(Sung to the tune of Dennis Moore by Monty Python)

Joe Biden, Joe Biden, sleeping through the night.

Joe Biden, Joe Biden, sleeping through the day.

Takes from the poor.

Gives to the Rich.

Let’s go Brandon.

. . .

Does the start date of Willis Eschenbach’s comparison graph, his Figure 5 (my Figure 1 below), in his recent post at WattsUpWithThat titled “How The El Nino Is Changing”, impact the trends toward La Niña conditions? Answer: Yes. A 9-year earlier start date flattens the trends.

INTRODUCTION

Initial Note: The title of Willis’s recent post at WUWT caught my interest, because it was ENSO related. As you may recall, back when I was blogging regularly, for many years, I wrote many dozens of posts that were cross-posted at WUWT about the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that drive El Niño and La Niña events, and the aftereffects of those events. In Willis’s post, I was hoping to find analyses and documentation of ENSO coupled ocean-atmosphere processes to show how those were changing. But what did I find? A comparison graph of ENSO indices with linear trends and a curious start date.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at that comparison graph, Willis’s Figure 5, which I’ve included as my Figure 1, below. His caption for that comparison graph reads,“Figure 5. LOWESS smooths of four El Nino indices, along with their straight-line trends. El Niño conditions are more positive, La Nina conditions are more negative.”

Figure 1

First: When I was blogging regularly, I had been examining, preparing, and posting graphs of ENSO indices for many years so the first thing that stood out to me was the start year, just before the 1980 hashmark. That caught the attention of at least one other person commenting on the post at WUWT, because most ENSO indices include many decades of data prior to 1980. See the comment by Richard M here and my comment here. Willis’s response to those comments about the start year was that he wanted to include the newest ENSO index, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and that its data began in 1979.

Second: Notice in Willis’s graph that color-coded index for the curve and trend for the Southern Oscillation Index data is incorrectly identified as the “Southern Ocean Index”. Also note a second typo. NOAA has a NINO3.4 Index, not a NINO34 Index.

Third: Willis has inverted the off-equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data. Normally, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data is presented without being inverted so that El Niño spikes are downward and La Niña spikes are upward, which is the opposite of how they appear with the other indices. Of course, he inverted the SOI data so that he could include that off-equatorial ENSO index in his comparison graph.

Fourth: Following his Figure 5, Willis states in the text of his post:

“You can see the peaks representing the big El Ninos around 1997-98 and 2015-16. Recall that according to my thermoregulatory hypothesis, the Pacific should be trending towards a more La Nina condition which is more negative.
“And all four indices, in varying amounts, show this exact outcome—in response to the slow gradual warming since 1980, we have more La Nina conditions cooling the planet.”

I had never heard of Willis’s “thermoregulatory hypothesis” prior to reading his recent post (linked above). Therefore, it will be up to you readers to comment on whether the flattening of the trend lines when the data for the ENSO indices starts in 1970, as shown in the graphs below, has any impact on his “thermoregulatory hypothesis”. I also have a question for you readers about the above quoted paragraphs from Willis’s post. Why did he identify the strong 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niños, but not the strong El Niño of 1982/83, or the strong one of 1987/88 (portion of the 1986/87/88 El Niño), or the strong 1991/92 El Niño? Those other three El Niño events all exceeded NOAA’s +1.5 deg C threshold for a strong El Niño.

Fifth, regarding the start year of Willis’s graph, I stated in a comment on that WUWT thread that the 1980 (1979) start year was curious, considering that it was a few years prior to the strong 1982/83 El Niño. Further on that thread, I suggested to Willis that he exclude the data for the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and he start a set of reference graphs in 1970 to include the La Niña dominant early-to-mid 1970s in an effort to see what happened to the trends. I advised him that I would present them, if he chose not to. He chose not to, as far as I know, so I did. They follow.

So, let’s start the presentation.

A FEW NOTES ABOUT THE FOLLOWING GRAPHS

The following three pairs of time series graphs are provided to show the easily discernable flattening of the trend lines when the start date for the ENSO index graphs is changed from 1979 (used by Willis Eschenbach in his post at WUWT) to 1970. In the graphs starting in 1970, the strong 1972/73 El Niño and the three La Niña events (one moderate, two strong) in the early-to-mid 1970s really stand out in the graphs of the ONI and NINO3.4 data…not so much in the SOI data.

Why did I use 1970 as the start year? The early to mid 1970s are dominated by La Niña events, as are the most recent years. In other words, with the 1970 start year, the graph starts and ends in periods dominated by La Niña events, making it difficult for anyone to accuse me of cherry picking the start year.

I didn’t use any smoothing on the data in the graphs. That would reduce the magnitude of the ENSO variations and make the trends appear greater by comparison. Additionally, as I presented the data for each index individually, there was no need to standardize the data. As a result, the graphs are of data as provided by the suppliers, which are linked in the following discussions.

OCEANIC NINO INDEX (ONI) GRAPHS

Figures 2a and 2b present the unsmoothed monthly Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) data (data here), with 2a starting in January 1979 and 2b with the data starting in January 1970. With the 1979 start (Figure 2a), there is a noticeable trend from positive values to negative, but with the 1970 start (Figure 2b) the trend line flattens greatly.

Figure 2a

Figure 2b

NOAA NINO3.4 INDEX GRAPHS

Figures 3a and 3b present the unsmoothed monthly NOAA NINO3.4 Index data (data here), 3a with the data starting in January 1979 and 3b with the data starting in January 1970. With the 1979 start (Figure 3a), there is a very minor trend from positive values to negative, but with the 1970 start (Figure 3b) the trend changes sign to a very minor trend from negative to positive.

Figure 3a

Figure 3b

SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) GRAPHS

A reminder: The noisy, off-equatorial, sea-level-pressure-based Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data shows El Niño events as downward spikes and La Niña events as upward ones…the opposite of the sea surface temperature-based ENSO indices. Figures 4a and 4b present the unsmoothed monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data (data here), 4a with the data starting in January 1979 and 4b with the data starting in January 1970. With the 1979 start (Figure 4a), there is a noticeable trend from negative (El Niño) values to positive (La Niña) ones, but with the 1970 start (Figure 4b) the trend flattens very noticeably.

Figure 4a

Figure 4b

A FINAL GRAPH: UNSMOOTHED MULTIVARIATE ENSO INDEX (MEI) DATA SHOWS SOMETHING VERY CURIOUS

Figure 5 presents the unsmoothed monthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) starting in January 1979 (data here). A couple of things stand out: Note how the strong El Niño of 2015/16 has a lesser peak value than strong 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niños, while with the sea-surface-temperature-only-based ENSO indices (ONI and NINO3.4 Index) show the 2015/16 El Niño peaks at a higher value than the other two. Note also how the La Niña events toward the end of the MEI data have much greater negative values than the ONI and NINO3.4 data, while toward the beginning, the La Niñas have lesser negative values.

Figure 5

The MEI data appears very skewed toward a negative trend compared to the sea-surface-temperature-only-based ENSO indices; therefore, the next time some alarmist says that strong El Niños are growing stronger due to global warming show them a graph of the MEI data.

CLOSING

In closing, here’s a very brief introduction to El Niño events from one of my recent short stories. It was also included in a 2019 post here at WUWT:

Most news stories about El Niños call them unusual warming events in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, off the west coast of South America. They’re the cause of the huge upward spikes we see in the global surface temperature graphs.”

They are much more than just warming events, and, further, regardless of what the numbskull science reporters say, there’s nothing unusual about them.” … “Magnificent would be a better word. Here are the facts. El Niño events occur every two to seven years. El Niños are the most-amazing, and the most powerful, weather events ever devised by Mother Nature. How powerful? El Niños are often kick-started by series of tropical storms in the western tropical Pacific.

Further from that post:

El Niño and La Niña events act together as a chaotic, naturally occurring, sunlight-fueled, recharge-discharge oscillator, with El Niño events acting as the discharge phase and La Niña events acting as the recharge phase...

I hope you enjoyed this post. Have fun.

Regards,
Bob

Question 1: So how’s that working out for us?

Question 2: Is it time for a change of Director for the NIAID?

Warning! It’s extremely hard to “UH” listen to.

Stay safe and healthy, “UH”, all.

Regards,
Bob

HAVE FUN IN THE COMMENTS

Stay safe and healthy, all.
Bob

With the 2020 U.S. elections rapidly approaching, I’ve prepared this series of 10 blog posts that present graphs of NOAA data for the Contiguous United States in an effort to combat the constant misinformation and disinformation being spewed by politicians. This series of posts is not intended to try to change the beliefs of the brainwashed devotees of human-induced global warming/climate change; it is intended to support and strengthen the understandings of those who are not among the indoctrinated masses.

IMPORTANT NOTE

For an overview and discussion of the graphs that follow, see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It also includes parts of the Introduction of the book. That post should answer any questions you might have.

[End Note.]

The source of the primary data is the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. The source of the older (pre-adjustments) near-surface average air temperature (TAVG) data is the 1984 Karl and Koss paper Regional and National Monthly, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Area. The Karl and Koss 1984 paper is available from NOAA here.

The numbering of the illustrations is from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, and that numbering coincides with those used by NOAA at their NNDC CDO website.  I also added lettering to the graphs to maintain a standard sequence throughout the book.

Comparison of Annual TAVG Data Before and After NOAA Adjustments

The following is the introductory text from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate that explains the before and after graph that begins the data (in graph form) presentation of this post.

NOAA is very open about the adjustments they’ve made to the U.S. temperature records. In fact, the adjustments to the temperature records for the United States are discussed as part of the Q&A on the NOAA webpage titled Monitoring Global and U.S. Temperatures at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/temperature-monitoring.php)

There they begin:

There are several factors that are important in monitoring global or U.S. temperature: quality of raw observations, length of record of observations, and the analysis methods used to transform raw data into reliable climate data records by removing existing biases from the data. An additional process takes the multiple climate data records and creates U.S. or global average temperatures.

On that NOAA webpage, there are links to more-detailed descriptions of the adjustments and their reasoning behind them, including scientific studies.

While preparing this series of books, I came across a paper NOAA published in 1984 that lists the monthly and average temperatures for the contiguous United States and its nine climate regions. The authors of the 1984 NOAA paper are Thomas R. Karl and Walter James Koss, and the paper’s title is (their caps) REGIONAL AND NATIONAL MONTHLY, SEASONAL, AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURE WEIGHTED BY AREA. The paper can be found here: (https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/10238).

I then compared the curves and linear trends of the 1984 and current editions of those temperature data for the period of 1919 to 1983 (the start year of the graphs in this book and the last year of the “old” data).

United States (Contiguous) Old vs Current TAVG Temperature Data

Figure Old v Current TAVG Data-10

Note: Sadly, the Karl and Koss 1984 paper only included the TAVG data.  It would have been interesting to see which metric, TMIN or TMAX, NOAA has adjusted more.

# # #

NOAA CLIMATE DATA FOR CONTIGUOUS U.S.

The following are the six graphs of the precipitation, PDSI, and temperature data for the Contiguous U.S. from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate.  They were published without comment from me in the book. Again, refer to the post here for more information about the graphs. Also, once more, the data presented in the next six graphs were extracted from the data available at the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website.

United States (Contiguous) Precipitation Data

Figure 110a

# # #

United States (Contiguous) Palmer Drought Severity Index Data

Figure 110b

# # #

United States (Contiguous) Temperature Indices Data

Figure 110c

# # #

United States (Contiguous) 30-Year Monthly Temperature (TAVG) Averages Comparison

Figure 110d

# # #

United States (Contiguous) 30-Year Monthly Temperature (TMIN) Averages Comparison

Figure 110e

# # #

United States (Contiguous) 30-Year Monthly Temperature (TMAX) Averages Comparison

Figure 110f

# # #

ARCHIVED DATA PAGE

As noted earlier, the source of the data presented above in this post was the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. I archived the NOAA data pages as I downloaded the data.  The archived NOAA NNDC CDO data page for the Contiguous United States (from 1900-January 2019) is here.

THE REST OF THIS SERIES OF POSTS

Note: Much of the text in each post is boilerplate. Of course, the graphs are different for each region, and hyperlinks to the archived NOAA data pages are different for each post.  [End note.]

ALREADY POSTED

• 101 Northeast Region (includes the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont).
• 102 East North Southeast Region (includes the states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).
• 103 Central Region (includes the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia.)
• 104 Southeast Region (includes the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia.)
• 105 West North Central Region (includes the states of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.)
• 106 South Climate Region (includes the states of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas.)
• 107 Southwest Climate Region (includes the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.)
• 108 Northwest Climate Region (includes the states of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.)
• 109 West Climate Region (includes the states of California and Nevada.)

# # #

A REMINDER

Again, please see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It should answer any questions you have about the graphs.

# # #

A FEW MORE METRICS

To close this post, I’m reproducing the CLOSING from Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. I’ve added a couple of hyperlinks that could not appear in the text of that paperback.

I suspect some of you are also interested in the number of hurricanes that make landfall here in the continental United States, in the number of tornados that touchdown in the Contiguous U.S., in flood data for the states, and in wildfire data, too.   I made those data presentations in my Kindle ebook short story titled Dad, Is Climate Getting Worse in the United States?. The subtitle of that short story is Book 2 in the DAD, WHY ARE YOU A GLOBAL WARMING DENIER? Series.   Figures Closing-1 through -3 are examples of the graphs included in Dad, Is Climate Getting Worse in the United States?.  Data sources for these graphs are linked in that ebook, in addition to being listed below the graphs.

Figure Closing-1

# # #

Figure Closing-2

# # #

Figure Closing-3

# # #

Again, please see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It should answer any questions you have about the graphs.

I have no plans to prepare blog posts for the data for the individual states. For those, you’ll either have to download the data from NOAA and prepare your own spreadsheet-based graphs, or you can buy my paperback book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, – Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published.

Regards,

Bob

PS: Just in case you didn’t notice or you have trouble reading graphs, as NOAA data confirms, climate for the Contiguous U.S. as a whole has improved over the past 100 years.

With the 2020 U.S. elections rapidly approaching, I’ve prepared this series of 10 blog posts that present graphs of NOAA data for the Contiguous United States in an effort to combat the constant misinformation and disinformation being spewed by politicians. This series of posts is not intended to try to change the beliefs of the brainwashed devotees of human-induced global warming/climate change; it is intended to support and strengthen the understandings of those who are not among the indoctrinated masses.

The West Region is made up of the states of California, and Nevada.  A map of the 9 NOAA climate regions of the contiguous U.S. is here.

IMPORTANT NOTE

For an overview and discussion of the graphs that follow, see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It also includes parts of the Introduction of the book. That post should answer any questions you might have.

[End Note.]

The source of the primary data is the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. The source of the older (pre-adjustments) near-surface average air temperature (TAVG) data is the 1984 Karl and Koss paper Regional and National Monthly, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Area. The Karl and Koss 1984 paper is available from NOAA here.

The numbering of the illustrations is from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, and that numbering coincides with those used by NOAA at their NNDC CDO website.  I also added lettering to the graphs to maintain a standard sequence throughout the book. 

Comparison of Annual TAVG Data Before and After NOAA Adjustments

The following is the introductory text from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate that explains the before-and-after-adjustments graph that follows.

NOAA is very open about the adjustments they’ve made to the U.S. temperature records. In fact, the adjustments to the temperature records for the United States are discussed as part of the Q&A on the NOAA webpage titled Monitoring Global and U.S. Temperatures at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/temperature-monitoring.php)

There they begin:

There are several factors that are important in monitoring global or U.S. temperature: quality of raw observations, length of record of observations, and the analysis methods used to transform raw data into reliable climate data records by removing existing biases from the data. An additional process takes the multiple climate data records and creates U.S. or global average temperatures.

On that NOAA webpage, there are links to more-detailed descriptions of the adjustments and their reasoning behind them, including scientific studies.

While preparing this series of books, I came across a paper NOAA published in 1984 that lists the monthly and average temperatures for the contiguous United States and its nine climate regions. The authors of the 1984 NOAA paper are Thomas R. Karl and Walter James Koss, and the paper’s title is (their caps) REGIONAL AND NATIONAL MONTHLY, SEASONAL, AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURE WEIGHTED BY AREA. The paper can be found here: (https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/10238).

I then compared the curves and linear trends of the 1984 and current editions of those temperature data for the period of 1919 to 1983 (the start year of the graphs in this book and the last year of the “old” data).

West Region Old vs Current TAVG Temperature Data

Figure Old v Current TAVG Data-9

Note: Sadly, the Karl and Koss 1984 paper only included the TAVG data.  It would have been interesting to see which metric, TMIN or TMAX, NOAA has adjusted more.  [End note.]

# # #

WEST NOAA CLIMATE REGION DATA

The following are the six graphs of the precipitation, PDSI, and temperature data for the West NOAA climate region of the Contiguous U.S. from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate.  They were published without comment from me in the book.  Again, refer to the post here for more information about the graphs. Also, once more, the data presented in the next six graphs were extracted from the data available at the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website.

West Region Precipitation Data

Figure 109a

# # #

West Region Palmer Drought Severity Index Data

Figure 109b

# # #

West Region Temperature Indices Data

Figure 109c

# # #

West Region 30-Year Monthly Average Temperature (TAVG) Averages Comparison

Figure 109d

# # #

West Region 30-Year Monthly Low Temperature (TMIN) Averages Comparison

Figure 109e

# # #

West Region 30-Year Monthly High Temperature (TMAX) Averages Comparison

Figure 109f

# # #

ARCHIVED DATA PAGE

As noted a few times earlier, the source of the data presented above in this post was the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. I archived the NOAA data pages as I downloaded the data.  The archived NOAA NNDC CDO data page for the West NOAA climate region for the Contiguous United States (from 1900-January 2019) is here.

THE REST OF THIS SERIES OF POSTS

Note: Much of the text in each post is boilerplate. Of course, the graphs are different for each region, and hyperlinks to the archived NOAA data pages were added with each new post.  [End note.]

ALREADY POSTED

• 101 Northeast Region (includes the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont).
• 102 East North Southeast Region (includes the states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).
• 103 Central Region (includes the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia.)
• 104 Southeast Region (includes the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia.)
• 105 West North Central Region (includes the states of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.)
• 106 South Climate Region (includes the states of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas.)
• 107 Southwest Climate Region (includes the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.)
• 108 Northwest Climate Region (includes the states of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.)

FUTURE POSTS

• 110 Contiguous U.S. As A Whole

CLOSING

Again, please see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It should answer any questions you have about the graphs.

I have no plans to prepare blog posts for the data for the individual states. For those, you’ll either have to download the data from NOAA and prepare your own spreadsheet-based graphs, or you can buy my paperback book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, – Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published.

Regards,

Bob

With the 2020 U.S. elections rapidly approaching, I’ve prepared this series of 10 blog posts that present graphs of NOAA data for the Contiguous United States in an effort to combat the constant misinformation and disinformation being spewed by politicians. This series of posts is not intended to try to change the beliefs of the brainwashed devotees of human-induced global warming/climate change; it is intended to support and strengthen the understandings of those who are not among the indoctrinated masses.

The Northwest Region is made up of the states of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.  A map of the 9 NOAA climate regions of the contiguous U.S. is here.

IMPORTANT NOTE

For an overview and discussion of the graphs that follow, see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It also includes parts of the Introduction of the book. That post should answer any questions you might have.

[End Note.]

The source of the primary data is the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. The source of the older (pre-adjustments) near-surface average air temperature (TAVG) data is the 1984 Karl and Koss paper Regional and National Monthly, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Area. The Karl and Koss 1984 paper is available from NOAA here.

The numbering of the illustrations is from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, and that numbering coincides with those used by NOAA at their NNDC CDO website.  I also added lettering to the graphs to maintain a standard sequence throughout the book.

Comparison of Annual TAVG Data Before and After NOAA Adjustments

The following is the introductory text from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate that explains the before-and-after-adjustments graph that follows.

NOAA is very open about the adjustments they’ve made to the U.S. temperature records. In fact, the adjustments to the temperature records for the United States are discussed as part of the Q&A on the NOAA webpage titled Monitoring Global and U.S. Temperatures at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/temperature-monitoring.php)

There they begin:

There are several factors that are important in monitoring global or U.S. temperature: quality of raw observations, length of record of observations, and the analysis methods used to transform raw data into reliable climate data records by removing existing biases from the data. An additional process takes the multiple climate data records and creates U.S. or global average temperatures.

On that NOAA webpage, there are links to more-detailed descriptions of the adjustments and their reasoning behind them, including scientific studies.

While preparing this series of books, I came across a paper NOAA published in 1984 that lists the monthly and average temperatures for the contiguous United States and its nine climate regions. The authors of the 1984 NOAA paper are Thomas R. Karl and Walter James Koss, and the paper’s title is (their caps) REGIONAL AND NATIONAL MONTHLY, SEASONAL, AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURE WEIGHTED BY AREA. The paper can be found here: (https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/10238).

I then compared the curves and linear trends of the 1984 and current editions of those temperature data for the period of 1919 to 1983 (the start year of the graphs in this book and the last year of the “old” data).

Northwest Region Old vs Current TAVG Temperature Data

Figure Old v Current TAVG Data-8

Note: Sadly, the Karl and Koss 1984 paper only included the TAVG data.  It would have been interesting to see which metric, TMIN or TMAX, NOAA has adjusted more.  [End note.]

# # #

NORTHWEST NOAA CLIMATE REGION DATA

The following are the six graphs of the precipitation, PDSI, and temperature data for the Northwest NOAA climate region of the Contiguous U.S. from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate.  They were published without comment from me in the book.  Again, refer to the post here for more information about the graphs. Also, once more, the data presented in the next six graphs were extracted from the data available at the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website.

Northwest Region Precipitation Data

Figure 108a

# # #

Northwest Region Palmer Drought Severity Index Data

Figure 108b

# # #

Northwest Region Temperature Indices Data

Figure 108c

# # #

Northwest Region 30-Year Monthly Average Temperature (TAVG) Averages Comparison

Figure 108d

# # #

Northwest Region 30-Year Monthly Low Temperature (TMIN) Averages Comparison

Figure 108e

# # #

Northwest Region 30-Year Monthly High Temperature (TMAX) Averages Comparison

Figure 108f

# # #

ARCHIVED DATA PAGE

As noted a few times earlier, the source of the data presented above in this post was the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. I archived the NOAA data pages as I downloaded the data.  The archived NOAA NNDC CDO data page for the Northwest NOAA climate region for the Contiguous United States (from 1900-January 2019) is here.

THE REST OF THIS SERIES OF POSTS

Note: Much of the text in each post is boilerplate. Of course, the graphs are different for each region, as are the hyperlinks to the archived NOAA data pages.  [End note.]

ALREADY POSTED

• 101 Northeast Region (includes the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont).
• 102 East North Southeast Region (includes the states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).
• 103 Central Region (includes the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia.)
• 104 Southeast Region (includes the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia.)
• 105 West North Central Region (includes the states of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.)
• 106 South Climate Region (includes the states of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas.)
• 107 Southwest Climate Region (includes the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.)

FUTURE POSTS

• 109 West Region (includes the states of California, and Nevada)
• 110 Contiguous U.S. As A Whole

CLOSING

Again, please see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It should answer any questions you have about the graphs.

I have no plans to prepare blog posts for the data for the individual states. For those, you’ll either have to download the data from NOAA and prepare your own spreadsheet-based graphs, or you can buy my paperback book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, – Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published.

Regards,

Bob

With the 2020 U.S. elections rapidly approaching, I’ve prepared this series of 10 blog posts that present graphs of NOAA data for the Contiguous United States in an effort to combat the constant misinformation and disinformation being spewed by politicians. This series of posts is not intended to try to change the beliefs of the brainwashed devotees of human-induced global warming/climate change; it is intended to support and strengthen the understandings of those who are not among the indoctrinated masses.

The Southwest Region is made up of the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.  A map of the 9 NOAA climate regions of the contiguous U.S. is here.

IMPORTANT NOTE

For an overview and discussion of the graphs that follow, see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It also includes parts of the Introduction of the book. That post should answer any questions you might have.

[End Note.]

The source of the primary data is the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. The source of the older (pre-adjustments) near-surface average air temperature (TAVG) data is the 1984 Karl and Koss paper Regional and National Monthly, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Area. The Karl and Koss 1984 paper is available from NOAA here.

The numbering of the illustrations is from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, and that numbering coincides with those used by NOAA at their NNDC CDO website.  I also added lettering to the graphs to maintain a standard sequence throughout the book.

Comparison of Annual TAVG Data Before and After NOAA Adjustments

The following is the introductory text from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate that explains the before-and-after-adjustments graph that follows.

NOAA is very open about the adjustments they’ve made to the U.S. temperature records. In fact, the adjustments to the temperature records for the United States are discussed as part of the Q&A on the NOAA webpage titled Monitoring Global and U.S. Temperatures at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/temperature-monitoring.php)

There they begin:

There are several factors that are important in monitoring global or U.S. temperature: quality of raw observations, length of record of observations, and the analysis methods used to transform raw data into reliable climate data records by removing existing biases from the data. An additional process takes the multiple climate data records and creates U.S. or global average temperatures.

On that NOAA webpage, there are links to more-detailed descriptions of the adjustments and their reasoning behind them, including scientific studies.

While preparing this series of books, I came across a paper NOAA published in 1984 that lists the monthly and average temperatures for the contiguous United States and its nine climate regions. The authors of the 1984 NOAA paper are Thomas R. Karl and Walter James Koss, and the paper’s title is (their caps) REGIONAL AND NATIONAL MONTHLY, SEASONAL, AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURE WEIGHTED BY AREA. The paper can be found here: (https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/10238).

I then compared the curves and linear trends of the 1984 and current editions of those temperature data for the period of 1919 to 1983 (the start year of the graphs in this book and the last year of the “old” data).

Southwest Region Old vs Current TAVG Temperature Data

Figure Old v Current TAVG Data-7

Note: Sadly, the Karl and Koss 1984 paper only included the TAVG data.  It would have been interesting to see which metric, TMIN or TMAX, NOAA has adjusted more.  [End note.]

# # #

SOUTHWEST NOAA CLIMATE REGION DATA

The following are the six graphs of the precipitation, PDSI, and temperature data for the Southwest NOAA climate region of the Contiguous U.S. from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate.  They were published without comment from me in the book.  Again, refer to the post here for more information about the graphs. Also, once more, the data presented in the next six graphs were extracted from the data available at the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website.

Southwest Region Precipitation Data

Figure 107a

# # #

Southwest Region Palmer Drought Severity Index Data

Figure 107b

# # #

Southwest Region Temperature Indices Data

Figure 107c

# # #

Southwest Region 30-Year Monthly Average Temperature (TAVG) Averages Comparison

Figure 107d

# # #

Southwest Region 30-Year Monthly Low Temperature (TMIN) Averages Comparison

Figure 107e

# # #

Southwest Region 30-Year Monthly High Temperature (TMAX) Averages Comparison

Figure 107f

# # #

ARCHIVED DATA PAGE

As noted a few times earlier, the source of the data presented above in this post was the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. I archived the NOAA data pages as I downloaded the data.  The archived NOAA NNDC CDO data page for the Southwest NOAA climate region for the Contiguous United States (from 1900-January 2019) is here.

THE REST OF THIS SERIES OF POSTS

Note: Much of the text in each post is boilerplate. Of course, the graphs are different for each region, as are the hyperlinks to the archived NOAA data pages.  [End note.]

ALREADY POSTED

• 101 Northeast Region (includes the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont).
• 102 East North Southeast Region (includes the states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).
• 103 Central Region (includes the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia.)
• 104 Southeast Region (includes the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia.)
• 105 West North Central Region (includes the states of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.)
• 106 South Climate Region (includes the states of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas.)

FUTURE POSTS

• 108 Northwest (includes the states of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington)
• 109 West Region (includes the states of California, and Nevada)
• 110 Contiguous U.S. As A Whole

CLOSING

Again, please see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It should answer any questions you have about the graphs.

I have no plans to prepare blog posts for the data for the individual states. For those, you’ll either have to download the data from NOAA and prepare your own spreadsheet-based graphs, or you can buy my paperback book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, – Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published.

Regards,

Bob

With the 2020 U.S. elections rapidly approaching, I’ve prepared this series of 10 blog posts that present graphs of NOAA data for the Contiguous United States in an effort to combat the constant misinformation and disinformation being spewed by politicians. This series of posts is not intended to try to change the beliefs of the brainwashed devotees of human-induced global warming/climate change; it is intended to support and strengthen the understandings of those who are not among the indoctrinated masses.

The South Region is made up of the states of Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas.  A map of the 9 NOAA climate regions of the contiguous U.S. is here.

IMPORTANT NOTE

For an overview and discussion of the graphs that follow, see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It also includes parts of the Introduction of the book. That post should answer any questions you might have.

[End Note.]

The source of the primary data is the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. The source of the older (pre-adjustments) near-surface average air temperature (TAVG) data is the 1984 Karl and Koss paper Regional and National Monthly, Seasonal, and Annual Temperature Weighted by Area. The Karl and Koss 1984 paper is available from NOAA here.

The numbering of the illustrations is from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, and that numbering coincides with those used by NOAA at their NNDC CDO website.  I also added lettering to the graphs to maintain a standard sequence throughout the book.

Comparison of Annual TAVG Data Before and After NOAA Adjustments

The following is the introductory text from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate that explains the before-and-after-adjustments graph that follows.

NOAA is very open about the adjustments they’ve made to the U.S. temperature records. In fact, the adjustments to the temperature records for the United States are discussed as part of the Q&A on the NOAA webpage titled Monitoring Global and U.S. Temperatures at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/temperature-monitoring.php)

There they begin:

There are several factors that are important in monitoring global or U.S. temperature: quality of raw observations, length of record of observations, and the analysis methods used to transform raw data into reliable climate data records by removing existing biases from the data. An additional process takes the multiple climate data records and creates U.S. or global average temperatures.

On that NOAA webpage, there are links to more-detailed descriptions of the adjustments and their reasoning behind them, including scientific studies.

While preparing this series of books, I came across a paper NOAA published in 1984 that lists the monthly and average temperatures for the contiguous United States and its nine climate regions. The authors of the 1984 NOAA paper are Thomas R. Karl and Walter James Koss, and the paper’s title is (their caps) REGIONAL AND NATIONAL MONTHLY, SEASONAL, AND ANNUAL TEMPERATURE WEIGHTED BY AREA. The paper can be found here: (https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/10238).

I then compared the curves and linear trends of the 1984 and current editions of those temperature data for the period of 1919 to 1983 (the start year of the graphs in this book and the last year of the “old” data).

South Region Old vs Current TAVG Temperature Data

Figure Old v Current TAVG Data-6

Note: Sadly, the Karl and Koss 1984 paper only included the TAVG data.  It would have been interesting to see which metric, TMIN or TMAX, NOAA has adjusted more.  [End note.]

# # #

SOUTH NOAA CLIMATE REGION DATA

The following are the six graphs of the precipitation, PDSI, and temperature data for the South NOAA climate region of the Contiguous U.S. from the book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate.  They were published without comment from me in the book.  Again, refer to the post here for more information about the graphs. Also, once more, the data presented in the next six graphs were extracted from the data available at the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website.

South Region Precipitation Data

Figure 106a

# # #

South Region Palmer Drought Severity Index Data

Figure 106b

# # #

South Region Temperature Indices Data

Figure 106c

# # #

South Region 30-Year Monthly Average Temperature (TAVG) Averages Comparison

Figure 106d

# # #

South Region 30-Year Monthly Low Temperature (TMIN) Averages Comparison

Figure 106e

# # #

South Region 30-Year Monthly High Temperature (TMAX) Averages Comparison

Figure 106f

# # #

ARCHIVED DATA PAGE

As noted a few times earlier, the source of the data presented above in this post was the NOAA National Data Center Climate Data Online (NNDC CDO) website. I archived the NOAA data pages as I downloaded the data.  The archived NOAA NNDC CDO data page for the South NOAA climate region for the Contiguous United States (from 1900-January 2019) is here.

THE REST OF THIS SERIES OF POSTS

Note: Much of the text in each post is boilerplate. Of course, the graphs are different for each region, as are the hyperlinks to the archived NOAA data pages.  [End note.]

ALREADY POSTED

• 101 Northeast Region (includes the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont).
• 102 East North Southeast Region (includes the states of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin).
• 103 Central Region (includes the states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia.)
• 104 Southeast Region (includes the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia.)
• 105 West North Central Region (includes the states of Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.)

FUTURE POSTS

• 107 Southwest Region (includes the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)
• 108 Northwest (includes the states of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington)
• 109 West Region (includes the states of California, and Nevada)
• 110 Contiguous U.S. As A Whole

CLOSING

Again, please see the post New Book: Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate. Subtitle: Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published. (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here.) It should answer any questions you have about the graphs.

I have no plans to prepare blog posts for the data for the individual states. For those, you’ll either have to download the data from NOAA and prepare your own spreadsheet-based graphs, or you can buy my paperback book Extremes and Averages in Contiguous U.S. Climate, – Graphs of 100 Years of NOAA Contiguous U.S. Climate Data (2018 Edition) – A Book That NOAA Should Have Published.

Regards,

Bob