Blogs By Fans

No-Winn Defense in 2010, and No Subtle Pot Jokes Whatsoever

2009-11-10T06:33:46Z

Blogging several days after Tim Lincecum's pot-and-speeding bust, now reduced to a minor infraction, I am too late to drop giggly marijuana references into my post. Besides, it's nothing to make light of. I'm certainly not one to spark up controversy by suggesting a contraband substance is somehow worthy of comedic kindness. No siree, bud. That sort of humor doesn't resinate with me.

On to today's news: Baggs reports that Randy Winn's services are no longer needed in the House of Mays. It's no surprise, but let's pause to officially acknowledge that Randy Winn was a good Giant. He was not a good Giant hitter in 2009 or 2006, when he hobbled around much of the year after fouling spherical objects off his shinbone. But his defense, baserunning, and offense for more than half his Giant career added up to being more valuable than the three year, $23 million extension Brian Sabean gave him in 2006. Whatever you do, however you mock Sabean, you cannot put Winn's contract on the bad side of his ledger. You can mock him, however, for not putting Winn in center field in 2008 instead of signing Aaron Rowand, a real center fielder.

So now the Giants have informed Winn's agent they won't be asking him back, which means a lot more Nate Schierholtz, yes? Is that a good thing? Bochy's refusal to play Nate in 2009, citing among other things his tremendous value off the bench, was often infuriating. Overall Schierholtz kinda sucked for the year, but it could be the kind of part-time, young-player suckage that heralds the blossoming of a less-young player who might not suck. (Note that Bill James's projection system predicts a .288 / .325 / .459 line from Nate next year, for what it's worth.)

What's clear is that Schierholtz is a very good defensive right fielder, and his mere presence out there will keep baserunners from trying to advance. He's that good. Before replacing Nate's bat in the lineup, which is an option the Giants have to consider this winter, the cost of replacing his defense with something worse also must be weighed.

Let's have a poll without all those complicated buttons and bars. Technology. Bah. Just enter your answers in the comments. Should the Giants:

a) Start 2009 with Nate as the RF and keep him there all year, no matter what.
b) Start 2009 with Nate but replace him with a big slugging outfielder if he slumps.
c) Use Nate as trade bait this winter.
d) Keep him as pinch-hitter deluxe and late-inning defensive replacement.
e) Don't bogart that Schierholtz.

Things to Read: 11/9

2009-11-09T23:48:00Z

Send tips to rickhouse@blogsbyfans.com. And don't forget about my Bears-Cards recap below.

Baby Birdman will be doing PCP before you know it.

Big League Stew: Sammy Sosa's skin explained. I guess.

Joe Posnanski: Putting the Yankees' payroll in perspective.

The Blowtorch: In case you forgot how bad the Hornets are...

Deadspin: Donald Sterling is an awful, awful person.

Free Darko: The cautionary tale of Jeremy Tyler.

And a music video. After the jump...

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Are the Suns For Real?

2009-11-09T21:59:10Z

The Phoenix Suns have to be considered the surprise team of the early season. With a 6-1 record, including a road win in Boston, they're in driver's seat in the Pacific Division, tied with the Lakers but getting road games in the win column early on. Nash is playing at MVP level again, Amare is back. Channing Frye is suddenly an offensive weapon. This is a tough matchup for the Sixers, without a doubt. There are a few buts, we'll get into them after the jump.
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But #1: The Suns aren't young. Steve Nash and Grant Hill are on the wrong side of 35 and the team depends on both of them to play 30+ minutes every night.
But #2: The Suns played last night. Nash played almost 35 minutes, Hill played just over 33. Amare played over 40.
But #3: The Suns play at a break-neck pace (2nd in the league at 98.4 pos/48 min. This should play into the Sixers hands, since they won't have to maintain defense for the entire shot clock.
But #4: The Suns turn the ball over a ton. 5th-worst in the league at 18.1% of all possessions end in turnovers.
But #5: M16 owns the Suns. Last year, amid Amare trade rumors, Speights ran all over the Suns in a win at the Wach. 24 points in 24 minutes on 11/16 from the floor. He then dominated them in the preseason less than a month ago, twice. I think he likes playing against Amare.

Still no word on who will be in the starting lineup for the Sixers. My money is on no changes whatsoever, but there's a possibility that Speights could slide in for Sammy, we're just going to have to wait and see.

Nothing in the Sixers play indicates that they will even make a game out of this. They've been horrible on both sides of the ball, they've let their opponents dictate the pace in every single game. They've been neither efficient nor inspired. Home-court advantage seems like a bit of a misnomer when you're playing in a half-full arena. Something needs to give for this team. We knew the road would be bumpy in the early going as the team tried to grasp the nuances of the Princeton offense (or maybe even just the basics), but I definitely didn't expect to see basketball of this sort.

Perhaps a win tonight will would energize the team. Maybe tonight is the night they wake up and start playing as a unit on both ends. I'm not optimistic, but I suppose it could happen.

One last note, Jrue Holiday has been ignored, for the most part, since the beginning of the preseason. Only once has he played more than 22 minutes in a game. That game was played on October 16th against these very Suns. In that game, Jrue played 30 minutes, finished 5/9 from the floor for 14 points with 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal and only 2 turnovers. If the team was playing well, I'd probably be less concerned with Jrue's minutes, but honestly, they can't play much worse. The kid had enormous success vs. the Suns in the preseason, so I'm hoping he gets another opportunity tonight. I don't see what damage giving him Royal Ivey's 10 minutes could do.

Mismatches

Frye guarding Brand. (Huge strength advantage to EB, they need to capitalize)
Williams vs. Nash, Nash vs. Williams (both dynamic offensive players, both phantom defenders. My money is on Nash to do a better job exploiting it on the offensive end)
Thad Young guarding Grant Hill (the wily veteran has more sneaky moves than you can shake a stick at. I think Thad will have a problem sticking with him)

Keys to The Game: Nothing shocking here, three-point defense and cleaning the defensive glass.
If _______________ the Sixers will win: Elton Brand attempts 15 shots.

Game 6 Advanced Stats and One Quick Stat

2009-11-09T18:16:27Z

The Sixers advanced stats are quickly regressing. We'll take a look at the chart and one alarming "simple" stat after the jump.
]]> Yup, yesterday was a complete sweep in the four factors. When that happens, you usually lose by about 30 points. I guess we can look at that as a positive, they only lost by 7.

For me, the rebounding percentage was astounding, but the pace was just hideous. Again, the Sixers allowed their opponents to dictate the pace of the game (this is tied directly to poor defensive rebounding as well, because offensive boards extend possessions). Six games in and still no statistical identity. I'm not sure how long it should take for a team decide at what pace they're comfortable playing, but it's something to keep an eye on.

The Sixers are shooting a miserable 29.8% from three. 28 makes out of 94 attempts. If you take Willie Green (0/9) and Thad Young (1/12) out of the equation, they're better than league average at 37%. On the other hand, if you take Jason Kapono (9/20) out, they're historically, unbelievably bad at 25.7%.

This team is a mess right now. Hopefully, they'll be able to pull it together a little bit tonight against the Suns. Preview coming a little later.

Arizona 41, Chicago 21: Please Go Home Now, Bears

2009-11-09T16:54:41Z

I wrote this for FCP, but I have no idea what's going on over there yet, so whatever. Here you go.

Even all these hours after that train wreck of a game against the Cardinals finally ended, I'm still left trying to figure out how the Bears got to this point. Did they ruin their karma during the bye week? Was a second straight gut-wrenching loss in Atlanta too much to take? Did Cedric Benson single-handidly kill the team's will to live? I don't know, and I'm not sure anyone does. The Bears weren't always this bad, though.

There was a time - just a quarter ago, in the coach's mind - when they were 3-1 and the league was their oyster. Not anymore. The second quarter of this season has been a disaster: a stomach punch loss against the Falcons, a pair of blowout defeats against teams that aren't even that good, and one of the most unsatisfying three touchdown victories you'll ever see. The Bears are quite awful right now, and it's hard to imagine them beating anyone outside of Detroit and St. Louis the rest of this season.

Yesterday's loss to the Cardinals was systematic destruction. Arizona won the coin toss and marched down the field for a touchdown. The Bears may as well have quit right there. Sure, the offense answered with a touchdown to Olsen - the second of two gorgeous throws Cutler made on the first drive - but the only way the Bears were going to win this one was if they turned it into a shootout, and the offense still isn't even close to that point yet. It's a shame, because unless this offense explodes, these Bears won't be beating any halfway competent team. This is what happens when you pride yourself on defense, and then your team plays defense like Ben Gordon.

The blame for the collapse of the vaunted highlight-heavy Tampa-2 can go all around. It's Angelo's fault for blowing so many draft picks after years of being able to find guys like Charles Tillman, Alex Brown, and Lance Briggs in the mid-rounds. It's the players fault for wanting to be paid like stars after the Super Bowl run, getting their wish, and then losing their edge. It's Lovie's fault for being too stubborn to deviate from a surely broken system. The Bears defense is bad for many reasons: there aren't enough good players, too many of the former stars look apathetic, the coach doesn't know how to get his message across anymore. As such, this team appears hopeless. Even just halfway through the season, 2009 already appears to be a single-file death march.

Unless there's internal improvement, it doesn't look like things are going to change any time soon. The Bears will probably steal a victory or two they don't deserve as the season plays out, but - even as they sit at 4-4 - we should be able to say with certainty that this team isn't going to the playoffs.

Then the season will be over. The Bears won't be able infuse young talent without a draft pick until the third round. Angelo can cut Tommie Harris, but the ripples of the cap hit from his massive contract will still be felt. It's a good bet that Lovie won't be going anywhere, either. Do you really think the Bears are going to eat $11 million? They won't, especially not when they know that their next coach needs to be one with a big name, and men with the the credentials of Mike Shanahan or Bill Cowher don't come cheap.

This is still the NFL, of course, so anything can happen. Even if the Bears only have one thing going for them, it's comforting to know that that one thing is a quarterback. It doesn't look like he's going to make much difference this year, though. Cutler may be here, but the play on the field is identical to the team that frustrated so many in 2008.

Cobra Chronicles: Greatest Halftime Speech Ever

2009-11-09T15:27:23Z

We had lost three in a row and now we were playing our rivals, who we were favored to beat. Our previous two games had been absolute heartbreaking losses.....one to a team we should have beaten where I took an ill advised 3-point shot to win the game and missed....the second was our first conference game of the season and we ended up not only losing the game but we also our leading scorer to injury.

We had to win this game. A loss puts us two games down in the conference and kills the ability to recruit in the area for the coaches.

With our leading scorer out of the game I get moved from the wing to a low post position when we are on defense because I have the ability to sustain position and 'bump' with the big guys. No big deal, I'm there to help out.

I recognize the name of the player I'm supposed to guard even before we board the bus. All-State player in high school. All-time leading scorer at this particular college. A beast who has six inches and fifty pounds on me.

I decide that if I can keep him from getting a double-double then we can win the game. It's going to be a long night for both of us.

]]> The game starts off a bit wildly as both teams are trying to set the tone. They are playing up-tempo to try to take advantage of our depth issues. We are settling for perimeter shots because our big guy is out. It's probably not the most beautiful game of basketball to watch but the crowd is bringing their 'A' game tonight and turning up the intensity.

'The Beast' gets a quick six points on me about four minutes into the game and I'm making it too easy on him. He can shoot right over me in the post so I can't let him get that position. I start bumping him all the way down the floor. Literally. Made basket or not, I would run right next to him the entire time he ran down to his offensive end of the court. Once he reached the 3-pt stripe I was chest to chest and it was time to figure out what kind of heart he had. Physically, he could overmatch me but lesser men succumb to pressure and falter when things get difficult. I hoped this would be the case with him....and it was.

The first half continues to go back and forth. We are up a point, they go up two. Coaches are pissed, fans are screaming and since we are only playing with seven players....we are gassed. Halftime can not come soon enough.

I'm the trailer tonight in our Kansas fast break scheme and I hit a three with four seconds left in the first half to put us up one. We're excited to head into half-time. This is a team we should beat by twenty on a normal night but we are facing an uphill battle with our best player out.

Halftime is generally a time to hammer home the pre-game strategy and/or to re-assess defensive assignments. There really wasn't much to do on either front since our best chance to win was to hit from the perimeter and we didn't have enough guys to be switching up who we were guarding. So, walking into the cramped locker room we knew that this was going to be a time to rest and regroup.

One of our assistant coaches was about as vocal as a field mouse. Yes, he'd pull you off to the side and offer a suggestion or two but if his goal was to 'speak softly and carry a big stick', we never saw the big stick and we figured he was just along for the ride. Not tonight though, he was going to earn his paycheck so he took over the halftime speech.

He walks in punching lockers and pretty much just growling. He doesn't even make it to the chalkboard when, as he stands behind us, he yells,

"That team isn't good enough to play in the same area code as you guys!!! They have no right to be out on the same floor as you!!! But right now they are kicking your ass!! They are.....FUCKING YOU IN THE ASS......AND THEY ARE NOT EVEN USING LUBE!!!"

As a player, what do you do when you hear that? I'm the only senior on the team and I wasn't even sure how to take it. The underclassmen weren't sure whether to laugh, giggle or be mad. We sat there stunned for about ten seconds. I knew there wasn't going to be much more to the half-time speech so I stood up, punched a locker and ran back onto the court. Why? I don't know, but the guys followed me and we were ready to go for the second half.

We ended up winning the game by two points (83-81) but that half-time speech scaredthe guys so much that we withstood what should have been a furious onslaught by our opponent as the second half started and turned it into our own eight point lead.

Probably not the most politically correct speech of all time and, really, it had nothing to do with basketball but it got the job done. It certainly gave us something to talk about on the bus ride home that night.

*****'The Beast' ended up with 13 points and 8 rebounds and they retired his number at the end of the season.

Pacers Play Complete Game - Beat Wizards

2009-11-09T15:15:26Z

On Friday night, the Pacers were back at home to host the Washington Wizards. Going into the game there was the possibility of Tyler Hansbrough making his debut, while Troy Murphy would sit out again with his injured back. Murphy sat out and Hansbrough had a very good first showing.

The Pacers trailed for the first 3 minutes of the game, but then led for the last 45 minutes. Washington made two small runs, but nothing that was sustained.

Positives:

Roy Hibbert has his third straight double-double with 12 points and 11 rebounds. He also had 5 blocks for the game.
Hansbrough had a solid debut with 13 points and 5 rebounds. The biggest impression on me was the fact that he got to the line 10 times in 14 minutes. He was very good at getting to the line in college, so I hope this is a sign that he will continue to do that.
TJ Ford had a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
Dahntay Jones continues to impress me with his all around game. 18 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block on the night. He is taking smart shots within the offense and being aggressive when he has a mismatch.
The Pacers attempted 10 more free throws than Washington and made 12 more.
12 steals, 10 blocks, and only 11 turnovers for the team on the night.

Negatives:

Brandon Rush hurt his ankle and was labeled as a sprain, but still waiting on how bad it is. Rush only played 15 minutes before the injury.
TJ Ford is only averaging 2.2 assists per game so far. The Pacers will need more than that from him to continue to be successful this season.
Brendan Haywood grabbed 19 rebounds on the night, including 8 on the offensive glass. That can't happen in too many games or you will be looking at a loss.
Pacers continue to shoot poorly from three point distance. Only 7-for-23 in this one.

POG: Going to have to go with Hibbert again. He is on a nice streak right now. Hope to see him keep it going.

Record: 2-3

Next Game: Wednesday vs Golden State (1-4) - should be a shootout in this one. Look for Hansbrough to get more playing time.

Eagles Fall out of First Place with a 20-16 Loss to the Cowboys

2009-11-09T14:26:21Z

Last night's loss to the Cowboys came down to two simple factors that have plagued the Eagles in recent history; the ability to convert third and short yardage opportunities on offense, and the ability to shut down opposing team's tight ends on defense. Against Dallas they failed miserably in both categories and it cost them the game.

Not only couldn't the Birds convert some short yardage plays when they needed them the most, they wasted two timeouts in the second half challenging the spot of the ball that would have given them the first down. While I admit, from the replays it appears that both of these spots did cheat the Eagles out two much needed first downs, getting the refs to actually change the spot is much easier said than done. The decision to challenge both these plays proved to be costly as it left the Birds without any time outs at the end of the game when they needed them the most.

As far as stopping the TE, Jason Whitten once again broke the backs of the Eagles has his five yard catch for a first down with two minutes left in the game was all they needed to run out the clock and seal the win. Whitten ended up with seven receptions for only 43 yards, but it seemed like every one of those catches were for a first down to keep a Cowboy's drive alive.

I will give credit to Tony Romo for coming into a hostile environment like the Linc and managing the game well enough to get the win. I was not overly impressed with the Cowboys as a team as I do believe this loss was more of the Eagles not executing properly in key situations, rather than Dallas completely out playing the Birds.

The second half should prove interesting for both teams as the NFC East is still very much up for grabs. Along with the Giants, all these teams will find a way to make this a very close race with some great wins and dramatic losses over the next eight weeks. Once again these two teams will meet the last Sunday of the season in a game that will most likely have major playoff implications for both. While last night's loss still stings as it was a game they should have won, something tells me January 3rd's game will be the true test of which team will be tops in the NFC East.

Sign This Shea Blogger Up

2009-11-09T14:23:06Z

I just came across this tremendous effort- The Amazing Shea Stadium Autograph Project.

The site was started in October 2008 by a Met fan in Westfield, Indiana named Lee Harmon. As Lee wrote on his site , in honor of the 792 Mets that played at Shea,

"I created a set of handmade cards featuring each one of these men. My design was done in such a way as to allow an autograph to be included. I am now in the process of having each one signed by those players."

So far, Lee has collected 445 autographs, or 56.2 percent of his goal. His latest conquest was just this morning when he posted the signature of Gustavo Molina, a catcher who appeared in two Shea games in 2008.

Loge13 salutes you Lee and you are welcome in our virtual Shea section anytime. Keep us informed of your progress!

The Beginning of Everything

2009-11-09T14:04:17Z

The general managers get together starting today in Chicago. While this is a preview of the big "winter meetings" that will be held next month in Indianapolis, there's not expected to be much of a ripple made in the offseason pond from this gathering. Joe Strauss sets the scene not only for these meetings, but for the whole offseason in his article today.

The Cardinals are going to have a lot of news and rumors float around them this offseason, with Matt Holliday being the focal point. Strauss says that the Cards were looking at $17 million a year for Holliday, but that won't likely be in the ballpark if Scott Boras is able to get his Teixeria-like money for him.

You know, I knew that the Cards were going to have to shell out a ton of money for Holliday, but seeing figures like $17 million put down on virtual paper is an eye-opener. I honestly can't see how St. Louis could afford Holliday, an extention for Albert Pujols (which would have to be more than what Holliday receives), and continue to maintain the payroll that includes Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals are going to hit the end of their resources pretty quickly in that regard.

Unfortunately, they are kinda painted into a corner. If they don't get Holliday, they probably are in on Jason Bay, but he's not necessarily going to be that much cheaper. (Though I have always been somewhat of a Bay fan and would like to see him in St. Louis.) If they don't get either guy, they don't necessarily have the bullets in the farm system to make a deal to get another outfielder, so they might go with what they have.

Of course, the other option is to load up on pitching and hope that Pujols, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick and Yadier Molina can put up enough runs to win some low-scoring games. To that end, John Lackey is on the market and would make for a heck of a rotation with Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, but I can't see the Cardinals going that route.

Should be interesting to see what trickles out of these meetings, whether some groundwork is set for bigger deals down the road. Due to John Mozeliak being there, I'd not expect anything McGwire-related until the end of the week or beginning of next. I'm still not completely sure they won't have it the week of Thanksgiving to try to keep a lower profile.

Completely off topic, the accountant in me finds this mildly humorous.

Wednesday night's UCB Radio Hour this week will have MLB.com writer Matthew Leach on the program. Be sure to tune in!

Losing on the Glass

2009-11-09T05:08:05Z

At least a game like this makes it easy to point out where a team went wrong. Here's a hint, when you collect only 54% of the available defensive rebounds, you are not going to win. In fact, if you're playing even a halfway decent team, you're going to lose by about 30 points. If you're playing a team as bad as the Pistons, however, you only lose by 7.]]> Your strange rotation chart, featuring more subs than any other game thus far, another DNPCD for Jrue Holiday, a different starting lineup for the 3rd quarter than the first (I can't remember the last time this happened without an injury) and the disappearance of Jason Kapono:

Pretty much from the opening tip, the Sixers were dominated on the defensive glass. I have to assume the coaches realized what was going on, and I also have to assume they thought playing their best-rebounding combo at C and PF (Sam and Elton) for only 10:13 was a good way to remedy the problem.

Anyway, no one rebounded well on the defensive glass, so I'm not sure how much rotations had to do with it. This game was, hopefully, the worst effort we'll see this entire season. Detroit is a bad team, and we looked worse. That sentence sums up my feelings pretty well.

For a couple of brief stretches it looked like Iguodala was going to take the game over, but he disappeared after giving the team their first lead midway through the first quarter. Actually, he didn't disappear, he just decided he was going to shoot nothing but jumpers from that point on. Come to think of it, he relied on jumpers most of the game, he just stopped hitting them late in the fourth. The first time he touched the ball, he backed Stuckey down into the lane, all the way to the hoop, elevated and scored easily. That was the last time we saw him working in the post, even though Detroit had no one who could guard him down there.

Elton Brand had another disappointing game. Again, the team didn't get him the ball anywhere near where he'd be a threat with it, but I'm pretty sure that alone doesn't explain away his lack of production. His rebound numbers look good (9 in 29 minutes), but five of them were on the offensive glass, so he wasn't helping too much on the defensive end.

The big news, if you've followed the Sixers for a while, or the NBA in general, was the use of a different starting lineup at the beginning of the third quarter. This simply isn't done in the NBA very often. Sammy barely played in the first half, Speights was decent before the break, I suppose. Not sure there was a tangible reason for the move, I didn't notice any deficiencies in Sammy's game, no glaring mistakes. Perhaps it was a nod to Speights improved play over the first 5-and-a-half games of the season, perhaps it was a foregone conclusion that the superior offensive player would get the start at the five sooner rather than later for an Eddie Jordan team. I'm not sure. I'm not even sure how I feel about it. This team isn't going to defend, that seems pretty clear to me. Defense is not a priority. If that's the case, starting Sammy is counterproductive, I suppose. Speights has shown a little more effort on the defensive end, and Brand can help him out around the basket. Maybe it's time. I'd definitely give Speights the start tomorrow night, considering the success he's had against Amare and the Suns in the past. Hopefully, Marreese is able to shake off the knee/thigh issue that chased him from the game today.

Eddie Jordan's perfect record in games the Sixers should've won has been broken (although if things continue down this path, we're going to have to re-evaluate "should've won"). They're 3-3 after 6 games, which is where I had them at this point, although I had the results of the past two games flip-flopped.

The only positive I can draw from this game is that we won't have to live with it for long. The Sixers are already back in Philly, awaiting the Phoenix Suns who are coming off a 12-point win in Washington (A Washington team that's now 2-5 after losing 4 straight). We can turn the page quickly with a strong effort tomorrow night. I can't say I'm expecting it, but stranger things have happened.

Player Of The Game: Speights (Only player with a positive +/-). 15 points (7/9 from the floor), 6 boards, 2 assists, 2 blocks and only 1 turnover in 23 minutes of action.
Team Record: 3-3
Up Next: vs. Phoenix, tomorrow night.

2009 Cardinal Blogger Awards Nominations

2009-11-09T03:24:14Z

For the third consecutive year, the members of the United Cardinal Bloggers will be voting on various aspects of this past season so as to bestow the Cardinal Blogger Awards. It's sort of the unofficial kickoff to the UCB year, as this was the first project we ever did as a group back in 2007.

The rules are simple. Each member blog will post their selections on November 20. I will tally up the votes and post the results soon after. For every vote, a write-in selection is allowed. Members may split their vote in any category two ways, but no more than that. If they want to recognize more than two players or people, a group (i.e., the bullpen, the bench) must be selected.

So, after the jump, the nominees for the 2009 Cardinal Blogger Awards, presented without any commentary or argument.

]]> 1. Cardinal Player of the Year

Matt Holliday
Albert Pujols
Brendan Ryan
Write-in: __________

2. Cardinal Pitcher of the Year

Chris Carpenter
Ryan Franklin
Adam Wainwright
Write-in: __________

3. Game of the Year

4. Surprise Player of the Year

Ryan Franklin
Brendan Ryan
Skip Schumaker
Write-in: _____________

5. Disappointing Player of the Year

Rick Ankiel
Khalil Greene
Kyle Lohse
Write-in: _____________

6. Cardinal Rookie of the Year

Mitchell Boggs
Blake Hawksworth
Colby Rasmus
Write-in: ____________

7. Off-Season Acquisition of the Year

Khalil Greene
Trever Miller
Dennys Reyes
Write-in: ____________

8. Midseason Acquisition of the Year

Mark DeRosa
Matt Holliday
John Smoltz
Write-in: _________

9. Most Anticipated Cardinal

Allen Craig
Daryl Jones
Shelby Miller
Write-in: __________

10. Best Individual Blog*

Write-in: __________

11. Best Team Blog^

Write-in: __________

12. Best Media Blog

Bird Land
Cardinal Beat
Obviously, You're Not a Golfer
Write-in: __________

13. Best UCB Project

14. Most Optimistic Cardinal Blog

Write-in: ____________

15. Funniest Cardinal Blog

Write-in: ____________

16. Rookie Blog of the Year

*Individual blogs are blogs that are written in whole (or, at least 90%) by one person. Examples would be this blog, Fungoes, Stan Musial's Stance.

^Team blogs are written by two or more people. Examples would include Viva El Birdos, Pitchers Hit Eighth and CardinalsGM.

The Iverson Fiasco

2009-11-09T00:25:32Z

Allen Iverson requested and was granted an indefinite leave from the Memphis Grizzlies yesterday to deal with personal/family issues. There is now speculation that Iverson's career may be over. Let's use this thread to discuss AI's career after leaving Philly, and the dramatic turn for the worse it took after he was traded from Denver to Detroit last season.

Sixers Head to etroit

2009-11-08T13:22:09Z

Get it, no "D." It's not technically true, they're a middle-of-the-pack defensive team, statistically, and their numbers are much better than the Sixers, but they aren't what they used to be. Not even close. Check out the preview after the jump.
]]> It looks like both Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince will miss this game, which means the Sixers will probably face this lineup:

PG: Stuckey
SG: Ben Gordon
SF: Charlie Villaneuva
PF: Jonas Jerebko
C: Ben Wallace

If you don't know who Jerebko is, click the link. I didn't either. If you don't know what happened to Jason Maxielle that he can't even get a start with this depleted front court, ask John Kuester.

My guess is that the Sixers and Pistons will flip-flop their defensive assignments at the guard spots, with Lou checking Ben Gordon and Iguodala against the bigger, and more physical, Stuckey. The wild card among the guards is Will Bynum, he's the NBA equivalent of a scatback in the NFL, and he can change the game with his penetration off the bench.

On the offensive end, the Piston startling lineup is basically playing 3 on 5 with the Swede at PF. Gordon and Villaneuva certainly aren't shy about gunning from deep, even though the latter should be. Stuckey's jumper is a work in progress, at best. Bynum will also put up threes, and can hit the shot.

When the Sixers have the ball, there are definite mismatches. In fact, there are probably mismatches at every position. Brand against a rookie. Dalembert against a decrepit Ben Wallace. Thad against a guy who can't spell D. Iguodala is too strong for either Gordon or Stuckey, whoever they decide to put on him. Lou is too quick for either of them as well. The Sixers should be able to exploit whatever matchup they want, outside of Dalembert, whose advantage should present itself in offensive rebounds.

The Pistons are countering their relative dearth of talent by playing at a snail's pace. They're averaging only 88.3 possessions per game, dead last in the league.

I had this game down as a win before the season began, and I'm going to stick with that prediction. The Pistons are 2-4, having lost to OKC, MIL, TOR and ORL. They did have one solid win, over a depleted Magic team, but I just don't view them as a good team, especially not without Prince to put on Iguodala.

Here's a fun fact from the stats: Wallace + Jarebko = 9/20 from the line so far this season. That's 45%. If either of those guys gets anywhere near a dunk, just wrap him up.

Key to the Game: Defensive rebounding. Don't give the Pistons extra possessions.
If _______________ the Sixers will win: Stuckey + Bynum = less than 30 points.

This is our game thread, I'll be here throughout the game, so join me for the matinee.

Game 5 Advanced Stats and Reconciling Differences

2009-11-08T01:55:29Z

Be forewarned, this is one of the most geeky posts ever to be written on this blog. I spent way too much time this evening trying to figure out why my advanced stats didn't mesh with a few different sites. Check out the updated chart after the jump, and feel free to skip the part where I explain the differences in the numbers if you aren't into it.
]]> As you can see, the pace was way down last night, mostly because the Sixers were extending pressure at various times throughout the game, and neither team was in much of a hurry to run offense. The Sixers performed a little above their season average in offensive efficiency and held the Nets below their typical defensive efficiency rating, although you would've hoped they could've performed much better on the defensive end.

Two trends continue through the first five game: 1) When the Sixers beat their opponents in eFG, they win the game. When they don't, they lose. 2) The only area the Sixers are truly dominating right now is free throw rate. They're producing almost twice as much from the charity stripe as their opponents. This might be a mixed blessing stat. Getting to the line is obviously very good, and very important for this team. But on the other side, not sending the other team to the line could be a mixed bag. On the one hand, you aren't giving up free points. On the other hand, why aren't you fouling? Is it because you're playing sound fundamental defense, or is it because you're giving up a ton of uncontested shots? Too early to tell, but I'm leaning toward the latter.

And now for my battle with formulas. Here's the issue, I obtained the formula I use for possessions from Dean Oliver's book, Basketball On Paper. This is the same formula listed by basketball-reference.com, and this formula is the building block for Offensive and Defensive ratings as well. Somehow, the numbers I was coming up with, using the same formula they list in their glossary, were different than their numbers. I had 108.26 for offensive rating, they had 107.3. I had 111.4 for defensive rating, they had 110.4. I had 93.56 for pace, they had 94.4.

First, I checked, double checked and triple checked my formulas. I assumed I had simply made a mistake somewhere, maybe misplaced a parenthesis. That wasn't the problem, though. Then I thought maybe Basketball-Reference.com had made a mistake in their calculations, so I went to another source for pace and OR/DR ratings, Knickerblogger.net. Their results were exactly the same as B-R.com's.

At this point, I decided to look at methodology. The formula for possessions is basically an estimate, a fairly accurate estimate, but still, it's not perfect. Teams should have an equal number of possessions throughout the game (This is Oliver's assertion, but I think teams probably wind up a possession or two apart in most games, but that's neither here nor there), so what you do is run the formula for each team, then average the two numbers. They're never exactly the same. When I run my OR and DR numbers, I use this average number for both.

Let's use last night's Nets' game as an example:

The formula tells us the Sixers had 87.12 possessions, while the Nets had 90.46. The average of the two would be 88.79. To get the offensive rating for the Sixers, I then divide points scored (97) by possessions (88.79). This gives you the number of points per possession (1.0924). Then you multiply that number by 100 to get the offensive rating (109.24).

My first step in questioning methodology was to see if maybe B-R.com and Knickerblogger were using the raw formula for each team to determine the OR & DR. It can make a pretty big difference. If we use the number the formula gave us for the Sixers alone (87.12), their offensive rating would jump up to 111.34. So I plugged all of those numbers in to see if that made up for the difference. It did not.

At this point, I was completely at a loss, so instead of figuring out how what numbers they used to derive their formulas, I looked at their results and tried to reverse engineer the numbers. The only variable here is possessions. The points are a constant, no matter what math they used, the Sixers have still scored 517 points and allowed 532. So I used simple algebra to figure out how many possessions they were using. It looks like this:

Offensive rating

(517/x) x 100 = 107.3

Defensive rating

(532/x) x 100 = 110.4

The answer to both was roughly 481.9. Here are the total possessions using the various formulas, according to my math:

Sixers possessions: 473.15
Opponents possessions: 481.94
Average possessions: 477.55

So the mystery was solved, sort of. It looks like both B-R.com and Knickerblogger use the opponent's possessions to calculate OR & DR, although I'm not sure why. Unfortunately, there was still a problem with the pace calculation.

Pace is possessions per 48 minutes, rather than possessions per game. It's an important distinction when you have an overtime game in your sample. There's a convoluted formula for it, using total team minutes, but you can easily get pace by dividing possessions by the number of minutes in a game (53 for a single overtime game), then multiplying by 48. The Sixers possessions/game (using the average of pos. and op. pos.) is 95.51. Their pace is 93.36, by my math, because of the overtime game in New York. Unfortunately, both B-R.com and Knickerblogger had their pace at 94.4. When you break out the algebra again, you find out they're both using opponent's possessions to calculate pace, again, rather than the average.

I can't explain why they're doing this, but that's the only way I can come up with their numbers. Personally, I don't like the methodology at all and I'm going to stick with the average number of possessions going forward.

This is just a long-winded explanation of why my pace, offensive rating and defensive rating numbers differ from those at B-R.com and Knickerblogger.