El nino 2014

2014-06-07T21:05:00.001-07:00

SST Anomaly

2009-12-08T01:49:00.005-07:00

El nino 2014

2009-12-08T01:23:00.046-07:00

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

5 June 2014

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: The chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and reaches 80% during the fall and winter.

Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) expanded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during May 2014 (Fig. 1), though the collective atmospheric and oceanic state continued to reflect ENSO-neutral. All of the Niño indices increased during the month, with the latest weekly values between 0.6^oC and 1.6^oC (Fig. 2). In contrast, subsurface temperature anomalies decreased over the last two months (Fig. 3), but still reflect a large pool of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remain near average, except for westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific. At upper-levels, anomalous easterly winds have predominated over most of the equatorial Pacific. Unlike the previous month, convection was near average across most of the tropics (Fig. 5). The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive SSTs indicates ENSO-neutral, though the tropical Pacific continues to evolve toward El Niño.

Over the last month, the chance of El Niño and its ultimate strength weakened slightly in the models (Fig. 6). Regardless, the forecasters remain just as confident that El Niño is likely to emerge. If El Niño forms, the forecasters and most dynamical models, such as NCEP CFSv2, slightly favor a moderate-strength event during the Northern Hemisphere fall or winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 1.0^oC and 1.4^oC). However, significant uncertainty accompanies this prediction, which remains inclusive of a weaker or stronger event due to the spread of the models and their skill at these lead times. Overall, the chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and reaches 80% during the fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecastfor the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forumof CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 July 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ENSO Wrap-Up
Current state of the Pacific and Indian Ocean

Tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track

for El Niño in 2014

Issued on Tuesday 3 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014, with just over half of the

climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño will become established

by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of

an El Niño developing in 2014.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have

increased steadily since February, and are now greater than +0.5 °C in the

key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the

western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical

Pacific SST anomalies are yet to become established. As a result,

atmospheric indicators—such as the Southern Oscillation Index and

trade winds—have only shown a weak response.

For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall

over southern and eastern inland areas and above-normal daytime

temperatures over southern parts of the continent. It is not uncommon

to see some impacts prior to an event becoming fully established.

May rainfall was below normal across parts of eastern Australia and

maximum temperatures were above normal across much of the south and east.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest

the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models

surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD

events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts

of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.

Next update expected on 17 June 2014

Weather Underground WunderMap

2009-12-07T21:10:00.000-07:00

Weather Underground WunderMap

Download our toolbar

2009-12-07T17:50:00.003-07:00

Bluweather

El nino 2014

SST Anomaly

El nino 2014

ENSO Wrap-UpCurrent state of the Pacific and Indian Ocean

Tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track

for El Niño in 2014

Weather Underground WunderMap

Download our toolbar

ENSO Wrap-Up
Current state of the Pacific and Indian Ocean