Bob's Blog - Live from Lewisville

The Triumphant Return Of TC's Drive Of The Week

2010-01-06T02:06:00.003-06:00

It's the end of the year, most of this week's games were boring, I think it's time for me to indulge and focus on the Bears. They played the Lions, so my heart rate can definitely handle this.
The Lions had just tied up the game at 20. Hester took the ball from his endzone on the kickoff and made it only to the 15.

On the first play, the Bears ran your standard, every-non-zone-blocking-team-in-the-league-runs-it power run play. In this particular edition, tight end Greg Olsen takes on the defensive end one-on-one. He holds his ground long enough for Forte to get by him, but the end fought off the block just after that to chase Forte down from behind after five yards. Everyone else did well enough: the pulling guard stopped the strongside linebacker from making the play. The fullback blocked the middle linebacker. The left tackle and guard double-teamed the defensive tackle and moved him a little before the guard pulled off to... do nothing. The play was over before the safety could get into the action (in part because he was so tentative). Forte did a nice job at the end of the run of falling forward to make this a five-yard run.

This is a play-action pass off of the power run (though the line does not sell that aspect of it. Then again, the line does poorly enough with simple assignments that you might not want to pull them in passing plays anyways.) The strong safety blitzes on this play. With the entire line blocking left, the fullback is responsible for anything coming around the right of the line. The intention was probably just to have him block the defensive end, but with the safety blitzing, he just chips the defensive end before blocking the safety (I guess it's possible that he could be chipping the end no matter what with the hope he would bite on the run fake and take himself out of the play, leaving the fullback free to head out on a pass route). The end gets quick pressure on Cutler. Cutler reacts with a quick throw to Forte in the flat. With the pressure, the throw is a little high, but it still hits Forte in the hands. Forte, however, drops the pass. He had a little bit of room to run and no defenders around him to force the drop. Big mistake by him.

That drop set up third and five. The Lions defense showed blitz, stacking eight defenders right on the line with the remaining three playing with a large cushion. The Lions only rush four and drop the rest into coverage, but with their position pre-snap, they can only cover the shallow middle. Devin Hester is on the outside and is matched up pretty much solely with cornerback William James. Hester goes straight down the field long enough that James is going straight back and is clearly looking to defend the 'Go' route. At this point, Hester angles inside and is wide open. Cutler finds him, and it's a 48-yard gain. The story of this play is Detroit's defensive play-call. The situation clearly dictated a pass, and with everyone scrambling to get into position after the snap, it's more difficult to defend that pass. The Lions may have wanted to focus on stopping a pass right at the first-down marker, which would have been feasible with their formation, but with only four men rushing and so many players playing shallow, they were begging to get killed deep, like they did. Then again, this play could have worked with better players. If any of their linemen were talented enough to generate pressure, Cutler would not have had time to throw deep. If the corner covering Hester were capable of handling him by himself, he would have been covered. If the players playing up near the line had the speed to drop deeper, the corner on Hester could have had the opportunity to play more aggressively. Ultimately though, a coach has to know his personnel and put them in a position to succeed, and this play asked too much of a pretty poor set of players.

This pass is a play-action complemented by run-heavy personnel. The linebackers are held by the fake, and Olsen is past them before they realize it's not a running play. The Lions are playing with one safety deep, and he is too deep to affect this pass. The protection is really good, and it's an easy 31 yards.

The next play is an uninteresting run, so we'll just skip it.

The personnel, spot on the field and the pre-snap motion all made strong suggestions that this was going to be a running play. The Lions again bit hard on the play-action fake. Kellen Wade was open on the left side after chipping a defender to sell the run and then heading out to catch a pass. Desmond Clark, however, made no attempts to hide the fact he was out on a route, running across the back of the end zone. Both were very open because of the fake, and Cutler hit Clark for the touchdown. Matt Forte had a key block in pass protection, using a very effective move to give Cutler just enough time.

On this drive and in this game, the Bears were able to do a lot of things they want to do. They run a lot, especially early, which allows them to use play-action to make up for the fact their receivers are too terrible to get open without help. When you play a team like Detroit that can't stop the run, bites on play-action and has corners that don't have a prayer of holding up by themselves, that plan works. In games against real teams though, the line play leads to Forte smashing into a defender at the line of scrimmage and losing a yard, leading teams to have no fear of the play-action, then the line can't block long enough for something slow-developing like a play-action pass to work. But I guess that's neither here nor there. In this game, they played a team that made their offense look acceptable. But ultimately, it's not a good plan. Despite trading for Cutler, the offense still has too much of its foundation in Forte, who has yet to finish a season above 4.0 yards per carry. There is a receiver running deep on most plays, that's pretty standard in the NFL so the safeties can't creep up, but there aren't enough plays that if Cutler's throwing deep, he has a good chance of succeeding. Should Cutler adapt to the play-calling and do a better job of going where the play design dictates? Of course. But if you're calling a multitude of plays where the design dictates a series of throws to the flat, why trade for Cutler? Kyle Orton can throw to the flat. What Orton can't do is conduct a downfield passing game. Cutler can, but Ron Turner didn't design this offense to achieve those results. So it makes sense to see he will be replaced, and hopefully the next guy creates an offense that utilizes Cutler's unique abilities rather than just hoping he would run this vanilla scheme better than Orton could.

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 17

2010-01-05T10:00:00.000-06:00

The Final regular season 301 breakdown of the year. We now have full season data that I will work off of for the entire off-season in that way that I do, but if you would like your own copy of my spreadsheet, I will be happy to email it to you, or you can simply click on this link and save it yourself.

On Sunday, the Cowboys controlled the game with their offense. Another performance that we could only suggest was spot on. Look at the power run game. I don't just make this stuff up for arguments. The fact remains that in normal down and distance, the Cowboys run the ball with great results. On Sunday, 10 rushes out of "22" personnel, and the final damage was 10 for 101 yards. 10 yards a carry? In the NFL?

For the season, the Cowboys ran out of "22" 140 times for 812 yards or 5.80 yards per carry, despite being 77% run out of that look. That means the defense knows you are running it, and still coughing up 5.8 per snap. This is easily the Cowboys most productive run look, with no other package getting more than 321 yards this season. That was "12" personnel, which had but 4.28 yards per carry.

5.8 for "22", 4.3 for "12" - and there you see why Deon Anderson will always have a job here. FB instead of a WR is the only difference between those 2 looks.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	2	1-2	0-0
12	8	51	4-14	4-37
13	8	22	6-13	2-9
21	5	42	4-17	1-25
22	12	115	10-101	2-14
31	0	0	0-0	0-0
WC22	0	0	0-0	0-0
S21	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	3	17	0-0	3-17
S11	18	172	4-34	14-138
S12	9	50	0-0	9-50
Knee	3	-3	3-(-3)	9-50
Totals	67	469	32-179	35-290

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

One statistical observation about the shotgun package would be this: Since the Washington Home game, S12 has been run 57 times, and 56 of them were passes (98.2%). S11 136 snaps, 22 runs/114 passes - (83% passes). This seems odd, of course - if you insert Martellus for Crayton when you go to S12 instead of S11, you think that would give you more of a running posture. Instead, they are 98% pass with Martellus (in shotgun) and 83% pass with 3 WR in S11. Odd. I wonder if Garrett is aware of this pattern. I also think Bennett's pass catching ability is more noteable considering this evidence.

We will try to speculate what some of this stuff means for our game plan later in the week, but let's break down 6 of the more successful snaps that the Eagles coaches will be trying to work through this week, below:

Video Breakdowns:

Thanks, Brian at DC Fanatic.com . He has done a ton for this project this season, and deserves your occasional visit to his site.

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The Play:1Q - 2/5/25 22 Run Barber +32

What Happened: "13" personnel, lined up like "22" with Phillips in for Anderson at FB. Now, line both TEs up on the left side, and then run a slant to the weakside. Look at the lead block from Phillips. This is impressive stuff, and it shows that the Eagles are too small in the front 7 to stand up to a power run look from the Cowboys. This is the 2nd play of the game, and painfully easy. You are not always going to get 32 yards on this play, but it would seem like you are able to get 5 or 6 every single time you run this downhill play. Each man wins his block, and 68 Free clears out 75 Parker with ease.

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The Play:S12 - 3/3/10 - Pass to Witten TD

What Happened: End of that same 1st drive, the Cowboys need 3 or 4 yards to keep the drive alive. They are in S12 (which as we have said has turned into a pass package a stunning 98%+ of the time). Bennett and Witten on the right, Austin and Williams on the left. It turns into 3 on 2 coverage from the Eagles, with Romo seeing Witten for an easy 1st down, but because Asante Samuel gambles on picking off the pass (which he did with some success later in the game causing the INT) instead of making the tackle, Witten actually backs 50 Witherspoon back into the endzone. Simple pitch and catch that shouldn't have been a TD, but the location of the pass and the poor decision by the DB result in a score.

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The Play: S11 - 3/4/14 - Pass Crayton TD

What Happened: Shotgun 11, with the Cowboys starting in a bunch formation on the left side. Generally, this gets a defense to switch off into some form of a zone coverage to try to keep from getting picked off. So, the Cowboys scheme to show "bunch", then once they feel the Eagles switch off to a zone, they motion Crayton to the sideline to run their zone-busting play with Williams heading into the flat to draw 24 Brown shallow for a split second, and then Romo finds Crayton in the endzone because 27 Mikell cannot get to Crayton in time. I don't think Brown is doing anything wrong here (disagree with Troy) - because if they switch to zone, that is Brown's guy (he isn't caught peeking, he is covering his zone). Text book taking candy from a baby, here. This is all preparation and scheme from Jason Garrett. Well played. I cannot imagine it works this easy in practice.

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The Play: 2Q - 2/17/D40 - S11 40 yd pass to Austin

What Happened: S11, with Barber lined up in the left slot. The reason I show you this is again to demonstrate how much Asante Samuel 22 likes to roll the dice on his coverage. He gambles, and darn near gets a pick 6. But, he doesn't, so he allows a 15 yard pass to go for 40. Also, I think here we get a reasonable look at Romo's arm strength. Not phenomenal, but surely up to the task of the most difficult throw for an NFL QB - the 20 yard sideline out on a rope.

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The Play: 3Q 1/10/O49 22 - Jones 49 yard TD run

What Happened: The masterpiece of the game. Since this is week 17, I am loving the fact that they ran this play one other time that I can remember - Week 1 against Tampa , scroll down and check the Barber TD run. It is a play out of Power personnel, where the play goes right, but the pitch goes left. Watch LG 63 Kosier pulling right and then the LBs follow him. Watch the two LBs in the middle of the play step left, and once they do, Felix is gone. Then, enjoy the Doug Free show, as he sprints down the field and almost keeps Felix behind him. I have never seen a right tackle run like that, but it is clear Doug Free was putting on a show there. WOW!

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The Play: 4Q - 3/12/D24 - Pass to Crayton S11 32 yards

What Happened: S11, and the idea here is to begin to work on 21 Joselito Hansen with Patrick Crayton. This is the luxury of having numbers where you can have Austin vs Samuel, Roy vs Sheldon Brown on the outside, and then Crayton working the slot against Hansen. When this happens, Crayton can make some plays, and we should look for more of this on Saturday night. 3rd and 12, and if Crayton can break a tackle or get some space, it is an easy conversion. Again, we see the importance of an accurate throw that hits a WR in the right location, where Crayton doesn't have to wait or break stride, but simply head up field for a huge gain.

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Target Distribution and Sack studies will be in another entry today. Stay tuned for that.
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Past Episodes:

Week 16 - Washington Redskins
Week 15 - New Orleans Saints
Week 14 - San Diego Chargers
Week 13 - New York Giants
Week 12 - Oakland Raiders
Week 11 - Washington Redskins
Week 10 - Green Bay Packers
Week 9 - Philadelphia Eagles
Week 8 - Seattle Seahawks
Week 7 - Atlanta Falcons
Week 5 - Kansas City
Week 4 - Denver
Week 3 – Carolina
Week 2 - New York Giants
Week 1 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Garrett '08

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Week 17

2010-01-05T07:56:00.001-06:00

Let's take a look at another pretty masterful job by the offense and Tony Romo in the regular season finale against the Eagles. If he can do it again, the Cowboys will get themselves a coveted playoff victory.

Target Distribution:

Targets - Week 17 vs Philadelphia

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	8	7	90	4/0/0
Witten	7	6	76	3/1/0
Crayton	6	4	99	3/1/1
Jones	3	3	3	1/0/0
Phillips	2	2	14	0/0/0
Ogletree	1	1	15	1/0/0
Barber	4	1	14	1/0/0
Williams	1	0	0	0/0/0
Bennett	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	33	24	311	13/2/1

Table Tutorial

We see it every week, so it has stopped being a surprise on any level, but Miles Austin and Jason Witten continue to secure the spots as the #1 and #2 or the #2 and #1. Either way, these are the two that make this whole thing work, and can be counted upon for production regardless of the opponent. They are the typical "they are going to do what they do" guys who are so valuable around the league.

This week, they were joined by who we surely feel was the #2 WR for much of the season, Patrick Crayton. I know that Roy Williams TD numbers and catch numbers are not that far apart from Crayton's, but I can name many of Crayton's big plays. They were clutch and they were needed. Roy seems like the numbers he did put up were often put up with no real impact. Sorry, but it is true.

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	124	94	76%	1030	46/2/3
Austin	124	81	65%	1320	43/11/2
Williams	86	38	44%	596	21/7/1
Crayton	67	37	54%	622	20/5/2
Barber	36	26	72%	222	11/0/0
Bennett	30	15	50%	159	8/0/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Jones	22	19	86%	112	5/0/0
Hurd	12	7	58%	132	3/1/1
Phillips	9	6	67%	62	3/0/0
Ogletree	8	7	87%	96	5/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Totals	543	347	64%	4483	178/26/9

Table Tutorial

3rd Down Target Distribution:

3RD Down Targets - Week 17 - Philadelphia

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD
Crayton	4	3	69	2/1/1
Witten	2	1	10	1/0/0
Austin	1	1	12	1/0/0
Barber	1	0	0	0/0/0
Jones	1	0	0	0/0/0
Williams	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	10	5	91	4/1/1

Table Tutorial

Check out who the Eagles must have left alone on 3rd Down this week - the Patrick Crayton show with his best performance of the season. A wrinkle that worked like a charm for 99 yards with 69 of them and a Touchdown on 3rd Down.

3rd Down Targets - Season Totals

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	34	24	70%	210	16/1/0
Austin	32	20	63%	321	14/2/0
Williams	27	9	33%	151	8/0/0
Crayton	24	15	63%	214	13/1/2
Choice	10	7	70%	60	3/0/0
Hurd	5	2	40%	63	2/0/0
Bennett	5	1	20%	15	1/0/0
Ogletree	4	4	100%	58	3/0/0
Barber	2	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Jones	2	1	100%	5	0/0/0
Phillips	1	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Totals	147	83	56%	1090	57/4/3

Table Tutorial

Not to belabor an often-made point, but wow, Crayton does far more than Roy in these crucial situations.

SACKS

Sack #1 - 4Q - 2/10/18 - 13 Sack Patterson

What Happened: Both of Sunday's sacks were in the 4th Quarter, with the Cowboys up 24-0. This time, Mike Patterson gets to Romo as a 5 man pass rush collapses 6 man protection (OL + John Phillips) as Felix, Witten, and Martellus are all in a pass route. Romo wants to step up in the pocket, but as you can see, if Patterson didn't get him, he was going to be sacked by someone else. No chance for Romo, and it is tough to assign this to one guy, but since Patterson was lined up over center, Andre Gurode was on the scene again. No replays make this a bit fuzzy, but I think that is right.

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Sack #2 - 4Q - 4/3/O36 - SACK 75 Parker

What Happened: S11 in garbage time where the Cowboys want to convert a 4th and 3 and run out the clock. However, 75 Juqua Parker is delighted and shocked to see that the only person accounting for him is Marion Barber who is thinking a quick chip on Parker is all it will take. Parker obviously kept Barber busy (it seems Romo wanted the quick dump off to him, so not only did Parker beat the block, but he also took out the primary). From here, Romo tries to work some improv, but slips and Parker takes credit for blowing up the whole play.

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The Rankings for the season in Sacks Allowed among the OL: Adams - 7, Gurode 5, Davis - 4, Colombo - 2, Free - 2, Kosier - 1.

As a team, the Cowboys allowed 34 sacks in 2009. This puts them right on the league average. The worst pass protection in the league was in Green Bay 51, Pittsburgh 50, and Oakland 49. The best pass protection in the league was again in Indianapolis 13, Tennessee 15, and New England 18.

Week	Opponent	Sack	Blame
Wk 1	Tampa	Barber	Romo awareness
Wk 3	Carolina	Davis	Adams?
Wk 3	Carolina	Beason	Felix/Colombo
Wk 4	Denver	Dumervil	Adams
Wk 4	Denver	Hill	Garrett?
Wk 4	Denver	Williams	Romo
Wk 4	Denver	Dumervil	Anderson
Wk 4	Denver	Holiday	Adams
Wk 5	Kansas City	Gilberry	Davis/Choice
Wk 7	Atlanta	DeCoud	Davis/Choice
Wk 7	Atlanta	Nicholas	Anderson
Wk 8	Seattle	Hawthorne	Colombo
Wk 8	Seattle	Hawthorne	Gurode
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Parker	Witten
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Babin	Kosier
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Jones	???
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Cole	Adams
Wk 10	Green Bay	Collins	Witten
Wk 10	Green Bay	Barnett	Gurode
Wk 10	Green Bay	Matthews	Adams
Wk 10	Green Bay	Barnett	Barber
Wk 10	Green Bay	Woodson	Adams
Wk 11	Washington	Griffin	Davis
Wk 12	Oakland	Scott	Davis
Wk 12	Oakland	Scott	Free
Wk 13	New York	Rouse	Gurode
Wk 13	New York	Sintim	Romo/Garrett
Wk 14	San Diego	Siler	Free
Wk 15	New Orleans	Smith	Romo
Wk 15	New Orleans	Vilma	Gurode
Wk 15	New Orleans	Smith	Adams
Wk 16	Washington	Daniels	76, 70, 68
Wk 17	Philadelphia	Patterson	Gurode
Wk 17	Philadelphia	Parker/td>	Barber, Romo

Table Tutorial

Archives:

Sacks and Targets - Washington

Sacks and Targets - New Orleans

Sacks and Targets - San Diego

Sacks and Targets - New York

Sacks and Targets - Oakland

Sacks and Targets - Washington

Sacks and Targets - Green Bay

Sacks and Targets - Philadelphia

Sacks and Targets - Seattle

Sacks and Targets - Atlanta

Sacks and Targets - Kansas City

Before Kansas City, the Sacks and Targets were part of the Football 301 posts.

The Morning After: Cowboys 24, Eagles 0

2010-01-04T08:57:00.001-06:00

2009 NFC East Division Champions.

How many thought this was a likely result to the regular season when the Giants were running away with the division at 5-0? Or when the Cowboys lost in Denver to drop to 2-2, and needed overtime at Arrowhead to keep from going 2-3? But, 2 1/2 months later, the Cowboys are 11-5 and have won the division.

Good for them. And, I mean that. The Wade Phillips' Cowboys have been painted with the same brush since that 2007 finale against the Giants - all sizzle, no steak. But, this 2009 crew swore they were a different animal. Through subtractions and maturation, they claimed that the leadership had shifted, and that because of that, this is not the same ol' Wade Phillips-led Cowboys.

This group was different. This group would not crumble at the moment of truth, they said. But, I was skeptical when they started slow in September. I was even more skeptical when they started December with 2 straight typical close-but-no-cigar losses. At 8-5, the playoffs were in great doubt yet again. And the Divisional crown seemed like it had floated away.

But, then something changed with this team. Some suggest it was DeMarcus Ware's injury against the Chargers. Others say it was Tashard Choice addressing the team the next day. Personally, I don't have a clue what happened, but the end result to me is watching a Cowboys team that doesn't seem to play like a team that keeps waiting for something bad to happen anymore.

Surely, you know what I am talking about. This team, for the better part of 3 seasons, looked like a team that was under such severe pressure - be it real or imagined - that they were like the kid at the recital that could play the song in practice perfectly, but when the show started he felt something warm running down his leg. Their mental block, perhaps best demonstrated by their QB, was that of a team that was afraid to fail - rather than a team that was ready to win.

Now, if they were a reflection of their QB, I would imagine that we can all understand why he was a mental wreck. Being the QB of the Dallas Cowboys is tough under any scenario. Then, the last two playoff exits from a team riding a 4,755-day drought between playoff wins were either fully blamed on him, or merely the lion's share of the blame was heaped on the undrafted QB. Then, between a high profile "private" life and a high profile spat with Terrell Owens, suddenly the kid is an absolute sports-talk lightning rod from sea to shining sea.

And the bigger the situation became, the more everything came crashing down on his head, culminating in his confusing post-game address to his public following the Eagles 44-6 thrashing of the Cowboys at the end of the 2008 campaign.

He went into hiding, and before we saw much of him again, he had shed both the high profile romance and the unwanted alpha male in his huddle. So would his 2009 be different?

The Regular season sure was. Career high in QB Rating, Yards, and most importantly, both the fewest interceptions and the fewest fumbles of any season in his career. By a huge margin. He looks composed, calm, and in control. And, he plays like it. And whether this made the team click gradually - as if they saw him trying to carry them during those first 2 losses in December - or if something else triggered this perfect December storm, I don't know. But, the team showed up in New Orleans like a new team. A team that those of us who watch this team closely didn't recognize. They were a team that was playing like they don't give a flip. They are tired of playing scared and nervous and "not to lose". They are done doing that. And what we have seen the last 3 weeks is a team that is going for it. They are playing to win. They are playing with confidence and dare I say just a bit of swagger.

Don't ask me how they got here. But, try to stay as long as you can.

The results of Sunday's dismantling of the 24-0 win against the Eagles will not be fully known until next week's rematch is played. The win seemed dominating and dangerously easy in some regards. But, much like any other details of this season, any success is attached to the stated mission of winning in the playoffs, ending the 13 season drought, and thereby detaching themselves from the '07 and '08 Cowboys teams that did not achieve. A win of the division was great, shouldn't be marginalized, and it made you feel better about last year's week 17 failure, but now what?

And that is why this edition of the "Morning After" may seem a bit more of a "state of the union" address rather than a breakdown of the win. I think most of us feel like the Cowboys-Eagles game is only at halftime, with a week between halves - and the first half score doesn't matter.

I loved the domination. I loved the determination. And yes, I even enjoyed the Cowboys leaving Romo out there and throwing for more. Sure, maybe they should have taken him out when it was 17-0. But that is playing with caution and concern. This team has tried cautious and concerned, and it hasn't work. Now, it is playing with disregard for caution, and I dare say that these last 3 weeks now have me wondering what this thing could turn into.

They have self-belief. A direct reflection of the maturity of their QB. Now, let's see if he is ready to break on through to that other side of playoff accomplishment.

How about some observations from the 2nd consecutive shutout against a divisional foe:

* 1st Drive Touchdowns are all part of this Cowboys transformation. I don't quite know why things are clicking, but you cannot underestimate the effect of taking the opening kickoff, driving 80 yards, and scoring 7. In the New Orleans and Washington games, they did not get the ball first, but in all 3 games, after each team enjoyed the ball the Cowboys had 21 points, and the opponents had 0 - with just 1 solitary 1st down. They are ready to play when the game begins. It changes everything.

* 9 times this season, Tony Romo had a QB rating of over 100. Including, 5 of his last 6 games this season. We detailed at the start of December how he has his worst numbers in the biggest month. We can no longer say that. His last 6 games, his ratings were, in order: 121.2, 112.1, 111.7, 104.0, 86.7, and 106.4. That more than qualifies as saving his best for last.

* That Touchdown run from Felix Jones demonstrates why so many Cowboys fans go crazy over him. I know that I have painted myself as a bit of a pessimist on the Felix front, based solely on the idea that I have a very hard time projecting him as a #1 RB if he cannot take the beating. But, with his workload slowly increasing, I must concede that we are making progress in that regard. Anyway, the TD was that same Power 35 play they have run to the right again and again. Kosier pulls and kicks out, the 2 TEs cave in, and we have big success running right. But, a few times this season, they will run that play, except pitch it left when the entire play is running right to see if the LBs are keying off the blockers instead of watching the ball. We saw it work to perfection, as he only had 1 or 2 guys to beat (with help from Witten) and his speed did the rest. More on that play in Football 301 on Tuesday.

* Field Position is important as usual. Let's check the Eagles starting field position for their first 9 drives: P20, P14, P19, P20, P20, P12, P20, P20, P20. Tough to score points when your shortest field is 80 yards. Full marks to Mr Buehler and Mr McBriar for their fine work once again.

* No, I do not believe for a second that the Eagles were "playing vanilla" or holding things back. Look, they had a chance at the #2 seed and a bye week. If they were making decisions based on the idea that they are about to drop to the #6 seed, then they have no business in the playoffs anyway. Now, if your point is that they called off the dogs at 17-0 and showed nothing in the 2nd half, I will buy that. But that 1st half performance was not because the Eagles were trying to hide things. They just got their butt beat.

* Mike Jenkins is a pro bowler, whether he is invited or not. I apologize for having ever doubted his Football IQ. He is a very intelligent, competitive CB who the Cowboys are lucky to have. I am quite leery of Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin being held down a 3rd time, but so far, whatever Wade is doing is giving the Eagles absolute fits.

* The fact that the Cowboys passed for an all-time team record 4,483 yards in 2009 should tell you once and for all that the Cowboys do not miss Terrell Owens statistically. And the fact that they are 11-5 and seem to like each-other should tell you once and for all they do not miss Terrell Owens emotionally, either.

* Slant passes to Patrick Crayton that go for 30 yards are both wonderful and suspicious with their ease. How did that keep happening?

* With the exception of the Brent Celek show and Asante Samuel guessing right once, the key players on that Eagles roster were collectively very quiet. Do not make the mistake of expecting to see that happen again on Saturday night. I expect they will get their act together and offer a far more abrasive stand when these teams meet again. But as far as this business of it being impossible to beat a team 3 times in a season, my numbers indicate that there have been 19 such instances in NFL History, and in fact, the team going for the 3-game sweep is actually 12-7. Which would suggest a win rate of 63%, and proving that it is far from impossible. Of course, the Cowboys are 0-2 in such instances. So....

* Take this for what it is worth, which isn't much, but I do not particularly care for putting on "Division Champs" shirts and hats as the game ends, and then go across and shake hands with Andy Reid, who you have to play again next week, with your hat on. It seems like A) something that doesn't require much celebration and B) it could be interpreted by Philadelphia as bulletin board material. Again, not the biggest issue in the world, but since I have accused the Cowboys of over-celebrations and getting satisfied with themselves quite easily, it did strike a small nerve last night.

* The Cowboys had 40:23 minutes of possession. They also had 474 yards of total offense. The runners combined for 32 carries for 179 yards, and a QB who threw for 311 yards. To suggest that the offense had great success is fair. Troy Aikman suggested that the Eagles will try some different things next week. I think they better.

* Four more sacks, with 2 from Anthony Spencer. No matter how much pressure you get, it still looks like you need more. Donovan McNabb always seems like he is one throw from really hurting you, and the Eagles have to feel like they left plenty of points on the field.

* Who have you given up on more? Roy Williams or Martellus Bennett? You just can't predict this stuff in training camp, can you?

So here we go. Now we can spend the next several days breaking these two teams down further. Saturday Night cannot get here soon enough. The Cowboys have come a long, long ways. But for Wade Phillips, Tony Romo, and this entire Cowboys team, a playoff win is badly needed. This can change their legacy. To feel good about Cowboys football, it must start with ending that drought of 1996. Until they do, they will be painted with the same brush that all the Cowboys have been painted with in the "post-triplets" era. But, bouncing the Eagles would demonstrate progress and change. Wade would no longer be the winningest coach who has never won a playoff game (and he likely keeps his job) and Romo would then have as many playoff wins as a guy like Drew Brees (1!).

To say it another way, 11-5 is nice. A division title is nicer. But, to feel good about the direction the Dallas Cowboys are headed, they need at least one more victory this season.

Saturday Night.

Stat Project Update

2010-01-04T02:03:00.001-06:00

Turnover Battles for the Week

Winner	+/-	Loser
SF	+5	Det
GB	+4	Sea
Car	+4	NYG
ATL	+3	Buf
Arz	+3	STL
SD	+2	Ten
Cle	+2	Oak
NYJ	+2	Ind
Cin	+1	KC
NE	+1	Jac
Pit	+1	Bal
Chi	+1	Min
Hou	E	Mia
Dal	E	Was
TB	-1	NO
Phi	-2	Den
Totals for Week	12-2-2
Totals for Season	153-46, 77%

Table Tutorial

Turnover Season Numbers by Totals

Total	Record	Win %
+6	1-0	100%
+5	5-0	100%
+4	16-0	100%
+3	27-1	96%
+2	41-16	72%
+1	62-29	68%
Totals	153-46	77%

Table Tutorial

100 Yard Rushers

Name	Team	Opp	Yards	W/L
Jonathan Stewart	Car	NYG	206	W
Jerome Harrison	Cle	Oak	148	W
Chris Johnson	Ten	SD	142	L
Ray Rice	Bal	Pit	141	L
Cedric Benson	Cin	KC	133	W
Carnell Williams	TB	NO	129	W
Thomas Jones	NYJ	Ind	105	W
Jamaal Charles	KC	Cin	102	L
Totals for Week				5-2
Totals for Season				76-36, 68%

Table Tutorial

300 Yard Passers

Name	Team	Opponent	Yards	W/L
Charlie Frye	Oak	Cle	333	L
Chad Henne	Mia	Hou	322	L
Donovan McNabb	Phi	Den	322	W
Brett Favre	Min	Chi	321	L
Kurt Warner	Ari	STL	313	W
Totals for Week				2-3
Totals for Season				63-34, 65%

Table Tutorial

Game Plan Friday: Philadelphia Eagles

2010-01-01T11:02:00.002-06:00

The NFL is awesome for an infinite list of reasons. But, somewhere on that list, would have to be the amazing knack of the schedule makers to always find match-ups that are too good to be true.

So, those same Philadelphia Eagles, who are the gold standard in the NFC East for the entire decade, are coming to Arlington in Week 17 for a rematch of the Week 17 all-or-nothing game that concluded the 2008 season in Philadelphia? 44-6 has a chance to be avenged? What are the odds that the schedule makers would make this happen? Pretty good. What are the odds that the two teams would emerge at the top of the NFC East this season to play a game like this with everything on the line with 1 game to play? The luck of the NFL strikes again.

Well, the Cowboys have put themselves in position. Like we talked about back before this stretch run began, my projections from Dec 4th have proven correct :

8-3 as they enter December is very nice. 3 wins in your next 5 will win the division (I assume). 2 wins in your next 5 gets you a trip to the playoffs. 1 win or less, and you have no business in the NFL Playoffs.

This is their chance to win that 3rd game, secure their division title, and set up the first home playoff game in the new stadium. It is all right in front of them.

Let's take a quick look at home game history:

On December 11, 2005, the Cowboys beat Kansas City at Texas Stadium to get to 8-5 and put themselves in a decent spot with 3 weeks to play to make the 2005 playoffs. The next week, though, they were drilled in Washington, and finished 1 game behind the Redskins - and were swept by those same Redskins - and missed the playoffs.

Little did we know, that over 4 years later, we would be looking at that game against the Chiefs as the last game before the Cowboys forgot how to play a home game late in the season. Check out their "Post Dec 1" home games since 12/11/05:

Date	Opponent	W-L	Score	Spread
1/1/06	St Louis	L	20-10	Dal by 12.5
12/10/06	New Orleans	L	42-17	Dal by 7.5
12/25/06	Philadelphia	L	23-7	Dal by 7
12/31/06	Detroit	L	39-31	Dal by 13.5
12/16/07	Philadelphia	L	10-6	Dal by 10
1/13/08	New York	L	21-17	Dal by 7
12/14/08	New York	W	20-8	Dal by 3
12/20/08	Baltimore	L	33-24	Dal by 5.5
12/13/09	San Diego	L	20-17	Dal by 3.5

HTML Tables

1-8 in their last 9 home games after December 1 - favored in all 9 of them. This surely puts to rest the explanation that the reasons the Cowboys do not have a good December record is because their schedule is so darn difficult - they were expected to win every single one of these games! This presents plenty of questions, not the least of which would have to be with this trend, how can Vegas continue to make the Cowboys favorites?

Regardless, the Cowboys clearly do not have a very good grasp of closing out teams in front of their home fans in the Tony Romo era. In a December that has been filled with Romo quieting critics on a number of fronts, this is his final regular season hurdle; a home game with all of the marbles for a NFC East Division Crown laying right there in front of you.

Yet another reason to wish with all of your might that the Cowboys can close out their most hated of rivals.

ON OFFENSE:The Eagles lost back to back games back in November to the Cowboys and a trip to San Diego to take on the Chargers. This dropped their record to 5-4, and some of us wondered what the death of Jim Johnson and the exit of Brian Dawkins had done to their defense. Since then, they have played 6 games, won 6 games, and held 4 teams under 300 yards offense. This is a huge number. In fact, a 5th team, Washington, gained 303. The only team to blow this trend out of the water were the Giants on that crazy 45-38 Sunday Night game when the Giants lost, despite 512 yards of offense.

But, what is making the Eagles defense remind us of the Eagles defense over the years? Easy. Takeaways and Sacks. 15 takeaways in the last 6 games (The Cowboys have 19 takeaways in 15 games) show us they are doing what they do - go get that ball and keep it. They have also out-sacked Dallas 42-38 this season, so they still get in your QB's face, too.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys move the ball up and down the field. They are 3rd in the NFL with their average game yardage at 394 per contest. The troubling part of this trend remains, though, that they are merely 14th in the NFL in points per game (22.5). We saw more of that on Sunday in Washington. 393 yards, 17 points. Remember what Bill Parcells used to tell us - that every 100 yards should represent 7 points. So if you are getting 400 yards, you need to be close to 28 points.

Points left on the field. You don't need to explain the issues to Cowboys fans. They know all about the untimely penalties, the dropped passes, the lack of converting a 3rd and inches, and so on. That must improve here at money time.

OFFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - Finish the Job, Tony - By now, anyone who has paid attention has come to accept that Tony Romo has arrived as a QB. He has played so soundly with the weight of the football world on his shoulders that you are almost proud of the guy for making this big step. However, we all know that the big prizes are still in front of him. He has already won a division title, but a 2nd in 3 years would enhance things. But, more importantly, this is a true showdown game. Win that, and then we get to slaying the dragons in the playoffs. But, he just has to keep doing what he is doing. He looks calm, composed, and confident. Don't change anything.

From the last Philadelphia game, here is what I wrote that next morning:
Adam Schefter had a few stats on his twitter page that I thought you would enjoy: All those Tony Romo bashers should note that on third downs last night - only third downs - Romo compiled a passer rating of 149.1 and,then this one: On third down, where Dallas won the game, Tony Romo was nine-of-11 for 140 yards, one touchdown and that quarterback rating of 149.1.

Wow. Burn the blitz on 3rd Down. Look at this perfect execution:

By the way, check out the entire Football 301 from the game at Philly Here , it is good stuff before this rematch - you know the coaching staffs from each side are pouring over this stuff.

2) - Slow down the Blitz by pounding the rock - Let's not kid ourselves. That first meeting was A) the first win was waaaay closer than your remember and B) the Cowboys offense was successful because they hit the perfect play once or twice. Our memory recalls those 2 or 3 huge plays that highlighted the win in November, but in reality, the Cowboys offense was stifled a big part of the night. Expecting the Cowboys to hit that home run to Austin down the left sideline on 3rd and long is like expecting to pay your mortgage on a lottery ticket. You got away with it last time, but you can't expect it this time. You must grind out drives the way you have proven you can in about 13 of the 15 games so far this year - by pounding the rock, and play action passing. That is the only consistent way to slow down those exotic blitz looks.

3) - Get Short Yardage squared away - I have certainly spent enough time on this already (check the Monday and Tuesday entries if you missed them), so I won't repeat myself over and over. But, I will be very interested in seeing if the Cowboys try to clean up what they have installed, or if they try out some new wrinkles that seem to be logical alternatives to what they have already tried. These could perhaps include Tashard Choice and or Felix Jones in these spots - although I will tell you that Felix seems to be a horrendous choice for 3rd and 1 unless he can get airborne, which we have certainly not seen so far. The other idea might be to trust Tony with the sneak a bit more often. Heck, they are already asking him to hold for kicks, so why not be the occasional short yardage back, too?

4) - Flozell vs Trent Cole - Speed rusher who has 12.5 sacks against a left tackle who looks like he is wearing down again. Trent Cole is a perfect attack on Flozell, and we all know it. Can he keep Cole from being a huge factor in this game? If so, the Cowboys are in great shape.

ON DEFENSE: I write this entire preview with a certain pain in the back of my head. It is all built on this premise: It is tough to beat the Eagles. It is tougher to beat them twice in one season. And, gulp, it is seemingly impossible to beat them thrice.

All of that may not have particular Cowboys defensive applications, but let me now apply it to the defense this way: The Cowboys took DeSean Jackson away in the 1st meeting for just 2 catches and 29 yards. In fact, if you include rookie stud Jeremy Maclin (boy, the Eagles seem set at WR now for a while after the last two drafts, eh?) they combined had 5 catches and 73 yards.

Only 1 team in the NFL has more 20 yard passes than the Eagles 61 (the Chargers with 64), so since they do it every week, I would say the odds are good that they will do it Sunday. But, if you take away the big play and make them mount a drive, you will be pleased with the results.

Is it textbook pessimism to suggest that the Cowboys cannot do that again? On the fast track in Arlington? Perhaps, but I think that it is realistic to assume that playmakers will eventually make plays, and then you just have to try to limit the overall damage. So, how do we get there?

DEFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - 93 - 94 Meet at the QB - Now that I have jumped to the conclusion that Anthony Spencer has arrived based on his play since Thanksgiving, now I am going to make the dangerous jump to expect him to get to the QB around the edge and to race DeMarcus Ware to McNabb. This, of course, is a real key. How many times over the years did Ware and Ellis get there a second too late as McNabb whips the ball 50 yards down the field to Fred Ex, Hank Baskett, or Terrell Owens for a big score. Must get there quickly and change the game by putting him down and making the Eagles max-protect.

2) - Jenkins/Newman on the spot again - Since I write this almost every week it is more of a sign that the NFL is about the QB and the CBs. Every week, we ask Jenkins and Newman to shut down the huge threats down the field, and they often do a pretty salty job. Well, this week might be one of their more difficult challenges. So, can they do it? Can they keep the game in front of them? Surely, this is a major tipping point in this contest.

3) - Takeaway, Takeaway! - In 7 games this season, the Cowboys had 0 interceptions. But, in December, they have a 4 game streak going, where they picked off Manning, Rivers, Manning, and Campbell. Donovan McNabb is traditionally a very low-interception QB - he has never thrown more than 13 in a season (a shockingly low total) - so, if they can step in front of a pass or two on Sunday, it could have a remarkable impact on the game.

4) - Ratliff versus Nick Cole - Jaamal Jackson was lost for the remainder of the season last week when he blew out his knee. So, that means that RG Nick Cole must slide over, which weakens two spots on the Eagles OL. And which two spots? The two spots that traditionally seem to have to deal with Jay Ratliff. I am not suggesting that Mr Cole has a pork chop hanging around his neck, but Ratliff has been playing extremely strong football, and I can only imagine how well he should be able to dominate the line on Sunday. Trust me, this matchup is freaking out the Eagles coaching staff more than any, and this causes dominoes throughout the line. Perhaps, this allows Marcus Spears to make a play (Seriously, it could happen) or single coverage for Ware or Spencer in a given sequence.

EDIT: DC Fanatic sent me an email after he read this today:

Just read the game plan. Great stuff. I always feared this game would be for all the NFC East marbles.

This was the postgame playbook vid from the Nov game. Good stuff on the Cowboys defense slowing down the Eagles deep pasing game.

Thought it would fit nicely in with points #2 and #3 on the defensive objectives.

SUMMARY: A game I absolutely cannot wait for. A game that should be an absolute thriller. I am happy to report that the only way there seems to be a rematch possible next week is if it is in Arlington (If Minn wins) next week. In fact, if the Cowboys win, it seems pretty bloody likely that the Eagles are here next week, too.

So, we could ask the question if that is good or bad, or the Cowboys could stop waiting for fate to do them a favor and start making their own fate. That means to go for it all. And if that means beat the Eagles in back to back weeks, then do it.

Do you remember Jan 2, 2000? On that day, the Cowboys ended the 1999 season with a 26-18 win over the Giants to end the year 8-8, and then go to lose to Minnesota in the Wildcard round. I remember this because this was the week that Norm Hitzges came down from 570 KLIF to work at our station. But, the real reason I bring it up is that this was the last time the Cowboys won a regular season finale. Seriously. 10 years ago.

I said back in August that this team seemed different. They seem to operate independently from Cowboys failures past, and they can prove it on Sunday and beyond. They could easily lose this game, but if they want to separate themselves from their predecessors, it is time they win.

Cowboys 24, Eagles 20

Past Issues:

Washington Redskins Game Plan

New Orleans Saints Game Plan

San Diego Chargers Game Plan

New York Giants Game Plan

Oakland Raiders Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

Green Bay Packers Game Plan

Eagles Game Plan

Seattle Seahawks Game Plan

Atlanta Falcons Game Plan

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan

Stars Win a Thriller

2009-12-30T10:27:00.003-06:00

Wow.

What else can you say sometimes when leaving the arena after a game like that?

Wow, because the Chicago Blackhawks look like the absolute real deal. I am always skeptical about a team that's two most marquee-worthy players are both 21, wondering if they will have the fortitude to push through in the spring time when the 7 game wars begin, but that team is deep, talented, and has a nice edge, too.

Surely, goaltending will be questioned along the way, but over half the season Christobal Huet and Antti Niemi have been solid. Last night, Huet certainly allowed a few softies, but we saw Chicago on full display last night.

They were on a roll, they are strong and talented, and they were playing very well, with home-and-home sweeps of their division rivals Detroit and Nashville without even going to overtime once. 8 points up for grabs? They grabbed all 8. And their opponents got 0.

Then, last night, in front of a holiday crowd, the Blackhawks started the game with a show of force that will be talked about for quite a while. In the first period they had 21 shots (16 in the first 10 minutes) and a power play that bordered on unfair. They swarm the net with such reckless abandon that you felt for Marty Turco trying to find the puck in the mess. And 3 times, he didn't. Chicago scored 3 in the 1st Period, and you actually felt ok about only giving up 3. They were that good.

But, also, "Wow", is a deserved word for the way the Stars bounced out of that. There are so many games in a season where there are times where a team emotionally cuts bait with 1 out of 82 games and lives to fight another day. It is not something anyone is proud of, but it exists in pro athletics for sure. So, when the Stars went to the room after the first 20 minutes, you had to wonder if they were emotionally beaten already.

Not a chance.

2 goals to start the 2nd period, one from Brad Richards and Loui Eriksson teaming up, and then a very fortunate centering pass from Steve Ott that went off a Chicago forward and into the net. Somehow, despite enduring a hockey clinic, the Stars had a 4-3 lead less than 22 minutes into a 60 minute game that will have to go down as one of the craziest of the season.

For the next 38 minutes, it turned into an intense playoff-like game with hitting, bad attitudes, and tense moments. Patrick Kane, who may be the biggest hope for USA hockey since Modano/Roenick/Hull, scored again with 3 seconds left in the 2nd period, and we again questioned if that was going to turn the game to the more talented Blackhawks.

But, Wow. The 3rd Period was awesome. Daley hits Ott up the middle, who finishes a break with a sweet shot to the top corner past Niemi. 5-4, Stars with 16 minutes to play.

So, would 5 be enough? Would the Stars try to milk home a lead for 15 minutes against this gang? To their immense credit, they did not. They stayed after it with attacks and pushed for goal #6. It never happened, but in doing so, relieved much of the pressure around Marty Turco. Not all of it, mind you, as Turco still had to do plenty of work, and actually had a pretty good game, even though the stats will show he allowed 4 goals. If you saw the game, you know it could have been 8.

The Stars got the win, with some very intense final seconds, but 5-4 gave the Stars another win over a top opponent. Why can't they play the bottom feeders with the same results as they do against the Blackhawks and Sharks? I am sure Crawford would love to figure that one out.

My only regret was that it was another game where so many Stars fans were frustrated that they could not see the game on their television (this time it was Versus against Directv again, but really, isn't it always something this season with the TV broadcast rights?). Hopefully, that will be worked out very soon.

Otherwise, what a night. Which can best be summed up with 3 letters.

W-O-W

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 16

2009-12-29T08:17:00.000-06:00

The win over Washington broken down. Surely, we see that the Wildcat/Razorback effort is still extremely experimental. I am quite curious if they continue to try
and roll that out as the games get more and more "imperative".

Overall, these numbers demonstrate what we have seen all along; A very strong offense who at the moment of truth may not be able to get that yard, but otherwise, the evidence is such that we can suggest this is a formidable unit that gives its opponents significant stress in gameplan choices.

The questions of the RB rotation continue, and Tashard Choice's role continues to diminish it seems. Felix Jones shows all manner of burst and promise, and now his work load is steadily increasing, but it appears they still have no belief that he can handle the job in short yardage. Perhaps that is a spot where Choice would be worth a look. This is a major issue, of course, if this team must get a yard, they must have a solution. It would be easier if Marion Barber would simply take the decision out of play by getting that yard.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	2	15	2-15	0-0
12	9	36	2-4	7-32
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	8	115	5-19	3-96
22	14	43	11-44	3-(-1)
31	0	0	0-0	0-0
WC22	2	-13	2-(-13)	0-0
S21	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	26	169	7-40	19-129
S12	7	28	0-0	7-28
Totals	69	393	29-109	39-284

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

I cannot wait to see what the Eagles/Cowboys match-up will give us, but here are some looks at the game where they tried to contain Albert Haynesworth from destroying every play.

Video Breakdowns:

Thanks, Brian at DC Fanatic.com . He has done a ton for this project this season, and deserves your occasional visit to his site.

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The Play:1Q - 3/9/35 - Pass to Crayton +16

What Happened: S11, and the Redskins are showing a big blitz. 5 end up coming, and they get a real push on Romo. Here is what I want to focus on today, is the composure of Tony Romo under duress. These first few plays all show the same thing. He doesn't scramble, he doesn't freak out. He stands tall, and buys Crayton a little extra time. It helps, of course, that the Redskins are playing a soft zone, leaving a huge hole for Crayton to sit in on 3rd and 9, but I think it all happens as a result of a more mature Tony Romo, who is having the game slow down around him and he is putting good throws on the money under pressure.

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The Play:2/G/4 - TD pass to Williams

What Happened: 12 personnel, with an interesting blocking scheme. Martellus goes in motion to help off of Left Tackle and then release into the flat. If Romo had the slightest confidence in Marty, he might go there with the ball. Meanwhile, Kosier pulls from LG to outside RT to pick up his man. I have always been interested in why this makes more sense than simple straight-on pass protection, but Kosier does a nice job with Philip Daniels. From there, more Romo composure and the willingness to flirt with 64 Golston and buy that extra moment and throws a perfect pass to Williams in the corner. Besides Bennett, it doesn't look like there is much more available.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Play: 2Q 1/10/16 - Jones +14

What Happened: Power Run 101, out of "22". Here, the announcers focus on Doug Free, who demonstrates a very impressive show of strength as he blocks down on the LDE. Also, note the typical strong lead by Deon Anderson and Jason Witten getting their guys. Then the burst of Felix allows an easy 14 yards. 22 personnel out of 1st and 10 is such a better advantage than 4th and 1. Fewer defenders in the box make this a simple exercise in taking candy from babies.

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The Play: 1/10/28 Pass to Witten +69

What Happened: 21 personnel, this is based on 2 things in football. 1) the play action fake. Even if it is not well sold (and it isn't), the defense must respect it if you are a good running team on 1st and 10. and 2) the blitz. If you send 7, you better get there. Because if you don't, then the QB has a major advantage with 3-4 receivers again 4 DBs and a wide open field. Jason Witten runs against Laron Landry and a perfect throw gives Witten a chance to demonstrate he can still run a bit. A perfect example of burning a blitz. We certainly know that this scares a defense out of future blitzes.

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The Play: 2Q - 3/8/40 - Pass to Austin +18

What Happened: S11 and another brilliant moment on 3rd and 8 where Romo shows composure in the face of an oncoming pass rush and delivers another clutch throw to his #1 target. I say the #1 target because the other #1 target candidate is Jason Witten, and since he is trying to pass protect 1-on-1 against Brian Orakpo, he is not a potential target. Look at Witten here try to hold off 98, and I can only imagine he is begging Romo to hurry up and get the ball out of there, because he has his hands full. But, Romo steps out of harms way for a split second, and then delivers the ball. These videos are a great sign for the development of a QB to an elite level.

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Target Distribution and Sack studies will be in another entry today. Stay tuned for that.
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Past Episodes:

Week 15 - New Orleans Saints
Week 14 - San Diego Chargers
Week 13 - New York Giants
Week 12 - Oakland Raiders
Week 11 - Washington Redskins
Week 10 - Green Bay Packers
Week 9 - Philadelphia Eagles
Week 8 - Seattle Seahawks
Week 7 - Atlanta Falcons
Week 5 - Kansas City
Week 4 - Denver
Week 3 – Carolina
Week 2 - New York Giants
Week 1 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Garrett '08

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Week 16

2009-12-28T19:03:00.002-06:00

Not Romo's best day of the month, but a very effective evening for the passing attack. And the trends in the offense are very interesting to notice as we get to the most crucial time of the year...

Target Distribution:

Targets - Week 16 at Washington

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	10	9	92	7/0/0
Witten	7	6	117	4/0/0
Barber	5	4	30	3/0/0
Jones	4	4	27	0/0/0
Crayton	3	1	16	1/0/0
Williams	4	1	4	0/1/1
Bennett	2	0	0	0/0/0
Hurd	1	0	0	0/0/0
Ogletree	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	37	25	286	15/1/1

Table Tutorial

Austin = 9-10 for 7 First Downs. Witten = 6-7 for 4 First Downs. Here are your Top 2 targets on the team. In a few days, I want to compare Austin's year to Owens as a Dallas Cowboy, but it is clear that there is little to no drop off. The real question is becoming who is the #3 target? Roy or Crayton?

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	117	87	74%	954	43/1/3
Austin	116	74	64%	1230	39/11/2
Williams	85	38	45%	596	21/7/1
Crayton	61	34	56%	523	17/4/1
Barber	32	25	78%	208	10/0/0
Bennett	29	15	52%	159	8/0/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Jones	19	16	84%	109	4/0/0
Hurd	12	7	58%	132	3/1/1
Phillips	7	4	57%	48	2/0/0
Ogletree	7	6	86%	81	4/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Totals	510	323	63%	4172	165/24/8

Table Tutorial

3rd Down Target Distribution:

3RD Down Targets - Week 16 - Washington

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD
Austin	4	4	48	4/0/0
Witten	3	3	26	2/0/0
Crayton	2	1	16	1/0/0
Totals	9	8	90	7/0/0

Table Tutorial

I know people are going to start whispering if I keep going on and on about Miles Austin every week, but are you kidding me? 4-4 on 3rd Downs for 4 conversions? You often find out who a QB trusts on the money down. Well, against that backdrop, this week, we see that Austin, Witten, and Crayton have earned the trust on different levels of Tony Romo. And who is missing completely?

3rd Down Targets - Season Totals

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	32	23	72%	200	15/1/0
Austin	31	19	61%	309	13/2/0
Williams	26	9	35%	151	8/0/0
Crayton	20	12	60%	145	10/0/1
Choice	10	7	70%	60	3/0/0
Hurd	5	2	40%	63	2/0/0
Bennett	5	1	20%	15	1/0/0
Ogletree	4	4	100%	58	3/0/0
Barber	1	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Jones	1	1	100%	5	0/0/0
Phillips	1	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Totals	137	78	57%	999	53/3/2

Table Tutorial

SACKS

Sack - 1Q - 1/10/31 - Sack by Daniels

What Happened: 22 personnel, and this is a spot where it is tough to assign blame for allowing the lone sack of the night. Adams is beat badly by Brian Orakpo while Chris Wilson slices between a double team of Davis and Free. This flushes Romo forward in the pocket where Philip Daniels picks up the free tackle after being held up by Martellus Bennett and Deon Anderson. I feel like Adams being beat is what causes this thing to collapse, but I also have a hard time charging him for a full sack. I may need to consult with my guys in the film room.

----------------------------------------------------
The Rankings so far in Sacks Allowed among the OL: Adams - 7, Davis - 4, Gurode - 4, Colombo - 2, Free - 2, Kosier - 1.

Week	Opponent	Sack	Blame
Wk 1	Tampa	Barber	Romo awareness
Wk 3	Carolina	Davis	Adams?
Wk 3	Carolina	Beason	Felix/Colombo
Wk 4	Denver	Dumervil	Adams
Wk 4	Denver	Hill	Garrett?
Wk 4	Denver	Williams	Romo
Wk 4	Denver	Dumervil	Anderson
Wk 4	Denver	Holiday	Adams
Wk 5	Kansas City	Gilberry	Davis/Choice
Wk 7	Atlanta	DeCoud	Davis/Choice
Wk 7	Atlanta	Nicholas	Anderson
Wk 8	Seattle	Hawthorne	Colombo
Wk 8	Seattle	Hawthorne	Gurode
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Parker	Witten
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Babin	Kosier
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Jones	???
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Cole	Adams
Wk 10	Green Bay	Collins	Witten
Wk 10	Green Bay	Barnett	Gurode
Wk 10	Green Bay	Matthews	Adams
Wk 10	Green Bay	Barnett	Barber
Wk 10	Green Bay	Woodson	Adams
Wk 11	Washington	Griffin	Davis
Wk 12	Oakland	Scott	Davis
Wk 12	Oakland	Scott	Free
Wk 13	New York	Rouse	Gurode
Wk 13	New York	Sintim	Romo/Garrett
Wk 14	San Diego	Siler	Free
Wk 15	New Orleans	Smith	Romo
Wk 15	New Orleans	Vilma	Gurode
Wk 15	New Orleans	Smith	Adams
Wk 16	Washington	Daniels	76, 70, 68

Table Tutorial

Archives:

Sacks and Targets - New Orleans

Sacks and Targets - San Diego

Sacks and Targets - New York

Sacks and Targets - Oakland

Sacks and Targets - Washington

Sacks and Targets - Green Bay

Sacks and Targets - Philadelphia

Sacks and Targets - Seattle

Sacks and Targets - Atlanta

Sacks and Targets - Kansas City

Before Kansas City, the Sacks and Targets were part of the Football 301 posts.

The Morning After: Cowboys 17, Redskins 0

2009-12-28T09:41:00.003-06:00

Anytime you beat a division rival on the road with such ease that a 17-0 final score is still the source of some level of discontent, you know that either A) you are a pretty good team, B) your opponent is certainly not, or C) both of the above.

I choose C.

I imagine that all accounts of the Cowboys' 10th victory of the 2009 season will focus on the importance of taking care of business and setting up the chance to play for a NFC East division title in 6 days time. We will spend the next few thousand words discussing things that went right or wrong, but I would find it simply irresponsible, on a day when teams like the Saints and Giants would welcome a less-than-perfect win, to point out the absolute lead story was that this Cowboys team responded very, very well to the Saints victory by rolling out a road-trouncing of the rival Washington Redskins.

The Redskins, as we knew all week (or all decade), are a mess of the highest order. Their organization seems to often hamstring their own team's efforts with the insane nature in which they do business. No matter how goofy Jerry Jones makes things in Dallas, to suggest that he has set up the most chaotic environment in the NFL is to ignore the Raiders and Redskins. So, at least we have that going for us.

The story of Game #15 for me would have to be the precision with which the Cowboys offense seemed to operate with again - only to leave many, many points on the field due to the inability to get the last yard at the moment of truth. The Cowboys called 5 running plays on 3rd and 4th down with 2 yards or less to go. All 5 were some variation of a power run to Marion Barber. And all 5 failed. It is certainly not difficult to imagine the trouble that can cause down the road. If you combine that with a kicking situation that is less than rock-solid, you can understand the ice the Cowboys stand on is exceedingly thin. Think about it: The Cowboys are in a crucial game with huge stakes (every game from here until the Super Bowl would qualify as a crucial game with high stakes) and they face a 4th and half of a yard from the opponents 31 yard line. Do you trust the kicker to make a 49 yarder? No. Do you trust your OL and RB to be able to ge that last 18 inches? How could you after the issues against the Chargers and Redskins in the last few weeks? The quandary is there for all to see.

So, why can't this team move the chains when they need to most? Especially when I have spent the season talking about how this team seems to be a solid power-run team. Well, running in "21" or "22" personnel is one thing in normal down and distance situations because on 2nd and 8, you do not face 10 or 11 in the box. But, when it is 4th and half of a yard, the defense knows what you want to do. They plug a jumbo personnel group right at your OL, and if your OL cannot push back, the RB doesn't have much of a chance. This is not to say that Barber is not to blame - because he is. Barber looks tentative and frankly a bit lacking with his usual strength in busting through with his relentless abandon. But, I also have to question the boys up front getting and winning their individual blocks. We have quite a few plays to consider in these last 3 weeks that fall under the "short yardage" banner, and the fact is that there are a number of reasons they are not getting it done. But, I don't think you blame Jason Garrett (this time). What else would you call on 4th and 1? You play the percentages. And the percentages suggest that any NFL offense should be able to get 18 inches. But, especially this NFL offense, who has many rich men on that offensive line - some who attend the Pro Bowl on a regular basis. This isn't Garrett's problem. This is on the players.

But, otherwise, the passing game still looks sharp - with Miles Austin and Jason Witten again combining to show us how elite they really are. Austin had 10 balls thrown his way, caught 9 and moved the chains 7 times. Witten had 7 passes in his direction, caught 6 for 4 first downs. The efficiency with which those 2 have operated this year have almost made the frustrations of watching Roy Williams a story that while annoying, does not seem to hamstring the offense dramatically.

The defense was very good at snuffing out any of the feeble attacks the Redskins could mount. This was not a stiff test for them, but it was more of the same from the last several weeks, with Ware and Spencer on the flanks looking the part of destructive OLBs in a 3-4 defense that make production extremely difficult for most offenses.

Other observations from the completion of the first season sweep of Washington since 2004:

* Let's start with Joe DeCamillis who was in the hospital at the time of the game with a "sudden attack of appendicitis" according to Evan Grant. Man, that guy has had a rough 2009. The Special teams coach suffered a broken neck back in May during the practice facility collapse, and now will stay in a Washington hospital until Wednesday. I think most of us have appreciated his improvements to the special teams, but for some reason writing about his coaching seems a bit irrelevant when the guy is still in his hospital bed, so let's wish him a speedy recovery and get on with some of the other details. However, I should say this: When you talk to guys who work for the Cowboys - you often get the claim that he is a great candidate to be a future NFL head coach.

* Keith Brooking has been such a great addition to this team. He makes plays and he brings intensity. I have no idea what that audio routine proved that NBC showed of his "WWF-style" pre-game rant, but it did bring a smile to my face. After the Zach Thomas era came and left with little result or effect, I was not overly optimistic about what the Brooking signing might mean. But, the intangibles that he has presented this squad seems to be just what was needed. But, as we have found over the years, the ability to speak in the lockerroom often is dictated by the ability to make a real difference on the field. He, obviously, can do both.

* It is clear to me that Cris Collinsworth has no idea who Alex Ovechkin is.

* That Touchdown pass on the 1st drive of the game was such a thing of beauty that further demonstrates that Tony Romo is a player with rare talents. He doesn't panic in the face of a pass rush, and is more than willing to buy that extra split second to make a play. That particular play looked dead in the water with Kedric Golston breathing down his neck, but in typical Romo fashion, when he is in the red zone he seems to develop even a better feel for what is available. He lobbed that pass on a perfect trajectory to Roy Williams and scored a TD that was beautiful. The ball floated right over the hands of DeAngelo Hall and right in front of Reed Doughty.

* So, London Fletcher's hit on Patrick Crayton is not a penalty? Blow to the head and defenseless receiver rules don't apply if they don't feel like calling it?

* If you read this blog on a regular basis, you know I was not terribly bullish on shares of Doug Free when Marc Colombo broke his leg in Green Bay. But, I must tip my hat to the young man and suggest that he shows plenty of promise. I still think he can stand to gain some strength, but he appears to have plenty of fight and desire, as well as solid quickness for a tackle. If a guy enters with no experience to a team that is on a playoff run, then plays 6 weeks without any sort of train wreck games that cost you, then it is time to declare his showing a solid success. I do wonder about short yardage with him versus Colombo (evidence shows this team was quite a bit better when Colombo was there), but otherwise, Free looks like a keeper.

* NBC's game broadcast always has more information and statistics than the other networks. I assume this is because they can focus on 1 game rather than the 6 or 7 that Fox and CBS must prepare for, but regardless, I enjoy the numbers that they produce. In particular, the stat of Roy Williams leading the NFL in "on-target drops" with 10 was a number that merely confirmed our beliefs. I think it might be harsh to call that interception last night Roy's fault completely - as the ball may have been a tad high - but, I need Roy to out battle Carlos Rogers for position on that play. It always looks like he has half as much fight for the ball that he needs.

* 1 play after that interception, Anthony Spencer (with help from Igor Olshansky) tried to take the ball right back on a sack that almost resulted in a fumble strip, too. Spencer looks so confident right now, and you can clearly see that when a pass rusher is no longer satisfied with just the sack. He wants to take that ball, too. And he came darn close. I think Spencer's breakout stretch is continuing quite well.

* I don't believe Terence Newman enjoys dealing with Santana Moss. His interception early was a real momentum changer, but through the night, anytime Moss grabbed one of those WR screens (which appears to be about the only route on the Redskins' route tree), Newman looked fairly uncomfortable trying to contain, control, and tackle. Moss has given him fits for so many years, and I believe Newman would be happy to be done with him.

* Albert Haynesworth is an absolute impossible matchup. I am not sure I have ever seen Kyle Kosier tossed around like #92 caused last night. Albert is a handful, and while I agree that he is a bad investment for a team like Washington that possesses so many holes that spending a huge chunk of change on Haynesworth doesn't make sense. However, he is tremendous quality. And he is unblockable in certain spots. And, he is perhaps the best reason the Cowboys couldn't win their blocks on those short yardage situations. So, I understand this idea that Washington overpaid and that it likely will not work. I also understand that his conduct this past week is not admirable in any way. But, wow. He is unstoppable.

* I am very much on the record with my opinion of Wade Phillips. I think he should have been fired in the lockerroom after 44-6. But, since he wasn't, I wonder where we are now. They are 10-5, and have a chance to win their division. If they do, they will host a playoff game with an 11-5 record. If they win the first playoff game in 13 seasons, we would have to admit progress was made. That is alot of "ifs" but, if those "ifs" happen, how do you fire him?

* Jay Ratliff is awesome. And there is no bigger punctuation mark for a big Cowboys performance than a Ratliff sack celebration. What a stud.

So, 10 wins. A playoff berth. And a rematch with the hated Eagles for a division crown on Sunday afternoon. This is what you want. This is riveting stuff. Who knew 2 weeks ago that the season was going to take this turn?

Now, Green Bay and Arizona play in Week 17, and the Eagles are here. All 4 teams are likely to play during the Wildcard weekend, with the only things assured are that Arizona will be a home team and that Green Bay will be on the road. Beyond that, it is all in front of us.

Strap in.

Game Plan Friday: Washington Redskins

2009-12-24T21:36:00.000-06:00

The great thing about beating the New Orleans Saints is that it shows us all that the Dallas Cowboys are capable of playing well, and beating a quality opponent in a game that matters. Put another way, that game proves that the Cowboys are a good team.

The bad thing about beating the New Orleans Saints is that you have to play again this week and prove that last week wasn't the same concept as a "broken clock is right twice a day". Could you imagine? Could you imagine beating the Saints and restoring the hope of a difference-making playoff run, and then backing it up with a loss to the Redskins who are playing out the string in one of their silliest seasons in years (the Skins have a chance to go 0-6 inside the NFC East with a loss on Sunday - something they have not done since the 1994 season of great comedy when Norv, Heath Shuler, and friends finished 3-13).

One nice aspect about playing a bad team like the Redskins is that because it is the Redskins, you are less likely to assume they are going to roll over and play dead for you. Of course, the opposite is also true for the opponent, which suggests that there is no way the Redskins can back up their "give-up" routine with the Giants on Monday night with a similar performance on Sunday against the most hated rival, the Cowboys.

On the other hand, you have a lame-duck coach, a potential lame-duck QB, and who knows how many other members on this team are packing their bags. For crying out loud, they have assistant coaches interviewing for the head coaching job, while serving a head coach who hasn't been fired yet! You cannot write stuff this good.

The Redskins have hired a new GM in Bruce Allen. Human nature would suggest that players would play with all of their might to impress their new boss. Of course, this is a silly assumption based on the idea that NFL players know that every single play or practice rep is filmed and scrutinized for all to see their entire careers. Having Allen in the press box won't impress these guys. They either have pride or they don't - and that effort on Monday night speaks volumes.

With 2 weeks to play, the Cowboys can still win the division with 2 wins, and they can still miss the playoffs quite easily, too. This is no time to screw around with the Redskins - although we should understand that since they came to Arlington a month ago, the Redskins took the Eagles to the 59th minute, had the Saints beat but let them off the hook (thanks, Shaun Suisham!), buried the Raiders in Oakland, and then Monday Night.

Week	Dallas	New York	Philly	GB
-	9-5	8-6	10-4	9-5
16	@ WAS	CAR	DEN	SEA
17	PHI	@ MIN	@ DAL	@ ARZ

Table Tutorial

ON OFFENSE:Last week, I am proud to say our timing was pretty strong in noticing the virtual disappearance of the deep ball on the offense. As we mentioned during Football 301 this week, I believe Jason Garrett may have worked his finest performance in 24 months.

This week, let's spend a moment on this unreal job the "Romo Friendly" offense has done when it comes to taking care of the pigskin. Here are some numbers for you.

(1) - The number of Multiple Interception Games from Tony Romo this season. That game was in Week 2 in the Cowboys Stadium opener. 1. Amazing job. Last year, Cowboys QBs had 5 multi-pick performances, including 3 by Romo.

(12) - The number of Giveaways the Offense had in December of 2008. 12 turnovers in 4 games (including one game where they had 0 - so 12 in 3 games!) is the recipe for utter disaster. In 3 December games this year, the Cowboys have 1 giveaway - the Marion Barber fumble before Halftime in New York.

(3) - The number of teams in the entire NFL with fewer Giveaways than the Cowboys offense's 17. Green Bay, San Diego, and Minnesota. There is your entire list. Well done.

(8) - The number of games this season where the Cowboys won the Turnover battle. In the entirety of 2008, they won only 5 games in that department.

With that in mind, let's visit a gameplan:

OFFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - Continue to listen to your Identity - The Cowboys have been doing this for 14 weeks and surely, by now, they have proven to Norm and anyone else who did not believe it that they are a top-notch power football team that plays its best football with Romo under center and the threat of a run. This threat may or may not be real, but it is present. From there, they can do so many things and spread the ball in so many directions. There are times (Green Bay, December 2008) where they forget this identity and attempt to switch to the Saints/Patriots offense. But, this is who they are. This is what they do.

2) - Protect Tony Romo, Protect the Football - Tony Romo has been sacked 31 times this season. This is not anywhere near the best mark in the league (Peyton Manning, 10), nor is it anywhere near the worst mark in the league (Aaron Rodgers, 49). It is pretty much right smack in the middle. But, the good news is the Cowboys and Romo are in a 4-way tie for the fewest interceptions thrown by any team in the NFL with Green Bay, Minnesota, and Jacksonville. Usually, these two numbers are connected, but it is still the job of the QB to keep sacks from resulting in interceptions. Aaron Rodgers has done the best job this season at avoiding this, but Romo has been phenomenal.

3) - Prove You Can Cash In - Of course, this means score Touchdowns when you get the chance, rather than settling for Field Goals - something they did pretty well against the Saints until they settled for 3 late in the game and ended up with 0. But, this does provide us a chance to discuss the addition of Shaun Suisham to the squad and the exit of Nick Folk that made all of this possible. Through 12 weeks, Suisham was 12-12 in Field Goal attempts. He missed only 3 kicks his entire year (18-21), with 2 against the Cowboys in Arlington that likely cost them that game, and then an extreme chip shot (23 yards) against the Saints, which surely cost them that game, too. He, replaces Folk who missed a 24-yarder, also against the Saints, and kicks against his old team - the Redskins. One of my colleagues suggested that Suisham may have quite an advantage since he knows how to kick in Fed Ex Field, but I think my colleague is nuts, since Suisham got fired since he obviously did not know how to kick in Fed Ex Field.

4) - Roy Williams, Please Stand Up - In Week 11, the Cowboys got an ugly win. So, ugly, in fact, that Laron Landry was comfortable assessing Roy Williams after the game: "Scared," Landry said flatly. "Yeah. I know he was. Y'all can quote it, too. Y'all can tell him right now, tell him I'm sayin' it. I can say it right now: yeah, he was scared, I think. I told him he was scared." I know we often times ignore quotes from guys who are always running their mouths, but since Roy Williams had his ribs pounded in Denver, hasn't he looked scared in quite a few scenarios? I cannot swear he dropped that crucial 3rd Down in New Orleans because he was bracing for a hit, but I also cannot rule it out. Fact is, he needs to fight for his honor. If he doesn't show up big down this stretch, I would give serious consideration to saying goodbye in the offseason. He is no better than Patrick Crayton right now, and he is miles behind Miles.

ON DEFENSE: In the Cowboys 9 wins this season, they have 25 sacks (2.77 per game). In the 5 losses, they have a grand total of 9 (1.8). Sometimes it is tough to tie results to particular stats, as footballis far too complicated...But, against the Giants, the Cowboys got no pass pressure (1 sack which was late, late in the game) and the Cowboys lost. Against the Chargers, the Cowboys got no pressure and lost. And against the Saints, the Cowboys got to Drew Brees 4 times, and won. Not saying it is everything, but there seems to be some level of connection between the Cowboys getting results and their pass rushers getting to the opposition.

Against Washington in November, the Cowboys could not get to Jason Campbell. They also couldn't stop him on 3rd Down. In games where the Cowboys cannot get off the field on the money down, they struggle, but I suppose that is like saying when you fall in the water, you get wet.

DEFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - The Anthony Spencer Show - The good folks at ProFootballFocus.com, tell us that of the 71 QB Hits from the Cowboys defense, 25 have been from Spencer. QB Hits are basically "almost sacks". The rest of the Top 5: Ware 14, Brooking 7, Ratliff 5, Bowen 5. So, as you can see, 25 is strong. I am about ready to declare that Anthony Spencer is working his way off the "Bust Watch List". This guy can play. After 0 sacks in 10 games, he has 3.5 in his last 4. But, more importantly, he passes the eyeball test. He is always around plays. He just needs to make a few more of them.

2) - Don't let that Running Game Breathe - Have you ever heard of Quinton Ganther? Apparently, he went to Utah. Well, it appears it is up to him and Rock Cartwright to screw up the Cowboys drive to an NFC East division title. If they get that done, the Cowboys really are a team in need of a heart transplant. Ladell Betts and Clinton Portis are one thing (or Terry Allen or John Riggins), but Quinton Ganther? Flood the box, and make them pass quickly.

3) - Takeaway, Takeaway! - What is this? 5 Takeaways in the last 2 road games? DeMarcus Ware stripping the ball from Drew Brees when he goes in for the sack? Mike Jenkins grabbing another interception? Football gets so much easier when you get pressure and takeaways. If they continue to average 2.5 takeaways per road game, this team can go on a Super Bowl run. I am dead serious.

4) - Prove that you are Real - Here is the question we all want to know the answer to. Are the Cowboys really capable of playing that way defensively on a semi-regular basis? Can you trust the Cowboys defense to actually play to their paper? To get a stop when you truly need one? To win a game on its own merits? Numbers are nice, but like we always say here, football is about money downs and particular scenarios. When the chips are in the middle of the table, are they the defense that allowed the Chargers to do whatever it wanted 2 weeks ago, or the defense that did not allow the Saints anything 1 week ago? I don't think we will ever get a full conclusion on the quality of a "Wade Phillips Defense" until they win something. A division title would mean a home game in the playoffs. And that would likely lead to the first franchise playoff win in nearly 5000 days. That would be something.

SUMMARY: The Redskins are trying to prove they aren't quitting dogs. The Cowboys are trying to prove they can get on a roll in December. It is possible last Saturday turned the fortunes of this organization. But, it is all based on beating a bitter rival, in a cold weather (not too bad according to the forecast, but a chance for snow and temps around freezing), prime-time affair.

I think the Cowboys should anticipate a strong push from Washington, but a game that should be there for the taking after halftime. For some reason, a Shaun Suisham kick would seem extra poetic, but I don't figure the Skins can hang in there for that long.

Cowboys 31, Redskins 17

Past Issues:

New Orleans Saints Game Plan

San Diego Chargers Game Plan

New York Giants Game Plan

Oakland Raiders Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

Green Bay Packers Game Plan

Eagles Game Plan

Seattle Seahawks Game Plan

Atlanta Falcons Game Plan

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan

Updating The Turnovers

2009-12-24T19:42:00.002-06:00

This is a chart that I keep on the side for my personal reference that I thought some of you might enjoy as reference tool for yourself:

	Cowboys Turnovers			Opponents Turnovers
Game	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Giveaways	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Takeaways	+/-
W @ TB	0 (0)	0	0	1 (0)	0	0	E
L vs NYG	1 (1)	3	4	0 (0)	0	0	-4
W vs Car	0 (0)	0	0	1 (1)	2	3	+3
L @ Den	1 (1)	1	2	2 (1)	0	1	-1
W @ KC	2 (2)	0	2	0 (0)	0	0	-2
W vs Atl	1 (1)	0	1	2 (1)	2	3	+2
W vs Sea	2 (1)	0	1	2 (2)	0	2	+1
W @ Phi	0 (0)	1	1	0 (0)	2	2	+1
L @ GB	2 (2)	1	3	2 (0)	0	0	-3
W vs Was	1 (1)	1	2	0 (0)	1	1	-1
W vs Oak	0 (0)	0	0	1 (1)	0	1	+1
L @ NYG	1 (1)	0	1	2 (1)	1	2	+1
L vs SD	1 (0)	0	0	0 (0)	1	1	+1
W @ NO	0 (0)	0	0	2 (2)	1	3	+3
vs Phi
@ Was
Totals	12 (10)	7	17	15 (9)	10	19	+2

Table Tutorial

Same chart, but from the 2008 season:

	Cowboys	Turnovers	Opponents	Turnovers	-
Game	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	Fumbles (Lost)	INTS	+/-
W @ Cle	1 (0)	1	2 (0)	0	-1
W vs Phil	2 (1)	1	3 (1)	0	-1
W @ GB	3 (1)	1	2 (1)	0	-1
L vs Wash	1 (0)	1	0	0	-1
W vs. Cin	2 (1)	1	1 (1)	1	0
L @ Arz	4 (1)	0	2 (2)	1	+2
L @ St Lou	2 (1)	3	0	0	-4
W vs TB	0	0	1 (1)	0	+1
L @ NYG	1 (1)	3	3 (2)	1	-1
W @ Wash	1 (0)	2	0	1	-1
W vs SF	1 (1)	0	2 (1)	1	+1
W vs Sea	0	1	2 (1)	1	+1
L @ Pitt	3 (2)	3	2 (2)	0	-3
W vs NYG	2 (0)	0	2 (0)	2	+2
L vs Balt	2 (0)	2	5 (1)	0	-1
L @ Phil	4 (4)	1	1 (1)	0	-4
Totals	29 (13)	20	28 (14)	8	-11

Table Tutorial

Stat Project Update

2009-12-23T02:44:00.000-06:00

Turnover Battles for the Week

Winner	+/-	Loser
Bal	+5	Chi
TB	+4	Sea
Dal	+3	NO
ATL	+3	NYJ
NYG	+3	Was
Ten	+2	Mia
Phi	+2	SF
Car	+2	Min
Ind	E	Jac
NE	E	Buf
Arz	E	Det
Hou	E	STL
Pit	E	GB
SD	-1	Cin
Cle	-2	KC
Oak	-2	Den
Totals for Week	8-3-5
Totals for Season	141-44, 76%

Table Tutorial

Turnover Season Numbers by Totals

Total	Record	Win %
+6	1-0	100%
+5	4-0	100%
+4	14-0	100%
+3	25-1	96%
+2	38-15	72%
+1	58-28	67%
Totals	141-44	76%

Table Tutorial

100 Yard Rushers

Name	Team	Opp	Yards	W/L
Jerome Harrison	Cle	KC	286	W
Jamaal Charles	KC	Cle	154	L
Michael Bush	Oak	Den	133	W
Maurice Morris	Det	Ari	126	L
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	Ind	110	L
Chris Wells	Arz	Det	110	W
Jonathan Stewart	Car	Min	109	W
Frank Gore	SF	Phi	107	L
Chris Johnson	Ten	Mia	104	W
Totals for Week				5-4
Totals for Season				71-34, 68%

Table Tutorial

300 Yard Passers

Name	Team	Opponent	Yards	W/L
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	GB	503	W
Aaron Rodgers	GB	Pit	383	L
Matt Schaub	Hou	STL	367	W
Chad Henne	Mia	Ten	349	L
Matt Cassel	KC	Cle	331	L
Carson Palmer	Cin	SD	314	L
Tony Romo	Dal	NO	312	W
Peyton Manning	Ind	Jac	308	W
Philip Rivers	SD	Cin	308	W
Donovan McNabb	Phi	SF	306	W
Totals for Week				6-4
Totals for Season				61-31, 66%

Table Tutorial

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 15

2009-12-21T11:50:00.000-06:00

You know what is funny about pro football? A man's career can turn on 1 day if that day has enough profile and impact.

I wonder if Jason Garrett's finest night in 2009 will start the wheels turning back in his direction as it pertains to the "hot assistant names" around the league. Think about it, you know him as a guy who frustrates you on occasion. But, around the league, he is the guy who put the plan together to tame the Saints in front of their home fans. Well done.

Back on August 18th , I wrote about the "12" personnel plans in both Dallas and Green Bay - something that has come to pass as one of the big trends in the NFL. It is interesting to see how the Packers have used it enhance their passing game by helping Finley bust out into a major downfield threat, and the Cowboys have used it to enhance its running game and to find good balance in its attack.

Check out Saturday Night, as we see the beauty of "12" even without Bennett on the roster. John Phillips, a draft-day afterthought, fills in for Bennett the last 2 weeks, and the "12" group has 16 snaps for 184 yards. Nearly 12 yards per snap! That is what we call devastating.

The Under Center/Shotgun balance was also perfect (41/31), with S11 being used primarily as 2-min and 3rd Down, but then "12" and "22" got cooking and did its thing.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
12	16	184	7-38	9-146
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	9	29	5-14	4-15
22	21	48	16-50	5-(-2)
31	1	2	1-2	0-0
WC22	1	4	1-4	0-0
S21	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	1	0	0-0	1-0
S11	20	152	5-39	15-113
S12	3	23	0-0	3-23
Totals	72	442	35-147	37-295

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

When doing these breakdowns, there is so much information and we tend to read meaning into all of it based on the simple results (did they win or did they lose?). If they won, everything they did was great. If they lose, everything they did was wrong. I try not to fall into this trap, but in this particular game, I believe they got the game plan right. They mixed in the deep ball well. Many plays set up the next play. The Quarterback carried out the plan.

But, do I only feel that way because it worked? Do you? Do we congratulate Jason Garrett based on DeMarcus Ware getting a sack and fumble to save the game? Food for thought as we prepare for Washington.

Video Breakdowns:

Thanks, Brian at DC Fanatic.com . He made his phone-in debut to BaD Radio yesterday, and deserves your occasional visit to his site.

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The Play:1Q - 1/10/O49 - TD to Austin

What Happened: Just a thing of beauty - the return of the long ball and the "9" route. It starts with the Cowboys showing run in with "12" personnel and the unbalanced line. I am not positive the run/pass splits out of the unbalanced line, but it is almost all run. The Saints know this, so it looks like a smashmouth play in presnap. A little play action, and a great job of holding the edge rush by John Phillips. Once this happens, it is a question of whether Austin can run past 27 Malcolm Jenkins and whether Romo's throw can beat the safety over to the spot. Yes, and yes. Touchdown. This play call only works on 1st and 10, and this is a perfect idea of how the running game sets up the pass because you must respect 1st and 10 as a defense. They did, and the Cowboys unleashed one on them.

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The Play:3Q - 3/5/D31 - Pass to Austin for 13 yards "S12"

What Happened: Again, a sliding protection scheme, that is all about just getting everyone to go to the offensive right and then at the same time the QB comes back left with his throw to receivers that also are cutting back to the left. This works very well in man coverage, and from the End Zone cameras (and by the way, full compliments to the NFL Network for all of these nice end zone views to really break these plays down) you can see that Ogletree is even more open, and if Romo sees/trusts him on this play, there may be a Touchdown available. Instead, they take 13 yards to Austin and keep the drive alive. Also, please notice John Phillips and his odd technique of turning his back to the pass rusher a bit and boxing him out like they are fighting for a rebound in basketball. Whatever works, I guess. Another play that many QB's can't run, but Romo is athletic enough to buy another second.

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The Play: 3Q - 1/10/D44 - Run Feliz 9 yards "22"

What Happened: You have seen this play on Football 301 all season, "22" personnel, Power play to the right where Witten and Leonard Davis are the big blockers to open up an easy 9 yards on 1st down. The Cowboys true go-to move. But, what makes this a play you will want to review again and again has to be the Leonard Davis block on Jonathan Vilma. Vilma is one heck of a LB, but he is only flesh and bones, and when Bigg gets around the corner with a head of steam, Vilma is tossed a good 3 yards in the air. Bigg has not been what I had hoped this season, but like Larry Allen, even when he is not awesome, he is still pretty impressive in certain spots.

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The Play: 3Q - 3/1/O6 - Barber 4 yards to O2 "22"

What Happened: This play, short yardage down by the goal-line, is meant to merely remind us of how San Diego should have gone. Now, maybe, a week of ridicule and criticism inspired everyone to push a bit harder this week, but this is what you do on 3rd and 1. 22 personnel, Davis, Gurode pushing forward! Barber sees one guy he must take on (42 Sharper) and he runs him forward a few yards. Where was this last week? 10 in the box? Doesn't matter when you only need a yard. Well done, but where was that?

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The Play: 4Q - 3/7/D23 - 32 yard pass to Austin "S11"

What Happened: I suggest to you that if the Cowboys don't convert this 3rd and 7, the Cowboys do not win. 6:30 to go, clinging to a 7 point lead, and the Superdome is going bananas. This is the play that may have turned the season. Of course, Folk missed the eventual chippy, but, still here is the play. Millen says the Saints called off the blitz, but I still see 6 Saints trying to get to Romo so that is a blitz. Austin demonstrates the fear that he has put in the league with the cushion he is given, and it is an easy 1st down, but because of the throw and the effor by Patrick Crayton it turns into 32 yards. Austin is so fast going across the field and this is what you must make happen to win in this league. Money down, easy conversion. If you were to list the Top 5 most important offensive plays of 2009, how many are Romo to Austin? 4? And the best news is that they hook up on the road constantly: KC, Philly, New Orleans.

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Target Distribution and Sack studies will be in another entry today. Stay tuned for that.
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Past Episodes:

Week 14 - San Diego Chargers
Week 13 - New York Giants
Week 12 - Oakland Raiders
Week 11 - Washington Redskins
Week 10 - Green Bay Packers
Week 9 - Philadelphia Eagles
Week 8 - Seattle Seahawks
Week 7 - Atlanta Falcons
Week 5 - Kansas City
Week 4 - Denver
Week 3 – Carolina
Week 2 - New York Giants
Week 1 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Garrett '08

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Week 15

2009-12-21T08:11:00.007-06:00

The Best Day of the Dallas Cowboys Year? Quite Possible. Let's check out the target distribution charts and play the sack blame game for the trip to New Orleans.

Target Distribution:

Targets - Week 15 at New Orleans

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	13	7	139	4/1/0
Witten	8	5	44	1/0/0
Phillips	3	3	40	2/0/0
Williams	3	1	14	1/0/0
Ogletree	2	2	23	1/0/0
Jones	2	1	10	1/0/0
Crayton	1	1	25	1/0/0
Barber	1	1	11	1/0/0
Hurd	1	1	6	0/0/0
Totals	34	22	312	12/1/0

Table Tutorial

If you have been a starter for 10 games, and 5 of them were for over 100 yards, 10 different games this season you have scored touchdowns, and you broke 1100 yards with 2 weeks to play, you might be a star WR on this team. Miles Austin has broken out like you would expect a #1 pick who has a $45 million dollar contract to do. Sorry, Roy Williams, but 1 100 yard game and less than 600 yards doesn't quite impress us that much.

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	110	81	74%	837	39/1/3
Austin	106	65	61%	1138	32/11/2
Williams	81	37	46%	592	21/6/0
Crayton	58	33	57%	507	16/4/1
Barber	27	21	77%	178	7/0/0
Bennett	27	15	55%	159	8/0/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Jones	15	12	80%	82	4/0/0
Hurd	11	7	64%	132	3/1/1
Phillips	7	4	57%	48	2/0/0
Ogletree	6	6	100%	81	4/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Totals	473	298	63%	3886	150/23/7

Table Tutorial

It seemed almost impossible early in the season, but by the end of the season, it is likely that Miles Austin will have more targets than Jason Witten. What a year. And, at what point do we start to look at the Ogletree catch percentage (100%) and begin to read meaning into it? And I believe that pass to Hurd in the 4th Quarter was the first ball thrown at him since the Seattle game in Week 8! After the first 4 weeks, you could make the case he was a bigger part of the offense than Austin, but that obviously has changed.

3rd Down Target Distribution:

3RD Down Targets - Week 15 - New Orleans

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD
Austin	4	2	45	2/0/0
Williams	3	1	14	1/0/0
Crayton	1	1	25	1/0/0
Witten	1	1	8	0/0/0
Totals	9	5	92	4/0/0

Table Tutorial

Almost 100 yards of passing on 3rd Down alone is pretty strong on the road. It is still quite obvious on 3rd Down, Witten is not as big a player as he was. He is staying in to block more and when he goes out, you can count on the opposition staying on top of him.

3rd Down Targets - Season Totals

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	29	20	69%	174	11/1/0
Austin	27	15	56%	261	9/2/0
Williams	26	9	35%	151	8/0/0
Crayton	18	11	61%	129	9/0/1
Choice	10	7	70%	60	3/0/0
Hurd	5	2	40%	63	2/0/0
Bennett	5	1	20%	15	1/0/0
Ogletree	4	4	100%	58	3/0/0
Barber	1	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Jones	1	1	100%	5	0/0/0
Phillips	1	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Totals	128	70	55%	909	46/3/2

Table Tutorial

SACKS

Sack #1 - 1/10/32 - 22 - Smith Sack #1

What Happened: 22 personnel, the Cowboys are going to run that waggle to the right to Witten, but the Saints seem to be sitting on it. Free blocks left, leaving the DE free (by design). We have seen Witten chip on him and then release in Philadelphia, but Witten sees that a chip is not needed since Grant seems to oblige Free to the left. Trouble here, Romo can find nobody open, so he has to get rid of the ball. Free is not great here, but this one is a QB-caused Sack.

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Sack #2 - 3/12/34 - S11 - Vilma Sack

What Happened: Jonathan Vilma gets this sack, but he is just cleaning up the mess. The sack happens because, as Millen points out, there aren't great options down the field - but more importantly because Andre Gurode is beaten badly in the middle of the line by 69 Anthony Hargrove. Once Hargrove wins there, Romo must step up and then Vilma cleans him up. Davis, Free, and Choice all won their blocks on the right, but the normally dependable center caused this one.

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Sack #3 - 1/10/28 - 22 - Smith Sack

What Happened: This 3rd and final sack was also in the 2nd Quarter. All 3 sacks were on 3 consecutive pass plays in the 2nd Quarter. So, credit the Saints with figuring something out, and then the Cowboys for making sure it stopped happening for the final 2.5 Quarters of the game. But, this is vintage Flozell on the edge getting beat by Will Smith. Smith is great at doing this, and Flozell hasn't allowed a sack since Green Bay, but he continues to build his lead on the rest of the OL for sacks allowed.

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The Rankings so far in Sacks Allowed among the OL: Adams - 7, Davis - 4, Gurode - 4, Colombo - 2, Free - 2, Kosier - 1.

Week	Opponent	Sack	Blame
Wk 1	Tampa	Barber	Romo awareness
Wk 3	Carolina	Davis	Adams?
Wk 3	Carolina	Beason	Felix/Colombo
Wk 4	Denver	Dumervil	Adams
Wk 4	Denver	Hill	Garrett?
Wk 4	Denver	Williams	Romo
Wk 4	Denver	Dumervil	Anderson
Wk 4	Denver	Holiday	Adams
Wk 5	Kansas City	Gilberry	Davis/Choice
Wk 7	Atlanta	DeCoud	Davis/Choice
Wk 7	Atlanta	Nicholas	Anderson
Wk 8	Seattle	Hawthorne	Colombo
Wk 8	Seattle	Hawthorne	Gurode
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Parker	Witten
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Babin	Kosier
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Jones	???
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Cole	Adams
Wk 10	Green Bay	Collins	Witten
Wk 10	Green Bay	Barnett	Gurode
Wk 10	Green Bay	Matthews	Adams
Wk 10	Green Bay	Barnett	Barber
Wk 10	Green Bay	Woodson	Adams
Wk 11	Washington	Griffin	Davis
Wk 12	Oakland	Scott	Davis
Wk 12	Oakland	Scott	Free
Wk 13	New York	Rouse	Gurode
Wk 13	New York	Sintim	Romo/Garrett
Wk 14	San Diego	Siler	Free
Wk 15	New Orleans	Smith	Romo
Wk 15	New Orleans	Vilma	Gurode
Wk 15	New Orleans	Smith	Adams

Table Tutorial

Archives:

Sacks and Targets - San Diego

Sacks and Targets - New York

Sacks and Targets - Oakland

Sacks and Targets - Washington

Sacks and Targets - Green Bay

Sacks and Targets - Philadelphia

Sacks and Targets - Seattle

Sacks and Targets - Atlanta

Sacks and Targets - Kansas City

Before Kansas City, the Sacks and Targets were part of the Football 301 posts.

The Morning After: Cowboys 24, Saints 17

2009-12-20T07:32:00.005-06:00

Raise your hand if you understand pro football. I am obsessed with this sport. There is nothing I spend more time thinking about and reading about and studying than the NFL. But, I sure don't understand it. Except, I do understand one important element about my lack of understanding: You can never account for the unaccountable. Said another way: Last night is why it is not smart to gamble on "sure things".

The Cowboys pulled the unthinkable last night in New Orleans with their performance that surely was one of the best games of football any of them had ever played. Once in a while, with all of the chips down, they find what they were looking for, and it so happened to be with the entire football world watching (provided they had the NFL Network) on this Saturday night in December (of all months).

On one hand, you have to be very pleased for these guys who spend a lot of time answering why they are not up to the challenge of winning important games such as these. On the other hand, you wonder how this is going to feel if they lose to Washington next week. But, that can wait for 8 days. This was a thing of beauty.

The offense made all the sense in the world. And it made all the sense in the world because the offensive line held up its end of the bargin, because Jason Garrett seemed to pull the puppet strings with great precision, and because your QB was the perfect maestro of the proceedings.

Tony Romo has not been the focal point of too many of these "Morning After" columns for a few reasons, but I think this may be the perfect day to spend a moment or two on the leader of this offense. Nobody is more scrutinized nationally than Tony Romo - whether it is appropriate or not never seems to matter. He had painted a large target on his chest long ago, and has been declared dead quite a few times by the experts.

All along, he has just chipped away at the mountain before him, and I dare say his QB work this season may be his finest year yet. Nobody is willing to admit that he isn't the problem, it seems, but to play the Giants-Chargers-Saints trio in succession in December, and emerge on the other side without one single giveaway (fumble or interception), 6 TD's, and a QB Rating of 109.7 is remarkable. They have lost 2 of those 3 games, so there is still that thread of blame that can be taken back to the QB because that is how we discuss this game. But, in December, Romo has been nearly flawless with absurd pressure and scrutiny aimed at his head. Put it another way: By George, I think he's got it.

And here is the good news: It is still a secret. Romo, it would seem, can still sneak up on the league because some have spent so long claiming he is the problem that they will not concede that point until he has a trophy in his hand. And we all know that is a long trip from here. But, in a 2009 where he had to prove he wasn't the problem, I think most fair observers would realize that the Cowboys have a useful Quarterback - maybe not a perfect one, but one who is very good.

Beyond Romo, there are so many others with their fingerprints on this unlikely win. As Junior Miller said last night, this may be Wade's signature defensive win. I argued that the Green Bay win in 2007 qualifies as well, but in fairness to Craig, that Green Bay team was not the juggarnaut the Saints are, and were not held to 3 points through 3 Quarters on their home field. The defense played very well, holding the Saints to just 1 3rd Down conversion - which occured in the final minute of the game. The Saints set the industry standard on 3rd Down conversions, but on this one night, they could not move the chains on the money down.

And then there is everyone's quiet hero, DeMarcus Ware. There are a number of reasons to look at his performance last night and marvel. One, of course, is that we feared for his physical well-being on Sunday evening at Cowboys Stadium when they are unscrewing his facemask from his helmet and strapping him onto a stretcher. Late in the day yesterday, there were still many reports circulating that he would not be able to play at all. Then, for him to play as well as he did - with a sack and fumble to end the final Saints' drive of the 1st half, and then another sack and fumble to end the final Saints' drive of the game - was the stuff of legends. The Cowboys could have very well crumbled under the pressure in that 4th Quarter - but #94 would not be denied. Joined by #93, Anthony Spencer, the Cowboys pass rush finally made sense for a night. It was like Ware and Ellis used to be. A speed LB who can not be blocked for long on each flank. Was it just a 1-night mirage?

The Cowboys' best players were their best players. They stepped up an emerged with a team victory that could certainly take this team to a new level. But, because of how this league and this team works, we are all wondering if we should read too much meaning into this game. Did the QB break through? Did the coach? Did the team? It all depends on where they go next.

But, for one night, they played like they could win a Super Bowl. I just don't understand the NFL sometimes.

Other observations from the night that ended the New Orleans quest for perfection:

* I suppose I should not allow this Nick Folk elephant in the room go on any longer before we address it. Look, I am all for trying to let a guy break out of his slump before we knee jerk and go to "Kickers-R-Us" for another one, but it is time. There is too much riding on everything this team does to allow one guy to get his head screwed back on. He is a kicker. He must make kicks. To miss that 24-yard Field Goal in that situation is an absolute fireable offense. He nearly cost you the football game - which in turn would have cost many men their jobs. I am sure he is a nice guy, and I hope his career can continue somewhere else, but like a group of athletes in our lifetime, it appears his head is not allowing his foot to do its job. That footage the NFL Network presented showing his pregame warm-ups was quite revealing. And then, on cue, he missed what amounts to an extra point. The Cowboys must get a kicker before Washington. And they are darn lucky that their refusal to address this issue sooner did not cost them another game.

* Mr Austin, your contract is ready. What a stud. 1100 Yards and counting. Was Terrell better than this? And, evidently, the Cowboys' offense also took note as we did Friday that the deep ball is but a faded memory. Brilliant double move off play action on the first drive of the game resulted in a 49-yard bomb to signal the attack. A thing of beauty.

* Does anyone know why the Cowboys would call timeout after Patrick Crayton's big 25-yard catch at the end of the 1st Quarter? I was thoroughly confused as the Saints were given time to review every replay possible during that timeout and decide if they should use a review on that 3rd and 8. Luckily, it held up, but I found that most curious. Let's not act like last night was not without brain freezes, as that decision, the 12-men in the huddle, the play where Barber forgot he was supposed to get the ball, the Flozell facemask, and a few others that we would all be pointing to if the Cowboys did not close the deal. But, they did, so they are but details in a notebook.

* Speaking of the review impacting the game, I was interested in what effect the review of the Spencer hit on Brees with :18 to go in the game had on the next play. If you recall, the Cowboys were rushing Brees on that final drive for 11 consecutive plays. Since they were in the no-huddle, you could make the case that the longer the drive goes on, the more depleted the energy becomes for the pass rushers. But, when they were reviewing the question of whether Brees' arm was going forward, DeMarcus and friends are catching their breath on the sideline. On the very next play, Ware beats Jermon Bushrod round the corner again and seals the game. It might have all happened the exact same way without the break, but my theory is that it helped Ware.

* I would never question the offensive genius of Sean Payton, but David Thomas gets 10 targets? He wasn't bad, but I think I have to adjust my gameplan when I find out my starter (Jeremy Shockey) can't play. The goal was obviously to isolate the Cowboys LBs in space (Carpenter, Brooking, James) and he was willing to work his back-up TE all night to do so. If I am the Cowboys, I am comfortable with Thomas trying to beat me.

* Every week, Garrett rolls out a new wrinkle. I really enjoy trying to predict what it might be, but this week, it was the mutiple looks with Kevin Ogletree. His 2catches were helpful, but I really think they were trying to spring him for a deep TD early in the 3rd Quarter and Romo just didn't have enough time to hit him so he checked down to Austin (who dropped the pass). Even Sam Hurd made a rare appearance late.

* We had to like the way the ball was run in New Orleans, too. They really set the tone and were physical throughout. Marion ran over Darren Sharper in short yardage, showing us that he is not the guy we saw at the goal-line against the Chargers. Felix showed bursts as well in certain situations and always looks like he is about to break one. I thought Bigg Davis played one of his better games of the recent stretch.

* Flozell looks very old. I think Left Tackle better be looked at very closely this offseason. And no, I don't think Leonard Davis is the answer, nor Doug Free.

* If there has been one guy who has certainly showed his quality as this season has gone along, it would be Mike Jenkins. But, if there have been 2 guys, we should add Anthony Spencer. I needed him to bust out, and while it might have taken him until nearly Thanksgiving, I now see his ability each week. He is not just "some guy" opposite DeMarcus. He looks to be very imposing, and difficult to deal with. That sequence where he had a sack disallowed by a Scandrick penalty, only to get one on the very next play was lovely. Of course, sacks are easier to get when you are not blocked.

* 2 potential plays of the game happened on 3rd downs in the 4th Quarter for the offense: #1, 3/4 at the 46, Romo puts one right on Roy Williams in stride which would keep the drive alive - but he drops it. #2, 3/7 at the 23, Romo again finds Austin in the face of a blitz and Austin sprints for 32 more and seemed to seal the game (thanks, Folk). But, overall, the telling stat for the Cowboys offense seems to be 3rd Downs. In Philly and in New Orleans, Romo and the offense made those plays. Against the Giants and Chargers, not so much. Must make the plays in the money scenarios.

* Today,my friend, Doug, notes, the Cowboys world must cheer for the Steelers, 49ers, and Redskins? Strange bedfellows for sure.

So, tell me, was this the aberration? Or is this the start of a 3 game winning streak heading into the playoffs with a division crown on their head and a home playoff game on tap? I wish I had an idea one way or the other. The good news is this thing is still now very much alive. The bad news is that the 2008 Cowboys won their 14th game against a top NFC foe, only to hit the wall in a ball of flames in games #15 and #16.

Is 2009 different? Only the final 2 weeks will tell us.

Game Plan Friday: New Orleans Saints

2009-12-18T08:01:00.001-06:00

I certainly attempt to avoid hyperbole when it comes to my Cowboys writing, but evidently I engaged in some last week. Here was a paragraph from my overview of the San Diego game, #13 of the 2009 season:

If you want to go to the Playoffs. If you want to quiet the critics. If you have any plans of winning your division. If you don't want another season to crater. If you want your new stadium to appear difficult to play in. If you want opponents to take you serious....

Need to Win.

The truth is, I was only partly correct. They lost, of course, and despite that fact and the fact that they could very likely lose again in a day's time, they are still in this race. I was partly correct because any chance they had at a division title reduced dramatically, and now the most likely berth in the playoffs appears to be the #6 seed out of 6. But, I was incorrect if you consider the object of the game to play in the playoffs this year and ultimately do away with that playoff drought.

You see, my trusty partner on the air, Mr. Dan McDowell, bristles at my suggestion that this game is a "must win" game like I did against San Diego. If it is a must-win game, then how are the Cowboys still in this with 3 to play? Doesn't "must" suggest that losing is not an option? And, as Duane Thomas once said about the Super Bowl, "If it's the ultimate game, how come they're playing it again next year?"

So, where does that leave us?

Week	Dallas	New York	Philly	GB
-	8-5	7-6	9-4	9-4
15	@ NO	@ WAS	SF	@ PIT
16	@ WAS	CAR	DEN	SEA
17	PHI	@ MIN	@ DAL	@ ARZ

Table Tutorial

It leaves us with the Cowboys controlling their own playoff destiny for the time being. If they win their games, they are in. But, if they go 2-1 for the final 3, or, gulp, 1-2, they will need help. Remember, they lose a tie-breaker to the Giants (season sweep) and the Packers (head-to-head), so being even doesn't help them.

The opponent is a juggarnaut of epic proportions. The Saints have scored an insane 466 points in their 13 games (35.8 per game). To put this in perspective, the next several teams in scoring are Minnesota (389), Philadelphia (372), San Diego (362), and Indianapolis (359). That is right, the Saints have scored 77 more points or, 11 more touchdowns, than any team in football. And, their points for/point against differential is a crazy +192. Total domination.

National Football Post told us in August that the Saints do not have exceptional talent around the field:

New Orleans —

BLUE CHIP: QB, Brees; ILB, Vilma.

ALMOST BLUE: WR, Colston; WR, Moore.

These 2 teams have played a combined 26 games this year and have been favored in 25 of them. The Saints have never been an underdog in their 13 games, and the Cowboys have been favored by Vegas in 12 of their games (3 point dogs at Philadelphia). But, this week, the Cowboys will be heavy dogs for the first time in a real long time. In fact, I cannot recall this city seeming to accept defeat prior to the game in years. But, playing this team in this stadium is an extremely tall order.

ON OFFENSE: 895 yards of Total offense in 2 games and you lose them both? I would love to see a statistic on how many teams have done that this season. You would love to have more to show for your 900 yards, but we all know how the goal-line stand could possibly go down as the defining moment of the 2009 season.

As I look at the Cowboys offense, I continue to see some very impressive numbers that indicate this is, in fact, a good offense. It can be so much better, but overall, the tools are there to build something impressive. Trouble is, time is running out, and the Cowboys are starting to look like a team that has nice parts, but the sum total is less than what we had hoped.

I was trying to figure out what I don't like about this offense the other day, and I formed a premise then wondered if it held water. I don't think the Cowboys ever throw the ball down field anymore. For reasons I am not sure I grasp, I don't think Tony Romo throws the ball over the top like he did in the days of Terrell Owens and the 2007 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, Romo has plenty of 40+ yard passes, but is it from short plays that become long after the catch? Who do you think has more yards after the catch between Drew Brees and Romo? That would be Tony Romo.

But, "yards at the catch" measures passes length - and Romo rates #11 in the league, Brees is at #1. Brees throws the ball down the field. Romo doesn't seem to. So, I asked the boys at Football Outsiders this question: Does Romo throw the ball down the field like he once did?

The answer?

Romo's percentage of deep passes has dropped this season but not by much.

2007: 20% 16+ yards, including 8% 26+ yards in the air
2008: 19% 16+ yards, including 7% 26+ yards in the air
2009: 16% 16+ yards, including 5% 26+ yards in the air

That's it? From the high-flying days of 2007 until now, His deep passes are down only 3% and his medium throws are down 4%? Theories are so much better when you don't have to prove it. But, I sure can't remember the Romo deep ball much in the last 2 months, can you?

OFFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - Sustain Your Drives, Hold Serve - Playing the Saints is very much like a tennis match. You are going to have a chance if you can get to the final-set tiebreaker. The trouble is, to get there, you must be able to keep up with the Saints. Sadly, this was impossible for Tom Brady and his band of weapons a few weeks back. It causes coaches to panic and go for it on 4th Down because they know that if they settle for 3, the Saints will get a working margin. If that happens, they unleash the blitz, and the score gets worse. You must sustain drives and roll clock with a power running posture. We know they can do it, but will they? Will they keep their heads? And, unlike last road game, will they have an offensive line that allows you do so?

2) - Composed Romo vs. The Superdome - Beware the blitz of the Saints, and beware the urge in the back of your head to try to keep up with Brees and his offense. Play within yourself and you have a chance. But, also be opportunistic. If you are unsure about one element of Romo's efficient 2009, it would be this: Is he pushing the ball down the field enough, or is he being too careful with the ball? I hate to say it, because being too careful is better than not careful enough, but to be elite, your QB has to be willing to occasionally fit the ball in tight spaces. Also, let's not forget how loud and intimidating the Superdome can be. A truly college atmosphere in the pros, and you must stay composed and not get flustered when things go in the wrong direction. This is a great test for Romo.

3) - Protect the QB, Win the Line of Scrimmage - I know I harp about this on a weekly basis, but this team needs better, consistent efforts from the OL in December. They lose this time of year for many reasons, but if you asked me to boil it down to the main culprit, I would circle a OL that dissolves a bit as the year goes on. For the most part, they were reasonable against the Chargers, but on the goal-line stand, the game was lost because the OL did not give Marion Barber much to work with. It is imperative that this offensive line gets after the Saints DL and protects the flanks against the solid Saints edge pass rush, and when it is time to get a yard, they need to move the pile.

4) - Touchdowns, Not Field Goals - This fits right with the theme of not having a dependable kicker, right? They may need Nick Folk to make a kick, but I suspect if they call on him much, they won't have a great chance to win. The Cowboys have been in the Red Zone 39 times this season (which sounds impressive until you see New Orleans has been in there 63 times) and has scored 20 TDs. That means 19 times, they have settled. Settled for FGs or less. That won't cut it on Sunday. Must get 7 every time you drive down there and get a chance. Must convert into 7.

ON DEFENSE: I would love to dazzle you with all of the amazing stats about the New Orleans Saints. They are so far ahead of the curve on every offensive metric that it is nearly unfair. To me, it all comes back to your QB, and Brees is an amazing story from every angle. When he signed from San Diego, he was coming off a big shoulder injury, and the Saints were trying to bounce back from the crazy season of Katrina. Sean Payton took a job that nobody seemed to want, and Brees signed. Since then, they have gone on quite a tear of offensive genius that we can compare to the greatest offensive systems of all-time. We can debate whether you would rather have the 1998 Vikings, the 2001 Rams, or the 2007 Patroits offense rather than the Saints (why did none of those teams win the Super Bowl those years?), but we cannot dispute that the Saints put you in a very uncomfortable position when you play their offense - you must score 7 points everytime you get the ball, or you lose sight of them.

We saw the Patriots try some awfully exotic schemes a few Mondays ago, but Brees surgically dismantled them with his huge assortment of weapons. And, for the most part, it all comes out of Shotgun and most of it with the pass or runs from a pass formation. It is too 1-dimensional and too predictable, but it doesn't matter. They are that good at what they do.

So, if you are Wade Phillips, do you rush the QB with risky blitzes or drop into coverage? We know we cannot trust the Cowboys to get there with 4, so the only option is to flood the zones with defenders. Trouble there is that Brees is as accurate a passer as there is in football. No pass rush = no chance in my estimation. Your only chance is the unpredictable blitz packages. 1st and 10 corner blitzes are just crazy enough to have a chance. But, traditional situations are picked apart by Brees/Payton.

DEFENSIVE OBJECTIVES:

1) - Pass Rush - Remember the Cowboys pass rush? Well, it has betrayed them down the stretch. 1 sack against the Redskins. 1 sack at New York. 1 sack against the Chargers. 3 1-sack performances in your last 4 games? That is quite disappointing, and now the prospect of not having DeMarcus Ware at full strength does not help matters. I don't dispute this idea that Anthony Spencer is having a nice year, but the fact that Marcus Spears has no sacks since Atlanta, Jay Ratliff hasn't had a sack since Philadelphia, Keith Brooking has 1 sack since Seattle, and Bradie James has 1 sack all year (at Denver). The usual suspects are not getting there, and you can certainly imagine the implications of giving Brees all day.

2) - Take the Ball Away - Since the Eagles game, the Cowboys have played the Packers, Redskins, Raiders, Giants, and Chargers. In those 5 games, the Boys have multiple takeaways in just 1 game (Giants). This is a game where takeaways could be the one and only way to get the Cowboys a win. Big plays are the great equalizer, and for the Cowboys to have a chance, they must turn the ball over. Trouble is this: In his last 4 games, Brees has thrown 13 Touchdowns and 1 interception. Ouch.

3) - Newman and Jenkins must bounce Back - Sorry, but that was not good enough against San Diego. We can discuss who was worse in the game, but the fact is that Phil Rivers offered no respect to the corners of the Dallas Cowboys. And they showed unworthy of big respect. The Chargers picked on whoever they wanted with big days for Vincent Jackson and friends, especially on 3rd down. 3rd down is not exactly a tough spot for the Saints, but Jenkins and Newman (and Scandrick) must stay on top of Colsten, Moore, Henderson, and Meachem.

4) - Tackling must be true - Understand this: The Saints are going to get done what they normally get done. There will be big plays and huge yardage totals. I am not sure there is a recipe for an alternative. But, there will be moments where the game can change on a tackle or a miss. If the Cowboys blow tackles in the open field, the Saints take those for 50 yard Touchdowns. New Orleans has been the master of 3rd Down in this latest stretch, and if you can't tackle, you can't get off the field. And, if you can't do that, you can't win. Must wrap up and bring down.

SUMMARY: If there was one game on the schedule when it was released in April that I didn't consider a win as much of a possibility, it is this game. I didn't know the Saints would be 13-0, but I knew they would be very good, and would present a number of match-up issues with the Cowboys secondary. No pass rush, no secondary confidence, and what appears right now to be a Cowboys team that is so terrified of a collapse that they can not do anything but collapse. This team needs a confidence transplant, and for the life of me, I don't see how they get a win here. If they do get the unlikely win, it could change the direction of this franchise on a dime, but after these last 2 weeks, I would be a fool to trust them again. Not going to happen.

Saints 37, Cowboys 27

Past Issues:

San Diego Chargers Game Plan

New York Giants Game Plan

Oakland Raiders Game Plan

Washington Redskins Game Plan

Green Bay Packers Game Plan

Eagles Game Plan

Seattle Seahawks Game Plan

Atlanta Falcons Game Plan

Kansas City Game Plan

Denver Game Plan

Carolina Game Plan

Giants Game Plan

Tampa Bay Game Plan

Merry Christmas From Me

2009-12-17T07:35:00.002-06:00

At one point, over at Inside Corner (RIP), I spent Thursdays "Analyzing the Enemy" and that has been somewhat tabled for now. I could give you a long list of explanations, but the truth is that I have to prioritize a bit better this time of year, and when I have to choose 2 of the following 3 (Mavs Game, Stars Game, Cowboys Blog) on a Wednesday night, I still have to pick the two that most affect the radio show and the paying gigs in my life. So, since this is a charitable venture, the Cowboys Blog suffers.

With Christmas coming (last radio show today) and travels that go with it, I will assure you that Monday (The Morning After), Tuesday (Football 301), and Friday (Game Plan), will always appear even when I am not in town. Otherwise, though, the next week or two will not have too much on Wednesday or Thursday (aside from the statistical projects).

So, my upcoming holiday schedule on this blog:

Fri, 12/18: Saints Game Plan
Sun, 12/20: The Morning After Saints v Cowboys
Mon, 12/21: Football 301
Fri, 12/25: Redskins Game Plan
Mon, 12/28: The Morning After Redskins v Cowboys
Tue, 12/29: Football 301
Fri, 1/1: Eagles Game Plan
Mon, 1/4: The Morning After Eagles v Cowboys
Tue, 1/5: Football 301

Oh, What a Day

Drive Of The Week, Part II

2009-12-17T03:07:00.001-06:00

On the previous post, I forgot to mention that the final pass detailed did not end the drive. Cincinnati screwed around with some runs from shotgun at the one-yard line using the more mobile Zach Collaros at quarterback before punching it in on the third try. It seemed like one of those things I'd rather gloss over than spend 20 minutes on three failed running plays from the one.

This play is just another example of playing off the four verticals. From the camera angles, you can't really see the receivers' routes downfield, you only see that the receiver who eventually caught the ball was running a comeback. The route plays off of the corner who is worried about defending deep and not falling for any double moves, so he doesn't change direction quickly enough. That creates the separation needed for the easy completion. Pittsburgh has an excellent defensive line. They lead the country in sacks despite showing a strong preference to only rush with their front four. It's very impressive stuff, and I was surprised they did not have more of an impact on these plays. It's not like Cincinnati was going with too many short, quick passes. The one thing Cincinnati have going for it both on this play and on this drive was Pike's movement in the pocket. The Panthers' line gets one rusher totally free and others giving their man all they can handle, but Pike moves up and finds room to throw.

This seems like some kind of zone coverage, I think. When the outside receiver to the left comes in, he draws the attention of the linebacker playing that zone, and he is able to draw him out of his designated area when he cuts back outside. Meanwhile, the corner on the outside doesn't really react to the outside receiver and instead gets deep, trying to keep that slot receiver in front of him. He achieves that but is playing too loose to contest the pass to the slot receiver. The corner makes the tackle but only after the receiver has made the catch and picked up 10 yards.

Marty Gilyard, the outside receiver on the left running deep, is probably supposed to just run deep on this play. Pitt rushes only three but because their defensive linemen are so awesome (on this play it is defensive end Jabaal Sheard who beats his man), Pike is forced to scramble pretty early. When Gilyard looks back to see if the ball is coming his way, he sees Pike in trouble and abandons his route to come back to his quarterback. This not only brings him closer to Pike, making for a manageable throw under duress, it also shakes the men defending him. That's key, because with the pressure on Pike, he is not able to get a high degree of accuracy on the throw. Gilyard is so open it doesn't matter, and they gain 15 yards on a busted play.
This play was probably the most meaningful to me. Pike missed a number of games this year and had a similar amount of playing time last year, yet he and Gilyard still were able to work in concert in a high-pressure game situation like this. As someone who is desperately searching for indications that this is a well-coached team, that's a nice sign. I have to think for them to react so successfully, they must have been prepared well for all situations.

Cincinnati again goes with four receivers to one side and one receiver to the other. Pittsburgh counters with similar coverage and gets a similar result. The single deep safety is playing too in to the middle to help out on the outside, and the receiver beats the corner one-on-one for a long gain and a touchdown. The corner is playing very close up on the receiver from the snap, and when the receiver just runs straight downfield. The corner is losing the race more and more as the play goes on, and he finally just falls down right before the pass gets there. When he falls down, he's not in good position anyways. He probably fell down from trying to make some effort to get back into the play. The receiver is then open, and he catches the touchdown.
It's notable that Cincinnati's two big plays both came from this receiver in this formation. I think this has both to do with the formation and with decisions made by the defense. Pike is probably looking to the one receiver side for his read. If that receiver is one-on-one with just that one deep safety, he throws it to him. If he is drawing more than one defender, then he finds the uncovered receiver on the other side. That's the part dictated by the defense. But then again, the offensive formation more or less dictates to the defense. Most teams will respond to that formation with a single deep safety. So the quarterback is not determined to go to the single receiver, but the formation dictates that it's going to be the smart place to go a lot of the time.
I found it interesting that they never once ran an actual four verticals play. I wonder if they did at all in this game. I guess you wouldn't have to and could still be effective: the defense might know one or more receiver is going to break their route off somehow, but they don't know which one(s). I do wonder how often they run the base play. Did they run it in every game this year? On just a surface level, it seems weird.
On these two possessions, Tony Pike went 9-for-9 for 129 yards. It's also notable that this came after Cincinnati struggled as they did in the first half. It shows Kelly and his staff can make adjustments in the game, something a lot of Notre Dame fans felt Charlie Weis did not do quickly enough.
I don't think anything on this film will be the definitive world on whether or not Kelly is successful at Notre Dame, but there certainly weren't any bad signs. A lot of the yards gained here can be attributed to good scheme. They really didn't ask too much of any of the players for the most part; the play design put them in a position to succeed. Which isn't anything to take away from the players themselves: Gilyard especially did plenty to show this success comes from superior play as well.
Anyways, for someone looking to watch this and convince himself that national championships are mere months away, there's something in this film if you want it to be there.

Drive Of The Week, featuring TC

2009-12-16T03:53:00.013-06:00

For these posts, I try to cover football things that I think my audience will have interest. I have an increasing suspicion that I am the only person who reads these posts (and let’s be honest: I’m just skimming to check for mistakes), so this week, we’ll focus on the Cincinnati Bearcats’ final two drives that brought them the win against Pittsburgh. Because I love Notre Dame and want to be familiar with what former Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly likes to do. That said, it’s not like there’s nothing here for you. Cincinnati is a traditional non-factor who has been achieving big success the last few years, especially at the quarterback position. Figuring out how that happens is always interesting to me. So hey, you might like this. I guess.

The foundation of my knowledge about Kelly comes from this super-informative article from Smart Football’s Chris Brown. It’s totally worth reading the whole thing, but just to give you the basics, Cincinnati’s running is built around regular stuff adapted to spread shotgun formations (kind of like Oklahoma does, I think), not so much the zone-read type of stuff. In the passing game, everything is kind of built around the four verticals play we’ve seen a number of times in going through NFL plays. Chris calls this “vertical stems.” For the most part, every play starts out looking like four verticals. All of the receivers run straight down the field, and it’s only after that do they make breaks. One of the advantages is that the secondary has no clues as to what’s coming until the play has been going for awhile. Often, they’re out of their backpedal and running with the receivers when they have to change direction, which is more difficult to do.

This opening play is the only running play in this set. It’s a power run, like the Cowboys and every other team in football run, with a guard pulling. Given where the run is going, the four key players to block are the defensive end and defensive tackle to that left side, and the two linebackers on the field. The pulling right guard and left tackle get out and block the linebackers, leaving the left guard and tight end to handle the defensive linemen. Of these blocks, the tight end taking on a defensive end stands out to me as the big one. That tight end holds his block long enough for the run to get by him, and it’s only after eight yards that the defensive end is able to peel off and chase the play down from behind.

On the left side of this play, a cornerback lines up over each receiver with a safety covering that side. Both the safety and the nickel corner seem concerned primarily with taking away the inside. The outside receiver just runs upfield to clear out his cornerback so when the slot receiver makes his cut, there is no one close to him. It seems like the defense was placing a pretty heavy bet that the routes would be going to the inside. Maybe they thought they had something based on the film or plays earlier in the game, but they were wrong, and it led to very easy yards. Further, the receiver was hit by the safety once he was already out of bounds, so the play ended up gaining 29 yards.

In the article linked above, Brown says Cincinnati doesn't use much zone-read-ish kind of stuff, but I think this play is an exception. I think what's going on here is from an empty backfield, a slot receiver drops back into a pitch relationship with the quarterback while the tight end loops behind the line to come to the other side of the quarterback. That creates a triple-option of sorts: the quarterback can keep it, pitch it back to the receiver or shovel it ahead to the tight end. And another thing confirms that this is definitely a read/option kind of play: the playside defensive end is unblocked. On this play, the receiver dropping back actually falls down, so I'm partly just guessing he was there to take a pitch (though it looks like a really strong possibility before he falls), so when the defensive end closes in, Pike pitches it past him to the tight end. With the defensive end taking himself out of the play, the key defenders in position to cause immediate problems are the right defensive tackle and the two linebackers on the field. The right guard takes care of the defensive tackle by himself. The right tackle, who is free after not blocking the defensive end, blocks one of the linebackers quite well. The other linebacker reacts like he is in man coverage on the slot receiver who drops back for the pitch: he immediately runs toward the receiver when he drops back, so when the receiver ends up stumbling, the linebacker is well out of position to chase down the play. The nickel corner on the other side of the play does a nice job diagnosing the play after being victimized on the previous play. The pulling guard has a chance to block him, but he has gone too far upfield, outpacing the ball-carrier. That means he has to change directions to come back and get a block on a cornerback. The corner is far too quick to let a lineman pull that off, and he cuts inside of him to make the tackle after a seven-yard gain.

This is a pretty simple counter off of the four verticals play. Everyone looks like they're running a 'Go,' causing the secondary to retreat. Then a receiver in the slot stops suddenly and turns back to the quarterback. If Pike can hit the receiver before the defense has a chance to react, there are easy yards to be had, and he does just that.

This formation is kind of a Kelly signature, I think. What happens here is the formation more or less demands that there be only one safety deep, otherwise you're badly undermanned on the four-receiver side. Moreover, that deep safety keeps to the middle at best. More likely, he shades to the four-receiver side. What he definitely doesn't do is pay much attention to the lone receiver on the left. So the left receiver is running deep against single-coverage, and on this play, he wins that match. There are two keys to the receivers' success over the corner: the receiver looks back and tracks the ball while the corner doesn't, and the ball is placed in the perfect spot, high and wide. That lets the receiver stop and jump to go and get the ball (a set of highlights for this game is available here, and I really suggest going to 7:08 to see this catch. It's really awesome.)

That's the first drive to look at, the one that tied the game in the fourth quarter. I think Brown's points were pretty spot on, the play often did look like four verticals four steps in before breaking off to something else to make for open spaces and easy throws. It's late tonight, so tomorrow we'll look at the game-winning drive and see about drawing any more conclusions.

Stat Project Update

2009-12-16T03:26:00.000-06:00

Turnover Battles for the Week

Winner	+/-	Loser
SF	+5	Arz
Ten	+4	STL
Mia	+3	Jac
Phi	+3	NYG
NYJ	+2	TB
NO	+1	ATL
Buf	+1	KC
Bal	+1	Det
GB	E	Chi
Min	E	Cin
Was	E	Oak
Hou	-1	Sea
SD	-1	Dal
Ind	-2	Den
NE	-3	Car
Totals for Week	8-4-3
Totals for Season	133-41, 76%

Table Tutorial

Turnover Season Numbers by Totals

Total	Record	Win %
+6	1-0	100%
+5	3-0	100%
+4	14-0	100%
+3	22-1	96%
+2	35-13	73%
+1	58-27	68%
Totals	133-41	76%

Table Tutorial

100 Yard Rushers

Name	Team	Opp	Yards	W/L
Frank Gore	SF	Arz	167	W
Ray Rice	Bal	Det	166	W
Jamaal Charles	KC	Buf	143	L
Ryan Grant	GB	Chi	137	W
Chris Johnson	Ten	STL	117	W
Ricky Williams	Mia	Jac	108	W
Totals for Week				5-1
Totals for Season				66-30, 69%

Table Tutorial

300 Yard Passers

Name	Team	Opponent	Yards	W/L
Eli Manning	NYG	Phi	391	L
Matt Schaub	Hou	Sea	365	W
Chris Redman	Atl	NO	303	L
Totals for Week				1-2
Totals for Season				55-27, 67%

Table Tutorial

Week 13 Picks

2009-12-16T03:00:00.002-06:00

Every Friday during the 2:00 hour, BaD Radio will make their picks of the week. Whoever gets the fewest correct over the course of the season will wear a nice suit and tie during the entirety of the NFL playoffs. In addition, the loser among Bob, Dan and Donovan will wear the same attire during Super Bowl week in Miami. Picks will be in red.





STANDINGS
Bob	21-18
Dan	16-23
Donovan	15-24
Tom	21-18
Grubes	22-17
Sean	21-18
TCLOTW	6-7

Football 301: Targets and Sacks - Week 14

2009-12-15T14:56:00.001-06:00

Targets and Sacks from a frustrating afternoon at the Death Star vs the Chargers

Target Distribution:

Targets - Week 14 vs San Diego Chargers

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Austin	8	6	71	4/1/0
Williams	8	4	74	3/0/0
Witten	7	4	49	1/0/0
Crayton	3	2	31	1/1/0
Barber	2	2	22	2/0/0
Jones	1	1	2	0/0/0
Phillips	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	30	19	249	11/2/0

Table Tutorial

Reasonable balance, just not enough of it. Patrick Crayton has seen his targets really drop over the last few weeks, but he still is getting in the end zone. Kind of a forgotten man since the game in Green Bay ended. Here are his targets in 2009 by game: 6-7-4-7-8-2-5-4-6-2-1-2-3 - That is 49 targets in the first 9 games, and 8 targets in the last 4.

Season Target Distribution To Date:

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Witten	102	76	75%	793	38/1/3
Austin	93	58	62%	999	28/9/2
Crayton	57	32	56%	482	15/4/1
Williams	78	36	46%	577	20/6/0
Choice	22	15	68%	132	7/0/0
Bennett	27	15	55%	159	8/0/0
Hurd	10	6	60%	125	3/1/1
Barber	26	20	77%	168	6/0/0
Jones	13	11	85%	72	3/0/0
Anderson	3	1	33%	5	0/0/
Ogletree	4	4	100%	58	3/0/0
Phillips	4	2	50%	8	0/0/
Totals	439	276	63%	3574	138/22/7

Table Tutorial

3rd Down Target Distribution:

3RD Down Targets - Week 14 - San Diego

Name	Targets	Catches	Yards	FD/TD
Williams	3	2	33	1/0/0
Witten	2	0	0	0/0/0
Austin	1	0	0	0/0/0
Phillips	1	0	0	0/0/0
Totals	7	2	33	1/0/0

Table Tutorial

The 3rd down passing in the last month has been pretty brutal. There is no way to sugar coat things at all. This includes his 1 4th Down pass, and 2-7 is bad, but his performance was equally bad against Washington a few weeks back. QB rating is awesome, but 1-8 on 3rd down conversions is enough to stop your offense down in its tracks.

3rd Down Targets - Season Totals

Name	Targets	Catches	%	Yards	FD/TD/INT
Crayton	17	10	59%	104	8/0/1
Austin	23	13	57%	216	7/2/0
Witten	28	19	68%	166	11/1/0
Williams	23	8	35%	137	7/0/0
Choice	10	7	70%	60	3/0/0
Hurd	5	2	40%	63	2/0/0
Bennett	5	1	20%	15	1/0/0
Ogletree	4	4	100%	58	3/0/0
Barber	1	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Jones	1	1	100%	5	0/0/0
Phillips	1	0	0%	0	0/0/0
Totals	119	65	55%	817	42/3/2

Table Tutorial

SACKS

Sack - 1/10/20 - S21 - Siler Sack

What Happened: Generally, the rules of the blitz suggest that the QB has to account for the outside blitzer, and get rid of the ball. But, in this particular case, I believe Romo did account for Siler, and had a proper plan to elude him, but because Shawne Merriman beats Doug Free like a rented mule, Romo cannot avoid them both. If Free stays in front of Merriman, then Romo has a fighting chance with Siler. So, as judge and jury, I am giving this to Free.

The Rankings so far in Sacks Allowed among the OL: Adams - 6, Davis - 4, Gurode - 3, Colombo - 2, Free - 2, Kosier - 1.

Week	Opponent	Sack	Blame
Wk 1	Tampa	Barber	Romo awareness
Wk 3	Carolina	Davis	Adams?
Wk 3	Carolina	Beason	Felix/Colombo
Wk 4	Denver	Dumervil	Adams
Wk 4	Denver	Hill	Garrett?
Wk 4	Denver	Williams	Romo
Wk 4	Denver	Dumervil	Anderson
Wk 4	Denver	Holiday	Adams
Wk 5	Kansas City	Gilberry	Davis/Choice
Wk 7	Atlanta	DeCoud	Davis/Choice
Wk 7	Atlanta	Nicholas	Anderson
Wk 8	Seattle	Hawthorne	Colombo
Wk 8	Seattle	Hawthorne	Gurode
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Parker	Witten
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Babin	Kosier
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Jones	???
Wk 9	Philadelphia	Cole	Adams
Wk 10	Green Bay	Collins	Witten
Wk 10	Green Bay	Barnett	Gurode
Wk 10	Green Bay	Matthews	Adams
Wk 10	Green Bay	Barnett	Barber
Wk 10	Green Bay	Woodson	Adams
Wk 11	Washington	Griffin	Davis
Wk 12	Oakland	Scott	Davis
Wk 12	Oakland	Scott	Free
Wk 13	New York	Rouse	Gurode
Wk 13	New York	Sintim	Romo/Garrett
Wk 14	San Diego	Siler	Free

Table Tutorial

Archives:

Sacks and Targets - New York

Sacks and Targets - Oakland

Sacks and Targets - Washington

Sacks and Targets - Green Bay

Sacks and Targets - Philadelphia

Sacks and Targets - Seattle

Sacks and Targets - Atlanta

Sacks and Targets - Kansas City

Before Kansas City, the Sacks and Targets were part of the Football 301 posts.

Football 301: Decoding Garrett - Week 14

2009-12-15T07:14:00.001-06:00

There have been 3 games this season where the Cowboys gathered fewer yards than on Sunday when they had 360. At Denver, At Green Bay, and H vs Washington were both less productive, and in those games, the Cowboys scored 10, 7, and 7 points. So, as you can see, it would have been nice if the Cowboys had done more than their 2 drives of reasonable length on Sunday.

As a season evolves, the Cowboys are trying to narrow down their playbook to what they do well, and at the same time, continue to add things to keep from being too terribly predictable and to use their personnel in a way that squeezes full potential out of your abilities.

In football 301, I generally try to stick to breaking down the positive plays and attempt to not make this a negative rant about why Jason Garrett is not doing a great job. The fact is, he is a bright offensive mind, and gets plenty of things right, and I try to point that out each week while offering some observations on how they could get even better.

But, one other time, when we broke down the crucial goal line failure during Week 4 - Denver, we looked at what went wrong with the offense at the key moment of the game. I believe we will effort to do some of that today.

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
12	6	24	5-15	1-9
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	5	18	4-18	1-0
22	14	92	12-66	2-26
23	3	0	3-0	0-0
WC22	1	6	1-6	0-0
S21	3	-12	0-0	3-(-12)
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	17	159	1-5	16-154
S12	7	61	0-0	7-61
Totals	56	348	26-110	30-238

Table Tutorial

Definition of the Personnel Groups, click here .

As you can surmise, much of the game plan was normal. 13 games into the season, there is rarely a new wrinkle of great substance. But, Garrett has slowly (once a game) tried to introduce S21, which is a new-look at the shotgun offense, where the Cowboys put 2 RBs in the formation, Barber to one side, Felix Jones to the other. I believe this is part of the "use Felix more initiative", which I suppose is owner-driven based on some of our findings.

Regardless, they ran the S21 3 times, for a total of -12 yards. 2 incomplete pass plays, and a sack surrendered, so I think we can say that needs more work.

And then, "23" personnel. This week, without Martellus Bennett available, the "23" was going to have to find a 3rd TE to make it work. So, in comes G Cory Procter to attempt to help the most powerful of the power run formations. 2 RBs (often a FB) and 3 TEs and 5 OLmen. That is plenty of beef to move a yard.

The "23" package had been used for 6 snaps in 2009. It is a look only used on 3rd and 1, 4th and 1, or goal-line situations. 6 snaps for the entire year, for 750 plays going into Sunday. For 6 plays, they spend time every week in practice, staying ready for just these situations. Since Denver in week 4, when the Cowboys used "23" for their only TD, the Cowboys have not needed it, except for 1 snap against Seattle. 1 snap in 8 weeks. But, on Sunday, when you least suspect it, and when you lose a Tight End to injury, you need it 3 times to get 1 yard.

Video Breakdowns:

Thanks, Brian at DC Fanatic.com . He made his phone-in debut to BaD Radio yesterday, and deserves your occasional visit to his site.

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The Play:2Q 2/G/1 - 23 Barber 0 gain

What Happened: Before we get too far into this, I want to readily admit I don't fully understand offensive line technique in general, but at the goal-line I really don't. So, with that in mind, let's look at 23 personnel. We have Procter off LT, Phillips off RT, and Witten to the right of Phillips. Anderson at FB, and Barber deep. It appears to be a very basic lead play, where hypothetically, you head behind Anderson, into a hole in the "A" gap, between Gurode and Davis, with the understanding that Barber may have to adjust on the fly and just try to find any gap with which he can get the final yard by launching into the endzone. Tim Dobbins, who is now famous for his post-game quotes about the imagination of this offense is the key linebacker in this play - #51 and he meets Barber and drives him back. It looks like Leonard Davis (watch for a theme here) fails to get to 51 and occupy him, in fact, you can see Bigg hold his ankles in desperation. Phillips and Gurode both lose badly at the point of attack, and It is tough to see Free (until you see him face down on the turf as Barber is getting stuffed), but when 3 of the 4 guys on that side of the line appear to lose, then Barber and Deon Anderson are pretty much on their own. Anderson stands his guy up well, but Barber doesn't have a chance. This is not good.

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The Play:2Q 3/G/1 - "23" - Barber 0 gain

What Happened: This one is not quite as easy to figure out as 2nd and Goal. In that play, most everyone loses their block, but on 3rd and Goal, it seems that there is some green between Gurode and Davis. Barber bounces is it to the outside of Davis and it gets plugged up out there when Phillips cannot keep 93 Castillo from turning the play back inside. Again, Dobbins 51 and Siler 59 are there, but I would have liked to see if Barber could have pushed Siler into the endzone if he would have stayed inside on this play. Again, on the goal-line, every inch counts, so I am not saying there is an obvious hole, but rather a different choice may have resulted in that extra 3 inches. Deon Anderson goes to the left to attract some attention this time, but the Chargers are swarming. I suppose in the big scheme of things, this would have been the play to dink it over the top to Witten, but as you can see 23 Jammer and 25 Ellison are sitting on Witten waiting for that most obvious of ideas. This is why teams will sometimes attempt to throw it to a player like Procter (Mike Vrabel) who would not get any attention from the defense in a scenario like this one.

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The Play: 2Q 4/G/1 - "23" Barber 0 gain

What Happened: And here the goal-line stand is complete. "23" again, but Deon Anderson goes out, and Marion Barber moves to FB. We don't have a ton of plays to call upon in this scenario, but I have to believe the Chargers were sitting on the idea that Barber was getting the ball on a quick smash, and Felix was there merely as a decoy. Again, I would love to have an OL coach sitting with me and explaining the intention of this play. To me, it appears to fake to Felix is pointless, as they never try to sell it. It appears that LT and LG are both blocking down inside (yesterday I suggested Kosier was pulling - clearly wrong), which only further congests the interior of the line. Is it possible that it is Romo's option to actually pitch it to Jones here and the Line is blocking for both possibilities? Regardless, in the impact zone (between 65 Gurode and 68 Free) there appear to be 4 Chargers for 3 blockers. This allows 59 Siler to shoot the A gap and meet Barber behind the line, who is not getting as much speed since he is lined up at FB. I have to tell you, the 3 plays all go behind Leonard Davis, and I cannot tell you that he "won" his block in any of the 3 plays. I also have to wonder the logic of asking the Right side of your line to win when Colombo is out. They never seemed to consider the left side. In goal-line plays, I know LBs are not always fully accounted for, because you don't have a chance to get 2nd level blocks, but you obviously cannot have them slicing your gaps up and meeting your ball carrier in the backfield. This was a very poor result.

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The Play: 3Q S11 - TD pass to Austin

What Happened: I really liked this idea, but it is all predicated on the discipline of the Chargers. S11, with Austin and Witten on the right, Williams and Crayton on the left. On this play, once Witten stays in to block, it is all based on Romo and Barber selling the run. If they do, there is a chance that everyone may freeze and Austin can get behind a host of Chargers in the secondary. At the snap, watch 23 Jammer who is covering Austin signal to 27 Oliver behind him. We don't know the message, but it appears Jammer is expecting Oliver's help at a certain depth. Oliver is not paying any attention to anything but Romo's fake to Barber, and he sneaks up for run support. Trouble for Oliver when it is a pass, and Jammer and Oliver look like lost together, and Romo sets up a much easier throw with a great fake. Nicely done, and like last week on the Williams TD, the precision of the fakes are allowing for much easier passing lanes.

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The Play: 2Q 1/10/29 "22" Felix +12

What Happened: I am often asked, what is the Cowboys' identity on offense. You know my answer if you read this every week, but here it is on this one play. The ability for the Cowboys to win at the point of attack and allow their runners to head down the field untouched for 12 yards. Every OLmen wins here, and the Cowboys have done this time and time again. From this, the opposition has no choice but to crowd the box. This, in turn, sets up play action, and the Cowboys offense begins to march. Obviously, things change when you get to the goal-line and take any possibility of passing out of the mix, and then the defense knows your ideas and can diagnose and address far easier. But this is a perfect example of doing what you do.

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Target Distribution and Sack studies will be in another entry today. Stay tuned for that.
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Past Episodes:

Week 13 - New York Giants
Week 12 - Oakland Raiders
Week 11 - Washington Redskins
Week 10 - Green Bay Packers
Week 9 - Philadelphia Eagles
Week 8 - Seattle Seahawks
Week 7 - Atlanta Falcons
Week 5 - Kansas City
Week 4 - Denver
Week 3 – Carolina
Week 2 - New York Giants
Week 1 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Garrett '08

The Morning After: Chargers 20, Cowboys 17

2009-12-14T08:00:00.006-06:00

I am officially out of excuses. And optimism. And positive spins.

For those of you that look to me to offer you some "half-full" mentality, I might be letting you down this week. I just can't believe that they spit the bit again. I blame myself for thinking this season was different. I blame myself for trusting this organization to get it right at the moment of truth.

I mean, at some point, if you keep picking the coyote to catch the road runner and you are wrong repeatedly, do we blame the coyote or those picking him despite the ever mounting pile of evidence that says the road runner will always get away?

On Sunday at the new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, the Chargers avoided any and all aspects of the "ambush theory" and did what good teams do in the month of December, waited out a reasonable performance from the inferior home team and then made all of the plays in the 4th Quarter to seal their 10th victory of the season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys followed their familiar December path, where the crucial moments of the game are all wrong, and despite doing a few things well, they leave with their 5th defeat and the sinking feeling that defeat #6 is merely 5 days away.

The Cowboys offense left at least 10 points on the field - and when you lose by 3, that is an enourmous number. The Cowboys defense surrendered scoring drives in the first half of 84 and 64 yards. Then in the 4th Quarter when it absolutely needed a stop, they allowed 2 stake-in-the-heart possessions of 75 yards and 73 yards. In "win" time, Dallas could not get a drive going, and the Chargers could; marching right down the field with 11:23 Time of Possession in the 4th Quarter alone.

The fact that really shows in a game like this is that you can see the fragile mentality of the Cowboys organization. I was asked last night if the Cowboys are "soft" and I think that is a difficult conclusion to draw when a team wins many physical battles over the course of a game and a season. But, do they possess the composure and the mental strength to weather a storm and emerge on the other side? Or, when adversity arrives on the door-step, do the Cowboys collectively collapse under the pressure? I think the evidence answers that question. They appear to be "mentally soft". You can wait them out. At some point, they will crack under the pressure. They will miss a Field Goal. They will let Vincent Jackson get behind them on 3rd and Long. They will give up a 15 play drive when they absolutely must get the ball back for the offense.

So, who do we blame? I suppose today will be one of those days on the radio where nobody will be free from the ridicule. And who should be safe? If the object of the game around here is to quiet the ghosts of past failures at the moment of truth, then these 2 losses in the last 2 weeks don't exactly accomplish that mission.

As difficult as it is to admit, the Cowboys franchise is merely following its same path that it has worn since its last Super Bowl victory in 1995. A path that often includes a hierarchy of relatively powerless men answering to an owner that promised us he would be involved in everything to "socks and jocks". He is keeping his word, and his results are there for all to see in the record books - nearly 5,000 days since the last playoff wins.

It would surely be easier to handle this team if they would not demonstrate their reasonable quality so often. They are not a bad team and they are not devoid of talent. They play hard and have many quality individuals. But in the end, they end up with what appears to be shockingly similar results. And, of course, what makes me angry is that I only get these moments of clarity after I realize how silly a win prediction on Friday truly was. Again, don't blame the coyote for being the coyote. Blame yourself for believing this episode he will actually catch the roadrunner.

Now, some random observations from the game that showed us 2009 will most likely not end differently:

* The best news to emerge last night from this loss was the report that DeMarcus Ware is out of the hospital and resting at his house. Ware, who was carted off the field with 11:28 to go in the 4th Quarter, appeared to suffer a severe neck injury during a pass rush sequence. At that point in the game, the score was 10-10, and the Chargers were going to face a Ware-less defense for a 3rd and 12, from the SD 47 yards line. Could the Cowboys hang in there without their best defender? Well, 2 plays, and 53 yards later, Antonio Gates is celebrating an easy Touchdown. My first thought is to acknowledge that losing Ware demonstrates his immense value to this team, and we should not be shocked that the results after he left were not positive. My second thought is that, once again, this shows the mental fragility of the team, that losing one guy can make the defense collapse like a house of cards when it needed someone to step up and make a play in Ware's absence. Ware appears to be suffering from a sprained neck, so his return in the next few weeks appears to be a real possibility.

* The Cowboys almost took the game over in the 2nd Quarter, with a phenomenal drive that was primarily that "power run" set domination. Felix Jones for 12, 12, 5. Barber for 8 and 5. Choice for 5 and 6. Jones for 7, Barber for 3 - down to the 1 yard line. The entire length of the field without a single pass completion. It was a thing of beauty- Physical strength and demoralizing results for the Chargers defense. And, then the game turned. 2nd and goal: nothing. 3rd and goal: nothing. 4th and goal: Less than nothing. When they had 3 cracks from the 1 with the season hanging in the balance, the Cowboys could not get the 36 inches necessary. What happened? Well, we could carefully analyze every block to see who got it done, and who didn't, but I will save some of that for Football 301. But, if I may offer a cheap 2nd guess, it would be three-fold about that 4th down call. First, if I have one run with my whole season on the line, do I run to the right behind the new guy, Doug Free? Or do I take it to the left, like I did on the goal-line in Philadelphia? Second, on the 1 yard line, when 11 defenders are on the line, can I afford to wait for the development of the pulling Kyle Kosier? Brandon Siler sure didn't wait. He shot the gap, beat Kosier to the point of attack, and blew up the play. And Third, don't I have Barber at Tailback, with Deon Anderson's thunder blocks in front of him, rather than trying to get cute and have Felix deep and Barber up front? Would the Chargers really believe that for the first time in his career, you would trust Felix Jones in a short yardage situation? Or, did the Chargers know, like we all did, that Jones was a decoy, and Barber was getting the rock again. Regardless, the game changed right then and there, and we will have all off-season to debate if any of those 3 issues have merit, or if we are all just second-guessing the result - that Barber was stopped at the 1-yard line; and the season might have been stopped, too.

* Nick Folk.

* I know that my vote is not the deciding vote in the Jerry Jones approval rating test, but I cannot tell you how nuts he makes me sometimes. From the role that his head coaches must take, to the assumption that he needs more Felix, to the idiocy of the bits in his new stadium, to the roof being closed when it is 68 degrees outside - the hits just keep coming. So, let me get this straight: It is arguably the biggest game of the year. One in which the crowd needs to make a difference and help will the Cowboys to victory. A game that is so crucial that many will lose their jobs over it if the result doesn't go the right direction. And with that all in mind, he thought it would be a great time to hand out 70,000+ 3D glasses to his fans, which effectively distracts his own audience from doing their job in the game? What is the point? What are we doing? Is the whole point of this new stadium to bring further glory to Jerry by proving we can herd well-meaning Cowboys fans onto a party platform 50-deep? Is it to show the silliness of the world's largest television - while ignoring the reality that it actually keeps your own fans from wanting to watch what is going on down on the field below? You cannot make this stupidity up! Why not issue XBoxs and cellphones to everyone attending so that they pay even less attention to the game? I can feel my blood pressure raise as I type this, so let me end this rant by admitting this stadium and I are never going to be on good terms, I don't believe.

* The Cowboys are 1-6 at home in December in their last 7 games. Amazing.

* The pass rush was ineffective again. I will readily admit that Philip Rivers was hit on several occasions as he delivered the ball, but the hits never seemed to affect the flight of the ball. He stood tall, took a hit, and moved the chains again. I was very impressed with his performance for much of the day.

* As for Romo, the numbers of efficiency were there all day. But much like the Cowboys, numbers are nice, but football comes down to scenarios and key moments in a game. During those scenarios and key moments, the offense has to cash in. And for whatever reason, they were 1-8 on 3rd down conversions. Not converting on 3rd down ends drives and turns TD opportunities into Field Goals (or missed Field Goals). A QB Rating of 111.7 was surely impressive, but unlike last week, you would have to admit he was the 2nd best QB on the field. Rivers had a lower QB rating (89.6) but converted several 3rd and long throws that kept his team rolling down the field, while going right after Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins. The corners for the Cowboys seem good enough usually, but clearly not anything that scares Rivers.

* I was asked by a few emailers to reprint my "end of another season" paragraph from last year's Baltimore game that I received so many compliments on. I hesitate to do so, because there are 3 games to go. The Cowboys can still save their skin (there I go, believing in the coyote, again). Regardless, your wish is my command:

As I was leaving a frigid Texas Stadium after the game, I was walking right behind a Dad and his boy. The boy must have been 7 or 8 years old and was crying about the result. Some people might roll their eyes, but I knew how the boy felt. When you are young, and you love a sports team, you believe the games and the seasons will all have the happy endings of the Disney movies that you watch. Guess what, son, if you are going to pledge allegiance to a team as it appears you have with the Dallas Cowboys, I want to welcome you to the fellowship of the die-hards. Understand, that once you do, you are not allowed out of this commitment, and you should also understand that most seasons are going to end in tears. A favorite team is the only thing a male human feels the same about when he is 5 and when he is 45 and when he is 75. You will change your mind on everything else. Girls, money, hobbies. But, you will always still feel the adrenaline rush of a win, and the gutting sadness of a horrible loss. I didn’t say anything to the boy, as his Dad was handling it (and he might not have welcomed my advice) but I felt for him. Welcome to sports, young man. Someday, you may live to see a championship or five, but most years will end with your guts spilling onto the floor. - December 21, 2008

Fellowship of the Die-hards or Fellowship of the Miserable? It is a fine line between the two.

3 games to go. Anyone believe in the coyote?