Bob's Blog - Live from Lewisville

Protecting Romo

2012-01-27T07:27:00.003-06:00

Protecting the QB is the name of the game in the National Football League. If you are lucky enough to have an elite arm throwing the football for you, then you simply must give him time to distribute the football. This is an era where the rules of the sport greatly favor the offense in nearly every situation. These rules allow for a record number of yardage through the air from offenses around the league. And the only thing that can slow it down for even a second is getting a big pass rush going. That might explain the difference between the Cowboys who are today experiencing the end of the 4th week of their offseason, or the New York Giants who are packing for Super Bowl 46.

In those two head to head match-ups in December between the two teams that battled for the NFC East divisional crown, the Giants out-sacked the Cowboys, 9-2. In the 5 games to finish the season (post-Thanksgiving), the Cowboys were sacked 19 times (the 2nd most in the NFL) and the Giants allowed Eli Manning to be sacked just eight times. In fact, only 4 teams in the league allowed fewer sacks than the Giants after Dec 1 to finish the season. The playoffs have been a difficult proposition for the Giants, as they have allowed 8 sacks in 3 games and Eli took a beating in San Francisco. Meanwhile, their Super Bowl opponent, New England has allowed Tom Brady to be sacked just once. Much like Super Bowl 42, the winner of Super Bowl 46 might come down to pass protection again.

So, from a Dallas Cowboys perspective, let's examine 2011 on the basis of giving Tony Romo time to throw. Now, before we proceed, it should be clearly pointed out that sack totals allowed can be one of the more deceiving statistics available as a sole metric for pass protection. Sacks can be avoided easily if the goal is to avoid sacks. Quick releases, keeping players in to double in pass protection, and not even calling pass plays are 3 simple ways to avoid sacks. But, the name of the game for any offense is to put points up on the scoreboard, and this often requires a team to risk getting their QB hit. Which leads us to another reason sacks are faulty. Sacks are all-or-nothing stats, where "almost sacks" are not recorded. Pressures and QB hits are way too subjective and not universally recorded or recognized to be properly measured.

A QB's ability to move in the pocket is invaluable to pass protection, and Tony Romo is a natural in this category. He has kept numerous plays alive this season that were doomed from the start, but because he can move, spin, and slide in the pocket, he saves a lot of blame by avoiding a sack and then delivering a throw. But, usually, the pressure eventually busts pipes, and in December, the Cowboys conceded multiple sacks in every game, and 2 games in particular were a complete disaster; 5 sacks at Arizona and 6 sacks at New York.

Looking at the last decade of Cowboys' sack totals allowed, you see the numbers are actually quite manageable whenever Romo has been under center. This year was the worst season of his 6 years in terms of sacks allowed (39), but nowhere near as bad as 2005 when Drew Bledsoe was sacked 50 times or 2002 when Chad Hutchinson was sacked 34 times in just 9 games and the team suffered 54 sacks in the season. 2002 finished 2nd to only 1986 in Cowboys history for sacks allowed. In 1986, the team was sacked 60 times - Steve Pelluer alone, 47! So, by historical lows, 39 doesn't seem so bad.

Of the 39 sacks allowed, 28 were on the road (72%). This sort of home/road split is actually quite uncommon. And this goes back to my long-believed premise that Jason Garrett calls a completely different game plan on the road than he does at home.

Also, the sack totals by month were shocking: September 6, October 9, November 5, and December 19. It should be noted that September only contained 3 games and December had 5, but nevertheless, it is clear that the dam broke after Thanksgiving.

39 sacks-against ranks them tied for 14th in the NFL. St Louis was worst with 55, Buffalo best with 23. From a pass play percentage, they were sacked 6.4% of the time or once every 15.6 passes. New Orleans was the best at 3.5% and Miami was the worst at 10%.

Let's look at each offensive lineman in the department of pass protection and what led to sacks. Again, this is faulty research because we are not discussing pressures and other busts - only those that resulted in sacks. I broke down every sack allowed this season and attempted to find the fault in each play. This is sometimes very easy and other times it is a complete line collapse. We also used data from profootballfocus.com to further fill in some gaps.

So here is the individual pass protection numbers for the OL:

LT - Doug Free - 641 pass plays - 10 sacks: Free started the season very well coming off his new contract. In the first 4 weeks of the season, Free was not involved in hardly any situations that led to sacks. Andre Carter went around his edge in New England, as did James Hall of the Rams, and Trent Cole of the Eagles. There was one blitz awareness issue in the game at Washington that led to London Fletcher's sack, but otherwise a very strong month of November. But, in December, Free was just beaten over and over again (6 of his 10 sacks in December). In fairness to Free, Jason Pierre Paul was dominating the rest of the league, too, but against the Giants and JPP, Free was eaten alive. 4 sacks in 2 games just from the left tackle spot and Trent Cole got him again in Dallas. In all, I had Free as the primary blame in 10 sacks this season, but with 2 against Cole and 3 against Pierre-Paul (and 1 more against Chris Canty) meant that 6 of his 10 sacks allowed were against the Giants and Eagles. Free sees the toughest match-up nearly ever Sunday, so, I am not here to suggest he is doing a lousy job, but it does appear that he might be more of a right tackle in the long term.

LG - Montrae Holland - 361 pass plays - 1 sack: Now, we must keep in mind that interior sacks are much less acceptable and much more easy to defend. However, Holland did a nice job in limited duty making sure he was not to blame for these breakdowns very often. He generally was helping in double teams and not left on an island very often. The one sack he conceded was in Week 14 against the Giants when Chris Canty beat him for a sack.

LG/C/RG - Kevin Kowalski - 82 pass plays - 2 sacks: Kowalski was thrown into duty on a number of occasions because of in-game injuries to the interior. He did a reasonable job until week 17 when he had to replace Kyle Kosier at RG and was tossed about like a rag doll on a few occasions, giving up a ask to Osi Umenyiora on a stunt to the inside and then Justin Tuck threw him on his way to getting to Romo to end the Cowboys season. He will need to improve his strength and anchor to survive.

C - Phil Costa - 601 pass plays - 3 sacks: On a play by play basis this season, the Cowboys center had immense issues in dealing with the bulls that he must block all season. However, in terms of actual sacks allowed, Gary Gibson beat him clean to get to Romo against the Rams, Chris Neild jacked him back into Romo at Washington, and Paris Lenon sprinted past him to nail Romo at Arizona. As December hit, there is no question that he was being targeted by inside blitzes, including the one that knocked Romo out on Christmas Eve. He is not always assignment-sound on who to block. This is an area where the Cowboys will need to either really develop him for next season or get a replacement because the amount of inside pressure against the Cowboys OL was a real hinderance when the season was on the line.

RG - Kyle Kosier - 618 pass plays - 4 sacks: Kosier had a disappointing year that many insiders blame on his deteriorating health, but regardless, he normally doesn't lose as many inside battles. His run blocking was actually a bigger concern, but in pass protection, he was bulled back by Ray McDonald for a rather easy sack in San Francisco, a blitzing Bart Scott got him in New York, another Osi stunt in Week 17 went past him, and Juqua Parker stunted past of the Eagles. You hope a healthy Kosier can be solid as a rock, but we seldom see a healthy Kosier survive an entire season. He has many miles on his tires and will give you everything he has, but it is a battle to stay on the field.

RT - Tyron Smith - 641 pass plays - 8 sacks: A world of expectations have been placed on Tyron Smith, and he took every single snap he could this season at right tackle. From day one, teams tried to confuse him with stunts and blitzes to make his rookie head spin. He also was victim to some old tricks with one pass rush move setting up another. He had Calvin Pace beat him in Week 1, Ryan Kerrigan in week 3. Willie Young bull rushed him on to his back to end the Lions game, Andre Carter went clean around his flank in game 5. Then Jason Babin used two inside spins to get him in Philadelphia and Trevor Laws stunted around him to get a 3rd in that forgettable night against the Eagles. But, here is the great news. Starting in the 2nd half of the year, as the rest of the line was crumbling, Tyron was figuring it out. Kerrigan got him again in Washington and Michael Bennett did get his flank in Tampa Bay, but that was it. All of the troubles against the Giants were not because of right tackle. In his first 7 games, Tyron game up 6 sacks. In his last 9 games, he only conceded 2. His upside is immense and he is only getting better.

As you can see, that only accounts for 28 of the 39 sacks. at least 4 more were caused by Romo holding the ball too long. Another 2 were blitz pickups by running backs, and a few more were too chaotic to blame any one man. Pass protection is something that must be done in concert as a unit or everything looks bad.

Overall, it is clear that Jason Garrett and Jerry Jones tried to limit this number by "the road game plan" which includes quick passes, lots of shotgun, and not allowing Romo to stand back there and look for wide receivers down the field. They knew that they could not trust the offensive line to give substantial time and that is why this is a major area of need to get deep into January next season.

There is some things to like, but overall, this will be the charge of Bill Callahan and Garrett with the players, and Jones and his war-room in the offseason. Figure out a way to better protect the QB, and this will lead to more opportunities down the field for the skill players.

Eyeing Calais Campbell

2012-01-24T20:38:00.003-06:00

On draft day 2011, the Dallas Cowboys had a choice on their hands when they selected #9 overall. High on their board was a player they believed could play tackle for them for the next 10 years at a very high level, Tyron Smith from USC. But, just as high according to at least one source, was a DE from Wisconsin that they felt could fill a real position of need for them in their scheme as a disruptive, all-situations DE in the 3-4, JJ Watt.

Picking that high in the draft is not something that a team wants to do very often, as it is usually the direct result of a disappointing season, but when you do find yourself in the Top 10, it is crucial that decisions like these are made carefully and properly.

Both Smith and Watt were strongly supported with great tape in college and a solid spring pre-draft season where questions would be answered about their abilities. The brass had a choice to make, and the simple discussion of position premiums easily helped make the decision. The chance to have a left tackle who should be elite for years to come was too much to pass on. The Cowboys happily rushed to make the choice. Tyron Smith was a Cowboy and the war-room was thrilled with the result.

It was the right choice. Tackles are so vital to the game of football and the overall protection of the Quarterback. To have one with all of the skills of Tyron Smith seems like a choice that cannot bring regret. His development this season alone is enough to excite any fan of the team, and it seems reasonable to assume that he will be at left tackle by start of business 2012 and remain there for a long, long time.

But, when you are a team that has multiple needs at multiple spots, the choice you make is often at the expense of a number of other spots. If the Cowboys would have taken JJ Watt, they would have also addressed another major need. And frankly, it remains a spot where they simply must get better for the Cowboys to have that defensive front that they so desire. A front that makes plays in the backfield, disrupt plays, and batters opponents.

We are a long way down the road since the false narrative was offered by so many about how "defensive ends don't make plays in the 3-4". This was used to explain the largely anonymous seasons that the Cowboys DE's would turn in after the Cowboys flipped schemes in 2005. The explanation was that the DE is there to simply tie up the OL and stand their ground, 2-gapping and allowing the LBs to run free and make plays.

But, that didn't explain what was going on around the league, where we would watch each post-season and see many 3-4 teams having great success in the playoffs. And each time, it seemed like they had defensive ends that could play in every situation and that could make plays of great importance. This year, Justin Smith and Ray McDonald were substantial forces in San Francisco. JJ Watt and Antonio Smith in Houston were disruptive all year, too. It was just that the Cowboys didn't seem to possess any of that breed.

In the last 4 seasons, only one Cowboys defensive end has played more than 600 snaps in a single season. Given that each season has roughly 1,000 to 1,100 defensive snaps, the fact that only Chris Canty played 677 in 2008, you can see what the Cowboys biggest problem is and was. They just don't have any full-time, any-situation defensive ends.

So, instead, they try to get by with 2 sets of part-timers and patch them together. Marcus Spears would handle the run snaps from RDE this past season, then Jason Hatcher would come on to the field in passing downs at the same spot. On the other side, Kenyon Coleman would start each set of downs, and then Jay Ratliff and Hatcher would be joined by DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer in 3rd Downs scenarios.

What that amounted to was this: Ratliff played 750 snaps, Hatcher 429, Coleman 426, Spears 400, and reserve Sean Lissemore 284. They used a crew of players to patch together different situations and did the best they could. But, from the defensive end position, for another season of many, the Cowboys had no DE's who could do what a full-time DE must do. Stand up well against the run while possessing the ability to beat his man and get to the passer on a pass.

Heading into 2012, that allows us to look at options for the Cowboys in this offseason.

I was asked last week to write about my free agent priority, and I detailed at great length my feelings about Saints guard, Carl Nicks . I think the offensive line could greatly benefit from adding Nicks, and going into free agency, if I am going to break the bank, it has to be for a player who is both young and elite.

But, in discussing the defense, the answer to my free agent priority is more of an outside possibility. Word from Arizona seems to indicate that the target for this defensive end need will never make it to March 13, but if the Cardinals do not get a deal done with Calais Campbell, and do not slap the franchise tag on him, then the Cowboys should pounce.

Let's look at him for a moment:

Calais Campbell - DE
6'8, 310
9/1/86 (Age 25)

At 6'8, 310, Campbell is a rare specimen, but out of college was thought of as lacking both strength and quickness. Neither has proven to be a fair assessment, but the Cardinals were thrilled that he slipped to them in the 2nd round in '08.

Because of the new CBA, we are seeing players getting to free agency from the 2008 draft (those who did not sign 5-year rookie deals) in full force. That means that players who have not signed extensions from the 2nd round on are up for bid in March. Jordy Nelson and Lamarr Woodley are examples of players who have been extended this year, but many have not come to an agreement with their clubs and therefore, WR Desean Jackson and Calais Campbell are two of the premium players who could hit the market.

To see Campbell's skills on full display, pop in the tape of the Cardinals match-up with the Cowboys from early December. Playing over Doug Free and Montrae Holland for most of the day, he terrorized both the run and pass game of the Cowboys by demonstrating quickness that was too much for the Cowboys to handle. He would shoot gaps on pass plays and get to Romo for a sack and several other pressures. Then, we would blow past Free and run down DeMarco Murray before a play could get started in the Cowboys backfield. Darnell Dockett and Campbell make a very formidable DE duo in Arizona, and both had big days as the Cardinals totaled 5 sacks of Romo.

Looking at Campbell's stats will impress you, especially if you compare them to anything you have seen at DE for the Cowboys in years, but I am more impressed from the overall effect of having a DE that causes so much disruption. Before long, he is demanding a double team and freeing up a team-mate for a match-up that can be won. He blocks kicks, bats down passes, never stops running to the ball, and best of all, is only 25 years old.

To prepare for this project, I watched several more of his games this week to see how he performs from week to week. Both 49ers games were more of the same as he competes hard all of the time. In Week 3, he destroyed Russell Okung for 3 sacks in Seattle. He played 1,033 snaps this season and seldom leaves the field. Dockett, his more noted mate, signed a 6-year, $56 million deal in 2010, but is also 30. Together, they show that the 3-4 is run in different ways, but a smart coaching staff tailors the scheme to fit the play-makers. And clearly, the Cardinals love to tailor what they do around Dockett and Campbell.

Again, chances are that he never gets to the open market. But, if the Cardinals mess around and make him open to bidders, I fully believe that the Cowboys would make him a very top priority and make that JJ Watt regret disappear. It isn't likely, but keep that name front and center on your off-season radar.

Jerry at the Senior Bowl

2012-01-24T08:08:00.003-06:00

Cowboys' Owner, General Manager, #1 Fan, and Overall Head Of All Things Jerry Jones was wearing his casual Cowboys gear underneath the stands at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama for the Senior Bowl on Monday, as he spoke to the gathered media and offered his thoughts on many items of general interest.

The quote that will receive the most play will most likely be the part where he seemed to say that the difference between the Giants and Cowboys was Eli Manning. “I don’t want to take anything away, but the big difference was Eli came up here and started what seemed like a pretty significantly...But the quarterback play with Eli was the huge difference. But I was pretty impressed with how they’ve defense played the last three or four ball games...They are a great inspiration and what I hoped that we were going to be and that is a team that had good days and bad days and really took off on a run. They did it and we didn't.”

The truth is, if you can weed through the odd speaking cadence of Jerry that he was not saying anything negative about his own QB, Tony Romo, but rather properly placing credit for the Giants success in this last 2 months in part to the play of their QB. Confusing and dancing on the line of comparing the two and preferring the other team's QB, but in listening several times to his quotes, I don't believe it would be fair to say that he drove a bus over his own QB.

And, I do believe, as we sit here and ponder the idea of Eli Manning at his 2nd Super Bowl as Romo has never been past the quarterfinals, that QB is the least of the items that separate the Cowboys and the Giants. Just 3 weeks ago, these two teams were dead even heading into the 16th and final game of the season. Now, depending on perspective, there are some that position the Giants as miles and miles better than the Dallas Cowboys. If that is true, than it is also true that the Cowboys were one 3rd Down completion to Miles Austin in Week 14 from eliminating these same Giants from playoff contention altogether. And missing the playoffs is a long, long way from the Super Bowl - just ask the Cowboys.

But, as we do sort through what Jerry said yesterday in nearly 25 minutes of holding court with the media on pins and needles, I did see several other things that will generate fewer headlines but strikes me as more relevant to the big picture. Let's review those:

On the Defensive Backfield: "over in the secondary, I do think we will get better. We very likely will have new faces back there. How many, I can't tell you, but we will have new faces."

This one might be straight from the department of the obvious. It will be a priority to sort out the secondary in the offseason, and it appears that 3 of the top 5 are guaranteed to be back due to the recent contract extensions to Gerald Sensabaugh and Orlando Scandrick and the continued development of Mike Jenkins. That seems to pretty clearly put a target on Terence Newman and Abram Elam. Elam is a UFA who will be looking for multiple years, and I was a bit surprised that Sensabaugh was the safety to get the extension instead of Elam, but I suppose the team was using age as their guide. Sensabaugh is 28 and Elam is 30. The idea that the Cowboys could do better in the secondary is pretty clear, but the big question is how much of the available assets to use this spring on addressing another part of the roster that is on the perimeter of the game. If you have been reading my material for very long, you know that my feelings are clear about building from the inside-out. The game is won and lost at the line, and the Giants have a comparable secondary to Dallas, but an incomparable defensive line. Which brings us to his next comment:

On the Defensive Line: We had a couple young guys play pretty well there. Our defensive front is one of the strengths of our team. We know Baltimore is a team which we can look to and say that is what we would like to be

This one is where I spit coffee on my screen. The defensive front is one of the strengths of the team? I would like to respectfully and wholeheartedly disagree. The front is not anywhere close to a strength. If it was, then Eli Manning wouldn't have been able to come into your stadium and throw 50 times without having anyone lay a hand on him. We all saw that San Francisco hit Eli Manning repeatedly, thus keeping his ability to slice and dice them to a minimum. We saw the Giants front batter Tony Romo in Week 17 to the tune of 6 sacks and an almost comical level of chaos in his lap. We saw the Patriots blow up play after play with Vince WIlfork and friends destroying the line of the Ravens when they dared to run the ball. But, no, we never saw the Cowboys front do anything of the sort. And, if we are looking at Baltimore, then we better find that 350-pound nose tackle, like the Ravens have been basing their 3-4 around with Haloti Ngata. Start there, with a NT that demands a double-team (like Wilfork, Casey Hampton, BJ Raji) and then you can have linebackers blowing up plays from inside. Otherwise, you can watch the Ravens but you cannot duplicate them.

On the Offensive Line: "Possibly, in personnel, we may have gotten a little over zealous with some young players in the middle of our offensive line. We need to give them a chance to grow and have progress, and have the kind of protection that we want."

And finally, a quote that concedes the August idea of shedding veterans Andre Gurode and Montrae Holland in exchange for Phil Costa and Bill Nagy to start without ever winning the job was a horrendous idea. Not that Gurode or Holland were great players or that they should have been upgraded when the chance came along. But, moving Leonard Davis and Marc Colombo out was going to be a big enough mountain, why self-inflict even more issues with these cost-cutting measures. Was it a financial move or a football move? Tough to say since the owner and the general manager are the same guy. But, either way, it was obvious by Week 3 that it was a disaster, and then Tony Romo had to run for his life for much of the rest of the season. By December, opponents were running stunts and blitzes right at the young interior because they knew the results were unpleasant for the Cowboys' offense. Jerry learned a valuable lesson here, but you would think that by his 22nd year in power, he would have known that starting two unregarded kids in the middle of your offensive line was a crazy idea that better work. It didn't come close to working and they are lucky that it didn't cost them more than it did.

Now, the Senior Bowl is on the minds of the Cowboys' leader. Before long, the Combine and Free Agency will arrive. The moves that need to be made are right there to be seen. Let's hope he reads the evidence and comes to the proper conclusions.

But, sometimes, when he speaks, it makes you wonder.

An Unforgettable Championship Sunday

2012-01-23T07:43:00.003-06:00

Other sports can not compete with Sunday. The NFL is the top product in sports for a number of reasons, and we had many of them detailed to us over the course of 8 riveting hours of tense, painful, and high-stakes competition.

In the end, it seemed that two teams advanced by simply surviving. All four teams accomplished many of their laid-out objectives and felt like they put themselves in a perfect position to win late in the game. But, only two would advance to play for the Lombardi Trophy in 2 weeks time. And how those games played out were enough to have each dropped into the "instant classic" bin immediately.

The AFC Championship Game was a battle of strengths as the Patriots offense would have to deal with the Ravens defense. But, the game was so much more than Tom Brady versus Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. New England was a favorite, but because of some sloppy play at times (from Brady, no less), the Patriots ended up allowing the Ravens a +2 turnover margin. In the NFL this season, that 2 turnover margin has been given 107 times, and the record for those on the short end of the stick have gone 10-97 (9% win percentage).

The Ravens caused stops, misses downfield, and even the occasional takeaway. Allowing Joe Flacco and the offense to carve out some offense of their own over the course of the 4 Quarters. Back and forth this hard hitting battle went, and the closer the end came, the closer the two teams were on the scoreboard. Neither side was giving in. And that is what makes this theater so interesting to the viewer. Veterans who may never get this far again, selling out on the field and trying to make the difference for their side.

And what happens when all of those collective contributions are cancelled out on the other side of the field? That is we see an entire season that begins in July boils down to one play in late January. And with all of the stars playing in the game on each side, we also see that the key players in the game are not the players at the forefront of your memory when you look back at this contest.

The Ravens caused a 3-and-out late from the Patriots offense when Ed Reed broke up a 3rd Down pass, and now the Ravens were going to get the ball back one last time with under 2 minutes to go. Trailing 23-20, they would be able to go to the Super Bowl with a touchdown, or settle this in overtime with a field goal.

And this is where Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and the rest of the Patriots offense would go sit down. As would the Ravens defense of Reed, Lewis, and friends. This game would be settled by none of them. They had done what they could to impact the game and now they would spend the rest of the afternoon as spectators.

Those who would decide this game included Flacco, a player who most felt did not have the quality to win a game like this - including some of his teammates. But, throughout the day, he looked poised and ready to make a play when needed. He missed on a few throws that would have been huge gainers to his speedster, Torrey Smith, but managed the game quite well.

On this final drive, the Ravens went to work on Julian Edelman, the Patriots 2-way player (according to ProFootballFocus.com, he played 28 snaps on offense, 27 on defense Sunday), who was trying to cover Anquan Boldin in the slot with very little success. 5 times Flacco went to Boldin - 4 times with Edelman lined up to cover him - for a total of 4 catches for 60 yards in this drive. The Ravens were marching and in position at the 14 yard-line to have at least 2 shots at the end zone before settling for overtime with a chip-shot field goal.

And that is where the play of the game would occur. Lee Evans, who had 4 receptions all year after a 7 productive years in Buffalo, would be lined up in man coverage alone on the right side of the formation, opposite Smith and Boldin on the left. Boldin had Edelman again, so the Patriots were rolling all of their coverage in that direction. The Ravens had the perfect scenario lined up with Evans against Sterling Moore.

Moore, who played his college football for SMU, was undrafted last spring. In July he was signed by the Raiders, but after failing to make their squad out of camp was pushed to their practice squad. Then, 3 weeks later, the Raiders cut him off the practice squad. From September 26th to October 5th, Moore was unemployed, and perhaps pondering a life that did not include football. But, on October 5th, the Patriots called and placed him on their practice squad. Due to injuries and circumstances, Moore was promoted to the roster for the Week 10 game against the Jets and played in 5 regular season games - 3 as a safety, 2 as a corner. So, with a Wide Receiver playing defense against Boldin, here is this unregarded SMU Mustang covering Evans with the Super Bowl hanging in the balance.

On the snap, Flacco makes no mistake where he is going with the ball. He locks on Evans, throws a huge shoulder fake, and then waits for Evans to clear Moore for the back shoulder fade in the end zone. It works perfectly and when the ball falls in Evans arms, Moore is face guarding him - with really no idea where the ball is. Evans catches the ball and appears to have just caught the winning score, when Moore in desperation swipes at the ball. Somehow, Evans seems to have relaxed his grip a bit and Moore is able to get the ball free. Incomplete pass.

3rd Down is a protection breakdown as a 3-man rush cause Flacco to turn away from Boldin vs Edelman and he finally offers a desperation throw to his tight end, Dennis Pitta, that falls incomplete as Sterling Moore again bats the ball away.

4th and 1 from the 14. For reasons that seem unclear, Baltimore had trouble getting the FG team on in a timely manner. By the time they are set up, the play clock is down to inside 10 seconds. Baltimore has a timeout, but perhaps recalling the moment Dallas had this season, John Harbaugh does not call a timeout and risk "icing his own kicker". This causes a rushed snap, a hold that does not get the laces right, and a hooked kick by former Cowboy (2002-2005), Billy Cundiff. It was a gutting end to a valiant effort from the Ravens, and for New England, a fortuitous ending that will put them in yet another Super Bowl.

Meanwhile, over 2,600 miles away another classic was about to happen. This one involving the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of some wonderful playoff games 2 decades ago.

Much like the earlier battle, the largest lead would be only 7 points, and the battle would be intense all afternoon long.

For much of the day, we thought the hero might be Vernon Davis. Davis continued to be a player who can only be stopped by his own decisions as his two touchdowns were somewhat mitigated by his two personal fouls. He is simply too talented to cover as a tight end, too fast for linebackers or safeties, too strong for cornerbacks.

If not Davis, then surely it would be Eli Manning again. Manning took a tremendous beating, being sacked 6 times and hit at least 20 times in all. The 49ers pass rush started slow, but by the 2nd half, Eli seemed to take a shot almost every time he threw the ball. It demonstrated yet again that Manning has grown into one of the more clutch QBs in the sport, despite many of us refusing to place him in that class. The facts are that his 4th Quarter performances are top notch, his 3rd Down throws are as good as anyones, and now he has won a 5th road playoff game - someone nobody in the NFL has ever done. That final statistic is a bit dubious, as many of the greats seldom find themselves on the road as often as Eli in the playoffs (given that they win higher seeds), but nevertheless, the playoff road game is one of the most difficult things to do in the NFL for a QB, and Manning has now done it 5 times.

But, despite many huge throws in tight spots, this game was likely not decided by either QB. Although, Manning threw the ball 58 times and Alex Smith only completed 12 passes all day. The Giants took 90 snaps to the 49ers 57, but in the end, yardage was close enough, 352-328, New York.

No, this game, like the game before it, would be settled by unlikely characters. Kyle Williams, a 6th round pick in the 2010 draft from Arizona State, is the son of Chicago White Sox General Manager, Kenny Williams. He is a young WR, who appears to have some value, but yesterday was asked to return punts as the normal return man, Ted Ginn, Jr, was unable to play due to injury.

Williams had returned just 5 punts as a pro in 2 seasons, but yesterday was asked to field 8 punts in rather wet, high pressure situations. The first sign that trouble might be ahead was with 13:30 left in the 3Q, where Williams made a very risky decision to dive to catch a punt as pressure was bearing down, rather than the percentage play of getting away from the ball and letting it bounce. He fielded it as the stadium gasped, and no damage was done.

But, in the 4th Quarter with a 14-10 lead, Williams would not be as fortunate. A punt with 11:15 to play landed 10 yards in front of him, but then rolled at him as he casually moved stepped towards the ball. The ball takes odd bounces, and this time it brushed his leg ever so slightly, putting the ball into play as Giants gunner, Devin Thomas alertly grabbed the ball. In another era with no instant replay, this play would have stayed with the 49ers. But, with replay, it was properly discovered that the Giants just found field position that they did not have to travel with their offense. A possession that started inside the 49ers 30-yard line was eventually cashed in for a go-ahead touchdown when Eli found Mario Manningham for a 17-14 Giants lead. It was the first turnover of the game.

The 49ers would tie the game, aided by a big Williams return, and send it into overtime at 17-17. But, again, this amazing Sunday would frown on young Kyle Williams. A punt with 9:40 left in overtime was fumbled again by Williams as rookie Jacquian Williams for New York would strip him and Devin Thomas would recover again at the 49ers 24. Amazing.

A few moments later, Lawrence Tynes would do what Billy Cundiff couldn't do, which was to nail a chip shot on the road, and the Giants would also punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.

Even the biggest football experts would not have placed Sterling Moore and Kyle Williams in the headlines as the day started. Nor, Lee Evans and Devin Thomas. But, the hands of fate put them all front and center as the NFL's Championship Sunday paid off with drama that will not soon be forgotten.

And now, it is the Giants and Patriots, back together again in the Super Bowl. And we have 13 days to wait to see if this tournament
can captivate us one more time.

Amazing theater from the National Football League. I only regret it is about to go away for 7 months.

The NFC Merry-Go-Round - and Picks

2012-01-19T20:59:00.003-06:00

The post-free agency era of the NFL has given us a tale of two conferences when it comes to championship games and Super Bowl appearances. 1993 signaled the first real phase of free agency around the league where players could easily change teams when their contracts expired. If you allow for a few years for market corrections and the effects to take hold, many have blamed free agency with slowly ending the Dallas Cowboys dynasty of the 1990's, and ushering in an era of parity around the league.

The two conferences, though, appear to have gone in drastically different directions for parity since that time.

In the AFC, since Dallas and Pittsburgh met in Super Bowl XXX to conclude the 1995 season, there have been 15 Super Bowls played and the AFC has been represented by only 7 different teams (43% of the conference). New England has gone 5 times, Pittsburgh has added 3 more, the Colts and Broncos have gone twice, and the Titans, Ravens, and Raiders have all gone once each.

This is in stark contrast to the NFC, where in 15 Super Bowls since the Cowboys have last attended, there have been 11 different NFC teams (69% of the conference), with only one team, Green Bay having gone more than twice (3). Beyond that, the Giants have gone twice, the Rams went twice, and 8 other clubs have gone once each - The Falcons, Buccaneers, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, and Saints.

But, it gets even more shocking when you zoom in a bit on the results since the year 2000, when free agency had totally cycled through the NFL feeding system for nearly an entire decade.

Since then, in the AFC, only 9 teams have played in the AFC Championship game and just 5 have gone to a Super Bowl since the 2000 season. Basically, the last dozen seasons in the AFC have been about 3 teams dominance, the Patriots, the Steelers, and the Colts.

Meanwhile, in the NFC, 13 different teams have played in a NFC Championship game in the last decade. 13 of 16 teams accounts for 81% of the teams in the entire conference and has put almost every single team within 60 minutes of a Super Bowl in the last 10 seasons. Only Detroit, Washington, and Dallas have not played in a NFC Championship game since the turn of the millennium. It is almost impossible to ponder.

And here is the most staggering number of all. If the San Francisco 49ers win on Sunday afternoon, that will put 11 different NFC teams in the Super Bowl in the last 11 years! Starting with St Louis in the 2001 season, the NFC has sent in order, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Philadelphia, Seattle, Chicago, New York, Arizona, New Orleans, and Green Bay.

Pending a 49ers win this weekend, the only teams in the NFC to have not been represented in the Super Bowl since Bill Clinton left the White House are the Lions, Redskins, Cowboys, Vikings, and Falcons.

The odds of 11 different teams representing the NFC in 11 years are monstrous. And yet, it is difficult to draw any conclusions due to the fact that the AFC has not dealt with this parity or mediocrity. Once again, this year, the AFC will have a match-up of two teams that have 7 AFC Championship Games in this decade. While the 49ers are headed to their first NFC Championship Game since 1998.

Are the franchise QBs of the AFC that far superior to anything the NFC has thrown out there? Is the AFC simply top heavy and therefore the depth of the conference makes it easier for the better teams to return to the late rounds of the playoffs again and again? Or, does the NFC just not have any teams that separate themselves from the competition? Since 2000, only Philadelphia (5 times) and New York (3) have been to more than two conference title games.

Regardless, it is an interesting study in parity. It does exist. The teams are closer together than ever before, however, to suggest it is random and even would be to ignore the Steelers and Patriots, in particular.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys, whose 14 NFC Championship Game appearances lead the conference still (SF will play in #13 this weekend), now face a drought from this weekend that is only surpassed by Washington and Detroit who played each other in 1991 at RFK Stadium, and have not returned.

==========

Here are my picks for the weekend's conference title games:

Baltimore at New England: This looks to be an excellent matchup of the strengths as the Patriots offense takes on the Ravens defense. Certainly, the Ravens will not be over-run, but the environment that they walk into will be one where the New England offense looks unstoppable. There was a time, earlier in the season, where the Patriots were beatable at home, but as the season has gone on, it is back to believing that a team would need to approach 30-35 points if they are to take down Tom Brady. And that is what Baltimore will have to deal with. They figured it out in January of 2010 in Foxboro, but I have a hard time believing this Ravens offense, which struggled for large swaths of the game against Houston last week, will be able to go score for score with New England. Further, Ed Reed is gimpy, and Joe Flacco's numbers on the road are extremely pedestrian. One hopes for an exciting game, but when you consider a number of elements, I arrive at a game which I think is in full control in the 4th Quarter. Patriots win this one and return to the Super Bowl, in Indianapolis of all places. Patriots 28, Ravens 17

New York at San Francisco: I am quite excited about this battle. One thing that has made both teams successful this season has been their play along the line of scrimmage. But, now, they play each other, which most believe will be each team's best attribute squaring off. Will NY's Defensive line be able to bully the sizable OL from San Francisco? I don't believe so. Will NY be able to run on the San Francisco front? I doubt it. Also, will Eli Manning have all day, like he did in Green Bay, to wait for openings in the secondary? The key for San Francisco will be to figure out how to get off the field on those 3rd Down situations where Eli has been so good recently. Also, there is obviously a question about how Vernon Davis will be covered (hopefully, the Saints taught New York that man-to-man isn't really an option) and an even bigger question about Alex Smith continuing his play that is defying most of his critics. My pick in this game is quite difficult and certainly doesn't hold a ton of confidence, but I am going to believe that the 49ers will be able to run the ball a bit and the belief that the Candlestick crowd will get them over the top. This should be a classic bloodbath starring Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Justin Tuck, and Jason Pierre-Paul, and a can't miss afternoon of football. 49ers 24, Giants 21

Enjoy it while you can. Football season is almost over.

Free Agent Target: Carl Nicks

2012-01-18T08:08:00.004-06:00

As we move into the offseason, it is time to get serious about the ways to improve the Dallas Cowboys roster. Contrary to popular belief, the Cowboys have not been major players in free agency in a number of years. We would define that by looking at the players and prices in which they get involved on the early days of free agency where the dollars are the highest and auctions can break out. This can get very expensive and very dangerous to make mistakes. A quick look at page 225 of the Dallas Cowboys 2011 Media Guide confirms that the big spending the Cowboys have done in the last 5 seasons has been mainly on their own players before they hit free agency:

2007:
Leonard Davis - 3/4/2007 signed a 7-year, $49m contract
Ken Hamlin - 3/24/2007 signed a 1-year, $2.5m contract

2008:
None

2009:
Keith Brooking - 2/28/2009 signed a 3-year, $6m contract
Igor Olshansky - 3/6/2009 signed a 4-year, $18m contract
Gerald Sensabaugh - 3/9/2009 signed a 1-year, $1.75m contract

2010:
None

2011:
Kenyon Coleman - 7/30/2011 signed a 2-year, $3.75m contract
Abram Elam - 8/3/2011 signed a 1-year, $2.5m contract

This demonstrates that Leonard Davis was the last of the big ticket items (with all due respect to the Igor Olshansky deal that was more of a "paper" contract that would never come close to the value in the headlines). Davis was obviously cut early, too, but he did see a large sum of his money.

So, five years since the last bold strike in free agency lends credence to the idea that Jerry Jones is not the free-wheeling spender he once was, or if he still is, he has been using most of his petty cash on the new stadium construction and re-signing his own players.

Nevertheless, this season, we see that the Cowboys appear eager to strike in free agency. With about $17m in cap space, and the ability to create much more room with restructures and future releases of players under contract, they have to deal with their own free agents (Anthony Spencer, Laurent Robinson, Mat McBriar), their rookie draft class, and then they can also dip into free agency for a bold strike or two.

Which leads us to this week's project. If you read my thoughts for very long, you will soon realize that I am one of many that believe the game of football is always won at the line of scrimmage. And while the Cowboys focus seems to often be on players on the perimeter of the game (WR, RB, DB) and building from the outside-in, I think you will see that many successful teams build from the inside-out.

So, when I am proposing ideas or looking at players in the draft or free agency, I will give some thought to your defensive back idea, but I will then attempt to twist your arm and look at the offensive line and the defensive line. And with the success of teams that stress that sort of building in the post-season having success this month (Houston, New York, San Francisco, Baltimore), perhaps that is something worth considering.

Which leads us to what is reportedly the apple of the Cowboys' eye right now, Carl Nicks, OG for the New Orleans Saints.

Carl Nicks - OG
5/14/85 (age 26)
6'5, 343
Nebraska

Nicks is a very impressive force who has started from Week 4 in 2008 for the Saints. Since that time, he has been rated no lower than the Top 5 guards in the NFL. In fact, if you start grading him from 2009 to 2011, you will see that he is among the top 2 or 3 on any given ranking by personnel people around the league. He is flat-out quality and a mauler inside.

Unlike Leonard Davis, the last time the Cowboys dipped into the free agent pool, he is not going to be converted from tackle back to a guard, and he isn't 29 years old. He has only played guard and he is very good at it. He is also just entering his prime, and you can feel great about a major investment in him.

Looking back at his 2011, Nicks was an anchor in one of the most prolific offenses in football history and a chief reason why the Saints ran the ball with ease. According to ProFootballFocus.com, he was on the field for an insane 1348 snaps this season (Doug Free led the Cowboys OL with 1080) and pass blocked on 844 occasions for Drew Brees. He gave up 2 sacks all season. In Week 3, Texans DE Antonio Smith worked around his shoulder for a sack in space where Nicks didn't move his feet enough against an impressive interior pass rusher. And in Week 14 at Tennessee, rookie Karl Klug finally worked past Nicks when Brees held the ball for 4.8 seconds. Other than that, there were almost no occasions where Brees was hit because of Carl Nicks.

As a run blocker, he is above-average and has great quickness to get to the Linebackers on the 2nd level. The Saints don't ask him to pull in space too much, but his angle blocking is apparent. This past weekend, against the 3-4 of San Francisco, you can see him fire up the field and lock down Patrick Willis on several inside run plays. In the pass game, he has his hands full with an elite matchup against Justin Smith of the 49ers, and won more than his share of battles. Smith has great strength and while he pushed Nicks around a bit, but not enough to cause too much trouble.

Maybe the most impressive attribute that Nicks has that is not talked about is the ability to switch off and deal with stunts and blitzes with no difficulty whatsoever. There were a few occasions where he dealt with multiple rushers trying to work a seam on either side of him, and there was no daylight as Nicks would block one and then get a piece of the other in the blink of an eye.

This will be a very expensive signing and it won't come with glamour and huge headlines in places where fantasy football and jersey sales are important. But, in the film room where a team has dealt with a below average offensive line for several years in a row, this would signal a major upgrade at a spot where the Cowboys could now afford to get by with average center play because the guards next to him would be able to cover that up. There will not be as many days where the Cowboys are trying to game plan around a weak OL. Instead, like Brees, Romo can stand back and comfortably look for a target. If the Cowboys started a Phil Costa or Bill Nagy at center next season, but had Carl Nicks to the left and Kyle Kosier to the right, they would be far better equipped to deal with the Giants or Eagles than they were this season.

Having watched him closely this week in several games, and noting the Bill Callahan-Nebraska connection, as well as the Cowboys' interest, I would absolutely endorse a signing of Nicks when free agency opens. It will be very expensive, as his team-mate in New Orleans, RG Jahri Evans signed a 7-year, $56.7m deal in May of 2010. That seems to be the rough estimate of Nicks' price, but it would also settle things for the Cowboys at a major position of need.

Then, if Tyron Smith moves to LT, and Free back to RT, Nicks will solidify things and offer you a major improvement inside. Also, keep in mind that Nicks has been present and accounted for each Sunday along the way. He appears to be a pretty special player and should be target #1 in this offseason.

The defense needs help all over, and there will still be some money and a full draft to address that, but I think this is a very worthy ambition for the Cowboys front office.

Dez Bryant News Archive - Updated Again

2012-01-17T21:09:00.005-06:00

Primarily for my personal use, I am have compiled a Dez Bryant news archive so that I can remember everything. I am sure not all of this is his fault (or is even newsworthy), but wow he can keep the media busy.

I am attempting to keep this news archive to merely stories that are not directly related to catching the football stories.

Feel free to remind me what I have missed, and I will add them if you email or comment a link.

October 7, 2009 - Dez Bryant in big trouble at Oklahoma State

February 28, 2010 - Bryant is always late for practice and a risky pick

March 30, 2010 - Bryant runs, posts slow times at personal workouts - forgets shoes

April 23, 2010 - Bryant has an irregular heartbeat

April 28, 2010 - Jeff Ireland asks Dez if his mother as a prostitute...then apologizes

May 1, 2010 - Dez is winded and puking at rookie mini-camp

May 3, 2010 - Angela Bryant wants apology, but also has some new law problems

May 19, 2010 - Dez Bryant is wearing Nike after signing 2 year deal with Under Armour 3 months ago

May 27, 2010 - Bryant misses mini camp practice....and then...

May 27, 2010 - Dunks on people that night at basketball game

July 22, 2010 - Dez Bryant and Cowboys agree to a 5-year contract

July 24, 2010 - Dez tells David Moore that Roy Williams and Bryant will not be pitted against eachother

July 25, 2010 - Dez Bryant refuses to carry Roy Williams shoulder pads

July 26, 2010 - Under Armour and Dez break up

September 28, 2010 - Dez Bryant pays $54,000 for a team dinner

November 16, 2010 - Dez Bryant loses his earring in the New Meadowlands and has it found by a security guard

December 6, 2010 - Bryant refuses to talk to reporters, prompting Jerry to say Dez needs to mature

March 22, 2011 - Dez gets kicked out of NorthPark Mall for wearing his pants too low

March 25, 2011 - Deion says he's separated himself from Dez

March 28, 2011 - Two parties come forward to sue Bryant over his debts for jewlery and tickets

May 2, 2011 - Dez Doesn't show at facility when almost everyone else does

June 6, 2011 - Despite his claims, Dez still owes money to jewelers

July 15, 2011 - Dez Bryant no shows for a card show that he was paid for

July 30, 2011 - Bryant started off on the wrong foot. He was late to the first team meeting of training camp.

August 2, 2011 - Dez proud of maturing and having a quiet camp

August 22, 2011 - Dez gets in a fight near the locker room with his girlfriend

October 4, 2011 - Dez dissed by Jim Schwartz of Detroit

October 13, 2011 - Dez misses preseason drug test, is cleared

October 21, 2011 - Romo defends Dez not getting the ball in 2nd half

October 21, 2011 - At 2-3, Dez proclaims the Cowboys "unbeatable"

November 4, 2011 - Dez not interested in changing his sideline demeanor after rants in Philadelphia

November 11, 2011 - Jerry calls drafting of Bryant "frustrating and elating" and exactly what he expected

November 13, 2011 - Dez thinks the Cowboys have best WR group in the NFL

December 26, 2011 - Dez hires Rosenhaus, breaks up with Eugene Parker

December 29, 2011 - Stephen Jones would like Dez to “get his hands around what he’s doing off the field.”

December 30, 2011 - Jerry makes sure Dez' latest lawsuit is paid up in full

January 17, 2012 - Dez involved in physical altercation and detained by police at Club LIV in Miami

Home Field Stuff

2012-01-16T15:18:00.008-06:00

Over the course of many years, I keep a data-base for various trends in the NFL game. This morning, let's update two of the most interesting, Home Field Advantage, Seeding, and the Turnover Battles:

Home Field Advantage and Seeding:

The table you will see below is a simple tracking of seeding and home field advantage in the NFL playoffs since the field was expanded to 6 teams per conference in the 1990 season.

As you might notice, the 2011 column only represents 8 of the 10 games that are played before the Super Bowl (since the final 2 games have yet to be played). In that 22 seasons, the best year for home teams was 8-2. This season, if New England and San Francisco both win on Sunday, that would put the home teams at an all-time high 9-1, which I suppose would suggest that home field means something again. But, given that in 2010, the home teams were 4-6 in the playoffs, that would likely be a rush to judgement and a knee jerk reaction we should resist.

What makes that 9-1 home record all the more remarkable would be that the lone loss would be 15-1 Green Bay losing at home as the #1 seed in the NFC. A quick scan of the NFC side of the table below will reveal that the #1 seed of the NFC Playoffs played in the NFC Championship Game every year from 1990-2006. But, in 2007, when the Cowboys lost in their 1st playoff game, the #1 seed started trending in the wrong direction. Since then, the 2008 Giants, 2010 Falcons, and 2011 Packers have all gone one-and-done.

Year	Home Record	AFC Seeds	NFC Seeds
1990	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1991	8-2	1* vs 2	1* vs 2
1992	5-5	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1993	8-2	1* vs 3	1* vs 2
1994	8-2	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
1995	7-3	2* vs 5	1* vs 3
1996	8-2	2* vs 5	1* vs 2
1997	6-4	2 vs 4*	1 vs 2*
1998	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
1999	7-3	1 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2000	8-2	2 vs 4*	1* vs 2
2001	7-3	1 vs 2*	1* vs 3
2002	8-2	1* vs 2	1 vs 2*
2003	6-4	1* vs 3	1 vs 3*
2004	6-4	1 vs 2*	1* vs 2
2005	4-6	2 vs 6*	1* vs 5
2006	8-2	3* vs 4	1* vs 2
2007	5-5	1* vs 3	2 vs 5*
2008	5-5	2* vs 6	4* vs 6
2009	7-3	1* vs 5	1* vs 2
2010	4-6	2* vs 6	2 vs 6*
2011	7-1	1 vs 2	2 vs 4

Table Tutorial

(* = Super Bowl Team)

The other thing that is extra fascinating about tracking these numbers since the format change is that the Super Bowl representatives have also opened up quite a bit in the last handful of years. Between 1990 and 2004, there were no #5 or #6 seeds to play in a Super Bowl - let alone to win one.

Since then, it seems like anything is possible if you simply "make the tournament". Get in and if you can play the hot hand, you can go all the way. It started with the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, who were the #6 seed in a crazy year where 11-5 was the last spot to make the playoffs. They won 3 straight road games at Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver and won the Super Bowl over Seattle in Detroit at Ford Field.

In 2007, we all remember the #5 seed New York Giants, who finished at 10-6, caught fire with wins against Tampa, Dallas, and Green Bay and go on a run all the way to Glendale, Arizona to defeat the 18-0 Patriots in Super Bowl 42.

And in 2010, the #6 seed Green Bay Packers (10-6) barely scraped into the playoffs before getting on a huge roll and winning games in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago, before edging Pittsburgh in Super Bowl 45 in Arlington.

So, it only makes sense that the same Packers squad would get the #1 seed and home field throughout and then see their title defense end in less than 3 hours to a team that finished the season 9-7. Of course it does.

One other item that is interesting to track is the cumulative record for the home team during this 22-year study. 148-70 (67.8%) is the overall home record during the stretch, but you see the decline over 5 year increments that would seem to coincide with free agency and further NFL parity. By 2005, home field had almost no bearing at all:

1990-1994: 37-13 - 74%
1995-1999: 36-14 - 72%
2000-2004: 35-15 - 70%
2005-2009: 29-21 - 58%
2010-2011: 11-7 - 61% (only 1 complete year)
Totals: 148-70 68%

You would still always prefer to have a home game when everything is on the line, but the league is so close that the opportunity for the visitor to win a big game is as good as it has ever been.

Turnover Battle:

Despite the innovations of the NFL game over the year, there is nothing more constant than the impact of the turnover. It is staggering and reliable that the turnover - even one - impacts the game more than any statistic on the face of the earth.

Every year, the rate of winners of the turnover battle also winning the game hit at 78.4%. Now remember, this number has no relation to home field, point spreads, health, caliber of QBs, or anything. Put Team A against Team B - makes no difference which is which, and see that the winner of the turnover battle, even if it is only by a +1 margin, will win around 4 of every 5 games.

So how does this affect the playoffs? Since 1990, the winner of the turnover battle has a record of 171-33 in the playoffs. This winning percentage is even higher, hitting at 83.8! The results are far more convincing than home field advantage or favorite or anything.

Here is that 22-year trend by 5 year blocks:

1990-1994: 43-4 - 85%
1995-1999: 38-8 - 83%
2000-2004: 41-7 - 85%
2005-2009: 39-9 - 81%
2010-2011: 10-5 - 67% (only 1 complete year)
Totals 171-33 - 84%

You can certainly see that last year in particular was a crazy playoff, where 4 teams won games where they lost the turnover battle, but that is an extreme rarity.

This past weekend, New York was a +3, Baltimore a +4, and San Francisco a +4. Denver actually won the turnover battle with New England, but that cannot erase 6 Tom Brady touchdowns. In the wildcard round, there was only one game with a turnover differential, and that was Houston at a +3 over the Bengals.

So, next time you hear about key stats, just recall that sometimes we over-complicate matters. The NFL has changed, but it still comes back to giveaways and takeaways. 84% of the time, that shows you the winner. A trend that is almost certain to be unmatched.

Credit to Eli Manning

2012-01-16T08:01:00.006-06:00

Being both a big mouth and a football-obsessed member of the media for 18 years, I have spent a fair amount of time trying to figure things out in the NFL. Over 3,100 episodes of the Bob and Dan show since 1999 on Sportsradio 1310 the Ticket on Dallas airwaves at 3 hours per show has put us dangerously close to the Malcolm Gladwell "10,000" hour rule. That rule argues "that the key to success in any field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours."

And yet, as I reread Gladwell's thoughts on the 10,000 hour rule, it does not profess to offer perfection after 10,000 hours. A pianist will not reach that milestone and suddenly never play a wrong note. A basketball player or golfer will not make every shot just because they have put in the experience. And to that truth, I breathed a sigh of relief.

Because after writing thousands of football blogs and bantering on and on about the sport for almost two decades, it is clear that I am now prepared to look a major mistake right in the eyes. After talking about Eli Manning for years and years, I am more that prepared to take it all back and admit I had it completely and utterly wrong.

You see, I have been skeptical of his work since Ole Miss, when he arrived on the scene as this prodigy who can't miss. Why? Because he is the son of a NFL Quarterback and the brother of maybe the best QB of our generation. And that is what bothered me. I would watch him play in college (in particular, a home and home series with Texas Tech in '02 and '03) and would begin to assemble a theory that most of the media was looking at his family lineage a lot closer than his actual play.

I saw problems with his judgement, his throws were sometimes off the back foot, his composure was hit-or-miss, and it just seemed lazy for media types to look at his last name and not look at his tape. I wasn't going to make that mistake, I thought. I will watch more tape and try to imagine him without that last name. What would I think of Eli Manning if his name was Scott Smith? I would think that he was a decent QB, but not destined for NFL greatness.

On draft day, 2004, Eli and his father decided to dictate terms to the NFL when it came to drafting him. San Diego had the top pick in the draft, and in the NFL, it takes a lot of nerve to think you can tell a franchise that you aren't going to play there. It delivers a message of ego and narcissism that usually doesn't exist in a kid right out of college, but the Mannings did not appear short on nerve. Somehow, playing in San Diego seemed to not meet with their hopes, and instead, with some help, they brokered a deal to where Eli could land in the biggest media market on the planet, New York.

Looking back, that surely affected my judgement. He was going to dictate terms to the NFL? Again, if he was Scott Smith, this would never work, I thought. This is more catering to his last name. And he wanted to go play for them? The Giants? Surely, my judgement was also affected by this kid wanting to force his way to a NFC rival that already thinks they are deserving of whatever advantages they may receive from their geographical location and self-assigned significance on the NFL landscape.

His career began in New York and his numbers were brutal. In his first few years, his production was far more reminiscent of Quincy Carter than any superstars who go #1 overall and tell San Diego to take a hike. Yet, he was being lavished with riches and adoration from New York and celebrated as NFL royalty. All the way through the end of his 4th season, his completion percentage was always in the mid-50s (mediocre) and his QB rating was always in the mid 70s (worse than mediocre). 4 years and 55 starts into his career, I had seen enough to feel like I hit this one out of the park. He was an average QB and New York and the NFL was fooled by his last name. If only they had done the Scott Smith test, like I did.

I clearly remember the start of the 2007 playoffs. New York was at Tampa Bay, and most were of the feeling that the Giants would be one and done. They beat Tampa, and Eli looked good. But, surely, that wouldn't last. The next week, they were coming here, to play the Dallas Cowboys and the 13-3 juggernaut with their "elite QB" Tony Romo. Romo, seemed to be the polar opposite of Manning. He was undrafted and yet had numbers that dazzled. QB rating was up their with Eli's big brother, Peyton. He wasn't anointed on draft day as the 2nd coming. Romo worked for everything that he had earned. Eli was presented everything on a comfortable pillow.

And then, the game revealed that Eli was ready to win this game. Throw after throw was made and 3rd downs were converted. Eli was no "bus driver". On that day, he out-dueled Romo and shocked the NFL with a knockout of a #1 seed. It was the first time that my opinion was rocked. The very next week, he made more big throws and never threw the big interception at Lambeau Field. He delivered on a stage where Brett Favre was sure to have a date with destiny in Super Bowl 42. But, Eli took that date and cancelled it. Not by himself, but again, like with his beating of Romo, he clearly offered the edge at QB play. His defense and running game did the rest, but Eli was no passenger.

Super Bowl 42 was a thing of beauty. Again, the Giants were a big underdog and were not a hot team at all when the playoffs hit. They finished the year 4-4 and were thought of as a nice easy playoff opponent. But after he made big throws in the 2nd half of that Super Bowl against the 18-0 Patriots, nobody doubted his award for Super Bowl MVP. He was clutch and he got it done. His playoff numbers in 2007 were the best of his career, with a rating of 96, and 6 TDs and just 1 INT.

Personally, I had mixed emotions on what he was all about. On one hand, we had a huge body of work of very average QB play over 4 seasons in the pros. But, then we had this remarkable month in January of 2008 where he couldn't miss and wouldn't crack under any type of scheme or pressure. Was this the case of a player in a 1-month zone, playing the best of his career at just the perfect time? Or even luckiest time?

2008 started and Eli was a Super Bowl champion. He was now in a position to be one of the elite QBs and needed to prove he could play well on a Sunday to Sunday basis like the greats all could. But, he was simply, "ok". He won a lot of games, but his QB play just wasn't that impressive. His numbers were always so-so, and his posture and expressions indicated that he was never enjoying himself. His demeanor seemed to indicate that this was not a fun profession, but rather something he had to do since he was a boy. His enthusiasm seemed to be non-existent and in a sport that features some very enthusiastic QBs, this was a weird departure.

The Giants were one-and-done in 2008, 8-8 in 2009, and missed the playoffs late in 2010. With each passing year, Eli's 2007 looked more like a decent QB playing out of his mind in that one month. He was a fine QB, but not a great one. Looking around the NFL, it was easy to make cases for his skill set being inferior to quite a few others.

But he had his ring. And therefore had the debate advantage against anyone who did not have one as well. As he hit his 30th birthday, opinions were still just as split as ever on Eli Manning.

In August, he was asked how he could get to that top class of NFL QBs, next to Tom Brady. Eli responded, "I consider myself in that class." I snickered. It seemed absurd.

2011 brought the 1st year in his career where his brother was not putting up superior numbers elsewhere in the league. And Eli responded by putting up the best numbers of his career. Easily the best yardage per attempt and yardage per game numbers. The interceptions that haunted him in 2010 dropped substantially, and his performances in big games started to soar again.

And yesterday can put those 2007 "fluke" premises to bed. His performance at Lambeau against a heavily-favored, 15-1 Packers squad cannot be understated. The Packers played like a team with the weight of the world on their shoulders and as they say, "pressure busts pipes". With each drop or fumble, the Packers free-wheeling offense grew tighter and tighter. Things were so easy until they were not. And with a ticking clock piling more and more pressure up, Eli hit Hakeem Nicks for a pair of gigantic 1st half TDs, including a Hail Mary that likely won New York the game.

Aaron Rodgers, who 9 out of 10 football people would say is a better QB, succumbed to the pressure of the situation - missing throws he never misses. While Eli Manning stood tall and delivered precise passes to perfect spots for a good part of the game. His best throws were his most important throws, converting on long 3rd Downs all day long. He won a duel that most people thought he couldn't.

Now, Eli Manning sits in the NFC Championship Game. He will again be an underdog, and many of us will look at a San Francisco defense to take him apart. But, my days of vocally doubting Eli Manning are done. He has seemed to always play well against the Dallas Cowboys - so much so that he autographed the wall in the new stadium visitor's locker room, but those aren't his only big days. In fact, they are not even close to his most important big days.

He beat Brady in a Super Bowl. He beat Favre in Lambeau in the NFC Championship Game. He now has beaten Rodgers in Lambeau in the playoffs. He has won enough times during the playoffs in very difficult situations to realize that while, yes, he does have the pleasure of playing on a team with a very dominant defense, he still delivers when called upon. He is not winning by himself, but he is winning.

So, yes, I was wrong on Eli Manning. Many times. I have no idea where to rate him among the elite QBs in the NFL. But, it is foolish to spend much time picking apart his body language or his October passer rating. He plays his best at the biggest time of the year, and has a special ability to never seem to feel pressure when his counter-parts do.

And that is where we must surmise that his lineage does matter and always did. The NFL is not as impressive to someone who grew up in a home with NFL Quarterbacks his entire life. His mind is not blown by the environment. And it shows.

So, I am out of the business of doubting him. He has taught me a valuable lesson that took almost 10,000 hours to learn. Sometimes, the name does matter. And no matter how much time you spend on your opinions, some of them are going to be dead wrong.

The Play After The Catch

2012-01-13T08:59:00.004-06:00

This week marked the 30th anniversary of one of the single most famous moments in the history of our game of football. As any Cowboys fan recalls, January 10, 1982 was the day of "The Catch" in Candlestick Park where Joe Montana found Dwight Clark in the back of the end zone with Everson Walls attempting to lunge and stop this moment in time which defined both franchises in the 1980's in their respective cities.

The 49ers had gone 13-3 in 1981, after 3 seasons where they combined for 10 wins total (2 wins in 1978, 2 in 1979, and 6 in 1980). Meanwhile, the Cowboys had won 35 games in those 3 previous years (12, 11, and 12) and had put up another 12 win season in 1981. These were two teams on a collision course at Candlestick the entire season long it seemed, but the Cowboys were still the team that most thought would win this game. The 49ers were home, but really, who were the 49ers in 1981? Just an upstart, not that unlike the team that will host New Orleans on Saturday in 2012.

Everyone remembers the catch by Clark and the throw from Montana. It would send the 49ers on their way to dominate the 1980s and it would start a stretch of 18 years in which the 49ers would win at least 10 games on 17 occasions - during a stretch where they went 5 for 5 in Super Bowl appearances.

But, what seems to elude the memory of many is that the catch was made with 0:51 left on the clock. Trailing 28-27, the Cowboys had the ball and needed only a field goal from the reliable kicker, Rafeal Septien. What would happen next would not only define the fates of the teams involved, but also the legacies of two of main players in the game.

On the very first pass of the final Cowboys drive, starting at the Dallas 25 and with 0:47 left, QB Danny White dropped back to pass and threw a dart to Drew Pearson on a "dig" route at midfield. The throw required precision as it threaded the needle between the corner and safety perfectly to hit Pearson at midfield and in stride. Rookie cornerback Eric Wright was in a trail position, but was able to get his right arm under the collar of Pearson and dragged him down to the ground at the 49ers 44 yard line.

His one armed tackle arguably saved a touchdown, and a one-play answer to the drive by Montana. A score would have then put the Cowboys into Super Bowl 16 against the Bengals and history would have changed forever. Replays showed that Dwight Hicks, the 49ers free safety had a great angle to bring down Pearson inside the 40, but we will never know if that would have happened or if the announcers were right, that Wright saved a sure touchdown.

Regardless, the Cowboys still had 0:39 to work with, and the ball less than 10 yards out of field goal range. From the 49ers 44, White dropped back to pass again, but an inside stunt from the 49ers defensive line matched Lawrence Pillers up against Cowboys right guard, Kurt Peterson. Peterson was over-powered, thrown aside, and Pillers sacked White and stripped the ball. Jim Stuckey recovered the ball for San Francisco and the game was won for the 49ers and they were on their way to Pontiac Michigan for Super Bowl 16.

And in that moment in time, the day was saved for the Niners and the Cowboys had lost their 2nd of 3 straight NFC Championship Games.

One can only wonder, what was done to the legacies of Danny White and Drew Pearson with that one play. For White, a player who started 92 games for the Cowboys at QB and won 62 of them, he would be forever known as a "2nd-tier" QB between Staubach and Aikman, despite winning a lot of games in the regular season and 6 playoff games. Years later, Tony Romo would be compared to him rather than the legends who won Super Bowls. But, had he won that game and carried his team into the Super Bowl, perhaps he would have a better place saved for him in Cowboys' lore.

Meanwhile, there is no real great reason that Drew Pearson has been out of the Hall of Fame. With his numbers and his moments in the post season that defined greatness, he has a resume that is limitless. He absolutely should be in Canton, but for whatever reason, he was left out when the shrines were built to honor those from his era. One can only imagine what that catch and that moment would have done for his legend. It would have ranked up there with his Hail Mary moment and his performance in Atlanta in the 1980 playoffs as his greatest hits and would have made him an automatic entry into the Hall of Fame.

The point to all of this is that White and Pearson did what they could. If Walls could get his fingers on that pass or Peterson could have held off Pillers, the game would have been won. It demonstrated the hands of fate that a QB and a WR have no control over, and yet, they must forever be remembered as "losing those games". Even in individual honors, it is truly a team sport.

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Here are some playoff picks for the weekend:

Saturday -

New Orleans at San Francisco: This contest involves the great discussion of a wonderful offense against a solid defense. The 49ers are better than most will admit, as they have beaten a host of playoff teams this season, and the Saints give us pause when they leave the friendly confines of the Superdome. The question is whether the front 7 of the Niners can disrupt the multiple-faceted attack of the Saints for 3 hours and generate enough offense of their own in their short passing game and pounding the rock with a big, physical offensive line. This could be a real war and a very entertaining game. In the end, I like the Saints, but I believe they will be stretched to the outer limits of their abilities to advance. Saints 24, 49ers 20.

Denver at New England: Ah yes, what could be the most watched divisional round playoff game in NFL history will explode for all to see on Saturday night in prime time. Everyone knows that strange things occur on Saturday night in the NFL playoffs, but it will take more than the kickoff time of this game to save Denver. They are a truly wonderful story and the Tim Tebow narrative is fascinating on a number of levels, but the idea that they can beat a wounded Steelers team at home is a way different challenge to slowing down Tom Brady and the Patriots at their place. Also factor in that the Patriots have been a very poor playoff team at him in the last several years, requiring them to hear this again and again stack the odds more against Denver. And that doesn't even weigh the short work week and the cross-country travel. It has been a nice run for the Broncos, but it won't advance past this game. Patriots 31, Broncos 17.

Sunday -

Houston at Baltimore: The wonderful journey of what is left of the Houston Texans puts them 60 minutes from the AFC Championship Game. Despite crippling injury issues hitting the squad, they pounded the Bengals last week in front of their adoring public. Now, they face a team that had a QB that certainly seems shaky and vulnerable in many situations, but has the luxury of playing with a lead on most occasions. How TJ Yates is able to make plays down the field to Andre Johnson will tell us a bit about how this game plays out, but more importantly to the pace of the game will be how Houston can move the football on the ground. I am tempted to take Houston here, but that would be underselling the Baltimore defense - something that is not to be done unless there is a very dynamic QB taking them down. And there is not. Baltimore 20, Houston 16.

New York at Green Bay: Finally, the game that has had so many people on the underdog, that they might actually be the popular choice. There is no doubt that the Giants have a few things working for them here. 1) they have strengths where the Packers have weaknesses. The Giants DL against the Packers OL is a major mismatch, and the Giants passing game should be able to accomplish some things against the Packers secondary and lack of pass rush (provided Dom Capers doesn't get there with the blitz like he did last post season so well). Also, the Giants have the swagger of having won in Lambeau in 2007 with many players remaining. But, the trendy pick is also a pick that ignores the wild inconsistencies of the Giants this year and the fact that Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a multiple-interception game all year. With that and home field, I believe form holds here: Green Bay 31, New York 24.

Enjoy the games, after this weekend there are only 3 more games until September.

What To Do With Anthony Spencer

2012-01-12T07:25:00.004-06:00

As soon as the NFL season ends, players scatter and fans attempt to get interested in playoff games that don't involve their favorite team. But, for the coaches and front office of the Dallas Cowboys, chances are very good that they are locked in a room right now with hour after hour being spent on self-scouting and analysis on what they currently have on their roster.

This will determine their path moving forward. Which players are keepers? Which players are clearly worth taking to camp next year as a competitor for a special teams job? Which players need to be released and replaced? These are all questions that you want to have answers on before the annual tradition of going to Mobile, Alabama for Senior Bowl activities on the week after the Conference Championship Games.

Part of this process is to make quick decisions on your own free agents. Chances are pretty good that if any of the pending free agents were considered to be "must haves", then an extension would already have been completed provided that the two sides had realistic ideas of a fair price.

That leads us to believe that the difficult free agency questions in front of the Dallas Cowboys may not be as difficult as they appear. The three biggest free agent issues are punter Mat McBriar, wide receiver Laurent Robinson, and of course, outside line backer Anthony Spencer. With all due respect to Martellus Bennett, Alan Ball, and Jon Kitna, most of the rest of the names on the unrestricted list seem to speak for themselves. Montrae Holland and Keith Brooking might both get 1-year offers, but there is no hurry on 10 of the 13 names on the list.

Here are the 3 that give you pause:

McBriar is considered to be one of the best punters in the business, but with his injury issue right now that will require time to heal, he may not quite see the bidding he dreamed of. Odds are pretty good that the Cowboys continue their long relationship with this elite punter, provided his nerve issues in his foot resolve in a timely fashion.

Robinson has put himself in this position by playing exceptional football from the time he arrived at Valley Ranch. Somehow, he had a grasp for the nuance of the offense that Dez Bryant still seems to seek. Not only that, but he routinely found the end zone. His 11 Touchdowns trailed only 3 players in the league, with Chris Gronkowski, Calvin Johnson, and Jordy Nelson as the only players to exceed his end zone trips. Nelson accepted a home-town discount with the Packers in October for $13 million over 3 years, and perhaps given they were both born 11 days apart in May of 1985 and both had breakout 2011s, that would be a rather fair projection for what Robinson will be seeking.

Of course, the Cowboys might counter by pointing out Nelson far exceeded his production in terms of receptions, yardage, and body-of-work. Earlier this year, Nelson finished 2nd in Super Bowl MVP voting while Robinson was being discarded at the end of camp by the San Diego Chargers. Further, it might be considered reckless to pay a 3rd WR decent money given that you have already sunk so much money into that position and given that there are so many other holes to consider. But, if I am the Cowboys, I really need to hold on to Robinson and would rush to get his signature on a contract along those lines. They paid Patrick Crayton a 4-year, $14 million deal in December of 2007, and have been looking for a 3rd WR who could offer multiple options and coverage headaches. As another reference point, Chicago just locked up Earl Bennett (who is 24 years old) on a 5-year deal for $18.5 million and will likely be their 3rd WR. If they want this offense to remain dynamic in the air, they better figure out how to get this one done. Robinson, on the other hand, might want to drag his feet and see if someone out there is willing to pay him "starter" money and get in the $20-$25 million range for 4 or 5 years.

And then comes the big one, Anthony Spencer.

It is difficult to look at Anthony Spencer without emotion. Most Cowboys fans have been mad at him for not being DeMarcus Ware, part 2, for years. He was a non-factor as a rookie, given the starting job in 2008, had small sack totals for almost 2 seasons, went nuts in the final month of 2009, and then went back to being a rather ordinary pass rusher for the entirety of the 2010 and 2011 seasons. How ordinary? Well, in 5 seasons, 76 professional games, he has 21.5 sacks. Ware had 20 sacks in 2011 alone.

This annoys Cowboys fans, especially on days where the team can not generate a pass rush - see the Week 14 game against the Giants when Eli Manning dropped to pass 50 times and was hardly touched. It is also annoying to know that he was taken in the 1st Round after the Cowboys traded up to get him. They sent their 2nd, 3rd, and 5th round picks to get back in the 1st Round to get Spencer. They had to have him. And they got their man. So much so, that after the draft, Cowboys' brass was bragging that when they traded out in the Brady Quinn deal, they still got the guy they wanted in Spencer when they jumped back up. Everything broke right for them and nobody could believe their good fortune.

The next outside LB to go in 2007 was not selected until pick #46, when Pittsburgh grabbed Lamarr Woodley out of Michigan. When Pittsburgh targets an outside LB for the 3-4, it always give the rest of the league pause because they generally know what they are looking for. Two outside edge rushers for the 3-4 defense from the Big 10 were taken. Dallas traded up to get Spencer and Pittsburgh landed Woodley by sitting and waiting for him to fall into their laps. And forever their careers were linked by draft nerds.

Both have now played 5 seasons, and Spencer's 21.5 sacks certainly lack the punch of Woodley's 48. Neither started in 2007, so both numbers are based on 4 seasons of work. Spencer gets about 5 sacks a season, Woodley gets about 10. And on August 5th, the Steelers made sure that they didn't lose Woodley to free agency by locking him down to a 6-year, $61.5 million deal, with $22.5m up front.

Woodley spent most of 2011 banged up in one way, shape, or form. He only played 520 snaps to Spencer's 939, but again found 10 sacks while Spencer had just 6. Spencer is generally regarded as slightly better against the run, but Woodley more than makes up for it by destroying pass protection from the opposite position of James Harrison.

So, now the question the Cowboys have in front of them: Do they try to keep Anthony Spencer? It seems like an easy decision to cut him loose, but if you do, then who plays one of your most vital positions on the field? Who is opposite Ware? Could Victor Butler possibly be ready? He played just 233 snaps this season, and the question remains whether he can play in all situations or is he just a situational pass rusher?

Because if Butler is not up to the task, then you will feel compelled to make outside LB a possible target in the 1st Round to replace Spencer. And that takes away your most desirable offseason chip, Pick #14 of the 1st Round. It would be a difficult decision to dedicate your best resource to another LB when your offensive line and your secondary seem to desperately need your attention.

Spencer is steady. He is thought of as a very solid starter in the NFL. But, he is not thought of as a star edge rusher, which is what every team is trying to assemble. Pittsburgh has 2, but they are the exception. Green Bay has nobody of note opposite Clay Matthews and they still can play in February. Should the Cowboys play it safe and try to get Spencer done for half of Woodley's deal (a total package in roughly the $30 million range for 4 seasons)?

Indications are they they would not. There have been no substantive discussions between the two parties at this point in time.

But, it seems rather likely that Spencer will get many phone calls in March when he hits free agency from a team that wants a 28-year old who has been a starter in this league for a long time to nail down their spot.

Every decision leads to many more as you try to figure out how to solve this puzzle.

The BaD Radio Weekly Podcast

2012-01-11T14:12:00.002-06:00

13 January 2012 - Suit Bowl 2012 and the inside story of Bob's book

6 January 2012 - Happy New Year, Lamar Odom's candy addiction and Dan's outfits for the month

30 December 2011 - People killing fools for them Jordans, Boston Bruins' TV voice Jack Edwards and Steve Ott

9 December 2011 - White Elephant Edition! Featuring a prank, an interview with an adult film actress and a serious considering of how lonely Sean Bass is.

2 December 2011 - BaD Radio learns the intimate details of Dan's personal life, reviews the Newy-TO feud and asks TC some questions about drug school

25 November 2011 - BaD Radio gets to the bottom of this JFK business, reviews Dan's thanksgiving quirks and interviews new Stars owner Tom Gaglardi and NHL commissioner Gary Bettman

18 November 2011 - The Musers' proclivity for booking the relatives of famous celebrities, the suburban phenomenon of Apartment People and an especially lengthy discussion of Tim Tebow's merits

11 November 2011 - The Jerry Sandusky case, an assortment of news tidbits and full coverage of Barber Shop conspiracies

4 November 2011 - The world's population, a zany audio bag and the recent Tom Landry doc

28 October 2011 - The Derek Holland debate, an appearance from George Dunham and an interview with Brett Hull

21 October 2011 - BaD Radio looks back on the ALCS and looks forward--in song--to the World Series

14 October 2011 - Bob returns from Honduras and tells many stories!

7 October 2011 - Rangers win the ALDS and BaD Radio talks to Tom Seaver

30 September 2011 - Rhadigan's beef, 2011 GBL payoff and Bob's weekly phone call from Honduras

23 September 2011 - More thoughts on Moneyball, how Mark Followill relates to the formation of BaD Radio and reflections on the retirement of Mike Modano

16 September 2011 - BaD Radio has the harrowing tale of changing a tire, an interview with Gibby Haynes of the Butthole Surfers and an advance review of Moneyball

9 September 2011 - TV critic Ed Bark, Michael Irvin's wheels-off preseason performance and Mark Followill's play-by-play of everyday events

2 September 2011 - Stunning and revealing interviews with Troy Aikman, Daniel Johnston and Bob Sturm

26 August 2011 - Dan brings us the story of a man fascinated with diapers, and Bob reveals some big news

19 August 2011 - BaD Radio checks out the new TV show "Most Eligible Dallas," tells the story of the Wrestling von Erichs and discovers the most intense Knox City football fan imaginable

12 August 2011 - Deion's Hall of Fame induction speech, Dan's car trouble and Bob's big secret revealed

5 August 2011 - Live from training camp! The pop culturally biased quiz, a preview of Rob Ryan's defense and Dan & Donovan's attempts at stand-up.

29 July 2011 - BaD Radio wins the softball game, turns in a top-3 mailbag and interviews Mike Modano

22 July 2011 - Ralph Strangis on Press Your Luck, the It's Just Banter of handicapping the Guest Booking League, a recap of the Breaking Bad premier and an interview with Poot from the Wire

15 July 11, 2 - The first four of the eight interviews Bob and Dan have conducted with Dirk Nowitzki. This is part two of two.

15 July 2011, 1 - The first four of the eight interviews Bob and Dan have conducted with Dirk Nowitzki. This is part one of two.

8 July 2011 - TC gets kicked out of the Ballpark, Emily Jones finds herself in a tough spot and BaD Radio launches the Guest Booking League

1 July 2011 - BaD Radio reviews their thoughts on Game Of Thrones, Bob interviews his high school basketball coach and Donovan hosts the hot new gameshow "Hood Family Feud"

24 June 2011 - BaD Radio reviews the Tom Grieve Batting Challenge, explains some of the drops from the show and interviews Jim Knox

17 June 2011 - BaD Radio celebrates the Mavs Championship with a series recap, stories from the locker room after game six and a celebration of the Mavs parade

10 June 2011 - Greg Doyle audio, Bob's beef with some guy in Houston and the Sports Grid radio host power rankings

3 June 2011 - BaD Radio interviews a sales rep for Miami Modern Luxury, reviews the Mavs' big win in game two and talks to the real Heat fans of South Beach

27 May 2011 - The Western Conference Finals trophy presentation, Oprah's last show and a quiz about Oklahoma City

20 May 2011 - Twiggy breaks down bull fighting, BaD Radio interviews Jimmy Goldstein and Aquaman talks to sea creatures

13 May 2011 - Scoops with Phil Jackson, Donnie Nelson and random awesome segment about Bob's mother in law and drug rehab (separately)

6 May 2011 - The death of Osama bin Laden and an interview with former Navy SEAL Clint Bruce

29 April 2011 - BaD Radio goes into Dan's World of Petty Theft shows, re-creates the name game and talks to Trent, the kid who catches home runs on Greene's Hill.

22 April 2011 - Mike Krzyzewski, Dan's adventures in Cleveland and Steve-O

15 April 2011 - The one-legged Stars fan, Sports Show With Norm McDonald and that guy who made a Cowboys song

8 April 2011 - The Aggies win the championship, the aftermath of the failed Steve Ott jersey contest and the latest thing happening with Quick

1 April 2011 - Hoosiers, Surviving The Game and Emily Jones

25 March 2011 - BaD Radio talks to Bill Simmons, gets the inside Dez Bryant scoop from Deion Sanders and attends the Musers Campout.

18 March 2011 - The Fab 5 documentary, Bracket Dan & a call to Ireland

11 March 2011 - Bob Knight's big slip-up, Killer's podcast and Donovan's cereal challenge

4 March 2011 - Dan's Birthday & Ghetto Jeopardy

25 February 2011 - More Dwaine Carroway, Homer Bowl XI and Craig Luwdig

18 February 2011 - Sean Ryan, Razor Reaugh and Tom's adventures in Calgary

11 February 2011 - Chris Arnold & Prince, Dwaine Carraway and the Packers win the Super Bowl

4 February 2011 - BaD Radio broadcasts from Radio Row at the Super Bowl, interviewing Miles Austin, the Wayans brothers, Herschel Walker and Joe Montana. Plus Intern James.

21 January 2011 - Charles Haley, the MLK twitter controversy and BaD Radio's visit with an Aaron Rodgers expert

14 January 2011 - BaD Radio reviews a big Dan bit, has a program meeting and says what's on their TiVo

7 January 2011 - BaD Radio reviews Dick Clark's performance, goes through the first wildcard round of the Homer Call playoffs and talks about the Capitols v Penguins HBO series.

3 January 2011 - Bob's friend farts on command

23 December 2010 - While BaD Radio's on vacation, what you say we take a look back at all the Irv and Joe Games they've played. This is part two of two.

22 December 2010 - While BaD Radio's on vacation, what you say we take a look back at all the Irv and Joe Games they've played. This is part one of two.

17 December 2010 - Tyson Chandler, Pony Excess and that kinda-racist Redskins liner

10 December 2010 - White Elephant review, Sean Bass gets engaged and Bill Guerin retires

3 December 2010 - Donovan's christmas card, that Caps PR guy and Mark Cuban

26 November 2010 - BaD Radio reviews the Roger Waters show, watches Twiggy square off against Nicole and promotes an upcoming appearance.

19 November 2010 - Roy Williams' comments, the Sampler Platter and the relationship status of TC Fleming

12 November 2010 - Initial impressions of Jason Garrett as cowboys head coach, a forewarning in regard to free agent pitching contracts and Bob's review of Jackass 3-D.

5 November 2010 - Rangers lose the World Series, Dan gets a cup and Gibby Haynes. AWESOME!

29 October 2010 - Rangers win the ALCS, Tom Hicks and Homer Call

22 October 2010 - Where Cliff Lee will go, fan on the field and the Mad Men Finale. Plus Screenless with George.

15 October 2010 - Rangers, Bob Knight and the simulcast with BBC Liverpool.

8 October 2010 - Rangers playoffs, Adam Carolla and Felix Jones.

1 October 2010 - Dallas ISD Super Intendent talk, Rangers and Stars TV contracts and Stephen Tobolowsky

25 September 2010 - A Re-Exmination of the 2006 Draft, stunning audio from Roy Williams, and a report on the status of the upcoming Guest Booking League punishment.

18 September 2010 - Deion, fan attitude talk and September 11th.

10 September 2010 - The Tara ticker, Homer Call and the whole toll road thing

4 September 2010 - BaD Radio tells the story of Daxx Gram and tries to cash a check.

27 August 2010 - BaD Radio discusses Jordan Rides The Bus (30 for 30 documentary), the Fight Night technical meltdown and Chuck Klosterman.

21 August 2010 - Hudson Houk, Dan's dispute with his Fantasy Football League and Jason Garrett. Plus the Albert Haynesworth Challenge.

12 August 2010, 2 - BaD radio holds its Guest Booking League each year since 2005 for one purpose: to punish the show member who books the least amount of guests. In the second of two historical podcasts, we revisit the 2007, 2008 and 2009 seasons: Open Mic Night, the Hockey Knights and Grubes Grubes' stand-up routine.

12 August 2010, 1 - BaD radio holds its Guest Booking League each year since 2005 for one purpose: to punish the show member who books the least amount of guests. In the first of two historical podcasts, we revisit the 2005 and 2006 seasons: the Dunk Tank and the Run Of Shame.

7 August 2010 - BaD Radio talks to the man whose life inspired the movie Goodfellas, analyzes the Rangers' sale and breaks down the Antoine Dotson situation.

30 July 2010 - BaD Radio catches passes from Stephen McGee, reviews Inception and reveals the most interesting sotryline of Dallas Cowboys training camp

23 July 2010 - Jake loses his car, the Whataburger Guy interview and the Omar interview.

16 July 2010 - BaD Radio plans Twiggy's 40th birthday party, reveal the truth about purple drank and interviews the Double Rainbow guy.

10 July 2010 - BaD Radio returns from vacation, talks with Big Foot encounter veteran Tim Peeler and talks over this whole LeBron thing.

25 June 2010 - BaD Radio tells you that you look like a moron, Dan shows his family his Hitler 'stache and Donovan reviews The Godfather.

18 June 2010 - BaD Radio discusses Vince Young getting into a fight, the 30 for 30 documentary on the OJ Simpson chase and the views of the denizens of the Nice Look Barbershop.

11 June 2010 - BaD Radio talks to Gabe Kapler, tries to find who the a-hole is and remembers John Wooden.

4 June 2010 - Armando Galarraga's not perfect game, Bob in Lynchburg and Dan in Dayton.

28 May 2010 - BaD Radio breaks down the Lost finale, receives a call from George Dunham's blue flame and interviews Stephen Tobolowsky.

21 May 2010 - BaD Radio talks to Jon Daniels, Vladimir Guerrero and Dez Bryant.

14 May 2010 - BaD Radio protests the mustache wheel, talks with Derek Holland and gets the Guest Booking League going.

7 May 2010 - BaD Radio recaps the Great Game, talks about the Mavs' Average Distance per Shot and chronicles the story of the thwarted Times Square bombing.

30 April 2010 - BaD Radio finds awesome Draft audio, discusses the Mike Bacsik situation and attends the Woodford Reserve Musers Campout.

23 April 2010 - BaD Radio talks to Deion Sanders & Jerry Jones. Separately. Also, draft audio.

16 April 2010 - BaD Radio interviews Damon Wayans, tours the Tower of London and disappoints its mother.

9 April 2010 - BaD Radio reflects on Mike Modano's special moment, interviews Caron Butler and gets the Community's reaction to Tiger Woods.

2 April 2010 - Mark Cuban, Donnie movie review of Fargo, & Dan's World.

27 March 2010 - BaD Radio reviews Dave Bliss, throws down the intern challenge and asks if Michael Jordan has a Hitler mustache.

19 March 2010 - BaD Radio reviews what is Gay and Not Gay and covers this whole Ron Washington cocaine business.

12 March 2010 - BaD Radio finds an interesting cab driver in Washington, DC, broadcasts live from Buffalo and gets in trouble with the Capitals. All from the Annual Dallas Stars Roadtrip.

5 March 2010 - BaD Radio reviews the Generals draft, talk to Bill Guerin and celebrate Dan's birthday.

26 February 2010 - BaD Radio talks to Team Canada member Brenden Morrow, debates some stuff, and Homer Bowl X.

19 February 2010 - BaD Radio gets into Caron Butler's backstory, hosts the Homer Call semifinal and listens to the latest work of Scoops Callahan.

12 February 2010 - BaD Radio interviews Torii Hunter and Matt Kemp, delves into Sean Bass's love situation and talks to George Dunham at Ticketstock.

5 February 2010 - BaD Radio interviews Bobby Hebert, Herschel Walker and conducts quizzes with Super Bowl participants.

30 January 2010 - BaD Radio talks Hank Greenberg, Anvil, and Kurt Warner. Plus a new tradition, to be repeated every week: rolling screenless to end the podcast.

22 January 2010 - BaD Radio simulcasts with KFAN, talks about the state of NHL refereeing, confronts Grubes, and retells the story of Bunpot. Your life will be better if you tune in.

15 January 2010 - BaD Radio acknowledges the harsh words of KFAN, calls Brainerd, MN, reviews the NBC late night schedule, and starts the Homer Call Of The Week playoffs. Best podcast of 2010, any genre.

9 January 2010 - Bad Radio talks about the Gilbert Arenas fiasco, interviews Dirk, and explores what is on their TiVo. With a special guest host!

11 December 2009 - BaD Radio participates in White Elephant Day, with talk of time travel, calls to Appleby's and an exploration into the world of internet dating. Also with Donovan Tickers!

4 December 2009 - BaD Radio talks about door-to-door salesmen, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Tom's drinking.

27 November 2009 - BaD Radio talks about Thanksfiving, to Troy Aikman, and concerning the upper decker.

20 November 2009 - BaD Radio has another Donovan Movie Review, an interview with Homer Call legend Sam Huff, and a pothole.

13 November 2009 - BaD Radio reviews the Jimmy The Greek documentary, talks about computer viruses, compares Wade to Belichick, and replays some great work by Tom.

6 November 2009 - BaD Radio talks about racist dolls, penis drawings, and white football players. Most Important thing you'll do this week.

30 October 2009 - BaD Radio previews the Mavs, critiques Thom Brenneman, interviews Mark Cuban, and plays some nice Jerry Jones audio.

23 October 2009 - BaD Radio talks in heated tones through the Patrick Crayton situation, explores the categories of comedy television shows, and skydives. You could listen to something else instead, but that would be a letdown.

16 October 2009 - BaD Radio talks to Jon Daniels about Rudy Jaramillo, Wayne Winston about the Mavericks, and Dikembe Mutumbo about... nothing? More awesome than the awesomest thing you can think of.

9 October 2009 - BaD Radio ponders the mortality of cats, discusses Dale Hansen's television show, and reviews Grubes' stand-up performance.

2 October 2009 - BaD Radio's interview with Charles Haley, Gay Not Gay, and an argument about Daniel Graham.

25 September 2009 - BaD Radio interviews Joe Montana, reviews the experience of UFC 103, and debates Hitler v. Stalin. So good it doesn't require some witty line at the end of the summary.

18 September 2009 - BaD Radio selects the Homer Call of the Week, interviews Joe Nieuwendyk and C-3PO (separately), and breaks down Emmitt Smith pitching pork. Easily the most fulfilling thing you'll do this week.

11 September 2009 - BaD Radio reviews Dan's appearance on Doocy, participates in the Martellus Bennett Show, and drafts the first round of the BaD Radio Fantasy Draft. The podcast Joe Wilson doesn't want you to listen to.

5 September 2009 - BaD Radio interviews Charlie Day of "It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia," deals with various aspects of the Tooth Fairy, and looks into Bob's "Texas Produces Too Many 1st Round Busts" claim. The champagne of podcasts.

28 August 2009 - BaD Radio partakes in three interviews with Martellus Bennett, Tiny Lister, and Biz Markie.

22 August 2009 - BaD Radio talks to Deion Sanders, all is revealed.

16 August 2009 - BaD radio asks what's gay and not gay, talks to Brady James and previews Fight Night.

8 August 2009 - BaD Radio interviews Alamo Art, talks about the Cowboys' health concerns, and kicks field goals. This podcast can make you thicker and wider!

2 August 2009 - BaD Radio plays the Irv & Joe Game, races home from San Antonio, and makes a bet with the Hardline, all in training camps past. Ever wonder the origins of the name "The Chill?" Learn it here, on the BaD Radio Podcast!

1 August 2009 - BaD Radio takes a break of vacation to deliver the three best segments ever run during training camp: Dan's adventures on the Okie Girls show, the review of the Old School DVD, and the story of Bob and Dan walking out on dinner with Big Dick Hunter after visiting the "Death Corner" of the room where Janis Joplin died. Truly a special treat.

24 July 2009 - BaD Radio breaks down Breaking Bad, discusses baseball with Nolan Ryan, and gives an advance review of Goodfellas. Featuring the best open ever created.

18 July 2009 - BaD Radio finds audio of some radio blow-ups, asks Ian Kinsler what it's like to play baseball, and reveals the Air Wolf story. Caution: May change your life.

11 July 2009 - BaD Radio breaks down the Marion trade, talks up Top Gun with Donovan, and searches through the Nathan's Hot Dog Contest. Easily the best podcast you'll hear all week.

5 July 2009 - BaD Radio talks up Bob's and Donnie's Vacations and reviews the book Outliers. You'd be a fool to miss it.

26 June 2009 - BaD Radio briefly stirs from its vacation-induced slumber to offer up a collection of interviews conducted with actors who played characters on The Wire - Stringer, Chris Partlow, Snoop, and our review of the series finale. Listening to it is better than what you're doing now.

19 June 2009 - BaD Radio talks to Bill Guerin after the Cup win, reviews Summer Bash, and attacks the BaD Radio Weekly Wrap-Up.

12 June 2009 - BaD Radio recaps Bob's Fenway trip, talks with CJ Wilson and relives the horror of Wednesday's bad weather.

5 June 2009 - BaD Radio takes on Troy Aikman, Benjamin Button and Terrell Owens' publicist.

29 May 2009 - BaD Radio talks to the Rangers' rookie Derek Holland, ask what's Gay or Not Gay and catch up with BaD BFF Bill Guerin. And more.

22 May 2009 - BaD Radio gives Lost and 24 HSO's and discusses Crystal Taylor's phone interview audio.

15 May 2009 - BaD Radio chats about Dan's mouth sores, breaks down Humble Billy audio, and goes pitch-by-pitch through the Great Game.

8 May 2009 - BaD Radio outlines the ongoing war between Mike Leach and Aggie, looks for audio twinsies, and makes fun of their coworkers' fine efforts at Great Game practice.

1 May 2009 - BaD Radio taunts Spurs fans, brings you the best draft audio ever and delivers the latest adventures of Scoops Callahan.

24 April 2009 - BaD Radio takes a look at interesting kid BJ Raji, Bob tries to change his phone service and ends up with a dead mouse, and the guys further mock Deion. It's a real party.

17 April 2009 - This week, BaD Radio touches on Easter, calls Deion a moron, and talks with Derek from Step Brothers. Pow.

10 April 2009 - BaD Radio makes fun of Bob about flyovers, determines what is gay and not gay, and talks with Bob's parents.

Why did Wade Phillips Work In Houston?

2012-01-11T07:29:00.005-06:00

DIscussing defenses around the league is a fun thing to do this time of year on all mediums. On Monday, it was time to sort through why the New York Giants seemed to have so many great defensive lineman and a relentless pass rush that did not depend on one player (answer: they have committed to building a core of depth in New York and they have been successful in doing so).

I have been asked by a few different readers to examine what is going on down in Houston, with Wade Phillips and the Texans installing an entirely new scheme to their personnel and finding great success in year one. If I am going to allow Rob Ryan the mulligan on account of not having an off-season program to make sure everyone was comfortable with the scheme and familiar with what was expected of them, then certainly Houston could have the same excuse for moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense.

In fact, much of the off-season, the narrative in Houston was based on the idea that they had players - most notably one of the very best players in the NFL, Mario Williams - that would not fit the 3-4 scheme. He was exceptional as a 4-3 defensive end, but perhaps without a home in Phillips' new scheme. He weighed nearly 300 pounds, and as much versatility as the OLB position required seemed to suggest that this move would have been crazy. But, they tried it with brave faces.

In the Texans 5th game of the season, at home against the Raiders, Williams grabbed his 5th sack of the year by getting to Jason Campbell. In doing so, he ripped his left pectoral muscle and was lost for the season. The Houston equivalent of DeMarcus Ware was going on injured reserve and now Wade Phillips and his staff would have to navigate with both a new scheme and a season-ending injury to their best pass rusher. Surely, as the media quickly typed, this would be the start of a very rocky learning experience.

And clearly, nobody in the media knows what they are talking about. How do we explain this?

Houston Texans - Defense 2010-2011

Year	PPG Vs	Sacks	Takeaways
2010	26.7 (29th)	30 (23rd)	18 (30th)
2011	17.4 (4th)	44 (6th)	27 (12th)

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Not just improvement in every single category, but substantial improvement in every single category. Now, there are some mitigating circumstances that are beyond their control, such as no meetings against Peyton Manning this year, but still, that across-the-board improvement clearly shows a team that won 10 games and their division despite losing their Quarterback and best defender for the season.

So, how does a team improve in every category like this in one year? Especially when switching to a completely scheme and having no offseason to work through all of the bugs? And then, losing their best player within one month of the new season?

When Frank Bush was fired at the end of 2010, Pro Football talk wrote the following: there wasn’t a soul that watched the Texans defense this season that didn’t know that this move was coming. They finished 30th in yards allowed, 29th in points allowed and made quarterbacks from Tim Tebow to Bruce Gradkowski to Kerry Collins look like All-Pros at various points this season. Of course, all those numbers are just part of the reason why this news raises no eyebrows.

It seemed clear to those who did not follow the team closely that adding Wade Phillips and his scheme that helped get him fired in Dallas would end poorly in Houston, too.

And that is when we were reminded again that players play. And when you wonder why a team is as good or bad as it is, you should spend most of your time looking at what kind of players are being put on the field.

Before we go on, let's look at the same graphic from above to show how Dallas did in 2010-2011.

Dallas Cowboys - Defense 2010-2011

Year	PPG Vs	Sacks	Takeaways
2010	27.3 (31st)	35 (16th)	30 (8th)
2011	21.7 (16th)	42 (7th)	25 (16th)

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Perhaps the most important statistic to notice here is that while points allowed and sacks were both improved, the Rob Ryan defense actually generated less takeaways than the 2010 defense that most people would agree spent the last half of October and the first part of November not even exerting much effort or energy.

Here is what I wrote on the topic of Rob Ryan's 1st season last week:

the Cowboys offered almost no personnel changes in 2011. The marginal swap of Kenyon Coleman for Igor Olshansky at DE (which is one veteran replacement level DE for another) and Abram Elam for Alan Ball which appeared to be an upgrade, albeit a incremental upgrade rather than the big dollar upgrades that were available last summer at safety.

In the draft, they offered little to know defensive support. The one potential impact addition would have been in the 2nd round, but the Cowboys took LB Bruce Carter who was returning from a major knee surgery, and he wouldn't be ready until mid November. Essentially, there was no support at all from the 2011 draft, despite the issues the Cowboys faced in 2010 defensively.

So, everyone was invited back. No free agency strikes. No draft support. No dollar investment in the team aside from discount purchases of players of the Cleveland defense who were not heavily sought after in the league.

But, in the end, I think Rob Ryan did as much with the same defense that he was left with as anyone could reasonably be expected to do with no offseason.

What we need to recognize is that he was not given enough to work with. He still had mediocre secondary personnel and one legit pass rusher. Until that changes, bring in any coordinator you want. They may not be as brash as Rob Ryan, but I don't anticipate that they will be able to make this defense elite, either, until some elite players are brought in.

Put another way, of the top 17 Cowboys defensive players (in terms of snaps taken) that were a part of the 2010 disaster, 15 of them were back on the defense this season. Igor Olshansky (573 snaps) and Stephen Bowen (554) were the only non-returners at defensive end.

The Cowboys tried the ultimate experiment of changing a coach, but keeping the personnel almost completely static. Everyone was back, and aside from the two Cleveland Browns who were brought over (Elam and Coleman) the Cowboys were believing that Rob Ryan could simply deploy them differently.

Meanwhile in Houston, their defense in 2010 was thought of as an even bigger disaster. They were at the bottom of the league in all sorts of defensive metrics and decided if they were ever going to win their division and compete in the playoffs, they would have to solve their defensive issues.

And as one takes a look at how they became such an impressive defense in one year, there are a few in the Dallas media that point to Wade Phillips as the difference. Phillips is certainly a capable coordinator, so this is not to dispute that his scheme works in the NFL. But, he surely used all of his tricks in Dallas, and they weren't working. So, why did those same tricks work in Houston? Or did they?

A closer look reveals that in 2011, the Houston Texans overhauled their defense in one short off-season. They are in the final 8 of the NFL Playoffs and have that coveted playoff win in their back pocket as they head to Baltimore to go for another.

Of the spine of that defense, there were 8 players that played more than 700 snaps this season. Quin Glover, Brian Cushing, and Antonio Smith were the 3 holdovers from the Frank Bush crew that finished in the bottom of the league. However, the other 5 players were all brought different pieces that provided Wade Phillips with proper personnel to change the defense to a 3-4.

One of those 5 players was the return of Connor Barwin who suffered a major injury in Week 1 of 2010. His return from his nasty ankle dislocation gave them a perfect outside LB edge rusher to snap right into Wade's plans. His 12 sacks and 18 QB hits combined for 30 different occasions where he hit the quarterback - more than any Dallas defender - including Ware (28 - 20 sacks, 8 QB hits).

The other 4 major defensive contributors all arrived in the spring and summer of 2011. And all 4 required major investments on the part of the Texans. They used free agency and the draft, and they decided to get Phillips players that could make a significant difference right away.

First in the draft, Houston poured all of its resources into the defense. In the 1st Round, they used pick #11 on Wisconsin DE JJ Watt. This, many agree, was the pick the Cowboys would snag if Tyron Smith was not left on the board. The Cowboys made the pick that they most needed, but Watt gave Houston a DE in the 3-4 that causes havoc every Sunday. According to www.profootballfocus.com he graded as Houston's best defender and was able to get to the QB for 7 sacks and 11 QB hits, while standing up in the run game.

Then, in the 2nd round, took OLB Brooks Reed from Arizona at pick #42 (2 picks after the Cowboys had grabbed LB Bruce Carter at #40). Reed was thought to be depth and insurance because the Texans were planning on Barwin and Mario Williams at OLB, but when Mario was lost for the year, Reed took over. He then played 799 snaps and totaled 6 sacks as a rookie. Later in the 2nd round, the Texans traded up with New England to take a cornerback from Miami, Brandon Harris. Harris has played quite sparingly in 2011, but at the age of 21, he has plenty of time to contribute.

In the summer, free agency was the next factor and the Texans used it to make a major strike and to fix their secondary. They signed 27-year old corner, Johnathan Joseph from the Bengals. This was a major expenditure of $48.75 million dollars over 5 years, including $23.5 million guaranteed.

That very same day, they targeted a free safety from Chicago, Danieal Manning. They inked his services at the price of $20 million over $4 seasons, including $9 million guaranteed. He provided kick returning and safety play, and despite missing a month with a fractured fibula, he still played 743 snaps.

So, where do we credit this major improvement and defensive success in Houston? Phillips? The Draft with Watt and Reed? Free agency with Joseph and Manning?

I imagine in Houston it doesn't matter where the credit goes. They covered all of the bases and now have a defense that swarmed Andy Dalton and the Bengals and never let them up for air.

Players play and coaches coach. But, from my seat, I suggest that Houston's off season strategy put them in a spot where they could suffer a major injury and still have their best defensive season ever.

A Difference in Philosophy

2012-01-09T06:40:00.004-06:00

It is extremely difficult to watch the NFL Playoffs a week after the Dallas Cowboys crash-and-burn routine ended without thinking about them at every turn. Here is a former Cowboys player, and here is a former Cowboys coach. Over here is another QB who has pulled even with Tony Romo for career playoff wins (TJ Yates) and then the next day, here is even another QB who has pulled even with Romo for career playoff wins (Tim Tebow).

But, no game makes you think about the Cowboys all afternoon quite like watching the New York Giants.

Not only because of the way they dismissed the Cowboys from the 2011 season, but because they are rivals. There is venom. There is jealousy. And there is a distinct difference in philosophy about how to build a playoff-ready power.

We can certainly go on and on about how Ernie Accorsi and Jerry Reese see football differently than Jerry Jones in many regards, but let's stick to what jumps off the screen when you flip on the Giants this time of year.

They are distinctly led and designed around their defensive front. The defensive front is why they won the Super Bowl in the 2007 season - despite rather mediocre play in other departments of their team. And it is that same defensive front that gives them a puncher's chance to defeat the 15-1 Green Bay Packers this coming Sunday at Lambeau Field, just like they did in 2007.

You watch the defensive line of the Giants for any period of time and you see it is not necessarily a front that is built around one player simply being a superstar, but rather a strength-in-numbers philosophy that can withstand an injury or a contract dispute or most importantly, the aging process.

A franchise cannot afford to be crippled when its alpha male, Michael Strahan takes his 141.5 career sacks and moves on to the television studios that retirement bring. His final game was Super Bowl 42, and his legacy was secured when the Giants hassled and hammered Tom Brady all day long in that momentous Super Bowl upset.

And they were not crippled. They were prepared. Because the Giants understand that the line of scrimmage is the easiest way to have success in late seasons scenarios and they also understand that the only way to guarantee that sort of success is to make it a priority every off-season when the franchise must decide where to allocate resources. No franchise has more sacks since 2003 than the New York Giants (379) and it is no accident. It is deliberate and careful persistence in talent collection.

Let's compare the two organizations asset distribution to the defensive front to understand why one team seems to succeed because of its defensive line and the other seems to succeed often in spite of it. Given the difference in scheme, we will try to compare apples to apples and allow OLBs from Dallas if they are primary edge rushers and leave Middle LBs out of the discussion for both sides. For the sake of discussion, we will label any pick in the Top 4 rounds as "premium picks".

First, the Dallas Cowboys use of premium picks since 2003 on the defensive front:

Year	Pick	Name
2005	1/11	DeMarcus Ware
2005	1/20	Marcus Spears
2005	4/132	Chris Canty
2006	3/92	Jason Hatcher
2007	1/26	Anthony Spencer

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Now, the same chart for the New York Giants

Year	Pick	Name
2003	1/25	William Joseph
2003	2/56	Osi Umenyiora
2005	3/74	Justin Tuck
2006	1/32	Mathias Kiwanuka
2006	4/124	Barry Cofield
2007	3/81	Jay Alford
2010	1/15	Jason Pierre Paul
2010	2/46	Linval Joseph
2011	2/52	Marvin Austin

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That is a staggering difference in allocation of assets into a defensive front. Ware is the great equalizer in many regards, as the Cowboys have still accumulated an amazing number of sacks given this discrepancy, and finding Jay Ratliff late has been a great help. But, the Giants wanted to build this generation around their defensive front - like the organization did in the 1980's and 1990's with Bill Parcells and GM George Young. In fact, now, given the use of so many draft picks, it makes you ponder their free agency objective as well.

New York Giants Free Agent DL Signings:

Year	Contract	Name
2009	6/$42m	Chris Canty
2009	4/$16m	Rocky Bernard

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That's right. After spending so many high, premium picks on DL, they also decided before 2009 that they wanted to find even more strength in numbers with the free agent targets of 2 more players - one a reasonably high pick from Dallas.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys countered with this:

Year	Contract	Name
2005	5/$21.5m	Jason Ferguson
2009	4/$18m	Igor Olshansky
2011	2/$3.5m	Kenyon Coleman

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Here again we see that the Cowboys use of free agency goes back to 2005 when Ferguson, Ware, Canty, and Spears were all added in the same spring when Parcells was ready to fully commit to the 3-4. Since then, the draft and free agency have almost completely ignored the front or looked for red-tag discounts.

Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips bragged about finding Igor Olshansky as a perfect replacement for Chris Canty. Nobody would argue that Canty's New York offer would have been mocked had Dallas decided to match it. And it is likely nobody would argue that Canty is entirely overpaid. Canty was not being asked to dominate a game, he was strengthening an already-strong unit. However, Olshansky made almost no impact whatsoever during his stay in Dallas, and frankly, Coleman's year was largely difficult to detect as well.

Observers often suggest that the DE spot in the 3-4 is not designed for play-making, but in Houston (JJ Watt and Antonio Smith), San Francisco (Justin Smith), Green Bay (Cullen Jenkins for several seasons) and New England (Richard Seymour for years) would beg to differ. Houston is especially notable given that Wade Phillips is asking his DEs to do what he asked Olshansky and Spears to do here - but with largely different results.

In the last month, we have seen the Giants DL over-run the Cowboys OL twice (6 sacks last week in a winner-take-all scenario), the Jets, and they stuffed the Falcons in a playoff game for 4 full Quarters. Atlanta only pieced together 2 drives all day long of any substance, and both of them ended when Matt Ryan couldn't move the Defensive front on a 4th and 1. Those failures certainly reminded anyone in these parts of Tony Romo trying to accomplish the same thing one week earlier in the same end of Met Life Stadium.

These are game-changing, season-saving plays. And they don't happen by accident. Of the 8 players the Giants rotated in on their defensive front, 7 of them were major investments. Tuck, Joseph, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka, and Umenyiora were high picks and large contracts. Canty and Bernard were well compensated free agent acquisitions. Only Dave Tollefson, who plays the least of the 8, was a bargain find. The Giants made sure that no matter what sort of injuries or contract issues presented themselves, they would never be left without enough talent to compete. And if all 8 are present and accounted for, they could assemble a rotation of such depth and quality that in a 4 Quarter battle, they would always have a substantial impact. Marvin Austin, their 2011 2nd round pick from North Carolina, is another 310 lb interior beast who tore a pectoral muscle in training camp and will enjoy a redshirt year learning from the best.

Meanwhile, in Dallas, they have to feel that their defensive front has betrayed them too often. If not Ware, then almost nobody troubles a QB without the aid of a blitz. There is very little along the lines of a quality rotation, and there has been no strong challenges from young players who are looking to win jobs. The reason for that is rather explainable, as there has been no priority investment in the DL in years. The last major thrust was the pick of Spencer in 2007, a move that they are now pondering moving on from as he hits free agency with little behind them to step in.

They have felt there have simply been too many other places to address on the roster on draft day. But, with each passing year, they put more and more on the shoulders of those few difference makers that they have and wear and tear is adding up. Word is that they would have been delighted to grab JJ Watt at #9 this past spring, but with Tyron Smith available, and the offensive line in shambles, they did what needed to be done.

The Giants now head to Green Bay, and the Cowboys locker-room has been vacated a week ago. The defensive front is not the only reason the two teams are where they are, but it is the most evident that comes to mind. The Giants likely have too many holes elsewhere on their roster to duplicate their Super Bowl run of 2007, but they can not be counted out.

Thousands of miles away, the Cowboys fan-base looks on and wonders how many players it would take to put on a Doomsday-caliber show like they have watched in New York over the last few weeks.

More than a few.

Viewer Mail

2012-01-06T07:22:00.000-06:00

With Cowboys season now in our rear-view mirror, I will use Friday and Monday as some sort of NFL grab bags, with some thoughts on the playoff games and emails from you, our valued readers. Today, I thought we could start with one final piece of data from the Week 16 game, at the New York Giants.

This is our "throw chart" for Tony Romo, which will help as a companion piece to the Decoding Garrett analysis that we put out on Wednesday. As it plainly appears, despite Romo throwing tons of passes, they were all right at the line of scrimmage with very few exceptions. This speaks to the quick outs that are necessitated due to the Giants front dominating the Cowboys OL. With no time, you cannot attempt passes down the field. The defense knows this reality and patterns their coverage on top of it. They push their coverage forward, knowing that Romo's options are limited by his protection. They make the throwing windows smaller, utilize press coverage, and challenge the Cowboys to beat them over the top. This, of course, is impossible, unless they can give Romo time.

Two completions at 10 yards or further down the field. Dink and dunk offense until the line gets properly fixed.

Now, to the email:

From: Shawn Curran
Subject: Rob Ryan's Defense Did Not Increase QB Sacks
Date: January 4, 2012 9:45:52 AM CST
To: Bob Sturm

Hi Bob,

Is Rob Ryan's scheme much to do about nothing? A big smoke and mirrors routine that wows fans and bores NFL offenses? I submit the following data:

Player, 2010 sacks, 2011 sacks

Terrence Newman, 0,0
Mike Jenkins, 0,0
Orlando Scandrick, 2.5,2
Sean Lee, 0,0
Keith Brooking, 0,0
Bradie James, 0,0
Alan Ball, 0.5,0
Abram Elam, N/A,0
Gerald Sensabaugh, 2.0,0
Jay Ratliff, 3.5,2
Anthony Spencer, 5,6

The result in sacks of all this talk about how Rob Ryan would bring guys from all over the field is no different than Wade's defense. Everyone got about the same number of sacks as they did last year while Sensabaugh and Ratliff actually seemed to do worse.

The only player whose sack numbers changed at all was DeMarcus Ware who had a truly great year. But we already know he's capable of 20-sack seasons because he did it under Wade Phillips.

So at the end of the day is this scheme a bunch of hype? I guess you can blame it on the players but it's tough to imagine all the players are so useless that not a single one benefited from a supposedly pressure-packed scheme.

What is your reaction to this data?

- Shawn

Thanks, Shawn, for the well-thought out feedback. I guess this is the point of the blog where I dust of my defenses of Rob Ryan. I have a great admiration for the Ryan's family approach to defense. I know he is his own man, but I think they all believe in similar tactics and have similar personalities, so there is some spill over from Ryan to Ryan. And what is quite true about the Ryan family is that they are so brash that when there is a failure or perceived failure amongst their work, the public loves to examine it and ask the "what is so great about Rob, Rex, and Buddy Ryan after all?"

I believe coaching matters. I believe it matters a lot. And I believe Rob Ryan is a heck of a coach.

But, I also believe that no man has ever won the Kentucky Derby on a donkey. With that in mind, it is tough to measure the impact of a defensive coordinator against another without weighing the personnel. Bill Walsh is a genius. Is he a genius if he is working with Joe Montana and Jerry Rice? Did he make them legends? Or did they make him a legend? If Bill Walsh takes the Cardinals or Packers job when he was hired by the 49ers in 1979, is he just another coach in the encyclopedia?

This is where the question becomes murky.

The Cowboys were a disgrace in 2010. More than a few places have accused the team of the ultimate sin of quitting. They won 6 games all year and gave up the most points in the history of the franchise, 436. They allowed a team as sterile as Jacksonville to come into Arlington and run up the score on the Cowboys. They were an abomination.

Then, the Cowboys offered almost no personnel changes. The marginal swap of Kenyon Coleman for Igor Olshansky at DE (which is one veteran replacement level DE for another) and Abram Elam for Alan Ball which appeared to be an upgrade, albeit a incremental upgrade rather than the big dollar upgrades that were available last summer at safety.

In the draft, they offered little to know defensive support. The one potential impact addition would have been in the 2nd round, but the Cowboys took LB Bruce Carter who was returning from a major knee surgery, and he wouldn't be ready until mid November. Essentially, there was no support at all from the 2011 draft, despite the issues the Cowboys faced in 2010 defensively.

So, everyone was invited back. No free agency strikes. No draft support. No dollar investment in the team aside from discount purchases of players of the Cleveland defense who were not heavily sought after in the league.

Then, no off-season program for Ryan to install his most complex of defensive schemes. If you believe Wade Phillips was vanilla and Ryan was the polar opposite, then surely installation time is imperative to the personnel so that they may get familiar and that it might enter some sort of "second nature" feel for each player.

Instead, it was a rushed camp to figure out where everyone was to go and what to do.

Bottom line: Did the Cowboys turn into the 1985 Bears with just a few of Rob Ryan's magic potions? Of course not. But, did we see substantial improvement in certain metrics - with the most important being points allowed? Yes, we did.

In 2010, the team allowed 436 points, or roughly 27.3 points per game. This season, despite no additions of note, the team dropped nearly a touchdown per game to 347 points, 21.7 points per game.

So, yes, I expected more. And yes, we should consider a weak schedule. But, in the end, I think Rob Ryan did as much with the same defense that he was left with as anyone could reasonably be expected to do with no offseason.

What we need to recognize is that he was not given enough to work with. He still had mediocre secondary personnel and one legit pass rusher. Until that changes, bring in any coordinator you want. They may not be as brash as Rob Ryan, but I don't anticipate that they will be able to make this defense elite, either, until some elite players are brought in.

=====

From: "Jeff The Pool Guy"
Date: January 3, 2012 8:16:28 AM CST
To: "Bob Sturm"
Subject: Re: Cowboys blog -

This is good stuff, I am so disheartened with the state of the team. My once great franchise is mired in mediocrity and there is no end in sight. There are so many holes to fill and we have the people that created those holes trying to fill them. I am a huge fan of Romo and believe given the talent around him he would win a championship. Unfortunately I don’t think we will ever know if that is true. Here is my list of people that have to be upgraded.

Spears
Coleman
P. Costa
Holland/Dockery/Nagy
Kosier
B. James
K. Brooking
T. Newman
O. Scandrick
Spencer (This guy should be an animal) Tony Tolbert was a stud with Haley on the other side. Anybody else will make happy here.

So...
All but 2 of the front seven need upgraded and we need another NT to rest an aging Ratliff.
Two of the CB need upgraded and they re-signed the wrong safety.
3/5 of the OL are terrible and the remaining 2 need to swap sides.

There is no way they can accomplish this. Even if they had a good front office. They have too much dead money and not enough draft picks. They need a whole new interior line. that is ridiculous. We are so far from being competitive with the big boys.

The fact that we have Romo covers up so much garbage. He is the reason we pound inferior teams. But when we play a team that can overwhelm our O-line he doesn’t have time to operate. Even against teams that aren't good he has to be a Jedi and avoid the rush to make plays. If we had an average to below average QB we would be 5-11 at best. Parcells was right within a couple of years of his departure it was like he was never there.

I have all but given up. I am still a fan because I love the Team. But I could not be more disgusted with the way things are run around there. I know it won't change, but man I wish it would. I have a sneaky suspicion that we won't have any real success for the next 3-4 years of which will mark the end of Romo's prime. Then we will be bottom feeders again.

Disheartened in Dallas,
Jeff

Wow. That speaks volumes. I have almost no issues with anything he said, and I fear his projections are close to the truth. This proud franchise raised the bar for its fan base for years and years (entire lifetimes for many) and now are showing that same fan base what mediocrity tastes like.

It is tough for the diehards to keep brave faces. And with no change in sight for the way they make their mistakes, one has to wonder when the worm will turn. I wish I had some encouragement, but I really don't right now.

=====

Playoffs:

Here are some quick picks for the games this weekend:

Bengals at Texans: This will be a fun game to watch in the sense that many people will be getting a close look at these two teams for the first time. My initial thoughts are that the Bengals are not ready to win a game like this and that they have an inflated win total based on schedule and luck. Andy Dalton is a great story and his upside seems promising, but to win a road playoff game does not seem likely to me. I realize Houston has their own issues at QB, but I expect that Houston is going to be electric for this 1st playoff appearance ever and I know that defense flies to the ball. I have Houston 24, Bengals 17.

Lions at Saints: Here is another case of a team with an extended absence getting a chance to go to the playoffs. The sky is the limit for the Lions' future, but I still think Matt Stafford has plenty of room to improve (stats people, grab your torches and storm my castle!). His accuracy on the crucial throws still betrays the young lad, and against the Saints in that stadium, missing any throws will get you beat. The Lions have the firepower, but this is a horrible draw for them. If only they were going to New York, I would pick them. In the Superdome, no way. Saints 42, Lions 31.

Falcons at Giants: Great matchup, and this is the game I am really struggling to pick. I believe that you can make a real case for either team here, but I am affected by looking at that Giants front and their pass rush quite a bit in the last few weeks, and they do look like a fine dark-horse to make a run. I think the Falcons are capable, but it will take a big day from their inconsistent passing attack, so I will follow the home field advantage again to this outcome, Giants 27, Falcons 24.

Steelers at Broncos: And now, the game that looks like a real mismatch. Pittsburgh is the 2nd best team in the AFC right now, and the only team besides New England that I can see in the Super Bowl. But, they are damaged by losing Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Clark. I love the Tebow story and am absolutely enjoying following the Broncos story. But, since Von Miller has been injured, the pass rush is not the same. And without pass rush, Roethlisberger can enjoy a big day. I would imagine getting to 20 points will be plenty, so I have to roll with Pittsburgh 26, Denver 14.

Enjoy one of the best weekends of the year. The Playoffs are finally upon us.

Gaglardi Is Now On the Case

2012-01-05T07:46:00.003-06:00

It is always dangerous to look at the standings too early in the season in any league, but especially in the NHL. We gathered around the laptop in November and saw that up was now down. Down was now up. And resources, payroll, and talent levels didn't seem to matter too much to where the team was in the playoff race. Of course, when 15 games are played, things haven't sorted themselves out very far, but the Stars were #1 in the West on November 8th and feeling like a million bucks (or like a $63 million payroll).

There was a sense of great optimism, but the fact that Edmonton and Dallas were tops in the West and Vancouver was near the bottom gave everyone some level of pause about the long grind ahead.

The pace has slowed in Dallas, but everyone had to know that the 22 points in 14 games pace (1.57 per game) was impossible to maintain for any team in hockey. Since then, the Stars have rolled up just 21 points and have played 24 games (.87 per game). That pace will not be enough to find post-season hockey for any squad in the sport.

So where are the Stars as they near the half-way point of 2011-12?

That is the question that I asked their new owner, Tom Gaglardi after his team lost a close game with Detroit on Tuesday.

"I'm not sure yet. It is too soon for me to have an opinion. We have as good a 3rd line as there is in the league. We like our 4th line and they get us some scoring and they spend a lot of time in the other team's zone. Our top 6 just have to be more consistent. It has been frustrating because since our 11-3 start we haven't been able to prolong any win streaks and put some wins together like the good teams do. It's still early, but we got to find some consistency and put some wins together."

And in a moment of clarity, I thought the new owner demonstrated a few things. First, despite being named, "Tom", he has so much more hockey knowledge than any other Stars' owners who have been named "Tom" that it is scary. Whether that is good news or bad news ultimately will depend on what he does with that knowledge.

Second, he hit on maybe the biggest issue with the Stars moving forward. Their "Top 6" is the department on the team that is largely in charge of scoring and power play performance. I might also add to that the top pair of defenseman, but let's just keep talking about the "top 6".

Gaglardi went on to talk about how recently the line with Jamie Benn (10 goals), Michael Ryder (17), and Loui Eriksson (14) has been strong, but the Mike Ribeiro (6) line, with Brenden Morrow (7) and Steve Ott (6) need to show more scoring on a night to night basis. 41 goals for Benn's line and 19 goals for Ribeiro's suggest that you might have the dreaded 1-line team. This, of course, is problematic for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that you are too easy to defend for the opponent.

Nobody would argue that, but perhaps this is where the puck is passed back to the Stars' new owner.

One would make the case that NHL teams build themselves based on the amount of resources that can be used. Since goal scorers are about the most expensive commodity in hockey, teams with very low payrolls have very few gifted scorers. This also applies to franchise-caliber defensemen, something else the Stars lack at this point.

But, something that can be afforded in great supply for any roster is salt-of-the-earth warriors who are perfect checking line guys and will fight in the corner for every puck and give you every thing they have. The Stars have lots and lots of those guys. That is why they are pesky. That is why they can compete with anyone in the league. They have resolve, heart, and battle in great supply. In fact, you could suggest they have at least 6 players who would be perfect for the 3rd line. Vernon Fiddler, Radek Dvorak, Eric Nystrom, Adam Burish, Ott, and Morrow, would all be wonderful 3rd line guys at this point of their careers.

But, how many great "Top 6" scoring wingers do they have? Somewhere between 2 and 3. But, they need at least 4. You could argue that Ott or Morrow are both quite capable of filling one spot, but their offensive zone games are so similar (go to the net, take a beating, battle to the death, score a goal from tight) that it is problematic to put them on the same line around one of the more creative centers to ever pass through town. So, they tried splitting them up earlier in the season and putting RW Ryder with Ribeiro and Morrow, with RW Ott with Jamie and Loui, but that didn't click and it left nobody to take faceoffs when Ribeiro was on the ice (he is a noted poor faceoff man and the Stars have given all of his faceoffs to Ott recently).

So, there is the pickle they are in. The problem is made worse when you note that both specialty teams (Power Play and Penalty Kill) are in the bottom third of the league.

And that ties it all together. What is their best trait? Scrappiness. Peskiness. And overall grit. But, as we saw last season, that can take you a certain distance, but it doesn't leave a whole lot of room for mistakes. Last year, when injuries started taking their toll, the Stars lost some ground in which they were never able to fully recover. They seem to be stretched so thin because of the Hicks regime reducing resources to a drip.

And that is why Gaglardi's job is clear and vital. Turn that faucet of cash on. Nobody means to spend freely and without strategy, but it will require some bold moves when they are available. The Ducks are in the news for suggesting that everything is priced to move with their shattered season. Normally, you would laugh at the idea of the Ducks and Stars doing anything, but with new realignment, the Ducks are no longer rivals. If they are looking to move top-end pricey talent, I wouldn't waste a moment in picking up the phone. Ryan Getzlaf is available? He may be a center, but he is 26 and a monster. I think I would make room. Heck, I might be able to talk myself into 26-year old Corey Perry to play the wing with Ribeiro.

The beauty with either of those players would be that they address your long term needs of talent that is still young (as would Bobby Ryan). The Stars are actually a bit old and as many players as they have under 25 who contribute, they also have a large number of regulars that are well past their 30th birthday. These are all things for Joe Nieuwendyk to consider as they move forward.

In talking with several NHL personnel people in the last few days, it is clear that the Stars have very promising futures with Benn and Eriksson. Every team would love to add them, but a quick dose of reality also returns that nobody who I spoke with placed Benn or Eriksson in the Top 7 forwards in the Pacific Division. They unanimously returned the names of Kopitar, Thornton, Perry, Getzlaf, Pavelski, Richards, and Ryan before listing Dallas' top forwards. Doesn't mean that someday soon Benn won't pass them, but for now, the Stars have Top 10 forwards in their own division, but nobody would say Top 5. With simple math (6 divisions) that would place the Stars best amongst the ranks 31-60 in the NHL at the forward position if all divisions have similar talent (they likely do not).

Patience is needed right now. The Stars will continue to battle on the ice as strategies are hatched. There is a chance that no bold strikes will happen until summer. Then, it will be Gaglardi and Nieuwendyk's job to sell UFA's on the idea of coming here which is never easy when competing with "Original 6" teams.

But, know this: After spending 30 minutes talking hockey with the man, which you can hear by clicking here, it seems clear to know that not only is the owner thinking about these very topics, he is also obsessed with figuring it out. He will make changes, but he will also think them through carefully and deliberately.

But most importantly, they will be on his mind.

And previous owners cannot compete with that attribute. Even though there is plenty of work to do, there is reason for great optimism yet again for this organization.

Charity Challenge 6 - 2004

2012-01-04T18:14:00.006-06:00

Fun with scanning pictures of another titanic battle with Team Musers and Gen X Davey Lane.

Tell Uncle Rico I said, "Hi".

Decoding Garrett - Week 16 - Data - At New York

2012-01-03T19:53:00.005-06:00

The Cowboys seasons have ended in somewhat similar fashion over the last several years. Admittedly, the records have been different and the details do vary some, but it seems that invariably, when the season does end, it ends in a way that is reminiscent
of Cowboys' failures past.

Since Tony Romo's bobbled hold in Seattle, each subsequent season ender was decided with the Cowboys offense looking at its lineman as a major culprit and what should be a major objective moving forward.

In 2007, it was an offensive line that did not hold up in the 4th Quarter against a strong Giants' front. Most damaging indictment was on the game's final play that the go-to receiver, Jason Witten, was forced to stay in and help block so Tony Romo was not sacked to end the season. In the aftermath, concerns of the offensive line were everywhere.

In 2008, losing 3 out of 4 in the month of December ended a tumultuous year. Down the stretch, with losses in Pittsburgh, at home against Baltimore, and at Philadelphia, the line crumbled again. Before December, the Cowboys allowed the 8th fewest sacks in the league. But after December 1, no team in the NFL allowed more sacks than the Cowboys did (13). The concerns with the offensive line where there for all to see.

IN 2009, the Cowboys had a wonderful year along the offensive line. Without question, it was the finest year of pass protection and run production the organization has had in the last decade. All went according to plan until they advanced to play the strong front of the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome in the divisional round of the playoffs. 6 sacks later, the Cowboys were bruised, beaten, and eliminated. Anyone who watched that game would be hard pressed to suggest the Cowboys line did their job very well.

In 2010, the breakdown happened earlier in the season, with Tennessee sacking Romo 6 times as once again Marc Colombo and Leonard Davis looked old and slow. 2 weeks later, Romo was lost for the season as the Giants were able to slam him to the turn and break his collarbone. Any doubt about the OL's pass protection ability was difficult to confirm with sack totals, because they only allowed 31 the whole season. But, observers started to see that Jason Garrett was continuing to alter these totals with play calling. Short passes, many behind the line of scrimmage, were his best remedy for pass protection breakdowns. If Romo (or his healthy QB) could get rid of the ball before his OL was beaten, they could keep any stretchers from being needed.

And in 2011, with the season on the line, the season collapsed again in December. The team was 7-4 entering the final month of the year and had allowed only 20 sacks in 11 games. At times, it was preventive play calling and at other times, the offensive line started to show that it was getting better with many new, young components. Tyron Smith, Phil Costa, and Bill Nagy were now starters and team put an incredible amount of faith and belief in their ability to protect and form holes for the running game.

But, then came December, where only the Chicago Bears allowed more sacks to their QBs than the Cowboys allowed. 19 sacks in 5 games (and countless others escaped by Romo), and a running game that plummeted to 25th in the league due to an injury to DeMarco Murray and the line unable to get a push against the tough lines in New York and Arizona.

It is the same old situation at the moment of truth. An offensive line that does not protect and serve, but rather an offensive line that prevents the offense from having enough time and space to get the ball to its difference makers. One shudders to think what Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith would have been able to accomplish if Tony Romo's offensive lines were to replace the fabulous lines of the 1990s.

Nowhere is this more apparent than against familiar divisional foes, especially on the road. In 8 home games, the Cowboys allowed 11 sacks. In 8 road games, they suffered 28. And now that we established the problems in December and the problems on the road, we understand how tough it is going to be when they have to play a December game on the road against the New York Giants.

A few weeks ago, we discussed at great length the "game plan for road games" that Jason Garrett has used. I encourage you to review that piece that originally ran after the game at Arizona. Since 2008, when the Cowboys face a road test against an opponent with a notable defensive front, Garrett enters the game with very little faith in his line (for obvious reasons). He then attempts to protect them by calling almost no run plays (save for shotgun runs on 3rd and long to get his punter some space) and no pass plays that require time and protection. It is a series of quick outs, screens, dump downs, and a passing offense that cannot stretch the field.

This actually can work, but only if the team stays on schedule. If it ever gets into a 2nd or 3rd and long (which will happen often), then he has no choice but to ask his protection to hold up so that the Cowboys can move the chains. This risks his QB to taking another beating and invites blitzes and stunts to expose the line yet again. The Cowboys switch to almost exclusively shotgun, and the defense can then replace its run stoppers with more cover guys and Romo's job gets even more difficult.

Garrett tried 5 traditional runs on Sunday from under center in the entire game. Five. And then, because the score had tilted against him at 14-0, the only other run play from under center tried for the remaining 3 quarters was the horrible QB sneak in the 4th Quarter that never had a chance. Basically, the Cowboys OL never fired forward the entire night. They backed up in retreat as they attempted to keep the crumbling pocket alive for another second.

So, given the cycle of repetition we are seeing year after year, where the offense can go as far as the line can take them, we can debate whether Garrett should show more faith in his offensive line or if he is just doing what should be done with his play calling. But, what can't be argued (I wouldn't think) is that the Cowboys must continue to make the OL its top priority. They are wasting the prime of a difficult to find QB who can play at a very high level by not providing him the protection in key moments like many of the successful QBs in this league enjoy.

Put another way, it appears you can have all of the skill players in the world assembled, but unless you can figure out a way to protect your QB, it won't matter.

Data from Week 16 at New York

Run-Pass	15-44
1st Down Run-Pass	7-21
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.88
2nd Down Run-Pass	5-13
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.58
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-10
3rd Down Conversions	4-12, 33%

HTML Tables

From a play calling standpoint, despite wanting balance in the offense of run/pass, it is clear that in similar road settings (at New England, at Philadelphia, at Arizona, at New York) the Cowboys abandon the run in the 1st Quarter. Regardless of score, there is no reason a team cannot stick to their game plan better unless they realize they have no chance to run the ball in running situations.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-At Tampa - 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 15-Philadelphia - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 16-At New York - 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	0	1-0	0-0
12	4	13	1-1	3-12
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	3	2	1--1	2-3
22	3	9	3-9	0-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	2	4	0-0	2-4
S11	45	259	9-44	36-215
S12	1	8	0-0	1-8
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	59	295	15-53	44-242

Table Tutorial

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	0	1-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	1	-8	0-0	1--8	0/0
S11	11	38	2-14	9-24	4/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	13	30	3-14	10-16	4/0

Table Tutorial

Just look at how bad the offense was on 3rd Down when the pass protection is most vital. 10 passes for a total of 16 yards is horrendous. If you want one explanation, it is because Tony Romo knows he will not have a chance to go through his reads without a large defensive end trying to put him in the hospital. His eye level is down making sure he doesn't get blindsided instead of seeing his receivers down field. And it is tough to blame him too much.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58
Wk 14-TB 26/67
Wk 15-Phi 39/66
Wk 16-NYG 48/59

Total - 445/1012 43.9%

As you can see, the Cowboys were as one dimensional as it gets. Lots of shotgun is never good for a team. It usually says it is the final chance and they are well behind in the game. Last time the Cowboys ran so much shotgun? When Jacksonville crushed them in 2010.

==================

Next week, we will publish the season totals and look at things from a larger perspective for the 2011 campaign.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

The Morning After: Giants 31, Cowboys 14 (8-8)

2012-01-02T07:37:00.005-06:00

Anytime there is a full and complete collapse - such as going 1-4 to finish the season - it would be much too simplistic to single one portion of an organization for ridicule and public identification.

Rather, for the 2011 Dallas Cowboys, we must look in all sorts of directions. And we must wonder, after a very disappointing 8-8 campaign, how long things will continue in this general direction before the Cowboys can break out of this franchise-worst drought of playoff futility and return to its formerly usual spot with the heavyweights of the NFL.

Once upon a time, the Cowboys organization set the pace for excellence in the league. Playoff regulars and a team that amassed division titles, playoff wins, and Super Bowls for much of the first 35 years of its existence has now hit such a drastic wall that nearly every fan of the team can recite the horrible facts:

In 15 years, the Cowboys have 1 wildcard playoff victory. One. That's one more than the Muncie Flyers and the Canton Bulldogs, but given that those teams folded shortly after World War 1, that would clearly not be a very large consolation.

The Cowboys have hit the wall of resistance nearly every season at a similar time. Usually right around the holidays is where the Cowboys take a promising start and wither under the bright lights of the holiday season, as it did in 2011. Dallas was 7-4 after Thanksgiving and looking ahead at a December that included 2 games against very poor teams (Arizona and Tampa Bay) and 3 divisional wars, with 2 of those games on their home field in Arlington.

And yet, a 1-4 finish has the fan base as frustrated as ever that once again their team cannot put together results at the time of year where teams either load up for a title run or go home with tears streaming down their face. This Cowboys team is going to need a lot of tissue.

So, where does one properly place the blame? One could easily suggest the better question is where does one NOT place the blame?

The Dallas Cowboys organization has not passed the test yet again for a myriad of reasons. And, with all due respect to Emmitt Smith, mental toughness is well down the line. Emmitt might think that mental toughness is the sole explanation for a team not rising to the occasion in a place like New York like he did in 1993, but, Emmitt played on a team that had many Hall of Fame caliber players and depth that amazed any observer. Mental toughness is a great tie-breaker when talent is equal, but in this space, the premise is that the Cowboys have some very impressive top end talent, but not nearly enough strength on their roster to win a game like the contest that was asked of them on Sunday Night in New York.

There is a theory around these parts that Tony Romo has a bad December record. This would make sense if he was playing tennis or golf, but in football it doesn't compute. Yet, he will deal with the blame again. The reason for this is that it is an easy narrative that allows people (even national "experts") to simplify an extremely complex conversation down to one talking point that can be easily shared at a water cooler with coworkers. In football, that usually means that one either blames the coach, the quarterback, or both. And while they should certainly share the blame for another failure, there is no way that they should bear full responsibility for yet another Cowboys mess. Not even close.

This team fails in December for one primary and simple reason: The roster doesn't contain the quality personnel that is required to sustain the assaults of a 16-game campaign in the NFL.

Think about it: When does the team fail? December. In a 4-month season, which month would best reveal your depth and quality down the roster that can compensate for fatigue and injuries? December. The truth is that the Cowboys have enough talent on the top of their roster to compete with some of the best teams in the league. Romo, Ware, Witten, Austin, Ratliff are a very solid "Top 5". Bryant, Lee, Murray, Smith, and Jenkins are a reasonable 6-10 on a roster. But, then the drop-off begins on the roster. And if the season was just 8-10 games long, they would likely be able to hang in there. Any Cowboys historian will confirm that the team certainly gets to Thanksgiving in great shape nearly every season. So, what changes? Is it really that turning the calendar to the month of December is what makes a magical spell fall over Romo and the team where they can no longer compete?

Good teams in the NFL have quality from 1-10, but also from 11-53, too. When fatigue strikes Jay Ratliff, they have a player behind him who can bridge the gap. If Ware is being double-teamed, someone else can rise up. When the line is under siege, a solid veteran can do a reasonable job and protect his QB. The good teams have enough quality on their roster that they can construct a solid team effort for the regular season. Sure, they count on their stars to perform, but beyond that, there are starters and reserves that never find a magazine cover that do their job admirably.

December is when we find an offensive line that cannot allow Romo time to throw. Last night, the Giants drove the Cowboys OL back into their QB again and again. And why would this surprise anyone? The Eagles did, too. So did the Cardinals. And the Giants 3 weeks ago. As a unit, the Cowboys OL failed again. And to show you their contributions as attrition took its toll, the Cowboys allowed 6 sacks in September, 9 in October, 5 in November, and 19 in December.

6 sacks last night in the biggest game of the season matches all of the sacks allowed in 2 other months of the season. Simple explanations will smirk at another Romo failure, but anyone who follows the NFL knows that teams don't win if they get sacked 6 times. The league is 8-49 in the last 3 seasons when a QB is sacked that often. 14% win percentage says all you need to know.

It would sure be great to blame injuries for the OL breaking down, but that would be difficult to do. The team had perfect health at tackle this season, and the interior of the line was ignored by the GM all season. Most NFL observers would suggest that the Cowboys OL was exactly what they thought it would be. Poor. It offered the team an inconsistent running game and horrendous pass protection as the season built to its climax.

And, then there is the defense. A change of coordinators and schemes disguised the truth for a period of time. But in the end, we see the truth again: The personnel on the defense has some top-side talent (Ware, Ratliff, and Lee) but not enough to compensate for a unit that has weaknesses in many other spots. Putting tape on a shot-gun wound will cause many to blame Rob Ryan, but I would love to see what coordinator could make sense of what he was given. No offseason. No upgrades. No help from the draft. No expenditures. Just take the worst defense in franchise history and fix it with your magical formula. Good luck, Rob.

The truth appears to be this: The Cowboys have relied on those trusted top end players for years and have seen the same results - good seasons, but generally no years that have been good enough. The premise that Romo, Ware, Ratliff, and Witten can drag this team up and down the field with so many passengers is just nonsense. The title contenders in this league are not 5-strong. They are 53-strong.

Look at this history of Cowboys draft picks sometime. You will see the horrible truth that Bill Parcells and his crew put the top of this roster in place. And the rest of the roster is a product of his last draft (his worst) and every draft since. The sum total of the 2006-2011 drafts right now on this roster is minimal. The should be the spine of the roster. Instead, here is what the last 6 drafts have yielded that were present and accounted for last night in New York:

2006: Jason Hatcher (edit 1/3)
2007: Anthony Spencer, Doug Free, Alan Ball
2008: Felix Jones, Mike Jenkins, Martellus Bennett, Orlando Scandrick
2009: Stephen McGee, Victor Butler, John Phillips
2010: Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, Sean Lissemore
2011: Tyron Smith

48 picks. And I just put a list together of 7 starters and 7 reserves. Many are disappointments and have never come close to reaching their potential. But, when you have 53 players on your roster and 22 "starters" you simply must do better than this. None of these 48 picks have threatened to knock Ratliff, Ware, Romo, Witten, or Austin out of their perches at the top of the roster yet. Lee, Smith, and Bryant may soon. DeMarco Murray shouldn't be forgotten. But, Spencer, Jones, Jenkins, and Bennett are all disappointments from where they were taken in the draft.

This is not a Tony Romo, Jason Garrett, or Rob Ryan issue. They should share in the blame, but this largely remains a Jerry Jones issue. He has built a stadium that can host a Super Bowl. But he sure hasn't built a roster that can play in one.

Players play. Coaches coach. And the General Manager is fully responsible to make sure his team is 53-strong. Playing a Giants team in a winner-take-all scenario on Sunday Night revealed a similar result that a showdown with the Eagles in 2008 and the Vikings in 2009 demonstrated: This organization is a long way from being where their fans are used to being back in the glory days.

The GM thought that Phil Costa and Derrick Dockery could hold off the Giants front after believing that Bill Nagy and Montrae Holland were the answers. The GM thought that Keith Brooking and Bradie James could patrol the middle of the field and that Anthony Spencer could get to the QB in a game that mattered. The GM thought Terence Newman still had it and that no real personnel upgrades were required on that defense in the offseason.

And he was wrong again.

Are you tired of hearing that Jerry the owner should fire Jerry the GM and overhaul how this team selects its players? You should be. Despite a few respites when Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells selected players (neither of which were perfect, but check their batting averages), Jerry and his crew have failed to assemble anything more than a team that rides its few star players right into the ground as they try to navigate around the replacement-level players that Jerry has assembled at every other spot on the roster.

He is banking on you blaming Ryan, Romo, and Garrett again. And he is banking on you buying $340 tickets again next season.

It will be interesting to see if or when the public will have had enough of his fantasy camp routine. Yes, it is his toy. But, much like a restaurant owner that wants to be chef, he will still need people to eat his meals.

This franchise is broken and it is not getting better. Another showdown against a beatable division rival showed you all you should need to see. Assuming the last 15 years didn't already provide enough evidence.

X's and O's Breakdown - The Twist Stunt

2011-12-29T07:58:00.007-06:00

According to NFL Statistics, the Dallas Cowboys are right about at the league average when it comes to preventing sacks. This season, the Cowboys have allowed 33 sacks on their QB, with the league average being 35 for the season. As a point of reference, Buffalo and Tennessee lead the league with just 21 sacks against, and St Louis and Arizona are the league worst, allowing their poor QBs to be sacked 52 times each. It has not been fun to be Sam Bradford.

But, there are so many reasons to ignore this statistic as a rule. I hear people all the time trying to suggest the Cowboys are a strong team in pass protection because they don't allow that many sacks. But that doesn't account for many items that cause sacks allowed to be misleading.

Such as, how many sacks is the QB saving with his mobility? How many 3 and 5 step drops are being called by offensive coordinator because he doesn't trust protection? How many RBs and TEs are staying in to help out OL because of fear of the OL's ability to be able to hold the pocket?

None of these considerations are found when we discuss sack totals, but all of them affect the number. If the object of the game is to prevent sacks, it would be easy for a coach to avoid almost all of them. But, the object of the game is to score as many points as possible, and that can usually only be done by risking your QB on occasion. Max protection can often keep your QB clean, but it dramatically reduces the chances for your receivers to cause coverage issues for the defense. Only 2 players in route? Way to easy to bracket with corners and safeties over the top. A truly difficult offense to handle has 4-5 targets out in route on most passing plays. They spread you out, invite a blitz, and then burn you quickly.

Which brings us to our breakdown from the Philadelphia game - a play that on the official game sheet reads like this, "(9:57) (Shotgun) T.Romo pass incomplete short middle to M.Austin [J.Babin]. Pass incomplete on crossing pattern; Hughes closest defender at the Philadelphia 45."

That's right. What could have been the most pivotal play of the season for the Dallas Cowboys has almost no statistical bearing whatsoever.

It reminds you of this play from 2010: "(12:20) T.Romo pass short left to M.Austin to NYG 29 for 14 yards (T.Thomas) [M.Boley]. DAL-T.Romo was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass complete on comeback curl.

That, of course, was the play where Tony Romo was lost for the year due to Chris Gronkowski not reading and picking up a blitz from Michael Boley. Romo's collarbone was broken, and 2010 was completely gone down the tubes.

This demonstrates 2 important truths. 1) Sacks only cover a fraction of pass protection and 2) The Season can be rocked from its foundation on any play of the season if you get your QB hit too hard.

Click Here to see full video of this play.

Let's analyze this play from the perspective of the Philadelphia Eagles. First, they realize that Sammy Morris is in charge of blitz pickup on 3rd Downs. This is a far cry from Felix Jones or DeMarco Murray. They have been in Dallas since training camp and getting familiar with all of Dallas' protection concepts since installation. Morris was signed off the street a few weeks ago, and while most running plays are easy for him to comprehend, complex protection situations will be the last to come along.

Next, the Eagles surely have studied how Arizona sacked Tony Romo 5 times. Those sacks came off multiple attacks of Phil Costa and the interior of the Dallas OL. Not necessarily his anchor issues (which are substantial), but rather his awareness and ability to see something in pre-snap, but then adjust at the last second to an ambush blitz. Stunts and blitzes are starting to overwhelm him, and the Eagles are smart enough to see that trend and mimic it.

So, look at the picture at the top of the blog. The Eagles are showing Jason Babin-93 out wide of Tyron Smith at RT again in his "wide 9" technique. The possibilities of them taking a player this wide and stunting him all the way to the opposite "A" gap (between Costa and LG Holland) seems so remote and ridiculous that I highly doubt the Cowboys even considered it a concern.

Then, look at the safety 26-Jarrett start deep and then creep to the outside of Babin. This will be the focus of Sammy Morris on blitz pick up, and will occupy all of his attention. Thus, now the Eagles have a 3 on 3 situation. They will take 50-Matthews (MLB) and 98-Patterson (DT) and send them both away from center. Matthews will attack the RG (Kosier) and Patterson will attack the RT (Smith). This occupies them and leaves Babin to swing all the way around their backs. But, he won't dive inside Costa to his right shoulder, because Costa is already headed that way to get Matthews.

Instead, as the 2nd picture clearly reveals, Babin shows his insane athleticism and heads to the left side of Costa. Costa must hear Kosier or Smith call out this stunt and then slide over to Babin. If it is covered correctly, Costa slides to Babin, Kosier slides to Matthews, and Smith still has Patterson.

That same picture shows Kosier is falling backwards, so if Costa does leave Matthews, then Casey will get to Romo, but it won't be with as much speed or size as Babin. Costa has to leave his guy and get the unblocked sack leader. It is highly possible the blame falls to Smith for not calling out what is going on, but you can understand at the NFL game, audio alerts are certainly not fool-proof in loud stadiums.

And now, below, you see the horrible result. How Romo stays relatively healthy after this hit is truly a smile from the football gods.

And there you see the issues involved with pass protection. You tip your cap to the Eagles for finding a concept that gets a free run on Romo, and you try to make sure it doesn't happen again. Trouble is, a few plays later, with McGee in the game, a similar stunt from Trent Cole runs right by Costa and hits McGee in the mouth, too. Teams are attacking the middle with great regularity now that they see it is a tough spot for the Cowboys to defend.

And today, in a dark room, the Giants are looking at this play and taking careful notes.

Decoding Garrett - Week 15 - Data - Philadelphia

2011-12-28T09:00:00.006-06:00

When a team decides to throw its game-plan in a trash can and allow its 3rd string QB and 5th string RB to play the rest of the game against a divisional opponent that appears to be playing hard, well, there is just very little we can draw from it in terms of learning about the Dallas Cowboys offense.

Instead, it allows us once again to reflect on the importance of the Quarterback position in the National Football League. We all know how important it is to have one of the good QBs in the league, but perhaps we again saw it come into focus on Saturday. One twist stunt blitz from the Eagles defense and Tony Romo was knocked out of the game by Jason Babin.

That speaks about 2 things: 1) that teams are attacking the interior of the Cowboys offensive line and we should expect more and more of that until Phil Costa and whoever is playing guard next to him demonstrate an ability to sort through the confusion quick enough to pick up the right guy (and at the very least don't let one of the best pass rushers in the sport hit your QB untouched). And 2) how fragile this whole house of cards is for every team in the league. You might be rolling along nicely in your season and one snap later it is laying in a pile on the turf and your year is in the trash bin.

A team must find a QB it can get production from and then use all of its resources to keep it upright. And the Cowboys flirted with disaster in a giant way against the Eagles and it looks like they may have lived to talk about it. We shall see if Romo can be effective on Sunday night at Met Life Stadium in New York.

Meanwhile, let us reflect for just a moment on what we were forced to breakdown from Saturday. Here is a list of games in the "Romo Era" (2006 to present) where the Cowboys had fewer than 240 total yards in a game and the results. Please pay special attention to the QB who was on the job in each situation:

Date	Opponent	Total Yards	QB
12/24/11	L Phil	238	McGee
11/07/10	L GB	205	Kitna
11/02/08	L NY	183	Johnson
10/26/08	W TB	172	Johnson
12/30/07	L Wash	147	Johnson
12/25/06	L Phil	201	Romo

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As a point of comparison, there were 20 such games between December, 2000 and 2006 (or between Aikman's last game and Romo's first). So, the fact that there have only been 6 games in the last 6 seasons and 5 of them was when Romo was hurt does again speak volumes about the importance of having a QB and then having an offensive line that allows him to do what he does.

I have always had optimism about Stephen McGee as a prospect for the squad. Part of it is founded in being amazed at his toughness and magnetism as a QB in the college ranks and part of it is hoping the Cowboys did not waste another premium draft pick when they took him as the top pick of the 4th Round in the 2009 draft.

But, aside from demonstrating arm strength for the NFL level, it has been hard to see reasons why the Cowboys should stop shopping for an understudy and potential successor to Romo in Dallas. McGee plays a very conservative style of QB with constant check downs and allows the defense to creep closer and closer to the line of scrimmage which makes his check downs even less productive. A theory would be that he has been coached to not show aggression when he is called into a game but rather drive the bus carefully between the curbs and just don't throw interceptions. If that is how he is being coached, then he is doing that well, but that is not helping his stock around the league as a QB prospect of note.

I assume the Cowboys know what they have there, and either they will make him a clear #2 in 2012 or they will cut him loose and begin the process again. Because McGee's contract will come due soon and at that point you will have to have a clear feeling on what you have this many years into his career. It did speak volumes that the Cowboys left camp feeling they still needed Jon Kitna in 2011, despite Kitna having lost his ability to throw the ball down the field and to the sidelines years ago.

Anyway, 238 yards will seldom win anything in the NFL and the Cowboys can thank the injury gods for having mercy on Romo's hand.

Here is the data from Week 15:

First, the Quarterback throw chart. Blue shows completions, red are incompletions, and yellow touchdowns. This week's chart is a bit different, because we have a few Romo throws (black) and everything else will be Stephen McGee throws. Also, I left last week's chart below for anyone that has a hard time appreciating the starting QB around here, they can compare back and forth.

QB vs Philadelphia

QB at Tampa Bay

As you can see, the depth of the throws may not be as different as you might think. It is the accuracy and the quick decision making. McGee still really struggles to pull the trigger when he is in the middle of the play, whereas a veteran QB knows what he wants to do as he is dropping back. Way too many red throws that close the line of scrimmage for McGee against the Eagles.

Data from Week 15 vs Philadelphia

Run-Pass	23-43
1st Down Run-Pass	12-14
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.95
2nd Down Run-Pass	9-12
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.82
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-15
3rd Down Conversions	6-17, 35%

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This shows you how bad the Cowboys offense can do when it gets behind schedule. Not since Week 7 at Philadelphia have the Cowboys done such a poor job on 1st Down where they faced 8.95 yards to go on their 21 2nd down situations. Then, they barely improved their spot by 3rd Down where they had to deal with 8.82 in 17 3rd Down situations. This makes you 1-dimensional, predictable, and highly susceptible to blitz situations. A very poor combination.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

Not much can be learned from Saturday's data here, either. The Cowboys started their 1st 2 drives with runs to Felix Jones, but after that, there is no discernible pattern about their intentions.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-At Tampa - 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 15-Philadelphia - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Total: 169 Drives - 75 Run/94 Pass 44% Run

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	-8	1--8	0-0
12	9	38	6-15	3-23
13	2	8	1-4	1-4
21	6	-1	4-8	2--9
22	9	50	8-37	1-13
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	8	32	0-0	8-32
S11	26	108	3-24	23-84
S12	5	11	0-0	5-11
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	66	238	23-80	43-158

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Some amazingly unproductive results from the "under center" offense in this game. I have to believe the Giants will not even look at this film as the Cowboys had all of the conviction that they would in a game in mid-August.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	-8	1--8	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	0	1-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	4	21	0-0	4-21	1/0
S11	8	63	0-0	8-63	3/0
S12	3	11	0-0	3-11	1/0
Totals	17	87	2--8	15-95	5/0

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SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58
Wk 14-TB 26/67
Wk 15-Phi 39/66

Total - 397/953 41.6%

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Overall a very difficult game to look at, but the Cowboys clearly did not have any regard for the game, so we shouldn't either. It is all or nothing in Game #16.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

The Shaky Lines Again Determine Fate Of Cowboys

2011-12-27T10:45:00.002-06:00

With Week 17 upon them, the Cowboys are left to nurse their wounds and prepare for the game that will determine their narrative for 2011. After 15 games, some of them of the most excruciating variety, the Dallas Cowboys find themselves at a fork in the road that could take memories of this season in either direction when we look back at it.

It could include a divisional crown - albeit in a rather flimsy division this year - that will also be rewarded with a home playoff game against an opponent that will be beatable and from there who knows? Or, it will be a season in which the Cowboys lose the division by losing 4 of the final 5 games of the season and flunking the test by every metric available in their first full season under head coach Jason Garrett.

And while some will fixate on Tony Romo's role in determining this outcome (and his cumulative record in the month of December) or the obvious ability for the secondary to show they can at least slow down Eli Manning, in this spot, let's consider another alternative determining factor in this game and the season as a whole.

The offensive and defensive lines will once again decide whether the Cowboys have made adequate progress from where they have been to where they want to go.

And while that is not tantalizing enough to stimulate the networks to even discuss it - surely, there is another Romo or Jerry Jones debate we can run into the ground, right? - the fact remains that the Cowboys once won championships because they were the superior team at the line of scrimmage. And here, for years, this organization has not properly built an offensive or defensive line that requires an inordinate amount of concern for their opponents from week to week.

With one game to play, we are left to review the job of the team to assemble these units and we find that once again the organization seems to undervalue the "big uglies".

Why else would they leave camp with the idea that Phil Costa, an undrafted center entering his 2nd year, and Bill Nagy, a 7th round rookie, were capable of starting in the NFL? Nobody would debate the wisdom of turning over the offensive line as last year's crew was far below a passable grade for a line that had so much salary invested, but to replace them with unregarded and untested kids who never "won" a job rather than simply being handed it is certainly befuddling. The responses are always that Marc Colombo and Leonard Davis needed to be replaced. And that is absolutely true. But, only if you have a proper understudy who is ready. And while Colombo has been switched out for a rookie in Tyron Smith who looks the part of a regular for the next decade, he is the only young lineman who has demonstrated the ability to play at even an "average" level of performance.

The rest of the kids; Costa, Nagy, Kevin Kowalski, and David Arkin are not ready to provide anything above replacement level performance. Costa is the regular from the group, and profootballfocus.com has him rated as the 31st best regular center in the NFL. Overall, his performance level has been unacceptable all year, and much of that can be attributed to the Cowboys putting way too much on his young plate before he was ready. Nagy's unfortunate leg injury in New England resulted in the Cowboys signing Montrae Holland - a player they had cut a month earlier - from off the street and he immediately improved the overall play of the offensive line. Kowalski seems to be a reasonable reserve option, but as another un-drafted free agent rookie, needs time in the weight room to grow to evaluate whether he can make a living at this level. And that leaves Arkin, who the Cowboys invested a 4th Round pick in this past April (which makes him easily the most regarded of the 4). The rookie guard has yet to even be active for a game in his 1st year in the league. Given the needs at guard this year, that reality seems to speak rather loudly about his current state of performance.

So, when the OL is being tossed around by New England, Philadelphia, New York, or even Arizona, one must recognize that the Cowboys did much of this to themselves. Did they need a shakeup from the 2010 crew? Yes. Did they need to try to replace 3 of the 5 starters at the same time with nothing available but a batch of rookies who were almost completely unregarded besides Smith? And now, with the season hanging in the balance, they must face the formidable Giants front with Holland now out. This brings on Derrick Dockery, who the Cowboys opted for over Brian Waters back in September, to save the day at Left Guard.

Basically, they took a unit that was substandard in 2010 and did not add a single veteran until the regular season had started at which they signed two older players who were on the street. They cut 4 veterans and replaced them with undrafted free agents. And we wonder why the unit is in shambles in late December?

The defensive line took a group that last year looked to Jay Ratliff to make most of their plays and as a unit also needed an injection of change. They lost Stephen Bowen to Washington and beyond that brought back almost the exact same group. They did change out one spare part in Igor Olshansky for a low investment in the veteran Kenyon Coleman. It is a group of bodies that occasionally make a play, but more than anything they lean hard on Ratliff week after week for any real impact.

And when Eli Manning goes back to pass 50 times in a game, the Cowboys often look to DeMarcus Ware to provide any and all of their sacks. They certainly have the right to ask more of Anthony Spencer, but from the investment in their defensive line, they are receiving roughly what they invested in it. Very little.

That is the point to this all. As the networks will discuss Romo and Garrett, and as the Cowboys offer another long-term contract to a defensive back or wide receiver, the franchise seems to pay too little attention to what most football lifers will tell you is the most important department on a team - the lines.

And now, in the most important game of the year, they will enter a division battle against a beatable team, but one that will be more likely to run the ball and protect their QB. Also, the Giants will be more likely to get sacks and plug holes on defense, too.

Win or lose, for the advancement of the franchise, perhaps we should spend less time on the lazy narratives and focus more on the guys that matter up front. For this team to truly return to the top of the league, they will need to get their lines fixed. And that will take both time and money.

We return you now to the previously scheduled discussion about the QB's record in December.

Time to Start Anew

2011-12-22T08:34:00.001-06:00

It was properly pointed out to me yesterday that the Rangers and Mavericks, while both having the most successful years in their franchise's history, look at the upcoming "Opening Days" in their respective sports with entirely different viewpoints.

From a Rangers' viewpoint, they aspire to get 2012 going as soon as possible in an effort to go get what they feel is rightfully theirs. However large the odds are, you can understand the premise of thinking 2010 and 2011 need to be avenged and the only way to do that is to actually WIN the World Series this summer. Pretty high bar, but I already know baseball fans who are chomping at the bit to get after it. That is what finishing 2nd for 2 consecutive years will do to a fan.

But, the Mavericks view seems a bit different. At least from a fan perspective on the radio airwaves, it seems that the new season is not wildly anticipated. You wonder, in the minds of those fans who so badly wanted the NBA title last season, if given a choice Mavericks fans might vote to have the offseason go even longer before having to put that heavyweight title belt back in play.

It is fun being champion, but while the defense of that cherished crown officially begins on Sunday, many can't help but grimace at the thought of the title being somewhat conceded when the Mavericks brass decided to pass on the Tyson Chandler sweepstakes.

I know, I know. Lamar Odom is here. Vince Carter (gulp) is here. Heck, even Delonte West is here (you cannot write this stuff). But, if I am going to trumpet the title being largely due to dynamic attributes that Chandler brought to the table and his undeniable fingerprints on the Larry O'Brien trophy, then I think it would be beyond foolish to then argue that his exit will not be felt at the very core of what made this team special.

And that is why statistics cannot fully be trusted when you try to articulate what he meant to the Mavericks title. 10 points and 9 rebounds? Nice, but hardly irreplaceable. And yet, as the Mavericks enter the new year, I am convinced that the team is trying to find a plug for a irreplaceable hole. He was that important.

Protecting the rim. Attacking the rim. Calling a team meeting. Picking up a teammate. Sticking up for another. Giving everyone in his team's jersey muscles they didn't have when he wasn't around. Maybe the best example of how great he was here was on full display in the NBA Finals. Brendan Haywood left the finals in Game 2 with an injured hip. He did not play in Game 3, 5, or 6, and played just 3 minutes in Game 4. This put the team in an enormous pickle, especially given the number of times that Wade and Lebron attack the rim. No backup center? Chandler had to remain aggressive in his defense of the paint, but he also had to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor. That was a very tall order as guys who are trying to avoid foul trouble seldom can maintain their aggressive style. Tyson did it on the biggest stage and did it very, very well. Certainly he did not get the headlines from that series that some of his mates did, but his impact was clear to all around the series.

I don't believe Mark Cuban or Donnie Nelson would debate Chandler's impact to the title. Everyone knows what he meant to the squad, especially them. But, when it came time to marry their 2011 championship roster through 2015 or "keep the powder dry" under the new collective bargaining agreement, they opted for the latter. We will only know if they made the right call in a few years. Actually, maybe we will never truly know, because we can only guess what the 2011 Mavericks would have been able to do in defense of their own crown. Instead, Chandler is in New York. JJ Barea is in Minnesota (also not offered a long-term deal). And DeShawn Stevenson is off to New Jersey.

But, they are banking on having all of the cap space in the world available and thus will be able to go shopping at the finest stores in free agency this summer. One can only hope that the stores aren't all sold out of franchise players when the Mavericks arrive with a full wallet on July 1st. That is the gamble they are willing to take, so it is certainly a reasonable plan to let them prove they were correct to follow their guts. They certainly did not take the easy path at this fork in the road. I can't imagine anyone would have questioned them for bringing Chandler and Barea back. But, not bringing them back sets them up for 2nd guessing for at least 7 months and possibly years and years.

Meanwhile, the franchise embarks on one of the remaining years of Dirk Nowitzki's prime with a team that can be anywhere between pretty good and really good. Anyone who can project what losing Chandler, Stevenson, and Barea and adding Carter, Odom, and West can look like before we see it on Sunday is smarter than I am. I wonder if there is enough defense, rebounding, rim protecting, leadership, and of course, with Carter, are there even enough basketballs to go around?

The team certainly looks versatile and exciting. But, last year when the squad needed a stop, they could put a very impressive defensive 5 on the floor at the same time. Now, they are missing that last, and most vital piece of the mix. The guy who can protect the paint. Haywood will no doubt be sold as a suitable stand-in, and only time will tell. To this juncture of his Mavericks career, one might suggest that those flashes of paint domination have been rare and without regularity.

One of the other notes of interest is how the Mavericks squad that certainly has experience and age in abundant amounts can deal with the very unique circumstances of 2011-12. Usually, a champion must deal with the "short summer" and tired legs because of all of the playoff miles. That is completely taken off the table here with well over 2 months added to the summer vacation due to the lockout.

A 66 game schedule should help an aging team. But, compacting those games in a much tighter window should hurt. 20 back-to-backs will test depth and health, and that is why one should be pleased with how much depth they have assembled.

So, how good will the Mavericks be? Great question. The West is as competitive as ever, but the top end might be a bit lighter than usual. The Lakers and Spurs both appear to be flawed as well. The Clippers have to show their quality on the court, and that leaves upstarts like Memphis and Oklahoma City to prove that they can take that next step. All of these facts may argue that maybe the band should have been kept together, but as they used to say, "there is no point crying over spilled milk".

The Mavericks are ready to bravely defend their title with an all-new group. What makes it particularly odd is that this group may all just be passing through before the new, new group assembles for 2012-13. This is the new NBA, and we should all get used to it. Shorter contracts and less roster continuity seems to be one of the effects of the new CBA.

Whatever. The banner goes up on Sunday. And an irate Wade and LeBron will be watching and preparing to try to make a bold statement with the basketball world watching.

How good will the Mavericks be?

As someone who said "Portland in 6", my predicting rights have been revoked.

We shall all find out together on Sunday.

How I spent my summer vacation

2011-12-21T07:18:00.005-06:00

This Year Is Different is a new ebook about the 2011 Dallas Mavericks World Championship from Diversion Books. A free sample of the book is available at their website, and the ebook can be downloaded on any e-reader instantly. The book is currently #1 on Amazon.com for basketball books.

The last year has been a truly memorable 12 months for many of us in the sports world. And for me, it was absolutely highlighted by the NBA title won by the Dallas Mavericks in June. The story itself was more than any one team winning a championship, as there are many teams who have won titles and several who have won many titles. Winning it all is special, but it certainly doesn't make it rare.

What made it rare was the way they won it. Against all odds. Against any logic from the experts. They figured out a way to win the trophy while ignoring any available templates. They really did it their way.

That is why the idea occurred to me on the airplane returning from Miami in June to write a book about the Mavericks championship. I had never written anything close to that length (the book spans roughly 100,000 words) and the idea to write the book may demonstrate my general naivety about how books are supposed to be written. Accomplished authors are no doubt supposed to take on these gigantic projects, not newbies like me. Nevertheless, this idea in my head kept talking to me, and therefore, a few days after the title was won, I started writing.

Before long, I reached out to Mavericks' owner Mark Cuban about his interest in such an idea. I did this partly because I knew he could appreciate the idea of making sure there was some sort of historical record and partly because I had no idea how to get a book published. He has a knack for getting things done, so I thought he was the one unique guy in the world to make it all happen. He told me, "Go for it. And do it fast." Without fully knowing what "fast" meant for a book, I did just that. Popped open my laptop at the kitchen table and attempted to document what I thought was one of the best sports seasons a fan could ever hope to enjoy.

Without knowing for sure how much time it took to write this book, I feel rather confident to say that it required every waking hour from the time the parade ended until early August, I was writing and writing and reading and watching and doing everything to write this record of an amazing year with an outstanding team that we may never see again. I knew that every day we removed ourselves from June 2011, that memories were going to become weaker.

The motivation was simply this - I wanted to try to preserve that feeling of elation on the page as well as humanly possible. To a sports fan, when you are in the moment of a championship that you never thought you would actually enjoy, you go out of your mind with happiness, but you slowly lose perspective. You lose the idea of what is normal and what is rare. You buy your championship t-shirt and you take pictures at the parade, but some setting in your head instantly moves to whether or not you can repeat as champions and what it would take to re-sign this guy (Tyson Chandler) or acquire this free agent (Dwight Howard) or that one (Chris Paul). As rare as the moment was, it then vanishes into thin air and sports continues on whether we are ready or not.

Years later, the details fade from your memory and the specialness of it all sometimes escapes your mind. Maybe Tyson Chandler signs in New York and suddenly your mind attempts to rationalize that losing him won't be so bad. Before long, you have talked yourself into forgetting how important Chandler was to the entire operation. It doesn't matter how true it is. The fact is that as fans we all have a coping mechanism when we lose players that we really loved to watch.

That is why I wanted to take on this massive project. One could make the case that surely someone else, who has written a book before and was embedded with the team all season, would be far more qualified to write this record. But, I wasn't going to wait around and hope that they wrote it. I also wasn't going to hope that they would remember it like i did. I had to do it myself.

So, the process for my project was likely different from others. I talked to everyone that I could think of on the team and around the team as soon as possible. Some of the members of the story literally spent hours with me. Their generosity with their precious free time made it possible to capture in the book the perspective from the inside. Trainers, equipment guys, P.R. staff, coaches, broadcasters, and of course, the players.

Now, the player-interview process was a bit complex because of the NBA lockout that started at midnight on July 1. This meant that any communication with players after that date would not be assisted by the team. Usually, when you wish to visit with a player, a member of the media relations team with the Mavericks will coordinate the conversation according to the insane schedule of the player in question. For instance, I visited with Jason Kidd while he was grocery shopping in Phoenix. He had an hour to talk as he stocked up on food and pushed a shopping cart.

But, by July 1st, I had not been able to get with the main character of the book, Dirk Nowitzki, to find an opening in his schedule. If you recall, his late June schedule was nothing short of fast and furious, as he celebrated on late night television, parades (on 2 continents), and just living his "life achievement" as you hoped he would. Selfishly, I hoped he would work me in before the lockout, but it didn't happen. I then pondered the prospect of writing a book without visiting with the main character. I didn't like that reality, but, I was too far down the road with the book to stop now. I would have to figure something out perhaps without talking to Dirk.

And then, I was hit with a stroke of good fortune as someone close to me found Holger Geschwindner's email address. Holger, of course, is Dirk's personal coach and agent and is headquartered back in Germany. I took a shot, and he advised me that Dirk would be back in town before heading to the ESPY awards around July 10. He even offered me Dirk's email, and before long I was able to spend 90 minutes with Nowitzki that pushed the book from strong to quite strong. He is the reason why this story is so phenomenal. It is a story about a lot of people, but in the end, if there was no Dirk in this story, it would be just another title.

The reason I wanted to write this book was because it proved that sometimes the boyhood sports dream can come true. He showed up as just a boy, and those of us who have followed his career in Dallas know that we saw him grow up over the course of the last 13 years into a grizzled veteran who learned that all of the points and dollars would not take away his burning desire to be a champion. That day in July he told stories of every step along the way that I asked him about. I tried to put every last morsel in the book in some way shape or form. He put himself out there for all to see on the road to victory which took him through prolonged trips in agony and defeat. And now that he stood atop the mountain, if only for a short time, I wanted to make sure that those who want to would always remember that moment in time as he saw it.

I have no idea if I will ever write another book. It seems a lot like running a marathon in the "bucket list" category of life. When you are done, you are proud of what you showed yourself you could do, but you also realize how many hundreds of hours you just spent doing it. I suspect, if I do, that I will need my editor, Ken Daley, right next to me. For it was Ken that helped a blogger look like an actual author. His work was phenomenal and now I see how vital the right guy in that spot can truly be.

Right now, the book is only available in "E-book" form. That means anyone with a Kindle, Nook, IPad, PC, or Mac can read it, but those who desire a physical copy will have to wait a bit longer. But, my dream is that it becomes a keepsake or memento for those who lived one of their happiest sports moments last spring with Dirk and the boys. The links above will even take you to a free sample where you may read the first few chapters at no obligation.

But regardless of which medium you use to read it, if you loved the story, I really hope you will have a chance to read it. This season is here, and it will bring its own excitement and headaches, victories and defeats, but I am willing to bet you will never see another season like the Mavericks year in 2011. A year that was truly different.

Decoding Garrett - Week 14 - Data - Tampa Bay

2011-12-19T19:26:00.006-06:00

As a big fan of the English Premiership (Soccer), I am reminded of a certain fan song that comes to mind when the Cowboys get healthy against an opponent of Tampa Bay's caliber. The lyrics go something like this:

"Can we play you? Can we play you? Can we play you every week?"

Clearly, football would be a lot easier if you only played teams that had almost no offense or defense in terms of talent or resolve. And we should give the Cowboys credit for realizing this opportunity and being able to put Tampa out of its misery rather early in the contest. This allowed for time on the sidelines for key figures of the team and a relatively easy night on the injury front.

Philadelphia and New York stand ahead on the road to the playoffs and it would be foolish to expect anything similar from those two rivals, but this was a good opportunity to demonstrate the vast improvement that the Cowboys have enjoyed offensively since the half-way point of the year.

Back on November 10, we spent a fair amount of time focusing on the Cowboys offensive metrics from the 1st half of the season.

Despite some reasonable personal performances, as an offense, the Cowboys had very little team efficiency. That simply means that for all of the yardage they would accumulate, there would not be a proper amount of corresponding points from that hard work.

In that story, we detailed the 3 things that make an offense inefficient: Turnovers, 3rd Down conversions, and Red Zone efficiency (how many Touchdowns are you scoring from your red zone trips).

Well, in the 2nd half of the season, the Cowboys have really picked up the pace in those categories. The giveaways from the offense have been under proper control, as Romo has 4 Interceptions in the last 10 games.

But, let's look at the other two that are seldom talked about, but so very important.

On 3rd Downs, the Cowboys through 8 weeks were well below the NFL average on the "money down". At 35.4%, they were down in the bottom third of the league with some of the least productive and talented offenses in all of football. This is an especially frustrating truth as we believe the Cowboys have elite talent at many of the skill positions and should not be underachieving in this department. With all of the weapons on the field at the same time, you would like to think that Garrett and his troops could convert as they should - well above the league average of 38%.

Now, in weeks 9-14, the Cowboys have dominated the money down. Romo threw all 3 of his touchdowns on 3rd Down on Saturday night in Tampa Bay, and after going 34-96 in the first half of the year, the offense has converted 34-73 in the last 6 games. That percentage sits at 47% and has raised the season mark to #11 in the league and at 40%, is now above the league average.

And now, let's update that all-important "red zone efficiency". Back before the Buffalo game, we marveled at the Bills start, but also cautioned people about falling in love with Buffalo because they were converting almost every red zone chance in to 7 points. This stat can cover a large number of faults if every time you make it inside the opposing 20, you leave with 7 points. However, if that well ever dries up, the team's wins will, too.

The Cowboys had a 4-4 record and many of their problems were linked to many yards but then red zone bog-downs at the most important point of the field. Leaving with a field goal will cost you games.

So, let's look at the improvement: Through 8 games, the Cowboys sat at 38% (10-26) in converting those drives into Touchdowns. Given that the league average is 52%, this was maybe the most disconcerting statistic of them all. The Cowboys ranked 31st in the league - higher than only Tampa Bay. Unacceptable.

But, weeks 9-14 have been great in this regard. The Cowboys have been to the red zone 21 times in the 2nd half of the season and have found the end zone 13 times (59%). That type of conversion rate for the entire season would rank them in the Top 5 of the league. They are finally punching in these plays and once again it comes back to the play of Romo in these tight spots, because only 1 team in all of football has fewer rushing TDs from inside the red zone than the Cowboys. Dallas has 4, and Cleveland has just 3.

I do think it is fair to point out that while we do laud Romo's hot streak and the idea that getting all 3 Top WR options on the field at the same time is stressing secondaries, one thing we are not looking at is how the offensive line has improved. They are still a long way from being a strong OL, but they are much improved. In my personal opinion, the replacement of Bill Nagy with Montrae Holland has been one of the more underrated upgrades of the year. Nagy broke his leg in the New England game, and the overall performance of the offensive line has shot up in almost every category since the veteran castaway was plugged in before Game #6.

Now, let's look at the Tampa Bay numbers.

First, the Tony Romo throw chart. Blue shows completions, red are incompletions, and yellow are his 3 touchdowns. As you can see, here, the Touchdowns were all almost identical in the roll right throws.

Data from Week 14 at Tampa Bay

Run-Pass	35-32
1st Down Run-Pass	18-10
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.47
2nd Down Run-Pass	15-6
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.61
3rd Down Run-Pass	2-11
3rd Down Conversions	7-13, 54%

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The numbers that jump out at you are the phenomenal jobs on 1st and 3rd Down. Facing an average of 6.47 on 2nd Down is off the charts. Also, the Run/Pass splits are impressive, but those are quite affected by the score at halftime. They did run plenty, but most of it was in the 2nd half, so don't be deceived by that 18-10 run/pass on 1st Down.

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan.

The Cowboys were 5 run and 5 pass on their drive starters in Tampa, but started with passes on 4 of the first 5. Again, the score affected the balance for the full game. But make no mistake, Jason Garrett came out with great aggression against Tampa - something we have challenged him to do more on the road games where he is usually quite conservative. This was not careful passing, this was downfield passing with attack as the intent.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass
Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass
Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass
Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Wk 9-Buffalo - 10 Drives - 7 Run/3 Pass
Wk 10-At Washington - 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 11-Miami - 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass
Wk 12-At Arizona - 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 13-New York - 12 Drives - 7 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-At Tampa - 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Total: 158 Drives - 70 Run/88 Pass 44% Run

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	1	1-1	0-0
12	10	95	7-69	3-26
13	1	2	0-0	1-2
21	10	33	5-18	5-15
22	19	78	17-67	2-11
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	3	14	1-1	2-13
S02	1	7	0-0	1-7
S11	22	169	4-6	18-163
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0
Knee	1	0	1-0	0-0
Totals	67	399	35-162	32-267

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Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	0	1-0	0-0	1/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	2	13	0-0	2-13	1/1
S02	1	7	0-0	1-7	0/1
S11	9	58	1-1	8-57	3/1
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	13	78	2-1	11-77	4/3

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3 Touchdowns on 3rd Down? There are not many games during a season where that will happen. Those 3 plays in particular were a thing of beauty from Romo and the offense.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66
Wk 2 - SF: 32/66
Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62
Wk 4 - Det: 29/75
Wk 5 - NE 31/67
Wk 6 - StL 10/60
Wk 7 - Phi 39/49
Wk 8 - Sea 19/59
Wk 9 - Buf 15/61
Wk 10-Was 24/73
Wk 11-Mia 25/58
Wk 12-Arz 29/67
Wk 13-NYG 28/58
Wk 14-TB 26/67

Total - 358/887 40.3%

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Overall, the offense appears to have found its game again in the last 2 performances. The scoring and yardage are both at levels that tell us they are finally seeming to come together.

As we said, the true tests will be ahead, but from a confidence standpoint, it is easy to practice this week knowing that they are locked in pretty well and capable of being efficient and productive.

These are very good signs from the 2nd half of 2011.

And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.