Bob Edmonson's Dallas TX Property Values Blog

Dallas Home Sales Stats For January

2010-02-22T14:33:00.003-06:00

I hope your new year is off to a great start! The Dallas real estate market continues to be resilient, with soft sales overall but stable prices. Overall, area sales were down 6% in January compared to last year, and median sales prices were up 1%. Average sales prices were up a nice 7%. As is usually the case, there are parts of town which outperform and underperform the greater Dallas market. In December, we saw significant sales increases vs the previous December in several markets, and this trend continued in January in Southlake (+88% vs year ago), Park Cities (+48%), Uptown (+65%), and North Dallas (+100%). Of these, only Southlake saw an increase in median sales price (+8%) as well. For a little perspective, the 100% increase in sales in North Dallas translated to 28 homes sold vs 14 in Janary 2009. In Park Cities, there were 31 sales vs 21 sales a year ago.

Median sales prices were up a whopping 46% in Northwest Dallas, 44% in East Dallas and 26% in Richardson. This means more higher priced homes were bought in these markets in January than were bought last year. Sales were down in those three markets vs year ago, so we might assume there were some good deals that were snatched up. Until we see sales and median sales prices moving in the same upward direction, we know we are still in a soft market. But, soft markets make for good opportunities.

January is historically the slowest month of the year for closed transactions in Dallas, and this January was no exception. The spring market kicks in during February, and sales typically improve each month, peaking in June. Two new factors which exist this spring and could accelerate this trend are 1) the homebuyer credit and 2) the Federal Reserve's plan to phase out the short term credit support for the financial system and reduce large-scale purchases of Treasury and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac securities.

Already, the extension of the home buyer credit from last fall to end of April this year is seen boosting traffic and pending sales of homes to first time home buyers and other buyers who qualify. This traffic may be reflected more in March sales figures, given the start-to-finish timing of a home purchase. The liklihood of the Fed phasing out its support for artificially low interest rates could result in some interest rate creep from the current 5% level beginning in March or April. This in turn could spur home sales for those who had been sitting on the fence or considering leasing.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 6%, med price up 1%, DOM 84, down 2%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 6%, med price up 1%, DOM 84, down 2%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales up 65%, med price down 20%, DOM 99, down 43%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 65%, med price down 20%, DOM 99, down 43%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales up 48%, med price down 32%, DOM 139, down 3%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales up 48%, med price down 32%, DOM 139, down 3%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 17%, med price up 44%, DOM 63, down 24%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 17%, med price up 44%, DOM 63, down 24%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales up 100%, med price down 3%, DOM 107, down 32%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales up 100%, med price down 3%, DOM 107, down 32%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 9%, med price up 7%, DOM 107, up 43%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 9%, med price up 7%, DOM 107, up 43%.

Northwest Dallas:
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 21%, med price up 46%, DOM 89, down 3%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 21%, med price up 46%, DOM 89, down 3%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 4%, med price down 14%, DOM 97, up 70%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 4%, med price down 14%, DOM 97, up 70%.

Plano:
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 20%, med price up 10%, DOM 77, unchanged.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 20%, med price up 10%, DOM 77, unchanged.

Frisco:
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 10%, med price up 12%, DOM 79, up 3%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 10%, med price up 12%, DOM 79, up 3%.

Richardson:
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 4%, med price up 26%, DOM 47, down 46%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 4%, med price up 26%, DOM 47, down 46%.

Southlake:
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales up 88%, med price up 8%, DOM 118, up 64%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales up 88%, med price up 8%, DOM 118, up 64%.

Coppell:
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 45%, med price down 3%, DOM 37, down 33%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 45%, med price down 3%, DOM 37, down 33%.

Allen:
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales down 5%, med price down 1%, DOM 68, down 29%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales down 5%, med price down 1%, DOM 68, down 29%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Jan 10 vs 09: Sales unchanged, med price up 10%, DOM 100, down 10%.
YTD 10 vs 09: Sales unchanged, med price up 10%, DOM 100, down 10%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2010 vs 2009:
$200-299K (13.8% of sales): down 2%, 12 months inventory
$300-399K (6.1% of sales): up 6%, 15 months inventory
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): down 4%, 18 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): up 38%, 20 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): up 158%, 22 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): up 21%, 27 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): up 10%, 31 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 14%, 45 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.9% of sales): up 45%, 39 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2010 vs 2009:
$200-299K (14.6% of sales): 25 units vs 21 units year ago, 25 months inventory
$300-399K (2.3% of sales): 4 units vs 9 units year ago, 86 months
$400-499K (4.7% of sales): 8 units vs 4 units year ago, 20 months
$500-599K (0.6% of sales): 1 unit vs 1 unit year ago, 117 months
$600-699K (1.7% of sales): 3 units vs 0 units year ago, 16 months
$700-799K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 0 units year ago, n/a months
$800-899K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 0 units year ago, n/a months
$900-999K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 0 units year ago, n/a months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 1 unit vs 0 units year ago, 112 months

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
Dallas TX Homefinder Website
Dallas TX Home Values Blog
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for December

2010-01-10T12:33:00.004-06:00

The book is closed on 2009, with some nice momentum from a relatively strong 4th quarter. While Dallas sales overall were flat in December compared to a year ago, eight of the fourteen submarkets I track came in with higher sales than year ago, reinforcing a possible new trend begun in October for the new year. Overall, Dallas sales were down 1% from year ago December, with the median sales price up 2%. For the year, Dallas sales were down 11% and the median price down 12%. Keep in mind that the lower median price does not mean that YOUR house value dropped 12% in 2009. It means that more lower priced homes sold in '09 than in '08, in a large part reflecting the greater difficulty in financing higher priced homes, including condos.

The Home-Buyer Credit is credited with boosting the 4th quarter sales as well, and as originally offered was available only to first time home buyers. Along with the income limitations, this provided a boost for lower-to-mid range priced homes. December closings would have been November contracts, and with the credit originally due to expire at the end of November, it seems clear that the credit has had a huge influence on sales levels. That credit has been expanded and extended to the end of April for contracts and end of June for closings, so we might expect sales in 2010 to be skewed to the first half of the year.

Mortgage interest rates were very favorable in 2009 as well, continuing a trend dating back to 2002. No one really knows what to expect in 2010, as policies that would influence these rates are subject to change more frequently than before. Here is a little history of 30-year conventional financing mortgage rates at the end of the year:

'09: 5%
'08: 4 7/8%
'07: 5 3/4%
'06: 5 3/4%
'05: 5 3/4%
'04: 5 1/4%
'03: 5 5/8%
'02: 5 3/4%

In December, of the markets I track, these markets had increases in sales over year ago December: Uptown (+16%); North Dallas (+54%), Northwest Dallas (+90%); Plano (+20%); Coppell (+55%); Park Cities (+56%); Rockwall (+9%); and Southlake (+18%). These sales increases were not quite enough to bring these markets out of the red in 2009, but it was sure nice to see. Frisco was the only market not to be in negative territory for the year, finishing the year with sales unchanged from 2008. Looking back on '09, that is quite an accomplishment.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales down 1%, med price up 2%, DOM 84, up 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price down 12%, DOM 80, down 1%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales up 16%, med price up 15%, DOM 109, down 23%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price down 10%, DOM 106, down 9%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales up 56%, med price down 18%, DOM 146, up 62%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 12%, DOM 119, up 28%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales down 21%, med price up 17%, DOM 88, unchanged.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price down 23%, DOM 75, down 3%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales up 54%, med price down 37%, DOM 161, up 29%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price down 21%, DOM 118, up 15%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 10%, DOM 81, down 5%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price up 8%, DOM 70, down 7%.

Northwest Dallas:
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales up 90%, med price up 8%, DOM 82, up 21%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 1%, med price down 8%, DOM 81, up 7%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales down 6%, med price down 1%, DOM 78, down 20%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price down 5%, DOM 69, up 13%.

Plano:
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales up 10%, med price up 8%, DOM 69, down 20%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price down 3%, DOM 63, down 7%.

Frisco:
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales down 5%, med price unchanged, DOM 83, down 2%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 19%, DOM 78, down 12%.

Richardson:
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales up 41%, med price up 7%, DOM 42, down 19%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 6%, med price up 3%, DOM 53, down 16%.

Southlake:
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales up 18%, med price down 5%, DOM 145, up 49%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price up 4%, DOM 104, up 33%.

Coppell:
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales up 55%, med price down 8%, DOM 55, up 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price up 23%, DOM 51, down 4%.

Allen:
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales down 3%, med price up 12%, DOM 62, down 27%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price down 28%, DOM 74, down 10%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Dec 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price up 10%, DOM 115, down 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price down 25%, DOM 85, down 3%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (16.4% of sales): down 9%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.3% of sales): down 14%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (2.6% of sales): down 19%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 11%, 12 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 25%, 14 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 32%, 16 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 19%, 18 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 24%, 22 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.7% of sales): down 38%, 26 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.
$200-299K (15.0% of sales): 582 units vs 742 units year ago, 14 months inventory
$300-399K (5.8% of sales): 225 units vs 321 units year ago, 16 months
$400-499K (2.2% of sales): 84 units vs 124 units year ago, 22 months
$500-599K (0.9% of sales): 36 units vs 86 units year ago, 44 months
$600-699K (0.4% of sales): 17 units vs 36 units year ago, 44 months
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): 16 units vs 9 units year ago, 37 months
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 19 units vs 15 units year ago, 25 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 9 units vs 11 units year ago, 28 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 24 units vs 25 year ago, 60 months

Bob and Knoxie Edmonson

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Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
Dallas TX Homefinder Website
Dallas TX Home Values Blog
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Homes Sales Stats for November

2009-12-20T13:18:00.004-06:00

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November was a gang-buster month all over town, with significant sales increases in all submarkets. Overall, sales in the Dallas area were up 31%, and the median sales price was also up 5%. This was the second month in a row where home sales were up versus the year ago month. These nice percentage gains can be attributed in a large part to a truly awful November in 2008. Remember (how can we forget) the scary autumn we had after several large financial instutions failed in September, 2008. With most sales contracts having a 30-60 day closing schedule, many buyers slammed on the brakes in September, delaying home purchases and decimating November, 2008 sales figures. This year, we also had the first-time buyer's home credit which had a November 30 expiration date. This credit was extended and widened to reach additional buyers, but not until a few weeks ago, leading buyers on a rush to complete their home purchases by the end of November, 2009. With 401(k)'s rebounding, there was more confidence injected into the house-buying activity as well.

Going forward, we still have record low mortgage interest rates in our favor and an improving economy. I think we'll establish a new pattern of beating the previous year's sales with an upward pointing trend line. We may have hiccups along the way, but after this year, home sales can only get better. The interest rates, still hovering at 5% or slightly below, will not stick around forever, though. We already know the Fed is contemplating moving off the 0% discount rate as soon as it feels better about the economic recovery. The federal government's massive borrowing is crowding out many sources of financing while keeping rates artificially low. When the Fed begins to relax the controls over rates, we will long for the days of 5% mortgage money. Perhaps the best indicator of when rates may begin their upward march will be the unemployment rate. Keep an eye on this number. If it begins dropping below 10% and continues inching down for three months or so, we'll likely see a change in strategy among those controlling our money supply.

Back to the numbers below...keep in mind that these large percentage gains result from lower unit sales numbers. While sales more than doubled in the Lake Highlands area, that represents 43 homes sold vs 21 a year ago. In the Park Cities area, the 81% sales increase represents 56 sales vs 31 sales last November, or 25 additional homes sold. On median sales prices, Richardson and Coppell had nice increases, but most markets I track were all over the place. I think we know that prices are still relatively soft out there, and that sellers have had to ratchet down their asking prices this year to land the buyers. While Dallas overall saw a 5% increase in median sales prices, homes priced over $200,000 still represent only 26% of the Dallas market. Fully 74% of Dallas home sales are at price points below $200,000. First time home buyers and investors are probably paying more for these homes than they did a year ago.

December numbers will be out in three weeks, so we'll soon have a full record of this year 2009. A year many of us won't miss!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 31%, med price up 5%, DOM 77, down 5%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down unchanged, DOM 80, down 1%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 40%, med price down 17%, DOM 103, down 16%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 15%, DOM 105, down 8%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 81%, med price down 8%, DOM 158, up 39%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 25%, med price down 13%, DOM 116, up 23%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 51%, med price down 13%, DOM 68, down 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price down 11%, DOM 74, down 3%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 48%, med price down 46%, DOM 138, down 20%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 14%, med price down 10%, DOM 114, up 12%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 6%, med price unchanged, DOM 66, down 18%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price unchanged, DOM 69, down 7%.

Northwest Dallas:
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 34%, med price down 1%, DOM 72, down 9%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price up 1%, DOM 81, up 7%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 105%, med price down 21%, DOM 80, up 13%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price down 1%, DOM 68, up 15%.

Plano:
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 55%, med price unchanged, DOM 53, down 20%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down 5%, DOM 62, down 9%.

Frisco:
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 43%, med price down 9%, DOM 76, down 15%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 2%, DOM 78, down 12%.

Richardson:
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 41%, med price up 7%, DOM 42, down 19%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 6%, med price up 3%, DOM 53, down 16%.

Southlake:
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 60%, med price down 14%, DOM 113 down 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 203%, med price down 7%, DOM 101, up 31%.

Coppell:
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 70%, med price up 9%, DOM 47, up 11%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 14%, med price down 6%, DOM 50, down 7%.

Allen:
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 18%, med price down 3%, DOM 59, down 30%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price down 2%, DOM 74, down 10%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Nov 09 vs 08: Sales up 43%, med price unchanged, DOM 99, down 3%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price down 3%, DOM 92, up 3%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (16.4% of sales): down 10%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.3% of sales): down 15%, 9 months inventory
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): down 20%, 11 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 14%, 13 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 27%, 16 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 34%, 18 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 23%, 21 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 27%, 24 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.7% of sales): down 40%, 30 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.
$200-299K (15.1% of sales): 533 units vs 705 units year ago, 13 months inventory
$300-399K (5.8% of sales): 205 units vs 297 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.0% of sales): 70 units vs 117 units year ago, 29 months
$500-599K (0.8% of sales): 30 units vs 81 units year ago, 49 months
$600-699K (0.4% of sales): 15 units vs 33 units year ago, 49 months
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): 13 units vs 9 units year ago, 46 months
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 18 units vs 14 units year ago, 23 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 6 units vs 9 year ago, 59 months
$1MM + (0.7% of sales): 24 units vs 23 year ago, 54 months

Bob and Knoxie Edmonson

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
Dallas TX Homefinder Website
Dallas TX Home Values Blog
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for October

2009-11-20T17:35:00.003-06:00

October sales recorded double digit increases in our greater Dallas area, and these increases were realized in all but two of the submarkets I track each month. You have been following the news and know that the boost in sales can be partially attributed to the new home buyer tax credit, which had been scheduled to expire the end of November. But, given the 26% increase in sales in the Park Cities area, with the higher incomes disqualifying buyers for this credit, something else was going on. And, in October, we had one less sales day, with the 31st falling on a Saturday. It is far too early to predict a new upward trend in unit sales, but this was very nice news.

A quick look at the list of markets below could be summarized as "sales up and median prices down". But not every part of town behaves the same, as you know from reading this letter every month. North Dallas, Northwest Dallas, Northeast Dallas and Richardson had median price gains vs October year-ago to complement their double digit sales increases. Beautiful! Northwest Dallas and Richardson are showing gains in median sales price year-to-date as well. Overall, the softness in our prices remains, but with listing inventory shrinking and new home construction slowly making a comeback, our soft but stable prices should start finding some traction . (Which reminds me, when you read about home sales in the paper, be sure to recognize the difference in headlines that refer to "new home sales" or "new home starts" versus "existing home sales". For home buyers, "new" refers to new construction, not a re-sale which is "new" to the buyer. "New" home sales are definitely down from year ago numbers, but if they are listed in the MLS, they are incorporated into these statistics).

Interest rates for conventional financing are terrific, still hovering at 5% and even a little lower at times. Jumbo financing is slowly coming back, with rates less than 6% for 5-year and 7-year adjustable rate mortgages. If condo financing would loosen up a bit, we could get Uptown/Oak Lawn/Downtown to join in the rally as well. The home purchase tax credit referred to above was renewed and now extends to contracts written by end of April 2010. Existing home owners, not just first-timers, now qualify with specific rules, which widens the net for those able to take advantage. It is a good time to be a home buyer, as these numbers prove. Will November's sales activity build on October's good result? We'll know in a few weeks.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 11%, med price up 1%, DOM 76, down 6%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price down 1%, DOM 80, down 1%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales down 33%, med price down 20%, DOM 126, down 6%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 21%, med price down 16%, DOM 105, down 7%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 26%, med price down 15%, DOM 124, up 38%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 30%, med price down 13%, DOM 111, up 19%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 29%, med price down 20%, DOM 70, down 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down 11%, DOM 75, down 1%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 19%, med price up 29%, DOM 127, up 26%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 17%, med price down 8%, DOM 112, up 14%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 5%, med price down 1%, DOM 63, down 40%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price unchanged, DOM 70, down 5%.

Northwest Dallas:
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 18%, med price up 20%, DOM 80, down 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price up 2%, DOM 83, up 9%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 44%, med price up 7%, DOM 65, up 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price unchanged, DOM 67, up 16%.

Plano:
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 6%, med price down 8%, DOM 62, down 2%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 20%, med price down 4%, DOM 63, down 7%.

Frisco:
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 8%, med price down 2%, DOM 71, down 21%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 2%, med price unchanged, DOM 78, down 13%.

Richardson:
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 25%, med price up 13%, DOM 36, down 44%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price up 2%, DOM 55, down 13%.

Southlake:
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price down 10%, DOM 89, down 14%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price down 7%, DOM 100, up 35%.

Coppell:
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 11%, med price down 11%, DOM 74, up 61%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 6%, DOM 51, down 6%.

Allen:
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 32%, med price down 5%, DOM 79, down 14%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down 2%, DOM 75, down 7%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Oct 09 vs 08: Sales up 12%, med price down 6%, DOM 86, up 6%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 6%, med price down 4%, DOM 91, up 3%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (16.4% of sales): down 13%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.4% of sales): down 17%, 9 months inventory
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): down 22%, 12 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 17%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 30%, 18 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 36%, 19 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 26%, 23 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 26%, 25 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.7% of sales): down 42%, 32 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.
$200-299K (15.2% of sales): 479 units vs 671 units year ago, 14 months inventory
$300-399K (5.8% of sales): 183 units vs 277 units year ago, 19 months
$400-499K (2.1% of sales): 65 units vs 110 units year ago, 31 months
$500-599K (078% of sales): 23 units vs 77 units year ago, 62 months
$600-699K (0.5% of sales): 15 units vs 31 units year ago, 48 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 11 units vs 8 units year ago, 50 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 14 units vs 14 units year ago, 25 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 3 units vs 9 year ago, 120 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 18 units vs 21 year ago, 67 months

Bob and Knoxie Edmonson

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
Dallas TX Homefinder Website
Dallas TX Home Values Blog
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for September

2009-10-09T16:20:00.005-05:00

Dallas saw 6020 single family homes sold in September and 359 condos and townhomes, across all prices points and in all suburbs. Homes are selling, although it may not seem like it, with the press being what it is. We certainly have been subjected to a constant drumbeat of negative housing data, a lot of it on a national scale. But three factors have been working to improve the picture: good values, record low interest rates and a first-time homebuyer tax credit. Prices are flat, with the median sales price across Dallas down 1% through the 3rd quarter, compared to the first 9 months last year. Mortgage interest rates for conventional loans (up to $417,000) were below 5% as of this writing. This is a great combination of factors, creating a great opportunity for buyers in the market. In this most recent month of September, over half the submarkets I track (below) showed GAINS in sales versus the same month a year ago. The other markets with lower sales all showed improvement versus their YTD rate of sales.

In September, the median home sales price for greater Dallas was 2% ABOVE last September. Uptown's median sales price was up 18%, Richardson's up 3%, and North Dallas and Plano had 2% gains in median sales price vs last September, Park Cities and Rockwall up 1%. Maybe we are turning the corner. On the other hand, we know that about 5% of Dallas homes are either in foreclosure or with owners delinquent in their payments. And, we have a tight credit market in the higher end price points. And, still, we have a weak economy. But it looks like we are working our way through it.

The Fed has been cooperating by buying up 80% of the mortgage-backed securites issued by the likes of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since Fannie and Freddie bought nearly all the new mortgages made this year, the Fed has effectively acquired most of the home loans made in the U.S. That has helped soften the decline in home prices nationwide and sparked a refinancing boom. When the Fed discontinues this program, perhaps in March of next year, mortgage rates will likely begin their move upward. A 1% increase in mortgage rates, say from 5% to 6%, would require roughly a 10% decline in home price to maintain the same monthly payment. Since Dallas area prices have been the most stable of any major metro in the country, there is a chance that the buyer waiting for lower home prices may realize a higher payment when he/she does commit--and it is said we "live in the payment, not the price". An interesting bet!

There were some encouraging signs in our local market in September. Let's build on this momentum!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price up 2%, DOM 76, down 4%
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 17%, med price down 1%, DOM 80, unchanged.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 11%, med price up 18%, DOM 87, down 37%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 15%, DOM 103, down 7%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price up 1%, DOM 143, up 61%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 34%, med price down 13%, DOM 109, up 17%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 2%, med price down 4%, DOM 81, up 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price down 10%, DOM 76, unchanged.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 17%, med price up 2%, DOM 135, up 41%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 13%, DOM 109, up 12%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price unchanged, DOM 66, up 22%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price unchanged, DOM 70, down 1%.

Northwest Dallas:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 11%, med price down 23%, DOM 82, up 21%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price down 1%, DOM 83, up 11%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 24%, med price down 16%, DOM 82, up 19%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price unchanged, DOM 67, up 16%.

Plano:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price up 2%, DOM 59, down 11%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 4%, DOM 63, down 7%.

Frisco:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 21%, med price down 6%, DOM 69, down 26%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price down 1%, DOM 79, down 11%.

Richardson:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price up 3%, DOM 44, down 27%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price up 1%, DOM 57, down 10%.

Southlake:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 4%, DOM 93, up 11%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 6%, DOM 101, up 40%.

Coppell:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 11%, DOM 29, down 42%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 20%, med price down 7%, DOM 48, down 11%.

Allen:
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price down 2%, DOM 68, down 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 2%, DOM 74, down 9%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Sep 09 vs 08: Sales up 1%, med price up 1%, DOM 99, up 9%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price down 3%, DOM 92, up 3%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:

$200-299K (16.5% of sales): down 16%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.6% of sales): down 18%, 9 months inventory
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): down 23%, 12 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 18%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): down 32%, 18 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 39%, 20 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 29%, 25 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 26%, 25 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.8% of sales): down 42%, 33 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.

$200-299K (15.7% of sales): 438 units vs 652 units year ago, 14 months inventory
$300-399K (5.9% of sales): 166 units vs 252 units year ago, 20 months
$400-499K (2.2% of sales): 63 units vs 95 units year ago, 32 months
$500-599K (0.8% of sales): 22 units vs 69 units year ago, 62 months
$600-699K (0.5% of sales): 14 units vs 28 units year ago, 52 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 9 units vs 8 units year ago, 62 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 12 units vs 13 units year ago, 28 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 3 units vs 9 year ago, 99 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 17 units vs 19 year ago, 65 months

Bob and Knoxie Edmonson

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for August

2009-09-12T18:55:00.002-05:00

Prices held steady in August vs year ago, with no change in the overall median sales price. This is helpful when Dallas is being compared to other markets, as Dallas is still one of the best performers price-wise. However, there is a lot variation in different parts of town, as you know from reading this letter. Year to date, three of the fourteen submarkets I track reported double-digit declines in median sales price: Uptown/Oak Lawn (-18%), North Dallas (-13%) and Park Cities Area (-13%). Four of the fourteen submarkets are even or ahead of year ago for the first eight months: Northwest Dallas (+5%), Northeast Dallas (+2%), Richardson (+1%) and Far North Dallas (even). The remaining seven submarkets reported in with median sales price declines in the single digit range year-to-date.

While home sales are still lagging behind last year's figures, down 19% year-to-date and down 15% August over August, sales in the Uptown/Oak Lawn area broke into positive territory for the first time in many months, up 3% vs last August. It is still taking an average of 105 days to sell a home in the Uptown area, matched by the Park Cities with the highest days on market. August sales were also up in Frisco and Rockwall, by 2% and 1% respectively.

The reasons for much of this disparity is the same as I reported last month, mostly tied to the home price. Jumbo loans are still more expensive and harder to get, although several lenders are trying hard to make them more affordable and available. Conventional loans are still available at 5% today, a great rate, compared to around 6 1/4% last year at this time. These low interest rates for loans under $417,000 have caught on with buyers, one reason the months' inventory figures for homes under $500,000 are reasonable. In fact, single family homes priced in the $200's (Dallas' sweet spot) have just 6.7 months' inventory, considered "normal" in the best of times. A quick look at the sales by price point (below) shows a steadily higher progression of month's inventory as single family home prices increase. Months' inventory is considerably higher for condos and townhomes, as condos at the luxury end are still in an over-built condition, and condo financing rules toughened earlier this year.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price unchanged, DOM 78, up 3%
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 2%, DOM 81, unchanged.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales up 3%, med price down 27%, DOM 114, up 6%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 21%, med price down 18%, DOM 105, down 3%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 17%, med price down 19%, DOM 117, up 10%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 13%, DOM 105, up 13%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 2%, med price down 4%, DOM 80, up 14%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 17%, med price down 9%, DOM 75, down 1%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down 17%, DOM 101, down 13%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 15%, DOM 105, up 8%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 13%, med price up 2%, DOM 50, down 30%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price unchanged, DOM 70, down 4%.

Northwest Dallas:
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales up 17%, med price down 1%, DOM 66, down 6%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price up 5%, DOM 83, up 9%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price down 19%, DOM 61, up 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price up 2%, DOM 64, up 12%.

Plano:
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price down 9%, DOM 64, unchanged.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 4%, DOM 64, down 6%.

Frisco:
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales up 2%, med price down 2%, DOM 75, down 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 6%, med price unchanged, DOM 81, down 9%.

Richardson:
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 2%, DOM 52, down 9%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 14%, med price up 1%, DOM 59, down 8%.

Southlake:
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price down 8%, DOM 99, up 24%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 7%, DOM 102, up 44%.

Coppell:
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 13%, med price up 2%, DOM 54, up 15%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 21%, med price down 6%, DOM 50, down 9%.

Allen:
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales down 2%, med price down 8%, DOM 72, unchanged.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 3%, DOM 75, down 7%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Aug 09 vs 08: Sales up 1%, med price down 3%, DOM 99, up 39%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price down 5%, DOM 91, up 2%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:

$200-299K (16.6% of sales): down 17%, 7 months inventory
$300-399K (6.7% of sales): down 20%, 10 months inventory
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): down 23%, 12 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 20%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 34%, 19 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 41%, 22 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 30%, 27 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 30%, 28 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.8% of sales): down 43%, 34 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.
$200-299K (15.7% of sales): 383 units vs 558 units year ago, 14 months inventory
$300-399K (6.0% of sales): 145 units vs 226 units year ago, 21 months
$400-499K (2.3% of sales): 55 units vs 82 units year ago, 34 months
$500-599K (0.7% of sales): 18 units vs 64 units year ago, 64 months
$600-699K (0.4% of sales): 11 units vs 25 units year ago, 57 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 6 units vs 7 units year ago, 75 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 10 units vs 11 units year ago, 30 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 3 units vs 8 year ago, 80 months
$1MM + (0.4% of sales): 9 units vs 16 year ago, 180 months

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for July

2009-08-23T21:19:00.001-05:00

Last month, I pointed out that the overall Dallas market, after many months with negative sales price comparisons to the previous year, bobbed to surface with "no change" in median sales price vs the previous year. Dallas had been in a 1-3% below year-ago levels mode for some time. Well, in July we made positive territory, obviously an even better achievement, with a PLUS 3% median price change. The last couple of months represents a short trend line, but we like the direction! And, to complement this result, the Wall Street Journal reported in this weekend's edition (Aug 22nd) that a survey conducted by First American CoreLogic places just four major US markets in positive price change territory in June: Houston (+3.2%), Dallas (+1.7%), Austin (+1.0%) and San Antonio (+0.5%). Hmmm, they are all in Texas! The next best city was Denver (-2.3%) and it fell off rapidly from there, all the way down to Fort Myers, FL (-29.8%). If I were more technologically astute, I would imbed this neat little graph from the newspaper in this message.

While this is very good news, not all our submarkets in Dallas could claim positive results in July. A quick glance below shows some real disparity among different parts of town with respect to median sales price changes vs year ago numbers. The markets that are up, including Far North Dallas, Northwest Dallas, Northeast Dallas, Plano, Frisco, Richardson (wow, +10%!) and Allen tend to be moderately priced areas for the most part where conventional financing reigns. This is an important point. Conventional loans top out at $417,000; beyond this borrowing level, you have "jumbo" loans. Conventional loans are still guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie, and lenders can still "ship" their loans off to these agencies. Jumbo loans are not guaranteed by the government, and lenders are very choosy as to whom they will make these loans. Why? Because they have to keep them on their books. As a result, there is a limit at any one financial institution as to how many jumbo loans can be made, and the lenders will charge a higher interest rate to offset their risk in keeping them in house. So, you can buy a home up to $521,250, put 20% down and have a $417,000 first lien mortgage. You might think this should be reflected in sales volume, but sales volume is still down in these areas. There are fewer buyers, because fewer buyers have the 20% down payment and higher credit scores. Second liens are also expensive (higher rates), and of course, there are no more stated income loans. Homes that are selling appear to be selling for more than those of last year, meaning, I think, that the fewer people that are buying are buying slightly pricier homes than year ago.

As we get a little closer to downtown Dallas, from Preston Hollow south, the picture changes. North Dallas, Park Cities and the surrounding area, Lakewood and Uptown/Victory are generally more expensive markets. They represent shorter commutes to downtown, are closer to more choices for restaurants and entertainment, and in the case of Park Cities, offer a superior school district. Median prices here are down 20% (Park Cities), 22% (Uptown), and 29% (North Dallas). There is no less demand for these areas. There are just fewer buyers with the wherewithall to buy. Compounding the problem for Uptown is the dominant product type of townhomes and condos. Condo financing is also very difficult to get, so condos priced above $521,250 face the double whammy of jumbo financing and condo financing.

A check of the sales by price for condos makes this pretty clear. Condos (and townhomes) priced above $500,000 saw a total of...5 closings in July. Anywhere in Dallas. It's really almost unbelievable. The housing market desperately needs some help from Big Brother in this category.

We're thankful there is plenty of "affordable" housing in Dallas. The really nice transportation network is the reason, allowing people willing to drive a little longer and not face massive tie-ups everyday, to live further out in less expensive homes. We are also thankful that our economy is diversified and relatively healthy and our state is well managed. Otherwise, we could have some of those California or Florida numbers!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price up 3%, DOM 78, up 1%
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 1%, DOM 81, unchanged.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 22%, DOM 114, up 5%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price down 17%, DOM 104, down 4%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 20%, DOM 104, up 27%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 37%, med price down 11%, DOM 102, up 12%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price down 5%, DOM 69, up 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 8%, DOM 74, down 3%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 31%, med price down 29%, DOM 92, down 14%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 18%, DOM 105, up 11%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales up 27%, med price up 1%, DOM 64, unchanged.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price unchanged, DOM 73, unchanged.

Northwest Dallas:
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price up 9%, DOM 77, up 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price up 3%, DOM 84, up 11%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales up 25%, med price up 7%, DOM 72, up 38%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price up 4%, DOM 65, up 14%.

Plano:
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price up 1%, DOM 61, down 12%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 25%, med price down 4%, DOM 64, down 7%.

Frisco:
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales up 2%, med price up 2%, DOM 73, down 13%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price unchanged, DOM 81, down 10%.

Richardson:
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 1%, med price up 10%, DOM 48, down 11%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price up 1%, DOM 60, down 8%.

Southlake:
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 14%, med price down 3%, DOM 132, up 71%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 26%, med price down 6%, DOM 103, up 49%.

Coppell:
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price down 7%, DOM 42, up 8%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price down 8%, DOM 47, down 16%.

Allen:
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price up 3%, DOM 89, down 3%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 2%, DOM 76, down 7%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Jul 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price down 1%, DOM 95, up 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down 5%, DOM 89, down 3%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (16.4% of sales): down 19%, 7 months inventory
$300-399K (6.7% of sales): down 20%, 10 months inventory
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): down 25%, 13 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 24%, 16 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 33%, 20 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 40%, 23 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 28%, 30 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 31%, 30 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.8% of sales): down 44%, 37 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 09 vs 08:
$200-299K (16.2% of sales): 338 units vs 502 units year ago, 15 months inventory
$300-399K (6.1% of sales): 128 units vs 200 units year ago, 21 months
$400-499K (2.3% of sales): 49 units vs 71 units year ago, 33 months
$500-599K (0.7% of sales): 15 units vs 56 units year ago, 66 months
$600-699K (0.4% of sales): 9 units vs 21 units year ago, 57 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 4 units vs 7 units year ago, 116 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 7 unit vs 9 units year ago, 41 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 2 unit vs 8 year ago, 98 months
$1MM + (0.3% of sales): 6 unit vs 12 year ago, 142 months

---
Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for June

2009-07-17T10:38:00.019-05:00

The first half of the year ended with a little boost to sales prices, as median sales prices were up in June in five of the markets I track (below). And, for the first time in many months, the median sales price change in Dallas overall was not a negative number! The median sales price for June was unchanged from June of 2008, a nice achievement which speaks to the resiliency of our market. The median sales price for the six months year-to-date is down 3% from this time last year, still among the best performances of the major cities around the country.

The latest study from mortgage insurance firm PMI Group ranks Dallas among the U.S. cities least likely to see a drop in home prices. Dallas’ housing market has only a 3.8% risk of lower home prices two years from now, PMI analysts said, compared with a 65.5% risk of overall lower home prices in the 50 largest U.S. cities. And, Dallas ranks among the top metro areas based on expected home price performance this year, according to Local Market Monitor, a North Carolina based housing sector consultant. "Home values for the Dallas-Plano-Irving Metropolitan Statistical Area are forecast to remain constant for the next twelve months," a company spokesman said. "This compares to a 6.6 percent forecast decrease in home prices nationally."

Home prices in the Dallas area are almost 32 percent undervalued, according to the most recent study by IHS Global Insight. The same report shows that prices here have remained virtually unchanged over the year ending with first quarter 2009. Dallas is among a handful of Texas markets the Massachusetts based firm considers among the country’s most undervalued. "What that means is that prices could go up without any long lasting damage to the market", a spokesman said.

Relocation.com, a leading online consumer resource for moving, has compiled its list of "Best Cities for a Fresh Start". The study considered consumer requests for moving quotes to that city, economic growth prospects, home affordability and community strength as reflected by volunteerism rates, among other factors. Dallas ranked second nationwide.

The National Association of Realtors reports that pending home sales show a sustained uptrend, rising for four consecutive months, with housing affordability at an all time high. The last time there were four consecutive monthly gains was in October 2004. NAR’s chief economist cautions there could be delays in the number of contracts that go to closing, falling through due to new appraisal rules. "Rises in contract activity show buyers are becoming more active, even as they face more stringent underwriting standards."

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 14%, med price unchanged, DOM 77, up 1%
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 3%, DOM 82, unchanged.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 17%, DOM 95, up 2%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 15%, DOM 103, down 4%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price down 12%, DOM 84, down 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 37%, med price down 7%, DOM 103, up 11%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price down 4%, DOM 70, up 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 20%, med price down 11%, DOM 75, down 4%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales up 5%, med price down 7%, DOM 114, up 58%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 17%, DOM 108, up 19%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales up 7%, med price down 9%, DOM 68, down 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price down 2%, DOM 76, up 1%.

Northwest Dallas:
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price up 1%, DOM 73, up 35%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price up 1%, DOM 84, up 8%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price up 7%, DOM 63, up 37%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price up 2%, DOM 64, up 10%.

Plano:
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 21%, med price up 1%, DOM 60, up 2%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 28%, med price down 5%, DOM 65, down 6%.

Frisco:
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 14%, med price up 4%, DOM 76, down 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price unchanged, DOM 84, down 9%.

Richardson:
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 13%, med price down 2%, DOM 54, down 19%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 27%, med price down 2%, DOM 67, down 1%.

Southlake:
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 28%, med price down 6%, DOM 84, up 27%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 28%, med price down 6%, DOM 97, up 45%.

Coppell:
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 30%, med price up 23%, DOM 44, down 15%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 9%, DOM 48, down 19%.

Allen:
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price down 1%, DOM 59, down 19%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price down 4%, DOM 79, down 5%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Jun 09 vs 08: Sales down 2%, med price down 11%, DOM 95, up 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 13%, med price down 6%, DOM 91, down 3%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (15.8% of sales): down 23%, 8 months inventory
$300-399K (6.5% of sales): down 25%, 11 months inventory
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): down 28%, 14 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 28%, 18 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 36%, 23 months inventory
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): down 43%, 27 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 31%, 30 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 30%, 31 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.8% of sales): down 42%, 39 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.
$200-299K (16.3% of sales): 274 units vs 420 units year ago, 15 months inventory
$300-399K (6.1% of sales): 102 units vs 164 units year ago, 25 months
$400-499K (2.5% of sales): 42 units vs 46 units year ago, 39 months
$500-599K (0.8% of sales): 13 units vs 46 units year ago, 76 months
$600-699K (0.5% of sales): 9 units vs 19 units year ago, 47 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 3 units vs 7 units year ago, 130 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 6 units vs 8 units year ago, 33 months
$900-999K (0.1% of sales): 2 units vs 7 year ago, 93 months
$1MM + (0.2% of sales): 4 units vs 11 year ago, 178 months

---
Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.dallastexashomefinder.com/
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for May

2009-06-26T11:07:00.004-05:00

Last month I wrote that I couldn't wait to see the May sales numbers, as I detected some strengthening in real estate sales from my day-to-day experience. There was more buzz in my office, and I was certainly busier than earlier this year. That feeling was borne out, as there were 629 more single family home sales in May than in April, and May's total number of single family home sales, 5,971 homes, was the highest total since September. However...the sales numbers for May compared to a year ago were not too exciting, down 24% from 7,894 homes sold. (In May of 2007, there were 8,817 homes sold). From this perspective, the percentage-change trend line has not moved much. Last year, there were over 7000 homes sold in each of June, July, and August, so I expect we will continue to see negative year-over-year percentage changes for the summer months. By fall, we should begin to level out, as we catch up to the first anniversary of the financial debacle.

Median prices for the greater Dallas market seem to be holding on, as they have been for some time now. The Brookings Institution places Dallas in the top 3 markets in the country for price stability. In May, overall median prices in Dallas were down a scant 1%. We're off 4% for the year to date. Far North Dallas, Northwest Dallas and Northeast Dallas continue to show median prices year-to-date above year ago levels, which seems like an incredible achievement in the face of all the adversity out there. Once again, we're glad to be in Dallas.

Forbes Magazine picked Dallas to be one of the cities to enjoy the quickest recovery in home sales, when the economy begins to turn around. May housing starts nationally were up 17%, rising for the third month in a row, per the NAHB's chief economist. Some keys to watch to help predict the turnaround in home sales locally will be unemployment on our local level, mortgage rates, and federal financing rules.

Confidence in one's job security plays a big role, of course, and also influences buy vs lease decisions. Mortgage rates have climbed a bit, reflecting either a concern for inflation down the road or that the economy is on the mend, and the increase has slowed refinancing but not new loan originations. Congress is taking another look at financing rules, especially those influencing condos. Some easing here is definitely needed, as the pendulum has swung way too far to the other side on this. And, if banks and mortgage companies could find buyers in the secondary market for their jumbo loans, we could see some major improvement in sales of higher priced homes.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 1%, DOM 79, unchanged.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 4%, DOM 83, down 1%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 6%, DOM 96, down 9%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 28%, med price down 15%, DOM 106, down 5%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 31%, med price down 9%, DOM 106, up 1%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 44%, med price down 6%, DOM 111, up 17%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price up 9%, DOM 70, down 14%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price down 15%, DOM 77, down 5%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 10%, DOM 95, down 12%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 25%, med price down 15%, DOM 107, up 10%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 3%, DOM 61, down 3%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price up 1%, DOM 77, up 1%.

Northwest Dallas:

May 09 vs 08: Sales up 20%, med price down 9%, DOM 78, down 5%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price up 2%, DOM 88, up 2%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 23%, med price up 8%, DOM 53, up15%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 33%, med price up 3%, DOM 62, up 3%.

Plano:

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 7%, DOM 55, down 11%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 30%, med price down 7%, DOM 66, down 8%.

Frisco:

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 3%, DOM 75, down 17%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price down 1%, DOM 86, down 10%.

Richardson:

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 13%, med price down 2%, DOM 54, down 19%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 27%, med price down 2%, DOM 67, down 1%.

Southlake:

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price down 4%, DOM 105, up 91%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 26%, med price down 6%, DOM 100, up 47%.

Coppell:

May 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 20%, DOM 42, down 36%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 15%, DOM 48, down 23%.

Allen:

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 28%, med price down 4%, DOM 71, unchanged.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 27%, med price down 5%, DOM 86, unchanged.

Rockwall (incl Heath):

May 09 vs 08: Sales down 4%, med price down 5%, DOM 94, down 9%.

YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price down 4%, DOM 90, down 5%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:

$200-299K (15.3% of sales): down 25%, 10 months inventory

$300-399K (6.3% of sales): down 27%, 13 months inventory

$400-499K (2.7% of sales): down 32%, 16 months inventory

$500-599K (1.2% of sales): down 34%, 23 months inventory

$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 38%, 28 months inventory

$700-799K (0.4% of sales): down 47%, 32 months inventory

$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 34%, 33 months inventory

$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 33%, 37 months inventory

$1MM and up (0.8% of sales): down 45%, 44 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.

$200-299K (16.6% of sales): 215 units vs 362 units year ago, 17 months inventory

$300-399K (6.2% of sales): 81 units vs 129 units year ago, 25 months

$400-499K (2.4% of sales): 31 units vs 46 units year ago, 43 months

$500-599K (0.8% of sales): 11 unit vs 41 units year ago, 77 months

$600-699K (0.2% of sales): 3 units vs 16 units year ago, 133 months

$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 3 units vs 6 units year ago, 107 months

$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 5 unit vs 6 units year ago, 35 months

$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 2 unit vs 6 year ago, 85 months

$1MM + (0.3% of sales): 4 unit vs 10 year ago, 167 months

---
Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.dallastexashomefinder.com/
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for April

2009-05-25T13:42:00.004-05:00

As I write this on the eve of Memorial Day, I hope yours is enjoyable and meaningful. Yes, I am a little later than usual with my report this month, but that is due in part to a pretty busy May. After a lackluster start to the spring selling season, I am looking forward to seeing what May brings, statistically speaking. Ever hopeful, we Realtors like to conjure up scenarios, such as, "Wouldn't it be great if the spring season was really three months late getting started this year?" I hope I don't have to eat my words, but I have a hunch May will look much better than the preceding four months. But, this is about April, and a quick scan of the submarkets' performance last month looks a lot like February and March. Sales volume is still way down from year ago levels. City-wide, median sales prices are down just 4% year to date, which, as you have read in the papers, places Dallas at the top of the national list of cities for resiliency. We are hanging tough with value, thanks to an economy with the fewest job losses in the country. We seem to be riding out the recession well enough, and some buyers are recognizing the opportunity of favorable interest rates and motivated sellers to move forward with their home purchases. Sellers today also realize that while they may take a bit of a haircut on the sale of their home, they should be able to make it up on the purchase of the new home.

In the single family home market, sales in each price bracket over $200,000 are off somewhat uniformly from their year-ago levels. See the chart below. This runs counter to the current theory that the higher-priced homes requiring jumbo financing (>$417,000 borrowed) were responsible for dragging the numbers down. Jumbo loans are about 17% more expensive than conventional loans (6% vs 5%), but sales are down across the board by double digits. In the condo and townhome market, though, there is a marked difference when price comes into play. Sales of these property types over $500,000 are quite anemic. Just 7 sales all year in the $500's and only 18 sales all year at any price above $500K--in all of Dallas! This hits home with me, as I have 7 units remaining in a terrific 8-unit townhome project in the State Thomas Historical District (Uptown) priced in the $500's which are looking for a few good owners.

Overall, we have a little over 8 month's supply of homes in all price brackets city-wide, a little higher than the 6-month rule of thumb for a healthy market. Not too bad, but supported by the entry level home market. And the Far North Dallas, Lake Highlands, and Northwest Dallas areas have recorded median price increases through the first four months of the year--excellent progress. Now, I am looking forward to the May numbers. I have a feeling we'll see improvement!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 4%, DOM 79, down 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 4%, DOM 85, down 1%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 20%, DOM 104, up 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 31%, med price down 20%, DOM 106, down 6%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 50%, med price up 3%, DOM 108, up 38%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 48%, med price down 4%, DOM 114, up 24%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price down 14%, DOM 78, up 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 23%, DOM 79, down 2%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 17%, med price down 5%, DOM 86, up 21%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 16%, DOM 111, up 21%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 11%, DOM 62, down 27%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price up 1%, DOM 82, up 2%.

Northwest Dallas:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 8%, DOM 81, up 17%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price up 2%, DOM 94, up 8%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 11%, DOM 58, up 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price up 2%, DOM 66, up 2%.

Plano:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 32%, med price down 9%, DOM 63, unchanged..
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 32%, med price down 7%, DOM 70, down 7%.

Frisco:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 11%, med price down 2%, DOM 81, down 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, med price unchanged, DOM 88, down 10%.

Richardson:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 52%, med price down 8%, DOM 59, down 3%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 31%, med price down 3%, DOM 72, up 6%.

Southlake:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 34%, med price down 12%, DOM 120, up 64%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 7%, DOM 97, up 33%.

Coppell:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 24%, DOM 45, down 10%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 25%, med price down 12%, DOM 52, down 13%.

Allen:
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, med price down 14%, DOM 81, up 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 26%, med price down 7%, DOM 90, down 1%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Apr 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 6%, DOM 78, down 9%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 20%, med price down 8%, DOM 89, down 4%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (14.7% of sales): down 27%, 11 months inventory
$300-399K (5.9% of sales): down 30%, 14 months inventory
$400-499K (2.6% of sales): down 33%, 18 months inventory
$500-599K (1.1% of sales): down 35%, 25 months inventory
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): down 30%, 29 months inventory
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): down 41%, 32 months inventory
$800-899K (0.2% of sales): down 33%, 37 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 37%, 42 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.7% of sales): down 45%, 49 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.
$200-299K (16.0% of sales): 147 units vs 276 units year ago, 20 months inventory
$300-399K (6.0% of sales): 55 units vs 96 units year ago, 32 months
$400-499K (2.9% of sales): 27 units vs 33 units year ago, 37 months
$500-599K (0.8% of sales): 7 unit vs 33 units year ago, 97 months
$600-699K (0.2% of sales): 2 units vs 12 units year ago, 174 months
$700-799K (0.1% of sales): 1 units vs 4 units year ago, 220 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 3 unit vs 4 units year ago, 65 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 2 unit vs 4 year ago, 54 months
$1MM + (0.3% of sales): 3 unit vs 7 year ago, 177 months

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.dallastexashomefinder.com/
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Homes Sales Stats for March

2009-04-21T12:01:00.004-05:00

The first quarter of 2009 is behind us, with inklings of improvement in the Dallas real estate market beginning to appear. With home sellers looking for buyers and buyers looking for value, we should see increasing traffic this spring. An informal poll of Realtors around the office and in my networking group confirm more activity since just before the Easter weekend. Improved traffic is going to be a function of buyer confidence and buyers' views of the opportunity now before us. Mortgage interest rates for conventional financing ($417,000 loans or less) are still at historic lows, hovering in the high 4% range for good credit buyers. Jumbo financing seems to be improving as well. Call it real estate's version of the Red Apple Sale, with a 9 month's supply of single family homes and an 18 month's supply of condos and townhomes on the market. Dallas saw 5353 single family home sales in March, or almost 13,000 for the first quarter. March's total represents a nice increase over February, as expected, but still 20% below year ago levels. The first quarter total was 25% below year ago levels.

Sellers looking to buy will likely sell for less than hoped for, but that same seller will be a buyer looking to pay less than planned. In a move-up mode, that buyer who sold his house for 10% less than expected can make it up and more if paying 10% less than planned on the new property. Higher priced markets are feeling the pinch more than the lower-priced markets, due to the difference in interest rates for conventional vs jumbo financing, and the need for hefty down payments. Median sales prices are lower, too, as the higher priced homes rate of sale is lower than that of the the moderately priced home. The sweet spot for sales is in the $250K to $299K range.

Overall median prices are down 6% in March and 8% for the first quarter. In Far North Dallas, Lake Highlands and Southlake, median prices were actually up in March. In Lake Highlands and Frisco, median prices were up for the first quarter vs year ago. Good job! North Dallas, Park Cities area, East Dallas and Uptown saw double-digit median price declines for the first quarter, reflecting the slower activity in the higher end home sales. There was some good news in North Dallas, where sales in March were up 13% over March a year ago.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell, 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 20%, med price down 6%, DOM 85, down 5%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 25%, med price down 8%, DOM 86, down 2%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 28%, med price down 16%, DOM 93, down 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 19%, DOM 105, down 12%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 39%, med price down 28%, DOM 108, up 8%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 45%, med price down 21%, DOM 116, up 17%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 37%, med price down 25%, DOM 74, down 15%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 37%, DOM 78, down 5%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales up 13%, med price down 13%, DOM 112, down 15%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 27%, med price down 32%, DOM 123, up 21%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, med price up 4%, DOM 91, up 23%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 10%, med price unchanged, DOM 89, up 14%.

Northwest Dallas:
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 6%, DOM 99, up 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price down 7%, DOM 98, up 4%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 48%, med price up 9%, DOM 72, down 6%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price up 8%, DOM 73, up 4%.

Plano:
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 35%, med price down 3%, DOM 67, down 13%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 32%, med price down 8%, DOM 72, down 9%.

Frisco:
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 1%, med price down 3%, DOM 89, down 10%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price up 1%, DOM 90, down 13%.

Richardson:
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 7%, med price down 5%, DOM 72, up 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 17%, med price down 6%, DOM 77, up 7%.

Southlake:
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 16%, med price up 9%, DOM 101, up 17%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 34%, med price down 7%, DOM 89, up 22%.

Coppell:
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price down 7%, DOM 61, unchanged.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price down 4%, DOM 57, down 14%.

Allen:
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price up 1%, DOM 88, down 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 31%, med price unchanged, DOM 93, down 3%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Mar 09 vs 08: Sales down 1%, med price down 2%, DOM 87, down 9%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, med price down 8%, DOM 93, down 2%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:

$200-299K (14.7% of sales): down 26%, 11 months inventory
$300-399K (5.7% of sales): down 31%, 15 months inventory
$400-499K (2.6% of sales): down 31%, 18 months inventory
$500-599K (1.1% of sales): down 31%, 27 months inventory
$600-699K (0.6% of sales): down 38%, 34 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 42%, 30 months inventory
$800-899K (0.2% of sales): down 13%, 37 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 29%, 41 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.7% of sales): down 45%, 51 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.

$200-299K (15.5% of sales): 101 units vs 193 units year ago, 22 months inventory
$300-399K (5.4% of sales): 35 units vs 69 units year ago, 37 months
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): 20 units vs 23 units year ago, 39 months
$500-599K (0.8% of sales): 5 unit vs 20 units year ago, 103 months
$600-699K (0.3% of sales): 2 units vs 9 units year ago, 124 months
$700-799K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 2 units year ago, n/a months
$800-899K (0.5% of sales): 3 unit vs 6 units year ago, 57 months
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 2 unit vs 3 year ago, 28 months
$1MM + (0.2% of sales): 1 unit vs 7 year ago, 402 months

Bob and Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Associates
214-563-8540
--
Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.dallastexashomefinder.com/
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for February

2009-03-23T17:33:00.004-05:00

Let's start with a little round-up of real estate news...lenders, and in particular Bank of America, are getting more aggressive with jumbo loan financing, offering rates in the mid 5% range for long term fixed financing up to $3M. A hefty downpayment of 20% and the usual documentation is still required, but high jumbo rates (for loans over $417K) have been the culprit over the past year for discouraging buyers in the luxury home market. The Wall Street Journal reported February sales on a national basis were up 5%, surprising most pundits in a report just released today. The Mortgage Bankers Association also reported that loan applications for new mortgages were up over 20% and refi's up even higher. Per Governor Perry's office, a report released in Chief Executive Magazine stated that Texas has been ranked as the top state in the country for job growth and business development for the 4th year in a row, in a survey of over 500 CEO's looking at factors such as taxation, regulation, workforce quality and living environment. Texas is home to more Fortune 500 firms than any other state in the union, and Texas ranked as the top export state for the 7th year in a row, per the US Dept of Commerce. Site Selection Magazine says that Dallas/Fort Worth is the 2nd best market for new and expanded corporate facilities in the country, and in 2008, 156 qualified companies chose DFW as their site for their expansion or relocation. The US Census Bureau just released their figures stating that 146,000 people moved to the DFW area in '07 and '08, the largest growth of any metro area for the 2nd year in a row. DFW is the 4th largest metro area in the country, and while growth has slackened a little lately, DFW is still adding about 400 people per day. Another major study of metropolitan statistical areas shows that housing affordability has never been better since records were first kept in 1981. The national housing cost-to-income ratio has dropped from 30% to 27% and in Dallas to 19%, making Dallas among the most affordable cities for housing in the U.S.

This bigger picture is helpful when drilling down to the month-to-month home sales figures, reinforcing the view that when the country pulls out of the slump, Dallas stands to really benefit. Since no one can pick the bottom, but knowing that the bottom is near (months, not years, away), it takes a little of the pain away. Home sellers today may not realize the best dollar they can get for their homes, but they should expect to pay a little less for the replacement home than would otherwise be the case. Still, there were several submarkets where the median sales price was higher in February than a year ago: Northwest Dallas (+31%), Northeast Dallas (+21%), Plano (+3%), and Richardson (+10%). Far North Dallas actually saw a sales increase of 5% in February vs a year ago. Uptown sales were at least flat vs a year ago, but the median sales price was off 40%, indicating very weak sales of luxury high rise condos there. In fact, only 17 condos priced above $400K have sold in the first two months of the year--in all of Dallas. The demand seems to be okay, but again, the financing has been very difficult. By contrast, there have been 381 sales of condos at prices below $400K.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at 214-563-8540 or at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Median Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 28%, med price down 2%, DOM 89, up 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 27%, med price down 4%, DOM 88, unchanged.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales unchanged, med price down 40%, DOM 84, down 43%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 27%, med price down 27%, DOM 111, down 15%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 50%, med price unchanged, DOM 106, down 5%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 48%, med price up 14%, DOM 124, up 22%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 17%, DOM 78, up 1%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price down 37%, DOM 80, up 3%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 43%, med price down 32%, DOM 126, up 45%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 45%, med price down 31%, DOM 138, up 55%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales up 5%, med price unchanged, DOM 93, up 19%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 5%, med price up 5%, DOM 86, up 5%.

Northwest Dallas:
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 21%, med price up 31%, DOM 111, up 17%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 8%, med price down 4%, DOM 101, up 7%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 26%, med price up 21%, DOM 88, up 35%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, med price up 7%, DOM 76, up 21%.

Plano:
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price up 3%, DOM 68, down 15%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 30%, med price down 5%, DOM 73, down 10%.

Frisco:
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 6%, med price down 1%, DOM 98, down 13%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 15%, med price up 4%, DOM 90, down 17%.

Richardson:
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 30%, med price up 10%, DOM 81, up 3%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price up 3%, DOM 84, up 14%.

Southlake:
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 45%, med price down 14%, DOM 86, up 25%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 46%, med price down 6%, DOM 76, up 16%.

Coppell:
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 4%, DOM 52, down 28%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 17%, med price up 6%, DOM 54, down 23%.

Allen:
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 43%, med price down 8%, DOM 95, up 10%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 38%, med price down 7%, DOM 96, down 1%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Feb 09 vs 08: Sales down 24%, med price down 3%, DOM 108, up 29%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 29%, med price down 4%, DOM 99, up 4%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:

$200-299K (14.5% of sales): down 27%, 12 months inventory
$300-399K (5.8% of sales): down 32%, 16 months inventory
$400-499K (2.6% of sales): down 30%, 20 months inventory
$500-599K (1.1% of sales): down 22%, 29 months inventory
$600-699K (0.5% of sales): down 49%, 39 months inventory
$700-799K (0.5% of sales): down 31%, 31 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): unchanged, 39 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 23%, 38 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.6% of sales): down 51%, 59 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.

$200-299K (15.6% of sales): 62 units vs 113 units year ago, 20 months inventory
$300-399K (6.5% of sales): 26 units vs 41 units year ago, 32 months
$400-499K (2.5% of sales): 10 units vs 12 units year ago, 47 months
$500-599K (0.5% of sales): 2 unit vs 9 units year ago, 163 months
$600-699K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 2 units year ago, n/a months
$700-799K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 2 units year ago, n/a months
$800-899K (0.8% of sales): 3 unit vs 2 units year ago, 39 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 1 unit vs 2 year ago, 36 months
$1MM + (0.2% of sales): 1 unit vs 6 year ago, 272 months

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.dallastexashomefinder.com/
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for January

2009-02-16T11:24:00.006-06:00

January was quite the forgettable month. Normally the slowest month of the year for home sales, it reinforced its reputation in spades this year. Sales slowed to a crawl, as buyers who would normally be writing offers in December for January closings instead hunkered down for the holidays. Uncertainty about the direction of the economy with the new administration was (and is) high on everyones' minds. The nation's psych has been damaged, and Dallasites are not immune from the impact of negative economic news and hits to their balance sheets.

We still know housing conditions (and general business conditions) are a heck of a lot better here than in other cities and states. Our diversified economy in Dallas is functioning but not on all cylinders. We see some retail and restaurant closings, but we see some restaurants packed with waiting lines. We know corporate earnings are down and have heard of layoffs, but we know this happens in every cycle and is temporary. Fortunately, Dallasites are a positive lot, and carry with them good attitudes. Those of us who have been around a while know that economic cycles and Mother Nature are closely intertwined. We will find ways to beat this thing, and sooner than later. The CFO of a Dallas real estate investment company mentioned to me the other day that the "outlook is better than the mood". We hope the current iniatives coming from Washington will have a positive psychological impact while waiting for the economic impact to take hold. And, we know there are other pronouncements from Treasury due shortly to aid the housing and mortgage business on a national scale.

In the meantime, mortgage interest rates are as close to as good as they are going to get, if they're not there already. This seems to be the conventional wisdom, as the government spending programs seem destined to push rates up as soon as the economy turns around. Inflation is not healthy, but real estate tends to benefit in those periods. So, it is a great time for decision-making! And, lenders are making loans--they're just waiting to hear from you.

On a market-by-market basis, there were four areas of town that had increases in the average sales price in January: Park Cities, North Dallas, Richardson and Southlake. Wow, who would have guessed with all the bad news out there! With sales volume so low in January (only 3400 single family homes sold in the greater Dallas area), we need to be a little careful about reading too much into the price increases or price declines, but...it is nice to see.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 27%, avg price down 8%, DOM 86, down 2%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 27%, avg price down 8%, DOM 86, down 2%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 54%, avg price down 17%, DOM 177, up 58%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 54%, avg price down 17%, DOM 177, up 58%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 45%, avg price up 4%, DOM 147, up 65%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 45%, avg price up 4%, DOM 147, up 65%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, avg price down 21%, DOM 76, down 4%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 18%, avg price down 21%, DOM 76, down 4%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 48%, avg price up 4%, DOM 165, up 81%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 48%, avg price up 4%, DOM 165, up 81%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, avg price down 13%, DOM 69, down 20%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 12%, avg price down 13%, DOM 69, down 20%.

Northwest Dallas:
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales up 15%, avg price down 31%, DOM 95, up 2%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales up 15%, avg price down 31%, DOM 95, up 2%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, avg price down 6%, DOM 63, up 3%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, avg price down 6%, DOM 63, up 3%.

Plano:
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 30%, avg price down 8%, DOM 82, unchanged.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 30%, avg price down 8%, DOM 82, unchanged.

Frisco:
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, avg price down 4%, DOM 75, down 26%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 22%, avg price down 4%, DOM 75, down 26%.

Richardson:
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 9%, avg price up 2%, DOM 85, up 25%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 19%, avg price up 2%, DOM 85, up 25%.

Southlake:
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 39%, avg price up 1%, DOM 64, up 7%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 39%, avg price up 1%, DOM 64, up 7%.

Coppell:
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales up 10%, avg price down 3%, DOM 57, down 15%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales up 10%, avg price down 3%, DOM 57, down 15%.

Allen:
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 32%, avg price down 12%, DOM 57, down 15%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 32%, avg price down 12%, DOM 57, down 15%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Jan 09 vs 08: Sales down 36%, avg price down 23%, DOM 89, down 17%.
YTD 09 vs 08: Sales down 36%, avg price down 23%, DOM 89, down 17%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008:
$200-299K (13.6% of sales): down 31%, 14 months inventory
$300-399K (5.5% of sales): down 31%, 18 months inventory
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): down 22%, 20 months inventory
$500-599K (0.9% of sales): down 44%, 35 months inventory
$600-699K (0.3% of sales): down 69%, 67 months inventory
$700-799K (0.4% of sales): down 43%, 37 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): up 22%, 33 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 11%, 34 months inventory
$1MM and up (0.6% of sales): down 51%, 64 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2009 vs 2008.
$200-299K (13.0% of sales): 21 units vs 52 units year ago, 30 months inventory
$300-399K (6.8% of sales): 11 units vs 14 units year ago, 39 months
$400-499K (1.2% of sales): 2 units vs 6 units year ago, 115 months
$500-599K (0.6% of sales): 1 unit vs 5 units year ago, 142 months
$600-699K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 2 units year ago, n/a months
$700-799K (0.0% of sales): 0 units vs 2 units year ago, n/a months
$800-899K (0.6% of sales): 1 unit vs 2 units year ago, 64 months
$900-999K (0.6% of sales): 1 unit vs 1 year ago, 14 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 1 unit vs 3 year ago, 129 months

Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.dallastexashomefinder.com/
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for Year End, 2008

2009-01-21T13:38:00.002-06:00

The year 2008 finished with home sales down 14% and average sales price down 3%. We have seen better years, but this is a far cry from a calamity. To the new readers of this blog, I have addressed the city comparisons in previous postings, and many of us have seen these figures in the papers or on the news in studies prepared by Case-Shiller or PMI. Dallas fared pretty well, better than any other big city market. We sold 80,000 homes and condos in 2008, and we had a 5.7 months inventory at the end of the year. The people that conduct the research tell us that 6 months is equilibrium, so we're reasonably healthy there. Demand is down, but so are listings. Buyers and Sellers are both keeping the market in check, although not intentionally!

The spring market in Dallas always begins late in January, with sales steadily increasing until peaking in June. The interest in home ownership has not dampened, and Open House traffic is once again building, now that the holidays are behind us. But we have problems, namely in the financing arena, and you are too well aware of this. The mega-banks have been burned badly by loose lending practices over the past four years, and they are particularly skittish about making loans at this particular time (mid January). The capital infusions coming from the TARP Act are not turning into new loans, as had been intended. Instead, these billions are camping out on the mega-banks' balance sheets, as a potential rainy day fund for possible new surprises these banks might encounter. Until the psychology improves, lending and lending requirements will be pretty tight. Loans will still be made but with lots of scrutiny.

There are lots of choices when it comes to choosing a lender, and one place to turn is to the smaller, more regional banks. Mortgage loans were not as much a commodity to them, and in most cases, they made fewer bad decisions (loans) and paid perhaps better attention to their underwriting process. While still cautious, many of these regional banks are happy to make loans. Generally, buyers with great credit, savings and a job are able to get mortgages as in the past, just with a little more paperwork. Your favorite mortgage broker can help with this. I have a great group of lenders I can recommend as well.

Now for a little cheer: a look at the market-by-market summary below reveals that 10 of the 14 markets I track actually saw average sales prices INCREASE over 2007, by as much as 8%. Of the other four markets, one (Park Cities) saw no change, and the others were down 2% or less. This is very encouraging, and I hope this trend will carry into the Spring. We all do!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price down 3%, DOM 83, down 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price down 3%, DOM 81, up 9%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 21%, DOM 132, up 21%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 8%, DOM 115, up 16%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 6%, DOM 85, up 6%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price unchanged, DOM 93, up 39%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 10%, avg price down 5%, DOM 90, up 15%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price down 1%, DOM 77, up 20%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 30%, avg price up 17%, DOM 125, up 58%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price up 5%, DOM 102, up 44%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales up 4%, avg price up 23%, DOM 85, up 15%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 26%, avg price up 2%, DOM 75, up 34%.

Northwest Dallas:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 46%, avg price down 2%, DOM 72, down 5%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 32%, avg price up 5%, DOM 76, up 25%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales up 10%, avg price unchanged, DOM 98, up 66%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price up 2%, DOM 61, up 20%.

Plano:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price up 6%, DOM 79, down 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 1%, DOM 68, up 24%.

Frisco:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price down 14%, DOM 81, down 21%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 10%, avg price up 1%, DOM 89, up 16%.

Richardson:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price unchanged, DOM 72, down 11%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price down 2%, DOM 63, up 13%.

Southlake:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales up 16%, avg price down 13%, DOM 100, up 30%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price up 3%, DOM 78, up 10%.

Coppell:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 30%, avg price up 5%, DOM 47, down 18%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price up 7%, DOM 54, up 13%.

Allen:
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 47%, avg price down 6%, DOM 87, down 3%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price up 4%, DOM 82, up 19%.

Rockwall (incl Heath):
Dec 08 vs 07: Sales down 36%, avg price up 9%, DOM 119, up 40%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price up 3%, DOM 91, up 6%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.0% of sales): down 14%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.5% of sales): down 18%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (2.9% of sales): down 17%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 18%, 12 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 17%, 13 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 18%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 27%, 16 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 20%, 16 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 11%, 19 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (17.0% of sales): 733 units vs 850 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.5% of sales): 324 units vs 444 units year ago, 15 months
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): 122 units vs 147 units year ago, 19 months
$500-599K (2.0% of sales): 85 units vs 82 units year ago, 18 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 35 units vs 38 units year ago, 24 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 9 units vs 21 units year ago, 68 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 15 units vs 11 units year ago, 47 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 10 units vs 13 year ago, 19 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 25 units vs 38 year ago, 60 months
---
Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for November

2008-12-20T11:42:00.002-06:00

November sales were down considerably from year ago levels, by a whopping 33% for Dallas overall. Average sales price was down 7% overall. November sales resulted from contracts made in October, when we were all reeling from the shock of evaporating stock portfolio values. The sheer magnitude of the changes in our lives in the last 60 days commanded more of our attention than did the desire to buy or sell a home. National elections, oil prices falling off the cliff, iconic financial institutions and corporations facing bankruptcy, the formal declaration of recession, job uncertainty, and of course the usual pre-holiday stress made for quite a recipe. The normal rhythms of our lives have new volatility, and we're having to adjust.

The silver lining in all these rapid market changes is mortgage interest rates. Yet, for many, this is a big tease. To take advantage of 30-year fixed rates at or below 5% now, buyers face stiffer requirements--like a job, some savings and good credit. This is as it should be, of course, but the reality is different. For those that do meet these requirements, the winter of 2008-2009 might be remembered as the great window of opportunity to snag historically low-cost mortgage money. Refinancing is keeping all the lenders very busy right now. Washington has its aim on interfering with (excuse me, reviving) the housing market by fixing mortgage rates for new purchases at artificially low rates, according to one rumor, which would indeed have a nice, short term stimulative effect.

In this market though, to buy a house, most need to sell a house. If you are able to trade up, selling a house for not as much as you had hoped and buying a more expensive house for less than you expected will yield a greater percentage return when prices resume their upward march. And that will happen. We won't get into it here, but certainly there are inflationary ramifications of printing all the money we are now dishing out to stabilize the economy. And, what is one of the best hedges against inflation? Real estate.

Looking at the different parts of town, while sales are extremely slow, average sales prices are not all that grim. Average sales prices were up modestly in Uptown/Oak Lawn, Far North Dallas, Northwest Dallas and Frisco. The large jumps in average sales price (Park Cities, North Dallas and Lake Highlands) look a bit suspect to me, and they can probably be explained by the sale of a few whopper properties and/or new construction, which skewed the averages upward.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 33%, avg price down 7%, DOM 80, unchanged.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price down 3%, DOM 81, up 10%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 41%, avg price up 3%, DOM 121, up 3%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 10%, DOM 114, up 16%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 40%, avg price up 36%, DOM 114, up 63%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price unchanged, DOM 93, up 39%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 36%, avg price down 13%, DOM 75, up 3%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price down 1%, DOM 76, up 21%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 59%, avg price up 49%, DOM 143, up 64%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 5%, DOM 100, up 43%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 36%, avg price up 7%, DOM 78, up 22%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price unchanged, DOM 75, up 36%.

Northwest Dallas:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price up 5%, DOM 77, up 12%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 6%, DOM 76, up 27%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 49%, avg price up 25%, DOM 71, up 54%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price up 3%, DOM 59, up 18%.

Plano:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 43%, avg price down 27%, DOM 66, down 11%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 1%, DOM 67, up 24%.

Frisco:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 35%, avg price up 4%, DOM 81, down 13%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 10%, avg price up 2%, DOM 89, up 19%.

Richardson:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price up 10%, DOM 51, down 24%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price down 2%, DOM 63, up 15%.

Southlake:
Nov 08 vs 07: Sales down 53%, avg price up 11%, DOM 132, up 136%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price up 3%, DOM 76, up 9%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.0% of sales): down 14%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.5% of sales): down 17%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (2.9% of sales): down 17%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.3% of sales): down 18%, 13 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 16%, 14 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 18%, 14 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): down 24%, 17 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 20%, 18 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 10%, 20 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (17.2% of sales): 700 units vs 789 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.2% of sales): 293 units vs 413 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): 115 units vs 140 units year ago, 20 months
$500-599K (1.9% of sales): 78 units vs 78 units year ago, 19 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 32 units vs 35 units year ago, 27 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 9 units vs 16 units year ago, 60 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 14 units vs 8 units year ago, 44 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 9 units vs 12 year ago, 23 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 23 units vs 29 year ago, 63 months
---
Bob Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for October

2008-11-24T15:39:00.007-06:00

For all the "October Surprises" and the chaos leading up to the election, our October sales and price changes were not too surprising. Unless, of course, you consider a 1% increase in average sales price for the greater Dallas area a surprise. The purveyors of bad economic news are not hanging out in Texas. No cameras here. Yes, our sales are down double digits, which has been the case for months, but our prices are holding up, in most areas, which is really the important statistic. Texas actually reported job gains in October, while much of the rest of the country was facing heavy layoffs. Texas has an $11 billion surplus, while several states are asking for federal bailouts. There is no crystal ball here, and anything can happen, but the state's fundamentals look awfully good.

We'll soon see what November real estate activity looked like, and I promise to get that report out to you sooner than did I write October's results. Keep in mind October sales were the result of contracts written in September, and the Lehman Bros collapse, the first shoe to fall, was on September 15th. The market psychology has been very ugly since then, but it did include the last two weeks of September. Texas, and Dallas in particular, with economies that are out-performing the rest of the nation, stand to attract more relocations of individuals looking for work and companies fleeing high tax states. Yet, the oil and gas industry, which accounted for 83,000 new jobs this year, is "back to normal" with crude prices at $50/barrel. The Barnet Shale gas drilling activity, concentrated in the counties just west of Dallas County, has pumped a lot of money into our local economy but has now slowed considerably. So, we'll see how it goes.

Looking at the submarkets I track in this report (I will add Allen and Rockwall County/Heath in January), average sales prices are up in several areas and in no case down more than 3% in any of these submarkets for the 10 months year to date. Sales are down in all these markets, but only Frisco has a year to date sales drop less than 10%. Sales are down somewhat uniformly in all price categories for single family homes, with the over $1 million dollar properties only off 8% in volume this year. In the condo and townhome category, sales are actually up in one price category--the $500's--(well, by one townhome) compared to last year. There is a large backlog in inventory, at least a one year supply for condos and townhomes at current absorption rates.

Is this a good time to buy real estate? If you are a contrarian, it certainly is. It is an asset that holds value better than most. And, with the rush to Treasuries, driving the 10-year bond to all time highs (and record low yields), mortgage rates are looking great and getting even better. Look for refinance opportunities this winter, but be mindful of windows of opportunity to do this, as stimulus packages can boost stocks (we really do want to see this) which will steal money from the bond market and lead to higher interest rates.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price up 1%, DOM 82, up 8%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price down 2%, DOM 81, up 11%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales up 21%, avg price down 28%, DOM 142, up 42%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 11%, DOM 114, up 18%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 2%, avg price up 13%, DOM 84, up 17%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price down 2%, DOM 92, up 39%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price up 8%, DOM 71, up 13%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price unchanged, DOM 76, up 23%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price down 20%, DOM 98, up 32%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price up 2%, DOM 98, up 42%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price up 23%, DOM 90, up 45%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 27%, avg price unchanged, DOM 73, up 33%.

Northwest Dallas:
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 26%, avg price down 8%, DOM 92, down 53%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 6%, DOM 76, up 29%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 14%, DOM 63, up 26%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price up 2%, DOM 58, up 14%.

Plano:
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price up 5%, DOM 65, up 3%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price unchanged, DOM 68, up 28%.

Frisco:
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 11%, avg price up 1%, DOM 93, up 7%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price up 2%, DOM 90, up 22%.

Richardson:
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales down 34%, avg price up 4%, DOM 64, down 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price down 3%, DOM 64, up 16%.

Southlake:
Oct 08 vs 07: Sales up 12%, avg price down 7%, DOM 89, up 27%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price up 3%, DOM 73, up 1%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:

$200-299K (16.0% of sales): down 13%, 7 months inventory
$300-399K (6.6% of sales): down 14%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (3.0% of sales): down 14%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 16%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 12%, 14 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 16%, 14 months inventory
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): down 22%, 18 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 17%, 19 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 8%, 20 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 v 2007.

$200-299K (17.2% of sales): 661 units vs 719 units year ago, 11 months inventory
$300-399K (7.1% of sales): 273 units vs 379 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.8% of sales): 109 units vs 131 units year ago, 19 months
$500-599K (1.9% of sales): 74 units vs 73 units year ago, 18 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 31 units vs 33 units year ago, 27 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 8 units vs 15 units year ago, 69 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 14 units vs 6 units year ago, 40 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 9 units vs 11 year ago, 22 months
$1MM + (0.6% of sales): 21 units vs 26 year ago, 52 months

---
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for September

2008-10-09T14:37:00.006-05:00

For the first time in what seems like ages, homes sales in September in the greater Dallas were ahead of year ago levels. This 2% increase was a welcome change to the double-digit negative numbers we have seen all year. I am not ready to predict a reversal in the trend, but I have stated previously that our slide began around a year ago (Aug/Sep 07) following the first warning sign for the current financial earthquake, when Countrywide Mortgage was found to be in trouble. So, year-over-year comparisons for the coming months may begin to show positive numbers now. We are still off 12% year to date and will almost surely end the year with fewer sales than in 2007.

As is usually the case, the wealth is not spread evenly among the submarkets. Condo and townhome sales in the Uptown-Oak Lawn-Downtown area are still quite soft, down 14% in September from year ago levels. But, the very good news is the higher sales levels in the Park Cities, East Dallas, North Dallas, Northwest Dallas, Northeast Dallas, Richardson, and Plano for September. Only Far North Dallas, Frisco and Southlake, of the areas I track, were down from year ago sales levels of single family homes. We also have a mix of higher and lower average sales prices, but no one area is down more than 4% for the year to date (Richardson). And, Northwest Dallas is enjoying average sales prices for the first nine months up a lofty 7% versus the first nine months of 2007.

It is now frequently reported in the press that Dallas is among the top 2-3 markets nationwide with resilient home prices, benefiting from the strong, diverse local economy and relocations to our area. The state economy helps, too, and it doesn't hurt that we have a several-billion dollar surplus (slightly dented by Hurricane Ike). With a number of other states reeling from the financial meltdown (almost all with high state income taxes, by the way), we may see more relocations to our area--not just individual families, but companies as well. Still, as Governor Perry stated recently, we in Texas are not isolated by any means from the impact of national credit problems, and a softening world economy could dampen demand for our exports (Texas leads the nation in this category).

Despite the newscasts, the lenders I work with are still lending. Money for home purchases is available. Buyers just have to document they are capable of paying back the loan.

The best description I heard of the current financial meltdown was, "this, too, shall pass...like a kidney stone".

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 2%, avg price unchanged, DOM 79, up 7%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price down 2%, DOM 81, up 11%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price up 50%, DOM 131, up 58%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 16%, DOM 110, up 13%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 36%, avg price down 12%, DOM 88, up 29%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price down 3%, DOM 93, up 41%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 5%, avg price down 3%, DOM 79, up 14%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price unchanged, DOM 76, up 23%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 19%, avg price up 6%, DOM 98, up 36%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price up 5%, DOM 97, up 43%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price down 11%, DOM 54, up 6%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price down 2%, DOM 71, up 31%.

Northwest Dallas:
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 9%, avg price up 19%, DOM 70, down 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 7%, DOM 75, up 27%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 27%, avg price up 19%, DOM 70, up 27%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price up 1%, DOM 58, up 14%.

Plano:
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 9%, avg price up 2%, DOM 65, up 12%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price unchanged, DOM 68, up 31%.

Frisco:
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price up 7%, DOM 91, up 26%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price up 2%, DOM 89, up 24%.

Richardson:
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales up 26%, avg price up 2%, DOM 62, up 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 4%, DOM 64, up 21%.

Southlake:
Sep 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price up 6%, DOM 82, down 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price up 3%, DOM 72, unchanged.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.2% of sales): down 13%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.7% of sales): down 14%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (3.0% of sales): down 14%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 16%, 13 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 13%, 14 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 15%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 24%, 18 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 15%, 18 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 9%, 20 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (17.4% of sales): 613 units vs 712 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (6.9% of sales): 243 units vs 342 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.7% of sales): 95 units vs 120 units year ago, 20 months
$500-599K (1.9% of sales): 67 units vs 66 units year ago, 19 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 27 units vs 29 units year ago, 29 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 8 units vs 14 units year ago, 56 months
$800-899K (0.4% of sales): 13 units vs 5 units year ago, 36 months
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): 8 units vs 11 year ago, 27 months
$1MM + (0.5% of sales): 19 units vs 20 year ago, 46 months

---
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for August

2008-09-23T15:04:00.005-05:00

It is a bit early to know how the recent turmoil on Wall Street may impact the mortgage underwriting process. If anything, buyers with excellent credit (FICO scores above 760) will see little if any change. They may have to verify income and do a little more work gathering documents to forward to their lenders, but mortgage money will still be very available. Credit scores in the low 700's and into the upper 600's may result in an extra eighth to a quarter of point on the interest rate, but with rates bouncing around 6% for 30-year fixed conventional loans, it's difficult to complain! Overall, the trends I have spoken of in these postings over the past year will hold--more scrutiny by the loan officers and underwriters of the buyer's capability to repay the loan at every lending institution. Look for FHA financing to become more common, but only at lower price points. The current ceiling for FHA loans is $271K, but don't be surprised if that ceiling is lifted. The Feds want to be more involved in the lending process (where were they when the laws were written--more on that in a minute), but at the same time, don't want to be painted as the villain in cutting potential buyers out of the market.

Of course, this is where the whole problem began. Congress decided a few years ago to make the American Dream affordable and available to everyone, an entitlement of sorts, rather than a privilege. Community Reinvestment laws meant new (softer) regulations for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Some loan officers and some lenders didn't care if you were qualified or could pay the loan back. Subprime paper was elevated to A-rated paper, packaged and sold to hungry institutional investors. Home prices always go up, right? Today, we're discovering that certain conscientious members of Congress saw the train coming with this lax policy, but they were rebuffed in trying to implement changes. And in testimony on the Hill today (9/23), one influential member of the Senate was blaming this whole problem on the "lowly mortgage", instead of looking inward. The same congressmen who want to hold hearings should themselves be on the other side of the table. So, here we are, getting ready to face more regulation, when the law makers and regulatory bodies already in place failed to do their jobs. The fox wants to guard the hen house.

We are putting up with airport screening because we are afraid to profile, and we will endure a little more bureaucracy in the home buying process because we were afraid to (financially) profile.

Anyway, in August, not all was grim in our world. Dallas sales were down double digits, continuing a several-month's long trend, but average sales prices were hanging in there. For the year to date, Uptown/Oak Lawn's average sales prices were up 12%, East Dallas up 1%, North Dallas up 4%, Northwest Dallas up 5%, Frisco up 2% and Southlake up 3%. Not bad. And, "months inventory" numbers are declining, a good thing, as supply and demand are heading back to equilibrium.

September stats will be out in two weeks, and I will try to get this report out to you a little earlier in the month than I did with this August report.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price down 1%, DOM 77, up 10%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 1%, DOM 81, up 11%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 43%, avg price up 30%, DOM 108, up 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 33%, avg price up 12%, DOM 107, up 9%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 10%, avg price down 9%, DOM 107, up 60%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 2%, DOM 93, up 41%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 26%, avg price up 12%, DOM 70, up 15%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price up 1%, DOM 76, up 25%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 39%, avg price up 11%, DOM 121, up 92%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price up 4%, DOM 98, up 44%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price down 10%, DOM 72, up 47%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price down 1%, DOM 73, up 35%.

Northwest Dallas:
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 44%, avg price down 14%, DOM 69, up 50%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 34%, avg price up 5%, DOM 76, up 31%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price up 1%, DOM 59, up 59%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price down 1%, DOM 57, up 14%.

Plano:
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price up 1%, DOM 64, up 31%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price unchanged, DOM 67, up 31%.

Frisco:
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 23%, avg price up 5%, DOM 80, up 4%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price up 2%, DOM 89, up 22%.

Richardson:
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales down 23%, avg price up 4%, DOM 53, up 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price down 4%, DOM 64, up 21%.

Southlake:
Aug 08 vs 07: Sales up 6%, avg price up 10%, DOM 78, up 37%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price up 3%, DOM 71, up 1%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.5% of sales): down 15%, 6 months inventory
$300-399K (6.9% of sales): down 15%, 8 months inventory
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): down 15%, 10 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 15%, 13 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 15%, 16 months inventory
$700-799K (0.7% of sales): down 14%, 13 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 27%, 19 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 22%, 21 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 12%, 20 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (17.4% of sales): 547 units vs 599 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (6.9% of sales): 216 units vs 313 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.5% of sales): 78 units vs 111 units year ago, 22 months
$500-599K (2.0% of sales): 62 units vs 60 units year ago, 18 months
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): 23 units vs 26 units year ago, 31 months
$700-799K (0.2% of sales): 7 units vs 13 units year ago, 56 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 10 units vs 5 units year ago, 29 months
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 8 units vs 10 year ago, 23 months
$1MM + (0.5% of sales): 16 units vs 18 year ago, 50 months

---
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for July

2008-08-19T16:38:00.006-05:00

July numbers are in, and our pattern continues: sales down but prices stable. We saw close to 7400 homes sell in July, almost identical to June's volume. But, we had a nice 2% increase in overall average sales price, which is definitely reassuring given the problems other cities are facing. Dallas is also beginning to work off some of the inventory, as we had reductions of one month in the "month's inventory" figures in all but the highest price points. These are signs of a market's improving health. Of course, Dallas still receives good scores from various national publications when the housing market is discussed. A recent article touting Dallas in Forbes Magazine can be found at http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/14/housing-buyers-list-forbeslife-cx_md_0714bestbuy.html.

While sales in every price point from $200,000 to $1 million plus are down double digits from a year ago, it's good to see that the percentage change in sales is not down in all the markets surveyed. The Park Cities area, North Dallas and Frisco all reported increased sales activity in July vs year ago. Further, several areas showed higher average sales prices for July vs year ago (supporting the Overall Market figure), including East Dallas, North Dallas, Northwest Dallas, Frisco and Southlake. More good news.

It was August of 2007 when cracks started surfacing in the mortgage industry and were brought to the public's attention. We have endured a year of talk of subprime lending problems, issues with adjustable rate mortgages, home builders' problems, foreclosures and the like. Dallas did a good job of weathering that storm, and it might not be long before our sales comparisons to year ago figures start showing positive trends.

We'll keep an eye on it.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price up 2%, DOM 77, up 8%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 1%, DOM 82, up 12%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price down 8%, DOM 105, up 22%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 32%, avg price up 9%, DOM 107, up 9%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales up 22%, avg price down 1%, DOM 80, up 43%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price unchanged, DOM 91, up 38%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales down 11%, avg price up 4%, DOM 68, up 19%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 1%, DOM 76, up 25%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales up 4%, avg price up 7%, DOM 111, up 73%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price up 4%, DOM 96, up 39%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales down 32%, avg price down 7%, DOM 69, up 50%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price unchanged, DOM 73, up 33%.

Northwest Dallas:
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price up 1%, DOM 72, up 53%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 32%, avg price up 8%, DOM 77, up 28%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price down 4%, DOM 50, down 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price down 1%, DOM 57, up 10%.

Plano:
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price down 1%, DOM 67, up 37%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price unchanged, DOM 68, up 33%.

Frisco:
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales up 6%, avg price up 1%, DOM 83, up 14%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 5%, avg price up 1%, DOM 91, up 26%.

Richardson:
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 6%, DOM 53, up 2%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price down 5%, DOM 65, up 20%.

Southlake:
Jul 08 vs 07: Sales down 3%, avg price up 7%, DOM 63, up 31%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price up 2%, DOM 69, down 5%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.4% of sales): down 14%, 7 months inventory
$300-399K (7.0% of sales): down 13%, 9 months inventory
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): down 14%, 11 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 13%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 18%, 16 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 20%, 15 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 32%, 22 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 17%, 20 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 11%, 21 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007
$200-299K (17.8% of sales): 485 units vs 534 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (7.1% of sales): 193 units vs 257 units year ago, 16 months
$400-499K (2.5% of sales): 68 units vs 97 units year ago, 25 months
$500-599K (1.9% of sales): 52 units vs 53 units year ago, 20 months
$600-699K (0.7% of sales): 20 units vs 24 units year ago, 32 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 7 units vs 9 units year ago, 45 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 8 units vs 4 units year ago, 43 months
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 8 units vs 7 year ago, 27 months
$1MM + (0.4% of sales): 11 units vs 15 year ago, 60 months

---
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Allman-Ac Vol XI, August 2008

2008-08-01T12:47:00.008-05:00

Bottoms Up: This Real Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived

This real estate rout has been more painful than prior ones, but it may be shorter-lived. Indeed, there are early signs of recovery. The U.S. housing market is in a deep funk, probably the worst in 50 years, according to Harvard's respected Joint Center for Housing Studies. Yet, such pessimism appears overdone, based on much recent data. Sales of existing homes are showing tentative signs of increasing, while the plunge in prices likely is nearing an end.

Yes, the supply overhang still is humongous, but at least the numbers are moving in the right direction, as even Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson noted last week. Speaking at a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. conference, Paulson declared that "we are well into the adjustment process." Inventories of new single-family homes are down 21% from a 2006 peak, he observed, while "existing-home sales appear to have flattened over the past several months, indicating that demand may be stabilizing."

Still other numbers suggest prices are close to bottoming. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index for April, released just last month, showed the biggest year-over-year price decline yet, of 15.3%. Buried in the numbers, however, and widely ignored in the media, was the news that home prices actually rose, albeit slightly, between March and April, in eight of the 20 markets covered by the index (Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Portland, Ore., and Seattle). Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Fargo's primary investment unit, expects home prices to steady by year end, with the pace of foreclosures slackening shortly.

Now sales activity seems to be picking up. According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors, sales of single-family homes, condominiums, town houses and co-ops edged up 2% in May fromApril's levels. That might not sound like much of a jump, but May marks only the second month in the past 10 to have seen an increase. NAR economist Lawrence Yun is optimistic home prices will stabilize in the next five months and begin to recover next year, despite today's gloom and overly stringent lending standards. NAR officials typically are cheerleaders, but Yun advances some reasonable arguments to buttress his view. Home sales, he notes, currently are running at a pace of about five million a year, around the same level as a decade ago. Yet, the population has grown by 25 million in the past 10 years, and the U.S. has created 10 million new jobs. Though the rate of new-household formation requires the net addition of 1.6 million housing units a year, housing starts likely will remain below one million into next year, creating pent-up demand in the years ahead.

In hindsight, the housing bust hasn't been nearly as calamitous as depicted in the media, or as Wall Street's woes might suggest. Yes, people have lost their homes, but more than a few were mendacious mortgage applicants and mere speculators, who eagerly sought out 100% margin loans, only to fold just as quickly when prices turned against them.

It is important to remember, as well, that even after a steep drop in the S&P/Case-Shiller Indices, long-term buyers in the top 20 U.S. metro markets have seen their properties appreciate by 70% since 2000. Home prices often take five to 10 years to recover fully from severe declines such as this. But at least the available data suggest the scary dive in home prices soon will be over.

**The complete Barron’s cover story is available from me at Allie Beth Allman & Associates.
Barron’s, July 2008

Dallas #1 for Real Estate Investing

HomeVestors® of America, Inc., the company that advertises, “We Buy Ugly Houses”® on billboards, has named the top 10 markets for real estate investing in the second quarter of 2008. They are as follows:
1. Dallas, Texas
2. Houston, Texas
3. Atlanta, Georgia
4. Denver, Colorado
5. Fort Worth, Texas
6. San Antonio, Texas
7. Charlotte, North Carolina
8. St. Louis, Missouri
9. Milwaukee, Wisconsin
10. Chicago, Illinois; Kansas City, Kansas (two cities tied for tenth place)

HomeVestors, which the company says has bought more than 35,000 homes in the U.S. over the last 12 years, based the findings on the number of houses bought in each market by the franchise network in the second quarter of 2008.
HomeVestors of America, Inc., July 2008

Risk of Price Declines Falls in Most Markets

The risk of price declines continues to intensify in markets where prices shot up the most during the boom, but is falling in most other markets, according to an analysis by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.

PMI said the risk of price declines fell during the first quarter in 326 of the 381 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) tracked, or 86 percent. Of the 55 markets where PMI gauged the risk of price declines had increased, all but five were in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.

PMI's U.S. Market Risk Index is based on home-price data, labor market statistics, housing affordability, household income, past trends in price appreciation, and mortgage rates. The index generates a score estimating the chance that home prices will be lower in two years.

Dallas is one of the lowest risk markets in the nation.
PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., July 2008

Survey Shows Consumers Optimistic on Real Estate

Consumers are apparently optimistic about the future of the national real estate economy, according to a new survey conducted by Housing Predictor. Nearly 1 out of 2 polled say they believe the national real estate economy will improve within the next two years.

Some 25% polled said they believe things would improve in a year or less. Housing Predictor regularly surveys on real estate related issues, in more than 250 local housing markets in all 50 U.S. states.
Housing Predictor, July 2008

Best Places to Live – Money’s List of America’s Best Small Cities

The August issue of Money Magazine reveals its list of the best places in America to live, with emphasis on small cities – three North Texas communities and one south are among the Top 25:

#7: Round Rock, TX
#14: McKinney, TX
#15: Carrollton, TX
#20: Allen, TX

** These are all within the “Central Texas Triangle” which will house the majority of Texas’ population – from just north of DFW to just south of San Antonio and Houston.
Money Magazine, July 2008

Harvard Study: Growth In Households to Drive Recovery

The current housing slump is far from over and is shaping up to be the worst in 50 years, according to an annual report on the state of the nation's housing markets from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The report, "The State of the Nation's Housing 2008," is more optimistic about medium- to long-term prospects, estimating that unless there's a serious, prolonged economic decline or a marked cutback in immigration, the nation will gain 14.4 million new households between 2010 and 2020, compared with 12.6 million between 1995 and 2005.

"At some point demand will bounce back," Center director Nicolas Retsinas said. "Historically, housing markets recover only after the economy has entered a recession and a combination of falling mortgage interest rates and house prices have improved housing affordability. It is difficult to judge how far away from these conditions we may be. It will take longer this time to rebound given the unusually high levels of foreclosures and constrained credit markets."

If the economy slips into a severe recession, the prolonged contraction could drive down the sustainable level of housing demand by slowing the loss of older units, forcing more households to double up, and reducing sales of second homes, the report said. But in the case of a mild downturn, which most economists expect, the fundamentals of demand are likely to drive a strong rebound in housing once prices bottom out and the economy begins to recover. Once the oversupply of housing is worked off and home prices start to recover, the use of automated underwriting
tools, a return to more traditional mortgage products, and the strength of underlying demand should put the number of homeowners back on the rise, the report said.

A weak economy could slow the rate of immigration, which is largely driven by the availability of U.S. jobs. The report identifies the main risk to the long-run outlook as a dip in the level of immigration from its recent 1.2 milliona-
year pace due to weaker labor markets.

Minorities contributed more than 60 percent of household growth in 2000-2006, and they now account for 29 percent of all households, up from 17 percent in 1980 and 25 percent in 2000. The minority share is likely to reach about 35 percent by 2020, the report said.

The report projected that minority household growth among 35- to 64-year-olds should remain strong in 2010-2020, while the number of white middle-aged households will begin to decline after 2010 as baby boomers reach retirement age.

People living alone are expected to account for 36 percent of household growth between 2010 and 2020; 75 percent of the 5.3 million projected increase in single-person households will be among those 65 and older.
Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University, July 2008

Investor Report: Section 1031

Congress has backed off its latest plan to narrow the definition of "like kind" for real estate swaps. That's important because under current tax law, real estate investors have broad flexibility in choosing properties and structuring
exchanges. Given the tight statutory timetables to choose qualified properties for exchanges, that flexibility can be crucial. If you could only swap a rental condo for another rental condo, cornfields for cornfields or commercial buildings for commercial buildings, there'd be a lot fewer exchanges every year -- and probably a lot more IRS audits of taxpayers to make sure the properties swapped met all the "like kind" requirements. Tax reformers tucked away a tiny, technical amendment deep inside the massive federal farm bill pending in Congress, hoping they could sneak it through with nobody looking. But instead, alarm bells went off among real estate lobbyists who get paid to read through thousand-page bills like the farm legislation to make sure there are no unpleasant surprises lurking for real
estate.

The tax reformers had inserted a provision that would have affected only certain agricultural property exchanges by narrowing the window for what constitutes "like kind." But any restriction on "like kind" for real estate would be the proverbial "camel's nose in the tent." It would open the door to still further revenue-driven restrictions that could seriously limit the utility of tax-deferred exchanges for all real estate owners. Real estate investors nationwide benefited from the alert action.
Realty Times, June 2008

Census Data Shows Home Sizes Growing

The Census Bureau reported in its Characteristics of New Housing report for 2007, released this month, that the average new single-family home completed had 2,521 square feet, up 2.1 percent from 2,469 square feet in 2006.

And the average square footage of new homes completed has grown about 46.6 percent since 1977, when the average was 1,720 square feet.

About 26 percent of all new single-family homes completed in 2007 had 3,000 or more square feet of space, the Census Bureau reported, up from 24 percent in 2006 and 11 percent in 1988. And the percentage of new single-family homes completed with 1,200 square feet or less of floor area shrank from 25 percent in 1973 to 4 percent in
2004, holding steady through 2007. Likewise, the percent of homes ranging from 1,200 square feet to 1,599 square feet has shrunk from 31 percent in 1973 to 14 percent in 2006 and 2007.

But in the latest American Institute of Architects Home Design Trends Survey, recently released, respondents were more than twice as likely to report a decline in home sizes than a rise in home sizes (33.5 percent vs. 15.5 percent).

By comparison, the group's 2006 survey found that participants were more than twice as likely to report gains in home sizes than shrinking home sizes.
Inman News, July 2008

Washington Report: No Mortgage Masquerade

Though its details have gotten almost no media coverage, pending legislation would create a vast new nationwide system of licensing and registration -- complete with mandatory fingerprinting for submission to the FBI -- for anyone who fits the definition of a mortgage "originator."

That means anyone who works for a bank and makes retail home loans. It also means the tens of thousands of mortgage brokers and loan officers at mortgage companies. And, in certain situations, it could also cover real estate brokers or agents who are paid by lenders to help originate loans. Politically diverse groups of advocacy organizations sent a protest letter just before the July 4 recess to Senate leaders, demanding that the fingerprinting provisions be dropped. The groups said, "the bill's lack of safeguards for the data collected" are especially troubling, given the
increasing involvement of fingerprints in identity theft -- which "is becoming a major concern among data security professionals."

Proponents of the licensing and registration system argue that the only way regulators can track -- and crack down on -- predatory and fraudulent loan officers as they move from state to state is to maintain a national database with
detailed information on prior offenses, consumer complaints, annual licensing and educational requirements. They also insist that they can maintain the appropriate security measures to make certain that the privacy of loan officers is protected.
Realty Times, July 2008

Real Estate Outlook: Resales Up, Rates Down

In NAR’s latest home resale report: Sales were up by 2 percent nationally in May, and condo sales also jumped 5.5 percent nationwide.

Prices continue to rise in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi. Dozens of metropolitan markets in the mid section of the country never participated in the boom, and they are showing steady increases in prices.

Still another plus: Mortgage rates took a surprise dip last week -- reversing the previous week's sharp increases. Thirty year fixed rate loans are back down to a low 6 percent and fifteen year rates are under six percent again.
Realty Times, July 2008

First-Time Home Buyers: NAR Survey

Over the past 12 years, first-time home buyers were responsible for buying 42% of all the homes purchased in the U.S. In 2006, that number dipped to 36% but in 2007 it again increased to 39%. Overall, 12% of first time buyers were not born in the United States, versus 8% of repeat buyers, and 70% bought a home because they wanted to own real estate and establish a household.

• First-Time Home Buyers Made 39% of All Home Purchases.

• 75% rented an apartment or home prior to purchasing

• The Marital Status of First Time Home Buyers Is:
51% Married Couples
11% Unmarried Couples
25% Single Female
11% Single Male

• Median Age of First-Time Home Buyers Is:
52% were age 24-35 years old
21% where age 35-44 years old

• The Average Income for First Time Home Buyers
$68K married
$68K unmarried couple
$44K single female
$52K single male

• Expected Length of Time to Buy Another Home
28% plan to move within 5 years

• Information Sources for First Time Home Buyers
87% used the Internet to gather information
49% used newspaper ads
44% open houses
56% did a virtual tour online

• How First-Time Buyers Found Agents to Work With.
54% relied on family, friends to help them find a real estate agent
NAR, July 2008

Texas Land Stays Hot

In 2007, at 20 percent, the growth in Texas land sales prices nearly matched the stratospheric 23 percent posted in 2006. At $2,190 per acre, the 2007 statewide price topped $2,000 per acre for the first time. Despite the slight dip in price growth in 2006, the 2007 increase eclipses the 16 percent growth in both the 2003 and 2004 markets. Texas land prices in 2007 were 224 percent of what they were in 2002. That represents a compound growth rate of more than 17 percent annually.

The 2007 market saw a pronounced shift away from larger properties. Size of tract per transaction dropped precipitously to 80 acres compared with 98 acres in 2006. Markets have hovered in the 100-acre range for the past five years.

Small property prices registered a $4,000-per-acre median in 2007 compared with $1,800 per acre for he large properties. Prices for small properties rose 15 percent in 2007 while typical property prices increased 13 percent.

Future Trends:

First, land prices probably cannot indefinitely sustain the rate of increase seen in the past five years. However, trends continue to reflect an upwards price spiral.

Second, a substantial drop in prices would more likely follow a severe economic dislocation, a prolonged, deep recession. It seems increasingly likely that some kind of direct governmental intervention in financial markets will eventually occur. That kind of solution may help avoid or at least limit the financial damage the economy faces without it.

Third, without a severe economic blow, land prices will likely continue to rise but at a more sustainable rate. Based on early 2008, continued growth at a lower level seems the most likely short-term prospect. Over the longer term, prices will probably moderate to growth rates more typically seen over the past 40 years.
Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, July 2008

Outlook: Strong

Two major events have to occur before the housing market will begin to bottom out. First home prices have to stop falling, and second, investor confidence in the traditional U.S. residential mortgage must be restored. The pace of this turnaround will vary from city to city. If home builders cut back dramatically on new supply, the recovery will occur faster. Communities with fewer foreclosures will work through the excess supply more quickly. Communities with strong job and population growth will create demand that will absorb the excess units faster.

Political action could change the timeline as well. If the Federal government were to offer tax credits for people to buy homes, the excess inventory could be soaked up even faster. This would cause the housing market to bottom and turn around much faster.

Another stimulus that would speed the recovery is gently rising mortgage rates. Typically, when mortgage rates are falling, homebuyers postpone buying. But when they see that mortgage rates have stopped declining and may rise, they hop off the fence and buy. As the economy begins to rebound in 2009, look for mortgage rates to take an upward turn. As long as rates do not increase dramatically enough to impact affordability, this should stimulate housing demand.

The long-term outlook for the Texas housing market is clearly strong. In the 1970s and 1990s, house prices in Texas rose in nine out of ten years. And even in the 1980s – the most challenging decade for Texas in the past 38 years – house prices increased eight out of ten years.

Job growth in Texas has doubled the national average for most of the past ten years. Demographic experts estimate another 13 million people will live in Texas by 2030. Many Texas cities still have tight inventories of homes for sale with prices continuing to appreciate.

The state’s metropolitan areas have strengths and weaknesses in their local markets. Attractive properties located in older neighborhoods close to downtown are still performing well and will continue to do so. The challenges in big city housing markets will be in select sections of the suburban perimeter. If you plan to buy a house to live in for a number of years, this would be a great time to buy.
Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, July 2008

Bob Edmonson
www.BobEdmonson.com
www.AllieBethAllman.com
Consumers’ Choice Award 2008

2008 SALES & LISTING REPORT (To Date)
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Highest Number of Listings • Highest Dollar Volume of Sales
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Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for June

2008-07-17T16:53:00.004-05:00

For the first half of 2008, sales were down 15% from the first half last year, city-wide. In the markets I track in this report, sales were down anywhere from 9% in Frisco to 35% in Northwest Dallas and in the Uptown-Oak Lawn area. We saw 7363 homes sell in June, on par with sales volume in 2003. Prices are doing well enough, when compared to other cities, down 2% overall but with several instances of positive gains: Uptown up 13% vs year ago, Park Cities area up 1%, North Dallas up 3%, Far North Dallas up 2%, Northwest Dallas up 9% and Frisco up 2%. It's nice to say, "up", for a change, given the constant hammering we hear and see in the news. Have you noticed that a lot of the front page articles regarding housing in the local paper are from "wire services"? Real Estate is local, just as is the weather. Keep that in mind when you are tuned into network newscasts or your favorite source of news.

PMI, a mortgage insurance company, conducts periodic research on housing prices around the country, and in their last report, in June I believe, they put Dallas on top of the list of most stable home markets in the country. Our market is not bad, it's just slow. IndyMac, the bank that recently failed in California, was a big player in the subprime loan business in that state. While I haven't seen the breakdown, I would bet that 80% of the problems with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac you have heard about stem from bad loan practices in the four states of CA, AZ, NV, and FL. Still, we are not isolated from national problems, of course, so if interest rates on conforming 30-year mortgages climb as a result of problems elsewhere, our buyers here in Dallas will pay those same higher mortgage rates. Thusfar, this is not a problem, and hopefully, it won't be.

Where we have been stung a little bit is in the jumbo loan market, over $417,000. Those loans are carrying higher than historical interest rates, because those loans are more difficult to sell in the secondary markets. This directly impacts the higher priced homes, which is why we see longer marketing times for these properties. A good rule of thumb for a healthy Dallas market is said to be 6 months of inventory. This exists at every price point under $170,000, but as you can see below, it begins to climb from 8 months inventory for homes in the $200's to 23 months inventory for homes in the $800's. This doesn't mean it will take you 23 months to sell an $850,000 home, it just speaks to supply. If your home is just what that buyer is looking for, your "days on market" can be even just a few days.

Dallas continues to be an attractive market for business and relocations, as reinforced by the recent announcement from AT&T. We almost landed the MillerCoors headquarters, and there may be others in the wings. We are happy to be in Dallas, with reason to remain positive heading into the second half of the year.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price down 1%, DOM 77, up 13%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 2%, DOM 83, up 13%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price up 3%, DOM 95, up 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 35%, avg price up 13%, DOM 108, up 8%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price up 1%, DOM 83, up 20%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price up 1%, DOM 92, up 37%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price down 4%, DOM 63, up 15%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 2%, DOM 77, up 24%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 19%, avg price down 15%, DOM 72, up 7%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 30%, avg price up 3%, DOM 91, up 30%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price up 6%, DOM 63, up 26%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 28%, avg price up 2%, DOM 72, up 26%.

Northwest Dallas:
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price up 2%, DOM 50, up 4%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 35%, avg price up 9%, DOM 77, up 24%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 7%, DOM 47, up 9%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price unchanged, DOM 58, up 9%.

Plano:
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 23%, avg price down 3%, DOM 58, up 26%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price unchanged, DOM 68, up 31%.

Frisco:
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 5%, DOM 80, up 16%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price up 2%, DOM 93, up 31%.

Richardson:
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 37%, avg price down 4%, DOM 66, up 32%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price down 5%, DOM 67, up 24%.

Southlake:
Jun 08 vs 07: Sales down 1%, avg price down 7%, DOM 63, up 31%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 24%, avg price unchanged, DOM 65, down 10%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (16.3% of sales): down 14%, 8 months inventory
$300-399K (6.9% of sales): down 12%, 9 months inventory
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): down 15%, 11 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 12%, 14 months inventory
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): down 18%, 16 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 23%, 17 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 30%, 23 months inventory
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): down 14%, 20 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 17%, 22 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (17.8% of sales): 405 units vs 439 units year ago, 11 months inventory
$300-399K (6.8% of sales): 155 units vs 215 units year ago, 17 months
$400-499K (2.5% of sales): 57 units vs 84 units year ago, 26 months
$500-599K (2.0% of sales): 46 units vs 44 units year ago, 20 months
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): 18 units vs 22 units year ago, 34 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 7 units vs 8 units year ago, 36 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 8 units vs 3 units year ago, 40 months
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 7 units vs 5 year ago, 25 months
$1MM + (0.4% of sales): 10 units vs 12 year ago, 59 months

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Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
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Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for May

2008-06-10T12:00:00.005-05:00

For all of us looking for some "new" news in May, well, there really isn't much. May sales in Dallas were down 12% from year ago, extending the sales pattern of April and months before. For the year, sales are off 14%. Single Family homes sales numbered 7750 in May, and condos and townhomes sales numbered 439. Sometimes, with the continued negative sales results, it is easy to forget that homes are still selling and buyers are still buying. It is just happening at a slower pace. That's okay.

Average sales prices are up a few percentage points in some areas and down a few points in other areas. For the greater Dallas area, average sales prices were down 1% in May and year to date. For several months, going back to last year, the pattern in prices has been fairly flat for the area. Looking at trends, prices in the Uptown, Northwest Dallas and Frisco markets have been generally on an upward path. No market appears to be on a downhill run. One might think that with long term softness in sales, prices would be dragged downward, but that doesn't seem to be happening. Homes that are selling the fastest are homes which are in great condition, look great inside and out, and are well located. Those homes stand out in a field of 44,910 homes for sale across the area, homes buyers prefer and for which buyers are willing to pay a good price.

Then there is Frisco. What's going on there? Sales were up 2% in May, when all the other submarkets were down double digits. Average sales price was up 8% and is up a healthy 4% for the year. Clearly, Frisco has a lot of attractions, particularly for families. Frisco is the good news story for May. Maybe we can spread that magic to more market areas in June.

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price down 1%, DOM 79, up 14%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price down 1%, DOM 84, up 12%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 26%, avg price up 6%, DOM 104, up 17%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 37%, avg price up 15%, DOM 111, up 9%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price down 14%, DOM 105, up 42%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price up 1%, DOM 95, up 42%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price down 2%, DOM 83, up 57%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price down 1%, DOM 108, up 86%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price down 1%, DOM 108, up 86%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 7%, DOM 97, up 39%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 23%, avg price down 6%, DOM 63, up 26%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 1%, DOM 74, up 32%.

Northwest Dallas:
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 32%, avg price up 33%, DOM 82, up 46%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 39%, avg price up 11%, DOM 86, up 32%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 14%, avg price unchanged, DOM 46, down 8%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price up 2%, DOM 60, up 9%.

Plano:
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 17%, avg price down 4%, DOM 58, up 23%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price up 2%, DOM 70, up 30%.

Frisco:
May 08 vs 07: Sales up 2%, avg price up 8%, DOM 92, up 51%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 7%, avg price up 4%, DOM 97, up 35%.

Richardson:
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 4%, DOM 67, up 56%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 5%, DOM 68, up 24%.

Southlake:
May 08 vs 07: Sales down 33%, avg price down 2%, DOM 57, up 19%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 31%, avg price up 2%, DOM 67, down 15%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (15.8% of sales): down 13%, 8 months inventory
$300-399K (6.7% of sales): down 11%, 10 months inventory
$400-499K (3.0% of sales): down 10%, 12 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): down 3%, 15 months inventory
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): down 19%, 18 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 22%, 17 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 30%, 24 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 18%, 21 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.1% of sales): down 14%, 24 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007. $200-299K (18.2% of sales): 341 units vs 372 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (6.5% of sales): 121 units vs 159 units year ago, 18 months
$400-499K (2.4% of sales): 45 units vs 74 units year ago, 27 months
$500-599K (2.0% of sales): 38 units vs 35 units year ago, 20 months
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): 16 units vs 18 units year ago, 30 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 6 units vs 7 units year ago, 36 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 6 units vs 3 units year ago, 43 months
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 6 units vs 5 year ago, 22 months
$1MM + (0.5% of sales): 9 units vs 9 year ago, 59 months

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Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for April

2008-05-18T21:18:00.005-05:00

Home sales in the Dallas area were off 11% in April, down 15% year to date. Prices were a different matter. As in March, average sales prices in the area of the Metroplex from Downtown to Frisco were generally up, this month up everywhere but in North Dallas, the Lake Highlands area and Richardson. Year to date, average sales price is up in many of the submarkets I track, reinforcing what we already know: there is no downward trend in prices here. Of course, sales are still sluggish across the board. However, Richardson actually bucked this trend with a plus 4% in sales volume vs April of 2007.

Sales of single family homes priced in the $500's are actually higher than in 2007, the only price category above $200,000 to be in positive territory across the entire Dallas metro area. Townhome and condos priced in the $500's are ahead of last year sales as well. Interesting! Perhaps it has something to do with the conventional loan limit, now at $417,000. With 20% down, a buyer can reach $521,000 without getting a second lien or moving into jumbo financing. Jumbo loans, over $417,000, have been more difficult to get and carry higher interest rates, a by-product of the tightening lending requirements. And, sales in the $600's-$800's are off substantially from year ago levels.

Loan applications nationally are heading upward for a change. For the week ending May 2, applications were 15.6% ahead of the prior week. This is still 4.4% lower than a year ago, but considering that adjustable rate mortgages and other non-prime products are out and conforming loans are in, it is an achievement. Also on the national front, The Wall Street Journal, in an article published the first week of May, stated that "It is very likely that April, 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. (This) just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is a critical factor". We in Texas, and more specifically Dallas, have been somewhat insulated from the ravages of the housing market in other parts of the country. But, Fed policy, when it reacts to these national economic conditions, does affect us locally. So, good news nationally will certainly be good news for us. We will soon know if these predictions are accurate!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office or on my cell at 214-563-8540. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 11%, avg price down 1%, DOM 80, up 14%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 1%, DOM 86, up 12%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 37%, avg price up 1%, DOM 97, up 10%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 41%, avg price up 20%, DOM 113, up 6%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price up 18%, DOM 78, up 28%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 21%, avg price up 8%, DOM 90, up 41%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 22%, avg price up 1%, DOM 76, up 36%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price unchanged, DOM 80, up 19%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price down 8%, DOM 71, up 20%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 35%, avg price up 10%, DOM 91, up 23%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 35%, avg price up 10%, DOM 77, up 83%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 30%, avg price up 3%, DOM 78, up 34%.

Northwest Dallas:
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 38%, avg price up 14%, DOM 63, up 17%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 40%, avg price down 2%, DOM 95, up 28%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 5%, DOM 81, up 47%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 40%, avg price up 2%, DOM 84, up 24%.

Plano:
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 12%, avg price up 18%, DOM 61, up 27%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 11%, avg price up 4%, DOM 73, up 30%.

Frisco:
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price up 2%, DOM 84, up 22%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price up 3%, DOM 98, up 29%.

Richardson:
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales up 4%, avg price down 4%, DOM 61, up 24%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 5%, DOM 68, up 15%.

Southlake:
Apr 08 vs 07: Sales down 45%, avg price up 1%, DOM 71, down 4%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 29%, avg price up 5%, DOM 71, down 24%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (15.5% of sales): down 15%, 8 months inventory
$300-399K (6.5% of sales): down 12%, 11 months inventory
$400-499K (3.1% of sales): down 7%, 12 months inventory
$500-599K (1.4% of sales): up 1%, 16 months inventory
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): down 29%, 22 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 22%, 19 months inventory
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): down 28%, 26 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 18%, 23 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.0% of sales): down 20%, 26 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (18.0% of sales): 256 units vs 276 units year ago, 10 months inventory
$300-399K (6.8% of sales): 96 units vs 135 units year ago, 20 months
$400-499K (2.2% of sales): 32 units vs 53 units year ago, 27 months
$500-599K (2.2% of sales): 31 units vs 23 units year ago, 21 months
$600-699K (0.9% of sales): 13 units vs 14 units year ago, 28 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 4 units vs 7 units year ago, 49 months
$800-899K (0.3% of sales): 4 units vs 2 units year ago, 51 months
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 4 units vs 4 year ago, 27 months
$1MM + (0.5% of sales): 7 units vs 7 year ago, 58 months

---
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Dallas Home Sales Stats for March

2008-04-22T21:06:00.003-05:00

Bright spots for sales and average sales prices were few in March, as the first quarter came to an end with a thud. On the positive news side, average sales prices were UP in Plano, Frisco, Richardson and Southlake. The best performing product and price category was $500,000 condos, which showed a strong sales gain in March, and a check in the plus column for the year to date sales figures. Okay, that's all the good news. Sales were down in all submarkets tallied and in all single family price points above $50,000 (yes, $50K). Time on the market increased in all markets but Uptown and Southlake, confirming what we already know: For Sale signs are not coming down as quickly as sellers would like. Still, we sold 6,223 homes in March, off 18% from the first quarter of 2007. So, buyers are still out there in force, just dealing with more choices than usual.

The large inventory creates two situations for buyers. First, they must take more time sifting through the possibilities when searching the Internet and when making appointments to see homes, and they know there is no particular urgency in selecting a property given the liklihood of several meeting their requirements. This slows things down and reduces sales volume. It is more difficult for buyers to make decisions, and it is certainly frustrating for sellers ready to move.

Good news on the mortgage front is in the form of interest rates, particularly for the 30-year conventional loan and adjustable rate mortgages. This is a great time for contrarians to be in the market. The news reports are (almost) all bad, but the opportunities are terrific. We will look back on 2008 and recall this window of opportunity to pick up good values at low rates. As in the late 1980's and early 1990's, a much, much more difficult time for real estate, many took advantage of the down market and purchased residential and commercial property, realizing sharp gains only a few years later. The only buyers during that time were ones with lots of cash, and today, the only buyers are those with great credit and a good job history. Fortunately, there are still lots of qualified buyers in our market, and they are not having to settle for anything less than the exact house they want to buy. Sellers need to price their homes to sell and make sure they are in top showing condition. It is competitive out there!

Here are the details for single family homes and condo/townhome sales in selected areas. For a more comprehensive look at any one market, give me a call at my Allie Beth Allman office. Scroll down for the "Sales by Price Category" info. DOM is short for Days on Market. Avg Price pertains to sales occurring in the period(s).

Overall Market (North Texas):
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price up 2%, DOM 87, up 13%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 18%, avg price down 1%, DOM 88, up 10%.

Uptown, Downtown and Turtle Creek (Condos and Townhomes):
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 46%, avg price down 1%, DOM 103, down 16%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 41%, avg price up 30%, DOM 120, up 4%.

Highland Park and University Park, Bluffview, Devonshire and Greenway Parks:
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 38%, avg price up 24%, DOM 90, up 58%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 25%, avg price up 5%, DOM 97, up 47%.

East Dallas (incl M's and Lakewood):
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 8%, avg price up 6%, DOM 85, up 21%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 11%, avg price up 1%, DOM 81, up 11%.

North Dallas (South of LBJ):
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 56%, avg price up 33%, DOM 132, up 61%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 40%, avg price up 20%, DOM 102, up 28%.

Far North Dallas (incl Addison and to Park Blvd in Plano):
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 27%, avg price up 3%, DOM 76, up 7%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 26%, avg price up 2%, DOM 79, up 20%.

Northwest Dallas:
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 43%, avg price down 7%, DOM 95, up 27%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 40%, avg price down 2%, DOM 95, up 28%.

Northeast Dallas (incl Lake Highlands):
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 16%, avg price down 5%, DOM 81, up 47%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 15%, avg price down 3%, DOM 73, up 24%.

Plano:
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 9%, avg price up 1%, DOM 71, up 34%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 11%, avg price down 1%, DOM 76, up 27%.

Frisco:
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 20%, avg price up 5%, DOM 90, up 25%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 13%, avg price up 3%, DOM 100, up 27%.

Richardson:
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 22%, avg price up 1%, DOM 71, up 27%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 23%, avg price down 5%, DOM 73, up 14%.

Southlake:
Mar 08 vs 07: Sales down 22%, avg price up 7%, DOM 84, down 22%.
YTD 08 vs 07: Sales down 22%, avg price up 8%, DOM 72, down 29%.

Here is a look at Single Family home sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007:
$200-299K (15.2% of sales): down 16%, 9 months inventory
$300-399K (6.4% of sales): down 15%, 11 months inventory
$400-499K (2.9% of sales): down 12%, 14 months inventory
$500-599K (1.2% of sales): down 8%, 19 months inventory
$600-699K (0.8% of sales): down 28%, 21 months inventory
$700-799K (0.6% of sales): down 20%, 19 months inventory
$800-899K (0.2% of sales): down 38%, 33 months inventory
$900-999K (0.2% of sales): down 20%, 23 months inventory
$1MM and up (1.0% of sales): down 19%, 27 months inventory

Here is a look at Condos and Townhomes sales by price category for YTD 2008 vs 2007.
$200-299K (16.3% of sales): 171 units vs 189 units year ago, 12 months inventory
$300-399K (6.9% of sales): 67 units vs 96 units year ago, 20 months
$400-499K (2.2% of sales): 21 units vs 40 units year ago, 32 months
$500-599K (2.1% of sales): 20 units vs 13 units year ago, 27 months
$600-699K (0.6% of sales): 6 units vs 9 units year ago, 50 months
$700-799K (0.3% of sales): 3 units vs 5 units year ago, 55 months
$800-899K (0.2% of sales): 2 units vs 2 units year ago, 70 months
$900-999K (0.3% of sales): 3 units vs 3 year ago, 29 months
$1MM + (0.7% of sales): 7 units vs 5 year ago, 39 months

Oh, by the way, I am never too busy for any of your referrals!

---
Bob & Knoxie Edmonson
Allie Beth Allman & Assoc.
(214)563-8540
http://www.DallasTexasHomefinder.com
---
Dallas TX Homes for Sale, Condos and Real Estate
Highland Park Real Estate, University Park Real Estate,
Uptown Dallas Real Estate, M-Streets Real Estate

Allman-Ac Vol. IX, April 2008

2008-04-08T14:59:00.006-05:00

April 2008

Dallas Housing: Bright Spot
Dallas is getting more good marks for its home market while the national housing sector is still losing ground. A new report shows that the Dallas area has basically flat home prices and one of the shortest times to sell a house in the country.

Altos Research and Real IQ Market Analysis released the information in their latest housing market update. Dallas had the second-fastest home selling time among the 22 markets the researchers surveyed – 79 days. Only Denver had a shorter average home sales time. Nationally, it takes more than 120 days to sell a house.

In the last three months, overall listing prices fell 1.6 percent in the national survey. But in the Dallas area, list prices rose 0.7 percent. Dallas was one of only six markets in Altos’ comparison that had flat or higher home list prices. Asking prices were down in 6 markets. Dallas Morning News March 2008

DFW Ranked first for total job gains in ‘07
Preliminary 2007 data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows Dallas/Fort Worth ranked first among all US metros for total job gains last year. DFW added 81,900 jobs last year bringing the region’s total employment count just under 3 million at 2,942,700. Texas’ second largest metro, Houston, ranked third in job gains adding some 74,000. The greater New York region, with a total job count exceeding 8.5 million, wedged between the two Texas metros for second position at 78,800 jobs added.

Texas metros also stand out in job gains as measured by percent or rates of change last year. Among the largest 50 metros, all with at least 500,000 jobs, Austin’s growth rate of 4 percent was bested only by Salt Lake City at 4.5 percent. Houston and Dallas ranked fifth and sixth and were the only very large metros (over 2 million job base) to make the top ten in growth rates.

Texas added 230,000 jobs compared to 186,000 for California, 119,000 in Florida and 86,000 in New York. If DFW were a state, it would have beaten North Carolina for fifth position in total jobs added last year. Dallas Chamber of Commerce, March 2008

Dallas: The Place To Be
2006 Year-End Ranking (’07 not yet available)

Top Gross Domestic Product by US Metro Area:
#5 - Dallas/Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Global Insight, January 2006

Best State for Business:
#1 - Texas
Chief Executive Magazine, January 2006

Top Metros for Business Expansion & Relocation:
#2 - Dallas/Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Site Selection Magazine, March 2006

Fast Facts:

If DFW were a nation, it would rank 28th in the world in Gross Domestic Product, between Indonesia and Norway.
United States Conference of Mayors & Global Insight

Twenty-two Fortune 500 headquarters called DFW home in 2006.
Fortune Magazine

DFW ranked 22 out of 50 large cities as the best places for entrepreneurs in the Southwest in 2005.
Entrepreneur Magazine

Least Expensive Cities: U.S. Metros with Populations Exceeding 1.5 Million:
#8 - Dallas/Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Competitive Alternatives Study – KPMG, March 2006

Fortune 500 Headquarters Ranked by Metro Area:
#5 - Dallas/Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Fortune Magazine, April 2006 & Greater Dallas Chamber

Metros Ranked by Total Employment Growth:
#2 - Dallas/Fort Worth
Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2006

Hot Cities for Future Job Growth (Based on growth rates through 2015)
#8 - Dallas/Fort Worth
Business 2.0 Magazine, May 2006

Top Cargo Airports in North America
#1 - Dallas/Fort Worth, DFW
Air Cargo World Magazine, March 2006

Top 10 DFW Trading Partners
China
South Korea
Japan
Singapore
Malaysia
Taiwan
Germany
Philippines
United Kingdom
Thailand
USA Trade Online, 2005

10 Blooming US Cities for Tech
#5 - Dallas
EWEEK Magazine, June 2006

Greatest Value of Venture Capital Investments by State
#3 - Texas
Cyberstates 2006

Highest Number of High-Tech Establishments by State
#2 - Texas
Cyberstates 2006

Fast Facts
• In a state-by-state analysis, Texas ranks 2nd in total number of high-tech workers
• Twenty-six percent of Texas’s international exports are high-tech
Cyberstates 2006

Greatest Value of High-Tech Exports by State
#2 - Texas
Cyberstates 2006

Greatest Value of Research & Development Expenditures by State
#4 - Texas
Cyberstates 2006

Outlook: Dallas/Fort Worth
As with the U.S. economy, DFW will continue to grow though at a less heady pace.
Limited corrections in local housing markets will continue to help DFW outperform the national economy. Local job growth will equal or top population gains, holding unemployment rates steady above the national rate. Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, which accounts for 1/5 of the DFW’s Gross Product, will also outpace other
sectors.
Greater Dallas Chamber, December 2006

What Works and What Doesn’t in Economic Policy
The Recent Democrat Primary in Texas and Ohio offered a glimpse not just of what’s going on in politics, but what works in economic policy. And, incidentally, why the Texas Housing market is solid.

Texas has gained 36,000 manufacturing jobs since 2004 and has ranked as the nation’s top exporting state for six years in a row. Its $168 billion of exports in 2007 translate into tens of thousands of jobs. Ohio, Indiana and Michigan are losing auto jobs, but many of these “runaway plants” are not fleeing to China, Mexico or India. They’ve moved to more business-friendly U.S. states, including Texas. GM recently announced plans for a new plant to build hybrid cars. Guess where? Near Dallas. Texas is a right to work state and has been adding jobs by the tens of thousands. Nearly 1,000 new plants have been built in Texas since 2005, from the likes of Microsoft, Samsung and Fujitsu. Foreign-owned companies supplied the state with 345,000 jobs.
Wall St. Journal, March 2008

Affordable Homes: Texas
Four Texas cities rank in the nation’s 25 markets for most affordable homes. For Dallas-FortWorth, the estimate total housing payment averaged 34% of household income, far below the 60% for New York and 75% for Los Angeles.

Affordability Ranking Market
2 San Antonio
8 Houston
15 Dallas-Fort Worth
22 Austin
Biz Journals, March 2008

Investor Report: “Risk List”
A new national “risk list” could help guide real estate investors – not only those looking to scoop up distressed property through short sales or pre-foreclosure deals with lenders – but those looking for the safest places to stash their real estate dollars. PMI Group’s quarterly risk list rates the relative riskiness of owning or buying property in dozens of major markets around the country. PMI, which is one of the largest private mortgage insurance companies, uses the ratings in its own risk underwriting on home loans.

The safest markets in the country right now – where there is less than a one percent chance of price declines in the coming 24 months, according to PMI’s risk index?Well, the Lone Star state has more of them than any other: Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, Houston and San Antonio are all rated in the top ten for “safe bets.”
Realty Times, January 2008

Q4 Home Prices Fall in 76% of U.S. ZIP Codes: Texas Up
Home prices fell during the fourth quarter in 76 percent of the 7,472 ZIP codes tracked by mortgage data aggregator First American CoreLogic. While just over half of ZIP codes nationwide saw prices decline for the year, trends varied widely by state.

During the fourth quarter, prices declined in 30 of the top 34 markets tracked by the index, and all but 10 of those markets saw year-over-year price declines, the index showed. The report relies on more than 45 million observations in First American CoreLogic’s property information database.

4 Markets in Texas Showed Increases in Value
Austin-Round Rock, Texas 8.09%
San Antonio, Texas 6.82%
Houston-Sugar Land Baytown, Texas 6.82%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 3.21%
First American CoreLogic, February 2008

Housing: Best time to buy in four years
It may be the best time to buy a house in more than four years. The Cleveland-based bank National City Corp. (NCC, Fortune 500), together with financial analysis firm Global Insight, revealed Tuesday that more than 88% of the 330 housing markets surveyed showed price declines and improved affordability during the last three months of 2007.

“Housing valuations are almost back to long-term norms,” said National City’s chief economist, Richard DeKaser. He called current affordability “the best in the past four years. By the end of 2008, housing markets could be broadly under valued.”
Price declines have continued into 2008 and interest rates, although they have inched up lately, have been steady or lower compared to late last year. There have even been wage gains; personal income rose 0.5% in December. Soaring foreclosure rates have added inventory to many housing markets, depressing home prices further. All the best bargains were found in Louisiana and Texas. Dallas was the most undervalued big city by 30%.
CNNMoney.com, March 2008

Move Where? Texas!
Forbes.com has ranked the best cities for employment in 2008, and a whopping 5 out of the top 20 were in Texas. The top ten were ranked according to median income, unemployment, income growth, cost of living and job growth:
3. Austin, Texas
5. Forth Worth, Texas
7. Houston, Texas

Now, if renters want cheap rents, where are the best places to live? Forbes does the math for its top 10, using vacany rates, new-construction projects and job growth.
4. San Antonio, Texas
8. Houston, Texas
9. Dallas, Texas
Forbes.com, February 2008

Washington Report: HUD Proposes Changes to Mortgage Process
Federal department of Housing and Urban Development plans to unveil sweeping proposed changes to the American mortgage application process and real estate settlement system. The rule changes are the end-product of HUD’s five-year effort to streamline mortgage disclosures, promote comparison shopping by loan applicants, and to stamp out eleventh-hour surprises at closings. Among the key changes in the 250-page HUD proposal:

Good Faith Estimate
Transformation of the GFE into a consumer education and shopping tool. The GFE will now explain in detail to an applicant how a particular loan works, how high monthly payments could rise, disclose any potential fees such as prepayment penalties, and provide information about escrow items. New, strict limits on how much settlement charges can depart from the Good Faith Estimates stage – within three days of the loan application – to the HUD-1 closing stage. Total settlement charges could not be more than 10 percent above the initial estimates, absent tightly-defined “unforeseen circumstances” limited to acts of God, war and disasters, among others.

The Good Faith Estimate and the HUD-1 forms are aligned with each for easy comparison, with similar categories and graphic displays of loan origination charges and settlement cost items on both. All fees paid to mortgage brokers by a lender in connection with the interest rate charged to the consumer must now be disclosed and listed on the Good Faith Estimate as a “credit to the borrower.” All settlement agents will now be required to “read aloud” a new “closing script” to mortgage borrowers. The script walks consumers through the various charges on the revised HUD-1, and whether and why they differ from earlier estimates. Finally, the script requires the settlement agent to explain the loan terms and mechanics as stated in the mortgage note itself. The proposals will have a 60 day period for industry and consumer comment, after which HUD is expected to issue them in final form with a period of months set aside to allow lenders, title companies and attorneys to gear up for the new forms and procedures.
Dept. of Housing and Urban Development, March 2008

Fed to Take Mortgages as Collateral
The Federal Reserve delivered a shot in the arm to stressed financial markets by offering to take a big chunk of now difficult-to-trade securities temporarily out of circulation. The offer amounts to a surgical strike at one of the most worrisome new developments in the global credit crunch: A wave of investor selling of mortgage-linked securities. The heavy selling is driving up mortgage interest rates, dealing a fresh blow to the housing market, and threatening the nation’s economy by making credit harder to come by. The Fed will auction off Treasury securities on a weekly basis, and the dealers who buy them will have 28 days to settle up.

The Fed announced that it was increasing the amount of those 28-day term auctions from $60 billion a month to $100 billion a month for as long as needed, and is also initiating $100 billion in 28-day term repurchase agreements with mortgage-backed securities accepted as collateral. The Feds’ open market committee has cut the target for the federal funds overnight rate five times since September, from 5.25 percent to 3 percent. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson noted in a speech this month that the Fed’s short-term interest-rate cuts have also brought down the London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, which many adjustable-rate mortgages are indexed to.
Inman News, March 2008

Sales Steady, Then Recovery
The volume of existing-home sales is expected to hold steady through late spring, with a gradual recovery during the second half of the year as the mortgage situation improves in high-cost areas, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said many buyers have been waiting for higher mortgage loan limits. “The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions,” he said. “Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year.”

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which has moved erratically in recent weeks, is expected to hover around 5.8% most of the year, and then rise to an average of 6.3% in 2009. Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5% this year and 2.4% in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.4% in 2008 and 5.5%next year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, will probably be 3.2% this year and 1.5% in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is expected to grow 1.4% in 2008 and 3.1% next year.
National Association of Realtors, March 2008

U.S. Foreclosures Hit New Records: Texas O.K.
Loans entered the foreclosure process at a record rate during the fourth quarter, and things are likely to get worse before they get better, the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association said. Texas actually declined 1%.

Since the fourth quarter of 2006, the foreclosure start rate for prime ARMs increased from 0.41 percent to 1.06 percent, while the rate for subprime ARMs increased from 2.7 percent to 5.29 percent. Subprime ARMs represented just 7 percent of loans outstanding, but accounted for 42 percent of foreclosure starts
during the fourth quarter. Prime ARMs represented 15 percent of outstanding loans, and 20 percent of the foreclosures started. While millions of ARM borrowers still face interest-rate resets, Duncan said the impact of those payment adjustments will be less than feared because cuts in sort-term interest rates made by the Federal Reserve have also brought down the six-month LIBOR rate, the index used for many subprime ARM loans, by 2.5 percent since last September.

“The reduction in LIBOR will mean that the resets of those loans will bring them very close to current contract rates,” Duncan said. The problem of payment shock “will be much less than thought, although it won’t be ameliorated.”

California and Florida continue to represent a disproportionate share of the foreclosure starts in the country. Those two states represent 21% of all loans outstanding, but accounted for 30% of foreclosure starts in the US. More importantly, they accounted for 39% of all prime ARMs outstanding, but 47% of prime ARM foreclosure starts. Similarly, they represented 29% of all subprime ARMs, but 36%of subprime ARM foreclosure starts. The rate of foreclosure starts in Florida more than tripled between the fourth quarter of 2006 and the fourth quarter of 2007,
while the rate in California more than doubled.
Mortgage Bankers Association, March 2008

NAHB Survey Finds Condo Decline
A recent report from the National Association of Home Builders says about two-thirds of builders reported that they lowered condo prices in the 4th quarter of 2007 to strengthen sales, with an average price reduction of 11 percent. When asked about other marketing strategies, about 70 percent of respondents reported that they included optional items at no costs, paid closing costs or fees, or absorbed financial points for buyers as incentives. “It is going to take time for the extra inventory to be absorbed,” said David Seiders, NAHB chief economist, in a
statement.

About 28 percent of survey respondents reported a higher or somewhat higher cancellation rate for sales in the fourth quarter compared to the same quarter in 2006. The average sales cancellation rate was 19 percent in the fourth quarter, and the median cancellation rate was 12 percent.

In a separate builder confidence report, NAHB announced that the confidence index for the single-family housing market bumped up from 18 in December to 19 in January.
National Association of Home Builder, March 2008

Prepaying Second Home Loan Pays Off:
Rate of return often greater than on savings accounts, stocks
Consumers are looking at all sorts of ways to reduce their debt, save interest dollars and pave a faster path to real equity.

According to Jack Guttentag, professor of finance emeritus at theWharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, consumers should view the yield of principal prepayments on their mortgage as equal to the interest rate on their loan – as long as there is no prepayment penalty included in the loan. Hence, if you are paying 6 percent on your loan, prepaying your mortgage would make more sense than plunking any extra cash into a savings account paying 2-3 percent interest. Guttentag also states that if the yield on mortgage repayment is being compared to the yield on other taxable investments, it doesn’t matter whether yield is measured before tax or after tax (tax-exempt bonds could be an exception).

If the primary residence is owned free and clear, paying off a second home would be a forced savings account, and be judged in a similar way to Guttentag’s guidelines of weighing the yield of a potential investment against the interest rate of your loan.

Average consumers should never invest money they can’t afford to lose. But stashing extra cash into the mortgage of a second home is a secure investment, especially if it will show long-term appreciation. In fact, if you make an extra payment on your principal every month, you can reduce the loan term of a 30-year loan by approximately 12 years. Conversely, by prepaying the loan, you also lose a piece of your mortgage-interest deduction. Your actual savings is computed with your marginal tax rate and your mortgage interest rate.
Inman News, March 2008

Perfect Financial Storm but No Recession
Fear of imminent economic recession may be a self-fulfilling prophecy, according to the latest Anderson Forecast report by University of California, Los Angeles forecasters.

While the report by Edward Leamer, director for the forecast, clings to earlier predictions that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in the short term, it also details the dangers that are stressing consumers and challenging the economy. Leamer referred to the “financial shadow” that can sometimes loom disproportionately large in consumers’ minds and negatively impact spending. This shadow, he stated in his report, has the potential to cause “recession depression,” or fears of a recession.
And if that fear is great enough, and consumers “spend time in their beds instead of in the malls,” then it could become “recession reality,” he said in the report.

Despite the hard-hit housing market, with falling home prices, rising foreclosures, a subprime mortgage market meltdown and a credit crunch, Leamer’s forecast for avoiding an economic recession is based upon a disconnect between housing and the overall labor market and a disconnect between the manufacturing and construction
employment cycles.

“Never before have we had this kind of collapse in housing that was not accompanied by recession.” Even so, Leamer maintains in his report that this time around is different. If this is a recession, Leamer said he would expect to see another 1.5 million workers unemployed by the end of the year, with more job cuts to come. “It’s not a surprise to see that jobelessness did rise at the close of 2007, with the loss in construction industry jobs, though manufacturing jobs have not rebounded much from their losses in the 2001 recession. And absent a peak and a subsequent steep drop in manufacturing jobs, “we are going to have sluggish growth but not a recession,” Leamer stated. Industrial production, likewise, has not dived.

He concluded, “The data don’t yet add up to a recession, and there is nothing here to challenge the basic story of sluggishness that we have had for two years. Don’t worry be happy. You have to avoid recession depression.”
Anderson Forecast, March 2008

Know the Neighborhood
In this battered housing market, choosing the right neighborhood is more important than ever. Some six million Americans are expected to buy a house this year. Whether first-time home buyers or a midcareer worker relocating, they are all contemplating what may be the most significant purchase of their lives at a time when no one is certain how much lower prices might go.

If you are relocating for your job, you likely can’t pick which region you move to. But you can pick where you live within that region, and that could have a big effect on whether or not your home turns out to be a winning investment. Even in hard-hit cities, certain neighborhoods are holding up better than others. One factor is well-known to home buyers: schools. Even if you don’t have children, houses in high-ranked school districts generally retain their value better. But don’t overlook perhaps the most important variable of all: supply and demand.

Though buyers generally get more house for their dollar in more-remote communities, many buyers today are forsaking size for the convenience of being close to the city, often in areas that are redeveloping.
Wall St. Journal, March 2008

Slowdown
After years of meteroric rises, prices in much of Europe are beginning to follow America’s slide. Ireland, a recent star performer, saw the biggest drop in 2007, with property on average worth 7% less than the year before, according to a report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, a trade body.

Other Changes:
Britain – even
Germany – down 6.9%
Spain – down 6%
Italy – even
France – down 3%
Economist.com, March 2008

Numbers: Look Again
When the NAR released home sales numbers for January, it was reported as another bad month – the lowest level in a decade. Look closer. Resales of single family detached houses were actually UP by .5 percent. Condo and coop sales dropped by 6.5 percent, dragging the total down. So the real news is mixed.

Total resales were essentially flat – o.k., but they’re not dropping off the bottom of the charts. Construction starts for new homes actually rose by .8 percent. The NAHB poll of builder confidence rose slightly with stronger traffic through model homes.

Even the Conference Board, a research group representing a broad spectrum of U.S. Industries said things are looking up for housing. Chief Economist Gail Fosler said: …the housing correction is about over…affordability is improving, and with recent interest rate cuts as house prices decline, it should improve further…rising affordability plus demographic trends bode well for the overall outlook.”

And remember what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said after the latest rate cut: The Federal Reserve is not going to let the economy go down the drain because of some dumb subprime loan investments made by large banks during the boom.
NAR Survey, February 2008

First-Time Home Buyers’ Financing Challenges
Falling prices in many parts of the country have improved affordability for those interested in becoming homeowners for the first time, but financing the purchase has become a bigger challenge. Lenders, in general, are requiring larger down payments and higher credit scores, criteria that can trip up first-time buyers.

It is typically first-time buyers who have the toughest time scraping together a down payment. According to the National Association of Realtors, 45% of first-time home buyers opted for 100% financing in July 2006 to June 2007. The median percentage that first-time buyers financed was 98%. Borrowers today are going to have to verify their income and verify their financial assets to lenders, said Frank
Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage agency. A FICO credit score of 660 to 680 is now the minimum most lenders will consider to prove your credit-worthiness, he said.

Those first-time buyers with strong credit histories and a sizable down payment are the best positioned to buy right now. While long-term rates have been somewhat volatile over the past several weeks, the most recent Freddie Mac and Mortgage Bankers Association predictions anticipate the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average less than 6% during the remainder of the year. That’s far below the 8.05% annual average for 2000, according to Freddie Mac statistics.

Hope isn’t all lost for those who don’t have the capital to make a substantial down payment. For one, some prospective home buyers might consider a mortgage backed by the Federal Housing Administration. FHA loans require a 3% down payment, which can be a gift from friends or family. To be eligible, the home price has to be under a certain loan limit, and that varies by location.
The Wall St. Journal, March 2008

State Standards May Have a Say
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – the huge companies that buy most conforming loans from local lenders have agreed to tougher standards for appraisers. Under the deal worked out with NewYork state attorney generalAndrew Cuomo, the big loan buyers agreed to create a “New Home Valuation Protection Code” which has three baseline requirements:
Mortgage brokers will be prohibited from selecting appraisers; Lenders will be prohibited from using “in-house” staff appraisers to conduct initial appraisal, and
Lenders will be prohibited from using appraisal management companies that they own or control.

The benefits are huge, effectively removing potential points of conflict, opportunities where appraisers can be pressured to over-value properties. As a borrower you want a conservative appraisal to prevent overpaying for a property. As a lender you also want conservative appraisals to avoid loans which are too risky.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises – GSEs – former federal agencies that are now private companies overseen by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO).

Since the National Bank Act was enacted in 1864, the federal government has exclusively regulated national banks, credit unions and savings and loan associations. Cuomo, a former HUD Secretary under President Clinton, has effectively found a way for states to impact federally-regulated lenders.
Realty Times, March 2008

Mortgage Fraud Up in 2007
The number of suspicious activity reports related to mortgage fraud increased 31 percent in 2007 compared to the year before, with 60 percent involving false claims on loan applications such as employment history and claimed income. That’s according to an annual report on mortgage fraud by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute (MARI), which said Florida and Nevada led the nation in the rate of suspected mortgage fraud cases, followed by Michigan, California, Utah, Georgia, Virginia, Illinois, New York and Minnesota.

MARI’s report, which relies on statistics from the FBI and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), does not capture all cases of suspected mortgage fraud, because only federally insured financial institutions are required to submit suspicious activity reports to regulators. Although fraud perpetrated on or by independent mortgage banking companies is not reflected in the statistics, the
numbers are considered a useful indicator of trends and for devising strategies for combating mortgage fraud.

At the moment, declining real estate markets in states like Florida, Nevada and California have left many borrowers unable to sell or refinance their properties, and misrepresentations are unmasked when they become delinquent on their loans.

Loan servicers are discovering a “substantial percentage” of prime and noncomforming delinquencies are for loans where the applicants said they planned to occupy a home, but which in fact were used as rental properties from the outset, MARI said.

While the most common type of fraud involved misrepresentations about employment history and claimed income, problems with undisclosed or incorrect debts, liens or judgments increased 50 percent between 2006 and 2007, MARI said.

While many lenders have already instituted stricter requirements for low- or no-documentation loans – or done away with them altogether – MARI recommends that they go to greater lengths to know all the parties involved in the transaction – whether they be loan applicants, loan originators or their own employees.
Mortgage Asset Research Institute, March 2008

Internet Usage: Ageless
Content providers are overlooking the needs of many of today’s Internet users, according to a new BurstMedia study. The online survey, conducted in February 2008 of more than 13,000 Web users 18 years or older, found a majority of Internet users 45 years and older believe that online content, as well as website design and online advertising is skewed toward younger Web users.

Starting with the “Young Boomer” segment (45-54 years) there is a precipitous decline in the number of respondents who say Internet content is focused toward people their age. In fact, within this age segment only one in three believe
online content is focused on people their own age. Only one in five respondents 55 years and older say Internet content is primarily focused on people their own age. Additionally, three-quarters of respondents 45 years and older believe online advertising is not targeted towards them, and focuses on younger audiences.

The Burst survey revealed that website usability is an issue for older Web users. For sites drawing an audience 45 and older, simple navigation and design is critical for retaining those consumers. The one truth across all ages is that the Internet has become an integral part of their everyday life. Two-thirds of respondents said that their daily routine would be disrupted if they could not access the Internet for a week, with 43% saying that they would be significantly impacted.

Overall, three out of five respondents are visiting more websites in a typical week than they were one year ago. An expanded catalog of sites visited is not only a phenomenon of the young; in fact, 63% of respondents 55 years and older say they are visiting more sites today in a typical week of Web surfing than they were one year ago.
Burst Media, March 2008

Housing: Time to Make Your Move
Here are three ways to play today’s housing market:
Trading Up – If you’re hankering after a larger home or a house in a better neighborhood, this could be your chance to trade up on the cheap.

Your new home will probably mean not only a bigger mortgage, but also higher ongoing costs, including homeowner’s insurance, property taxes and maintenance expenses. These ongoing costs will offset a large chunk of any future home-price appreciation.
In other words, trading up to a larger home or a better neighborhood is really about wanting to consume more real estate. Still, like any thrifty shopper, you want to buy when there’s a sale – and that is what today’s market offers.
Doubling Down – Instead of trading up, you might be eyeing a vacation home. Maybe you’re two or three years from retirement and are toying with buying a second home that could become your sole residence once you quit the
work force. Does it make sense to purchase now, given the decline in home prices?
Buying today is no doubt appealing, because it’ll give you a chance to vacation in your future home. But whether it turns out to be a wise financial move depends on what happens to property prices.

The bottom line: If you think you’ll get a lot of use from a second home, go ahead and buy.

Helping Hand – While buying more real estate for your own use may or may not be a great investment, you could help your adult children make good money – by transforming them from renters to homeowners.

To that end, you might give your kids an advance on their eventual inheritance, so they have enough money to make a down payment. Yes, that means they will start to incur the housing costs I mentioned above, including property taxes and maintenance expenses. But your children will also replace their monthly rent check with a monthly
mortgage check, and that will allow them to start building home equity.
Wall St. Journal, March 2008

Ignore the Headlines!
Famed money manager Peter Lynch is perhaps best known for his timeless wisdom: Ignore the headlines. That’s no easy thing. How do you tune out all the chatter and ink on recession, housing, subprime woes, the credit crunch, rogue traders, insolvent insurers, $100 oil and nukes in Iran? There has rarely been a moment in history when you couldn’t scare yourself into doing nothing.

A top reason to not buy stocks, in Lynch’s view, is if you don’t already own a home –in which case, that should be your first investment, since an owner-occupied home is nearly always profitable. When prices are falling, few people have the discipline to buy stocks, a house, gold, art or any other asset. But those who do pull the trigger excel in the long run.

Let’s say you are emotionally ready to be a homeowner. You have good credit, plan to stay put for five years and have been waiting for the perfect entry point. It’s time to get serious – before an inevitable rise in interest rates wipes out your advantage.

Consider a typical home that sells for $218,900. You put down 20% and get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at today’s rate of 5.5%. Monthly principal and interest come to $994.31. Let’s say that 12 months from now the same house goes for 10% less, or $197,010. But by then the recession is history and the Fed is jacking up rates to stem inflation. If mortgage costs rise just half a point, to 6%, your monthly payment would be $994.94 and you’d be saving nothing. Meanwhile, home prices might steady and sellers might become less willing to negotiate. And you have spent a year
living someplace you’d rather not be.
Time Magazine, February 2008

The Stars at Night Are in Your Living Room
High-rise urban living in Texas?

Texas now is home to three of the nation’s 10 most populous cities (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio). Its population continues to grow at phenomenal rates: It added 4 million people in the 1990s and more than 2.5 million so far this decade to top 23.5 million, second only to California.

As people pour in, the state is starting to rein in its historical outward spread and venturing into un-Texan territory: high-density development, downtown living, mass transit and neighborhoods built not just for cars, but for walkers and all things urban.

“The competitive advantage of the six or 10 ‘real’ cities in the country is that they offered unrivaled urban living,” says Robert Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech. “What you have now is a much larger number of places where you can live an urban lifestyle.

“If all you have is a dead downtown and strip malls, you’re toast. There’s a big part of the workforce that just won’t tolerate that anymore.” Texas is rapidly learning that lesson. Its cities are growing up – literally. High-rises, multilevel apartment and condominium buildings are rising in downtowns, on old industrial sites and in abandoned neighborhoods.

The success of light rail in Dallas in particular has spawned developments mixing condos, offices and shops around transit stops in the city and suburbs such as Plano.
When Anthony Flit of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy in Cambridge, Mass., traveled across the country to research his book, This Land: The Battle Over Sprawl and the Future of America, “I went looking for sprawl and urbanism,” he says. He found both in Texas.

Meet the new urban Texas:

Austin has doubled its population every 20 years (709,893 in 2006) since it was founded in 1839. Much of that time, Texas’ capital city has grown away from downtown. Now, the focus is on increasing the population density downtown by building upward.

“At least four towers are going up right now,” says Fritz Steiner, dean of the architecture school at the University of Texas-Austin. “Its pretty dramatic. All around the edges of downtown or central area, one sees, if not high-rises, other apartments and condominium projects.”

The old municipal airport close to downtown is being developed into shops, parks, bike trails, offices, a medical center and residences, including some units for low-income families.

In Fort Worth, where the billionaire Bass family has spurred development of the arts and loft projects downtown, Trinity River View is a proposed 800-acre complex of schools, parks, housing and shops that could add 25,000 residents.

In Houston, there are plans for Discovery Green, a 12-acre park next to the downtown convention center. A 37-story condo tower will rise beside it. Warehouses and factories are being converted to housing. A light-rail line from downtown is sparking development.

San Antonio’s signature River Walk will add another 1 ½ miles to link major museums by the end of next year, a plan that’s drawing interest from residential developers.

Dallas did not experience the dizzying real estate boom that other parts of the USA saw earlier this decade. That has spared it the freefalls in prices and sales that have staggered other areas.

Last year, the city adopted its first growth plan that details a long-term vision. The theme of Forward Dallas! is clear: density, density, density. Dense development is clustering along the 45-mile Dallas Area Rapid Transit light-rail line that connects Dallas and Plano to the north and Garland to the northeast. Construction is underway to almost double the system. By 2013, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport and Love Field, the major airports serving the city, will be linked to
rail.

A 2005 study by professors at the University of North Texas in Denton estimated that more than $3.3 billion had been invested or planned near light-rail stations since 1999.
USAToday.com, January 2008

Texas: The Real State for Real Estate
Texas home prices held up quite well in 2007, despite the weakening housing landscape. U.S. median existing-home prices fell 6.5 percent from December 2006 to December 2007, but Texas metros saw mostly stable home prices, with an overall increase of 1 percent.
Dallas Federal Reserve, March 2008 Bank of Dallas

Consumers’ Choice Award 2008
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