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Summer And NFL Football

2010-06-15T13:51:00.004-04:00

Workouts and mini camps, off-season football is out and pre-season football is in. The summer promises to provide fantasy owners with plenty of exciting developments and player news leading up to fantasy drafts. However, sometimes we have to differentiate between the NFL fan and the fantasy owner inside each of us. READ MORE

Chicago's Backfield

What is the value of this former top-five fantasy pick for 2010? I don’t know. RB Matt Forte’s value is in flux and it’s going to stay that way for the foreseeable future. There are tons of question marks surrounding the Bears’ offense and Forte has even more questions to answer individually.

There is too much uncertainty for me to monitor this battle in hopes of landing Forte or Chester this season. I’ll probably be on the sidelines when Forte and Chester are called on fantasy draft day 2010, but that doesn’t mean I won’t be interested as a NFL fan. This battle isn’t about a mere split in carries, it’s about how the running back will be used in the offense and how effective the entire offense is in general. This is a situation in which you have a traditional run-heavy offense being managed by a guy known for his passing attack. In a vacuum, it’s as polish as the city’s inhabitants.

Tightends

Having rode Dallas Clark in my most significant and PPR league a season ago, I’m not trying to under appreciate the position. Having the best TE in fantasy football gives your fantasy squad a clear advantage every week of the season sans his bye week. In 2010, there are so many useful TEs to choose from that it makes little sense to invest much into the position. In fact, in 12-team and shallower leagues you might be able to treat the position like a defense and just stream weekly, playing the match ups.

I’m not that old, but I’m guessing the NFL has not had this much talent at the tight end position in quite some time, if at all. You’ve got young guys who have broke out in Vernon Davis and Brent Celek, young guys who are on the verge of breaking out in John Carlson and Jermichael Finley. Tony G is still a treat to watch and I just know one of Jason Witten, Heath Miller or Greg Olsen is going to have a great year. What’s that you say? Carson Palmer has a tight end now? Perhaps in no other position can you see just how much NFL football has evolved in the past decade or two.

Young QBs Who Were Handed The Keys To The Offense

Some have been around longer than others but each starts the 2010 season as the undisputed starter for their respective team for the first time in their careers. Guys like Josh Freeman, Matt Leinart, Kevin Kolb and Sam Bradford. I’m very interested to see how the next crop of quarterbacks performs. Can Freeman and Bradford fill giant voids and solve their team’s quarterback problems? No longer hidden in the shadows of their predecessors, Kolb and Leinart lead their teams into new eras not just new seasons. Nevertheless, the fantasy owner in me will not be baiting my fishing pole in hopes of landing one of these signal callers on draft day.

Outside of Bradford, they have all shown flashes of the abilities needed to take their game to the next level. The most talent of the bunch, coaches included, surrounds Kolb but he plays in the toughest division of the four. Leinart will be throwing to Fitzy but the other team knows that too and the Cardinals are becoming more run-orientated. Can Freeman’s legs get it done as a top twelve fantasy QB if nobody can catch the deep ball? Meanwhile, Bradford is looking at a season of on-the-job-training with a unit that has less talent than most in the league. I’m not expecting total failure here, but I am expecting learning curves. Those learning curves could take four or more weeks to overcome, potentially making them a detriment to at least one third of your fantasy season.

Be mindful of when to wear your fantasy decoder glasses this summer. Like a day out in the sun, too much exposure can lead to unwanted results; too little exposure and you won’t enjoy it!

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Cup Champs Offer Plan For Fantasy Success

2010-06-10T12:16:00.003-04:00

Champions are champions, whether hoisting the Stanley Cup or whatever passes for a trophy in your fantasy football league. For the astute fantasy football GM, however, much can be gleaned from the Blackhawks’ triumphant run through the NHL Playoffs. READ MORE

Breaking Down A Winner

The path to Lord Stanley is not an easy one. Similar in many ways to a fantasy football season, the NHL Playoffs offer up weeks of ups and downs. The demands and pressures Chicago felt during their run is not that different from the ones you will endure during the 2010 fantasy football season. You don’t have to love hockey to appreciate a championship team.

Overcoming Adversity And Injury

I’m starting with this one because it’s the most intangible attribute a fantasy owner can learn. I have always argued that luck is one of the most significant factors in fantasy football. Luck comes in two forms, good and bad. Since hiding from luck isn’t an option, the next best thing is to understand it’s all part of the game.

If you watch any sports lately, not just hockey, I’m sure you can find a missed call or two. It happens. Phantom calls are everywhere. For the Blackhawks, they dealt with them and persevered.

Tomorrow’s debut of the A-Team movie couldn’t sum it better, “I pity the fool who cries when his or her fantasy team is hit by a freight train of injuries and unforeseen bad luck.” It can happen to any team, including yours. Luck has a way of evening out so the more you play through the misfortune, the closer you are to flipping the coin in your favor. If Chicago’s Duncan Keith can lose a mouthful of teeth and come back determined to win, you can too.

Line Depth

You can win with a stars and scrubs team if the above mentioned luck meter tilts in your favor most of the way. The better way to go in my opinion is set yourself up with the best chance to win each week by fielding a strong deep team capable of matching up every week.

Throughout the entire playoff run, Joel Quenneville did as good a job as you will ever see at getting the guys he wanted on the ice. It cost them a few goals and even a win as they got caught in a line change, but in the end it proved to be advantageous.

As a fantasy football owner, having quality options allows you to play the best matchups each week and ultimately increase your team’s ability to put up higher point totals on a weekly basis. A star player can get you to the playoffs, but one bad game in week 16 could cost you a title if the rest of your team can’t score.

Shots On Goal

Patrick Kane’s series clincher in overtime was a puck thrown at the net more than it was a shot. Throwing pucks towards the net creates more scoring chances. Every team that simplified their game plan to highlight this philosophy found success. It didn’t always lead to wins, but it led to more goals being scored. The more chances you have to score the more likely you are to score.

In fantasy football scoring chances equates to touches. When a player touches the ball he has the ability to score points for your beloved fantasy team. If there is any stat you want to follow along throughout the season it is touches and targets. In this case, more is better.

This also applies to speculative player additions and handcuffs. There is no guarantee a backup will see the same touches or targets as a team’s number one option. A team that loses it’s top RB is just as likely to throw the ball more as it is to hand the ball to it’s second best ball carrier. When filling out your roster, look for players who have the best chance at getting maximum touches or targets if the guys above them on the depth chart miss time.

Changing On The Fly

This might be the hardest skill to master and quite frankly I am not even sure you can actually master it. I’m talking about the ability to know when to stop relying on something that has been working extremely well and make a change. We’ve all heard the expression, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The problem we face as fantasy owners is that the more success we have with something the less likely we are to feel it is broken. If we don’t feel it is broken them we subscribe to the adage and refrain from fixing anything. Our confidence in players can blind us to identifying the parts that are broke.

Remember what I said about line depth? The Blackhawks began the Stanley Cup Finals using the same line combinations that got them there. Philly smothered Chicago’s best scoring line in the opening games of the series and ultimately got themselves back into the series because the best players weren’t scoring. The ‘Hawks were blinded by the past production from that top line and kept running them out there. Once they realized something was broke, they fixed it. They one decision led to more offense from the entire Blackhawks team.

Sometimes fantasy owners do have to bench their best players against good teams. Sometimes fantasy owners do have to trade away their best player because their roster resembles a M.A.S.H. unit. How do you know when to sell high or buy low? It’s the toughest skill to master, but when you fix the problem at the right time, it can make all the difference in your 2010 fantasy football season.

Preparation

Last but not least is preparation. More specifically, using your experiences from previous years to steer clear of previous pitfalls. If you don’t think the young Blackhawk players learned a thing or two from last year’s loss to the Detroit Red Wings in the Western Conference Finals you are mistaken.

Experience is a big deal; it makes us more knowledgeable fantasy football owners. What are people looking at first when evaluating players in 2010? They are looking at last year’s performance. We always look to the past to help us find success in the future. It’s not just in constructing fantasy football player rankings; it’s in preparing for your draft, communicating amongst your league mates to broker a deal and identifying your opponents’ biases.

When you spend 17 weeks slaving over a fictional team of professional players, you inevitably learn a thing or two. You learn how to balance your fantasy sports addiction with the rest of your life and you learn how to be better at playing the game that is fantasy football. You learn that the only way you can win a championship is to be even better the next year.

Congratulations to the 2010 Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks!

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Really Early 2010 Fantasy Football Stockwatch

2010-06-03T11:33:00.001-04:00

It may only be June but some players are already being evaluated as "breakout candidates" for the 2010 fantasy football year. After taking a quick look around the league, I have gathered up a few players who might fall into that category and more. READ MORE

I ended each heading with a '?' because it is almost too early to start judging players. Yet early rankings are already out, and mock drafting has begun! My opinions might change by the end of the summer but why not dust off a few of the perceptions I'm carrying into 2010?

Attractive Investments?

Dwayne Bowe – Bowe falls into the category of guys I have always liked but never seem to roster. This year it looks like the Kansas City offense has better talent to keep defenses honest. Consistent targets should make him a pretty steady producer in 2010. When you apply the discount he'll likely receive on draft day, Bowe becomes a nice value play.

Michael Crabtree – Character aside, Crabtree is one of the most gifted young wideouts in the league. Alex Smith has matured and the ground game should create plenty of play-action opportunities for Crabtree to exploit. Even in a run-orientated offense, I expect Crabtree to show us some razzle and dazzle when the ball is thrown his way.

Steve Smith (Car) – I’m expecting a ton of receptions from the quick-footed Smith in 2010 so PPR leaguers might want to bump him up a few spots. I love receivers with big RAC potential that receive a ton of targets. Not only does Smith provide that, he’s a tough, wily veteran and doesn’t take any plays off.

’09 Dividends Too Tough To Match?

Cedric Benson – I admit I have some bitterness towards this guy (being a Bear fan). I just question his ability to produce under a heavy workload as well as the chances he receives the same kind of touches in 2010. File him under "I'll gladly let him prove me wrong (again)."

Jay Cutler – This one has more to do with expected '09 dividends than the ones his owners actually accrued, however the Cutler is still perceived to be amongst the better quarterbacks to own after the top three to five are gone. Mike Martz has to get the Bears’ young receiving corps to run great routes. Then he has to get a quarterback who lacks confidence in those receivers to throw it through a window to a spot on the field where those receivers should be by the time the ball is there. I’m hoping like crazy they can make it work, but I’m more than a little skeptical.

Greg Olsen – This one is more about the position than the player. More often than not there will be a fantasy owner in every league who feels the offensively gifted Olsen will be successful in a Mike Martz offense. That’s a chance I won’t be taking with plenty of cheaper options this year. The difference between the 5th rated TE and the 12th rated TE will be far less than you'd expect in 2010.

Holding Their Value?

Jerome Harrison – Don’t sell this guy short, but be careful to pay attention to the news coming out of Cleveland during training camp. Harrison was a beast for fantasy owners down the stretch last year but his role in the 2010 Cleveland Browns offense is not cemented.

Steven Jackson – It’s almost a travesty to even have to mention Jackson’s name here. Let’s face it, touchdowns are king and Jackson proved last season that St. Louis can experience droughts at times. I'm seeing a beast of a running back with just as much chance of scoring 15 times as he does scoring 5 times.

DeAngelo Williams – Chances are Williams’ 2009 owners will steer clear of him in 2010. Considering that his backfield companion had more carries in 2009, they won’t be the only one who is skeptical on draft day. I understand dropping him down the board a few slots, but don’t go overboard and forget he is a RB1.

Wild Cards?

Ladanian Tomlinson – A decline in 2009 was not hard to predict but the level of decline was certainly debatable. He heads into 2010 with a reduced role. Will that reduced role keep his legs fresh to make him a great flex play most weeks or will it lead closer to his retirement? At the end of the day, he has name recognition and that will probably prevent him from sliding too far in the minds of your fellow fantasy competitors.

Steve Slaton – I’d have to say this was the biggest bust of the 2009 fantasy football season. He is too talented and too young for the Texans to just give up on him and neither should you. The fumbles need to be solved and his confidence needs to be reparied. I’m reserving judgment on him until at least week 2 of the pre-season.

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Blitz: Wisenhunt To Call Plays Again

2010-05-28T12:53:00.001-04:00

I’ve rounded up a few links from around the NFL and fantasy football community to digest over the holiday weekend. Thank you to the brave men and women who have fought and continue to defend our homeland! READ MORE

It looks like Arizona HC Ken Wisenhunt will be calling the offensive plays again in 2010. The departures of WR Anquan Boldin and QB Kurt Warner combined with the play of last season’s rookie RB Beanie Wells should lead to more balance attack from the redbirds. Arizona rushed the ball only 365 times during the 2009 regular season, less than any other team in the NFL.

One of the more intriguing position battles to keep an eye on this pre-season will be in Texas where Jacoby Jones is trying to unseat Kevin Walter as the team’s #2 WR behind Andre Johnson. Jones has impressed HC Gary Kubiak early in in OTA’s and could become a low end WR3 for fantasy owners by draft day.

The Lions are reportedly going to take a look at LB Keith Bulluck. Bulluck played for Detroit HC Jim Schwartz in Tennessee and is coming off knee surgery.

Torry Holt will try to become the latest aging veteran to blossom into a useful role player on the Patriots in 2010. Holt’s experience and route running should help the Pats overcome the loss of Wes Welker and help mentor the younger receivers on the team.

Cornelius Griffin and E. J. Henderson are ahead of schedule in their respective recoveries from injury. However, both defensive starters remain questionable to be ready in time for the start of training camp.

Have a safe holiday weekend!

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Baggage Claims

2010-05-27T12:14:00.002-04:00

Each year fantasy owners must decide how much luggage they want to tote onto their 2010 fantasy football rosters. Before that can be done, we must first understand what “baggage” really means in fantasy football. READ MORE

What Is Baggage?

The concept of “baggage” is not new, but it’s meaning has progressed. Baggage is an umbrella word to collectively combine the history, track record, health concerns, etc. of each player into one lump sum. The sum then becomes a simple variable in our analysis of players each year. Every player has baggage in fantasy football-even the rookies.

Today, more than ever, blogs, tweets, text messaging and the rest of the online sharing capabilities are giving you the fantasy owner more access to player information than ever before. This evolution requires fantasy owners to learn the skill of sorting through the abundance of information. Everyone has always had an opinion, but now everyone is able to voice those opinions to the masses with relative ease.

Where To Claim Baggage?

One of the most wonderful things about having so much information at our virtual fingertips is the ability to choose how to use it, if at all. Having such a large selection allows you to narrow you choices to those you deem the most valuable and informative to serve your own fantasy football needs.

Under the big umbrella are two main types of baggage: factual-based and opinion-based. Factual-based materials are usually rooted in statistics and player news. Opinion-based resources are typically authored works such as blogs, message boards and articles scattered on fantasy football themed web sites. Educating yourself on the type of information you personally seek and where to find it requires a small investment of time in the beginning but saves time during the season. When set up properly, search engines, bookmarks and RSS readers combine to provide a powerful tool in sorting through all the baggage quickly and efficiently.

Baggage Comes In Many Shapes, Sizes

More often than not, we use baggage to solidify our preconceived perceptions on a player. We never set out to do this, but subconsciously we do it to a fault. The more we want to like a player, the more likely we are to overlook any “baggage” that comes with that player. You do it when dating in high school and you do it in fantasy football. It’s only human, but you need to understand this going in or your biases towards players will lead you astray!

Baggage is just one word used to depict perception in fantasy football. When the term ‘baggage’ is attached to a particular player’s name it is generally considered to be negative in nature. Yet the word ‘upside’ is generally viewed as a positive endorsement. Which words do you use when describing a player? Which words do your opponents use? An observant owner may be able to draw insight into how their competition values certain players just by listening in casual conversation or reading emails. That is also why it is important to pick your own words wisely when talking about players in the pre-season-especially in leagues comprised of intelligent fantasy footballers.

Sometimes the same word can be used when discussing “baggage related” items in both positive and negative outlooks. In breaking down a generic RBBC one might say, “as long as RB2 is there to steal carries away from RB1 his upside is limited.” One could also say, “RB2 may be stealing carries from RB1, but RB1 is still getting more touches around the goal line, giving him more upside than RB2.” Same RBBC, yet each statement provides a different perspective on the players involved and respective ‘upside.’ Even in fantasy football, one man’s trash can be another man’s treasure.

Words like “love” and “marketing” are used commonly yet express a vast number of meanings. In fantasy sports, “baggage” is no different.

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Planning Starts Now For Draft Day

2010-05-21T13:45:00.004-04:00

Football season is revving up the engines and die-hard fantasy football enthusiasts are already inhaling every mock draft, list of rankings and position battle news they can find. It may be on the early side for planning your 2010 fantasy football roster but it isn’t too early to start planning the perfect fantasy football draft! READ MORE

If you have never been a fantasy football commissioner, you probably don’t realize the amount of planning and preparation that goes into staging one of the most enjoyable-and often memorable-times an “adult” can have annually: his/her fantasy football draft. To help make this occasion a success, fantasy football commissioners should start planning now.

Hurdle number one is always getting everyone in the league in the same place at the same time. Fantasy football is never going to trump most real life responsibilities for most of us so the best way to ensure you will have time for a fantasy football draft is to simply plan it early. As someone who has been in this position, it’s far easier said than done.

There are two ways to take on this challenge. The first way involves setting the time and date before filling the league. In doing so, you can simply fill the league with people who are available to be a part of the draft. If there is a conflict, you just keep looking before filling the spot. This method requires some time, which is why you should start sooner than later.

The second approach and probably the more common in leagues where most members are returning from previous patronage, is to conduct a quick survey. Talk to your league’s members and find out what dates are absolutely in conflict with their schedule. Also find out any preferences to location and potential budgetary concerns each member may have. Once this information is gathered, use it in selecting the best time, date and venue to hold your league’s draft. Providing these details to your league in late May and early June gives them enough time to plan accordingly and be in attendance.

Lastly, I want to mention draft proxies. A proxy is someone who essentially represents the owner of the team and drafts in their absence. Using a proxy works as often as it fails. Regardless, make sure everyone in the league is aware of the situation prior to the draft. If a proxy is to be used, make sure the entire league knows who the proxy will be and has time to voice concern or veto that person’s involvement. I’m not against using a proxy when needed, but I would express caution to any commission in handling these situations as it can lead to problems at the draft and throughout the season.

Rules of Thumb For Draft Planning

Plan early. You should be sending out reminders, not invitations in the weeks leading up to your draft. Make sure EVERYONE is planning early, not just you. One bad egg can make the whole room stink on draft day!

Better to have more room than not enough. I hate walking into a draft and finding myself having to cover up my rankings like a 4th grader taking a math test or worried about spilling my drink across the keys of my laptop because there isn’t enough room to work.

Extra seating and tables. Along with having plenty of room, being prepared to accommodate more people and their needs not only makes life easier but also makes everyone happy!

Electrical needs and equipment. If needed, who is bringing extension cords and/or power strips, internet routers and/or wires and if you are having it at a local eatery be sure to find out if you need to tape down wires and cords prior to the draft.

Non-participant support. Most commissioners also have a team to draft. If you think you are going to run the event as well as draft a championship caliber team you better have a horseshoe nearby! Find some nice people to lend a hand and don’t forget they need to know as early as possible too!

Draft etiquette. Expectations should be discussed and understood by EVERYONE involved with the draft. Everyone runs with different crowds and has differing views on what “happens” at a fantasy football draft. Make sure league participants are on the same page in terms of what the draft should be regarding food, smoking, beverage, language, are girlfriends/boyfriends/children allowed etc.

Be committed. If you are the commissioner and tell your league the draft will be live, the time and energy you put into making it happen falls under your duties as commissioner. If you don’t have the desire and passion to make a live draft successful, use an alternative style of draft.

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Campbell Switches Coasts

2010-04-27T13:35:00.001-04:00

Quarterback Jason Campbell hasn’t lit up the fantasy football world in recent years, but he has always been a nice “match up” play against weaker defenses. Will his move to the left coast boost his fantasy stock in 2010? READ MORE

Campbell reminds me a little of Byron Leftwich in that he seemingly kept his job despite posting very modest production season to season. However, he might just lead the Raiders back onto the fantasy map.

Campbell has seen plenty of playbooks and defenses, which should help him overtake Kyle Boller, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye and the infamous Jamarcus Russell for the starting gig in Oaktown. He has a chip on his shoulder and expects to be the starter. The Raiders brass will stay politically correct in telling everyone it is an open competition but the reality is that Oakland can’t afford to lose football games in 2010. There will be plenty of articles written until a starter is named, but Campbell should be the guy by the time your fantasy draft rolls around.

Assuming Campbell is the starter, what can he offer fantasy owners in 2010?

Jason Campbell finally gets an opportunity to play in an NFL offense that fits his skill set. Ironically, he had to travel to Oakland to get out of the West Coast offense. Despite the relative fantasy drought from Oakland in recent years, the Raiders do have talent on offense capable of making Campbell worthy of being in your starting lineup.

His propensity to fumble will always be present, but Campbell should have ample opportunity to throw the long ball with the Silver and Black. The longer routes will also lead to more than a few quarterback scrambles throwing some rushing yards into the fantasy pot. Running backs capable of turning a screen pass into a 57-yard touchdown catch are even more reason to like Campbell’s fantasy upside in 2010.

Yet the biggest reason fantasy owners should come to like Campbell is simply the value he affords the instinctual fantasy football manager. Value, value, value! The name of the game when drafting any fantasy football squad is value. Oakland and Campbell’s track records alone will cause most fantasy owners to shy away from him in most 10-12 team leagues. As a result, you are likely to net the 2005 first rounder for the price of a backup. The discounted price will make Campbell’s upside that much more attractive on draft day. Barring injury, Jason Campbell’s new address could yield nice dividends to your fantasy football team in 2010.

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Fantasy Notes From Round One

2010-04-23T10:52:00.008-04:00

Round one is in the books and it’s already impacting the fantasy forecast of several players. Taking notes in April can give you a leg up later this summer as you prepare for the 2010 fantasy football season! READ MORE

Caution, Fantasy Friction Ahead!

The Bills surprised many people with their selection of RB C. J. Spiller. Marshawn Lynch’s stock has been falling but this essentially puts Lynch on notice in Buffalo. The bigger issue facing fantasy owners lies with Fred Jackson where it seemed a larger role was on the horizon. Spiller isn’t just a first round pick, he’s talented and went early in the first round. Buffalo clearly believes he will contribute in 2010 which ultimately limits the ceiling of Fred Jackson and his fantasy prospects.

Denver used to provide fantasy owners with ulcers at the RB position and now new coach Josh McDaniels is laying the foundation to do the same at the QB position. One of the draft’s first round enigmas, Tim Tebow, has been added to a team that enters next season with last season’s starter, Kyle Orton and the acquired talent of Brady Quinn. A mile high and a mile away is where you will want to be when Denver’s trio of QBs are taken in your fantasy draft.

Spring Fantasy Blooms

Steve Young had to try a few times, but he was finally able to offer up perspective fantasy owners should be jotting down. San Francisco used it’s highest draft picks to shore up a shallow offensive line. In doing so, they seemingly gave a vote of confidence to QB Alex Smith as their man under center to open the season. Also, judging by the types of lineman they chose, it also seems that Mike Singletary is going to place more of an emphasis on the ground game. The fantasy picture is coming into focus for the 49ers and you won’t want to be caught with your pants down on these players when choosing your fantasy team in 2010.

Jermain Greshem leads a revolution of sorts for fantasy owners in 2010. It’s still early, but the TE position is looking awfully deep right now. The relative declines of older players, the development of younger players and the increased number of young signal callers are going to create more opportunities for tight ends in 2010. Greshem will be catching the ball from an accurate Carson Palmer as the Bengals continue to build a balanced offensive attack.

So Is That Good Or Bad?

Dez Bryant’s talent and upside created a stir in the second half of the first round. He ends up in Dallas and you can bet he’ll be expected to contribute out of the gate. My first impression leaves me wondering how good the offense can be. Can they truly become a dynamic offense that produces a bounty of fantasy production like the Colts or will the yards and touchdowns be split amongst several players? I see a lot of playmakers on the Cowboys’ offense, but as it stands in April I’m struggling to see a true fantasy gem.

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2009 Bookmarks: Ronnie Brown And Steve Smith

2010-02-10T11:16:00.006-05:00

Most people are getting ready to pack up sshop on fantasy football, diving into other sports. Yet keeper and dynasty leagues require owners to be attentive throughout the off-season. READ MORE

If you are fairly new to fantasy football, enjoyed the fun of setting lineups each week and are looking to amp up the volume on your fantasy football hobby I suggest taking a look at keeper and dynasty leagues.

As with any league, there is a great deal of customization in these leagues. I'm not going to get into all the styles and types of leagues out there in this post, but I encourage you to explore the landscape prior to the 2010 fantasy football season.

If you are already playing in one of these leagues, you are aware of the challenges associated with choosing your "core" players. I've found one of the harder decisions to make is determining just when to let go of a solid fantasy veteran and roll with the younger developing stud.

Jerome Harrison and Jamaal Charles are examples of running backs that performed admireably down the stretch. So much so that the collective fantasy community is carrying that praise by moving these guys up their early rankings. In their wake lies a slew of fantasy veterans who are a little less shiny but still have plenty of gas left in the tank. These guys are being overlooked now and you can expect them to be overlooked even more after the NFL Draft when OTA's begin.

I thought I would take a quick look at two of these players before the season is too far removed. Leaving a few "bookmarks" from the previous season is extremely helpful in jumpstarting your preparation later in the year.

RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - Brown is injury prone. Brown is good. Brown is actually really good. I'm not suggesting he is a player worth taking in the first round, but he is a first round talent when healthy. How many people wrote off Fred Taylor once he was labeled "injury-prone?" You might not get a full season from him, but he's a poor man's RB1 that can be had after the first round. He'll be passed by from risk averse owners until he falls in the lap from an owner making an educated gamble.

WR Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers - Smith may be the hardest to cover in the NFL. He is tough and can score any time he touches the ball. Injuries and quarterback issues have kept his fantasy output down in recent years. He is essentially the Ronnie Brown of the WR position. If you made Smith a part of your fantasy team in recent years, you probably don't want him on your squad. If your leaguemates fall asleep on him, be ready to scoop him up.

So what do you do with these players in keeper leagues? Your league settings and keeper rules will ultimately make the choice for you. If you keep four or less players in your league these guys are less likely to be kept making it possible for you to reacquire them at a more reasonable value. In leagues keeping a deeper pool of players, you have to keep them based on talent and potential alone. In these leagues, you might be wise to explore some trading opportunities as well.

Identifying brand names with above-average risk associated with them is a good starting place when looking for potential bargains for the 2010 fantasy football season when everyone is chasing the next Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew.

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Da Bears In 2010

2010-02-09T09:38:00.010-05:00

With the off season officially here, we can now officially look at the 2010 season. As the days go by, I'll periodically check in and offer my opinions in a segment called Pitch and Catch. Being a Bear's fan, it's only logical to begin with the buzz stemming from Mike Martz' arrival in the Windy City. READ MORE

I'll get to Mike Martz in a minute. First, what the hell did the Bears really do here? Angelo and Smith were kept with the prerequisite of replacing several key coaches. I like Lovie and think he is in the top half of NFL coaches, but at a time when iconic coaches are available it's hard for me to see past what could have been.

Since this is a fantasy football post I'll just move forward by saying that Angelo's impact on the NFL draft and the 2010 fantasy season will be minimal since the Bears have traded their top two picks and the NFL is moving into an uncapped season. Angelo's biggest hurdle this off-season will be getting some defensive ends on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, the Bears will seek out some younger guys on the offensive line.

Lovie has already made his biggest contribution to the fantasy season by hiring Mike Martz. Where there is Martz, there is fantasy football buzz. How Martz' play-calling and coaching will translate into fantasy success is hard to predict but one thing is for sure: The Bears' offensive players are far more relevant for the 2010 fantasy football season than they were a couple of weeks ago.

Martz will have to alter the offense we've come to know in his previous coaching stops. He must alter it because he's playing in Chicago and not inside or in warm weather. This will be a very unique Martz offense, one that makes predicting the true values of Forte, Cutler and company tougher for the 2010 season.

Forte can't do much worse and he'll take less of a beating so I'm optimistic in a nice rebound. Devin Hester can blossom if his route running improves-something I don't see happening. Knox and Bennett are in the perfect position to be assets to fantasy teams in 2010 while Jay Cutler remains one of the riskier quarterbacks to own. Until the Bears are able to land a truly gifted wideout, Cutler's touchdown totals likely won't reach the level of more elite signal callers.

The one player I was preparing to be bullish on is Greg Olsen. I say preparing because it seemed like the Bears' coaching search highlighted the tight end position. In my eyes, Chicago was looking to tailor its new offense around Cutler and Olsen. Then Martz was hired. The same guy who all but takes the TE position off the fantasy field. Olsen is different and as I've already said this Chicago-style Martz offense will be different. The hiring of Martz still has me cooling on Olsen, but the fact that Olsen remains the best receiving threat inside the red-zone keeps me very interested in his prospects for the 2010 fantasy season. Martz must make Olsen a focal point of the offense. If Martz is successful, the Bears offense will regain some luster within the fantasy realm.

The bigger, and possibly the biggest piece to the fantasy puzzle created with Martz' hiring is simply the schedule. The Bears will be playing the NFC East and AFC East in 2010. I put a lot of weight into schedules and opponents when preparing for a fantasy season. When faced with uncertainty of how players will perform under Martz combined with a slate of tough matchups, you'd be wise to take two steps back form the buzz around the Bears when evaluating Chicago's fantasy talent for 2010.

Moving on...

Early rankings are fun. They are also meaningless with so many factors yet to be determined. However, I'm more than a little surprised to see Jamaal Charles being treated like MJD. I see a nice running back on a team looking to mirror the Patriots of old. I see the ball being spread around in the offense and I also see the need for another RB to contribute in the offense. Charles is a nice player, but I'm not ready to make him my top running back any time soon.

I'll stoke the fire since it is sure to be a story at some point. If Favre doesn't come back, what is the value of a Percy Harvin? or Sidney Rice? Chester Taylor is likely going to head towards greener pastures as well. With Brett in toe, the Vikings could make one more run at a title, leading to fantasy riches. Without him, the team looks one-dimensional, leading to fantasy gambles.

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BOXCAR Football update

2009-12-13T10:25:00.001-05:00

I've spent a lengthy time away from this blog. I have simply had little time to devote with higher priorities in my life. I am going to try to offer some limited posts as we close out the season but will back at full force in the summer to get ready for the 2010 season! Read More

So many things have happened since I last posted, but I'll try to focus on some of the more meaningful tidbits during fantasy playoff time!

First and foremost is a quick comment on the "Meachem Fumble of 2009." This play directly decided the outcome of a division winner and subsequent first round bye week in my biggest money league. Needless to say, it has caused a stir around the fantasy community.

My initial feelings steered me towards thinking this was a touchdown for the Saints defense. However, the logic that the Saints become the defense upon the interception should also be applied to the turnover that occurred when Meachem picked up the ball. At that point the Saints become the offense again and Meachem scores as an offensive player. I'd still credit the Saints defense with a forced fumble but not a fumble recovery. Regardless of your opinion on what the official fantasy scoring on this play, I hope your league handled it well. In our league, our commissioner did a great job at presenting the facts and precedent that had been sent. Not everyone was happy with the decision but in the end it has been accepted and everyone moves on.

To round out this post I will just throw out some opinionated bullets:

Shonn Greene is an interesting player to own at this point in the season. Greene should see increased carries this week with Kellen Clemens starting at QB. However, the Jets are not looking good for post-season play should they suffer another loss. Once the post-season is lost, I would not be surprised to see Greene's carries trend upward to the 15-18 mark.

Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy owners should be worried. Westy might be back next week after practicing. If that happens, Westbrook likely won't get enough carries to contribute and McCoy will see a decrease in touches making him a risky play as well.

I don't want to hear any more about how Troy Palamalu's injury is the reason behind the Steelers struggles. You don't become Super Bowl champs because of one player and you don't lose to the Cleveland Browns because of one player.

Those looking for a playoff TE if your starter is rested should consider Bo Scaife of the Titans. He should post modest numbers with a touchdown or two sprinkled in during the last few weeks of the season.

I'm heavily invested in the Patriots and the only thing that worries me is a possible blizzard in Buffalo next week. I will be looking at weather reports starting tomorrow, but if the weather remains clear, I'm expecting Randy Moss to close out the season on a high note.

I'll end with the Bears. My Bears finally ran the ball a ton and won a football game. Unfortunately, they were forced to change their play-calling after Cutler had an injury to his throwing hand. This season may be lost (if you drafted Matt Forte your season is probably not too bright by now either) but the Bears would be wise to see how effective running the ball can be even if you only average 3.0 ypc.

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BOXCAR Football Premium Partner

2009-12-13T09:55:00.001-05:00

BOXCAR Football would not have started this season without the support and encouragement of friends and family. One of those supporters has stepped up to the plate to become a premium partner of BOXCAR Football's future. Read More

"I will Decide" is one of his many slogans, but Tailgator Dave also enjoys following the USC Trojans and the Dallas Cowboys throughout the gridiron season. He has been supportive of this blog from the very beginning and I look forward to our continued partnership with BOXCAR Football.

You can find Tailgator Dave on Facebook or by email.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Dissecting Your Fantasy Roster Down The Stretch

2009-11-10T14:26:00.001-05:00

Week 9 is in the books and many fantasy leagues begin the playoffs in week 1. That leaves four weeks to push your fantasy team into the playoffs. Also, trading deadlines are creeping up and owners are getting awfully desperate these days. So I figured I would serve up a few helpful things to keep in mind. Read More

BLOG NOTE: I am in the middle of several higher priority tasks right now. As a result, I just haven’t been able to devote much time to this blog. The good news is things should subside a bit by the end of the month. The bad thing is that there are still a few weeks remaining in November. I’d like to post more but right now my energy needs to be used elsewhere. I’ll try to post when I can but don’t expect much until December.

What CAN a player do vs. What HAS a player done

Preseason and even early season opinions on players need to be cast aside. Review your ENTIRE roster and determine what each player is worth to your team. Break it down week by week and list the match ups. Without bye weeks to worry about there is no reason you can’t forecast your starting lineup for the remainder of the fantasy regular season. Dissect that roster and probable starting lineups!

What is the value of a Beanie Wells in week 10 vs. Beanie Wells in Week 14 and 15? We don’t know exactly, but I think you can safely say it’s going to increase. Forecasting is not an exact science but one would think 10-15 touches against the Rams and Lions during the fantasy playoffs has more value than 8-12 touches against Seattle. Will Felix Jones, Darren Sproles, Brian Westbrook or any other RB on your roster have similar value at that point in the season?

I could right pages of details on this but the key principle is that you need to look for budget lotto tickets. If you are a middle of the road team who needs to win now, cash in Wells (by playing up his playoff schedule) for some immediate help. If you have things locked up, go get Wells so you don’t end up losing to the team who squeaked into the playoffs who had Wells on his bench.

Trimming Fat vs. Storing Fat

Aright, now don’t confuse this with what I outlined above. Finding the right fantasy fat content on your roster can go a long way towards your success heading into the colder weather. If you have quality depth on bench you should look to make a trade with a must-win-now team. However, if you don’t have quality depth, you can still use your bench to help your playoff chances.

Using essentially the same type of thinking as above, dissect your league’s waiver wire to find potential one week adds that have some value. If you are holding guys like Devery Henderson, Cadillac Williams, Kyle Orton-players that likely will not be options for most teams’ starting lineups the rest of the season-you might want to consider using your roster space differently.

If you play in a league where at least one team is streaming defenses (or you are the team streaming defenses) you might want to shed one or more players that don’t offer much value to hoard a couple of defenses. Take a look at the NFL schedule and gobble up anything that looks tasty. Drain the pool from which that team has to pick (or create your own if you are streaming) and make their choices less appetizing. The point is that even though you might not have any players to help you win on your bench you can still use those slots to make it tougher for another owner to win. After all, defense wins championships right?

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Fantasy Hangover - Week 8

2009-11-03T16:16:00.001-05:00

How does a quarterback throw for nearly 350 yards and not record a passing touchdown? Peyton Manning did exactly that last weekend. But that wasn’t the biggest fantasy development of week 8. For that we head to Houston where Steve Slaton is probably sleeping with a football these days. Read More

“Hot Potato” Slaton fumbled away carries for the rest of the season and his fantasy owners. One of the top ten RBs coming into the season, Slaton is in the middle of a sophomore slump. I’m never one to write off a player who fumbles after seeing Ahman Green and Tiki Barber refine their ball security skills. Still, a decreased workload knocks Slaton’s value down a few pegs and seriously hampers any chance of him being a dominant force down the stretch for your fantasy team.

Michael Turner showed some nice burst in last night’s game. Turner’s production has slipped a bit from last season but I am expecting a nice second half from him. I hope you didn’t bench Ray Rice against the “vaunted” Bronco defense. It wasn’t a historic day but the dual threat is getting plenty of touches to help his owners. Barring a collapse, the former Rutgers standout will be a top 5 pick heading into your 2010 fantasy draft.

St. Louis got one in the left column for a change. In my opinion the Rams have the least talented roster in the league. Everyone knows Steven Jackson is getting the ball and he still manages to find enough room to run. If I’m in a keeper league I’d try to pry him away from his current owner and bank on a much better supporting cast in 2010.

In a day with several unusual stat lines, MJD’s 177 yards on the ground looks weird next to 8 carries. Where did Sims-Walker go? I jumped on the bandwagon but I’m not thrilled to see Garrard struggle.

The loss of Kenny Phillips in the Giants’ secondary hasn’t been fixed. You can talk about all the injuries and make excuses but the defensive backs lack leadership. Once they are exploited they have not shown an ability to bear down and make plays. Poor tackling is just as inexcusable in the second half as it is the first half. On a side note, I think it’s time to buy Hakeem Nicks. Steve Smith is a fine receiver but he is destined for a possession role. Nicks is the fantasy fruit you should be picking. I’m not sure if he’ll evolve into the better fantasy wideout this season but he should be the better guy to own next year.

Rex Ryan and his staff have made some rookie mistakes this year and it’s going to cost them a playoff appearance. Romo came to play again and Miles Austin caught another touchdown. I’m really uncomfortable with Dallas’ players fantasy wise. I may ok with Austin as a WR2, but Witten and the backfield are a crapshoot with low fantasy ceilings.

Last but not least…Brett Favre still doesn’t look right in a non-Packers uniform but I can’t bet against him in real life or fantasy. Minnesota’s defense is somewhat overshadowed by Favre and the offense but as long as they stay healthy the fantasy totals should keep piling up for the offense.

Bears Corner

Good job Chicago! Beating the Browns doesn’t really offer much insight into the state of this team. Can the Bears stop the pass? I don’t think so. Can the Bears improve their rush attack? I’d like to hope so. Is Jay Cutler going to “manage” his aggressiveness? Not this year.

With their backs against the wall, the Bears take on the Arizona Cardinals this week. Kurt Warner has absolutely picked apart defenses when given time to throw making the match up an ugly one. A win would restore a sliver of hope in my mind, however an expected loss should leave the Bears floundering to finish the season with eight wins.

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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 8

2009-10-30T11:35:00.001-04:00

Several divisional games highlight week 8 as fantasy owners enter the second half of the fantasy season. Trades have been made, waiver wire claims processed and busts have been written off. Alas, a few bye weeks remain to pester fantasy owners. Who should you plug in this week? Read More

I am staying away from that little game up in Lambeau this week because emotions will be off the charts. It’s going to be a nice game to watch, but as far as fantasy prognostication goes you can throw trends out the window. This game will have a playoff atmosphere and anything can happen.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – Marc Bulger and David Garrard are easy calls this week but if you missed out on those guys and need a one week stop-gap, Sanchez is in an ideal position to post solid numbers. New York’s defense should give the offense plenty of opportunities and good field position. Additionally, Jerricho Cotchery should lineup opposite Braylon Edwards for the first time and they will play against rookie corners.

Sit: Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – The Smith bandwagon has enough supporters to warrant mentioning him here. The Niners OL is not playing well and is not likely to stop the ferocious pass rush of the Colts.

S and P: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – How can you sit a quarterback playing the Browns? The Bears may decide to actually run the ball 30 times but you can’t bank on that happening this season. Cutler will be slinging the ball around one way or another and a quality match up puts him in the start column this week.

RB

Start: Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – The Broncos are the toughest to run against, but Rice is turning the page in his young career. I’m not expecting huge numbers, but don’t you dare bench him unless you have clear-cut better options on your fantasy squad.

Sit: Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants – The toe injury won’t keep him sidelined but it give HC Tom Coughlin ample reason to run Jacobs more. Bradshaw could still get involved as a receiver this week with New York running screens against the blitz but counting on Bradshaw is still a risky play.

S and P: Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – Addai becomes a quality play this week with Donald Brown dealing with an injury. Another 20 touches could be in store against the 49ers.

WR

Start: Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – I’m warming up to the Marshall plan-especially this week. The Ravens have struggled mightily against the pass and Marshall may be the best run after the catch receiver in the game right now.

Sit: Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys – Miles Austin has taken over the role as Dallas’ top receiver. Should defenses start keying in on stopping Austin I expect Jason Witten to be the beneficiary, not Williams.

S and P: Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams – The conditions are right for a quality outing but with the Rams anemic offense nothing is certain. Double down on Avery and hope that Bulger can deliver a face card.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Neil Rackers, Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals offense should be able to move the ball well against the Panthers. Despite their quality of receivers and pass happy offense, they have only netter 9 passing touchdowns on the season. I’m liking the Arizona kicker to cash in on a few stalled drives against the Panthers.

Sit: Miami Defense – As I noted earlier, I think Mark Sanchez will have some success this week. The Dolphins should try to establish the run and eat the clock in this road game limiting the opportunity for the defense to record sacks and turnovers.

S and P: Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles – He has certainly cooled after his hot start but the Eagles will need to swap out some of the run game with the short pass to offset a likely decrease in carries from Brian Westbrook. I also don’t think Andy Reid will be as willing to let Brian Westbrook take goal line carries coming off the concussion making Celek the Eagles top option inside the ten-yard line.

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Week 7 Recap:

QB

Start: Matt Ryan – 198 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 Int

Sit: Chad Henne – 200 pass yds, 0 TD, 2 Int

S and P: Ben Roethlisberger – 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 Int

Ryan and the Falcons didn’t have an easy go of it in Dallas only posting respectable totals. New Orleans held Henne in check all day by allowing the former Wolverine to complete only 50 percent of his passes. Roethlisberger went up against a quality pass defense so his numbers shouldn’t come as a shock.

RB

Start: Tashard Choice – 0 rush, 1 rec 23 rec yds, 0 TD

Sit: Jamal Lewis – 47 rush yds, 0 TD

S and P: Thomas Jones – 121 rush yds, 1 TD, 1 rec, 3 rec yds, 0 TD

Choice’s fantasy value took a hit when it was announced Felix Jones would be active. Nobody should have started him at that point so I’ll take a mulligan and move on. Lewis is an aging back on a bad team that plays from behind the majority of the game. Leon Washington’s injury allowed Jones to record a season-high 26 carries in route to a stellar fantasy day.

WR

Start: Donald Driver and Greg Jennings – (Driver) 2 rec, 84 rec yds, 1 TD, (Jennings) 5 rec, 52 rec yds, 0 TD

Sit: Michael Crabtree – 5 rec, 56 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Steve Smith (Car) – 6 rec, 99 yds, 0 TD

Driver got the touchdown and Jennings got the targets, but in the end Green Bay ran the ball. Crabtree performed fairly well in his first pro action but didn’t merit a start on your fantasy team. Smith saw double digit targets for the first time since week 2 in route to an unspectacular but useful fantasy day.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Matt Stover – 0 FG, 6 XP

Sit: Zach Miller – 2 rec, 15 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Cincinnati Defense – 10 Points Allowed, 1 Sack, 3 Int, 1 FumRec

Stover was not needed for any three pointers but a cool 6 points helped anyone who plugged him. Miller saw his targets drop from 11 to 3 against the blitzing Jets. Cincinnati destroyed the turnover friendly Chicago offense.

NFL GAMES WEEK 8 (All times EST)

Bye: Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens - 1 p.m.
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills - 1 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears - 1 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys - 1 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions - 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers - 1 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts - 1 p.m.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets - 1 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans - 4:05 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers - 4:05 p.m.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals - 4:15 p.m.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles - 4:15 p.m.

Monday: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - 8:30 p.m

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 7

2009-10-26T14:19:00.001-04:00

Will the Eagles join the other defensive units who shined in week 7? Can Alex Smith turn Vernon Davis into a top-five fantasy TE for the rest of the season? Read More

I’m not sure the Patriots and Bucs did much to increase the appeal of American football in England. The script played out as expected with the Patriots handedly defeated the Bucs. Perhaps next time if Wembley Stadium is booked the NFL would consider moving their act to the “Wooden O?” Nonetheless, there was nothing strange to note here. We are another step closer to seeing Josh Freeman starting and Tom Brady took a few more shots down the field yesterday but failed to connect more often than not.

The 49ers’ Vernon Davis notched three scores yesterday. This game wasn’t merely a spectacular outing for his owners, but it also gave Davis touchdowns and double-digit targets in three of the past four games. In other words, Davis is getting more opportunity and he is cashing in, two very positive signs for fantasy owners. He is a must-start on the road and I’m moving him ahead of Greg Olsen and alongside Brent Celek for the rest of the season. Juicy match ups in week 16 (vs. DET) and 17 (at STL) don’t hurt either.

This week I couldn’t help but notice how many fantasy defenses posted big games. Of course not every league counts defenses and special teams the same, but we got it all yesterday. Blocked punts, kickoffs and interceptions were returned for scores. Plenty of sacks and fumbles, heck Carolina’s safety accounted for over 20% of their team’s final score!

It’s safe to say Chicago can’t stop the pass and needs to start calling more running plays. It is also time to start giving Carson Palmer a little more value. Palmer has the nice 2:1 TD:INT ratio you want in a QB1 and gets Baltimore, Cleveland, Oakland and Detroit in four of the next five games.

Leon Washington’s injury elevates the value of Thomas Jones for the rest of the season. Already the popular choice near the goal, Jones is in line to get close to 20 touches per game. Shonn Greene is flex add with some upside but I wouldn’t go overboard with your free agent budget to get him.

Speaking of running backs, several backfields are seeing their fantasy production dwindle. In Dallas, Felix Jones’ return almost makes every Cowboy running back a flex-only play. Tampa Bay went back to more of a 50/50 split just when it looked like Cadillac Williams was going to see 15 carries a game. Beanie Wells regained some of his lost thunder while encroaching on Tim Hightower’s recent success. Additionally, Mike Bell’s “hot hand” kept Pierre Thomas’ carries down. What does this mean for fantasy owners? As the number of legit RB2’s decreases it makes guys like Ryan Grant, Kevin Smith, Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams more valuable than ever.

If you haven’t bought into the decline of Ladanian Tomlinson take a look at his numbers yesterday. If you can’t produce 75 yards on 25 touches in the NFL you are not a great tailback. Well, Tomlinson failed to reach that benchmark against the Chiefs. The Chargers are now Phillip Rivers team so adjust accordingly.

Bears Corner

I’m far too disgusted with the performance of the Bear’s to waste time writing about them so I will just rant on the NFL.

Every passing week makes it clearer and clearer. The NFL has more than a few BAD teams. Six teams failed to score 10 points. When you consider Detroit and Tennessee were on a bye it makes it even more astonishing to me. Can you imagine what would happen to real businesses that made such poor personnel choices? I am not old enough to have lived through the NFL’s earlier days, but to think that the Washington Redskins and Oakland Raiders are considered to be “bad jobs” is a travesty. When guys like Jon Gruden and Mike Shannahan get fired while Dick Jauron and Eric Mangini are offered contracts one has to wonder what the heck NFL owners are sipping on these days? If it’s not aged at least 15 years it’s gotta be some mighty fine Kool-Aid.

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Felix Jones And The Temple Of Doom

2009-10-24T10:35:00.001-04:00

The Dallas backfield situation is muddied and fantasy owners are forced to make a touch decision this weekend. Read More

It's now being reported that Felix Jones will be back at full speed for tomorrow's tilt against Atlanta. That should equate to less carries for the Dallas trio of running backs.

Marion Barber is still feeling the effects of a quad injury and should be given a few more plays off now that Jones and Choice are healthy behind them. I'm still considering Barber a low end RB2 for this week, but his value for the rest of the season takes a little bit of a hit. Two capable backs stealing carries and an injury to a leg is not ideal for your top runner.

Felix Jones and Tashard Choice owners will need to wait and see how this situation plays out before deploying either player in their starting lineup. I had previously said Choice was a quality start this week, however Jones being back changes his outlook. Both running backs should be owned, but neither can be considered anything better than a RB3 with upside since there is obvious injury risk attached to Dallas' running backs.

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 7

2009-10-22T12:36:00.001-04:00

Week 7 will starve fantasy owners from porous pass defenses. Detroit, Tennessee, Jacksonville will not be giving up yards to fantasy QBs this week. However fantasy’s best passers should carry plenty of fantasy teams to victory with several juicy match ups to exploit. Read More

Cedric Benson should be running with some extra motivation facing the Bears this week making him a nice option at RB. The Dolphins will be out to control the clock against the high-octane Saints offense. Can New Orleans contain the Wildcat? Meanwhile, Oakland tries to put together a winning streak against another east coast team traveling west. We’ll be half way through the fantasy regular season after this week so lineup choices are critical!

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – His stat line Sunday night wasn’t very impressive and he is playing a team coming off a bye week. However, Dallas should struggle with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez in this game and I’m banking on a nice outing from the BC alum.

Sit: Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins – I’d love to insert Mr. Favre in this spot but I’m not going there again. I’m expecting Miami to focus on the run in this game, limited Henne’s chances for fantasy success.

S and P: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – I have been slow to accept the Steelers’ passing game, but Big Ben has strung together some nice games. He’ll have his hands full this week against the Vikings, but you can’t sit him when he is playing this well.

RB

Start: Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys – His production on the field seems to have cemented an increased role in the offense. If the team is prepared to give him more carries, fantasy owners should begin to put him in their lineups-specially in PPR formats.

Sit: Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns – Forget Lewis as a flex week play in week 7. The team has not had a normal week of preparation due to a flu outbreak and the Packers have held their past two opponents to 78 and 82 yards rushing.

S and P: Thomas Jones, New York Jets – The Jets should give the running game more carries as they try to take the pressure off their rookie quarterback. Jones tends to play better with more touches and fantasy owners will have to roll the dice on him against the Raiders this week.

WR

Start: Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers – Rodgers should record his third straight 300-yard passing day against the Browns this weekend. Consequently, I’m optimist fantasy owners will see production out of both starting wideouts this week.

Sit: Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers – A great talent, fantasy owners should take a “wait and see” approach to Crabtree. The 49ers will want to run the ball with Gore back in the mix and we don’t know how effective he will be in this offense with limited preparation.

S and P: Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers – Many of his owners will want to bench their high draft pick-deservedly so-but I think you need to give him one more week before writing him off.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Matt Stover, Indianapolis Colts – He’s back and he’s a great play this week playing indoors with a high-scoring offense.

Sit: Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders – If Oakland doesn’t use him to block Miller will still have to rely on Russell getting him the ball quickly. I wouldn’t count on Russell showing poise under pressure and making quick reads.

S and P: Cincinnati Defense – Chicago has shown it can move the ball, but it has also shown it can turn the ball over. If you don’t have a clear-cut choice, roll with the Bengals at home and hope the Bears’ turnovers continue.

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Week 6 Recap:

QB

Start: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – 112 pass yds, 0 TD, 1 Int

Sit: Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – 278 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 Int

S and P: Eli Manning, New York Giants – 178 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 Int

Hasselbeck burned me. What else is there to say except the team is very inconsistent. I guess I am too damn biased and wishing Favre would stop being so useful. He is proving to be one of fantasy’s better bargains at the QB position. The Saints had the Giants playing from behind early and gave Manning very little room to mount a comeback.

RB

Start: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – 13 rush yds, 0 TD

Sit: Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – 70 rush yds, 0 TD, 3 rec, 30 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Leon Washington, New York Jets – 99 rush yds, 0 TD, 3 rec, 46 rec yds, 0 TD

In an enigma of a game, McCoy and the rest of the offense struggled to move the ball. Tomlinson never really got it going and was not given a third try from inside the five after failing on the two previous carries. Overtime almost provided Washington with his first 100-yard rushing game in a very long time. Still, he racked up nice yardage totals.

WR

Start: Bryant Johnson, Detroit Lions – 2 rec, 27 rec yds, 0 TD

Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – 6 rec, 109 rec yds, 0 TD

S and P: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – 1rec, 42 rec yds, 0 TD

The Lions didn’t much of anything last week so nobody capitalized in Calvin Johnson’s absence I have never doubted the talent from Bowe, but maybe Haley’s motivational tactics are working. All I know is that if he keeps getting 14 targets a game he will have more games like this one. The Redskins are a mess and the team made a quarterback change in route to Moss’ poor outing.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears – 0 FGM, 2 XP

Sit: Seattle Defense – 27 Points Allowed, 2 Sacks, 1 Int, 1 FumRec

S and P: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens – 3 rec, 51 rec yds, 0 TD

Not a horrible outing from the Seahawks, but certainly nothing special. Heap prayers when unanswered as he failed to score. Turnovers inside the red zone cost the Bears a victory and a solid outing for Gould’s fantasy owners.

NFL GAMES WEEK 7 (All times EST)

Bye: Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals - 1 p.m.
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns - 1 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans - 1 p.m.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs - 1 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts at St. Louis Rams - 1 p.m.
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers - 4:05 p.m.
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders - 4:05 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys - 4:15 p.m.
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins - 4:15 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants - 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins - 8:30 p.m

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 6

2009-10-20T13:07:00.001-04:00

Week 6 sure had me fooled. The Texans showed why people liked them in the preseason. Baltimore’s defense is a good match up for your fantasy players. The Raiders shut down the second-ranked offense. To top it all off, as soon as I show Seattle some love, they go right back to being bad. Read More

Matt Forte’s stats are down and his owner in one of my league’s just shipped him off and stated he would have taken a box of crackerjacks in return for the struggling running back. This led to me to thinking about something I tend to do every year: digging in on players.

I toe the dirt on guys, unwilling to give up on them. We’ve all been there and I am there on Matt Forte. I’m not going to say he is a HUGE buy low but his price is likely so low that a modest improvement would result in a net gain for your fantasy squad. Ship him away if you like but I’m filing Forte under the “Weather” column-a growing list of players I am expecting to benefit from anticipated poorer weather conditions.

While we are on the weather, how about Tom Brady? Nobody is shocked if you’ve been following along with the Titans this season, but as a Brady owner in a competitive league I was more than happy to see him rack up the points. On the other side of the field, the Titans team of 2009 doesn’t share any characteristics of the 2008 group. I recommended adding LenDale White early this season and he is still on my “weather list” but he should be a free agent in leagues with 10 teams or less. Actually, he is droppable in 12 team leagues right now! I’d try to give him another week or two but I could be wrong on White this year.

Brandon Marshall’s fantasy production last night is exactly the reason why I consider him a WR2 for the 2009 season. The guy is good and he does great things when he catches the ball-see week 5. However, he does not get WR1 targets and therefore his receptions are going to be fairly “typical” wide receiver. When he doesn’t turn those 4-6 receptions into touchdowns you are left with 50-75 yards and an average fantasy score. The supposed discounted price you paid preseason is looking more like an appropriate price to me.

Are you kidding me Philadelphia? The Oakland Raiders? They not only scored but they prevented someone else from scoring? I didn’t watch the game but read a line in yesterday’s USA Today stating that the Eagles were “the first team in three years to fail to score a touchdown against the Raiders.” Can’t say I saw that one coming.

Over the weekend I was asked which Green Bay WR would I want to own for the rest of the season. Driver has been pretty consistent but Jennings is getting better every week. Given the choice I’d rather have Jennings. We know Jennings can be a WR1 and improvements in each of the last two weeks are enough to keep me optimistic.

Two more things of interest devloping in the NFL this year are the string of games on Atlanta's schedule against teams coming off a bye week and the number of winless teams Washington has faced. The latter has shown Washington to be a bad team. Will the former prove the Falcons are a solid team? You betchya. It's hard enough winning in the NFL, but when the cards are stacked against you the margin for error isn't just small, it doesn't exist.

Bears Corner

I gave the Bears a 50% chance of winning coming into the game. After the first half it was clear they could win this game and yet turnover after turnover after turnover my hopes dwindled. The team needs to upgrade it’s run blocking by any means necessary or Chicago fans will have as many inches of snow on the ground as their football tam has losses. Another road game they should have won. Is it me or does it smell like 8-8 in here?

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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 6

2009-10-15T12:44:00.001-04:00

Guys like Frank Gore and Willie Parker are getting back on the field. Other guys like Matt Forte, Ladanian Tomlinson and Pierre Thomas have fantasy owners optimistic in their return. Nobody has to play Peyton Manning or watch Ronnie Brown run the Wildcat. It’s week 6 in the NFL and it’s not too early to start thinking about your lineup on Sunday! Read More

I think Week 6 figures to give fantasy owners some growing pains as several pleasant surprises of the 2009 season could disappoint. Yet, some of the season’s early disappointments should shine with quality match ups.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – (Gulp) I am still not a fan of him this season, but I can’t bench him this week. He was great last week and gets an Arizona defense at home that has been far better at stopping the run than the pass.

Sit: Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – Right now, I would not want to be facing the Ravens. A team that prides itself on defense will heads to Minnesota with a chip on their shoulder. Favre is playing well but I think he makes a few bad throws in this game.

S and P: Eli Manning, New York Giants – I hate to place Manning in this post three straight weeks but he remains one of the tougher decisions for fantasy owners. Manning seemed ok last week playing with the injured foot. Just keep in mind the Saints have allowed only two passing touchdowns this year.

RB

Start: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – I’m expecting the Philadelphia defense to create turnovers and provide ample scoring chances. Throw in some garbage yards as the team runs out the clock late and McCoy becomes a nice flex option despite having to travel west.

Sit: Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - I'm not sitting LT over every guy but I have yet to see the same old LT and am not comfortable plugging him in despite an extra week of rest. He's really a boom or bust pick on Monday Night so unless you are playing one of the better teams in your league and need to take the risk I'd play it safe.

S and P: Leon Washington, New York Jets – Washington has seen his touches decrease in recent weeks, but the Bills just let an old Jamal Lewis rush for over 100 yards against them. I’m betting on Leon to finally break out and bust a few long plays on Buffalo at the Meadowlands.

WR

Start: Bryant Johnson, Detroit Lions – Anyone can tell you to start Randy Moss against the Titans, so I’m ramping it up a notch. The Packers are allowing the 7th most fantasy points WRs and Calvin Johnson is dealing with a minor injury. Johnson is also averaging 8 targets over his last three games. Stafford or Culpepper under center isn’t going to matter when the Lions are down and need to throw the ball.

Sit: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – Washington is allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points to receivers. He has yet to catch more than 5 passes in a game and should have a tougher time finding the end zone.

S and P: Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – Most would think Moss is an absolute start this week. The Chiefs have been torched through the air and are on the road, but he has eclipsed 75 yards and 5 receptions in a game only once this season. Added drama about a potential coaching change mid-season and Moss isn’t a lock to produce.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears – I think this game is close, with both teams moving the ball. As a result, I like Gould indoors in a conservative game.

Sit: Seattle Defense – They won’t be shutting out the Cardinals this week. Warner won’t be affected by the noise and has been sacked only 8 times this season (4 coming in one game vs. Colts).

S and P: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens – The Vikes do a pretty good job against the run and on the outside against the WRs. I’d go with Heap in a bind and hope he can continue to make Minnesota’s defense the most fantasy friendly towards tight ends.

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Week 5 Recap:

QB

Start: Kurt Warner – 302 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Sit: Eli Manning – 173 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

S and P: Tom Brady – 215 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

I was expecting a little more from Warner but will gladly take a 300+ and two score day from my QB1. Elijah made the most out of his 10 passes, salvaging his fantasy day for those who made the risky play. Brady missed a few touchdowns but threw for more than 1 TD for the first time since week 1.

RB

Start: Marshawn Lynch – 69 rush yards, 0 TD, 6 rec, 56 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Steven Jackson – 84 rush yards, 0 TD, 2 rec, 25 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: Michael Turner – 97 rush yards, 3 TD

The Bills offense had trouble moving the chains and prevented Lynch from having a nice fantasy day. Jackson was held out of the end zone and fell short of RB1 stats. Michael Turner turned in his best performance of the season and will now try to shed the “only plays well against weak teams” rap.

WR

Start: DeSean Jackson – 1 rec, 1 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Braylon Edwards – 5 rec, 64 rec yards, 1 TD

S and P: Steve Smith – 3 rec, 70 rec yards, 0 TD

All of the signs pointed to a nice day from the Eagles passing attack, however it was Jeremy Maclin cashing in rather than Jackson. I was impressed with Edwards, but fantasy owners need to keep in mind Jerricho Cotchery was limited as well. Steve Smith connected on a long pass play to post modest production.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Buffalo Defense – 6 Points Allowed, 1 Sack, 1 Int,

Sit: John Carlson – 2 rec, 31 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: John Kasay – 1 FGM, 1 XP

The Bills defense was nothing spectacular last week. However, the depleted unit still kept the score down for leagues in which the score matters. Carlson didn’t get in the action as Matt Hasselbeck was tossing the pigskin to his wideouts most of the day. Kasay didn’t double his season totals, but 4 points was better than nothing.

NFL GAMES WEEK 6 (All times EST)

Bye: Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals - 1 p.m.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers - 1 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars - 1 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings - 1 p.m.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints - 1 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 p.m.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs - 1 p.m.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins - 1 p.m.
Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders - 4:05 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks - 4:05 p.m.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots - 4:15 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets - 4:15 p.m.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons - 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers - 8:30 p.m.

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Willie Parker's Return And Goose Eggs

2009-10-14T11:29:00.001-04:00

Rashard Mendenhall has seemingly passed the first fantasy hurdle. Posting two solid performances with an increased workload has earned him more carries in Pittsburgh’s backfield. How many more is still unknown. Willie Parker has watched Mendenhall the past two weeks and knows he needs to get back on the field soon or he will lose his job. In fact, I’d be surprised if Parker does not play this week regardless how his toe feels. Read More

The Steelers face the Cleveland Browns this weekend. Parker, and the casual fantasy owner, realizes Mendenhall is in line for a nice day. The key for Fast Willie is just getting back on the field and letting the coaching staff know he deserves some carries too. Mendenhall owners should think about selling high if the price is right. More likely, you will just have to let the situation play out.

Unfortunately, I think Mendenhall’s time as a premium fantasy option will be suspended following this week. Do not cast him aside. He should get enough carries to remain a useful RB2 in deeper leagues and flex option in shallower formats.

Parker is no sure bet to remain healthy making Mendenhall’s upside appealing to his faithful followers. Parker could come back too quickly from an injury that does have a tendency to linger. Worse, Parker could come back and not be as productive as Mendenhall. At this point, consider Mendenhall a top option against the Browns for week 6 and downgrade him to RB2 status moving forward. If you can afford to stash him on your roster he is an investment that could pay dividends by the time your league’s playoffs begin.

After having a few “trade situations” arise in more than one of my leagues, I felt inspired to discuss the topic further. There is no right or wrong way to trade but there are different approaches. My approach is outlined over on FFToday if you want to take a gander.

The last thing I want to touch on today is how to cope with a goose egg. A handful of players found in starting lineups simply provided little or nothing to their respective owners. Calvin Johnson and Jerricho Cotchery’s day were affected by injury. However, Derrick Mason, Chris Cooley, Randy Moss, DeSean Jackson, Mike Sims-Walker, Dustin Keller and Laveranues Coles dug craters in many lineups. I wasn’t burned as badly as others but you can’t take it too hard. All you can do when managing your team is put your best guys out there and hope for the best. Did you really have a better option? Outside of Coles and Keller everyone else I mentioned should have been in your lineup. It’s unfortunate and unlucky, but it happens.

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Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 5

2009-10-13T11:26:00.001-04:00

Chad Henne played pretty well in his second career start. A MNF performance like Henne’s could be a precursor for more things to come. I commented on Henne in the pre-season as having Derek Anderson circa 2007 potential. One game isn’t enough to prove me right but plenty fantasy owners will be headed out to the waiver wire this week to add a Chad Henne lotto ticket to their roster. Read More

In a quick follow up to my Sunday post, Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy each had six carries. However, several of McCoy’s carries came in the 4th quarter as the Eagles were running out the clock. The Eagles cashed in on some long pass plays that kept their overall time of possession to only 25 minutes. As a result, Westbrook didn’t touch the ball 20 times. Moving forward I would consider Westbrook a nice RB2 who should be a good play more often than not. On a normal day I feel confident he will get his touches. McCoy is a great guy to own with huge upside should Westbrook need to rest.

If there was any doubt about how bad a football club the Oakland Raiders are right now it is gone. Is Ahmad Bradshaw the better fantasy RB on the Giants’ roster? Jacobs is slow and is not running down hill. Bradshaw’s value is rising but Jacobs will still get his carries in this offense.

Speaking of backfield values, Tashard Choice’s situation in Dallas is interesting. Is Choice just having a Mike Bell fantasy contribution or will he stick around? I’m leaning towards a fate similar to Bell’s. Unless Dallas commits to being a running team, Felix Jones’ return to the lineup will return Choice to “handcuff” status.

I have to “insert foot” on the Seahawks this week. I have been hating on Seattle since the pre-season but the performance this weekend was stellar. How much of the offensive success had to do with Jacksonville traveling from the east coast? How much had to do with Sims-Walker being deactivated for the game and limiting the Jags offense? How much of it was Matt Hasselbeck? Let’s see what they do against the Cardinals this week.

Welcome back Michael Turner! Is Turner’s season going to be boom or bust every week? The Falcons came off a bye week and destroyed the 49ers. Can they prevent the Bears from doing the same thing to them?

Andre Johnson is good. Larry Fitzgerald is probably the most common answer to the “Best wide receiver in the NFL right now” question but Johnson is on the same level.

Tom Brady showed improvement. A week ago, he misread the defense and didn’t capitalize on some guys being wide open. This week he made better reads and decisions throwing the ball, however his accuracy was sub-par. It is taking longer than his fantasy owners would like but he is making strides. I fully expect Brady to have a huge second half.

Bears Corner

A week off comes at a pretty good time. The team has a tough opponent in the Falcons this weekend. Extra rest and preparation should help get this team ready to play. Former Northern Illinois standout Michael Turner will be having somewhat of a homecoming as well. I just hope he takes it easy on us!

What happened to Cedric Benson? Maturity might have something to do with it. New scenery was needed and I like Forte but it still hurts seeing Benson’s resurgence this season.

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Reid Extension Would Be Good News For McCoy

2009-10-11T12:00:00.002-04:00

It is looking like Andy Reid will be getting a contract extension soon. Outside of the fact he is one of the game’s best coaches, Reid is the most PPR-friendly fantasy football coach in the NFL. Reid creates dynamic fantasy football players and never gets behind the curve. McNabb and Westbrook alone have helped a slew of fantasy football hopefuls achieve fantasy titles. For his efforts, Reid has a shot to record the 100th win of his head coaching career today. I’ll be pulling for him. Read More

I’ll also be watching LeSean McCoy. McCoy figures to fill Brian Westbrook’s shoes in the not so distant future. If Reid is extended, McCoy stands a good chance at becoming a beast in PPR formats. The Eagles tinkered with a few packages over the bye week by having Westbrook and McCoy in the backfield at the same time. Although the extra playing time certainly can help McCoy’s value this season, I’m interested in what it might mean to his fantasy future.

I expected Westbrook to be carrying the load in 2010 coming into the season but the signs are starting to appear that he may not be that guy. Reid’s willingness to plug in McCoy in special packages tells fantasy owners several promising things.

1. Andy Reid sees the potential. Westbrook’s potential to get hurt and become a non-factor as well as McCoy’s potential to be effective in Reid’s offense. I’m a firm believer in buying guys who get more opportunities than the rest. More touches and targets do not directly translate into fantasy production but they sure have a positive influence on production.

2. Andy Reid trusts McCoy. Most NFL fans have heard commentators talking about a rookie running back’s ability to block in pass protection are the largest obstacle they have to seeing the field in their first year. McCoy is ahead of the curve folks. The former Pitt Panther was playing with the first team while Westbrook recovered from his injuries during the preseason and in week 3. The fact Reid is adding packages with McCoy in mind further illustrates the coach’s faith in him in pass protection.

3. How healthy is Westbrook? There is no doubt Andy Reid choosing to give McCoy carries part of the effort to keep Westbrook healthier as the season progresses. This is why I am most interested in the Philly game today. Westbrook missed the preseason and went 26 carries (before taking a break in week 3. Add another week of rest due to the Eagles’ bye a week ago and you have a running back that is well-rested. Rest is one thing, health is another. Is Westbrook going to have more than 15 touches today? Fantasy owners need Westbrook to be a deciding factor in their lineups going forward this fantasy football season and seeing him get 20+ touches against the Bucs would be a boost to their confidence.

4. Schedule. Philadelphia’s travel in the upcoming weeks is rough. The Eagles go from Oakland in week 6 to Washington in week 7.and then get two tough division games at home before playing four of their next five games on the road. Their fantasy playoff schedule from week 14 on is: @NYG, vs. SF, vs. DEN, and @DAL. A healthy Westbrook can perform against any team but an unhealthy Westbrook might not be as useful to fantasy owners. Even if McCoy takes on more carries, he is playing the same tough schedule. However, if he is to be the featured back in Philly’s offense he needs to show he can play against through a tough schedule. This week should let fantasy owners know if McCoy will be a flex option in the next few weeks while those next few weeks will determining McCoy’s 2010 value.

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Start, Sit, or Squat and Pray - Week 5

2009-10-08T11:46:00.001-04:00

I rebounded with a nice collection of picks in week 4. Scanning this week’s games, there appears to be a lot of one-sided affairs on tap. Even so, that doesn’t make those lineup decisions any easier. Time to roll up the sleeves and see who should be starting for your fantasy team in week 5. Read More

The weather is cooling and three of fantasy football’s best quarterbacks are on a bye week. I’m anticipating a low scoring week from around the league. If that’s the case, you can expect some close games in your fantasy league(s) and that makes this week’s line up decisions crucial.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – The Texans are getting burned by the run thus far (see Johnson, Chris) but make no mistake, Arizona will be throwing the football. Warner and his receivers have had two weeks to prepare for this game and are playing at home.

Sit: Eli Manning, New York Giants – Let’s take a look at what we know. He has an injury to the heel of his plant foot and has never played with this injury before. As a fantasy owner, you just can’t risk plugging him in and having him leave the game after the first quarter.

Squat and Pray: Tom Brady, New England Patriots – The Broncos pass defense is pretty good but Romo made them look better. Brady has two games under his belt against defenses able to pressure the quarterback. The Pats still have a lot of weapons on offense and fantasy owners have to have faith in there early pick this week.

RB

Start: Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – The Browns are giving up over 400 yards a game on defense. They rank dead last in the AFC against the run. The wait is over for Lynch owners this week.

Sit: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – I’m doubling up on sitting running backs against the Vikings. Jackson will be tough to sit, but the Rams are bad and if there is a team that knows what it’s like to have an opponent load up against the run it’s Minnesota.

Squat and Pray: Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons – He has a history of only performing against weak teams and the 49ers defense doesn’t fall under that category after a month of NFL games. Yielding a scant 73.8 yards rushing per contest, San Francisco will be ready for Turner and the Falcons at home.

WR

Start: DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles – Jackson and the Eagles should perform well against a defense that has allowed nine touchdowns through the air and several long passing plays.

Sit: Braylon Edwards, New York Jets – I was busy this week and haven’t had time to chime in on the trade but the Jets are not going to turn into a passing team overnight. He still has stone hands and a half-week to learn the offense.

Squat and Pray: Steve Smith, New York Giants – How can you bench this guy, especially in PPR leagues? You really can’t. I’m worried that Eli won’t be as effective throwing the ball. But I’m even more worried about the Giants having this game in hand early resulting in a heavy dose of the running game.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Buffalo Defense – They are playing at home where the forecast is calling for 10+ MPH winds and a temperature high of 52-degrees. Add in a lowly Browns team and fantasy owners with the Bears, Packers or Chargers defenses have their bye week replacement.

Sit: John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks – I realize he is playing at home, Matt Hasselbeck is likely to play and the Jags rank dead last in the NFL passing yards allowed per game. However, a lot of that is due to them facing Peyton Manning. Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Houshmandzadeh are going to get their share of balls. Fewer targets and less than ideal touchdown potential have me benching him this week.

Squat and Pray: John Kasay, Carolina Panthers – Kasay is probably on your league’s waiver wire and I like the match up. He only has three FGA on the season but could double that this weekend.

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Week 4 Recap:

QB

Start: David Garrard – 323 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 38 rush yards

Sit: Eli Manning – 292 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

S and P: Shaun Hill – 152 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Garrard was great last week as the Jags took advantage of the leaky Titans pass defense. Eli’s numbers were not among the weekly leaders until Hakeem Nicks turned what should have been a moderate gain into a 54-yard touchdown. Those who started Hill were fortunate two get a couple of scores to bail out his fantasy day.

RB

Start: Ronnie Brown – 115 rush yards, 2 TD

Sit: Ryan Grant – 51 rush yards, 4 rec, 50 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: Darren McFadden - -3 rush yards, 1 rec, 5 rec yards, 0 TD

I’ll admit the Brown call was a bit “easy” but I needed to get one right in the worst way. Grant did ok in PPR leagues but otherwise was a disappointment. McFadden injured his meniscus in his last chance to win fantasy owners over this season.

WR

Start: Calvin Johnson – 8 rec, 133 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Santonio Holmes – 4 rec, 52 yards, 0 TD

S and P: Randy Moss – 3 rec, 50 yards, 1 TD

Johnson saw twelve targets but came up just short of the goal line on a couple of receptions and Kevin Smith took advantage. Santonio Holmes watched Rashard Mendenhall like the rest of us. Moss was held to a season-low five targets this past Sunday but did tally his first TD on the season.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Dustin Keller – 3 rec, 31 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Denver Broncos Defense – 10 points allowed, 5 sacks, 1 int, 1 FF

S and P: Dan Carpenter – 1 FG, 5 XP

The Jets’ Mark Sanchez played too poorly for Keller to post solid numbers. Just when I thought Dallas was going to take the ball out of Romo’s hands they let him toss 42 passes. Carpenter walked away with solid eight points if you plugged him as a bye week filler.

NFL GAMES WEEK 5 (All times EST)

Bye: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, San Diego Chargers

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens - 1 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills - 1 p.m.
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers - 1 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions - 1 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs- 1 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants - 1 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles - 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams - 1 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers - 4:05 p.m.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals - 4:15 p.m.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - 4:15 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks - 4:15 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans - 8:20 p.m.

Monday: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins - 8:30 p.m.

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Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 4

2009-10-05T12:26:00.002-04:00

Peyton Manning has been putting up numbers so much that we do not often realize his ridiculous assault on the record books. This guy still has several seasons to go barring injury. In a game that is all about the stats, it’s amazing how many fantasy owners were reluctant to place him in the top 2-including myself. At the end of the day, Manning’s consistency should be worth more to fantasy owners than banking on a stellar season from Brees or Brady. Read More

The Patriots game was exciting and dull to me. Brady stood in the shotgun and either threw a short pass or handed it off on a draw more often than not. Very dull watching this offense. On the other side, Baltimore was doing a little bit of everything but not enough. Ray Rice is a dynamic player in the offense but they do not use him enough. One week they will and he’ll go off to the tune of 200 total yards.

If you are buying Sims-Walker then shouldn’t you be buying Garrard as well? I spoke with a few people and they do not get excited about Garrard yet gush over Sims-Walker. Mr. Garrard has Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee and Kansas City on deck. Excited now?

Going back to what I said last week, there are 12 teams with one or zero wins right now! TWELVE! Out of those teams, six have new coaches. Mike Shannahan, Jon Gruden, Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher are seeing dollar signs by the week.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Romo is not a very good fantasy QB.

Don’t look too much at Darren Sproles’ zero carries and single reception Sunday night. San Diego was playing Pittsburgh and playing from behind at the outset. Tomlinson and Sproles get a bye week and then play the Broncos at home on Monday night in week 6.

Thomas Jones owners should be worried. Whether it is the Jets offensive line or Thomas’ age catching up to him, he isn’t producing and rookie Shonn Greene is getting into the mix. I’m not sure what the value of Leon Washington is right now but I am pretty sure the Jets are going to have to get the ball in his hands more.

I watched Eli Manning throw to Steve Smith this weekend and had two distinct thoughts on him. Sell high in low-performance, touchdown formats and buy in PPR leagues. Brandon Jacobs does not look good. When he just takes the ball and runs downhill he finds the back of his offensive lineman too often. When he tries to find a hole he slows down. Unless he can make some adjustments I’m considering him a RB2.

Bears Corner

Fantasy junkies can thank Lions HC Jim Schwartz for giving them another position to choose next season. I’m pretty sure you’ll be able to find the Detroit training staff on the waiver wire next year!

All kidding aside, I was scared about this game and am thankful to get the ‘W.’ Chicago was fortunate that the Lions struggle to put together four quarters of football on a weekly basis. Forte’s performance was not a surprise and should calm some fantasy panic. Hester left the game making Bennett and Knox worthy of looks in 10-12 team leagues. Cutler’s Elway-esque run into the end zone was a great football play to watch.

Put your feet up Chicago, the Bears can watch their two main rivals slug it out tonight and have a week of rest. A Packers win tonight would knot the division up at 3-1. So this Bears fan will be routing for the Packers in a very rare set of circumstances. Then again, being only one game behind Minnesota (with both head to head games to play) and a game up on the Packers isn’t so bad.

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A Lot At Stake For Moore, Mendenhall

2009-10-03T09:36:00.002-04:00

I had some time this morning so I thought I'd sneak in a quick look at some headlines heading into Sunday's games. Fantasy stakes are high in Pittsburgh's backfield as Mewelde Moore and Rashard Mendenhall are in line for more carries. Read More

Steelers RB Willie Parker is not expected to play against the Chargers Sunday night. Mewelde Moore is worth a flex spot this week. However, Rashard Mendenhall is a risky play. It's a big week for Mendenhall and his supporters like myself. He needs to show more than "something" in this game. He needs to prove he can be the guy in this offense. Here's hoping he knows the plays and holds onto the ball!

Roger Rotter of Fox Sports offers his opinion on some week 4 sleepers.

The best news I can find out of New England. If Welker's knee keeps him out a third week then we are left to draw conclusions about his injury. My assumption is that it;s a bruised knee and every time he works it out it swells up on him. But that's purely speculation on my part.

Roddy White thinks the big plays down the field will start picking up after the bye week. I still think White will struggle to crack the top 10 at his position. Atlanta will get the run going and Tony Gonzalez will continue to eat into White's looks. Going forward it is starting to look like White may become reliant on connecting deep to post top-end fantasy totals. That makes him more inconsistent and unreliable in my eyes and a WR2.

Those of you expecting to play Julius Jones or Nate Burleson this week might want to know that Walter Jones has been ruled out. Even without Dwight Freeney, I love the Colts pass rush against this line and advise fantasy owners to give Indy's defense the start against Seattle.

Those who play in leagues with return yardage can continue to see added production from Bears wideout Johnny Knox.

Jamarcus Russell has hamstrung the Raiders offense. In a year where McFadden should be getting similar treatment to Steven Jackson as Oakland's Mr. Everything head coach Tom Cable continues to stand behind his quarterback. I had high hopes for McFadden coming into the season but unless Russell can complete a pass he is doomed to be a match up play AT BEST. Ughh.

The Packers are having issues along the offensive line. chad Clifton was going to try and play but he had a set back is a game-time decision to protect Aaron Rodgers. I'm not feeling warm and fuzzy about the Packers offense putting up too many points in Minnesota.

I've been critical of Romo and the Cowboys needing to revise their quarterback's role in the offense. Yesterday's headline from dallasnews.com supports my claim: Dallas Cowboys' Romo Could Learn From Bronco's QB Orton.

In a non-fantasy football story, the NFLPA has created a "concussion committee." This is a serious issue that has finally grown feet. I am perplexed by how long it took a professional sports league playing a collision sport like football to make efforts on this topic. Although the NFL commissioned a report to prove concussed players were at higher risk of future health problems, logic could have figured that out. Just goes to show you that TV and revenue are and will always be the NFL's top priority.

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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 4

2009-10-02T13:44:00.001-04:00

My week three choices bombed. Absolutely bombed. I’m okay with having an off week, but I’m starting to wonder if I’ll ever get a RB start to go my way. As I dust myself off, we turn the calendars to October where fantasy owners are faced with their first bye week. It’s Week four and lineup choices are getting tough! Read More

Fantasy owners are given a break from deciding on Westbrook with the Eagles on a bye. However, first round picks Michael Turner, Larry Fitzgerald and DeAngelo Williams have fantasy managers hoping their replacements have nice outings.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – It might not be flashy, but Tennessee has been susceptible against the pass and Sims-Walker is emerging as a nice target.

Sit: Eli Manning, New York Giants – Ok now I’m not benching him over any QB, but I’m not expecting huge fantasy totals from Eli this week. He is on the road at arrowhead with an inexperienced group of receivers.

Squat and Pray: Shaun Hill, San Francisco 49ers – If Hill is a consideration for your lineup this week you are dealing with some injuries or a bye week. The match up looks awfully nice for Hill but it’s equally nice for the running game.

RB

Start: Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – Chad Henne has a full week of practice under his belt, but the Dolphins still have ample reason to employ the wildcat this week.

Sit: Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – He’s been scrappy in posting nice totals thus far but the Vikes run defense is superb and one of the two remaining teams that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

Squat and Pray: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – The Texans have given up more rushing yards than any other team, including 7 scores. Just hope that Michael Bush doesn’t vulture the few touchdown opportunities Oakland gets.

WR

Start: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions – The injury status of Kevin Smith should give Mathew Stafford and the Lions more reason to look Johnson’s way and the Bears don’t have anyone to cover him.

Sit: Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers – I will be extremely surprised if the Chargers do not center their game plan on stopping Holmes. A banged up backfield and the return of Merriman to the lineup should have Roethlisberger under pressure all day.

Squat and Pray: Randy Moss, New England Patriots – starting receivers against the Ravens defense is normally not a great idea, but if Baltimore’s offense continues to put points on the board, you don’t want Moss on your bench in a shootout situation.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Dustin Keller, New York Jets – The Jets will have to throw and Keller will be the target of plenty of Mark Sanchez passes. Red zone looks make him one of the better plays at TE this week.

Sit: Denver Broncos Defense – The defense is improved but they do not match up well against Dallas. With a mammoth offensive line, the Cowboys should be able to plow straight ahead Sunday negating Denver’s fleet-footed defenders.

Squat and Pray: Dan Carpenter, Miami Dolphins – The weather is nice in South Florida and a conservative run-orientated offense could stall a few times providing Carpenter with a couple of FGs.

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Week 3 Recap:

QB

Start: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – 156 pass yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Sit: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – 247 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

S and P: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – 183 pass yards, 1 TD, 0 INT

The shootout that never was translated into weak fantasy totals in Buffalo including Edwards’ paltry effort. Chicago’s turnovers prevented them from ever establishing a lead in the game. Ultimately, Cutler was asked to get the job done for the Bears again and in the end he walked away from Seattle with fine totals. Palmer was able to escape with the win, but his fantasy output was modest at best. Bad week for me at the QB position.

RB

Start: Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins – 42 rush yards, 1 rec, 6 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – 45 rush yards, 2 rec, 3 rec yards, 0 TD

S and P: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – 117 rush yards, 5 rec, 46 rec yards, 0 TD

Portis’ lousy day against the Lions has me baffled. An injured running back with Portis’ skills should be able to produce something against Detroit. Washington is in trouble. McFadden is having trouble getting it going with in inept QB. Jackson’s day was about what you should expect: nice yardage with no touchdowns.

WR

Start: Mario Manningham, New York Giants – 4 rec, 55 rec yards, 0 TD

Sit: Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – 5 rec, 67 rec yards, 1 TD

S and P: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City – Inactive

Manninghamg was targeted 7 times, but the Bucs were so bad the Giants didn’t even need to use the long ball. Two words on Marshall, “wrong again.” Shortly after I posted, Bowe’s status for the weekend was uncertain. Yet it was par for the course on my picks this week.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Bengals Defense – 20 Points Allowed 1 Sack, 1 Int, 1 TD

Sit: Rian Lindell, Buffalo Bills – 0 FG, 1 XP

S and P: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers – 5 rec, 20 rec yards, 0 TD

The Bengals defense cashed in by returning their lone Roethlisberger interception for a touchdown in the third quarter. Woohoo, I was right about the kicker! Lindell never attempted a FG. Miller had 6 targets but didn’t find the end zone. He’ll probably get more love in coming weeks after Sweed’s drops but that doesn’t change his output from last week.

NFL GAMES WEEK 4

Bye: Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, and Carolina Panthers

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears -- 1 p.m.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns -- 1 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans -- 1 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts -- 1 p.m.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars -- 1 p.m.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs -- 1 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots -- 1 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins -- 1 p.m.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins -- 4:05 p.m.
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints -- 4:05 p.m.
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos -- 4:15 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers -- 4:15 p.m.
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers -- 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings -- 8:20 p.m.

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Mixed Vegetables In The Backfield

2009-09-30T12:13:00.001-04:00

One of the hottest topics this week is located in Buffalo, NY. Marshawn Lynch was drafted as a RB2 who would miss a quarter of the season. Fred Jackson was drafted to be decent RB3 for a few weeks. Three weeks have passed and the situation is murkier. Read More

I almost started looking at the numbers to find something to pin my analysis on before I realized it was a fruitless effort. Well, perhaps "fruitless" is not the best term. Regardless, fantasy owners just have to wait and see how the Bills use both backs in the next couple of weeks. You can try to look at the numbers (The Hazean spells it out nicely) but in the end it won't matter.

All I know is that Dick Jauron is a conservative guy who cares more about defense than offense. His team has two talented wide receivers and two talented running backs. The Bills couldn't spread the ball around enough to give Terrell Owens a single reception last week. So what is going to happen when you add another fantasy option to the equation?

Obviously Fred Jackson is the biggest loser in real life, but it shouldn't really hurt his owners too much. Afterall, you drafted the guy hoping he would be in your lineup for three weeks tops and a nice flex option thereafter. Well, I'd say you cashed in pretty good on him, considering he didn't exactly cost too much on draft day. Jackson was and still is a "lease with option to buy" guy.

Lynch is the biggest fantasy loser of this situation. Jackson has earned consistent touches, especially in passing situations. That alone, significantly reduces the value of Lynch in PPR leagues. Lynch was on suspension though, not out with an injury, so he should be able to hit the ground running with little rust. As I said earlier, Lynch owners will have to see how things play out on the field this week. Keep him benched unless you are thin at running back and expect to use him as a flex option in Week 5 at home facing the Browns.

My best guess is the Bills take the mixed veggie approach, mixing them together in a 50/50 plowshare rather than featuring one or the other on the dinner plate.

As for the rest of the gang in Bufflo, I'm avoiding them. I am having serious doubts about anyone in Buffalo being consistent enough to make them worthy of "starter" classification. Unless the variables in the equation decrease, all of Buffalo's players are matchup only fantasy starts.

On the lighter side of things, take a look at this clip of future Hall of Fame linebacker Junior Seau. How many retirees spend the weekend as a guest PBR rodeo clown?

From Michael David Smith at FanHouse: "The bull ran over him but didn't hurt him, and Seau got up laughing.”

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Fantasy Football Market Watch

2009-09-29T13:23:00.001-04:00

I’ve been pushing Brent Celek, Vincent Jackson and Rashard Mendenhall since the preseason and my opinions haven’t changed. Who are the new guys on my radar? Which players am I peddling? Find out in today’s edition of Hobo Soup! Read More

Buy

LenDale White, Tennessee Titans – I was baffled at the lack of faith fantasy owners showed in White after two weeks. So much so that I tried alerting you to add him prior to week three’s games. The window to obtain White as your RB3 for a bargain price is closing. He’s the type of RB you want on your team during the bye weeks when pickings are slim.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions – Most rookie quarterbacks don’t come out throwing four touchdowns a game. Detroit is still a poor team that will be playing from behind. Chances are Stafford will continue to develop, the Lions will be throwing late and Johnson will finish where you expected him to before the season. The only ingredient missing is finding out if Johnson’s owners still have faith after seeing him total 14 targets in Detroit’s past two contests when he posted 13 in the opener.

Steven Hauschka, Baltimore Ravens – Owning the kicker on Baltimore has proved to be a good move more often than not over the years. A new name to fantasy owners, Hauschka will continue to cash in on an offense that has put up more points than every team in the NFL other than the Saints through three weeks.

Delayed Buy: Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – Plant the seed now (just let the Kevin Smith owner know you have an interest should he be willing to deal) and wait until week six to approach Smith’s owners. He hasn’t scored since week 1 and his next three games are tough. A home game against the Steelers is sandwiched between road contests against divisional foes Chicago and Green Bay. By the time he heads into his week 7 bye, his owners are going to be willing to move him. His schedule lightens up a bit after the bye and those touchdowns will return.

Sell

Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos – The cupcakes are over and he has a brutal schedule ahead. I do not think he will continue to get as many touches as he did last week (Buckhalter shouldered 14 carries in the blowout). Find an owner who is wide-eyed over Moreno’s 21 carry, 90 yards rushing and 1 touchdown performance and sell him high.

Santana Moss, Washington Redskins – It just wouldn’t be fantasy football without receiving trade offers for Santana Moss around week four or five. I’m not sure if you will get anyone to bite, but if you ended up with Moss, now is the time to move the inconsistent receiver.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – His performance last night was exactly what the Cowboys need him to do every week. Romo is inconsistent and therefore a less than reliable fantasy passer. I’d rather have Eli Manning or Joe Flacco as my quarterback on a weekly basis.

Delayed Sell: Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – His upcoming schedule should have his value soaring by week 10. However, Green Bay has one of the worst fantasy playoff schedules from week 13 forward. Cash in your chips around week 10 and find a new pony to ride into the playoffs.

Hold

Leon Washington, New York Jets – He is probably not owned in non-PPR formats, but those that drafted him three rounds later than Reggie Bush will still be rewarded. Not too many RB’s entrenched in a RBBC are getting 20 touches a game. Have faith and stay patient.

Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills – After the start Jackson has had, it will be tough for Dick Jauron to keep him benched when Marshawn Lynch returns from his suspension this week. Lynch will eat into his carries, but Jackson should retain a decent amount of value going forward.

Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears – I flirted with putting Olsen in the “sell” column but I remembered all those things that made me love him going into the season. After catching only 4 of 12 balls thrown his way in weeks one and two he snared 4 of 5 and a TD against the Seahawks.

Don’t Touch

Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins – The backup running back on a team that can’t run the ball isn’t going to do much better than the guy he replaces. I’m not sure I’d even want Betts on my team if I owned Portis. There are plenty of other options at equal or lesser value with more upside. News about Portis being injured will cause a slight uptick in his ownership this week; stay on the sidelines.

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – Three touchdowns last week and the buzz around the Jets does not translate into promising fantasy quarterback potential. I realize several QBs are under performing and others are injured but Sanchez will not be a quality option most weeks. Take your chances with a Seneca Wallace, Shaun Hill or Kyle Boller before adding a QB that has been fortunate not to have more INTs and one 200+ yard game under his belt.

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Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 3

2009-09-28T15:12:00.003-04:00

There are a LOT of things to digest after week three’s NFL action. The most glaring observation of the week in my eyes is the amount of BAD teams lining up each week. I can’t remember when there were this many uncompetitive teams playing in a single season. Read More

Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Washington, Oakland, and Cleveland are not very good football teams. Detroit and Kansas City aren’t far behind either. I am starting to think about how many wins the bottom five teams might have collectively…and I’m struggling to give them more than eleven wins. You might see a team win two games and get the 5th pick in the draft if coaches don’t turn things around. Or are those new coaches the ones responsible for the pathetic outings?

I Wonder

If you ever doubted what the most important position in football is, take a look above. See a few leaky QB situations? I do and I wonder if we might see a little bit of a carousel in the coming weeks. Poor play and injuries should have a few quarterbacks on the market. Derrick Anderson, Byron Leftwich, Tyler Thigpen anybody?

No Huddle

The Jets are for real and they haven’t even hit their stride offensively. My gut says Thomas Jones is in full decline but my brain says it’s way too early to throw in the towel on the guy.

The Bears needed another two missed field goals to win. Yikes! The Bucs can’t tackle and that’s kind of a big part of playing football. I hope you chose the under. People are talking about Brett Favre…and it’s about throwing a touchdown pass? What is this world coming to? Truly a great play, I just can’t believe the 49ers let it happen.

Are the Broncos for real? That win against Cincy is looking better and better. Raise your hand if you played against Drew Brees? You might want to consider PowerBall this week. If you are a commissioner and haven’t collected league fees from the owners of Clinton Portis, Matt Forte or Ladanian Tomlinson you might want to move that up the “to do” list. Ok McNabb owners, now what? You’ve managed solid production from Kevin Kolb but Philly has a bye week so it’s time to turn to plan C. Choose wisely.

Bears Corner

Chicago’s fate always seems to be determined by their opponent and that’s not a good thing. Sure they have played well enough the past two weeks to win, but they have yet to go out and win a football game. Week one they lost the game, weeks two and three their opponents lost the game. Needless to say I’m an unimpressed Bears fan who is hoping we can improve on the fly.

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Why Week 3 Matters And Go Get Lendale!

2009-09-25T04:00:00.070-04:00

Two weeks into the season there are some surprises. Taking a closer look at some of those surprises reveals whether fantasy owners should buy into the early season numbers or cast them aside as statistical outliers. Increasing your awareness heading into week three just might help position yourself for the rest of the season. Read More

I want to start out this post by directing your attention to a great post by FFToday's T.J. Thomas, that not only provides fantasy owners with "touch" stats but also illustrates the merit of "touches" to a fantasy football owner. I'm going to highlight a couple of things from T.J.'s The All-Out Blitz - Vol. 2 here but I encourage everyone here to give it a read.

Touches equal opportunity in fantasy football. It's that simple. Fill your roster with the most opportunity to produce and you will produce more points more often than not. However, knowing the quality of these touches is even more important. Notice Marques Colston and Vincent Jackson have averaged 7 touches a game thus far. Hardly, the beefy numbers of Carolina's Smith or New England's Moss, but these receivers are posting great numbers and finding the end zone. An uptick in touches would greatly enhance their value. On the other hand, players who are posting nice fantasy totals AND are amongst those receiving more touches are vulnerable to seeing their fantasy production decline if the touches do not remain consistent. As we head into week three keep your list of touch and target leaders handy because having a third game of data becomes the first meaningful statistical reference guide of the 2009 fantasy football season!

For example, I am going to be keying in on Dallas Clark. I had him rated as the #1 TE in PPR leagues heading into the season. Anthony Gonzalez' injury aside, Clark saw his touches increase from 6 to 8 last week. The difference between averaging 6 and 8 touches per game is roughly 30 receptions and 250 yards on the season for a TE. Clark's week three tally is not going to cement his future production, but it will provide a more accurate reflection of his fantasy potential moving forward. If he ends week three with 5 touches I'm far more likely to forget about his performance on Monday night. However, a final line of 8 or more touches for Clark in week 3 and I'm feeling confident he will deliver to the expectations I placed on him. You can apply this same logic and reasoning to most players. That's why week three has a little more meaning than the first couple of weeks. It's evulation week so everyone grab their pen and pencils, there is homework for week 4! Remember what T.J. said to open his article, "Once is an accident, twice is a pattern, three times is a trend."

I thought I'd include some of my buy low targets to finish off this post. I'll be coming out with something more detailed post soon, but for now this will have to do.

Guys I am Buying Low:

#1 LenDale White - Fantasy owners are dropping this guy already! Seriously, you mean to tell me a guy with double digit touchdown potential is being cast aside like stale potato chips? The weather will get colder, sloppier and ultimately more condusive for running. The low carries total can be attributed to playing the Steelers and not being Chris Johnson last week. Did you really expect Jeff Fisher to take Chris Johnson out after he dismantled the Texans? White's carried will increase and Tennessee's red zone trips will increase.

#2 Darren Sproles - How can this guy be a buy low? Because tons of fantasy owners out there still beleive Ladanian Tomlinson is an elite fantasy RB who is only a week away from returning. Sproles is a flex option every week regardless of of LT's injury status. And I'm willing to bet Tomlinson isn't at full health come fantasy playoff time.

#3 Joe Flacco - Matt Ryan got most of the love last season, but Flacco is showing some serious signs of development. This guy is going to put up decent fantasy production in bad weeks and good production against favorable opponents. An inexpensive backup who could end up saving your season is a sound investment in the early weeks of a fantasy football year.

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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 3

2009-09-24T13:03:00.001-04:00

Mario Manningham goes from waiver wire fodder to your starting lineup in a blink of an eye. The Patriots can’t find the end zone. Neither can the Redskins! What does the NFL’s third week of action have in store for fantasy owners? Read More

Week 2 had its share of duds and studs. I did fairly well but am 0-2 on my RB Start. I’m optimistic I can turn it around this week. But if there is a weakness in my picks, don’t say I didn’t warn ya.

Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

QB

Start: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – The Bills face Drew Brees’ aerial assault at home and that means it’s time to flex the muscles of the passing game in an effort to keep pace.

Sit: Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Are there really any horrible plays this week? Seattle is never an easy place to play, the Bears should be able to run the ball and Cutler shouldn’t have to throw the ball too much to win.

Squat and Pray: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – If the Bengals watched the Bears last week they will take to the air against their division rivals.

RB

Start: Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins – Portis owners didn’t get the nice fantasy day they were hoping last week, but I have a feeling that package will be FedEx’ed to Detroit this week. Better late than never, right!

Sit: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – As I stated in my BOXCAR Blitz post this week, the Raiders have issues and Denver’s defense is playing well.

Squat and Pray: Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – I’d try to find another option if possible but it’s hard to sit Jackson at home. Plug him in there and hope for the best.

WR

Start: Mario Manningham, New York Giants – The Bucs are without their two starting safeties and are yielding big plays and touchdowns through the air.

Sit: Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – Kyle Orton and Nnamdi Asomugha. Need I say more?

Squat and Pray: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City – the guy throwing him the ball might change at halftime, but Bowe should get plenty of looks if you have to start him

TE, DEF, K

Start: Bengals Defense – It’s a thin limb but the conditions seem right. Playing at home against a team with limited offensive weapons and a quarterback who likes to take sacks. Don’t start them over superior units, but the opportunity for fantasy production is present.

Sit: Rian Lindell, Buffalo Bills – The Bills will need touchdowns not FGs to win this game. Additionally, the Saints offense could be up by two touchdowns in the first quarter leaving Dick Jauron little reason to settle for field goals.

Squat and Pray: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers – Just when you think this guy is going to crack the top five at his position you see a TD go to some guy named Spaeth. Cross your fingers and hope Miller gets the call this week.

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Week 2 Recap:

QB

Start: Kurt Warner – 243 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
Sit: Jason Campbell – 242 pass yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
S&P: Brett Favre – 155 pass yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

Warner was accurate all day, completing 24 of 26 passes in route to nice fantasy numbers. Campbell with a favorable matchup put up below average fantasy totals. If you rolled the dice with Favre you came out okay. Playing for the Vikings, Favre will not be asked to throw the ball around unless needed, but he still managed to put adequate points last week.

RB

Start: Jamal Lewis – 38 rush yards, 1 rec, 8 rec yards
Sit: Julius Jones – 11 rush yards, 3 rec, -2 rec yards
S&P: Matt Forte – 29 rush yards. 5 rec, 33 rec yards

The touches were there for Lewis, but so was the Broncos defense. Not only did Jones bust in Week 2, he left the door open for Justin Forsett to earn more carries. Nobody runs on the Steelers but Forte ran hard and got more involved in the passing game.

WR

Start: Steve Smith 8 rec, 131 rec yards, 0 TD
Sit: Nate Burleson – 4 rec, 46 rec yards, 0 TD
S&P: Bernard Berrian – 6 rec, 46 rec yards, 0 TD

Smith was targeted 15 times but didn’t find the end zone. Nate Burleson turned out to be a bad play, especially with Hasselbeck leaving with a rib injury. Berrian’s six targets are about what he will average this season but I thought he would connect on at least one touchdown pass.

DEF, K, TE

Start: Lawrence Tynes – 4 FGM, 3 XP
Sit: Owen Daniels – 6 rec, 72 rec yards, 1 TD
S&P: Philadelphia Eagles – 48 Points Allowed, 2 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 Safety

Tynes was the best call of the week. Cashing in on NYG’s inability to score in the red zone, Tynes should continue to have plenty of field goal opportunities. Daniels was part of the unforeseen performance through the air from Schaub and the Texans. Meanwhile the Eagles defense did all it could against Mr. Brees.

WEEK 3 – NFL GAMES – All Times Eastern

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens -- 1 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals -- 1 p.m.
Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions -- 1 p.m.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings -- 1 p.m.
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles -- 1 p.m.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 1 p.m.
Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams -- 1 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots -- 1 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans -- 1 p.m.
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills -- 4:05 p.m.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks -- 4:05 p.m.
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets -- 4:15 p.m.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders -- 4:15 p.m.
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers -- 4:15 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals – 8:20 p.m.
Monday: Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -- 8:30 p.m

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Playing Super Mario In Week 3?

2009-09-23T12:35:00.001-04:00

Two weeks in the books means fantasy owners are now reflecting on their rosters. Waiver wire adds, trade offers and injury reports are becoming more and more important as each fantasy football owner tries to shore up their team in time for the bye weeks. To help you along I thought a nice humnp-day edition of the BOXCAR Blitz would help ease you into the weekend ahead. Read More

If you have never checked out FFToday.com you need to ASAP (preferably after reading the rest of this post). The place is chocked full of useful stat-based information. At this time of year and moving forward, trends start to develop such as how many fantasy points defenses yield to each position. You get the typical waiver wire add and start/sit advice mixed in with great fantasy football analysis. I am a contributor to the site but I feel the content is best single stop source for fantasy football advice on the web.

I’m not a big fan of owning players on rebuilding teams. The culture just isn’t the same. That’s why I cooled on Larry Johnson right before the season started and why I avoided Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel in every draft. This video of Todd Haley only reinforces my sentiments. It’s one thing when the coach says ‘we need to improve’ or ‘we need to do a better job.’ But when the head coach talks about the progress his quarterbacks are making it clearly reveals the rebuilding atmosphere. I want my fantasy players performing, not progressing.

With Yahoo’s Brad Evans now talking him up, the buzz around Rashard Mendenhall is erasing any potential discounts. I’m expecting him to be a nice match up RB2/flex type by mid-season and a difference maker in the fantasy playoffs.

I realize Mario Manningham is a popular add this week, FF Librarian likes him too, but is he a good start against Tampa Bay? The Bucs were torched on long plays in the Dallas game and failed to prevent Trent Edwards from throwing a touchdown pass. Bruno Boys ranks Manningham at 21 in their weekly positional rankings. CBS Sports projects 5 receptions for 81 yards. Chances are, if you just picked him up, your team isn’t deep at WR so feel good about putting in your lineup this week. For more insight into the Giants’ receiving core check out this Q and A with WR Steve Smith.

Marion Barber’s quad injury should have had every fantasy football GM heading to the wire to scoop up Tashard Choice. The Cowboys play on Monday night but it’s safe to say they will want to continue to dominate the ground game. Regardless of whether MBIII is able to go, Choice should see increased touches. In case you forgot, Choice was solid during the 2008 fantasy football playoff stretch.

If you are a casual football fan or just want to know a little more about Eagles TE Brent Celek, Chris McPhereson (philadelphiaeagles.com) wrote about him yesterday.

The Raiders lost OT Robert Gallery last week and face a Bronco’s defense this week that has been surprisingly good thus far. Combined with the poor efforts of JaMarcus Russell, and injuries to Chaz Chilens and Johnny Lee Higgins, I’d park RB Darren McFadden on the bench for Week 3.

Lastly, I encourage everyone to show some BOXCAR love and take a look at Art of the Fan. Looking for a perfect gift for the fantasy football geek in your life or an alternative to a league trophy? Pick up a few fantasy sports inspired T-Shirts and help support a BOXCAR Football sponsor!

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Fantasy Football Hangover – Week 2

2009-09-21T11:43:00.001-04:00

Week two has left many a fantasy owner hung over this morning. Big day’s from Gore and Chris Johnson, lousy production from the Pats and unexpected returns from quarterbacks Schaub, Rivers, Palmer and Kolb have everyone scurrying to see how their fantasy squads fared this week. Read More

The Giants and Bears capped the two biggest wins of the week. No disrespect to the Jets or Texans, who posted quality wins themselves, but the Bears took out the defending champs and the Giants played spoiler in a hostile environment. However, it was the fantasy production that I found most interesting.

Take a look back at my Jacobs vs. Barber article and compare it to what we saw last night. Dallas is a running football team and if they want to win games they will favor the run more as the season progresses. Romo is an average fantasy quarterback, best used in a platoon with another average option. Brandon Jacobs’ ability to run the ball inside the 10 and score touchdowns is what made him so great a year ago. But their not getting it down close and I’m not sure they will. With modest yardage, Jacobs is on the verge of becoming a RB2. The Giants don’t want to count on Eli’s arm every week, but fantasy owners in PPR leagues should feel good about Steve Smith and Mario Manningham as flex options in 12+ team leagues. In PPR leagues, Smith is the better choice, while Manningham is likely the better red zone target in other formats.

Heading to Chicago it seems apparent that the Bears will air it out against stout run defenses. With average receivers, Cutler is not likely to post huge fantasy totals this year and I’d recommend shopping him. Forte will be fine, chalk this game up to a tough matchup and don’t ever take him out of your lineup. The rain helped, but Pittsburgh is not a great source of fantasy production. Holmes remains a nice WR2 but the RBBC will make Pittsburgh’s running backs below average plays moving forward. I still like Mendenhall as a buy low option and believe he will eventually earn 15 touches a game this season.

In other action…

Count me in as someone who is hopping on the Joe Flacco bandwagon. McGahee is flourishing in a new limited role that keeps him fresh and the passing game is moving the chains resulting in more red zone appearances. I want their kicker and Flacco is a nice QB2. Fantasy managers hoping Ray Rice would breakout are left with some bad bait.

McFadden owners were saved by a late TD. Chilens is at least another week away but it won’t matter if Russell is wallowing away under center.

The Eagles will get plenty of headlines this week but my conclusions following week two are: Westy isn’t an elite back anymore, DeSean Jackson is a quality WR2 and Brent Celek is a top 10 TE capable of finishing ahead of Tony Gonzalez this year.

Carson Palmer and Cedric Benson are becoming reliable fantasy options.

Kyle Orton throws for over 250 yards and Brandon Marshall nets only 34 receiving yards. Orton needed to toss up 37 passes, completing only 51 percent of them, to achieve these totals. Not good for Marshall owners.

Along with Steve Smith and Vincent Jackson, I recommended Greg Camarillo in my pre-season Targeting Sleeper WRs post. The Dolphins are playing in front of a national audience tonight and everyone will see Camarillo. He’s not the next Jerry Rice but a serviceable WR3 in 12+ team leagues. If you didn’t get Laurent Robinson or Mario Manningham, Camarillo isn’t a bad option.

Tonight’s game is big for Joseph Addai owners. Already losing some playing time to Donald Brown, his value could take a huge hit with a lackluster performance in MNF.

Bears Corner

This game was a measuring test to see if the Bears were a good club still able to contend or one staring 8-8 in the face. They played well enough to win and needed some help from Jeff Reed, but in the end Cutler made enough plays. Although Forte ran tough, Pittsburgh was tough against the run. The receivers are hardly elite. However, they showed progress this week.

The Bears don’t win this game without Cutler. It’s as simple as that. I was hoping for 1-1 after these tough opening games and that’s where they are. Continued improvement is a priority, but with a weaker schedule than most NFL teams, the Bears have a realistic shot at the playoffs.

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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 2

2009-09-17T13:45:00.003-04:00

The second weekend on the pro gridiron has a slew of interesting games. Fantasy owners now have a week of meaningful production to analyze before setting their lineups. Are Matt Forte owners actually considering benching their top pick against the Steelers? Read More

There are plenty of good games on the docket this week as we prepare for week two in the NFL. Let’s take a look at some of fantasy’s tougher lineup options in this week’s Start Sit or Squat and Pray!

Quarterbacks

Start: Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals – This guy needs to be in your lineup as long as he is healthy. Another week should allow receivers Boldin and Breaston to recover from nagging injuries. With RB Tim Hightower emerging as a legit pass-catching threat out of the backfield Warner is surrounded by quality options.

Sit: Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins – There are not many tough calls at the QB positions this week. However, if you are thinking about trotting Jason Campbell out there as a replacement for Donovan McNabb…let’s just say I’m not optimistic. The match up is there, but keep in mind Rams HC Tony Sparano knows the NFC East pretty well having previously been the Giants’ defensive coordinator. The ‘skins should have enough success on the ground to limit the need for Campbell to throw the ball in this game.

Squat and Pray: Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings – I expect the Lions to sell out against the run and try to make Favre beat them. Favre should be able to make the quick reads and should have WR Bernard Berrian fully healthy.

Running Backs

Start: Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns – Playing on the road in Denver isn’t an easy task but if you are looking for a flex guy this week give Lewis some love. The Browns should give him plenty of touches and there is a good chance he’ll get some carries inside the five this week.

Sit: Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks – Please don’t let last week go to your head. Although it is certainly encouraging to see Jones produce, the 49ers just finished bottling up Arizona’s rushing attack.

Squat and Pray: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears – A consensus top-five fantasy pick this pre-season, Forte faces arguably the toughest rush defense on the planet. Unless you built your fantasy football team around running backs and have two other quality starters, you have little choice but to plug Forte in and hope for the best.

Wide Receivers

Start: Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers – The Panthers believe in their quarterback and the Falcons secondary is hardly stellar. I fully expect the Panthers to rally behind Delhomme and expect him to get into a rhythm early with Smith.

Sit: Nate Burleson, Seattle Seahawks – My distaste for the Seattle offense may be leading to a biased point of view but I’m not buying Burleson. In an offense that is going to produce a limited amount of passing production, he is fighting Houshmandzedah and TE Carlson for targets.

Squat and Pray: Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings – As I noted above, I like Favre’s chances of posting some good numbers this week. Berrian has been practicing fully in practice and should be a nice WR3 or flex option this week.

TE, DEF, K

Start: Lawrence Tynes, New York Giants – It’s Sunday night primetime, it’s a divisional game and I doubt Tom Coughlin will be as confident in his club’s chances to go for it on fourth down.

Sit: Owen Daniels, Houston Texans – In six career games against Tennessee Daniels has only two touchdowns. Don’t fret, there should be several appealing tight tends to choose from on your league’s waiver wire.

Squat and Pray: Philadelphia Eagles DEF – The spotlight has been on Delhomme’s struggles but few people are shedding light on how good this unit looked last week. You can’t like your chances going up against Drew Brees and company, but you also have to like the potential for interceptions if he makes a bad read under pressure.

WEEK 2 – NFL GAMES – All Times Eastern

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons -- 1 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions -- 1 p.m.
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers -- 1 p.m.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs -- 1 p.m.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles -- 1 p.m.
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins -- 1 p.m.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans -- 1 p.m.
New England Patriots at New York Jets -- 1 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars -- 1 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills -- 4:05 p.m.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers -- 4:05 p.m.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears -- 4:15 p.m.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos -- 4:15 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers-- 4:15 p.m.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys -- 8:20 p.m.

Monday: Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins -- 8:30 p.m.

Week 1 Recap

I made two bad calls in White and Cooley. I knew White was a gamble heading in but sometimes you have to take a chance. The Bengals weak showing was also a surprise to me.

QB

Start: Carson Palmer – 247 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT
Sit: Matt Schaub – 166 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
SandP: Tony Romo – 353 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT

Palmer completed over 63% of his passes despite Coles’ four drops. A couple of costly interceptions prevented him from having a quality fantasy start. Schaub was under fire all day long and was fortunate to come away healthy. All three of Romo’s touchdown passes came on plays over 40 yards and he failed to complete 60% of his passes.

RB

Start: LenDale White – 28 yards rushing, 1 rec for 5 yards rec. 0 TD
Sit: Larry Johnson – 20 yards rushing, 1 rec for 6 yards rec., 0 TD
SandP: Darren McFadden – 93 total yards, 0 TD

The boldness of the White call came back to haunt me as he failed to deliver a touchdown plunge. LJ owners should be worried, but he’ll improve on his 1.8 ypc and 12 touches going forward. McFadden was named the starter with Fargas nicked up and his 19 touches against the Chargers made him a decent RB2 choice despite the vultured touchdown by Bush.

WR

Start: Vincent Jackson – 5 rec, 56 yards, 1 TD
Sit: Gaints WRs – Smith 6 rec, 80 yds, Manningham 3 rec, 58 yards, 1 TD
SandP: Greg Jennings – 6 rec, 106 yards, 1 TD

Jackson is one of the better touchdown threats at wideout. I was expecting more but this performance was nice WR2 output. Smith should lead this team in targets and receptions but Eli will spread the ball around-especially inside the red zone. The Bears held Jennings in check most of the night before the 50-yard touchdown gaffe.

DEF, K, TE

Start: Minnesota – 20 points allowed, 5 sacks, 1 INT
Sit: Cooley – 7 rec, 68 yards, 1 TD
SandP: Graham – 0 FG, 1 XP

Minnesota did not dominate the Browns but did post respectable numbers. Cooley proved me wrong and hauled in a nice touchdown. A botched snap and a couple of interceptions cost the Bengals some scoring chances.

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Football Spikes: Waiver Wire Gold Rush

2009-09-15T11:51:00.002-04:00

Fantasy owners far across the nation are panning for fantasy gold on the waiver wire today. Before you stake a claim in Justin Gage, I have a few thoughts to consider in the first ever Football Spikes. Read More

Football Spikes are like slant routes-quick-hitters to keep the chains moving as we plug away at the 2009 fantasy football campaign.

Finding waiver wire gold is much about luck and timing than anything. Having a need to fill forces owners to scan the pool of players. The hard part is dealing with a roster you believe is pretty solid moving into week 2. You like what you have but you also don't want to miss out on the next great fantasy football claim. Worse, you don't want someone else dramatically improving their fantasy squad by adding a guy for nothing. Here are a few of my opinions on the flavors of the week.

WR Justin Gage - Add only if you are in a 12+ league and need depth. By the time your WRs are on a bye week, someone else will be just as good on the wire to plug in.

RB Julius Jones Ok so he is probably only on the wire in 10-team leagues but I just need to make a public service announcement here: SELL SELL SELL! Got it? good.

WR Mario Manningham Deep leagues leave fantasy owners with limited options on the wire so guys like Manningham get some love. Like Gage above, if you need depth to cover an early bye week he is an option. Manningham has the size Manning likes and would have had a TD if Manning wasn't hurried on the play.

TE Ben Watson The TE position is deep. Brady will spread the ball around. He will score, but there are so many TEs on that team fantasy owners are kidding themselves if you think you can get consistent production from Watson this year. I'd rather have the next guy...

TE John Carlson The kid is good but the offense played the Rams folks. If you want to make a change at your TE spot, Carlson is a good option but I'm betting the guy you are dropping isn't too bad either.

WR Patrick Crayton Tempting isn't it? Every year it seems Crayton makes a big play for a score and fantasy owners circling the waiver wire can't turn away. I'd rather take my chances with a Devery Henderson making a long TD grab each week than Crayton.

QBs Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick I'd stay away unless your QB position is in bad shape. Kolb, not Vick, is the guy to add if you choose to go down this road. Kolb isn't great, but he has Trent Edwards-like fantasy upside. There is enough around him to salvage a few starts should you have to lean on him over the next week or two. Keep Vick in the kennel.

One last thing. If RB Rashard Mendenhall has been dropped in your league, scoop him up. It might not happen overnight, but I still think Mendenhall will be in fantasy lineups by the second half of the season.

If you liked this post and are looking for more insight into the waiver wire pickups of the week I suggest taking a look at The Hazean's Fast Starting Fantasy Players To Monitor as well.

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Fantasy Football Hangover - Week 1

2009-09-14T11:50:00.001-04:00

A couple of things really stood out from the first Sunday of the 2009 NFL season. Drew Brees’ touchdown passes should not be a big shocker, nor should AP’s dominance. Schaub took a few hits and actually stayed on the field, but that’s not what really caught my eye. Read More

I have to start in Carolina. The Panthers are in trouble. Williams is a running back you can count on this season and Stewart seems healthy enough to be a positive factor in your fantasy lineup. However, the lack of a passing attack could seriously deflate the fantasy ceiling not only of Steve Smith, but the running backs as well.

Speaking of that Philly game, McNabb is an injury liability so you should have an adequate backup. I was surprised Westbrook had as many touches in the second half as he did. Getting a few extra yards might be good for a few more points but not if he is on the sidelines when your fantasy playoffs come to town. Regardless if you own Westy, McCoy s a nice guy to own moving forward.

The Bengals shocked me. I almost took Cincy in several knockout pools and thought better of it. Maybe I am drinking too much Palmer Kool-Aid, but this was a lackluster effort by the Bengals. Denver had no right even being in this game let alone keeping the Bengals out of the end zone. Bad snaps on field goals, interceptions instead of touchdowns…Cincinnati should be a better provider of fantasy production than they were last night.

Ray Rice had 22 touches but failed to score. Get used to more of this as McGahee settles into more of a short yardage role with the team.

How many people got burned by the Cards this week? First Boldin might not play and fantasy owners everywhere forgot that Breaston himself wasn’t 100% coming into the opener. Then word comes late that Breaston is inactive. Fantasy madness everywhere, or maybe not in your neck of the woods but I’m sure it burned a few people.

The injury with the most fantasy impact may just be Anthony Gonzalez. A lot of owners invested highly in the young receiver and now have a hole in their starting lineup. On the flip side, how about Bucs’ rebuilt Caddy? I’m not sure what his value is amongst your fantasy peers but that kind of production can only help his cause to get more carries.

In one of my leagues I waited too long on a defense and found myself knee deep in playing match ups out of the gate. As a result, my last picks in that draft were Seattle and Washington. If you are streaming defenses and looking for a team to pick on I suggest looking up Rams’ opponents.

Bear’s Corner (As a Bears fan I need a small outlet to voice my opinions)

Two main things come to mind after that game last night. 1) The Bears have the talent to win. 2) Talent doesn’t mean squat.

All you had to do is look at Jay Cutler moments before the Bears would receive the kickoff after squandering their lead late in the fourth quarter. Cutler, his team having just driven down the field to take the lead on their last possession, was standing with his arms folded and a blank stare on his face. Where is the leadership? Why wasn’t he talking to his receivers, backs, coordinators, anyone about how to get the ball down the field without any timeouts? Cutler failed to rally the troops when they needed him to lead. The end result was yet another miscue and the end of the game. The Bears have talent-enough to overcome mistakes. They lacked leadership last night. Cutler and the Bears coaching staff lost Urlacher for the season and cost themselves a divisional win. Bears fans can only hope it didn’t cost us a division title.

As for tonight's games, I haven't heard anything concrete, but I think Welker will play

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Let's Get This Fantasy Football Season Started!

2009-09-13T09:37:00.006-04:00

We were given a football appetizer on Thursday and Santonio Holmes gave fantasy football owners a lot of points on a lot of benches. Furthermore, Justin Gage became the first unofficial hot add of the week while top pick RB Chris Johnson failed to deliver. Yep, it's here and it's Sunday. Hold on tight and let's get this thing started. With the season underway a few content changes will be made here on BOXCAR Football. Read More

BOXCAR Football has grown a good amount since starting back on August 1st. As the word gets out, readership continues to grow. I appreciate those who have stopped by and look forward to the next phase of the fantasy football season. As such, the evolution of BOXCAR Football continues...

I am planning on writing up a Monday post labeled 'Fantasy Football Hangover.' This post is a holdover from my previous fantasy football blogging and will highlight some of my observations from the past weekend. Varying fantasy topics and strategy will be touched and I will also pass a few Monday Night Football notes along whenever possible. If my schedule does not allow me to get the post done on Monday, you should look for it on Tuesday.

The rest of the week is not as concrete. At this point, Hobo Soup, BOXCAR Blitz, and Fantasy Football & A Movie, will continue at my discretion. I cannot provide a specific weekly outline, but readers can expect at least one of these posts to be made each week. I have other ideas for posts should anyone become interested in contributing to BOXCAR Football.

Between the longer, meatier posts of the week will be shorter posts. Football Spikes, will reveal basic information and strategy on a fantasy football relevant topics, including my opinions and insights. The main focus of these types of posts are to keep my readers informed during the week when I cannot devtte the time to a longer, researched article.

Feedback is welcomed and encouraged. BOXCAR Football aims to be a fun informed source of fantasy football advice, strategy and analysis. I look forward to being in the trenches with you throughout the 2009 fantasy football season!

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Start, Sit or Squat and Pray - Week 1

2009-09-09T12:15:00.001-04:00

Week 1 lineup choices can be tricky. Pre-season games tell us very little, resulting in very little concrete direction towards player’s values. Furthermore, fantasy owners cannot simply assume the same porous run and pass defenses of 2008 will be susceptible to more damage this season. Read More

Tennessee and Pittsburgh kick things off on Thursday night and with that comes the fantasy football season’s first lineup submissions. I’m hoping to feature a Start, Sit or Squat and Pray post every Thursday or Friday throughout the season. Time constraints may prevent me from doing this, but the plan of attack is to highlight a few guys at each position who may pose tougher decisions to their fantasy owners. There are plenty of other places to get weekly rankings and projections so I’m only going to focus on a few guys each week.

The best thing you can do in week 1 is look back at your pre-season rankings. Don’t try to get cute playing match ups and don’t automatically assume the Chiefs will yield 200 yards on the ground. When in doubt, dance with the lady you brought to the dance in week 1!

Quarterbacks

START: Carson Palmer – If you selected Palmer to be your starter, don’t be afraid trotting him out there against the Broncos. Denver’s defensive unit has not played too many games together and more importantly; Palmer’s elbow is healthy.

SIT: Matt Schaub – Do you really want to take a chance at playing an injury prone quarterback who isn’t fully healed from his previous injury? I sure wouldn’t feel good about it and neither should you.

SQUAT and PRAY: Tony Romo – I’m a little worried Romo may try to do too much in the opening weekend of the season. Forcing the ball to Witten and Roy Williams could spell disaster against the sound Bucs defensive unit.

Running Backs

START: LenDale White – Pittsburgh is the type of opponent you typically avoid starting your RBs against but in this case I’m feeling good about White. There should be plenty of short yardage situations and White is the best bet to tally a TD.

SIT: Larry Johnson – I’m not sure the Ravens defense will be quite as effective as they have been in recent years, but I’d like to see how the Chiefs offense performs in the wake of Chan Gailey’s departure-especially Johnson’s touches.

SQUAT and PRAY: Darren McFadden – I’m not optimistic about playing him in one of my leagues, but the touches should be there in the end. As I said earlier, sometimes you have to just review your rankings and realize you drafted McFadden to be in your starting lineup, not on the bench.

Wide Receivers

START: Vincent Jackson – Oaktown’s franchise cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha, will be playing this game with a soft cast on his hand. This should make it even easier for Jackson to get down the field and win jump balls.

SIT: Giants WRs – Until someone emerges in the passing game, there is no reason to start a Giants wide receiver. An improved Washington defense only makes this decision easier.

SQUAT and PRAY: Greg Jennings – The Bears are healthier in the secondary and although some switches at the safety position might cause a couple of hiccups, Jennings doesn’t have the elite size or speed to take full advantage. Add in an improved pass rush and I’m seeing a very mediocre outing.

TE/DEF/Kickers

START: Minnesota – The Vikings will have their big guys in the middle and that means, little room for Jamal Lewis. Plenty of three and outs and a few turnovers are on the menu for Eric Mangini’s new club.

SIT: Chris Cooley – The Giants’ pass rush is among the best in the league and Cooley will be needed to help with pass protection. Additionally, Jason Campbell has a 78.8 passer rating in four career starts against New York.

SQUAT and PRAY: Shayne Graham – Cincy’s improved offense should be able to score plenty of points at home against Denver this week. Graham has been sitting out with a sore groin but has been given the nod to start the season opener.

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Jacobs Versus Barber

2009-09-08T13:08:00.001-04:00

As we approach the final days of draft season I'm moving a few guys up my board. The biggest factor in my late bump is touchdowns. Sure there are performance leagues and PPR leagues but in the end, touchdowns are fantasy gold. Taking a look at the '09 fantasy football landscape I see fewer and fewer TD machines. Read More

Much of today's decrease in individual TD numbers can be attributed towards the RBBC. We haven't seen this much evolution in the individual running game since Mike Alstott was carrying defenders into the end zone. The game has changed and fantasy owners need to adapt.

Steve Slaton and Chris Johnson have huge potential, but I've been pushing them down in almost every draft over the past two weeks. I'm scared. Yep, that's right. I am absolutely scared of investing a top 15 pick in either of these two guys because as much as I love their chances of churning out quality yards, I can't get excited about their chances of finding pay dirt consistently. Maybe I'm just looking for reasons to justify the fact I haven't been able to land one on any team thus far. Or maybe it's because waking up on Monday morning to find 150 total yards and 0 TDs makes my coffee taste a little bitter.

Have you ever eaten fish and had a small bone stab the roof of your mouth or tongue? It puts a damper on your whole meal and makes you scan your plate and remaining fish for more tiny harpoons. You might get the same feeling if you select a player with limited TD potential.

And so I'm torn walking the fine line between smart yardage plays and maulers almost certain to be injured as they are to score double digit TDs. I'm not talking about the choice between AP, MJD and Forte at the top of the draft. I'm talking about the second through fourth round guys that fill out the core of your fantasy squad.

I'm talking Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber.

(Now before I go on I should tell you that I am surrounded by Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants fans. I have no stake in the rivalry but I've heard enough about each team's prospects of winning the Super Bowl over the past month it got me thinking...)

I liked Marion Barber going into 2008. Notice I said liked not loved. I didn't get him in any league and watched injuries derail his season. In the process I saw talent from other Cowboy running backs, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. And now, sitting here only days away from NFL 09 I'm seeing more 2008 Giants in the 2009 Cowboys. I'm also seeing more 2008 Cowboys in the 2009 Giants. Yeah, I had to scratch my head too! Here me out here.

The Giants of 08 mauled opponents using a three-headed running attack coined "Earth, Wind and Fire." It allowed Eli Manning to better manage the game and took some of the pressure of having guys like Plaxico Burress absent from the huddles on Sunday. Fast forward to Dallas today and I see a dynamic set of tailbacks ready to explode this season. If you loved Brandon Jacobs in 2008, trade him in for a Marion Barber in 2009.

A month ago I was hesitant about the work share allowing any one player to be a consistent talent in my fantasy backfield. I just don't see how the Cowboys will be able to resist pounding the rock when they see what taking the pressure off Tony Romo can do in the passing game. A month later, I'm thinking there will be enough carries to go around. I'm pushing Romo, Roy Williams and Jason Witten down too.

Over in New York, I see a team without a true #1 WR and a quarterback trying to be the face of the franchise. Big-time pressure without big-time talent. Derrick Ward is gone, lopping one of the head's off the monster that was a year ago. Now Jacobs, is always going to be labeled an injury risk. But they lost over 1000 yards rushing in Ward and have unproven talent in the passing game. The offense isn't going to move the ball as easily this year and that alone should translate into fewer TD opportunities.

Will similar injuries derail Jacobs and Bradshaw in 2009 the way they did Dallas' backfield after such a promising start in 2008? I don't know for sure but the odds are high enough to scare me away. I'm not buying Jacobs at his current value and would be looking to trade him while he still has value. The first hint of news suggesting he will miss action will send his fantasy stock down for the rest of the season even if he only misses a single game.

Wade Phillips might not transform into Tom Coughlin anytime soon but don't be shocked if these two offenses trade places in fantasy football production.

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Fantasy Football & A Movie: Fantasy Inspiration 101

2009-09-04T16:32:00.003-04:00

With Boise State on their way to an undefeated season the football season has officially started. That means the kids are back in school and the journey that is the fantasy football season is upon us. Some people may have their own ritualistic habits for opening day. Some may even have fantasy football rituals. Me? I just like getting into the “season” that is football. Read More

I’m offering up a fantasy football dish of inspiration and a couple things to ponder. As you get ready for those week 1 lineup decisions, you have to first make a commitment to your leaguemates. The black eye of fantasy sports in general is the abandoned team. Don’t be that person. Just don’t. If you don’t think you can handle playing fantasy football for the entire season, get a friend to share the team with or don’t play.

Now on with the show…

Steele: Rudy,are you ready for this, champ?
Rudy: I've been ready for this my whole life!
Steele: Then you take us out on the field.

Locked, stocked and loaded, have some pride when you set that week one lineup! I can almost feel it now. The first “Game Break” of the season. Keeping one eye on the game and the other on the words scrolling across the screen. Good food, great drinks. All the research and planning that went into building your 2009 fantasy football roster is now on display.

Preparing for a fantasy football season isn’t nearly the same as Rudy leading the Golden Domers out onto the field but you should get some joy seeing what your team can do nonetheless. It’s a long season but in week one everyone is in it, everyone has a chance to win it all, including your favorite NFL team.

Pete: Well, you know what my dad always said, Having dreams is what makes life tolerable.

This might just be essence as to why fantasy football was ever created. I mean way back when, someone decided it would be fun to create fictional teams made up of real life players. Something to do for fun, pass the time and perhaps make life just a little more tolerable. Fantasy football has evolved from pocket protectors because people kept dreaming of something even better.

Make sure you have fun this year and be mindful of those people that really don’t care about your fantasy football team. It’s not everyone’s fantasy. Don’t let your dreams of fantasy fame make someone else’ life intolerable.

Fortune: You're 5 foot nothin', 100 and nothin', and you have barely a speck of athletic ability. And you hung in there with the best college football players in the land for 2 years. And you're gonna walk outta here with a degree from the University of Notre Dame. In this life, you don't have to prove nothin' to nobody but yourself. And after what you've gone through, if you haven't done that by now, it ain't gonna never happen. Now go on back.

Perspective. It’s funny how we seem to lose our way or ever decided to take the path we are on in the first place. Fantasy football is perspective. No matter what is going on with your real life, no matter how old or young you are. No matter how bad your team was last year. You will always be able to assemble a fantasy football roster and set your lineups throughout the NFL.

Some people consider fantasy football more than a hobby. In the day of Twitter and Facebook, fantasy football is its own little social networking site. Use it as a way to keep in touch with your friends and family members. Or perhaps you need something to talk about with your co-workers at the water cooler. Fantasy football is a great way to connect with people you have known for years but haven’t talked to in months!

Rudy: [laughs] Yea, I have this wish to let my father watch one of his sons play football for the Irish and I was wondering if I could possibly dress for one game next season?
Ara Parseghian: Rudy the NCAA is really strict with this 60-player rule, and in some positions we only have one backup and you know that every year we are competing for the national championship. Is this wish just for your father?
Rudy: No its for everyone who told me that being a Notre Dame Football player would be impossible. My brothers, the guys I work with at the mill they can't come to practice and see that I am a part of this team.

Not only does this shed light on just how far Notre Dame football has fallen, but it should also remind you that every roster spot counts. Don’t narrow your focus solely on your starters. Not managing your entire roster throughout the season can cost you a championship. Trim the fat and load up on the carbs that could energize your roster.

Do you really need to keep Todd Heap as your second TE? At best you might need him during your other TE’s bye week. In most leagues you can find an adequate replacement on the waiver wire that week. Instead of carrying Heap for the first few weeks why not consider a guy like RB James Davis? The Browns are going to lose a lot of football games and may want to get a look at their young back by midseason. Even if that doesn’t happen, Jamal Lewis isn’t getting younger? Always, always, always be sure to maximize your roster’s full fantasy potential for the rest of the season!

Rudy (1993)
Starring: Sean Astin, Jon Favreau, Ned Beatty, Scott Benjaminson, Charles S. Dutton, Christopher Reed, Lili Taylor
Directed by: David Anspaugh

Movie Review, Story and Interview With Rudy | Rudy International

The movie is great but the story is even greater. Sit back and think about the magic that happens each year on a football field. From the NFL down through Pop Warner, you can see inspiration everywhere. To a lot of people, football is a game full of overweight men hitting each other, offering little entertainment value or meriting significant interest. Everyone is entitled to his or her own opinion I suppose. However, when a Rudy Ruettiger comes along, you find out football is much more.

Fantasy football is a dream every fan can live out. As owner, general manager and coach all rolled into one simplified game people like you and I can live out our dreams of running an NFL team. The best part is there are no NCAA eligibility rules to prevent you from playing more than four years!

Other FFM Posts:
Getting An Edge On Draft Day
Will AFC Running Back Redeem Themselves
Gambling On NFC North QBs

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Dealing Fantasy Football Cards

2009-09-02T15:06:00.002-04:00

The buzz around the NFL and fantasy football is peaking and my mind is overflowing with information. NFL headlines are racing through my head and the proverbial snowball has morphed into an avalanche. I’m scrambling to evaluate my new fantasy football rosters, tracking the latest fantasy news and reviewing final roster cuts and winners of position battles. Then along comes that first trade offer. Read More

When you start talking about fantasy football trades prior to the season you get mixed opinions. Some believe you have to wait and see how everyone performs before making any meaningful trades while those who love tinkering with rosters are sending out trade offers ten minutes following the draft. Regardless of which side of the fence you reside on, trading is a part of the game.

Whatever strategy you choose, keep an open mind. One of the hardest and most difficult things for a fantasy football manager to do is let go of the draft or auction. Once you are done, it’s done. Like the deal in a card game, it’s simply a way to distribute the cards so you can play a game. An ace of spades isn’t worth more because it was the first card you were dealt!

Yet, people tend to think that a player chosen in round 6 is more valuable than a player chosen in round 8. Stop! Your roster is your roster. Too often people look back to how the player was obtained to determine present value. Would you trade a 1st round pick for a 6th round pick? No. But things change and those “picks” are now players who, like stocks, see their prices rise and fall daily.

By week 9, you are far enough removed from the draft that this issue isn’t much of a factor. Do yourself a favor and base early trade decisions on the current and potential value of players on your roster, not on how those players came to be on the roster. The fantasy football draft is a fun way to deal the cards. Don’t make it anything more.

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Fantasy Football Draft Nuggets

2009-09-01T16:52:00.005-04:00

Had the draft for my long standing redraft league. A 14-team with .5 PPR, 4 pt pass TDs and -2 INTs. Went fairly well, but three things stood out. Read More

I'm not a big fan of "roster posts" since you really have to be in the draft to get a feel for how things went down. Also, every league is different so the results are not cookie-cutter. After digesting the draft, however, there are a few fantasy nuggets I feel are worth sharing.

Holes

When you enter a 14+ team league you are going to have a hole unless your rosters are extremely thin. Get it in your head right off the bat so you are depressed by round 8. that is about the time you realize you are weak at one position or another. The best thing you can do at that point is continue to make the strength of your team better. this will create a roster more suitable for trade opportunities. Just as every tam should have a hole, most teams will have an area of surplus. get active and keep the lines of communication open following the draft. Then follow up those emails with trade talk.

Runs

I drafted 9 of 14 and was relieved to know only 10 and 15 picks would span my draft choices. I wasn't burned by a run, but the guys drafting at the top saw seven QBs taken before their second pick. Nothing they, or you, will be able to do about it. just be prepared if it happens.

Injuries
The Texans game was going on in the background. Matt Schaub injured? Of course he will be hurt this season...wait...you mean he was just injured? Like right now? This kind of thing can happen so if games are being played while you are drafting I strongly suggest trying to monitor the game while you draft.

Happy Drafting!

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Choose Your Own Adventure In KC

2009-08-31T13:49:00.002-04:00

Remember those wonderful "novels" back in school? You didn't really read anything but flipped from page to page to see how long you could go before the story ended. Thanks to the Chiefs, fantasy football owners have a new set of adventures to choose from as we get ready to kick off the 2009 NFL season! Read More

Cassell is out with an injury but the Chiefs have not yet confirmed the extent of that injury. Furthermore, Head Coach Todd Haley has just fired OC Chan Gailey prior to the start of today’s practice!

I guess Kansas City's overhaul of the offense wasn't complete. I'm staying far away from the Chiefs right now. Heck the entire playbook might be changed less than two weeks prior to the start of the season! Absolute craziness.

I'm not sure I'm buying LJ anymore. On the other hand, if KC has to turn to Thigpen for an extended period of time, Bowe might actually benefit.

Pierre Thomas's fantasy stock rose throughout the offseason only to decline in recent weeks due to question marks about his health and workload entering 2009. Following the Saints latest game HC Sean Payton was asked about Thomas:

Is there concern that Pierre Thomas won’t be ready for the season opener and when will you make the first round of cuts?

“Number one, there would be some concern, although I think very little that he wouldn’t be ready for Detroit, at least based on the information now. The feeling is he’ll be ready for that game and would probably be listed as questionable for Thursday night’s game.”

Fantasy Football Librarian recently touched on some players who could drop out of fantasy football's top 20.

The Ravens kicking job has the potential to be quite productive for fantasy owners. Here's the latest from Ravens Insider:

“It's apparent that Ravens head coach John Harbaugh wants second-year kicker Steve Hauschka to win the place-kicking duties…If he plays well against the Falcons, Hauschka gets the job. If he doesn't, the Ravens will try to re-sign Stover.”

Both New York teams offer fantasy owners below average wide receivers. However, someone has to catch the ball and therefore, each team attractively employs a few bargain options for the 2009 fantasy shopper. Steve Smith will undoubtedly see his fantasy stock rise due to an expected increase of targets, but rookie Hakeem Nicks also deserves a look. His recent performance should translate into a slight bump in ADP this week.

Speaking of rookie WRs, Bruno Boys offers their opinions on them in thier latest post.

Carson Palmer’s injury woes continue, as he is still not practicing in pads. Already a risk in the minds of most fantasy owners, Palmer’s fantasy value continues to suffer while he is sidelined. Those drafting this week could take full advantage by grabbing the former overall #1 pick as their backup QB. I still like his value and expect a rebound.

Fins fans are growingly becoming unenthused about Chad Henne’s prospects of being Miami’s future QB. I still think Denver’s Chris Simms is the best backup QB with a shot to make a fantasy impact, but Henne is in the discussion. He could be that guy who comes out of nowhere ala Derrick Anderson a few years back. Pennington does have an injury history.

I you are not sold on Roy Williams being “the guy” in the Dallas passing attack, perhaps you should invest in Miles Austin?

If you think troiphies are a bit childish to award to the winner of your favorite fantasy football league, you may want to consider a t-shirt instead.

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A Little About Fantasy Football Auctions

2009-08-27T12:55:00.002-04:00

I prefer drafts to auctions but when a league starts exceeding twelve teams, you really have to admire the structure an auction draft can have on the competitive balance of your fantasy football league. So why not dive into some of my thoughts on auctions, auction values and buzz around them! Read More

Auction Leagues Are Better Than Draft Leagues Myth

First, I would like to tackle this myth that people have about auctions being the only REAL test of whether you are good at fantasy football. We’ve all come across the auction loyalists who stop listening to you when you tell them you signed up for a draft league. These auctioneers will not step within 50 feet of a regular serpentine draft and boast of their godly fantasy football IQ even if they finish in last place.

Okay, I might be exaggerating just a hair but the notion is ridiculous. It is perfectly fine to develop strong preferences within activities you enjoy. Whether it’s how you like your coffee or the type of shoes you wear, people know what they like. That’s cool, but you are not given a medal for wearing Nike shoes. It’s a personal choice, nothing more.

Here’s what you need to know. Fantasy auctions are tougher on beginners or those with average NFL knowledge. Why? Because you don’t simply choose a player when it’s your turn. The added strategy does make auction style formats more suited for league’s with a full complement of competent owners but it doesn’t make them the holy grail of fantasy football.

I can argue it is harder gaining an edge in a format that allows fewer opportunities to gain that edge. If anyone can truly win a draft league, then why do people win multiple fantasy titles on a regular basis? It takes skill (and a little luck) to win a fantasy football championship regardless of whether you use a snake style draft or an auction!

Auction Values

I’m not an auction hater. I soak up strategy and enjoy analyzing the best player to nominate as much as I like bidding up a player. It’s fun to get “stuck” with a player and have to swiftly shift gears in the middle of draft to compensate. It’s FUN!

However, nothing ruins a fantasy football season more than not having decent auction values for each player. Yea, you can reach for a player in a regular draft too, but you still get a pick in the next round. In auctions, you have a limited amount of dollars to spend and if you don’t use them well it could cost you a lot more than picking a player a round early. Do yourself a favor and go get some auction values before you head into a draft.

Research different strategies to get the most value out of every fantasy dollar you spend. I have not done enough fantasy auctions to offer advice into specific strategies but FFToday's Matt Waldman offers a great, detailed article on employing fantasy football auction draft strategies HERE.

The Live In-Person Auction

Being a part of a live, in-person auction is an experience in itself. Even if you don’t participate, the sheer fun of being around the splendid candor of a room full of adults playing a game that pits football knowledge against each other is a rewarding human experience.

Not only do you have to battle the wits and verbal jabs from your counterparts but several external forces can have a negative impact on your draft results. Mentally preparing for these types of hurdles is essential. Draft parties range from mild to wild but basically you have three major forces at play: scenery, food/drink, and time.

Depending on where your league likes to host such fantasy drafts, there is likely to be a few things to look at during the course of your draft. First and foremost is the ability to see and hear the bids. Knowing who made the bid is as crucial as what the bid actually is so seat yourself accordingly. Draft boards can be handy but not if you can’t see them! Of course don’t let yourself ogle so much you are unaware of what is going on for more than a minute or two. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule.

Food and drink are a must but do put some thought into what you get. Do you really want to spend 5 minutes or more in the bathroom 30 minutes into the draft? Enjoying the day is fine but if you start slurring names other than TJ…not only will you wake up with a headache, but also you now have three months to look at the team you put together.

The duration of a draft can be grueling and you have to pace yourself. Ok well you don’t have to pace yourself so that you are as spry in the end as you were at the beginning but you need to make sure you are at least better off than your peers. Also, don’t try and “squeeze” in your draft around other commitments. If you play in a league that makes the draft a true event then treat it like one.

FFToolbox offers some more auction tips HERE.

The Live Online Auction

Do yourself a favor and find time to do a mock auction draft online if you are new to auctions or fantasy football in general. The online experience presents the fantasy football owner a slightly different set of challenges as the in-person auction draft.

If you are new to fantasy football, make sure you have the right computer and Internet connection to handle the auction application. Next, make sure you have the atmosphere you need for the duration of the draft. Go to the bathroom before you start and don’t try to navigate eating your dinner and left-clicking at the same time. You might be able to but why go there?

There are a few others, but really the only other thing you need to know besides having good auction values to start from is knowing which players share names like Adrian Peterson. You don’t want to be that guy!

Just a quick note: I am planning on attending a local 16-team auction September 6th. I’m a mutual friend of several owners and offer advice and impartial commish-type of opinions when asked. Since auction values for deep leagues are often hard to come by I’ll try to post them here on the blog afterward for anyone who wants to take a peek.

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Fantasy Football Sleepers Of 2009 And More

2009-08-25T13:07:00.008-04:00

If you receive my twitter updates you would know my computer was attacked over the weekend. The end result is that I still haven’t been able to completely clean everything and have lost a few things including all the progress I had on my 2009 fantasy football rankings. Needless to say this sets me back a bit.

Nonetheless, I thought this week's Hobo Soup would be a good time to share my opinions on some of the guys I like and dislike heading into the NFL season. So here are my positional fantasy picks for likely rebounds, most underrated, most overrated, etc. as we approach the kickoff to the 2009 NFL season. Read More

Most Likely To Rebound

QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – I’m not expecting him to re-establish himself as a top-5 fantasy QB, but feel comfortable drafting him as my starter. Palmer’s injuries have made fantasy owners forget that he is still a great NFL QB and he has enough talent around him to put together a useful season in a balanced offense.

RB Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs – Another guy I like entering the 2009 NFL season is LJ. The guy has raw talent and if there was ever a year you could really see the motivation Johnson desperately needs to be productive, it is now. Johnson doesn’t have the same mileage on the tires of other backs his age and hasn’t lost his ability to get the ball into the end zone.

WR Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints – Colston may not close in on 100 receptions like he did in 2007 but 80+ is realistic. He is the top receiving option in a pass-heavy offense with one of the game’s elite passers, Dree Brees, throwing him the ball. Pierre Thomas’s emergence and the presence of Reggie Bush will also prevent defenses from regularly keying in Colston. Expect a rebound into the top-10 WRs with top-5 within reach.

TE Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams – Ok so this old-timer isn’t going to be in discussions about the best fantasy football TE in 2009, but he is an above average pass-catcher that shouldn’t be overlooked in deeper leagues. The Rams will be less than stellar in the passing game but they have to throw the ball to someone. If he can remain healthy a final line of 500-600 yards and 5-6 TDs is realistic considering he should get 5+ targets a game, further illustrating the true depth at the position this year.

Most Underrated

QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – I am not a huge fan of him and loathe Dick Jauron but right now I think Edwards is being vastly underrated. Edwards has more to work with this year with Jackson and Lynch providing a nice duo rushing and Terrell Owens taking pressure off of Lee Evans. Parrish is healthy again and gives them nice production as a wideout and kick returner. Trent Edwards might be the perfect QB2 if you choose to wait on a starter.

RB Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers – Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but the Steelers’ RBBC should do a better job at keeping everyone healthy while giving each RB a more defined role in the offense, collectively taking the pressure off any one guy to perform. Mendenhall is in a great position to put up quality RB3 numbers and with moderate injury concerns with Moore and Parker the Illini product has quality upside.

WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers – I talked about Jackson previously in my targets article but he bears more notice in 2009. He has steadily progressed in both opportunity and production in each year of his career. San Diego will have to rely less on LT this year and with Antonio Gates showing his age, Jackson might be the next best offensive fantasy weapon on their roster.

TE Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles – Celek will be a steal at just about any point he is likely to be drafted. Defenses will have an even tougher time keying in on players in Philly’s pass-friendly fantasy attack. McNabb has always been able to find the TE and HC Andy Reid has never been afraid to use the TE. I wouldn’t be shocked if Celek finished the season ahead of Tony Gonzalez.

Most Overrated

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Most veteran fantasy cohorts know he is worth more in real life than in fantasy but for me it’s more about the philosophy of the offense he runs limiting his fantasy potential The Steelers do not want to throw the ball to win football games. Instead, they just want to throw enough to win. Why else do you think Big Ben takes so many hits trying to keep plays alive? He’s just not in a position to succeed as a fantasy football quarterback, limiting his upside.

RB Ladanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers – Count me in the group that feels LT is not going to deliver a 1200+ yard, RB1 type of season. I’ve touched on his workload previously and feel Norv Turner will be better able and more inclined to let Phillip Rivers attack defenses through the air in 2009. In the end, I believe Tomlinson will deliver numbers closer to a RB2 and chances are slim you’ll have a chance to get him that cheap.

WR Chad Ochincinco, Cincinnati Bengals – Here’s a guy that has been undervalued as often as he has been overvalued. Ochocinco may like to be in the spotlight but the truth is he has lost a little speed and Coles might be the better deep threat. Palmer’s return will lead to better stats this season but not enough to justify making him one of the first WR2’s off the board.

TE Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints – The track record speaks for itself. Talented and tough, Shockey often leaves fantasy owners lacking the production they expected when they drafted him. Too many injuries and an attitude that can flare up (note his recent skirmish with Houston) attach too much risk for any fantasy owner to take at such a deep position.

Best Risk/Reward Pick

QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – His running game has abandoned him and he’s on the older side, but few QBs possess the deadly fantasy combination of elite skill and friendly offensive system to produce premium quarterback production as McNabb. With additions to the passing game and offensive line, only injuries and age can stop McNabb from finishing amongst the best QBs in fantasy football. Not a sure bet due to his injury risk, but one worth taking in my estimate.

RB Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders – I’ve touted McFadden in recent weeks and still believe the future is bright for the second-year running back out of Arkansas in 2009. Already expected to assume a bigger workload this season; the injuries to the receiving corps should yield more touches in early weeks than previously planned. The risk of taking McFadden lies in injuries and his ability to withstand the added workload he will see this NFL season.

WR Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills – An afterthought in many leagues because he hasn’t produced a solid fantasy season since 2006, Lee is part of arguably the best offense the Bills have assembled since Peerless Price was a fantasy commodity. Evans will benefit from having Terrell Owens suiting up on the other side and Trent Edwards is entering his third year at the helm of the offense.

TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers – No offense will be as different to fantasy owners than the 49ers will be in 2009. The red and gold are going to lineup each week and “hit you in the mouth” and that style of play will benefit TE Vernon Davis. Despite being told to leave the field during a game last season, new HC Mike Singletary will need an effective passing game for Shaun Hill to manage. Davis has the size and athleticism to illicit far more than the 49 targets he received a year ago.

Favorite Sleepers

QB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Jacksonville disappointed in 2008 and the bad taste it left in Garrard’s mouth has prompted the Jags QB to get in better shape over the off-season. The addition of veteran Torry Holt should help the Jaguars on third down and sustain drives. Add in Garrard’s rushing ability and I think you have a QB that will out-produce his draft position, especially in league that score only four points per passing TD.

RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – The more I look at what Smith was able to do last year, the more excited I get about his chances to further develop in 2009. A sound bet to eclipse 1200 total yards and 10 TDs, Smith is a great RB2 that can be had in the late-third round.

WR Greg Camarillo, Miami Dolphins – PPR leaguers should put a big fat star next to Camarillo’s name on draft day. His final line in 2008 doesn’t represent the type of player Camarillo was evolving into with Chad Pennington throwing him the ball. Similar to other wideouts like Bernard Berrian, Donald Driver and Torry Holt, Camarillo averaged over 7 targets per game in 2008 as one of his QB’s favorite options. A full season of health should make him a nice WR3.

TE Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers – The Packers offense and passing game in particular did quite well in 2008 without Lee contributing much because he was needed to help out an inexperienced offensive line. Expect Green Bay to allow Lee to run down the field more in 2009, resulting in numbers closer to his 2007 line of 48 receptions, 575 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Backup To Have Fantasy Impact

QB Chris Simms, Denver Broncos – Kyle Orton is mediocre at best and isn’t the best option to get the ball into Brandon Marshall’s hands. Simms is capable and once given the chance will wrangle away the starting job for good. Keeper league owners should bump him up their boards.

RB Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers – As noted above, I lack the faith in LT as others. Regardless of whether Tomlinson goes down with injuries Sproles has earned more carries and showed he can be productive backing up the legendary LT.

WR Steve Breaston, Arizona Cardinals – Not only will Breaston be involved as the third WR in the Arizona offense but an injury to either one of the starting Cardinal wideouts presents further upside to Breaston’s fantasy value.

TE Martellus Bennett, Dallas Cowboys – Dallas’ passing attack will feature the TE position quite a bit, while employing plenty of two-TE sets. Witten will draw plenty of double-teams to give Bennett room to work. An increased workload for the former Aggie should allow him to build on last season’s four TDs even if Witten is healthy throughout the entire season.

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Ed Reed Risky For IDPers

2009-08-22T13:33:00.008-04:00

NFL fans were immersed with Favre and Vick headlines this week. But what else went on that might be interesting for fantasy owners to know? This week's installment of BOXCAR Blitz provides a few more links to recent NFL fantasy football news and opinions. Read More

I'll start off with a nugget for those who play in IDP leagues. Ed Reed let everyone know he is still feeling soreness in his neck and shoulder areas due to an impingment. With the contact Reed will face in the NFL it's hard not to think Reed will be limited or held off the field at some point this season.

Bruno Boys' ADP Watch highlighted a few of the RBs being taken earlier as the season nears.

Favre returned and didn't do much. I really think Favre will lose as many games as he will win for them. As I touched on in my previous post about NFC North QBs, Favre's "ideal situation" with the Vikings isn't so ideal for fantasy owners.

Since I've had a few inquiries, those of you who like the BOXCAR Babes portion of my blog may want to check out lingeriebowl.com for more attractive fantasy football leagues.

The knocks on Jay Cutler's fantasy value this season usually start with his lack of WRs but I keep trying to tell my friends and family into fantasy football that the Bears are still a running team and don't want Cutler throwing for 4000 yards. Chicago Bears OC Ron Turner reminded Cutler of that recently and those of you who have not realized the true ceiling of Cutler in 2009 should take note.

Newly signed Bills top pick DE/OLB Aaron Maybin has a nice video interview on Buffalo's official site.

In light of the Favre and Vick sagas I went a little lighter than usual. I'm also currently working on my 2009 fantasy football rankings and should have those ready by tomorrow!

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Fantasy Football & A Movie: Getting An Edge On Drafts And Auctions

2009-08-21T12:26:00.003-04:00

So you have joined a fantasy football league or three for the 2009 NFL season and you have a draft coming up. Or perhaps your long-standing 16-team auction league has its reservations set at your favorite watering hole. Many fantasy leagues have been filled as we are entering the heart of the 2009 fantasy football drafting season. I’ve got a couple of drafts coming up myself so I thought I’d go over a few things to keep in mind at this special time of year. Read More

"Why is the rabbit unafraid? Because he's smarter than the panther.”

You don’t have to know the most to claim a fantasy football title. One of the most popular questions any veteran fantasy football loyalist will entertain from less seasoned players is some form of “What is the biggest thing I need to do right in order to win?”

My answer is always short and sweet. “You need more than one thing to go right.” Then I usually add to my answer after getting puzzling looks and “wow that was helpful” responses. So the next piece of wisdom I impart on people is telling them luck is a very important element to winning. At some point during the season you’ll be on one end or the other and you must realize luck is part of the game. Do not whine about it. Just deal with it and always remember you might be on the other end next week. Of course when you are unlucky in the playoffs or half your roster is injured there is reason to gripe. Just don’t get nasty and stop being active because it will ruin things for the rest of the owners.

Since those seeking advice are usually hoping for more than “luck” in an answer I give them something they can apply and send them on their way. Know your competition. Know them well enough to converse and offer competitive banter as well as logical and reasonable trade offers. Know their tendencies. How active are they on the waiver wire? What is their favorite team? Which players do they like or dislike? Knowing the other owners in your league can not only help you outsmart them but it will also make the season more enjoyable.

When you know what your opponents can and can’t do, how they prefer to go about their business and what really ticks them off you can adapt to whatever they are likely to do before they even do it.

“A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow”

If you head into 2009 with the intent on paying a little closer attention to your competition then you are already improving as a fantasy football owner. I love to analyze data, it’s part of the reason I love playing fantasy football. However, it is often my biggest obstacle to overcome during a fantasy season. I strategize too much sometimes and have put myself in huge holes because I didn’t place enough focus on the present. Falling in love with sleepers and breakout candidates can hurt you as much as showing them no love. Always head into a draft with an open mind and try not to be too high or low on a player and be careful when selecting players to place on your Do Not Draft lists.

Likewise, you don’t want to go into an auction thinking I am going to pay whatever I have to get player X. Be informed about players who might be available you’re your turn to pick comes up, but basing you draft or auction plans around one or two players you plan on getting can leave your head spinning with the time counting down.

Your best bet when entering any fantasy football season is to have a good idea about the values of players and not trying to figure out which of three WRs you believe will be on the board in the third round because you will have two RBs and don’t like taking a QB that early.

“Did you know that you can make fire from ice?”

Know what you are capable of during the season. If you are not going to be able to spend 10 hours a week looking at your fantasy football team(s) then try to draft a roster that will allow you to “Set it and Forget it.” Pass on the injury risks and keep an eye on the bye weeks. This type of strategy is best used for those playing for fun or are beginners. However, this can work well for fantasy football gurus who have horrible luck at making lineup decisions each week. If you can fill your positions with a distinct hierarchy of talent you can reduce your chances of “starting the wrong guy” syndrome.

On the flip side, if you know you will be extremely active following the NFL, injury reports and the latest news daily throughout the season you can afford to take more risks on players since you’ll be able to replace those who don’t pan out much easier than the owner who checks his team once or twice a week. You can also employ a less balanced approach to your draft or auction such as loading up at one position or reaching for a player because you know you will a great value later.

Having skill in fantasy football is as much about creating a roster that you can manage as it is about knowing NFL players’ and fantasy values. The team with the best players doesn’t always win each week. Putting your best possible lineup together on a weekly basis will help to consistently be competitive each week. You don’t have to know every survival tactic to get out of the woods alive.

The Edge (1997) Starring: Anthony Hopkins, Alec Baldwin and Elle Macpherson

Directed by Lee Tomahori

Movie Review | More Info

This movie was a perfect choice for this week since I had the outdoors on my mind and fantasy football drafts coming up. A fantasy football season is a grind to survive the elements and using whatever resources you can find on the waiver wire to fill patch the holes. Sometimes you have to put your trust into someone who has burned you in the past by making a trade that helps another team as much as it does yours.

By the end of the season, you will have had to overcome more than a few challenges if you are to hoist a fantasy football trophy. You will need to be insightful and never get too down on your current situation. My first fantasy football title came after I started the season 2-6 before winning all but one of the following weeks before rolling over higher seeds in the playoffs. I was amazed at how much I learned in one season without even realizing it and I think Alec Baldwin’s character felt the same way by the end of this movie.

That concludes this week's movie. Good luck to those who are holding thier fantasy football auctions and drafts this week. My 2009 fantasy football rankings will be out soon! BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Fantasy Football Rankings: 2009 Sophomore RB's

2009-08-18T16:05:00.005-04:00

Vacation was good but with NFL exhibition games being played, the fantasy football season beckons. I encourage people new to fantasy football to do something many veteran players overlook: Take a look a what happened last year, specifically trends or outliers. I’m not talking stats or numbers; I’m talking around the league, what stood out and what do you remember from last year’s grind. Read More

I jot down a few things at the end of every fantasy season, a good habit to get into if you like to be competitive. I write down things I might want to keep in mind for next year. One of the things that stood out from the my list this year was:

“Changing of the guard at RB, young guys everywhere.”

An array of reasons contributed to a lot of younger guys seeing time and raising their fantasy stock. And what’s crazier is that there are even more guys who were limited during the 2008 NFL season while gaining a year of seasoning. This is truly a changing of the guard at fantasy football’s most coveted position.

Young guys have limited track records but the sophomores should now be more adjusted to the length and amount of work that goes into playing a full slate of games in an NFL season. And this year’s class is chocked full of interesting fantasy talent.

Top Of The Class

1. Matt Forte – A top-five pick in most fantasy football leagues, Forte is a durable back that will be fed the ball in a run-first offense. His receptions should come down this year with Cutler more adept at getting the ball to the WRs and TEs.

2. Steve Slaton – In the final seven games of the season, Slaton averaged 23 touches per game. Houston also went 5-2 during that stretch. Coincidence? Like the Texans, fantasy owners will lean on Slaton as a low-end RB1 fantasy football leagues with 12+ teams.

I like both of these guys but I’ll gladly take Slaton as the better value. Cutler and the Bears still need to show they can throw AND CATCH the ball downfield to prevent defenses from stacking up against the run and counting on Orlando Pace to stay healthy is risky.

Room To Grow

3. Chris Johnson – I have to admit, that Thanksgiving Day game last year stuck to my stomach like a plate full of turkey and dressing but Johnson was flat out faster than everyone on the field last year and I don't see any reason to think he'll lose a step in 2009. What was even more impressive was seeing his patience develop so quickly, timing his burst to hit the holes.

4. Darren McFadden – He showed enough in 2008 to make the coaching staff realize they need to make him a bigger part of the offense. He’ll still split time with Fargas and might not start the season as the offical starter, but he’s a young playmaker who should get twice as many touches in 2009.

5. Kevin Smith – Detroit’s season may have been lackluster but it wasn’t Smith’s fault. Detroit has a new coaching staff in place and should get better play from the QB position, two keys to providing Smith with double digit TDs in 2009.

Smith might be the best pick of these three because of consistency. McFadden is the upside play here, while Johnson’s worth will come down to touchdowns…Johnson’s big play ability isn’t going to disappear in 2009 so he’s my favorite of the three.

Breakout Darkhorses

6. Ray Rice – McGahee isn’t the featured back in Baltimore. Rice is still young and learning the offense, but Cam Cameron is still the OC. I think his 54 targets in 2008 goes up, making Rice a great value in PPR leagues.

7. Rashard Mendenhall – I don’t have any decent numbers to write down to help convince you this guy will be good in 2009. All I can tell you is that the Steelers struggled mightily close to the goal last season and Mendenhall is the answer. His carries will be limited but 500 yards and a bunch of TDs makes for a pretty good RB3.

I wouldn’t consider these guys true sleepers because the upside isn’t tremendous but both should be put into positions to prosper this season. A mini breakout to become a RB3 is possible with each of these guys. In PPR leagues the choice is Rice, in TD formats Mendenhall gets the nod.

And The Rest

8. Jonathan Stewart – Williams turned in such a fine second half last season, I’m worried Stewart, coming off an Achilles injury, will be able to garner enough touches to be consistently productive in 2009. At this point, I’m only grabbing him as a handcuff to Williams.

9. Felix Jones – He surprised me last season. But a healthy Marion Barber and Tashard Choice’s presence will limit his touches in 2009 making him more of a RB4 in 2009.

10. Tim Hightower – The situation around him should have a negative impact on his fantasy usefulness. A RB in a passing offense with a first round pick for competition and he actually lost weight despite being run down at the end of the season.

11. Tashard Choice – He’s fighting for touches and will need an injury to make him more than waiver wire fodder or a bye week replacement in deeper leagues.

12. Jamaal Charles – Nothing special here. If LJ goes down, the Chiefs will probably end up passing more, not handing it to Charles.

13. Michael Bush – He’s technically a sophomore after missing his true rookie season. He’s long removed from his Louisville days and shouldn’t be rostered in all but the deepest of leagues.

14. Peyton Hillis – Denver is loaded at the RB position and touches will be scarce.

Stewart could prove me wrong. He certainly has the talent but his counterpart, DeAngelo Williams, has proved me wrong on multiple occasions as well. Par for the course I suppose. If I had to choose from this list, I’m selecting Felix Jones. FYI Jones returned kicks last year and some leagues count return yards!

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Vacation Calls

2009-08-09T00:01:00.002-04:00

I am on vacation this week so there will not be any posts until I return. I just didn’t have the time to put something decent together before I left and had other priorities to attend to in preparation for my trip.

I will be thinking of new topics to discuss and working on my rankings while sipping a few frosty beveridges. I’ll also shed some light on how I tend to rank/project players. It's somewhat of a hybrid tiering system that simplifies the statistical projection aspect of fantasy football rankings.

Have a great week.

It's All About Value At Quarterback

2009-08-05T14:54:00.009-04:00

Regardless of your league scoring, your fantasy QB has a great impact on your overall success. Unless you play in a league that awards six points per passing TD and doesn’t deduct points for interceptions, filling your QB slot is all about value vs. opportunity cost. Note that I mentioned league scoring. Always start any rankings, evaluations or trade offers by referencing your league’s scoring. With that said, let's take a look at three potential value picks for your fantasy football team. Read More

When you select a QB, be it through auction or draft, it’s essential to find the best value without passing up an option at another position. Overpaying for a quarterback can single-handedly cost you a fantasy football title. One of the first places I look for deflated prices and prime QB value is amongst those returning from injury. Do your homework, get the facts and follow the updates throughout Training Camp on guys who are hungry to get back on the football field. Coming into the 2009 fantasy season, three guys standout as potential value picks: Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer and Matt Hasselbeck. All three have proven capable of delivering quality stats expected of a starting fantasy QB yet all three have deflated value due to injury concerns. Would I invest in any them? Let’s take a closer look.

Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

The oft-injured Houston starter has only injuries preventing him from being a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Schaub averaged 250 passing yards over his first seven games and threw 10 TDs against 8 INTs. These stats made him more of a “match up QB,” or a quarterback you’d use in a QB platoon, starting them against favorable match ups. However, Schaub returned from injury in Week 14 and finished the regular season averaging 320 yards and posting 5 TDs over the final four games of the season. Even when you factor in his 400 yard performance skewing the average a bit these numbers are more in line with a top 12 fantasy QB.

The guys surrounding Matt Schaub in Houston add to his appeal as a fantasy starter. Andre Johnson is a proven veteran target and Kevin Walter netted 60 receptions and 8 TDs in a secondary role. Running back Steve Slaton is also a threat in the passing game after recording 50 receptions as a rookie in 2008. Furthermore, only four tight ends caught more passes than Owen Daniels last season.

Schaub needs to stay healthy, but the guy can play and is still improving as an NFL passer. Keep in mind 2008 was only his second year starting. Fantasy quarterbacks with his level of production, no matter the chances of being truncated by injuries, cannot be ignored. I consider Schaub a “snake-pick” because in many leagues his price will fall so low he will surprise fantasy owners and if you do take him you will need to take some extra precautions like securing another QB. That and he is ideal for those drafting at the turn, going QB/QB to ensure you can pair Schaubber with another quality option.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

Palmer’s elbow cost him 2008 but he says it’s healthy and I believe him because the Bengals are going into the season with popular 2008 waiver wire add J. T. O’Sullivan as their primary backup to the former Trojan. If you were worried about his recent time away from the field, it was simply bronchitis. Nothing arm or elbow related, he’s back on the field now.

Palmer is one of the best QBs in the NFL, but the offense is going to be re-tooled for 2009. Housh left for the left coast, but the Bengals brought in a guy I like to have a great season in Lavernaues Coles. Opposite him, is the infamous circus that is Chad Ochocinco. Together they form a very capable, veteran duo.

Palmer and the Bengals are going to scale back some of the passing this year while they try to better establish the run in 2009. This might hurt his overall passing yardage but keeping defenses honest should lead to a better TD: INT ratio. Overall, I like Palmer to be good but not great this season. His upside is not 4,000 and 30 anymore, but he’s plenty capable of putting together a fine fantasy season. Are there really 12 better options at quarterback? So he plays the Steelers and Titans four times, is that really enough reason to pass on him if you are one of the last teams without a QB?

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle passing attack was ravaged by injuries in 2008. The numbers just don’t add value to the conversation. In 2007, Hasselbeck just missed the 4,000 and 30 mark. At 34, he isn’t quite finished, but that won’t prevent fantasy owners from devaluing him entering the 2009 NFL season.

I do think Hasselbeck’s injury woes will have some lasting affects on him this season, but I also think a healthier team around him will make him a suitable QB to own. Housh was added and Carlson is ready to get more involved in the passing attack. Burleson and Branch are fine secondary targets. Hasselbeck shouldn’t be counted on as an everyday starter for 2009, but he is someone to consider depending on your other quarterback. The difference between Hasselbeck and the previous QBs mentioned is his decline in production will make him a decent backup fantasy QB, as opposed to being a starter like Palmer and Schaub. Throw in the injury risk and you don’t have a valuable fantasy asset on your roster. You have a guy that may start only once for you during the season.

Some closing thoughts

I typically do not pay for QBs. I go into a draft or auction with a set limit and stick to it. I believe it’s better to get good value than to pay market value at the QB position (I do stray from this strategy once you enter a league starting 2 quarterbacks). More often than not, an owner investing in one of the top six quarterbacks will not bother adding a decent back up QB. Adding more risk to a high draft pick is something I try to avoid. Instead, getting two guys from the 8-14 range reduces the risk of each pick and also comes at a far greater value. In other words, take on a little less production from your QB slot and reduce the risk of having an injury severely damage your chances of winning a fantasy championship. To better leverage the situation, do your homework and look at the schedules for each QB, not just the bye weeks.

Sometimes you have less control over the value of a particular player. You can’t stop Bob from taking your guy two rounds before you were willing to take him. And if Paul decides he wants to build his team around Aaron Rodgers he’s going to pony more dollars at auction than you are. It’s all about value at the QB position. Don’t get sucked in! Know the value of all quarterbacks heading into a draft or auction and patiently wait for the quarterback that falls in your lap.

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BOXCAR Blitz: Cutler Looks Good, LJ Q&A

2009-08-02T09:17:00.009-04:00

Jay Cutler will be written about in some form or fashion every single day for the next several months. Bears camp has started and Cutler is getting early praise. Read More

The little note I found to be of particular interest is this:

"Determined to stay sharp, Cutler threw passes to Bears wide receivers and tight end Greg Olsen in the weeks leading up to training camp when players weren’t required to be at Halas Hall."

First and foremost it shows Cutler and Olsen are taking on leadership roles in the offense. Secondly, it seems each of them knows they need the other to enjoy success. Thirdly, they are motivated and hungry. Maybe it's me, but today's professional athletes don't always get excited about putting in extra time in the last few weeks before the grind of a grueling season begins. I've already moved Olsen into my top 5 TE's this season, but I'm wondering if I'm selling him short.

The Blitz starts this week in Arizona where newly signed Beanie Wells got hurt. Wells and Hightower have lost weight and both appear to feel lighter and faster, however will they wear down?

Tarvaris Jackson's knee injury has added further drama to Minnesota's quarterback battle. The injury hasn't given Brad Childress enough reason to bring in another QB. Has it cost him the starting job?

I'm touting Darren McFadden as a player to target in 2009. After looking at film from last season, Tom Cable wants to get him more touches. McFadden will steadily climb ADP rankings the closer we get to NFL opening day so grab him now!

I also advocated putting faith into Larry Johnson last week and there is a nice Q & A with the running back available on the team's site. Johnson has plenty to prove and he has matured as a result of last season's events.

Julius Peppers spoke about his contract issues this summer in an interview with the Charlotte Observer.

Giants wide receiver Steve Smith is confident he can fill the void left by Plaxico Burress. I recently wrote about Smith being a guy who should capitalize on the increase of balls thrown his way.

If you happen to land Colts TE Dallas Clark on your fantasy roster in 2009 you might want to follow his blog. Speaking of TEs, considering Shockey for your fantasy squad? Shockey says he isn't limited at all in this Q & A from the Saints official site.

Jarvis Moss left Broncos camp and is considering retirement. Out in Seattle veteran gaurd Mike Wahle was released after failing a physical, likely ending his NFL career.

That's all for this week folks!

BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Fantasy Football & A Movie: Will AFC West Running Backs Redeem Themselves?

2009-07-30T15:44:00.007-04:00

Some of the biggest disappointments during the 2008 NFL season resided in AFC West backfields. Fantasy owners want to know: Is it time to abandon Ladanian Tomlinson? Is there too much pressure on Oakland’s Darren McFadden? The AFC West offers some intriguing running back options for the 2009 fantasy football season. Read More

Last week I covered the NFC North quarterbacks only to find out Brett Favre is staying retired-at least for now. I’m not going to go back and redo the Vikings portion of that article, but I will make a few brief comments here before we delve into the AFC backfield situation.

Rosenfels and Jackson are now in a true competition for the starting job and neither one of them have given Brad Childress much confidence. They both have their warts, but the most effective passer should win the job out of training camp. I think that guy is Rosenfels and I still think Favre winds up under center for Minnesota before the season is over. With that out of the way, let’s turn our attention on this week’s featured presentation…

Andy Dufresne - “You know what the Mexicans say about the Pacific?”
Red - “No.”
Andy Dufresne – “They say it has no memory. That's where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory.”

Oakland has offered fantasy owners very little in recent years. I’m not sure what the Mexicans say about the Raiders, but my friend and life-long Raider fan wishes he had no memory of last year. But he does think there is light at the end of the tunnel, albeit a long tunnel.

The Raiders possess several interesting value picks heading into the 2009 fantasy football season. The best of the lot is Darren McFadden, now entering his second full season. The 4th pick of the 2008 NFL draft finished his rookie campaign with 784 total yards and 4 touchdowns. The Raiders have a talented young running back? That’s not what makes him the most interesting fantasy topic coming out of Oakland this year.

Justin Fargas will start the season as the team’s primary running back in 2009. Tom Cable is more confident in Fargas’ ability to handle a full workload. Considering McFadden touched the ball more than 10 times in only 6 games a year ago I can understand Cable’s opinion. But factoring in Oakland’s dismal performances over recent years, I don’t understand why you would draft a player #4 overall and not believe he is capable of carrying the load in his second season. Perhaps Cable does think he can do it, but doesn’t want to put any extra pressure on the kid throughout training camp or disrupt relations with the guy who has salvaged the Raider backfield in recent seasons.

McFadden will be starting at some point in 2009 regardless of when Fargas gets injured. And when he does, Oakland’s RBBC will merely shift, rather than go away. I like the former Razorback because he is a dual threat that could be getting 18+ touches by week 8. That would likely make him a decent RB2 coming out of Oakland’s bye week, just in time to battle for a spot in your fantasy playoffs. He’ll be a nice flex option until then and will come at the price of a RB3.

“I must admit I didn't think much of Andy first time I laid eyes on him; looked like a stiff breeze would blow him over. That was my first impression of the man.” – Red

Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith are not going to take over the starting job from Larry Johnson. There are a variety of potential reasons for the pathetic campaign Johnson put together in 2008. Not one of them makes as much sense as the guy just not being interested. Remember when Priest Holmes was winning fantasy football championships across the nation? Johnson had a chip on his shoulder and something to prove. He did it to the tune of 20 touchdowns in 2005, his first season carrying the ball over 300 times.

In 2008 we were wondering what happened to the old LJ just about the time when we realized how bad the Chiefs were. Do yourself a favor and throw Johnson’s 2008 in the trash. Don’t even look at it when putting together your rankings. Why? The Chiefs were not a very good team last year and had to mold their offense around the strengths of a third string quarterback. It was a mess of a season and LJ wasn’t motivated.

Johnson is heading into 2009 with something to prove again and it might just be his career. With only 1243 carries, he’s not your typical 30-year-old running back. Matt Cassel is now the QB and perhaps most importantly, Herm Edwards isn’t on the sidelines. Edwards may have liked to run, but he did it so much the defenses knew it too. Johnson is healthier and so is the offense. A stiff breeze isn’t blowing this guy over in 2009. Just don’t get overzealous and expect Johnson to anchor your fantasy backfield. Instead consider him a strong RB2 with upside to explode for three scores once or twice during the year.

“Lord! It's a miracle! Man up and vanished like a fart in the wind!” – Warden

What happened to fantasy football beast LT, only 12 touchdowns? The guy didn’t completely vanish like a fart in the wind last year, but for Tomlinson’s standards, he certainly failed to deliver the numbers we’ve come to expect. Despite eclipsing 1500 total yards for the eighth consecutive year, Tomlinson’s YPC (Yards Per Carry) dipped below 4.0 for the first time since 2004. As a result, Ladanian lost his grip on the top spot in fantasy football.

Tomlinson may be headed down, but he is starting a lot higher than most. The recent declines of former elite fantasy running backs Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James can be reviewed when forecasting LT’s fantasy production in 2009. Alexander and James both saw their YPC dip below 4.0 in 2006. The following years, Alexander (who turned 30 that season) had a lack luster 2007, while James (who turned 29) actually improved from the prior year.

Tomlinson (turned 30 in June) has toted the rock over 500 more times (2659 carries) than James (2155 carries) had entering the 2007 season. Tomlinson started showing the times of wear and tear last season, failing to touch the ball at least 20 times in five contests while finishing the regular season with less than 300 carries for the first time in his career. Tomlinson is a very special player, but I’m not expecting a rebound in 2009 and will be avoiding him in drafts and auctions.

“I have to remind myself that some birds aren't meant to be caged. Their feathers are just too bright. And when they fly away, the part of you that knows it was a sin to lock them up DOES rejoice” – Red

I’m going to go out on a limb and state that Mike Shanahan has been the source of over a billion headaches endured by fantasy football owners. Denver’s backfield has always been relevant, but most fantasy owners treated the situation comparable to spending the next 17 weekends with your in-laws. So can we rejoice now that Shanny isn’t pulling the strings of fantasy owners?

Not quite, Denver enters 2009 employing a plethora of running backs. Not too mention a new head coach who spent the last eight seasons under Bill Belicheck so don’t get rid of the Advil just yet.

You will have to monitor Denver’s training camp to see how the backfield starts to unfold, but rookie Knowshon Moreno is expected to be the best fantasy option in 2009. It appeared Moreno’s team held him back in college so I’m looking forward to seeing him “escape” Georgia and go up against NFL defenses. He may not be given enough touches in his first year to become a quality RB2 but I expect him to be a solid flex option, especially when rosters tighten up during the bye weeks.

Shawshank Redemption (1994) Starring: Tim Robbins, Morgan Freeman and Bob Gunton. Directed by: Lee Tomahori

Pictures Movie Review More Info

I don’t know if people just sympathize with Andy Dufresne or if the plot develops smoothly or if it’s the sound of Morgan Freeman’s voice narrating throughout the movie, but this film captures you. It’s interesting and entertaining. Even when you have a good idea of what is going to happen you just watching how it happens. Maybe that’s why I likened this movie to AFC West backfields in 2009.

We know Darren McFadden will be the guy before the end of the 2009 NFL season, but how is it going to play out? Will Fargas get hurt or will they be in a RBBC the whole way? What happens if McFadden and Fargas are hurt at the same time? Kansas City is re-tooling and LJ is motivated again but how will the other backs be used to compliment him? Then you head over to San Diego where the brightest star in the fantasy football universe isn’t so bright anymore. The one that you could count on to lead you home to a fantasy football title isn’t the guiding light it once was. Some fantasy owners will follow the fading start whilst others seek out the next twinkling star. Denver’s backfield is going to be a “mix” but what roles will each have and how will Moreno be used?

How will these backfields redeem themselves after letting fantasy owners down in 2009? Well, it’s really just a matter of time and pressure now isn’t it?

That concludes this edition of Fantasy Football & A Movie! BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Targeting Sleeper WRs For The 2009 Fantasy Football Season

2009-07-28T16:41:00.008-04:00

When determining a player's fantasy value, I place a lot of emphasis on opportunity. If a player isn't on the field, touching the ball or getting the ball thrown to him his chances to produce for your fantasy squad are more limited. Over the past two years, "targets" has become a staple stat category amongst fanasty football enthusiasts. Rarely an actual category in fantasy football and not found on the box scores, "targets" refer to the number of passes thrown to a particular NFL player. Read More

If you want to gain a competitive edge in your fantasy league, you should start looking at all the data available on targets. Of course, if you have been playing in a competitive fantasy football league you are probably already familiar with this statistic. During the season, following weekly targets is easy and straight forward. But how do you use target data in the pre-season to help better evaluate NFL players prior to the season? Here are some things to consider when factoring in target data while preparing your 2009 fantasy football rankings and auction values.

Strictly going by last year's numbers isn't enough.

Ok, so we all need a place to start and taking a gander at the 2008 data is logical. CBSSports' Jamey Eisenberg provides the 2008 target totals by position and even includes Drops and Red Zone data. However, we can not just assume the data will repeat itself during the 2009 NFL season. Brandon Marshall led the NFL in targets in 2008 (despite playing in only 15 games) and 2007 but do you really think he will be atop the leaders with Shannahan gone and Orton under center in 2009? Use the 2008 data as a starting point only.

3-year averages offer more useful information as well as yearly increases. Take a look at how the data changes when changes to the offense are made (such as a new head coach, new quarterback, etc). I'll provide some of my own analysis at the end of this post but if you are seeking out target data from previous years to conduct your own research, FFToday.com offers everything you'll need (just scroll down and find it on the right side).

Ok so you have the data in front of you, now what?

When you look at the target data from the previous three NFL seasons for wide recievers you can start to see useful trends. For instance when you gather up the wideouts with at least 50 targets in each season you will see roughly the same amount of receivers with roughly the same target splits year-to-year. Below I have listed the data.

Year ( # of WRs with 50 targets-75 targets-100-120-150)

2008 (82-57-37-23-11)

2007 (85-60-35-22-9)

2006 (82-57-37-23-9)

This shows us that each year the distribution of targets at the wide receiver postition remains fairly unchanged. There is likely to be 80-90 WRs with at least 50 targets in 2009 and roughly 10 of them will eclipse 150 targets. Another peice of useful data is the average number of targets from each year's crop of WRs at least 50 balls thrown their way. In each of the past three years, this number has been 98 targets. I find this number rather useful because it tells me that the pass catchers with the most chances for fantasy production will have at least 98 targets during the 2009 NFL season.

So why go through a fancier, longer way of getting to 98 when anyone with half a brain knows more targets equals more opportunity? My rationale is simply that it serves as a starting point to determine fantasy relevant receivers, including potential sleepers and busts.

As we get ready for the 09 NFL football season, receivers like Anthony Gonzalez, Mark Bradley and Devin Hester are being dubbed potential 2009 fantasy breakout players. And why not? Gonzalez and Bradley are slated to open the season as starters in pass-friendly offenses while Hester is Chicago's default number one receiver. Does the target data support these potential fantasy sleepers?

Looking at the target data from the candidates above, none eclipsed the 98 mark in 2008. However they did manage to be on the end of at least 50 pass attempts last year and increased their target total from the previous season by at least 20. Thus, we can compare other WRs with similar totals from previous years and see how they performed the following season.

First, let's look most recently at the wideouts who would have fallen in this category heading into the 2008 fantasy football season.

Wide Receivers with at least 50 and less than 98 targets in 2007 who saw their targets increase by at 20 from 2006:

2007 2006 2008
Nate Burleson 95 37 9
Roydell Williams 94 20 DNP
Josh Reed 87 48 80
Patrick Crayton 81 48 70
Vincent Jackson 80 56 101
Dennis Northcutt 73 45 68
Drew Carter 74 50 DNP
Brad Smith 66 14 19
Keary Colbert 67 12 27
Andre' Davis 63 7 28
Derek Hagan 58 37 6
Jeff Webb 57 4 13
Lance Moore 50 3 113

*Omitted due to injury: David Patten, Justin Gage, Joe Jurevicius, Brandon Stokely, Robert Ferguson, Jabar Gaffney

Among this group, Vincent Jackson and Lance Moore were the only ones to "pan out." Nate Burleson might have joined them, but an injury ruined his season. The rest of these guys spent more time rotting on the waiver wire than on a fantasy football roster. Perhaps the data going into 2007 will be different?

Wide Receivers with at least 50 and less than 98 targets in 2006 who saw their targets increase by at 20 from 2005:

2006 2005 2007
Reggie Williams 92 63 60
Arnaz Battle 86 54 104
Chris Henry 76 50 46
Troy Williamson 76 52 38
Alvis Whitted 63 26 DNP
Bobby Wade 58 29 83
Vincent Jackson 56 8 80
Drew Carter 50 15 74

Omitted Due To Injury: Ronald Curry, Peerless Price

In this group Arnaz Battle and Vincent Jackson offered owners the best return on investment. However, more than half of these players failed to make the jump into fantasy football relevance. So what can we deduce as we set out on our quests for a 2009 fantasy football league title? First we need to take a look at which current players increased their target total and amassed 50 targets in 2008 but failed to hit the 98 mark.

Wide Receivers with at least 50 and less than 98 targets in 2008 who saw their targets increase by at 20 from 2007:

2008 2007
Greg Camarillo 88 10
Steve Smith 82 14
Ted Guinn jr. 93 71
Devin Hester 92 38
Anthony Gonzalez 79 52
Nate Washington 78 55
Domenik Hixon 72 1
Rashied Davis 67 32
Mark Bradley 63 17
Brandon Jones 62 34
Michael Clayton (TB) 61 40
Jason Avant 57 33
Koren Robinson 58 34
Hank Baskett 51 22

If trends continue, two or maybe even three of the above players will garner more targets in 2009 and find themselves on the majority of fantasy rosters. However, none of the previous players heading into 2007 or 2008 who made this list AND panned out became top-end fantasy options.

Oftentimes, the pre-season hype around these types of players creates a blurred reality of what these players are likely to yield in the upcoming fantasy football season. So which players from this crop have the best chances of helping you throughout the 2009 fantasy football campaign?

As I mentioned earlier Bradley is moving into a nice situation opposite Bowe in Kansas City, but I'm not convinced he will be too much better in 2009. Bowe will be featured and Bradley won't be sneaking up anyone this year. Although Cassel seemingly did a good job of spreading the ball around in New England last year, the Chiefs don't have nearly the amount of talented pass catchers as that of the 2008 Patriots.

Devin Hester is not a #1 WR and his hands will be exposed with a QB like Cutler rocketing the ball around the field. His targets will go up by default because the Bears will have to throw the ball to someone and Hester will see the field more in 2009. Hester may be in the best position to return WR3 type numbers but when you factor in the hype and what kind of investment you will need to make to retain his services, I'm not buying the former 'Cane.

Avant and Baskett are fighting for playing time let alone, targets. Davis and Hixon have shown they can be productive, but each looks destined to be #3 or #4 on the depth chart. That dwindles things down to five guys who I think have the best shot.

Could teammates, Greg Camarillo and Ted Guinn Jr. both improve upon 2008? I'm pretty sure one of them will, rewarding fantasy owners in the process. My money is on Camarillo, who ammased 83 targets in only 11 games a year ago. If he averaged 5 targets during the five games he missed, he would have become one of the 25 most targeted NFL receivers in 2008.

I like Nate Washington, but his new team runs and his new QB doesn't take a ton of shots down the field. Washington will continue to be inconsistent and isn't likely to see a big jump in targets.

With Plaxico out of town, the Giants are forced to rely on lesser proven pass catchers this year. The G-men also RB Derrick Ward from the backfield. Eli Manning will be asked to do a little more this year, especially on third downs. Enter Steve Smith, a player who has the hands and ability to catch Eli's not-always-on-target passes. Sinorice Moss will create buzz out of the slot and Hixon will stretch the field, leaving Smith in the perfect position to see more balls thrown his way. I still like Camarillo more, but Steve Smith would be my second choice from this list.

If you have enjoyed this week's batch of Hobo Soup, don't foregt to stop by again next week! BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

Where Will Plaxico Land?

2009-07-27T13:48:00.006-04:00

I was listening to Mike and Mike on ESPN radio this morning and one of the emails Golic read proposed a very interesting scenario regarding Plaixco Burress' potential home for the 2009 NFL season. As a result, I decided to spend the next several minutes pondering the idea. Read More

As we all know Plaxico is an idiot. I won't even waste time linking out to one of the dozens of instances that validate the previous sentence. However, his attorney is not an idiot, and was able get his client's case moved back until February. The legal dance move has likely enabled Plaxico Burress to play during the 2009 NFL season. I am not going to ramble on about whether Burress should be in jail or for how long amidst this morning's latest headlines.

What got my attention was an email read over the air proposing the idea of how the Vikings should consider signing Plaxico Burress if Brett Favre puts on a purple jersey this season. The premise being they would both be under one-year contracts and offer the Vikings a better shot at winning the Super Bowl this season. Not a bad idea if you ask me and something that should gain more steam in the coming weeks once Favre makes up his mind.

The NFC North is filled with story lines heading into the 2009 NFL season so nothing would surprise me.

So the Favre to Burress connection seems plausible but a possible downside is having a low character guy in Burress being the adjunct mentor to Mr. Percy Harvin. I view Harvin similarly to Devin Hester. Both are quick, play making, types of players who can be used in a variety of roles but each lack the overall talent of an elite NFL wideout. The Bears brought in Mushin Muhammad as a place holder and tutor for Hester, could Burress fill the same role for the Vikings? He certainly could but I cringe at the thought of someone as immature as Burress being that guy. Then again, if the Vikings don't win, and by win I mean get off to a good start as well, Brad Childress will be looking for a new job. As nice as it may sound to have Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre and Plaxico Burress on the same team it gets a bit murkier when you realize the Vikings are going to start two inexperienced players along the offensive line in second-year man John Sullivan and rookie Philip Loadholt. One weak link and the three-headed Viking ship will see their season capsized by week 10.

Thanks for stopping by BOXCAR Football. Tomorrow I'm planning on discussing how to use "target" data when preparing for your fantasy football draft. BOXCAR Football updates are also available on RSS and Twitter!

BOXCAR Blitz: The Favre Circus Is In Town

2009-07-25T12:51:00.003-04:00

Favre is (still) undecided. What else is new? The guy just won't leave the headlines, let alone the football field. As a Bears fan, I'm not a fan of the guy. However, I have always respected his talents and abilities on the field as a football player. As a marketing guy, Favre has been the center of an incredible public relations evolution: A retiring football legend…morphing into a lousy soap opera star…turned jean-wearing country boy moonlighting under the big city lights…But what happens to the hottest acts on Broadway when they fizzle out? They hit the road like a traveling circus spending their days pondering the good ole days and telling stories to anyone or any team that will listen. Read More

Favre doesn't have 16 games of passing in his arm...but that's exactly why he wants to join the Vikings. Don't be fooled by all the revenge talk, in Minnesota, he can put on a purple #4 jersey even if he has a gray beard and hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson. the thing about circuses is they come into town, set up shop for a little while and then leave. Hmmm, I wonder if Favre will come back just long enough to think about and then re-re-retire after baseball's World Series to ~~dominate~~ dessimate the headlines? Or is he just trying to add some content to the last pages of his autobiography? But hey even if he does call it quits, it just means you will see 'FAVRE' the movie in theatres near you a year earlier.

Here is a great overview of the Cardinal's top stories heading into training camp from Darren Urban. I'm planning on writing about Arizona's backfield situation soon. It looks like Hightower will be the main guy, but I'm not completely sold on him.

The Eagles officially named their successor to Jim Johnson. Don't underestimate the impact of this move. Few Defensive Coordinators have Johnson's play-calling abilities.

Vick has been released of federal custody and apparently has already met with NFL Commish Roger Goodell. I still think he ends up in the UFL or Canada ala Ricky Williams. Vick is another circus waiting to happen but Dallas isn't interested in adding another performer.

The Bruno Boys updated their QB rankings this week. Brady is still amongst the top tier while tier three is comprised of some of the best QB debates this fantasy football season.

Who is Mr. Indispensable on the Cowboys? It isn't who you think according to DallasCowboys.com Columnist Mickey Spagnola.

Former Northern Illinois Husky, Drew Bennett, inked a deal with the Ravens. This is a low risk move for Baltimore to bolster their receiving core.

In case you were wondering when each team is scheduled to report to training camp. And Football Jabber compiles a great list of Training Camp previews if you are salivating over the start of the NFL football pre-season.

The Bengals added one more loss to their record this week. I wonder if this decision will be find its way over to New York City where there are more than a few disgruntled baseball and football fans.

That wraps up this week's Blitz. Thanks for stopping by and don't forget you can now follow BOXCAR Football on Twitter and via RSS.

Fantasy Football & A Movie: Gambling On NFC North QBs in 2009?

2009-07-23T04:00:00.060-04:00

The NFC North QBs are an interesting crop for fantasy owners to analyze this season. Whether this field of passers will lead to more wins on the field isn’t what I want to talk about though. Can you win a fantasy football league title with an NFC North QB? This division has almost every “type” of signal caller you can find in the NFL and fantasy football. Let’s take a closer look…

“Hanging around…Hanging around…Kids got alligator blood.”

Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings - This guy has the ruggedness of Wranglers denim but how many pairs of jeans hold up for 19 years? Sure the guy is an all-time NFL great who put up over 3400 yards of passing in New York last year. But the guy has single handedly turned sports journalism upside down.

Take away the name and then look at what “Joe Quarterback” brings to your fantasy football team. He is on the down slope of his career, playing in a run-first offense. His crop of receivers has never been to a single Pro Bowl and his top wide out has never eclipsed 1000 yards in a single season. Did I mention a run first offense? How well will all those interceptions play in a ball control offensive scheme?

Only five teams attempted fewer passes than the Vikings last season. In fact, Minnesota passed the ball on just under 45% of their plays from scrimmage in 2008. “Joe Quarterback” wouldn’t rate very high on many draft boards so don’t be fooled by drafting the name. If Joe Montana wouldn’t have won you a fantasy football championship in 1994 with the Chiefs what makes you think Brett Favre can in 2009?

“You can't lose what you don't put in the middle…But you can’t win much either.”

Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Detroit drafted Matthew Stafford first overall this season to be their QB of the future. First year head coach Jim Schwatrz will ultimately decide when exactly “the future” will occur. Until then it will be popular topic in blogs and newspapers all pre-season. Regardless, what should make the Lions QB job interesting to any fantasy football manager is simply: Calvin Johnson.

One of the game’s rising stars is also one of the best targets available to any quarterback in the entire NFL. In 2008, Detroit’s mess of quarterbacks mustered twelve touchdown passes and 78 receptions to Johnson. As long as Johnson is lining up on the outside, the man under center has the ability to throw a TD pass.

Due to the cloud of uncertainty over who will start and for how long, one or both of these quarterbacks will be discounted heading into the 2009 fantasy football season. Consequently, both Detroit signal callers are long shots that deserve consideration as a backup on your fantasy football squad-especially in leagues that use deeper rosters.

“When the money is gone, time to move on.”

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – The Packers made a decision last off-season to move on from the Brett Favre era. For those fantasy owners who did the same and invested in his replacement, Aaron Rodgers, you were rewarded handsomely. Rodgers has matured to become the class of NFC North quarterbacks while earning his first trip to the Pro Bowl last season. A healthier, hungrier and more experienced offense surrounding him, Rodgers figures to remain amongst fantasy football’s best passers in 2009.

In 2008, Green Bay scored the fifth most points in the NFL, additionally the Pack placed in the league’s top 10 in Passing Yards/Game. Rodgers should be able to maintain his 2:1 TD:INT ratio and figures to flirt with 30 passing TDs.

However, if you choose to make Rodgers the starting quarterback for your fantasy football team you are gambling in the fantasy football playoffs. The Packers final five games are vs. BAL, at CHI, at PIT, vs. SEA, at ARI. I’d strongly suggest keeping an open mind and put him on the trading block later in the NFL season, perhaps following his Week 12 tilt against the Lions.

“Listen, here's the thing…If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker”

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – Time will tell if the Bears, Broncos or Mr. Cutler himself, were suckered into this deal and whether or not Cutler is truly a franchise quarterback, however the fantasy implications resulting from this trade are truly difficult to determine. There are not too many cases of a 4500-yard passer being plugged into a run-orientated offense. After the likes of Brady, Brees and Manning are off the board, Cutler has been one of the better quarterbacks to target in fantasy football. Now in a new offense, what is Cutler’s fantasy value heading into the 2009 NFL season? Some think it’s better than that of Rodgers’.

The short answer would be to simply state there is far too much risk and uncertainty in the player to merit the price tag he is likely to command in a draft or auction. The longer answer would include breaking down the stats and making an educated guess as to how much the addition of Cutler will help the Bears and your fantasy football team.

The Bears were among the five worst teams in the NFL on passing plays of over 20 yards in 2008, yet Cutler was among the five best quarterbacks in that statistic. A year ago, Chicago’s vertical passing game finished in the upper half of the NFL in pass attempts; even so only Drew Brees put more pigskins in the air than Cutler in 2008. The Bears’ team leader in receptions was it’s running back and its #1 wide receiver heading into this year’s training camp managed to find the end zone only three times while netting 665 yards. Fantasy owners will have to decide for themselves how much the Bears offense will deflate Cutler’s numbers and how much will Jay Cutler inflate the Bears passing attack. I will have another post exclusively on Cutler later this pre-season to help you decide!

The Final Line - Handicapping the NFC North QBs for the 2009 fantasy football season.

Aaron Rodgers 3-1
Jay Cutler 5-1
Brett Favre 18-1
Matthew Stafford 18-1
Daunte Culpepper 25-1
Sage Rosenfels 25-1
Tarvaris Jackson 80-1
Matt Flynn 100-1
Caleb Hanie 200-1

Rounders (1998) Starring: Matt Damon, Edward Norton, John Turturro, John Malkovich, Famke Janssen and Melina Kanakaredes. Directed by John Dahl.
Pictures Movie Review More Info

Rounders is one of my favorite movies and not because I spent the majority of my sophomore year at college playing poker. The characters are great while the plot reveals the cultural influence of poker in modern society. The lessons and experiences portrayed in Rounders and the game of poker itself can also correlate to your fantasy team.

Fantasy football is the Cadillac of fantasy sports and each season injuries and breakout performances create “swings” for every fantasy football manager. All the time you spend on the waiver wire, responding to trade offers with Christy Turlington references and making those tough lineup decisions may feel like your grinding your way to a fantasy title. It’s a unique journey every year and if things break right you just might find yourself with three stacks of high society. And if they break the wrong way there is always rolled up aces over kings!

On a side note, I toyed with the idea of putting audio clips into this post. However, I was concerned it would make loading the article take longer and didn’t necessarily feel it was worthwhile. What do you think? Should I include audio in future Fantasy Football & A Movie posts? You can post your answers in the comments section along with any other opinions on this post. Thanks for stopping by!

That concludes this week's BOXCAR Football presentation of Fantasy Football & A Movie featuring Rounders!

The First Question You Need To Answer This Fantasy Football Season

2009-07-21T14:48:00.005-04:00

The very first thing I tell people to do when preparing for the fantasy football season is to ask themselves whether they want to win or just play along and have fun. It makes a difference on everything you decide to do from that point forward-at least four months out. Chances are if you are reading this blog you are probably the type who wants to win and enjoys looking for other opinions and insight as you form your own analysis of players and projections this NFL season. Consequently, if you want to win you have to make fantasy football a true hobby, anything short of that and your chances coincide exclusively with fate, luck or whatever deity you may choose to worship. Read Hobo Soup!

So you take fantasy football seriously and joined a league or three. What to do now? Do you head straight for the mock drafts? Check out the early rankings from numerous sources, maybe even compile them from all the fantasy football gurus on the web to create a handy excel spreadsheet. Do you search out articles and news stories on your favorite players and or teams? Or are you a veteran fantasy owner who already has his favorite fantasy football sites and blogs book marked and RSS Feeds added?

No matter your experience level, here are three things people underemphasize when preparing for a fantasy season.

1. Get to know your competition and start planting seeds. Whether you know the people in your league well or a total stranger, introduce yourself and start a dialogue. In leagues I have been playing in for several years and everyone knows everyone I still like to extend a personalized greeting to owners referencing last season. You just want to open the lines of communication and bury any residual hatchets while also stoking the fire. I don’t care if you are a beginner or used to compile your fantasy results using box scores from Monday’s newspaper, knowing the other owners are going to be active is essential to creating a fun and competitive fantasy football league. When you begin to put in countless hours of time to win every week the last thing you want is seeing the guy you are tied with for the last playoff spot playing a team that stopped looking at their team two weeks ago. Do your part at the start and you will have a better chance of enjoying the entire season.

2. Rankings and Cheat sheets. It would not be fantasy football without position rankings and cheat sheets, but how do you make them useful? Everyone has his or her own opinion and everyone values another’s opinion differently. I could write a 1000 pages on rankings but really only one thing needs to be said. All the rankings you see are simply data. If you are researching for fantasy football, you probably have developed your own perception of players’ value.

Unless you are going to compile rankings and run qualitative analysis on the numbers my suggestion is don’t go crazy with rankings. Take one or two sources you find respectable and form your own rankings. Then you can spend more of your time tweaking those rankings. And by tweaking, you don’t have to simply move players around each time. If you read something or an injury occurs and a player’s value rises, simply put an up arrow and short note next to their name. After a few weeks, make some revisions and move players around. You really should not have to update your rankings more than twice before an auction or draft.

3. Make preparations in your real life. Once something becomes a hobby, it has the chance to take up a great deal of your time. It may sound like overkill here but I have seen long-time relationships dwindle during a fantasy football season the same way I have seen fantasy teams abandoned by week six. It’s completely ridiculous to put yourself into a position where you cannot balance your hobby amidst your career, family and other priorities (scroll down to the second heading). Every time I say this to people, they look at me like I have three heads yet every year it happens.

Seriously folks, the first question you need to ask yourself to prepare for the 2009 NFL season is:

Do you want to play fantasy football for fun and amusement or do you want to win your league championship?

ADP And Auction Values

2009-07-19T16:30:00.005-04:00

To help you better prepare for the 2009 fantasy football season, BOXCAR Football links straight out to the latest ADP and Auction Value data provided by MyFantasyLeague.com!

2009 Fantasy Football Data

Updated ADP

Updated Auction Values

Introducing 'BOXCAR BLITZ'

2009-07-19T09:52:00.005-04:00

August is almost here and NFL training camps are just around the corner. It also means the fantasy football season is upon us as players battle for roster spots and NFL team depth charts are sorted out. Additionally, the fantasy football community begins its own preparation for the 2009 campaign. BOXCAR Blitz will simply take a look around the web and find out what others are saying about the NFL and the buzz surrounding upcoming fantasy football year. Read More

ChicagoBears.com senior writer, Larry Meyer, offers his take on whether Devin Hester can truly develop into a #1 WR in 2009.

If you are a fan of the AFC North, Mike Duffy at BaltimoreRavens.com has a nice divisional update compiled.

The latest on Brandon Marshall.

Why Dick Jauron wanted to sign a veteran third running back and Lynch's workload.

Zac Johnson at ClevelandBrowns.com provides his preview of Cleveland’s wide receivers.

On the lighter side of things, take a quick look at the Top 50 Miami Dolphins quotes of All Time courtesy of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. (I like #3 myself)

A nice interview with Jerry Rice by the Star Tribune.