem to need explanation. But it does. Don't just go off of 'expert' rankings, such as this one, or ESPN's on MLB Network's, or CBS's or Yahoo's. Make a list of your personal rankings and make note of the players you won't leave the draft room without.

I've personally had trouble fully understanding this rule in the past, such as last year when I was huge on both Robinson Cano and Ubaldo Jimenez. In my primary league, I didn't end up with either of them because I was drafting so closely with an 'experts' ranking list. This year, I'm super-high on Jay Bruce and Matt Wieters, and so I'm be drafting them where I believe they are worth, not based on where people think I should take them.

If you're in an auction and fellow owners are spending
obscene amounts of money early on, don't hesistate to
overdraft a star like Evan Longoria for $35+

Keep up with the Market (Auction Drafts)

I’ve been in auction drafts in which three or four people jack up the prices and attempt to each take four or five of the top twenty players by throwing around $45+ bids at numerous players. You have to keep up with them, even if that means going way over your pre-draft spending limits.

Otherwise you’ll be stuck with middling stars and finish the draft with loads of cash left. Yes, you can still go bargain hunting after the market explosion, but make sure to get your share of high-end talent (two top 20 players).

Balance Potential and Certainty
Drafting money-in-the-bank players is important to any type of draft or scoring system. And no, this isn't as obvious as one would think. Yes, I advise taking big-upside guys whenever you can, but make sure you draft the sure-things as well.

Prime examples: Any top five first baseman, Brandon Phillips will give you 20/20 production guaranteed, Kevin Youkilis can be had pretty late yet is ultra-reliable, Nick Markakis and Torii Hunter are solid 3rd and 4th OF types that will without question give you quality ABs, yet without the breakout-quotient involved with fellow mid-rounders Grady Sizemore and Carlos Quentin.

That's it for our Draft Strategy Guide! Just remember this important tip: It's your draft. Sure, you can prepare religiously and read everything you can, but you need to formulate your own master plan and be flexible if things don't turn out perfectly. Have fun!