What's up, Ukraine?

The Miraculous Healing. Government is to declare the conclusion of flu epidemic in Ukraine, but what will be the next ‘red herring’ for the nation?

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:42:00 +0000

After more than two weeks of alarmed statements of top Ukrainian officials concerning the flu expansion through all the regions of Ukraine, the tone of state evaluation of the health situation in country has changed dramatically. Now everyone, starting from functionaries of the Health Ministry and finishing with the Prime Minister herself, is talking about the end of the flu epidemic in Ukraine. Miraculous healing of the nation, isn’t it?

Tomorrow the decision on termination of quarantine state in Ukrainian schools, universities and other institutions is to be taken. Almost no one is wearing protection mask in public places. Candidates for Presidential election are vigorously preparing new multi-thousand public rallies.

The Ministry of Health went further, starting to deny the very fact that we had a noticeable amount of swine flu cases at all. Today, on 19 November 2009, First Deputy Minister of Health of Ukraine Vasyl Lazoryshynets stated that “we had performed an examination of probes of 1168 people, and in 225 cases it was proved that it is a flu virus of A/H1N1 type” (the quotation according to the UNIAN information agency). 21 from 238 fatal cases have proved to be caused by the flu of A-type, and 17 from them – by A/H1N1.

Since the start of the flu epidemic on 29 October 2009, 1 million 120 thousand of people has recovered, Mr. Lazoryshynets added. ‘The situation is stabilizing and the quantity of regions, where the epidemic threshold has not been overcome is 12’ (half of the regions of Ukraine).

Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko also informed the members of Government during today’s Cabinet sitting that there is a substantial reduction of the quantity of sick people in Ukraine. ‘Step by step we are getting out of the epidemic we had at the end of October and at the beginning of November’, she said. ‘And Government has done all it had to do’. Thanks to the Governmental actions, 7 regions of Ukraine have not reached an epidemic threshold at all, Prime Minister declared.

So, the day after tomorrow Ukraine may start to forget the word combination ‘swine flu’. What will be the next alarming phrase Ukrainians will hear the most in the speeches of top politicians? ‘Russian gas’?

World Health Organization: H1N1 has not mutated in Ukraine. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Ukraine - update 2

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 20:46:00 +0000

A copy-paste of the second issue of the World Health Organization report (just one question, which exactly vaccine are they talking about):

17 November 2009 -- Preliminary tests reveal no significant changes in the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus based on investigations of samples taken from patients in Ukraine. Analyses are being performed by two WHO influenza collaborating centres as part of the global influenza surveillance network.

Preliminary genetic sequencing shows that the virus is similar to the virus used for production of the pandemic influenza vaccine, reconfirming the vaccine's efficacy at this time.

Additional questions about the pandemic virus circulating in Ukraine will be answered as more data is available.

WHO commends the government of Ukraine for its open sharing of samples to inform global monitoring of the virus for signs of change.

A total of 34 samples were analysed independently by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Mill Hill in London, UK, and the WHO Collaborating Centre for the Surveillance, Epidemiology and Control of Influenza in Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

British scientists testing Ukrainian 'super flu' that has killed 189 people - The Daily Mail

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:47:00 +0000

A recent Ukrainian-swine-flu article from the Daily Mail.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1227984/British-scientists-testing-Ukrainian-super-flu-killed-189-people.html#ixzz0X72ZnaTu
Last updated at 10:41 PM on 15th November 2009

British scientists are examining the strain of swine flu behind a deadly Ukrainian outbreak to see if the virus has mutated. A total of 189 people have died and more than one million have been infected in the country. Some doctors have likened the symptoms to those seen in many of the victims of the Spanish flu which caused millions of deaths world-wide after the World War One.

An unnamed doctor in western Ukraine told of the alarming effects of the virus. He said: 'We have carried out post mortems on two victims and found their lungs are as black as charcoal. 'They look like they have been burned. It's terrifying.'

Neighbouring Poland has called on the EU to take action, fearing the mystery virus may spread westwards. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has written to European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and the Swedish Prime Minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt, who holds the EU presidency. The letter said: 'The character of this threat demands that rapid action be undertaken at the European Union level.' Russia, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and Romania have already launched health checks on Ukrainians entering their territory. Slovakia has closed two of five border crossings.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has called in the World Health Organisation. A team of specialists are carrying out tests in Kiev and Lviv in an effort to identify the virus. President Yushchenko said: 'People are dying. The epidemic is killing doctors. This is absolutely inconceivable in the 21st Century.' In a TV interview, the President added: 'Unlike similar epidemics in other countries, three causes of serious viral infections came together simultaneously in Ukraine: two seasonal flus and the Californian flu. 'Virologists conclude that this combination of infections may produce an even more aggressive new virus as a result of mutation.'

Four men and one woman have died from the flu in Lviv, said emergency hospital chief doctor Myron Borysevych. Two of the dead patients were in the 22-35 age group, with two others over 60. He diagnosed the disease as viral pneumonia. 'We have sent the analyses to Kiev. We don't believe it's H1N1 swine flu. Neither do we know what kind of pneumonia it is.'

Universities, schools and nurseries have been closed, public meetings have been banned and theatres shut.

The virus from the Ukraine is being tested at the Medical Research council labs in Mill Hill North London . A spokesman said: 'We do not have a time scale for the results of the tests, although some preliminary results have been obtained. I cannot tell you what they are.
'We did not have enough of the virus samples so we will have to grow some more before we can come to a conclusive decision about its nature.'

Flu epidemic has reached its peak, the Health Ministry of Ukraine informs. Meanwhile the opposition accused Yulia Tymoshenko in making money on panic.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:19:00 +0000

The flu and ARVI epidemic in Ukraine has already reached its peak, Deputy Minister of Health of Ukraine Vasyl Lazoryshynets informed at the press-briefing today. According to Deputy Minister, 54% of people who were hospitalized since 29 October have already recovered from sickness.

Talking about the swine flu, Mr. Lazoryshynets said that there were 166 documented cases of swine flu (A/H1N1) in Ukraine, and 15 of them were fatal.

Though, it is well known that very limited number of Ukrainians had an opportunity to be examined, whether they have a swine flu or not. I asked my district doctor today (while she was filling in my sick-leave certificate), how many recommendations for a swine-flu examination had she signed in our district. The answer was ‘none at all’.

‘Some private clinics are practicing such an examination’, the nurse added. According to witnesses, one of the well-known Kyiv private medical centers performed a kind of PR-action in one of the shopping plazas in Kyiv: everyone passing-by was proposed to have a free swine-flu test.

The Health Ministry of Ukraine, and Vasyl Lazoryshynets in particular, also gave an interesting peace of indormation today. To receive any kind of swine-flu diagnostics an average Ukrainian should be either severely ill (hospitalized) or/and pregnant, or dead.

Meanwhile the opposition Party of Regions started to blame the Government and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in provoking total panic around the A/H1N1 epidemic, and even in making money on that. The MP from the Party of Regions Hanna Herman, Head of the Parliamentary Committee on Freedom of Speech and Information, has stated today during the popular TV-show that the epidemic is a way for the Block of Yulia Tymoshenko to earn money on selling drugs via affiliated and ‘friendly’ companies.

‘Yulia Tymoshenko made money on drugs during the epidemic’, Hanna Herman declared.
Now the Government says the epidemic has finished. And even more – Government is supporting the Junior Eurovision Song Contest to be held this Saturday in Kyiv. That suggests the flu epidemic panic was fake, MP assumed.

High mortality rate in Ukraine is caused by a wrong antibiotic treatment? A/H1N1 epidemic update.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:15:00 +0000

With this post I would like to thank everyone who supported me during my flu-time. Thank you very much for your letters, comments and very kind words!

Now I feel much better and couldn’t stand but share with you the interview of Viktor Bachynsky, Head of the Chernivtsi Regional Bureau of the Medico-Legal Investigation. Mr Bachynsky was heading a group of medical professionals who were investigating the recent swine-flu fatal cases in Western Ukraine.

His conclusion is the following: it is not a pneumonia, but cardiopulmonary decompensation and cardiogenic shock, which causes death as a complication after the A/H1N1 virus. Simply said, the A/H1N1 virus in Ukraine is not causing pneumonia, but the toxic distress-syndrome, total lungs affection.

‘Antibiotics don’t help… One who has a strong immune system survives. One with weak immune system dies’, the medico-legal expert says. Viktor Bachynsky emphasized that high morbidity and mortality rate in Ukraine is caused not by a severe infection, but with wrong antibiotic treatment, when in lot of cases people were taking antibiotics without prescription.

Mr. Bachysnky also said that widely advertized in Ukraine Tamiflu may be useful only when is taken within first 48-72 hours.

The full Ukrainian version of the interview is here.

The Health Ministry of Ukraine informed yesterday that 1 million 308 thousands 911 Ukrainianы are sick with flu, ARVI or its coplications. 265 Ukrainians died since 29 October 2009, 26 of them – since Thursday.

Meanwhile, the WHO European Regional Office informed yesterday that the ‘initial analysis of information indicates that the numbers of severe cases do not appear to be excessive when compared to the experience of other countries and do not represent any change in the transmission or virulence of the virus’ in Ukraine.

1 million 31 thousands 596 Ukrainians plus Tetyana Vysotska. The latest statistics on flu, ARVI and their complications (like pneumonia) incidence.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:04:00 +0000

As of 9 November 2009, 1031597 Ukrainians are sick with flu, ARVI or pneumonia, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine has informed today. One of the ‘victims’ comprised in this figure is me. I’m sick starting from Friday, but called a doctor only today. So, am moved from hidden sickness cases to the official statistics.

Meanwhile, the doctor told me I’ve got ARVI with some complications with lungs. I was told it is impossible to have a test on whether it may be a swine flu. (I sincerely hope it is not). So, I’ve started to take antibiotic the doctor prescribed.

According to the Ukrainian Health Ministry, starting from 29 October 2009, 174 Ukrainians died (19 – during the last day).

871 thousand of Ukrainians are sick with flu, ARVI or pneumonia - Health Ministry of Ukraine

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:48:00 +0000

Official information of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine as of 6 November 2009: 871037 Ukrainians are sick with flu, ARVI or pneumonia. 135 died, 25 of them - has died today.

Deputy Head of Kyiv City Administration Irena Kilchytska has just informed at the TV-show I'm watching now that there are 7 proved A/H1N1 cases in the capital of Ukraine, and 2 women died.

Every second Ukrainian will be down with swine flu – Emergency Situations Ministry

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:33:00 +0000

About 60 percent of citizens of Ukraine will be sick with the swine flu. It is a prognosis of the Head of the Department of Healthcare and Medical-Biological Protection of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Ukraine Oleksiy Gromzin, expressed during the ministerial hotline today.

‘Professionals forecast a couple of waves of rise of ARVI, and also A/H1N1 incidence, because the population doesn’t have a layer with immunity to it. That’s why it is forecasted that about 60% or maybe a bit less or more, of the country population will fall sick with the swine flu.', he said

Political Flu. President of Ukraine may extend his time in office, imposing the state of emergency in Ukraine due to A/H1N1 epidemy.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:35:00 +0000

January, 17, 2010 may turn out to be just a common Sunday, nothing more. It seems possible that the day of election of the President of Ukraine will be one or even two or more months later. This situation will come true, if the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko imposes the state of emergency in Ukraine to fight swine flu more effectively.

Viktor Yushchenko made a televised appeal to Ukrainian people today. In his short speech he criticized strongly the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko, Speaker of Ukrainian Parliament Volodymyr Lytvyn and the opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych (all of them are his rivals at the presidential poll 2010) in ignoration of the information on the epidemic situation in Ukraine in October 2009.

One of the risk factors of A/H1N1 in Ukraine is epidemic, fast-moving character of spread of the infection on the West of a country, President said. ‘Government, the management of the Parliament and opposition knew that as early as at the beginning of October 2009’, Viktor Yushchenko claimed. ‘First and the most effective preventive measure is a prevention of crowds. Ignoring this principle, hundreds of thousands of people were taken to Kyiv from different regions’.

President meant the big public gatherings during the presidential nomination of his main opponents. Especially crowded was the Maydan-based nomination show of Prime Minister.

All the measures taken by Government to fight swine-flu epidemy Mr. Yushchenko qualified as ‘collapse’. ‘The main center of the decision-making shall be the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine’, he declared. ‘Non-obedience to its decisions will be followed by the immediate reaction of the law-enforcement bodies’. It looks like a first step to the transfer of all the controls to the National Security and Defense Council, experts say.

Let me remind that the President chairs the Security&Defence Council.

Among politicians accused in ignorant attitude to the killing virus the fastest appeared to be Volodymyr Lytvyn, the Chairman of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. About two hours ago he gave a following comment during a television show: ‘…all are guilty except him… President and Prime Minister were informed on the flu epidemy a couple of weeks before. Why Parliament didn’t know about that?... Because our security agencies are privatized’.

Meanwhile, we’ve got the first A/H1N1 death in the capital of Ukraine Kyiv. Kyiv City Mayor Leonid Chernovetsky has appealed to Yulia Tymoshenko today with the request to announce quarantine in Kyiv. According to the Kyiv City Administration, more than 26 thousand of Kyivites are sick with acute respiratory viral infections as of 4th November 2009. Epidemic threshold is overpassed on 14%.

86 people are killed by the flu epidemy in Ukraine (Health Ministry of Ukraine, 4/11/2009).

World Health Organization: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Ukraine - update 1

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:11:00 +0000

Sorry, have no time to comment - just a Ctrl-Copy-Ctrl-Paste of a first press release of mission of the World Health Organization, arrived to Kyiv yesterday night. (bold accents are mine)

3 November 2009 -- According to the Ministry of Health of the Ukraine, the country has now recorded more than 250,000 cases of influenza-like illness, with 235 patients requiring intensive care. As of 2 November, 70 deaths from acute respiratory illness have been reported.

Regions in western Ukraine continue to show the highest rates of acute respiratory illness/influenza-like illness. The level of activity in the Kyiv area is also increasing rapidly.

Laboratory testing in Ukraine has confirmed pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in samples taken from patients in two of the most affected regions. As the pandemic virus has rapidly become the dominant influenza strain worldwide, it can be assumed that most cases of influenza in Ukraine are caused by the H1N1 virus.

As elsewhere, WHO strongly recommends early treatment with the antiviral drugs, oseltamivir or zanamivir, for patients who meet treatment criteria, even in the absence of a positive laboratory test confirming H1N1 infection.

At the request of the government, a multi-disciplinary team of nine experts has been deployed by WHO and arrived in Kyiv yesterday evening. Discussions with the Minister of Health were held this morning to brief the team.

Team members will now begin field investigations to characterize the clinical and epidemiological features of the outbreak. Work will initially begin in Lviv region, where reported numbers of cases showing severe manifestations of acute respiratory illness have been especially high. Two virologists on the team have started working at the National Influenza Centre and the laboratories of the Central Sanitary and Epidemiological Station in Kyiv to provide diagnostic support.

Samples sent by the Ministry of Health were received today by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Mill Hill in London, UK. The laboratory will conduct confirmatory tests and further characterize the virus.

Many questions remain to be answered. The outbreak in Ukraine may be indicative of how the virus can behave in the northern hemisphere during the winter season, particularly in health care settings typically found in Eastern Europe.

Given the potential significance of this outbreak as an early warning signal, WHO commends the government of Ukraine for its transparent reporting and open sharing of samples.

WHO continues to recommend no closing of borders and no restrictions on international travel, including to Ukraine. Experience shows that such measures will not stop further spread of the virus.

Ukrainian Masquerade. The Government of Ukraine gave 6 million meters of gauze from the strategic country reserves to make protective face masks.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 08:22:00 +0000

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has decided to give 6 million meters of the gauze, keeped for the use during the extraordinary situations like war, to make face masks for Ukrainians to protect them from the A/H1/N1 bacteria in public places. On the photos women from one of the Chernivtsi clothes factory are sewing new masks for the medical personnel.

My personal impressions about all the H1N1 stuff: I may confirm that there are no medical masks in Kyiv drug stores since Friday. Personally I was wearing a mask in metro today. A lot of people are doing the same. Very thrilling, I may say, and destructive for maquillage.

But, frankly speaking, it seems to me that the swine-flu-panic is more political than medical phenomenon. To be continued.

J.P.Morgan: Tymoshenko victory in elections to lead to greater stability in 2010.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 20:41:00 +0000

One of the news agencies of Ukraine UNIAN has distributed a link to the J.P. Morgan website https://mm.jpmorgan.com/stp/t/c.do?i=95863-48B&u=a_p*d_338911.pdf*h_7ostu6ta where the "economic research" about the consequences of Ukrainian presidential election 2010 is published.

The name of the research - Tymoshenko victory in elections to lead to greater stability in 2010 - tells for itself about the level of the impartiality of the J.P. Morgan experts. I quote here just a couple of statements of the report, rather peremptory, I may say.

"A Tymoshenko victory should bring fiscal consolidation in 2010 and an earlier return to growth."

"Although there are now few differences in policy programs between the main presidential candidates, we believe that a Tymoshenko victory will be the most positive outcome given the current make up of the Rada and Tymoshenko’s plans to strengthen the presidential post."

"We expect a Tymoshenko presidency to lead to fiscal consolidation, improved lending and capital inflows from 2Q 2010 culminating in brighter growth prospects in 2H2010 and 2011. A Yanukovych victory, meanwhile, may lead to early parliamentary elections and possibly a breakdown of the IMF agreement before stabilizing in 4Q2010."

"As for the pending IMF tranche, we expect the Fund to delay disbursement until December 2009 and reduce the scheduled disbursement of US$3.9bn to increase bargaining power next year."

Ukraine shuts schools,cancels public events due H1N1 | Reuters

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:27:00 +0000

Ukraine shuts schools,cancels public events due H1N1 Reuters

(Adds schools closed, public events banned)

KIEV, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Ukraine on Friday closed schools, banned all public events and imposed restrictions on people's movements around the country for a three-week period after confirming its first death from H1N1 swine flu. "All educational institutions without exception ... will be switched on to a three-week holiday period," Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko announced. She indicated this period could be extended if it was deemed necessary.

"Apart from this, we will take the decision to cancel all mass meetings ... for three weeks," she said at an emergency government session. "We will introduce a special system to stop unnecessary travel by people from one region to another," she added.

Earlier, the health ministry confirmed that one of 30 deaths in western Ukraine since mid-October which had been attributed to flu and pneumonia had been caused by the H1N1 strain, commonly known as swine flu. "So far, not all the dead were tested (for H1N1)," a health ministry spokeswoman said. "However, tests on one dead (person) proved positive."

"We are considering (imposing) a quarantine not only in the west, but also across the country because the virus is spreading very fast," Health Minister Vasyl Knyazevych told a news conference, without giving details. (Reporting by Natalya Zinets and Pavel Polityuk; Writing by Richard Balmforth; Editing by Louise Ireland)

The rating of main presidential candidates (according to 5 polls, conducted at the beginning of October 2009)

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:42:00 +0000

The Endless Circle. Ukraine may have snap parliamentary poll in May 2010.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:34:00 +0000

Ukraine may expect the comeback of a ghost of an early parliamentary election in 2010. This secret is widely known as after the presidential election in January-February 2010, the winner (whoever it will be) would surely want to take it all, and to form the majority in Parliament using the effect of his recent victory.

The same point of view has confirmed Volodymyr Lytvyn, Chairman of the Parliament of Ukraine and a newly registered presidential candidate. In May 2010 Ukraine will have snap parliamentary election, he told journalists today.

He emphasized that ‘under the current circumstances in Parliament, a lot of problems will appear’, that’s why the new President will surely try to nail down a success. The key position in country will be the Prime Minister’s office, Mr. Lytvyn added.

Electoral Tears. Speaker of Ukrainian Parliament pretends he’s crying during the ceremony of his presidential nomination

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:51:00 +0000

First-comers. The Central Election Commission of Ukraine received registration papers from first two presidential candidates.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 08:51:00 +0000

On 20 of October the Central Election Commission of Ukraine started to accept registration documents from potential candidates to the presidential post. The first guy who submitted his papers to the Central Election Commission was some Oleh Riabokon, 36 y. o. lawyer. Mr. Riabokon is a co-founder of the “Master and Partners” law firm. Among other co-founders of this company was Sergiy Vlasenko (Member of Parliament, Yulia Tymoshenko block). Of course, Mr. Ryabokon has no chance to win any noticeable result during this election, except the PR for his name and his company.

The second fastest pretender for the first chair in the country is Anatoly Hrytsenko, MP from the “Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence” faction, ex-Minister of Defense, and ex-team-mate of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko. The friendship with President finished after the dismissal of Mr. Hrytsenko from the ministerial office. Anatoly Hrytsenko also has no chance to become a next President of Ukraine, but his rating may rise up to the level of 5-6 heavyweighters, which will surely help him during the next parliamentary election (still expected next year). To whom it may be interesting, I am giving a link to the Ukrainian language website of Mr. Hrytsenko.

Get ready, get set, go! Ukraine officially launched a presidential election campaign on Monday. Today the nomination of the candidates starts.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:30:00 +0000

Last time Ukraine elected president in 2004, when, after the Orange revolution, Viktor Yushchenko came to power, accusing his main rival Viktor Yanukovych in the falsification of the results of the previous tour of election. Now the situation has changed dramatically: according to polls, Mr. Yanukovych is a leading contender. Viktor Yushchenko – on contrary – may try to use his presidential administrative resource during his campaign, experts say.

The second rating has another hero of Orange revolution – the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko. Third – ex-Head of Parliament, and ex-Minister for Foreign Affairs Arseniy Yatseniuk.

Other pretenders are former Head of the National Bank of Ukraine Sergiy Tigipko, current Speaker of the Parliament Volodymyr Lytvyn, Communist party leader Petro Symonenko, and radically right politician Oleh Tyagnybok.

The nomination of the candidates starts today, on 20 October 2009, and will last until 6 November. The last day for the documents’ submission to the Central Electoral Commission is the 9 of November. The CEC has to register all the candidates until 13 November 2009.

In 2009 Ukrainian economy will fall by 15-16%, ex-Minister of Finance of Ukraine Viktor Pynzenyk predicts.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 13:54:00 +0000

In 2009 Ukrainian economy will fall by 15-16%. Such a pessimistic prognosis of former Minister of Finance of Ukraine Viktor Pynzenyk made public today. He has also said that the budget deficit may climb above 33% of GDP in 2009, and 15% in 2010.

The Government of Ukraine determined a fiscal deficit at the level of 3.97% of GDP in the project of State Budget for 2010.

The Constitutional Threat. The election of the President of Ukraine, scheduled on January 2010, may be wrecked by the Constitutional Court ruling.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:34:00 +0000

The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko appealed to the Constitutional Court of Ukraine on Monday, 14 October 2009, to examine the compliance of some clauses of the Law of Ukraine on the amendments to the Law on Presidential Elections (recently adopted by Parliament) with the Constitution of Ukraine. A lot of experts predict it may cause the disruption of the Presidential election, scheduled for the beginning of 2010.

If the Constitutional Court declares that some provisions of the law are unconstitutional, the Presidential election of January 2010 will be put in jeopardy – for sure. Parliament will definitely fail to pass the amendmends to the Law (due to the requirements of the Court) before the official starting date of the presidential race – 19 October 2009. Then it will be easy to question any result of the vote if it happens on 17 January: as the election was organize according to the “old”, unconstitutional version of the law. The only way to stay within the frames of a Fundamental law of the country will be to schedule a new date for the presidential election, extending the term of office of Viktor Yushchenko.

The Speaker of the parliament of Ukraine Volodymyr Lytvyn has recently said that he is ‘convinced that there are reasons for the Constitutional Court to define some clauses of the law as unconstitutional’. He thinks it may cause a political turbulence and lengthy court battles over the election, making the situation ‘disorganized’.

The “new version” of the Law of Ukraine ‘On Presidential Elections’, in particular, reduced the time of presidential campaign from 120 to 90 days. It also allowed adding people to voter lists on the day of election (as the clear and trustable Voter Registry has not been formed in Ukraine yet), and prohibited to vote for Ukrainians living overseas, if they are not included to the Consular register (these legislative innovations are mentioned in the President’s application as one may cause a huge fraud, and another restricts the citizens’ universal right to vote).

Pre-history: On July 24, 2009 the Parliament of Ukraine passed a bill amending the Law on Presidential Elections. On 18 August Viktor Yushchenko vetoed the proposed amendments on the Law on Presidential Elections. But the Parliament convened a special session on August 21, when 325 out of 371 members of parliament override the president's veto.
The presidential election is scheduled for January 17, 2010. If required a second round ballot is expected to take place in February 2010. The President of Ukraine is elected by the citizens of Ukraine for a five-year term, on the basis of universal, equal and direct suffrage, by secret ballot.

The Lit-Crit. Reflections while reading the FT article ‘Yushchenko hits at Moscow ahead of poll’.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 10:34:00 +0000

The Financial Times has published an article called ‘Yushchenko hits at Moscow ahead of poll’ on Monday, 14 of September. I’ve read this story only today, and couldn’t stand but to share my strong disagreement with some points, so categorically stated by the author. So, let me give some comments to this article.
‘Yushchenko hits at Moscow ahead of poll’
By Roman Olearchyk in Kiev
Published: September 14 2009 14:16 Last updated: September 14 2009 14:16
Viktor Yushchenko, the embattled Ukrainian president, complained of Russian meddling in Kiev’s domestic affairs ahead of a high-stakes presidential election, which the pro-western leader is expected to lose to a more Kremlin-friendly candidate.
---To be pro-Western doesn’t mean to be totally anti-Russian. I don’t think that the spoiled relationship with the official Moscow may be called as the advantage of the presidency of Mt. Yushchenko.
In a Financial Times interview, Mr Yushchenko said Moscow had waged a smear campaign against Kiev and could try to manipulate Ukraine’s electorate – claims that were also made in 2004 when Mr Yushchenko was propelled to power against a Kremlin-backed candidate. Voters remain split in an east-west axis between Russian and Ukrainian speakers.
--- It is wrong to state that the Ukrainian electorate is divided to Russian speakers and Ukrainian speakers. The author either have never visited East of Ukraine (but I hardly think so), or just wanted to make a witty statement to attract more attention of foreign readers. I would say that there are a lot of Ukrainian speakers in Eastern Ukraine, especially in a countryside: even my own relatives who are living near Donetsk are using Ukrainian as a language of family communication. Yes, there are lot of Russian speakers in the Eastern and Central part of Ukraine – mostly due to the labor migration from other regions of Soviet Union caused by the industrialization growth. But let me assure the respected author of the article that most of the Russian speaking people are feeling themselves as citizens of Ukraine, not servants of Russia as some people want to demonstrate.
The problem of the split of electoral preferences in Ukraine is not the question of language, but sort of a regional solidarity. People from Eastern Ukraine support Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions, first of all, because they think he is going to support their interests, and to make their own regions more prosperous. Such an antagonism to other opponents of Mr. Yanukovych is a simple reaction to their rhetoric, which often sounds unfriendly to the Eastern regions of Ukraine – people from there had been called as thieves, extremists, betrayers, Russian henchmen and so on. The same situation we may see in Western Ukraine, when some politicians are trying to win extra-support, setting Ukrainians against each other.
The issue of Russian interference in Ukraine’s election emerged last month when Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, accused Mr Yushchenko of waging “anti-Russian” policies by seeking membership in the Nato military alliance, and urged the country’s future president to be more friendly.
--- What is a problem with being friendly to your neighbors?
Mr Yushchenko said he expects Russia to stir up separatist sentiment on Ukraine’s Russian-leaning Crimean peninsula. But he ruled out escalation into a military conflict of the kind seen last summer in Georgia, another pro-western ally on post-Soviet turf. Moscow continues to firmly back the independence aspirations of two Georgian breakaway enclaves, one of which, South Ossetia, was at the centre of the war.
Many in Kiev fear a similar scenario in Crimea.“They will try to exploit the ‘Crimean Card’. But, I don’t see a risk that the situation in Georgia would repeat,” said Mr Yushchenko when asked if separatism or military clashes could erupt. “Ukraine is not Georgia,” he said, referring to the country’s larger population, military and geopolitical significance.“Strength today is not in a military position. Employing it would be complete stupidity,” he added.
--- I agree with the statement about the ‘Crimean Card”. Nevertheless, the military scenario in the Crimea is unfortunately possible, but rather in a form of a provoked inside disorder.
Referring to last January’s natural gas stand-off between Kiev and Moscow, which disrupted European supplies, and relentless Russian warnings that recession-battered Ukraine was unable to pay its gas bill, Mr Yushchenko said: “There are a lot of hidden and cynical schemes being played through information airwaves, aimed at discrediting Ukraine” in the eyes of Europe and the world.
Mr Yushchenko said: “We are witnesses of how the politics of totalitarianism is reaching its apogee against the principles of democracy, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Georgia is a sign of how, unfortunately, the Pan-European community did not stand up to defend these fundamental principles. It was a setback,” he said.
--- Nothing to say. Was the EU supposed to dig up the hatchet against Russia?
The Ukrainian president said he hoped soon to meet US President Barack Obama to discuss these and other issues and expressed solidarity with a plea to Western leaders made last week by members of Ukraine’s intelligentsia. In an open letter, politicians, artists and experts had called for western leaders to provide Ukraine with stronger security guarantees against an increasing threat from Russia.
--- ‘to discuss these and other issues’ – it’s rather strange interpretation of the interview with the President of a country.
Mr Yushchenko trails three frontrunners in the election who are actively seeking to harmonise relations with Russia. They include Yulia Tymoshenko, prime minister and erstwhile Orange Revolution partner, and ex-prime minister Viktor Yanukovich, the Moscow-backed candidate in 2004. Mr Yushchenko accused them of pandering to Moscow, selling out Ukrainian interests as “trading cards” to get Russia’s support for their candidacies.
--- Is it bad to seek to harmonize relations with a neighboring super-power? I think that the most preferable way for Ukraine to build its foreign policy and strategy of its implementation is making friends, not enemies. Russia will never disappear from Ukrainian border, and the smartest way is to try to build a system of checks and balances based on the multi-vector policy.

Time management. The highweighters of Ukrainian politics have opened presidential race long time before its official start.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 09:35:00 +0000

There is no such a thing as “a lack of time” for a person who understands, what the time-management is. That’s why I’ve decided to come back to blogging, despite of a pretty much pressed working schedule. Ukrainian politicians don’t want to waist the time left before the official start of the presidential race also (according to the 'new edition' of the Law on elections, it's 19 October 2009): streets of the cities, towns and villages of Ukraine, as well as the sides of big roads, are already stuffed with the billboards with political promises.

To my impression, the most active in the pre-electoral advertising are the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko and ex-Chairman of Parliament Arseniy Yatseniuk. Their PR-ideas are rather original as well. Though, it seems to me that Mr. Yatseniuk is simply wasting money: his strangely colored boards and bizarre slogans are kind of shot in the eye for his ratings, imho.

So, Yulia Tymoshenko plays with contraposition. 'They promise, she works', 'They block, she works', 'They obstruct, she works', 'They ruin, she works', etc, her billboards are declaring. No names, but everyone understands, who is She.

The visual messages of Arseniy Yatsenyuk are supposed to use a kind of military symbolism to emphasize his willingness and ability to become a strong leader. But, frankly speaking, it doesn't look very convincing.

The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko: “I'm ready to hold early presidential election”.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 20:19:00 +0000

A couple of quotations from today’s press-conference of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko:
"The ruling coalition in Parliament is de facto absent".
"The majority voting system will never be presented again in Ukraine".
"The parliamentary coalition should prove it has 226 MPs, and re-introduce a candidature of PM".
"I'm ready to hold early presidential election, if the parliament agrees to hold early parliamentary election on a base of a new electoral law, and to abolish unlimited parliamentary immunities"
"Decision of the Constitutional Court shall be the base for future actions (concerning early parliamentary election. – T.V.)"

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made public its World Economic Outlook today. The Fund revised its forecast of GDP of Ukraine to a drop of 8 percent this year, from the earlier figure of 3 percent. It also predicted the economy of Ukraine would grow 1.0 percent in 2010.
The World Bank also revised its 2009 forecast this month, and said that the Ukrainian GDP will drop to 9 percent from a previous prediction of minus 4 percent.
Ukrainian government still thinks that GDP-2009 will grow on 0.4 percent. In 2008, the economy grew 2.1 percent.

The April Fool’s Day. Ukrainian Parliament scheduled presidential election to be held three months earlier than it was expected – on 25 October 2009.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 19:43:00 +0000

The Parliament of Ukraine has decided today to schedule the next presidential election on 25 October 2009. Just to remind, previously most of MPs and experts suggested the election of President has to be held in January 2010 – 4 years after the Inauguration day. The decision of Verkhovna Rada was a kind of an answer to the Presidential address to Parliament (yesterday).

Actually the real background of today’s vote of Ukrainian Parliament is hiding not exactly in the speech of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko, and even not in his unexpected idea to change a Constitution by himself, or to introduce a two-chamber Parliament with a rather weak Lower House.

There is a rumor that the Presidential Secretariat has already drafted a Decree to dismiss the current Parliament and to call for a snap parliamentary election in a nearest future. To stay ahead, all the parliamentary factions united in common decision: to cut the presidential term of Mr. Yushchenko for 3 months. The second, but not less significant goal of the MPs was to secure their immunities: the Constitution says the Parliament shall not be dismissed during 6 months before presidential election.

401 of MPs voted in favor of “25 October”, 7 – the Presidential part of Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence faction (United Center party) – voted against. Vyacheslav Kyrylenko, member of OU-PSD, addressed his colleagues during the parliamentary debates: “What are we afraid of? Early parliamentary election? Dear Mr. Speaker, do you have information on the respective Decree of the President? Please, make this information public!”

What's next? Viktor Yushchenko is going to challenge the decision of Parliament in the Constitutional Court of Ukraine. “This decision is not legal, this decision does not correspond to the Constitution”, he said today. “All of them are going to lose before the October… The election will be held in due time, provided by the Constitution of Ukraine”.

The version of the Constitution of Ukraine acting in 2004 (when Mr. Yushchenko was elected) says the presidential election should be held every four years. A current edition of the Constitution provides that the President shall be in power during four years after he assumed the office.

“After this speech, I’ll pass to Speaker Lytvyn my project of a new Constitution ”. Viktor Yushchenko addressed the Parliament of Ukraine.

vysott@yandex.ru (Tetyana Vysotska) — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 07:58:00 +0000

The President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko has addressed the Parliament today with his annual speech. Mr. Yushchenko failed to appear in Verkhovna Rada with his speech last year - the parliamentary tribune was blocked - but this time he has fully made up for lost opportunity.

The ordinary presidential speech with the expected call for all the political leaders to stop fighting and unite all the forces for saving Ukrainian economy in crisis times was finished with a surprise. President informed that he's going to introduce to Parliament of Ukraine a new project of the Constitution of Ukraine - right now.

Viktor Yushchenko proposes a dramatic change of the very system of powers in Ukraine. First of all, he wants Ukraine to have the two-chamber Parliament, and to reduce a number of MPs.

According to President, the Lower Chamber of the Parliament of Ukraine shall be elected by proportional voting system (like today) with open political party lists. The Lower Chamber will form the Government and control its work. "The inability to form the Government will lead to the dismissal of the Lower Chamber, but not all the Parliament. In this case the work of the Parliament will not stop," Viktor Yushchenko noticed.

The Upper Chamber should be elected among the representatives of regions of the country - using the majority voting system. It will work in lose connection with the President of Ukraine, in particular, dealing with the security issues. Every district of Ukraine will have 3 Senators elected.

"The political turbulence will be left in the Lower Chamber of Parliament", Viktor Yushchenko thinks. "President, together with the Upper Chamber, will secure stability of the state".

The President of Ukraine called for an urgent examination of his project of the Constitution of Ukraine in Parliament.