The Blue-Gray Sky

Indefensible

2009-11-08T11:02:00.006-05:00

(First off, I wanted to say I'm sorry I haven't been able to be more active on the blog this football season, but with work heating up it's harder and harder to find that quiet time you need to pull together something of substance and quality. The morning after last night's debacle I find myself with some of that quietude, so I thought I would spill some ink -- although I make no guarantees for substance or quality. I'm rusty. On a related note, thanks very much to my colleague Pat for keeping things rolling while I've been slumming it for the man.)

Losing to Navy is indefensible, and I'm not here to defend it. But winning a football game is about maximizing your possessions more than the other guy, and there are specific reasons we lost this game. On defense...

1. We were out-schemed on the option, with adjustments coming too little and too late. Our defensive staff assumed Navy would play the same reads and keys that we shut down so successfully last year, and when they didn't, we were caught flat-footed. This led to two touchdowns for Navy on their first two possessions of the game. Put this on Tenuta and Brown (and Weis) for not reacting quickly enough: our players were flailing to cover, alternately, the fullback and the pitchman, and by Navy's second drive we were already down 14.

Want some proof?

COACH NIUMATALOLO: "I think the one thing that helped us, and I really hope this doesn't come across wrong, but I think the thing that helped us this year was last year because we knew that they'd line up the same way. We didn't execute very well last year, and coming into this year they did a great job against us last year defensively, so we had a pretty good clue that they were going to come back and do the same things as they did last year, and we had a few things. We were expecting that same defense that we saw last year.

But it was still a grind. I mean, they're still a great defense, and we thought we had some alignments in some of our formations. But it was a grind to get yardage against them even though we thought we had some numbers advantages in certain formations."

Ian Williams: "They just played harder. They out-schemed us, and they just played harder. I know we played our hearts out, I played my heart out, but I guess they just had a better scheme than we did. They watched film and obviously did the right things and made the right changes [from last year's game]. They spotted a weakness in our defense, they knew what scheme we were going to come out in, and they put a great game plan together."

Greg Jones: "We had a different formation and they were keying on the inside receivers. It was a play we were working on all week and saving it for Notre Dame."

2. The third TD for Navy didn't come until late in the third quarter, after a couple of punts and a missed FG. It was a 3-play scoring drive -- very un-Navy-like -- finishing on a surprise pass to an uncovered receiver for 52 yards. Was it a scheme issue, or a player screw-up? Hard to tell. (Robert Blanton thought the Navy receiver was ineligible, but Charlie disagreed with him in the postgame. Either way, you have to cover a guy running free down the middle of the field, even if you think he's ineligible.)

And that was the sum total of Navy offensive scoring for the day. Yes, they ran for 350 yards. But overall yards for them wasn't much more than they usually gain.

On offense...

3. The Irish had 10 possessions in the game. We drove the field relatively easily on all of them; in fact, Clausen completed 73% of his passes. Astoundingly, we never once punted. Yet we scored only three times. On the other seven possessions:

4. On our first drive Parris fumbles at midfield and Navy scores easily on a short field on their first drive of the game. See #1.

5. Two missed field goals by Tausch. Each was within our kicker's range. Neither appeared to be a bad snap. The guy had made 15 in a row. Shit happens.

6. Turnover on downs inside the five. I questioned the call to go for it at that point, even though we were down 14 already. Furthermore, I don't know about the playcalling once we reached first and goal at the two; although we pounded Hughes twice, he had a net -1 loss for both runs. Regardless, Charlie should have found something that worked.

7. Jimmy fumbles on the one-foot line trying to score.

8. Jimmy bounces a pass off Floyd's back inside the 10 that pinballs right to a Navy defender.

9. Finally, there's the safety, a product of poor field position (13 yard line to start), a drop by Floyd, a sack, and then another sack.

In summary, I look at all this and I see serious issues with coaching on the defensive side of the ball. I also see squandered opportunities on offense mostly due not to scheme or playcalling, but player mistakes at critical junctures that were frankly quite surprising given the players involved. Jimmy has a career day; Jimmy fumbles on the one. Floyd had a career day; Floyd screws up a play in the redzone that leads to a TO. Tausch hits 15 straight; Tausch misses his next two badly. How did I put it up above? Oh, yeah: shit happens.

Now that we know how we lost, let the wild Charlie employment debate rumpus start-- err, continue.

Unanimity

2009-11-07T18:40:00.002-05:00

Game Day!

2009-11-07T14:30:00.000-05:00

Go Irish! Beat Navy!

Statistically Speaking: Washington State

2009-11-06T20:00:00.000-05:00

It Came From the Game Notes

• Sophomore LB Darius Fleming's 1.64 tackles for loss per game is tied for 8th in the nation.

• Based on the cumulative record of future opposition, only two schools (Ohio State and Pittsburgh) ranked in this week’s BCS top 25 face a tougher schedule the rest of the regular season.

• Golden Tate is 2nd in the nation in receiving touchdowns, 4th in the nation in receiving yards, and 18th in all-purpose yards.

• Nick Tausch is currently tied for 2nd in the nation in field goals made percentage at 93% and is tied with Golden Tate for 23rd in the nation in scoring.

Battle for 1st Down

Updated table here.

When I started this metric, I really didn't know if it would prove useful. It was just a way to track how ND did against one of Tenuta's stated defensive goals. I have to admit that it doesn't appear terribly useful on a game by game basis. Perhaps over the long run it does a decent job showcasing the ability of the defense, but taking a single game doesn't add much insight without the best of context.

The obvious example of this is this past weekend's game. ND's 1st down run defense was the worst it was all season, winning only 18% of all downs. And it was low before ND cleared the bench too. Through the first 3 quarters it was only a 12% win rate. Compare that with the SC game, where ND stopped 70% of the Trojans's first down runs. Perhaps the numbers can't be terribly trusted against a completely outmatched opponent in a blowout game. After all, ND only won 11% of 1st down rushes against Hawaii, another lopsided ND victory.

Against the pass, ND was far better, winning 58% of the passing first downs. Both of ND's interceptions and two of the sacks came on 1st down as ND won 7 of 12 first downs. That grades out to an overall win rate of 39%, the third lowest of the year. Like I wrote earlier, perhaps this metric can point to why a team did better or worse than expected, but isn't terribly useful on a game by game basis. Or maybe I'm missing something. What do you think?

Drivin'

Updated table here.

As you might expect, the ND offense was able to slice through the Cougar defense. Even with a few dumb penalties and red zone mistakes, ND picked up 85% of available yardage in the first half on way to a game long percentage of 62.14%, the third highest number of the year.

Defensively, it was about what you would expect from looking at the final score as well. The Cougars only amassed 19.66% of all possible yardage. Only the hapless Huskies from last season have done worse in the past two seasons.

Gimme M.O.E.

Updated table here.

It says something about either ND's offense or the defense's that they are facing that ND can be the 5th overall offense in the country and still make so many mistakes. For the 6th time out of 8 games, ND was over the 12% goal with a M.O.E. score of 13%. Just imagine what this offense could do if they toned down the penalties. 7 penalties against the Cougars are the main culprit this week as ND has already picked up as many offensive penalties (33) as they did all last season.

Defensively, the Cougars made mistake after mistake including penalties, sacks, and interceptions. Their 23% score is easily the highest of the season for an opposing offense and was topped only last season by Hawaii.

Season Long Running Stats

Updated table here.

With only four games left in the season, it's unlikely that too many numbers will make large leaps. So we can all start to compare where ND has experienced some of the biggest gains and biggest setbacks, statistically, from last season.

Let your captain regale

2009-11-05T09:02:00.002-05:00

I'm still wrapping up the Stats post. In the meantime, here's the latest excellent effort from the boys at The House Rock Built as they document the buildup to the Navy game. Good luck getting this song out of your head the rest of the day.

Washington State Photo and Video Galleries

2009-11-04T09:30:00.000-05:00

Time to post some pics from this week's game. As usual the ND Gameday site has some stunning photos of the whole weekend. Make sure to check out UND.com, Irish Sports Report, and SanAntonio.com for more pictures of the game. As for the picture of the week, how can you pick any picture other than Marcus Marter's snapshot of Golden Tate hauling in the halftime hail mary over three Washington State defenders? Matt Cashore has an excellent shot of Tate elevating a second before hauling in the pass as well.

As NBC covered the "home" game, there are replays up on NBCSports.com and Hulu. Here's the 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter, and 4th quarter. You can also watch the game highlights, and the band.

Finally, let's take another look at one of the better catches you'll see this year, courtesy of Paul at Classic Ground.

Pick Six Update

2009-11-03T10:23:00.001-05:00

The Pick Six rankings have been updated. Click on over and try to remember why you picked Ole Miss or Florida State.

Filling up fast

2009-11-02T09:00:00.001-05:00

ND got some more good recruiting news this past week with two more public commits, bringing the current recruiting class up to 18. First up was Florida running back Giovanni Bernard.

The 5'9" 195 pound Bernard visited Notre Dame for the Southern Cal game and followed that up with a trip to Nebraska. After returning home he made the decision to commit to the Irish.

"Notre Dame is the perfect fit for me,'' Bernard said. "The education, the alumni and the entire college atmosphere. I am excited about the opportunity.''

Bernard goes to St. Thomas Aquinas in Florida, giving ND another player from the alma mater of Sam Young, Dan Wenger, Ben Turk, and Jordan Cowart.

Both Rivals and Scout rank Bernard as a 4-star recruit and the 12th overall running back recruit. Scout also has him as a Top 100 recruit, checking in at #88 while Rivals has him as the #162 recruit in their Top 250. ESPN gave Bernard 4 stars as well and put him as the #16 running back and a 79 overall grade. When it comes to offers, Bernard's list is long and impressive. In addition to finalists Nebraska and Oregon State, where his brother Yvenson was a star running back, Bernard has offers from Florida, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Florida State, Miami, and many others.

ND is now likely done at running back with Cameron Roberson and Bernard both on board. Check out some of his highlights in this video interview from earlier in the year and see why Bernard is getting some Autry Denson/Darius Walker comparisons. Here's the depth chart breakdown at running back/fullback for 2010 when Roberson and Bernard show up on campus

Fifth Year	Senior	Junior	Sophomore	Freshman
	Armando Allen	Jonas Gray	Theo Riddick	Cameron Roberson
	Robert Hughes		Cierre Wood*	Gio Bernard
	Steve Paskorz*

The other good news came on Friday when Texas cornerback Toney Hurd, Jr. went public and announced for Notre Dame. Corwin Brown visited Hurd's high school on the same day as ND was making their way to San Antonio for the weekend's game, but due to NCAA rules, Hurd couldn't talk to Brown directly and had to call the staff on the phone to commit.

Rivals has the 5'9" 185 pound Hurd as a 3 star CB and only the 44th overall cornerback recruit, but they also put him as 2nd Team Defense from last January's US Army Bowl Underclassmen Combine. He's a 3 star on Scout and the #26 overall CB. ESPN slots him a bit higher than the other two, giving Hurd 4 stars and labeling him as the #10 corner in the nation. They also have him at #120 in their Top 150 list and give him a grade of 81, tying Tai-ler Jones for highest in the current recruiting class. (In completely unrelated news, both Jones and Hurd are also signed up to play in the ESPN All-American Bowl game in January.)

Like others in this class, Hurd has a strong offer list despite the 3-star recruiting site ranking. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Florida State, Oregon, and Texas A&M all offered Hurd.

Adding Hurd gives ND three corners in the current class as Toney joins the Florida duo of Lo Wood and Spencer Boyd. Here's the depth chart at corner for 2010.

Fifth Year	Senior	Junior	Sophomore	Freshman
Darrin Walls*	Gary Gray*	Robert Blanton	E.J. Banks*	Lo Wood
		J. Slaughter*		Spencer Boyd
				Toney Hurd

With 18 recruits in the class already, there aren't too many spots left with plenty of players still on the board. There is still room for around 7 recruits, give or take a few depending on 5th year decisions and other attrition. Heading into the recruiting homestretch, ND already has a solid class but needs to close out strong with some of the remaining top players still heavily considering ND in order to have the kind of strong class needed to keep up with other top programs.

Happy Halloween!

2009-10-31T19:30:00.001-04:00

Go Irish! Beat Cougars!

Cougar Town

2009-10-30T14:25:00.000-04:00

This Saturday marks the official start of Notre Dame's 7-4-1 scheduling model, now made official policy in the NBC contract. Much has been written about this scheduling approach and much more should be written. After all, it has to be a bit embarrassing that tickets (and entire rows) not only are still available for purchase, but they are going for $14 and include a free dinner.

But for now, since it's All Hallow's Eve Eve, we'll pass the scheduling horror stories and go for the macabre, a look at the season to date for tomorrow's opponent: the Washington State Cougars.

Hat tip to reader Épée Fencer for digging up the reason ND is playing the Cougars as the inaugural "barnstorming" opponent. As you might have guessed based on other scheduling matchups, Washington State's AD is a former co-worker of ND's former AD Kevin White.

Sterk says he immediately began pestering White for a home-and-home series, but the Irish already had signed a deal with Washington, played USC every year and were hooked in with Stanford. So the best White could do was offer WSU a 2003 game in South Bend.

"We go there, we lose to them in overtime with some highly controversial calls," Sterk said of the 29-26 overtime decision, "and Kevin swore he would never play us again."

Until he had a conversion on Sterk's "deathbed."

Notre Dame was talking with NBC, its broadcast partner for six home games a year, about a seventh game that would be held at an off-campus site in 2009.

White thought of WSU, Sterk was able to move the Stanford game to the start of the year, and the deal was made for Halloween night. At first, they tried to get the game in New Orleans, where they both had deep ties, but the Superdome wasn't open for this weekend.

So the Alamodome game was made.

Since that arrangement, the Cougars, to be nice, have hit a rough patch. A 2-11 season in 2008 featured only one win against a D1 (FBS) school and even that was a squeaker over the 0-12 Huskies. The Cougs set NCAA records for defensive futility and haven't improved all that much so far for 2009 as they sit 1-6 with the only win being a 3 point victory over Southern Methodist.

If you refuse to shake the idea that this game will come down to the wire just like all the rest of them, then here are some news and notes about just exactly who will be lining up against the Fighting Irish and if there truly are any reasons at all to be concerned about this game.

Washington State has clearly studied ND's defense as they plan to use a tried and true method of offensive success by starting a true freshman at quarterback. Tuel certianly wasn't a recruit on the level of Tate Forcier or Matt Barkley; I didn't even mention him as one of the three possible starters for the Cougars in the position preview back in August. But nonetheless he is now the Cougars starting quarterback and is one of the very few players on the team giving them a slight bit of optimism. In his last game he threw for 385 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against the Cal defense. If this game isn't over by halftime, it will probably be because of Tuel and ND's maddening inability to slow down quarterbacks only a few months removed from senior prom. So far it seems that Tuel best chance to beat the Irish defense is to throw to Johnny Forzani. On one hand, Forzani is a junior college transfer from Canada and never played football in high school. On the other hand, he's extremely fast and a few weeks ago set a Pac-10 record with a 99 yard touchdown reception. Odds are he'll slip past ND's safeties and corners for at least one long reception.

On the other hand, Washington State has a horrendous defense (114th - rushing, 118th - passing) and just lost their best defensive player for the season.

Bland, who was the team’s second leading tackler, had been battling soreness in his knee throughout the majority of the year.
"(Bland’s) probably been our best football player on top to bottom on our defense in the last year and a half,” Head Coach Paul Wulff said.

A terrible defense with their best player out sounds like a potential banner day for Clausen, Tate, and the rest of the Irish offense. Even if Tuel has some success finding holes in the ND zone defense, it still probably won't matter.

The rest of the Cougar team has been an exercise in plugging gaps left by injuries. Consider this depressing factoid from their game notes (pdf).

So far this season WSU has missed 53 player games due to injury or illness. On the offensive line five players who have started this season have 13 missed games due to injury, while the defensive line has missed a total of 12 games from four players.

Scanning the Cougar depth chart (pdf), there are a lot of freshman and redshirt freshman either making the start or providing second string depth. Oh, and I'd expect at least one corny joke from Haden and Hammond about the name of WSU's backup strong safety Kyle McCartney.

If you're still looking for more, check out an informative Q&A between Keith Arnold of Inside the Irish and the entertaining WSU Football Blog. And for those fans who make the trip, feel free to drop us a line with a report from ND's first ever home game in Texas.

Statistically Speaking: Boston College

2009-10-30T11:50:00.001-04:00

It Came From the Game Notes

• 8 of ND's 15 forced turnovers have occurred inside ND's 25 yard line.

• No other FBS player has more 100-yard receiving games than Golden Tate.

• The only time since 1990 an Irish player has topped Kyle McCarthy's five interceptions was seven by Shane Walton in 2002.

Battle for 1st Down

Updated table here.

Following up on a strong performance against the Trojans on 1st down, ND put up the best 1st down win rate in the past two and a half seasons. Winning 68% of all first down battles, the Irish defense clearly set the stage for more 2nd and 3rd and longs than they have in a few years. Obviously that isn't enough as the Eagles were able to convert far too many of those 3rd and longs, but combined with the SC game, there has been a definite uptick against offenses to start a series of downs. The next step will be for the defense to carry that success over to 3rd down, but even if they are still maddeningly giving up too many long pass plays on 3rd down, I think all will agree that facing multiple 3rd and longs is better than continually having to face 3rd and short.

Most of the success came against the run, where the ND defense matched their SC performance by winning 70% of all 1st down runs. Against a team with a strong running game like BC, that's a notable mark. And against the pass, ND won 63% of all 1st downs, the first time all season ND has been over 50% against the pass.

As mentioned earlier, these numbers don't mean everything is going to be fine on defense. There is still plenty of work to be done. But they are perhaps positive indicators that the defense is at least pointed in the right direction and making progress.

Drivin'

Updated table here.

Folks might be upset with the defense letting another freshman quarterback have a career day, but the D balanced it out with an impressive clampdown on the BC running game. Overall, BC only picked up 41.6% of the yards available to them. This compares to Nevada (38.9%) and Purdue (37.9%) as the least efficient output against the Irish defense.

The Irish offense was another story, putting up the worst number of the year: 40.1%. That's a good 18 percentage points below where the season average was before the game. Many are looking for high point totals against Washington State, but the more important thing would be to see a high drive efficiency rating, especially in the first half.

Gimme M.O.E.

Updated table here.

Offensive penalties were still an issue, but another turnover free game kept the ND M.O.E. under 12% for only the 3rd time this season. With a score of 11%, ND played more mistake free than in games past, but the conservative BC defense kept everything in front of it and ND didn't attempt to test it too much.

On defense, BC tied Purdue and Washington for the worst M.O.E. score of the season with 18%. And like Purdue and Washington, the game went down to the wire. The odd thing is the difference between ND's and BC's M.O.E. was the 2nd largest of the season. Only the 9% difference against Nevada was larger and that game was a 35 point blowout win. Clearly just looking at M.O.E. isn't telling the whole picture of the ND-BC game.

Season Long Running Stats

Updated table here.

Boston College Photo and Video Galleries

2009-10-29T15:00:00.001-04:00

Crazy week here, so let's flush out the pipeline before Saturday's barnstorming battle in San Antonio. First up, pics.

Here's the roundup of pictures for this Saturday's win over the Eagles. Und.com has the collection of AP Photos and Irish Sports Report has their usual gallery of shots. After publishing 291 shots of the ND/Southern Cal game, there are 0 of the matchup with BC. ND's great gameday site has a series of shots from campus and on the field. For the picture of the week, I think the easy winner is Darius Fleming hitting BC's Shinskie as he threw the interception to Brian Smith that sealed the Irish victory.

Videos are up on nbcsports.com. Here's the 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter, and 4th quarter. Here are some of the game highlights to boot. If you want a better vantage point of just what exactly the ND defense was doing when BC converted a 4th and 17 late in the game, here's a near endzone view. If you're wondering what the deal was with Clausen and the BC receiver after the game, here's the bit that showed on NBC.

what the 2009 season feels like...

2009-10-26T09:08:00.006-04:00

Don't look down. Don't take a wrong step. Just keep putting one foot in front of the other.

Odds & Sons: Here We Go Again Edition

2009-10-25T14:05:00.007-04:00

This is not what you had planned. If you had told me before the season that Notre Dame would hold Boston College to 70 yards rushing and would force five BC turnovers, I would have wanted to know whether Weis let Dayne Crist pass in the fourth quarter or just the third quarter. Instead, the now-familiar struggles in the red zone, on special teams and in pass defense turned what could have been a blowout into a nailbiter.

Red-eyed and blue. The Irish were only able to cross the goal line on one of their four trips to the redzone, settling for two field goals and getting stopped on fourth down the other time. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the winning TD was scored from outside the red zone. On the first trip Parris dropped a pass that would have been a touchdown, and on the second trip a touchdown on a well-designed fake field goal was negated by a holding penalty. However, these are not isolated instances; the Irish offense has struggled in the red zone ever since Floyd was injured. When the Irish faced fourth and goal from the 1, I was hoping at the time that Weis would decide to kick the field goal. On further reflection, I don't have a problem with the call. Following the Washington game, I wrote that one of the ways settling for field goals hurt Notre Dame was the ensuing field position exchange. Following ND kickoffs the opponent will usually start their next drive with great field position due to ND's poor coverage, so it's even more important to get the seven point before kicking off. Even though BC stopped Hughes, the Eagles were so close to their own endzone that they had to run on their ensuing possession. Following three rushes as ineffectual as the rest of the BC running game that day, BC punted and the Irish started what would be the winning touchdown drive on BC's side of the field. As an aside, on the Hughes fourth down rush, it looked like Hughes was knocked out by a helmet-to-helmet hit. I'm not sure what I think is the appropriate call in this situation. On the one hand, things are so crowded in goal line situations that the defense is simply trying to hit any exposed part of the ballcarrier. It's tough to tell the defense to look our for the helmet in those scrums. On the other hand, it's a lot easier to make those allowances when you're not the one taking a shot to the brain.

Exchange. The Irish continued to lose field position on the exchange of possessions due to inferior special teams play. BC averaged 42.0 yards per punt to the Irish's 32.7 average. BC had two punts of 50+ yards; ND had none. BC had three punts downed inside the 20; ND had one. Additionally, Boston College's second touchdown drive started at the 44 following poor coverage on the opening kickoff of the second half. I would probably peg the cumulative field position advantage BC obtained through superior special teams play as comparable to a turnover or two.

Put it in the air. For the third time this season, a freshman quarterback put up big numbers against the Irish pass defense. It was to the point where I would have felt more confident about stopping BC on 3rd and 2 than 3rd and long. BC converted 7 of their 14 third and fourth downs. However, not one of these conversions came via the run. Boston College completed passes of 24, 23, 22, 7 (TD), 20, 33 and 28 yards on 3rd and 4th down. This would be a shocking performance from a freshman had we not already witnessed the success of Matt Barkley and Tate Forcier against the Irish defense. WIth each passing game (both by ND and Michigan), Forcier's success against the Irish looks less attributable to Forcier's skill and more like an indictment of the ND defense.

Roll the credits. Despite those negatives, the Irish still did enough things right to win. Armando Allen led all rushers with 98 yarrds on 21 carries. The defensive line and linebackers seem to really be improving over the course of the season. One week prior, Montel Harris rushed for 264 yards and 5 touchdowns on 27 carries. At the time, that was the highest rushing yardage in a single game this year in Division I-A. The Irish held Harris to just 38 yards on 22 carries. Randy Hart and Bryant Young have done a great job with a fairly young unit. Manti Te'o again led the Irish defense with 9 tackles (2.5 for loss) and added a pass break-up. His fantastic stop on the screen pass on BC's final drive should have been enough to seal the game. While the attacking defense gave up play after play through the air, the aggressive play helped generate the five turnovers. On the final interception, for example, Shinskie was under pressure from two defensive linemen and was about to get hit by Darius Fleming when he let go of the ball.

As frustrating as the game was, I have to remember the context. Following the Southern Cal game, I wrote about how the timing of this game worried me and the Irish did appear to come out sluggish. If you find yourself upset by the game, just remember how difficult it would have been to stomach Rich Gunnell's postgame antics and yet more post-whistle shots from Austin Giles had BC won.

Go Irish

2009-10-24T15:30:00.001-04:00

Beat Eagles!