Bob's Blog - Live from Lewisville

Draft Profile: Rd4 - B.W. Webb - CB - William And Mary

2013-05-22T08:49:00.000-05:00

The following is the 5th in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys' selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of game tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp in Oxnard this summer.

B.W. Webb
William And Mary
Cornerback
5'10, 183
40 time: 4.49, Bench Press: 14
January 7, 1990 (Age 23)

One prevailing Dallas theme as you look at this draft appears to be the idea that the Cowboys were looking to make preparations for a time when they would have to release long-time veteran contributors because of salary cap implications and more significantly, the eroding skills of players on the backside of their careers. Any NFL team that is successful begins to make replacement plans before they have to. Dallas, a team that has more holes than it has plugs is trying to do this on the fly, and appears to have done a decent job of such an activity last month.

One such selection, B.W. Webb - the slot corner from William And Mary, seems to cover them for the exit of Orlando Scandrick as early as next winter, but almost certainly at the end of 2014 at the latest.

In the meantime, Webb provides them with depth at a very important position in a league that attacks corners with great routine. Cornerback is one of those positions where most general managers would agree that "you can never have too many" and now that the Cowboys can run out Brandon Carr and Mo Claiborne as their top pair, with Orlando Scandrick in the slot, and now Webb as the 4th for a year is a wonderful addition. The need for a street free agent to roll right in and contribute seems minimal with strong depth on the defensive secondary this year, despite some issues at the top of the safety position.

In watching several of Webb's performances on film from 2012, there are some characteristics that stick out immediately. First, you are drawn to his size as he appears to be very small. If he is 5'10, it is deceiving, because you initially think he is even smaller. But, he battles his tail off and seems to be ready to fight for the ball in all circumstances in coverage.

And that competitive edge he played with in college will serve him well as he makes the jump to the next level. He is certainly the type to express his feelings with the occasional primal scream and jawing that many in the position have made routine on Sundays. His best player attribute is his desire and ability to win battles in the air. And this is an obvious necessity if quarterbacks want to attack the short corner, he better be able to leap and contest balls thrown over his head and "jump ball" scenarios. He did very well with this at his college and at the Senior Bowl, and for that we must give him credit and the benefit of the doubt. But, I suppose we should wait to see if he can elevate to the necessary heights that Brandon Marshall, Hakeem Nicks, or Calvin Johnson will require this season if the situation dictates.

He seems to have quality instincts for the ball as you can best see in the 2nd video below at the 1:00 mark as he jumped a pitch in the New Hampshire game to cause a turnover. He also jumps pass routes which will have to be monitored as he turns pro, but you would rather ask a guy to be more controlled than to be more aggressive. You can rein a player in, but if his default setting is to be careful, then I don't think you have a pro prospect to be excited about. If the name of the game on defense is to look for big plays, then you are going to have to occasionally have the internal confidence to make them.

Tackling is something that he does willingly. Again, he is quite small, so he is constantly challenged on the smoke screens where he has to fight through a WR block and get to the ball, because if he doesn't, it could go a long way. He does well in those situations. He also competes on stretch run plays, but even at a smaller school, offensive linemen are just going to bulldoze him.

Let's be clear: He is not going to be known as a fantastic run support tackler. He is willing, but that isn't his specialty. But, to play slot, you better be able to snuff out some runs. So, can he use his quickness to preserve his health and make the play on Sundays? Many people have issues with Orlando Scandrick, but one issue you should not have is his toughness. And for Webb to be able to ultimately replace him, he will have to demonstrate not only the courage, but the durability that slot in the NFL requires.

In coverage, he stays with the route well, often from a fundamentally sound position and can find the ball. He is just so athletic and fluid and then drives on the ball with exceptional quickness. He also has reasonable return skills that perhaps have been overstated (by virtue of breaking a 91-yard return against Delaware), but still with his tools, you can bet he gives them another sound option that they will likely use if Dwayne Harris is unavailable.

This is a useful pick, especially if he can prove that size is not everything.

Here is some video to look at, if you haven't already seen it:

Webb #2 vs Maryland

Highlight Video (Music NSFW)

Summary: Again, this cannot be over-stated. This team has not enjoyed corner depth over the years where they have even opened the season recently with just 3 corners on the roster (2011). But, now, after losing Mike Jenkins, they appear to have an option in Webb that can help them cover themselves. He is not strictly a slot corner, but that is his natural NFL spot, it appears, provided he can handle runs to his side. I think the attributes that will serve him well are clearly his battle and desire to mix things up. He is a very aggressive, emotional, and competitive player - all things that you look for in a corner who is going to be attacked on a regular basis until he proves he belongs on Sundays.

You would hope he can bulk up a bit, because science indicates that it is tough to play physical and survive at that size for long, but if he can knock that off his list of doubts, the Cowboys may have quite a find here at pick #114. Many thought this would be the pick where they would address running back, and the Cowboys saw UCLA's Johnathan Franklin (Green Bay), South Carolina's Marcus Lattimore (San Francisco), and Stanford's Stepfan Taylor (Arizona) all go off the board between this pick and the pick at #151 which resulted in Joseph Randle, who we will examine next.

But, they saw an aggressive and courageous corner and hopped on the opportunity. And now they actually have a plan at corner in case an injury hits the group in 2013. This seems like pretty solid logic if they have properly projected his step up to the NFL. From there, if he proves able, he might be in the mix to help give them a cheaper alternative at a high-leverage position in 2014.

Draft Profile: Rd 3 - JJ Wilcox - S - Georgia Southern

2013-05-20T09:02:00.000-05:00

The following is the 4th in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys' selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of game tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp in Oxnard this summer.

JJ Wilcox
Georgia Southern
Safety
6'0, 213
40 time: 4.53, Bench Press: 17
February 14, 1991 (Age 22)

I think we have all heard multiple times over the years that drafting is surely not an "exact science", right?

There are more than a few variables that make judging one football player against the next a very difficult process that makes most arrive at the conclusion that "they will have to wait and see" whether the Cowboys made the right decision.

And the 2013 version of that cliche will most likely center on the selection of JJ Wilcox, the man with several interesting tools in his bag, but the question of whether he is ready for his next set of challenges at the unforgiving position in the NFL that veteran QBs target to exploit. He plays safety in a passing league, and the Cowboys will be asking him to do as a starter, sooner rather than later.

He was the #80 selection in the draft and the #7 safety taken. He was taken before names that were closely linked with the Cowboys - like Phillip Thomas from Fresno State, a guy who led the NCAA in interceptions in 2012 (#119 to Washington) and Shamarko Thomas of Syracuse (#111 to Pittsburgh). Another safety who had promising ability for this type of scheme was thought to be Bacarri Rambo from Georgia (#191 to Washington) was taken off the boards of many teams for all sorts of off field issues that made him less than desirable.

But the Cowboys made 2 choices that may seem unconventional when they selected Wilcox, but might really pay off for them if they get this decision correct. First, they went to a FCS School that plays against an awful lot of running offenses in the Southern Conference for Wilcox's Georgia Southern. And then, they took a safety who was not exactly accomplished there. In fact, he was switched to safety from offense in 2012 spring practice, because they had depth issues to deal with in the secondary.

So, in some ways, he is just the opposite of Matt Johnson, the FCS safety they took in 2012 in the 4th Round who is actually listed as the starter despite essentially "red shirting" last season. Johnson had been regarded as one of the more accomplished safeties at his level in the land and was thought of as a safe projection of quality (when he gets on the field) but may be near his finish line of potential. Wilcox, having played just 1 season, has progressed quite a bit in that one year. But, when the scouts were discussing him during draft season, it seemed that most agreed that he is an eventual starter who will need to be brought along slowly and under the proper tutelage.

I had a chance to view quite a bit of Wilcox's work from 2012 on his coaches film and feel that I have a relative handle on his game at the FCS level after looking at him for a while.

He is going to be a force moving downhill. He played against a number of opponents who had no interest in passing the ball, and I feel confident in instances where he smells run and is correct, he will be a very impressive strong safety. His in the box strength is bull in a china shop, and he certainly can pack the force of a linebacker into his tackling. He is strong and confident and ready to break up a running play and fly to the ball. He actually might be too aggressive (this can be said regarding just about every safety in the draft) and is caught over-running plays at the college level. Safeties at a certain level of production actually get going too fast when they are sure they aren't going to get burnt by the opposition. Often, when they get to the NFL, they have to slow down for a while as they get acclimated to a level where the QB is waiting for one false step to throw over their head for a long pass. And that is where the swagger and self-assured style is truly tested.

His hips and mid-section are wide and stout, allowing him to have plenty of force for his position, but making many wonder about the dreaded "tight hips". I would say at this age that is not a concern as he moves very well, and maybe the tape that makes you salivate the most is his sideline to sideline pursuit of a wide running play. In that, he seems to be a heat-seeking missile Also, he returned kicks in college, so he has the skill set to be elusive and I would not get him confused with the safety Roy Williams for a lack of flexibility.

Now, all of this is nice, but the question that really matters in the NFL where you see Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers all on your schedule this season, is "can he cover"?

And for that answer, I offer a definite "maybe". You see, with 1 season under his belt and with a number of games against Western Carolina, Wofford, and the Citadel (who all attempted fewer than 8 passes for the entire games), it is not exactly easy to feel like you have a handle on his pass defense.

Now, he did get plenty of work against passing offenses that included the Georgia Bulldogs, Old Dominion (see below) and Appalachian State, but we are talking about a half dozen games against passing defenses in his entire career to rate his ability to understand all of the numerous concepts thrown at NFL safeties.

He was able to run with receivers in man coverage from the slot with ease, but to compare that to what waits for him at the next level is clear apples and oranges. His safety instincts were tested on rare occasions of play-action over the top, but generally seemed to sniff out the ball and close hard. He made a big interception to seal a game late in the season in the FCS playoffs and does find the ball and jump routes across the middle. It is just such a small sample of work.

But, he played in college with a step towards the line almost on every occasion, whereas the NFL safety is getting into his drop at the snap. And that is the major difference from a run-first conference at 1-AA, versus the pass-first offenses in the NFC. It is the same position, but barely.

Here is some video to look at, if you haven't already seen it:

Wilcox #19 vs Old Dominion

vs Samford

Summary: I think safety is one of the most interesting races to watch in the next several months. It is certainly not something that gets the newspapers going crazy, because it is a bunch of names that the average fan may not have a lot of information on, but make no mistake - in the Tampa 2 defense, there is plenty of responsibility on the safeties. Now, JJ Wilcox, Matt Johnson, Barry Church, and even Will Allen (with an outside chance of Sterling Moore being converted) will compete with a chance to emerge as the 2 that are asked to play as starters. I assume that is Church and Johnson at first, but Johnson will have an extremely short leash until he wins the job with his play. But, Wilcox might be enough to push him as early as July and August.

Wilcox could really use time to simply learn the position because Georgia Southern was not asking him to do much other than react. That is fine at that level, but the NFL is based on showing you something to get that same reaction and then to seize the door you just opened with your reaction.

I know that there is plenty of preconceived notions about project safeties around here (Hello 2010 4th Round pick, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah), but we should assume that this would be the specialty of the defensive masterminds that have been hired here. They have specific tastes in the safeties they seek, and clearly, with a number of "big school" safeties on the board, they liked Wilcox more. And now, their judgement will be tested in the next 24 months as they attempt to get him ready to contribute.

At first, expect him to be a big contributor to special teams (they will likely need him on all 4 specialty teams) and to be brought along slowly to learn the game at a level where he can play with confidence on Sundays. That might take more work than can be reasonably thrown at him in just one summer. They are playing the long-game here, taking a guy that will not emerge right away, but let's see how well they can bring along a guy who looks the part from a physical-standpoint already.

If they can turn Church, Johnson, and ultimately, JJ Wilcox into reasonable NFL starters, then that will go a long way towards making this defense work.

Draft Profile: Rd 3 - Terrance Williams - WR - Baylor

2013-05-17T10:30:00.001-05:00

The following is the 3rd in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys' selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of game tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp in Oxnard this summer.

Terrance Williams
Baylor
Wide Receiver
6'2, 208
40 time: 4.50, Bench Press: 11
September 18, 1989 (Age 23)

Football is a game of simple math. Can you rush more players than they can block? Can you put more receivers into a zone than they can defend? Can you get more guys to the ball than they can deal with? This is the fun with numbers that are all over the game. You have 11 and they have 11, but how do you deploy them to cause the opposition math issues?

Well, that leads us to the discussion of the Cowboys spending their 2nd pick on a 2nd tight end and their 3rd pick on a 3rd Wide Receiver. I have heard some make the case that in the 2013 draft, in which the Cowboys desperately needed upgrades at several starting positions (Guard, Tackle, Center, Free Safety, Strong Safety, Outside Linebacker, and Defensive Tackle), they drafted for depth at skill positions who were in effect, reserves.

Now, nobody will complain about Gavin Escobar or Terrance Williams if there are injuries that push them onto the field (and there are always injuries). Nor will anybody complain about training the understudies for Jason Witten and Miles Austin when the Cowboys replace those two veteran mainstays down the road when the salaries and the ability no longer is in the proper order.

But, for the time being - assuming that this draft wasn't just about contract flexibility in 2014 and 2015 and injury insurance for next fall - we must discuss the simple math elements of what the Cowboys decided to do a few weeks ago. Essentially, they have taken the last skill position player that they can put on the field in 2 consecutive picks.

With 11 offensive players, with 5 being the offensive line and 1 being Tony Romo, you have 5 remaining spots to figure out in each down and distance (I realize this is extremely fundamental stuff, but stay with me). Once you put DeMarco Murray, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant in their places, now you have 2 spots remaining. Just about every package you design will have a spot for Miles Austin, a guy who has been very productive whenever he has been on the field both on deep passes and shallow throws. He is a proper #2 WR in the NFL, provided those hamstrings behave.

So now, you have 1 spot left. With Jerry Jones telling everyone who will listen that they are determined to make their "base" offense "12 Personnel", then this is settled. Gavin Escobar will be on the field in all situations that are considered "base". Then, on 3rd and long or in the 2-minute drill, we assume the Cowboys will go back to what we have become accustomed to for the last few years, "11 personnel". 11 is 3 WRs, 1 RB, 1 TE, and that is where Terrance Williams will start.

Williams is a prospect who has some very interesting versatility and ability and after looking at his game film on several of his games from the last few years, I am quite excited about where his career could go. There is no question that he should be able to provide with the Cowboys with as deep a WR position as they have had in a very long time. Even in 2011, when we all remember Laurent Robinson accomplishing so much, we were dealing with a young, developing Dez Bryant and an often injured Austin who missed a lot of time in the middle of the season.

In watching him do his thing for Baylor last season, there is all of the confidence of a big-time threat who fed off of the fear of his opposition. Being a "big play" receiver, you can see that the Big 12 style of defending put him in a spot where he received a very big cushion and made the most of it. I assume the first thing he will face at the next level will be "press coverage" to see how he likes fighting for his release, but at the college level, he was into his routes quickly and with great precision.

He is an exceptional route runner who gets out of his breaks and is where he is supposed to be. He has strong body control and also uses his frame to gain position on inside routes with ease at the college level. I have heard plenty about the feeling that he is an outside receiver first and foremost, and I can see why that is said. He is fantastic against the sideline and catches those balls over his shoulder like a natural. He also runs the post routes with the type of speed that will crush safeties that bite on a run-fake.

But, I don't want to undervalue his "slot" potential as well. He may not be your first choice, but he lined up in many spots and the inside slot play is not against his film, either. He can do many things out there and although he may not have quite the upside as a guy like Dez, I really think that Terrance will do very well in the NFL.

The thing that sticks out as you watch him play is his confidence level and his swagger. He has been successful with 2 different QBs at Baylor, with RG3 in 2011, he had 11 touchdowns and 957 yards. Then, the next year after Griffin and Kendall Wright were both 1st Round picks, with Nick Florence slinging the ball, he had 1832 yards and 12 touchdowns at a stunning 19 yards per reception.

He knew he could dominate games and was ready to do just that. You love to see that from a player when observing his game, and that trait is a must to be ready to battle NFL corners for your space.

Now, let's visit about the concerns that allowed him to drop to #74. He is more of a "body catcher" than a "hands catcher" which is an issue at the NFL level because when you come out of your break, corners will close on your back and be able to jar loose balls with arms around if you don't go meet the ball with extended arms toward the QB. He had that happen on Saturdays, and that will need to be cleaned up.

He also would run crossing patterns with great resolve on most occasions, but I did seem him bail out when his peripheral vision saw a safety coming or he heard the footsteps. I don't think this is an issue that saw him drop, but rather just something to notate.

He is a willing downfield blocker and a strong kid. When people ask why he dropped into the mid 3rd round when some thought he could go early in round 2, I feel it is mostly because WR was a very deep position in the draft and there was no reason to rush to take one when other positions were in shorter supply.

Here is some video to look at, if you haven't already seen it:

Williams #2 vs Texas Tech

vs West Virginia

Summary: Again, there are a few conversations that happen simultaneously when discussing the picks of Escobar and Williams. Is Williams a terrific prospect that I am excited about? Absolutely. Does his selection make sense if they have no room for him on the field? That is where it gets cloudier, because once they declare they are a 2-tight end offense, you pretty much indicate that a 3rd Wide Receiver is not a regular. Sure, you can design special packages for him, but if his upside in 2013 is 15 snaps and covering punts and kickoffs, you wonder if that is a smart use of limited resources.

On the other hand, with Bryant and Austin having issues playing 16 games at optimum health, the idea of having a very capable backup in reserve is a far cry from going to camp with no idea who will be your #3 like last year. Even if you like what Dwayne Harris and Cole Beasley brought to the table, we must remember that they played very little. They might be perfect for this role - given that 2 TEs takes away the need for a 3rd WR, but with John Phillips and Kevin Ogletree in those spots instead of Gavin Escobar and Terrance Williams, you can see how the team looks so much better on paper.

He will be the other side of the trade from Sharrif Floyd when you couple Travis Frederick and Williams together instead of the defensive tackle. Pop on his tape for a few seconds and you can understand why they were fired up to get their hands on him, a full round later than they expected to have a shot at him.

His development will be monitored closely in 2013, and if it goes well, he might be promoted to the man opposite Dez for years to come in 2014. In the meantime, we certainly cannot say they didn't try to give Romo plenty of targets in 2013.

Draft Profile: Rd 2 - Gavin Escobar - TE - San Diego State

2013-05-15T09:11:00.000-05:00

The following is the 2nd in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys' selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of game tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp in Oxnard this summer.

Gavin Escobar
San Diego State
Tight End
6'6, 254
40 time: 4.84, Bench Press: DNP
February 3, 1991 (22)

Sometimes, trying to fully understand the Cowboys' long-term plans can be quite difficult. This, of course, is partially due to the fact that their long-term plans have altered repeatedly over the years and if you are inconsistent in your goals, then it there will also be inconsistency in detecting those goals with observations from the outside.

For example, one long-term plan would be to replace your older players before they become incapable of performing. This requires two things, finding his replacement and also, not paying so much guaranteed money to old players that you cannot replace them. That is why many of us cringe with the annual off-season contract restructures of players over 30 years old on this roster. When you restructure, you are guaranteeing money in future seasons. And when you do that, you are adding to the dead money if that player ever runs out of ability.

So, on one hand, we could argue that the Cowboys are beginning to plan for the post-Jason Witten era when they drafted a tight end so high in the 2013 draft when they took Gavin Escobar from San Diego State at pick #47. But, on the other hand, with $9m guaranteed to Witten after 2013 - with cap hits annually of over $8m - they are still quite dependent on Witten giving them several more years of productivity despite already having 806 career receptions and very high mileage on his odometer.

Enter "12 Personnel". When I am done with these draft profiles, I want to dive deeper into the discussion about the Cowboys offensive history with "12 Personnel" and their determination to pair another weapon at the tight end position with Jason Witten going all the way back to 2006 when Anthony Fasano was taken in the 2nd round and then 2008 when Martellus Bennett was taken in the 2nd round, too. To allocate 3 2nd round picks in 8 drafts to the tight end position that already has an elite starter seems extremely foolish on the surface. That is, unless you can make it an unstoppable force for your offense that makes the league's defenses beg for mercy.

And that brings us to this tall pass catcher from San Diego State.

In watching film on many of his games this fall, it is rather clear that San Diego State's offense was built from the inside routes to the outside. In fact, you could easily argue that the Aztecs offense was the college equivalent of some past Cowboys' offenses where Romo to Witten was the constant refrain as the receivers were used as decoys and decorations rather than real threats. Think of this: SD State had exactly one man catch more than 24 passes in 2012, and that is the leggy and lanky Escobar with 42.

They went to him over and over again, with a number of hook/curl routes, some out-breaking short routes, and then fades to the corner and seam routes down the middle to use his superior height and jumping ability against defensive backs.

In a few instances for SD State, you could see the cat-and-mouse game between the offense and the opponent in the red zone. Offensively, they were determined to fit (force) the ball into a tight spot where Escobar could make a catch and the opponent would then double team him with bracket-coverage and not give him any space. No matter how many guys were covering him, it seemed that they were still going to him, and so we saw many chances for Escobar to demonstrate his well-advertised hands and aerial game.

His hands are good, bordering on very good. I do cringe a bit when hearing he has "great hands" because that would seem a bit disingenuous if you have watched his film. His technique is fine as he is not "body catching", but there were a few times where you wanted him to reel in a ball before you throw the label of "great" out there. The fact is that he was thrown the ball a ton, and although I cannot specifically say how many targets he had for his 42 catches, it was many. Some were dropped, but most were a case where the QB was flat-out determined that he is throwing to Escobar regardless of coverage. There was a mid-season QB change from senior-tranfer Ryan Katz, to young DFW-product Adam Dingwell, and it appeared that Dingwell had seen enough Romo to Witten to know that the easiest target to find is the one who is running the route 9 yards in front of your face.

Everyone is quick to point out a troubling 4.84 speed at the combine in the 40, so I was carefully looking at his routes and his ability to find space. Rest assured, this guy plays faster than he is timed. In fact, I might argue that he plays plenty faster than he is timed as he can find space and lose defensive backs in routes. He has a basketball background and understands that deception can knock your defender off his balance and that shake is what finds daylight in a proper pass-route. He has a very fine ability to attract coverage, so you do wonder how secondaries will deal with this many guys that need an extra defender to corral - especially in that red-zone.

What you really like about him is his formation versatility. He can be lined up just about anywhere, including flexed to the slot, alone wide by himself, or deployed as a primary tight end. He is a handful and often covered by corners or safeties. For instance, CB Desmond Trufant of Washington (now of the Falcons) was covering him quite a bit in their season opener against the Huskies.

Now, to that other aspect of his game that has caused many to fear the future, his blocking. There is no doubt that he will not make people forget Martellus Bennett's blocking, which was fantastic for much of his time here. He tries, but he certainly is not packing wallop on the run blocks when he is lined up next to the tackle. He is what they would call a "get in your way" blocker. And that is useful if properly deployed. They used him a lot like Andy Reid used Brent Celek over the years, which was with motion across the formation or at the snap the player heads behind the line to the opposite flank to get the contain man on the defense on what is called "cut-off" block. The difference is obviously that with a running start, he is able to generate much more force and can clean out a defender with much greater ease. And that is why I think we will see more situations where he is a blocker best suited for coming from the backside than staying strong and anchored from the frontside of a run.

Also, in the pursuit of run/pass balance, they also used another Reid favorite, which is the concept of leaving Escobar in to pass block, only to have him let his guy run free at the QB, setting up a dump pass to the tight end on what amounts to a TE screen pass and nothing but green grass ahead. We have seen Celek do that to DeMarcus Ware on several occasions, and the Aztecs enjoyed running that plenty.

As a pass blocker, he will need work, but I think with his size, he should be able to help. Again, the issues with the Cowboys in "12 personnel" in the past has been that they don't want to leave Witten in to pass block - and he has made it rather clear that he doesn't want to stay in. So, the other tight end is keyed on to be that pass blocker. With Bennett, he was great at that, but not great at receiving. With Escobar, he will be a very fine receiver, but will he be able to hold of Ryan Kerrigan? Better make sure he has some help.

Here is some video to look at, if you haven't already seen it:

Escobar #88 vs Boise State

General Highlights

Summary: Of all of their picks, this is the one that I have reservations about. And frankly, it has more to do with my optimism on James Hanna than it does about Escobar. If we are casting for a 2nd TE with the idea of running more "12" personnel, then I thought Hanna can provide that with blazing speed and potential as a receiver. Now, I assume he will have a role, but it won't be a big one.

But, if the idea was to be ready for that time nobody likes to think about - when Jason Witten is no longer an elite player - then, we should applaud the forward thinking. It is reasonable to say that Hanna could be a great 2nd TE, but never a #1. Escobar can be the #2 and grow into a very good #1 by 2015 when we assume Witten will not be what he is today. From that standpoint, I am fine with this, but it would have made much more sense if they would stop restructuring Witten's deal which insures he stays for financial reasons - even if his football reasons are not as convincing down the road.

The counter argument, of course, is that this team has much more pressing needs and Witten/Hanna could handle whatever you needed and then you find a blocking 3rd TE in the late part of the draft and use #47 on any number of quality defensive players left on the board - Bennie Logan, DJ Swearinger, or Jordan Hill - or more OL help - Larry Warford. And that would have been widely supported.

Instead, they are trying to fix red zone efficiency and the ability to be run/pass balanced as they come to the line of scrimmage. What that simply means is that they want the defense to be unsure of the plan, something that has gone away in 2011 and 2012. The Cowboys only real mode for moving the ball most weeks was shotgun with "11" personnel, which was one of the least balanced offenses in the arsenal (in 2012, the Cowboys run/pass ration in S11 was 9/91).

Now, they want uncertainty on the defense in the minds of opposing linebackers and safeties. With Escobar and Witten, they should be able to get there. They also should be able to utilize an offense with Dez Bryant and Miles Austin that can finally rise above #20 in red zone efficiency, a spot they have been stuck at in 2011 and 2012.

This all looks good on paper, but now, like when they spent pick #53 on Fasano from Notre Dame or #61 on Bennett from Texas AM, they must make pick #47 work. Which may tell us how long until the Cowboys are shopping for a new head coach.

Draft Profile: Rd 1 - Travis Frederick - C - Wisconsin

2013-05-13T08:41:00.001-05:00

The following is the 1st in a series of draft profiles for the Dallas Cowboys' selected players from April's draft. These profiles are put together after watching significant amounts of game tape from each player, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and play to get an idea of how they might fit in best with Dallas come training camp in Oxnard this summer.

Travis Frederick
Wisconsin
Center
6'3, 312
40 time: 5.56, Bench Press: 21
Jan 1, 1991 (22)

If only we could look at football players without attaching baggage to our evaluation. Perhaps the best example of this is Greg Ellis, who if only judged on his own merits would have been thought of as one of the very best Cowboys of the last 15 years. However, he spent most of his career carrying around the burden of being "the guy that we took instead of Randy Moss" around here. That stayed with him despite being an exceptional player his entire career.

That leads us to Frederick who in some ways, is exactly the type of player you would hope the Cowboys could have left the draft with. A "Day 1 starter" who will instantly be able to handle whatever you throw at him, despite playing one of the most complex positions on the field.

And yet, he will always be attached to another ambitious day in the Cowboys' war-room, as Jerry Jones could not sit still again and pulled the trigger on a trade down and seemed dead set on getting an offensive lineman to protect Tony Romo. Frederick was, in Jerry's words, "the last of the Mohicans" as the 8 OLmen on that top tier. Once Frederick was gone, they felt things were going to drop to a next level that would not be ready to start on Day 1. This caused them to pass on Sharrif Floyd, a defensive tackle from Florida that the Cowboys had rated much higher on their draft board. And for that piece of information that has been confirmed numerous times, Frederick will always be hitched to Floyd's career.

But, when evaluating a player, you have to get all of that out of your head. You have to simply say that, now that he is here, there is no reason to spend time in his evaluation on how he got here. Let's simply look at his film, figure out what he does well and not so well, and then see if he has a spot on this squad. The other discussions of how the 2013 draft could have gone differently are valid for other discussions, but not on a Travis Frederick evaluation sheet.

I was able to look at a considerable amount of his 2012 season's coaches film and see what he does well against a Big 10 schedule that might not have had great teams, but the conference consistently places strong defensive line prospects into the NFL, so to see Frederick against Purdue's Kawann Short (Panthers), Penn State's Jordan Hill (Seahawks), Ohio State's Jonathan Hankins (Giants), and plenty of others, we know what the center can do against NFL talent.

And for the most part, there is plenty to like. Wisconsin asks plenty of their offensive line and they are nationally renowned for how they teach the position. It is based on strength, effort, and intelligence, and Frederick is a study in all 3. He absolutely can handle himself in situations that require his best. I admired his play in situations where teams were attempting to "storm the castle" and send everyone to go get the QB. His best attribute in pass protection seems to be his anchor. You are not going to go through him, and although this falls under the category of things that should be "givens", we have now seen in 2011 and 2012 that the Cowboys have had too many interior linemen who have been trucked. That won't happen with Frederick.

He is strong - despite what has been reported. I also recognize that his combine performance in general and his bench press in specific is disconcerting, but his game tape does not reveal someone who lacks strength. We have talked about his super-human 730lb squats and his respect in that Wisconsin weight room which speaks very highly of his dedication level given the guys who have come through that program, like Joe Thomas and JJ Watt.

His combine bench press of 21 reps is not very good, but when you dig into what was going on there, you simply have to look at his weight. He played at nearly 340 and then was obviously told to shed plenty of weight as he weighed in at 312. Losing nearly 30 pounds in 6 weeks can zap one of strength if it is not done properly, and that would seem to explain that, as again, his game film does not appear to show a lack of physical brute force.

He was seldom given help from either of Wisconsin's guards in the middle and in the NFL, that will change as combo blocks are a huge part of trying to deal with the DTs at this level. He is proficient at helping get a guy at the snap and then slipping off to the next level. But this is where we see where he struggles.

Frederick's negative attributes are common amongst most NFL interior linemen who may not have great athleticism in their feet, and that is an issue in dealing with quickness.

One thing that did show up in periodic situations - especially against quick DTs like Hill and Short - was something that will need to get cleaned up. And that is as they shade over his shoulder to the A gap to one side, he knows he is not getting help from the guard so at the snap he is leaning to that gap. This works if that is really where the DT is headed, but often times, as Frederick is jumping to his left to stop the gap that his opponent is cheating towards, the opponent switches back against Frederick's lean and takes the opposite A-gap. And this quickness is what gets Frederick into trouble as he either loses that man or tackles him in a clear hold.

Now, understand that this doesn't happen often, but it does happen, and that propensity to fall for that will make guys attack that move over and over until he shuts it down.

This also rears its head when he goes to the 2nd level, and tries to get to a middle linebacker. In the Michigan State tape, he had a heck of a time trying to keep Max Bullough from "quicking" around Frederick as the big center was trying to keep him inside his arms. This also led to issues where you either let him go and blow up your play or you hold him. Obviously, the Cowboys will need to teach technique that teaches a slower approach so he isn't off balance as he is running to his landmark to get his block. Easier said than done when a player is slow to begin with.

Basically, if there is a weakness, it is not his ability to stand up to guys. It is his ability to not hold when he gives up the edge. And the only way to truly not let that happen is to not give up the edge to begin with.

On pulling plays, I actually like him in space (by center standards) and this is something the Badgers did plenty with their running game. He can handle himself well and is not the roadblock that you would expect with that 40 time.

In general, he needs to stay on his feet a bit more and minimize holding situations where he loses leverage, but there is a lot to like here. I can understand why, especially after a few years of weak center play, they had him ranked as the best center in the draft.

Frederick #72 vs Stanford

Frederick #72 vs Ohio State

Summary: Again, if you can talk yourself into considering the trade down for 2 2nd rounders (Frederick and Terrance Williams) and position Frederick in your head as a 2nd round pick, this might be more appealing to your sensibilities. That being said, there is plenty to like here. He can play guard as well, but I think that this will be his best spot and using his intelligence to get line calls right is another reason that he is a proper center in my mind.

He is a Day-1 starter that will be pushed and tested and will battle and claw. But, in the idea that his principle role is to stop this OL from being bullied from right in front of Romo's face, I have no issues with the player. I think he will require guard help periodically, but every center needs that. In a phone booth, he is going to be fine, it is in space where you worry about his match-ing up with someone with Bruce Carter's quickness trying to get around him. There will be holds, but hopefully, he will get his weight back up to where he is comfortable (325?) and provide a wide foundation to build around. One plus to his 1st round spot is that he is on a 5-year rookie contract which may prove beneficial down the road, as well.

Now, you can push a guy like Phil Costa or Ryan Cook down the depth chart to a reserve role which suits them much better, too. I think this is the type of pick that will not sell season tickets, but it might go a long way in making this offense more balanced and versatile, rather than abandoning all game plans and simply switching to shotgun in the 2nd Quarter because your OL has been horrid (see 2012).

If you squint, you can see a bigger Jeff Saturday from back in the late 1990s. If Frederick gets anywhere close to that, his link to Sharrif Floyd will be forgotten in 5 years.

I Love Documentaries - Part 4

2013-05-10T10:34:00.000-05:00

One thing this blog tries to do is to write about sports on a very regular basis. However, to assume that this is all that I do is only 91% true. Occasionally, I write about the other 9% and since I am on a 4 hour flight right now, I thought that I better try to cross one of my many projects off my list.

It is my annual (or bi-annual or periodic) list of documentaries I have seen since last time I did this and that I would label as "Bob-Approved" or strong to quite strong.

I absolutely love watching documentaries and over the course of time I have become a bit of a source for some of you on what documentaries are worth seeing and which are not.

Rather than ripping some that I found to be a waste of time, I have assembled lists that I think if you select, you will enjoy your documentary experience. I think many of these can be found on Netflix or Itunes, but since rights to these films change rather frequently, I will make you figure that out on your own because by the time you read this, the information about where to find them might be outdated.

Now, before we enter our 4th edition list, please find here the 1st 3 versions of this list.

1. I Love Documentaries - Part 1 - From August 2008
2. I Love Documentaries - Part 2 - From March 2010
3. I Love Documentaries - Part 3 - From March 2012

And now, all of the documentaries that I think are worth your time that I have seen in the last 12 months - with a short summary courtesy of IMDB. I admit that this is a lengthy list, but they are all good films in my opinon. I will bold the best 5, but beyond that I don't want to rank these because they are all so different and are worthy films.

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Pelada - 2010

Away from the bright lights and manicured fields, there's another side of soccer. Two players, twenty-five countries, one game.

One Day in September - 1999

The 1972 Munich Olympics were interrupted by Palestinian terrorists taking Israeli athletes hostage. Besides footage taken at the time, we see interviews with the surviving terrorist, Jamal Al Gashey, and various officials detailing exactly how the police, lacking an anti-terrorist squad and turning down help from the Israelis, botched the operation.

From The Sky Down - 2011

In the terrain of rock bands, implosion or explosion is seemingly inevitable. U2 has defied the gravitational pull towards destruction; this band has endured and thrived. This documentary asks the question why.

Winnebago Man - 2009

Jack Rebney is the most famous man you've never heard of - after cursing his way through a Winnebago sales video, Rebney's outrageously funny outtakes became an underground sensation and made him an internet superstar. Filmmaker Ben Steinbauer journeys to the top of a mountain to find the recluse who unwittingly became the "Winnebago Man."

Being Elmo - 2011

The film traces Kevin Clash's rise from his modest beginnings in Baltimore to his current success as the man behind Elmo, one of the world's most recognizable and adored characters. Millions of children tune in daily to watch Elmo, yet when Kevin walks down the street he is not recognized. Pivotal to the film is the exploration of Jim Henson's meteoric rise, and Kevin's ultimate achievement of his goal to become part of the Henson family of puppeteers. In addition to puppeteering Elmo, Mr. Clash is arguably the creative force behind today's Sesame Street, producing, directing and traveling around the globe training other puppeteers.

Four Year Plan - 2011

In 2007 Queens Park Rangers, a small Football Club of West London, were bottom of England's Second League and 2 hours from bankruptcy. Just as the club faced liquidation, they were bought by billionaire businessmen. Filmed in an observational fashion from a poetic distance, the documentary follows the larger than life and high profile characters who put their money and reputations on the line through 4 tumultuous years of enormous ups and downs. For 98 dramatic minutes we are given unprecedented access and remarkable insight into the worlds of sport, business, finance, power and ego - culminating in success in 2011, when QPR won promotion to the Premier League and the four year plan - set out by the owners in 2007 - was spectacularly achieved.

I Think We're Alone Now - 2008

Every celebrity deals with his or her share of obsessed fans. "I Think We're Alone Now" is a documentary that focuses on two individuals, Jeff and Kelly, who claim to be in love with the 80's pop singer Tiffany. Jeff Turner, a 50-year-old man from Santa Cruz, California has attended Tiffany concerts since 1988. Diagnosed with Asperger's syndrome, he never had a girlfriend. Jeff spends his days hanging out on the streets of Santa Cruz, striking up conversations with anyone who has a moment to spare. Kelly McCormick is a 38-year-old hermaphrodite from Denver, Colorado, who claims to have been friends with Tiffany as a teenager. She credits Tiffany as the shining star who has motivated her to do everything in her life. Both Jeff and Kelly have been labeled stalkers by the media and other Tiffany fans. This film takes you inside the lonely lives these two characters, revealing the source of their clinging obsessions. This age-old story of unrequited love takes a comedic and emotional trip.

Uprising - LA Riots - 2012

The People Vs George Lucas - 2010

Uses a courtroom debate approach to explore the issues of filmmaking and fanaticism around one of the industry's most famous franchises and its creator. The innovative film combines filmmaker and celebrity interviews with fan films - submitted via the film's site - to make this the world's first digitally democratic feature documentary.

Game Of Honor - 2011

Extremely entertaining documentary taking a look at the rival football game between Army and Navy. Most sports documentaries might dig into the history of the rival, the fans hatred of each other or some sort of other events but this one here is quite different because the players themselves are different. We see the full 2011 season for the two squads but the football stuff is actually the least interesting bit. What makes the film worth watching is the behind-the-scenes look at what it takes to play football at these places. Not only do they have to train to play football but they are also full-time students, training for deployment and of course knowing that their five years after graduation will possibly put them into a war zone.

Trouble The Waters - 2008

A redemptive tale of an aspiring rap artist surviving failed levees and her own troubled past and seizing a chance for a new beginning.

Sonicsgate - 2009

"Sonicsgate" is a feature documentary film exposing the truth behind how Seattle lost the SuperSonics after a heated legal battle in 2008. The perfect storm of corporate greed and political impotence formed to rob loyal Seattle sports fans of their oldest professional franchise. As NBA salaries skyrocketed following the 1999 player lockout, the league's business model changed to require expansive new buildings paid for with taxpayer dollars. Seattle's KeyArena, built in 1995 as a remodel of the old Seattle Coliseum, just wouldn't cut it anymore according to NBA Commissioner David Stern.

God Bless Ozzy Osbourne - 2011

Ozzy Osbourne's four decade track record as a culturally relevant artist is unprecedented, but his personal struggles have been shrouded in secrecy, until now. Featuring never before seen footage uncovered from the archives and interviews with Paul McCartney, Tommy Lee and others, God Bless Ozzy Osbourne is the first documentary to take viewers inside the complex mind of rock's great icon. Emerging from a working class family in war torn England, Osbourne and his neighborhood friends formed Black Sabbath and invented heavy metal. Plagued by self doubt, Osbourne the solo superstar went on a binge that lasted 40 years. God Bless Ozzy Osbourne will relive the highs of his triumphs as well as his journey to sobriety, which Ozzy regards as his greatest accomplishment.

Hearts of Darkness - 1991

Documents the sensational events surrounding the making of 'Apocalypse Now' and Francis Ford Coppola's struggle with nature, governments, actors, and self-doubt. Includes footage and sound secretly recorded by Elanor Coppola, wife of Francis.

An Unreasonable Man - 2006

A look at the career of consumer advocate Ralph Nader from wannabe presidential candidate to public pariah.

Jiro Dreams Of Sushi - 2011

In the basement of a Tokyo office building, 85 year old sushi master Jiro Ono works tirelessly in his world renowned restaurant, Sukiyabashi Jiro. As his son Yoshikazu faces the pressures of stepping into his father's shoes and taking over the legendary restaurant, Jiro relentlessly pursues his lifelong quest to create the perfect piece of sushi.

Pulling John - 2009

John Brzenk is troubled by when to call it quits; should he retire when he is on top or wait until someone takes his title. After twenty-five solid years of total world domination, John Brzenk, is aware that his dethroning may be near, he just doesn't know the cause. As the prodigal arm wrestler, Brzenk excelled in a way that seemed humanly impossible. Hungry for the best arm wrestling competition, Brzenk traveled the world beating every opponent. With a humble and understated character, his legend supercedes him in the hearts of arm wrestlers in over 120 countries. Among the super warriors of arm wrestling are 2 titans from opposite ends of the world, bonded by one defining goal, to beat John.

Occupation: Fighter - 2011

Eight months in the life of a fighter, the film provides the opportunity to discover the MMA (Mixed Martial Arts) sport in a fresh and striking new light, revealing the life of a dedicated fighter on his way to the top. In times of hard labor and an infamously tough economy, this film inspires the very spirit of our existence... to never give up. Over the course of 8 months, we learn about the amount of sacrifice and suffering professional fighters have to go through in order to stay competitive. Moreover, the challenges of life such as dealing with stereotypes, financial situations, relationships, and injuries are portrayed as seen through the eyes of a top athlete and the people surrounding him. The storyline continues to intensify as we approach what happens after the 8th month: Fight day! Occupation: Fighter is a feature length documentary film by Andre Enzensberger and Bavayou Films featuring WEC veteran Chad 'Savage' George.

Jens Pulver: Driven - 2011

Jens Pulver: DRIVEN is an intimate feature documentary film about legendary mixed martial arts champion, Jens Pulver, who rose from a childhood laced with violence and substance abuse, to become one of the most loved and respected mixed martial arts fighters of all time. The film presents an in depth look into the fighter, and his life, past, present, and future as we follow his last march toward what could be his final bout.

Queen Of Versailles - 2012

A documentary that follows a billionaire couple as they begin construction on a mansion inspired by Versailles. During the next two years, their empire, fueled by the real estate bubble and cheap money, falters due to the economic crisis.

The Imposter - 2012

A documentary centered on a young Frenchman who claims to a grieving Texas family that he is their 16-year-old son who has been missing for 3 years.

Project Nim - 2011

Tells the story of a chimpanzee taken from its mother at birth and raised like a human child by a family in a brownstone on the upper West Side in the 1970s.

The Staircase - 2004 (warning: 10 hour documentary)

Academy Award-winning documentary filmmaker, Jean-Xavier de Lestrade, presents a gripping courtroom thriller, offering a rare and revealing inside look at a high-profile murder trial. In 2001, author Michael Peterson was arraigned for the murder of his wife Kathleen, whose body was discovered lying in a pool of blood on the stairway of their home. Granted unusual access to Peterson's lawyers, home and immediate family, de Lestrade's cameras capture the defense team as it considers its strategic options. "The staircase" is an engrossing look at contemporary American justice that features more twists than a legal bestseller.

The Last Gladiators - 2012

In ice hockey, no one is tougher than the "goon". Those players have one mission: to protect the star players at any price.

As I usually say at the end of these lists, that should keep you busy for a while.

The 1-Year Later Josh Hamilton Post

2013-05-09T09:24:00.004-05:00

Yesterday, May 8, was the 1-year anniversary of one of the most memorable nights in DFW sports history. Twas the night that Josh Hamilton hit 4 Home Runs in 5 at bats at Baltimore.

They were all 2-run homers and it marked only the 16th time in the history of baseball that 4 home runs were hit in the same game and it rocked the sports world. Not only that, but the 8 RBIs were his new career high and the 18 total bases on the night against the Orioles was an all-time American League Record.

It continued a run of fantastic play in 2012 that seemed like it might go on for the entire summer following the 2011 World Series where Josh appeared to have won with a Home Run late in Game 6 until bad things happened.

Here are reminders of the heroics on May 8, 2012:

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People that occasionally knee jerk (I look in the mirror), have these discussions in front of live microphones. I am pretty sure I was ready to rush to his representatives the next day and figure out this negotiation that had troubled the public for quite a while before that evening.

Caution was being thrown to the wind. He was so good that we should ignore all of the warning signs that things could end without much notice.

That night raised his average to .406, his OBP to .458, his slugging to a Bonds/Ruth-like .840, and his OPS to 1.298. He sat at 14 Home Runs, with 36 RBIs, and a strikeout rate at 19.8%.

He clearly had issues to consider that made Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, or Jayson Werth's contracts seem unreasonable comparisons, but both sides - assuming they wanted to extend their relationship, would have to find numbers to work with on a new post-arbitration contract to get him that cash that he has worked hard to attain.

If you can remember back that far, he certainly was not against saying things that gave you pause. The latest, after his "issues" that popped up before spring training in 2012, were that there would be no "home town discount" to stay with the Rangers. They were not owed anything by his calculations which may have been his sincere feelings or just negotiation tactics. Either way, they were not well received when most observers had seen the Rangers bend over backwards to accommodate him. They did, and to this point in time, he had not let them down in 4 years and change with the Rangers.

Here were his career numbers from 2008-May 8, 2012 with the Rangers:

Games	ABs	HRs/RBIs	AVG/OBP/SLUG	OPS	K Rate
526	2071	113/414	.316/.370/.556	.927	19.9%

And, again, here were his numbers from 2012 on May 9, 2012:

Games	ABs	HRs/RBIs	AVG/OBP/SLUG	OPS	K Rate
27	106	14/36	.406/.458/.840	1.298	19.8%

I am always fascinated by the negotiation in sports. It is something that we have a hard time relating because in the world most of us live in, it is all based on past performance. We do things well, and it is generally assumed that we continue to do things well in the business world because our speed or hand-eye coordination shouldn't affect our ability to sell or buy or broadcast.

Sure, the employer looks at age with some consideration, but compared to a professional athlete, that seems like a distinct difference, and then compound it with Josh's very complex backstory.

He needed a contract. One that would carry him from 2013 (when he turns 32 on May 21) to the end of his productive years. If he could get 8-10 years like everyone else, he would try, but we would find out that the Angels bid 5 years and we really have very little proof of whether there even was a 2nd bidder to know if they merely outbid themselves.

Anyway, back to last year. He would remain red hot through the month of May and here were his numbers on June 1, 2012:

Games	ABs	HRs/RBIs	AVG/OBP/SLUG	OPS	K Rate
48	186	21/57	.366/.417/.758	1.175	21.5%

And somehow around there is where the "things" started happening. Tough to go back and list them all, but there were contact lenses, energy drinks, lethargy, tobacco, and a list of things that made guys like me put him in the Dez Bryant "it is always something with this guy" bin.

It absolutely affected his play, but his numbers, even when playing poorly still looked pretty strong in certain categories. Here is what the numbers from June 1 - the end of 2012 looked like:

Games	ABs	HRs/RBIs	AVG/OBP/SLUG	OPS	K Rate
101	380	22/71	.245/.322/.487	.809	32.3%

Again, a stat line of 22 home runs and 71 RBIs is a real nice season for most players. If we are going to say this is only 4 months of a year and that it is supposed to be shockingly pathetic, you can understand some people wondering if you are being reasonable.

Here is the whole of 2012 that the Rangers' brass had to chew on against the moment in Oakland that has become his defining last moment as a Ranger:

Games	ABs	HRs/RBIs	AVG/OBP/SLUG	OPS	K Rate
148	562	43/128	.285/.354/.577	.930	28.8%

versus this:

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So, by the end of the year, Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan had to make a decision. I am reasonably sure that there were never real sincere efforts by JD to sign up for more years with Hamilton here. Nolan has given indications since then that he was more interested, but even that is difficult to pin down.

The Angels put a giant 5 year/$125m deal on Josh and of course, since then we have heard Josh alienate the city with his thoughts on DFW being a "baseball town" or not.

That makes for good copy, but if he puts up another year of 43 HRs and 128 RBIs, there is a pretty good chance the Angels win big and his comments are but a footnote.

But, because his play from June 1 to the end of the season in 2012 appears to have relocated in Anaheim, the mystery of what the next 5 years will be like in California has become a daily discussion in Texas.

Make no mistake - he, just 1-year ago today, was a fan favorite. Maybe, he was THE fan favorite. At least on a national level, he was the face of the Texas Rangers.

He has since left and returned to boos. It looks like another absolute stroke of genius from Daniels, a guy who appears to be incapable of getting decisions like these wrong anymore. Josh has started very slow in Anaheim so far this season. Very slow. Even with a home run yesterday in Houston, here is why the good people of Orange County are freaking out:

Games	ABs	HRs/RBIs	AVG/OBP/SLUG	OPS	K Rate
33	132	3/10	.205/.255/.311	.566	30.3%

The numbers for the last year from May 9 to May 9 will not be as stunning as June 1 to June 1, we assume, but given his very poor start in Anaheim, we can now look at the last 365 days from Josh.

Josh Hamilton, May 9, 2012 through May 9, 2013:

Games	ABs	HRs/RBIs	AVG/OBP/SLUG	OPS	K Rate
154	588	32/102	.245/.313/.469	.783	30.7%

Again, for ease, here are the numbers from 2008 - May 8, 2012 (what looks like you would assume a $25 million player produces):

Games	ABs	HRs/RBIs	AVG/OBP/SLUG	OPS	K Rate
526	2071	113/414	.316/.370/.556	.927	19.9%

And then, here are the American League Averages for this year for the entire league:

AVG/OBP/SLUG	OPS	K Rate
.255/.321/.411	.732	22.5%

This tells you that he has dropped substantially in most numbers, and that power advantage he has will largely disappear when we go June 1 to June 1 in a few weeks.

It is way early to declare a 5-year contract a failure before Mother's Day of season 1. But, he is a player who said himself that:

"When I feel a sense of urgency, I do worse. I need to keep working the process, have good early work and cage sessions, and when it clicks it will click."

"Every day I get to play a game for a living, I have fun," Hamilton said. "It's no fun when you stress about every pitch, every at-bat. If you have fun, you'll play to the best of your ability. It's going to come eventually. It's not there yet. Stress just prolongs things."

He is way better than he is showing, but you do wonder if the Rangers got out at just the right time on this highly volatile stock.

Early returns seem to indicate as much.

Bag of Pucks - May 7

2013-05-07T09:26:00.002-05:00

If there is one thing clear about the NHL Playoffs, it is that it is riveting and addicting in short order. If there is another thing clear about the NHL Playoffs, it is that if your team is not in it, it is just not the same.

I can remember an actual time around here where the playoffs were taken for granted. The Stars entered every season guaranteed that they were going to the post-season, the question from October on was simply what seed were they going to be? Would they get home ice in the first 2 rounds or all the way throughout the playoffs? Was there an easier road with match-ups, or do we just let the chips fall where they may?

Having worked in sports radio in Dallas-Fort Worth since 1998, I can honestly tell you that I remember in our daily show meetings that there were times after a playoff game that we had better things to do then break down "just a 1st round game" the next day. Not proud of it, but as goofy as it seems now, hosting a Round 1 playoff game against Edmonton back in the day was not treated always as a big event. It was a routine event that was treated slightly more importantly than the regular season. It was going to happen and the Stars were going to win.

Wake me up when things get good in Round 2, was the attitude that seemed to exist in this city a 10-15 years back.

Well, we have learned. We have been served our helping of humble pie and then some. We have promised that we will never take a playoff berth for granted. What silly, entitled, and spoiled fans we may have become. And now, we beg for mercy and a chance to play again in the greatest tournament in sports.

Of course, that will have to wait until at least next year. And for now, we are left to sift through the rubble of what remains of a 5th successive season that ended short of the mark.

Before we close the book on 2012-13, which was actually only 2013, we should make sure we know where this team sits in some important statistics that have put them where they are. Some of this has been touched on in previous entries, but it doesn't hurt to throw it all in together now that we can see the season as a whole:

Goals Per Game - Starting with '08, the last time the Stars were in the playoffs.

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
2.89	2.73	2.80	2.71	2.49	2.67

Goals Against Per Game -

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
2.49	3.06	2.98	2.76	2.66	2.94

And obviously, in a game like hockey, if the number up top (Goals for) is smaller than the corresponding number below it (Goals against), then your team is struggling to win. And, this is the 5th season in a row that the issue has been as obvious as the sunrise.

But, let's dig deeper.

Shot Differential +/-

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
+50	+66	-35	-235	-212	-228

There is one major issue with the stat above, and that is that despite the numbers getting worse almost every year, we also have to deal with that small detail of shots per game as this last year was merely 48 games and the other seasons were 82. Gulp. Let's look at it by shots per game.

Shot Differential Per Game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
+0.61	+0.80	-0.43	-2.87	-2.59	-4.75

Oh boy. That one smarts. We were under the impression that the 2013 team was better than the 2012 version. I guess this sets that one back a bit, doesn't it? If no metric in hockey correlates with winning like shot differential (actually shots attempted rather than shots on goal is the most ideal) then we have issues and they are getting worse.

So, why are they losing the shot differential? Are they shooting less or conceding more? Both.

Shots For Per Game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
26.7	28.9	30.8	27.7	28.2	26.3

Interesting to see that the offensive output this season was very low, despite more power plays, but on par with the numbers from the 2008 team that we all yearn for. The big drop has been on the other end.

Shots Against Per Game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
26.1	28.1	31.2	30.5	30.8	31.0

This is where we come back to the idea that the defense corps have never been properly replenished with quality since the good old days. This isn't goaltending. This is the fact that there is too much rubber being shot at Dallas nets. And it has been consistently bad since Mr Zubov left with Mr Boucher and Mr Norstrom back after the 2008 run.

Even Strength Goal Differential:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
+15	-9	-11	+1	+3	-7

This is another one that correlates to winning quite a bit. Are you the better team when the game is a 5-on-5 game and we leave special teams out of it? This was the calling card of the 2012 team, and that is why the theory was that if you improved the power play, you would get into the playoffs. Well, that worked, but even strength fell off considerably. Let's look at the Power Play.

Power Play Conversion %:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
18.1%	15.4%	18.6%	18.0%	13.5%	17.0%

So, they got the PP back to a reasonable spot, where they ranked 18th in the NHL as opposed to 30th, but they lost their gains at equal strength. But, percentages are only half the battle. What about opportunities? If you are never on the job, your percentages don't matter much.

Power Play Opportunities per game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
4.31	4.28	4.00	3.73	2.97	3.56

That is interesting. It was going down every year, and this season, the Stars drew far more power plays than in 2012. However, that number is still the 5th best out of 6 years. Power Plays increased as did the conversion rate, but it was not enough to overcome the shot differentials nor the equal strength issues.

Power Play Opportunities Against per game:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
4.32	3.98	3.51	3.38	3.69	3.72

Again, this game is way easier if you are on the job more than you are trying to kill off others power plays. This has really only been an issue in the post Brad Richards' era the last 2 years. This year was way better, but again, it is tough to draw penalties if you seldom have the puck. And the Stars, since Modano and Richards were great together back in 2008 and 2009, this team hasn't seen the puck as much as they need.

Penalty Kill Percentages:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
85.6%	78.6%	77.4%	80.1%	82.8%	81.0%

This has been something the Stars have desperately needed to improve upon, and they have done a solid job of getting better with. They ranked 17th this year, which is back from 2012 when they were 13th, but this has not been a real sore thumb in a few years.

Faceoff Win Percentage:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
50.4%	47.8%	48.1%	50%	49.1%	47.2%

As you know, this correlates to shot differential often, as you can't shoot if you don't have the puck. And if you are losing face-offs as much as any team in hockey, you don't have the puck enough. We are a long way from the days of the Stars having Modano, Carbonneau, and Nieuwendyk down the middle for face-offs.

I could share more numbers, but I am guessing by now, you are paralyzed by these. One more is worth looking at, which is Points Back from the Playoffs:

Points Out of the Playoffs:

07-08	08-09	09-10	10-11	11-12	12-13
+6	-8	-7	-2	-6	-7

As you can see, in a 48 Game season, finishing 7 points out is the equivalent of 12 points out in a normal length season.

There are plenty of things that need to be done to improve, but as we hear rhetoric about different ways to improve, you might like to have this bookmarked to compare the discussion with the raw numbers.

Cowboys Mailbag - May 6 - Draft Aftermath

2013-05-06T08:54:00.001-05:00

So much to dive into today so let's just get to your emails:

Loved your thoughtful analysis of the draft in your 4-29 post. Here is my question. Lots of folks say DL is a "need" for the Cowboys but I don't understand why. They have Ware, Ratliff, Hatcher, and Spencer as the starters. Then they have two of last years picks (Crawford and Wilber) as young talent on DL. Lissemore also seems fairly solid. Not saying they can't improve there, but I didn't see it as a glaring need the same way OL was. Thoughts?

Manish

This is a great place to start. The question remains whether or not the Cowboys actually have a weakness at defensive line and it looks like most observers are torn on this question. I am not torn, because I am extremely troubled by many elements of this transition from the 3-4 to the 4-3, and the defensive line's lack of depth troubles me the most.

That, of course is why the issues from Pick #18 will be long remembered. If Rod Marinelli and Monte Kiffin truly believe that it is wasteful to take a 1 technique in the 1st round - as has been suggested - and they didn't believe there was a true 3-technique left on the board (that Sharrif Floyd was merely a 1-tech and not a 3-tech like the football personnel department believed) then you have the incredibly uncommon likelihood that Marinelli and Kiffin were arguing against taking a player that would have helped them and instead taking offensive players with the first 3 picks.

This is either noble or insane. I have never heard of positional coaches arguing against adding better players to their group, but by all accounts this is exactly what happened. Meanwhile, Floyd is 20 years old and it seems like you could turn him into whatever you want him to be with proper coaching and development, but then again, Marinelli has at least been a head coach in this league and we should assume he has some idea of what goes into that (no 0-16 jokes, please).

The issues with Marinelli and Kiffin having major input is merely the timing. It keeps coming back to the question of why this disagreement reared up on draft night. They have months of meetings, we believe, and from the Senior Bowl and Combine to draft night there are internal meetings that go on endlessly. How this throwdown between Marinelli and scouting didn't happen in late March instead of when the Cowboys were on the clock will never stop being a wonder. And, if, as it is portrayed, the scouts did a year of work on this player and a positional coach (and a new one) rolls in at the last minute and gets in Jerry's ear is really how the scouts work is valued at Valley Ranch, then we are left with the same conclusions that this entire organizational process is broken beyond repair.

Back to the question from Manish about the relative weakness at DL, this is based on age and contracts. The starting 4 across the line includes players we all know and respect. DeMarcus Ware, Jason Hatcher, Jay Ratliff, and Anthony Spencer.

Now, if Sharrif Floyd is a 1-technique by their standards, who is the 1-tech and who is the 3-tech here? In other words, one reason why the 4-3 is appealing is to get Ratliff away from the double teams and 1 on 1 against a guard, which is what the 3-tech is all about. But, as far as I can tell, Jason Hatcher must be their plan at 3-tech, because he has no place as a 1-tech shade in the A-gap between the guard and center. Hatcher has been a passing down sub for his entire career, because he has not been seen as a run down solution. So, to be a run down sub out, and then suddenly thrust into the 1-tech seems crazy. But, if Ratliff is still that guy, then we are asking a guy who had his body break down in 2012 to continue to be a sluggo who is dealing with double teams despite the scheme change and you lose his upside at this advanced time of his career.

Meanwhile, with 2 defensive ends who are 260 or so, we think we know how Spencer and Ware will do, but we are just guessing. It is projected that it will work, but remember that Marinelli, for instance, is coming from a place in Chicago where he ran this defense with 2 defensive ends in Julius Peppers and Corey Wooten or Israel Idonije who were all considerably heavier and taller than what the Cowboys are trying to do.

And that, of course, says nothing about the idea that Spencer and Hatcher are both about to head into free agency and that Ratliff and Ware are both over 30. Ware is the most likely to still be here in 2015, but you can see how you might want to start finding replacements for all of them.

So, what is behind them right now? Tyrone Crawford is the guy that people inside the organization feel the best about, and since he is their 3rd round pick from last season, we better not forget him. He played 300 snaps last season and while he did not do anything that knocked socks off, he also did not look out of place. Add to him another 2nd year man in Kyle Wilber (even smaller at under 250) who they think can play defensive end as their replacement and inside man Sean Lissemore and that is pretty much their group right now.

Is it as big a mess as the offensive line was? Not really, unless you are concerned with what is around the next corner. The offensive line is present tense, but the defensive line is more of a future tense issue. However, what has killed the Cowboys? Lack of depth to deal with an injury. And if Ratliff pulls up lame in training camp, what is the plan? Full-time Lissemore at the 1-tech? It looks like it would have to be.

I have no issue with trading back to get 2 starters for pick #18 because actually that makes sound common sense. The issue is then spending your top 3 picks and really your entire draft without doing anything to help this group at all. I find that flirting with disaster and don't forget what we talked about last fall after the Offensive Line situation reared its head against Cleveland again:

It isn't coaching. It isn't effort.

It is, however, another indictment on the continuing failures of this current front office. I am sure when the 2012 season ends, like the secondary last spring, we will hear how fixing the offensive line in 2013 is the top priority. And they will use many of their resources to attempt to do just that. But, why it takes years for them to see things that are obvious to those watching their games remains a mystery.

Then, if it is fixed, the shell game of personnel fixes will move to another department of the squad that will be overdue for renovations, too. These are the effects of too many mistakes over the years in the personnel department. The holes out-number the plugs, and before long, you have issues that cannot be addressed because you are out of picks and cap space.

Once you leave the port each August for another season at sea, you cannot replenish your supplies until the season voyage is over. Meanwhile, in the middle of it, you are stuck with whatever you took with you. From week to week, as people complain about the coaching and the players, those who remain on the voyage do the best with what they have. But, clearly, what they have is not good enough, and no amount of effort is going to fix the issues for the long-term.

In 2013, they will leave port with a defensive line that might work but the best case/worst case scenarios are wildly problematic if there is one false step this year.

=====

Just some random observations on another massively confusing Cowboy draft:

(1) Just for grins, I looked up the Ravens Super Bowl offensive line to see when they were drafted and by whom.

Oher (BAL, 1st round in 2009), Osemele (BAL, 2nd in 2012), Yanda (BAL, 3rd in 2007). That's right, three of the five Super Bowl starters were young guys drafted in the first three rounds. Another high pick, Jah Reid (BAL, 3rd in 2011), would have started in the Super Bowl but for a season-ending foot injury right before the playoffs. By the way, with Matt Birk's retirement, another young homegrown player, Gino Gradkowski (BAL, early 4th in 2012), is slated to take over at center. That's an entire line of guys taken in the first hundred picks, in the last five or six years. Compare that to the Dallas model -- bottom sixty picks and undrafted FAs, coupled with high-dollar, low-skill FAs. Draw your own conclusions.

(2) Dallas is making a monumental leap of faith that Ware and Spencer will transform from edge 3-4 OLBs into over-the-end-or-tackle ends in a 4-3. The Cowboy front office has even intimated that Ware and Spencer will be used like JPP in New York, which means moving him inside and out, all along the line. But JPP has about 30 lbs. on each of Ware and Spencer. And he's 24. I just don't see Ware or Spencer holding up in anything like the same role. Yet that seems to be the linchpin of Jerry's entire defensive plan. And don't even mention the aging, declining Jay Ratliff.

Dave in Tulsa

Thanks, Dave. In the week's to come, I plan on taking apart some of Kiffin's playbook and scheme in a little more depth to discuss how this can work. Hint: a lot of what they do is based on keeping their linebackers clean to fly and make more of the plays - especially the Mic and Will. But, it also is predicated on getting home with 4 most of the time and that will continue to be where the rubber meets the road on this particular issue.

As for investment on the "bigs" over the skill guys, there is no question that this is not of interest to Jerry Jones and no matter how long I write about the Cowboys investing in WR, CB, RB, and TE, will always outnumber their investment in DE, T, G, and DT, it won't change it.

Here is one of the many places I have discussed it over the years how teams like the Ravens, 49ers, and Giants have spent a lot of time in recent years investing in "bigs". But, after taking big Frederick this year, the Cowboys then went TE, WR, S, CB, RB with the next 5 picks. They are who they are and that won't change when the decision maker hasn't changed.

=====

Please clarify which is better: a fast 40 time for a Center or a guy who can squat over 730 lbs?

I would take the latter, if may sound contrarian to most people who want a really fast Center. Although running fast is not in the job description but being able to fire off is ideal for centers.

My two cents,

Bob

You have my full support on this. I think Travis Frederick is going to be a solid addition to the Cowboys and I have no concerns about his speed. He is a guy Wisconsin pulled in front of Montee Ball on many sweeps and he was proficient at what he did.

But, his real pros are his ability to be strong, and although I have heard a media member or two question his strength, I can assure you it is not an issue. He is football strong and weight room strong, and perhaps this story from a few years back would be of interest to anyone questioning it.

What happens in the weight room, stays in the weight room.

That explains why sophomore left guard Travis Frederick would have been happy if University of Wisconsin football coach Bret Bielema didn’t tell the world that Frederick squatted 730 pounds in the spring.

Frederick, who carries 330 pounds on his 6‑foot‑4 frame, is proud of the staggering accomplishment. In the weight room, players are driven by numbers, always trying to set personal marks or reach new goals. Even a new best by five pounds can set off a wild celebration.

Even the other offensive linemen are amazed at the things Frederick can do in the weight room.

“He is by far the strongest, most bear-like human being I’ve ever seen, or had the pleasure of being around,” senior right guard Kevin Zeitler said.

For some perspective, the combined weight of UW’s starting linebackers is 715 pounds. So it’s like Frederick strapped those three to his back and did a deep-knee bend.

“He’s sick,” sophomore guard-center Ryan Groy said. “I don’t even want to watch him when he does that kind of weight. That’s not human.”

Offensive line coach Bob Bostad emphasizes squat totals in recruiting, since leg and core strength are integral to playing the position.

Frederick will have to prove he is quick enough to seal off the gaps against quick, but against big, he will be fine.

Thanks for your emails. We will do more again soon.

Do Draft Grades Mean Anything?

2013-05-03T08:32:00.000-05:00

The short answer is yes.

Hello, sports fans. TC Fleming here. Football Outsiders released their annual Draft Report Card Report this week. They've been doing those since 2004. Theirs is an interesting study. They look at eight respected national writers who give out draft grades and average those to generate a consensus on each team's draft. You can see the logic: one guy saying 'I think this Packers draft class stinks" means essentially nothing. But taking eight people who have spent a lot of time getting familiar with these prospects and seeing if their collective wisdom can tell us something, that has possibilities.

I was honestly surprised they hadn't looked into how these draft grades correlate to the production of the draft classes after the fact. I had some time, so I checked into it.

To measure the production of those draft classes, I used the Approximate Value (AV) stat from Pro Football Reference. It's a stat trying to provide one uniform scale to measure performance across all positions, so it's going to have its flaws (eg ranking Joseph Addai as the 10th-best player in the 2006 draft). It fits our purposes though. We're just looking for a wide-angle look at whether or not teams drafted players that contributed to their team.

Pro Football Reference has an exceptionally handy page on each draft where they list the AV that each player accumulated while with the team that drafted. I pasted those into Excel and added up the totals for each draft for each team. I decided to use only the 2005 through 2009 drafts. Anything more recent than that and I was afraid we'd be dealing with too many guys on whom the book is still out.

While I was compiling this list of AV totals for each team's draft classes, I noticed that there was a large gap between the totals from 2005 and the totals from 2009. That makes sense, since the 2005 players have had more opportunities to accumulate value. I was afraid this would add another variable and artificially disrupt the correlation factor. So I graded on a curve. I added together the total AV for each year's entire draft, averaged those numbers together, divided that average by the total AV for each year's draft and then multiplied the team totals by that factor.

In the end, the Approximate Value for a team's draft showed a correlation of about .36. It's on a scale of zero to one where zero is no relation and one is a direct relation. So collectively, draft experts know something. It's better than throwing darts. Draft grades don't say a lot, but you can't brush them off either.

What does this mean for the Cowboys? Well, they ranked dead last in this year's report. In the five years that I studied, the lowest-ranked team had a below-average AV total four times. In the lone outlier, Tennessee was docked by most experts for over-drafting a small school running back with their first pick, but Chris Johnson proved effective enough to make it a fairly valuable class. In every other instance, the experts were more or less right to say those classes were lackluster. The average draft class in this study produced 83 points of Approximate Value. If you look only at classes that experts ranked in the bottom five, that average drops to 59. Ranking so low does mean something. When experts scoff at your drafting, there is legitimate cause for concern. The lowest-ranked class rarely turns out to actually be the worst class, but it almost always turns out to be a bad class.

One bit of trivia: the Cowboys own both the highest and lowest for AV totals for a single draft class. The 2005 class that produced five regular starters (DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, Chris Canty, Marion Barber and Jay Ratliff) is the most productive on record. And looking through these, I was surprised at how few regular starters teams pick up in a single draft class. When you consider that there are 22 starters for each game and that football careers are so short, I would figure that there would be a team every year that found five starters in one class. Not the case. The 2009 class, on the other hand, famously produced nothing of value. The AV total for 2009 was 15. That is the lowest AV total in this study, but I would argue it's not the worst draft class. The Lions in 2005 had a much better selection of picks than the '09 Cowboys and produced only 18 AV points. That was the year they picked an out-of-football Mike Williams who was cut after two seasons. Shaun Cody was their second rounder, and he's become a decent player with Houston. However, he started just 12 games in four years while playing on some really bad teams. So I'd call that Cowboys '09 class the second-worst.

Jake and I talked about this little project on our podcast if you'd like to hear a little more.

And in the interest of showing my work, here's the spreadsheet I put together.

What Are We Doing at RT? The Tyson Clabo Report

2013-05-02T09:24:00.001-05:00

Now that the smoke has cleared from the draft weekend, we believe that the Cowboys are doing what they claimed they would be doing this week: Trying to sort through their right tackle situation.

This is clearly difficult when your stated objectives seem to be to handle it at a really cheap price, given the lack of cap room this year, but more importantly are the cap issues that lie ahead after the 2013 season. This limits the Cowboys to a series of 1-year solutions at right tackle, and frankly, when those are the parameters of your search, your options all have flaws or issues.

The least difficult solution at right tackle is to go back to the Doug Free well. The reason that this is easy is obviously because he is already under contract, is likely to agree to a pay cut, and you are familiar with his realities. Of course, you are also familiar with the fact that he led all NFL tackles with 15 penalties and conceded 6 sacks, 4 hits, and 41 QB hurries in 2012.

On the other hand, Free did finish 2012 with 3 consecutive games of very solid play as games against the Steelers, Saints, and Redskins all were almost completely clean from just about every perspective. Free seldom struggles in the running game, so all of his issues start with his feet and his difficulty in closing the edge off on pass rush. Even the penalties start there as he is usually cheating the snap and trying to get an extra step against pass rushers so he false starts.

Free is 29 and expensive, but I assume the Cowboys can give him a rather large hair-cut and he will accept it because this is no time to be looking for a job. In fact, the timing of this couldn't not be better from that perspective if you are the Cowboys. Eric Winston and Tyson Clabo have been free agents for a month now, and since they have both gone unsigned, you can see how Free must be doing the math in his head. Here, if he takes a pay cut, you would assume RT would be his job to lose. On the street, he is looking at a minimum deal and a chance to compete for a job after June 1. He really is in a bind and the Cowboys can use that against him to a point.

However, let's say they are determined to "fix" this spot and really improve the offensive line with the additions of Travis Frederick and a new Right Tackle who can give them strong play. I confess that they would really fix their issues offensively if Free and center were suddenly upgraded.

And that leads us to Winston and Clabo. After talking with a few people in NFL Personnel, the discussion rather quickly dismisses Winston as an upgrade. One simply said, "That wouldn't be an upgrade at all." It wasn't long ago that Eric Winston was thought of as solid down in Houston, but the feeling in the league right now is that he would be a solid backup option.

So, to Tyson Clabo, where there the word is not as unkind. I decided to break down his last 2 games for the Falcons and then an overview of his year in Atlanta before they released him on April 4 as a June 1-cut designation.

Before 2011, Clabo was given a 5-year deal for $25 million with $11.5m guaranteed. The base salaries were low in 2011 and 2012, but from 2013-2015, they would head north to $4.5m per. The Falcons are, of course, a team that is constructed in a way where they are young and building. One of the byproducts of that is needing to put some big numbers on "QB1" Matt Ryan, and to do that, they need cap space. With Clabo 31 years old, they see him as a replaceable veteran with 2 former 3rd Round picks ready to battle it out to play RT for the Falcons in 2013 at a significantly cheaper price.

But, in looking at Clabo from a Cowboys perspective, the questions are as follows:

1) - Is he an upgrade from Doug Free

Yes. I think he has shown that he is a very good pass protector on the edge. He had a disaster game against Carolina in Week 4 when Charles Johnson ate him for dinner (3 sacks against Clabo, 4 sacks in the game) but after that Clabo is not debited with a single sack against for the rest of the year. In the running game, he might be slightly less that Free as far as running to space, but in the zone blocking scheme, he is fine on play-side and on the back-side his expertise in the cut block has landed him on the NFL's "dirtiest players" lists several times for chopping linemen down.

He played both Seattle and San Francisco in the playoffs last January and both of those sides can really stress you with their pass rushes. He was absolutely fine in both games against the edge rushing, so much so that in many cases, they attacked elsewhere on the line and only half-heartedly attacked Clabo. Ray McDonald did have a strength advantage against Clabo on a few plays - mostly on the run - but, that is a very large and strong player who will do that against most challengers.

Clabo seldom had help and seldom needed it (he committed just 5 penalties in 2012). He really looked strong in all of his pass protection sets and was giving the Falcons plenty to help hold up Ryan's strong side. I think he would be a tremendous upgrade from Free for a team that wants to pass 40 times a game. He will give up some pressure on occasion, but most weeks, he gave the Falcons plenty of protection on the right flank.

2) - Is he a candidate for a 1-year, $3m or $4m deal?

I kind of doubt it. And this is the tug-o-war that is going on with Clabo and his suitors. I am sure he thinks he is worth a multiple year deal at his going rate (say, 3-years /$15 million) and teams around the league all have tackles and/or cap issues. Once you sort through and find teams with both a need a tackle and cap room, your options are limited as a player - even one who has been to many pro bowls and has played well for 8 years on a playoff team.

But, I assume there is a happy medium and it looks like Miami is knocking on his door pretty hard. They might be playing the same game by using Winston and Clabo (and Bryant McKinnie) all against each-other in a game of poker to see who will take the least years and the least money. Miami also needs a tackle after losing Jake Long to St Louis this year and needing another starting tackle, too.

The Cowboys absolutely want a 1-year deal with Clabo, I suspect. There is no doubt that his camp is holding on to the idea that he has earned more than that. He is an upgrade from Free, but given the storm clouds of cap issues hitting them again next winter, I figure they want to use their cap surplus that they currently have (almost $5m after the Romo deal) but not dip into 2014 funds if possible.

If it is an issue of upgrading this OL, then I think you go get Tyson Clabo on a deal if you can get a 1-year deal or a multiple year deal with limited money guaranteed in year 2 or year 3. But, football issues are always balanced against cap issues, and that is why we know the Cowboys will be careful not to get crazy. Miami controls this game with their money, and if they bid too high on Clabo, expect Free to be your right tackle in 2013.

Bag of Pucks - April 30 - Jim Nill Edition

2013-04-30T10:31:00.000-05:00

It was a bizarre night on Saturday evening when the Stars were playing out the string against Detroit in an arena full of red and equally of defeat for anyone who loves hockey in Dallas.

For what seems like the umpteenth time in a row, the Stars fight and claw and come up short. Actually, it was only the 5th season in a row, but after they spoiled us by showing success virtually anytime they wanted in the first 15 years in town, the Dallas Stars have hit a dead end. Again. And Again.

Trying to figure out where the Stars took a wrong turn after their fantastic run in the 2008 playoffs, there are certainly plenty of events that strung together in succession. Was it the retirement of Sergei Zubov and 2 other significant defensemen at the same time? Was it the ill-advised signing of Sean Avery that summer when most of the league wouldn't touch him? Was it the firing of Dave Tippett when he had only missed the playoffs one time in his six seasons in Dallas (you know, the season you gave him Sean Avery in the middle of his room and took Zubov away)? Was it the bankruptcy and embarrassing manner in which Tom Hicks left the franchise? Was it cranking the payroll back significantly year after year (from over $70m to down to the bare minimum the league allows)? Was it firing Doug Armstrong in the first place?

We could go on. But, the point is this thing was broken down to where whoever took the job over was going to have to pitch a perfect game to get out of that mess. And even that might not have been enough.

So, when Joe Nieuwendyk was dismissed on Saturday Night in a way that was a bit unfortunate (it appears he found out the same way we did, via reporters in Canada), it struck me as less than a fair way to summarize his 4 years here in Dallas.

Now, in the interest of being open, I am a big Joe Nieuwendyk supporter because of the way he conducts his business going back to the first time I met him upon coming to Dallas in 1998. He has always been 100% class and seemed perfect for this type of position when he was done playing. He inherited a chance at being a general manager in the NHL, but was certainly not lucky enough to inherit one where the odds were stacked in his favor.

He made some major mis-steps along the way, but also some significant positive moves. The fans began to associate him with the dire times inside the organization which seems incredibly misdirected, but that is the nature of the beast. The owner makes a major mess of everything and then shoves his representatives out to deal with the angry public. They do the best they can, because they are lucky enough to have a high ranking spot in the NHL, knowing full well that they are on borrowed time because the entire thing was broken and not set for success with 1st class organizations that they must compete with.

Nieuwendyk's first decision might have been the one that bit him the most, looking back, when he fired Tippett immediately to get his guy in as coach. Let's be honest, watching the duo of Armstrong and Tippett find success in their very next gigs after leaving Dallas doesn't help any of us feel better about how this thing has gone. Both coaches that Nieuwendyk hired looked the part as reasonable hires, but the fact that the results never were found doesn't help, either.

The trades have been gone over and for every Goligoski complaint, there should be an equally loud Lehtonen cheer, but it seldom seems that happens. The infusion of young talent that has been assembled suggests that Joe helped build the next wave of talent that is coming through the system and that will be reaped by his successor. Time will tell the quality and there are some first round pick decisions that I certainly continue to 2nd guess, but overall, this thing is in way better shape than Nieuwendyk found it.

But, the biggest thing I would say about his run is that we still don't know how he would do as a general manager with a full deck of cards. His payroll rankings when he was in charge were right there with the worst in the league and therefore to expect top notch results that compare to Bob Gainey and Doug Armstrong when they always had Top 5 payrolls and he had Bottom 5 payrolls is just flat-out ridiculous and unfair.

His biggest signing in free agency? Would you believe the small signing of Ray Whitney last summer for 2 years/$9 million (Remember: Brett Hull had $15.5 million to give Sean Avery and traded for the giant Brad Richards deal before that)? As a general manager in the NHL, to never have a free agent signing or acquisition that valued over that is incredible and uncommon. To judge his work with that millstone around his neck is silly. Now, yes, he did make the big signings of Goligoski, Benn, Lehtonen, and others inside the organization (many times to just get to the cap floor, mind you), but when this team need additions, it was always in the bargain bin.

So, they had no choice but to find bargains and turn refuse into chicken salad whenever possible. Sometimes, it worked well as guys like Brenden Dillon get me very excited, but other times you are led to believe that Joe will be hard pressed to have the odds stacked more against him in his next gig.

It was destined to fail, regardless of the GM. In a sense, Armstrong is lucky he found a new home in St Louis where they were serious about building a contender.

But, thankfully, Tom Hicks was forced out of business. He had done enough damage to erase the good he helped create a decade earlier. And after the NHL ran the Stars for a short spell, enter Tom Gaglardi. At first, his best characteristic was that he was not the old guy. Slowly, we are seeing what he has on his list of objectives, and it does seem to include a thirst to build a winner.

Talk is cheap, though, and I always said we should give him a fair chance, but actions will always speak louder than words. Gaglardi has been in power for 18 months and although we have seen small signs of determined actions to make things right on the ice, it has been slow and calculated to get through the work stoppage and moving out assets that were expiring and making room for the kids.

He did not make changes on the hockey side until Saturday when he decided Joe and surely his hire at coach, Glen Gulatzan were done.

Now, to hear it told, there is some confusion about whether or not this move was made because Jim Nill was available or it the Stars were changing GM no matter who the successor was. In the end, that hardly matters, save for the history telling, but the since the entire league is responding to this hire with plaudits, it looks like they have quite a guy in the big chair here.

Pierre LeBrun from ESPN wrote about assistant general managers who were ready for the GM job back in February and listed Nill as his #1 guy:

1. Jim Nill, Detroit Red Wings: Now in his 15th season as assistant GM in Detroit, he has been GM material for a long time. And it just so happens that his contract will soon begin to present itself with annual six-week "out windows" when he can entertain GM offers from other teams, a source told ESPN.com. The first window comes this summer. With four Stanley Cup rings and a long list of late-draft gems on his resume, Nill is a top-notch candidate in waiting. It would have to be the right fit for him to leave Detroit, where he's happy and loyal to the Ilitch family, but it's a possibility. You can't go wrong if you name Nill as your GM. He'd be a superstar hire.

That is an amazing endorsement and should make everyone excited. But, maybe for different reasons than might be readily obvious.

I am fired up because a guy like Nill was only leaving Detroit if the move was perfect. And I assume to do that he was able to secure assurances from Gaglardi and Jim Lites that if he comes here, he will be given the resources to compete - and not just for the playoffs, but ultimately for a Cup.

Clearly, hiring someone from a top organization makes sense, and sometimes it works like when Oklahoma City hired Sam Presti from the San Antonio Spurs, and sometimes it doesn't like when the Cavaliers hired Danny Ferry from the Spurs.

But, Nill comes with confidence, experience, and hopefully the eye for talent that everyone credits him with from many days with Ken Holland and Jim Devellano who along with Scotty Bowman made Detroit into what it is today. They are the gold standard in hockey in the last 2 decades, so I have no problem stealing from the enemy who does it right.

He has a pretty solid youth system, a load of picks, and hopefully a stack of cash to make this thing happen. He also has a 5-year deal, so we should assume he will play the long game in fixing, which means no reckless plays early just because he has money. He will take his time and do what he needs to do to make sure this downturn in hockey ends with this hire.

As for Nieuwendyk, I know he will bounce back. I understand fans being mad at someone, but the venom directed at him is just not overly reasonable given what he had to work with. He inherited a bad situation and built a brighter future. Did he deserve another year? While I thought so, I also am fine with Gaglardi making a move if he things he needed a fresh start with his guys before he invests heavily in the future.

But, make no mistake: It will take heavy investment from the owner to win a Cup and to fill this arena again. The fans were misled for many years about whether this team was serious about winning or not, and ownership did not always practice what they preached. Fine. Water under the bridge.

As far as I am concerned, Gaglardi and Nill have a fresh start and the benefit of the doubt from me. As for many of you, I am sure they are going to have to win you back. And winning on the ice is the only way to do that.

NFL Draft 2013: Attempting To Analyze The Weekend

2013-04-28T23:17:00.003-05:00

Round	Pick	Overall
Rd 1	#31	Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
Rd 2	#47	Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego St
Rd 3	#74	Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor
Rd 3	#80	JJ Wilcox, S, Georgia Southern
Rd 4	#114	BW Webb, CB, William Mary
Rd 5	#151	Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma State
Rd 6	#185	DeVonte Holloman, LB, South Carolina
Rd 7	-----	Traded to Miami for Ryan Cook

Honestly, there is no question that is asked more of those of us who are blessed to cover the NFL than "How did you think the Cowboys did this weekend?" And, there is no question that EVERYONE is less equipped to answer.

Seriously.

Think about how few people that would be acquainted with the depth charts and situations of all 32 teams so that they can release grades relative to the rest of the league. Then, think of all of the people on the planet who would be familiar - and I mean really familiar - with the 254 players chosen in this draft. I think it is hard enough to zero in on the top 100 players and just the depth chart of the Dallas Cowboys. I spend a few hours a day for about 3 straight months trying to watch and absorb as much information as I can. That comes out to a ton of time spent watching college games and studying the players as best I can. And I had almost nothing on 4 of the 7 players the Cowboys selected over the weekend. And when I say almost nothing, I hadn't watched a single San Diego State game, talked to a single scout about Gavin Escobar, and honestly didn't know much about him except what I had read. And that was their 2nd round pick! Think about how little I had in my head or files about B.W. Webb.

I admit all of this to simply show a little honesty as a media member that hopefully has earned your trust over the years, and then tries to take that responsibility seriously. If there is anyone who claims they have done their homework on all 254 players and their homework to study the depth chart, cap situation, and football issues with all 32 teams - then they are wasting their time in the media. They should really be personnel experts in the NFL.

And yet, everywhere I look, here is another media guy grading all 32 teams! With what information? That makes no sense to me and I refuse to participate in what amounts to gathering military intelligence about the middle east by watching cable news. It is an insult to those media departments who employ a dozen guys who evaluate talent all day, every day, for 12 months a year to grade their performance based on 5 minutes of youtube highlights and whether or not they drafted a local player from a college I watch on Saturdays and maybe remember 5 of his college plays. I find that sort of guess work silly and think that you should try to avoid those who attempt to tell you who the "winners and losers" over the weekend are. They are surely taking wild guesses and are seldom willing to share their grading mis-steps from previous drafts. If getting a good grade from the media means taking guys they have heard of, then this is all a waste of time.

I attempt to not feed the monster. And yet, this is my job. To gather as much information as I can and to in some ways evaluate what the Cowboys did with their resources to try to improve their team in the quickest and most efficient way possible, which is by doing well on draft weekend.

So a bit further below, I throw caution to the wind and attempt to do what I just admitted is nearly impossible to accomplish properly:

=====

First, an overall positioning statement on how this whole thing works. I don't believe you can properly evaluate a pick without looking at things from a macro point of view. Like spending too much time on one play in a full game, to discuss one pick from one draft when you are attempting to construct a competitive team in a very competitive league is very difficult.

The fact is that the best-run organizations in football botch picks routinely. They all have horror stories of misevaluation because this is a very difficult process to choose young men and try to project the next decade of their lives. It is a very physical game that requires health and a complex game that requires development and progress through coaching and self-motivation. To simply assume that a player would turn out the same regardless of where he is drafted is silliness. If John Elway was traded on draft day of 1983 to the Cowboys, we have no idea what would have happened. We do know, though, that the Cowboys would not have picked first in 1989, so Troy Aikman goes to Green Bay. Without Jimmy Johnson but with Lindy Infante, do we really think that Aikman would have still won 3 Super Bowls?

Good teams botch picks and bad teams have good picks. It is all part of a batting average type of measurement where the good teams hit a better percentage. Just because Albert Pujols strikes out 3 times in one night doesn't mean he isn't the gold standard for hitting. And the same is true when the Patriots botch a pick. It happens. But, you can't botch too many.

Second, when you have too many holes you are in a situation where there are no wrong answers (any pick you make will address a need, most likely) and there are no right answers (no matter who you pick, there will still be some major needs that don't get addressed). This is the curse of the 2013 Cowboys draft. They had needs and needs and needs. They had too many holes and not enough plugs. They shocked the NFL with all of the street free agents that they signed mid-season who stepped right onto the roster and into the huddle because of their absurd lack of depth. They could not afford injuries in a sport that injuries are part of the deal.

So, when they entered this weekend, they were at a distinct disadvantage against the league for 2 reasons. 1) they had more needs than your average team and 2) they had fewer picks than your average team.

When you do look at those NFL Draft grades that I asked you to ignore, you will find that it starts with your pick load. The Ravens and 49ers are celebrated for their awesome draft. Well, they entered with the 2 most picks. Green Bay was congratulated for their draft. Well, they had 10 picks on Day 3 to use and trade with. Minnesota graded well - I should hope so with 3 1st Rounders. You will generally see that the teams with volume are going to hit the target more often.

And this is why the Cowboys operate from a distinct disadvantage. This is the macro view. They butchered several drafts in a row by most counts. 2006-2010 have very little left to show for it. We have discussed this at great length and if you compare them with the power teams in the league, you will see that the issue lies there - not with what they do in the 2012 or 2013 draft.

Imagine a car in a race that is 4 laps down before it finally gets its set-up right. It would make no sense to criticize them too hard for whatever happened after that. They were too far behind to recover. And that is where the franchise stands. Too many holes and no matter who they take, it is the wrong answer.

=====

There is an amazing story in Sports Illustrated a few issues back about Al Davis and the rebuilding of the Raiders franchise after his death. Reports inside include the idea that they did not employ a full-time groundskeeper or even have a draft war-room that was used. They simply did things Al's way and this led to them falling further and further behind the rest of the league as he got older and older.

They were unable to compete without a philosophy or a method for competing in a league that is unforgiving for the last decade when they never won more than 5 games after their Super Bowl 37 season. It was a league power that stopped being a league power once its leader no longer knew how to do it nor how to accept assistance.

Now, with their new General Manager Reggie McKenzie at the helm, they are attempting to dig out of their massive hole. He may or may not be able to do this job, but he is at least going to install some methodology that worked for him in Green Bay under Ted Thompson. Build a board through incredible work, trust your board, and follow the process closely without deviation.

With reports that the Cowboys did not follow this process over the weekend when the room disagreed about taking Sharrif Floyd at #18 or trading down to get #31 and #74, we are left with whispers that Jerry Jones stepped in and grabbed the steering wheel when his personnel department and coaching staff wished to do otherwise. They spent all year setting up their board and doing their work, but when the moment of truth arrived, the veto power from the man on the throne slammed down. And the personnel department shook its collective head. It is his team and he can do what he wants, but to go against your brain trust when that has found trouble in the past, well...

As I said on Friday, I think trading down is a solid idea for a team with too many issues to address. And the very real possibility that they received Travis Frederick and Terrance Williams for Sharrif Floyd or possibly, Tyler Eifert seems like pretty good business in one sense. But, if you employ a personnel department to evaluate the odds and the quality of the players involved, while you are off at the X Games or at a presidential library opening (or artwork releases or Papa Johns or negotiations with the NCAA or...), it would seem that you should be willing to trust their judgement. And if there wasn't a history of vetoes and over-rulings in the 1st Round of drafts of the past, it wouldn't be a big issue. But it has happened again and again. And it hasn't always been the wrong play (DeMarcus Ware over Shawne Merriman) and maybe that is why it continues to happen.

And although it would be hyperbole to compare Jerry Jones and Al Davis in some ways, it is not a stretch to assume that the only way either would ever relinquish power is when they no longer walk the earth.

This, of course, caused head shaking and disappointment when the personnel department couldn't believe that they had a chance at a special player that fell in their lap. The Cowboys loved Floyd and didn't believe he would get to them. So when he did, most thought this was an easy call.

Jerry did not. He traded back and then they decided to pull the trigger on the last remaining offensive lineman on their "top tier", even though most thought that was "too rich" to steal a phrase Stephen Jones used to describe LSU safety Eric Reid going at #18.

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DAY 2

The final 6 picks in the draft were full of curiosities as well. Taking Gavin Escobar is an interesting play and one that reminds us that Jason Garrett was ready and willing to take advantage of the entry of "12 Personnel" into the league back in 2008 and 2009. 12 personnel is the best way to balance up your offense between run and pass because it is a package that does not tip your intentions either way but keeps your weapons on the field (rather than using a fullback, you replace him with a pass catching tight end who can occupy the safeties down the middle of the field).

They tried and tried with Martellus Bennett to make the 2-Tight End attack lethal and despite Stephen chiming in that Bennett was "very productive" in his 4 years in Dallas, we know that it never came close to working. Bennett never had a 300 yard season in a Cowboys uniform. In fact, in 1 year in New York, he fell only 200 yards short of his 4-year total in Dallas. 12 Personnel was a flop here for 4 seasons, but clearly the conviction is still in the coach to try to do what other teams have done so well, and Escobar gives them a weapon that looks the part. He clearly ran a troubling 4.85 40 at the combine where 10 years earlier Jason Witten ran a 4.70 (and Bennett a 4.73 with James Hanna clocking a 4.45). But, we should remember that they were talking up the idea of taking Tyler Eifert from Notre Dame at #18 in the first place, so this was clearly an objective. Whether it should have been a higher objective than linemen is something that we should debate for quite a while (I was hoping for 900+ lbs of human in the first 3 picks and we certainly fell well short of that).

I didn't consider Tight End very far up on their list of needs, but they chose to bolster their offense with a play-maker who certainly would go up and win a ball in the air at San Diego State and was ultra productive. Obviously, 12 personnel does give defenses a real issue if done properly, and just because Bennett couldn't make it work does not mean the strategy won't work. It simply means they got it wrong. I certainly don't mind the player, but I do wonder if they could afford to spend lavishly on this sort of upgrade given that they continue to ignore the defensive line throughout the draft. With LSU's Bennie Logan and Penn State's Jordan Hill both on the Cowboys list of possibilities, I did find the strategy curious.

On the other hand, I have written at great length about the inefficiencies of the offense and the inability to run the ball under any circumstances. Not being able to run makes the pass defenses more problematic and the pass rush more fierce. But, to see them address center and 12 personnel like this has me hopeful that both of these moves are an indirect remedy for better balance and better running attacks.

To read more about the major issues with the Cowboys offense in 2012 that necessitates moves like the first two picks of their draft, please review this story - Garrett's Optimistic Appraisal of the offense forgets plenty of context and this story - 6 years of the Garrett Offense Tells Us Plenty that were published here back in February. I don't love going center-tight end with all of the other needs, but I understand the logic.

At #74 (the extra pick from the trade back) they snag Baylor WR Terrance Williams. Williams is electric and addresses the 3rd WR spot which is so vital around here because Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are likely to get banged up a bit, making #3 the #2 for a portion of the season. He is a home run hitter and a very good value in the 3rd Round. He also puts you in a spot where after 2014, he might be Austin's replacement or in a worst case scenario, he covers you if Dez Bryant's contract situation gets out of hand (which I doubt happens). This is a position of need and the Cowboys ran almost nothing but 11 personnel with 3 WRs for all of its production in 2012, so it is tough to argue with the player - but again, it did not address OL, DL, or Safety causing many to slap their foreheads in disgust.

At #80, they finally targeted one of their primary needs (at least as we have assumed) which is safety. But, in this particular case, it was not the most likely of the available safeties left, Fresno State's Phillip Thomas. Thomas had led the NCAA in interceptions and was a noted ball hawk. Nor was it noted strong safety, Shamarko Thomas of Syracuse. Instead, they went with Georgia Southern's JJ Wilcox. Wilcox obviously has incredible physical tools including a 4.53 40, but is perhaps most identified because he has played safety for just 1 college season.

Wilcox is still learning the position after running back and wide receiver earlier in college, but has no issues with confidence or self belief. He has tools and the Cowboys believe they can help him continue to figure out how to grow into being an NFL safety. They clearly saw Thomas and Thomas as guys without the same upside, and although project safeties give me great pause (Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, I am looking at you), I am excited to see what Wilcox and Matt Johnson can bring to a safety position that has not had legitimate young prospects in a while.

DAY 3

With just 3 picks on Day 3, the Cowboys had to ring the bell on 3 occasions. Obviously, I need to go see B.W. Webb's film at William and Mary before I get too carried away, but I am very excited to see his speed, his big plays as a special teams man, and another corner that might replace Orlando Scandrick at the end of this season as the 3rd corner. This pick #114, like a few others, seems to try to cover themselves for future financial cutbacks. Of course, they don't appear to have covered themselves very much at the spots when Anthony Spencer and Jason Hatcher are unrestricted next winter.

Webb is certainly tiny and with 0 interceptions last year, we need to see how he competes at the next level, but when looking for a corner, I always like to start with a guy who is under 4.5 and generates electricity when he has the ball. Webb looks the part so that is a nice start at least. We might wonder, much like in Round 2 when they passed on Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell, and Montee Ball, if the Cowboys should have considered Johnathan Franklin to fill that 2nd Running Back void. They did not, until Round 5.

That is when at #151, the Cowboys targeted their RB. It was another Big 12 South product in the form of Joseph Randle from Oklahoma State. Certainly at 4.63, he is not a burner, but he appears to be a workhorse who also has the ability to catch the ball and go and at 204 might be able to share the load on blitz pickups. This need was further up my list than another corner, but to get Randle in Round 5 I believe is a pretty good achievement. They desperately needed to through this up the list of priorities with the durability issues of DeMarco Murray, so there can be no real dispute on this idea other than to wonder if they might have found a better player earlier.

Finally, their final pick was in the 6th round at #185. DeVonte Holloman from South Carolina is a linebacker who should do what most 6th rounders do and that is to supply exceptional work at special teams and depth in the lineup. This team clearly needed linebacker depth after last year's issues and finding Holloman seems reasonable. This deep in the draft you just take the most talented player left almost regardless of position, so until I learn more about him, it is tough to consider this at all as a place to 2nd guess.

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Again, to review what I said earlier, when you have old mistakes on top of older mistakes you have too many holes to fill. When that happens, there are no wrong answers (they needed players at every spot they took and they each have a chance to play a major role) and there are no right answers (they took just 1 offensive lineman in the entire draft and maybe reached on him and they took no defensive linemen whatsoever).

I look forward to breaking down the college work of each of these players in the weeks to come and writing a personal review on each of them when I have digested enough of their games. In the meantime, I certainly understand the critiques but I am also interested in the additions. Even in the case of Travis Frederick, if he can finally give them solid center play, I don't think anyone will have a major issue with that decision going forward.

It has been said a number of times, after draft weekend, the position a player is taken is just a footnote. It makes no difference when the ball is snapped who went where and in what round. They all simply become NFL players and in this case Dallas Cowboys. Undrafted players and 1st rounders fight for the same spots and compete now regardless of how they got to this league. And from that standpoint, the Cowboys appear to be infused with 7 promising prospects who can all help this team win. There is plenty of room for 2nd guessing, but from where I sit, if I was the type to grade drafts, I am not sure I could have a major issue with the concepts behind most of these picks.

Now, we see if they can play.

NFL Draft 2013: Day 2 - Morning Thoughts (Travis Frederick Edition)

2013-04-26T10:08:00.000-05:00

One of my favorite movies of all time is "Raiders of the Lost Ark". I think it is a fantastic adventure film starring the great Harrison Ford as Indiana Jones and his quest to find the ark of the covenant. There is a particular scene when they are trying to pinpoint the exact location of the ark that he is worried that his rival, Belloq, has the same secret coordinates to find the treasure. However, the head piece that is supposed to be placed on a staff with a specific length to let the sun reveal the location of the ark in the hidden map room (I really hope you saw the movie or this might be confusing) is discovered to be the wrong length, Indiana celebrates.

"They are digging in the wrong place!" Indiana and his trusty assistant Sallah exclaim with delight, knowing that Belloq only had 1 part of the information and not the vital details on the 2nd side of the head piece. Without full and complete information, the conclusions are dead wrong.

I think of that scene when I follow the NFL Draft. Loud voices scream from the mountain tops with great conviction despite the fact that we are often digging in the wrong place. We don't have complete information and without it, we speak with certainty despite having none.

It is great that we have such passion for the NFL Draft. But, that passion should make us guarded when we want to praise or humiliate a decision maker for what they just did - despite the fact that most in the audience is scrambling to "know" a player in the moments before the microphone is turned on again.

The Cowboys do not have an environment where they enjoy a benefit of the doubt these days. They haven't in years and there is a very strong likelihood that until there are new faces making decisions for the franchise, this will not reverse. There are just too many examples of poor evaluations, conclusions, and decisions to ever "expect the best possible outcome" when the Cowboys defy conventional wisdom anymore.

But, that doesn't make for good analysis. Good analysis should be done only when enough information is available and that does not include making a list of all offensive linemen from Wisconsin, all trade down results from the past, and averaging out the best 5 mock drafts that you have read this week.

They decided to trade out of pick #18 to get #31 and #74 in return. It seems, without knowing what else was available, that they took a net loss on that transaction. It seems that they should have received a return of #31 and #61 (1st and 2nd) to trade back, but the 49ers obviously were not willing to do that. Logically, once you try to get #31 and #61 and they refuse, then you are left with 2 options (we assume): 1) take the player at #18 and play the conventional wisdom of trusting your board and your 4 month process or 2) trying to flip that opportunity for 2 quality players over 1.

The idea of trading back is one that I actually preferred before the draft started. I think we suspected that the bins might be rather picked over of premium players by the time they got on the clock. If they had 18 or 19 players graded in the 1st round, then they might get the least attractive of that grouping. However, if they could stack the deck with multiple solid players from the Top 2 or 3 rounds, then that might be the more efficient play.

This leads us to the Sharrif Floyd discussion. Floyd, the Florida DT, was believed to be their favorite DT of the position grouping. I didn't care for his work nearly that much (productivity concerns) and actually preferred UNC's Sylvester Williams tape to his, but with the 3 year age difference, I can certainly see the idea that the 20-year old Floyd might have more upside potential.

But, when they picked, they had their choice of Floyd or Williams. Both would be an absolutely welcomed upgrade to the new 4-3 defense - but, I should tell you that I see the defensive line that needs help fast. Jerry Jones argued last night that it is actually a strength of the team. And we both might be right. From Jerry's perspective, which usually is only worried about the next game (not a great position for a GM to take), he sees a front four of Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Jay Ratliff, and DeMarcus Ware. Honestly, that does look pretty strong. But, when you consider that Spencer and Hatcher will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season and that Ware and Ratliff are both on the wrong side of 30 with Ratliff already looking like he is breaking down physically and might even face league discipline for his drunk driving incident of January, you could easily make the case that they require help quickly to replace and replenish.

Instead of going that route of either player they trade out to add a 2nd relatively high pick (Top 3 rounds). That gives them 4 picks in the top 100 selections in a draft thought to be deep enough to give strong players for 3 rounds.

So far, they have taken Travis Frederick from Wisconsin at pick #31. This selection even surprised Frederick from what we can gather as he said as much in interviews that he expected to go in round 2. Round 2 was only 2 picks away, but there are many that ranked him as a Top 75 player, but not a Top 50 or even a 1st round player. The rankings of Frederick and Floyd lead us back to Raiders of the Lost Ark. People want to know what caused Floyd to slide and what caused the Cowboys to disagree with Mike Mayock (who has not been hired by anyone to run their draft room at the moment I write this).

Why do I think of that movie when discussing Sharrif Floyd? Because, of the comedy of media types explaining what happened with him. They say that he slid because of "short arms" on draft night. Hold on. He is measured at the Combine. We all knew about his arm length (31 3/4) back in February and then "experts" said he could go #3 for 2 months. Then, on draft night, he falls because of that? Did the teams really like the player or didn't they? Did the media mostly collectively copy each-others notes? Did anyone look at his measurements in February when they were taken and distributed?

Same thing with the #1 pick. If you hear draft people talk, the Chiefs changed their mind yesterday from Luke Joeckel to Eric Fisher. I don't believe that at all. The truth is the we found out yesterday. They knew a long time ago that they preferred Fisher. But, to make us all feel better about our information, we blame the teams for changing their minds at the last minute. Then, Jacksonville, who was going to take Dion Jordan (right?) changes their mind and grabs Joeckel at the last minute. Bologna.

My point is that Floyd is the latest on a list of guys who slide because they weren't widely loved as much as other options. That is the truth. I didn't like him that much, then didn't understand when everyone had him at #3, and last night saw he was picked about where everyone thought he might be picked 4 months ago. But, to hear it retold in the media, he was nice, then great, then regressed, and then the Vikings got great value at #23. LOL.

Without enough information, the media can either admit they were wrong or they can act like the teams changed their mind. This preserves the media's facade of perfection and puts the blame on the usual suspects. And locally, we all know who that is.

They are digging in the wrong place!

Meanwhile, Frederick looks like a real position of need being filled. If this was pick #47 I would be very pleased. It does appear that they took him before they had to, but that is wild speculation and we really have no idea if he would have still been there at #47. The fact is that the pocket collapses and the ball cannot be run in Dallas for a few years (since Gurode left) and now, with a sturdy and powerful man being put at center right away, I think they will not lack for strength in the middle of their line anymore. He plays strong and won't often get pushed around. That is a big upgrade from Phil Costa and Ryan Cook, I believe. However, I do want to study more on him when the draft is over before I get carried away.

But, Dallas has already done their homework on him and if you could just judge him in a vacuum, we might all feel better. It just doesn't work that way. We have Floyd and Frederick married forever like Greg Ellis and Randy Moss. Ellis was a very solid player, but every time Moss scored a touchdown, we got mad at Ellis. Frederick must be good, but if Floyd is the next Tommie Harris or Warren Sapp, the bearded man from Wisconsin will always have to carry that around.

But as we know, this draft still has plenty of spots to be filled for the Cowboys. Here is what the picture looks like now:

Round	Pick	Overall
Rd 1	#31	Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
Rd 2	#17	#47
Rd 3	#12	#74
Rd 3	#18	#80
Rd 4	#17	#114
Rd 5	#18	#151
Rd 6	#17	#185
Rd 7	-----	Traded to Miami for Ryan Cook

The spots that still need to be addressed are plentiful. I really do like the depth at safety that remains as Jonathan Cyprien, Phillip Thomas, DJ Swearinger, and JJ Wilcox are all worthy of Round 2 or 3 in my opinion.

Offensive line is rather picked over at the top, but Menelik Watson, Terron Armstead, Ricky Wagner (hey, another Wisconsin guy!), Brian Winters, Larry Warford, and others still remain. They can always use more help there, but they are in better shape now.

Defensive line needs help quickly today. Tank Carradine, Sam Montgomery, Alex Okafor, William Gholston, and Damontre Moore are defensive ends I like to some extent in the first 3 rounds, and defensive tackles like Kawaan Short, Jesse Williams, Bennie Logan, and Jordan Hill all jump out at me.

Beyond those positions of need, we should not be surprised if that extra pick turns into a RB: Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball, Giovani Bernard, Stepfan Taylor, and Jonathan Franklin all look the part. Or, WR: Justin Hunter, Terrance Willams, Ryan Swope, or Quinton Patton all are on my radar.

If, by tonight, they have 3 players from these pools then I will feel pretty good about things. Here is another valuable tool that WalterFootball.com provides. It is a list of all the players the Cowboys have visited with. They don't always take players from their visits, but they often do:

Terron Armstead, OL, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (PRI) Le'Veon Bell, RB, Michigan State (VINT) (PRI) Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina (PRI) Josh Boyce, WR, TCU (PRI) Jonathan Cyprien, DB, Florida International (PRI) Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas (PRI) Will Davis, DB, Utah State (COM) Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas (PRO) Jakar Hamilton, DB, South Carolina State (PRI) Jordan Hill, DL, Penn State (PRI) Gerald Hodges, LB, Penn State (PRI) Margus Hunt, DL, SMU (PRI) Mike James, RB, Miami (COM) Nick Kasa, TE, Colorado (INT) Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati (COM) Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina (COM) Bennie Logan, DT, LSU (PRI) Brandon Magee, LB, Arizona State (PRI) Stansly Maponga, LB, TCU (PRI) Damontre Moore, DL, Texas AM (PRO) Sio Moore, LB, Connecticut (PRI) Ryan Otten, TE, San Jose State (INT) Sean Porter, LB, Texas A&M (PRI) David Quessenberry, OL, San Jose State (VINT) Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma State (PRI) Dion Sims, TE, Michigan State (PRI) Jonathan Stewart, LB, Texas A&M (COM) Ryan Swope, WR, Texas AM (INT) Lane Taylor, OL, Oklahoma State (PRO) Stepfan Taylor, RB, Stanford (INT) Phillip Thomas, S, Fresno State (PRI) Conner Vernon, WR, Duke (COM) B.W. Webb, DB, William Mary (PRI) Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State (PRI) J.J. Wilcox, S, Georgia Southern (PRI)

SR - Senior Bowl meeting. EW - East-West Shrine meeting. COM - Combine meeting. INT - Interested. VINT - Very Interested. PRO - Pro Day meeting. PRI - Private Workout.

It is another vital day. The Cowboys don't have the public's benefit of the doubt, but that won't win games, anyway. When Jon Daniels makes a move, we assume it is the right one. When Jerry Jones makes a move, we tend to assume it is wrong. They both built their reputations, but in the end, past performance does not promise future results.

They have 3 picks today and that will go a long way to making you feel better about last night.

The great debate will be Sharrif Floyd versus Travis Frederick and #74. For those who have already rendered a verdict before they know who #74 is, I applaud their speed but question their accuracy. It is only halftime in this deal and we should at least give them the chance to name names. But, for a team with multiple holes and not enough picks to fill them, this might not be the worst idea ever.

Let's find out.

NFL Draft 2013: Day 1 - Morning Thoughts

2013-04-25T10:03:00.001-05:00

It is finally draft day 2013. No more study time on players who might be on the Cowboys radar and no more time for long debates as to what they need or what they should do. Those of us who want to know these players before the bias of ownership kicks in have done all that we can do, and tonight, the landscape of the NFL can be altered yet again.

From a Cowboys perspective, there are a few things we just don't really have a feel for that is required to fully know the team's plans. For instance, there is that issue of using the cap space that was generated from the restructure of Tony Romo' contract to sign a veteran offensive lineman who might instantly be in their plans. Eric Winston and Tyson Clabo have both been long time starters at right tackle in the league and both are on the street today, with links to the Cowboys in the media.

I believe that Tyson Clabo is the player they like better but he might have more leverage to get a multi-year deal elsewhere, and that is something Dallas would not be willing to do, most likely. But, since we have no idea whether there is certainty in their interest in Clabo, we cannot take tackle off their board of needs as tonight approaches. DJ Fluker would be a very strong right tackle prospect if they went the young route, but again, we don't know how things are going in free agency for the team now that the league has really quieted down in that department.

But, as we look at the needs on draft day: Guard, Tackle, Defensive Tackle, Safety are the major ones, with depth needed at Wide Receiver, Running Back, Tight End, and Defensive End later on - we can see tackle is about the only one that they might be able to find a veteran on a 1-year deal if they are against bringing Doug Free back at a reduced rate. And I suppose we shouldn't rule out the idea that Free at $3m in 2013 is something they would consider if he would agree to a pay cut from $7m. His leverage is minimal given that finding a starting job or a reasonable pay day after June 1 is nearly impossible for a guy with low stock. I imagine staying here for lowered cash and only having to defeat Jeremy Parnell for RT in camp is his best option. Whether the Cowboys think so remains to be seen.

But, if we take tackle off the board, then we look at the remaining 3 spots of need: Guard (M Bernadeau appears to be a backup), DT (Ratliff aging and Josh Brent gone), and Safety (always need that) are the 3 real ideas at pick #18. If you build your board around that, then you are not saying you only consider players from those same positions, but rather, if there is a similar grade on players, you use that to break any close calls. Of course, if the best player on your board by a mile is someone like Tavon Austin, then you have to use your brain. But, you are looking to fill long-time needs, too. And that is why Guard, Defensive Tackle, and Safety are high on my plans for the early picks.

Now, of those 3, you ask where the best prospects are and what can be accomplished in the 2nd or 3rd round. That is where we consider that there is major depth at safety, with 8 or 9 reasonable options there, albeit the quality does drop after Kenny Vaccaro, Jonathan Cyprien, and Eric Reid. But, with another 5 or so good looking safeties, I am not interested in one at #18. One exception would be dropping in the 1st round to pick up an additional 2nd or 3rd round. If I sit at #25 or so, I might think safety there.

That leaves Guard and DT for #18. It will come down to what falls to you. I think the Cowboys love both guards with Cooper being their preference. His mobility and perfect form for a zone blocking scheme gives him the edge on Warmack, but I really believe they would be delighted either way. Personally, I prefer Warmack and his brute strength more, but I do wonder if he fits that scheme to perfection. On the other hand, I don't like the idea of forcing a scheme without considering your personnel. I think you have to look at your group and design around that. But that conversation is for a different day.

As for Defensive tackle, I think the Cowboys think 4 are worth #18. That includes Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson, and Sylvester Williams. Rumors exist that they like Floyd the most, which I will admit is a bit peculiar to me. I actually like him about the 4th most of the 4, with Lotulelei, Richardson, and Williams (in that order) in front of him. But, clearly, I am just a guy with a blog and a DVD player. They have visited with the players, investigated their lives, done medicals, and talked to coaches. Always trust personnel departments over bloggers.

Based on the 9 players we tried to break down on this blog, here is my "board" for #18:

1. Chance Warmack - Report Here
2. Jonathan Cooper - Report Here
3. Star Lotulelei - Report Here
4. Sheldon Richardson - Report Here
5. Sylvester Williams - Report Here
6. Tavon Austin - Report Here
7. Sharrif Floyd - Report Here
8. Kenny Vaccaro - Report Here
9. DJ Fluker - Report Here

I do think that is how I would stack them and if they follow this perfectly, I would be fine with even Fluker at #18. They will get a solid contributor and an instant starter from all 9 of these players, I believe. But, as I said before, if Austin, Vaccaro, or Fluker are their best options, I hope they would try to figure out a way to move back and pick up another top #100 pick to add to their haul. Top #100 picks traditionally should contribute in a big way right off the bus and that is what the Cowboys really need. If they can leave the draft with 4 of the top #100 instead of 3, they should effort to do so.

I should also point out that there has been plenty of talk this week about the TE from Notre Dame, Tyler Eifert. I concede that he is the best tight end in this draft, but I don't care for that selection here. I would rank him behind all 9 of the players above and hope that this is smoke the Cowboys are generating to get someone to snag him above them, allowing their actual targets to fall to them. He is a prospect that is certainly better than James Hanna, but, his strengths and weaknesses seem similar to Hanna, aside from speed. Hanna ran 4.45 last year, Eifert is a 4.66 this year. Jason Witten has taught us that 40-time isn't everything, but I don't see Eifert to be a generational tight end that I would drop everything to address. But, they don't ask me.

Here are their current draft positions:

Round	Pick	Overall
Rd 1	#18	#18
Rd 2	#17	#47
Rd 3	#18	#80
Rd 4	#17	#114
Rd 5	#18	#151
Rd 6	#17	#185
Rd 7	-----	Traded to Miami for Ryan Cook

They have 6 picks and plenty of places to put these guys. Enough talk. Time to fill in the gaps.

Tonight is Round 1. Let's get to it already.

Draft Profile: Star Lotulelei - DT - Utah

2013-04-25T08:43:00.000-05:00

The following is the 9th in a series of draft profiles for the 1st round pick for the Dallas Cowboys. These profiles are put together with the specific needs of the Cowboys in mind, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and game tape to get an idea of who might fit in best with Dallas come draft day. Surely, circumstances will dictate what actually happens on that day, but we will profile the 8-10 most likely candidates and try to kick the tires on each and every scenario an how it relates to the Cowboys in 2013 and beyond.

I thought I was done, but in the last 24 hours there has been a hint of possibility that Star Lotulelei gets in the Cowboys range. So, on this, draft day 2013, I scramble to get one more profile out (fully realizing that no matter how many I do, the Cowboys will do something off that board if Morris Claiborne is any indication).

Star Lotulelei
Utah
Defensive Tackle
6'2, 311
40 time: 5.31 Bench Press: 38 Reps (Both totals from his pro day)
Born: December 20, 1989 (Age 23)

Preparing for the number of possibilities on draft day always means casting your nets further out than you think you will need to when the moment comes. 2013 is maybe the best example of this ever as we get to the morning of the draft with a feeling that the top 2 teams will take the top 2 tackles on the board. After that, you can honestly make a case for the next 15 players or so being anywhere in that range up and down the next 15 picks. Add to that the possibility that someone will get antsy and insert a QB or two into the equation and we are at a spot where we must be ready for anything.

And Star Lotulelei represents that exercise.

3 months ago, you would seldom have a draft discussion without this man being in the top 3. He is a huge specimen that combines strength with a surprising amount of quickness in tight spaces to make him a candidate to be the top DT in the draft. There is some question where his very best fit might be on the defensive line - as Utah used him in various gaps up and down the line - but at the NFL level, he sure has the look of a classic 1-technique in the 4-3, the DT that shades the center's shoulder and gets in the A-Gap opposite the 3-technique DT.

He can occupy both the center and the guard and while his production is solid with 22.5 Tackles for Loss and 7 sacks as a 2-year starter in the Pac-12. But, what makes that production very easy to enjoy is the opportunities that exist because he can both occupy multiple blockers on multiple plays, but he can also stand his ground against these double teams and not be moved. He is both a speed bump and a guy who can get in your backfield for sacks, tackles for loss, and even the occasional blocked kick with his notable penetration skills. He is a very impressive prospect.

What makes him more appealing to me than Sharrif Floyd and Sheldon Richardson, in particular (the other 2 of the consensus "Top 3 DTs") is that he appears to be both fish and fowl. He can handle the run game in a dominating way, but can also do just fine as a pass rusher. In one estimation, he combines the run stuff of Jesse Williams from Alabama (maybe slightly less) and while not possessing quite the interior quickness of Richardson and Floyd, he can certainly beat guys one on one and cause all manner of chaos on pass downs. His best move right now is the bull rush (what more would you expect from a player built like he is), but there is belief that he can develop beyond that quickly.

As for intangibles, he had a medical scare that turned out to be cleared later which certainly did not help his draft season buzz and did not work out at the Combine because of this. You never want to hear about a possible heart abnormality, but when the medical experts give him a clean bill of health, then it seems silly for draft nerds to spend much time second guessing that.

He is already married and with 2 daughters and appears to be settled in his private life, so when targeting players that don't generally keep you up worried at night, Star seems rather safe.

Why would he be available at #18? He likely won't be. But if he is, there will be whispers of a motor that doesn't always hit the red line each and every day. I have watched enough of Star to say that doesn't bother me that much because you will be hard-pressed to find any DT who is constantly doubled that doesn't wear down over the course of a game. Lotulelei can play every snap, I believe, and his motor checks out just fine.

Here are some youtube cut-ups for your own personal eye-ball test. Find the DT who wears #92 and watch:

Vs USC (check 5:05)

Vs Arizona

The Case For Dallas Taking Star Lotulelei at #18: Honestly, if some how Lotulelei doesn't go in the Top 10 picks, I would count it a major upset. But, even if he does, odds are very high that he would still go before #18 (including the major issue of Pittsburgh at #17). But, if somehow he is available, I believe I would take him before anyone on the board besides Cooper and Warmack. And, even in those cases, I could definitely make a case that he could be used as badly as those two guards are. Like the guards, I would strongly advise getting carried away with trading up and sacrificing additional picks to get him. But, if he does fall to you, run to the podium. I cannot think of many better scenarios.

The Case Against Dallas Taking Star Lotulelei at #18: If I am going to argue so strenuously for him, then clearly I don't have a good case against him. Again, this team is badly in need of young, physical bullies on the offensive and defensive lines. If, for some reason, they choose to place a bully on the OL instead of one on the DL, that is acceptable. But, the DL needs reinforcements in a hurry as DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff are getting up there in age, and Anthony Spencer and Jason Hatcher are free agents-to-be. Behind them right now it is a thin group of situational rotation players like Sean Lissemore and Tyrone Crawford. They could really use a stud. So, this isn't really a case against him, is it?

I know this is late, but placing Star high on this list is easy, I would list the nine players I have profiled in this order of preference:

1. Chance Warmack - Report Here
2. Jonathan Cooper - Report Here
3. Star Lotulelei
4. Sheldon Richardson - Report Here
5. Sylvester Williams - Report Here
6. Tavon Austin - Report Here
7. Sharrif Floyd - Report Here
8. Kenny Vaccaro - Report Here
9. DJ Fluker - Report Here

Jerry Jones Draft Day Trade Log

2013-04-24T09:11:00.001-05:00

Tomorrow, we will endeavor to elaborate about our specific plans and beliefs about the Cowboys 2013 draft plans. But, today, I wanted to partially answer questions and then fill in the blanks on a particular topic that goes hand in hand with player selections on draft day. This will be the 20th draft that the Cowboys will participate in since Jimmy Johnson left town before the 1994 draft. In that time, the Cowboys have certainly taken on a different reputation for their drafting ability and one of those cliches that analysts will use is the idea that "Jerry cannot sit still" on draft day.

He is thought of as an owner who falls in love with a target and then trades up to go get him without worrying too much about the cost. And, of course, he is thought of as a major downgrade to Jimmy (Johnson's 5 years of drafts compare favorably to almost anyone who ever drafted in any organization so that isn't a stretch).

Anyway, through covering this team, I felt it would be helpful to actually deal in facts rather than what we recall. If you polled draft experts, many would accuse the Cowboys of trading up all of the time. Others would say that they actually trade down all of the time. Obviously, this seems to indicate they certainly enjoy trading. Up and Down. In this post, I wish to document the trades they have conducted that take place using picks from the top 3 rounds only. But that alone will take up quite a bit of space.

Starting with 2012 and working backwards, here are the Cowboys trades involving the traditional "Day 1" picks:

Jason Garrett/Jerry Jones Era

2012: Traded #14-Michael Brockers and #45-Alshon Jeffery to the St. Louis Rams for 6th overall- Morris Claiborne. TRADE UP

===

2011: No Trades

Summary of Garrett/Jones: Nothing much to report aside from the trade up to get Claiborne last year. I am on record quite a bit on this trade up, with the long summary here, but the short version is that I think they could not afford to trade 2 starters for 1 in their current state. For the most part, these last 2 drafts are basically, "stay home and follow our board".

===

Wade Phillips/Jerry Jones Era

2010: Traded #27-Devin McCourty and #90-Taylor Price to the New England Patriots to select Dez Bryant and pick #119. TRADE UP

Edit: Also, Cowboys trade up to get Sean Lee at #55. To do so, they send #59-Montario Hardesty and #125-Clay Harbor to Philadelphia. TRADE UP

===

2009: Cowboys acquire WR Roy Williams and a 7th from Detroit for #20-Brandon Pettigrew, #82-Derrick Williams, #192-Aaron Brown. TRADE OUT

Traded away pick #51-Andy Levitre to Buffalo Bills for 75th Robert Brewster and 110th Victor Butler picks. TRADE DOWN

===

2008: Traded #28-Lawrence Jackson, #163-Owen Schmitt, #235-Brandon Coutu to Seattle for pick #25 Mike Jenkins. TRADE UP

===

2007: Cowboys trade away #22 (Brady Quinn) to Browns for #36-Kevin Kolb and 2008 first round pick (#22-Felix Jones). TRADE DOWN

Then, Cowboys Traded #36-Kevin Kolb, #87-Stewart Bradley, #159-C.J. Gaddis to Eagles for #26-Anthony Spencer. TRADE UP

Summary of Phillips/Jones: This is where trading up to "get your guy" really got traction. They went up to get Anthony Spencer and then up to get Mike Jenkins and then up to get Dez Bryant and then to get Sean lee. In the process that that cost a total of 10 picks to get 3 players and 1 additional (and significantly lesser pick). If you add to that the 2008 Roy Williams trade that gutted the 2009 draft, they basically spent 13 picks to get 5 players. And we wonder why this team has so many holes.

They also had 2 trade downs, including the 2007 trade down to get an extra #1 in 2008 (Felix Jones) and a trade down in 2009 where they picked up quantity but dropped significant quality to do so. Just stay there and grab Andy Levitre has been said quite a few times since that bad idea of a trade down and settle for Robert Brewster (who never played) in the 3rd Round.

===

Bill Parcells/Jerry Jones Era

2006: Cowboys Traded #49-Kellen Clemons to Jets for #53-Anthony Fasano, #189-Drew Coleman, #211-Pat McQuistan. TRADE DOWN

Cowboys Traded #80-Clint Ingram to Jaguars for #92-Jason Hatcher and #125-Skyler Green). TRADE DOWN

===

2005: No Trades (but the extra pick from 2004 accounted below).

===

2004: Cowboys traded away #22-J.P. Losman to Buffalo for #43-Julius Jones, #144-Sean Ryan, 2005 first round pick (#20-Marcus Spears) TRADE DOWN

===

2003: No Trades

Summary of Parcells/Jones: As you can see, this is a unique period in which draft picks were used poorly, but they were always valued. The Cowboys only participated in 3 trades in 4 drafts of top 100 picks, but each time they were accumulating bodies and stepping back. They sent away 3 picks and brought back 8. This is how a roster is built quickly, if it can be done properly. Mistakes were made when Parcells ran the war-room, with the Steven Jackson/Julius Jones decision chief amongst them, Bobby Carpenter, and many offensive linemen too (Jacob Rogers, Stephen Peterman), and of course the legendary battle where Parcells wanted Marcus Spears or Shawne Merriman over DeMarcus Ware. But, overall, the efficiency and conservative nature of his draft day philosophy is in sharp contrast to say, Phillips/Jones.

===

Dave Campo/Jerry Jones Era

2002: Cowboys traded #6-Ryan Sims to Kansas City for #8-Roy Williams, #75-Derek Ross, #186-Zuriel Smith. TRADE DOWN

Cowboys traded up to #63 to take Antonio Bryant and #129 Jamar Martin, sending Chicago #72-Roosevelt Williams, #104-Alex Brown, #140-Bobby Gray. TRADE UP

===

2001: Cowboys traded #37-Idrees Bashir to Colts for #52-Chris Chambers and #81-Kenny Smith. TRADE DOWN

Cowboys trade #52-Chris Chambers to Dolphins for #56-Tony Dixon and #122-Markus Steele. TRADE DOWN

Cowboys trade for pick #53 Quincy Carter by sending the Saints #70-Sedrick Hodge and #81-Kenny Smith. TRADE UP

===

2000: Dallas traded 2000 first round pick (#19-Shaun Alexander), 2001 first round pick (#7-Andre Carter) to the Seattle for Joey Galloway. TRADE OUT

They also traded pick #80-Darrell Jackson to Seattle for James McKnight. TRADE OUT

Summary of Campo/Jones: Wow. To see it all on paper again is tough to read. This is where things really started spiraling out of control as Jerry went "all in" on the Galloway trade. In fact, he went so crazy that we really forgot about the overpayment for James McKnight with the SAME TEAM! Then, the targeting and drafting of Quincy Carter and Antonio Bryant in which neither guy was what you hoped he was and then finally a very impressive job trading back in 2002 for 3 picks to just fall back 2 slots to take the guy you truly wanted. Pretty crazy reviewing these drafts and the gutting of the Galloway trade which set the 2001 trade back initiative into motion. What is truly nuts is that the Galloway trade did not scare him off the Roy Williams idea in 2008.

===

Chan Gailey/Jerry Jones Era:

1999: No trades

===

1998: No Trades

Summary of Gailey/Jones: about as non-descript an era of the Cowboys history as we can find. The only notable footnotes of these 2 drafts would be the Randy Moss/Greg Ellis decision which has been discussed pretty thoroughly by now.

===

Barry Switzer/Jerry Jones Era:

1997: Cowboys trade with the Eagles to get #22-David LaFleur and send away #25-Jon Harris, #155-Luther Broughton, 1998 third round pick #70-Brian Alford. TRADE UP

They then trade #54-Kevin Abrams to Lions for #65-Dexter Coakley and #101-Antonio Anderson. TRADE DOWN

===

1996: Cowboys trade Washington Pick #30 - Andre Johnson for #37-Kavika Pittman and #67-Clay Shiver. TRADE DOWN

Cowboys get pick #49-Randall Godfrey from Miami in exchange for #60-Michael Cheever and #99-Phillip Daniels. TRADE UP

===

1995: Cowboys trade Tampa Bay pick #28 - Derrick Brooks for #41-Ronald Davis and #63-Shane Hannah. TRADE DOWN

Cowboys trade Atlanta pick #41 - Ronald Davis for #46-Sherman Williams and #110-Eric Bjornson. TRADE DOWN

===

1994: Cowboys trade for pick #23 - Shante Carver from San Francisco (also receive pick #217) for #28-William Floyd and #62-Tyrone Drakeford. TRADE UP

Summary of Switzer/Jones Era: This was certainly a very active era where the Cowboys were constantly doing something in these 4 drafts. In the end, the trades up and trades back seem to cancel each-other out in number - but don't be fooled. The quantity is out-weighed by the details. The 1995 passing on Derrick Brooks for what amounts to Sherman Williams, Shane Hannah, and Eric Bjornson seems crazy. Also, the amount of heaven and earth that was moved to get Troy Aikman his new tight end in David LaFleur should not be under-rated, either. And in 1994, sending a 1st and 2nd to get Shante Carver is a bit cringe worthy, too.

Below is a very basic summary of the trades by era. The Player +/- is simply a quantity count of players in versus players out in these trades. They, by no means, account for quality of players so it is a flawed discussion for sure. But, just so you can see the activity by era, here it is:

Head Coach	Trades Up	Trades Down	Trades Out	Player +/-
Garrett	1	0	0	-1
Phillips	4	2	1	-5
Parcells	0	3	0	+5
Campo	2	3	2	-1
Gailey	0	0	0	0
Switzer	3	4	0	0
Totals	9	12	3	-1

So, by my count, 25 trades that involve "Top 100" picks over the 19 drafts by Jerry Jones. If nothing else, you should never leave your television set during draft coverage, because as the cliche tell us, he can't sit still in that war room. If the Cowboys lack success, it isn't because they are napping. In fact, quite the opposite might be true. A nap might be what they need.

I kid. Sort of.

Bag of Pucks - April 23 - Final Week Edition

2013-04-23T08:38:00.005-05:00

You wanted the playoffs, right?

Well, you got them. Starting tonight. And with 3 games to go into the regular season, we have found our way to a familiar spot. Win. Win again. And then, win a 3rd time in succession for the playoffs. Anything less might not be enough.

In fact, with Detroit's win last night and Columbus winning the night before, we are actually in a spot where it appears winning the next 3 games might still not be enough. They need to win the next 3 AND make sure that they do it in regulation against the Blue Jackets on Thursday and the Red Wings on Saturday. If either of those teams extract so much as a point from their visits to Dallas at the end of the week, that might signal the death blow to the Stars 2013 campaign. Ugh.

This team has made these last few weeks quite enjoyable. In fact, some of the moments of April 2013 have been quite memorable from the way that they were left for dead to then their subsequent run of form that was the best of the entire year. There is something to be said about the overall battle and resolve of this squad and the way that they have no interest (those that remain) of mailing in the final games of their season. And that should be admired.

But, there is no chance that battle and resolve will show up in the standings or stand the test of time in the memories of the DFW sports scene. As Master Yoda has told us, "Do or do not. There is no try."

They sit 10th in the Western Conference this morning, and although we see the margin as razor thin - because that is what it is with 3 games to play - we can also look at it from a standpoint of deficiency. What are the Stars doing that doesn't fall in the class of its competition?

There are many disconcerting numbers when it comes to team-to-team comparisons, but the one that continues to jump off the page in a real hockey sense is simply "Goals Allowed". It doesn't get more basic than that, and the Stars are amongst the most generous teams in the sport. They have conceded 133 times this year or 2.95 GA per game. The Blue Jackets sit at 2.54 GA and the Red Wings 2.48 GA as of this morning. If you are conceding an extra half goal per game, you can see where that thin margin is really an issue.

Which is why we have spent so much time on the true issues of this team in this space all year long (and years before that). We can discuss other components of this squad all day, but the bottom line is that the Stars have been deficient in defensive man-power for the entire 5 years since they last were a contender in the Western Conference. It has been said so many times that it now borders on beating a dead horse, but similar to having starting pitching, quarterback play, or rebounding in these various sports, there is just very little history of a team winning in this sport without league-average or better quality on their defense.

This, of course, can be impacted for better or worse based on the caliber of the goaltending and the forwards doing their part. But, at the proverbial end of the day, your blue-line group of 6 defensemen has to be able to get you out of most of your problems. This is one of the top traits of the glory days with Derian Hatcher, Richard Matvichuk, Darryl Sydor, Sergei Zubov, Craig Ludwig, and Shawn Chambers. They didn't get scored upon because they, comparatively speaking, did not get shot upon. When you concede just 24 shots against per game, this means Ed Belfour didn't have heavy work most nights, and when he did, he needed to only make 22 saves to get the Stars in a position to win. Compare that with how many nights Kari Lehtonen must make 32 saves to give the Stars a chance.

I know people roll their eyes when the 1999 Stars are referenced, so let's work from the other direction. Without a magnificent finish, the Stars will have missed the playoffs now 7 times since leaving Minnesota. They also have just 7 seasons where they have conceded more than 26 shots per game. How many of the 7 seasons from the first category are also the 7 seasons from the second category? 6. This is not coincidence.

The 7 worst seasons in Stars history in shots allowed per game were 1995, 1996, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and now 2013. The 6 seasons the Stars missed the playoffs were 1996, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012. If they don't finish the season with 3 wins, they will add 2013 to that list as well.

Understand that shots allowed have almost nothing to do with a goaltender. I say almost nothing because his propensity to concede rebounds can affect this, of course, but in the case of Kari Lehtonen, it is widely believed that Lehtonen does almost nothing but help the cause. His goaltending may not be elite, but it surely isn't far from that level as he consistently seems to provide stellar work and keeps the squad alive all year long with some heroic work between the pipes.

I say all of that to simply keep the eyes on the proper target. The blue-line has been rather stable all year long. It was not affected by the trade deadline, the trades, or most of the added discussions about the team. It has avoided most significant injuries and the group of Stephane Robidas, Trevor Daley, Alex Goligoski, Brenden Dillon, Philip Larsen, Aaron Rome, and Jordie Benn has pretty much been the group from start to finish. Jamie Oleksiak played 16 games up from Austin, but this group of 8 has been the group all season long. They were not gutted by absence or front-office decision.

And this group should be singled out for its battle level and its resolve. I have no quarrel with the efforts I see every night and the commitment level to play to the top of their ability level. In fact, there are quite a few in that group that I would count amongst my favorite players with the team. But, as a group, this is where the Stars have needed to upgrade over the last 5 seasons and where they have been unable to find the answers they are seeking.

Like any NFL team looking for a QB, when you try to play hockey with a blue-line that remains sub-standard, everything else feels like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Because, it kind of is. They have upgraded their forwards several times in the last 5 seasons. They have found a franchise goalie. But, they still have Robidas and Daley from that last playoff squad. The Goligoski trade has not turned into what they hoped. Brenden Dillon represents tremendous promise moving forward (as does, we assume, Oleksiak soon). And Aaron Rome has proven a very useful 3rd pair defensive d-man.

They need to get bigger and they need to get better. They need to limit opportunities against their goaltender and that will reduce goals against. They must shave 30-40 goals a season off their ledger on a 82 game season. This starts by shaving 3 shots a game off their ledger or roughly 250 a year. How does this get accomplished? Well, last year, the Minnesota Wild allowed 31.4 shots per game. This year, they have dropped to 27.3 shots per game.

Was it all Ryan Suter and his 13-year, $98 million contract that he signed to move from Nashville to Minnesota? No. Not all of it. But, given that he leads the NHL in ice time this season with 27:04 per game and is thought of around the league as being a rare true "#1 D-man", you can bet that the Wild don't want a refund.

One player helped turn that team defensively. Sure, they have had plenty of other additions that pitched in, but nobody would try to convince you that he isn't front and center. Sometimes, teams spend irresponsibly. Other times, they target what every team needs. The Wild did that with Suter. The Stars get back in line and look for theirs. Thus, all of the buzz about Seth Jones in the upcoming draft.

The trouble with elite QBs, starting pitchers, and defensemen is that there are not enough to go around. The Stars had 2 for many years with Hatcher and Zubov. But, since Zubov has left, they have not had close to a true #1. That is what they seek this summer and that is what can help this team's quality continue.

In the meantime, our merry band of warriors try to write a proud chapter of their history. With flesh wounds and fatigue everywhere, they attempt to win tonight in San Jose and then beat two equally desperate teams in regulation on home ice.

The odds are stacked against them for sure. But, you will not be shortchanged with their efforts.

I have grown to admire this rag-tag bunch and their resolve and battle. And I would very much like to see them rewarded.

But, this week is going to require plenty of good fortune and all hands on deck. It will be can't miss TV, and I would certainly advise you to enjoy the playoffs (or, our version of the playoffs) while you can.

Let's hope it lasts beyond Saturday.

Draft Profile: Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia

2013-04-22T09:13:00.001-05:00

The following is the 8th in a series of draft profiles for the 1st round pick for the Dallas Cowboys. These profiles are put together with the specific needs of the Cowboys in mind, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and game tape to get an idea of who might fit in best with Dallas come draft day. Surely, circumstances will dictate what actually happens on that day, but we will profile the 8-10 most likely candidates and try to kick the tires on each and every scenario an how it relates to the Cowboys in 2013 and beyond.

Tavon Austin
West Virginia
Wide Receiver
5'8, 174
40 time: 4.29 Bench Press: 14 Reps
Born: March 15, 1991 (Age 22)

We all have our ideas of how a draft should work. I am generally a big believer in the idea that many draft cliches are silly and while they sound good on television, they don't make any sense if you are actually running a team. One of them is that "you take the best player available" which is said about a million times every draft season, but if you want to have another 3-13 season, just take guys based on draft grade without consulting your own depth chart to see that you cannot have 3 middle linebackers or tight ends no matter what you do.

Meanwhile, those positions you did not address are still major weaknesses which are exploited every Sunday by your opponent. But, you took "the best player available" - and then you and your entire coaching staff got fired.

Ideally, I am a big believer of taking the "best player available as it applies to this franchise" - which means that if you have Aaron Rodgers at age 29, you don't take a QB with your top pick because he is the BPA. That doesn't make any sense. Rather, you look at try to figure out how this guy fits here.

Which leads us to Tavon Austin. On the surface, it makes no sense for a team with size issues to take one of the smallest players in the draft. And he is small. Pop in one of his tapes and you don't even need to know his number. You just look for the smallest guy on the field and that will be him.

But, in a sport that has evolved to a game where bubble screens and jet sweeps are on most menus, we are looking for matchup problems that have no solution and versatile players who can be used in a number of ways to drive defenses bonkers. Say hello to Tavon Awesome.

What DeSean Jackson, Randall Cobb, Percy Harvin, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker and that group of "weapons without labels" bring to the table is speed and quickness that doesn't quit. They are not prototypical outside receivers as their size limits them from dominating in the air. But, they are issues inside and underneath in a sport that once taught us little guys would get killed inside. They haven't been killed, but instead, seem to dominate the league most Sundays.

Watching Austin is a real thrill in just about any game he had at West Virginia. But, his show of 572 total yards against Oklahoma will not soon be forgotten at the college level. That night, he ran for 344 yards on just 21 carries as West Virginia handed him the ball repeatedly and then watched him look as if he was shot out of a cannon down the field. 8 other times during the year he had at least 10 catches as one of the main targets for Geno Smith with a collection of stem routes that were always there because he cannot be covered in man to man by almost anyone - and yet kills zones with his quickness.

Then, if that isn't enough, he returned a punt and a kick for touchdowns this season as well. He is electric and will be a star in this league for one team or another it seems.

Clearly, he will try to defy science, as players who may never weigh 180 lbs often do when they try to play pro football. It seems if you invest in him, you are depending on his ability to be durable and there is really no way to know for sure until he gets up from a huge hit that he will periodically take. But, he is plenty tough and even seems to enjoy blocking downfield when he doesn't get the ball. He competes hard and can smell the end zone. His instincts are fantastic and he has no fear.

He also has some deep ability that is set up with continuous shallow routes and then when he has you sleeping, he darts 20 yards clear down the field. But, maybe his most interesting ability is to keep the safeties on a leash, with his underneath work, thus springing his team-mates behind him once a safety takes a false step.

In the end, though, it appears you have a weapon that teams fear. And in this game of matchups, that is truly what this sport has become. He should be a 1st down machine, helping you sustain drives and win many games in the right situation.

Here are some youtube cut-ups for your own personal eye-ball test. Find the WR who wears #1 and watch:

Vs Oklahoma

Vs Maryland, Texas, and Baylor

The Case For Dallas Taking Tavon Austin at #18: Any offense in the NFL could make room to try to sort out what Austin could bring to your table. As I said, the matchup issues that he causes alone are worth the trouble. Could you imagine with Jason Witten, Miles Austin, and Dez Bryant occupying coverage what would happen if Austin was in the slot? Sometimes, you are only as good as your worst match-up, and with that combination, I don't know where the defense would cheat. The interesting thing about this draft would actually be if he is available at #18, this is where the Cowboys phone would likely ring off the hook with trade offers to move down and collect more picks. So, in the event that he is on the board, the Cowboys will have an interesting choice to make.

The Case Against Dallas Taking Tavon Austin at #18: The idea that they take another small player with their premium pick would go against all my beliefs about what this team needs. That being said, we should be careful not to paint all small players with the same brush and I will readily admit that Austin seems a rare bird. I just think that they have so many more holes on this team that if I felt that the team was one player away, it might be different. But, as they are currently built, I just don't like the idea of taking your 1st Rounder and spending it here.

There is no question that when this guy gets picked, you hope he goes to the AFC or at least out of the division because you would not want to pass on this talent and then have to play him every year once or twice. Tavon Austin looks like he will be a household name in this league for a long time with jaw-dropping plays. Think DeSean Jackson without the attitude or baggage. What type of player could that be? An amazing one. And that is where I think Austin will be, but I don't think the Cowboys will do it. Instead, if he gets to them, he is the key to grabbing an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder to whoever wants him more.

This one is a tough ranking, but of our 8 profiles, I would list them in this order:

1. Chance Warmack - Report Here
2. Jonathan Cooper - Report Here
3. Sheldon Richardson - Report Here
4. Sylvester Williams - Report Here
5. Tavon Austin
6. Sharrif Floyd - Report Here
7. Kenny Vaccaro - Report Here
8. DJ Fluker - Report Here

Draft Profile: Kenny Vaccaro - S - Texas

2013-04-21T09:33:00.000-05:00

The following is the 7th in a series of draft profiles for the 1st round pick for the Dallas Cowboys. These profiles are put together with the specific needs of the Cowboys in mind, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and game tape to get an idea of who might fit in best with Dallas come draft day. Surely, circumstances will dictate what actually happens on that day, but we will profile the 8-10 most likely candidates and try to kick the tires on each and every scenario an how it relates to the Cowboys in 2013 and beyond.

Kenny Vaccaro
Texas
Safety
6'1, 214
40 time: 4.61 Bench Press: 15 Reps
Born: February 15, 1991 (Age 22)

Over the months and even years, we have spent plenty of time discussing the Cowboys lack of quality safety play. In fact, the latest essay I have written on the topic is here as we looked at the revolving door at the position since Darren Woodson exited stage left after the 2003 season. It is a position of great need on a franchise that has seemingly felt the effects of not having it, and yet never try to invest heavily into it since the snake bite of Roy Williams was felt. In fact, their latest idea, Will Allen comes over after playing in full snaps in just 6 of Pittsburgh's 16 games last year. He was a 4th safety there who received plenty of time with Troy Polumalu's injuries, after backup Ryan Mundy disappointed. Once Polumalu returned, Allen went back to the bench with just 16 snaps in the final month of the season. But, as we head into draft week, Allen joins Barry Church and Matt Johnson as the only safeties on the radar with Danny McCray destined to simply play special teams.

So, despite my repeated strong desire to draft "big" at #18, there are a few sub-300 pound players that should be considered as a real impact pick. And, the top of that list is what multiple scouts have described to me as the "best safety in this draft without question", Kenny Vaccaro.

Vaccaro is a very confident player which has been described as both his greatest strength and at times, his greatest weakness. He is known in the evaluation community as a guy who plays at top speed - faster than his workout times - regardless of his opponent and the size of the game. He want to seek and destroy anything in his path, but that can sometimes work against a player at his position.

The position is called "safety" and sometimes players that play it might not understand why. It is, of course, to clean up all messes that the offense creates and to be the last line of defense in an effort to keep bad plays from becoming touchdowns. Safety requires a player who will not fall for the tricks and traps that the opposition wishes to set, and Vaccaro's speed of judgement sometimes gets him in trouble in this regard. Play action fakes and misdirection sometimes require caution and certainty, and if you find Vaccaro's bad tape, you often see that he eats the cheese in the mouse trap. That has a familiar ending if veteran NFL QBs are ready to make you pay as a young safety.

Otherwise, there is plenty of things to love. He has all of the physical traits you want. At Texas, he played in many different scenarios and didn't look out of place at any of them. There are safeties in the draft that look better as pure centerfield prospects (Cyprien), but when you want a safety who can do just about everything you need - from blitzing off the edge, to covering man to man in the slot, to run support, to splash plays - the consensus seems to build for Vaccaro.

Not only that, but he seems to have leadership qualities, with the biggest one that he leads by example as he sticks his head into any scrum even when he is out-weighed. He is physical and looking for splash moments in a game which is something that has been missing in Dallas for years and years.

He will over-run plays when he charges downfield in run support and dive in the wrong gap periodically. But, at times he appeared to be part of a Texas defense that wasn't the most tightly coached bunch in football history. When projecting a player, you often have to guess where your coaching staff can get him in a year or two. And that is why you start with their physical tools and their love of the game/intangibles and work from there. And in those categories, Vaccaro appears to fit the part of a game-changing safety.

Don't expect Earl Thomas when you draft this safety from Texas, because they are absolutely different players altogether - with Thomas being better in my opinion. But, in a year where there is a feeling that there are potentially 6-8 quality safeties, there are very few that argue that this guy isn't at the top of the list.

Here are some youtube cut-ups for your own personal eye-ball test. Find the RT who wears #4 and watch:

Vs Oregon State

Vs Oklahoma State

Vs West Virginia (note all of the slot matchups with Tavon Austin)

The Case For Dallas Taking Kenny Vaccaro at #18: There is no question that Vaccaro - like Mark Barron in 2012 or Earl Thomas in 2010 - would be an absolute position of major upgrade on a Cowboys defense that hasn't had an above average safety in a long time. Now, to add one that can blitz, play near the line, or in the back field all together just makes his value even better. It would be difficult to argue that in today's NFL, that the Cowboys should stop neglecting a very important part of their defense.

The Case Against Dallas Taking Kenny Vaccaro at #18: The case against begins and ends with the fact that they need to take advantage of a draft where there are significant playmakers at the line of scrimmage available on both sides of the ball. When the offensive line and defensive line could also get a player who might instantly be one of their better players, it is difficult to argue that safety is a bigger concern. The Cowboys lack for impact size and in this draft there are much better options in those categories than another small impact player like Dez Bryant or Morris Claiborne. There is nothing wrong with Vaccaro, but he would have to be a guaranteed star for me to suggest they ignore their "big" deficiencies.

I have not seen the clear elite play that scouts do. I also question whether the Cowboys would be able to develop his instincts to find that next level like some teams that always seem to get the most out of their kids. He is clearly intriguing, but I am not sure I could pull the trigger given the state of this team up front - unless they have plans to add a veteran or two to their lines via free agency. If it were my decision, I take the bigs and then circle back for a safety a bit later given the depth at the position.

So far, of our 7 profiles, I would list them in this order:

1. Chance Warmack - Report Here
2. Jonathan Cooper - Report Here
3. Sheldon Richardson - Report Here
4. Sylvester Williams - Report Here
5. Sharrif Floyd - Report Here
6. Kenny Vaccaro
7. DJ Fluker - Report Here

Draft Profile: DJ Fluker - Tackle - Alabama

2013-04-18T08:52:00.000-05:00

The following is the 6th in a series of draft profiles for the 1st round pick for the Dallas Cowboys. These profiles are put together with the specific needs of the Cowboys in mind, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and game tape to get an idea of who might fit in best with Dallas come draft day. Surely, circumstances will dictate what actually happens on that day, but we will profile the 8-10 most likely candidates and try to kick the tires on each and every scenario an how it relates to the Cowboys in 2013 and beyond.

DJ Fluker
Alabama
Right Tackle
6'24, 339
40 time: 5.31 Bench Press: 21 Reps
Born: March 13, 1991 (Age 22)

Some players are late bloomers and their road to the NFL Draft has developed late in the game. Ezekial Ansah, Margus Hunt, and even a guy like Lane Johnson surely thought nothing of this coming week being a life changing event 5 years ago. But, there are quite a few others that people figured would be in the NFL very early in life.

DJ Fluker is that type of prospect. In fact, in some regards, the fact that he will be taken in the 1st Round next week will be seen as a bit of a disappointment, as he is not likely to go in the 1st half of that round. Think about those expectation levels - where going in the 1st Round is below your expectations.

Fluker is a physical marvel in the sense that he was said to have palmed a basketball for the 1st time as a 10-year old. He weighed 400 in 8th grade. And it wasn't always good weight. But the football weight room has transformed him into a mountain of a human - so much so that he reportedly lost around 20 pounds between his final college game against Notre Dame in January and the NFL Combine in February and still weighed 339. But, it is not bad weight. With a 46-inch waist, he is no Andre Smith. In fact, he appears to be reasonably fit, but certainly no Tyron Smith, either.

Fluker is not on the top tier of potential left tackles, like Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, or Lane Johnson. They are all exceptionally quick sliders who leave no concerns about sealing the edge on a "wide 9 speed rusher". Fluker, on the other hand, looks to be that type of tackle who you might put on the right and ask him to fire forward in a traditional run game with strong-side help in the pass game. I don't wish to sound the alarms about his pass protection, though, as I think that has been harshly judged this spring. With his massive wing-span and decent mobility, he may not be an ideal left tackle, but I think he is fine at right. His balance is is big weakness as there are times where he does end up on the ground. And as any running back will tell you, there is nothing that kills running plays like OL on the ground.

The other concerns for Fluker seem to be that his 21 reps on the bench did not impress (Knile Davis, the RB from Arkansas benched 31 reps), but not out of line for someone who has arms that are 36 3/4. Long arm players seldom do well on the bench, but they do very well on the field. And when you look at him on tape, you will see that raw power is not a real issue for him. He has plenty and pushed 350 lb prospect John Jenkins around the field quite well at the SEC Championship Game.

That Georgia game in particular showed off his ability against Jenkins a giant DT and Jarvis Jones, an edge rusher who is almost built like a safety. You won't find a better combination test of huge and quick, and for the most part, Fluker did a pretty strong job against them. His arms are so long that most times, Jones just was swallowed up. Jones did get a sack, but it was after blitz pickup confusion between Fluker and Eddie Lacy, the RB.

I like Fluker's compete level, which can sometimes be a dicey issue with huge men in this position. But, Fluker looks like he has a mean streak and a pulse that serves him well. He has quite a back story of adversity in his life that has many speaking about his resolve and his character.

It is tough to know exactly what he will be at the next level, but when you play Alabama's schedule, there is plenty of tape to look at against premier NFL prospects at LSU, Georgia, Florida, and so on.

There has also been talk that he could move inside to guard if things went poorly (Leonard Davis), but I like Fluker to stay outside and handle things at RT at a reasonable level. I am not sure he has elite upside, but he can be solid for a longtime. Some have compared him to Phil Loadholt, but I actually like him quite a bit more than Loadholt who does have a soft corner on pass protection.

He has limitations for sure, but I like the tools and the pedigree.

Here are some youtube cut-ups for your own personal eye-ball test. Find the RT who wears #76 and watch:

Vs Georgia

Vs Notre Dame

Vs Michigan

The Case For Dallas Taking DJ Fluker at #18: The Cowboys don't have much on the offensive line that cannot be upgraded. They receive strong play at left tackle, satisfactory play at left guard with Nate Livings, and every other spot on the line could use a better player. With that in mind, targeting offensive line makes plenty of sense. Even if Fluker is the consensus #4 tackle in this draft, he is still a guy who would be an exceptional upgrade and make you feel very good about your tackle position for quite a while. I would have no problem with the team deciding to fix this spot that they thought Doug Free would handle just 12 months ago.

The Case Against Dallas Taking DJ Fluker at #18: The case against is based on speculating what is left on the board. There is an equal lack of depth and talent on the defensive line so if the Cowboys are playing the numbers game and assuming the top 3 tackles and both top guards are gone, too, then there should be some quality on the defensive line. If we were to guess that a top DT like Sylvester Williams is there versus a guy like Fluker, I might opt for the defensive tackle who might be special and then circle back and look for a tackle/guard in Round 2. It might come down completely to the question of what you have to choose from. Otherwise, I like this player.

Overall, Fluker would really help the Cowboys and step right in and start. He would have moments of domination and moments where you wonder if he is too big and not agile enough. Solid, not spectacular. If they take him, you would have to think that their list was rather picked over. I would rate him the 6th best out of the 6 players we looked at, but still an addition they could use.

So far, of our 6 profiles, I would list them in this order:

1. Chance Warmack - Report Here
2. Jonathan Cooper - Report Here
3. Sheldon Richardson - Report Here
4. Sylvester Williams - Report Here
5. Sharrif Floyd - Report Here
6. DJ Fluker

Draft Profile: Sheldon Richardson - DT - Missouri

2013-04-17T09:14:00.000-05:00

The following is the 5th in a series of draft profiles for the 1st round pick for the Dallas Cowboys. These profiles are put together with the specific needs of the Cowboys in mind, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and game tape to get an idea of who might fit in best with Dallas come draft day. Surely, circumstances will dictate what actually happens on that day, but we will profile the 8-10 most likely candidates and try to kick the tires on each and every scenario an how it relates to the Cowboys in 2013 and beyond.

Sheldon Richardson
Missouri
Defensive Tackle
6'2, 294
40 time: 4.99 Bench Press: 30 Reps
January 1, 1989 (Age 24)

This NFL is evolving. To a point that Sheldon Richardson is one of the highly touted defensive tackles in this draft despite looking like a linebacker. He wears #34 as a defensive tackle and honestly, it doesn't even look that weird because runs like a deer.

But, it is that ultimate question in the game of football. While we evolve to better athletes at these positions that were normally reserved for the big and strong players, are we allowing our defenses to get to a point where they can be attacked physically again?

Richardson is a physical marvel who while running a reported 4.81 on his pro day also plays with great speed. He runs everywhere fast and therefore on screen plays where he must head for a sideline runs by many players who don't have his gifts. But, it is one thing to have great wheels, it is quite another to play to the whistle at all times. Does this special player have the motor that doesn't stop until the play stops? If he gets blocked initially, is he now out of the play? With Richardson, you will see the answer is "never". When a play gets past him, you will often see him running to the ball with great pursuit. Trust me, this is not always the case with defensive linemen. Never giving up on a play is a very useful and admirable trait that is important to value. And his 75 tackles as a DT indicate that he is getting in on plays that are not necessarily plays in his direction.

He has been productive at Missouri, playing 24 games in 2 seasons and finding 24.5 explosive plays (Sacks + Tackles For Loss). This ratio is strong (not great) and representative of a guy who can get where he wants to go and do something when he gets there. He also has the ability to drop back into coverage on a zone blitz concept as his movement skills are exceptional. I wouldn't recommend too much dropping of a DT into pass defense, but it at least would be available with a guy like Richardson.

His negatives are out there as well, in that he has said and done a few things that might not be everyone's (Jason Garrett) cup of tea. He missed a game as a violation of team policy and lobbed some quotes out there that indicate he is ready to battle you in the media, too.

But, those items don't concern me too much. What does make me wonder is if this type of player can help you go through the physical teams that wish to ground and pound you. For instance, when we look at guards who are strong as can be decide to double team and shove him, can he do anything to stop it? Does he have a run anchor in physical play or is he simply a penetrating athlete who never stops running? What does he do when Seattle or San Francisco are going to run right at him?

This is nit-picking, for sure, but you hate to draft a 1st Rounder who has a weakness that might make him a target for game-plans because of a weakness. However, there is a give-and-take with regards to skill sets. If a guy cannot be moved in the running game, he is not likely to have much effect in the backfield. Conversely, if a guy has the athletic talents to penetrate and blow plays up deep in the backfield, then he is likely to not have the anchor to stand in there and hold his ground. If a guy can do both, he is Vince Wilfork.

But, Richardson is a magnificent specimen who will impress you with his film - in particular, a 14 tackle, 1 sack performance against Alabama below.

Here are some youtube cut-ups for your own personal eye-ball test. Find the DT who wears #92 and watch:

Vs Alabama

Vs Florida

Vs South Carolina

The Case For Dallas Taking Sheldon Richardson at #18: Richardson is clearly in that category of player that if he slides to 18, the Cowboys would likely run to the podium to take him. He has a few things that might bother you if you are picking #4, but by the time you get to the back half of the 1st Round, you are more than delighted to take on any slight risks. He is exactly the type of player the Cowboys should be targeting in that he is a defensive lineman who has position versatility and also the ability to defeat blocks and make plays in the backfield. If you consider the idea of a premium player at a real position of need and a guy who is a finished product who can step in Week 1 and cause problems for your opponents, look no further than Richardson.

The Case Against Dallas Taking Sheldon Richardson at #18: The one knock on him would be that your team is not physical enough and while he is plenty weight-room strong, I am not sure he plays as strong in the trenches all of the time. If he were to face a strong guard who has good hands, he might have a very quiet day and from that standpoint, a guy like Sylvester Williams might be more what they need. But, there is not much of a case against Sheldon Richardson. He looks like he could really have an impact right away.

In ranking him, I have him as the best DT we have looked at. I still want the both guards, first, but Richardson is a special player at a position where the Cowboys don't have much.

So far, of our 5 profiles, I would list them in this order:

1. Chance Warmack - Report Here
2. Jonathan Cooper - Report Here
3. Sheldon Richardson
4. Sylvester Williams - Report Here
5. Sharrif Floyd - Report Here

Bag of Pucks - April 16 - Dead Cat Bounce Edition

2013-04-16T09:31:00.001-05:00

The life-cycle of champion teams in sports is often limited to a very short number of years strung together where everything happened in concert to lead to greatness. I say this only because as everyone looks at Chicago as the gold standard in the Western Conference, it was the spring of 2006 when I was at the United Center one spring day with roughly 5,000 die-hard Blackhawks' fans who decided that they still wished to witness hockey at the NHL level and decided to come see the Stars.

That is why whenever I hear people talk about Chicago Blackhawks hockey in reverent terms, it must be to marvel at their franchise makeover rather than their tradition of die-hard excellence. As the teenage version of me would attest, there was no better place to fall in love with the game of hockey than Chicago Stadium, but since William Wirtz traded Ed Belfour, Jeremy Roenick, and finally, Chris Chelios from their team of the early 1990's, they had gone largely dormant for almost 15 years when people wondered how a great hockey town could turn its back on hockey.

Regardless, when the Stars lost to Chicago on Monday night, it was meaningful for a few reasons; 1) it ended their 5-game win streak that had them in a position to seize the final playoff spot if they can finish strong and 2) the likely matchup in the 1st round would be against these same Chicago Blackhawks.

As so many games happen in such a small stretch of time, let us recall that 2 weeks ago, this season was declared over by the Stars themselves - that is at least the decision makers who traded away Derek Roy, Jaromir Jagr, and Brenden Morrow within a week in an effort to start anew with picks and prospects for 2013-14.

I absolutely agreed with those moves and the decision the Stars made. At some point, one must decide the upside of a move versus the downside of not making it. For once, the Stars decided that risking a future gain for a small profit in the present wasn't worth it. And they were right.

But, then what happened? With many called up from the AHL, they went on a run at Anaheim and at San Jose where they finished the trip with an unlikely 4 points. They returned home to take on a Kings team that had humiliated them the week before and beat them straight up for win #3 on the trot. Last Friday, it was a very impressive win in Nashville and then a back-to-back win against those same Sharks on Saturday on home ice. 5 wins in a row - a season high - with the last 3 being with Richard Bachman between the pipes.

What the heck was going on?

How was a team that seemed in the mix to sink to the top of the draft lottery by season's end putting together a legitimate win streak against solid competition to the tune of a 5-game cumulative score of 20-9? It is both proof that sports are difficult to predict and that gambling is a very bad idea.

Somehow, they were playing better hockey despite subtracting from their group. Not just the players they traded away, mind you, but the best player in the organization for much of the recent past, Kari Lehtonen. It truly made very little sense, if you dig deep and try to sort out what was going on.

It led me to a term that is seldom used but fun to discuss, the "dead cat bounce". This, basically, tries to define the phenomenon of a stock that rises briefly after a sharp decline. An uptick in performance can get some people to buy-in, only to realize (after it is too late) that they fell for the dead cat bounce. It is named, quite appropriately, because a dead cat falling from a great height will bounce back up briefly. It doesn't mean it is suddenly alive again. It will be motionless on the pavement after that initial bounce.

Understandably, this does not sit well with many fans. They want to believe that suddenly this team figured everything out and is ready to rise up the standings and maybe go on a long playoff run. But, the entire time I watch this stretch, I look for indicators that they are suddenly fixed, and I don't see a ton of evidence that says this turn in play can last.

In the first 36 games, the Stars conceded 31 shots per game. They were getting about 26.7, and if you talk to any analysts out there, they will tell you that puck possession and shots on goal are the best metrics that correlate to winning. And all season long, despite their attempts to change this, the Stars have conceded more than they have created on a rather consistent basis.

In the 5-1 stretch since April 4, they have generated 24.1 shots per game and have conceded 30.3 for a differential that is actually worse than what it was. This, by the way, would verify conventional wisdom that says if you lose some of your better players for a stretch of time, your performance will generally worsen.

They outshot just 1 opponent in those 6 games and were dismantled in the face-off circle (as per usual) 197-173. They have received dynamite goaltending and have received some wonderful abnormalities on shot percentages (Alex Chiasson scoring on 50% of his shots after scoring on 10% in the AHL), but overall, it is the same team except without 4 veteran players who were all above-average contributors at their best. We also shouldn't completely discount the idea that a few of those teams - especially early in the streak - may not have had their proper "game faces" on for a meeting with a Stars team that had just sold off much of its assets. The longer this stretch goes and the bigger the sample size, we are seeing that equalize as well. Chicago did not take the Stars lightly on Monday, nor did the Sharks on Saturday.

I know there is no room for nuance when we discuss our sports teams, but I think there needs to be room for plenty when talking about the Stars. I think there are some very interesting pieces for moving forward, but I never thought that this brief bounce in performance meant anything long-term. Could it save jobs? Could it lead to a playoff-run? It just didn't make logical sense.

They still have many holes in the way they play hockey. They seldom appear to be capable of dominating an opponent - something good teams enjoy several times a season. They rarely pin their opponents in the other end, but often - including last night - still get pinned in their own end. They still have a tiny blue-line that can get over-powered in puck battles and now lack at least one play-making center to help their wingers to find scoring chances.

That doesn't mean that they can't make the playoffs this year, because obviously, they are close to the finish line and the smaller the number of games, the more possible a "hot team" or irregularity can come into play.

But, is this team closer to being a legitimate NHL contender than they were a month ago? Yes, in terms of young assets on their way, but no, in terms of the 20 players that can take the ice each night at the . This is a very long road and the Stars seem to have an idea how they want to get there. Almost none of it revolves around anything that can be done before this summer. So, in the meantime, allow your coach to see what he can get out of the resources he has available. If that is enough to get them post-season hockey, there is almost no downside to that in terms of gaining experience in high-stakes environments.

They have some of the pieces in place and many talented kids on the way. Unlike Chicago, it doesn't appear that any generational talent is in the system (Jonathan Toews or Patrick Kane), but you don't know that for sure until they develop.

I guess the point to this little stretch is that I don't believe it is sustainable and I don't think it suggests that the Stars are a significantly better team than they were a month ago. That doesn't necessarily matter because the standings are the standings and there is nothing subjective to where they stand. They do have a very difficult finishing stretch ahead of them and I would love to see post-season hockey here for the 1st time since George W Bush was our president.

But, part of this rebuild is staying the course and staying patient. Recognize the strides they are making while understanding the distance yet to cover. Know that it takes time and that they are restlessly trying to get there.

There are short-term plays and long-term plays in life and in sports. The Stars made a long-term play to make themselves better when they traded their expiring contracts for assets. We won't know for years if they made sound decisions and we will never know if the team would have won 5 in a row if they didn't make any deals. That is why sports is so intoxicating and maddening. You just don't know so many things that would be useful to know.

But, seeing a kid like Chiasson with kids like Eakin and Dillon tell you that there are young trees replacing the old ones. They don't grow up overnight, but they do grow fast. And watching the growth in 2013 might be worthwhile when we look back in a few years.

Let's see what they can do in these final 6 games to earn more hockey this spring.

Draft Profile: Sylvester Williams - DT - North Carolina

2013-04-15T08:46:00.003-05:00

The following is the 4th in a series of draft profiles for the 1st round pick for the Dallas Cowboys. These profiles are put together with the specific needs of the Cowboys in mind, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and game tape to get an idea of who might fit in best with Dallas come draft day. Surely, circumstances will dictate what actually happens on that day, but we will profile the 8-10 most likely candidates and try to kick the tires on each and every scenario an how it relates to the Cowboys in 2013 and beyond.

Sylvester Williams
North Carolina
Defensive Tackle
6'2, 313
40 time: 5.01 Bench Press: 27 Reps
November 21, 1988 (24)

As we get closer and closer to draft day, you can't help but notice that there are plenty of names that we profile that most people think there is no chance the Cowboys will have a chance to take. Admittedly, Chance Warmack is the ideal Cowboys selection, but since there are actually some analysts who think he might go in the Top 5, we might be wasting internet space even speculating about what he could mean to your local NFL franchise.
Then, there are others who get very little buzz and not only seem like legitimate candidates at pick #18, but if the Cowboys like him as much as I do, you could make the case that they might be able to drop down 5 spots and pick up an additional Top 60 or Top 100 pick and still get their guy.

Which brings us to today's study, big Sylvester Williams of North Carolina. When you talk about a disruptive player who can play up and down the defensive line and trouble the opposition all afternoon, this big dude is just the man you are looking for. In 25 games with the Tar Heels, he had 9 sacks and 20.5 tackles for loss. He demanded double teams and was the focal point of many game plans to make sure they handle properly. This, of course, causes a chain reaction where his mates get more favorable routes to the QB because he is eating up a double team.

So, why, you might be asking, is he most likely still available when the Cowboys will pick? Age.

Williams is 24 years old, and by Thanksgiving Day, he will be 25. That is a very old player to consider taking in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft - and only 16 months younger than Margus Hunt who is thought of as a very old draftee. He took a very odd route to the doorstep of professional football, working in a radiator manufacturing facility right out of high school before moving on to 2 years of community college. He played very little high school football and launched his college football career at a much older age than those around him.

Every year we discuss the guys who are either really, really young (Tyron Smith) or the guys who are really, really old (Margus Hunt). Overall, given the average life spans of NFL players and further the average career of a draft pick with his original team, we are really wasting time speculating on whether this is one of the few guys who will play a decade with you after drafting him. That is a very, very small group of players and the likelihood therefore is minute.

However, if you feel strongly enough to take a player in the draft, you had better hope he sees 2 full contracts with you (Hello, Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins), and therefore it is reasonable to consider whether or not you like Williams enough to understand that age could be an issue down the road. At the same time, the other way to look at that is to say that if Sylvester Williams was a normal 22 year old draftee, then he would not have a chance to make it down to you at #18.

Sylvester Williams looks like an ideal fit at those two defensive tackle positions that the 4-3 demands. You have the 1-technique who shades the center's shoulder and the 3-technique who is on the opposite guard's outside shoulder. Both players have to be able to have a quick jump at the snap that allows them to penetrate the A-Gap (center-guard) and the B-Gap (guard-tackle). He must possess the ability to be quick in tight spaces and have the strength to push through and get to his destination when the OL gets its hands on the player. Williams has both of these attributes for a man his size.

Basically, as I imagined the Monte Kiffin defense, I have had a hard time finding the ideal Warren Sapp comparable. Either the prospects are too big and slow or are super quick but lack that real power. Williams is the closest thing I have seen that has great quickness and super power.

He is rough around the edges (as a guy who hasn't played for years) and will need some coaching. This added to his 24 year old number will keep him from being the belle of the ball. But, put the tape on below and tell me he isn't something the Cowboys currently lack.
Here are some youtube cut-ups for your own personal eye-ball test. Find the DT who wears #92 and watch:

Vs Virginia Tech

Vs Virginia

Vs NC State

The Case For Dallas Taking Sylvester Williams at #18: This is the first of our profiles where I actually think there is a greater than 50% chance that he is there and exactly what they need. I would still hope for the 2 guards (Warmack and Cooper) first, but I honestly like Williams more than Sharrif Floyd which either shows you that I am nuts or that I don't totally care what the crowd thinks (or that I have no projection skills). Regardless, the Cowboys defensive line has lacked disruptive forces on the interior for some time, and with Jay Ratliff looking like he has already played his best football, I think this would be a wonderful selection. Yes, the age does give me some manner of pause, but like I said, I think he might be a Top 10 pick with a normal age. That number represents value and the downside of that number won't be apparent for 8 years anyway. If it does become an issue for the 2021 season, count your blessings that he has been a great selection.

The Case Against Dallas Taking Sylvester Williams at #18: Admittedly, when a player does slide, it is easy to allow the consensus to scare you off. There is no doubt that he can use some technique work and a few people have seen issues with his motor (which I looked for but haven't agreed with). The biggest argument against Williams to me seems to be the idea that the Cowboys need more OL help than DL help at #18. I am fine with that, but please don't take a Safety or a WR over this guy. I really think the Cowboys need to make every effort to go big with their 1st Rounder and perhaps several of their higher picks. There are a lot of reasons they need to err on the side of the 300 pounders right now for the good of the depth chart.

Honestly, if you can just take the age out of your mind, there might be every reason to consider this guy the best defensive tackle in the draft. At least from where I sit, I am tempted to do that. I really think Sylvester Williams is going to be a heck of a player for someone.

So far, of our 4 profiles, I would list them in this order:

1. Chance Warmack - Report Here
2. Jonathan Cooper - Report Here
3. Sylvester Williams
4. Sharrif Floyd - Report Here

Draft Profile: Sharrif Floyd - Defensive Tackle - Florida

2013-04-11T08:44:00.001-05:00

The following is the 3rd in a series of draft profiles for the 1st round pick for the Dallas Cowboys. These profiles are put together with the specific needs of the Cowboys in mind, and is an attempt to examine their resumes and game tape to get an idea of who might fit in best with Dallas come draft day. Surely, circumstances will dictate what actually happens on that day, but we will profile the 8-10 most likely candidates and try to kick the tires on each and every scenario an how it relates to the Cowboys in 2013 and beyond.

Sharrif Floyd
Florida
Defensive Tackle
6'2, 297
40 time: 4.90 Bench Press: Did Not Bench at Combine
May 28, 1992 (20)

A gigantic part of being a proper NFL personnel man - especially a General Manager - who pulls the trigger and gambles on the career of a college football player is being able to project how good of a player he can become in time with growth and development. When you are taking a player who is just 20 years old, you have to be able to imagine what he can reasonably become by the time he is fully developed.

This is especially true with a player like Sharrif Floyd who shows flashes of being a fantastic defensive tackle. He can destroy plays and with his athleticism can spend considerable time in the defensive backfield. But, he will work his way up the draft board based quite a bit on what he could be one day, rather than what he was at the University of Florida.

Don't get me wrong, he had some dynamite performances at times and his tape below will show you that he is a worthy candidate for consideration. But, at the end of the proverbial day, he played 37 games in a Gator uniform and amassed 4.5 sacks total. That seems like a production issue in the SEC that we will need to either explain or account for because if you can't get to the QB at the college level, are you the type of Warren Sapp/Tommie Harris defensive tackle that the Cowboys need?

Pat Kirwan's great book, "Take Your Eyes Off The Ball" discusses the two things he looks for that has helped him decide on which defensive linemen/linebackers that he deems worthy out of college and those he doesn't. The first is "explosion number" based on their combine performances where he adds bench press + vertical leap + broad jump and looks for a number over 70. But, without a proper bench press number to go with his 30" vertical and his 8'6" broad jump, we are merely guessing again on Floyd.

The second though is "production ratio" which takes his college statistics and takes sacks + tackles for loss and divides them by games played. The number is supposed to exceed 1.0 and that tells you he is making enough plays to consider over the course of his career. If you take Floyd's three seasons at Florida, you find that he played in 37 games with 4.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss. This puts him at 0.82 plays per game, but can we look at his full body of work? He was in a deep rotation at Florida where he didn't play a lot as an 18-year old freshman and even as a 20-year old junior was still in a rotation where he spent plenty of time on the sideline. However, if we eliminate that freshman year, his numbers change to 4.5 sacks + 19.5 TFLs divided by 24 games for a ration of the ideal 1.0 that Kirwan speaks of.

There is no question he is an exceptional talent who likely goes very high in this draft. But, if you pop in some of his video you are a bit confused. At times, he looks unstoppable. He gets plenty of "wins" by just his initial burst of the snap which looks like his #1 asset at this juncture of his career. But, why do you still wonder about how good he will be on a consistency basis? Why just 4.5 sacks when he appears that he can do that in a month based on his highlight film?

And what are his weaknesses? Well, besides consistency, I would suggest that he falls into the same trap that many defensive tackles do now days who are converted defensive ends. Remember, all around the sport, the defensive players are being converted to bigger positions to make each spot more athletic. When we make linebackers into defensive ends, we are then taking the old defensive ends and trying to put their quickness on display inside. What happens, though, when a big strong guard attempts to push him back on a run play inside? How about on double teams? We quickly see that his anchor is not what you want there, and he is sometimes a loser in those battles where he does look a bit under-sized against the run.

But, that is the trend with many players, including Sheldon Richardson from Missouri who we will look at next. Do you want explosion players inside? Well, then the big boys who would hold their lines are not going to give you that. This is what causes teams to rotate their defensive tackles for pass rush situations and run situations. If you could designate which personnel you want in there, then this trend doesn't bother you. But, if you take a guy in the 1st Round, you want him to be ideal in all situations. I think Floyd is good in all spots, but against the run, he either beats his man at the snap or he has questionable anchor. Again, though, he is just 20 years old.

Here are some youtube cut-ups for your own personal eye-ball test. Find the DT who wears #73 and watch:

Vs Georgia

Vs Texas AM

Vs Florida State

The Case For Dallas Taking Sharrif Floyd at #18: I think that besides offensive line, the one spot on the field that begs the attention of the Cowboys to take an elite player would be the defensive tackle position. When switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3, we suddenly see how understaffed the Cowboys are on the entire DL, but specifically inside. They have Jay Ratliff who appears to be nearing the end of his run as a special player and Sean Lissemore who is a rotation guy. Beyond that, they don't seem like they have many options, especially with Josh Brent likely to be out of the mix for at least a year. Jason Hatcher is a possibility (pending free agent next winter), but they really need a young stud to add to this group and maybe more than one. Floyd is in the group of players who you would love to have, and his highlight film makes you drool about his 3-Technique upside. And again, he is only 20.

The Case Against Dallas Taking Sharrif Floyd at #18: The unknowns always make me nervous when trying to project how we will feel about Sharrif Floyd in 6 years. You will find that defensive tackle has as high a "boom or bust" history as just about any position on the field. There are so many promising DTs that never turn into anything at the next level. Is Floyd a risk? He appears to be a lower risk than many, but with this many potential Top 50 players who can all play inside on a 4-3, I think I would not gamble on him being the best of the bunch. I like other DTs a bit more, perhaps based on their college production looks more complete. But, maybe that isn't the way to think this one through. Maybe a savvy GM can see 3 years from now that Floyd has the highest ceiling. I just am not capable of that, obviously.

There are deceiving reports about where he could go. He has been associated with the Top 5 for a while, but there have recently been at least a few scenarios where he could get to #18. At that point, he might still be the highest player on their board and therefore you take your guy because like we said, he is solid and at a position that really needs to be addressed. But, ideally, I would prefer several other players before him.

So far, of our 3 profiles, I would list them in this order:

1. Chance Warmack - Report Here
2. Jonathan Cooper - Report Here
3. Sharrif Floyd