Blue Chip Prospects

Phil Kessel Is Never One To Rub It In

2012-02-10T17:40:00.001-05:00

Scott Gomez: $7.4M well spent. If Phil Kessel made the same number of dollars per goal this season as Gomez, his $220.7M salary would singlehandedly put the Leafs over the cap 3.43 times.

Something's Gotta Give

2012-02-09T15:21:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, the Toronto Marlies played host to the Rochester Americans in a 4-3 Marlies win. The Marlies are now 6 points clear of the Americans for first in their division and are playing some really good hockey for coach Dallas Eakins.

In the win, both Joe Colborne and Matt Frattin scored goals and Korbinian Holzer added a pair of assists.

It's unfamiliar territory for a lot of Leaf fans, but we now find ourselves in a position where our farm team has developed some talent that needs to move beyond the AHL and start getting NHL minutes for the sake of their development.

Last week, we had a look at Nazem Kadri and how his stats compared against other forwards from his draft class and the draft class that preceded his. Our conclusion was that, so far, Kadri is right on track in his development however that same track also makes him a fulltime NHLer no later than the beginning of next season. If he's going to develop, the time is fast approaching where he'll need to get serious, fulltime NHL minutes.

Matt Frattin didn't look out of place during his time with the Maple Leafs, though he seemed to have been afflicted with whatever snake-bite-disease that has kept Nikolai Kulemin from scoring this season. Frattin has re-found his scoring touch with the Marlies, potting 9 goals in 15 games (and has been firing at an even more prolific rate lately).

Joe Colborne is also getting awfully close to being a fulltime NHL player. His scoring pace has slowed with a nagging injury and the loss of Joey Crabb, a forward with whom he'd developed some solid chemistry, but he's been a better player of late and he's the type of big bodied center that Leaf fans have been pleading for since Antropov was shipped to the Rangers.

The problem for each of these forwards is the number of fulltime NHL forwards that the Leafs have under contract for next year. The Leafs have six wingers under contract for next season and of those 6, only Mike Brown could be reasonably expected to skate on the team's fourth line. Add to the mix Nikolai Kulemin as a restricted free agent and it would seem that there are no spots up for grabs on the Leafs' top three lines.

At center, there's not much more flexibility. The Leafs have three centers under contract and Grabovski is an unrestricted free agent that the Leafs can ill afford to lose.

The forward situation is made even more complicated by the pending arrival of Brad Ross and Greg McKegg, two players who have put in very strong performances in the CHL this year and will be looking to play prominent roles on the Marlies next season in order to continue their development.

The Maple Leafs' defense, from an organizational standpoint, is an absolute logjam. The Leafs have six NHL defensemen under contract and Cody Franson as a pending RFA who they would undoubtedly like to retain. In the AHL, Korbinian Holzer has little left to prove and seems poised to make the jump to the NHL while Jesse Blacker and Keith Aulie are both getting close and would make perfectly adequate injury call-ups should the need arise.

That brings the Leafs' total of NHL-ready or nearly ready defensemen to 10.

While Burke will say that this is a good problem to have and that you need 10 NHL-calibre defensemen to win in the playoffs and that he loves competition throughout the system, there can be little doubt that there's some pressure on the Leafs' GM to find a balance between developing these kids to their peak potential and winning at the NHL level.

If I've said it once, I've said it a dozen times; Burke has done a fantastic job at building the Leafs' asset base but that's the easy part. The challenge for Burke moving forward will be determining what pieces are part of the Leafs' longterm core and where he can package players together to both upgrade the roster and create space for the young talent in the Leafs' system.

Phil Kessel: Chasing the Rocket

2012-02-08T20:49:00.004-05:00

Ooooooh Yeaaaa indeed, you giant blue bowl of addictive sugary drink mix.

Our boy Phil Kessel has officially arrived, and we here at BCP are drinking the proverbial Kool-Aid by the giant humanoid pitcher.

Kessel’s emergence this year as an elite offensive star has been an absolute delight to watch. He’s been nothing short of electric most nights this season. Dazzling us with an explosive first step and acceleration, while sealing the deal with his vaunted wrist shot from the wing (patent pending).

At 24, this season has been the perfect storm of circumstances for Kessel; with his health issues a distant memory, a growing chemistry with running mate Joffrey Lupul, and a developing maturity at both ends of the rink.

When the Leafs traded for Phil in September of 2009 some believed his success in the yellow and black was a direct result of lining up with skilled playmaker Marc Savard. Those cries have turned to fading whispers, as Kessel has proven this year he can generate his own chances.

Center Tyler Bozak doesn’t have the skill-set of a Savard, but his ability to forecheck and play consistenly down low has meshed perfectly with Kessel's speed and dynamic release.

Through 54 games he has amassed 30 goals 28 assists for a total of 58 points, while donning an impressive +7 rating. Kessel’s evolution has been a key cog in the Leaf machine which has moved to 7th in the Eastern Conference with 62 points, only 3 behind the Penguins for 6th and remarkably only 6 points behind the Bruins for first in the Northeast division.

Kessel is still very much in contention for a few individual NHL awards, including the Art Ross and League MVP. However, the one trophy many believe he’s most likely to take home is the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy, for the most goals at season’s end. His 30 thus far, sit behind only Steven Stamkos at 35. Malkin (29), Neal (28) and Toews (27) are within striking distance of the scoring title as well.

Of course as fans our excitement is rooted firmly in the thought of a memorable Leaf playoff run this spring. But the race Kessel finds himself in for a piece of coveted league hardware has become an intriguing sub plot. Many pundits had passed final judgement on Kessel after 4 full seasons in the NHL, labelling him a Thomas Vanek-like producer capable of only 35-40 goals in any given year. What he’s shown this year is that he has the potential to flirt with 50, and in doing so might be the league’s most prolific sniper of 2011-12.

Taking a look at the numbers:
Kessel:
30G, 54GP
0.56 goals per game

Stamkos:
35G, 52GP
0.67 goals per game

Assuming for a moment that Stamkos will continue his pace set through the first half, he’ll finish with 55 goals. Meaning that for Kessel to beat him, finishing with 56 goals, he would need bulge the twine 26 times over the remaining 28 games. A per game average of 0.93. No easy task, but alas there is hope – Kessel has a number of factors working in his favour.

Firstly, the Lightning have struggled this year, currently sitting 12th in the east with 51 points. If they’re unable to right the ship there are rumours of them selling pieces like Kubina, Malone, and Moore at the deadline. If they are out of the playoff race down the stretch you have to wonder if Stamkos will maintain his goal scoring pace while playing meaningless hockey in March.

Secondly, Kessel enjoys playing in Toronto -- heck, he loves it. Scoring 21 of his 30 goals thus far on home ice. The Leafs don’t necessarily have a home-heavy schedule down the stretch, but they do play 13 more games on home ice, meaning Kessel will have plenty of opportunity to continue padding his stats within the friendly confines of the ACC.

If Stamkos is unable to maintain his current pace and slows slightly to finish with nearer to 50 goals Kessel will have a real chance at the title. 20 goals in 28 games is entirely possible for a player known in the past for sublime scoring streaks.

Since being drafted 5th overall in the 2006 entry draft Kessel has taken criticism for being a one dimensional player, with the ability to score, but do little else for his team. It’s fitting that, in a season when Phil has rededicated himself to the defensive end and is developing a more complete 3 zone game, that he is also producing the best offensive stats of his career.

It‘s still unclear whether the Leafs will ultimately challenge for the big trophy in this year’s playoffs as it will undoubtedly be a dramatic stretch of hockey in the coming 2 months. What we do know is that as the year draws to a close Phil Kessel has a legitimate chance to take home a trophy that will forever end any and all discussion of 'The Trade', the draft picks, and Tyler Seguin. Pass me the Kool-Aid, fellow Leaf fans - I’ll drink to that.

Jake Gardiner's Chances At A Calder Nomination

2012-02-07T20:27:00.000-05:00

The last Maple Leaf to win a major NHL award was Doug Gilmour's Selke win in 1992-93 (shout out to @Bambooshirt and @gottabe_KD). That makes it nearly a two-decade drought for one of the league's proudest franchises.

This year, Phil Kessel has put his name into the hat in the Hart trophy race and I'm sure that should the Leafs make the playoffs, he'll garner some attention. Joffrey Lupul will have as good a chance as anyone at the Masterton but any trophy that Jason Blake can win is not a trophy that I'm willing to consider a 'major' one.

The Leafs' best hope this season may actually be Jake Gardiner in the Calder race.

Looking at the Calder favourites up to this point in the season, Gardiner will probably have a little work to do.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has 35 points so far this season but missed some time with a shoulder injury. He left last night's game with another shoulder injury and with this season looking like the Oilers will be continuing their cherished tradition of June lottery picks, RNH may be encouraged to take it easy in order to avoid longterm shoulder problems -- the Oilers have been through this once with Hemsky after all.

Adam Henrique has had an impressive start to the season with 34 points and is a very respectable +7. Henrique's top two linemates according to icetime are Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk so he's certainly been put in a position to succeed by the NJ coaching staff. Having said that, he had to produce to maintain that spot and he's been able to do so.

Matt Read, Cody Hodgson, and Gabriel Landeskog have 32, 30, and 27 respectively and all have a positive +/- . These five players look to be Gardiner's strongest competition heading into the final third of the season.

Gardiner leads NHL defensemen in scoring with 2 goals and 15 assists and is +10 so far this season. He's played a prominent role on the Leafs' defense and is 5th on the entire team in total icetime this season. That's a lot of responsibility for a first year defenseman.

Much like Henrique, Gardiner has been placed in a position to succeed by the team's coaching staff. Heading into tonight's game, Gardiner was 14th in terms of quality of competition and has a 55.5% offensive zone start, which is the highest on the team.

Ultimately, it's rare for defensemen to get serious consideration for the Calder trophy and Gardiner's statistics aren't so far clear of Adam Larsson (16 points) or Justin Faulk (11 points) that he'd be likely to get much attention were the award voted on today.

With 29 games remaining in the regular season, Jake Gardiner still has time to make up some ground on the forward group who are currently ahead of him. He has all the tools to make a serious push to close out the season and we shouldn't be surprised in the least to see his name make an appearance on some ballots at year's end.

Stick tap to 'not norm ullman' over at PPP for the topic

The Man in the Middle: Who the Heck is Tyler Bozak?

2012-02-06T17:14:00.000-05:00

Things shouldn't have been easy for Tyler Bozak this season.

On July 2nd, centerman Tim Connolly signed a 2-year contract with the Leafs worth $9.5M, Mikhail Grabovski was coming off a career year with the Leafs and was called the team's most valuable and consistent player by his coach during his end of season press conference, and Bozak had posted an unspectacular 32 points in 82 games.

The 25 year old should have been a third line player and his -29 rating last season seemed to suggest that even that spot might be in jeopardy.

"In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switerzland they had brotherly love; they had five hundred years of democracy and peace, and what did they produce? The cuckoo clock." -Orson Welles, The Third Man

Adversity can bring out the best in people -- it certainly seems to have had that effect on Bozak.

Expectations for Bozak heading into this season were modest, at best: Win faceoffs, play well defensively, chip in some points where possible. Few, if any, were counting on the kind of production he's given us thus far.

In 43 games this season, Bozak has put up 30 points (just 2 shy of his season totals from last year) and is a +6. Granted, his most common linemates have been Kessel and Lupul, both of whom are in the top 10 in NHL scoring this season, but Bozak's ability to play up in the lineup has given Ron Wilson the ability to spread his scoring through three lines.

Despite skating down in the lineup, Connolly is 5th among regular Leaf forward in points per 60 minutes of icetime.

As much as Leaf fans lament the absence of a true first line center, the Leafs have had some strong production from the trio of Grabovski, Connolly, and Bozak.

Bozak's basic statistics look eerily similar to flavour-of-the-week Sam Gagner's. Despite Gagner's 11 points in 2 games, he has only 3 points more than Bozak and has played 2 more games. Is Gagner a better player with a much higher ceiling? Yeah, he is. Is he so much better that we should be trying to build a package of futures in our minds that might entice Edmonton to part with Gagner? Probably not worth the effort.

The truth is that with Bozak, the Leafs are actually reasonably deep down the middle of the ice. He's a solid 2/3 center who can be effective up or down in the lineup and he does a lot of the little things well. With another season at a cap hit of only $1.5M, he's the kind of cost-effective player that every lineup needs.

This year's Leaf roster has had more surprises than the Senators have season ticket holders and Bozak's strong performance thus far has to be considered one of them.

The Return of James Reimer

2012-02-05T16:57:00.002-05:00

He’s back, back again. Yes, James Reimer is back. Tell a friend.

To say that James Reimer’s career with the Maple Leafs has been a whirlwind would be a dis-service to whirlwinds. Reimer, or Optimus, as I prefer to call him – has experienced all the euphoric highs, and devastating lows that playing in the Toronto sports market offers.

However, with back-to-back shutouts over the streaking Penguins on Wednesday, and a five to nothing trouncing of the effeminately haired Senators Saturday night, we at BCP are declaring that the 23 year old net minder is officially “back”.

While his return may lack the drama of Jordan’s triumphant comeback from the obscurity of minor AA baseball, or Lemieux’s return after a 3 year layoff in Pittsburgh, there is cause to celebrate as a Leaf fan. Reimer has had to battle for every second of playing time since being drafted back in 2006. To truly appreciate the journey he’s taken, and what the last 2 games could represent, let’s look back at the history of Reimer as a Leaf:

June 24, 2006The Leafs select Reimer in the 4th round of the entry draft, 99th overall, from the Red Deer Rebels (WHL). James flew almost completely under the radar in his draft class, as the Toronto media focused their reporting on the more highly touted prospects taken earlier through rounds 1 to 3. Jiri Tlusty was taken 13th overall, followed by Nikolai Kulemin (what a steal) at 44. There were 10 goalies taken ahead of Reimer, including Jonathan Bernier, Jonas Enroth, Steve Mason, and Seymon Varlamov.

December 28, 2008Reimer records his first career AHL win for the Toronto Marlies, beating the Manitoba Moose 3-2.

October 13, 2009The first official call up to the big club, as Reimer backs up Joey MacDonald in a game against the Colorado Avalanche. The call up was the result of an injury to starting goalie Vesa Toskala, sadly for Leaf fans, it was not career ending. Reimer didn’t end up seeing any time in the game, and was subsequently sent back to the Marlies.

December 20, 2010In a game against the Atlanta Thrashers Reimer makes his NHL debut, stepping in for the pulled Jonas Gustavsson. At this time Reimer was almost a complete unknown to Leaf fans, having been 5th on the depth chart heading into the 2010-11 season. The initial development plan laid out by team management was to keep him in the AHL for the entire season.

January 1, 2011The first win of his NHL career – 5 to 1 over the Ottawa Senators. Reimer was far from the official number one at this point, battling an aging Jean Sebastien Giguere and an inconsistent Jonas Gustavsson.

March 27, 2011I purchased my Optimus Reim blue T-shirt from a sporting store in the mall. This has nothing to do with Reimers development as a Leaf, or his career arc – it’s just an awesome nickname and an awesome shirt.

April 9, 2011The 2010-11 season drew to a close with a 4 to 1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens. By this time Reimer was considered the goalie of the future in Toronto. His numbers to close out the year were consistent, finishing with a 2.60 GAA and a .921 save percentage, however critics wondered how he would fare once NHL shooters were given time to study his tendencies.

June 9, 2011The Leafs sign Reimer to a 3 year, $5.4 million dollar contract, carrying an annual cap hit of $1.8 million.

October 22, 2011In a game against the rival Canadiens, Reimer is clipped in the head by winger Brian Gionta as he cut across the crease. There is no penalty on the play and Reimer is said to have sustained a head/neck injury, and is listed as day-to-day.

November 9, 2011Reimer remains out with what some are calling ‘concussion-like symptoms’ and there is speculation that he has had a number of concussions in the past. Toronto Star reporter Dave Feschuk decides to call Reimer’s Mom for further information, sparking a media frenzy, and allowing Brain Burke to get angry on camera – always entertaining.

December 3, 2011He returns to the crease against the Boston Bruins, allowing 4 goals on 30 shots in the loss. This is the first game in what would be a string of inconsistent outings which resulted in the team turning to Gustavsson through the holidays and into January.

A lot of critics are citing Reimer’s increased confidence as the source of this recent turnaround, and consecutive shutouts. I hate to use the word “confidence” when describing hockey players because I feel like it diminishes the professionalism and talent they possess when we agree that emotional fluctuations in their confidence can have a dramatic impact on their ability on the ice.

One of Reimer's major issues this season has been his performance (or the team's performance) on the penalty kill which had decimated an otherwise perfectly adequate save percentage. With the Leafs' PK now performing admirably, Reimer has achieved the kinds of results that many Leaf fans expected from him.

Something certainly has clicked for Reimer over the past 2 games, but I don’t think it’s psychological. I believe we’re watching the evolution of a goalie who is only 23 years of age, and still developing as a pro. I hope this is the beginning of a second have surge akin to the heroics Reimer displayed to close out last year. If he can return to that form, and steal games in the manner in which he’s capable, maybe, just maybe, we’ll punch our ticket to the big dance this spring.

The Battle of Ontario Has Its Champion!

2012-02-03T20:22:00.002-05:00

Mikhail Grabovski. Slayer of pineapples, smiter of Kostitsyns, and all-around bad-ass dude.

He doesn't take this rivalry lightly and neither should you.

Far From The [Maddening] Crowd: Why We All Need To Relax On Nazem Kadri

2012-02-03T16:35:00.000-05:00

The word 'bust' has been thrown around a little too liberally of late.

Maybe the 2003 Draft Class has just elevated everyone's expectations beyond all reason. Maybe Luke Schenn having an incredible rookie season as a 5th overall pick changed our definition of what it means for a draft pick to have succeeded. Whatever the reason, our heart of our shoes, we Leaf fans can't seem to give Kadri his dues.

Now granted, Kadri hasn't outperformed some of the players from his draft class. Tavares, Duchene, and Evander Kane have all established themselves as fulltime NHLers and all play prominent roles on their respective teams. Let's remember though, that these players were selected before Kadri and there's a reason that was the case.

If we look at the forwards selected more immediately in Kadri's range, we have Brayden Schenn (5th), Nazem Kadri (7th), Scott Glennie (8th), Magnus Paajarvi (10th), and Zack Kassian (13th). None of these players has truly made their mark on their respective teams up to this point.

I wanted to look at Kadri's numbers across a bit of a larger cross section though so I decided to pull out the players from the preceding year's draft and look at only their first three seasons' production. The players from 2008's draft were Nikita Filatov (6th), Colin Wilson (7th), Mikkel Boedker (8th), Josh Bailey (9th), Cody Hodgson (10th), and Kyle Beach (11th). Once again, I've subtracted this season's production out of the numbers. Also, keep in mind that there are still about 30 games (give or take) left in this season so I felt that averaged stats would be a bit more instructive than the raw numbers.

Before we get started I'd like to point out that neither Scott Glennie nor Kyle Beach have played in the NHL yet so they wont appear in any of the graphs but keep them in mind when comparing Kadri against his peers.

When looking at points-per-game between the 11 players included, Kadri places 3rd overall and first in his draft class.

Of the top five players in points-per-game, Kadri is the only player to have played fewer than 100 games in his first three seasons.

If we control for icetime, Kadri finds himself squarely in the middle of the pack.

Above are the points per 60 minutes of icetime figures for Kadri's closest comparables, taken 3 years after they were drafted. Only Kassian has better numbers than Kadri among players from the 2009 draft class. While Paajarvi has struggled mightily this season, his p/60 numbers during the 2010-11 season were right about where Kadri's are now.

What can we glean from this information? First of all, I would argue that we can say that Kadri is far from a 'bust' or, at the very least, he's no more of a bust than all the forwards taken around him in the 2008 and 2009 drafts. Secondly, so far he seems to have been the right choice for the Leafs when they made their 7th overall selection in 2009.

Hardy wrote that, "a resolution to avoid an evil is seldom framed till the evil is so far advanced as to make avoidance impossible." Leaf Nation needs to take a pill when it comes to Kadri's development and avoid labelling him as anything other than a prospect at this point. He's not a 'bust'. He's not a 'stud'. If you've made up your mind to give up on Kadri, I think you'd be making a big mistake.

The moral of the story is that prospects take time to develop. As Leaf fans, we really shouldn't be souring on Kadri so soon because objectively he's right on track.

Sam Gagner: Also Not A Fan of -32

2012-02-03T12:19:00.001-05:00

With people wondering where Sam Gagner's 8-point outburst came from, we here at BCP have our own theory...

Nazem Kadri: 7th Overall and a Bust?

2012-02-02T20:53:00.003-05:00

There are few things I remember more vividly than the events that transpired on June 26th, 2009. I was at my then girlfriend’s house trying to convince her that watching the new Sex and City movie on DVD was not nearly as important as watching Leafs' future unfold in what was certain to be a pivotal moment in the looming rebuild.

We argued a bit, and she begrudgingly went upstairs, allowing me to the watch the draft on the couch – which is subsequently where I slept. I did, sadly, see Sex and City later that week – I’ll never understand why Carrie took Big back, leaving her at the altar, proving that he wasn’t the man she had built him up to be throughout the series. Sigh, but I digress...

I called up Curt S, who was then only known as “Curt”. We talked over our predictions as to how the draft would transpire, with both of use agreeing that the odds of Duchene, Tavares , Hedman, or Kane slipping all the way down to 7 (when the Leafs first picked) were slim to none. Our goal, like that of most of Leaf Nation, was to somehow trade up and choose Brayden Schenn, uniting him with older brother Luke.

At the close of the 4th pick we had sadly missed out on the top tier of draftees, then Schenn went to the Los Angeles Kings at 5. As pick 7 approached it was agreed unanimously that Magnus Parjavi-Svensson (then known as Svensson-Pajaarvi) from Sweden was the best option left on the board. His size and speed would be a great addition to our top 9, and many scouts had compared him (unfairly) to a young Peter Forsberg.

Brian Burke stepped up to the mic, confident as ever, to announce Toronto’s 1st round selection. He went on to choose Nazem Kadri of the London Knights. I suddenly heard a loud crash on the other end of the phone, and it went silent. I tried calling back a couple times, and eventually got through to Curt. He has thrown his cell phone in disgust against a nearby wall, and needed a few moments to collect himself – he really wanted Magnus – I think it was around this time we decided to start a blog.

Kadri was sold to us as a future top line center, possessing deft hands, a natural ‘edge’ and competitiveness that more than compensated for what he lacked in stature. Ron Wilson famously said that Nazem would one day be a 100 point player in the NHL – the obvious joke now being if he was referring to Kadri's ‘career’ total. The offensive stats from his years in the OHL were sublime, and had many a Leaf fans penciling him in on the top line for a decade to come.

OHL2007-2008: 68GP, 25G, 40A, 65Pts (Kitchener Rangers)
2008-2009: 56GP, 25G, 43A, 78Pts (London Knights)
2009-2010: 56GP, 35G, 58A, 93Pts (London Knights)

The issue with Kadri is twofold; stemming from both his inability to find a role in Leafs' everyday line-up, and the draft class in which he was taken.

The crop of players who have emerged from the 2009 class is a virtual who’s who of young stars in the league. The players below were taken before Kadri at 7:

1. John Tavares

2. Victor Hedman
3. Matt Duchene
4. Evander Kane
5. Brayden Schenn
6. Oliver Ekman-Larsson

It’s hard to avoid the comparisons of Nazem to the players listed above. With Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, and Kane all making significant contributions to their teams.
A look at some of the notable players taken after 7 reveals that there was significant value to be had later in the draft. This raises the obvious question; in hindsight, was Kadri overvalued by Burke and his scouts?

9. Jared Cowan
10. Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson
11. Ryan Ellis
13. Zach Kassian
14. Dimitri Kulikov
24. Marcus Johansson

Shootouts have allowed Kadri to show off his fantastic puck handling ability. There are few if any on the team that can match his level of pure skill. Unfortunately, this high skill hasn’t resulted in production at even strength or the power play.

Kadri has looked out of place in the NHL game, with defensemen able to push him off the puck far too easily, taking advantage of his 185 pound frame. The flashes of offensive flare have been few and far between. Often he’ll group together one or two productive shifts, generating chances in the offensive zone, only to disappear for the remainder of the game. Despite mixing and matching of linemates, he’s never truly gotten comfortable in the top 9. The result being multiple call ups and demotions to the Marlies.

It’s my opinion that year 3 of a players development is when he has to demonstrate he has the ability to be a pro. It just doesn’t seem to be there with Nazem. For whatever the reason, Toronto hasn’t been a fit for him or his style of game.

Having said this, he certainly has value as a trade chip, given his skill set and draft pedigree. The time has come to package him in a trade for an asset that can help us in the here and now. Allowing another team to try and figure what exactly Nazem needs to be a successful NHLer. The time has come to call him a bust in Toronto.

Curt runs our twitter account @bcphockeyblog but he loves telling me all of the awful shit you guys have to say about me. So, Kadri lovers, give me your worst!

Love in the Time of Trade-Season: Setting Expectations to Ease the Pain

2012-01-31T14:46:00.000-05:00

"I think this trade deadline can only be a disappointment for me"

"You'll have to define success beforehand -- condition yourself to be happy with a given return."

The preceding was an excerpt from a conversation a friend and I had this morning. He makes a good point.

When it comes to this trade deadline, it seems that all my favourite Leafs are the ones whose names are constantly being mentioned. Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, and Carl Gunnarsson would all find themselves solidly in my top-five favourite players on this team. Luke Schenn is a guy that I've liked since he was a Kelowna Rocket.

If the scuttlebutt is to be believed, none of these players are safe.

Inspired by this conversation, and some of the commentary in PPP's From The Branches, I decided to do a little preparatory therapy for what seems like the inevitability that some of my favourite Leafs are unlikely to be Leafs much longer.

What return would be acceptable to me for the Leafs who are on the block?

Luke Schenn

"Wisdom comes to us when it can no longer do any good." There is no player in the Leafs' lineup where I feel this is more true than in the case of Luke Schenn. Since being drafted 5th overall in 2008, Luke Schenn has both tantalized and frustrated Leaf fans. At times, he looks like he may be developing into an elite shutdown defenseman and at other times he looks too slow (both physically and mentally).

Despite the frustration that many rightly feel toward Schenn's play of late, he still has the chance to develop into one of the league's better defensive defensemen. Defense, in the NHL, is a position with a shallow learning curve.

Acceptable Return: I would be satisfied if Schenn landed a young top-six forward with the potential to grow into a first line player. IE) James van Riemsdyk, Chris Stewart

Clarke MacArthur

I know that the advanced stats love this guy; I just don't. Do I think he's been poorly used on the Leafs this season? Yeah. Do I think he could pull a Versteeg-in-Florida after he's dealt? Absolutely. I just don't feel like MacArthur is a much better player than a Matt Frattin and I feel like his cap-hit would be better used elsewhere.

Acceptable Return: A solid prospect. IE) Ryan Ellis OR a second round pick and a secondary prospect IE) Philip McRae

Mikhail Grabovski

As things stand today, I would say Grabovski is my favourite Leaf. My fear of the possibility of his being traded is what prompted this post. He's the kind of player that every playoff team is seemingly looking to add and with the thin forward market, it seems like Grabo could likely fetch a good return.

Acceptable Return: It may be unrealistic, but I would be disappointed if Grabovski didn't fetch a similar package to the one Edmonton got last deadline for Dustin Penner. If the Leafs move Grabo for less than a first rounder and a reasonably solid prospect, I will probably do a lot of swearing.

Nikolai Kulemin

Nikolai Kulemin is another player that I really don't want the Leafs to move. His production is down across the board this season after a stellar 2010-11 campaign and moving him now feels an awful lot like selling low. Kulemin is an RFA at the end of the year, so he's controllable, and he's the type of player that can play down in your lineup if he's struggling offensively.

Acceptable Return: Given his modest production this season, there probably isn't a one-for-one package out there that would satisfy me. The only way I would be comfortable moving the young Russian would be as part of a package for a top-line forward and I really don't know if that player is actually on the market this trade deadline.

Carl Gunnarsson

Gunnarsson has been a catalyst on the Leafs' backend this year. It seems like whoever he's been paired with has raised the level of their game and I don't think that's a coincidence. Gunnarsson has been incredibly reliable and has been called, "one of the most underrated defensemen in the league." He's solid in his own zone, and provides a little offense as well which makes him probably the Leafs' only defenseman that defies the traditional 'offensive defenseman' or 'defensive defenseman' monikers.

Acceptable Return: Like Kulemin, there probably isn't a one-for-one deal that would satisfy me. If he were part of a package for a top-line player then I wouldn't be overly disappointed but barring that, I'd hate to see him go.

Cody Franson

After struggling to get into the lineup early in the season and earning Ron Wilson's ire for being frustrated about it, Franson has started to play some very solid hockey of late. He's an offense first guy, to be sure, but he puts up some pretty respectable hit totals as well and has the large frame that a lot of teams look for in their d-men.

Acceptable Return: As much as I think Franson has some pretty solid potential, I also recognize that the Leafs' defense is pretty crowded at the moment. Given the choice between shipping Franson or Gunnarsson, I wouldn't hesitate to move Franson. If Franson moved for a second round pick, I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

Matthew Lombardi

Lombardi is a speedster and is widely considered to be a good defensive forward. He carries with him a pretty hefty price tag however and with the Leafs' lack of cap flexibility heading into the offseason and Frattin looking NHL-ready, Lombardi might be a prime candidate for a salary dump.

Acceptable Return: You'd obviously like to get some kind of value for Lombardi but I honestly wouldn't care if someone just took his salary off our books for next season. A fourth round pick would be great.

Nazem Kadri

Nobody seems to illicit such divergent opinions as Nazem Kadri. My own opinion is that he's rarely been put in a position to succeed in Toronto and a change of scenery would likely do him a world of good. I think he will likely be a productive top-six forward next season but it feels like a coin-flip as to whether that will take place in Toronto or elsewhere.

Acceptable Return: If you're moving a prospect like Kadri, he's going to be a part of a package to land an impact player. There's no chance Burke would move him for an aging rental like Hemsky, but an opposing GM is never going to trade a van Riemsdyk-type for Kadri straight up. Suffice to say, if Kadri goes anywhere, I'm pretty sure that I'll like the return as I'm confident Burke wouldn't undersell him.

Anywhere that you think I'm out to lunch? Check us out at @bcphockeyblog and let us know where we went wrong.

In Search of Lost Scoring: Where Has The Leafs' Secondary Scoring Gone?

2012-01-30T13:21:00.000-05:00

The beginning of the 2011-12 season was a euphoric time for Leaf fans. We had Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul and Dion Phaneuf all lighting it up offensively, James Reimer playing well in net, and consequently, we found ourselves at the top of the NHL standings. It was easy to be happy, but also easy to overlook some of the team's deficiencies.

"Happiness is beneficial for the body, but it is grief that develops the powers of the mind."

While 'grief' might be hyperbole for the position we presently find ourselves in, the fall from the conference penthouse to the fringes of playoff contention has certainly been cause for reflection in Leaf Nation.

Danny Gray and JP Nikota recently released Leafs Nation's inaugural podcast where they touched briefly on the Leafs' problem with secondary scoring. One look at the team's scoring leaders shows that there's a definite gap between the leaders and the pack.

Lupul and Kessel currently sit at 52 and 51 points, respectively. Behind them, Grabovski has 32 points. The next forward on the list is Tyler Bozak who has precisely half of Bozak's total. It's clear that this team needs top-six help.

After Grabovski, Kessel, and Lupul, the team's top-six gets murky. Kulemin has struggled offensively this season, MacArthur has shown flashes of strong play but has found himself bounced around the lineup, Connolly has been bounced out of the top-six in favour of Bozak at times. In short, we seem to have a lot of hybrid 2/3 line guys, but very little clarity with regards to who we should lean on when Kessel and Lupul's production slows down.

Looking at the chart above, it's apparent that there are two players who are carrying the offensive load. There are two ways of looking at the information above. The first would be, "even with such great production from Kessel and Lupul, we're still only a playoff bubble team." Conversely, one might say, "even with Kulemin, Connolly, and MacArthur underachieving, we're still a playoff bubble team."

The conclusions, however, are obvious: The Leafs need more production from players not named Kessel or Lupul. This production could easily come internally as Connolly, MacArthur, and Kulemin have all shown flashes of strong second-line production. Having said this, I'm sure Burke would feel a lot more comfortable if he were able to add a player with a Connolly-esque track record, rather than depending on someone with Kulemin's comparatively brief offensive resume.

Ultimately, there's been a great waiting game for the Leafs' secondary players to produce. Grabovski has come around of late and has put up some points when the team has needed him to, but he's been alone in this regard. With the trade deadline looming, how much longer can we afford to wait?

"It comes so soon, the moment when there is nothing left to wait for."

The Man Crush: Leaf Edition

2012-01-25T21:09:00.002-05:00

Maybe it’s the back-to-back wins over the New York Islanders this week.

Maybe it’s because we’re sitting tied for 6th in the Eastern Conference standings with 55 points heading into the All Star break.

Heck, maybe it’s the fact the ink has officially dried on Katie Perry’s divorce papers.

Whatever it is, something’s in the air today, and it has me feeling a little friskier than usual towards the good old boys of the Toronto Maple Leafs . The Buds have given us plenty to cheer about over the past week and we at BCP are riding the euphoric wave.

In keeping with the spirit of good vibrations, we’re bringing back 'The Man Crush': an All-Leaf edition. For those of you unfamiliar with the intricate details of the hockey Man Crush allow me to explain (or you can check out the original article here.)

Remember the way you felt towards that cute girl who you sat behind you in grade 8 geography? Or how you went to the theatre five times to see Cameron Diaz in 'The Mask'? Think of your emotions the first time you saw Britney Spears in “Toxic” (anyone reading this who hasn’t seen the video – You Tube – you’re welcome)

Of course the Man Crush differs widely from these classic feelings towards the girl next door, or the scantily-clad Hollywood starlet of the moment but the symptoms are the same. Or... at least... some of them are.

The Man Crush is something special shared between you and your favourite hockey players. It’s the aw shucks charm of a Colby Armstrong, mixed with the raw intensity of Captain Phaneuf, topped off with Mike Brown's moustache. It’s the feeling you get when Phil Kessel drops 2 goals and an assist while turning two categories in your head-to-head fantasy league. It’s the wry smile you crack every time you see a Torontonian on the street proudly donning his or her blue Optimus Reim T-Shirt.

We’re deep into January and the playoffs are within reach; the time is right for a little Leaf Lovin’. Without further adieu, our top 5 Man Crushes of the moment:

Jonas Gustavsson
With a record of 7-3-1 in January the Monster may finally be living up to his mighty nickname. Guilty of chasing pucks, and trying too hard to make saves (if that’s possible) early in his Leaf tenure, his game has become more calm and consistent of late. I’ve liked this guy since Burkie hauled him over to North American soil from Sweden 3 years ago. If you can grow your hair out a bit longer, and lead us deep into the playoffs you’ll have a chance at 1st spot on this list, Jonas.

Nikolai Kulemin
The absolute heart and soul of this hockey team (Ed. Note: Grabovski) – and I defy anyone to tell me differently (Ed. Note: Seriously, it's Grabovski). His 5 goals and 15 assists are certainly not awe inspiring, but he brings his best effort every single shift. There isn’t a player on the roster that has his combination of size, speed, hands, and forechecking ability. He will make his presence on the stat sheet known eventually; in the meantime, enjoy everything else he brings to the table. Besides, Gretzky once scored 9 goals in a season, and everyone seems to think he was pretty good.

Mike Brown
Perhaps the only player in the league (outside of George Parros) man enough to rock the 1970s style moustache. As the Leafs' resident tough guy he deserves a spot on this list. While he may not be a heavyweight in the truest sense, he can chuck knuckles with the best of 'em. When his face comes across the jumbotron at the ACC I can’t help myself from blushing – the true mark of a stud.

Jake Gardiner
I’ve been waiting for his nickname of “Jake the Snake” to stick, based on his ability to skate the puck out of trouble in the defensive zone -- this guy is greasy! How much do the now rebuilding Ducks regret losing this blue chipper and that other guy that came with him (Joffrey Lupul, 52 points, 49 games) for a bag of used pucks... Oh, and Francois Beauchemin.

Phil Kessel
Can we finally stop with the Seguin comparisons? Is it officially over? I believe that when all is said and done Phil Kessel will sit shoulder to shoulder with men like Gilmour, Sundin, and Keon in the pantheon of Maple Leaf greats. He has been nothing short of extraordinary this season. With 26 goals at the break and a renewed commitment to the defensive zone, he has elevated himself into the game’s elite. Most crushes fizzle out over time but, at 24, the best is yet to come with Phil.

The Cowboys may have their cheerleaders, the Raptors their dance pack, and Edmonton their Oiler Octane. But we Leaf fans, we have only our guys, and I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Go Leafs Go.

Hit us up on Twitter at @bcphockeyblog and fill us in on your Maple Leaf Man Crushes

The Brief Wondrous Life of Clarke MacArthur

2012-01-24T14:10:00.000-05:00

Clarke MacArthur joined the Leafs with very little fanfare in the summer of 2010 after the Atlanta Thrashers walked away from an arbitration award of $2.4M, thereby making him an unrestricted free agent. Burke then signed MacArthur that summer for a relatively modest $1.1M salary.

Having posted 35 points the previous season while splitting time between the Buffalo Sabres and the Atlanta Thrashers, there were few who could have predicted the season MacArthur would soon have.

MacArthur came spinning into the lineup like a whirling dervish and developed great chemistry with Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin. The trio soon became the Leafs' de facto top unit and MacArthur's 62 points were second to only Phil Kessel among Leaf skaters.

This strong campaign landed MacArthur a 2-year contract at a cap hit of $3.25M per season.

Brian Burke candidly and publicly discussed the negotiations with MacArthur, stating that it was very difficult to determine what a fair offer would be. While MacArthur's 62-point campaign was impressive, he was by no means an established 60-point player. The short term of the contract was an opportunity for MacArthur to assert himself as a point producing top-six forward and then to cash in when the deal expired.

This year has been a tale of two seasons for MacArthur. The first story is one of a player who has failed to produce offensively. His 21 points in 41 games played are well behind the pace he set last season and he has found himself skating on the team's third or fourth line with increasing regularity.

If we look at the advanced statistics however, we see a bit of a different story. MacArthur is third on the Leafs in goals/60 minutes of icetime, behind only Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul. His Corsi number is also reasonably good (though it is padded to an extent by favourable zone starts). When controlling for quality of competition, his Corsi is 5th among the Leafs' regular forwards. In short, these numbers tell the story of a player who seems to be getting the job done.

Now, I'm generally a believer in advanced statistics (when properly used) and I think that they've come a long way in recent years thanks to some great work (particularly by the folks at BehindtheNet) but I try to read them with at least a measure of skepticism. The truth is, hockey isn't conducive to the kind of sabremetric analysis that baseball is. Our game doesn't have the same precise and linear units of measurement. In baseball, a single is the same as another single. In hockey, all shots are not created equal. Also, a batter is solely responsible for his result against a given pitcher (with minor exceptions for remarkable defensive plays, &c.). In hockey, shots, goals, and almost any other measure of production that we've created, measures the output produced by a 5-man unit. We try to control for these things wherever possible, but again, it isn't as cut and dry as baseball.

Clarke MacArthur, for me, is a player where the advanced statistics are creating a bit of a mirage. In watching the games, I haven't seen much in MacArthur that leads me to believe he's a top-6 forward this year. That doesn't mean that I don't think he's a reasonably good player, but I view him as more of a 'tweener' than an actual top-6 player. He doesn't seem to be particular great at anything (skating, shooting, passing) but does everything reasonably well. Those are my opinions, based on observation, and I'd encourage everyone to read those at least as skeptically as the underlying advanced stats.

So with rumours swirling that MacArthur's time with the Leafs is likely drawing to an end and no lesser name than Darren Dreger fanning the flames on TSN radio, we're forced to ask why MacArthur has to be traded. The Leafs find themselves in a position where they have very little cap space heading into next season and some clear holes in the lineup that need to be filled. If keeping Clarke MacArthur were the difference between losing Mikhail Grabovski or retaining him, then I would drive MacArthur to the airport myself.

Ultimately, that might be what it comes down to. MacArthur is a good player, and would certainly be a useful addition for a team with more cap flexibility than the Leafs but right now, he doesn't fit into our payroll structure.

The question that we're left with then is whether the deal with Nashville in the summer where Toronto acquired Lombardi and Franson was worth the cost of MacArthur?

The Untouchables: Identifying The Leafs' Core Before The Deadline

2012-01-23T16:14:00.000-05:00

They say that good things come to those who wait and Leaf fans have been waiting a long time. After 6 seasons without playoff hockey, the Leafs find themselves a handful of points out of a playoff spot with a team talented enough to make up that ground. The Toronto Maple Leafs' rebuild is well under way but that's not to be confused with 'finished'.

Since arriving in Toronto, Brian Burke has made the team younger, faster, and more talented than the version of the team he inherited. He's added core pieces to the team and improved the pool of prospects. With these factors in mind, I've had the utmost confidence in Burke since he took over the team but recently I've come to realize that this was the easy part and I've found myself wondering if I've given "him credit for too much cleverness. My impression was that he's just another blundering American."

The quote above is from Michael Curtiz's 'Casablanca' and is in reference to Rick Blaine. In the end, as it turns out, Rick was due all the 'credit' Captain Renault had heaped on him and that's certainly what I'm hoping for in Burke's case as well.

The real heavy lifting is about to start for Brian Burke. He has some decent prospects, some depth at every position, and a couple of players who could easily be perennial All-Stars. The challenge for Burke and his management team is deciding which of these players are worth keeping as core pieces moving forward.

At center, the Leafs have Connolly, Bozak, and Colborne all signed for next season and Grabovski poised to be a UFA at the end of the year. It's fairly clear that one of these four will need to move on and while Grabovski seems the obvious 'odd man out' given his contract status, I would argue he's also our best center.

Grabovski is a player who can reliably be counted on for mid-50s points and strong two-way play. He's been the Leafs most consistent player over the last year-and-a-half and he's a guy that I think we should fight hard to keep.

Colborne certainly has some upside but probably tops out as a second-line center. He's big, he's a good passer, and he skates well for his size but he's still quite young and isn't, at this point, an NHL-calibre top-six center. He's a guy that should stick around unless he's packaged for an impact, top-six forward.

Similarly, Nazem Kadri has the tools to be a top-six offensive player in the not-too-distant future. He certainly doesn't seem to be a favourite of Wilson's however and one wonders if his days as a Leaf might be numbered. I'm reluctant to give up on Kadri but again, if the payoff is an impact, top-six forward, then I think Burke would be remiss if he didn't consider moving the young winger.

On the wings, the Leafs have Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul both putting up better than a point per game. Kessel is a guy who has consistently put up 30+ goals and at this stage of his career, one would think he'll be an All-Star for years to come. Lupul is someone I'm much more skeptical about. Having said that, there's no chance you get point-per-game value in a trade that sends Lupul packing so I think you hold on to him until he proves he isn't that kind of player.

Nikolai Kulemin is another guy that I think should be part of the core moving forward. He scored 30 goals last season (granted, with an inflated shooting percentage) but he's a very good three-zone player and I believe he'll consistently hover around 25 goals if he's skating in a top-six role. This clearly hasn't been Kulemin's year, but I believe in him.

On defense, I've been very impressed by the play of both Carl Gunnarsson and Jake Gardiner. Gunnarsson has seen some praise recently as one of the league's most underrated defensemen. While he's stylistically different than Francois Beauchemin, he's been similarly effective (and under appreciated) in the Leafs' lineup. Gardiner is young and prone to the odd mistake in coverage but his skating and transition defense have both been very strong this year. I love his upside.

Dion Phaneuf has returned to form and is back among the NHL's elite offensive defensemen. Dion is on nearly a 50 point pace and seems poised to put up his best offensive numbers since his Norris trophy nomination. Even his defensive game has improved this season and there's no doubt that he's going to be a Leaf for the longterm.

Luke Schenn is in a similar position to Joe Colborne. I believe he'll be a top-4 defenseman in the longterm but his game clearly hasn't been there this year. Physically, he's a beast but I would like to see him shed some muscle this offseason in an effort to gain a little extra speed. He's a step slow right now and the extra weight he's carrying may be part of his problem. If Schenn were a necessary piece in a package to land a star player, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger but I'm not about to give up on him for a quick fix or for futures either.

As far as I'm concerned, the Leafs' core breaks down like this:

The Core

Mikhail Grabovski
Phil Kessel
Joffrey Lupul
Nikolai Kulemin
Dion Phaneuf
Carl Gunnarsson
Jake Gardiner

The Pieces You'd Like To Keep

Joe Colborne
Nazem Kadri
Luke Schenn
Tim Connolly

The Bait

John-Michael Liles
Jonas Gustavsson
Tyler Bozak
Clarke MacArthur
Cody Franson
Keith Aulie
Matthew Lombardi

As I said last week, I think the Leafs should be strategic sellers at the trade deadline. I'd like to see them add some futures, clear enough cap space for Grabovski to be re-signed, and for Burke to make a strong push for whatever premiere talent is available in an offseason trade. If there are star-calibre players available at the deadline, then of course I'd like to see Burke make a push to land them, but these moves tend to happen in the offseason rather than the deadline.

How Brian Burke evaluates the talent that he has on his own roster and how he manages his cap space in order to keep his core together might be the most important tasks of his tenure up to this point. As much as I like the job he's done thus far, these next 6 months will determine --perhaps as much as the Kessel trade-- whether his tenure is a success, or a failure.

Disagree with something we said? Check us out on Twitter at @bcphockeyblog where we'll be happy to tell you why you're wrong, or if you're really smart, begrudgingly admit that we were.

The Elephant in the Room: The Leafs' Goaltending Situation

2012-01-22T17:10:00.003-05:00

I miss Potvin and my “Felix the Cat” mini stick.

I miss Cujo and his playoff heroics. Though I don’t really miss his low production Mr. Sub commercials.

Heck, I’m even starting to pine over an aging Martin Gerber (kidding... kind of).

Consistent goaltending had long been the hallmark of Maple Leaf teams through the 1990s and into the early 2000s. It’s something I never really took the time to appreciate until it was gone.

Our keeper duo of Jonas Gustavsson and James Reimer have battled hard this year, and by all accounts are indeed trying their best each and every night. But as Sean Connery says to Nick Cage in perhaps my favourite scene of The Rock, “Losers always whine about their best, winners go home and [...errr hang out with] the prom queen”

Optimus Reim hasn't shown us much this season since sustaining a head injury, or was it a neck injury(?), or maybe a concussion(?), from Brian Gionta on October 22nd. His GAA of 3.01 and save percentage of .899 are a far cry from the 2.60 and 9.21 he posted last year in a mesmerizing run that brought the Leafs to the brink of a playoff spot. The payoff from that half season was a 2 year, $3.6 million dollar contract that set the stage for his development into our true #1.

This year, opposing teams seem to have adjusted to Reimer's ultra butterfly style. Scouting reports around the league undoubtedly suggested players to go “glove high” whenever possible. James is more of a shot blocker as opposed to a goalie that looks to make saves (Brodeur and Fleury as the best examples). His propensity to drop down to his knees on every shot has left upstairs noticeably open.

Conversely, the Monster has been somewhat of an enigma since arriving in the summer of 2009. His 6' 3" frame and exceptional reflexes had fans believing he was a number one goalie; however, the 3 years since have been a struggle. His numbers this season have been average, with a GAA of 2.84 and save percentage at .907, buoyed by strong play over the last 15 contests.

Gustavsson has been more controlled of late, showing patience, and allowing pucks to come to him. Early in his tenor with the Buds he would often over compensate on saves, forcing himself out of position and creating needless scrambles in the crease.

There have been moments over the past 3 seasons where I’ve been convinced either Jonas or James had the potential to be a strong starting goalie in the NHL. These moments have passed. Both men are certainly NHL-calibre goalies, and should have jobs as either the #2 or #3 on a team’s depth chart. They are not, however, the answer to the goaltending woes that have plagued us since 2004.

While a bounce back for Reimer or Gustavsson maintaining the play he's exhibited during this recent run of games are possibilities, the likelihood of either occurring isn't something I'm willing to bet next season's playoff chances on.

We at BCP have recently discussed the possibility of bringing in Evgeni Nabokov as a short term solution to lead a playoff push. Below, are 4 goalies that could provide long term stability, should Burke pursue them either at the deadline, or more likely, in the offseason.

Jonas Hiller, Anaheim Ducks
Age 29
2011-12 stats: 2.88 GAA, .905 S%

He is probably the name that makes me the most nervous. Having battled a serious case of vertigo last season, there are questions about Hiller’s ability to perform as a top tier 'tender. Signed for two more years, at $4.5 million he has a manageable cap number. His numbers this year are clouded a bit by the struggling players in front of him. Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan have all had somewhat down seasons, and their best defenseman, Lubomir Visnovsky missed significant time to start the year. Hiller’s health will remain a question mark, but he’s definitely an upgrade for a number of clubs, Toronto included.

Josh Harding, Minnesota Wild
Age 27
2011-12 stats: 2.42 GAA, .925 S%

He long been cast as the back up to Niklas Backstrom on the Wild depth chart. Both goalies have performed well this season and played an important role in Minny’s hot start to the season. Backstrom is signed through next year at $6M and is only 33 years of age. The Wild have some needs to address both up front, and on defence with Brent Burns having been shipped out this past offseason. Harding was drafted in the 2nd round of 2002 and was once considered a top goalie prospect. Injuries have derailed him a bit, but you have to wonder if a change of scenery and a chance at the number one job would give him the opportunity to reach his potential.

Anders Lindback, Nashville Predators
Age 23
2011-12 stats: 2.65 GAA, 898 S%

His numbers this year certainly don’t jump off the page but at 6' 6", the hulking keeper, nicknamed “The Giant”, has shown flashes of brilliance in the past. With Rinne signing a seven year extension earlier this year, it’s clear Lindback will be relegated to the #2 spot for as long as he's a Pred. Every year Nashville struggles to produce offensively, as they're forced to rely on players like Hornqvist and Erat. Dealing Lindback could add some offensive jump to their top 6, while giving Anders the opportunity to thrive elsewhere.

Ryan Miller, Buffalo Sabres
Age 31
2011-12 stats: 3.15 GAA, 8.97 S%

What a difference a year makes. Miller, a perennial Vezina candidate, has struggled to find any sort of consistency this year. Making matters worse, his backup, Jhonas Enroth, has developed into a decent 1A option in net for the Sabres. It’s unclear if Buffalo will consider trading Miller as he still has 2 more years on his contract at $6.25M per season. At 31, it’s unlikely Ryan has simply “lost it” and at some point in the near future he’ll again be a top 10 goalie in the league. While the cap number isn’t great, he’s proven himself for nearly a half decade at the NHL level and could solidify any team’s goalie situation. We have our doubts as to whether Buffalo would deal him within the division but surely there aren't many teams looking to spend that kind of cash on their goalie.

Should the Leafs Be Buyers or Sellers?

2012-01-19T13:48:00.001-05:00

I'd like to preface this post by saying that I think we all know what they will do but what I want to talk about is what they should do. The Leafs haven't made the playoffs since Brian Burke took over and started his rebuild-on-the-fly and they're only 3 points out heading into tonight's game. There's little doubt in my mind that the Leafs are looking to add and, truthfully, I like their chances of getting in if they do.

What kind of chances would we have if we did get in though? This post isn't intended to be a treatise on the Leafs' porous defense, their small-ish forwards, or its sub-standard goaltending but the truth is, this team is not built to succeed in the playoffs. And frankly, "I'm not interested in getting our [butts] kicked in the first round."

I'm not a negative guy by disposition. This blog is rife with effusive posts praising Burke for his craftiness and his cunning as he pulled together a group of respectable prospects and a middle-of-the-pack NHL roster. We're much further along than we were when Burke took over and the future looks brighter still; you'll get no argument from me on these points. Having said this, the future is still in the future.

Now I don't want to come off as excessively reactive. Danny Gray had a great post on LeafsNation where he warns us against losing perspective during short losing streaks. These streaks are the cross that a fan of a bubble team must bear. The objective truth is that there are key pieces missing on this team right now.

As I look at this roster, I don't feel that the team is that far off. Phaneuf is back to being an elite offensive defenseman and his defensive play is as good as it's been since the Leafs acquired him. Gunnarsson has really solidified himself as a top-4 calibre defenseman. Phil Kessel has made the leap from very good goal scorer to elite offensive performer and Joffrey Lupul has come along for the ride. In Grabovski and Kulemin, the Leafs have a pair of two-way players who can play a great support role to a strong top line. We're getting there.

What we really need is to set the team up for a strong offseason.

It looks increasingly likely that none of the big names on the rumour mill will be moved prior to the trade deadline -- these moves just seem to happen with more regularity in the offseason. So how do we get ourselves in position to make a play for one of these guys, should they become available?

It may not be a popular position to take but, in my opinion, the Leafs should be sellers this trade deadline.

As things sit today, the Leafs have $15M in cap space heading into next season and some key RFAs in Kulemin, Franson, Aulie, and Frattin who need to be re-signed. If we consider that Grabovski is headed to unrestricted free agency it's apparent that this team could use some financial flexibility.

Even aside from financial flexibility, it's incumbent on the Leafs to bring in as many longterm assets as they can in order to make a push for this offseason's Mike Richards or Jeff Carters.

John-Michael Liles and Jonas Gustavsson are both UFAs who would carry some value for a team looking to load up for the playoffs. Liles in particular is the kind of defenseman with an expiring contract that teams seem to love at the trade deadline.

The Leafs also have a glut of players in the $3 to 4.5M range with contracts that expire in 2013. Guys like Connolly, MacArthur, or Lombardi may also be movable and would provide the team with the cap flexibility that they need heading into the offseason.

If this team is going to take a step forward, these are the kinds of tough decisions that need to be made. Grabovski is a player that the Leafs can ill afford to lose and with their current cap situation, it would be a challenge to re-sign him. Getting out from under some of these contracts is important for the Leafs moving forward.

The hard truth is, for the Leafs to move forward, this season needs to be another year of asset acquisition.

Brian Burke has done a fantastic job of adding assets to a franchise that had very little team equity but that's the easy part. There are tough personnel decisions ahead and it may require not putting our best foot forward to close out this season. For the first time on the road to respectability, it seems like there is an even pull between 'push now' and 'build for later' and the fork that Burke chooses to take might be his toughest decision to date -- other than sending Colton Orr to the Marlies, of course.

I had some great input from @charlesbrosky , @mantonio09 , @leafschatter , and @Hedgery while putting this post together. Putting out content and coming up with ideas for blogposts can be a challenge without these conversations so I'm really greatful for the input I get.

If you love talking Leafs or want to hear our opinion on any number of topics around the Leafs, check us out on Twitter at @bcphockeyblog and send us a tweet. We really do love hearing from you.

Keeping Myself Honest: Mid-Season Prediction Review

2012-01-15T17:43:00.006-05:00

Peter Jennings once said, "I don't think a reporter should give advice or make predictions," and while I agree with the statement, I also think it's a lot of what makes reading blogs a hell of a lot more interesting than reading Steve Simmons -- that and most Leaf bloggers understand the value of research.

Blogging provides a degree of flexibility that I find fun. Newspapers generally stay away from things like complex stats, rumours, and predictions (which is fine) but these are the things that I really enjoy about sports.

From the comfort of my Mother's basement, I blog with impunity and without rules. With no risk of repercussions, I released my list of pre-season predictions late in September, prior to the start of the regular season and now, with nobody to hold me accoutable but myself, I present to you, humble reader, the results thus far.

1) Phil Kessel will have his best goals per game ratio of his career

Kessel is currently scoring at a 0.545 goals-per-game pace and if this keeps this up through the end of the season, he'll put up 45 goals. Kessel has taken his game to an entirely different level this season and for those who follow the Leafs, it's no surprise that I get full marks for this one.

2) Gunnarsson will not finish the year as a Maple Leaf

The verdict is still very much out on this one. Most Leaf fans will know that Gunnarsson has been the team's second best defenseman this season and probably the team's most consistent overall. He's a guy I've always been high on and someone I would hate to lose. Having said that, Gunnarsson and Schenn both seem to find themselves at the center of most Toronto Maple Leaf trade rumours. With Burke having told Schenn that he hasn't been offered to anyone, one has to wonder if Gunnarsson is the defensemen whose name has been bandied about in trade offers.

3) John-Michael Liles will make the Kaberle trade look like a robbery

John-Michael Liles was acquired at the modest cost of a second round draft pick. That pick was originally acquired from the Boston Bruins in the deal that sent Tomas Kaberle out of town.

Liles is currently tied with Kaberle in assists (17), has scored 4 goals to Kaberle's 1, and is +2 to Kaberle's -15. I'm comfortable saying that the Leafs acquisition of a first round draft pick, Joe Colborne, and John-Michael Liles, for Kaberle was an unqualified 'win'.

4) Tyler Bozak will make you love him again

2010-11 was a tough season for Tyler Bozak. After a strong rookie campaign, he found himself ill-equipped for the rigors of a full NHL schedule and had his share of offensive struggles. His -29 rating was more than a little mis-leading but it was also a statistic that caused a lot of alarm. This season, he's been better than ever. Prior to his injury, Bozak had put up 25 points in 35 games (just 7 shy of last season's total) and had a +/- rating of +4. Nice bounce-back by Bozak.

5) More of the same from Grabovski and Kulemin

This is where things take a bit of a turn for the worse for BCP. While Grabovski is on nearly an identical pace to last season, Kulemin has struggled to put up points after scoring 30 goals last year. As things stand now, Kulemin is on a 35 point pace. There are a lot of reasons for that (poor shooting percentage, less powerplay time, &c) but part of it is Kulemin himself. He's a great player and we expect a solid second half, but he'll be hardpressed to get close to last season's totals.

6) Expect some big trades up front

Once again, the verdict is still out but if the rumours are to be believed, we may be less than a week away from seeing this prediction bear some fruit. There are a lot of rumours about star-calibre players coming our way and while most seem highly specious, some are reasonably plausible. Whether it's a star or otherwise, I do expect the Leafs to have some fresh faces in the lineup by February; just who those faces will be remains to be seen.

7) Our special teams will be much better

Well, kinda. What I really expected when making this prediction was the the Leafs would get into the middle third of the league in both penalty killing and on the powerplay. In reality, the Leafs have gotten worse (somehow) on the PK while improving tremendously on the PP. The Leafs are currently 30th in the NHL in penalty killing and 4th in the league with the man advantage. What we're left with are middle of the pack special teams (which is much better than what we had last season) though not at all in the way I expected.

8) Colby Armstrong will get a big suspension

With NHL Chief Justice, Brendan Shanahan, running amok, Colby Armstrong did the smart thing for his bank account and got himself hurt. I say this in jest, of course, but there's little doubt in my mind that a player like Armstrong, if healthy, would have found himself suspended by now. It hasn't happened yet, but let the kid get healthy. It will.

9) James Reimer will be the first Leaf goalie in recent history to not make the fans hate him

How could anyone hate this guy? If anything, right now Leaf fans probably feel sorry for the kid. His stats aren't great this year but he really hasn't been able to recover from the headshot he took (without suspension, somehow) earlier in the season. That said, he's a respectable 7-4-4 and I think it's safe to say that Leaf nation is pulling hard for the affable Reimer.

10) Kessel's line will not include both Lupul and Connolly by season's end

This prediction felt safe, at the time, for two reasons. First of all, Connolly is always hurt and I liked what I saw from Bozak in the pre-season and secondly, I didn't have a lot of faith in Joffrey Lupul. Well, Lupul looks like he's on the first line to stay and Connolly, when healthy, has been a great cog between the two wingers. Provided Connolly remains healthy for the better part of the second half, I'll happily eat some crow on this one. Congrats to Lupul, he's looked fantastic.

All in all, not a bad set of predictions from yours truly. I'm no Nostradamus but I've hardly been a Matt Hasselbeck either. I still hope I'm wrong on the Gunnarsson prediction, but the cost of a top six forward isn't going to be a package of easy-to-part-with futures. You've gotta love where the Buds are so far this season and where they look to be heading longterm.

Here's hoping for a strong second half!

For more of my brilliance, check us out at @bcphockeyblog

What a Ride: Preparing Ourselves for the Rollercoaster Ahead

2012-01-15T15:28:00.001-05:00

Life as a sports fan is akin to that of the season's pass holder at Canada’s Wonderland; everyday is filled with one roller coaster after another. Ups and down, wondrous and exciting climbs, followed sharply by steep and heart wrenching declines. Sports fans do not know peacetime or relaxation – we know only diametric opposites. We know triumph and we know defeat. Celebration and mourning.

The polarizing world of fandom is perhaps no more evident than for those of us living in the shadow of the CN Tower – we fans of the beloved, and yet so often tortured, Toronto Maple Leafs.

In a world with endless Twitter feeds, online newspapers, print publications, blogs, Facebook pages, mobile updates, and 24-hour sports stations it's no surprise that Leaf content is so readily available to all of us. The seemingly endless supply of team news is both a blessing and a curse. As a card carrying member of Leaf Nation I rarely take a moment to sit back, and as the old cliché goes, ‘smell the roses’.

Every day is wrought with a new battle, a new catastrophe, and a new cause for which fans must rally together in arms (though not the riotous arms of Habs or Canucks fans). A shutout loss to the New York Rangers fuels discussions around the teams need for top tier offensive help. A drubbing from the Boston Bruins renews the hue and cry for more steady and consistent goaltending from our masked men. An anonymous poll from a bored Sports Illustrated journalist forces all of us to reconsider the true meaning of the word ‘overrated’.

Personally, I'm not bothered by the process. As lifelong Leaf fan, and supporter of all things blue and white I take great pride in following every story, and debating every line-up change, every trade, and every signing.

The point, if I have one, strung together through my brief Jerry Maguire-ian moment of self reflection is this – we need to enjoy the ride. We, as a collective of fans need to take a moment and truly enjoy what has been a satisfying first 44 games of the 2011-12 season.

Our team is relevant again, with a record of 22-17-5, for 49 points and 8th seed in the Eastern Conference. Our team that has spent the better half of the new millennium toiling in the doldrums of the NHLs proverbial basement finally has a pulse. Our past is still dampened by disappointments, but for the first time in a long time there is hope for the future. With a strong management team in place and the development of a youthful and exciting core of players there is cause to celebrate.

There is no one guiltier than myself for getting distracted by the talk show pundits, daily rumours, and the general media bonanza that comes with a market like Toronto. I’ve sat alone at the computer reading countless articles dissecting every aspect of the Seguin/Kessel trade, researched every player on cap geek to understand how we’re managing team salary, argued vehemently over cold adult beverages that Joffrey Lupul is a legitimate 1st line player. Both Kessel and Lupul are enjoying what are undoubtedly career years compiling 48 and 47 points respectively.

However today, and maybe only for today, I’m not going to dwell on the countless news stories or team reports. Today I’m going to relax and bask in the calming glow of relevancy. For the first time since before the lockout my team matters again. The playoffs -- a tournament long since forgotten for most Leaf fans -- is again within reach. Memories of Gilmour’s magnificent wraparound, and Roberts’ playoff heroics of years long since past will be replaced with new ones.

For a moment, at least, we’ve climbed to the roller coaster's precipice. As we ready our stomachs for the inevitable peaks and valleys that lay ahead, I'd urge all of us to take a moment, catch our breaths, and enjoy the ride.

Nikolai Kulemin: Why the Leafs Can't Afford to Lose Him

2012-01-13T13:42:00.002-05:00

The NHL Trade Deadline is looming and almost every Toronto Maple Leaf with the exception of Kessel and Phanuef has had their name bandied about in the media as potential trade bait. Names like Kadri, MacArthur, Schenn, Gunnarsson, Komisarek and Finger (OK, not Finger), have been mentioned in deals to various clubs including the Ducks and Flyers.

With all due respect to the names listed above, the only man I truly fear losing from the Leafs line-up is right winger Nikolai Kulemin. The 25 year old might be the most under-appreciated man in the NHL, and a big part of the reason why our club has been lauded all season by hockey pundits for our forward depth.

Unfortunately, Kuelmin has received undue criticism this year for his perceived lack of contribution to the team’s success. However, the people throwing the proverbial mud at Nik can’t possibly be the same fans driving up TV ratings as Kulemin operates at a consistently high level every single night.

Let's not forget that it was widely speculated that Kulemin was one of the key pieces in a deal that nearly landed the Leafs Mike Richards this offseason. He's a coveted asset for a reason.

His skill set is perhaps the most varied of any player on the Leafs. Buoyed by a powerful skating stride, he’s able to propel himself deep into the offensive zone and sustain consistent pressure on opposing defenders. At 6 foot 1, 225 pounds he is extremely difficult for other teams to manage 1-on-1, and rarely loses puck battles down low or along the half boards. His tireless work ethnic at both ends of the ice has made him one of the best 2-way forwards in hockey. Yeah, I said it; in hockey. Unlike most wingers, who simply glide in the vicinity of the opposition's defenseman, Kulemin is always engaged in the Leaf zone – chasing down loose pucks, remaining in constant motion, and keeping an active stick. Offensively Kulemin has always been a solid passer and possesses a deceptively effective shot release.

I can understand that purely looking at Kulemin’s statistics this season could lead to frustration when compared to last year's 82 game totals (30G – 27A – 57Pts). When compared to this year’s numbers through 42 games (5G – 13A – 18Pts) it’s clear he hasn’t been scoring at the same level.

A lack of goal scoring doesn’t correlate to a lack of importance to our team, though. The explanation for his slow start in 2011-12 is two-fold. Firstly, Kulemin has seen time on both the 2nd and 3rd lines through the first half of the season. The movement around the line-up is a result of strong performances from players like Frattin and Crabb, which has led to a more balanced attack. Last year, Kulemin took nearly every shift on the second line with Grabovski and MacArthur, both at even strength and on the 2nd power play unit.

Secondly, Kulemin has simply had bad luck. Yes, I know 'luck' shouldn’t be considered a major factor, and over an 82 game season I have a hard time believing luck could have gone against you every night. However, if you’ve been tuning in for the games you’ll know that in the early going of the season Kulemin hit more posts, and shot more pucks into chest protectors of goalies than any other Leaf. His shooting percentage is down from 17.3% last season to 8.3% this year. Expect him to split the difference over the remainder of the year. Over the last 5 games, Kulemin has 1 goal and 2 assists – modest totals to be sure – but a good sign nonetheless that his luck is starting to turn.

It’s no surprise that other teams have taken notice of Kulemin’s play. His versatility is rare in NHL, with the ability to play effectively on any of the top 3 lines. Since breaking in full time with Toronto in 2008-09 he has brought a positive and professional attitude the rink. Always willing to take on whatever responsibility the coaching staff asks of him -- something that shouldn’t be undervalued in a league where some players get distracted by power play time and linemates and being a loser (Mike Cammalleri, if I’m naming names).

With a reasonable cap hit of $2.35 million this season, Kulemin’s salary can easily be worked into any team budget. Making him an attractive piece to teams looking to build for a playoff push, but lacking the space needed to massage a player like Jarome Iginla ($7million) or Ales Hemsky ( $4.1million) within their cap structure.

Ultimately, there's a reason that every rumour seems to include Kulemin's name. Opposing GMs see a player that's versatile and skilled who is at the absolute low-end of their value. This really is not the time to be moving Kulemin, both from a value standpoint and based on the dimension that he brings to the lineup. There aren't a lot of players who are strong in the defensive zone and at the same time scored 30 goals last season. These guys are a rare breed indeed.

As a kid playing minor hockey I would sometimes get frustrated after games when I didn’t score. On the drive home from the rink my Dad would always reassure me “Don’t worry, as long as you're getting chances, the goals will come. It’s when the chances dry up – that’s when you start to worry.”

Nikolai Kulemin certainly hasn’t been scoring this season – but I hope that come February 27th at 3:01pm, we as Leaf fans can give him another chance.

Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Rumours: Van Riemsdyk, Ryan, Getzlaf & More

2012-01-12T19:20:00.000-05:00

Thank you, Darren Dreger.

For some reason, a lot of Leaf fans really hate talking rumours; personally, I love it. A lot of the time it can feel like pointless speculation, and I understand that, but when a guy like Dreger starts talking about the Leafs and Flyers discussing a guy like Van Reimsdyk, why not take it seriously?

When you've got a General Manager like Brian Burke who isn't afraid to make a big splash and who will often spin the rumour mill himself, you shouldn't be surprised to see that there are a lot of names being associated with your team. What we've done below is take a look at some of the names that have been linked with the Leafs and what those players might mean to our club.

James Van Riemsdyk

Straight from the mouth of one of hockey's most well-reputed insiders, the Leafs and Flyers have had discussions around Van Riemsdyk. JVR is 22 years old and is a former 2nd overall draft pick. Right now, he has 11 goals and 11 assists and his best season to date is a 40 point, 75 games played campaign in 2010-11.

Needs he addresses: Van Riemsdyk would provide some much needed size to our top-6 forward group and scoring 21 goals as a 21 year-old is no small feat either. He's the kind of player who could grow with our current core of players.

Cost: Dreger suggested that the cost for JVR would be Luke Schenn +. That '+' could be Kulemin or could be Bozak (also according to Dregs).

From our point of view: You hear a lot of Leaf fans talking about how Luke Schenn is overrated --largely as a result of being the first significant pick of the rebuild-- but the truth is that defensive defensemen take a long time to develop. A lot of teams in the NHL like this guy (not just Leaf fans) and that's why so many rumours center around him. If it takes Schenn and Kulemin (a guy who scored 9 goals more than Van Riemsdyk last year and is a great all-around player) then personally, I'm not interested.

Bobby Ryan

Another of hockey's insider All-Stars, Bob McKenzie, said last night that he felt Bobby Ryan was one of the most likely players to be moved by this season's trade deadline. The links to Burke are fairly obvious, as BB drafted Ryan second overall. Whether it's coincidence or by design, Burke does seem to love bringing in American nationals and Bobby Ryan also fits that mould. And then there's the prolific trading relationship with the Ducks.

Needs he addresses: At 6'2", Bobby Ryan doesn't fully address our need for a big forward, but he's no Montreal Canadien either. He's got the kind of dynamic offensive skill that only Kessel possesses in the Leafs' lineup and has 3 consecutive 30 goal seasons to his name.

Cost: The Ducks are adamant that they're not in a rebuild. They'll want more than picks and futures and again, Schenn is a name that is continuously popping up. It's hard to believe that the Leafs land a player of Ryan's calibre without parting with the young defenseman, probably a good forward from the roster (Kulemin or Grabovski), and likely their first rounder, or Kadri, or Colborne.

From our point of view: As we alluded to earlier, Kulemin is a big favourite of ours and Schenn is a guy that we still regard very highly. With that said, Bobby Ryan's flair is something that would provide some solid, consistent scoring to our second line and he's proven he doesn't need to be a first-liner to get it done. His contract (3 more years at a cap hit of $5.1M) is also Brian Burke-friendly.

Alexander Semin

Dave Pagnotta of The Fourth Period posted this year's version of his trade deadline rumour chart today and to precisely nobody's surprise, the Leafs figured prominently. Among the player's who figured into the Leafs' plans was none other than enigmatic Russian sniper, Alex Semin.

Needs he addresses: When he's at his best, Semin is among the NHL's best. With 40, 38, and 34 goals seasons on his resume, it's tough to argue that there's a better goal scorer to be had on the trade market. He's got a great shot and is a powerplay dynamo.

Cost: The Washington Capitals, for all of their struggles so far this season, are built to win now. The team has some of the league's most dynamic players and has more potential superstars coming. Add to this the fact that they hold the Avalanche's first round draft pick in the coming Entry Draft and it's safe to say that this team has no interest in futures. Despite Semin's struggles this season, they'd likely be looking for a package of Grabovski, Kulemin, and Gunnarsson to strengthen their squad heading into the post-season.

From our point of view: I don't profess to have the kind of connections that a guy like Dave Pagnotta does but come on!? Semin is miles from being a Brian Burke type of player, he's a UFA at season's end, and he's a KHL flight risk. Not to mention, he hasn't exactly been lighting it up over the past year-and-a-half. We're passing on Semin and I'd be shocked if Burke didn't too.

Ryan Getzlaf

One of my own personal favourite players in the League, Getzlaf was 'put on the market' by Ducks' GM Bob Murray last week. Whether this was a wakeup call to his star players or an actual cry for offers has been the cause of much debate. Like Ryan, the links to Burke are plentiful and it comes as little surprise that once Getzlaf's name was mentioned by his own GM, people would start wondering if a deal with the Leafs was feasible.

Needs he addresses: Getzlaf adds size to our top-6 forwards and is the playmaking center that Kessel hasn't skated with since Marc Savard. He's 26, has traditionally been better than a point-per-game forward, and he's had playoff and Olympic success.

Cost: Similar to Bobby Ryan, Getzlaf is going to cost a combination of current roster players and futures. My guess is, to the extent that Getzlaf is 'on the market' it would take an astronomical offer to pry the talented center from California. Schenn, Kulemin, Kadri, and a 1st would get the Ducks listening but I'm still not sure, even at that price, he moves.

From our point of view: There are dissenting opinions here at BCP but since I'm writing the piece, I say you try your best to make this happen. If the package is greater than the one listed above, then I would shy away but if it's close to my best guess then I reluctantly pull the trigger.

Paul Stastny

Remember in the summer when we were all hoping that Paul Stastny would sour on the Avs has fast as his father did and then fall gently into the arms of Leaf Nation? Well, it seems like those rumours are back. Stastny looks like he may have fallen behind both Matt Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly on the Avs' center depth chart. The Avs also traded away their first rounder to the Capitals and would probably like to prop themselves up and stay out of the lottery.

Needs he addresses: While Stastny has struggled this season, he's a playmaking center and would probably be a great fit on the Leafs' top line. At 26, he has his prime seasons ahead of him and would be a good fit for the young core of the Leafs' lineup.

Cost: It's really tough to say what the Avs would be looking for. Surely, they don't want to be a lottery team but at the same time, they'll be looking to re-coup some of the futures they squandered in the Varlamov deal. A roster player like Kulemin and a top prospect like Kadri might interest the Avalanche if they feel like Stastny's contract ($6.6M) would be tough to move and are comfortable with O'Reilly and Duchene moving forward.

From our point of view: Stastny's contract is enough to scare us off. While it's true, he'd be a great fit with Lupul and Kessel, the risk of having another highly paid player that doesn't perform at the same level as their cap-hit is something the Leafs can ill afford. Tough to know if he'll ever get back to being the player who hovered around the point-per-game mark early in his career.

For more musings and opinions on Leaf targets, who on our roster shouldn't be expendable, and the odd dig at the Habs and Sens, check us out at @bcphockeyblog

Why Ryan Getzlaf Is The Answer For The Toronto Maple Leafs

2012-01-11T13:59:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, my partner-in-blog put together a post where he claimed that Getzlaf was not the answer for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and wasn't really a fit for the team.

Today, I'm here to tell you he is.

What Darren wrote yesterday wasn't crazy. The Leafs haven't really had much of a problem scoring goals and their most pressing need is probably a #1 shutdown defenseman, granted. The difference, of course, is that Getzlaf is actually available (to some extent) whereas there aren't any legitimate shutdown defensemen on the market.

The Ducks have struggled so far this season and Getzlaf is no exception. With 27 points in 41 games, he's on pace for his worst statistical season since his rookie year. With that said, he was also better than a point-per-game player in each of the preceding four seasons.

Since the acquisition of Phil Kessel, the question among Leaf fans has been, "who will Burke bring in to play center with him?" The answer at first seemed to be Kadri but as time has worn on, it seems increasingly apparent that Kadri is better suited to the wing and at minimum doesn't seem to be cut out for the defensive responsibility that comes with being a number one center. Colborne is a guy that we at BCP have loved since long before the Leafs brought him in (and even compared him to Getzalf at the time) but he isn't ready now and seems destined to be a solid second line center, rather than a legitimate first.

The longterm answer to this lingering question seems to be "someone from outside the organization".

Don't get me wrong; Connolly has been a perfectly adequate center for that line (when healthy) and Bozak has done an alright job as a spot-start first line center. Do we really think these guys are the best we can do though?

Getzlaf, while not a shutdown defenseman, does address several of the team's major needs. First of all, he's a forward with size. With the Leafs' diminutive top-six, he'd be a welcome addition.

Secondly, he blocks a lot of shots. Getzlaf ranks 19th among NHL forwards in shot blocks this season and was 33rd last season despite having missed 15 games.

Third, he's a strong producer on the powerplay. Getzlaf was 7th in powerplay assists last season, all while playing only 67 games of the 82 game schedule.

Finally, he's the right type of player for Kessel. Last night I got into a heated discussion with a non-Leaf fan as to whether or not Kessel makes his linemates better. The conclusion I came to is that Kessel needs a certain type of player to be at his most effective. Kessel didn't gel with Grabovski and he didn't gel with Matt Stajan (no surprise there). When Kessel is at his best, he's played with a distributing center rather than a possession-style center. His time with Savard and the early stages of this season with Connolly are evidence of this. Getzlaf is the pass-first center that Kessel needs.

Now Darren pointed out that Getzlaf isn't the fleetest of foot and suggested that he might struggle to keep up with Kessel and Lupul. While he's right that Getzlaf would be the slowest player on the line, I would suggest that it's rare for a center to be streaking out of the zone with his wingers on a standard breakout. Generally speaking, the center is fairly deep in the defensive zone when the puck is put into transition, leaving it up to the wingers to gain the offensive zone.

Where Getzlaf helps this line tremendously, in addition to his abilities as a set-up man, is puck retrieval. Getzlaf is a big, physical player who can win a lot of battles along the boards. How many times have we seen highlight packs of Getzaf winning the puck behind the opposing goal, throwing it in front to Perry who then procedes to hack away at it like a lumberjack until it goes in the net? The only more common highlight I can think of was 'Stockton to Malone for the fadeaway J' in the mid-to-late 90s.

Now, it's true that this team has a lot of centers on the roster (none of them signed through the end of the 2012-13 season) but we don't have a player like Getzalf. Truthfully, there aren't many like him out there.

I understand that the reported asking price for him is very high but the truth is, 'asking price' is just the starting point. It's also likely that acquiring a guy like Getzlaf is going to cost us assets that we as fans will cringe to lose. I even get that the Leafs' greatest need is an elite shutdown defenseman. The fact of the matter is, 6'4", 26 year old, pass-first centers don't hit the trade of free agent markets very often and for good reason.

There's no doubt that bringing in Getzlaf would cost us but I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger -- we may only get one shot.

Make sure you check us out on Twitter at @bcphockeyblog . We love to hear how wrong we are, how much the Senz Ruel!!1, or that we mis-spelled 'Grabovski' in the third paragraph from the bottom. Or if you just wanna chat Leafs, we're good with that too.

Why Getzlaf is Not the Answer

2012-01-10T20:52:00.003-05:00

No matter where I go in the fair city of Toronto, I’m surrounded by the same fevered whispers. The guy in front of me at Tim Hortons, uttering the same sweet nothings as my dentist.... Getzlaf.... Getzlaf.

Since news broke last week that the Leafs were in serious contention to land struggling Anaheim Ducks' center Ryan Getzlaf before the trade deadline, fans have erupted with anticipation. The mainstream media, the blogosphere, the twitterverse (shameless plug, make sure you’re following us @bcphockeyblog) have all reinforced the rumours that Getzlaf may be coming.

Like the Princess with the incredibly long hair who can’t seem to get out of that tall tower (Ed. Note: Rapunzel), we Leaf fans are waiting for our White Knight to arrive. On the cusp of our first playoff berth since before the lockout, it’s not surprising that our collective hearts would be aflutter.

I fully admit to having bought into the superstar hype for this looming trade deadline at 3pm on February 27th, but Ryan Getzlaf is not the answer. Give me Rick Nash, Zach Parise, Alex Semin even. But do not – do not bring me Getzlaf... and heres why:

The Stanley Cup Ring

Getzlaf gets part of his reputation from the experience of winning the Stanley Cup with the Ducks in 2006-2007. However, astute hockey fans realize Ryan was far from a key cog in the machine that was the Ducks that season. As their team included future Hall of Famers Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer patrolling the blue line, J.S. Giguere still wearing the XXXL goalie equipment, and a young Teemu Selanne (which evidently isn’t that different from an old Teemu Selanne). Getzlaf recorded 58 points in 82 regular season games that year, and added 17 in 21 games in the playoffs. Certainly not awful numbers, but far from those of a bonafide superstar.

Speed, or lack thereof

Getzlaf is heralded for many things – his hands, his size, his toughness. One thing he is not known for – his quickness. Watching him try to change directions is more painful than turning around the GO train. His talents work well in an offense that is built to grind out defences and control the puck down low. The problem is, the Leafs have a group of top 9 forwards that is largely undersized. Our team is built on speed and the ability to forecheck teams insatiably in the offensive zone. A player like Getzlaf will force his linemates to slow down. This means Lupul and Kessel (his expected wingers) wouldn’t be able to play the same attack game they are now. Without their team speed the Leafs would not be sitting on the inside of the playoff picture at the halfway point of the season. It’s said that ‘speed kills’, and in the new NHL speed wins.

Glut of Centers

Our group of centers has rounded into form nicely this year – with Connolly, Graboski, Bozak, Colborne, Kadri (eventually), and Steckel. I understand that a few of the above players would likely leave via trade to acquire Getzlaf, but at least 3 of them would remain. Our need really isn’t down the middle; it’s on the wing. Bringing in some size and power at the winger position would do wonders to our playoff chances where the checking becomes tighter and the goals greasier. Which is why I want Rick Nash to don the blue and white. He has comparable size to Getzlaf, but also possesses the speed necessary to fit seamlessly into the Leafs' offense. Adding some strength and size to the wing will complement our smaller playmaking centers, and allow the first line to continue with its run-and-gun style.

The truth is, Ryan Getzlaf is a heck of hockey player and under normal circumstances I would welcome him to the city of Toronto with open arms. But today, with this team, clinging perilously to our first playoff berth in nearly a decade – I’m not taking any chances. Enjoy the sunshine Ryan.

All-Stars At Every Level

2012-01-05T14:51:00.000-05:00

There's nothing worse than an All-Star game. A single, meaningless game where the league's stars gather in one arena and skate around the ice at 3/4 speed on offense and 1/2 speed on defense while the games that are actually exciting are put on hold. Yuk!

My disdain for the All-Star game notwithstanding, this year's game is providing some positive signs for Leaf fans.

Dion Phaneuf has already made the All-Star team after getting voted in by the fan ballot. Now this isn't exactly a reflection of a player's skill but Phaneuf's 26 points do place him 6th in points among the league's defensemen. He probably shouldn't be a starter, but I would think he deserves to go.

Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul also appear to be likely participants, sitting 4th and 5th in league scoring, respectively.

The AHL All-Star game is also fast approaching and prospects Joe Colborne and Nazem Kadri both got the call for the minor league skill-fest.

But what does all of this mean for the Maple Leaf organisation? Well, for one thing, the common narrative doesn't seem to be lining up with reality.

Turn on talk radio for an afternoon and count the number of callers (or hosts for that matter) who claim that the Leafs are thin in the top six, or that beyond Kessel, they've got no stars.

The reality, for the time being, is that the Leafs seem to be doing just fine at the top of their lineup. Lupul and Kessel have both been electric and Phaneuf has been among the better offensive defensemen in the league.

"Star power", whatever that means, hasn't been the problem for the Leafs.

Having two AHL All-Stars is an indication that our prospect pool contains some guys with high-end potential (and value) as well. Colborne and Kadri seem to have hit their stride in tandem this season, though they've rarely shared the ice at either the NHL or AHL level.

While I'm reluctant to say that Lupul is a bonafide star after only a half season of elite production, he's winning me over. Phaneuf really looks like he's bounced back after some shaky seasons. Kessel has genuinely become a better player this year and has looked every bit as good as his position in the league scoring race would suggest.

The rumour mill seems to have started spinning full steam over the past week with Rick Nash, Bobby Ryan, and Ryan Getzlaf all having their names tossed around. Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled to have any one of those players skating with the Leafs, but the next time you hear someone say, "the Leafs have to trade for one of them or they'll never make the playoffs," it might be worth considering exactly what has been the problem for the Leafs this year; it hasn't been star power.

Some New Year's Resolutions for the Toronto Maple Leafs

2012-01-03T14:39:00.002-05:00

Good riddance!

2011 ended, as it began, with the Leafs out of a playoff spot and with fans of the team screaming for answers. Some of the questions, of course, have changed but there are still plenty being asked. What's going on with the goaltending? Why is our penalty-kill so ineffective? These are the recidivists.

But there are new questions too and not all of them are quite so negative. Has Phil Kessel truly arrived as an elite NHL player? Has Lupul finally lived up to his potential? Somehow, it feels like the team is in a better place heading into 2012.

Having flipped the calendar and taken stock of the year that was, it's now time to look forward. January is a month for reflection and a month for improvement, and with this in mind I've put together a list of New Year's resolutions for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Let's all hope that the Leafs can follow through on them.

In 2012, the Toronto Maple Leafs commit to;

1) Improve the penalty kill

This is certainly the topic du jour among all of Leaf Nation right now. To be honest, it's a little shocking that the team is even competing for a playoff spot given how abysmal they've been on the PK. After a great start, it's caught up to them and things will only get worse if the penalty kill doesn't get better.

2) Find a starting goaltender

For quite a while, it looked like they had found a starter in Reimer but things are a little less certain lately. Reimer was de-railed by a suspected-though-never-confirmed concussion and hasn't really looked the same since. Gustavsson has been inconsistent. There's nothing that says either of these guys can't be the answer for the Leafs in goal but if they aren't, Brian Burke needs to find the answer and find it fast.

3) Hold on to their 1st round draft pick

The Toronto Maple Leafs, as currently constructed, are a tough team to evaluate. I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 6th in the Eastern Conference but I also wouldn't be surprised if they finished 25th in the NHL. With this in mind, I feel that it's critical that the Leafs hold on to their 1st rounder -- they're a few key injuries away from it being a lottery pick.

4) Make solid decisions at the trade deadline, based on reasonable expectations

There's not a Leaf fan out there who isn't sick of seeing this team miss the playoffs. The team's streak of futility has crossed the border of the absurd and is speeding toward preposterous. Having said this, it's important to recognize that this team is getting better, not worse.

The Leafs' time may not be now -- even for a goal as modest as a playoff appearance -- but it's up to management to recognize what this team can achieve in the final stretch of the season. It's important that the team either make the playoffs, or continue to build for the future. There is no way that Leaf fans should be forced to endure the stagnation that was so prevalent in the JFJ years.

5) Identify the core

This year is going to be where the heavy lifting takes place for the Maple Leaf braintrust. They've done a good job at improving the team's asset base, but ultimately, that's the easy part. The trick now is to identify which of these players will form the core of the team moving forward and which pieces will need to make way for prospects or new additions. Perhaps most notably, a decision will have to be made on UFA-to-be Mikhail Grabovski.

With Connolly, Lombari, Bozak, and Steckel all signed for another season and Joe Colborne pushing for a fulltime slot in the NHL, the decision on Grabovski's future will likely be the most important question Brian Burke will have to answer over the next six months.

In 2012, Blue Chip Prospects commit to:

1) Be more cautious with potential

When evaluating the team heading into this season, I assumed they'd be quite good defensively. I expected the odd gaffe from Gardiner but in general, I figured that the Leafs would be icing a solid group of blueliners. In reality, what we have is a defense with great potential. There will be a time where Luke Schenn, Cody Franson, and Jake Gardiner will be very good NHL defensemen. That time just isn't now. The best thing we can hope for is that the unit continues to improve.

2) Not worry about free agents

I may not have written too much on the subject, or at the very least came across as only passively interested, but the truth is, I was emotionally invested in Brad Richards this offseason. I wanted so badly for the Leafs to find a way to land him. The fact of the matter is, free agent contracts for star players rarely work out in the longterm. Richards has been good in New York and the Rangers are first in the conference right now but the fact of the matter is, there haven't been many impact free agents in recent years. It's important to keep this in mind as the enigmatic Alexander Semin approaches unrestricted free agency.

3) Try to ride the wave

I'm as guilty as any Leaf fan out there of getting apathetic when the team goes into a prolonged slump. I don't consider myself a bandwagon Leaf fan by a long shot; in fact, it's a matter of self-preservation, more often that not, that makes me take a step back. In 2012, I resolve to be more balanced in my fandom and to not get too excited when things are going well, nor to get too down on the team when they're struggling.

4) Make fun of our rivals

We used to be a lot better at riping Habs, Sens, and Flyers' fans than we have been over the last 6 months. We're going to do a better job of letting these people know what we think of them and their team, I promise.

5) Figure out how to use Twitter

Readership here at BCP is actually pretty solid. This may surprise some of you as the comments section is typically thin and the Twitter account is a bit of a joke but honestly, if you're reading this, you're not alone! We've received some great support from Pension Plan Puppets, The Globe and Mail, and Spector's Hockey over the years and it's time we put a little more work into promoting ourselves.

So go on, check us out on Twitter at bcphockeyblog . We'll answer your questions, try and be funny, and probably have a lot of fun talking hockey with you. If you're already following, drop us a line, we'd love to hear from you. Unless you're a Habs fan; in which case I hope you light your own car on fire. Don't actually do that, by the way. I know how you struggle with sarcasm... and the written word.