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NFL Game Picks - 2026 Week 1

2026-09-09T11:18:38.697-04:00

Welcome back for another season of the greatest product on television as the NFL season kicks off on a Wednesday night at Lumen Field just a few blocks walk from beautiful Pioneer Square in Seattle. As the Seahawks raise their championship banner, their Super Bowl 60 opponent, the New England Patriots will attempt to erase the ugly memory of Seattle’s 29-13 win.

The NFL is making me get these picks out early this week with games on Wednesday and Thursday, but amazingly I got the picks posted.

Last season in the NFL flipped the prognosticator’s on their head as usual, with the Seahawks and Patriots an unlikely pair in the Super Bowl, Perennial favorites such as the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC all fell short.

With New England, Chicago, Denver and Carolina surprisingly leading their divisions, the 2025 season had no shortage of fresh blood in the playoffs as young quarterbacks Drake Maye, Caleb Williams Bo Nix and Bryce Young represented the next generation of quarterbacks in the playoffs.

Now the 2026 season kicks off with Patrick Mahomes back in Kansas City, a changing of the guard at head coach in Buffalo, Baltimore and Pittsburgh and the NFC with the prohibitive favorite Los Angeles Rams loading up in the offseason and luring back Aaron Donald to team-up with trade acquisitions Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie on defense while MVP quarterback Matthew Stafford returns for another go-round.

As usual, optimism abounds in all 32 markets before the season begins (okay, maybe not in Miami as the rebuild is in full tear-down and tank mode). After New England and Chicago’s quick turnarounds last season, fan bases in New Orleans, Tennessee, New York and Las Vegas ask “why not us”.

After the Wednesday night Super Bowl rematch spectacle in Seattle on NBC/Peacock, the NFL goes down under on Thursday night as Netflix broadcasts from the Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne, Australia where locally it will be kicking off on Friday at 10:35 a.m but Thursday night back in the US (yes, the earth is round, flat-earthers--just because you don’t understand basic science doesn’t make it a conspiracy). The 49ers and Rams face off in what is a key NFC West battle.

Sunday is a beautiful day for the NFL Red Zone crowd with eight games in the early window.

Two surprise division winners from 2025, the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers face-off. New head coach Jesse Minter leads a healthy Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens into Indianapolis to face the Colts (whose season is hanging on the health of Daniel Jones and Sauce Gardner). An angry Baker Mayfield, with no new contract extension, leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Cincinnati to take on the preseason darling Bengals.

The Dead Money Man, Tua Tagolovaia is in Atlanta now as the Falcons face Aaron Rodgers and new head coach Mike McCarthy and the Pittsburgh Steelers in what looks like a season destined to go off the rails in a wildly entertaining fashion. The newly loaded-up on over-the-hill veterans New York Jets fight to keep second-year head coach Aaron Glenn’s job as they face their past ghosts in Tennessee as former Jets coach Robert Salah hosts them in his first game as head coach of the Titans.

My preseason NFC Champion pick, the New Orleans Saints and quarterback Tyler Shough head into the dome to take on Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. With Sean McDermott shown the door, new head coach Joe Brady leads Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills against arguably the best defense in the NFL as they face the Houston Texans and quarterback C.J. Stroud in a what could be a make-or-break season.

Finally, the early games wrap up with Deshawn Watson somehow at quarterback for the Cleveland Browns as they travel to Duval to take on Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars as Travis Hunter returns from injury to electrify the defending AFC South champs on both sides of the ball.

In the late window, there are four games in week one.

The Arizona Cardinals travel to Los Angeles to get the first look at Mike McDonald’s new look offense as they face-off against the Chargers. Meanwhile, in a NFC North grudge match, the Green Bay Packers visit the Minnesota Vikings as the nation gets to see how Kyler Murray does dressed in purple and throwing to Justin Jefferson.

Jeff Hafley takes his “ripped down to the studs” Miami Dolphins into Las Vegas where they face Kirk Cousins and the Raiders. Finally, it’s an NFC East battle as the Washington Commanders and quarterback Jayden Daniels look to bounce back from a disappointing 2025 season at Philadelphia. The Eagles try to defend their back-to-back NFC East titles after another season of turnover and yet another new offensive coordinator for Jalen Hurts.

After waiting all week for Sunday night (at least that is what NBC/Peacock tells us we do), the NFC East takes center stage for the Dak Prescott/Jaxon Dart showdown as the Dallas Cowboys visit John Harbaugh’s new look New York Giants.

Finally, on Monday Night Football ESPN gets a marquee AFC West battle at Arrowhead (thankfully no longer GEHA Field, which just sounded so wrong) as Patrick Mahomes returns from his season-ending knee injury and takes on Sean Payton and NFC West defending champion Broncos. It’s a tough test for Mahomes as Nik Bonitto and Pat Surtain anchor Denver’s ferocious defense.

Each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for more than five years now (and many appearances pre-pandemic as well).

Check out this week’s episode as we made our preseason award predictions for the 2026 NFL Season, as well as division winners and playoff teams, checked in on the biggest NFL news, and of course all the game predictions and prognostications with our bold predictions--it is available here.

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

As always, the running tally of the predictions will be tracked here including straight up and against the spread results for each prior week and the running tally for the season. In addition, the lock of the week and upset special results are tracked.

All picks are for entertainment purposes only, but the Saints to be NFC Champions is currently at 4,000 to one odds on most betting apps, and if you listened to the podcast you can tell that I jumped all over that bet while we were in the middle of recording the show! This is the year of the Saints--You heard it here first.

Now, on to the week one picks!

Wednesday

New England Patriots 22 at Seattle Seahawks 24 (-3.5)

Moneyline: Seahawks

Vs Spread: Patriots

Thursday, in Melbourne

San Francisco 49ers 24 at Los Angeles Rams 20 (-2.5)

Moneyline:49ers

Vs Spread: 49ers

Sunday Early Window:

New Orleans Saints 23 at Detroit Lions 20 (-7) UPSET SPECIAL

Moneyline: Saints

Vs Spread: Saints

Buffalo Bills 13 (-1.5) at Houston Texans 17

Moneyline: Texans

Vs Spread: Texans

Baltimore Ravens 24 (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts 27

Moneyline: Colts

Vs Spread: Colts

Chicago Bears 27 (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers 24

Moneyline: Bears

Vs Spread: Bears

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 at Cincinnati Bengals 33 (-3.5) (OT)

Moneyline: Bengals

Vs Spread: Bengals

Atlanta Falcons 21 at Pittsburgh Steelers 20 (-3)

Moneyline: Falcons

Vs Spread: Falcons

New York Jets 13 at Tennessee Titans 17 (-3)

Moneyline: Titans

Vs Spread: Titans

Cleveland Browns 23 at Jacksonville Jaguars 31 (-7) LOCK OF THE WEEK

Moneyline: Jaguars

Vs Spread: Jaguars

Sunday Late Window:

Washington Commanders 18 at Philadelphia Eagles 20 (-5.5)

Moneyline: Eagles

Vs Spread: Commanders

Arizona Cardinals 16 at Los Angeles Chargers 24 (-11)

Moneyline: Chargers

Vs Spread: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins 9 at Las Vegas Raiders 27 (-3)

Moneyline: Raiders

Vs Spread: Raiders

Green Bay Packers 24 (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings 16

Moneyline: Packers

Vs Spread: Packers

Sunday Night Football:

Dallas Cowboys 38 (-2.5) at New York Giants 34

Moneyline: Cowboys

Vs Spread: Cowboys

Monday Night Football:

Denver Broncos 27 at Kansas City Chiefs 17 (-2.5)

Moneyline: Broncos

Vs Spread: Broncos

BONUS:

Hal’s DraftKings Parlay Play of the Week:

Saints (Moneyline +250),

Colts (Moneyline +145),

Falcons (Moneyline +154), and

Raiders (Moneyline -185)

Odds: +3255

$10 pays $335.53

W2W4 New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks - NFL 2026 Week 1

2026-09-09T11:02:39.513-04:00

The New England Patriots open the 2026 NFL season facing the Seattle Seahawks in a rematch of Super Bowl 60 on a Wednesday night in early September. While a Super Bowl rematch is always good drawing eyeballs, it was a strange choice by the NFL to kickoff the season with such a match-up as the opening game will always pull in a large audience hungry for the return of professional football.

For New England, it was a difficult ending to a miraculous season that saw the 4-13 team of 2024 transformed into a 13-4 AFC East champion unit led by their defense and just enough timely offense in the playoffs. Despite reaching the Super Bowl, it was clear that upgrades were necessary.

New England reloaded in the offseason on offense, signing top free agent wide receiver Romeo Doubs away from the Green Bay Packers. Later, they swung a trade with the Eagles to extract a legitimate number one wide receiver in A.J. Brown. On the offensive line, they added former Jets guard Alijah Vera-Tucker allowing Jared Wilson to return to his natural center position.

On defense, New England turned the roster over with Khyiris Tonga, Jaylin Hawkins, K’Levon Chaisson, Anfernee Jennings, Jahlani Tavai and Jack Gibbens all played in the Super Bowl on defense and are off the roster for the rematch. Harold Landry is also on injured reserve.

Mike Vrabel’s old pal Kevin Byard should add a lift to the secondary replacing Hawkins, while Chaisson and Jennings were swapped out for Dre’Mont Jones and rookie Gabe Jacas. Tonga’s playing time goes to Cory Durden while the linebackers coming off the bench will be Darius Muasau and rookie Namdi Obiazor.

Entering the regular season with a boosted offensive line and a pair of legitimate receivers to attack defenses is a huge boost. Remember, in Super Bowl 60 Seattle dared New England to win the one-on-one match-ups in the passing game and the Patriots could not. With Hunter Henry and Stefon Diggs neutralized, the passing game was dependent upon Mac Hollins and DeMario Douglas, a recipe for disaster as Kayshon Boutte added just one catch on five targets.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

The NFL’s return in 2026 will be broadcast by NBC and can be seen in the Boston area on NBC 10 Boston and in the greater Providence area on WJAR-10. Fans can stream the game on Peacock as well. Mike Tirico will handle play-by-play duties with Cris Collinsworth as the color analyst. Melissa Stark and Kaylee Hartung will work from the sidelines.

The opening game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. The always excellent Kevin Harlan will call the game while former Rams quarterback Kurt Warner will provide color while still seething about Brady, Belichick and the rest of the 2001 Patriots.

98.5 The Sports Hub serves the greater New England area as the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network. The network partners with 23 stations across New England to broadcast the game.

Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” and mid-day show host Scott Zolak, who somehow is apparently still on good terms with the Kraft family and kept his job for yet another season.

Key Stats:

New England Patriots

The Patriots offense finished second in points scored (490) and third in yards (6,449) in 2025 (all statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted) in 2025. They averaged 6.2 yards per play on offense led by the fourth most passing yards (4,258) and 31 passing touchdowns. The running game added the sixth-most rushing yards (2,191) and 4.4 yards per rush.

Despite all that, the running game was non-existent the last time they played Seattle and the receiving corps were bullied. New England turned the ball over three times that game and it was a huge part of the game turning into a rout in the fourth quarter. The Patriots were hurt by turnovers at times in 2025 as they finished the regular season ninth in the NFL in turnovers with 16. They were 18th with eight lost fumbles but fourth with just eight interceptions in the regular season.

The New England defense finished fourth in points allowed (320) and eighth in yards allowed (5,019). They allowed just 5.2 yards per play and were ninth in the NFL allowing just 3,290 passing yards. They were 14th allowing 25 passing touchdowns. The run defense allowed the sixth-fewest yards (1,729) and the fourth fewest rushing touchdowns (11) while allowing 4.2 yards per rush.

The defense made big plays throughout the playoffs and allowed just four field goals in the first three quarters keeping the game within reach. In the 2025 regular season, New England’s defense was 19th in forcing turnovers with just 19, something they hope Kevin Byard can help with with his ball-hawking ways. They were 10th in fumbles forced, with nine but only 18th in the league with ten interceptions.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks’offense finished third in points scored (483) and eighth in yards (5,973) in 2025. They averaged 5.9 yards per play on offense and had the eighth most passing yards (3,877) and had 25 passing touchdowns (16th). The running game was also a strength with the tenth-most rushing yards (2,096) but only averaged 4.1 yards per rush (25th).

The running game took a big hit with the loss of Kenneth Walker in free agency. Rookie Jadarian Price has been tabbed to fill the hole that also features Zach Charbonnet starting on injured reserve.

The Seattle offense was only limited by turnovers in 2025 with the team ranking 31st in the NFL with 28 turnovers. They were last overall with a league-leading 13 lost fumbles during the regular season and 26th with 15 interceptions (14 by Sam Darnold and one by wide receiver Cooper Kupp).

The defense lost edge rusher Boye Mafe in free agency but added veteran Dante Fowler to offset the loss.

They were also seventh with just 20 passing touchdowns allowed. The run defense allowed the third-fewest yards (1,563) and the second-fewest rushing touchdowns (9) while allowing a league best 3.7 yards per rush.

Seattle’s defense was sixth in forcing turnovers with 25. They were 18th in fumbles recovered with seven. They were ball-hawks finishing fifth in the NFL with 18 interceptions.

In the offseason the secondary lost a pair of starters with Riq Woolen jumping to Philadelphia and safety Coby Bryant leaving for Chicago,

NE Offense vs SEA Defense

For the Patriots’ offense, it would have been hard to play much worse than they did in Super Bowl 60. A lot of credit has to go to the Seahawks’ defense that swarmed the overmatched offensive line and quarterback Drake Maye. However, the glaring weakness was the wide receivers inability to separate from the Seahawks’ secondary as they sent multiple rushers at Maye.

Pass Offense:

As the Seahawks showed in Super Bowl 60, rather than investing in a single, dominant pass rusher, the Seahawks generated pressure from every spot of the field. Blitzing cornerbacks, safeties, linebackers along with a strong edge and interior push made the game a nightmare for Drake Maye.

No player for Seattle has more than seven sacks total during the regular season but DeMarcus Lawrence (six sacks) and Uchenna Nwosu (seven sacks) had consistent pressure and former Jets star Leonard Williams (seven sacks) remained a dominant force teaming up with young stud Byron Murphy (seven sacks) to form a pocket-pushing presence inside.

Seattle blitzed, but primarily on third down and it was devastating in the Super Bowl. Mike MacDonald’s defenses moved the front and stunted and looped, brought pressure from unexpected blitzers and showed pressure on one side and dropped defenders back into coverage leaving Maye and the offensive line confused as to who was rushing .

Seattle played a ton of zone defense last year (80.4%) in 2025 per Sharp Football Analysis, but top cornerback Devon Witherspoon is unique in that he is capable of lining up both inside and outside and on the left side and on the right. He is easily their top man-coverage defender, but turns into a ballhawk when in zone and can keep his eyes in the backfield.

Nickelback Nick Emmanwori excels at slot cornerback but is also a hard-hitting strong safety and the weakside linebacker in the Seattle defense and his ability in run support allows Seattle to keep extra defensive backs on the field.

Safety Coby Bryant is a big loss in the secondary, as is the long and fast Riq Woolen. Ty Okada has big shoes to fill at safety but he has been ruled out of the week one match-up leaving Seattle thin at safety. By letting Woolen walk, Seattle has to hope Josh Jobe’s Super Bowl performance (only four receptions allowed on 11 targets for just 20 yards) is the norm and not his usual inconsistent play.

For New England’s passing attack, Drake Maye’s shoulder injury is a thing of the past as the new season kicks off. Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the level of the defenses being faced, maybe it was getting the two rookies on the left side of the offensive line back up to speed after injuries, but more than likely it was a combination of all of those that led to the offense sputtering out in the playoffs last year.

Amazingly, Mack Hollins and DeMario Douglas were the key cogs in the passing game in the Super Bowl against Seattle. Stefon Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry were blanketed by Seattle and Kayshon Boutte’s contested catch ability abandoned him as Woolen and Jobe stuck to his hip throughout the game.

Adding A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs give the Patriots two big outside receivers with both separation ability and contested catch ability, something they lacked mightily in the last match-up. Add in the defections of Woolen and Bryant, and this match-up with the secondary should definitely lean back towards New England’s favor.

On the offensive line, Garrett Bradbury was moved and second-year center Jared Wilson finally gets to step up at his natural position. He struggled at left guard, but especially coming back from his high ankle sprain late last year.

Little noise has been heard about the rest of the offensive line in training camp, which is exactly what teams want. No news on the o-line is always good news. With Wilson at center, free agent signing Alijah Vera-Tucker stepping in at left guard and second-year left tackle Will Campbell healthy and able to play with power again after playing through his knee injury when clearly not close to 100% in the playoffs.

Mike Onwenu and Morgan Moses return to anchor the right side of the offensive line. With an entire offseason to get this unit ready, New England looks to have the pass protection upgraded and passing game with more weapons to match-up with top passing defenses in 2026.

Key Match-up: A.J Brown vs Devon Witherspoon

Get your popcorn ready!

Witherspoon isn’t likely to follow Brown and will likely see snaps across from Romeo Doubs and others, but expect the NBC/Peacock cameras to spend a lot of time paying attention to this match-up on the outside. New England’s offense needs to get Brown and Doubs involved early and often to sustain drives and put pressure on the Seattle defense.

New England struggled in the Super Bowl to push the ball downfield and with the run game doing nothing, Seattle’s secondary ganged up in the middle of the field on Hunter Henry and Stefon Diggs and dared the other receivers to win on the outside in single coverage.

That failure to consistently win against single coverage resulted in overhauling the receiving unit. Now Brown (and Doubs) give Maye a new dimension in the passing game and will put pressure on Seattle’s cornerbacks.

Run Offense:

Rhamondre Stevenson teamed up with TreVeyon Herderson last season to form a dynamic one-two punch in the running game. However, Henderson is not expected to play against Seattle due to his ankle injury.

The combo of Stevenson and Henderson combined for 1,514 yards rushing last year in the regular season and added 15 rushing touchdowns. Without Henderson on Wednesday night,

New England’s running back depth is going to be tested.

Corey Kiner was brought in at the end of camp as the third back after Terrrell Jennings was put on injured reserve (and later reached an injury settlement). New England had an open competition in camp, but no one grabbed the job with seventh-round draft pick Jam Miller released and Hassan Haskins and Lan Larison both on the practice squad.

New England’s secret weapon is former Bills fullback Reggie Gilliam. Gilliam made James Cook a ton of money in Buffalo and as the hammer leading the way for Stevenson, this could be a big season for the New England run game,

Expect Stevenson to play around 70% of the snaps and either Larison or Haskins activated for the game and get more work as Kiner learns the offense on the fly. While Gilliam may not play 50% of the snaps, his ability to get the run game going on early downs should change the narrative in the rematch.

Seattle’s run defense is impressive and did not get enough credit for the Super Bowl 60 win. Seattle linebackers Drake Thomas and Ernest Jones are sure tacklers and have explosive speed. They were in the backfield consistently slowing the run game in the Super Bowl.

They count on Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams (and Jarran Reed and Brandon Pili) to occupy linemen inside and keep Thomas and Jones clean to shoot gaps and make plays. Murphy and Williams are strong and capable of penetration and blowing up plays in the backfield even when double-teamed.

Uchenna Nwosu is good, not great, against the run on the edge, but former Cowboy Demarcus Lawrence on the opposite side is the strength of the run defense. He sets a violent edge and his patience and experience allow him to redirect running backs into the waiting arms of Thomas and Jones.

Key Match-up: Jared Wilson vs Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy

Wilson struggled mightily in February facing the interior pressure mounted by the Seattle defense (I could add Jarran Reed and Ryan Mills as well, as they also were effective on the interior). However, whether the lingering high ankle sprain or playing out of position, or just rookie nerves, the performance was a key part of the breakdown of the offense in the Super Bowl.

Wilson fared better this summer, particularly with the joint practices with the Eagles as he faced their dynamic interior defenders and held his own. With no snaps played in the preseason, Wilson remains an unknown quantity at center for games that actually matter.

Williams and Murphy both had their way with the New England interior offensive line. Both left no space for the running game and put the Patriots in a tough position on third down. In addition, Murphy added a pair of sacks.

NE Defense vs SEA Offense:

The New England defense was outstanding in the playoffs last year. Despite missing Harold Landry at times and with the edge rusher not active to start the season due to the lingering knee injury, the New England defense was a huge strength, even in the Super Bowl as they allowed just one offensive touchdown.

Former inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr is now officially the defensive coordinator as Terrell Williams, who was supposed to be the defensive coordinator last year was away from the team dealing with prostate cancer treatment, and returns as assistant head coach supporting Mike Vrabel.

Kuhr found his groove in the second half of the season and into the playoffs calling a number of timely blitzes and his aggressive play calling with disguised coverages behind them were a key in confusing opposing quarterbacks.

Seattle won 14 games and has one of the brightest young offensive minds in the NFL in Klint Kubiak. Kubiak has the bloodlines and is in line to accept the Las Vegas head coach job once the clock hits 00:00 on Sunday. In the playoffs, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud and Denver backup Jarrett Stidham were battered and confused into key turnovers.

The Seahawks are similar to the Patriots in philosophy as they run the ball with heavy volume to set up big plays down the field in the passing game. With running back Kenneth Walker now in Kansas City and Zach Charbonnet rehabbing his knee injury, the pressure is on rookie first-round draft pick running back Jadarian Price.

Pass Defense:

The Patriots let K’Lavon Chaisson walk in free agency and will be missing 2025 sack leader Harold Landry as he works his way back from his knee injury. Instead, New England will lean on free agent edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones and 2025 undrafted free agent Elijah Ponder to generate pressure on the quarterback.

The pressure that New England generates is from their duo of penetrating interior defensive linemen. Milton Williams’ signing was mocked in the press--until the games started last season. All of a sudden, the same idiots that criticized the Patriots for signing Williams were bashing the Eagles for letting him walk in free agency.

Christian Barmore bounced back from the career threatening blood clots that wiped out his 2024 season. While Barmore and Williams did not put up gaudy sack numbers in 2025, the interior pressure disrupted plays and led to interceptions, incompletions and turnovers.

Robert Spillane is healthy after a tough go in the second half of the season and playoffs but his presence in the middle of the defense is a boost to the New England interior pass defense. Having Spillane out there alongside the athletic Christian Ellis helps the Patriots’ pass defense.

With Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones blanketing opposing wide receivers throughout 2025, the Seahawks will again have a tough test against the New England secondary. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was one of the best receivers in the NFL in 2025, until he ran into Gonzalez in Super Bowl 60.

Adding Kevin Byard in free agency gives New England an upgrade at safety. Byard thrived with Vrabel in Tennessee in the past and had seven interceptions in Chicago last season. With 2025 fourth-round draft pick Craig Woodson looking like a potential star with strong coverage and willing help in the run game, the pass defense should be solid.

Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards in the regular season and 1,793 went to Smith-Njigba. Seattle aligns the former Ohio State wide receiver everywhere in the formation to try and dictate match-ups and will do all they can to keep him far away from Gonzalez.

Seattle brought back veteran Cooper Kupp to fill that third down/safety blanket slot receiver role. The crafty veteran can still make some plays, but he should see a lot of Marcus Jones in this game. Kupp led the Seahawks with six catches for 61 yards in the Super Bowl, but he caught only 50% of his targets.

The Seahawks traded for explosive speedster Rashid Shaheed last year at midseason but his impact was on special teams. Seattle needs much more out of Shaheed on offense in 2026 as the presumptive third wide receiver. Tory Horton has struggled with injuries last year as a rookie and has been slowed by a hamstring injury in training camp and may not play in week one.

The Seahawks’ passing offense has another weapon in third year tight end AJ Barner. 2025 second-round draft pick Elijah Arroyo was expected to be the future starter at tight end but Barner had a great season last year and looks to grow his role in 2026. Big and capable as a blocker in the running game, Barner is a smooth route-runner and showed that off while scoring the Seahawks’ only offensive touchdown in Super Bowl 60.

Sam Darnold was hardly MVP material in the Super Bowl, but he stayed out of trouble and didn’t turn the football over, showing his growth since his days seeing ghosts while with the Jets. He will need to do more on Wednesday night as the ground game is a question and the New England offense will likely not allow him to get away with kicking field goals instead of reaching the end zone.

Key Match-up: CB Christian Gonzalez vs WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Gonzalez may be (currently) the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL, but in Super Bowl 60 he showed why. Seattle had to move Smith-Njigba away from Gonzalez in order to get him the football. Smith-Njigba had four receptions for 27 yards, with just one with Gonzalez in coverage. Targeted ten times, Seattle was fortunate the running game picked up the slack.

Without Kenneth Walker, more pressure will be on Smith-Njigba to produce offense in the Wednesday night rematch. However, Gonzalez has not skipped a beat in camp (despite missing non-mandatory practices while waiting on the contract extension situation to be resolved) and had a strong camp but may be rusty after skipping both joint practices against the Eagles and Colts.

Run Defense:

The New England run defense had three consecutive standout performances in the playoffs before the Seahawks ground out 141 yards on the ground (with 135 from Super Bpwl 60 MVP Kenneth Walker). Credit the interior offensive line as they won the one-on-one battles up front and opened huge running lanes from the first drive through the last.

The Seahawks’ offensive line will be under pressure to establish the running game as effectively as they did in the last match-up. The pundits haven’t had a concern with Seattle losing Walker, which is a slap in the face to the running back. The 2022 second-round draft pick had 1,027 yards and a 4.6 yards per rush average last year and those numbers aren’t easily replaced.

Jadarian Price seemed to be a stretch by the Seahawks when picked with the last pick of the first round, but the back-up running back from Notre Dame looks to be the real deal and a solid fit for the Seahawks offense. He is a willing blocker and decent pass-catcher out of the backfield, which is vital for the Seattle offense.

With short-yardage back George Holani as the top backup, there is little depth until Charbonnet returns. That ups the pressure on the rookie running back in 2026.

For New England’s defense, the resurgence of the run defense last year occurred with the return to health of Milton Williams at the end of the season. Losing interior run-stuffer Khyiris Tonga seemed to be yet another example of the Patriots’ front office low-balling a player and letting him reach free agency where Kansas City paid him what he was worth.

Cory Durden is a good player who is solid, but lacks the run-stuffing chops of Tonga. This puts more pressure on the edge rushers to produce against the run and set a strong edge. Fortunately, that is Dre’mont Jones’ calling card in the NFL.

Middle linebacker Robert Spillane is healthy and was a huge part of the run defense in 2025. He was beat up by the end of the season last year and needs to step up this time in the rematch against Seattle. Christian Ellis may overrun a play, but his athleticism plays well in the run game. Safety Craig Woodson should be able to help coming up in support of the run defense.

Key Match-up: NT Cory Durden vs C Jalen Sundel

Seattle center Jalen Sundell (a former North Dakota State Bison) had an up and down season but was very effective in the Super Bowl game. He will see a lot of Cory Durden in the trenches again on Wednesday night. The Seattle offensive line was the real MVP of the Super Bowl winning in the trenches and controlling the line of scrimmage all night.

Durden has good size and was just another of the many unknown free agents journeymen in camp in 2025. However, he put in the work and took to coaching and earned a roster spot. When Khyiris Tonga was injured, Durden stepped in and the defense didn’t skip a beat.

If Durden can stalemate Sundel and help slow the Seattle run game early, New England can make the Seattle offense one-dimensional and add pressure on Darnold and the passing game. Getting Seattle out of their game plan early and keeping the offense from long, sustained drives is vital for the New England defense.

Other Factors:

The game is at Lumen Field and last season the Patriots were the Road Warriors (9-0 on the road). Lumen will be loud. That gives the Seattle defense an advantage with the offense having to operate with a silent count.

Seattle has had a steady veteran kicker in Jason Myers, although he uncharacteristically struggled in the 2026 preseason missing multiple field goals and two extra points. Last season the strong legged kicker led the NFL in points by making 41 of 48 field goals and all 48 extra points in the regular season.

New England counters with rookie Andres Borregales who shook off a rough start and made 84.4% of his field goals and 53 of 55 extra points in 2025. Both kickers have strong legs and are accurate and are capable of making kicks out to 60 yards on Wednesday night in what should be good weather.

Bryce Baringer is on injured reserve and that is a concern for the Patriots as practice squad punter Matt Wishnowsky aka the Boomin’ Onion will be stepping in.

Seattle has an Aussie as well in second team All-Pro Michael Dickson. He averaged 49 yards per punt and an excellent net yards per punt average of 42.2 yards. He had just three touchbacks during the regular season.

With Marcus Jones back to return punts, the Patriots have a return threat. Of course, Seattle counters with Rasheed Shahid, a big play just waiting to happen.

The coverage units for both teams are missing key players. Brendan Schooler from New England earned All Pro on special teams last year in addition to making the Pro Bowl but starts the season on the NFI list. Seattle is also missing an impact special teamer as Jake Bobo will start the season on injured reserve.

Game Pick:

The Patriots and Seahawks were both very similar teams in 2025, but this is a new season. Both return the majority of their Super Bowl rosters and both have an all-world young cornerback highlighting their defense with Christian Gonzalez and the perennially underrated Devon Witherspoon.

While the Seahawks will have the edge with more dynamic pass rushers, the Patriots’ defense will need to manufacture pressure, create turnovers, make stops on third down like they did in the playoffs until they ran into Seattle in the Super Bowl.

Sam Darnold prevented big mistakes and did just enough to keep the Seahawks rolling on offense in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks leaned on the running game but with a rookie manning the position, their dominance will be difficult to replicate.

New England will be without big play running back TreVeyon Henderson and lack quality backups behind Rhamondre Stevenson.

Drake Maye is healthy for the week one rematch and needs to be able to stand in and diagnose and withstand the pressure this time. With a new pair of wide receivers, the offense should be able to better match up with a Seattle secondary that took a small step back.

I see the teams as pretty evenly matched right now, but on the road, on a weird Wednesday night, raising the banner and the Lumen FIeld noise is too much for the Patriots to overcome. I think the Patriots cover the spread this time, but Seattle still comes out ahead on a late field goal.

PATRIOTS 22 vs SEAHAWKS 24

Spread: Seahawks -3: Patriots

Moneyline: Seahawks -170, Patriots +142: Seahawks

O/U: 44.5: Over

New England Patriots 2026 Mock Draft 2.0

2026-04-20T10:00:00.004-04:00

What? Another Mock Draft already? After months of sloth-like behavior I put up two in a matter of days?

Like I had explained with Mock Draft 1.0, my New England Patriots 2026 mock draft was long overdue. With less than a week to the NFL Draft, why not get another mock draft up? It’s not like I haven’t been researching players and running mock drafts since the end of February, and since then I’ve run well over 200 mock drafts for the Patriots.

NFL Free Agency and any player trades (wink-wink A.J. Brown wink-wink) are basically on hold until the post-June 1st league year reset (no compensatory pick penalties in free agency after that date), the draft is front and center right now for adding important pieces to the roster.

Once again, you can tune in to YouTube live on draft night (April 23rd at 7:30PM ET) for the Sports Krunch with DKrom 2026 NFL Draft Livestream. Join us here for instant reaction and analysis of all 32 picks live on Thursday night!

Check out my Patriots Mock Draft 1.0 that went up on Sunday, 4/19.

2025 Draft Recap:

The New England Patriots’ front office and head coach Mike Vrabel hit a grand slam in the 2025 NFL Draft as they positioned the team to take a huge step forward towards contention.

New England added two key starters to the offensive line (Will Campbell and Jared Wilson), a pair of big play offensive weapons (TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams who combined for 13 touchdowns in 2025), and a defensive stalwart in Craig Woodson in the fourth round who played at Pro Bowl level as a rookie. Seventh-round pick tackle Marcus Bryant stayed on the roster as a developmental prospect and could step in as a swing tackle in 2026.

Add in they grabbed a dependable young strong-legged kicker and a long snapper for the special teams unit and this was a spectacular draft. Even the players who did not contribute much, such as Joshua Farmer, Bradyn Swinson and Kobee Minor, made the roster and all have a chance to contribute in 2026 in the defensive rotation or special teams.

(2025 Draft recap courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com)

After the disastrous drafts of the 2020s, the Patriots desperately needed an influx of young talent. Now the pressure is back on Vrabel, and the front office draft braintrust of Eliot Wolf, Ryan Cowden, John Streicher, Matt Groh, Alonzo Highsmith and Director of college scouting Tony Kinkela and his team to duplicate that 2025 draft impact while picking at the bottom of the round instead of near the top of each round.

Team Needs:

High Priority:

Edge Rusher - Perhaps the highest priority as veterans Harold Landry and Dre’Mont Jones are the starters but a dynamic speed rusher is desperately needed after 2025 fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson showed little last season.

Right Tackle - Morgan Moses is still going strong, but swing tackle Vederian Lowe left in free agency Thayer Munford was not brought back. Right now, 2025 seventh-round draft pick Marcus Bryant is next up at right tackle.

Tight End - Hunter Henry is over 30 and in the last year of his contract. Free agent Julian Hill is a blocker-only. This is a deep class and they should be able to get a pass-catching tight end on day two or early on day three.

Nose Tackle - Not re-signing Khyiris Tonga before free agency began was a strategic mistake as Kansas City swept in and scooped up the run-stuffer at almost twice as much as the contract New England almost had him signed before talks broke down. The run defense was not the same without Tonga on the field. The good news? Some big run stuffers should be around on day three.

Medium Priority:

Safety - Kevin Byard is an upgrade for Jaylinn Hawkins, but on the wrong side of 30, New England needs another young safety to develop to play next to last year’s fourth-round pick Craig Woodson for the foreseeable future.

Cornerback - Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis were a top duo last year, but after Alex Austin flamed out, there is a need for a young cornerback to develop to replace Davis in 2027.

Inside Linebacker - Robert Spillane was one of the best free agent signings of 2025 as he transformed the defense and brought much-needed toughness and tackling prowess. When he was out injured, though, the back-ups were not up to snuff. With Jahlani Tavai gone in free agency, a young player to develop is needed.

Guard - Free agent Alijah Vera-Tucker should be an instant upgrade, but Mike Onwenu is in his last year of his contract and developing a replacement for 2027 is a need.

Low Priority:

Wide Receiver - While free agent Rome Doubs replaces Stefon Diggs and the offense is counting on 2025 third-round draft pick Kyle Williams to step-up in year two, it is possible that none of Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins will be back in 2027.

Running Back - Rhamondre Stevenson and 2025 second-round draft pick TreVeyon Henderson are a solid one-two punch, but depth is needed behind them.

Quarterback - Tommy DeVito is the back-up to Drake Maye, but a young, developmental third quarterback is a must.

Mock Draft 2.0:

Like previous years, I use PFSN (Pro Football Network’s NFL Mock Draft Simulator https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft) as it is the most stable and accurate without the wacky and unrealistic trades that some of the other sites have on their simulators.

New England has ten picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. They have an extra fourth-round draft pick and three extra sixth-round draft picks. While they could conceivably make all ten picks with the need for depth at so many positions on the roster, many expect those extra picks will come in handy if they need to trade-up to nab a player at a position of need.

OK, let’s get this second Mock Draft under way!

Round One (#31 overall): TRADE UP

As the mock draft unfolded, ultra-athletic tight end Kenyon Sadiq dropped out of the top-twenty picks, which was a surprise. However, reaching out to Pittsburgh and the Chargers at #21 and #22 overall gave a dose of reality as to the cost of moving up ten spots in the first round. While I would love to have Sadiq, the Patriots are not one player away and need picks to be able to add depth on both sides of the ball.

That said, when he dropped past #25 overall, the allure was too strong to resist. This is a top-15 talent in this draft, inexplicably tumbling down the board. With Hunter Henry in the last year of his contract and turning 32 years old next year, adding the top tight end in the draft is a no-brainer.

With San Francisco on the clock at #27 overall, I offered them an extra fourth and the lowest of the four sixth-round picks. San Francisco snapped up the extra picks and New England was on the clock.

Trade Details:

New England receives Pick #27 from San Francisco in exchange for Pick #31, their second fourth-round selection at Pick #131 and their fourth sixth-round selection at Pick #212.

Round One (#27 overall):

Edge rushers Keldric Faulk and Akheem Mesidor were long gone, and a run on wide receivers had injured Chris Bell from Louisville at the top with a medical flag. Right tackle Blake Miller and Arizona State tackle Max Iheanachor were both still available, but I was trading up for a top-15 player.

Sadiq is six-foot-three and 241 lbs. And ran a sub 4.40 forty-yard dash at the combine. He had 13 catches last year for over 20 yards as he can run any route and his speed and strength make him a big play weapon. Just 21 years old, there is room to grow and develop as a receiver and blocker. This is the type of offensive weapon who Drake Maye can take to another level in the pros.

PICK: KENYON SADIQ, TE - Oregon

Round Two (#63 overall):

As unrealistic it is for Sadiq to drop outside the top-25, weird things happen on draft day sometimes. In the second round, there are a few intriguing players on the board. I love Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price, but drafting another running back in round two for a consecutive season seems like a bad idea.

Defensive tackle Lee Hunter from Texas Tech is available and would be an ideal space eater to stuff in the middle of the defensive line. The offensive line could use a developmental tackle and short-armed Northwestern tackle Caleb Tiernan would give the Patriots a pair of T-Rexes on the edges blocking for Drake Maye for the future.

However, with a need at edge rusher--particularly a pass rusher who can explode to the quarterback--having Oklahoma speed rusher R. Mason Thomas, who has been storming up mock draft boards, available at #63 overall is a pleasant surprise. A position of need and a twitchy edge rusher seems like a match made in heaven.

There are multiple trade offers popping on my screen as I make the pick that I completely ignore. Need plus value is a beautiful thing to see in a mock draft and although a slight reservation about Thomas being just six-foot-two and 242 lbs. Is alleviated by remembering the highlights of his quickness around the corner and power at the point of attack.

PICK: R. Mason Thomas, EDGE - Oklahoma

Round Three (#95 overall): TRADE UP

Okay, this is getting a bit ridiculous. Into the eighties in round three and Lee Hunter, the Texas Tech defensive tackle is still undrafted. A call to Green Bay at #84 overall nets me their pick in exchange for my two highest of the three remaining sixth-round draft picks.

Trade Details:

New England receives pick #84 from Green Bay in exchange for pick #95 and two sixth-round picks at pick #191 and pick #198

Round Three (#84 overall):

This mock draft is crazy with the talented players inexplicably dropping. Without nose tackle Khyiris Tonga in the lineup last season the Patriots struggled to stop the run. Lee Hunter is a plug-and-play big run-stuffer who is still developing as a pocket pusher.

He can penetrate into the backfield and blow up opposing running backs and can impact on early downs. With the sneaky need and my final top-50 prospect still on the board, a couple of extraneous late picks are well worth the price to move up

PICK: LEE HUNTER, DT - TEXAS TECH

Round Four (#125 overall):

Dallas with a trade offer to move up and fill in some gaps, but I like the board where I am and tell Jerry Jones to take his crazy somewhere else.

Down to just one fourth-round pick and already having picked up an offensive playmaker and two defensive linemen, I turn my attention to the massive tackle sitting right where I hoped he would be for me.

Miami’s Markel Bell stands six-foot-nine and weighs in at 346 lbs. There are no short arms here as he ate up defenders and did not allow a sack all season. He is a developmental prospect only starting for less than two seasons at Miami, but his size, surprising athleticism and power make him an ideal chunk of clay for offensive line coach Doug Marrone to develop for the 2027 season at right tackle.

PICK: MARKEL BELL, OT - Miami

Round Four (#131 overall): TRADED

Round Five (#171 overall):

At this point of the mock draft, I’ve hit on all four of my biggest needs for the Patriots in the 2026 NFL Draft and am looking for a developmental player or someone inexplicably dropping.

New England looks set at cornerback with an impressive trio of starters in budding superstar Christian Gonzalez, veteran Carlton Davis and slot cornerback Marcus Jones, but behind them there is very little depth. In addition, Davis is in the last year of guaranteed money in 2026.

Georgia’s Daylen Everette is a solid starter who played primarily on the right side. A highly rated recruit out of high school, he was All-SEC for two seasons but had underwhelming stats last year after being everywhere making impact plays in 2024.

He has decent length and ran a sub 4.40 forty yard dash at the combine, so there is plenty of speed. Getting a solid backup cornerback to develop as a future starter is just what you’re looking for in the fifth round of a draft.

PICK: DAYLEN EVERETTE, CB - GEORGIA

Round Six (#191 overall): TRADED

Round Six (#198 overall): TRADED

Round Six (#202 overall)

Going back to the University of Miami and staying in the secondary, Jakobe Thomas is a playmaking safety who had 3.5 sacks, a pair of forced fumbles, 11 passes defended and five interceptions and was named Fiesta Bowl MVP.

Capable of being a special teams demon in a worst-case scenario. He can get out of control and miss tackles going full-bore and he does not have great speed, which is likely what is pushing him down the draft boards (he ran a 4.57 forty-yard dash at the Miami pro day).

Despite his warts, he is a potential fit in the secondary.

PICK: JAKOBE THOMAS, S - MIAMI

Round Six (#212 overall): TRADED

Round Seven (#247 overall):

This was not a deep draft at linebacker as other than the trio of Sonny Styles, Jacob Rodriguez and CJ Allen, there were a lot of day three rated linebackers. With the lack of impact inside linebackers lately in the last few years, more teams are in need at the position.

New England has solid starters in Robert Spillane and Christian Ellis with special teams ace K.J. Britt brought in to replace Jahlani Tavai, there is a definite need for depth at linebacker (even though I am a HUGE Chad Muma fan and was stoked he was signed to the practice squad/futures contract last year).

Red Murdock is a small school linebacker who is strong and a sure tackler who was excellent at forcing fumbles. He has question marks in coverage with a lack of ideal speed. Tough as nails, he played through torn ligaments in his ankle and had surgery after the season.

Physical and tough--that sounds like a Mike Vrabel guy to me.

PICK: RED MURDOCK, LB - BUFFALO

RESULTS/FINAL THOUGHTS:

27. Kenyon Sadiq, TE - Oregon

63. R Mason Thomas, EDGE - Oklahoma

84. Lee Hunter, DT - Texas Tech

125. Markel Bell, OT - Miami (FL)

171. Daylen Everette, CB - Georgia

202. Jakobe Thomas, S - Miami (FL)

247. Red Murdock, LB - Buffalo

After a pair of trade-ups, I only ended up with seven selections in the draft (one in each round). However, my top four positions of need were met with the top four picks (just not in the order I would have expected).

I will be blunt, there is almost zero chance that Kenyon Sadiq will be available at pick #27 on Thursday night, as I doubt he gets past Tampa Bay at #15 as the absolute furthest he could fall (the Rams at #13, Baltimore at #14 and Tampa Bay at #15 are all in the conversation as they could use a play-making tight end). I could see him going as high as Washington at #7 overall if Tennessee or New York grab running back Jeremiah Love.

R Mason Thomas usually goes higher in mock drafts, but in this mock Gabe Jacas from Illinois and Cashius Howell from Texas A&M both went ahead of him, which was surprising to me.

The Lee Hunter free-fall was odd to me as well, as the mid-third round for a second-round graded defensive tackle was excellent value despite having to give up picks to move up.

The rest of the picks are projects, although Thomas and Murdock should contribute on special teams immediately. Everette could be in the mix as an injury replacement during the 2026 season, but Bell needs time in the weight room and hard coaching from Doug Marrone (in addition to being attached to veteran Morgan Moses throughout training camp).

The wide receiver position was clearly overdrafted in this mock draft (which does seem realistic, actually). I was definitely influenced by the Adam Schefter report of A.J. Brown of New England “likely” to acquire A.J. Brown after June 1st and moved wide receiver to the low priority with running back and quarterback.

New England Patriots 2026 Mock Draft 1.0

2026-04-19T13:17:00.002-04:00

Was the Super Bowl loss hangover? Could it just be the real world intervening? Maybe it was being caught up in March Madness? Perhaps the start of the Red Sox season, the Bruins’ fight to the playoffs or the Boston Celtics amazing season? Maybe, with a pick so low in the draft order for the Patriots in 2026 due to their amazing season, it’s harder to work up the enthusiasm?

Whatever the excuse, my New England Patriots 2026 mock draft is long overdue. With less than a week to the NFL Draft, it’s pretty late for this mock to go up. Not to say that I haven’t been researching players and running mock drafts. Since the end of February, I’ve run well over 200 mock drafts for the Patriots. (My lazy ass just didn’t write-up any mock draft articles!)

2025 Draft Recap:

The New England Patriots’ front office and head coach Mike Vrabel hit a grand slam in the 2025 NFL Draft as they positioned the team to take a huge step forward towards contention.

(2025 Draft recap courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com)

Team Needs:

High Priority:

Medium Priority:

Cornerback - Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis were a top duo last year, but after Alex Austin flamed out, there is a need for a young cornerback to develop to replace Davis in 2027.

Guard - Free agent Alijah Vera-Tucker should be an instant upgrade, but Mike Onwenu is in his last year of his contract and developing a replacement for 2027 is a need.

Low Priority:

Running Back - Rhamondre Stevenson and 2025 second-round draft pick TreVeyon Henderson are a solid one-two punch, but depth is needed behind them.

Quarterback - Tommy DeVito is the back-up to Drake Maye, but a young, developmental third quarterback is a must.

Mock Draft 1.0:

OK, let’s (finally!) get this long overdue Mock Draft under way!

Round One (#31 overall):

Not too many surprises on the simulated mock draft, other than Jeremiyah Love dropping to the Jets at #16 overall in the first round. While extremely unlikely, that does not impact New England’s position at #31 overall.

The expected run on offensive linemen and wide receivers took place in the teens and early twenties (a little early to trade up and wade into) and Clemson tackle Blake Miller went off the board at #28 to Houston but Kansas City snagging Arizona State right tackle Max Iheanachor hurts my soul as I was sure he would drop to #31 overall.

Having Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson still on the board opens up the possibility of a team looking to trade back. Instead, the trade generator is offering trade-ups from teams set at quarterback.

Green Bay made a trade offer to get into the first round, offering 2027 second and third-round picks and #52 overall to jump 21 spots to #31 overall (and the New Orleans 2027 sixth-round pick).

Houston offered picks #38 and #59 in the second round for #31 and a 2027 third-round pick and Jacksonville offered a 2027 second-round pick and #56 overall in the second-round and pick#100 late in the third round for #31 overall. None of these offers move the needle, although the thought of acquiring more 2027 picks is intriguing.

On the board, edge rusher from Missouri Zion Young is on the board along with Washington wide receiver Denzel Boston. A pair of intriguing defensive tackles who could step in at nose tackle in Kayden McDonald from Ohio State and Christen Young from Georgia are still available. Also, Tennessee cornerback Colton Hood and Clemson cornerback Avieon Terrell are still there. At inside linebacker, Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez and Georgia’s CJ Allen are there.

However, I have Denzel Boston as the best-available player and the six-foot-four wide receiver would give quarterback Drake Maye an elite Red Zone target (an area that New England struggled in last year ranking 17th in Red Zone TD%) with great hands and the ability to run any route as an outside receiver. While I may see edge rusher and offensive tackle as bigger needs, Boston being available at #31 overall is quite unexpected (Miami drafting Chris Bell from Louisville at #30 overall was a shock).

Powerful enough to fight off jamming wide receivers, willing to get dirty blocking and tough to bring down once he gets his hands on the ball, he would quickly be a favorite target for Maye. While not a burner, he pairs well with last year’s draft pick Kyle Williams to give New England three distinct receivers with Romeo Doubs being able to work from the slot in the Josh McDaniels offense.

PICK: DENZEL BOSTON, WR - WASHINGTON

Round Two (#63 overall): TRADE UP

With a run on edge rushers in the middle of the second round, I started to get antsy. With Pittsburgh at #53 overall still looking to add picks as they continue reloading their roster, I offered a fourth-round draft pick and the seventh-round draft pick to jump ten spots, which is a pretty perfect fit with the various trade value charts. They accepted.

New England Trade With Pittsburgh

Pick #63, Pick 131 and Pick 247 for Pick #53

Round Two (#53 overall):

The offensive tackle position has been picked clean and edge rushers are disappearing. While I would love to sit and wait to see if Georgia tight end Oscar Delp is available at #63, the lack of impact edge rushers left on the board spurred me to action. There is one edge rusher left that I have graded as a top-50 pick and the drop-off after him is steep.

Malachi Lawrence from UCF has good size at six-foot-four and 253 lbs., but he rushes with the quickness of a much smaller edge and ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at the combine. He is adept at forcing fumbles near the quarterback and an unlimited motor playing on both the left and right side.

Lawrence is a speed rusher who can still add some bulk and already is strong against the run. He’s an ideal fit for the Mike Vrabel defense.

PICK: MALACHI LAWRENCE, EDGE - UCF

Round Three (#95 overall):

Patience pays off this time. I was ready to move up again in the third round as a couple of decent prospects at positions of need were on the board unexpectedly in the mid-eighties. While tight end Justin Joly from NC State went to the Rams at #93 overall and linebacker Kyle Louis from Pitt went to Jacksonville at #88 overall, safety Jalon Kilgore was still on the board and remains as Miami took guard Kage Casey from Boise State at #94 ahead of the Patriots’ pick.

Safety Jalon Kilgore from South Carolina is a top-75 talent in this draft in my ratings, and he is a swiss army knife in the secondary able to play cornerback, nickel, and strong and free safety. He replaced Nick Emmanwori at South Carolina and shined in 2025 as he has a similar skill set as his former teammate.

Kilgore ran a 4.40 forty-yard dash at the combine and could learn a ton from Kevin Byard in 2026 and settle in as a starter next to Craig Woodson for years. This is a slam-dunk pick.

PICK: JALON KILGORE, S - SOUTH CAROLINA

Round Four (#125 overall):

Having traded away the other fourth-round draft pick, there is still flexibility for moving up with four sixth-round draft picks. However, with a wide receiver, an edge rusher, and a safety, the positions of need of nose tackle, tight end and offensive tackle are all in play.

Fortunately, a tight end to spend a redshirt season under Hunter Henry has dropped to the fourth round. Stanford’s Sam Roush stands six-foot-six and has good size (265 lbs.) and is a strong blocker, breaks tackles and is an above-average athlete who also contributed on special teams.

He can catch the ball as well, although he is still a bit raw as he played rugby rather than football initially. He needs development, but with a sky-high ceiling he can contribute on special teams as he develops and learns.

PICK: SAM ROUSH, TE - STANFORD

Round Four (#131 overall): TRADED

Round Five (#171 overall):

Day three and two key needs remain with nose tackle and offensive tackle. This was a weak draft for offensive tackles but the defensive tackle position is pretty deep. With a need at nose tackle, a big body in the middle is definitely a position that the Patriots can get a potential contributor at this point of the draft.

There was a mini-run at defensive tackle in the 160s, but fortunately the player I had my eyes on was still available and I didn’t need to trade up.

Clemson defensive tackle Demonte Capehart tips the scales at 313 lbs. and is six-foot-five. He may have been passed over due to being older (he’ll turn 24 years old in training camp) having played six seasons of college football.

However, Capehart is hard to move and powerful with long arms that allow him to disrupt passing lanes and wrap up ball carriers. He lacks pass rushing prowess beyond pushing the pocket back, but as a two-down tackle, he meets the needs of the Patriots. He could be able to rotate in with Cory Durden inside immediately in 2026.

PICK: DEMONTE CAPEHART, DT - CLEMSON

Round Six (#191 overall): TRADE UP

Time to take advantage of the South Coast connection and get Baltimore Ravens general manager (and Taunton High alumni) Eric DeCosta so I can get my hands on the offensive tackle in my sights. With four sixth-round picks, Baltimore was willing to take and couple sixth round picks as a slight overpay to move back after already making three fifth-round picks.

New England Trade With Baltimore

Pick #191 and Pick #202 for Pick #174

Round Five (#174 overall):

Moving up, I had a massive target in sight. Memphis offensive tackle Travis Burke stands almost six-foot-nine and weighed in at the combine at 325 lbs. The massive tackle plays with a nasty streak and has room to add mass on his massive frame.

As a prospect to put on the right side of the line eventually, Burke is an ideal candidate to draft and develop and have him follow Morgan Moses around all throughout the season and soak up knowledge. With an investment with former head coach Doug Marrone coaching the offensive line, Burke is raw clay for Marrone to mold and develop into a future starter.

PICK: TRAVIS BURKE, T - MEMPHIS

Round Six (#198 overall):

Down to two picks remaining after a pair of trade-ups, the Patriots have hit on some prospects at positions needing an influx of talent. Near pick #200, starters are few and far between, especially in a year with a weak group of players, and the hope is to grab a prospect with upside.

Having drafted a developmental tackle, I decided to give offensive line coach Doug Marrone with a prospect who could be a future guard. Texas A&M left tackle Trey Zuhn is expected to move inside to guard, despite only playing tackle and one game at center at college.

Zuhn is athletic and has a high football IQ. He only had one penalty his entire senior season and was a multi-year team captain. The Patriots should be able to mold him into a guard/center back-up with the possibility to potentially start in the future.

PICK: TREY ZUHN, G - TEXAS A&M

Round Six (#202 overall) TRADED

Round Six (#212 overall):

This is the final pick of the mock draft after trades, and I have two key defensive positions to fill so this will likely be one of those two spots. Fortunately, another older prospect is still on the board at inside linebacker.

Oregon inside linebacker Bryce Boettcher will be 24 years old in training camp after spending six years of college after playing baseball only his first two years as a Duck. A potential special teams ace, Boettcher has good speed and could develop into an early-down contributor.

PICK: BRYCE BOETTCHER, LB - OREGON

Round Seven (#247 overall): TRADED

RESULTS/FINAL THOUGHTS:

31. Denzel Boston, WR - Washington
53. Malachi Lawrence, EDGE - UCF
95. Jalon Kilgore, S - South Carolina
125.Sam Roush, TE - Stanford
171. DeMonte Capehart, DT - Clemson
174. Travis Burke, OT - Memphis
198. Trey Zuhn III, OC - Texas A&M
212. Bryce Boettcher, LB - Oregon

As far as meeting the team positional needs, this mock draft checked off edge rusher, offensive tackle, tight end, defensive tackle, safety, linebacker, guard and wide receiver. I would have loved to add a cornerback, running back and quarterback, but those will have to be filled via undrafted free agency and sifting through the remains of free agency.

The top three picks in the mock draft would all be able to contribute in 2026 with developmental prospects to fill in some needs to develop for 2027.

After the success drafting last year helped lead to turnaround with New England winning the AFC East and representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, another strong draft can keep them in the thick of the AFC teams competing to go to Super Bowl 61.

Super Bowl 60 - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2026-02-08T09:16:00.002-05:00

Patriots vs. Seahawks.

Just the way everyone predicted before the season started that the Super Bowl match-up would go.

No Mahomes. No Allen. No Saquan. No Lamar. No Stafford. No Dak (just kidding).

No Eagles. No Chiefs. No Bills. No Ravens. No Rams. No Cowboys (just kidding again).

For all the "lack of star power" maybe it is time for the NFL to look itself in the mirror and ask "On what planet are two teams with Drake Maye, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, Leonard Williams, Nick Emmanwori, Devon Witherspoon, Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez lacking star power?"

The real answer is that neither of these two teams have been regulars going deep in the playoffs the last few years, and neither had much media attention before the season. In fact, both teams had minimal national media exposure prior to the playoffs this season and for much of the general viewing population, these are teams that their own fans watched regionally with the D-Team announcers.

Out with the old. In with the new, I say.

Of course, New England and Seattle faced off a decade ago with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Darrelle Revis, Malcolm Butler, the Legion of Boom, Beast Mode, Russell Wilson and more in a battle of the unmovable object (Seattle Defense) against the Unstoppable Force (New England Offense) in a classic Super Bowl.

While most of America has no issue with Seattle, they HATE the New England Patriots. No Brady, no Gronk, no Belichick, no matter--the hate is real. Why should 31 other fan bases care that kids in kindergarten in New England can't remember a Patriots Super Bowl? Like post-Spygate and Deflategate, the NFL Nation has decided that the Patriots and their fans have not suffered enough.

Which is great for betting on the Super Bowl. Las Vegas is cleaning up on bets for Seattle as they roll in across the nation, giving great odds to the Patriots. It's almost a crime NOT to take the points.

I will go further than that. This Seattle defense is great, but not as great as Houston's. They are versatile, they are fast, they are stout up front, they have great pass defenders, but they have not had to deal with an offense like Josh McDaniels' Erhardt-Perkins offense that will take this cover-two/cover-four/cover-six zone all day.

Take the points. Take the over. Cash in.

Picks Recap:

Much like NFL teams, I've stepped up my game in the playoffs and cashed in some sweet parlays.

Conventional wisdom (aka commentators paid a ton of money to not do any research and make idiotic comments) has this as a low-scoring Super Bowl and Seattle to cover. Sure, that's what Las Vegas wants you to think. Don't throw your money away.

Each week during the season, I made my picks for every NFL game with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and many appearances pre-pandemic as well).

While David and I took a well-deserved break this week, we both channeled our inner-Public Enemy and said "Don't Believe the Hype" (I know I am dating myself with this reference, but I don't care if everyone knows I was born in the 1970s), both picking the Patriots to upset the heavily favored Seahawks.

We will be getting ready for free agency and the draft still, so the NFL content is going to be plenty of content all offseason. Please bookmark the site and give a listen on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

PLAYOFFS AND REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

Wild Card Weekend Last Week: Straight up: 2-0; Against the Spread: 1-1

Playoffs Totals: Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 10-2

Regular Season Totals: Straight up: 170-103-1; Against the Spread: 131-140-3

Playoff and Season Totals: Straight up: 180-105-1; Against the Spread: 141-142-3

Now, on to the SUPER BOWL pick!

2025 NFL Super Bowl Pick:

PATRIOTS 27 vs SEAHAWKS 24

Spread: Seahawks -4.5: Patriots
Moneyline: Seahawks -230, Patriots +190: Patriots
O/U: 45.5: Over

W2W4: New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks - Super Bowl 60

2026-02-08T08:13:00.004-05:00

The New England Patriots are in the Super Bowl.

For the first time since February 3, 2019 at the conclusion of the 2018 season, the New England Patriots will be back in the Super Bowl as they face the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl 60.

It has been a bizarre journey since Super Bowl 53 when Sony Michel ran in from the two yard line to score the only touchdown of the game and break a 3-3 tie in the fourth quarter and give New England a 10-3 lead. Stephen Gostkowski added an insurance 41-yard field goal to make it a 13-3 final.

The Patriots went through the 2019 season starting 8-0 and finishing 12-4 as they endured the full Antonio Brown experience and trotted out Phillip Dorsett, Mohamed Sanu, Josh Gordon and undrafted rookie free agent Jakobi Meyers outplaying first round draft pick N’Keal Harry behind Juilan Edelman and Rob Gronkowski walking away from the team that season. They were eliminated from the playoffs by Mike Vrabel’s Tennessee TItans.

The 2020 season saw the unthinkable happen as Tom Brady walked away from the Patriots. This is what should be keeping Robert Kraft out of the Hall of Fame. Kraft waffled and worried instead of realizing the need to reset. He should have kept Brady at any cost, convinced Belichick to step aside and take a Bill Parcells type of “President of Football Operations” job, promoted Josh McDaniels to head coach, and talked Gronkowski into returning for one more run in 2020.

Instead, Jarrett Stidham couldn’t beat out a washed up Cam Newton, Edelman blew out his knee, the Patriots stepped aside for Sean McDermott, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East finishing 7-9 while playing in empty stadiums due to Covid-19 restrictions and Brady and Gronkowski won the Super Bowl for Tampa Bay.

The 2021 season brought a glimmer of hope as rookie Mac Jones pushed Newton into retirement, McDaniels steered the rookie with a deft hand as Jakobi Meyers and free agents Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry revitalized the passing game (the less said about Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith, the better) and the season peaked in early December with a Monday win over the Bills in Buffalo in the “Wind Game” as New England improved to 9-4 as Jones threw just three passes in the 14-10 win.

New England collapsed down the stretch, though, and finished 10-7 and a wild card. Sean McDermott, Allen and Stefon Diggs enacted their revenge in the Wild Card round with Allen throwing five touchdown passes and Buffalo never punting as they crushed the Patriots 47-17.

The 2022 season began the descent into mediocrity. McDaniels has hired as head coach of the Raiders, and Robert Kraft failed to rein in Belichick, as instead of hiring a young and innovative offensive coordinator, he entrusted the job to his cronies Matt Patricia and Joe Judge (who had been fired as head coach of the Lions and Giants respectively and were brought in at bargain basement prices since they still had guaranteed money from those head coaching contracts).

As expected, it was a disaster. Fans caught “Zappe Fever” as Jones was injured at the end of a gutty performance losing to Baltimore in week three. The frustrating season saw the Patriots finish 8-9 and were a mess on offense.

The 2023 season saw the Patriots bring in Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator (although never confirmed, it was likely against Belichick’s wishes) but by then Jones was a shell of himself and Zappe was exposed as a noodle-armed career backup. The offensive line was a mess, there were no impact players on offense and although the defense was seventh in yards allowed, it was held together by aging veterans as the Patriots dropped to 4-13.

By the 2024 season, Belichick was let go (regardless of what the press release and sham press conference indicated) and an overmatched Jerod Mayo was thrust into the head coach role. Jacoby Brissett handed the torch to rookie Drake Maye but second-round draft pick Ja’Lynn Polk joined the “wide receiver bust” club and the washed up defense and clown-showing coaching staff saw Maye’s rookie year wasted as they again finished 4-13.

Amazingly, with Mike Vrabel and competent adults running the coaching staff and front office, the Patriots finished 14-3 and beat three top-five defenses in the playoffs to reach the Super Bowl to face the Seattle Seahawks.

In that miasma of mediocrity, the AFC sent the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to the Super Bowl in 2019 and 2020 before Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals knocked them off in the AFC Championship game in 2021.

It was more of the same as Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid went to the next three Super Bowls. They defeated the Eagles and 49ers before losing to the Eagles last season. Most pundits assumed before the season that the AFC would again send the Chiefs to the Super Bowl.

If not Mahomes and Reid, most figured that one of the superstar quarterbacks in the conference such as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Josh Allen and the Bills, Joe Burrow and the Bengals or C.J. Stroud and the Texans would be the ones to pull a “Cincinnati 2021” and sneak into the Super Bowl.

However, the Chiefs faltered long before Mahomes tore his ACL and MCL and was lost for the season. Cincinnati was a mess on both sides of the ball as Joe Burrow tore a tendon in his toe in week two and the Bengals’ season was torpedoed despite bringing in Joe Flacco and Burrow’s return in week 12.

Lamar Jackson had a litany of injuries that derailed his season and the Ravens suffered a devastating loss to Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh in week 18 that saw them miss the playoffs alongside the sputtering Bengals and Chiefs. In their best chance without the trio of terrors that derailed them so many times in the previous season, Buffalo ended up a wild card team playing on the road as they finished second in the AFC East and then fell in the playoffs to the Denver Broncos in overtime.

Instead it is Drake Maye and the Patriots representing the AFC again in the Super Bowl and facing off against the Seattle Seahawks, who are without question the strongest team in the NFC. With a smothering defense and big-strike offense, the Seahawks and Patriots are mirror-images as they combine hard-hitting defenses with dynamic offensive play calling.

Last Game:

Last week the Patriots won in the AFC Championship game against the Denver Broncos in a defensive struggle that turned into a game of attrition in the fourth quarter as blizzard conditions changed the entire tenor of the game by the end. As fans in New England watched a blizzard dumping over a foot of snow outside their window, the Patriots held on for a 10-7 win.

After the fans had to listen to bozos yapping about strength of schedule all season long because the fans and media in 31 other NFL markets struggled with their own insecurities as well as the resurgence of the New England Patriots, the Patriots’ defense again dominated another offense as the offense did just enough to pull out a hard-fought victory against a top-five defense.

This wasn’t a flashy, high-scoring game like the NFC Championship game was on Sunday night. It wasn’t about a high-flying offense passing for 300 plus yards and multiple touchdowns. This game was a bare-knuckle battle and the Patriots, like they have throughout the playoffs, fought and played a complete game to earn the victory.

Look, to be blunt, everything else that has happened this season doesn’t matter. Strength of schedule, Wild Card round, Divisional round, Conference championship round: all that matters is the one game left in the NFL season.

Both Seattle and New England won last week in close games in completely different fashions: the perpetually underrated Patriots’ defense had their third consecutive dominating performance in the postseason; the Seahawks’ vaunted defense held at the six-yard line after a 14 play fourth quarter drive with a four-point lead.

Forget the past--what Seattle did playing the Rams for the third time this season is meaningless against the Patriots and what New England did in the mile high atmosphere with wind and cold and snow means nothing with a game played two weeks later in sunny San Francisco.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

This year the Super Bowl will be broadcast by NBC and can be seen in the Boston area on NBC 10 Boston and in the greater Providence area on WJAR-10. Fans can stream the Super Bowl on Peacock (which I will be doing on multiple devices since it will have Multiview). Mike Tirico will handle play-by-play duties with Cris Collinsworth as the color analyst. Melissa Stark and Kaylee Hartung will work from the sidelines.

The Super Bowl will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. The best announcer on the planet, Kevin Harlan, will call the game while Patriots-hater and former Rams quarterback Kurt Warner will whine about getting his ass-kicked by Willie McGinest and Ty Law in Super Bowl 36 and how it must have been due to cheating and not great players and great coaching.

98.5 The Sports Hub serves the greater New England area as the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network. The network partners with 32 stations across New England to broadcast the game (and WHTK-1280AM in Rochester, NY).

Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” and mid-day show host Scott Zolak, who will provide his usual unique brand of color analysis, and God only knows if he will sober up in time for the game after running wild on Radio Row all week.

Key Stats:

New England Patriots

The Patriots offense finished second in points scored (490) and third in yards (6,449) in 2025 (all statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted). They averaged 6.2 yards per play on offense led by the fourth most passing yards (4,258) and 31 passing touchdowns. The running game added the sixth-most rushing yards (2,191) and 4.4 yards per rush.

The Patriots have been hurt by turnovers at times, and finished the regular season ninth in turnovers with 16. They were 18th with eight lost fumbles and fourth with just eight interceptions.

New England’s defense was 19th in forcing turnovers with just 19. They were 10th in fumbles forced, with nine. They were 18th in the league with ten interceptions.

In the playoffs so far, they have outscored their opponents 44-19 over two games. Although New England turned the ball over twice against Los Angeles and three times (if you count the Hail Mary interception before halftime) against the Texans. However, the defense forced just one turnover against the Chargers, the Texans coughed it up five times as C.J. Stroud threw five interceptions.

Seattle Seahawks

The defense finished first in the entire league with the fewest points allowed (292) and were sixth in the league in yards allowed (4,860). They allowed just 4.6 yards per play and were tenth in the NFL allowing just 3,297 passing yards. They were also seventh with just 20 passing touchdowns allowed. The run defense allowed the third-fewest yards (1,563) and the second-fewest rushing touchdowns (9) while allowing a league best 3.7 yards per rush.

Seattle’s defense was sixth in forcing turnovers with 25. They were 18th in fumbles recovered with seven. They were ball-hawks finishing fifth in the NFL with 18 interceptions.

In the playoffs so far, they only had to play two games being the top seed of the NFC. They blew the doors off an overmatched 49ers team, winning 41-6 in the Divisional round. In what was a much higher scoring game than anyone anticipated, the Seahawks held off the Rams in the NFC Championship game winning 31-27.

In the NFC Championship game, the Rams rushed for over 100 yards and passed for 374 yards piling up almost 500 total yards against the strong Seattle defense. The Seahawks’ offense had to step up and gain almost 400 total yards as wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had to carry the offense once again.

NE Offense vs SEA Defense

For the fourth straight week the New England Patriots will face a dominant defense. The Seahawks are built more like the Chargers than the Texans or Broncos on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, call Seattle the defense that the Chargers were hoping to have this season.

The New England offense has been very quiet in the postseason and lulled the analysts and talking heads to sleep, and much like with Deflategate a decade ago, they don’t seem to understand how various cold weather systems affect the game on the field. New England will play in temperatures above 40 degrees for the first time since week 12 in November in Cincinnati.

As happens just about every NFL season (do these so-called analysts do any research and analysis?), unless there is a dome team with home-field advantage, teams are going to have to adapt their explosive offense in the postseason with the cold, wind, snow and other weather conditions. Those who can, move on. Those who can’t (Los Angeles, Houston, Denver) go home.

Seattle’s defensive numbers are pretty daunting, but for all the chatter about the New England schedule, Seattle got to feast on their own version of the Jets (Arizona) multiple times this season and also faced quarterbacks Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Max Brosmer, Phillip “first game in five years” Rivers and the corpse of Kirk Cousins.

Yes, the Rams and 49ers were good teams, but what exactly were Buffalo and Baltimore (had Lamar Jackson and had won six of their last eight playing New England at home)?

Seattle hasn’t played a team out of the NFC West since December, so there’s also something where the offensive style of the Patriots’ offense comes into play being outside of the Shanahan/Kubiak offensive tree. For the Seahawks, the Patriots’ offense is going to be a huge adjustment as the Erhardt-Perkins system is really only run in New England, Buffalo and Detroit

Pass Offense:

Credit head coach Mike McDaniel for the work he has done turning around the Seattle defense--especially the pass defense that withered under Pete Carroll and bottomed out in 2023. Like Mike Vrabel did in New England, McDaniel’s drafting, free agent and trades have rebuilt the front six and plugged in key pieces in the secondary.

With a disciplined scheme in place that has players fully bought in, McDaniel’s unit hit its stride and rocketed to the top upper echelon of defense in 2025.

Rather than investing in a single, dominant pass rusher, the Seahawks generate pressure from multiple spots. No player has more than seven sacks, and pressure up front with the zone shells behind give the Seattle secondary and linebackers the ability to make plays on the ball or force underneath passes to clean up.

DeMarcus Lawrence (six sacks) and Uchenna Nwosu (seven sacks) rush from the edge with former disappointing high draft picks Boye Mafe (two sacks) and Derick Hall (two sacks) the depth rushers. Inside, old friend and former Jets star Leonard Williams (seven sacks) remains a dominant force on the other side of 30. He teams with second-year stud Byron Murphy (seven sacks) to form a pocket-pushing presence inside. The last of the Legion of Boom, Jarran Reed (2.5 sacks) at age 33, is the depth interior lineman.

Seattle will not often blitz, but when they have it has been devastating. They will move their front and stunt and loop, and love to try and confuse showing pressure and dropping players out. With their shell coverage schemes, anyone could drop into coverage at any time often leaving just four or five rushers, but offenses confused as to who is rushing and who drops.

The Seahawks love to send speedy and undersized linebacker Drake Thomas (3.5 sacks) blitzing into the backfield to utilize his speed. While fellow linebacker Ernest Jones isn’t much of a blitzer, he is a key cog in the pass defense as his range in zone coverage is so important to the defense. In fact, he led the team with five interceptions.

In the secondary, the group are sure tacklers and zone coverage masters. Only the Chargers and Panthers played more zone than Seattle (80.4%) in 2025 per Sharp Football Analysis. Devon Witherspoon is the unquestioned number one cornerback and is unique in that he is capable inside and outside and splits his time almost equally inside, on the left and on the right.

That versatility is part of why the defense can spend so much time with extra secondary players on the field. Nickelback Nick Emmanwori is an excellent slot cornerback, a hard-hitting strong safety, and the weakside linebacker in the Seattle defense. Like Witherspoon, he can be anywhere at any time on defense.

Safety Coby Bryant (four interceptions) cleans up playing deep next to former Giant Julian Love, who has fit the defense like a glove since coming back from injury in December. Love and Bryant are usually the two-high safeties consistently throughout the game to eliminate deep, downfield throws.

The one weakness in the secondary are the boundary cornerbacks, Riq Woolen and Josh Jobe. Both are solid, but unspectacular. Last week the Rams hunted match-ups on the two and got big plays down the field multiple times. Jobe panics and grabs at receivers, which can result in big plays through a defensive pass interference call.

Seattle does well on third down, allowing just a 32.1% conversion rate which is tops in the NFL. In the Red Zone, they were fifth-best allowing touchdowns on just 50% of trips inside the 20 yard line (26 of 52).

For New England’s passing attack, a healthy Drake Maye playing in warm weather without snow, wind or freezing cold is a big advantage. Maybe it was the shoulder, maybe it was the level of the defenses being faced, maybe it was getting the two rookies on the left side of the offensive line back up to speed after injuries, but more than likely it was a combination of all of those--and the snow and the cold and especially the wind that caused problems.

With New England getting Mack Hollins back before the AFC Championship game, they have their full wide receiver room back. Efton Chism acquitted himself well with his opportunities, but as a blocker and a trusted target of Drake Maye, Hollins is an x-factor for New England on Sunday as his 25.5 yards per reception average in the postseason leads all receivers.

Fewer players will be more grateful for this opportunity than the veterans on a long road to the Super Bowl. One of them is wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Falling short in the championship round in Minnesota and Buffalo, his appreciation of the opportunity is already evident.

Despite the lack of gaudy numbers, Diggs is a first read often for Maye. Even against Denver where the opportunities in the passing game were limited, Maye looked to Diggs a team high six times and he converted them into five receptions.

Kayshon Boutte is another key target in the passing game. His amazing touchdown reception versus Houston in the divisional round is an immediate inclusion into a pantheon of pivotal postseason plays in New England. He leads New England with 147 receiving yards in the playoffs and will be counted on to contribute as he has all season making contested catches in the gaps of the zone coverage using his length and strong hands.

New England will continue to play Kyle Williams and he’s always an option for a deep shot. He only has one reception in the playoffs, but his vertical speed will be vital to put pressure on the Seattle safeties and open routes underneath for the other receivers.

The tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper along with running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson could be x-factors in the passing game. Seattle allows short passes and depends on strong tackling by their linebackers and safeties to limit yards after catch. This group can help get Maye easy completions and into rhythm early in the game.

On the offensive line, the attention is on the two rookies on the left side, as it has been all season. However, Garrett Bradbury, Mike Onwenu and Morgan Moses have been fantastic holding up in pass protection--especially in the playoffs.

While the sack numbers look bad on paper, in the past two games many of those have zero or one or two yard losses as Maye scrambles and gets down or gets out of bounds to protect the ball, aka coverage sacks not the fault of the offensive line.

Key Match-up: Stefon Diggs vs Devon Witherspoon & Nick Emmanwori

When Seattle drafted Nick Emmanwori with their second-round draft pick this year, I was amazed that the South Carolina Gamecock was still available as I had him rated as a top-twenty pick and possibly even higher. Instead, a trio of secondary players went ahead of him as Buffalo took Maxwell Hairston at 30th overall, Baltimore took Malaki Starks at 27th overall, and Denver took Jahdae Barron at 20th overall.

Emmanwori has transformed the Seattle defense and while Starks held his own, Barron and Hairston were huge disappointments. He wasn’t just one of the best rookies, he was one of the best defensive players overall. Fast, strong and a sure tackler, he is already a shut-down run defender, one of the best blitzers and a shutdown slot corner whose quickness lets him get his hands on the ball and make plays.

This week, both Emmanwori and Witherspoon are likely to spend a lot of time opposite Diggs in the slot. Expect New England to use motion to hunt for match-ups on cornerbacks other than Emmanwori and Witherspoon, especially for Diggs. The offense needs to get Diggs involved early and often to sustain drives and put pressure on the Seattle defense.

New England will have the opportunity to get easy yards on short routes as Seattle’s shell coverage tries to take away the deep ball. Diggs getting the ball on some short crosses and picking up yards after the catch is vital for the offense to move the ball consistently.

Run Offense:

While the national media writes off the New England running game and salivates wildly over the Seattle run game, let’s not forget that Rhamondre Stevenson has been playing some of his best football in the playoffs and earning the lion's share of the playing time after seemingly losing the number one back role to TreVeyon Herderson earlier in the season.

Stevenson got little credit for grinding out 71 yards on 25 carries against Denver, but as the weather forced a change in game plan, he continued to churn out yards against the strong Denver front. He only had 1.1 yards per attempt before contact meaning he ground out a lot of yards on his own through sheer will.

Stevenson had 70 yards on just 16 carries against the strong Texans defensive front in the divisional round after gaining 53 yards on just ten carries against the Chargers. Stevenson’s ability to force the Seattle linebackers and safeties to respect the running game is a key component of the offense to open up plays in the passing game down the field.

Seattle hasn’t faced a lot of mobile quarterbacks this year, so how they game plan for Drake Maye’s running ability will be fascinating. They have speed across the defense and play almost exclusively zone, so they may make no adjustments and count on eyes on the quarterback and individual tackling ability to mitigate his advantage running.

TreVeyon Henderson has disappeared after a rough game with just 25 yards rushing on 12 carries against the aggressive Texans. Last game in Denver, he was an afterthought with just four snaps on offense all game (defensive players Khyiris Tonga and Milton Williams combined for three offensive snaps).

Whatever game plan was used in the AFC Championship game is irrelevant coming into the Super Bowl now with weather no longer a factor. New England needs speed and explosives on offense and Henderson should be part of that game plan in the Super Bowl.

Seattle’s run defense is impressive, make no doubt, but after an all-world start to the season, it has tailed off in the second half as teams have been able to pick up yards on the ground. After holding six of their first seven opponents under 100 yards, since November just two of 12 teams were held under 100 yards rushing.

Seattle linebackers Drake Thomas and Ernest Jones are sure tacklers and have explosive speed. They count on Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams (and Jarran Reed and Brandon Pili) to occupy linemen inside and keep Thomas and Jones clean to shoot gaps and make plays. Murphy and Williams are strong and capable of penetration and blowing up plays in the backfield even when double-teamed.

Key Match-up: Mike Onwenu vs Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy

Taking a break from the entire media harping on the left side of the New England offensive line, for a minute let’s consider the right side. Mike Onwenu has quietly played at a Pro Bowl/All Pro level at right guard all season and through the playoffs and been a huge part of why the team has been able to get tough yards on the ground.

The lone holdover on the offensive line from 2024, Onwenu and right tackle Morgan Moses and center Garrett Bradbury have seamlessly transformed the offensive line without hardly any attention. Going up against the Chargers’ massive front with Teair Tart, Jamaree Caldwell and Da’shawn Hand, Houston’s run stuffers Sheldon Rankins, Tim Settle and Tommy Togiai, and Denver’s devastating pass rush duo of Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers, Onwenu and company have been solid.

Onwenu, per ProFootballFocus.com, has allowed just two pressures and zero sacks in the postseason. Seattle primarily lines up their best interior pass rusher Leonard Williams opposite the right guard. While he will see plenty of the impressive Byron Murphy as well, Onwenu being able to win up front and spring the running backs for positive yards to keep out of second and third and longs would be a huge advantage for the offense functioning better in the Super Bowl.

NE Defense vs SEA Offense:

The national media have once again disrespected the New England defense in the aftermath of the Conference round. All postseason, a defense that was among the top units in the regular season is relegated to another week of “There’s no way the New England defense can stop (insert playoff opponent here)” garbage stories. While this has been great for the Las Vegas oddsmakers taking in an avalanche of bets on New England’s opponents each week, it gets a bit nauseating as each week the narrative changes to “Oh, (insert playoff opponent here) was never any good, but look out this week!”.

The New England defense has been outstanding in the playoffs. Despite missing Harold Landry last week, they remained disruptive, made a huge Red Zone stop early in the game to swing momentum, and came up with a huge turnover on Denver’s final drive of the game to allow the offense to run out the clock and advance to the Super Bowl.

Inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr had been excellent stepping in with Terrell Williams away from the team dealing with prostate cancer treatment, and has continued to maximize the talent with timely blitzes and aggressive play calling with disguised coverages helping confuse opposing quarterbacks.

The Seahawks are similar to the Patriots in philosophy as they run the ball with heavy volume to set up big plays down the field in the passing game. While stylistically the two offenses are completely different (Erhardt-Perkins and Shanahan-Kubiak) they both have the same goal and go about it in very different ways.

Pass Defense:

The Patriots are hoping to add edge rusher and sack leader Harold Landry back to the defense on Sunday. If they can also get a healthy Robert Spillane, his presence in the middle of the defense as a zone defender and blitzer gives the defense a big boost.

New England will continue their trend of bringing pressure and disguising looks just as they have done throughout the playoffs against Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud and Jarrett Stidham to great effect. Stroud threw four interceptions last week completing just 20 of 47 attempts and finishing with a 20.0 passer rating.

The week prior, Herbert failed to reach the end zone while finishing with 120 net yards passing as he completed 19 of 31 attempts for 159 yards while being sacked six times for 39 yards lost and finishing with a 74.5 passer rating.

Last week, Jarrett Stidham was 17-31 for 133 yards, with a touchdown, an interception and a huge fumble lost. He had a 63.0 passer rating as the Broncos’ offense was held to six punts, missed two field goals, turned the ball over on downs in the Red Zone and turned the ball over twice while scoring just once all game.

Don’t worry, none of that had anything to do with the New England defense, per the national media. Herbert’s offensive line was the worst unit ever in NFL history, Stroud was overrated all along and is simply terrible quarterback, and Stidham--despite the confidence his head coach had in him--was barely a beer league level quarterback.

No disrespect to the Seattle offense, but this New England defense has been special in the postseason, stopping the run and smothering pass defenses. In three games, the Patriots have allowed just 629 total yards and 26 points over three playoff games. The vaunted Seattle defense has allowed 715 yards and 33 points over two playoff games.

As usual, the Patriots’ defense will be knocked by the talking heads and so-called analysts because they didn’t have to play the gauntlet of great quarterbacks like Seattle did facing Brock Purdy and the broken-down 49ers and Matthew Stafford and his over 800 yards passing allowed over the last two games he faced them.

New England is solid across the board. Harold Landry may be healthy enough to play and K’Lavon Chaisson has been excellent all postseason. Rookie Elijah Ponder and run-stuffer Anfernee Jennings have picked up the slack with Landry limited.

Jack Gibbons isn’t the pass defender that Robert Spillane is, but if Spillane can go it will be a boost to the New England interior pass defense. Seattle likes to work the middle of the field with tight ends AJ Barner and rookie Elijah Arroyo. Having Spillane out there alongside Christian Ellis is a big boost for the pass defense.

With Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones blanketing opposing wide receivers throughout the playoffs, the Seahawks will have a tough test against the New England secondary. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has had an amazing season, the Patriots are confident that all three starting cornerbacks will be capable of slowing him down in the Super Bowl.

Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards in the regular season and 1,793 went to Smith-Njigba. Seattle will line up the former Ohio State wide receiver anywhere in the formation to try and dictate match-ups. This year, he has upped his vertical game as he was featured more as a slot receiver and safety blanket before exploding on the scene in his third season.

Seattle brought in veteran Cooper Kupp to fill that third down/safety blanket slot receiver role. The crafty veteran can still make some plays, but he should see a lot of Marcus Jones in this game.

The Seahawks traded for explosive speedster Rashid Shaheed at midseason. His impact has been on special teams, as he had just 15 receptions in nine regular season games in Seattle. He is a vertical threat, and his 51-yard reception versus Los Angeles set the tone for the big-strike offense in the NFC Championship game.

Kenneth Walker has soft hands coming out of the backfield and is a good receiver. He is third in receptions and yards in the postseason for Seattle behind Smith-Njigba and Kupp.

The Seahawks’ passing offense has been boom or bust too often in 2025. They have seven games with less than 200 total yards passing. In the playoffs, the defense and special teams took the load off the passing offense letting Seattle get a lead early and grind away the depleted 49ers.

While the Seahawks were able to throw on the overrated Rams secondary, familiarity played a big role as well, with Darnold facing the Rams defense for the fourth time since January 2025 (and fifth time since October 2024). New defense, new wrinkles, and one of the best cornerback trios in the NFL should surprise Seattle’s faithful and the dismissive media.

Of course, if New England shuts down Seattle’s pass offense, I’m sure the story will switch to, “Darnold was fool’s gold all along and just another bum in the Patriots’ path.”

Key Match-up: DTs Christian Barmore and Milton Williams vs Gs Grey Zabel and Anthony Bradford

New England is going to have to generate pressure at some point without blitzing. Without Landry, the Patriots were at a disadvantage on the edge in Denver but got big plays with blitzes and with their “Big Dogs”, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, abusing All-Pro guard Quinn Meinerz and Ben Powers.

If Seattle has a weakness on the offensive line, it is up the middle. Rookie first-round draft pick left guard Grey Zabel has improved as the season has gone on, and been solid down the stretch while matching up for the second and third time this season against the Rams and 49ers defensive linemen. But this is an unfamiliar duo he will see, and the former North Dakota State Bison ranked 51st out of 81 guards overall and 59th in pass block grade per ProFootballFocus.com overall and could struggle seeing Barmore and Williams for the first time.

Right guard Anthony Bradford has been a liability all season long. A fourth round draft pick in 2023, he started ten games as a rookie and 11 games last year. However, he has struggled during his NFL tenure. This season Bradford ranks 70th of 81 guards overall in the NFL per ProFootballFocus.com and 76th of 81 in pass blocking.

Pressure is going to have to come up the middle and that means Barmore and Williams will have to earn those hefty paychecks. The opportunity is there for the Patriots to get pressure on Darnold and generate turnovers or get the Seattle offense off the field on third downs. This is a huge match-up that the New England defense must win.

Run Defense:

The New England run defense turned in its third consecutive standout performance of the playoffs in as many games in the AFC Championship game. The Chargers rushed for just 87 yards in the Wild Card game and the Texans managed just 48 in the divisional round. In a game starting their back-up quarterback, the Broncos desperately needed the running game to step-up (especially in the snowy second-half) but managed just 79 yards on 24 carries.

Those numbers are worse considering Justin Herbert had 57 of those 87 yards running for his life, C.J. Stroud had 11 of those 48 yards on scrambles and Jarrett Stidham had 23 of those 79 yards on just four carries. None of the three opponents were able to muster any kind of consistent running game against New England.

Denver’s lead backs RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin rushed 17 times combined for just 48 yards--and that was with Robert Spillane leaving the game due to injury in the first half.

The Seahawks have lead back Kenneth Walker, their 2022 second-round draft pick at running back. He was a 1,000 yard rushing topping four figures with 1,027 yards and a 4.6 yards per rush average.

Walker piled up 119 yards on the ground and three touchdowns against San Francisco in the Divisional round on 19 carries. Against the Rams, he managed just 62 yards on 19 carries but did add another rushing touchdown.

Behind Walker, the Seahawks lost co-lead back Zach Charbonnet, their 2023 second-round draft pick, in the divisional round against San Francisco. He had rushed for 730 yards and a dozen touchdowns this season, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt.

The concern for New England’s defense in the running game this postseason has been quarterbacks scrambling with Justin Herbert being the leading rusher for the Chargers in the Wild Card game, C.J. Stroud had the longest rush for the Texans and even Jarrett Stidham had success scrambling as averaged over 5.0 yards per attempt.

Darnold is very athletic and it is easy to forget about his running ability with the success he’s had staying in the pocket and making plays downfield in the past two seasons. He’s reined in the scrambling ability in Seattle, with less than a 100 yards on the ground for the season. He had just two games with 20 yards or more rushing, but in the past has legged over 50 yards per game running for his life.

For New England’s defense, the resurgence of the run defense occurred with the return to health of Milton Williams at the end of the season. Getting interior run-stuffer Khyiris Tonga back from injury in the playoffs brought another key cog to the run defense.

The final missing piece was middle linebacker Robert Spillane. While he was injured against Denver and has been limited in practice, the Christian Ellis and Jack Gibbens have both stepped up in his absence.

Spillane is more than a run-stopper and quarterbacks the defense. Gibbens is a pure run-stuffer, and Ellis has been very effective getting to the running back when the defensive line is able to tie up blockers. Cory Durden and Tonga have done yeoman’s work at the line of scrimmage and are two of the most unappreciated members of the defense.

Key Match-up: NT Khyiris Tonga vs C Jalen Sundel

Another week, another team with an offensive line that the pundits automatically give the edge to without any research, film study or analysis. Seattle is middle of the pack in run and pass blocking and center Jalen Sundell (a former North Dakota State Bison) fits right in ranking 19th of 40 qualifying centers per ProFootballFocus.com.

Khyiris Tonga’s return to health has been a huge story for the New England defense in the playoffs and against Denver in the AFC Championship game both he and defensive tackle Cory Durden wrecked Denver’s top-ranked by ProFootballFocus.com offensive line.

Tonga is huge, penetrates well, and the pending free agent has earned himself a huge paycheck this offseason, hopefully resigning in New England although he will likely get attention from other teams after such a strong playoff run. Christian Ellis and Robert Spillane have reaped the rewards of Tonga occupying space and letting them penetrate into the backfield and blow up the run game.

If Tonga overpowers Sundel and puts a clamp on the Seattle run game early and gets the offense one-dimensional, it puts even more pressure on Darnold and the passing game.

Other Factors:

The game is at a neutral site and the Road Warrior Patriots (9-0 on the road) are treating the game as if they are the visitors, even though they technically are the home team. In a weird stadium quirk, they will be in the visitor’s locker room as the home team at Levi Stadium in the Super Bowl but be on the home team side of the field.

None of that makes any sense, so of course the Patriots chose their road all-white uniforms for the Super Bowl.

The most important aspect is that the game is on grass, in warm weather and the Patriots get out of the cold, wind and snow for the first time in a month. Expect the New England passing game and Drake Maye’s downfield accuracy to improve dramatically with dry footballs, dry air and no elements affecting his throws.

Seattle has had a steady veteran kicker in the Pacific Northwest for seven years after the Adam Gase-led Jets disaster show let Jason Myers walk in free agency before the 2019 season. Myers has a strong leg and led the NFL in points hitting 41 of 48 field goals and all 48 extra points in the regular season.

New England counters with rookie Andres Borregales who shook off a rough start and has made 84.4% of his field goals and 53 of 55 field goals. Borregales missed a pair of longer field goal attempts in some terrible weather in Denver, but weather is not expected to be an issue this week in San Francisco.

Both kickers have strong legs and are accurate and are capable of making kicks out to 60 yards on Sunday.

The punters for both units have enjoyed relatively low workloads in the regular season. Bryce Baringer has had the return of the wounded duck in some of the cold and windy conditions in the playoffs, but has been solid overall and should be fine in San Francisco this Sunday.

Seattle has an Aussie booming high and long punts for them. Michael Dickson was named second team All-Pro this season with 20 of 52 inside the 20 yard line. He averaged 49 yards per punt and an excellent net yards per punt average of 42.2 yards. He had just three touchbacks all season.

With Marcus Jones back to return punts, Dickson needs to replicate his strong work in the playoffs so far where he’s allowed just seven total return yards on eight punts in the playoffs. He was a fifth round draft pick and a fixture in Seattle since 2018 and has been remarkably consistent since earning Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors as a rookie..

The coverage units for both teams are excellent as Brendan Schooler from New England earned All Pro on special teams last year in addition to making the Pro Bowl. Seattle has a number of impact special teamers including Jake Bobo and last week it was Dareke Young and Brady Russell who came up big on special teams.

Seattle was fourth in kick return coverage allowing 23.96 yards per return and New England was tenth at 25.34 yards per return (per The Football Database). Both teams had some struggles in punt coverage, however, as New England finished 23rd allowing 12.05 yards per return and Seattle was 31st allowing 15.53 yards per return. Both teams have allowed punt return touchdowns this season.

The returners are the stars for both of these special teams units.

Marcus Jones is clearly a top punt return threat and his fearlessness in returning almost any kick makes him a weapon, Seattle can counter with the explosive Rasheed Shahid Marvin Mims returning both punts and kicks.

New England is first in the NFL in punt return yards per return (17.29) while Seattle is third (15.45). Seattle has the edge in kick returns as they are third with a 27.98 average while New England’s motley crew of kickoff returners are middle of the pack with 25.46 and 19th in the league.

As far as coaches, Jeremy Springer has shown why he was the only holdover from the previous administration while Seattle’s special teams unit rolls with yet another Harbaugh, Jay Harbaugh. The son of Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh is in his second year as coordinator after working with Dad at Michigan.

This game is great because both teams have great coaches not only on special teams but on both sides of the ball. Mike Vrabel has been fantastic and so has Mike MacDonald. The only potential distraction could be Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak set to take over the Raiders after the game and has done interviewing and obviously could have his mind elsewhere during the week.

Game Pick:

The Patriots and Seahawks are both very similar teams. Both have an all-world young cornerback highlighting their defense with Christian Gonzalez and the perennially underrated Devon Witherspoon. While the Seahawks may have the better edge pass rushers, the Patriots’ defense has shown it can bring pressure, create turnovers, make stops on third down and was a top-ten unit during the season for a reason.

On offense, two innovative offensive minds in Sean Payton and Josh McDaniels makes for a pair of fun offenses to watch. New England has a clear advantage in the running game with Henderson and Stevenson, and neither team has a stable of big-name wide receivers. Both teams are strong on special teams as well.

The biggest question mark for Seattle is at the most important position. Sam Darnold balled out against Los Angeles in the AFC Championship game as he stepped up for the first time ever in a big game. Now the lights are even brighter and he will face a defense that he hasn’t seen four times in the past 14 months.

Drake Maye’s shoulder injury is a concern, but he didn’t look hurt at all on the perfect pass on the flea-flicker to Mack Hollins near the end of the third quarter versus Denver and then using his right arm to stiff-arm Jonah Ellis on the game clinching first down run.

Maye has been better under pressure than anyone else this season. He has played in rough conditions in the playoffs. Forget passing for just 86 yards against Denver. In each game in the playoffs he has faced top defenses and done whatever was necessary to get the win.

At this point, it comes down to whether Maye or Darnold has earned the trust. Darnold hasn’t played outside his own division in the playoffs yet. That alone is going to lead to an adjustment as he won’t have all the answers and familiarity against the Patriots’ defense on Sunday.

In the playoffs against loaded defenses, Maye has made adjustments and done enough to make big plays to win the game. Darnold finally stepped up in a big game, but can he do it again?

The National media has jumped on the “Seahawks are the best overall team” in their fervent desire to not see New England win another Super Bowl. While I understand that sentiment (especially in Buffalo), the Patriots have been meeting every test thrown at them and winning ugly.

I see the teams as pretty evenly matched. I just trust Drake Maye more than Sam Darnold with the game on the line.

PATRIOTS 27 vs SEAHAWKS 24

Spread: Seahawks -4.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Seahawks -230, Patriots +190: Patriots

O/U: 45.5: Over

NFL Conference Playoff Weekend - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2026-01-25T09:27:00.004-05:00

Patriots vs Broncos.

Rams vs Seahawks.

Just the way everyone predicted the Conference Championship games would be before the season started.

Two great games on Sunday and while the Midwest digs out and the Northeast gets buried by that snowstorm, what a perfect day to watch football (hopefully everyone has power/doesn't lose power on Sunday!).

Much like NFL teams, I've stepped up my game in the playoffs and cashed in some sweet parlays last week. Looking forward to doing the same again this week. I like the Patriots on the road against Jarrett Stidham and the Seahawks and the 12s holding off the Rams at beautiful Lumen Field (where I wish I was sitting in Sluggers for this game in my traditional booth there when I visit sitting under the Shawn Kemp #40 SuperSonics Jersey).

Check out this week’s episode as we recapped the Divisional Playoff round, handed out our weekly awards, checked in on the head coaches and assistants hired and fired, and of course all the game predictions and prognostications with our bold predictions for the AFC and NFC Championship games--it is available here.

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

PLAYOFFS AND REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

Wild Card Weekend Last Week: Straight up: 3-1; Against the Spread: 4-0

Playoffs Totals: Straight up: 8-2; Against the Spread: 9-1

Regular Season Totals: Straight up: 168-103-1; Against the Spread: 130-139-3

Playoff and Season Totals: Straight up: 176-105-1; Against the Spread: 139-140-3

Now, on to the Conference Championship Weekend picks!

2025 NFL Divisional Round Week Picks

AFC Championship Game Pick

Denver Broncos 13 vs. New England Patriots 24

Spread: Patriots -4.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -244, Broncos +199: Patriots

Over Under: 42.5 points: Under

NFC Championship Game Pick

Seattle Seahawks 27 vs. Los Angeles Rams 20

Spread: Seahawks -2.5: Seahawks

Moneyline: Seahawks -145, Rams +122: Seahawks

Over Under: 46.5 points: Over

W2W4: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - AFC Championship Game

2026-01-25T09:10:00.002-05:00

The New England Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game and one win from reaching the Super Bowl.

Let that sink in for a second.

After an interminable wait since January 20, 2019 when they defeated Patrik Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, the New England Patriots are back playing for the right to play in another Super Bowl.

Speaking of Kansas City, most assumed before the season that this AFC Championship game would again feature the Chiefs and one of the superstar quarterbacks in the conference such as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Josh Allen and the Bills, Joe Burrow and the Bengals or C.J. Stroud and the Texans.

Heck, many pundits tabbed the Steelers to have a renaissance adding future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers to their roster. However, the Chiefs faltered long before Mahomes tore his ACL and MCL and was lost for the season and Joe Burrow tore a tendon in his toe in week two which torpedoed the Bengals’ season despite his return in week 12.

Lamar Jackson had a litany of injuries that derailed his season and the Ravens suffered a devastating loss to Pittsburgh in week 18 that saw them miss the playoffs like the Bengals and Chiefs. In their best chance without the trio of terrors that derailed them, Buffalo ended up a wild card team playing on the road as they finished second in the AFC East and fell in the playoffs.

Instead it is Drake Maye and the Patriots facing off against the Denver Broncos, who are without their quarterback from that 2024 NFL Draft class as starter Bo Nix has been sidelined with a broken bone in his ankle that required surgery this week.

Instead, the “story” about this game focuses now on Denver back-up quarterback and 2019 fourth-round draft pick Jarrett Stidham. Stidham, once assumed to be the heir apparent to Tom Brady, was the back-up as a rookie behind Brady in current offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ offense in 2019.

In 2020 he lost out to Cam Newton in the starting quarterback training camp battle and dropped to third-string behind Brian Hoyer to start the season. In Mac Jones’ rookie season the next year, Stidham was the forgotten quarterback staying on injured reserve past midseason due to a back injury that he had surgery on in the offseason and he fell to third-string and never played the entire season.

In 2022, Stidham was reunited with McDaniels in Las Vegas as he joined the raiders as the back-up to Derek Carr and started a pair of games at the end of the season. He joined the Broncos in free agency and backed up Russell Wilson that year, again starting at the end of the year.

He remained in Denver when Sean Payton became head coach in 2024 and lost out to Nix in another training camp battle. He has been the back-up for two seasons without attempting a single pass in two years and now is suddenly thrust into the spotlight as the starting quarterback against the team that drafted him in the AFC Championship game.

Last Week:

Last week the Patriots won in the divisional round against the Houston Texans. After having to hear about strength of schedule all season long because 31 other NFL markets can’t handle the resurgence of the New England Patriots, the Patriots’ defense bloodied and bruised two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud while the offense overcame a flurry of turnovers to defeat a pair of top-ten defenses.

The Texans were ahead 10-7 in this game in the second quarter after they took advantage of a short field after a botched hand-off where Drake Maye tried to run up the middle and fumbled, giving Houston the ball at the New England 27 yard line.

New England’s first touchdown came after a key 13 yard catch by Stefon Diggs on third-and-fourteen as Houston brought a cover-zero blitz on fourth-and-one and Maye found DeMario Douglas on a crossing route and with no safety he jetted into the end zone for six points.

Both defenses were aggressive, hard-hitting and made plays in the run and pass game. Both Drake Maye and C.J. Stroud turned the ball over and had short drives resulting in punts.

New England punted eight times and and lost two fumbles (they had an interception on a hail mary on the last play of the first half which was completely harmless). Houston punted five times, was intercepted four times and lost a fumble.

The Patriots had three offensive touchdowns and a Marcus Jones pick-six to account for their 28 points. Houston had the one touchdown on the short field but otherwise settled for three field goals.

Ka’imi Fairbairn nailed a 51-yard field goal as Houston just started heaving the ball downfield trying to draw defensive pass interference calls to move the ball in desperation. That cut the New England lead to 21-16 headed to the fourth quarter.

Maye targeted Kayshon Boutte twice on the drive in single-coverage against All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley. The first was on third-and-eight as the Texans blitzed and was a blatant defensive pass interference penalty on Stingley in man-coverage that was far worse than the DPI called on Carlton Davis in coverage on the prior drive that set-up Houston in field goal range.

The second was the same play call, another go-route with man-coverage and no help as the Texans blitzed on third down again, and Maye laid out a perfect drop-in-the-bucket pass in the end zone that Boutte brought in with an amazing one-handed catch. The extra point made it 28-16 and the Patriots’ defense teed off on Stroud the rest of the way leaving that the final score.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

Nothing but the top teams now for the Patriots on television. This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally in the greater Boston area on WBZ-TV Channel 4 and in the greater Providence, RI area on WPRI-12. The excellent Jim Nantz will handle play-by-play duties with the highly paid but horrible to listen to Tony Romo as the color analyst. Tracy Wolfson and Evan Washburn will report from the sidelines.

Nantz and Romo called the week ten game against Tampa Bay, but otherwise the greater Boston and Providence area have been spared the constant “oohs” and “ahhs” and caveman grunts instead of actual commentary--which Patriots fans can get Scott Zolak on the local broadcast anytime. Fun drinking game: take a drink every time Romo shouts out some variation of “I don’t know, Jim!” throughout the game instead of actually making a comment.

This week's game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. Ryan Radtke will call the game with former NFL star Mike Golic providing analysis. Laura Okmin will work from the sidelines. Radtke did the week five Sunday night game against the Bills and the week 16 Sunday night game against the Ravens. Hopefully the third time is a charm with Radtke calling the Patriots.

Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci, between spots hawking Bigelow Tea, will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” and mid-day show host Scott Zolak, who will provide his usual unique brand of color analysis, but at least will be be a better listen than Romo!

Key Stats:

New England Patriots

The Patriots have been hurt by turnovers at times, and finished the regular season ninth in turnovers with 16. They were 18th with eight lost fumbles and fourth with just eight interceptions.

New England’s defense was 19th in forcing turnovers with just 19. They were 10th in fumbles forced, with nine. They were 18th in the league with ten interceptions.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos’ offense finished 14th in points scored (401) and tenth in yards (5,825) in 2025. They averaged 5.3 yards per play on offense and had the 16th most passing yards (3,807) and 25 passing touchdowns. The running game was also right in the middle of the pack with the 16th-most rushing yards (2,018) and averaged 4.4 yards per rush.

The Denver offense limited turnovers in 2025 with ranking 11th in the NFL with just 17 turnovers. They were sixth overall with just six lost fumbles for the season and 13th with 11 interceptions.

The Denver defense finished one spot ahead of the New England defense as third in points allowed (311) and were second in the league in yards allowed (4,730). They allowed just 4.5 yards per play and were seventh in the NFL allowing just 3,182 passing yards. They were also fourth with just 18 passing touchdowns allowed. The run defense allowed the second-fewest yards (1,548) and the fourth fewest rushing touchdowns (11) while allowing 3.9 yards per rush.

Denver’s defense was only 26th in forcing turnovers with just 14. They were 28th in fumbles recovered with four. They were 18th in the league with ten interceptions.

In the playoffs so far, they only had to play one game against Buffalo due to having the number one seed and a bye week. They outscored Buffalo 33-30 in what was a much higher scoring game than anyone anticipated. The defense forced five turnovers (three fumbles and two interceptions), easily a season-high, but still allowed the Bills to pile up 449 yards of offense, including a season-high 183 yards allowed on the ground.

The Denver offense had to step up against Buffalo, piling up 349 yards but only 70 rushing yards. However, they only had one turnover. But Bo Nix was both the leader passer (26-46-279-3-1) and rusher (12-29) for Denver in that win over Buffalo and is sidelined for the AFC Championship game.

NE Offense vs DEN Defense:

“Oh yeah, that easy schedule for the Patriots, but wait until you face a quarterback like Justin Herbert and a defense like the Chargers!”

Beat Chargers 16-3.

“Oh yeah, but wait until you face C.J. Stroud and a defense like the Texans--that’s a HISTORICAL defense!”

Beat Texans 28-16.

“Oh yeah, but wait until you face Sean Payton’s offense and the Broncos defense.

Enough already.

Look, it’s the playoffs. The only sure thing is when you have a bye week. All of these teams are good.

The Broncos have a very good defense and Vance Joseph is a mad genius who dials up blitzes and other exotic pressures. Denver plays the second-highest rate of man coverage (32.1%) and blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league (31.9%) per Sharp Football Analysis.

The Broncos were second in the NFL in third down defense (33.8% conversion rate), and were the top Red Zone defense (42.6% Red Zone touchdown rate allowed).

A great coach, a great scheme and a strong pass rush and one of the best coverage cornerbacks in the league in Pat Surtain Jr. This is a tough test for New England, but they are running the ball better and Drake Maye has stepped up in the second half of each game to make the big plays necessary to secure the win.

Pass Offense:

This is a strength against strength match-up as the Broncos have done well against opposing quarterbacks while the Patriots have one the best passing attacks in the NFL.

For all the criticism of the Patriots going 14-3 against weak competition, the Broncos have had their share of sub-par quarterbacks without the national media outcry that has been the storyline for New England this year.

The Broncos saw rookie Cam Ward in his first career NFL start and later faced Jake Browning before the elite Joe Flacco was brought in. They beat Justin Fields and also had Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett at quarterback when facing the Raiders (twice). They faced Davis Mills when they played the Texans and Marcus Mariota against the Commanders.

The defense was lit up by Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones early in the season. They did face Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes. However, they closed out the season facing Chris Oladokun and Trey Lance.

The defense, which had started showing cracks down the stretch, really struggled last week against Josh Allen. Allen threw three touchdowns and rushed for 66 yards but his two fumbles and pair of interceptions had the Bills beating themselves in the game. Despite the turnovers, Buffalo scored 30 points on the Broncos and never punted.

Like they likely will do with the New England offense, Denver dared Buffalo to put together extended drives. Buffalo did, repeatedly, with six scoring drives of 67 or more yards. The turnovers were an interesting occurrence in the game, as Denver has struggled to create turnovers much of the season (five in the last six weeks of the season) and got five in the Divisional playoff game.

Denver brings the pass rush, Zach Allen (7 sacks) and former Jet John Franklin-Myers (7.5 sacks) bring the pressure up the middle. Even nose tackle Malcolm Roach (4 sacks) can bring the pressure. On the edge, Nik Bonitto (14 sacks) is a premier speed rusher and Jonathan Cooper (8 sacks) is solid on the other edge.

Unlike the Chargers and Texans, Allen, Franklin-Myers and Roach will stress the interior of the offensive line. That means rookie left guard Jared Wilson, center Garrett Bradbury (seemingly fine after an illness during the week caused him to miss practice time) and Michael Onwenu will be expected to hold strong in the passing game.

On the edges, Cooper and Bonitto are both a handful with speed and power moves in their arsenal. Jonah Ellis and Dondrea Tillman rotate in and both have had little dropoff as they’ve combined for 6.5 sacks. The ray of sunshine for New England? Will Campbell will see a lot of Bonitto, who stays on his side, but the smaller pass rusher is not the long-armed, hulking edge with size, speed and reach that has given him trouble all season.

In the secondary, Pat Surtain is a four time Pro Bowl and two time All Pro cornerback who was the defensive player of the year in 2024. Most teams will attack the other outside cornerback, Riley Moss. The Patriots can hope to see more of first round pick Jahdae Barron, but after numerous opportunities during the season, he has joined back-up Kris Abrams-Draine in the “do not open unless due to emergency” role.

The Broncos are without starting safety Brandon Jones in the playoffs as he tore his pectoral in week 15 and needed surgery. P.J. Locke stepped in and after a rough first game has improved. Locke had a huge interception of Josh Allen in the third quarter when it looked like Buffalo was going to drive down and take the lead and shift momentum of the game.

With New England getting Mack Hollins back, he and Kayshon Boutte should see a lot of Surtain and Moss on Sunday. New England will continue to play Kyle Williams and he’s always an option for a deep shot.

The tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper along with running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson could be x-factors in the passing game. Talanoa Hufanga is a big hitter, but not strong in coverage. Both linebackers, Alex Singleton and Dre Greenlaw, struggle in man coverage.

Key Match-up: Stefon Diggs vs Ja’Quan McMillian

When Denver spent their first round draft pick this year on cornerback Jahdae Barron, it was expected he would team up with Surtain and Moss to be the most formidable cornerback group. Instead, slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian has kept a strangle-hold on the position. The former undrafted free agent out of East Carolina has risen from the practice squad in 2022 to impending free agency with his best season and his Divisional round interception in overtime against Buffalo has him ready to cash in during free agency.

This week, McMillian is likely to spend a lot of time opposite Diggs in the slot. Expect New England to use motion to get the match-ups and mix up the Denver secondary--they’ve had issues with bunch formations this season. Also, New England will try to get Diggs on Moss where his quickness and savvy are a big advantage.

McMillian had the interception in overtime but otherwise was the real lock-down corner against Buffalo. Buffalo used motion to get slot cornerback Khalil Shakir matched up on anyone but McMillian to great success.

Run Offense:

Last week Buffalo’s James Cook ran 24 times for 117 yards while quarterback Josh Allen added another 66 yards rushing. Fortunately for Denver, both players lost fumbles and swung momentum Denver’s way multiple times during the game. Denver had struggled forcing fumbles during the season, so it was a surprise seeing the ball on the ground so often.

Of course, that has been the case with New England as well. However, the likely culprit, Rhamondre Stevenson, has not been to blame. Instead, it has been quarterback Drake Maye with the ball security issues. After seeing Buffalo’s performance last week, Maye has to take better care of the football on Sunday afternoon in Denver.

Stevenson had 70 yards on just 16 carries against the strong Texans defensive front and seems to be hitting his stride after a midseason injury slowed him. TreVeyon Henderson had a rough game, with just 25 yards rushing on 12 carries. New England seemed intent on running delayed hand-offs against the aggressive Texans front seven, but they never seemed to work for them.

Inflating the Denver defense’s run stats is the fact, like the Patriots, their strength of schedule had them facing some teams that were among the worst running the football. The Raiders, Packers, Chargers, Commanders, Texans, Jaguars, and Chiefs all ranked in bottom half of the yards before contact per running back rush, and Denver’s defense feasted on these weaker blocking teams.

Linebackers Alex Singleton, Justin Strnad and Dre Greenlaw are tasked with the run defense along with big Malcolm Roach and D.J. Jones up front. With their aggressive pass rush, teams can have success with speed to the outside, which seems to indicate Henderson could have a chance to break a long run.

Talanoa Hufanga is much better in run support than pass coverage, so establishing the run game to get him sprinting to the line of scrimmage for play action could lead to some big gains and open tight ends or running backs.

Key Match-up: TreVeyon Henderson vs Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper

TreVeyon Henderson has struggled in the playoffs after seemingly taking the lead running back role during midseason. He has just 52 yards rushing on 21 carries in two games. Also, in the passing game, he has two receptions for just seven yards.

Henderson has game-breaking speed and this may be a match-up he can take advantage of running to the outside. Both Bonitto and Cooper love to loop wide with speed to get into the backfield and aren’t necessarily in position to set the edge in the run game. In those circumstances, Henderson could well be on his way to a footrace to the end zone.

NE Defense vs Opponent Offense:

The national media have once again disrespected the New England defense in the aftermath of the Divisional round. It has not been a story of, “New England’s defense stops star young quarterbacks Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud” but instead “Herbert and Stroud stunk for no reason letting the lucky Patriots win.”

A lot of that is due to the defense. Mike Vrabel, as a former defensive coordinator, will get a lot of credit, but inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr. Kuhr, stepping in with Terrell Williams away from the team dealing with prostate cancer treatment, has been excellent at dialing up a game plan each week to slow down an 11 win team and 12 win team in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Denver won 14 games and has one of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL in Sean Payton. He has his hand-picked offensive coordinator, Joe “Grandson of Vince” Lombardi. Lombardi started as an offensive assistant with Payton in New Orleans in 2007 and other than a few stints as offensive coordinator in Detroit for Jim Caldwell and in Los Angeles for Brandon Staley, Lombardi has been attached to the hip of Payton.

The Broncos’ offense is not of the Patriots’ caliber. They have depended upon their defense keeping games close and finding a way to win with some late game heroics from Bo Nix. How that will work with Jarrett Stidham under center against a New England offense that’s allowed just one touchdown in two games (and that was with a short field).

Pass Defense:

The Patriots are potentially short-handed at edge rusher with starter and sack leader Harold Landry ruled out with his ongoing knee injury. The good news is that starting linebackers Robert Spillane (hand injury) and Christian Ellis (hip injury) are off the injury report. In addition, starting cornerback Carlton Davis cleared concussion protocol and was removed from the injury report.

The story of the week is Denver having to start Jarrett Stidham with starting quarterback Bo Nix out with a broken bone in his ankle. Stidham has not thrown a pass in a regular season game since in the past two seasons in Denver. He is the ultimate wild card.

New England will continue their trend of bringing pressure and disguising looks just as they have done throughout the playoffs against Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud to great effect. Stroud threw four interceptions last week completing just 20 of 47 attempts and finishing with a 20.0 passer rating.

With Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones blanketing opposing wide receivers throughout the playoffs, the Broncos will have a tough test against the New England secondary. The Patriots will face Courtland Sutton who with the arrival of Bo Nix and Sean Payton has emerged as their top target.

Sutton is not a big play receiver with breakaway speed, but he is six-foot-four and knows how to use his body to shield the ball from defenders. His chemistry with Nix was apparent, but with Stidham he is needed as his security blanket on third downs.

Broncos’ second-year wide receiver Troy Franklin has been their clear number two target all season and is questionable with a hamstring injury after leaving the game last week and being limited in practice throughout this week. If he can go, the long and lean speedster will be counted on to be the vertical target for the strong-armed Stidham.

Young wide receivers Marvin Mims and Pat Bryant had to step up last week. Bryant left the game with a concussion but was cleared to play. Old friend and tight end sized wide receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey has been pressed into service lately due to the injuries.

Denver has veteran tight end Evan Engram as their receiving tight end with starter Adam Trautman handling more of a blocking role. Running back RJ Harvey is a better receiver than runner and back-up Tyler Badie chips in on third downs. Fullback Adam Prentice is the last option in the passing game if the blocker is on the field.

Key Match-up: DTs Christian Barmore and Milton Williams vs Gs Ben Powers and Quinn Meinerz

New England is going to have to generate pressure at some point without blitzing. Without Landry, the Patriots are at a disadvantage on the edge as Denver has two excellent tackles in Garett Bolles on the left side and former 49er Mike McGlinchey on the right side. Pressure is going to have to come up the middle and that means Barmore and Williams will have to earn those hefty paychecks.

Right guard Quinn Meinerz is one of the better interior offensive linemen in the NFL (this is a strong offensive line in Denver) and only allowed two sacks and had just three penalties to give him the number total ProFootballFocus.com grade of 90.9 for all guards. While he tops out in the run game, he ranks “only” 20th in the pass blocking.

On the left side, Ben Powers is the liability. The veteran had a 62.4 ProFootballFocus.com grade which was 39th in the league. His run blocking was better than his pass blocking, but neither was great. Both Barmore and Williams need to take advantage of these guards when possible.

The interior offensive line may get a boost for Denver as starting center Luke Wattenberg was designated to return from injury reserve this week and is questionable to play. That is good for the Broncos because back-up center Alex Forsythe is questionable. A disaster for Denver would be both being out and having to turn to recently signed practice squad center Sam Mustipher.

Run Defense:

The New England defense has returned to their early season run stuffing ways to great success. The Chargers rushed for just 87 yards in the Wild Card game and the Texans managed just 48 in the divisional round.

Those numbers are worse considering Justin Herbert had 57 of those 87 yards running for his life and C.J. Stroud had 11 of those 48 yards on scrambles. Neither the Chargers or Texans were able to muster any kind of running game.

Denver was hoping to get their lead running back J.K. Dobbins and his hard running style back but he was ruled out for the AFC Championship game. Dobbins injured his foot earlier this season after ten games in which he rushed for 772 yards (5.0 yards per rush) and was placed on injured reserve.

RJ Harvey, the rookie second-round draft pick is a smaller back (five-foot-eight and 205 lbs) and is more of a receiving option and home run hitter than between-the-tackles pounder. Thrust into the lead role, he has struggled averaging just 3.7 yards per rush. Behind him, Jaleel McLaughlin is even smaller than Harvey, and isn’t expected to have a large role in the game plan.

The concern for New England’s defense in the running game this postseason has been quarterbacks scrambling with Justin Herbert being the leading rusher for the Chargers in the Wild Card game and last week C.J. Stroud had the longest rush for the Texans last year.

Jarrett Stidham does not have the running ability of Bo Nix and that is a piece of the Denver running game that will be missing on Sunday. Since Dobbins was injured, the Broncos’ run game has not been the same and Nix carried more of the load and he was Denver’s leading rusher last week against Buffalo.

If this were a silly preview that had checkmarks for each unit matching up, there’d be a huge checkmark for the resurgent New England run defense with the struggling Denver run offense being a big disadvantage.

Key Match-up: NT Khyiris Tonga vs Cs Luke Wattenberg/Alex Forsythe/Sam Mustipher

As much as the return of Wattenberg would help Denver, having to roll out Forsythe or especially Mustipher could derail the running game for the Broncos. Tonga’s return to health along with a fresh defensive tackle Cory Durden alongside linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Ellis has revitalized the New England run defense.

Tonga is huge, penetrates well, and the pending free agent is earning himself a huge paycheck this offseason. Ellis and Spillane have reaped the rewards of Tonga occupying space and letting them penetrate into the backfield and blow up the run game. If Tonga overpowers whoever is out there for Denver, it puts even more pressure on Stidham and the passing game.

Other Factors:

The Broncos always have an advantage in elevation with the game played at “Insert Sponsor I don’t care about” at Mile High Stadium. It is a simple plan for the Patriots to mitigate the advantage and that is to keep their defense fresh with strong third down play and long drives from the offense. Of course, that’s easier said than done.

Sean Payton brought in former New Orleans kicker Will Lutz and he has hit 87.5% of his field goals and all 39 extra point tries this season. New England counters with rookie Andres Borregales who shook off a rough start and has made 84.4% of his field goals and 53 of 55 field goals. Both are capable of making kicks out to 60 yards in Denver.

The punters for both units have enjoyed low workloads. Bryce Baringer occasionally lets off a wounded duck but has been solid overall and been consistent in the cold weather in the playoffs. Denver has rookie sixth-round draft pick and Australian punter Jeremy Crawshaw booming punts. His only issue is occasionally outkicking coverage, which he has to be careful of this week.

The coverage units for both teams are excellent as Brendan Schooler from New England and Devon Key from Denver are two of the best in the game. Key earned All Pro on special teams this season which was Schooler’s honor last year in addition to making the Pro Bowl.

Marcus Jones is clearly a top punt return threat and his fearlessness in returning almost any kick makes him a weapon, Denver can counter with the explosive Marvin Mims returning both punts and kicks. As far as coaches, Jeremy Springer has shown why he was the only holdover from the previous administration while Denver rolls with former URI Ram Darren Rizzi, simply the best special teams coordinator of this century.

This game is great because both teams have great coaches not only on special teams but on both sides of the ball. Mike Vrabel has been fantastic and so has Sean Payton. The New England defense and the Denver offense both are considered extensions of the head coaches. Vance Joseph is a phenomenal defensive mind and his unit faces the innovative Josh McDaniels offense.

Game Pick:

The Patriots and Broncos are very similar teams. Both have an all-world young cornerback highlighting their defense. While the Broncos may have a better pass rush, the Patriots’ defense has shown it can bring pressure, create turnovers, make stops on third down and was a top-ten unit for a reason.

The biggest mismatch is at the most important position. If Bo Nix were healthy, I’d still pick the Patriots, but in a close game and Vegas oddsmakers would have the spread at basically a pick’em, which is an advantage to the road team.

However, Jarrett Stidham, despite the arm strength, despite the experience running the offense in training camp and running scout teams, is just not going to be an equal to the best quarterback in the NFL this season in “should be MVP” Drake Maye. Maye gives the Patriots a big advantage, as he has been against the Chargers and Texans.

In the playoffs against loaded defenses, he has made adjustments and done enough to make big plays to win the game. Bo Nix pulled out some magic in Denver, but he’s out and Jarrett Stidham, the career back-up who blew his chance to start in 2020 losing out in a training camp battle to a washed up Cam Newton, just does not have the skills to put up enough points against the Patriots.

The National media has jumped on the Jarrett Stidham and Sean Payton magic train to derail their fervent desire not to see New England in the Super Bowl again, I get it and understand it. But the fact is that Denver needs an otherworldly performance from a defense that just gave up 30 points to an offense not as good as New England’s and is playing a back-up quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since the 2023 season.

PATRIOTS 24 @ BRONCOS 13

Spread: Patriots -4.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -244, Opponent +199: Patriots

O/U: 42.5: Over

W2W4: New England Patriots vs Houston Texans - Divisional Playoff Round

2026-01-18T08:10:00.000-05:00

The New England Patriots have returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2021 and notched their first victory in the playoffs since the 2018 season with their 13-3 victory over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53. In an eerily similar type of game to that last playoff win against a different Los Angeles team, the Patriots overcame early turnovers against the Chargers on Sunday night and their hard-hitting defense led the way to a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

But this week the degree of difficulty increases exponentially. Instead of a very good Chargers defense, the Patriots take on the best defense in the NFL in the Houston Texans. Like the Chargers, however, there are red flags on offense that keep them from being a complete team. Add in that they have to deal with Drake Maye after he seemingly got the first playoff game jitters out of his system in the first half last week, and this game could be an epic chess match.

Last Week:

The Patriots hosted the Chargers on Sunday Night Football on NBC and after a tough start to the game on offense, overcame turnovers to grind out a playoff win.

The Patriots never trailed after a scoreless first quarter and when rookie kicker Andres Borregales broke a 3-3 tie with two seconds remaining before the half he gave the Patriots all the points they would need.

The defense was the star of the game as they harassed quarterback Justin Herbert throughout the game. A hobbled Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal combined for 30 yards on the ground on a dozen rushes as the New England defense welcomed back Robert Spillane and Milton Williams. Most of the damage on the ground was done by Justin Herbert running for his life.

The Patriots’ pass defense slowed Herbert and allowed just one pass of 20 yards to Ladd McConkey, forcing Herbert to target his receivers on short passing routes as the defense showed a mix of coverages and disguises pre-snap.

After a slow start, Drake Maye was back to his normal MVP self in the second half spreading the ball around the offense completing passes to nine different receivers. The Patriots suffered with some first half drops and a first quarter interception and a sack/fumble on their first drive of the second half.

The defense picked up the offense as the Chargers eschewed a field goal and was stopped on fourth down from the two yard line getting no points from the interception and taking over at the New England ten yard line.

After the Maye fumble in the second half, the defense stepped up, stopping the Chargers on a third-and-four from midfield and forcing the Chargers to punt (in what may have been a good time for the Charges to get a little aggressive and go for it on fourth-and-four). New England drove downfield and took a 9-3 lead on the Borregales field goal.

The Chargers went punt (down six, on fourth and seven from near midfield), turnover (fumble), and turnover on downs while Maye finally reached the end zone hitting Hunter Henry on a play highlighted by a fantastic blitz pickup by rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson to give Maye time to roll out and complete the pass.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

This week’s game is at 3:00 PM on Sunday afternoon as the Texans roll into Gillette Stadium, hopefully leaving the lettermen jackets back in Houston.

For those who don’t remember, in 2012 the Texans started 11-1 and rolled into Foxboro in December wearing custom-made matching letterman jackets to Gillette Stadium only to be crushed 42-14 by the Patriots. The jackets became a punchline. The Texans finished 12-4 as a Wild Card and came back to Foxboro in the Divisional round (without the jackets) and got ass-whipped again 41-28 in a game that was 38-13 in the fourth quarter before they piled on some garbage scores.

The game will air on ABC/ESPN with streaming available via ESPN+ and can be seen in the greater Boston area on WCVB-TV Channel 5 and on ABC6 in the greater Providence, RI/New Bedford, MA area. Joe Buck will handle play-by-play duties with Hall of Fame quarterback and Miami Dolphins general manager and head coach search advisor Troy Aikman as the color analyst. Lisa Salters and Laura Rutledge will provide analysis from the sidelines.

This week's game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. John Sadak will call the game with former Titans and Patriots cornerback and twin Jason McCourty providing analysis.

Key Stats:

New England Patriots

The Patriots offense exploded in 2025 finishing second in points scored (490) and third in yards (6,449) (all statistics from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted). They averaged 6.2 yards per play on offense led by the fourth most passing yards (4,258) and 31 passing touchdowns. The running game added the sixth-most rushing yards (2,191) and 4.4 yards per rush.

The Patriots have been hurt by turnovers at times, and finished the regular season ninth in turnovers with 16. They were 18th with eight lost fumbles and fourth with just eight interceptions.

New England’s defense was 19th in forcing turnovers with just 19. They were 10th in fumbles forced, with nine. They were 18th in the league with ten interceptions.

Houston Texans

The Texans offense finished the 2025 season 13th in points scored (404) and 18th in yards (5,559). They averaged 5.1 yards per play on offense and had 14th most passing yards (3,707) and had 24 passing touchdowns. The running game was 22nd in yards (1,852) and averaged 3.9 yards per rush.

The Texans’ offense was first in the regular season with just three fumbles lost (although they fumbled five times and lost two last week against Pittsburgh in the cold) and ninth with just nine interceptions.

The Houston defense was one of the strongest units in the league finishing second in points allowed (295) and first with the fewest total yards allowed (4,713). They allowed just 4.8 yards per play and were sixth in the league in passing yards allowing just 3,120 yards. They were seventh in the NFL allowing just 20 passing touchdowns. The run defense allowed the fourth fewest yards (1,593) and the eight fewest touchdowns (13) while allowing 4.0 yards per rush.

The Texans’ defense is third in forced turnovers with 29, fourth in the NFL in forced fumbles (10) and third in interceptions with 19.

NE Offense vs HOU Defense:

The Patriots are facing a Texans defense that is littered with All Pros and Pro Bowlers and hard-hitting at every position. They are athletic, they are aggressive, and they are physical.

This is probably the best defense they have faced all season, although the Patriots defeated Cleveland (fourth in yards allowed per game), the Chargers (fifth in yards allowed per game), Buffalo--and scored 31 points in the rematch they lost--(seventh in yards allowed per game), and New Orleans (ninth in yards allowed per game), so this weak strength of schedule argument loses some validity looking at the top defenses they beat already.

Speaking of weak strength of schedule, let’s look at Houston versus good offenses. The Patriots were second to the Rams in points per game. Houston was 4-4 against top-tier offenses. They lost to the Rams in week one, lost to Jacksonville (sixth in points per game) allowing 17 points in week three, and Seattle (third in points per game) allowing 27 points in week seven. They also lost to Denver (14th in points per game) in week nine.

Houston beat Jacksonville (sixth in points per game)in the week ten rematch, but allowed 29 points. Ditto their win against Indianapolis (eighth in points per game) in week 18, as Riley Leonard scored 30 points against a mix of starters and back-ups. They won against San Francisco (tenth in points per game) allowing just 15 points, but note that Mac Jones was at quarterback, not starter Brock Purdy.

The defense beat up on rookie Cam Ward in week four (shutout) and again in week 11. They also beat-up on Cooper Rush quarterbacking the Ravens in week five. For all the talk of the New England offense beating up on bad teams, the fact remains that the Texans’ defenses beat up on some bad offenses.

This is not to take anything away against one of the two or three best defenses in the league (Denver and Seattle are right there with Houston) and they are going to be a very tough match-up for the New England offense.

That said, it’s the playoffs, it’s supposed to be tough!

Pass Offense:

New England’s offense holds up well with advanced statistics, as they were second to the Rams in EPA per play (0.12) tied with Los Angeles with 6.2 yards per play, and third in points per drive with 2.6. In addition, the Patriots led the NFL with an 8.1% explosive play rate (per Sharp Football Analysis).

The Patriots allowed five sacks last week, as rookie left tackle Will Campbell and rookie left guard Jared Wilson were both back from injury but were responsible for four of those sacks. The Patriots have lived and died with their young left side of the offensive line. They have another tough match-up against the Texans, but with the first playoff game yips out of the way, they will be expected to step up on Sunday afternoon.

Bradbury, Onwenu and Moses were competent last week and will need to be again on Sunday. Expect swing tackle Thayer Munford who was out for four snaps last week to get a bit more work in jumbo packages to slow the pass rush. The two tight end set with Hunter Henry (56 snaps) and Austin Hooper (38 snaps)was used a lot last week and should be out to help in protection again

The Chargers were laser focused on Stefon Diggs last week, rolling extra defenders his way. Remember, he played in Houston last year and they are aware of what he can do and will likely get another week seeing extra defenders with Mack Hollins out for the playoffs.

Once they got past their first half jitters, the offense improved. Despite four drops (Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Diggs and DeMario Douglas), Maye improved dramatically in the second half going 11-of-14 for 173 passing yards for a 142.0 passer rating.

The Chargers ran more man-coverage than usual early in the game but when Maye began using his legs as a weapon, he forced Los Angeles back into zone to account for the mobility of the quarterback. That could be another way to manipulate the defense this week.

The Texans do not blitz much, 22nd in the NFL with a 21.95 blitz rate, mainly because they are able to generate pressure with their front four and edge rushers Will Anderson (12 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (15 sacks). Even their back-ups, Denico Autry (3.5 sacks) and Derek Barnett (5 sacks) are capable and starter quality. Sheldon Rankins (3 sacks) provides inside pass rush alongside Tommy Togiai.

The advanced metrics show that those numbers are actual. The Texans were second only to the Vikings with a 42.2% pressure rate.

They tied with the Seahawks and Browns with an NFL best 0.12 EPA per play on defense and tied with Seattle for a league-best 1.5 points per drive allowed. The Texans were fourth in yards per play allowed (4.8) and led the league with the lowest down conversion rate allowed (64.8%).

The Texans mix man-coverage and zone and their strong secondary is top five in yards per throw allowed to wide receivers and tight ends. Cornerbacks Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter and Jalen Pitre may be the best trio in the NFL right now. Safeties Calen Bullock and former Patriot Myles Bryant flood zones and make plays against tight ends. Hard hitting linebackers Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair punish receivers across the middle in zone coverage.

If there are holes in the passing defense, they can occasionally give up a big strike as they’re just 17th in Explosive Play Rate Allowed, at 5.6%. This brings to mind the Browns’ defense the Patriots faced in October, as Maye exploited the deep passing game with completions of 21 yards to Mack Hollins, 31 yards to Austin Hooper, 39 yards to Kayshon Boutte and 44 yards to DeMario Douglas in that game. A 9-7 game at halftime ended up a 32-13 New England victory.

Run Offense:

The Patriots are facing a Texans defense that is littered with All Pros and Pro Bowlers and hard-hitting at every position. They are athletic, they are aggressive, and they are physical.

The Texans ranked sixth in the NFL with a 1.0 yards before contact per running back rush. Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togiai eat up the space in the middle and occupy blockers giving linebackers Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair space to get to the ball carrier.

New England has had a renaissance in the running game down the stretch, topping 200 yards twice in the last four weeks and piling up 146 yards on the ground last week against the Chargers. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have become a reliable 1-2 punch, but the addition of Drake Maye’s running has transformed them in the playoffs.

Last week Maye had 66 of the 146 yards on the ground. Henderson struggled with just 27 yards on nine carries, but Stevenson was very effective and should have had more carries. Rhamondre rumbled for 53 yards on ten carries.

The Patriots could get additional depth if Terrell Jennings is activated. D’Ernest Johnson filled in as the third running back, but added little with 13 carries for 25 yards. Jennings only averaged 3.2 yards per rush but limited action, but also can contribute on kick returns.

The Texans have allowed over 100 yards rushing just six times going 3-3. However, Las Vegas (145 yards rushing), Kansas CIty (126 yards) and Buffalo (143 yards total) were able to break off big plays to account for those yards. Ashton Jeanty had a 60-yard catch and run and added a 51-yard rushing touchdown, Patrick Mahomes accounted for 59 yards on the ground, and James Cook hit a 45-yard run.

That bodes well for New England with home-run hitting rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson and Drake Maye able to pick-up yards on quarterback scrambles.

NE Defense vs HOU Offense:

While the Houston defense is a handful, the offense has had some struggles this season. This week, New England catches a huge break with number one wide receiver Nico Collins (71 receptions for 1,117 yards in just 15 games). Collins suffered a serious concussion last week and is out on Sunday.

New England was fortunate that top cornerback Christian Gonzalez was able to clear concussion protocol and will be active on Sunday. Also, nose tackle Khyiris Tonga is off the injury report and should return. Edge rusher Harold Landry is questionable, but is likely to be active and New England could get additional depth in the secondary with week one starter at cornerback Alex Austin potentially being activated.

The New England defense finished the regular season allowing just 320 points but what really mattered was they faced an offense that put up 40 points against the Jerod Mayo 2024 team and had elite quarterback Justin Herbert at quarterback with Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen and former first-round draft pick Quentin Johnson.

For all the talk of the Patriots not facing anyone any good on the schedule, the questions were more about the offenses faced, as they played a number of very good defenses. The defense only gave up more than 27 points in one game, the 35-31 loss to the Bills in week 15.

They gave up 20 points to the Raiders in week one and 27 to the Dolphins (with Tyreek Hill) in week two, but neither of those games did they have Gonzalez at cornerback. After that, the defense improved from then on and now they are hosting Houston at Gillette Stadium in the Divisional round in January.

Pass Defense:

The Texans come into Foxboro without Nico Collins, which is a huge loss for quarterback C.J. Stroud. Last week, slot wide receiver, Christian Kirk--who had just 28 receptions for 239 yards in 13 regular season games--lit up the Steelers’ secondary with eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown.

With Marcus Jones--one of the best slot cornerbacks in the NFL likely to be all over Kirk, the Texans will need to find another option. Tight end Dalton Shultz was their second-highest volume receiver in the regular season (82 catches for 777 yards), but was invisible in Pittsburgh with just three catches for 12 yards.

Last week after losing Collins, the rest of the receivers failed to do much as rookie Jayden Higgins (three receptions for 39 yards) led the way.

Fellow rookie and former Iowa State receiver and second-round draft pick Jayden Higgins will be stepping into the top target role. Higgins is tall (six-foot-four and 214 lbs) with a huge wingspan and also highly athletic and fast. He can go up and get the ball and can be a matchup nightmare.

Fellow rookie from Iowa State Jaylin Noel was shut out with just one target playing just six snaps. Noel has been losing snaps to Kirk and is pretty much a non-factor.

Xavier Hutchinson is probably the number two outside receiver for Houston. The 2023 sixth-round draft pick out of Iowa State (like Noel and Higgins) is a larger target (six-foot-three and 210 lbs) and hauled in a career-high 35 catches for 428 yards.

The biggest issue for the Texans’ offense, like the Chargers last week, is the offensive line. Entering the playoffs, Houston’s offensive line ranked 30th in pass block win rate (55.4 percent) and 32nd in run block win rate (68.3 percent) per ESPN.com).

ProFootballFocus.com was a little nicer, but still ranked the unit 27th in the NFL in their final rankings. Rookie left tackle Aireontae Ersery struggled and former Patriots draft pick from the Belichick era Jake Andrews (the “other” Andrews) has really had problems, but he is still performing better than 2023 second-round draft pick Juice Scruggs did.

Former first-round draft pick Tytus Howard was finally moved from tackle to guard and has played much better and has been the best overall performer on the offensive line. On the right side, Ed Ingram has been very good in the run game, but still struggles in pass protection. At right tackle, former Patriots tackle Trent Brown is questionable for the game and a game time decision with an ankle injury.

If the massive but limited mobility tackle is out, the Texans will likely turn to 2024 second-round draft pick Blake Fisher. Like Scruggs, Fisher looks like a bust coming out of the 2024 draft. He started the season at left tackle, was replaced by Ersery (who probably needed a developmental redshirt season), came back when Ersery injured his thumb, was still underperforming and was replaced again.

With Landry expected to play and with K’Lavon Chaisson on the opposite side, the Patriots got some pass rush mojo back last week. Of course, the biggest return was Milton Williams in the middle of the defensive line to pair with Christian Barmore. The soft middle of the Chargers’ offensive line was dominated and the inside pressure was too much for them to handle.

This week, the Patriots should again have that advantage inside to pressure quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud struggles with the pass rush in his face and will throw the ball away much more these days than his dazzling rookie season where he was making more plays outside the pocket.

The Texans’receivers’ size can be a mismatch, but Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez are not undersized and will not back down. The Texans have had success on occasion dialing up deep passes, which puts pressure on rookie Craig Woodson and Jaylinn Hawkins at the safety position to protect the deep part of the field.

Schultz had his most productive season since his 2021 year in Dallas, as he was targeted 106 times although he averaged a career low 9.5 yards per reception. The New England linebackers will have their hands full as they contend with the six-foot-five and 242 lb veteran. Schultz uses his body well to shield smaller defenders and still has the athleticism and wingspan to be a pain no matter who is covering him.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud has to have an outstanding game to produce points. The five fumbles last week was likely a one-game blip and otherwise he was solid with 250 yards passing. He has excellent athleticism but can hold the ball too long behind his weak offensive line and pay the price.

Houston has been waiting to see the version of C.J. Stroud from his offensive rookie of the year season in 2023 when he threw for over 4,000 yards and averaged 274 yards passing per game. However, the lack of blocking up front has made him gun shy and as the sacks and hits have piled up, his production has waned.

Stroud missed much of November with injuries, but still this offense struggles with being efficient and extending drives. They are 23rd in the NFL on third down, converting just 37.2%. In the Red Zone, they consistently bog down with a 46.3% touchdown rate, good for 30th in the NFL.

Run Defense:

New England gets Khyiris Tonga back this week, and he has certainly been missed. The big man in the middle of the defense has been a huge part of the run defense and his strength and size being lost in the middle of the defense was felt as the run defense suffered with him out injured.

Along with Tonga, the Patriots got Milton Williams back to team with Christian Barmore to take the Chargers’ running backs out of the game. Yes, Omarion Hampton was less than 100% but Kimani Vidal never got going and Justin Herbert tucking and running accounted for 57 of the 87 rushing yards allowed.

New England would love to make the Texans one-dimensional and tee off with different blitz looks, but they first have to do the dirty work to stop the run game. Robert Spillane was back at middle linebacker and he went wire-to-wire playing all 60 snaps and being a huge part of the running game being a non-factor. Christian Ellis got a lot of play spying Herbert and Jahlani Tavai (seven snaps) and Jack Gibbens (14 snaps) were back in the back up role.

On the defensive line, Cory Durden was still rotated in, playing 29 snaps, and big Leonard Taylor got 22 snaps and Eric Gregory got ten snaps without Tonga last week. The players who had been playing excessive snaps slid back into part time roles and the defense was better as the depth pieces proved to have little drop off.

The Houston offensive line isn’t much better run blocking than they are pass blocking, with Ed Ingram the exception. Last week against the Steelers, they had one of their best performances of the season as they topped 160 yards rushing for just the second time all season.

Pittsburgh’s defense got by on reputation in 2025, as their run defense was lit up numerous times throughout the season. The Wild Card round was another example, but no one should take anything away from Houston being effective on the ground and able to have a truly balanced rushing attack. That was a huge part of the reason they won that game.

Woody Marks had a career game as the fourth-round draft pick out of USC after four years at Mississippi State slashed through the Steelers’ defense for his first 100 yard game in the NFL in his first playoff game. Heck, it was the first time Marks topped 75 yards in a game. He averaged just 3.6 yards per rush in the regular season finishing with 703 yards on 196 carries.

Marks is smaller and most draft analysts had him pegged as a third down back as he uses quickness more than breakaway speed or running with power. He needs space and is dangerous once he gets to the second level. He is an excellent receiver but Houston rarely uses him in the passing game.

When Houston needs a power back, veteran Nick Chubb is the man as the veteran piled up 506 yards on 122 carries (4.1 yards per rush). Injuries have robbed Chubb of the explosiveness of his fabulous first five seasons in Cleveland, but he is still smart and powerful and can find yards in short-yardage spots.

For all the talk of his mobility, Stroud has always moved in the pocket to get space to throw and while an effective scrambler, the injury risk to the long and lanky quarterback has kept him from tucking and running. Since returning at the end of November, he had 14 rushes for 20 yards.

If New England can slow the Houston rushing game, it gives their defense a huge advantage forcing the Texans to be one-dimensional without Nico Collins playing to impact the passing game.

Other Factors:

The Patriots got a solid game out of rookie kicker Andres Borregales in his first postseason performance as he handled the cold and wind of New England in January well. He connected on all three field goals and his only extra point attempt.

Punter Bryce Baringer had a mixed bag punting. His first punt went for 55 yards but just 35 yards net as he booted it into the end zone. His second punt was much better pinning the Chargers inside the ten yard line. His final punt was also good as he forced the Chargers to start at their own 12 yard line.

The New England coverage units were solid in the wild card game holding the Chargers in check and not allowing any big plays. Marcus Jones attempted to return a pair of punts he should have fair caught, but no harm done but no net gain either. Efton Chism had two uninspiring kickoff returns as he showed little juice again in the kick return game.

The Houston offense has been the kicking game and Ka’imi Fairbairn for much of the season. Fairbairn has had a career year connecting on 44 of 48 field goals in just 15 games and making all 28 extra points--in the regular season as he missed his first PAT last week, likely due to his being shocking he got to kick four in one game.

Fairbairn has been a dome kicker in Houston his entire career, so the effect of the cold and the wind and the slush and the snow forecast for Sunday could be a factor. He missed a 55-yard kick and had a 35-yard kick blocked in Kansas City last year and also missed a key 47-yard field goal that could have given Houston the lead before halftime in Baltimore in the playoffs the year prior.

Tommy Townsend is a veteran punter who punted four years in Kansas City and should be unaffected by the weather and playoff atmosphere. He has had only one punt blocked over six seasons. He has a strong and accurate leg and will need to keep his focus on hang-time with a game-breaker like Marcus Jones back to return punts.

For the Texans’s coverage units, they have allowed a kick and a punt return touchdown already this season. The Football Database has Houston ranked 22nd in kick return coverage allowing 26.66 yards per return and 14th in punt return coverage allowing 9.88 yards per return.

Rookie Jaylin Noel handles punt returns (10.8 yards per return average) and teams with backup cornerback Termon Smith on kickoffs. The Texans return teams are 15th in punt returns and 14th in kick returns.

Game Pick:

The Patriots, at 14-3 and winners of the AFC East and second seed in the AFC, are only 3.5 or 3 point favorites at home depending on the sports book. The Texans are an excellent defense, but suspect on offense. The offense has benefitted from the defense providing points and short fields.

The defense is no joke for Houston, but the New England defense is healthy and shut down one of the top quarterbacks in the league. WIth inclement weather expected for Sunday afternoon, and for a dome team like Houston, that weather can be a huge disadvantage. Their kicking game struggled in the weather in January already the past two seasons.

With two excellent defenses and the Texans short-handed on offense without Nico Collins, while their defense can keep them in the game, eventually New England’s offense is going to make a few big plays and that should be just enough to get a hard-fought victory.

#5 seed TEXANS 13 @ #2 seed PATRIOTS 17

Spread: Patriots -3: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -170, Texans +142: Patriots

O/U: 40.5: Under

NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2026-01-17T07:24:00.003-05:00

The 2025 NFL Playoffs started off with a bang! An amazing and entertaining season ended with a great week 18 and as coaches were fired or walked away (nine openings out of 32 teams, wow!) and the Wild Card Weekend brought a slate of entertaining games.

The College Football Championship kicked off the weekend with a pair of fun games on Thursday and Friday night as the opening act for the NFL Playoffs. On Saturday, the 8-9 and reeling Carolina Panthers gave the alleged “most dangerous team”, the Los Angeles Rams, more fight than they expected.

Carolina kept clawing back after falling behind 14-0 early, and with less than three minutes to play they took a four point lead. Unfortunately, or I guess as expected, they left too much time for the Rams who drove down the field and took the lead and the defense stood up and stopped Carolina from getting into field goal range to tie the game in the last 38 seconds and win 34-31.

Saturday night saw the NFC North grudge-match between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears in historic Soldier Field. The Packers went into Chicago and took a 21-6 lead into the fourth quarter. Despite scoring to push the lead back to 11 points with less than seven minutes to play, it didn’t stop Caleb Williams.

The fantastic cardiac kid led the Bears on two scoring drives sandwiched around a Brandon McManus missed field goal to take a 31-27 lead with 1:43 to play. The Packers came charging back down the field and fell short as the Bears’ defense held on for a wild win.

Sunday’s triple-header of games saw the Bills going into Jacksonville and outlasting the pesky Jaguars. The two teams went back-and-forth all game with no team leading by more than six points the entire game. At the end, it was too much Josh Allen and just when it seemed Trevor Lawrence had one more magic one-minute drive to move on, his pass was deflected and intercepted as Buffalo won 27-24.

The champs were dethroned on Sunday afternoon as the misfiring offense of the Philadelphia Eagles stalled out against the walking wounded San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles were holding a six point lead going into the fourth quarter and the 49ers, on the arm of wide receiver Jauan Jennings, took a 17-16 lead.

The Eagles’ defense intercepted Brock Purdy and drove down to field goal range to take back the lead with eight minutes to play. The 49ers came back and marched down the field to take a 23-19 lead with less than three minutes to play. The Eagles offense drove down the field but stalled out and turned the ball over on downs for a wild win for San Francisco.

Saturday night saw the Los Angeles Chargers coming cross-country to play in the cold and wind of frigid Foxboro as the playoff returned to New England for the first time since some Fox television announcer/Las Vegas Raiders minority owner was under center. For fans of hard-hitting defense, this was your game.

The Patriots led three field goals to one field goal in the fourth quarter before second-year quarterback Drake Maye found former Chargers tight end Hunter Henry for the only touchdown of the game. The New England defense closed out the game with a brutal pass rush led by former Eagle Milton Williams sacking Herbert for a sixth time to end the game and give New England a 16-3 win.

Finally, the weekend of amazing football ended on Monday night with the Texans traveling to Pittsburgh where the Steelers hadn’t won a playoff game in a decade and Aaron Rodgers hadn’t won a playoff game since he was lying to the media about vaccination status in an empty stadium without fans during the pandemic.

In another hard-hitting and defensive battle like the New England game, the score was 7-6 in favor of the Texans heading into the fourth quarter. Suddenly, the wheels fell off in Pittsburgh as the Steelers’ offense went Fumble, Punt, Interception and all of a sudden the Texans had two defensive scores sandwiched around a touchdown drive as they ran the ball down an exhausted Pittsburgh defense.

The final score was 30-6 in favor of the Texans, but this game was three quarters of a defensive battle with both defenses harassing the opposing offenses.

Now, with the divisional round down to the elite eight, these games should match that entertainment value again.

Each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and many appearances pre-pandemic as well).

Check out this week’s episode as we recapped week sixteen, handed out our weekly awards and rated the playoff teams, checked in on the head coaches on the hot seat, and of course all the game predictions and prognostications with our bold predictions--it is available here.

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

PLAYOFFS AND REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

Wild Card Weekend Last Week: Straight up: 5-1; Against the Spread: 5-1

Playoffs Totals: Straight up: 5-1; Against the Spread: 5-1

Regular Season Totals: Straight up: 168-103-1; Against the Spread: 130-139-3

Playoff and Season Totals: Straight up: 173-104-1; Against the Spread: 135-140-3

Now, on to the Divisional Weekend picks!

2025 NFL Divisional Round WeekPicks

Saturday 4:30PM:

No. 6 Bills 17 @ No. 1 Broncos 20

Spread: Bills -1.5: Broncos

Moneyline: Bills -105, Broncos -115: Broncos

O/U: 45.5: Under

Saturday 8:00PM:

No. 6 49ers 20 @ No. 1 Seahawks 30

Spread: Seahawks -7: Seahawks

Moneyline: Seahawks -340, 49ers +270: Seahawks

O/U: 44.5: Over

Sunday 3:00PM:

No. 5 Texans 13 @ No. 2 Patriots 17

Spread: Patriots -3: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -170, Texans +142: Patriots

O/U: 40.5: Under

Sunday 6:30PM:

No. 5 Rams 27 @ No. 2 Bears 28

Spread: Rams -3.5: Bears

Moneyline: Rams -198, Bears +164: Bears

O/U: 48.5: Over

W2W4: New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers - Wild Card Playoff Round

2026-01-11T08:38:00.000-05:00

The New England Patriots’ closed out their unexpected, unprecedented and unbelievable 2025 NFL regular season notching win number 14 of the season. After back-to-back 4-13 seasons, seeing the greatest Head Coach of all time fired, first-year head coach Jerod Mayo a one-and-done, Mike Vrabel came in and changed the culture and made football fun again in New England.

The Patriots finished strong with a 38-10 win over the Miami Dolphins one week after a 42-10 win over the New York Jets the week prior. Drake Maye may not have finished with another near perfect game like against New York, but he was efficient as he let AFC Offensive Player of the Week Rhamondre Stevenson carry the load.

With New England resting some dinged-up players, they also got starting left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams back and on the field to shake off some rust before the playoffs.

Now the second season begins. For New England, they were last in a playoff game in January 2022 after finishing 10-7 and as a Wild Card team in Mac Jones’ rookie season. The Patriots went into Buffalo and…got the wheels blown off in what was Bill Belichick’s last playoff game 47-17. It was 27-0 before Nick Folk hit a field goal before half time.

The Bills officially ended any chance of a New England return to greatness in the post-Brady era as Buffalo had seven straight touchdown drives before taking a knee inside two minutes. Jones threw an interception on the Patriots’ first drive of the game and first drive of the second half as the Patriots were completely outclassed.

Buffalo is in the playoffs this year as well, but they travel as the Wild Card team with the Patriots having won the AFC East and playing at home against the seventh seeded Chargers. Buffalo has to go against the red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars in Duval County.

The loss to Buffalo in week 15 has turned out to be the wake-up call this Patriots team desperately needed after they had ripped off ten straight wins going into the bye week after a 1-2 start to the season.

The Patriots, after blowing their 21-0 and 24-7 leads against the Bills in week 15, had a much-needed come-from-behind win against Baltimore on the road on a Sunday night and then thoroughly dominated a pair of inferior AFC East teams both on the road and at home in back-to-back weeks to close out the regular season.

While the ten-game winning streak was a great story, the Patriots were lucky to escape with wins multiple times against non-playoff teams during that streak as games against New Orleans, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay were all games that they really should have lost considering how they played in those games.

At 14-3, they finished as the number two seed in the AFC behind the 14-3 Denver Broncos for the top seed in the AFC due to tiebreakers. Who would have known that four months later that week one loss to the Raiders would come back and bite the Patriots and cost them a bye and the top seed?

Whatever happened in the regular season, it doesn’t matter any more other than seeding for who plays at home. The Patriots are 0-0 just like everyone else who made the playoffs and the only thing that matters is the sixty minutes on Sunday night between the white lines in Gillette Stadium when the Chargers come to Foxboro.

Last Week:

The Patriots finished strong as the calendar turned to 2026 and they sent Miami head coach Mike “I’m so much smarter than all of you” McDaniel into the head coaching trash bin with a 38-10 win. After an inspired start with seventh-round pick and former Longhorns star quarterback Quinn Ewers, the Patriots turned up the heat in the second half and the Dolphins packed their bags for the offseason.

Drake Maye threw for 191 yards while completing 14 of 18 passes and throwing a touchdown to Stevenson and not turning the ball over. He added 41 yards on five rushes. More importantly, the second-year quarterback was not sacked for the first time in his 30 games played in the NFL.

Stevenson carried the load on Sunday helping what turned into a close game into a blowout. He had 131 yards on just seven carries including ripping off a 56 yard rumble. He added two receptions for 22 yards and three total touchdowns.

The Patriots jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Miami was playing without defensive captain Minkah Fitzpatrick but otherwise had their full complement of starters on defense.

Stevenson set the tone with three carries for 70 yards to start the game and TreVeyon Henderson finished the touchdown drive with a five yard run to take a 7-0 lead without Maye having to throw a pass.

The Dolphins engaged in the traditional “Drive down the field on the Patriots defense on the first drive of the game” that seemingly every team did in 2025. However, the Dolphins--with offensive genius Mike McDaniel on the sidelines--still managed to screw it up. On fourth-and-one at the eight yard line, Ewers could not connect with Cedrick Wilson and they turned the ball over on downs.

New England marched down the field with TreVeyon Henderson rushing four times for 24 yards and a sweet flea-flicker that resulted in a 35-yard completion to rookie Efton Chism. Stevenson punched it in from the two-yard line on a direct snap with Maye out wide and the first quarter ended with New England ahead 14-0.

Credit to the Dolphins for coming back in the second quarter. Running back Jaylen Wright, who was starting in place of an injured Devon Achane, had five rushes for 20 yards and Ewers connected with Malik Washington for a two-yard touchdown.

The Patriots and Dolphins traded three-and-outs and when the Patriots went three-and-out again (punting from their own 40 on fourth and one), the Dolphins made a big mistake as Jaylen Wright fumbled and New England took over in Miami territory. Unfortunately, the Patriots could not capitalize and settled for a 38-yard field goal, which Zach Sieler blocked.

The Dolphins returned the blocked kick into New England territory and the defense stepped up forcing a field goal attempt with just beyond 30 seconds before the half. After Riley Patterson connected from 52 yards out, The Patriots took over with less than 30 seconds and their lead cut to four points.

Maye led New England into Miami territory and rookie Andres Borregales connected from 59 yards to go into the half ahead 17-10.

Miami came out in the second half and drove into the red zone before Ewers tossed a terrible interception that Jaylinn Hawkins appeared to be the intended target. Eweres had a pair of Dolphins in the end zone and threw the ball between them both letting Hawkins stop and intercept him in the end zone.

That was it for the Dolphins. Instead of tying the game on this Red Zone trip, the Patriots took over and after a big pass play outside the pocket by Maye finding Hunter Henry, it was back to Rhamondre. On third-and-two, Maye threw a strike to a wide open Stevenson.

Ewers and the offense were bottled up by the re-invigorated New England defense and on the next drive Stevenson was back in the end zone. The Dolphins did nothing on defense and Maye was able to find Stefon Diggs to get back in the Red Zone and Henderson pounded the rock in form the two yard line to make it 38-10.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

This week’s game is at 8:00 PM on Sunday night and will be broadcast on NBC. In the greater Boston area, that is WBTS NBC10 and on WJAR-10 in the greater Providence area. The powerhouse Sunday Night Football team will be back in Foxboro with Mike Tirico and the always polarizing Cris Collinsworth with Melissa Stark on the sidelines.

Sunday's game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One Radio. Tom McCarthy, the voice of the Philadelphia Phillies alongside former Falcons and Seahawks long-snapper Derek Rackley.

As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bob Socci on calling the play-by-play action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing bewildering noises, grunts and assorted yelps that somehow passes for game analysis around here.

Key Stats:

New England Patriots

The Patriots finished the regular season 8-0 on the road and 6-3 at Gillette Stadium in the 2025 regular season. The Patriots scored 490 points for the season, the second-highest in the NFL (28.8 per game). They totalled 6,449 yards, which was good for third-most in the league (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).

The efficiency in the passing game stood out, as the Patriots were first in the NFL with 7.7 net yards per pass attempt. They were 23rd in pass attempts, but fourth in passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns (31).

The Patriots almost had a perfect 50/50 split of pass and running plays on offense, as they passed for 4,258 yards on 502 attempts and rushed for 2,191 yards on 494 attempts. They were fourth in passing yards and sixth in rushing yards.

On defense, the Patriots finished fourth in points allowed (18.8 per game) with 320 and were eighth in yards allowed with 5,019. They finished the season 13th in rushing yards per attempt, at 4.2. The Patriots were ninth in passing yards allowed, with 3,290, and sixth in rushing yards allowed, with 1,729. New England was 14th in passing touchdowns allowed (25) and fourth in rushing touchdowns allowed (11).

Despite the raw numbers looking so good, the Patriots struggled in the red zone on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Patriots scored 36 red zone touchdowns on 63 trips, for a 57.1% touchdown rate good for 17th in the league. On defense, despite some improvement against the Jets and Dolphins in the final two weeks of the season, they finished 30th in the NFL allowing 27 of 40 (67.5%) opponent’s red zone trips to result in a touchdown.

Both the offense and defense have excelled in 2025 on third-down and fourth-down. The offense was sixth on third down, converting 85 of 198 third-downs (42.9%). On fourth-down, they were second in the NFL with a 72% conversion rate going 18 of 25.

On defense, they were 12th in third-down percentage allowing only a 38.5% conversion rate (77 of 200). On fourth down, the defense was second-best in the NFL allowing only 10 fourth-down conversions on 30 attempts (33.3%).

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are rolling into Foxboro having finished 20th in the NFL in points scored with 368 (21.6 per game). However, they were 12th in the league in total yards having piled up 5,675 total yards.

The Chargers, despite their reputation as a ground-and-pound Jim Harbaugh team, had 569 passing attempts (13th in the NFL) and 3,608 yards (18th in the league). However, they did have 26 passing touchdowns (11th) but 14 interceptions (24th). In net yards per pass attempt they finished 25th, at 5.7 yards per attempt.

In the rush offense, the Chargers finished 12th in the NFL with 2,067 yards on the 15th most attempts (466). They were 13th in yards per attempt at 4.4 yards per rush. Los Angeles had only ten rushing touchdowns on the season, which was 25th in the NFL.

The defense has been the strength of the Chargers in 2025 They are ninth in points allowed with 340 (20.0 per game) and fifth in yards allowed with only 4,849. They create turnovers, ranking seventh in the NFL, and those takeaways tend to be interceptions as they third in the NFL with 19 picked off passes.

That pass defense engineered by defensive coordinator Jesse Minter finished the regular season fifth in passing yards allowed with just 3,058 yards and just 16 passing touchdowns (3rd in the NFL). They are ninth in net yards per pass allowed with just 5.6 yards per attempt.

The Chargers have been solid in run defense as well, they finished the regular season eighth in the NFL allowing just 1,791 yards rushing. They were 16th in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed with 16 ground touchdowns. Despite the fewer yards allowed, Los Angeles were only 18th in yards per rush allowed at 4.3.

The Chargers thrived on third downs on both sides of the ball. On offense, they were third in the NFL converting 45.8% of their third downs (115 of 251). On defense, they were fifth in the league allowing just 35.2% conversion rate (79 of 199). Fourth downs were more middle of the pack: Los Angeles was 17th on offense for fourth down conversions at 57.1% on offense (12 of 21) and 12th on defense at 52.0% allowed on defense (13 of 25).

In the red zone, the defense was fantastic, ranking fourth overall and only allowing touchdowns on 23 of 49 trips by their opponents (46.9%); however, the offense struggled all season long in the red zone converting just 27 of 57 trips (47.4%) with a touchdown.

NE Offense vs LAC Defense:

The Patriots are facing a Chargers defense that is strong on all three levels: they rush the passer well, they have excellent linebackers and safeties who tackle well and play strong zone coverage, and their cornerbacks are not big names or nationally recognized but are solid and play very well together.

When the Chargers’ defense is discussed, it is the pass rushers and their superstar safety. Edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu should be a big name, as the 2023 second-round draft pick came into the NFL out of USC after a junior season where he had 22 tackles for a loss and 13.5 sacks earning him Pac-12 defensive player of the year.

Tuipulotu’s brother, Marlon, played at USC and briefly in the NFL. His cousin is former 49ers and current Denver Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga. Based on his play at USC and size, strength and athleticism, it was a surprise he fell to pick 54 overall (and, yes, the Patriots picked defensive end Keion White eight spots ahead of Tuipulotu).

Like Keion White, Tuipulotu came with the “tweener” label on him and likely was a large part of his fall out of the top-50 picks. He isn’t ideal length and heavier than the average NFL edge rusher, but it has not slowed him at all in the NFL. Los Angeles has received great value from Tuipulotu and with veteran Khalil Mack mentoring him, he is now in position to command a big extension.

The other big name on defense (other than Mack, the 34-year old who had 5.5 sacks this season) is Derwin James. James was the Chargers’ first-round draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and other than his foot and knee injury that robbed him of all but five games between the 2019 and 2020 season, he has been a star and earned five Pro Bowl nominations as well as being named to four All-Pro teams..

James moves all over the defense for the Chargers: he is one of the best blitzers, he can tackle and cover in man-coverage on slot receivers and tight ends. He lines up near the line of scrimmage and 15 yards deep. Basically, James is a Swiss army knife for the defense and is used at strong safety, free safety, nickel cornerback and linebacker.

James impacts the running game and passing game in so many different ways. His ability to play as a linebacker allows the Chargers to match-up with heavy formations without substituting and his coverage ability gives Los Angeles the ability to match-up spread formations with ease.

For the New England offense, finding number forty-five (Tuipulotu) and number three (James) has to be the first action in order to figure out how to attack the Chargers.

Pass Offense:

For as much as the Patriots are denigrated in the press for their lack of pass rush, and the Chargers are praised for bringing pressure, the advanced statistics don’t bear that opinion out at all. New England’s defense had a 38.4% pressure rate (12th in the NFL) while the Chargers came in at 16th with a 36.9% pressure rate per Sharp Football Analysis.

Switching to “No Blitz Pressure Rate”, the Patriots jump up to 11th overall with a 35.8% rate and the Chargers are 14th at 36.9%. Of course, the Chargers are very picky about when they blitz and who they blitz. They blitz at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL at just 18.9%.

Their defense prefers to generate pressure with their front and flood the secondary. Los Angeles was sixth in the NFL in “sub package rate” using Derwin James as that chess piece and allowing them to not get stuck in heavy packages. The Chargers are third in the NFL in “Light Box Rate” where they have basically dared opposing offenses to run against them and depend on their superior tackling ability.

Los Angeles played the second-fewest man coverage rate in the NFL at 12.9%--only the Panthers played more zone coverage. The Chargers were in zone coverage 81.3% of the defensive snaps. Playing two-high zone coverage so much, the Chargers are vulnerable across the middle of the defense, which should mean a heavy dose of targets for Stefon Diggs and tight end Hunter Henry.

The Chargers will allow opposing offenses to take the check-downs and work underneath all night long. They depend on the defense either making a play like a tackle short of the sticks on third down or pressure reaching the quarterback to stop the drive.

Tuipulotu brings the pass rush, but he is hardly the only one. Mack may be 34 years-old, but he still is one of the best technicians. Behind the duo is Odafe Oweh, who came over from Baltimore at the trading deadline and added 7.5 sacks in just 12 games in Los Angeles. Veteran Bud Dupree, questionable to play Sunday night, also has a pair of sacks.

The defensive line is not known for pushing the pocket and generating pressure. Teair Tart, Da’Shawn Hand and rookie Jamaree Caldwell are more there to occupy linemen to let the linebackers work. Daiyan Henley and Derwin James can bring the heat if necessary.

One defensive lineman who has brought the pressure is last year’s fourth-round draft pick Justin Eboigbe, the big body from Alabama. Eboigbe had six sacks this season after a quiet rookie season where he barely was on the field. He added 20 pounds over the offseason and has carved out a role as an interior pass rusher.

Beyond Derwin James, the rest of the Los Angeles secondary spends a lot of time on the field as the defense prefers light boxes (six or less defensive linemen/linebackers). Veteran Elijah Molden has been dealing with a hamstring injury for some time, but is expected to play on Sunday night and has been a key player for them all season.

Tony Jefferson is a ten-year veteran who started the season on the practice squad and has been vitally important in Los Angeles. Yes, he’s the one who knocked out Tyquan Thornton in the first Chiefs game and then flipped off the fans and was ejected. But he went from not being on the roster to playing almost 50% of the snaps.

The Chargers traded away safety Alohi Gilman for Oweh, opening the playing time for Jefferson and rookie R.J. Mickens. Mickens has played about 30% of the snaps and has been dinged up, but is athletic and is off the injury report.

Expect the Chargers to come out and try to bully the New England receivers. Jefferson, James and Molden are going to allow those short receptions and then try to jar the ball loose with big hits. The secondary is very hard-hitting and that will be elevated in the playoffs.

The linebackers for the Chargers hit hard as well.

Daiyan Henley (he’s number zero on the Chargers’ defense) plays like he’s a bullet shot out of a gun. He led the team in tackles and added 3.5 sacks as a blitzer. While the Chargers don’t blitz much, they are very effective when they do. James gets the attention as a blitzer, but Henley is the one more likely to be coming.

Denzel Perryman was suspended for the last two games of the season for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Cowboys’ receiver Ryan Flournoy while he was on the ground. Like any Harbaugh led team, they are going to try to bully on defense, and the New England offense needs to punch back.

For New England, they need to match that intensity from the Chargers’ defense and come out punching. With an aggressive, zone-defense like the Chargers run, the Patriots have experience in 2025 (despite all the whining in the media about the easy schedule) with these defenses.

After Buffalo played a ton of two-high zone schemes against Maye in the second half of their December showdown and slowed him in the second half of that game taking away the deep passing attack, Maye struggled mightily with two safeties deep and tight man coverage.

Although Maye’s struggle was due to not taking what the defense offered, the Ravens definitely took note of those struggles and attempted to replicate what Buffalo did by mixing the zone and man coverage and leaving the safeties deep to take away the big play ability from the offense.

Maye went out and lit up the Ravens secondary throwing for 380 yards and completing 70.5% of his passes and a pair of touchdowns and followed that up last week completing 90.5% of his passes for 256 yards and five touchdowns against the Jets before taking a break midway through the third quarter. Against Miami, he added 191 yards and a touchdown completing 77.8% of his passes and a touchdown.

If the Chargers are looking for a blueprint to stop Drake Maye and the New England passing attack, they’re going to have to do better than just copying Buffalo’s second-half game plan.

Stefon Diggs has playoff experience and is expected to be the leader of this young wide receiver room in the playoffs with Mack Hollins placed on injured reserve. Kayshon Boutte is fighting through a hamstring injury and popped up on the injury report this week and is questionable against Los Angeles.

Rookies Kyle Williams and Efton Chism have stepped up in the last quarter of the season while DeMario Douglas continues to have a small role on the offense. New England elevated practice squad wide receiver Jeremiah Webb from the practice squad.

Tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper both have playoff experience as well. But playoff experience only goes so far. The Patriots have a lot of young players, but playoff experience is not the end-all be-all.

What matters most is how those young players on offense respond. Drake Maye has been amazing all season long. The stats are great, but the leadership and growth throughout the season have led them to this point where they are the number two seed and hosting a playoff game.

Maye finished with a league-leading 72.0% completion percentage, 8.9 yards per pass attempt, 9.46 adjusted yards gained per attempt, 113.5 quarterback rating and 77.2 QBR. He also finished with 4,394 yards passing, 31 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions.

Jared Wilson is expected to return from his concussion and be back at left guard next to fellow rookie left tackle Will Campbell, who returned last week and was solid in his first game back. The question marks this week on the offensive line are center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Morgan Moses, who both were held out of practice mid-week due to illness.

Although both are expected to play, tight end eligible and swing tackle Thayer Munford has missed practice time with a knee injury and is officially questionable to play on Sunday night. As he has been so vital for the running game’s resurgence as the tight end in jumbo sets, his loss would be a blow to the offense.

Run Offense:

Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson was the primary back as he took advantage of an injury to Rhamondre Stevenson to have two games with over 140 yards rushing as a rookie. The second-round draft pick had 911 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground in 2025 with a number of highlight-reel explosive runs while also being stronger than anticipated between the tackles.

Fortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson returned to health after his own injury struggles this month and he has stepped up with a number of key plays down the stretch. It started in Baltimore where Stevenson had a 23-yard catch and the game-winning 21-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback win in Baltimore.

Stevenson continued his strong play versus the Jets adding a pair of touchdowns early in the game by pounding the rock in from a yard out in the first quarter and adding a 22-yard touchdown grab while totalling 47 yards rushing on just eight carries to go along with five receptions for 55 yards.

Last week in Miami, he took over the game from the opening drive by ripping off a nine-yard run, a 56-yard rumble and then let Henderson finish off the drive with a five yard touchdown run. Stevenson followed it up on the next drive by vulturing the touchdown as the Patriots drove down to the two yard line.

In the second half, he added a 20-yard run on their opening drive before making a beautiful 15-yard touchdown reception. He followed that up with a 35-yard touchdown run on the next drive before taking off the rest of the afternoon.

Back-up running back D’Ernest Johnson got on the field in garbage time the last few weeks but he finished with just 25 yards on 13 carries after being elevated from the practice squad after Antonio Gibson and Terrell Jennings were injured. More importantly, with the Patriots thin at wide receiver he stepped up as the primary kick returner down the stretch and had five returns for 128 yards (25.6 yards per return).

The Chargers’ run defense has had some issues in 2025, but overall the unit can be strong after years of being an Achilles heel in Los Angeles. A big part of that has been the defensive line, as the Chargers stay in nickel and dime defenses more often than most teams.

Rookie third-round draft pick out of Oregon, Jamaree Caldwell stepped in to handle the nose tackle role with 2024 starter Otito Ogbonnia and is massive, weighing in at close to 350 lbs and unmovable in the middle of the defensive line. He has relegated Ogbonnia to a back-up role since his midseason return.

Teair Tart and Da’Shawn Hand are the other big bodies making life difficult for the opposing interior offensive linemen. Both are 300 lbs plus and give the Chargers almost 1,000 lbs of beef in the middle of their defense. Eboigbe is often on the field in passing downs, not a run stopper.

On the edge, Mack, Tuipulotu and Oweh are okay at the edge but all often end up further in the backfield keying on the quarterback. It’s the pair of inside linebackers, Daiyan Henley and Denzel Perryman who are cleaning up in the run game.

Tart, Hand and Caldwell occupy the blockers and keep them from the second level. With free run, Perryman and Henley both excel at getting to the ball carrier and getting him to the ground.

The Chargers will get their hard-hitting safeties involved in the run defense as well. Derwin James often takes the role of third linebacker in run defense. Despite being just 215 lbs, James will take on any size ball carrier and more often than not will hold his own.

When the Chargers shut down the opponent’s running game, it is very simple: they win. In 2025, the Chargers are 8-0 when they hold opponents under 100 yards rushing. They are 3-6 when they give up over 100 yards. Digging deeper, they are 0-3 when giving up over 140 yards rushing.

LAC Offense vs NE Defense

The Chargers enter the playoffs with quarterback Justin Herbert having sat out week 18 trying to get his fractured left hand healthy. The offense in Los Angeles is run by long-time Harbaugh family flunky Greg Roman. Roman was offensive coordinator for four years in San Francisco with Jim Harbaugh, and offensive coordinator four years with brother John Harbaugh in Baltimore, and who also was the offensive coordinator in Buffalo with Rex Ryan for two years sandwiched in the middle.

Justin Herbert is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. He has size, arm strength, mobility and intelligence. He stepped in as a rookie after the Miami Dolphins did the Chargers a favor and drafted Tua Tagovailoa one pick before Herbert.

Rookie Omarion Hampton played at UNC for two years with Drake Maye and was a beast, piling up two 1,500 yard seasons on the ground with multiple 15 touchdown seasons. He was drafted in the first round at number 22 overall and had a good start before fracturing his ankle in week five. He returned in December but reinjured his ankle, but has stated he will play Sunday night.

The Chargers have a solid trio of tight ends with rookie Oronde Gadsden, former Seahawk WIll Dissly and former Jet Tyler Conklin. Despite that depth, the Chargers do not run a lot of multi-tight end sets, running the second-fewest in the NFL at just 15.3%. They use three wide receivers 52.1%of the time which is 13th in the NFL (per Sharp Football Analysis).

The Chargers are more of a fullback-centric offense, with fullback Scott Matlock on the field for almost 30% of the snaps. Matlock is fascinating as he was a defensive lineman coming into the NFL and still plays on defense occasionally.

For New England, this game is a test for the defense as other than Josh Allen, they have not faced a quarterback of the caliber of Herbert. While they have held opponents under 200 net passing yards an astounding ten times, some of those quarterbacks they faced were hardly top-tier.

They hope to have Harold Landry (questionable) back opposite K’Lavon Chaisson which should give the much-maligned pass rush a lift. With their strong cornerback trio including Pro Bowler Christian Gonzalez, free agent signing Clayton Davis and slot corner Marcus Jones, the Patriots could unveil a more man-coverage heavy defense.

While much has been made of the run defense, that unit is getting Robert Spillane back and also have Milton Williams who returned from injured reserve on the defensive line last week. While they will not have run-stuffer deluxe Khyiris Tonga but elevated young defensive tackle Leonard Taylor.

Pass Defense:

The Chargers’ pass offense features one of the most porous offensive lines in the NFL. They started training camp with two elite talents at left and right tackle with Rashaan Slater and Joe Alt. Slater was injured before the season began tearing his patellar tendon and being placed on injured reserve.

Alt moved to left tackle and was excellent, but was injured with an ankle sprain in week four and eventually returned but another high ankle sprain in week eight ended his season. They’ve cycled through Jamaree Salyer, Bobby Hart, Trey Pipkins and Austin Deculus due to injuries in that group.

As a result, the offense has been up and down all season. In addition, the interior offensive line was supposed to be the weakness for Los Angeles as former Boston College guard Zion Johnson, drafted in the first round in 2022, veteran Bradley Bozeman, and former Jets and Eagles guard Mekhi Becton have all struggled this season.

That offensive line has simply been offensive for the Chargers. In fact, the advanced metrics hate the Chargers’ offensive line. ProFootballFocus (subscription required) ranks them 31st of 32 teams in pass block grade. ESPN ranked them even worse, as they were dead last in ESPN’s pass block win rate.

Pressure rate allowed has the Chargers at 31st in the NFL at 42.4% (per Sharp Football Analysis). Factoring in the No Blitz Pressure Rate, Los Angeles improves to 30th in the league at 41.4%.

Johnson had his fifth-year option declined by the Chargers and is likely playing his last games in Los Angeles. He was tried at center earlier in his career and struggled. ProFootballFocus ranks him 51st out of 81 guards in the NFL.

Of course, that is better than Becton who ranks 75th among qualifying guards. Becton was a washout high-draft pick for the Jets and resurrected his career in Philadelphia at guard. Whatever he learned there, he seemingly forgot.

Center Bradley Bozeman has probably been the weakest link. The big center was once one of the better centers but age has robbed him of his effectiveness. He played four years in Baltimore and got paid by Carolina before landing in Los Angeles last year. He ranks dead last among centers (40th of 40) with a 51.7 overall PFF grade and was equally bad at pass blocking and run blocking.

Despite all that chaos up front, Justin Herbert has been a super human. Throwing for almost 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns behind that offensive line is probably one of the better quarterback seasons and a huge reason why the Chargers are considered a tough team to beat even with one of the worst offensive lines.

The Chargers have a lot of receivers that work across the middle and in the intermediate zone. Ladd McConkey’s stats fell off this year after an amazing rookie season where he had 82 receptions for 1,149 yards. His yards per catch dropped from 14.0 to 12.0 this season and had just 789 yards on 66 catches.

Long-time Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen returned to Los Angeles after an uninspiring year in Chicago. Although no longer the elite wide receiver he was previously with his six 1,000 yard seasons and five seasons of 100 or more receptions for the Chargers, he still is a crafty possession receiver and had 81 catches for 777 yards.

The Chargers spent a first-round draft pick on Quentin Johnson in 2023, one pick after Jaxon Smith-Njigba was grabbed by Seattle and right before Zay Flowers. The former TCU star has size (six-foot-two and 208 lbs) but has yet to translate that into production. He had 51 catches for 735 yards and eight touchdowns, but he has struggled with drops and had just a 46.4% success rate.

Rookie fifth-round draft pick Oronde Gadsden II (yes, his Dad was the Dolphins’ receiver in the late 90s/early 00s) had an early season stretch where he had 24 receptions and 377 yards and two touchdowns over a four game stretch. However, since that stretch he has pretty much been held in check and had less than 300 yards receiving combined in the other 11 games this season.

The back-up tight ends are solid receivers, but Dissly and Conklin had just 18 receptions for 198 yards combined. Tre Harris is the fourth receiver and the rookie second-round draft pick pitched in with 30 receptions for 324 yards and a touchdown in the regular season. He is a tough match-up standing six-foot-three and the former Mississippi receiver was a developmental pick but his play improved throughout the season.

New England is likely to have edge rusher Harold Landry and middle linebacker Robert Spillane again. For all the talk this week about the Patriots weak pass rush they were 19th in the league in pass rush win rate at 35% and Christian Barmore was seventh in the NFL in DT Pass Rush Win Rate and Williams was fourth before he went on injured reserve (per ESPN Advanced Stats).

Sharp Football Analysis rates the Patriots’ Pressure rate as 12th in the league at 38.4%, ahead of the Steelers, Bills, Falcons and Chargers. In No Blitz Pressure Rate they jump to 11th in the league at 35%.

In addition, the Patriots are tied for 8th in Light Box Rate, a big reason why their pass defense improved as 2025 went along and the run defense numbers dropped. The Patriots simply had five or more defensive backs on the field and focused on stopping the pass, not some sudden inability to stop the run.

Not having interior pass rusher Milton Williams back to team with Christian Barmore to attack that weak interior offensive line of the Chargers should be a huge advantage for the Patriots on Sunday night.

Without Landry potentially back on the edge, he and K’Lavon Chaisson will be tasked to win some of these individual match-ups against the weak tackle group of the Chargers. Getting to Herbert and containing him are two different things, as like Josh Allen he is a strong runner and is big and strong and difficult to bring down.

Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez are all solid in man-coverage and zone. Patriots fans seem spoiled by the good old days of Belichick playing a ton of man coverage. They still had the ninth highest man coverage rate per Sharp Football Analysis. New England should get pressure on Herbert and be able to stay with the Chargers’ receivers.

Run Defense:

The advance metrics are not fans of the Chargers’ blockers in the run game either. Pro Football Focus ranks the Chargers dead last in their run block grade (32nd of 32 teams). They were rated 31st (second to last) in the run block win rate per ESPN.

Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Chargers are 28th in yards before contact per running back rush at less than one yard (0.9). They are 26th in Rush Stuff Rate with the Chargers at 19.8%.

While the toughness and strength of the Chargers’ offensive line has been a topic of conversation on Boston media shows all week, I’m not sure where that is coming from--they clearly haven’t watched the Chargers on tape.

Jim Harbaugh wants his offenses to be built off running the football and play-action, but that was what happened last December against the Jerod Mayo Patriots when the Chargers had Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater at the tackle spots and dominated Keion White, Deatrich Wise, Davon Godchaux, Daniel Ekuale and bunch of guys not on the roster in 2025.

Even when looking at the run game, much of the production comes from a scrambling Justin Herbert. Their one game topping 200 yards on a Thursday Night Football game against Minnesota saw Herbert gain over 60 yards on the ground while the running backs combined for 36 rushes for 145 yards.

Week 13 against the Raiders saw the Chargers top 40 attempts as they played with a lead most of the game. Most of the yardage came on a Kimani Vidal 59-yard touchdown run. Other than that one run, he had 24 rushes for 67 yards in the game.

This isn’t a dominant unit in the running game, that’s the point I’m making. Omarion Hampton is a great talent, no doubt, when healthy and on the field and his return will give the Chargers’ run game a jolt. Kimani Vidal has done yeoman’s work filling in as the second-year sixth-round draft pick from Troy has piled up three 100 yard games, but other than his breakout performance against the Dolphins earlier in the year, the run game has been very inefficient.

Again, this comes back to the offensive line in Los Angeles. Herbert has 498 yards on the ground, running for his life but averages 6.0 yards per rush and is a real weapon when he tucks the ball away.

The Patriots have not been as efficient stopping the run, but with lighter boxes and fewer big bodies the Patriots don’t seem concerned. They are going to point to Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, Cory Durden, and Robert Spillane and some combination of Christian Ellis, Jahlani Tavai, Marte Mapu or Jack Gibbens and tell them they are going to be responsible to stop the run.

Having Williams and Barmore together on the defensive line is a huge boost to the run defense. Cory Durden, a former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants, has been a regular up front all year for the Patriots. He was plucked off the scrap heap before the season but has worked himself into a regular role and has been a steadying influence for the defensive line.

The Patriots will also need more from young veteran Eric Gregory and they already have elevated from the practice squad to help out up front. Leonard Taylor, who was elevated the past two weeks, is back on the game day roster to add valuable depth on the defensive line again this week.

On the edge, with Harold Landry injured, Anfernee Jennings has picked up the slack. While not a pass rushing force like Landry, Jennings has remained in New England through the Belichick and Mayo regimes and been one of the few defensive players kept by Mike Vrabel because he is a violent edge setter and their best run stuffing edge player.

K’Lavon Chaisson can set the edge as well, and rookie undrafted free agent Elijah Ponder has earned his playing time by being a force in the running game on the outside.

For all the negativity about the New England run defense, they should have an advantage over the Chargers and their weak offensive line, even with Los Angeles getting Hampton back. The biggest threat running the ball for Los Angeles is Herbert. That spy role will likely fall to Spillane if the Patriots are in man-coverage on third down and he will need to step back in ready to make big plays in the open field.

Stopping the Chargers’ rushing attack early can make them one-dimensional and give the edge to the Patriots as they tee off on the weak tackles and soft interior of the Chargers’ offensive line. While they will miss Tonga in the middle of the defense, getting Spillane back should be a huge boost for the New England run defense.

Other Factors:

The Patriots should have a significant advantage on special teams with Marcus Jones a second-team All-Pro returner back to return punts. The Chargers mixed and matched at kick and punt returns all season with a dozen players having had at least one kick or punt return. None of them have done enough to wrestle the job away and it has gone back to disappointing returner Derius Davis.

As a team, the Chargers rank 25th in kickoff returns with 24.74 yards per return average. On punt returns, they are 28th with 6.48 yards per return average and among the league leaders is throwing a hand up in surrender and calling a fair catch with 25 per The Football Database..

Davis handles kicks and punts and former Titans running back Hassan Haskins expected to be the second kick returner. A change-up for the playoffs could see shifty slot receiver Ladd McConkey back to return punts and lead running back Omarion Hampton returning kicks, as both have experience in the role.

New England is tenth in kickoff return defense allowing just 25.34 yards per kick return and they are no longer the worst but rank 23rd in punt coverage allowing 12.05 yards per return.

The Chargers coverage units are as bad as their return units. They are 30th in punt return coverage allowing 305 yards on 21 returns for a 14.52 average. Basically, every punt returner they’ve faced they’ve been at Marcus Jones level against the Chargers’ return unit. What happens this week with the real Marcus Jones back deep to return?

New England has the number one ranked punt return unit (17.29 yards per return) in the NFL. Marcus Jones has handled all the punt returns and rarely gets an opportunity as opponents have taken to punting short and high or out of bounds to keep the ball out of his hands.

The most dangerous returner and Pro Bowl snub, Jones had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took the next one 61 yards. Against the Giants, he broke open the floodgates with a 94-yard touchdown return.

The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.45 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami in the week two match-up that turned the tide of that game. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennnings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism as the returner with mixed results.

With the injuries at wide receiver, New England didn’t risk Chism and Williams on special teams and D’Ernest Johnson handled the kickoff returns last week. If Boutte is healthy, Chism and Williams may return to kick returns, or recently promoted from the practice squad Jeremiah Webb could play a role as he ripped off an impressive 59-yard kickoff return in the second preseason game.

Back to the Chargers, their kickoff return coverage has not been as horrible as their punt coverage, but it’s not much better. The Chargers are 26th and allow 27.68 yards per kick return.

In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has settled in after a rough start to his rookie season. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. He had a kick blocked (not his fault, it was the blocking) but came back and nailed a career-long 59-yard field goal before halftime last week.

Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. He had a great game against Miami with some booming punts and overall has averaged 47.4 yards per punt with only four touchbacks and 21 of 51 punts downed inside the 20 yard line. Rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine but has had some poor snaps on occasion in the punting game.

The Chargers have had issues with the long snapping that has affected some kicks by Cameron Dicker (aka, DIcker the Kicker). Josh Harris is the long snapper and a 14-year veteran, but he started the season on injured reserve after making a tackle on special teams in the preseason. He had been replaced by Rick Lovato, another 14-year veteran who retired when Harris returned.

DIcker was on a hot streak all season and those bad snaps by Harris caught up to them in the past two weeks of the season as they lost to Houston and Denver. He missed a huge extra point that would have cut the lead to three against Houston in the fourth quarter. He missed a 32-yard field goal with a poor snap before halftime as well.

The Patriots have a huge advantage on the Chargers in special teams. Kick and punt returns should swing New England’s way and there is a chance for a big play there. Every yard of field position is vital in the postseason, and the Patriots have a chance to swing it to their advantage on a cool Sunday night in Foxboro.

Game Pick:

The Patriots, at 14-3 and winners of the AFC East and second seed in the AFC, are only 3.5 point favorites at home against a wildly inconsistent Los Angeles Chargers team that benched their starters to rest last week and travel cross-country and play outside in New England in January out of the comfort of their dome in sunny southern California.

The respect for franchise quarterback Justin Herbert is what keeps the bettors keeping the point spread so low.

Herbert is special, but so is the second-year quarterback for New England. Herbert is on the road in the playoffs, where he is 0-2 in his career. The Chargers were stomped 32-12 last year in Houston as Herbert threw four interceptions and was sacked four times putting up a 40.9 quarterback rating.

In 2022, the Chargers and Herbert went into Jacksonville in the Wild Card round and had a 27-0 lead in the second quarter. The Jaguars roared back and won on a last second field goal 31-30 as Herbert and the Chargers collapsed in the second half.

The Patriots have made their run to the playoffs by not getting beat against inferior opponents (other than that rough start to the season in September) and there’s no reason to expect them to take their foot off the pedal here now that they are in the playoffs.

The Chargers have a good defense, but this is not the Texans or Broncos coming into Foxboro. The Chargers came east and lost to the Giants in September, escaped by the skin of their teeth against Miami and Tennessee in close games, and then got smacked 35-6 by the Jaguars in November.

The Chargers overall were 5-3 on the road and were the seventh seed for a reason: that offensive line is terrible, the defense is good but not a shutdown unit, and the special teams have serious issues.

New England has to stop the Chargers running game early and be able to move the ball on the ground against the Chargers’ defense to open up the windows in their zone defense. I don’t expect New England to blow out the Chargers, but I firmly believe that Drake Maye going against the Los Angeles secondary will be enough to get New England the win.

Herbert should make some plays to keep it close for a while, but the Patriots should have their way with the weak Los Angeles offensive line and pull away in the second half to win handily.

#7 seed CHARGERS 17 @ #2 seed PATRIOTS 30

Spread: Patriots -3.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -192, Chargers +160: Patriots

O/U: 46.5: Over

NFL Wild Card Weekend - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2026-01-10T11:47:00.004-05:00

The 2025 NFL Regular Season is in the rear view mirror at last and Wild Card Weekend is barreling towards us with a great weekend of games.

There are a number of great games and we’re ready for the Playoffs!

Each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and many appearances pre-pandemic as well).

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

FINAL REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

Last Week: Straight up: 8-8; Against the Spread: 9-7

Season Totals: Straight up: 168-103-1; Against the Spread: 130-139-3

Lock of the Week: 14-4

Upset Special: 5-14

Now, on to the Wild Card Weekend picks!

2025 NFL Week 18 Picks

SATURDAY 4:30PM

No. 5 Rams 24 @ No. 4 Panthers 20

Spread: Rams -10.5: Panthers

Moneyline: Rams -575, Panthers +425: Rams

O/U: 46.5: Under

SATURDAY 8:00PM

No. 7 Packers 24 @ No. 2 Bears 31

Spread: Packers -1.5: Bears

Moneyline: Packers -112, Bears -108: Bears

O/U: 45.5: Over

SUNDAY 1:00PM

No. 6 Bills 16 @ No. 3 Jaguars 23

Spread: Bills -1.5: Jaguars

Moneyline: Bills -122, Jaguars +102: Jaguars

O/U: 51.5: Under

SUNDAY 4:30PM:

No. 6 49ers 24 @ No. 3 Eagles 13

Spread: Eagles -4.5: 49ers

Moneyline: Eagles -218, 49ers +180: 49ers

O/U: 45.5: Under

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

No. 7 Chargers 20 @ No. 2 Patriots 24

Spread: Patriots -3.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -192, Chargers +160: Patriots

O/U: 46.5: Under

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

No. 5 Texans 20 @ No. 4 Steelers 16

Spread: Texans -3: Texans

Moneyline: Texans -170, Steelers +142: Texans

O/U: 39.5: Under

NFL Week 18 2025 - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2026-01-02T14:05:00.000-05:00

Happy Holidays, all, first and foremost. Now last week, wasn’t that some fun in the NFL slate of games?

The Christmas games were a little “meh”, as these match-ups probably looked great before the season. Commanders, Lions and Chiefs? So much for explosive offenses, especially with Josh Johnson starting in Washington, Goff and company in Detroit losing in a game where Max Brosmer and Minnesota had 3 net yards passing in the game, and finally Chris Oladokun putting up 66 yards passing in the Kansas City loss to Denver.

Saturday--going head-to-head with the CFP--the Texans battered the Chargers, barely holding on after jumping out 14-0, and the Ravens ran all over the Packers--and more importantly, Derrick Henry ran my fantasy football team into the finals (yeah, finals in week 18--don’t blame me, I’m not the commissioner).

Sunday’s slate saw the Seahawks defense hold down the Panthers, Joe Burrow getting ready for 2026 against the Cardinals, the Jaguars hold off the frisky Colts, and the Dolphins do their part to set up this week by beating the Bucs.

The Saints and Tyler Shough looked like the most improved team of the second half of the season beating the Titans while Drake “Drake Maye” Maye looked like the MVP as he led New England on six consecutive touchdown drives before calling it a day in the third quarter up 42-3 over the Jets.

The upset of the day was Cleveland holding off the impotent Aaron Rodgers and Steelers’ offense 13-6 in an old fashioned AFC North grudge match.

The late window had two games, first was the Giants helping out the Raiders by destroying them and setting them up for the number one overall pick. The Eagles and Bills played what from the boxscore looked like a gritty defensive battle but was actually for those of us watching the game was really just two sputtering offenses. Josh Allen missed on his throw to an open Khalil Shakir on the two-point conversion and Buffalo lost, clinching the AFC East for New England.

Sunday night was an epic offensive showdown as the 49ers barely outlasted the vastly improved Caleb Williams and the Bears. On Monday night, the Falcons shocked the Rams, holding off a late rally and playing spoiler and letting the 49ers and Seahawks battle it out for the NFC West and top seed this week.

Speaking of this week, this slate of games has some doozies. Saturday has the Carolina at Tampa Bay game, winner takes the NFC South--maybe! The pesky Falcons, playing on Sunday against New Orleans, could still spoil the party for Tampa if they win, so it is kind of a “win and in” game.

Saturday night is the aforementioned 49ers and Seahawks game, which has all of the number one seed, a bye, home field advantage through the playoffs implications up in the air for the winner.

Sunday early window features the Falcons trying to beat the red hot Saints, Cleveland and Cincinnati playing out the string, Indianapolis trying to affect Houston’s playoff seeding, Tennessee trying to do the same to Jacksonville, Green Bay--locked into the seventh seed--against Minnesota, and finally the yawn-fest Cowboys and Giants.

Buffalo doesn’t have much to play for versus the Jets, but the Patriots do as they host Miami and try to finish 2025 with 14 regular season wins after winning just four games last season.

The Chargers visit Denver and despite LA resting Justin Herbert, many think they have a chance to help the Patriots out and knock Denver from the top seed. Detroit plays Chicago as the Bears try to figure out where they slot in the playoff picture along with Washington at Philadelphia and the Eagles jostling for position like Chicago.

The Rams don’t have much to play for now after losing to Atlanta last week, but they host Arizona and finally the Chiefs play out a playoff-less string in Las Vegas as the Raiders try to lock up the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Sunday night is the real winner take all battle, as the sad-sacks of the AFC North battle as Baltimore and Pittsburgh try to weasel into the playoffs and get a home game against a far superior Wild Card team next week.

Each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and many appearances pre-pandemic as well).

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

Last Week: Straight up: 8-8; Against the Spread: 7-8-1

Season Totals: Straight up: 160-95-1; Against the Spread: 122-131-3

Lock of the Week: 13-4

Upset Special: 4-14

Now, on to the week eighteen picks!

2025 NFL Week 18 Picks

SATURDAY

PANTHERS 27 @ BUCCANEERS 29

Spread: Buccaneers -3: Panthers

Moneyline: Buccaneers -155, Panthers +130: Bucs

O/U: 44.5: Over

SEAHAWKS 27 @ 49ERS 24

Spread: Seahawks -1.5: Seahawks

Moneyline: Seahawks -120, 49ers +100: Seahawks

O/U: 49.5: Over

SUNDAY 1:00PM

COLTS 21 @ TEXANS 24

Spread: Texans -10: Colts

Moneyline: Texans -575, Colts +425: Texans

O/U: 40.5: Over

TITANS 20 @ JAGUARS 23

Spread: Jaguars -12.5: Titans

Moneyline: Jaguars -850, Titans +575: Jaguars

O/U: 47.5: Under

BROWNS 15 @ BENGALS 24

Spread: Bengals -7: Bengals

Moneyline: Bengals -360, Browns +285: Bengals

O/U: 44.5: Under

COWBOYS 29 @ GIANTS 27

Spread: Cowboys -5.5: Giants

Moneyline: Cowboys -245, Giants +200: Cowboys

O/U: 52.5: Over

PACKERS 20 @ VIKINGS 17

Spread: Vikings -6.5: Packers

Moneyline: Vikings -290, Packers +235: Packers

O/U: 37.5: Under

SAINTS 27 @ FALCONS 24

Spread: Falcons -2.5: Saints

Moneyline: Falcons -142, Saints +120: Saints

O/U: 43.5: Over

SUNDAY 4:25PM:

CHARGERS 12 @ BRONCOS 27 (LOCK OF THE WEEK)

Spread: Broncos -7.5: Broncos

Moneyline: Broncos -345, Chargers +275: Broncos

O/U: 39.5: Under

DOLPHINS 17 @ PATRIOTS 30

Spread: Patriots -11.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -675, Dolphins +490: Patriots

O/U: 45.5: Over

JETS 6 @ BILLS 17

Spread: Bills -8.5: Bills

Moneyline: Bills -425, Jets +330: Bills

O/U: 39.5: Under

CHIEFS 24 @ RAIDERS 20

Spread: Chiefs -5.5: Raiders

Moneyline: Chiefs -245, Raiders +200: Chiefs

O/U: 36.5: Over

LIONS 20 @ BEARS 30

Spread: Bears -2.5: Bears

Moneyline: Bears -135, Lions +114: Bears

O/U: 50.5: Under

COMMANDERS 10 @ EAGLES 20

Spread: Eagles -8.5: Eagles

Moneyline: Eagles -375, Commanders +295: Eagles

O/U: 42.5: Under

CARDINALS 27 @ RAMS 24

Spread: Rams -9.5: Cardinals

Moneyline: Rams -485, Cardinals +370: Cardinals

O/U: 47.5: Over

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

RAVENS 20 @ STEELERS 21 (UPSET SPECIAL)

Spread: Ravens -3.5: Steelers

Moneyline: Ravens -175, Steelers +145: Steelers

O/U: 41.5: Under

W2W4: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins - Week Eighteen 2025

2026-01-01T18:04:00.001-05:00

The New England Patriots’ most impressive offensive performance since Mac Jones’ rookie season lifted the Patriots to an easy 42-10 win over the New York Jets. Drake Maye had a historic day, completing 19 of 21 passes (one a straight-up drop by Kyle Williams that hit him between the one and the eight on his jersey) for 256 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, as the Jets had gone all season without an interceptions, Maye did not allow them to have their first of the season.

For those who don’t remember, rookie Mac Jones put up a pair of 50 burgers his rookie season, including 54 points against the Jets in week seven of the 2021 season, another 45 on the Browns in week ten and then 50 on the Jaguars in week 17 (which was right before everything fell apart).

The Patriots clinched the AFC East with that win last week in the wilds of East Rutherford, NJ after the Bills fell to the Eagles 13-12 later that afternoon as Josh Allen missed a wide open Khalil Shakir in the back of the end zone on a two-point conversion after rallying late to cut the Eagles’ lead to a point. It was the right call by Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott to go for two, the right play call by offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but the hobbled Allen just did not throw a catchable pass.

With the division in hand, the Patriots turn their eyes to the top seed in the AFC and a much-needed bye week. Like clinching the AFC East, they need help again to get to that milestone as they need the Chargers to upset the Broncos to get the number one seed. The Chargers are resting Justin Herbert for the playoffs, so the Football Gods need to smile on Foxboro once again as they did in the past for this to pass.

The Patriots will finish this already incredible and unprecedented 2025 NFL regular season Sunday in Foxboro against their AFC East rivals the Miami Dolphins--who are currently 7-9 and already eliminated from the postseason and have benched their franchise quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, in favor of seventh-round draft pick former Longhorns’ quarterback Quinn Ewers.

Tagovailoa, drafted by Miami one spot ahead of Justin Herbert, is in the first year of a four year, $212 million contract and the Dolphins could be paying him almost $100 million over the next two years to not play quarterback in Miami. Through two games, Ewers is statistically almost identical to Tagovailoa’s 14 game sample, which is pretty damning of the so-called franchise quarterback.

The loss to Buffalo in week 15 has turned out to be the wake-up call this Patriots team desperately needed. They had a much-needed come-from-behind win against Baltimore and then thoroughly dominated an inferior team on the road last week.

While the ten-game winning streak was a great story, but the Patriots were lucky to escape with wins multiple times against non-playoff teams during that streak as games against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Cincinnati were all games that they really should have lost considering how they played (throw the Tampa Bay game in that mix as well).

At 13-3, they are behind the 13-3 Denver Broncos for the top seed in the AFC due to tiebreakers, but they have a chance to win out and still have a shot at the first overall seed in the AFC and a bye with some help in week 18 by the Chargers who play Denver.

The Broncos lost last week at home against Jacksonville and face a tough test down the stretch. The Chargers are just a game back and they play each other in week 18. The Chargers, if they win and have the same record as Denver, they would win the West via the head-to-head tiebreaker having already beat Denver early in the season. If New England wins out, they get the top seed and the bye in that situation.

First and foremost for New England, they need to take care of business in New Jersey. The Jets are an obstacle in the road to the playoffs for the Patriots and they need to be all business on Sunday afternoon. The craziest thing is that the Patriots lose the tie-breaker to Denver due to their loss in week one to the Las Vegas Raiders. Who would have thought back on September 7th that losing to Geno Smith and Pete Carroll could cost the Patriots a bye week in the playoffs.

Last Week:

The Patriots went into East Rutherford, NJ one week after playing in a physical game in Baltimore and had their easiest win of the season.

Even though the Patriots were without starting left guard Jared Wilson, starting wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, starting defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, starting edge rusher Harold Landry, starting inside linebacker Robert Spillane and placed rookie defensive lineman Joshua Farmer and wide receiver Mack Hollins on injured reserve before the game.

Also, starting defensive tackle Milton Williams, despite being designated to return from injured reserve, did not suit up on Sunday against the Jets. Despite missing all these starters (and Vederian Lowe filling in at left tackle for Will Campbell) the Patriots came out with their most complete game of the season.

The offense started the game with six consecutive drives for touchdowns, ranging from six to 11 plays driving between 47 and 91 yards down the field. It wasn’t until it was a 42-3 game that the Jets made a stop and by then Joshua Dobbs was at quarterback.

The defense came out strong and forced a three-and-out, intercepted rookie quarterback Brady Cook, allowed a nine play and 49 yard drive before a rare Red Zone stop forced a field goal, and then finished the first half with a pair of three-and-outs.

The Jets finally scored in the fourth quarter when Breece Hall had a beautiful 59-yard touchdown run versus the New England backups, but the Jets sandwiched that touchdown with four turnovers on downs.

A huge concern in the game was the Jets’ special teams units, as their returners have multiple kick return touchdowns. New England’s special teams unit completed the trifecta of solid play holding kick returner Kene Nwangwu to a manageable 28.5 yards per return and three touchbacks. Also, both of punter Bryce Baringer’s fourth quarter punts resulted in fair catches.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

This week’s game is at 4:25 so that the Patriots and Broncos will play at the same time. This week the game will be broadcast again by FOX and can be seen locally on WFXT-TV Channel 25 in the greater Boston area and WNAC-TV Channel 64 in the greater Providence area. Unless last week, the Patriots get the “B” team with the more than competent Joe Davis set to handle play-by-play duties with the excellent Greg Olsen as the color analyst. Pam Oliver will work from the sidelines.

Olsen was replaced by Fox on their ”A” team in favor of Tom Brady last season, but make no mistake about it, he is arguably the best or second best analyst on television (I am a Kirk Herbstreit guy, but acknowledge that is my personal preference).

Sunday's game will be broadcast to a national audience on ESPN Radio. Steve Levy will call the game with Harry Douglas providing analysis. Dan Graziano will work the sidelines.

Yes, that is the former SportsCenter anchor and NHL play-by-play commentator, Steve Levy, calling the game. Levy has been the voice for ESPN Monday Night Football in the past and has also called college football and XFL games for ESPN/ABC. And, yes, that is former Titans and Falcons wide receiver Harry Douglas.

Key Stats:

The Patriots finished the regular season 8-0 on the road but are only 5-3 at Gillette Stadium so far in 2025. It feels like that was a completely different Patriots team that beat a completely different Dolphins team 33-27 earlier in the season in week two in Miami.

In that game, rookie kicker Andres Borregales missed two first quarter extra points and when Tagovailoa found Jaylen Waddle for an 18-yard touchdown, it became only a 12-7 lead. The Patriots had some bad two-minute defense as well before halftime, allowing Miami to march down the field in less than two minutes to make it a 15-14 game at halftime.

Miami took the lead after halftime on a pair of Riley Patterson field goals before Drake Maye led them to the lead scrambling away from Matt Judon and into the end zone after a 55-yard Rhamondre Stevenson catch-and-run set the Patriots up in the red zone.

The Dolphins retook the lead on a 74-yard punt return touchdown by Malik Washington, but the Patriots took it right back on the ensuing kickoff. Antonio Gibson turned around the game with a 90 yard touchdown return to put New England ahead to stay 30-27.

Borregales nailed a 53-yard field goal to make it 33-27 with 1:47 to play. Although Tagovailoa and the Dolphins had a chance, the offense imploded once they got into New England territory, as a false start, delay of game and then a pair of sacks by newcomers Robert Spillane and Milton Williams sealed the win.

On defense last week, the Patriots allowed more than 100 yards rushing for the seventh straight week after only two teams were able to rush for 100 or more yards during the first nine weeks of the season. The 164 yards rushing by the Jets after New England allowed 171 yards rushing to Baltimore and 168 yards rushing to the Bills makes for some ugly stats (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).

However, the Jets piled up 92 yards on the ground in the fourth quarter last Sunday when the Patriots already led 42-3. While the yards allowed rushing against Buffalo and Baltimore are concerning, no one is concerned about the back-ups allowing rushing yards to New York in a blowout.

The Patriots enter week 18 of the NFL season ranking fifth in points allowed and seventh in yards allowed, although the defense does not really feel like it is truly that effective. Going on advanced stats, the defense is tenth in yards per play allowed at 5.3 yards and tenth in points per drive allowed at 1.9 points. They are also about the same based on defensive EPA per play (expected points allowed per play) which measures overall efficiency of the defense by how much it reduces the opponent’s chance of scoring has the Patriots 11th in the NFL at 0.04, which feels a little more accurate (per Sharp Football Analysis).

The Patriots are tenth in the league in passing yards allowed as they’ve continued to pump up those stats against bad quarterbacks. As teams have had success running the ball, the pass defense has tightened up as the Patriots have not allowed a team to accumulate 200 or more total passing yards since week ten against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

The Patriots are 14th in net yards allowed per passing attempt and have allowed 24 passing touchdowns (14th in the NFL). Against the run, the Patriots are 16th now in yards per attempt allowed (4.3 yards per rush) and still only eighth in total rushing yards allowed. They’re also fourth in the NFL allowing just 11 rushing touchdowns this season.

The offense is averaging 28.3 points per game moving up to fifth in the league in points scored after dismantling the Jets last week, and New England is up to fourth (they were sixth as of last week) in the NFL in total yards as they approach 6,000 total yards of offense for the season..

New England is third overall in total passing yards and 13th in the league in total rushing yards. TreVeyon Henderson leads the team with 858 yards rushing with Rhamondre Stevenson behind him with 472 yards on the ground. In the passing game, Stefon Diggs has 82 receptions for 970 yards and is in the range of 1,000 yards receiving. Hunter Henry leads the team with seven receiving touchdowns.

Coming off a game with 90% completion percentage, over 250 yards passing and five passing touchdowns, Maye remains the completion percentage leader as he has produced a 71.7% completion rate and joined Drew Bledsoe and Tom Brady as the only New England quarterbacks to top 4,000 yards passing in a season (4,203 yards passing and counting currently). He has 30 touchdowns passing to just eight interceptions.

Maye remains first in the league in Yards per Attempt with a 8.9 yards average, first in Adjusted Yards gained per pass attempt (factoring touchdown passes and interceptions into the equation) at 9.37 and also first in quarterback rating at 112.9, and he is second to Brock Purdy (77.6) in QBR at 76.5

NE Offense vs MIA Defense:

The Patriots are facing a Miami Dolphins team this season that has massively underachieved on both offense and defense. After a strong second half of the season on defense last year under former Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans player and coach Anthony Weaver in his first year as defensive coordinator, after adding Kenneth Grant in the first round of the draft to last year’s first round pick Chop Robinson, much was expected of the Dolphins defense.

Miami was ravaged by injuries in the secondary as expected starters Artie Burns and Kader Kohou landed on injured reserve. Jalen Ramsey was traded for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Expected starter Storm Duck was injured in week one and then returned in week eight and was lost for the season with a knee injury.

Miami signed former Patriots and Raiders cornerback Jack Jones and former Bills and Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas off the scrap heap and they’ve served as serviceable starters all season. Rookie Jason Marshall and Fitzpatrick have stepped up in the slot and as depth and amazingly, the problem hasn’t been the depleted secondary.

The Dolphins’ defense ranks 21st out of 32 teams in points allowed (24.1 points per game) and total yards allowed, but they’re only 18th in passing yards allowed. The Dolphins have struggled against the run, 24th in the league in rushing yards allowed as they’ve allowed over 2,000 yards on the ground along with a 4.6 yards per attempt average.

The Dolphins are 5-0 when they allow less than 100 yards rushing and 1-9 when they allow over 100 yards on the ground. They also have stayed in games due to creating turnovers, as they rank 11th in the league having created 20 turnovers. The Dolphins are 7-1 when they win the turnover battle but 0-8 when they lose the turnover battle.

The Dolphins’ defense has actually been okay on third down, 13th in the NFL with a 39.4% conversion rate, although they’ve struggled on fourth down. They are 29th on fourth downs with opponents converting 74.1% of their attempts. In the Red Zone, the Dolphins are 17th in touchdown rate, allowing opponents to reach the end zone on 33 of 57 trips inside the 20 yard line (57.9%).

Pass Offense:

The Dolphins are middle of the pack as far as playing man and zone coverage. They struggle based on defensive EPA per play and are 25th in the NFL in yards per play allowed per Sharp Football Analysis. The advanced stats confirm that this is not a great defense going up against the Patriots this week.

Miami has been fortunate that Rasul Douglas has bounced back in 2025. He has 12 passes defended and a pair of interceptions and ProFootballFocus.com loves him, ranking him as the 13th best cornerback in the league. The former Eagles, Panthers, Packers and Bills cornerback was great in 2023 in Buffalo but was a liability in 2024 and was unsigned until Miami got desperate.

Jack Jones remains the gambler he was that drove Bill Belichick crazy and--along with his off-field issues--drove him out of Foxboro. After burning his bridges in Las Vegas, Jones has been serviceable but his penchant for biting on double moves has seen him give up a number of big plays in the passing game.

Minkah Fitzpatrick moves between safety and slot cornerback, with former Jets safety Ashtyn Davis and former Detroit Lions 3rd round draft pick Ifeatu Melifonwu playing at safety. Rookie cornerback Jason Marshall had his first NFL interception last week and a pair of passes defended in probably his best game of the season last week.

What the Dolphins do to try and stop Maye will be interesting. In week 15 against the Steelers, Miami challenged the limited passing game of Pittsburgh with a number of two-high-safety coverages in an attempt to force Aaron Rodgers to dink and dunk his way down field. Unfortunately, for Miami, he did just that leading them to a 28-15 win.

The next week they switched things up a bit more against the Bengals, but it didn’t matter much. The Bengals exploited the Dolphins linebackers in coverage against running backs and used their tight ends to stretch the field vertically and find seams. This is a game plan New England can copy with Tre’Veyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry (who returned to practice on Thursday).

The Dolphins’ pass rush was supposed to be a strength, but Chop Robinson--who looked so good at times last year has struggled mightily and has just four sacks. Matt Judon was let go after little production and Jaelan Phillips was traded to the Eagles at the trade deadline for a third round draft pick.

Veteran Bradley Chubb leads the team with 8.5 sacks but despite his renegotiated contract to get some guarantees and provide the team cap relief this year, his contract carries a $31 million cap hit next year and in 2027 and he could be playing his last game for Miami on Sunday.

The problem is there is not much depth behind Chubb. Cameron Good and Quinton Bell haven’t made an impact and with Robinson regressing, they may need to keep Chubb around in 2026 despite his production not meeting the cost of his contract.

In the middle, the pass rush used to be from Zach Sieler, one of the better interior penetrators. However, in 2025 that production hasn’t been there for much of the season from the 31-year old former Raven. After back-to-back ten sack seasons, Sieler has just 5.5 sacks (with 2.5 of those coming against the lowly Jets).

Rookies Kenneth Grant, Jordan Phillips and Zeek Biggers have taken on a larger role with Benito Jones struggling much of the year and now on injured reserve. After a tough start, the trio of rookies have been playing well in the past month and throwing their weight around up front and showing potential for the future.

Miami’s interior linebackers are both solid blitzers, as Tyrel Dodson and Jordyn Brooks may be their most complete positional group on the roster. Dodson has five sacks and Brooks has 3.5. Both fit in well with Anthony Weaver’s defensive philosophy of getting into the backfield quickly and they both contribute to the pass rush.

In addition, both have responsibilities in the pass defense, filling the middle of the field in the zone defense. Brooks has struggled at times in coverage, and has allowed 65 receptions on 85 targets for 665 yards and a 110.2 passer rating. Dodson has struggled as well, allowing 49 receptions on 60 targets for 479 yards and a 109.7 passer rating.

Brooks (hamstring injury) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday as did Minkah Fitzpatrick (calf injury). These are two leaders on defense and their inability to play on Sunday would be a huge blow to the Miami defense.

For New England, they couldn’t ask for a more productive passing game than the past two weeks after the loss to Buffalo. Maye bounced back from a rare poor performance against the Bills in which he threw for just 155 yards and completed only 60.9% of his passes (“poor” being relative, since he rushed for a pair of touchdowns and built a 21-0 lead in the game) with a vengeance.

Maye lit up the Ravens secondary throwing for 380 yards and completing 70.5% of his passes and a pair of touchdowns and followed that up last week completing 90.5% of his passes for 256 yards and five touchdowns against the Jets before taking a break midway through the third quarter.

What made the performance against the Jets so special was that Maye did it with just Stefon Diggs (six catches for 101 yards) with Mack Hollins placed on injured reserve and Kayshon Boutte out. Tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper stepped up, combining for five catches for 60 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Rookies Kyle Williams and Efton Chism stepped up as DeMario Douglas was slowed by a hamstring injury and played just nine snaps on offense with one reception. Williams played 85% of the snaps and contributed three receptions. Chism had his first reception and first touchdown while playing 62% of the snaps.

Douglas was a full participant in practice and should be on track to play versus Miami. Boutte was limited in practice this week as he continues working through concussion protocol but could be out there on Sunday.

Jared Wilson remained out of practice due to a concussion at left guard and that likely means he will not be cleared for Sunday. That puts Ben Brown back into the starting lineup. Brown has been competent and capable stepping in at guard or center. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell returned to practice and could be activated for Sunday, although kudos to Vederian Lowe who was fantastic filling in.

Morgan Moses and Thayer Munford are healthy again with Moses getting some regular veteran rest and Munford joining defensive tackle Christian Barmore and edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson suffering from illness, usually the flu working its way through the locker room.

What was most concerning was two new names on the injury report this week. Both tight end Hunter Henry (knee) and fullback Jack Westover (ankle) did not participate on Wednesday and while Henry returned to practice in a limited fashion on Thursday, Westover was out and both of their statuses will need to be monitored as far as their availability for Sunday’s matchup versus the Dolphins.

Run Offense:

Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson is in position to make a push for 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie. The second-round draft pick has 858 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground in 2025 as he has taken advantage of injuries to Antonio Gibson (placed on injured reserve after week five) and Rhamondre Stevenson (missed three games due to various injuries). He cleared concussion protocol before the Jets game and was the leading rusher, leading the way with 82 yards on the ground.

Fortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson returned to health after his own injury struggles this month and after he stepped up with a key 23-yard catch and the game-winning 21-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback win in Baltimore, he continued his impact play versus the Jets adding a pair of touchdowns early in the game pounding in from a yard out in the first quarter and adding a 22-yard touchdown grab while totalling 47 yards rushing on just eight carries to go along with five receptions for 55 yards.

Back-up running back D’Ernest Johnson got on the field in garbage time but had just five yards on four rushes. More importantly, with the Patriots thin at wide receiver he stepped up as the kick returner and had three returns for 77 yards.

The Dolphins’ run defense has had some issues in 2025, but last week versus the Bucs they had their fifth game allowing less than 100 yards in their last nine games. In those five games versus the Falcons (45 yards), Bills (87 yards), Saints (81 yards), Jets (65 yards) and Bucs (53 yards), they’re 5-0 when they hold teams under 100 yards rushing and 0-4 in those other games versus the Ravens, Commanders, Steelers and Bengals.

Inside linebacker duo Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson are everywhere in the run game. They are very aggressive in their pursuit and former Seahawks’ first-round pick Brooks leads the NFL with 174 combined tackles and 95 solo tackles. Dodson, who was a fixture in Buffalo before landing in Seattle has also been active with 121 combined tackles and 72 solo.

Brooks is on the injury report with a hamstring injury and missed practice during the week. His status would be a big loss as the drop-off to back-up and former Tampa Bay Buccaneer K.J. Britt is significant. They also have Willie Gay in reserve, but while the well-travelled veteran has started in the past in Kansas City, he has mainly played on special teams in Miami this season.

On the defensive line, rookie Kenneth Grant has been the key to the run defense. When the massive Michigan alumni in the middle of the defense is able to penetrate and disrupt the running game in the backfield, it makes things easy for Brooks and Dodson to clean-up and limit the opposing running games. Listed at 335 lbs. but more likely topping out at 350 lbs., the rookie is the key to whether Miami can get New England into third-and-long situations and off the field.

Ben Brown is likely to start at left guard with Wilson still in concussion protocol after missing last week’s game and likely to miss this game on Sunday. Brown, Mike Onwenu and Garrett Bradbury will have their hands full with Grant, Seiler, Zeek Biggers and Jordan Phillips.

On the edge, the veteran Bradley Chubb is a solid edge setter, but Chop Robinson has had issues being overaggressive and letting ball carriers out wide. Robinson is in concussion protocol after leaving the Buccaneers game early. Behind Robinson is Quinton Bell, who has bounced around the NFL practice squads since being a seventh-round pick in 2020 before finding a home in Miami in 2023 where he has bounced around from practice squad to roster.

Cameron Goode has also had an increased role in the Miami defense at the edge. The 2022 seventh-round draft pick has stuck in Miami as a core special teams player. He has only played 84 snaps on defense, but is a core-four contributor on special-teams.

The Dolphins’ safeties contribute in the run game significantly. While Minkah Fitzpatrick is often playing slot cornerback, he is a willing contributor in the run defense. The oddity for Miami is the playing time given to former Jet Ashtyn Davis. Davis is not very good, misses a ton of tackles, and takes playing time from rookie Dante Trader.

Ifeatu Melifonwu is more of the center fielder on the defense filling in at deep safety when Fitzpatrick is at cornerback. Ideally, Miami would have Fitzpatrick at safety and Melifonwu as a depth option. However, the more Ashtyn Davis and Melifonwu on the field, the better for the New England running game.

MIA Offense vs NE Defense

The Dolphins enter week 18 with franchise quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on the bench and seventh-round draft pick and former Longhorn Quinn Ewers leading the offense. While Ewers’ numbers haven’t been significantly different then Tagovailoa’s stat lines, he did not turn the ball over Sunday against Tampa Bay.

Ewers is on an audition to see if he can be a cheap bridge option to the next franchise quarterback in Miami. The failure of Taovailoa cost long-time general manager Chris Grier his job in Miami, but strangely enough head coach Mike McDonald has kept his job in Miami despite taking over a team that was supposed to be ready to compete in the AFC East.

McDonald took over a team that had won eight of their final nine games under Brian Flores in 2021 and was in position to compete for the AFC East title immediately. They added Tyreek Hill in 2022 but sitting in first place at 8-3 after week 12, McDaniel’s team lost five in a row before being a bad Jets team to sneak into the playoffs and lose to Buffalo.

“Tua was hurt” was the excuse, but in 2023 another late season collapse saw defensive coordinator Vic Fangio take the fall when the offense--with a healthy Tua--couldn’t top 20 points in three straight losses to close out the season. Last year, they used the “Tua Injured” excuse again despite a defense that was excellent in the second half of the season.

Somehow, this “offensive genius” in Miami has maintained his job by shifting the blame to Tagovailoa and trotting out the injury excuses (this time it is Tyreek Hill, although they were 1-3 when he got hurt). Jaylen Waddle has been inconsistent without Hill on the opposite side of the field to hold the secondary’s attention.

Mike McDaniel is an excellent run game coordinator for an offense. The run game in Miami remains the strength of the team. However, he has repeatedly failed in the pass game, and in all other areas of team building and culture in Miami. Patriots fans should be rooting for McDaniel to stay and keep Miami mediocre so they remain no threat at all to winning the AFC East.

In 2025 the Dolphins’ offense is 22nd in points and 25th in yards. In the passing game they are 25th in passing yards, 18th in net yards per attempt and only three teams in the league have thrown more interceptions.

The running game is tenth in yards and fourth in yards per attempt. Much of that is due to the speedy and shifty running back De’Von Achane, a home run hitter who can turn the smallest opening into an explosive play.

The Dolphins use a ton of motion and rank second only to the Falcons in motion rate at 67.4%. While using so much motion, the Dolphins also run a ton of play-action as they are sixth in the league at 17.4% (per Sharp Football Analysis).

For all the motion, play-action and trickery, it hasn’t helped much this year in Miami as defenses aren’t fooled by the trickeration. The Dolphins have struggled mightily on third and fourth downs, ranking 27th in third-down conversion rate at just 34.6% and 22nd in fourth down conversion rate at just 11 of 22 for 50%.

For New England, everything went right on defense as they made stops and created a turnover against the Jets before New York broke through for a touchdown while behind 42-3 in the fourth quarter after New England emptied the bench.

The Patriots used the game to bump up their defensive statistics as they now rank fifth in points allowed (19.4 points per game) and seventh in yards allowed. Yes, they will face better offenses in the playoffs, but other than the second Buffalo game a few weeks ago, the 27 points scored by Miami in week two (seven from a punt return) had been the high point of the season in points allowed.

On defense, the Red Zone struggles improved as the Jets managed three points on two trips. New England still ranks 32nd and opponents have 26 touchdowns on 37 trips for a 70.3% conversion rate. Their defense is 12th in third down conversion rate, allowing just 38.5% conversion and second in the NFL on fourth downs allowing just 34.5% conversion rate.

Pass Defense:

The Dolphins’ problems in the passing game are not the blame of the offensive line. They rank second best in pressure rate allowed at 30.4% and sixth in no blitz pressure rate allowed at just 30.6% (per Sharp Football Analysis). Some of that is due to Tagovailoa having been so rushed to get the ball out quickly to avoid any kind of contact behind the line of scrimmage.

Miami is 23rd in offensive EPA at -0.02 and 23rd in points per drive at 2.0. The contradiction is in their explosiveness on offense. They rank 13th in yards per play at 5.5 (the Patriots’ offense is second to the Rams at 6.1, if you’re wondering) and they are ninth in explosive play rate at 6.4% (and, yes, the Patriots’ offense is first in the NFL at 7.9%).

Part of the explanation is the explosiveness of running back De’Von Achane with his NFL leading 5.7 yards per rushing attempt and multiple big plays, including his role in the passing game as the second leading receiver with 488 yards through the air and four receiving touchdowns.

Add in speedster Jaylen Waddle, and the explosiveness is evident. Unfortunately for Miami, without Tyreek Hill, they have struggled to find a second receiving target. Hill played four games all year and is sixth in receiving yards for Miami 12 weeks later. Miami has received minimal production from Cedrick Wilson, Malik Washington, Nick Westbrook-Ihene and Tahj Washington.

Recent practice squad elevation Theo Wease has been the most productive receiver for Ewers. He had a 63-yard receiving touchdown last week versus Tampa Bay and had two 18-yard receptions the prior week against Cincinnati. The undrafted free agent from Missouri has decent size at six-foot-three and experience having played six seasons of college ball (four at Oklahoma and two in Missouri), but lacks explosiveness. Not to take anything away from him, but it was a coverage bust by Tampa leaving him wide open and unaccounted for as he just ran straight downfield on third and long on that touchdown last week.

At tight end, veteran Darren Waller un-retired and was supposed to ride to the rescue. Despite scoring four touchdowns in his first three games, his production dropped off as nagging injuries and attention in the Red Zone slowed him down. Waller was injured last week and his groin injury held him out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday, throwing his availability for Sunday into doubt.

If Waller cannot go, the Dolphins have former Broncos and Giants tight end Greg Dulcich waiting in the wings. Dulcich is a decent receiver and has five games with 40+ yards for the Dolphins already in 2025. Last week he caught his first touchdown since 2022.

The Dolphins have been great up front, spearheaded by center Aaron Brewer who has been arguably the best run blocking center in the NFL. The former Titan who is well known to Patriots’ head coach Mike Vrabel who put him on the 53-man roster as an undrafted free agent in 2020 and elevated him to a starter in 2022.

After letting Vrabel go, the Titans let Brewer walk where he landed in Miami as a free agent. Vrabel was effusive in his praise of Brewer in his time in Tennessee and famously said about him, “he’s tougher than a $2 steak.” Like Garrett Bradbury, he is a smaller interior lineman, but understands leverage and uses his explosiveness to get to the second level and spring big runs for Achane.

Although limited with a neck injury, Brewer is expected to play on Sunday. He is flanked by guards Jonah Savaiinaea on the left side and former Patriot Cole Strange on the right side. A rookie, Savaiinaea is a converted tackle who has improved throughout the season. Strange is never going to match his expectations and injuries have limited him, and he is the weak link on the line.

The tackles are where Miami are strong as former Houston Cougar and last year’s 2nd round draft pick Patrick Paul is very good in pass protection. On the opposite side, right tackle Austin Jackson is one of the best right tackles in the game. They lack quality depth on the offensive line, but that is just about every team in the NFL these days.

New England is likely going to be without edge rusher Harold Landry, middle linebacker Robert Spillane and defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga again on Sunday as the Patriots will be extra cautious to get them ready for the post-season. Also, Milton Williams was not activated last week and probably won’t play again this week.

The New England secondary struggled in the week two match-up against the Dolphins, but Christian Gonzalez was out injured and the Dolphins still had Tyreek Hill healthy. A lot has changed on both teams since Tagovailoa threw for 315 yards and threw two touchdowns against the Patriots defense in week two.

Not having interior pass rusher Milton Williams (still on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain) puts additional pressure on Christian Barmore to push the pocket from the interior. Barmore was out due to illness from practice on Wednesday, but with the news breaking of him facing assault and battery charges for a domestic dispute back in August,

Without Landry on the edge, K’Lavon Chaisson again is needed to step up and deliver pressure on the quarterback this week. Rookie end Joshua Farmer is on injured reserve and last week against New York Anfernee Jennings stepped in as the starter.

Undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder got the opportunity to step in on the edge and played 55% of the snaps. Rookie Bradyn Swinson also had his opportunity for extended playing time in the blowout win, on the field for 42% of the snaps.

Young veterans Cory Durden and Eric Gregory have picked up extra playing time without Milton Williams available. Second-year defensive tackle Leonard Taylor got an opportunity for the second week in a row and was on the field for 22 plays on defense last week against the Jets.

New England, middle of the pack in blitz rate so far in 2025, is in an interesting position as far as game-planning. With so many injuries again and no need to rush anyone back, they need to win and should get back to more man-coverage on the Dolphins’ inferior receiving corps.

Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez need to be up on the line of scrimmage and jamming the Miami receivers, especially Jaylen Waddle. Waddle gets up to speed so quickly that he needs to be disrupted and not be allowed a free release. Taking away the initial reads with a young quarterback will only help the pass rush get to Ewers.

Run Defense:

The Dolphins, like the Jets, Ravens and Bills in the last few games, are going to come out intent on testing the New England run defense. New England has struggled stopping the run as they’ve focused on opposing passing attacks and having more defensive backs in coverage. Add in missing run-stuffers like linebacker Robert Spillane and Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga up front, and Miami will be intent on controlling the tempo and keeping Drake Maye on the sidelines.

Miami features De’Von Achane in the running game, and with 1,350 yards rushing so far and a league-leading 5.7 yards per rush average, he is rightfully the focal point of the offense. A threat to break a run and show off his sprinter’s speed to the end zone, the Patriots will need to have levels of bodies in position to get him to the ground.

Achane showed up on the injury report this week with a shoulder injury. Going back over the film from the Bucs game, I didn’t see anywhere where the injury occurred. Achane was grinding out yards right up until the final non-kneeling possession. In fact, he was out and recovered the desperation onside kick attempt by Tampa Bay, leaping high in the air with both arms to snag the attempt.

Back-up Jaylen Wright has been solid averaging 4.6 yards per rush and has 265 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns in limited playing time. The fourth-round pick in 2024 out of Tennessee has improved on his rookie season and even had a 100 yard rushing performance against the Jets four weeks ago.

For all of the hype about former Oklahoma State running back and sixth-round draft pick Ollie Gordon during the summer, he has had a humbling rookie season. With the back-up running back spot locked up early in the season due to a training camp leg injury slowing Wright, Gordon never got going and has struggled to get playing time as Wright has been more effective.

Gordon has 190 yards on 61 carries, a 3.1 yards per attempt average. Despite winning the Doak Walker award as a sophomore at Oklahoma State when he rushed for 1,732 yards and 21 rushing touchdowns, Gordon fell to the sixth round of the draft after his production was halved and he finished 2024 with 880 yards rushing and added a DUI arrest. Unfortunately for Miami, he has not proven to be a steal. The good news is that he is still young and should get a chance as a backup if Wright is starting for Achane.

Fullback Alec Ingold is a solid blocker and with the strong offensive line, the Dolphins have transformed into a ball-control rushing attack. Against New England in week two, the Dolphins abandoned the run early in the game as Achane had just 11 rushing attempts and did most of his damage in the passing game.

Edge rushers K’Lavon Chaisson and Anfernee Jennings are both solid on the edge against the run, but youngsters Bradyn Swinson and Elijah Ponder have to be strong and set the edge if pressed into service as Miami will test them. With a dangerous back like De’Von Achanel in the opposing backfield, it is a priority to stop the Dolphins’ run game early and often on Sunday.

Linebacker Robert Spillane is already ruled out for the game and is a huge loss against the run-heavy Jets offense. With Spillane out, Christian Ellis, Jahlani Tavai and Marte Mapu must pick up the aggressive, but limited athletically, Jack Gibbens in the run defense.

New England allowed Breece Hall 111 yards rushing last week, but his 59 yard touchdown run came with the backups on the field. He had been bottled up well earlier in the game as the Jets fell into a hole they couldn’t dig out of.

Cory Durden, a former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants, has been a revelation all year for the Patriots. Plucked off the scrap heap, he has found a regular role and now is picking up extra playing time in Milton Williams’ absence. He has been a steadying influence for the young defensive line.

The Patriots added impressive rookie Joshua Farmer to injured reserve and big man Khyiris Tonga is expected to be out again so more pressure on Durden and Barmore to step up this week. The Patriots will also need more from Jeremiah Pharms and Eric Gregory. They may elevate from the practice squad yet again to add depth and Leonard Taylor, who has been elevated the past two weeks, is likely to play a role again this week.

For New England, this game will test their beat-up defense after the Jets passed on showing up at home in week 17. The Dolphins are travelling up north in January and the temperature should be in the 20’s and dropping throughout the evening. Starting at 4:25 means the sun will be down and it will be chilly in Foxboro.

Stopping Miami’s rushing attack early can get them out of rhythm and get Miami thinking about the plane ride back to Southern Florida and more temperate climates and starting their offseason. It will take a full team effort to slow down this dangerous rushing attack, but as Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both did to the Dolphins earlier this month, the Patriots should be able to break their spirit and slow them down.

Other Factors:

The Patriots faced a huge test with the Jets top-ranked special teams last week and passed with flying colors.. The kickoff coverage unit bounced back against the Ravens and Jets after the Bills used returner Ray Davis as a weapon piling up 41.0 yards per return. New England is tenth in kickoff return defense allowing just 25.29 yards per kick per The Football Database.

The Dolphins struck in the punt return game against the Patriots in week two with speed returner Malik Washington taking a punt 74 yards. The New England punt coverage has improved in the past few weeks as they have been near the bottom of the league. Currently, they are no longer the worst but rank 23rd in punt coverage allowing 12.52 yards per return.

Washington has returned all the punts but one this season, and averages 13.6 yards per return. He also returns kickoffs along with Ollie Gordon. D’Wayne Eskridge had been the primary kick returner but he landed on injured reserve. Gordon has just one kick return so far this season, so kicking to him could be the game plan.

With the injuries at wide receiver, New England didn’t risk Chism and Williams on special teams and D’Ernest Johnson handled the kickoff returns last week. Expect more of Johnson back there this week.

New England has the number one ranked punt return unit (17.29 yards per return) in the NFL. Marcus Jones has handled all the punt returns. He had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took it 61 yards. Against the Giants, he broke open the floodgates with a 94-yard touchdown return where the blocking allowed him to run untouched until the Scottish Hammer got a fingernail on him as the last man to beat.

The opportunities have been limited for Jones as teams just don’t want to risk giving him a returnable punt. Both the Jets and the Ravens the past two weeks didn’t dare give him an opportunity as all their punts were unreturnable.

In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales continues to settle in after a rough start to his rookie season. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. Since week two he has been perfect on extra points and has missed just three field goals, including one last week.

Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. He was no doubt aware of the Jets’ potential game-breaking ability on special teams and did not give them any return chances when he finally was called upon to punt when New England was ahead by over 30 points. Rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine but has had some poor snaps on occasion in the punting game.

Old friend Joe Cardona handles the long snapping for Miami. I haven’t seen any YouTube clips uploaded of bad snaps by Cardona, so it seems he has been fine this season in the role for Miami. Another former Patriot, Jake Bailey, handles the punting duties for Miami. Bailey has been in Miami for three years after having punted for four years in New England. He is averaging a career high 48.4 yards per punt.

Miami has well-travelled veteran kicker Riley Patterson holding down the job all season. He has played for six different teams in five NFL seasons with multiple stops in Cleveland and Detroit on his resume. He has kicked well, missing just two field goals and one extra point. His longest field goal this season was a career-high 54 yards.

Game Pick:

The Patriots, at 13-3 and leading the AFC East, are 11.5 point favorites at home against a wildly inconsistent Miami Dolphins team that benched its franchise quarterback and gave up six touchdowns to a checked out Cincinnati Bengals team two weeks ago. However, Miami showed some moxie last week playing spoiler against Tampa Bay and the Patriots are likely to not rush anyone back from injury with the playoffs around the corner.

The Dolphins players are booking vacations already once they get out of Foxboro on Sunday night but seventh-round draft pick and former Longhorn Quinn Ewers was solid against the Bucs last week. With this his last chance to show in his trial that he could be in consideration to compete for the starting job in 2026, Ewers wants nothing more than to make a statement against one of the top teams in the AFC.

The Dolphins aren’t the Bills or the Ravens. That said, they’re not as pitiful as the hapless Jets last week, either. The Patriots have made their run to the playoffs by not getting beat against inferior opponents (other than that rough start to the season in September) and there’s no reason to expect them to take their foot off the pedal here in week 18 with the top seed in the AFC and a bye week a possibility.

New England has to stop the Miami run game and be able to move the ball on the ground. Tampa couldn’t do that last week and lost. Cincinnati did just that the week prior (Miami was down 45-14 early in the fourth quarter in that game, remember, and piled up a bunch of garbage yards in the fourth quarter to skew the statistics).

I don’t expect New England to blow out Miami like they blew out the Jets last week, but I do firmly believe that Drake Maye going against the Miami secondary will be enough to get New England the win, but I expect the Dolphins to at least come out and compete--unlike the Jets last week. Miami may move the ball a little but the Patriots should pull away with a late cover against the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.

DOLPHINS 17 @ PATRIOTS 30

Spread: Patriots -11.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -675, Dolphins +490: Patriots

O/U: 45.5: Over

W2W4: New England Patriots at New York Jets - Week Seventeen 2025

2025-12-27T10:50:00.002-05:00

The New England Patriots’ won their most thrilling comeback victory since Super Bowl 51 (aka, the 28-3 game against the Falcons) as Drake Maye bounced back from a second-half collapse against the Bills the week prior to storm back from an 11-point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Ravens on a chilly Sunday night in Baltimore 28-24.

There was much talk about the officials, questionable defensive pass interference and offensive pass interference penalties called on the Patriots, and an egregious defensive pass interference penalty not called on Baltimore, but the Patriots showed that they learned a valuable lesson against Buffalo and fought until the end on Sunday night against a desperate foe fighting for their playoff life.

The Patriots are in position to clinch the AFC East with a win this week in the wilds of East Rutherford, NJ as they face the Jets. New England gets their first look at former Missouri quarterback Brady Cook as Justin Fields--who looked unstoppable on his first drive of the game in week eleven against the Patriots until offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand stopped calling designed quarterback runs--was put on injured reserve, likely ending his time in New York as the Jets seem prepared to eat the remaining $10 million guaranteed on his contract and take another swing a bridge quarterback or try to draft one.

The Patriots will finish the 2025 NFL regular season next week in Foxboro against their AFC East rivals the Miami Dolphins--who are currently 6-9 and already eliminated from the postseason and have benched their franchise quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, in favor of seventh-round draft pick former Longhorns’ quarterback Quinn Ewers.

The loss to Buffalo turned out to be the wake-up call this Patriots team desperately needed. The ten-game winning streak was a great story, but the Patriots were lucky to escape with wins multiple times against non-playoff teams during that streak as games against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Cincinnati were all games that they really should have lost considering how they played (throw the Tampa Bay game in that mix as well).

At 12-3, they are behind the 12-3 Denver Broncos for the top seed in the AFC due to tiebreakers, but they have a chance to win out and still have a shot at the first overall seed in the AFC and a bye.

Last Week:

The Patriots went into Baltimore and ended up in a bare-knuckle brawl. Figuratively, of course, not literally. The game was probably one of the most physical games I’ve seen New England in since probably 2019 or so.

The bad news? Those physical games take a toll. The Patriots have three players currently in concussion protocol: star rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, starting rookie left guard Jared Wilson, and starting wide receiver Kayshon Boutte.

Also, starting defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga is expected to be out on Sunday after he suffered a foot injury against Baltimore and had to leave the game. Slot receiver DeMario Douglas suffered a hamstring injury during the Ravens game that will likely sideline him as well.

Rookie defensive lineman Joshua Farmer, finally in line for significant playing time with injuries along the defensive line, injured his hamstring and was placed on injured reserve this week.

Right tackle Morgan Moses, who suffered a knee injury and was out during the first half against the Ravens, came back in the game and played through the injury in the second half when his backup at right tackle, Thayer Munford, also suffered a knee injury and couldn’t continue. Both right tackles could be out against the Jets.

Finally, cornerback Carlton Davis, who had been questionable for the Baltimore game, left the game on the second-to-last-defensive play with an apparent injury, though his status for Sunday is unclear. Backup Charles Woods, who has been a pleasant surprise in the secondary since Alex Austin mysteriously landed on injured reserve last month, injured his ankle and is questionable to play on Sunday.

Marcus Jones, Harold Landry, Christian Ellis and Davis were all on the injury report last week but played, so their status bears watching this week as well.

Oh, was I supposed to have good news? How about Milton Williams being designated to return from injured reserve and could play on Sunday? Yeah, that would be a boost to the defense. So would a return to health for starting linebacker Robert Spillane who could trend towards playing, but the Patriots may choose to be extra cautious with him and not risk him re-aggregating his ankle injury.

Beyond injuries, the important details from the game was the Patriots took a punch and punched back. Down 11 points in the fourth quarter, Drake Maye led back-to-back fourth quarter drives of 73 and 89 yards to take the lead. The defense made a pair of key stops forcing a punt and then forcing a fumble as the turnover allowed Maye to run out the clock and send the Patriots home with a hard-fought 28-24 victory.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

This week’s game will be broadcast by FOX instead of CBS and can be seen locally on WFXT-TV Channel 25 in the greater Boston area and WNAC-TV Channel 64 in the greater Providence area. Blame the Jets, as the Patriots get the “D Team” at Fox with Adam Amin handling the play-by-play duties with former Saints quarterback and terrible color analyst Drew Brees. Kristina Pink will work from the sidelines.

Amin is the television announcer for the Chicago Bulls and previously worked at ESPN. He’s actually not half bad and handles the game quite well. Drew Brees just does not belong in a broadcast booth, but after the drunken crimes of Mark Sanchez cost him his job at Fox, the network was desperate. Brees was on NBC for a year after retirement from playing, but he was so bad he was immediately out the door.

Sunday's game will be broadcast to a national audience on Sports USA. Larry Kahn will call the game with Brandon Noble providing analysis. Khan at least is the “A-team” announcer for Sports USA. The former play-by-play announcer for the MLB Angels is one of the best radio broadcasters. Noble was a star defensive tackle at Penn State and nine-year NFL player.

As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bob Socci on calling the play-by-play action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing bewildering noises and grunts and yelps that passes for game analysis around here.

Key Stats:

The Patriots continue to win on the road and are now 5-3 at Gillette Stadium and 7-0 on the road in 2025. The Patriots beat the Jets earlier in the season on a Thursday night home game. Coming off two straight tough wins against Atlanta and Tennessee, the Patriots trailed 7-0 after the first quarter.

The offense and defense woke up, and after three TreVeyon Henderson touchdowns, the Patriots won handily 27-14. They piled up 336 yards after a slow start and held the Jets to just 245 total yards (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).

On defense last week, the Patriots allowed more than 100 yards rushing for the sixth straight week after only two teams were able to rush for 100 or more yards during the first nine weeks of the season. The 171 yards rushing for Baltimore topped the 168 yards rushing the Bills had piled up the prior week.

The New England defense, with star defensive tackle Milton Williams on injured reserve and Robert Spillane out injured, has struggled with both the pass rush and run defense. While they are still seventh in points allowed and seventh in yards allowed, there are concerns on defense.

The Patriots are 11th in the league in passing yards allowed after the impotent Ravens passing offense threw for just 159 yards. As teams have had success running the ball, the pass defense has tightened up as the Patriots have not allowed a team to accumulate 200 or more total passing yards since week ten against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

The Patriots are 15th in net yards allowed per passing attempt and have allowed 24 passing touchdowns (17th in the NFL).

Despite Derrick Henry rushing 18 times for 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns, New England’s run defense measured by total yards allowed on the ground ticked up to sixth in league and they are third in rushing touchdowns allowed. They dropped from 12th overall to 14th in rush yards per attempt, allowing a 4.2 average.

Showing remarkable consistency, New England has scored between 23 and 33 points in every game since week five. The offense is averaging 27.3 points per game remaining seventh in the league in points scored, New England is sixth in the NFL in total yards as they passed 5,000 total yards of offense for the season..

New England is fourth overall in total passing yards and 16th in the league in total rushing yards. TreVeyon Henderson leads the team with 776 yards rushing with Rhamondre Stevenson behind him with 425 yards on the ground. In the passing game, Stefon Diggs has 76 receptions for 869 yards and is in the range of 1,000 yards receiving. Hunter Henry leads the team with six receiving touchdowns.

Topping 300 yards passing for the first time in his career, Maye remains the completion percentage leader as he has produced a 70.9% completion rate and is up to 3,947 yards passing. He has 25 touchdowns passing to just eight interceptions. He remains first in the league in Yards per Attempt with a 8.7 yards average.

Maye leads the NFL after week sixteen with a 73.4 QBR and has a 108.5 quarterback rating while averaging 263.1 passing yards per game. The MVP candidate needs a strong finish as competitors Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence are neck-and-neck with him.

NE Offense vs NYJ Defense:

The Patriots are facing a New York Jets team this season that has seemingly thrown in the towel on 2025. The defense--a strength during the Robert Saleh era--cratered last year almost immediately after his firing. This year, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks was fired before last week’s game and interim coordinator Chris Harris allowed the New Orleans Saints to pile up over 400 yards of offense in a 29-6 beatdown.

The Jets already traded away defensive stars Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardiner. Linebackers Jamien Sherwood (a disappointment this season after signing a hefty extension) and Quincy Williams (a free agent not expected to return) along with edge rushers Will McDonald and Jermaine Johnson are the remaining starters on defense from last year (Johnson was injured in week two last season and missed the remainder of the year) as the Jets have cleaned house.

The Jets’ defense ranks 30th out of 32 teams in points allowed, although they’re only 22nd in yards allowed. That puts some of the blame on that pathetic offense giving opponents good field position.

However, as has been repeatedly noted throughout the year, this defense struggles to create turnovers. They’re dead last in the NFL in turnovers with just four, and they have zero interceptions.

The defense is just 13th in passing yards allowed, but they’ve also allowed 27 passing touchdowns. The Jets are 28th against the run allowing over 2,000 yards through 15 games and a 4.4 yards per rush average.

The Jets’ defense actually does a decent job of getting the opponents off the field. Unfortunately, the offense keeps giving the ball back almost immediately and wears this unit down. New York is just ninth in third-down defense (36.3% third down conversion rate allowed), but 29th in fourth-down conversion rate (11 of 15 for 73.35 fourth down conversion rate allowed).

In the Red Zone, the Jets are 21st in touchdown rate, allowing opponents to reach the end zone on 34 of a whopping 57 trips inside the 20 yard line.

Pass Offense:

The Jets had one of the most talented and highly paid cornerback groupings last season with Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter. Reed was allowed to leave in free agency in the offseason, Carter was traded to Philadelphia at the end of October. Gardner was flipped to Indianapolis for a pair of first round picks a week later.

Now, the Jets are starting last year’s fifth-round draft pick Qwan’tez Stiggers, overpaid free agent signing Brandon Stephens, and undrafted free agent Jordan Clark from Notre Dame at the nickel. At safety, rookie fourth-round draft pick out of Alabama Malachi Moore and undrafted free agent from Fresno State Dean Clark are the starters.

Stiggers did not play college football, which makes for an awesome story. He played in the now dormant 7-on-7 FCF Canadian Football league and made the Toronto Argonauts after a tryout. He was spectacular and then starred in the East West Shrine Bowl catching the NFL teams eyes as he was draft eligible. The Jets snagged him in the fifth round and he made his mark on special teams last year before finally getting to start in December this year.

The Jets play a lot of man-coverage under Aaron Glenn, ranking sixth in the NFL with a 30.7% rate (per Sharp Football Analysis). They are middle of the pack in the NFL in sub package rate with an extra defensive back on the field 68% of the time. They’re 11th in the NFL in Blitz Rate, bringing extra rushers 27.9% of the time.

The strength of the New York defense is their edge rush, which seems odd since they are 29th in the NFL in sacks (25). However, they boast two young first-round draft picks in Will McDonald (2023) and Jermaine Johnson (2022). McDonald has been their best pass rusher with eight sacks so far this season. Johnson looked prime to break out last year but tore his Achilles in week two. He returned this year but injured his ankle in week one and missed a few games and has struggled to get back to his 2023 form as he has just three sacks.

McDonald has fought through knee and ankle injuries this season. Seemingly clear of the nagging knee injury, he popped back on the injury report this week apparently having re-aggravated his knee injury. He was declared out on Friday, so next in line is the underwhelming Michael Clemons, who had a career high 4.5 sacks last year but has just one this season.

After trading Quinnen Williams to Dallas, the Jets have struggled to get pressure in the middle of the defense. Jowon Briggs, a seventh-round draft pick by the Browns in 2024, was picked up in a preseason trade and has been the only interior lineman capable of pushing the pocket, leading the way with four sacks this season.

Last week, the Jets were carved up through the air by the New Orleans Saints and rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. They only allowed Shough one touchdown through the air (Gadget guy Taysom Hill threw the other), but he totalled 308 yards passing. The Jets did get to him three times for sacks and forced New Orleans to have to kick five field goals.

Beyond trading away two starters and swapping a competent cornerback for Brandon Stephens in free agency, the Jets are also missing rookie cornerback and third-round draft pick Azareye’h Thomas and trade acquisition Jarvis Brownlee, who are both on injured reserve. Starting safety Tony Adams and free agent signing Andre Cisco--who were expected to be the veteran leadership for this group--are both also on injured reserve.

The Baltimore game was a fantastic test for second-year quarterback Drake Maye as he was able to shake off some adversity and lead the Patriots to a come-from-behind victory on the road in prime time a week after they stagnated and couldn’t recover against the Bills the week before.

Maye topped 300 yards passing for the first time in his career (thank God I never have to hear about that ever again!) showing no fear of two-time All Pro and four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey, targeting him repeatedly in coverage. Although Humphrey had the only interception Maye threw, Stefon Diggs (nine catches for 138 yards) and Mack Hollins (seven receptions for 69 yards) repeatedly made plays in the passing game with Humphrey in coverage.

As usual, Maye got just about everyone involved, as Hunter Henry had six catches and a touchdown, Kyle Williams made another great play in the end zone winning on a beautiful 37-yard touchdown and Austin Hooper had a 26-yard catch.

Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas were both injured and left the Ravens game--Douglas with a hamstring and Boutte with a concussion. Hollins has shown up on the injury report this week with an abdomen injury. Douglas is still questionable before the game, but Hollins and Boutte--two extremely valuable outside receivers--are both ruled out for Sunday.

The offensive line gave up three sacks--all in the first half--and other than Maye’s fumble before the half, the sacks weren’t a big deal. He was under some pressure, but in the second half he was able to get in rhythm, especially in the fourth quarter, and frustrate the Ravens.

Jared Wilson is out due to a concussion at left guard and that puts Ben Brown back into the starting lineup. Not the powerful road-grader like the rookie has been, Brown is competent and capable stepping in at guard or center. New England also added Brenden Jaimes from the practice squad to the roster for another layer of depth at guard and center.

Right tackle was a concern after the Baltimore game as both starter Morgan Moses and backup Thayer Munford left the game with a knee injury. Rookie seventh-round draft pick Marcus Bryant should be in the mix as well, although it appears Moses and Munford should be good to go on Sunday.

The injuries at wide receiver are a concern. Returner Efton Chism, like Stefon Diggs and Douglas, is smaller and better in the slot. That is an undersized unit this week with only rookie Kyle Williams as the outside receiver with size and length.

The Patriots have Jeremiah Webb, John Jiles, and former Cowboys, Cardinals and Jets receiver Brandon Smith on the practice squad. One or more could be elevated for Sunday with Smith, despite his size and practice squad experience for four teams, the least likely as he and veteran running back Elijah Mitchell will need some time to acclimate to the offense enough to contribute.

Webb is a smaller receiver but played well in the preseason. Jiles had the requisite size and was on the practice squad all last season giving him the slight advantage for a potential elevation.

Run Offense:

Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson had been on fire in November and December before the Sunday night game in Baltimore. Limited to just three yards on five rushes, the dynamic game-changed exited with a concussion. He is in the protocol this week and his status for Sunday is up in the air, but he is more likely than not going to sit the game out.

Fortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson returned to health after his own injury struggles this month and he stepped in with a key 23-yard catch and the game-winning 21-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback win in Baltimore.

This was a game where the Patriots had 23 straight dropbacks to pass between the third quarter at 8:36 when Stevenson was stopped for no gain and his touchdown run. Like against Buffalo, the Patriots had seemingly given up any attempt to run the football, even though they were only behind by less than a touchdown most of the time.

Stevenson’s touchdown run hopefully was the wake-up call to offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels that a healthy run game is important--and especially will be in the playoffs.

Back-up running back D’Ernest Johnson got on the field for one offensive play on Sunday night although he didn’t get to touch the football. Steenson rushed for 51 yards on eight carries and Drake Maye had a 16-yard scramble as well.

The Jets’ run defense has had some issues in 2025, but last week versus the Saints they had their fifth game allowing less than 100 yards. Of course, they’re 0-5 when they hold teams under 100 yards rushing.

The Jets’ wins have been more about the opponent’s beating themselves. They beat Cincinnati 39-38 despite allowing 398 total yards to Joe Flacco and the Bengals offense, including 181 yards on the ground. They beat the Browns despite having just 42 net yards passing, scoring two of their touchdowns on special teams returns. Finally, their win against the Falcons when the defense allowed a Kirk Cousins offense to total 389 yards of total offense and 142 yards on the ground from Bijan Robinson.

Inside linebacker Quincy Williams is third on the team in sacks with 3.5 as a blitzer. Fellow inside linebacker Jamien Sherwood, given a 3-year, $45 million contract extension with $30 million guaranteed this spring and was briefly benched in October after struggling earlier in the season.

Sherwood, to his credit, has bounced back since the benching and been the Jets’ best run defender. In week sixteen against the Saints, he was everywhere on the game film making plays at the line of scrimmage. Rookie linebacker Kiko Mauigoa is not available to play with a neck injury.

On the defensive line, Harrison Phillips, a preseason acquisition via trade with the Vikings, has been a solid piece up front while the massive former Jaguar and Bengal Jay Tufele is also part of the rotation. Tufele has been on the injured list with a foot injury and was ruled out for Sunday. Philips has a nagging knee injury but isn’t expected to miss time.

The defensive line may not generate much pass rush, but they have had success against the run on occasion. One of those occurrences was on the Thursday night matchup against the Patriots in week 11 when they held them to just 65 yards rushing. The Patriots were without Stevenson and Henderson needed 19 carries to total the 62 yards, although he did score two touchdowns on the ground that night.

Again, the Patriots are in the same situation of not being able to get Stevenson and Henderson healthy at the same time. Stevenson should be more than capable of carrying the load for a week.

Jared Wilson was lost at left guard due to a concussion on Sunday night while right tackle Morgan Moses and backup Thayer Munford both were out of the game with knee injuries. Moses, one of the toughest players in the NFL, returned to the game at well less than 100% and gutted his way to the finish.

Ben Brown is likely to start at left guard with Wilson in concussion protocol and likely to miss the game Sunday. Right tackle is up in the air with both Moses and Munford limited in practice this week. If neither can go, rookie seventh-round draft pick Marcus Bryant would be next in line to start after being a healthy scratch last week.

NYJ Offense vs NE Defense

The Jets are on quarterback number three so far in 2025. Undrafted free agent Brady Cook has the job the rest of the way after injuries and ineffectiveness by Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields have led them to Cook.

Cook isn’t starting because he gives the Jets the best chance to win this week. He’s starting because the Jets need to improve their own draft position and evaluate if Cook can be the back-up quarterback of the future. Fields is on injured reserve and Taylor is 36 years old and there is absolutely zero reason he should be on the field for a 3-12 team building for the future.

Head coach Aaron Glenn brought former Lions pass game coordinator Tanner Engstrand with him to New York making the 43 year old a first time offensive coordinator. Engstrand has the Jets ninth in motion rate, using it 58.6% of the time. Play-action rate, however, is another story as the Jets are 30th in usage at just 12.3% (per Sharp Football Analysis).

The running game of Breece Hall (954 yards rushing) has been the only bright spot on offense this season as he has the Jets ranking tenth in rushing yards and eighth in yards per attempt (4.6 yards). Despite all the talk before the season of a running back committee, second-year back and former Wisconsin star Braelon Allen lasted just four games injuring his MCL on a kick return.

Last week the Saints focused on bottling up Hall (54 yards on 16 attempts) and challenged Cook to beat them through the air. Cook, who has one touchdown and six interceptions in three games, was not up to the task. He was sacked eight times and after the defense set the offense up on the second play of the game recovering a fumble, the offense could only muster a pair of field goals.

The Jets had one drive longer than 30 yards and failed to do anything after a 15-yard penalty and an unaccounted for Isaiah Davis running for 25 yards on a catch-and-run on a shallow crosser early in the second quarter to set-up a field goal, that was it for the Jets’ offense.

The struggle on defense on initial and early drives continued for New England last week after they allowed Baltimore to march down the field without any resistance and fell into a 7-0 hole. Forcing turnovers saved the Patriots, as they shifted momentum in the first half with the Derrick Henry fumble punched out by Jaylinn Hawkins. They ended the game when K’Lavon Chaisson ran down Zay Flowers and punched out the ball.

The Patriots struggled in the Red Zone on offense with an interception on their first drive inside the 20. Although not in the Red Zone, the Patriots were in field goal range in a tie game inside of 30 seconds before the half when Maye fumbled away the chance for a halftime lead. These are the situational football mistakes that Maye needs to learn from going forward as part of his continued development.

On defense, the Red Zone struggles continued as Baltimore went two-for-three scoring touchdowns each time inside the 20 yard line. New England ranks 32nd and opponents have 26 touchdowns on 35 trips for a 74.3% conversion rate. Their only “stop” was when the Ravens reached the Red Zone on third down before the half and kicked the tying field goal.

Pass Defense:

The Jets’ problems in the passing game start up front. The offensive line, despite high first-round draft picks on the left and right tackle positions, has struggled mightily in pass protection in 2025. First round draft pick in 2024 Olu Fashanu played better on the right side last year, but had to slide to the left side to make room for 2025 first round draft pick Armand Membou who is exclusively able to play on the right side of the line.

They both have growing pains but show promise of developing into a pair of foundational pieces in the future. They have some lessons being learned in pass blocking as both are much better moving and getting involved in run-blocking.

The interior line is where things went sideways. Former first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker tore his triceps in a blocking drill before the season, needing surgery and out of the year for the third time in his five NFL seasons.

Left guard John Simpson was supposed to be a glue piece after a strong 2024 season. Instead, the former Raven has likely played his way out of town with a huge step back this season. At center, 2023 second-round draft pick Joe Tippman was beat out by journeyman Josh Myers. When Vera-Tucker went out, Tippman became the right guard by default.

Despite a settled line that has been healthy and together almost all season, the Jets are sixth in pressure rate allowed at 39.9% (per Sharp Football Analysis). Some of that is due to mobile quarterbacks like Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor trying to extend plays and inviting pressure instead of getting the ball out on schedule, and especially with the inexperienced Brady Cook under center.

The Jets use a lot of pre-snap motion to try and help their limited quarterbacks before the play, ninth in the NFL at 58.6%. However, their lack of play-action rate (29th in the NFL at 12.3%) belies the need to help the offensive line and quarterback, particularly with a strong running back like Breece Hall.

Part of the lack of play-action rate is due to the offense running from the shotgun. With offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand part of the Detroit Lions/Dan Campbell system, the Jets are eighth in shotgun snaps at a 74.0% rate. Along with being in shotgun, the Jets are in three-wide receiver sets 67.6% of the time, the fourth highest usage in the league. Despite having three solid tight ends (when Taylor is healthy), the Jets refuse to play to their strengths and are 24th in multi-tight end sets at just 25.1%.

Top passing target and rookie second-round draft pick Mason Taylor is out putting additional pressure on the new young wide receiver group. With franchise wide receiver Garrett Wilson sidelined for the year, Adonai Mitchell (acquired in the Sauce Gardner trade), John Metchie (acquired from the Eagles in the Michael Carter trade) and Isaiah Williams (signed off Cincinnati's practice squad) are capitalizing by using the time to push for a future role on offense.

Mitchell is still only 23 years old, with great size, top-end speed, and excellent athleticism. The Colts gave up on him, however, because of the drops. All the tools, but hands of stone. He got behind Christian Gonzalez a few times in the first match-up but couldn’t complete the play. That was his problem in Indianapolis and it has carried over to the Jets.

While Mitchell has just 21 receptions in six games in New York, those came on 46 targets and he has a very low 43.5% success rate. The quarterbacks are part of the problem, but other than what appeared to be a breakout game versus the Falcons (eight catches on a dozen targets for 102 yards), he’s had just 177 yards combined in the other five games.

Metchie hasn’t been much better with his opportunity. He has 23 catches on 37 targets but only an 8.5 yards per catch average and a dismal 37.8% success rate. His lack of size and lack of explosiveness was exposed last week against New Orleans as he had just one catch for four yards on five targets. His best game may have been the first match-up versus New England where he had three catches for 45 yards. Since then, his success rate and production have cratered.

With Taylor out, Jeremy Ruckert takes on the top tight end role. The Jets recently extended Ruckert with a two-year extension keeping the solid blocker out of free agency after the season. Stone Smartt is more of the receiving tight end than Ruckert, who has never developed beyond a basic safety valve.

New England is without edge rusher Harold Landry, middle linebacker Robert Spillane and defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga on Sunday as all are out injured. Also, Milton Williams was not activated and remains on injured reserve and won’t play this week. Backup cornerback Charles Woods, who has been a solid contributor this season, is questionable for Sunday with a foot injury.

The New England secondary struggled against the Jets running their 3 by 1 formations on the Thursday night game getting wide receivers in match-ups with safeties. I am not sure why the defensive game plan was so stubborn to keep both Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez out of the slot on a wide receiver and wasted one or the other in coverage against a tight end or running back and let Metchie and Mitchell match-up in man-coverage against safeties Craig Woodson, Jaylinn Hawkins and Dell Pettus.

Not having interior pass rusher Milton Williams (still on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain) puts additional pressure on Christian Barmore to push the pocket from the interior. Without Landry on the edge, last week’s hero K’Lavon Chaisson needs to step up. Rookie end Joshua Farmer is on injured reserve and the depth up front remains thin.

Young veterans Cory Durden and Eric Gregory are expected to get plenty of playing time with Tonga and Williams out. Anfernee Jennings stepped in on the inside for a few snaps and played well against Baltimore. His play strength and instincts made up for his lack of size in his limited play time inside.

Whether it is fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson or undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder, New England is basically left with no choice other than to get their young and fresh legs on the field this week.

The banged-up Patriots’ defense needs to take advantage of this weak offensive line and pressure Cook and shut down the passing game. With the injuries in the front seven, that becomes a huge question mark.

New England, middle of the pack in blitz rate so far in 2025, may copy the strategy of the Saints last week and bring extra blitzers. The pressure caused the young and inexperienced passer to hold the ball too long and took too many sacks. Brady Cook was 2-for-6, 5 yards, 4 sacks vs the blitz (2.8 passer rating), per NFL NextGenStats.

Run Defense:

The Jets are going to come out intent on testing the New England run defense. New England has struggled stopping the run as they’ve focused on opposing passing attacks and more defensive backs in coverage.

Edge rushers K’Lavon Chaisson and Anfernee Jennings are both solid on the edge against the run, but youngsters Bradyn Swinson and Elijah Ponder have to set the edge with violence if pressed into service. With a dangerous back like Breece Hall in the opposing backfield, it is a priority to stop the Jets.

Linebacker Robert Spillane is already ruled out for the game and is a huge loss against the run-heavy Jets offense. With Spillane out, Christian Ellis, Jahlani Tavai and Marte Mapu must pick up the aggressive but limited athletically, Jack Gibbens in the run defense.

One week after James Cook piled up 107 yards on just 22 carries, Derrick Henry amassed 128 yards on just 18 carries. Like Cook, Henry found the end zone twice. However, the Patriots did exploit Henry’s spotty ball protection and Jaylinn Hawkins forced a key fumble in the first quarter changing the entire momentum of the game.

Expect a continuing big role for Cory Durden as the former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants seems to have found a regular role and now is picking up extra playing time in Milton Williams’ absence. The Patriots added impressive rookie Joshua Farmer to injured reserve and big man Khyiris Tonga is out.

The Patriots will need to elevate from the practice squad yet again, where the choices are Fabien Lovett, Jeremiah Pharms, and Leonard Taylor.

For the Jets, Breece Hall remains the man in the run game. For all their talk of a committee, second-year back Isaiah Davis hasn’t done enough to take on a larger role and steal snaps from Hall. Braelon Allen is on injured reserve but didn’t exactly do much in four games to establish himself in his second season with just 18 carries.

Hall is looking to surpass 1,000 yards rushing for the first time in his career this weekend, as he currently sits at 954 yards with two games remaining. Hall has only topped 100 yards rushing in three games this season, but all three were probably the handful of strong offensive performances all season.

Otherwise, teams have loaded the box and focused on slowing down Hall first and foremost before worrying about the passing game. New Orleans stacked the box and dared the Jets to beat them through the air by putting them in obvious passing downs and then bringing pressure.

Hall had 58 yards on 14 carries in the first match-up as the Patriots focused on bottling him up and kept him to a 4.1 yards per attempt average and a long run of 11 yards. Since that game, Hall has seen teams copy that strategy and his production has cratered. He has had 44, 68, 43, 23, and 54 yards on the ground in his last five games.

Worse still, his yards per attempt were just 2.8, 3.6, 3.1, 1.9, and 3.4 yards per rush in those games. This frustrating stretch to end the season could lead to a messy offseason for the Jets as Hall is clearly vital to the offense but an unrestricted free agent. The Jets can franchise tag him, but after all the losing and this difficult end of the season, Hall could force his way out of New York.

Despite the continuity up front on the offensive line, Fashanu, Simpson, Myers, Tippman and Membou have not had a lot of success with run blocking after a strong start to the season. Since November began, the Jets are averaging just 102 yards per game in their last seven games after averaging almost 144 yards per game in the first eight games in September and October.

For New England, this game will test their beat-up defense and the Jets do not want to have to abandon the run as they did against the Saints last week. Cook had 35 pass attempts, a scramble and took eight sacks, which was not the game plan for New York. Unless the Patriots’ beat-up defense imposes their will, the Jets will look to give Beece Hall and Isaiah Davis more than 19 combined carries.

Other Factors:

The Patriots kickoff coverage unit bounced back against the Ravens after the Bills used returner Ray Davis as a weapon piling up 41.0 yards per return. Last week, Baltimore had just a 20 yard return and a 29 yard kickoff return. New England is tied for eighth in kickoff return defense allowing just 25.08 yards per kick per The Football Database.

That is good, because the Jets have the top-rated kick return unit in the NFL. They are first with 30.06 yards per return. Isaiah Williams has a 30.2 yards per return average while running back Kene Nwangwu has a 99 yard touchdown return and averages 35.0 yards per return. Even Isaiah Davis averages 29.4 yards per kick return.

Punt coverage, which had been a concern going into the game for the Patriots’ special teams, allowed just one return for 11 yards to Baltimore last week after allowing just one return to Khali Shakir versus Buffalo for 12 yards. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but rank 23rd in punt coverage allowing 12.52 yards per return.

The Jets are good at punt returns as well, ranking seventh in the league at 13.41 yards per return average. Isaiah Williams is the primary punt returner and averages 14.1 yards per return. He has taken two punts back for touchdowns this season.

The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.44 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennnings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism as the returner with mixed results. It seems like Chism and Williams are the choices to handle the job for the rest of the way.

The number two ranked punt return unit (17.29 yards per return) in the NFL belongs to Marcus Jones as he has handled all the punts. He had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took it 61 yards. Against the Giants, he broke open the floodgates with a 94-yard touchdown return where the blocking allowed him to run untouched until the Scottish Hammer got a fingernail on him as the last man to beat.

The opportunities have been limited for Jones as teams just don’t want to risk giving him a returnable punt. The Ravens didn’t dare give him an opportunity as both punts were unreturnable.

Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. He is no doubt aware of the Jets’ potential game-breaking ability on special teams and will have to be careful with his placement and hang time. Rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine but has had some poor snaps on occasion in the punting game.

Old friend Nick Folk handles the kicking for the Jets and the 41-year old has continued to amaze as he leads the NFL with a 96.4% field goal success rate, with just one miss. That miss was over 50 yards, where Folk has hit seven of eight attempts from that distance.

Austin McNamara handles the punting and helps with kickoffs as well. He averages 47.0 yards per attempt, and has had plenty of practice with 64 punts so far in 2025. However, distance isn’t important with Marcus Jones back receiving, hang time and placement matter much more.

The Jets’ special teams coordinator (and former special teams star) Chris Banjo has elevated New York to one of the best overall units, excelling in returns and coverage and great kicking and punting.

The Jets beat Cleveland in week ten despite just 169 yards of offense due to a kick and punt return touchdown in the game and a pair of Nick Folk field goals. The Jets stole that game with special teams, New England cannot allow them to do that again this week.

Game Pick:

The Patriots, at 12-3 and leading the AFC East, are 13.5 point favorites on the road against a last-place New York Jets team that is Baltimore Ravens team that is 3-12 and looking ahead to the offseason. The Patriots are beat-up after tough, physical games against the Bills and the Ravens in back-to-back weeks.

The Jets are looking forward to the offseason as third-string quarterback Brady Cook has struggled mightily with one touchdown pass and six interceptions across three games. With two games left in his trial to earn a backup spot next season, Cook wants nothing more than to make a statement against one of the top teams in the AFC.

The Jets aren’t the Bills or the Ravens. That said, the Patriots have made their run to the playoffs by not getting beat against inferior opponents (other than that rough start to the season in September). I fully expect Mike Vrabel to get this depleted team ready to play and not overlook a potentially hungry and dangerous Jets team.

It may be ugly early on (I hope I am wrong), but I think New England will need to shake off another slow and frustrating start before the offense begins to bounce back on the road in the second half.

I think Maye will be enough, but something like a 13-10 or 13-13 first half is something I can see happening just because of so many new bodies on offense and defense for the Patriots. If they limit the Jets from big plays on special teams and take care of the ball, they should pull away with a late cover against the Jets on Sunday afternoon.

PATRIOTS 30 @ JETS 16

Spread: Patriots -13.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -1050, Jets +675: Patriots

O/U: 42.5: Over

NFL Week 17 2025 - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2025-12-27T10:39:00.001-05:00

Don’t you just hate it when you have a plan, and then things spiral out of your control and your best laid plans go up in smoke?

Yeah, me too. Unfortunately, I had a plan and even though Christmas Eve and Christmas are valid excuses, I had planned to get ahead of the Thursday games and have my picks posted since there were three Christmas Day games.

Now I don’t even want to go back to week 16 games…it seems like a million years ago.

Let’s check in on the Christmas games I had picked and have already been played:

Dallas wins but doesn’t cover.

Nailed that one.

The Lions didn’t show up versus the Minnesota defense.

Ugh. Not even close on that prediction.

The Broncos won but couldn’t cover against the checked-out Chiefs.

Pitiful performance by Denver--I expected better from the offense.

Anyway, each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and many appearances pre-pandemic as well).

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

Last Week: Straight up: 11-5; Against the Spread: 11-4-1

Season Totals: Straight up: 152-87-1; Against the Spread: 115-123-2

Lock of the Week: 12-4

Upset Special: 4-13

Now, on to the week seventeen picks!

2025 NFL Week 17 Picks

THURSDAY CHRISTMAS FOOTBALL

COWBOYS 38 @ COMMANDERS 34

Spread: Cowboys -7: Commanders

Moneyline: Cowboys -305, Commanders +245: Commanders

O/U: 50.5: Over

LIONS 32 @ VIKINGS 25

Spread: Lions -6: Lions

Moneyline: Lions -258, Vikings +210: Lions

O/U: 44.5: Over

BRONCOS 27 @ CHIEFS 0 (LOCK OF THE WEEK)

Spread: Broncos -12.5: Broncos

Moneyline: Broncos -900, Chiefs +600: Broncos

O/U: 36.5: Under

SATURDAY

TEXANS 20 @ CHARGERS 19

Spread: Chargers -2.5

Moneyline: Texans +105, Chargers -125

O/U: 39.5

RAVENS 16 @ PACKERS 24

Spread: Packers -2.5

Moneyline: Packers -142, Ravens +120

O/U: 40.5

SUNDAY 1:00PM

CARDINALS 20 @ BENGALS 24

Spread: Bengals -7: Bengals

Moneyline: Bengals -380, Cardinals +300: Bengals

O/U: 53.5: Under

STEELERS 22 @ BROWNS 20

Spread: Steelers -4.5: Steelers

Moneyline: Steelers -225, Browns +185: Steelers

O/U: 34.5: Over

SAINTS 25 @ TITANS 27

Spread: Saints -2.5: Titans

Moneyline: Saints -142, Titans +120: Titans

O/U: 39.5: Over

JAGUARS 27 @ COLTS 24

Spread: Jaguars -7: Colts

Moneyline: Jaguars -340, Colts +270: Jaguars

O/U: 46.5: Over

BUCCANEERS 27 @ DOLPHINS 24

Spread: Buccaneers -5.5: Dolphins

Moneyline: Buccaneers -258, Dolphins +210: Bucs

O/U: 46.5: Over

PATRIOTS 30 @ JETS 16

Spread: Patriots -13.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -1050, Jets +675: Patriots

O/U: 42.5: Over

SEAHAWKS 25 @ PANTHERS 24

Spread: Seahawks -7.5: Panthers

Moneyline: Seahawks -360, Panthers +285: Seahawks

O/U: 42.5: Over

SUNDAY 4:05/4:25PM:

GIANTS 19 @ RAIDERS 16

Spread: Giants -1.5: Giants

Moneyline: Giants -105, Raiders -115: Giants

O/U: 41.5: Under

EAGLES 20 @ BILLS 25

Spread: Bills -2.5: Bills

Moneyline: Bills -142, Eagles +120: Bills

O/U: 43.5: Over

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

BEARS 27 @ 49ERS 24 (UPSET SPECIAL)

Spread: 49ers -3: Bears

Moneyline: 49ers -148, Bears +124: Bears

O/U: 51.5: Under

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

RAMS 31 @ FALCONS 25

Spread: Rams -8.5: Falcons

Moneyline: Rams -470, Falcons +360: Rams

O/U: 49.5: Over

W2W4: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens - Week Sixteen 2025

2025-12-21T09:27:00.000-05:00

The New England Patriots’ ten game winning streak and two game lead over the Buffalo Bills evaporated in the cold New England weather as they blew an early 21-0 lead and 24-7 halftime lead against Josh Allen and the Bills.

There was much talk about the officials, questionable defensive pass interference penalties, but the Patriots had their share of stupid penalties and took their foot off the gas after a strong start on offense, defense and special teams and learned a valuable lesson about why the game doesn’t end in the NFL at halftime.

The Patriots are in position to lock up the AFC East even though they lost to Buffalo last week, as their match-up this week in Baltimore doesn’t look quite as scary as it did when the schedule came out as the Ravens are 7-7 and Lamar Jackson and the offense still don’t look quite right. Although they beat the Bengals 24-0 last week, they did not do much on offense scoring just two touchdowns.

The Patriots will close out the season with a trip to New Jersey to face the Jets in week 17--and who knows if it will be Tyrod Taylor, Justin Fields or Brady Cook at quarterback for that game--and then finish at home with the Dolphins--who are already be eliminated from the postseason and have benched their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa--in week 18. Tagovailoa is in the first year of a four year, $212 million contract and the Dolphins could be paying him almost $100 million over the next two years to not play quarterback in Miami.

The loss to Buffalo may be the wake-up call this team desperately needed. The ten-game winning streak was a great story, but the Patriots were lucky to escape with wins multiple times against non-playoff teams during that streak as games against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Cincinnati were all games that they really should have lost considering how they played (I guess you could toss the Tampa Bay game in that mix as well).

Those games could have all been losses and we’d have the 7-7 Patriots fighting for their playoff life against the 7-7 Ravens and the possibility of finishing 10-7. At the beginning of the season, I would have considered that the best case scenario for this Patriots team. Instead, at 11-3, they have a chance to win out and still have a shot at the first overall seed in the AFC and a bye.

The Broncos are at the top and 13-2 right now, but the Broncos face a tough test down the stretch as they’re just trying to hold onto the AFC West at this point as the Chargers are charging up the standings. The Broncos face the AFC South leading Jaguars this week, and then have an AFC West grudge match against the Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs in Kansas City before they close out the regular season in what could be for the division lead in the AFC West against the Chargers.

For New England, the formula is to clean up and correct what went wrong in the second half against Buffalo, take care of their own business with Baltimore this week flexed out into prime time on Sunday Night Football, and then finish strong against the weak sisters of the AFC East.

Last Week:

Where to start? After not losing a game since September 21st, the Patriots lost 35-31 to the Buffalo Bills. Apparently, if you pay attention to talking heads and so-called pundits, the season is over for the Patriots, they’ll be lucky to make the playoffs, they’re one-and-done even if they do make it, Buffalo is going to march to the Super Bowl unopposed, and Drake Maye shouldn’t be considered for the MVP any longer.

Hogwash.

One game. Heck, one bad half. It happens. It happens to good teams, great teams, and it happened to the GOAT himself, Tom Brady, many times in his career in New England. The overreaction and inability to assess a team over the entire period of time and not the last snapshot is frustrating to see, listen to and have to deal with in New England.

The sky is not falling. Yes, the run defense was not good. Yes, the kick return coverage was terrible. Yes, the offense got into a funk in the second half with a pair of three and outs and turning the ball over on downs without a first down on their final drive. But that is not how this team played the ten games prior and there’s no reason to think that they are somehow broken and can’t come back from this.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

The Patriots return to prime time with their game being flexed into the Sunday Night Football window. Fun fact: Pink was the first performer to perform the “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night” theme song in 2006 before being replaced by Faith Hill the next year and later Carrie Underwood.

This week’s game will be broadcast by NBC and can be seen in the Boston area on NBC 10 Boston and in the greater Providence area on WJAR-10. The game is also streaming on Peacock. The always affable Mike Tirico will handle play-by-play duties with Cris “Pro Football Focus Chairman” Collinsworth as the color analyst. Melissa Stark will work from the sidelines.

Sunday night’s game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. Ryan Radtke, the former voice of the Reno Aces, will call the game with former Falcons and Seahawks linebacker Derek Rackley providing analysis.

People forget, but Zolak did start a playoff game as quarterback in New England, filling in for an injured Drew Bledsoe for Pete Carroll’s 1998 Patriots in the Wild Card round against Jacksonville.

It was a 12-10 game early in the fourth quarter, but Mark Brunell hit Jimmy Smith for a 37-yard touchdown and that was basically the game. Zolak completed less than 50% of his passes and had a 50.4 quarterback rating but he didn’t get much help as New England rushed 35 yards on 19 carries.

The Sports Hub pregame show kicks-off at 8am for some reason with the always informative Alex Barth and Cerrone Battle. At 5:30pm, the Patriots Pregame show begins featuring the always annoying Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand and Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper leading up to handing it off to Socci and Zo.

Key Stats:

The Patriots continue to misunderstand how home field advantage works as they are now 5-3 at Gillette Stadium and 6-0 on the road in 2025 as they host the AFC North’s second-place Baltimore Ravens in what is a must-win game for the Ravens to stay in the playoff race.

On defense last week, the Patriots allowed more than 27 points for the first time this season, as Buffalo ran off five straight touchdowns and turned a 24-7 New England lead into a 35-31 Buffalo victory.

The New England defense, with star defensive tackle Milton Williams on injured reserve and Robert Spillane out injured, has struggled with both the pass rush and run defense. While they are still sixth in points allowed and sixth in yards allowed, there are concerns.

The Patriots are now 14th in the league in passing yards allowed and 13th in net yards allowed per attempt. Josh Allen only threw for 193 yards but had three passing touchdowns and no turnovers and a 123.1 quarterback rating.

The Patriots struggled against the run against Buffalo as well, as they gave up 107 yards rushing to James Cook and Allen added another 48 yards rushing. The Patriots jumped from third in yards allowed to fifth and still second in the league with seven rushing touchdowns allowed all season. They dropped to twelfth overall in yards per attempt, allowing a 4.1 average.

Despite losing to Buffalo last week, New England’s offense is averaging 27.3 points per game remaining seventh in the league in points scored, New England is sixth in the NFL in total yards as they passed 5,000 total yards of offense for the season (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).

New England is second overall in total passing yards. While 21st in the league in rushing yards, Josh McDaniels has not abandoned the running game as the team is sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts.

Despite a down week, Maye remains the completion percentage leader as he has produced a 70.9% completion rate and 3,567 yards passing. He has 23 touchdowns passing to just seven interceptions. He is first in the league in Yards per Attempt with a 8.7 yards average.

NE Offense vs BAL Defense:

The Patriots are facing a Baltimore Ravens team that has gotten off the mat after a 1-5 start. The defense bore a big part of the blame, giving up 41 points in an opening night loss to Buffalo and letting Detroit drop 38 points and Kansas City 37 points. Those three teams are top offenses in the league, while Houston (44 points) is far from a premier unit.

The defense turned it around after that rough start, holding the Rams to 17 points and then ripping off five straight wins out of their bye week and not allowing an opponent to reach 20 points in a game.

Their streak ended with the Bengals putting up 32 points and then the Steelers adding 27 the next week to deal the Ravens back-to-back losses. Inexplicably, the defense went into Cincinnati and shut out the Bengals last week.

The defense in Baltimore has some interesting stats, as they are top-ten in third-down percentage (eighth with 36.2% conversion rate) and also Red Zone defense (seventh with a 51.9% trips allowing touchdowns).

The Zach Orr defense is 15th in the NFL allowing an average of 22.9 points per game and 23rd in total yards allowed. They are 26th in passing yards allowed but have only allowed 19 touchdowns passing. Baltimore is a bit better against the run, 15th in yards allowed and 15th in yards per attempt.

The Baltimore third down defense will be tested by the New England offense which is sixth in the league on third down conversion percentage (43.1%) but have been excellent on fourth down attempts. They are 14 of 19 on their fourth down conversions for a 73.7% success rate for the season, falling to second in the league in fourth down conversion percentage after not converting their only attempt last week.

The tough Red Zone defense in Baltimore looms as a concern as the Patriots are 24th in Red Zone TD percentage (down from 14th a little over a month ago) with just 26 of 50 trips resulting in touchdowns (52.0%).

Pass Offense:

The Baltimore pass defense has settled down after a rough start to the season. Baltimore struggled early in the season as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud had their way with the defense. Credit the defensive turnaround when they started playing better against Matthew Stafford and Caleb Wiliams

Facing Tua Tagovailoa, J.J. McCarthy Dillon Gabriel/Shadeur Sanders and Tyrod Taylor was hardly murderers row, but considering some of the duds New England faced this season lining up under center, no one around here is taking anything away from the Baltimore defense for playing who was on their schedule.

The Ravens’ pass defense struggled against Joe Burrow and the Bengals in week 13 before shutting them out in week 15. In between, the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers hit some big shots downfield and uncharacteristically made plays downfield against the Ravens pass defense.

The Ravens are near the bottom of the NFL in blitz rate only blitzing 23.7% of the time (per Sharp Football Analysis). They are second in the NFL in sub package rate with an extra defensive back on the field 88% of the time.

Baltimore leans into the three-safety look versus an extra cornerback most of the time. With three excellent safeties, that makes sense. 2022 first-round draft pick Kyle Hamilton can cover in the slot, take on tight ends and running backs, or blitz as a swiss army knife of the defense. Rookie first-round draft pick Malaki Starks taking the free safety role has allowed Hamilton that freedom.

That third safety? The versatile Alohi Gilman? He was only named AFC Defensive Player of the Week last week. He's been a huge part of the Ravens' defensive turnaround since Baltimore acquired him for pass rusher Odafe Oweh in a midseason trade with the Los Angeles Chargers. Many analysts have pointed to the cap space freed up in the trade by Baltimore, but Gilman played in college with Hamilton and they work together seamlessly.

Cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins are a great one-two punch in the secondary and Baltimore will leave them in man coverage. They rank fifth in the NFL playing man coverage 31.6% of the time (per Sharp Football Analysis). The Ravens love to clog the middle of the defense with their safeties and linebackers in pass coverage and force teams to take their chances against their strong cornerbacks.

A possible depth issue could arise as third cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is injured and a game time decision. He has surprisingly been fantastic for Baltimore this season. Second-year cornerback T.J. Tampa is a huge downgrade compared to Awuzie and so this could be a huge break for New England if Awuzie can’t go Sunday night.

The other part of the Ravens’ defense that woke up in a big way last week was the pass rush. One week after not sacking Aaron Rodgers, they brought tremendous pressure on Burrow. While they sacked him three times, that pressure led to a pair of interceptions.

Rookie Mike Green leads the Ravens with 3.5 sacks and old friend Kyle Van Noy has just two in a dozen games so far. Interior defensive tackle and former UConn Husky Travis Jones has stepped up with the interior pressure as the Ravens desperately miss Nnamdi Madubuike. On the edge, the Ravens brought in Dre’Mont Jones from the Titans via trade and he and Tavius Robinson, who returned from injury last week

I don’t really know what to make of the Patriots passing offense coming off that Buffalo game. Getting to 400 total yards of offense is usually enough, however you get there. The Patriots had 246 yards on the ground thanks to two huge touchdown runs by TreVeyon Henderson. However, Drake Maye was just 14-23 passing for 155 yards with an interception on third-and-25 that pinned Buffalo inside the ten yard line and was basically a punt.

Yes, that play looked like DPI on Tre’Davious White to me, too, but if the officials don’t call it, nothing to do about it). Maye was also sacked three times with a costly one in the fourth quarter.

Most concerning about the pass game was that Mack Hollins received as many targets (eight) as Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas combined. That’s not a winning formula.

The offensive line gave up three sacks and Maye was under some pressure, but again they were not terrible by any measure against a good defense. Rookie left guard Jared Wilson returned from time off due to injury and was a big boost and a key component in New England having four rushing touchdowns.

The Buffalo defense was without top cornerback Christian Benford, but still shut down the passing game much of the day. Buffalo dialed up some fresh looks for Maye, who we should add is still only in his second season in the NFL and last season comes with an asterisk considering the mess under Jerod Mayo. This is still a young quarterback on a young team that has to learn and last week was a game that will help him long-term.

Buffalo showed different packages and disguised coverages pre-snap that caused Maye to hold the ball and doubt his reads. Credit Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich for making adjustments mid-game and throwing looks at Maye he wasn’t prepared for.

If Maye learns and bounces back this week against Baltimore, it can be a positive going forward.

Run Offense:

Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson is up to 773 yards rushing along with seven touchdowns as he had a breakout game with 148 yards rushing and two touchdowns on just 14 carries.

This was a game where again the running game disappeared along with the lead. After Buffalo scored to cut the lead to 24-21 in the third quarter, the ensuing drive was eight pass plays and no rushing attempts ending in the interception. On the next drive, Henderson took the ball 65-yards for a touchdown. Seems he could have used a few touches on the earlier drive.

Rhamondre Stevenson had only six carries but got 50 yards on the ground. Third running back D’Ernest Johnson didn’t get any touches, but Drake Maye ran in two touchdowns and had four scrambles all for touchdowns or first downs on his way to 43 yards rushing.

The Ravens’ run defense was gashed by Detroit in week three, but otherwise has held up fairly well. Since losing to Houston and allowing 167 yards rushing in week five, they’ve allowed 100 or more yards rushing in just four of their nine games and only once did a team top 120 yards.

The Ravens want to stop the run and force teams to get behind the sticks and throw into their heavy defensive back coverages. The run defense has all three safeties up in the box at times ready to step in and make a play. While Malaki Starks may be the least effective run-stuffer, Alohi Gilman and Kyle Hamilton play like linebackers and can stand-up to any running back in the NFL.

The linebacker unit took a hit with impressive fourth-round draft pick Teddye Buchanan placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL this week. Buchanan settled in as the starter next to veteran Roquan Smith and the former California Golden Bear was a solid zone defender and run-stuffer. Smith is a stud in the middle, and if the guards aren’t getting to him he can be extremely disruptive.

Behind Buchanan is Trenton Simpson, a third-round draft pick out of Clemson in 2023 who has lost his job as inside linebacker twice already in short NFL career. Simpson is a gambler who is often out of position. Josh McDaniels should be thinking about misdirection runs to get Simpson out of position and a couple big plays for TreVeyon Henderson on Sunday night.

For Baltimore, the run defense starts up front. Brent Urban and John Jenkins may not be household names, but I guarantee that the New England interior offensive linemen are well aware of these space-cloggers. In the middle is Travis Jones, who is getting attention for his improved pass rushing, but he has been a solid run defender since day one in the NFL.

The Patriots have been waiting for the run game to explode like it did against Buffalo. Unfortunately, the game got away from them and the running game was abandoned as Buffalo came back. This is something that happens with Josh McDaniels, and it is hard to justify taking the ball out of Drake Maye’s hands.

New England had 175 yards rushing in week seven against Tennessee and 177 yards against Cleveland the next week, but injuries slowed them down. While TreVeyon Henderson has trended up, Rhamondre Stevenson has taken a limited role but run more effectively with limited opportunity (and some competition).

Last week’s 246 yards against Buffalo is a bit of a situation where a good defense can struggle occasionally against the run, but Baltimore falls in that role as well. Running yards could be available for the backs and Drake Maye, but how long will McDaniels stick with the run game?

Those 246 yards were the most by New England in a game since week three in 2020 when quarterback Cam Newton, running backs Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, J.J. Taylor and end-arounds by wide receivers N’Keal Harry and Isaiah Zuber accounted for those 250 yards against the Raiders. That feels like a million years ago.

While earlier in the year it appeared the Patriots ran to set-up the play action passing, a week like last week could make New England lean into the run game more. The Patriots have the seventh most rushing attempts in the league despite being just 13th in total yards and 17th in yards per attempt at 4.3. How dominant was the big-play run attack last week? They were 27th in the NFL with a 3.9 yards per attempt average before the Buffalo game.

With Rhamondre Stevenson back to full health after his toe injury allows the Patriots to have their “thunder and lightning” running back rotation. With both Stevenson and Henderson having above-average receiving skills, the duo allows the McDaniels to dial up almost any play without having to sub out the running back. Hopefully for New England, that strong play from last week carries over.

BAL Offense vs NE Defense

Well, what Baltimore Ravens offense is showing up on Sunday night? The rushing offense that put up 406 yards rushing combined the past two weeks against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati or the rushing attack that had just 221 yards combined on the ground against the Jets and Bengals in weeks 12 and 13?

Baltimore has the fewest pass attempts and are 27th in passing yards and 23rd in passing touchdowns. The offense struggled earlier in the season with former MVP Lamar Jackson on the sidelines and Cooper Rush under center (Tyler Huntley was pretty good in his two game stint filing in during October) and Jackson’s collection of nagging injuries has slowed his production in the passing game and as a runner.

The Patriots have been so dependent on the defense being able to get off the field on third down and get the ball back to the offense. They struggled mightily after a strong start last week in Buffalo and have dropped from seventh to eleventh in the NFL now allowing 37.5% of third down conversions. Buffalo was eight of 14 on third down and converted their only fourth down attempt last week.

The struggle on defense in New England has remained to be the Red Zone where they rank dead last. Opponents have 24 touchdowns on 32 trips for a 75.0% conversion rate. Buffalo was four of four in the red zone, with New England getting their only “stop” as the Bills were inside the Red Zone when they kneeled at the end of the game to run out the clock.

Pass Defense:

The Ravens are middle of the pack in play action, motion, and shotgun usage. They are dead last in the NFL in three-wide receiver alignment at just 38% and that usage has dropped in the past month. Baltimore is second in the league in multi-tight end usage at 52.6% just 0.2% behind the Steelers (per Sharp Football Analysis). They do use a traditional fullback with Patrick Ricard and are seventh in multiple back rate just behind Buffalo.

New England has been criticized on the radio and television for not using man coverage as frequently as these talking heads prefer, but they are eighth in the NFL in man coverage. the extra secondary players look and prefer having multiple secondary defenders on the field (usually three cornerbacks and two safeties). The Patriots are fifth in the NFL as far as Sub Package Rate (five or more defensive backs) and any defensive alignment without their three cornerbacks on it does not bode well for the Patriots playing to their strengths.

Baltimore runs the passing offense through their tight ends and their speedy slot receiver, just like Buffalo last week. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are the pass receiving duo at tight end. Andrews has 40 receptions for 359 yards and Likely has 22 catches for 248 yards.

Andrews is the zone killer and Red Zone threat while Likely works vertically attacking the defense with more athleticism and speed. Charlie Kolar is the third tight end and blocker who is a sneaky good receiver if you sleep on him.

At wide receiver, speedy Boston College alumni Zay Flowers is a menace in the slot. He leads the Ravens with 71 catches for 959 yards. Flowers has 600 yards more than the second receiver on the team (Andrews). With 100 targets, Flowers is targeted more than all other wide receivers on the roster.

Rashod Bateman is the bigger receiver who is also their deep threat. He had been sidelined but should return this week. Veteran DeAndre Hopkins has lost a step and doesn’t have the athleticism of his youth, but he is savvy and can still find room in a zone and work the sideline with his long frame.

New England has to figure out how to handle Andrews and Likely while locking on to Flowers. Unless they get Baltimore in third and long situations, the Ravens are going to watch the tape of Buffalo and two and three tight end packages attacking the New England secondary and linebackers in coverage and copy that until the Patriots stop them.

The New England secondary played a ton of zone against Buffalo, leaving a spy to try and control the scrambling of Josh Allen. Allen still hurt them with a 20 yard run and had 48 yards on 11 carries (counting kneel-downs). Expect more zone as New England is going to try and limit a mobile quarterback again with Lamar Jackson.

Jackson is probably the most dangerous running quarterback in the NFL and he uses that threat to his advantage as a passer. Facing little man-to-man and extra defensive linemen and linebackers, he feasts on opposing defenses in the passing game by extending plays outside the pocket and giving his receivers time to work open.

The key to slowing Jackson is containing him in the pocket with disciplined edge rushers and interior pressure. With interior pass rusher Milton Williams on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and out for a while, the Patriots also have Christian Barmore questionable to play with a new knee injury making his status Sunday night unlikely to play.

Cory Durden, Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory are not even close to the pass rushing force that Williams or Barmore is for the Patriots. However, they need to find a way to contain Jackson and keep him from escaping the pocket and extending plays or running for first downs.

Harold Landry is still banged up and K’Lavon Chaisson has cooled after a strong start to the season. Whether it is fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson or undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder, New England needs to get the youngsters some opportunity to get their young and fresh legs on the field and not wear out Chaisson and Landry before the postseason.

This defensive front--so strong at the beginning of the season--has worn down due to injuries and lack of depth. The Patriots need to get these players some rest before the playoffs.

Baltimore thrives on the left side of the offensive line with left tackle Ronnie Stanley. Stanley is a beast still as a run blocker but has lost a step as a pass blocker. However, the veteran is still well above-average. Right tackle Roger Rosengarten is a development in progress who has his share of hiccups but is strong and improving.

Third-year guard Andrew Vorhees on the left and fourth-year pro Daniel Faalale on the right are usually solid when it comes to blocking for the run, but they struggle mightily as pass protectors. The loss of Williams and probably Barmore as well is a missed opportunity for New England’s strong interior to dominate.

Of course, the Ravens still have All-Pro center Tyler Linderbaum in the middle, who does a lot to cover for Vorhees and Faalale. The Ravens have rookie third-round pick Emery Jones who had seemed to be taking snaps from Vorhees but instead has been related to the bench. Veteran Laken Tomlinson has been added to the practice squad and could be elevated and suspended guard Ben Cleveland isn’t eligible to return until week 18.

All of this offensive line instability leaves Baltimore as the fourth-worst offensive line in pressure rate allowed (41.0%), just behind the Jets, Chargers and Browns. In no blitz pressure rate the Ravens are third-worst, jumping ahead of the Jets per Sharp Football Analysis,

The Patriots’ defense needs to take advantage of this weak offensive line and pressure Jackson and shut down the passing game. With the injuries in the front seven, that becomes a huge question mark.

At least New England should have the advantage with their strong secondary. Christian Gonzalez can help out on the tight ends with his length but may be responsible for the deep threat Bateman. Veteran Carlton Davis (questionable to play and on the injury report) will likely take Deandre Hopkins if he goes on Sunday night when they play man coverage with Marcus Jones (on the injury report this week but indicating he will play) seeing a lot of Zay Flowers.

The loss of Robert Spillane in the middle of the defense takes away a key pass defender as well, as he has matched up against tight ends in coverage all season. Christian Ellis, Jahvani Talai and Jack Gibbens are tough, but not natural coverage linebackers. This may be a week where Marte Mapu and newly signed Chad Muma take snaps on passing downs.

Run Defense:

The Ravens are going to come out intent on testing the New England run defense. Why not? No Milton Williams, Christian Barmore questionable and likely a game time decision, and other than Khyiris Tonga there are questions about the depth of the New England interior defenders. This run defense was springing leaks before Milton Williams went on injured reserve and struggled last week against Buffalo.

Tonga and Cory Durden provide beef up front, but the Patriots need to set the edge not just to slow the running backs but also quarterback Lamar Jackson. Edge rushers K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry (who is questionable with a lingering knee injury) are solid setting the edge, although New England may trade off pass rush for edge setting and playing more Anfernee Jennings, who is their best edge run defender.

Linebacker Robert Spillane is already ruled out for the game and like last week is a huge loss. Spillane is the heart and soul of the defense in the middle handling assignments and above-average as a pass defender beyond his hard-hitting run-stuffing ability. With Spillane out, Christian Ellis, Jahlani Tavai and Jack Gibbens pick up more snaps.

The New England run defense has struggled since week ten when Tampa Bay rolled (113 yards), and then they struggled against the Jets (140 yards), the Bengals (120 yards), the Giants (111 yards) and last week against Buffalo (168 yards).

The Buccaneers offensive line was winning up front and making room for Sean Tucker and Rachaad White. The Jets were a load with Justin Fields and Breece Hall before they inexplicably stopped using Fields as a dual threat runner. The Bengals took advantage of New England losing Khyiris Tonga and already missing Milton Williams to pile up 120 yards on just 23 carries. The Giants were led by former Bills running back Devin Singletary rushing for 68 yards with Tyrone Tracy adding 36 yards on the ground.

Last week saw Allen make plays with his legs and pile up 48 yards rushing. James Cook piled up 107 yards on just 22 carries. New England kept Cook from making any explosive runs (long of 12 yards) he still found the end zone twice.

Expect a continuing big role for Cory Durden as the former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants seems to have found a regular role and now is picking up extra playing time in Milton Williams’ absence. Without Barmore, the Patriots have rookie Joshua Farmer on the 53-man and the Patriots will need to elevate from the Practice Squad, where the choices are Fabien Lovett, Jeremiah Pharms, and Leonard Taylor.

Baltimore has a one-two punch of running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Lamar Jackon. Henry remains one of the few true RB1s as he gets the ball repeatedly and rarely is off the field. He already has 1,125 yards and ten touchdowns in 14 games. At six-foot-two and 252 yards, there are few running backs as difficult to bring down as King Henry.

Lamar Jackson has run the ball less this season due to his assortment of injuries, with the ball tucked and headed up field. Allen had 78 yards rushing last week on just nine carries. With 12 rushing touchdowns and 487 yards on the ground, Allen is a threat not only to extend plays and make plays in the passing game, but a threat to make an impact rushing the ball.

Baltimore will give Henry occasional rest with running backs Keaton Mitchell and Rasheen Ali. Mitchell is a burner and big-play threat with the ball in his hands. He had 66 yards on the ground last week versus Cincinnati and with Justice Hill on injured reserve last week he should continue getting opportunities.

Baltimore also features second-year running back Rasheen Ali playing as the third down back. He’s a solid chip blocker and receiver but hasn’t had many opportunities on the ground.

The offensive line in Buffalo is much better run blocking as the Ravens are fifth in the NFL in yards allowed before contact per rush at 1.7 yards. Getting bodies on Henry before he gets up to speed is essential to slowing him down. If he is not being touched until two or three yards downfield, it is going to be a long day for New England.

For New England, this game will test their beat-up defense and Baltimore is unlikely to abandon the run even if the New England run defense starts strong. With the third-ranked run offense in the NFL, the Ravens are going to be a handful for New England.

Other Factors:

The Patriots kickoff coverage unit dropped from fifth in the NFL before the Buffalo game to 11th per The Football Database, New England was allowing just 23.96 yards per return average before getting lit up by Ray Davis who repeatedly gave the Bills great field position averaging 41.0 yards per return.

Punt coverage, which had been a concern going into the game for the Patriots’ special teams, allowed just one return for 12 yards. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but rank 24th in punt coverage allowing 12.60 yards per return.

The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.18 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism as the returner with mixed results. It seems like Chism and Williams are the choice to handle the job.

In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has really settled in after a rough start to his rookie season. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. Since week two he has been perfect on extra points and has missed just a pair of field goals. Borregales hit all four extra points and a 36-yard field goal versus Buffalo.

Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. Rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine but has had some poor snaps on occasion in the punting game.

Tyler Loop handles the kicking for Baltimore and the sixth-round draft pick has been fantastic for the Ravens, missing just two extra points and two field goals all season. Both misses were over 50 yards.

Jordan Stout handles the punting and is averaging 50.9 yards per punt. The former fourth round draft pick in 2022 (yes, that’s not a typo) upped his game this year. However, distance isn’t important with Marcus Jones back receiving, hang time and placement matter much more.

Running backs Rasheen Ali and Keaton Mitchell handle the kickoffs and rookie and former Colorado Buffalo LaJohntay Wester handles all the punt returns. The Ravens are 15th in kick return average (25.97 yards average) and ninth in punt returns (12.47 yards average) per the Football Database.

Head coach John Harbaugh always has strong special teams units and this year is not different. The punt return defense is fifth in the NFL allowing just an average of 7.05 yards per return. They are eighth in kickoff return coverage allowing just a 24.95 yards per return average.

Game Pick:

The Patriots, at 11-3 and leading the AFC East, are three point underdogs on the road against a second-place Baltimore Ravens team that is 7-7. The Ravens looked great beating up on the woebegone Bengals last week, bouncing back from getting it handed to them by the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers.

The Patriots blew a 21-0 and 24-7 lead to Buffalo as Drake Maye struggled, even though the offense ran for 246 yards. The defense struggled against the run while Buffalo did not have to throw the ball much.

Like Buffalo last week, the Ravens need the win desperately. The Patriots need to match the intensity and not have these breakdowns on both sides of the ball after a strong start.

Unfortunately, I was right that the Bills would win last week. However, I am not part of the media that overreacts to the first loss since week three against a team that is solid top to bottom on both sides of the ball and has won the AFC East five straight years.

The Ravens aren’t the Bills. The Patriots have yet to lose on the road. I expect Mike Vrabel’s team to get off the mat after being punched in the mouth and punch back.

It may be ugly, but I think New England will bounce back on the road again this week.

PATRIOTS 22 @ RAVENS 18

Spread: Ravens -3: Patriots

Moneyline: Ravens -148, Patriots +124: Patriots

O/U: 48.5: Under

NFL Week 16 2025 - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2025-12-20T16:44:00.001-05:00

Week fifteen of the 2025 NFL season is over and two huge injuries last week potentially impacted the playoffs as a pair of superstars were sidelined with torn ACLs. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Green Bay Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons both exited their respective games.

The Chiefs were eliminated from the AFC Playoff picture and Green Bay saw the Chicago Bears retake first place in the NFC North. Those injuries have a huge impact on 2025 and also 2026.

Of course, that was just a small part of week fifteen.

The week had kicked off with the reeling Buccaneers losing to playoff-eliminated Falcons on Thursday. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, the Carolina Panthers decided they didn’t want the pressure of first place in the NFC South and they lost to the Saints.

Denver beat the Packers while the Chiefs lost to the Chargers. The Bears crushed Cleveland while the Jaguars went out and demolished the Jets and cost defensive coordinator Steve Wilks his job.

Buffalo came back from a 21-0 deficit in Foxboro to beat the Patriots and make things interesting in the AFC East. The Ravens shut out the Bengals and Washington hurt their draft position holding off the Giants.

A second shutout saw the inept Raiders fail to put up a point against the Eagles. The Rams held off the Lions in a high score thriller, and the 49ers outpaced the Titans. The Vikings crushed the Cowboys playoff hopes and the Steelers ended the Tua Era (error?) in Miami.

Now onto this week’s games to see if we can top the drama and action of week fifteen (but maybe leave the big, season-ending injuries behind).

Thursday Night Football features the Rams and Seahawks in a showdown for first place and potentially the first round bye in the NFC. Amazon Prime may have hoped before the season for a big game in week sixteen, but with Seattle and Los Angeles alternating between each other for the most impressive team in the league.

Saturday afternoon in the early window is a game that looked great before the season started but turned into a potential dud with the NFC East leading Eagles going to Washington. Saturday night has another great game with the NFC North leading Bears hosting the Packers in a rematch of the Packers win two weeks ago.

Sunday’s early window has a battle for supremacy in the NFC South with the Bucs visiting the Panthers. The Bills go to Cleveland and the Chargers visit the Cowboys as the two AFC second-place teams need to win to keep up the pressure on the division leaders.

The rest of the early window games are battles for draft positioning with the Bengals facing the Dolphins, the Jets visiting New Orleans, Minnesota in the wilds of New Jersey to face the Giants and the Kansas City and Gardiner Minshew visiting the Titans.

The later window has two of the most disappointing teams of the NFC, the Falcons and Cardinals, facing off in the desert. The Jaguars visit Denver in a potential AFC Championship Game preview. The Steelers go to the motor city to take on the Lions and the Raiders’ horrible offense are in Houston to face the Texans’ mighty defense.

Sunday Night Football features a flexed game with the Patriots headed to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

The week wraps up on Monday Night Football with the 49ers visiting Indianapolis to take on Grandpa Rivers and the Colts.

Each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and pre-pandemic as well).

Check out this week’s episode as we recapped week thirteen, handed out our weekly awards and aired our grievances, played “Truth or Exaggeration”, and of course all the game predictions and prognostications with our bold predictions--it is available here.

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

Last Week: Straight up: 10-6; Against the Spread: 6-10

Season Totals: Straight up: 141-82-1; Against the Spread: 104-119-1

Lock of the Week: 11-4

Upset Special: 4-12

Now, on to the week sixteen picks!

2025 NFL Week 16 Picks

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

RAMS 17 @ SEAHAWKS 16

Spread: Rams -1.5: Seahawks

Moneyline: Rams -115, Seahawks -105: Rams

O/U: 44.5: Under

(edit: I was right about the close game and Seattle covering the spread, but I expected both defenses to allow fewer points.)

SATURDAY

EAGLES 30 @ COMMANDERS 17

Spread: Eagles -6.5: Eagles

Moneyline: Eagles -285, Commanders +230: Eagles

O/U: 44.5: Over

PACKERS 22 @ BEARS 24

Spread: Packers -1.5: Bears

Moneyline: Packers -130, Bears +110: Bears

O/U: 46.5: Under

SUNDAY 1:00PM

BILLS 30 @ BROWNS 9 (LOCK OF THE WEEK)

Spread: Bills -10: Bills

Moneyline: Bills -550, Browns +410: Bills

O/U: 42.5: Under

CHARGERS 27 @ COWBOYS 24

Spread: Cowboys -1.5: Chargers

Moneyline: Cowboys -112, Chargers -108: Chargers

O/U: 49.5: Over

CHIEFS 20 @ TITANS 19

Spread: Chiefs -3.5: Chiefs

Moneyline: Chiefs -192, Titans +160: Chiefs

O/U: 37.5: Over

BENGALS 31 @ DOLPHINS 21

Spread: Bengals -1.5: Bengals

Moneyline: Bengals -125, Dolphins +102: Bengals

O/U: 50.5: Over

JETS 10 @ SAINTS 17

Spread: Saints -4.5: Saints

Moneyline: Saints -218, Jets +180: Saints

O/U: 40.5: Under

VIKINGS 19 @ GIANTS 21 (UPSET SPECIAL)

Spread: Vikings -3: Giants

Moneyline: Vikings -142, Giants +120: Giants

O/U: 43.5: Under

BUCCANEERS 20 @ PANTHERS 23 (OT)

Spread: Buccaneers -3: Panthers

Moneyline: Buccaneers -148, Panthers +124: Panthers

O/U: 45.5: Under

SUNDAY 4:05/4:25PM:

JAGUARS 20 @ BRONCOS 24

Spread: Broncos -3: Broncos

Moneyline: Broncos -155, Jaguars +130: Broncos

O/U: 45.5: Under

FALCONS 30 @ CARDINALS 27

Spread: Falcons -2.5: Falcons

Moneyline: Falcons -135, Cardinals +114: Falcons

O/U: 47.5: Over

STEELERS 17 @ LIONS 30

Spread: Lions -7: Lions

Moneyline: Lions -310, Steelers +250: Lions

O/U: 51.5: Under

RAIDERS 6 @ TEXANS 30

Spread: Texans -14: Texans

Moneyline: Texans -1450, Raiders +850: Texans

O/U: 38.5: Under

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

PATRIOTS 22 @ RAVENS 18

Spread: Ravens -3: Patriots

Moneyline: Ravens -148, Patriots +124: Patriots

O/U: 48.5: Under

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

49ERS 30 @ COLTS 13

Spread: 49ers -6: 49ers

Moneyline: 49ers -258, Colts +210: 49ers

O/U: 46.5: Under

W2W4: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills - Week Fifteen 2025

2025-12-14T10:07:00.001-05:00

The last time the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills met was in week five of the 2025 season on a crisp, early October evening at Highmark Stadium (aka “the Ralph”) at 1 Bills Drive in Orchard Park. The Bills at 4-0 coming into the game were rolling to what seemed to be on their way to another inevitable sixth consecutive AFC East championship.

The Patriots were 2-2 and had lost to the Raiders in week one, edged out the Dolphins in a wild, high-scoring game, turned the ball over five times in losing to the Steelers in week three, and fell behind the Panthers 6-0 in the first quarter and the boo-birds were out in Foxboro that day before Marcus Jones turned the entire season around with an 87-yard punt return touchdown leading to New England ripping off 42 straight points.

Going into Buffalo for a nationally televised prime-time game there were a lot of “yeah, but it was against Carolina” responses as the Patriots looked like a wildly inconsistent young team trying to find their footing in the first quarter of the season. Of course, that was expected. At that time, my expectation was six wins for the season with an 8-9 record look on as the best case scenario.

Flash-forward to week fifteen and New England has not lost since week three against Pittsburgh. The Patriots behind MVP candidate Drake Maye sit atop the AFC East with a chance to clinch the division with a win against Buffalo in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon.

It is simply inconceivable that the ten game win streak has taken place and the Patriots find themselves coming off the bye week in this position of strength. Suddenly the Bills, the bullies of the AFC East for the past five years, are in the position of looking up at another team ahead of them in the standings.

Sure, the 2023 Bills team were 5-5 at one point and behind the Dolphins in the standings, but Buffalo had blown out Miami earlier that year 48-20 and knew they would meet in week 18 with a chance to catch-up and run them down in the standings (that Miami defense was garbage that year as the spoiled players rant to head coach Mike McDaniel crying because mean old Vic Fangio wasn’t their friend like him and would yell at them).

Somehow, the Patriots are in position to win the AFC East even if they lose to Buffalo, as their match-up next week in Baltimore doesn’t look quite as scary as it did when the schedule came out as the Ravens are 6-7 and Lamar Jackson and the offense look out of sorts while the defense continues to struggle to mount a pass rush and got lit up last week by the previously non-existent downfield passing attack of the Steelers.

The Patriots close out the season with a trip to New Jersey to face the Jets in week 17--and who knows if it will be Tyrod Taylor, Justin Fields or Brady Cook at quarterback for that game--and then finish at home with the Dolphins--who may already be eliminated from the postseason at that point and not have a lot to play for in week 18.

Trying not to look too far into the uncertain future after what happened in Indianapolis this season with the Colts falling apart in every conceivable way after their 7-1 start, but just imagine that New England could conceivably be in play for the number one seed in the AFC going into Miami. The Broncos are tied at 11-2 right now, but the Broncos face a tough test down the stretch playing the NFC North leading Packers, the AFC South leading Jaguars, the always dangerous Chiefs in Kansas City and close out the year in what could be a game for the division lead in the AFC West against the Chargers.

Last Week:

The New England Patriots were on a bye last week so not much to report. They desperately needed the week of rest. The team was running out of gas in a hurry and injuries were starting to pile up. Credit head coach Mike Vrabel for getting this team ready to play on Monday night against the New York Giants.

In that game, the Patriots jumped out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back against New York, running their lead to 30-7 at the half. While the Giants scored at the beginning of the fourth quarter to cut the lead to 30-15, the Patriots eventually went on a 12 play drive eating the clock down to close to the two-minute warning and kicking a field goal to salt the game away with a 33-15 win.

Drake Maye led the way with 282 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns. While he was sacked three times, it was only for a combined negative six yards. TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson split the carries and combined for 107 yards on 23 carries. Hunter Henry led the way with four catches for 73 yards.

On defense, Christian Ellis set the tone with a ringing hit on a scrambling Jaxson Dart when the Giants’ rookie quarterback didn’t run out of bounds. Harold Landry added to his team-leading sack total and undrafted rookie free agent Elijah Ponder added his third sack in the last four games.

The Giants had some success running the football, as Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy combined for 104 yards on 22 carries, but the Patriots were not too concerned with the rushing yards with their banged-up defensive front (Milton Williams on injured reserve and Khyiris Tonga inactive with a chest injury). The pass defense was excellent, as Dart was held to 139 yards passing and never threatened.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

The Patriots return to CBS this week as the game was likely protected from being flexed into prime time. Locally, the game is found on WBZ-TV Channel 4 in the greater Boston area and WPRI 12-CBS in the greater Providence area.

While not the top unit at CBS, at least we are spared from the “oohs” and “ahhs” and the “I don’t know, Jim!” utterances of Tony Romo. Instead, the serviceable Ian Eagle will handle play-by-play duties with former Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt as the color analyst. Evan Washburn will provide analysis from the sidelines.

Hopefully, Watt packed his Texans’ “letterman jacket” as we just passed the 13 year anniversary of the 11-1 Texans were riding a six game win streak and came into Foxboro with the entire team wearing them. The Patriots obliterated them, jumping out to a 28-0 lead and winning 42-14.

This week’s game will be broadcast to a national audience on the radio by Sports USA. Larry Kahn will call the game with former Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis providing analysis.

As always, Sunday’s game will be broadcast locally on the radio by Bigelow Tea hawking play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci calling the action along with former Patriots quarterback and Sports Hub “personality” Scott “Zo” Zolak providing analysis.

The Sports Hub pregame show kicks-off at 8am with the always informative Alex Barth and Cerrone Battle. At 10am, the Patriots Pregame show begins featuring the always annoying Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand and the always informative Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper leading up to handing it off to Socci and Zo.

Key Stats:

The Patriots are now 5-2 at Gillette Stadium and 6-0 on the road in 2025 as they host the second-place Buffalo Bills in a game with huge AFC East ramifications. The current ten-game winning streak in 2025 ties the longest winning streak in one season with the 2015 Patriots squad.

New England’s offense is averaging 27.0 points per game remaining seventh in the league in points scored, After piling up 395 total yards against the Giants’ defense, New England is up to eighth in the NFL as they approach 5,000 total yards of offense for the season (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).

New England is eighth in the league with 267 first downs and second overall in total passing yards. While 21st in the league in rushing yards, Josh McDaniels has not abandoned the running game as the team is sixth in the NFL in rushing attempts.

Maye remains the completion percentage leader as he has produced a 71.5% completion rate and 3,412 yards passing. He now has 23 touchdowns passing to just six interceptions. He is first in the league in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (factoring in touchdown passes and interceptions) with a 9.33 yards average.

New England, while second in passing yards, is 25th in the league in pass attempts, a statistic that shows how effective the downfield passing by Maye and his receivers have been this season. After all the criticism heaped on the New England wide receiver room, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, Demario Douglas and rookie Kyle Williams have all contributed this season in the deep passing attack.

On defense, the emphasis by head coach Mike Vrabel and interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr (Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams has been on medical leave much of training camp and the season) on controlling the opponent’s running game early in the season has been replaced by a team that has taken a big step forward defending opposing passing attacks.

That success will have a huge test this week with Josh Allen, but since allowing 258 yards passing to the Buccaneers, the Jets, Bengals and Giants had just 105, 187, and 128 yards through the air.

New England is up to 14th in the league in passing yards allowed and 13th in net yards allowed per attempt. Considering how the secondary got lit up by Geno Smith and the Raiders in week one, this is a dramatic improvement. The New England pass defense was 26th in passing yards allowed heading into week five.

The Patriots are still strong overall against the run, as they are third in yards allowed and second in the league with just five rushing touchdowns allowed all season. They are tenth overall in yards per attempt, allowing just a 4.0 average.

The team defense is fifth in the NFL in points allowed (18.5 points per game) and seventh in total yards allowed.

In week five against Buffalo, they allowed 363 yards of total offense, as the Bills passed for 245 yards and rushed for another 118. What made the difference that night was that New England’s defense forced a season-high three turnovers, with the third quarter interception by Marcus being the most impactful. Christian Gonzalez had a huge stop on third-and-ten with 2:31 remaining that forced Buffalo to kick a field goal.

NE Offense vs BUF Defense:

The Patriots are facing a Buffalo Bills team with revenge on their mind. After ruling the AFC East and being a perennial Super Bowl contender (always falling just short), the Bills suddenly have the best young quarterback in the league in their division. Despite back-to-back 4-13 seasons, New England’s offense is driving them to the top of the AFC East.

The New England offense is eighth in the league on third down conversion percentage (42.7%) but have been excellent on fourth down attempts. They are 14 of 18 on their fourth down conversions for an amazing 77.8% success rate for the season, easily ranking first in the league in fourth down conversion percentage.

The Red Zone problems continue as the Patriots are 25th in Red Zone TD percentage (down from 14th a month ago) with just 24 of 47 trips resulting in touchdowns (51.1%). The first drive of the game against the Giants, the Patriots had first and goal at the seven yard line and settled for a field goal.

Buffalo has had a topsy-turvy season, as despite being 9-4, they have had inconsistencies on both sides of the ball. The Bills are fifth in points scored, but while they have seven games scoring over 30 points (and 40 or more three times), they also have four games scoring 20 or less. No surprise, those are their four losses.

That points to a defense that needs the offense to carry the load for them. Last week, the Bills allowed 34 points to Cincinnati, a week after they made Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense look incompetent. The defense gave up 40 points in week one to Baltimore and then allowed 30 points to Miami and 32 points to Tampa Bay in back to back weeks prior to the Steelers game.

Tendencies-wise on defense, the Bills are near the bottom of the pack blitzing, bringing extra pressure just 20.2% of the time, ranking 27th in the league. Buffalo prefers to have extra defensive backs on the field just like the New England defense and are tied for fifth in the league on Sub Package Rate, with 80% of their defensive snaps having an extra defensive back (per Sharp Football Analysis).

Pass Offense:

The Buffalo pass defense has surprisingly been one of the surprises of this season. They currently rank second in the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed. They’re seventh in fewest touchdowns allowed and eighth in net yards per attempt allowed. Despite these gaudy numbers, they’re not highly regarded.

Sharp Football Analysis ranked Buffalo as 20th in the league with their initial ranking of the Buffalo secondary. Pro Football Focus ranked them right in the middle at 14th in the NFL.

The Bills’ secondary features Christian Benford, probably the most underrated cornerback in the NFL, and a lot of other parts that seem a mishmash that somehow works. Benford is the number one cornerback capable of following any receiver or locking down a side. He is excellent in man coverage and a ball-hawk in zone coverage.

Benford has been playing at a high level, especially in the last month. However, he landed on the injury list this week as he injured a toe at practice. He did not practice on Friday and his status is up in the air for Sunday. If Benford misses the game, it could be a catastrophic loss for Buffalo.

Beyond Benford at cornerback, Tre’davious White was excellent six years ago, but is long in the tooth and has lost a step. Undersized first round draft pick Maxwell Hairston was injured much of the first half of the season and has been struggling to stay on the field. He has been very inconsistent, looking like a star on one drive and being burned on the next.

Nickel cornerback Taron Johnson is solid and has been a stabilizing force at nickelback, where Cameron Lewis will also contribute. Second-year safety Cole Bishop has been the breakout star of the secondary, but fellow rookies Jordan Hancock and Sam Franklin have struggled to win a role on the defense and Buffalo had to lure greybeard Jordan Poyer out of retirement.

The Bills attempted to claim Darius Slay on waivers--but he did not report to the team. The front office and coaching staff understand that the secondary is vulnerable.

Buffalo plays man and zone coverage fairly equally and regularly have extra defensive backs on the field. They have excellent coverage linebackers in Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, and Shaq Thompson who can match-up with tight ends and play zone defense well. Bernard has been limited this week at practice with an elbow injury and is questionable for Sunday.

Rushing the passer, the Bills (28) are one sack ahead of the Patriots (27) for the season and both squads in the bottom half of the league. However, sacks are only part of the story. Pressure rate is much more important and Buffalo (37.1%) is just behind New England (38.2%) just outside the top ten.

The Bills have veteran Joey Bosa leading the way with five sacks this season. The former Charger has only missed one game, which is remarkable considering he lasted a full season last in 2021. Robbed of his next-level explosiveness of his first few years with the Chargers due to the accumulation of injuries, he has become more of a technician and wily veteran.

Bosa should return this week from his hamstring injury, and the Bills clearly missed him desperately last week. The season-ending injury to Ed Oliver has been the biggest loss on defense as he came back from an early season ankle injury and then tore his biceps.

Gregory Rousseau remains a one-trick pony rushing the passer and hasn’t elevated his game to match his contract. A.J. Epenesa flashes pass rush prowess enough to stay on the roster, but at age 27 it appears he’s a depth piece at best who may come up with a big sack on occasion.

Inside, ageless wonder DaQuan Jones has held the fort up front with youngsters Deone Walker and T.J. Sanders. Veteran run-stuffer Jordan Phillips and washed-up Larry Ogunjobi back them up inside. The lack of interior pass rush has been an issue with this group.

Buffalo has allowed more than 250 yards passing just twice this season--in their week five loss to Drake Maye and the Patriots and last week in their shootout win over the Bengals and Joe Burrow.

The Bills--like most NFL teams--win when they win the turnover battle. The Bills went 4-0 to start the season at +3 in turnovers. They lost to New England in week five and Falcons in week six at -4 in turnovers.

Since the bye week, the Bills are +4 in turnovers in their five wins and -4 in their two losses. So if this defense is not forcing turnovers, the Bills aren’t winning in 2025.

The New England offensive line was undermanned against the Giants but still played well against a strong pass rush. With rookie left tackle Will Campbell on injured reserve, local whipping boy Vedarian Lowe stepped in and actually played pretty well. ProFootballFocus.com rated him with a solid 65.7 grade and had him allowing three hurries, no sacks and no hits on 38 snaps in pass protection.

Lowe was abysmal last season. He didn’t make any excuses last year as he was eviscerated weekly in the press, but Lowe recently revealed that he played most of 2024 with a torn labrum in his shoulder and had surgery in the offseason. In that context, it explains his lack of power in pass protection and his character suiting up for a losing team while seriously injured and fighting through the pain.

Veteran Ben Brown took over at left guard after rookie Jared Wilson missed the game. Brown held up well, and is the kind of interior back-up every team needs. He’s not the strongest or most athletic, but he can play center and guard and fill in for a game or two without much disruption. Getting the athletic Wilson back healthy is a big boost.

The Patriots went back to their “whoever is open” offensive passing attack against the Giants, to the detriment of any fantasy football owner with a New England receiver.

Hunter Henry was the top target against the Giants working against their weak middle defense. The New England tight end stepped up leading the team with four catches for 73 yards. Kayshon Boutte led the wide receiver group with four catches for 35 yards and another touchdown.

However, Mack Hollins, Stefon Diggs, and Demario Douglas all had three receptions apiece. Rookie Kyle Williams had a pretty 33-yard touchdown, and the running backs stepped up in the passing game with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson chipping in with three receptions apiece.

Run Offense:

The Patriots continued to be inconsistent in the running game in 2025 but with Rhamondre Stevenson back to health they show no signs of stopping. For the Josh McDaniels offense, the results aren’t as important as the effect on the defense. As long as defenses are forced to react to the run, the play action game opens up big plays downfield for the passing attack.

Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing, with 11 carries for 67 yards with a long of 26 yards in the fourth quarter that effectively ended the game and let the Patriots eat time off the clock and kick a field goal to make it a three score game with less than three minutes to play.

Rhamondre Stevenson had 12 carries for 40 yards. Terrell Jennings had a 39 yard kickoff return but suffered a concussion and is out against the Bills. In fact, he will be going on injured reserve and missing the rest of the regular season. Former Browns running back D’Ernest Johnson will be the third running back against Buffalo and for the rest of the regular season.

The Bills run defense runs hot and cold. They have five games where they’ve allowed 189 or more rushing yards this season. They also have four games allowing less than 100 yards rushing including the last two weeks.

Buffalo is 28th in rushing yards allowed and 29th in yards per attempt allowed at 5.1 yards per rush. The Patriots game in week five was the only one of the four games they held opponents under 100 yards rushing that they lost. In their other three losses, the Bills allowed 210, 197 and 108 rushing yards.

Linebacker Terrel Bernard has missed two games but should be back for Sunday. With veteran and Boston College alumni Matt Milano, they make for a solid run stuffing duo usually. Veteran Shaq Thompson slid in the past two games and vastly improved the run defense in Bernard’s absence. It will be interesting to see how Buffalo splits the snaps between the two as Bernard is much better in pass defense than Thompson.

On the defensive line, Daquan Jones is one of their best run defenders, as he is strong, experienced and a handful for interior offensive linemen. Rookie Deone Walker was not highly regarded coming out of Kentucky, but at six-foot-seven and 331 lbs, the man-mountain has taken advantage of his opportunities and shows no signs of giving up his role at nose tackle.

Second-round draft pick T.J. Sanders hasn’t had the impact of Walker, but is part of the rotation inside with Jordan Phillips and Larry Ogunjobi. Phillips can still contribute on defense for 15-20 early down snaps stopping the run. Ogunjobi was brought in to help in the pass rush and has been a liability in the pass rush and run defense since returning from suspension.

For New England, Josh McDaniels is not going to abandon the running game, especially with injuries along the offensive line. The Patriots have been committed even without success to set-up play action passing. The Patriots have the sixth most rushing attempts in the league despite being just 14th in total yards and 27th in yards per attempt at 3.9.

BUF Offense vs NE Defense

Buffalo’s offense has scored 30 or more points seven times in 2025. In all four losses, they scored 20 or fewer points. With their inconsistent defense, the pressure is on the offense to score enough to win.

That strategy worked in week one, beating Baltimore 41-40. It worked against Tampa Bay, outlasting them 44-32. It even worked last week, as a furious fourth quarter comeback allowed them to beat Cincinnati 39-34.

They lit up lightweights like the Jets (30-10), the Saints (31-19), earlier in the season Carolina (40-9), and the Dolphins early in the season (31-21), but struggled against stronger defenses losing to the Patriots in week five (23-20) and Houston (23-19). Add in two inexplicable and unexpected losses (Atlanta and Miami) and the Bills sit at 9-4 and are eliminated from a repeat of AFC East champions with a loss.

Josh Allen gets the headlines, and rightfully so as one of the top three quarterbacks in the NFL. He has become pin-point accurate in all three levels as a passer and is a threat running the ball as well. With the growth of running back James Cook, the Bills have been able to remove some of the pressure from Allen having to be Super-Man each week.

The Patriots have been so dependent on the defense being able to get off the field on third down and get the ball back to the offense. They are seventh in the NFL now allowing just 35.6% of third downs. After stopping the Giants three times on fourth down, the Patriots are third best in the NFL with just seven conversions on 22 fourth down attempts allowed (31.8%).

The struggle on defense in New England has remained to be the Red Zone where they rank dead last. Opponents have 19 touchdowns on 26 trips for a 73.1% conversion rate. For all the Red Zone struggles on offense that have been written about recently, the defenses’ struggles in the Red Zone is the real story.

New England played pretty well on defense against the Bills in the first matchup. The key was shutting down Cooks (15 rushes for 49 yards), although Allen was disruptive running the ball (9 rushes for 53 yards).

Tight end Dalton Kincaid has six receptions for 108 yards and Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman had touchdown receptions. The defense only forced two punts, but two fumble recoveries and an interception kept the Bills off the scoreboard enough.

Pass Defense:

The Bills primarily line up in a three wide receiver alignment, which seems odd with three very good tight ends on the roster. They are 19th in the league in multi-tight end usage(per Sharp Football Analysis). They do use a traditional fullback with Reggie Gillam and are sixth in multiple back rate.

Like the Bills’ defense, New England prefers the extra secondary players look and prefers having multiple secondary defenders on the field (usually three cornerbacks and two safeties). The Patriots are fifth in the NFL as far as Sub Package Rate (five or more defensive backs) and any defensive alignment without their three cornerbacks on it does not bode well for the Patriots playing to their strengths.

If Buffalo were smart, they would be loading up with heavy multi-tight end sets and doubling down with the fullback. They should be playing smashmouth football and daring the Patriots to get out of their sub package and devote an extra linebacker and then attack with the tight ends in the passing game from jumbo packages.

The Bills passing offense has yet to replace Stefon Diggs. Diggs’ skill set was the perfect fit in the Buffalo offense, opening things over the middle by taking safeties with him to create holes for slot receivers and tight ends to find room. Without Diggs, the tight end trio has had to take a larger role in 2025 with Dalton Kincaid (vertical attack), Dawson Knox (zone beater) and rookie Jackson Hawes (blocker/goal line) taking on a larger role.

The wide receivers all have very specific roles as well. Gabe Davis has returned after washing out in Jacksonville and is the big boundary receiver taking snaps from second-year headache Keon Coleman. Coleman was supposed to fill that role, but maturity issues and lack of production has limited his role in what was expected to be a breakout season.

Khalil Shakir is excellent in the slot, but his lack of size and strength limits him in tight coverage as he has to have separation to be effective. Joshua Palmer has struggled with injuries and chemistry since joining in free agency from the Chargers and is still trying to settle into the deep threat role. After five catches in week one, he has yet to top two receptions in a game and has no touchdowns.

Tyrell Shavers makes up in effort what he lacks in talent. While he will never be a volume receiver, the Bills love his downfield blocking and he has continued to steal snaps as the big receiver continues to earn more snaps where his big frame helps in the running game and blocking for screens.

The Bills added veteran Brandon Cooks, who really is a depth piece behind Shakir in the slot. Although he was a boundary receiver in New England, that was almost eight years ago. Cooks is an insurance policy at this point of his career.

Running back James Cook has the ability to be a running/receiving threat like Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco. However, the Bills are reluctant to involve him in the passing game. After the week five loss to New England (no receptions), Cook has been targeted in the passing game more than three times just once (in the loss to Miami) despite his soft hands and solid route running.

The New England secondary was not seriously tested by Jaxson Dart and the Giants in their last game. The Giants had no answers through the air and other than the 30-yard touchdown when New England sent the cover-zero blitz and Slayton caught a short pass and was able to run the last twenty yards into the end zone

This week, Josh Allen brings a much higher skill level than a rookie in a broken offense. Christian Gonzalez is unlikely to follow any specific receiver. With his length and play-strength, Carlton Davis should see plenty of Gabe Davis and Keon Coleman. Marcus Jones in the slot will see Shakir and Cooks.

Covering the tight ends is the biggest headache. I still can’t figure out why Dalton Kincaid is not the high-volume focus of the offense with his ability to stretch the middle of the field. If I were running the Buffalo offense, I’d make sure Kincaid was in position to be getting 10-12 targets per game.

With interior pass rusher Milton Williams on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and out for a while, the Patriots need Christian Barmore to be a disruptive force with inside pressure. Cory Durden, Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory are not even close to the pass rushing force that Milton is for the Patriots. However, they need to find a way to contain Allen and keep him from escaping the pocket and running for first downs.

It all starts in Buffalo on the offensive line with left tackle Dion Dawkins. Dawkins has dominated at left tackle since taking over there in 2018 after being a second-round pick in 2017. Right tackle Spencer Brown is their best run blocker and should be back from injury for this game.

On the interior, former Cowboy Connor McGovern is tough and gritty. Veteran David Edwards is solid on the left side at guard, but right guard O’Cyrus Torrence is the future star at right guard. A second-round pick in 2023, he is just starting to find the consistency in his game to take the next step and reach his potential as a perennial Pro Bowl guard.

The Bills are 14th in pressure rate allowed and 15th in no blitz pressure rate per Sharp Football Analysis, While the offensive line is better in run blocking, they are more than adequate at pass protection.

Run Defense:

The Bills are going to come into Foxboro on Sunday afternoon intent on testing the New England run defense. There is no doubt about that. In week five, the Bills were shut down by Khyiris Tonga and the New England interior defenders. The run defense was springing leaks before Milton Williams went on injured reserve,

Tonga missed the Giants game, but is expected back this weekend. With Christian Barmore and Cory Durden, the Patriots have the beef up front to slow the Bills rushing attack. Edge rushers K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry (who is questionable with a lingering knee injury) are solid setting the edge, although New England likes to bring in Anfernee Jennings who is one of the best edge run defenders around.

Linebacker Robert Spillane is questionable for the game and would be a huge loss if he is unable to go on Sunday. Spillane is the heart and soul of the defense in the middle handling assignments and above-average as a pass defender beyond his hard-hitting run stuffing ability. If Spillane cannot go, Jahlani Tavai and Jack Gibbens pick up more snaps.

The New England run defense has struggled the past month after being the strength of the defense for the first half of the season. The Giants (111 yards) became the sixth team to top 100 yards rushing so far in 2025 against New England joining Carolina (129 yards), Buffalo (118 yards), Tampa Bay (113 yards), the Jets (140 yards) and the Bengals (120 yards).

However, there are a few caveats to those numbers as New England won all five games. Carolina was behind 42-6 in the fourth quarter and ran for 45 yards in garbage time. Buffalo’s star running back James Cook had just 49 yards on 15 carries and it was quarterback Josh Allen (nine rushes for 53 yards) doing the damage by scrambling.

These last four games, however, there are no caveats. The Buccaneers offensive line was winning up front and making room for Sean Tucker and Rachaad White. Jets were a load with Justin Fields and Breece Hall before they inexplicably stopped using Fields as a dual threat runner.

The Bengals took advantage of New England losing Khyiris Tonga and already missing Milton Williams to pile up 120 yards on just 23 carries. Running back Chase Brown topped 100 yards rushing as the first running back to do so this season against New England. The Giants were led by former Bills running back Devin Singletary rushing for 68 yards with Tyrone Tracy adding 36 yards on the ground.

For the Patriots, Milton Williams being out obviously impacted the run defense as he has made plenty of plays penetrating in the backfield to disrupt the running game. Christian Barmore is much more effective as a pass rusher than run defender.

Nose tackle Khyiris Tonga being out was a huge loss. He had a chest injury and left early against Cincinnati and missed the Giants Monday night game. With an extra week off for the bye week, the expectation is he should be back and ready to go.

Veteran Eric Gregory and big body Jeremiah Pharms (if elevated from the practice squad again) should see time filling in for Tonga. Also, expect a continuing big role for Cory Durden as the former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants seems to have found a regular role and now is picking up extra playing time in Milton Williams’ absence.

Buffalo has a one-two punch of running back James Cook and quarterback Josh Allen. Cook has followed-up his 16 touchdown campaign last season with an increased role in 2025 as the focal point of the Buffalo offense. He is averaging 100.6 yards per game having piled up 1,308 yards in just 13 games.

Allen remains the most dangerous quarterback not named Lamar Jackson with the ball tucked and headed up field. Allen had 78 yards rushing last week on just nine carries. With 12 rushing touchdowns and 487 yards on the ground, Allen is a threat not only to extend plays and make plays in the passing game, but a threat to make an impact rushing the ball.

Buffalo will give Cook rest with running backs Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. Neither gets much work with Cook being one of the few true RB1s left in the league. If Buffalo is able to get the ground game going and keep Drake Maye and the New England offense on the bench, it would be the ideal strategy for the Bills.

For New England, the game plan will revert to their season-long strategy regardless of who is on the field. They are going to attempt to stop the Bills’ number one ranked rushing attack (most yards rushing in the NFL with just 2,051) by bottling up Cook and trying to keep Allen from using his legs as a weapon, and then make them one-dimensional and use their superior cornerback trio to get the ball back to their offense.

It all starts with stopping the run. I expect there was extra focus from acting defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr to shoring up that part of the game plan during the bye week and all of the past week at practice. If they can do that, it will go a long way towards whether they can clinch the AFC East this weekend.

Other Factors:

The Bills are used to bad weather and aren’t going to be bothered by the potential snow and winds forecast for Sunday. Veteran kicker Matt Prater may be 41 years old, but his leg remains one of the strongest and he has made 18 of 20 field goals and 38 of 41 extra points. Running back Ray Davis is the emergency kicker and has one kickoff this season.

The Bills have had three punters and currently veteran Mitch Wishnowsky has settled into the role. The Australian native nicknamed the Boomin’ Onion (last week the Scottish Hammer, this week the Boomin’ Onion) got the week off against Cincinnati just handling holding duties and not having to punt.

Wishnowsky took over the job for the last matchup against New England after Buffalo dealt with a bad performance from Brad Robbins in week one leading to his release and replacement Cameron Johnson was injured against the Saints. Wishnowsky has just one touchback in nine games and landed 12 of his 25 punts inside the 20.

Buffalo’s punt returners are last in the NFL with a 5.35 yards per return average. They are much better on kickoff returns, averaging 27.41 yards per return which is good for seventh in the NFL (per The Football Database). Ray Davis had a 97 yard kickoff return for a touchdown this season and Mecole Hardman had a 61 yard return as well.

Buffalo has cycled through four different punt returners and seem to have settled in on having Shakir handled punt returns and Davis and fellow running back Ty Johnson back to handle kick returns.

The Patriots coverage units have been solid if not spectacular. Per The Football Database, New England is fifth in the NFL in kick return coverage, allowing just 23.96 yards per return average. Punt coverage is where the worries are for the Patriots’ special teams. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but rank 24th in punt coverage allowing 12.63 yards per return.

The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.27 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennnings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism (who is on the practice squad) as the returner with mixed results. It seems like Williams is going to get a chance to handle the job.

The number two ranked punt return unit (18.84 yards per return) in the NFL belongs to Marcus Jones as he has handled all the punts. He had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took it 61 yards. Against the Giants, he broke open the floodgates with a 94-yard touchdown return where the blocking allowed him to run untouched until the Scottish Hammer got a fingernail on him as the last man to beat.

In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has really settled in after a rough start to his rookie season. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. Since week two he has been perfect on extra points and has missed just a pair of field goals. Borregales missed a 45-yard field goal before half time with the Patriots already ahead 30-7 against the Giants but tacked on a total of four made field goals from 30 yards or less in the game as well as all three extra points.

Punter Bryce Baringer still had an inconvenient wobbler every once in a while but overall has been solid. He has just four touchbacks, has landed 17 of his 42 punts inside the 20-yard line, and is averaging 46.6 yards per punt and a net average of 39.0 per punt.

Who can tell unless he air-mails or dirt-hops a snap, but the rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine as far as I’ve seen so far. I don’t want to jinx the kid, but if you draft a long-snapper, you expect perfection.

Game Pick:

The Patriots have been churning through bad teams all season and doing their job and simply racking up victories in games that they were favored. Other than the Bills in week five and in week ten against Tampa, they’ve played the schedule they earned as one of the worst teams over 2023 and 2024.

The Patriots are coming out of their bye week and while they’ve handled the trap games, they’re not sneaking up on the Bills this week like they did on Sunday night in week five. Buffalo is two games behind New England and feeling the sting of looking up at the Patriots in the AFC East standings after having seemingly exorcised the Brady/Belichick demons these past five years.

Yes, I know I picked against the Patriots the first time they played Buffalo, and against the Buccaneers, and warned everyone about all these trap games, but I also acknowledge that this Patriots coaching staff and team deserve a ton of credit for stepping up and winning all these games even when they were in less than impressive fashion (cough, cough, Jets, Falcons, Bengals, cough, cough).

I will be rooting for the Patriots to win an eleventh consecutive game just because of Drake “Drake Maye” Maye at quarterback. While I am picking the Bills to win, it is only because they are going to be desperate to win. If they lose, they are on the road for probably all of the playoffs.

Buffalo needs to play at home in January as they have struggled mightily on the road in the playoffs with Josh Allen and Sean McDermott. This is a road game they need, and they have three losses on the road already. They lost in Atlanta, Miami and Houston, while winning on the road only against the Jets, Carolina and Pittsburgh.

Last year they won two home playoff games and lost in Kansas City. In 2023 they won at home against Pittsburgh and lost at home to Kansas City. In 2022 the Bills beat Miami and Skylar Thompson at home and lost to the Bengals at home. In 2021 they crushed Mac Jones 47-17 in Buffalo and then went into Kansas City and lost in overtime. In 2020, Sean McDermott’s squad won two home playoff games and went into Kansas City…well, you can guess what happened! Finally, in 2019, they lost to Deshaun Watson on the road in overtime.

Buffalo is entirely capable of running the table if they beat New England with a road trip to Cleveland and then finishing up at home against the Eagles and Jets. That leaves the Patriots little wiggle room to end the season.

Again, the Patriots, while hardly battle tested, are capable of beating the Bills, especially in Foxboro. I worry about the Red Zone offense and Red Zone defense not being up to snuff and absent a big special teams play or forcing numerous turnovers again, that Josh Allen is going to find a way to pull a rabbit out of his hat this weekend.

Also, kudos to myself for making it through almost 7,500 words without making and "Drake and Josh" joke during the entire game preview.

Drake Maye--prove me wrong on Sunday afternoon!

BILLS 27 @ PATRIOTS 24

Spread: Bills -1.5: Bills
Moneyline: Bills -105, Patriots -115: Bills
O/U: 50.5: Over

NFL Week 15 2025 - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2025-12-13T07:33:00.002-05:00

Week fourteen of the 2025 NFL season is over and as 2025 nears its end, the year that gave us the most annoying trend, “six-seven”, sees the AFC Champion and unquestioned powerhouse of the roaring twenties in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs, sitting outside the playoff picture with a record of 6-7.

Last week saw the Lions’ offense explode to kick off the week by downing the red hot Cowboys. Seattle rolled on and the Bills and Bengals went down to the wire in a shootout in the snow. The Titans upended the fight for the first overall pick beating the Browns and the Jags added to the woes of the Colts.

The Vikings bounced back and crushed the Commanders. The Dolphins’ win streak continued versus their AFC East rival Jets. The Saints upset the Bucs and the Steelers held off the reeling Ravens.

The Broncos grabbed the number one seed in the AFC beating Las Vegas while the Rams cruised against the Cardinals. The Bears ended the afternoon slate dropping out of the NFC North lead as they lost to the Packers.

Sunday night saw Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs fall to the mighty Texans’ defense and on Monday night, the Super Bowl champion Eagles fell in overtime to the Chargers and the golden foot of Dicker the Kicker.

Now onto this week’s games to see if we can top the drama and action of week fourteen.

Thursday Night Football features the Falcons and Bucs in an NFC South showdown.

Sunday afternoon in the early window has the Bears looking to bounce back against Shadeur Sanders and the Browns; the Ravens and Bengals fight for scraps in the AFC North; Arizona travels to Houston; the lowly Jets try to upset the AFC South leading Jaguars; the Chargers attempt to deliver a knock-out blow to the Chiefs’ playoff chances; the Commanders and Giants fight for draft pick seeding; the Raiders bring their mess to Philadelphia to deliver the Eagles a get-right game; and the crown jewel match-up of the Buffalo Bills travelling to Foxboro to face the first place New England Patriots in an AFC East showdown.

The later window has a potential Super Bowl preview with the red hot Denver Broncos hosting the Green Bay Packers; the first place Carolina Panthers face NFC South rivals the Saints in the Big Easy; the Lions travel to Los Angeles to face the mighty Matthew Stafford and the Rams; the Colts and Grandfather Phillip Rivers are off to Seattle; and the late window wraps up with the Titans travelling to San Francisco to face-off against the 49ers.

Sunday Night Football features a game that no doubt looked better before the season started with the Vikings in Dallas facing the Cowboys. The week wraps up on Monday Night Football with the red hot Miami Dolphins bringing their winning streak to Pittsburgh to take on Aaron Rodgers and the first place Steelers.

Each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and pre-pandemic as well).

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

Last Week: Straight up: 9-5; Against the Spread: 7-7

Season Totals: Straight up: 131-76-1; Against the Spread: 98-109-1

Lock of the Week: 10-4

Upset Special: 4-11

Now, on to the week fifteen picks!

2025 NFL Week 15 Picks

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

FALCONS 16 @ BUCCANEERS 27

Spread: Buccaneers -4.5: Buccaneers
Moneyline: Buccaneers -238, Falcons +195: Buccaneers
O/U: 44.5: Under

(edit: I never learn--I keep having this insane faith in Baker Mayfield. I need help. 0-1 again to start the week.)

SUNDAY 1:00PM

JETS 13 @ JAGUARS 27

Spread: Jaguars -12.5: Jaguars
Moneyline: Jaguars -700, Jets +500: Jaguars
O/U: 41.5: Under

BROWNS 16 @ BEARS 18

Spread: Bears -7.5: Browns
Moneyline: Bears -395, Browns +310: Bears
O/U: 39.5: Under

BILLS 27 @ PATRIOTS 24

Spread: Bills -1.5: Bills
Moneyline: Bills -105, Patriots -115: Bills
O/U: 50.5: Over

RAVENS 20 @ BENGALS 22

Spread: Ravens -2.5: Bengals
Moneyline: Ravens -135, Bengals +114: Bengals
O/U: 52.5: Under

CARDINALS 21 @ TEXANS 19 (UPSET SPECIAL)

Spread: Texans -9.5: Cardinals
Moneyline: Texans -575, Cardinals +425: Cardinals
O/U: 42.5: Under

RAIDERS 14 @ EAGLES 38

Spread: Eagles -11.5: Eagles
Moneyline: Eagles -850, Raiders +575: Eagles
O/U: 38.5: Over

CHARGERS 30 @ CHIEFS 24

Spread: Chiefs -4.5: Chargers
Moneyline: Chiefs -218, Chargers +180: Chargers
O/U: 41.5: Over

COMMANDERS 17 @ GIANTS 20

Spread: Giants -2.5: Giants
Moneyline: Giants -130, Commanders +110: Giants
O/U: 47.5: Under

4:05/4:25PM:

COLTS 13 @ SEAHAWKS 38 (LOCK OF WEEK)

Spread: Seahawks -14: Seahawks
Moneyline: Seahawks -1000, Colts +650: Seahawks
O/U: 42.5: Over

TITANS 16 @ 49ERS 25

Spread: 49ers -12.5: Titans
Moneyline: 49ers -1000, Titans +650: 49ers
O/U: 44.5: Under

PACKERS 24 @ BRONCOS 27

Spread: Packers -2.5: Broncos
Moneyline: Packers -135, Broncos +114: Broncos
O/U: 43.5: Over

LIONS 30 @ RAMS 34 (Overtime)

Spread: Rams -5.5: Lions
Moneyline: Rams -245, Lions +200: Rams
O/U: 55.5: Over

PANTHERS 25 @ SAINTS 21

Spread: Panthers -2.5: Panthers
Moneyline: Panthers -142, Saints +120: Panthers
O/U: 40.5: Over

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

VIKINGS 27 @ COWBOYS 38

Spread: Cowboys -5.5: Cowboys
Moneyline: Cowboys -270, Vikings +220: Cowboys
O/U: 47.5: Over

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

DOLPHINS 20 @ STEELERS 24

Spread: Steelers -3: Steelers
Moneyline: Steelers -175, Dolphins +145: Steelers
O/U: 47.5: Under

NFL Week 14 2025 - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2025-12-06T20:46:00.003-05:00

Week thirteen of the 2025 NFL season is in the books and the NFL season is kicking into gear as we turn the corner into the final quarter of the season.

Last week saw three games on Thanksgiving and a Black Friday game with the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens and Eagles all seeing their playoff chances take a hit with losses. The Rams lost, and the “what a difference a month makes” Colts dropped another. The 49ers and Dolphins beat really bad teams and Jacksonville and Tampa won against inferior opponents.

All hail the Jets who beat the Falcons, improving the first round draft pick they’re sending to the Rams. I think Minnesota had a “Nathan Peterman” experience with their third-string quarterback in getting shut out by the Seahawks. The Bills ran all over the Steelers and the Chargers crushed the Raiders.

The AFC elite franchises were playing in prime time. Sunday night had the Broncos, in overtime, holding off the Commanders for their ninth straight win. Meanwhile, New England and Drake “Drake Maye” Maye let the nation go to bed early jumping out to a 30-7 halftime lead on Monday Night football as they cruised to their tenth consecutive win.

Now onto this week’s games to see if we can top the entertainment level in week thirteen.

Thursday Night Football features the Lions and Cowboys on their back-to-back Thursday games after their traditional hosting on Thanksgiving.

Sunday afternoon in the early window has the Seahawks in Atlanta, Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Buffalo to face Josh Allen, the Commanders and Vikings, the Colts in a must win against the Jaguars, the Dolphins at the Jets, the “who wants to win the AFC North?” bowl with the Steelers at the Ravens and finally the Saints going to Tampa to take on Baker and company.

The later window has just three games with the Broncos in Vegas, the Rams in the desert, and the 100 Year War continuing with the Bears headed to the frozen tundra to face the Packers with first place on the line in the NFC North.

Sunday Night Football features the best defense in the NFL facing Patrick Mahomes playing behind an offensive line missing three starters. The week wraps up on Monday Night Football with the World Champion Eagles trying to get back on track versus the banged up Chargers.

Each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and pre-pandemic as well).

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

Last Week: Straight up: 9-7; Against the Spread: 8-7-1

Season Totals: Straight up: 122-71-1; Against the Spread: 91-10201

Lock of the Week: 9-4

Upset Special: 4-10

Now, on to the week fourteen picks!

2025 NFL Week 14 Picks

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

COWBOYS 34 @ LIONS 27

Spread: Lions -3: Cowboys

Moneyline: Lions -166, Cowboys +140: Cowboys

O/U: 54.5: Under

(edit: Ugh, 0-1. I really thought Dallas’ offense could handle the Detroit defense. I didn’t figure on the Dallas defense collapsing like it did by losing 44-30)

SUNDAY 1:00PM

BENGALS 24 @ BILLS 27

Spread: Bills -5.5: Bengals

Moneyline: Bills -258, Bengals +210: Bills

O/U: 53.5: Under

SEAHAWKS 26 @ FALCONS 18

Spread: Seahawks -7: Seahawks

Moneyline: Seahawks -360, Falcons +285: Seahawks

O/U: 43.5: Over

SAINTS 16 @ BUCCANEERS 25

Spread: Buccaneers -8.5: Bucs

Moneyline: Buccaneers -440, Saints +340: Bucs

O/U: 42.5: Under

COLTS 24 @ JAGUARS 27

Spread: Colts -2.5: Jaguars

Moneyline: Colts -130, Jaguars +110: Jaguars

O/U: 47.5: Over

STEELERS 13 @ RAVENS 22

Spread: Ravens -6: Ravens

Moneyline: Ravens -290, Steelers +235: Ravens

O/U: 42.5: Under

TITANS 22 @ BROWNS 21

Spread: Browns -3.5: Titans

Moneyline: Browns -205, Titans +170: Titans

O/U: 33.5: Over

DOLPHINS 13 @ JETS 19 (UPSET SPECIAL)

Spread: Dolphins -2.5

Moneyline: Dolphins -155, Jets +130

O/U: 41.5 : Under

COMMANDERS 25 @ VIKINGS 20

Spread: Commanders -2.5: Commanders

Moneyline: Commanders +110, Vikings -130: Commanders

O/U: 41.5: Over

4:05/4:25PM:

BRONCOS 28 @ RAIDERS 10

Spread: Broncos -7.5: Broncos

Moneyline: Broncos -410, Raiders +320: Broncos

O/U: 40.5: Under

BEARS 24 @ PACKERS 28

Spread: Packers -6.5: Bears

Moneyline: Packers -340, Bears +270: Packers

O/U: 44.5: Over

RAMS 34 @ CARDINALS 16 (LOCK OF THE WEEK)

Spread: Rams -7.5: Rams

Moneyline: Rams -425, Cardinals +330: Rams

O/U: 47.5: Over

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

TEXANS 20 @ CHIEFS 16

Spread: Chiefs -3.5: Texans

Moneyline: Chiefs -180, Texans +150: Texans

O/U: 41.5: Under

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

EAGLES 22 @ CHARGERS 24

Spread: Eagles -3: Charges

Moneyline: Eagles -155, Chargers +130: Chargers

O/U: 40.5: Over

W2W4: New England Patriots vs New York Giants - Week Thirteen 2025

2025-11-28T16:48:00.007-05:00

It is very difficult to temper expectations when the New England Patriots have reached the end of November and are currently on top of the mountain as the number one seed in the AFC. My wildest expectations for this team was winning nine games and sneaking into the playoffs and getting annihilated by Buffalo, Baltimore or Kansas City. This is the most satisfying season as a fan since 2001 as far as exceeding expectations and the joy of seeing a young quarterback ascend towards superstardom.

New England beat Cincinnati, which was a game I did not expect them to win in any way shape or form when going through the schedule week by week before the season. The Bengals should have been a playoff team and a contender to knock off Baltimore in the AFC North. Instead, an injury to Joe Burrow derailed their season and New England was a “more than a touchdown” favorite going into the game.

After an incredible run of injury luck, the Patriots joined the other 31 teams in having significant injuries occur to important players on both sides of the football. They lost star defensive tackle Milton Williams to a high ankle sprain against the Jets that led to him being placed on injured reserve.

Last week, disaster occurred as both rookie starters on the left side of the offensive line were knocked out of the game due to injury. First-round draft pick left tackle Will Campbell suffered a knee injury after third-round draft pick left guard Jared Wilson went down with an ankle injury.

The Patriots got lucky again, as like the Williams injury, Wilson’s high ankle sprain is not a season-ender. may only cause him to miss the Giants game. For Campbell, who appeared to suffer a season-ending injury, he escaped with an MCL sprain and still could return before the end of the season or at the least the playoffs.

At 10-2, New England picked up a game after the Buffalo Bills lost for the fourth time in their last seven games after their 4-0 start. The Bills at 7-4 are now 2.5 games behind New England in the AFC East. The Bills lost on Thursday night to the Houston Texans and back-up quarterback Davis Mills after turning the ball over three times for the third consecutive game.

With a prime-time Monday Night Football match-up with the New York Giants on tap, the Patriots have to avoid looking ahead on the schedule to that match-up with Buffalo on December 14th. Yes, the Patriots have well deserved time off coming up after this game, but there are two huge AFC match-ups still looming after the bye week in December and they close the season with games against AFC East rivals.

New England needs to maintain focus right now solely on the Giants heading into the abnormally late in the season bye week.

New England is facing a Giants team that while 2-10 and in last place in the NFC East, are more talented than their record indicates with one of the most potent pass rushing defensive lines in the NFL. Going against a New England offensive line with two new starters this week, this could be a sneaky game where New York gets over the hump and pulls out a shocking upset. Remember, they’ve beaten Philadelphia and the Chargers in 2025 and should have beat Dallas, Denver, Chicago and the Lions last week.

The Giants just cannot seem to figure out how to close out a winnable game in 2025. Somehow, they have managed to lose five games that they led by double digits, which explains why their head coach and defensive coordinator have both been fired already. The Giants lost 34-27 in overtime to the Lions last week after they led 10-0, 17-7, and 27-17.

In fact, the Giants--despite missing their dynamic duo of rookies in quarterback Jaxson Dart (concussion) and running back Cam Skattebo (season ending ankle injury)--have continued to hang in there against good teams. They lost the last three games by one-score or less to the Bears (24-20), Packers (27-20), and Lions (34-27 in OT).

New England needs to treat the Giants as a 6-6 team that has already defeated really good teams and not look down at them due to their 2-10 record. That laissez-faire attitude almost cost them last week against the Bengals.

Last Week:

The New England Patriots eventually won this game 26-20 over the Bengals, but it was not pretty. In fact, the first quarter was probably their worst performance as a team since week three of the regular season versus Pittsburgh.

On the initial drive, the Patriots managed a first down on the first series but Drake Maye missed badly on third-and-four trying to find Mack Hollins and the Patriots were punting the ball to Cincinnati and Joe Flacco. Jared Wilson was injured on the third-down conversion and replaced by Ben Brown.

In an ominous start to the game, Chase Brown ripped through the number one ranked run defense coming into the game for ten yards. Flacco completed his first four passes and Cincinnati piled up three first down conversions on their opening drive before stalling at the New England 35 yard line and settling for an Evan McPherson field goal.

Once again playing from behind, the Patriots went three and out and something was clearly up with Maye as he continued missing badly on passes he normally completes. After punting, Cincinnati went back to running the ball down the Patriots’ throats and converting another three first downs, including a horrendous offsides penalty on fourth-and-four by K’Lavon Chaisson which fortunately was not costly as Flacco was sacked on third and five moving them out of field goal range.

After the Bengals punted to the Patriots, they made it 10-0 as Drake Maye had a wide open Hunter Henry and missed badly resulting in safety Geno Stone picking the ball off and returning it for a touchdown. Suddenly, less than a minute into the second quarter, the Patriots were down by two scores and Drake Maye was clearly off his game.

Maye bounced back as New England drove down the field with an immediate answer as Maye found Hunter Henry twice on back-to-back plays for 12 yards on third-and-two and then 28 yards for the touchdown. It was now 10-7.

Flacco came right back on the next drive and gifted New England another seven points with a terrible stare-down and throw to running back Tahj Brooks in the flat that Marcus Jones read and jumped the route. Jones almost overran the ball, but snatched it and waltzed into the end zone to put New England ahead 14-10.

After Cincinnati stalled on their next drive due to a holding penalty and a false start putting them into a third and 23 situation that even running a hook-and-ladder couldn’t convert, Maye led the Patriots into field goal range hooking up with his tight ends three time times before Andres Borregales nailed the 41-yard field goal.

With less than thirty seconds before halftime, the defense let Chase Brown loosed for a 21 yard run and after Flacco hit Tee Higgins for 16 yards, Evan McPherson took advantage of the defensive breakdown by New England by nailing a 63-yard field goal to make it 17-13 New England at the half.

As bad as New England played in the first half, the frustrations on offense were even worse in the second half. After forcing a three and out to start the half, New England quickly drove to the Cincinnati 1-yard line. They couldn’t convert on third and goal or fourth and goal, although a defensive penalty reset the down. At first and goal from the one-yard line, a failed run by Terrell Jennings, an incompletion, and then an offensive pass interference penalty wiped out a touchdown and moved them to the 11 yard line.

A completion to Hunter Henry moved them back to the one yard line, but failed runs by Rhamondre Stevenson on third and fourth down saw them turnover the ball on downs. The Bengals could not capitalize and punted it back to the Patriots. A sack on second-and-four ended a promising drive and New England settled for an Andres Borregales 45 yard field goal to make it 20-13.

The defense stopped Cincinnati again and the Bengals, despite the game being in the fourth quarter and near mid-field, only tried to draw the Patriots’ defense off-side rather than run a play on fourth-and-one. They took a delay of game and punted.

New England again drove into the red zone as Maye was on target and converted a first-and-twenty after a Ben Brown holding penalty. TreVeyon Henderson was in rhythm running the ball, Maye added a 12-yard scramble and the Patriots had first and goal at the four yard line.

Again, the short yardage demons emerged as Henderson rushed it to the one. On third and goal, Maye couldn’t get in on the quarterback keeper. Then head coach Mike Vrabel gave up and sent out Borregales for a 19 yard field goal.

Ahead 23-13 with six minutes left to play, the Patriots defense, which had been so effective all day, turtled up into a prevent defense and let Flacco drive the Bengals down the field in less than two minutes and score a touchdown to cut the lead to three points.

New England tried to run down the clock but the run game disappeared and they settled for a 52-yard field goal as Borregales pushed the lead to 26-20. With 1:51 to play, Flacco led the Bengals right down the field again, converting two fourth downs before facing a fourth-and-ten at the New England 26-yard line.

The Patriots dialed up pressure playing cover-0 and dropping safely Dell Pettus, who showed blitz and backed out into the passing lane Flacco was looking for on the slant. That caused him to reset and with the pass rush getting to him, fired a desperate pass to the goal line that was broken up by Marcus Jones to preserve the 26-20 win.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

Last week I made the mistake of calling the CBS announcing duo of Kevin Harlan and Trent Green as “the very solid B-team.” I take that back. Harlan is adequate but Green is absolutely useless in the booth. He offered zero insight, had a monotone delivery and seemed completely disinterested throughout the game.

This week’s game will be broadcast by ESPN and can be seen locally on WCVB-TV Channel 5. Joe Buck will handle play-by-play duties with former NFL quarterback Troy Aikman as the color analyst. Lisa Salters and Laura Rutledge will provide analysis from the sidelines.

Fortunately, Aikman is not monotone and disinterested. He actually is one of the few former players in the booth who has no hesitation to call out what he sees on the field and doesn’t seem concerned about whether someone may get upset. It’s actually quite refreshing.

If you’re into it, the giant forehead himself and his brother Gomer, I mean Peyton and Eli Manning, are broadcasting "Monday Night Football with Peyton and Eli" --aka the "ManningCast" -- on ESPN2 during the game. ESPN’s “Monday Night Countdown” pre-game program begins at 6:00PM. All their broadcasts are available to stream through the ESPN app as well.

This week’s game will be broadcast to a national audience on the radio by Westwood One Sports. Tom McCarthy will call the game with former Patriot and three-time Super Bowl Champion Devin McCourty providing analysis. McCarthy calls baseball games as the voice of the Philadelphia Phillies (alongside the zany former Phillies “legend” John Kruk--now that sounds fun!). Interesting note on McCarthy, he initially worked in the mid-nineties in multiple roles for the Red Sox double-A affiliate in Trenton as the radio voice, director of media relations and assistant General Manager.

I will credit Zolak as early in the game he seemed to think Maye had hit his hand on a helmet when he threw incomplete to Mack Hollins on third-and-four on the first drive. Maye was asked about it in the postgame press conference and indicated he didn’t think he hit his hand, but Maye isn’t one to make excuses.

The three for eight start for 16 yards and a pick-six seemed to imply something was up with Maye. As usual, the New England print and television media did absolutely zero work to dig into what happened.

The Sports Hub pregame show kicks-off at 8am with the always informative Alex Barth and Cerrone Battle. At 10am, the Patriots Pregame show begins featuring Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand (does he have anything of value to bring to the pregame show?) and Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper (at least he’s informative and intelligent and always sneaks in a vocabulary word that leads to looking up the word online) leading up to handing it off to Socci and Zo.

Don’t adjust your television set, the Patriots are in their throwback red uniforms Monday night which will just churn up Patriots PTSD for me. Please, don’t make me re-live those wonderful memories of the “Pat Patriot” logo and color scheme along with Tony Eason, Marc Wilson, Don Hasselbeck, Hart Lee Dykes, John Stephens, Maurice Hurst, Roland James, Kenneth Sims, and all the other Patriots players and teams that failed miserably throughout my childhood.

It will be the Patriots’ first Monday Night Football game since their 27-13 win at Arizona in December 2022. Don’t remember that game? That was the game they knocked Kyler Murray out for the season and he never was the same again. Raekwon McMillan had a fumble return touchdown and the immortal Pierre Strong rushed for 70 yards on five carries including a three yard rushing touchdown.

It was the second Monday Night game for the Patriots that season as in October at Gillette Stadium “the beginning of the end of Bill Belichick in New England game” occurred when Justin Fields looked like the next great NFL quarterback destroying New England 33-14 in one of the ugliest losses by Belichick as Patriots head coach.

Key Stats:

The Patriots are now 4-2 at Gillette Stadium and 6-0 on the road in 2025 as they will host the New York Giants on Monday Night Football this week in prime time. The current nine-game winning streak in 2025 is the longest streak since some guy with a horrible looking statue outside the stadium was under center in Foxboro.

New England’s offense is still averaging 26.5 points per game after hitting that average with 26 points in their win over the Bengals remaining seventh in the league in points scored, After piling up 392 total yards against the Bengals’ defense, New England is up to eighth in the NFL as they topped 4,000 total yards of offense for the season (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).

For the third consecutive game, Drake Maye was only sacked one time. That improvement is some credit to the offensive line, but a lot for Maye in actually throwing the ball away rather than trying to extend every single play. This is something all young quarterbacks have to learn, and Maye has made a dramatic improvement during the season after running into too many sacks earlier in the season.

Maye remains the completion percentage leader despite dropping to a 71.0% completion rate and leads the league with 3,130 yards passing. He now has 21 touchdowns passing to just six interceptions. He is first in the league in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (factoring in touchdown passes and interceptions) with a 9.24 yards average.

New England, while sixth in passing yards, remains 27th in the league in pass attempts, an extraordinary statistic. This shows the commitment by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ commitment to the inept running game that is 27th in yards per attempt in order to set up play action. Credit May for his efficiency and downfield vision for creating big plays without traditional big play receivers in the passing game.

While improving in preventing sacks, the Patriots are still struggling to run the football despite getting Rhamondre Stevenson back last week. They are 19th in rushing yards with just 1,349 yards on the ground after rushing for 107 yards last week, which sounds good except that it included 31 attempts (counting kneel downs) to get those yards.

On defense, the emphasis by head coach Mike Vrabel and interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr (Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams has been on medical leave much of training camp and the season) on controlling the opponent’s running game took a big step back last week. Chase Brown went off for Cincinnati becoming the first running back to total 100 yards on the ground against New England this season.

That dropped the Patriots from first overall in rushing yards and attempts allowed to second, but they still allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (4). They are allowing teams to rush for 4.0 yards per attempt, which is 11th best in the NFL. With Milton Williams on injured reserve and Khyiris Tonga’s status for Monday night up in the air with a chest injury, the Patriots run defense is a question mark right now.

The team defense dropped from fifth to sixth in the NFL in points allowed (18.8 per game) and eighth in total yards allowed. The passing defense took a hit last week as Cincinnati moved the ball through the air even without Ja’Marr Chase on the field.

The New England pass defense was 26th in passing yards allowed heading into week five. After twelve weeks, they’ve improved to 17th in passing yards allowed. They’ve cut down significantly on the big chunk plays allowed and are now 13th in net yards allowed per attempt (after being as bad as 29th earlier in the season).

NE Offense vs NYG Defense:

The Patriots are facing a New York Giants team that is coming off yet another crushing defeat after blowing 27-17 fourth quarter lead over the Detroit Lions before falling in overtime 34-27. The Giants are 2-10 but their Pythagorean record (or expected record based on points scored and allowed) is between 4-8 and 5-7. They lost two games in overtime and the worst defensive collapse of the season in October in the fourth quarter against the Broncos where they blew 19-0 and 26-8 leads.

In that game, they actually came back on offense and took a 32-30 lead with just 37 seconds to play in the game and the defense still blew that lead to lose 33-32. I watched that game in a Seattle bar surrounded by a huge extended family of Denver Broncos fans and that energy as they came back just swept over the whole place.

The New England offense is now seventh in the league on third down conversion percentage (42.4%) and are excellent on fourth down (13 of 17 conversions for an 76.5%) ranking number one in the league in fourth down conversion percentage. They failed on their fourth-and-goal try last week, but it was still the correct call to be aggressive.

The Red Zone problems--as I’ve been warning about all year--was on full display last week as the Patriots dropped to 20th in Red Zone TD percentage (down from 14th a few weeks ago) with just 23 of 42 trips resulting in touchdowns (54.8%). Last week saw the Patriots put up a total of three points after having the ball at the one-yard line twice.

New York’s defense is 30th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed. Of course, the Bengals were worse last week and New England only scored 26 points on that defense. New York struggles against the passing game (23rd in passing yards allowed) and against the run they are especially abysmal ranking 32nd in rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt (5.9 yds/attempt) and 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed with 17.

The Giants are 21st in the NFL on third down percentage, allowing a 40.1% conversion rate (57 of 142). On fourth down, they’ve allowed nine of 13 conversions. In the Red Zone, the defense has been horrible as they’re 31st overall allowing touchdowns on 30 of 42 trips inside the 20 yard line.

Tendencies wise on defense, the Giants are about middle of the pack across the board. They’re basically league average in blitz rate (per Sharp Football Analysis) at 27.1%. They are middle of the pack as far as man/zone coverages, as neither seems too well for them.

Pass Offense:

The Giants’ pass rush has the potential to be hugely disruptive, which is why the terrible defense is so surprising. Rookie Abdul Carter was probably the most NFL ready player in the 2025 NFL Draft and although the sack numbers aren’t there, the quarterback hits and pressure rate show he is effective.

The Giants also have another high draft pick in Kayvon Thibodeaux, who can bring the speed rush but only has 2.5 sacks despite generating pressure. The star this season is Brian Burns, as the former Carolina Panther has 13 sacks so far in a dozen games.

The inside pass rush is no joke in New York either, as both 2019 first round draft pick Dexter Lawrence and Rakeem Nunez-Roches (3 sacks) can be disruptive.

So why is this defense so bad? The pass rush wears down. And that secondary, woof!

The Giants fired long-time Mike Vrabel confidant Shane Bowen as defensive coordinator and replaced him with Charlie Bullen as interim defensive coordinator. With head coach Brian Daboll already replaced with interim leader Mike Kafka, this is another band-aid on a car crash.

Jevon Holland is the jewel of the Giants’ secondary. The former Dolphin was not re-signed in Miami for…well, reasons I can’t seem to fathom even now months later. Holland can cover tight ends, patrol the deep middle of the field, and is a ballhawk in the secondary.

Of course, he’s only one player and can do so much against New England’s receiving tight ends and Drake “Drake Maye” Maye’s precision passing attack downfield.

Second-year second-round pick Tyler Nubin has struggled again at safety. He has been a liability in coverage and has been picked on by teams with strong mutule-tight end formations. He missed the last two games with a neck injury and his status for Monday night isn’t known yet. If he can’t go, Dane Belton is next in line.

At cornerback, the Giants paid a ton for Paulson Adebo and he’s been…well, just average when on the field. Adebo is also banged up and has been out for the last five games with a knee injury and his return is unknown.

The Giants also were without Deonte Banks due to a hip injury last week. There isn’t much depth left as starters Cor’Dale Flott and Dru Phillips have struggled but have no one ready to step up and take their place. The defensive coordinator was fired, but he didn’t bring in these secondary players who haven’t been good at all in 2025.

The New England offensive line gave up some pressure but only one sack for the third consecutive week last week. Unfortunately, the offensive line is having some shuffling against their will as injuries to impressive rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson will introduce new starters on the left side of the line.

Veteran Ben Brown took over at left guard after Wilson went down on the first drive of the game and held up well. He filled in for a game early in the season for Wilson and was perfectly fine. Brown is a low-end starter/strong veteran backup who may only need to fill in a game or two until Wilson returns.

At left tackle, PTSD-inducing left tackle Vederian Lowe was actually average to above-average replacing Campbell last week. Last year, Lowe looked like the worst left tackle in NFL history. He recently revealed he gutted through last season playing with a torn labrum, which explains a lot about his performance. So fully healthy at last, Josh McDaniels still gave him additional help with chips and extra blockers (what a concept!) and that seemed to make a huge difference and build up his confidence.

The Patriots also have seventh-round draft pick, the preseason star, Marcus Bryant from Missouri. Bryant can play on the left and right side and he subbed in for Morgan Moses for a few plays last week as Moses was suffering from an “illness”. Whether Bryant is left as right-side backup only or Lowe stays on the left side won’t be revealed until Monday night.

The New England tight ends stepped up last week as Drake Maye struggled to get the receivers involved against a Bengals secondary that had one of its best performances of the season. Maye finished with 294 yards through the air, but Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper combined for ten receptions for 154 yards.

Stefon Diggs was taken out of the passing attack the entire first half last week and finished with just two receptions for 20 yards. Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte each had two catches each. Kyle Williams had an 18 yard reception and Demario Douglas popped for a key 37 yard catch.

Run Offense:

The Patriots continued to be inconsistent in the running game in 2025 and after a few strong performances against Tennessee, Cleveland, Atlanta and Tampa Bay, the inconsistencies showed up against the dreadful Bengals run defense last week.

Although rookie TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing, it took 18 carries for him to reach 66 yards with a long of nine yards. Rhamondre Stevenson returned, but both he and Terrell Jennings were ineffective at the

The Giants defense is no better than the Jets or Bengals run defense has been, so the New England rushing attack having struggled the past two weeks against teams they should have dominated is very troubling for this matchup against the Giants.

Fortunately, the Giants are just terrible against the run. None of these pass rushing beasts are particularly effective against the run up front and that creates problems as teams have piled up yards on the ground.

So far, they have allowed 200+ rushing yards three times (including 237 yards on the ground last week to Detroit) and three more games of 150 plus yards rushing. Only twice have they managed to hold teams under 100 yards rushing (weeks five and six versus New Orleans and Philadelphia).

The linebackers are just okay. Bobby Okereke piles up tackles, but is just okay in coverage and Neville Hewitt and rookie Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles have struggled tackling and giving up big plays. If the offensive linemen get to the second-level, there are big plays aplenty in the run game.

For New England, Josh McDaniels is not going to abandon the running game, especially with injuries along the offensive line. The Patriots have been committed even without success to set-up play action passing. The Patriots have 347 rushing attempts through 12 weeks and 357 passing attempts.

Getting Rhamondre Stevenson back to health after his toe injury will help the rushing attack, but the big play capability and receiving skills he brings should keep him as the primary back in the offense. After the struggles at the goal line last week reached near comical levels, the Patriots have to either embrace a finesse running game or make changes in the trenches.

NYG Offense vs NE Defense

The Giants are simply a different team with first-round draft pick Jaxson Dart at quarterback. Dart missed the past two games, but his return from a concussion should give a boost to the offense. With five starts with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, the Giants are 0-5 and the two quarterbacks have combined for five touchdowns and five interceptions.

With Dart, the Giants are 2-5 in his seven starts and he has ten passing touchdowns to just three interceptions. In addition, Dart is a weapon with his legs as he averages 5.6 yards per rush and has added seven touchdowns on the ground.

Dart is laser-focused on two favorite receivers: slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and tight end Theo Johnson. Darius Slayton is the only other wide receiver with ten receptions other than the injured Malik Nabors. Isaiah Hodges has recently rejoined the Giants and in two games with Winston at quarterback immediately became a needed additional option on offense with seven catches for 99 yards.

The Patriots have been so dependent on the defense being able to get off the field on third down and get the ball back to the offense. They are seventh in the NFL now allowing just 35.6% of third downs. On the season, they’re also third best in the NFL with just seven conversions on 19 attempts allowed (36.8%).

The struggle on defense in New England has remained to be the Red Zone. Opponents have 19 touchdowns on 26 trips for a 73.1% conversion rate after the Bengals scored on their only trip inside the twenty. The Bengals scored on a defensive touchdown and had two field goals where they got nowhere near the red zone before scoring late in the fourth quarter.

New England played pretty well on defense against an explosive offense last week, although they were hampered by missing Chase and losing Tee Higgins to a concussion during the game. Dart will pressure them in ways that Joe Flacco or Justin Fields could not do in these past two weeks.

Pass Defense:

The Giants are not a heavy three wide receiver offense and are near the bottom percentage along with the Patriots offense. While New England leans into the multiple running backs, the Giants go heavy with two tight ends in their base offense.

That is not an ideal offense for the Patriots to match up against.

The Patriots are fifth in the NFL as far as Sub Package Rate (five or more defensive backs) and any defensive alignment without their three cornerbacks on it does not bode well for the Patriots playing to their strengths.

With the Giants playing with more than 50% of their snaps with two or more tight ends for the season, they’ve really leaned into the multi-tight ends since head coach Brian Daboll was fired. Third tight end Chris Manhertz played 34% of the snaps last week while starters Theo Johnson (78%) and Daniel Bellinger (62%) were on the field a bunch.

This forces the Patriots to play a heavier base defense and with Khyiris Tonga questionable for Monday night, that is a huge piece in the middle of the defense missing. But the Patriots will have to have more linebackers and safeties on the field because these tight ends can all post-up the five-foot-nine Marcus Jones.

Jahlani Tavai is a key part of the linebacker rotation and would be expected to have a larger role this week, except he is dealing with a personal situation and is likely to miss a second consecutive game. That means more Jack Gibbens (run defender deluxe, but not much to talk about in coverage) and Marte Mapu.

Mapu did not play at all on defense last week, limited to special teams only. At six-foot-three and 230 lbs., Mapu has the size and athleticism to match-up with the New York tight ends in coverage.

The Giants’ wide receivers don’t strike fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators with Malik Nabors on injured reserve, but Wan’Dale Robinson has picked up the slack. He had nine receptions for 156 yards and a touchdown last week against Detroit and is a handful for longer cornerbacks at five-foot-eight and very quick and shifty.

Darius Slayton is wildly inconsistent week to week. After having season highs in receptions (five) and then yards (89) in consecutive weeks, he went out last week and pulled in just one catch the entire game. He fills the role of the long outside receiver in the offense but should have a tough test with Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez.

Isaiah Hodgkins was rescued off the Steelers’ practice squad and is comfortable with the Giants after having been with them for the prior three seasons. He stopped in and is already stealing snaps from Slayton.

The Giants have former Patriots fan favorite Gunner Olszewski as back-up slot receiver and returner/special teams ace. Olszewski channeled his inner Julian Edelman last week and threw a touchdown pass to Jameis Winston on a trick play. The Giants have also elevated former Falcons receiver Ray-Ray McCloud from the practice squad a few times. Both don’t get many options, but both have a little juice and could be called on for a little trickeration.

What was odd about week twelve was that Davis and Jones were the stars of the secondary in New England and Gonzalez had one of his worst performances in New England. While Jones had the pick-six and broke up the last gasp attempt by Flacco.

Davis was the victim of a ticky-tacky DPI call, but bounced back with three pass breakups on the final drive and was playing like a man possessed. Davis and Jones only allowed four receptions each despite being targeted nine times each.

Gonzalez allowed five completions on six targets for 48 yards and the 17-yard touchdown to Mitchell Tinsley. To see Gonzalez allowing a 139.6 rating in coverage was shocking. He had been excellent this season after getting his feet under him after missing the first three weeks.

Opposing teams have been running bunch formations, particularly on third downs, in an attempt to isolate Gonzalez on a tight end or lesser wide receiver in three-by-one formations this year to keep him off their top wide receiver. The Jets did that to get AD Mitchell and John Metchie away from matchups with Gonzalez, just as Atlanta and Tampa Bay had done to get more favorable matchups for Drake London and Emeka Ebuka.

Joe Flacco, the fearless veteran, showed absolutely no fear and went right at Gonzalez without any deception. Look, I get that he is a human being and not a robot, but Gonzalez has been so consistently superb since day one arriving in Foxboro that it was a surprise. Cincinnati didn’t test him deep, but did find receivers coming back a few times with Gonzalez giving a cushion.

The New England pass rush will have extra pressure on them to contain the elusive Dart who is more than capable of making plays with his feet. Coming off of yet another concussion and missing a few games, the Giants may be hesitant to dial up too many designed quarterback runs, but Dart can extend plays and loves to take a deep shot when outside the pocket.

With interior pass rusher Milton Williams on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and out for a while, the Patriots need Christian Barmore to be a disruptive force with inside pressure. Cory Durden, Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory are not even close to the pass rushing force that Milton is for the Patriots. However, they need to find a way to contain Dart and keep him from escaping the pocket and running for first downs.

Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson need to step up. Chaisson missed a sack and Landry had the only one New England managed. Whether it is fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson or undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder, New England needs to get the youngsters some opportunity to get their young and fresh legs on the field and not wear out Chaisson and Landry before the postseason.

The Giants as a passing offense don’t really match-up with their stats since Winston, Wilson and Dart are totally different quarterbacks. What is clear watching the Giants in 2025 is that the offensive line is not really the root of their problems (this season, at least). They’re middle of the pack in pressure rate allowed and time to throw.

It all starts in New York on the offensive line with left tackle Andrew Thomas. When he’s out of the lineup due to injury the offense just does not function. Thomas ranks in the top five among all offensive tackles this season in pass blocking and overall score per Pro Football Focus. In ten games he’s had just three penalties and allowed just one sack.

Jon Runyan is a below-average guard but the Giants overpaid for him in free agency in 2024 and are stuck with him this season due to the almost $10 in guaranteed money and lack of a better option. Center John Michael Schmitz isn’t much better than Runyan and in his third season after being a second-round draft pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the high expectations just have not been met.

On the right side of the offensive line, the Giants have veteran Greg Van Roten at guard and former Patriots tackle Jermaine Eluemunor. Both Van Roten and Eluemunor were signed as free agents after the Raiders made little effort to re-sign either of them. Picking through the Raiders’ leftovers on the offensive line is usually not a winning formula for building strong blockers.

The veteran Van Roten is much better in pass blocking than in the running game and that has been clear this season in his age 35 season. On his sixth team in his 11th NFL season (Green Bay, Carolina, the Jets, Buffalo, Las Vegas and now the Giants), the Penn alumni (that is not a typo he did not play at Penn State for the Nittany Lions, he played college ball at Penn for the Quakers) is nearing the end of the line but hasn’t missed a game since 2022.

Eluemunor has been a solid and steadying presence on the Giants right side of the line working well with the veteran Van Roten. He piles up the penalties (nine so far) but has only allowed four sacks. Eluemunor was a fifth-round pick in Baltimore who bounced back and forth to the practice squad over two seasons. Bill Belichick sent a fourth-round pick to the Ravens for him and a sixth-round pick in 2019.

Eluemunor was originally tried at guard in 2019 before getting some starts at right tackle during the pandemic season in 2020. He went to the Raiders in free agency where he was joined by former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels who brought assistant offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo to take the line coach role.

He spent three years in Las Vegas settling in at right tackle and followed Bricillo to New York in free agency where his average to above-average play at right tackle was welcome after the Giants faithful were subjected to the horrors of watching former top-ten draft pick Evan Neal fail miserably for three seasons at the tackle position.

The Giants have a heavy use of Shotgun Rate, which makes sense with a rookie quarterback who hasn’t played much under center in college. Another passing game tendency to be alert for during the game is the Giants using no huddle/tempo. They rank third as far as highest rate of running the no-huddle offense (per Sharp Football Analysis).

Run Defense:

The Giants are going to come in and test the New England run defense. There is no doubt about that. The Giants two wins saw them pile up 161 and 172 yards on the ground in those games.

Even without rookie sensation Cam Skattebo (seriously, how did he last until the fourth round of the NFL Draft?) who is on injured reserve, last year’s rookie sensation and fifth-round draft pick Tyrone Tracy has picked up the slack on the ground. After rushing for 839 yards as a rookie, Tracy has rushed for 71, 88 and 62 yards as the lead back again in New York.

The offensive line are actually better pass blockers than run blockers, but the Giants like to have two or three tight ends on the field together and try to make space for the running backs. Theo Johnson is an excellent receiver but a willing run blocker. Daniel Bellinger and veteran Chris Manhertz are the run blockers (particularly Bellinger, who is a force when he gets downhill).

The Giants also have former Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary, who has gone from buried on the depth chart to a 50% split with Tracy. He has had 30 rush attempts in the past two weeks (although he’s only gained 91 yards, just over 3.0 yards per rush).

Singletary spent four years in Buffalo and twice topped 800 yards rushing for the Bills. James Cook forced him out and he landed in Houston on a one-year deal and rushed for 898 yards. The Giants signed him to a three-year, $16.5 million contract with $9.5 million in guarantees. He has not lived up to that contract and likely will be a free agent again this offseason.

The New England run defense has struggled the past three weeks after being the strength of the defense for the first half of the season. The Bengals (120 yards) became the fourth team to top 100 yards rushing so far in 2025 against New England joining Carolina (129 yards), Buffalo (118 yards) Tampa (113 yards) and the Jets (140 yards).

These last three games, however, there are no caveats. The Buccaneers offensive line was winning up front and making room for Sean Tucker and Rachaad White. Jets were a load with Justin Fields and Breece Hall before they inexplicably stopped using Fields as a dual threat runner.

Last week, the Bengals took advantage of New England losing Khyiris Tonga and already missing Milton Williams to pile up 120 yards on just 23 carries. Running back Chase Brown topped 100 yards rushing as the first running back to do so this season against New England. He finished with 107 yards on 19 carries and had only five rushes that were for one or zero yards.

Nose tackle Khyiris Tonga being out is a huge concern. He had a chest injury and left the game, tried to come back, but couldn’t continue. He is likely to miss Monday night’s game and use the bye week to get healthy.

Veteran Eric Gregory and big body Jeremiah Pharms (if elevated from the practice squad again) should see time filling in for Tonga. Also, expect a big role for Cory Durden as the former undrafted free agent who bounced from the Lions to the Rams to the Giants seems to have found a role and a home in New England with Mike Vrabel.

Edge rusher Anfernee Jennings is one of the best edge setters on the roster and may work in the rotation for more early down snaps for Chaisson or Landry if the Giants’ running game gets going on Monday night.

Linebackers Robert Spillane, Jack Gibbens and Christian Ellis have extra responsibilities now with Jahlani Tavai likely out for personal reasons. They have been solid bottling up running backs behind or near the line of scrimmage for the most part this season, but that was with Williams and Tonga keeping opposing guards from reaching the second level.

For New England, the game plan will revert to their season-long strategy regardless of who is on the field. They are going to attempt to stop the Giants’ 32nd ranked rushing attack (fewest yards rushing in the NFL with just 1,494) by bottling up Tracy and Singletary, keep Dart from using his legs as a weapon, and then make them one-dimensional and use their superior cornerback trio to get the ball back to their offense.

It all starts with stopping the run. I expect there was extra focus from acting defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr to shoring that part of the game plan all week at practice. If they can do that, it will go a long way towards whether they can get to a tenth consecutive victory.

Other Factors:

The Giants are currently on kicker number three of the season. Veteran Graham Gano started the season with the job but was injured and out after week three. Irishman Jude McAtamney was called up from the practice squad but after four games he was sent down to the practice squad and later released. He missed two extra points against Denver in a game they lost by one point.

Gano returned, but the 38-year old was injured again. The Giants passed over McAtamney and brought up the former Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo, who was released after week one when he missed a 44-yard tying field goal. The Falcons have many more problems than Koo, but after dumping all their problems on him after one week they’re sitting at 4-7 in the NFC South looking up at Carolina.

Koo has been four-of-four on field goals and seven-of-eight on extra points in three games with New York. The Giants have former Pitt Panther Ben Sauls on the practice squad after signing him off Atlanta’s practice squad. Atlanta had signed Sauls, who was cut by Pittsburgh after training camp, when they replaced Koo with Patriots’ double-agent John Parker Romo. Romo, of course, acting on orders from Robert Kraft, missed the game-tying extra point in the Patriots’ 24-23 win over the Falcons.

Sauls left for the Giants’ practice squad after Atlanta bypassed him when Romo was released and signed Zane Gonzalez. Atlanta sure loves blaming their problems on the kicker, don’t they? General Manager Terry Fontenot’s seat must be pretty hot if he’s taking his anger out on kickers as the team he built crumbles and his likely top ten draft pick this year goes to the Rams because he had to trade back into the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft to get another pass rusher.

I could trash the Falcons all day (28-3), but I have so much more class than to kick Arthur Blank and sideline dancing ass during Super Bowl 51 (28-3) back on February 5, 2017. Definitely (28-3) no lingering (28-3) resentment for Atlanta (28-3). God, I love James White.

Anyway, back to the Giants, the moral of the story is that you could do much worse than Koo at kicker. Punter Jamie Gillan is my favorite punter in the NFL. Nicknamed the Scottish Hammer, the Scotsman has a strong leg and absolutely luscious flowing locks of hair spilling out of his helmet and down his back.

Gillan handled the kickoffs for Gano for a while but had his struggles there with a couple of kicking penalties against the Bears a couple of weeks ago. He followed that up with a shanked punt of 26-yards with less than three minutes to play, setting up the Bears near midfield allowing them to come from behind in the fourth quarter.

Gillan has been fine since that debacle, however, focusing on punting and letting Koo handle the kickoffs. He is second worst among punters in yards per punt, but a little better than that in net yards.

The Giants’ return units are average on punting and a bit above average on kickoff returns. Their coverage units are above average on both kick and punt return defense, having avoided any big kick or punt returns in 2025.

The Patriots coverage units have been solid if not spectacular. Per The Football Database, New England is sixth in the NFL in kick return coverage, tied with the Giants allowing just 24.0 yards average.

Punt coverage is where the worries are for the Patriots’ special teams. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but just the ninth worst but rank 23rd punt coverage unit allowing 12.63 yards per return.

The Patriots are middle of the pack in kickoff returns, averaging 25.19 yards per return. Antonio Gibson was fantastic in the kick return game and had a 90-yard touchdown return against Miami. However, since he went to injured reserve the Patriots have had TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Terrell Jennings, Rhamondre Stevenson and Efton Chism (who is on the practice squad) as the returner with mixed results.

The punt return game belongs to Marcus Jones as he has handled all the punts. He had an 87-yard return against Carolina for a touchdown and almost broke another as he took it 61 yards. Since then, he has had very few opportunities as opposing special teams coaches have made their punters very aware of who was back returning punts for the Patriots.

In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has really settled in after a rough start. He missed two extra points in week two and missed a field goal in week one. Since week two he has been perfect on extra points and has missed just one field goal a few weeks back against the Jets.

Punter Bryce Baringer has been excellent in the past four games averaging between 49 and 51 yards per punt. He had a rough stretch with some wobblers against Cleveland and Tennessee. He has just four touchbacks while dropping 16 punts inside the 20 yard line.

Who can tell unless he air-mails or dirt-hops a snap, but the rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine as far as I’ve seen so far.

Efton Chism has been on the active roster to return kicks and has been…just okay. The Patriots are middle of the pack average on returns averaging 25.26 yards per return per The Football Database. He’s used up his elevations from the practice squad, so last week Kyle Williams and Terrell Jennings were the returners.

New England is fourth in the NFL in punt returns at 14.62 yards per return. Marcus Jones remains a threat to return a punt to the house anytime and has had very limited opportunities as teams are trying to force a fair catch or kick out of bounds. The Patriots are sixth in the NFL in fair catches as punters try to play keep-away from Magnificent Marcus.

Game Pick:

The injuries are piling up and the Patriots are desperate for their bye next week. With such a late bye week, the Patriots are clearly running out of gas. With Cincinnati blowing the doors off the Ravens on Thanksgiving night after getting Joe Burrow back and having Ja’Marr Chase back from suspension, the win last week looks a pinch more impressive.

The Giants are a better team than their record and get the boost of getting Jaxson Dart back. The game is a prime-time game on Monday Night Football which pulls New England out of their routine of 1:00 PM on Sunday games (a Sunday night, a Thursday night, and now Monday night--every other game was Sunday in the early window). Now factor in that they’re looking ahead to the bye week…ugh, another trap game.

Yes, I know I picked the Buccaneers over the Patriots, I called the Jets Thursday Night Football game a trap game, and I warned that having Joe Burrow back at practice would give the entire Bengals team a boost, and I feel like I was right and the Patriots deserve credit for stepping up and winning all three games even if in less than impressive fashion.

I am leaning into the Patriots winning a tenth consecutive game just because of Drake “Drake Maye” Maye at quarterback. While I will pick the Patriots to win the game, I am picking the Giants to cover the spread and the final score just under the 46.5 points on the under/over this week.

The Giants are in just about every game and are getting a boost getting their impressive young quarterback back to health. It is a prime time game and they are also going into a bye week and are looking at no game that they shouldn’t have a chance to win (Washington, Minnesota, Las Vegas and Dallas) and finish the season with a respectable finish.

Like Cincinnati, the Giants are going to be pumped up playing the current #1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots have gutted out the last four games: Atlanta was a one-point win thanks to a missed extra point and the defense having to make a stop; the defense made a huge fourth down stop against Tampa and Stefon Diggs made a great play on the onside kick attempt to secure the win; the Jets jumped out to an early lead giving the Patriots a scare on Thursday night; last week the Patriots came out flat and Maye had his worst quarter since week three before they just barely gutted out a win needing a huge fourth down stop by the defense.

The Patriots are tired. The Patriots are beat-up. But the Patriots have Drake Maye. That’s enough for me to pick them to win this week.

GIANTS 20 @ PATRIOTS 24

Spread: Patriots -7.5: Giants

Moneyline: Patriots -425, Giants +330: Patriots

O/U: 46.5 - Under

NFL Week 13 2025 - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2025-11-27T07:31:00.001-05:00

Week twelve of the 2025 NFL season could go down in history as one of the better weeks of football in a 2025 season that seemingly has delivered a high level of excitement and minimized the weeks with dud match-up after dud match-up. This past week had a bit of everything to whet the appetite of the NFL fan.

The Texans kicked things off on Thursday Night Football harassing and pressuring Josh Allen and the stumbling Bills. Davis Mills did just enough for a Houston offense that is rounding into form as we barrel towards December.

The Steelers fell to the magical first-place Chicago Bears as Aaron Rodgers was out injured. The first place New England Patriots had fans searching online for "pyrrhic victory” as injuries mounted as they held off what could have been the last game of the illustrious and sometimes elite career of Joe Flacco.

The NFC North favorite Lions and Packers added wins trying to keep up with the Bears (“I’ll take ‘Sentences I did not plan to write in 2025’ for $1000, Alex.”) with the Lions mounting an “Alcoa presents: Fantastic Finishes” come from behind win over the pesky Giants and Jameis Winston.

In a game nowhere as close as the score, Seattle beat Cam Ward and the Titans 30-24. The Ravens did not look cohesive on offense, but fortunately for them they were playing the Jets and won handily. In the Heavyweight Bout, the Colts abandoned the aggressiveness that got them to first place in the AFC South and meekly punted away multiple times including overtime as they fell to the Chiefs 23-20.

In the late window the highlighted game featured the World Champion Eagles beating up their division rival Cowboys 21-0 before the wheels fell off in the Big D and Dallas and Dak stormed back for a 24-21 win. The Raiders inched closer to a top draft pick losing to Shadeur Sanders and the Browns. The Saints improved their draft position losing to NFC South compatriots and potential top-ten pickers the Falcons.

On Sunday night, the reeling Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran into a brick wall called the Rams’ impressive front seven but the secondary was the star of the show in prime time. Finally, on Monday Night Football, the Panthers may not have lost their heart in San Francisco, but they forgot to pack their offense as Brock Purdy threw three first half interceptions and San Francisco still won handily 20-9.

What a week that was! Now onto this week to see if we can top the entertainment level in week thirteen.

Thanksgiving is upon us and what a day for watching football. The Lions have become relevant in the Dan Campbell era and a must-watch in the early window while still elbowing family members away from my blueberry pie. It’s a full-on century old grudge match as the Packers face-off in a game with huge divisional impact

Sunday Night Football features the . The week wraps up on Monday Night Football with the

Each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and pre-pandemic as well).

Check out this week’s episode as we recapped week twelve, pulled out the panic meter to look at the suddenly contentious AFC South, sorted through all the big news with “Truth or Exaggeration”, and of course all the game predictions and prognostications with our bold predictions--it is available here.

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

Last Week: Straight up:12-2; Against the Spread: 9-5

Season Totals: Straight up: 113-64-1; Against the Spread: 83-95

Lock of the Week: 8-4

Upset Special: 4-8

I was on fire with my picks last week! I need to keep that momentum going and Now, on to the week thirteen picks!

2025 NFL Week 13 Picks

THURSDAY THANKSGIVING FOOTBALL

PACKERS 25 @ LIONS 32

Spread: Lions -2.5: Lions

Moneyline: Lions -142, Packers +120: Lions

O/U: 48.5: Over

CHIEFS 35 @ COWBOYS 36

Spread: Chiefs -3.5: Cowboys

Moneyline: Chiefs -170, Cowboys +142: Cowboys

O/U: 52.5: Over

BENGALS 18 @ RAVENS 19

Spread: Ravens -7: Bengals

Moneyline: Ravens -340, Bengals +270: Ravens

O/U: 51.5: Under

BLACK FRIDAY

BEARS 21 @ EAGLES 20

Spread: Eagles -7: Bears

Moneyline: Eagles -325, Bears +260: Bears

O/U: 44.5: Under

SUNDAY 1:00PM

TEXANS 20 @ COLTS 24

Spread: Colts -4.5: Texans

Moneyline: Colts -225, Texans +185: Colts

O/U: 44.5: Under

49ERS 24 @ BROWNS 20

Spread: 49ers -6: Browns

Moneyline: 49ers -298, Browns +240: 49ers

O/U: 39.5: Over

SAINTS 24 @ DOLPHINS 27

Spread: Dolphins -6: Saints

Moneyline: Dolphins -250, Saints +205: Dolphins

O/U: 41.5: Over

JAGUARS 20 @ TITANS 22

Spread: Jaguars -6.5: Titans

Moneyline: Jaguars -325, Titans +260: Titans

O/U: 42.5: Under (by a whisker!)

FALCONS 18 @ JETS 15

Spread: Falcons -2.5: Falcons

Moneyline: Falcons -142, Jets +120: Falcons

O/U: 39.5: Under

RAMS 30 @ PANTHERS 13

Spread: Rams -10.5: Rams

Moneyline: Rams -600, Panthers +440: Rams

O/U: 45.5: Under

CARDINALS 29 @ BUCCANEERS 33

Spread: Buccaneers -3: Bucs

Moneyline: Buccaneers -155, Cardinals +130: Bucs

O/U: 44.5: Over

4:05/4:25PM:

VIKINGS 13 @ SEAHAWKS 34 (LOCK OF THE WEEK)

Spread: Seahawks -10.5: Seahawks

Moneyline: Seahawks -500, Vikings +380: Seahawks

O/U: 41.5: Over

RAIDERS 17 @ CHARGERS 34

Spread: Chargers -10: Chargers

Moneyline: Chargers -625, Raiders +455: Chargers

O/U: 41.5: Over

BILLS 22 @ STEELERS 23 (UPSET SPECIAL)

Spread: Bills -3.5: Steelers

Moneyline: Bills -198, Steelers +164: Steelers

O/U: 47.5: Under

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

BRONCOS 16 @ COMMANDERS 13 (In Overtime)

Spread: Broncos -6.5: Commanders

Moneyline: Broncos -310, Commanders +250: Broncos

O/U: 43.5: Under

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

GIANTS 20 @ PATRIOTS 24

Spread: Patriots -7.5: Giants

Moneyline: Patriots -425, Giants +330: Patriots

O/U: 46.5: Under

W2W4: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals - Week Twelve 2025

2025-11-22T07:35:00.000-05:00

Yes, it certainly looks like it is going to be that kind of season for the New England Patriots.

After dispatching the New York Jets on a short week with a nationally televised prime-time audience able to get the full Drake Maye experience on Amazon’s Thursday Night Football, New England survived the trap game and won handily 27-14.

The New England Patriots’ continued to find a way to win in week eleven, despite losing star defensive tackle Milton Williams to a high ankle sprain that led to him being placed on injured reserve. At 9-2, New England remains 1.5 games ahead of the 7-3 Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.

With a huge match-up with Buffalo still looming after the bye week in December, New England needs to maintain focus on the next two games heading into the bye: a trip to Cincinnati (and maybe Joe Burrow?) this Sunday and then a Monday night match-up with the New York Giants.

New England currently has a top ten offense and defense, ranking seventh in points scored and ninth in total yards on offense. On defense, the Patriots’ unit is fifth in points allowed and eighth in total yards allowed.

Yes, the Patriots have clearly taken advantage of a last-place schedule, an influx of talent in free agency, improvements via the NFL Draft, and quarterback Drake Maye’s second-year leap under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. However, last year they were 30th in points scored and 31st in total yards on offense and 22nd in both points and yards allowed on defense.

With these increased expectations now that they are on top of the AFC East and in the race for the number one seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs, the Patriots come off this mini-break with a matchup in Cincinnati against one of the “Joe’s” at quarterback and the resurgent Bengals offense and porous defense.

Last Week:

The New England Patriots took care of business on Thursday night, but again the defense had a slow start to the game. On the initial drive, the Jets drove 72 yards on a whopping 14 plays eating 7:40 of game clock with five rushes by Jets’ quarterback Justin Fields and just two pass attempts by Fields (three total attempts, if you count the trickery with wide receiver Isaiah Williams adding an incompletion).

The Jets mixed in rushes by Breece Hall and Isaiah Davis before Fields scooted around the right end for a touchdown and a 7-0 Jets lead. Surprisingly, the Jets were able to complete all four third-downs on the drive as the New England defense seemed unprepared for Fields’ running ability.

New England answered with a 13 play drive for 69 yards and ended up in the end zone in the beginning of the second quarter. Maye completed all six of his passes on the drive and TreVeyon Henderson rushed the ball seven times including a seven-yard touchdown rumble to tie the game at seven.

The Patriots stopped the Jets on their next drive forcing a punt after a three and out and then Maye continued his prime-time mastery. Maye completed all four of his passes on the drive including 19 and 20 yard passes on consecutive plays to Mack Hollins to set up another seven yard run for Henderson to give New England a lead they would not relinquish.

The Jets went three-and-out on their next two drives but did force a punt as Maye threw incomplete on third down after running his consecutive completions to eleven straight. New England took over with less than two minutes remaining in the half and drove down the field to kick a 45-yard field goal but rookie Andres Borregales missed, they took a 14-7 lead into the break.

In the second half, the Patriots were a little sloppy on both sides of the ball, but with Maye hitting passes of 17 yards to Mack Hollins and 21 and 18 yard gains to Stefon Diggs, New England went up 21-7.

The Jets drove down the field to cut it to 21-14 but Maye responded with a drive that stalled at the beginning of the fourth quarter when the Jets finally got to Maye for a sack. However, Borregales nailed the 44-yard field goal to give New England the 24-14 lead.

After trading punts, the Jets coughed it up as Fields fumbled the snap giving New England a short field. The offense was still out of sync and settled for a short field goal to make it 27-14. The Jets tried to mount a drive and after converting two third downs, the Jets faltered in the red zone and failed to convert on fourth down. Henderson converted a third down and the Patriots ran down the clock to finish the Jets off.

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

After being spoiled by having CBS’ top team of Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on CBS against the Buccaneers and then Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit on Amazon, the Patriots don’t have the A-team, but they have the very solid B-team on CBS/Paramount Plus.

This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4 in the greater Boston area and WPRI Channel 12 in the greater Providence area. The ever affable Kevin Harlan will handle play-by-play duties with former Rams quarterback Trent Green as the color analyst. Melanie Collins will provide updates from the sidelines.

This week’s game will be broadcast to a national audience by Sports USA. Larry Kahn will call the game with Marvin Lewis providing analysis.

The Sports Hub pregame show kicks-off at 8am with the always informative Alex Barth and Cerrone Battle. At 10am, the Patriots Pregame show begins featuring Marc “the Beetle” Bertrand (ignore his blathering) and Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper (he’s informative and intelligent) leading up to handing it off to Socci and Zo.

Key Stats:

The Patriots are now 4-2 at Gillette Stadium and 5-0 on the road in 2025 as they’re on to Cincinnati to try to extend their road winning streak. The current eight-game winning streak in 2025 is the longest streak since some guy named Tom Brady was under center.

New England’s offense is averaging 26.5 points per game after the win over the Jets bumping back up to seventh in the league in points scored, After racking up 336 yards against the Jets’ defense, New England jumped from 11th in total yards ninth with 3,927 total yards(all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted).

For the second consecutive game, Drake Maye was only sacked one time. Maye, after completion percentage leader Sam Darnold had a horrible game against the Rams’ strong defense, is back on top of the league with a 71.9% completion rate and now has 20 touchdowns passing to just five interceptions. He also is first in the league now with 2,836 yards and Adjusted Yards per Attempt (factoring in touchdown passes and interceptions).

New England, while seventh in passing yards, is 27th in the league in pass attempts, showing Josh McDaniels’ commitment to the running game to set up play action and the extraordinary efficiency and big play capability in the passing game.

They are sixth in the league with 20 passing touchdowns and ninth fewest interceptions thrown with just five through eleven games. Maye is second in the league with his 113.2 quarterback rating while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and 12.3 yards per completion which are both second overall in the league behind Darnold.

However, despite a resurgence in the passing game, New England have allowed Maye to be sacked 36 times and are still struggling to run the ball consistently. They are 20th in rushing yards with just 1,242 yards on the ground after rushing for just 65 yards last week despite 27 attempts (counting kneeldowns).

On defense, the emphasis by head coach Mike Vrabel and interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr (Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams has been on medical leave much of training camp and the season) on controlling the opponent’s running game has been phenomenal. The Jets came in with a top-five rushing offense and running back Breece Hall had just 58 yards on 14 attempts.

The team defense is fifth in the NFL in points allowed and eighth in total yards allowed. The Patriots have allowed the fewest rushing yards through eleven weeks (932 yards) and the fewest attempts (238), fewest rushing touchdowns (4), and the fifth fewest yards per attempt at 3.9 yards per rush allowed against New England this season.

The passing defense--which struggled during the 1-2 stretch to open the season before Christian Gonzalez got healthy and returned to the lineup--has improved dramatically since their number one cornerback got on the field. The Jets are horrible in passing, so not a real test, but Fields had just 116 yards through the air--with 41 of those yards coming in garbage time on their final drive of the game.

The New England pass defense was 26th in passing yards allowed heading into week five. After eleven weeks, they’ve improved to 17th in passing yards allowed. They’ve cut down somewhat on the big chunk plays allowed and are 20th in net yards allowed per attempt (after being as bad as 29th earlier in the season).

NE Offense vs CIN Defense:

The Patriots are facing a Cincinnati Bengals team also coming off a crushing defeat against Pittsburgh for their third straight defeat. Cincinnati basically had to run the table after their bye week in order to get into the playoff race, but at 3-7 and games at Baltimore and Buffalo after this Sunday, things are not looking good for Cincinnati staying in contention while Joe Burrow is out injured and now Ja’marr Chase is suspended.

For the offense, anything less than four or five touchdowns this week is a massive failure. This Cincinnati defense is historically bad. With former defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo turning around the Indianapolis defense and vaulting them into first place in the AFC South, the Bengals look foolish for firing him instead of placing the blame for drafting bad players on defense on the front office.

Trey Hendrickson is a premier pass rusher, B.J. Hill is a serviceable defensive tackle and breakout star cornerback DJ Turner could be the only other player out on the field that could start for the other 31 NFL teams. The rest of the defense is mostly high draft picks who they whiffed on completely.

Somehow, the Bengals have allowed the most points, the most yards, the most first downs, the second-most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns and the most rushing yards so far in 2025. Other than week one against the Browns, the Bengals haven’t held an opponent under 27 points this season.

Futility at that level is almost impossible.

The New England offense is now sixth in the league on third down conversion percentage (42.7%) and are excellent on fourth down (13 of 16 conversions for an 81.3%) ranking number one in the league in fourth down conversion percentage. The aggressive approach from Mike Vrabel and trust in the offense to convert on fourth down is a breath of fresh air in Foxboro.

The Red Zone should continue to be a point of emphasis for the offense. New England is middle of the pack ranking 17th in Red Zone TD percentage (down from 14th a few weeks ago) with just 23 of 40 trips resulting in touchdowns (57.5%). I vote for more Khyris Tonga at fullback in the Red Zone.

New York’s defense is 11th in the NFL on third down percentage, allowing just a 34.2% conversion rate (40 of 117). On fourth down, they’ve allowed seven of ten conversions. In the Red Zone, the defense has held strong in 2025 allowing touchdowns on just 18 of 31 trips ranking 13th in the league.

While nothing seems to work for the Bengals’ defense, they do not like to blitz and are dead last in the NFL (15.8%) in blitz rate (per Sharp Football Analysis). Likely, that is due to not trusting the lousy defense. They are middle of the pack as far as man/zone coverages, as neither seems too well for them.

Pass Offense:

The Bengals’ pass rush comes from Hendrickson. That’s about it. Seriously. They are third-from-last in pressure rate (29.9%). Hendrickson has fought injuries and has four sacks in seven games. The rest of the defense has ten total sacks for the season.

Joseph Ossai was re-signed this offseason and is second in sacks with three. First round draft pick in 2023 Myles Murphy has 2.5 and veteran tackle B.J. Hill has two. They struggle to generate pressure without blitzing, and outside of DJ Turner at cornerback the secondary has been terrible so the Bengals can’t trust matching up one-on-one.

Tackling has been a huge issue in Cincinnati on defense, as no one has been able to bring opponents down. Instead of bringing in their younger players and emptying the practice squad to see what some of these players can do on Sunday, the Bengals keep interesting college producers Howard Cross, Barlyn Lux, Brian Asamoah, Cedric Johnson and Josh Newton buried on the practice squad or on the bench.

First round draft pick last year and edge rusher Shemar Stewart is on injured reserve, but the rest of the defense is healthy. The secondary is littered with top-100 draft picks (safety Jordan Battle - 3rd round 2023; cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt - 2nd round 2022; nickelback Dax Hill - 1st round 2022; and DJ Turner (their only good cover corner) - 2nd round 2023).

They’ve got high picks up front with Murphy (2023 1st round) and Ossai (2021 3rd round) and they have McKinnley Jackson (3rd round 2023) and Kris Jenkins (2nd round 2024) sitting on the bench at defensive tackle behind free agent pick ups Hill and T.J. Slaton.

It’s not working on defense in Cincinnati, but the changes aren’t coming for some bizarre reason. At least one change is likely, as starting cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt injured his foot and may require surgery and is not expected to play on Sunday and it is likely he is done for the season (or done forever in Cincinnati!).

The New England offensive line gave up some pressure but only one sack again last week as after some porous performances they have tightened up considerably. The Jets had some excellent edge rushers and the Patriots stood up to the challenge for the most part.

Again, like against Tampa the week before, Drake Maye showed he is able to learn and grow during the season as a quarterback, which is so much fun to recognize and see the progression. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ message got through to Maye to throw the ball away and not take the sack instead of trying to extend every play and risk losing yardage (and the dreaded sack and fumble).

Tackles Morgan Moses and rookie Will Campbell have been solid in pass protection the past two weeks and both will likely see Hendrickson (who is on the injury report with a sports hernia and is doubtful to play after missing the game last week versus the Steelers). Murphy and Ossai are only on the field because they lack better options as both are disappointments who have not lived up to their draft status. Cedric Johsnon, in very limited snaps this season, has been one of the few sure tacklers and competent defenders.

Hill can be a handful for the interior linemen, but fellow defensive tackle T.J. Slaton and linebackers Oren Burks and rookies Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight get swept up on passing downs and stonewalled at the line of scrimmage as opposing offensive lines overwhelm them.

The New England wide receivers and tight ends (Austin Hooper is off the injury report after missing the Jets game) will be looking for the ball anytime other than DJ Turner is in coverage. Last week, Pittsburgh--with a declining Aaron Rodgers and benchwarmer Mason Rudolph--carved up the secondary completing 21 of 31 passes for 243 yards and 13 first downs through the air and two touchdowns.

👉What should a quarterback like Drake Maye--light years ahead of that Pittsburgh duo--do against this secondary?👈

Stefon Diggs continued his strong play last week as he again topped 100 yards receiving hauling in five targets for 105 yards on a windy Thursday night. Mack Hollins again stepped up in the absence of Kayshon Boutte (who is trending towards returning from his hamstring injury on Sunday) and tight end Hunter Henry and slot receiver Demario Douglas made the most of their opportunities in the passing game.

The Steelers running backs last week combined for nine receptions for 86 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals. That portends well for TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson in the passing game.

Tight ends Pat Friermuth and Darnell Washington also had a combined five receptions for 86 yards as the Bengals focused on trying to contain D.K. Metcalf. The other wide receivers for Pittsburgh are subpar and Rodgers is hesitant to throw the ball downfield, or else they may have made more of their opportunities.

Five teams have already topped 400 total yards of offense in a game versus the Bengals in 2025, with three surpassing 500 yards. The Bengals haven’t created a turnover in three games although they have eight interceptions as a team, although two of them came in week one against their current quarterback when he was a Cleveland Brown.

DJ Turner pitched a shutout last week for Cincinnati, as he allowed no completions on three targets. In other words, the rest of the defense combined to allow 21 of 28 completions to a pair of mediocre quarterbacks.

The Patriots catch a huge break getting the Bengals defense with Hendrickson out or extremely limited if he plays at all. Anything less than 250 passing yards and 35 or more points by the New England offense would be considered a disappointment.

Run Offense:

Although rookie TreVeyon Henderson had a pair of touchdown runs, as a team they gained 65 yards on 27 carries (25 rushes for 68 yards not counting the pair of kneeldowns at the end of the game), which is less than three yards per rush. The Jets defense had struggled against the run most of the season, making this inconsistency more troubling.

Fortunately, the Bengals are just terrible against the run. Missed tackles are everywhere on their game film. Hop on a Bengals thread on Twitter (I refuse to call it “X”) and the poor fans are apoplectic about the missed tackles.

Per the Dayton Daily News: 👇

“Cincinnati had 16 missed tackles Sunday and is up to 109 missed tackles this season — 28 more than any other team"

For New England, with such a poor tackling opponent, there should be the opportunity for another TreVeyon Henderson lightning strike touchdown run. Add in Rhamondre Stevenson returning from injury with his hard running style running into a defense that does not tackle well (again, 16 missed tackles last week!) and

CIN Offense vs NE Defense

One week after the Jets’ offense was without standout wide receiver Garrett Wilson on Thursday night after he reinjured his knee, The Patriots get another break with the schedule with Ja’Marr Chase suspended for the game for what turned out to be a half-million dollar loogey.

If they are really lucky, the Bengals will hold out Joe Burrow until Thanksgiving and play Joe Flacco at quarterback this weekend. However, Flacco has been nursing a shoulder injury for the past few weeks and Burrow has been a full participant at practices during the week which portends for him being activated from injured reserve and facing New England on Sunday as the Bengals are at their most desperate with any loss the rest of the way effectively eliminating them from the playoff picture.

The Bengals’ offense has been the best part of their season, and it has been inconsistent and often stuck in neutral. With Burrow out after just two games (both wins), the team turned to back-up Jake Browning. Although he had weathered the Burrow injury in the past with success, he was terrible throwing eight interceptions in three losses and just 37 points scored total in those games.

To try and turn things around, the Bengals pulled the trigger on an inter-divisional trade getting Joe Flacco from Cleveland. Flacco has fought injuries but still marched out there for five straight starts at age 40. He has stabilized the quarterback position averaging 290 yards passing and throwing a dozen touchdowns with just three interceptions.

One thing Cincinnati has done well on offense is convert on third down. They are tenth in the NFL converting 41.1% of their third downs (51 of 124) and are fifth on fourth down converting five of seven attempts this year.

After a rough week eleven, the Patriots are down to 11th in third down defense as they struggled to get the Jets off the field at times. They have allowed opponents to convert 45 of 122 third downs (36.9%) but remain strong on fourth down, allowing just five conversions on a whopping 16 attempts (31.3%).

The struggle on defense in New England has been the Red Zone. Opponents have 18 touchdowns on 25 trips for a 72% conversion rate. The Patriots have to tighten up inside the twenty. While they have done well to prevent opponents from reaching the Red Zone, they must perform better going forward.

New England will need to follow their game plan for all season to stuff the running game early, which they struggled to do against the Jets last week, and force Flacco to try to test Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis with wide receivers Tre Higgins, Andrei Iosivas and preseason star/regular season special teamer Mitchell Tinsley.

Tinsley is easy to root for. He was unranked out of high school and spent two years at a community college before he starred at Western Kentucky catching passes from Bailey Zappe. He transferred to Penn State and went undrafted and signed in Washington, playing two games in 2023 and spending all of 2024 on their practice squad. He was signed this offseason by the Bengals and broke out during the Monday Night preseason game versus the Commanders with five catches for 73 yards in the first half and has been on the active roster as their fourth receiver.

Tinsley is likely to get a chunk of playing time against the Patriots with Chase suspended. He’s only had three receptions for 49 yards while playing just 89 snaps. However, he made the roster due to his size (six-foot-one and 205 lbs.) and athleticism and ability to make difficult catches throughout training camp and the preseason.

Tee Higgins obviously gets the spotlight for the Bengals and Andrei Iosivas will be important as well. However, Cincinnati plays a whopping 75.3% of their offensive snaps with three wide receivers so while Higgins and Iosivas rarely leave the field, that leaves Tinsley next in line to basically be a starter on offense.

The big question is Joe Burrow. If he plays, he elevates the entire team and gives them a lift on both sides of the ball and belief they outscore anyone.

Pass Defense:

The Patriots have improved their pass defense throughout the season after getting lit up by Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa for a combined 630 yards through the air in the first two weeks of the season. While that seems like a million years ago, let’s remember that this unit has not exactly been facing MVP candidates each week.

Yes, they played very well on a cold night in Foxboro against the MVP himself, Josh Allen, on the first Sunday of October and the real turning point of the season. Since that game, only Baker Mayfield has topped 250 total yards passing. However, the decrepit corpse of Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Michael Penix and Justin Fields are about what you’d get if you were trying to round up some of the worst quarterbacks in the league.

No matter about the past, this week the competition is stepping up. While not facing Ja’Marr Chase is another lucky bounce in a season full of them for the Patriots, having to potentially face Joe Burrow is one of their first bad bounces. Even if the Burrow practice displays are just mind games from Zac Taylor as he suddenly has a tenuous hold on his job as head coach, Joe Flacco is a step up from most of the quarterbacks faced so far in 2025.

One point that has been made this week in all the media outlets is that Cincinnati remains very effective on offense without Chase in the lineup. Mainly, that is due to Tee Higgins. Higgins is really a number one wide receiver on a team with two young number ones. New England fans had high hopes Higgins would test free agency and look for a landing spot where he could be the clear cut number one, but he passed up the opportunity to stay in Cincinnati.

Without Chase, it is still a challenging match-up for cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones this week. One thing that New England did so well with Bill Belichick was design defense where his top man-press cornerback could follow an opponent’s top receiver anywhere on the field.

What gets overlooked is that very few teams can do that, because it requires the rest of the defense to basically be playing an entirely different defensive match-up. Fans have lamented that Gonzalez has not been following the opponent’s top wideout, but that disrupts the rest of the secondary’s coverage. It is not easy and it is why unless your defensive system has been in place with the same players running it for years, it is difficult to pull off.

Teams have run bunch formations and attempted to isolate Gonzalez on a tight end in three-by-one formations this year to keep him away from their top wide receiver. Last week, the Jets did that to get AD Mitchell and John Metchie away from matchups with Gonzalez, just as Atlanta and Tampa Bay had done to get more favorable matchups for Drake London and Emeka Ebuka.

Throw out just about anything from last Thursday in the passing game. The Jets were running a high school offense. Even without Chase, this is a very difficult series of match-ups for New England.

One thing about the Bengals receivers is that they all have size. Marcus Jones is in for a tough game no matter who he draws. Cincinnati has Higgins (six-foot-four), Iosivas (six-foot-four), and Tinsley (six-foot-one but uber athletic) at the wide receiver positions and with Noah Fant (six-foot-four) and possibly old friend Mike Gesicki (six-foot-six) back, the Bengals have the height advantage across the board.

The New England pass rush will have extra pressure on them to step up as the secondary needs to limit the time in coverage with the matchup issues.

The big issue is that interior pass rusher Milton Williams is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and out the next four games. While Christian Barmore should be a disruptive force, he loses his running mate and what made them a dynamic duo rushing from the interior.

Fourth-round draft pick Joshua Farmer and unexpected contributor Cory Durden will have a little extra on their plate this week and for the next month as they will be counted on to take Williams’ snaps. On the edge, Harold Landry--who has seen his pressure rate drop since tweaking his knee a few weeks back--needs to get back to getting to the quarterback.

He and K’Lavon Chaisson, who looked impressive early in the season, have both seemingly hit a wall. Whether fifth-round draft pick Bradyn Swinson or undrafted rookie Elijah Ponder gets some playing time on the edge to try and generate pressure, it will be necessary regardless of whether it is the veteran Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow.

The numbers don’t tell much with Cincinnati as they are without Ja’Marr Chase and the offense was non-functional when Jake Browning was under center for three games. Flacco or Burrow under center, it is a dangerous unit. One thing that stands out is that they are excellent on third down (tenth in the NFL with a 41.1% conversion rate) and they don’t waste much time running the ball as they’re second in the league in pass attempts.

What is clear watching the Bengals in 2025 is that for the first time in a long time the offensive line is not the root of their problems. While hardly a top-ten unit, the group is respectable and not the porous sieve that so many other Cincinnati blocking units were in the past.

The Bengals have solidified the tackles with big Orlando Brown Jr. (son of Zeus!) and 2024 first round pick Amarius Mims. Mims is a bit of a work in progress and can be inconsistent and have bad plays, bad drives and bad games, but overall is a future staple on the right side. He is big and strong and a mauler who can be susceptible to a speed rush.

Brown was very good last year but has struggled this year. Even at his best in Baltimore and Kansas City, Brown never unlocked his full potential. He’s seemingly regressing in 2025 the Bengals may be forced to flip tackles next season and try Mims on the left side to protect Burrow’s blind side.

Old friend Ted Karras mans the center position. While undersized and lacking athleticism, Karras is one of the smartest and toughest players in the league and makes up in brains what he lacks in brawn. His veteran leadership is a big reason for the offensive line playing well.

At guard, the Bengals have been going with two rookies with third round draft pick Dylan Fairchild on the left side and fifth round draft pick Jalen Rivers holding off veteran Dalton Risner after Risner flunked his early season audition at right guard. While Fairchild and Rivers have been surprisingly solid, Rivers had an ankle injury last week against Pittsburgh and the line play declined with Risner stepping in.

Regardless of which Joe is at quarterback, the Cincinnati passing offense is a tough test for the pass defense. Another factor that could help New England is that the Bengals don’t do much to disguise or motion on offense. What you see is what you get.

Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Bengals are in the bottom ten in Motion Rate and second-to-last in play action rate with only the Falcons running less. They are third in the NFL in shotgun rate, lining up in shotgun over 84% percent of their snaps. And as far as the hurry-up offense, it is nearly non-existent. They run it just 3.7% of the snaps, the fourth lowest in the NFL.

Run Defense:

The New England run defense has declined slightly from its hot start, but this week is kind of irrelevant. As a Chase Brown fantasy league owner, his inconsistent usage has basically torpedoed my season. Now I know no one cares about someone else’s fantasy team roster, but the point being made is that Brown was a big part of the success in 2024 but has been handcuffed by the Bengals abandoning the run early and often.

Brown is a decent back and can catch the ball out of the backfield. He had a rough start to 2025 being bottled up in week one by the Browns. He has only hit 50 yards rushing in a game against Pittsburgh and the Jets and has just two rushing touchdowns for the entire season.

Samaje Perine is the backup and a capable runner, receiver and blocker--although he has lost a step over the years. He makes up for it now with his veteran experience and is excellent at converting third downs through the air and on draw plays.

New England had some leakage in the run defense the past two weeks, although Tampa caught them a couple times with extra defensive backs on the field and the Jets success was for the most part with quarterback option runs.

The Jets became the fourth team to top 75 yards rushing so far in 2025 against New England joining Carolina (129 yards), Buffalo (118 yards) and Tampa (113 yards) topping 100 yards on the ground. The Jets piled up a season-high 140 yards rushing allowed--which looks bad until you realize they had just 105 yards passing and New England won handily.

The Bengals have rushed for 100 or more yards in a game just three times all season. After not cracking 85 yards in a game in any of the first six weeks of the season, they broke through twice against the Steelers’ declining defense and against the Jets’ inconsistent run defense.

For the Patriots, Milton Williams being out obviously impacts the run defense as he has made some big plays penetrating in the backfield so far in 2025. Christian Barmore will have to pick up the slack there as well as in the pass rush.

Nose tackle Khyris Tonga continues to be a consistent force while filling the middle of the defense and giving opposing teams no space to run. New England needs to get a contract offer ready for the big Samoan run stuffer as he is playing on a one-year $2.1 million contract that he has outplayed.

Linebackers Robert Spillane, Jack Gibbens and now Jahlani Tavai (taking over for an injured Christian Ellis) have taken advantage of their opportunities cleaning up running backs behind or near the line of scrimmage for the most part this season. There were tackling issues earlier in the season that they’ve cleaned up for the most part.

Safety Jaylinn Hawkins has been a major contributor in the run defense coming up from the safety position and his hard hits often set the tone on defense. Rookie Craig Woodson and the cornerbacks have been willing tacklers in the run defense as well and all eleven pulling together is a big reason for their success in 2025.

For New England, the game plan revolves around the passing attack, not the running game. No doubt, they would be ecstatic to see Cincinnati go against form and spend much of their time trying to get the 30th ranked rushing attack in gear. So far in 2025, the Bengals are 30th in rushing yards, dead last in rushing attempts and 26th in rushing touchdowns.

Other Factors:

The Bengals have the most underused punt returner in the league, as no defense forces fewer punts. We’ve reached week 12 and Cincinnati has just nine punt returns total for the entire season. Charlie Jones has all nine and has been about average.

That said, their kick returners are exhausted, as they’ve been overworked from opponents scoring on their defense. Jones does have a 98 yard touchdown return and Samaje Perine also is often back to return kicks. On occasion, rookie Tahj Brooks may be back deep to return a kickoff.

The Patriots coverage units have been solid if not spectacular. They gave up a punt return touchdown to the Dolphins in week two with Malik Washington returning the punt 74 yards.

👀Are the Patriots good or bad on return coverage?👀

You’d never know with the Boston media coverage focused entirely on stupid crap like what Cam Newton said about the Patriots on some ESPN talking heads show.

I had to turn to my friends at The Football Database to get my hands on some special teams stats to validate what I’ve seen with my eyes this season. New England is seventh in the NFL in kick return coverage, allowing just 24.09 yards average and a long of just 34 yards on kick returns.

Punt coverage is where the worries are for the Patriots’ special teams. They have improved in the past few weeks as I started digging into the punt coverage and paying more attention. They are no longer the worst but just the ninth worst punt coverage unit allowing 13.29 yards per return.

In the kicking game, New England Patriots rookie sixth-round draft pick kicker Andy Borregales has continued to improve each week after a shaky start to his career in New England. The rookie is kicking with confidence and has been steady with extra points, field goals and kickoffs.

Punter Bryce Baringer remains solid despite the occasional side-of-foot short wobbler. More consistency, more hang time, and less returns are needed from Baringer. He does have 12 punts that resulted in a fair catch, which out of 29 punts is a decent average.

Who can tell unless he airmails or dirt-hops a snap, but the rookie long snapper, Julian Ashby, has been fine as far as I’ve seen so far.

Efton Chism has been on the active roster to return kicks and has been…just okay. The Patriots are middle of the pack average on returns averaging 25.26 yards per return per The Football Database.

New England is sixth in the NFL in punt returns at 15.6 yards per return. Marcus Jones remains a threat to return a punt to the house anytime and has had very limited opportunities in November as teams just refuse to give him a chance to return a punt.

Game Pick:

The Patriots have been churning through bad teams all season and racking up victories. Other than the Bills in week five and two weeks ago against Tampa, they’ve played the schedule they earned as one of the worst teams over 2023 and 2024.

I was pretty close on my score prediction last week (27-11 and it was 27-14) as I had the Patriots winning, covering the spread and hitting the under (barely).

The Patriots have some uncertainty as to who is lining up in the shotgun behind old friend Ted Karras on Sunday. I fully expect the Bengals to rush back Burrow this week. If he can walk and throw on the toe, they are at the point of their season where at 3-7 one more loss ends their playoff chances, which are slim to begin with right now.

I am leaning into the Patriots covering the spread and the team’s hitting the over on the under/over this week. The Bengals’ passing attack, even without Ja’Marr Chase and even if for some reason it is Flacco at quarterback, is still going to make plays and put some points on the board. The receivers and tight ends are tough to cover with their decided size advantage.

That said, the defense is trash. Joe Burrow is not going to play defense. Yes, he should give the entire team a boost, but that won’t help them tackle better. Add in a secondary where only one player is playing well and they are down a starter at cornerback, missing their top pass rushers, and the linebackers have struggled with missed tackles and I am wondering why I don’t have the Patriots topping 50 points scored.

The Joe Burrow fever is driving bets on the Bengals--the spread is down to 7 points after being at 8.5 just 48 hours ago. The over/under hopped up a full point and the moneyline is going to Cincinnati. That's fine with me, as I still have New England winning by two touchdowns. Vegas must be loving all these "Burrow is Back, Baby!" bets coming out of Ohio!

PATRIOTS 38 @ BENGALS 24

Spread: Patriots -7: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -340, Bengals +270: Patriots

Over/Under: 51.5: Over

Bonus Patriots 4 Leg Parlay Pick of the Week:

Patriots -7
Over 51.5
TreVeyon Henderson Rushing Yards 40+
Drake Maye Passing Yards 250+

DraftKings +525 - $10 bet = $62.50 total payout

NFL Week 12 2025 - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

2025-11-22T07:12:00.003-05:00

Week eleven of the 2025 NFL season is in the books and we’re on to week 12.

The Patriots kicked off the week with a 27-14 win over the Jets to go to 9-2. Meanwhile, Buffalo and Miami both won with the Dolphins going to Spain to beat the Commanders and the Bills adding to the AFC East dominance of the NFC South as they outscored Tampa Bay in a wild, high-scoring match-up.

The Chargers got destroyed by Jacksonville and the surprising Bears outlasted McCarthy Magic and defeated the spiralling Vikings. The Packers held off Jameis Winston and the pesky Giants. The Texans’ defense won them a nail-biter against the Titans while the Steelers crushed the Bengals as loogey’s flew and a suspension followed for Ja’Marr Chase.

In the late window the big games featured the Broncos’ dynamic defense knocking off Patrick Mahomes and the Rams edging out the Seahawks by harassing and pressuring Sam Darnold. The 49ers blasted Arizona and Baltimore looked rusty but had enough to get past Cleveland.

On Sunday night, the Lions ran into a brick wall called the Eagles’ defense as the champs took out high powered Lions 16-9. The week ended with the Cowboys in an emotional Monday night game knocking off the spiralling Raiders.

What a week that was! Now onto this week to see if we can top the entertainment level in week 12.

Thursday night kicks off this week with the AFC East defending division champs needing a win as the Buffalo Bills take their red hot offense into Houston to test their mettle against the number one defense in the NFL.

The 1:00PM games kick off with the Bears welcoming Aaron Rodgers and his fractured left hand while the Patriots face-off against the Ja’Marr Chase-less Bengals, who may get quarterback Joe Burrow back ahead of schedule. The Lions get a much needed “get right game” against the Giants while the Packers try to defend Lambeau against the desperate Vikings.

The Seahawks travel to Tennessee which leaves the 12s to plan a Sunday Brunch to watch their beloved Seahawks. I’m up for a Sunday breakfast at McCoy’s Firehouse in Pioneer Square if anyone wants to buy me a plane ticket to my beloved Pacific Northwest. Finally, the Jets made a quarterback change and are headed to Baltimore to test the Ravens.

In the late window, the big game of the four is the NFC East battle between the wildly different Eagles and Cowboys. Dallas is unstoppable on offense while the Eagles’ defense has been shifting to a higher gear. The Falcons and Saints battle for a top-five draft pick and the Raiders and Browns fight for the number two pick. Finally, the Jaguars need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and travel to the desert to face the reeling Cardinals.

Sunday Night Football features the Rams hosting the Buccaneers, who are starting to get desperate for a win. The week wraps up with the Christian McCaffery Bowl as the 49ers host the Carolina Panthers.

Each week during the season, I make my picks with my buddy David on his SportsKrunch with DKrom podcast as we’ve done regularly for the past five years (and pre-pandemic as well).

Check out the episode as we recapped week eleven, judged which NFL teams are hitting the panic button, sorted through all the news, and of course all the predictions and prognostications--it is available here.

Please give a listen each week on your preferred podcast provider. All back episodes are available here at Apple podcasts.

Last Week: Straight up: 9-6; Against the Spread:6-9

Season Totals: Straight up: 191-62-1; Against the Spread: 74-90

Lock of the Week: 7-4

Upset Special: 4-7

Now, on to the week twelve picks!

2025 NFL Week 12 Picks

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

BILLS 12 @ TEXANS 14

Spread: Bills -6: Texans

Moneyline: Bills -290, Texans +235: Texans

(edit: I predicted no touchdowns for Josh Allen--I’m off to a great start this week!)

SUNDAY 1:00PM

GIANTS 24 @ LIONS 38

Spread: Lions -10: Lions

Moneyline: Lions -520, Giants +390: Lions

SEAHAWKS 21 @ TITANS 13

Spread: Seahawks -13.5: Titans

Moneyline: Seahawks -850, Titans +575: Seahawks

PATRIOTS 38 @ BENGALS 24

Spread: Patriots -8.5: Patriots

Moneyline: Patriots -395, Bengals +310: Patriots

JETS 12 @ RAVENS 34 💪💪💪(LOCK OF THE WEEK)💪💪💪

Spread: Ravens -13.5: Ravens

Moneyline: Ravens -900, Jets +600: Ravens

COLTS 24 @ CHIEFS 20 👉👉👉(UPSET SPECIAL)👈👈👈

Spread: Chiefs -3.5: Colts

Moneyline: Chiefs -185, Colts +154: Colts

VIKINGS 22 @ PACKERS 24

Spread: Packers -6.5: Vikings

Moneyline: Packers -325, Vikings +260: Packers

STEELERS 14 @ BEARS 27

Spread: Bears -3: Bears

Moneyline: Bears -155, Steelers +130: Bears

4:05/4:25PM:

JAGUARS 22 @ CARDINALS 24

Spread: Jaguars -3: Cardinals

Moneyline: Jaguars -148, Cardinals +124: Cardinals

BROWNS 14 @ RAIDERS 13

Spread: Raiders -3: Browns

Moneyline: Raiders -175, Browns +145: Browns

EAGLES 22 @ COWBOYS 24

Spread: Eagles -3: Cowboys

Moneyline: Eagles -175, Cowboys +145: Cowboys

FALCONS 27 @ SAINTS 24

Spread: Saints -1.5: Falcons

Moneyline: Falcons +105, Saints -125: Falcons

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

BUCCANEERS 24 @ RAMS 34

Spread: Rams -6.5: Rams

Moneyline: Rams -325, Buccaneers +260: Rams

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

PANTHERS 19 @ 49ERS 33

Spread: 49ers -7: 49ers

Moneyline: 49ers -340, Panthers +270: 49ers

BostonSportPage.Com

NFL Game Picks - 2026 Week 1

W2W4 New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks - NFL 2026 Week 1

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

Key Stats:

New England Patriots

Seattle Seahawks

NE Offense vs SEA Defense

Pass Offense:

Key Match-up: A.J Brown vs Devon Witherspoon

Run Offense:

Key Match-up: Jared Wilson vs Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy

NE Defense vs SEA Offense:

Pass Defense:

Key Match-up: CB Christian Gonzalez vs WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Run Defense:

Key Match-up: NT Cory Durden vs C Jalen Sundel

Other Factors:

Game Pick:

PATRIOTS 22 vs SEAHAWKS 24

New England Patriots 2026 Mock Draft 2.0

2025 Draft Recap:

Mock Draft 2.0:

Round One (#31 overall): TRADE UP

Round One (#27 overall):

Round Three (#95 overall): TRADE UP

Round Three (#84 overall):

Round Six (#191 overall): TRADED

Round Six (#212 overall): TRADED

RESULTS/FINAL THOUGHTS:

New England Patriots 2026 Mock Draft 1.0

2025 Draft Recap:

Team Needs:

High Priority:

Medium Priority:

Mock Draft 1.0:

Round One (#31 overall):

Round Two (#53 overall):

Round Four (#125 overall):

Round Five (#171 overall):

Round Five (#174 overall):

Round Six (#198 overall):

Round Six (#212 overall):

RESULTS/FINAL THOUGHTS:

Super Bowl 60 - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

Picks Recap:

PLAYOFFS AND REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

2025 NFL Super Bowl Pick:

PATRIOTS 27 vs SEAHAWKS 24

Spread: Seahawks -4.5: PatriotsMoneyline: Seahawks -230, Patriots +190: PatriotsO/U: 45.5: Over

W2W4: New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks - Super Bowl 60

Last Game:

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

Key Stats:

New England Patriots

Seattle Seahawks

NE Offense vs SEA Defense

Pass Offense:

Key Match-up: Stefon Diggs vs Devon Witherspoon & Nick Emmanwori

Run Offense:

Key Match-up: Mike Onwenu vs Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy

NE Defense vs SEA Offense:

Pass Defense:

Key Match-up: DTs Christian Barmore and Milton Williams vs Gs Grey Zabel and Anthony Bradford

Run Defense:

Key Match-up: NT Khyiris Tonga vs C Jalen Sundel

Other Factors:

Game Pick:

PATRIOTS 27 vs SEAHAWKS 24

NFL Conference Playoff Weekend - Weekly Picks Against the Spread and Straight up

PLAYOFFS AND REGULAR SEASON RECORD:

2025 NFL Divisional Round Week Picks

AFC Championship Game Pick

NFC Championship Game Pick

W2W4: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - AFC Championship Game

Last Week:

How to Watch/Listen to the Game:

Key Stats:

New England Patriots

Denver Broncos

Spread: Seahawks -4.5: Patriots
Moneyline: Seahawks -230, Patriots +190: Patriots
O/U: 45.5: Over