Boys of Old Florida

Quick Hit

2011-01-05T11:15:00.002-05:00

According to my contact with the team, Will Hill did not attend this morning's team meeting with Coach Muschamp.

It is believed that Hill will declare for the NFL Draft.

On a side note, it is believed that one of Hill's advisors is Dee Webb.

Staff Update

2010-12-27T14:42:00.002-05:00

Another day another rumor or two.

It appears as though James Willis will be joining the staff. His position is still unknown, however I am hearing that DC is unlikely. Willis recently resigned from the Texas Tech staff, where he served as DC under Tommy Tuberville. I think it is likely that Willis will at a minimum coach LBs. The addition of Willis would mean that DJ Durkin would either coach just DEs or be the ST coordinator.

A leading candidate for the DC position, or Co-DC position, has also emerged. Quinn is currently coaching the Seattle Seahawks DL and previously coached with the Jets, Hofstra and William & Mary.

Word is also circulating that both coordinators could end up being co-coordinator positions, with one person coming from the NFL for both sides of the ball.

What I am hearing

2010-12-22T15:22:00.003-05:00

Florida Coaching Staff.

I have been told that 2 current coaches have already been retained for next year. Unfortunately, I haven't been told who those coaches are as of today. But we do know that one isn't Steve Addazio. Addazio was offered the offensive line coach position at Texas, but reportedly turned that down and will be the next head coach at Temple.

Count me as one of the people that think Addazio will make an excellent head coach. The players love him and he is an excellent recruiter. As the year wore on it was obvious that he was in over his head here at Florida, but I think he will do fine in Philadelphia.

Of the remaining staff members, we know that Teryl Austin will not be on the staff next year. Supposedly he will be the next DC at Texas - weird that they like our staff more than we do. I have a feeling that Stan Drayton will be on the staff, because it is typical for an incoming coach to retain one of the african-american staff members and since we only had 2 and 1 is going to Texas....

So I will put the remaining staff members in order of likelihood of staying:

Brian White - TE coach and FB coach.
Chuck Heater - S coach
Scot Loeffler - QB coach
Zach Azzani - WR coach
DJ Durkin - LB coach

Here is what I think our staff will look like at the end of the day:

Will Muschamp - HBC
Al Borges - OC and QB coach(currently at SDSU and coach with Muschamp at Auburn)

other possibilities
Garrick McGee - OC at Arkansas
Major Applewhite - RB coach at Texas

Stan Drayton - RB coach

other possibilities
Greg Knox - RB coach at Miss. State
Robert Gillespie - RB coach at Oklahoma State

David Kelly - WR coach and recruiting coordinator (currently at UCF)

other possibilities
Stan Hixon - WR coach with Buffalo Bills
Bobby Williams - TE coach at Alabama

Stacey Searels - OL coach (currently at UGA and coached at LSU with Muschamp)

other possibilities
Tim Davis - OL coach and running game coordinator with Minnesota Vikings
Joe Wickline OL coach at Oklahoma State

Kirby Smart - DC and LB coach (currently at Alabama and coached with Muschamp)

other possibilities
any of the below with Muschamp handling the defensive calls during the game

Bo Davis - DT coach (currently at Alabama and coach with Muschamp)

other possibilities:
Terry Price - DL coach at Ole Miss
Mike Tolleson - DE coach at Texas

John Papuchis - ST coordinator and DE coach (currently at NEB and coach at LSU with Muschamp)

Chuck Heater - secondary coach

My list above is one short, but you get the idea. I see a staff that will emphasize physical play and be deeply connected to the Southern way of playing football.

I will update my list as I hear more, but the key date is the day after our bowl game, which also coincides with the end of the NFL regular season.

Power Rankings – Pre Bowl

2010-12-17T14:18:00.000-05:00

First of all I apologize to our blog readers, should any actually remain. In the past 2 weeks I’ve moved residences (leaving me without computer access) and been down with a nasty case of the Flu. So I’ve been AWOL during this active time (welcome Will Muschamp!)

I know some of you have looked at my Power Rankings in the past for “investment” purposes, so they are presented here pre-bowl (all disclaimers apply – not a gambling website). Here are the Pre-Bowl Rankings for all 120 NCAA teams –

1	Auburn	2.2523
2	Boise St .	2.1603
3	TCU	2.0826
4	Ohio St .	2.0100
5	Missouri	1.9592
6	Oregon	1.8915
7	Arkansas	1.8792
8	LSU	1.8380
9	Oklahoma	1.8374
10	Stanford	1.8097
11	Alabama	1.7954
12	Oklahoma St .	1.7643
13	Michigan St .	1.7466
14	Wisconsin	1.7436
15	Texas A&M	1.6969
16	Virginia Tech	1.6036
17	Nebraska	1.5793
18	Nevada	1.5223
19	South Carolina	1.4623
20	West Virginia	1.4620
21	Florida St .	1.4017
22	Iowa	1.3452
23	Utah	1.3254
24	Hawaii	1.3150
25	Notre Dame	1.2978
26	North Carolina St .	1.2959
27	Mississippi St .	1.2378
28	Florida	1.2124
29	Air Force	1.2120
30	Miami (FL)	1.1846
31	Illinois	1.1800
32	Tulsa	1.1642
33	UCF	1.1617
34	Maryland	1.1375
35	Michigan	1.1245
36	Arizona	1.1199
37	Pittsburgh	1.1130
38	Northern Ill.	1.1116
39	Penn St.	1.1009
40	Navy	1.0962
41	Clemson	1.0956
42	Baylor	1.0873
43	Georgia	1.0863
44	Arizona St .	1.0829
45	Kansas St .	1.0593
46	San Diego St .	1.0556
47	Texas Tech	1.0549
48	East Carolina	1.0060
49	Southern California	1.0059
50	Southern Miss.	1.0027
51	North Carolina	0.9899
52	Connecticut	0.9761
53	California	0.9517
54	Temple	0.9507
55	Fresno St .	0.9445
56	Oregon St .	0.9297
57	Cincinnati	0.9121
58	Ohio	0.9104
59	BYU	0.9077
60	Boston College	0.9050
61	Syracuse	0.8936
62	South Fla.	0.8870
63	Tennessee	0.8864
64	SMU	0.8792
65	Iowa St.	0.8780
66	Houston	0.8669
67	Louisiana Tech	0.8618
68	Mississippi	0.8601
69	Texas	0.8570
70	Toledo	0.8444
71	Kentucky	0.8340
72	Louisville	0.8269
73	Minnesota	0.8153
74	Western Mich.	0.8027
75	Colorado	0.7979
76	Washington	0.7949
77	Northwestern	0.7871
78	Central Mich.	0.7842
79	Georgia Tech	0.7637
80	Purdue	0.7627
81	Army	0.7627
82	Virginia	0.7579
83	Miami (OH)	0.7547
84	Idaho	0.7456
85	Troy	0.7418
86	Kent St .	0.7240
87	Utah St .	0.7141
88	Indiana	0.7062
89	FIU	0.6964
90	Duke	0.6931
91	Arkansas St .	0.6914
92	Marshall	0.6902
93	Wake Forest	0.6880
94	UAB	0.6710
95	Rutgers	0.6629
96	Rice	0.6577
97	UCLA	0.6490
98	La.-Monroe	0.6440
99	Wyoming	0.6415
100	Washington St .	0.6280
101	Tulane	0.6173
102	UTEP	0.6143
103	Kansas	0.6064
104	San Jose St .	0.6055
105	UNLV	0.5998
106	Bowling Green	0.5736
107	Colorado St .	0.5544
108	Vanderbilt	0.5328
109	Middle Tenn.	0.5178
110	North Texas	0.5043
111	La.-Lafayette	0.5018
112	Western Ky.	0.5004
113	Buffalo	0.4986
114	Fla. Atlantic	0.4842
115	Ball St .	0.4467
116	Eastern Mich.	0.4451
117	Akron	0.4409
118	New Mexico	0.4367
119	New Mexico St .	0.4314
120	Memphis	0.4296

Auburn is our number 1, and BCS opponent Oregon 6th. The Ducks rank so relatively low due to their super-easy schedule this year – 76th of 120 teams per the NCAA.

If you want to use these rankings to make a “prediction”, multiply the Power Ranking score (last number) by 27 and compare the values between teams. For example, Florida has a 32.73 (1.2124 x 27) and Penn State a 29.72 (1.1009 x 27) making Florida a 3 point favorite at a neutral location.

Notably, Auburn looks to be about a 9 point favorite over Oregon per this method.

*Methodology

(SD Ratio + SO Ratio+ W/L Record) * SOS = Power Value

Explained further –

SD Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring defense to the best scoring defense. This is made into a ratio that compares it to the top Scoring Defense.

SO Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring offense to the best scoring offense.

W/L record is a calculation of % record done as follows W/(W+(L*L)). In this way losses are given increasing weight. (1 loss is still “1”, but 2 losses are “4”, and so on).

We add the three components together. Then the number is multiplied by the strength of schedule (also a ratio) per the NCAA, The end result is the power ranking.

And So It Ends

2010-12-08T14:58:00.001-05:00

And this time, for good

Quite honestly, I wish he had stayed resigned last year. It was clear from his “efforts” this season that he wasn’t into the demands of the job.

This isn’t to criticize Meyer entirely – he brought Florida unprecedented success. If someone doesn’t want to do a job, whether for health reasons or otherwise, don’t do it. But the question is, “Why the lost year?” If you weren’t into it, why have the fans suffer through a lost season? Now I’ve heard rumors of why he stayed, including that he might have been forced through various circumstances. If so, we ticket season holders are due a refund (fat chance, I know).

Overall however, this is the best decision for the Florida program, even if it is a year late. For our opposition, gloating and celebration is exactly the wrong reaction. Florida under the current coaching staff was a program in decline. Florida with a vacant head coaching position is the best job in the nation. If we want your coach, chances are we’ll get him.

My inside sources tell me expect an A+ hiring, money no object. ESPN is already reporting that “the world is Florida’s oyster”, and that we should “sit back and let the resumes roll in.”

If anyone should be celebrating its Florida fans – celebrating the great legacy of Coach Meyer, and celebrating a very bright future.

UPDATE: That crying sound you hear? It's coming from Miami.

Seven and Five

2010-11-28T09:11:00.000-05:00

In a game that was "closer than the score" (UF's 4 turnovers to FSU's none was the difference), the Gators continued their trend of losing to all ranked teams they played in 2010. Our best win remains USF, and as Miami showed last night, losing to USF is the kind of loss that gets a coach fired.

The Gators end the regular season with the NCAA's 48th Scoring Offense with 29.25 points per game. This is a stat rescued by our scoring on special teams and defense, as we are 78th by Total Offense, or only 356.8 yards per game.

Moreover, that 29.25 points per game camouflages the reality of this season. Here were the points the Gators scored in the 5 losses -

Alabama - 6
LSU - 29
MSU - 7
South Carolina - 14
FSU - 7

Average score in loss = 12.6 ppg (and thankful to LSU for that).

Remember the frustrating days of the bubble screen? Well, we could only wish for an offense of the Zook era right now. In the year that got Ron Zook fired, Florida was ranked 19th nationally in Scoring Offense with 31.83 ppg, and 22nd in Total Offense, with 426.9 ypg. That's 70 more yards per game than what we just witnessed for 2010.

At least under Zook we seemed to have some offensive identity, no matter how inept it seemed. It's been said (ad nauseam) that if you have two quarterbacks you have none - well how does that bit of wisdom apply to a team that seems to think it has three?

Less than none seems to be the answer.

This is, by all accounts, a highly talented team. As such, we won the games one would expect to win on talent alone. With the sole exception of perhaps Georgia, we lost to teams of similar talent.

That leaves coaching. The Gators were embarrassingly, disastrously even, out coached in 2010. What we are doing clearly isn't working, and we all know what the definition of insanity is.

Don't we?

Coaching Carousel

2010-11-27T23:28:00.001-05:00

We will need at least one new coach as Dan McCarney is set to take the head coaching job at North Texas

BCS Title Game Odds Model

2010-11-24T14:27:00.000-05:00

I'm in a bit of a rush today, so I'll reveal my latest in this line of work. For more information, see past posts including the most recent.

Here's what I have for an individual team's chance of going to the BCS title game -

Oregon	85.49%
TCU	59.34%
Auburn	39.01%
Boise	10.62%
LSU	2.76%
OK St	1.17%

"Other" would have a 1.7% chance here.

Auburn's chances decrease this week as the projections I am using have the game against South Carolina narrowing to Auburn as a mere 3 point favorite.

TCU, on the other hand, is essentially done with their season (one easy game remaining at New Mexico), and need AU to lose to take that second spot.

Here are the chances of a particular match-up -

TCU-ORE	49.09%
AUII-ORE	15.40%
AU-ORE	11.93%
BSU-ORE	7.78%
TCU-AUII	4.92%
TCU-AU	4.06%
BSU-AUII	1.17%
BSU-AU	0.93%
LSU-TCU	0.90%
LSU-ORE	0.85%
LSU-BSU	0.52%
OK ST -TCU	0.37%
OK ST- ORE	0.35%
LSU-AUII	0.25%
OK ST-BSU	0.22%
LSU-AU	0.18%
OK ST-AU II	0.10%
OK ST - AU	0.07%
OK ST-LSU	0.06%

"AU II" represents a one-loss Auburn team playing for the title.

Yard Sale

2010-11-24T10:13:00.000-05:00

For those of you who enjoying skiing, a ski accident that involves gear spread all over the slopes is known (some affectionately) as a “yard sale”.

College football is closing in on a yard sale of its own.

For years we’ve been approaching the day when a non-BCS school might compete for a BCS championship. Never mind the absurdity of that statement on its face (could a non-SEC school win an SEC championship?), that day looks to have “done approached”. If non-BCS signatories can play for the “title”, why stop there? James Madison? Anyone, anyone?

Normally fans of the BCS (of which I am not one) would root for Auburn and Oregon to merely win out, thus avoiding this deleterious fate. At least in the case of Oregon, that seems like a safe plan to follow.

As for Auburn, well, that seems to be another matter.

The Cam Newton “situation” is far from sorted out, but it appears at least plausible that Newton is an ineligible player.* Auburn also appears to have gone “all-in”, and will play Newton regardless (it’s reasonably to assume they have no chance of winning otherwise).

So we have the very real possibility that Auburn, should they win out, could be stripped of its wins at some later date. Newton, currently the Heisman favorite, may have to give up that award a-la Reggie Bush.**

So for those that want a clean and conclusive ending to this NCAA season, Auburn may not provide that. So root for Alabama, right?

Well, if ‘Bama wins, we are going to get TCU and/or Boise State against Oregon.

So this is where college football finds itself as of now –

- Oregon wins out all the way, and the BCS marches blithely on for another day, or,

- Auburn wins out, and the term “tainted title” takes on a whole new meaning, or,

- TCU/Boise State statute-of-liberty’s their way to a BCS title, despite not being a BCS team, and the whole BCS is forever changed.

For those of us who are non-BCS fans, grab your popcorn. This is going to be a doozy.

*Without getting exhaustive, it appears that someone soliciting benefits on behalf of a student-athlete is against NCAA rules, which Cecil Newton appears to have done. I’m not suggesting Auburn did anything wrong in the recruitment of Cam, just that Cam may be ineligible. (Think Reggie Bush, USC).

**The Bush incident stained the Heisman. Newton may befoul it totally.

Business Proposition

2010-11-19T14:27:00.000-05:00

Here's what I'm thinking - I'm going to start a business matching prospective college football players with "institutions expressing interest".*

However, we'll make sure the student athletes don't know anything of the arrangement (let's call this War Eagle deniability). All negotiations will be made by their parents.

I'm thinking a a 20% agent's cut. Prospective partners hereby solicited.

* Also known as cash money, homie.

BCS Title Game Odds Model

2010-11-17T13:29:00.000-05:00

In which Auburn’s chances increase greatly, and I rule out a couple of teams

The math behind what I’m doing with this is pretty simple – try to estimate the chances a team wins out, and thus the chances it plays for the “national” title. The hard part is deciding which teams fall where.

Oregon and Auburn are easy. The two teams are a strong 1-2 in the BCS, and if they win out they will play each other. It’s deciding who’s next in line if one of them should lose that’s tricky.

For this week’s model, I’ve come to a new conclusion that sharply increases Auburn’s chances of playing for the BCS title – I believe that if Auburn loses “respectably” to Alabama, and wins the SEC title, they will still play for the BCS title ahead of any other team. Here’s why –

-Auburn is a close second in the human polls, and a lock number 1 in the computers.

- Auburn, after playing Alabama, will have the nation’s toughest schedule. This is before playing for the SEC title game.

The hard part was including one loss Auburn in the spreadsheet I’ve created. My solution was to “create” a second team I called “Auburn II”. Auburn II is a team that loses a respectable game to Alabama then wins the SECC. (More on this in a moment)

Also, I did not model a title game between TCU and Boise State. In my opinion, the human voters simply won’t let it happen.

Next, I’ve virtually eliminated the Big 10 teams from any contention. Wisconsin, OSU and Michigan State are 7th, 9th and 12th in the BCS, and their computer rankings are even worse (12th, 13th and 10th, respectively). There’s simply not enough games left to be played for them to jump up.

Lastly, I still think some Big 12 team has a shot. Nebraska is 8th overall (and 8th in the computers), and Oklahoma State, though 10th overall, is 6th in the computers, tied with Boise State. I think the Cowboys are a long shot, but if they win out the humans should come around, and with a couple of key losses they could make it.

With Auburn & Auburn II combined, here are the estimated chances of a team playing for the BCS title -

Oregon	74.62%
Auburn	55.86%
TCU	43.88%
Boise State	18.00%
LSU	3.73%
Nebraska	1.87%
"Other"	1.28%
Oklahoma State	0.77%

“Other” in this case is mostly 6^th ranked Stanford, who would need 2 Oregon losses, so I didn’t model them specifically.

And here are the individual matchup choices. AUII is a 1-loss Auburn team –

TCU-ORE	24.90%
AUII-ORE	24.18%
BSU-ORE	13.37%
TCU-AUII	11.43%
AU-ORE	10.20%
TCU-AU	5.59%
BSU-AUII	2.34%
LSU-TCU	1.16%
LSU-ORE	1.16%
BSU-AU	1.10%
LSU-BSU	0.70%
NEB - ORE	0.58%
NEB-TCU	0.57%
LSU-AUII	0.42%
NEB-BSU	0.34%
OK ST -TCU	0.24%
OK ST- ORE	0.24%
NEB-AU II	0.21%
LSU-AU	0.18%
OK ST-BSU	0.14%
NEB - AU	0.09%
OK ST-AU II	0.09%
NEB-LSU	0.08%
OK ST - AU	0.04%
OK ST-LSU	0.03%

As for Oklahoma State – LSU, “So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

What is Auburn Doing?

2010-11-16T11:35:00.001-05:00

Senator Bluarsky has been all over the coverage of “Cam-gate”.* His most recent post has the following thoughts –

Let’s say that (1) the NCAA finds that Cecil Newton’s solicitation of money from MSU representatives is a violation of NCAA regs such that Cam is declared ineligible; (2) that ruling from the NCAA doesn’t come until after the Iron Bowl but before the SECCG; (3) Auburn elects to play Newton in the Iron Bowl (if they let him play against Georgia, he’s playing against Alabama, right?) and wins; and (4) Auburn’s knowledge of rules violations is limited to what it was warned about this past week by the NCAA. So, if the final decision made is to vacate Auburn’s last two regular season wins – vacate as opposed to forfeit, that is - which team represents the SEC West in the SECCG? After all, Auburn would stay undefeated in SEC play. And if the Newton-less Tigers were to win the SEC championship and remain undefeated, would they play in the BCS title game?

Needless to say, this thing has many tentacles.

Despite the outcome as it affects the SEC and the BCS, it seems to come down to 2 scenarios in regard to Auburn’s handling of the matter -

1. Auburn has properly vetted the issue, and Newton is eligible, or,

2. Auburn is acting in manner that, if not in complete violation of NCAA regulations, is reckless in the utmost.

If it’s number 1, “we” all owe Auburn (and Newton) an apology. But what if it’s number 2?

What if Auburn has decided, as some have alleged, that there is essentially no downside to continuing to play Newton? Under this scenario, Auburn either knows Newton is ineligible, or simply doesn’t want to know. They have decided they have already come this far, and that the possible penalties ahead don’t outweigh what they have to gain (Heisman, BCS title game, Championship(s)).

If THAT is Auburn’s calculation, where does that leave the NCAA?

In the most recent incident of an ineligible player we have the USC / Reggie Bush example. In that case, the penalties included the USC athletic department being placed on four years of probation, the football program being given a two-year postseason ban and a loss of 30 total scholarships, and the vacating of victories starting in December 2004 and running through the 2005 season, including a BCS championship victory over Oklahoma.

These penalties assessed against USC are “the toughest penalties since levying Southern Methodist with the "death penalty" in 1986.”

The question remains however, was it worth it for USC? Do their fans think the two years without a postseason game are a fair trade for the glory year of 2005? And how much money did those glory years bring in?

In Auburn’s case, what if they have decided to play Newton figuring their worst case scenario is something akin to what USC suffered, and that the aforementioned benefits outweigh the penalties, especially at this point? Seasons like the current one are very few and far in between.

If that is Auburn’s calculation, there is a serious distinction here. In the case of USC, the Bush allegations came to public attention well after he was done playing for USC. Auburn is continuing to play Newton in the face of national scrutiny, including NCAA and FBI investigations.

For Auburn, the NCAA would almost have to come down harder on the Tigers, or risk essentially losing control of the sport. In the modern era of college football, with all the money at stake, what message would the NCAA be sending if it is seen to be more rewarding to utilize ineligible players? If the culture becomes “win now, pay later”? We know players of Bush’s or Newton’s caliber have personally very little to lose, as the NFL awaits. What message would the NCAA have to send a school that so recklessly flaunted the association’s rules, based apparently on a calculation that the upside outweighed the downside?

Auburn has been in trouble before. If they have decided to play on, damned be the consequences, the NCAA must make USC’s penalty look minor by comparison. And, in the case they actually paid for Newton, nothing less than the NCAA “death penalty” will do.

Does Auburn know what's its doing? My concern would be that the answer is a calculated "yes".

*(I prefer Cash Cam – the “gate” thing is overdone).

Projecting the BCS

2010-11-15T15:55:00.001-05:00

In a week that saw no absolute movement in the BCS top ten, the media meme seems to be “Boise gains on TCU”.

While the gap between the two narrowed, it would be more accurate to say both fell, just that Boise didn’t fall quite as much. To see what I mean, here were the BCS standings after week 11 (with average) –

1	Oregon	0.9638
2	Auburn	0.9611
3	TCU	0.9259
4	Boise State	0.8662
5	LSU	0.817
6	Stanford	0.7454
7	Wisconsin	0.7349
8	Nebraska	0.7298
9	Ohio State	0.6613
10	Oklahoma State	0.6211

And here’s this week, week 12 -

1	Oregon	0.9753
2	Auburn	0.9687
3	TCU	0.8966
4	Boise State	0.8634
5	LSU	0.8243
6	Stanford	0.7553
7	Wisconsin	0.7258
8	Nebraska	0.7203
9	Ohio State	0.6674
10	Oklahoma State	0.6601

BCS rankings are determined by averaging 3 scores (2 human polls and computers polls). Apparently because of TCU's poor performance against San Diego State, and Utah’s blowout to Notre Dame, both the human polls elevated Boise ahead of TCU (Boise is 3rd in both now, TCU 4th).

In the computer polls TCU also suffered, falling from 2nd by average to 3rd, with their average falling from .950 to .890.

But as I mentioned, Boise also fell by average, despite their rise in the human polls. Their computer ranking went from 5th to 6th, or .790 to .780.

As we’ve discussed before, and as the BCS “experts” often seem to miss, what’s really important in your average and it’s relation to other’s. Here’s where TCU’s move verses Boise gets interesting. TCU’s average of the two human polls after week 11 was .9135, and Boise’s was .9044. After week 12, TCU fell to .9000 while Boise rose very modestly to .9051. Simply put, there wasn’t that much of a move.

In fact with the computers Boise, now in 6th rather than 5th (Stanford jumped them) is in a relatively worse position after week 12. And while TCU’s position at 3rd in the computers is relatively strong (votes of 4th, 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 3rd), Boise’s 6th is tenuous (votes of 5th, 4th, 6th, 7th, 12th and 8th)*

The wild card here is Boise’s game against Nevada. Is Nevada a tough enough opponent to the computers to elevate Boise beyond their 6th overall ranking? As of now, I’m not sure. I use the NCAA’s Toughest Schedule grid as a proxy for the computers, and they place the cumulative toughness (includes teams yet to be played) of Boise State at 65th nationally with a .4900, and TCU 74th with a .4747. Presently, TCU is 55th nationally, and Boise State is 87th.

In other words, pretty close, but Boise will gain SOS.

Then again, deciding whether the 65^th or 74^th toughest schedule should play for a “national” title by using Nevada as a tiebreaker is a whole other topic of discussion.

*(When averaging computers, the best and worst is thrown out).

A Failed Year

2010-11-15T10:07:00.000-05:00

I was going to do a post regarding the embarrassment witnessed in the Swamp this past Saturday (personally witnessed, in my case). Defensively, South Carolina looked as if they had tapped Addazio’s headset and knew the plays as soon as they were called. It would seem difficult to be entirely predictable when you have 3 quarterbacks, but we seem to have accomplished the task. We allowed South Carolina’s defense to dictate our offensive play calling entirely, which is not acceptable. Sure, the “beauty” of the read-option spread is taking what the defense allows, but we seem to have evolved that to its ultimate limits – allowing the defense to restrict our play calling.

By, after Saturday, why limit myself to just one miserable game? The entire season is a failure.

It seems impossible to remember, but the Gators were the Coaches’ Poll preseason number 3. We had experienced playmakers, and an offensive line comprised almost entirely of upper classmen.

This team has managed to go 6-4 (so far), but look at the difference between the teams defeated and the teams defeated by –

Florida Wins (6 games)

Cumulative record of teams defeated: 29-32
SEC Record of teams defeated: 7-21
Best record of a team defeated: USF (6-3)
Average NCAA Scoring Defense Rank of team defeated: 61.6

No team beaten by Florida is currently ranked in any poll.

Florida Losses (4 games)

Current Records and BCS Rankings:

Alabama 8-2 (11th)
LSU 9-1 (5th)
Mississippi State 7-3 (21st)
South Carolina 7-3 (17th)

Cumulative SEC record of teams lost to: 18-9
Average NCAA Scoring Defense Rank of team defeated by: 15

Arguably the best team the Gators have beaten this year is South Florida. We have been beaten by every decent team we faced.

A look at our standings in the NCAA statistical categories is perhaps even more revealing. First, our defense –

Scoring Defense – 35th ranked, 21.2 ppg.

The trick about scoring defense is it includes points on turnovers and special teams. While 35th in the nation isn’t too appalling, our defense is actually better than that, as shown by –

Total Defense – 11th ranked, 302.8 ypg.

The defense isn’t the problem.

Now, look at our offense –

Scoring Offense – 50th ranked, 29.6 ppg.

This includes points scored by our defense and special teams. Once again, the total stat is more revealing –

Total Offense – 84th ranked, 346.3 ypg.

Let me put 84th ranked in context for you – that’s one rank better than Louisiana Lafayette. Even Tennessee is ranked 73rd overall.

Now let’s look at the components –

Rushing Offense – 70th ranked, 146.4 ypg
Passing Offense – 76th ranked, 199.5 ypg
Passing Efficiency Offense – 92nd ranked

Our passing offense is just better than FAU’s (198.6 ypg). But the real tale here is Passing Efficiency. Good teams excel at this stat. We are ranked between 1-9 Eastern Michigan, and 4-5 Rutgers, at 91st and 93rd, respectively.

As I’ve written before, passing yardage isn’t that important to overall success, but Passing Efficiency is. Auburn, for example, is ranked behind us in Passing Offense (79th, with 197.3 ypg) but 2nd nationally in Passing Efficiency. In other words, they throw efficiently and mistake free when they throw. We don’t.

One more stat – Florida ranks 80th nationally in Time of Possession (29:15). This is a direct condemnation of our inefficient offense, and it’s amazing our defense has held up as well as it has.

Was there going to be offensive slippage in 2010 with the loss of Tim Tebow? Of course. Should have been this offense?

No damned way.

FSU now looms as our “bowl game” (and believe me, I’m not taking App State for granted). Beyond that there is nothing to play for.

Now is the time for change.

Non-Functional?

2010-11-15T09:55:00.002-05:00

Does that translate from coach-speak to english as really fucking bad? If so then I agree.

2 first downs in the first half.

We were down 15-7 at the half and had no chance of winning the game.

The ultimate Urban Meyer apologist, Lou Holtz had this as a response to Reece Davis's claim that unless changes are made by the Florida staff at halftime South Carolina is going to win this game: "The things they need to change, you cannot change during halftime."

We are 10 games into a season and we still haven't figured out what type of offense we want to be, so we have no offense at all. In fact, our offense is the very definition of non-functional.

Swamp Turd

2010-11-14T00:08:00.000-05:00

First of all, congratulations to Coach Spurrier and the Gamecocks. You were the better team, and have a far greater chance of representing the SEC East well in the title game. Auburn would have rolled us like a cheap carpet.

As for the Gators, a more pathetic offensive performance I cannot recall (and I will go looking). On offense, we simply aren't playing football. Football is what South Carolina played, as they lined up like men and rammed the ball down our throats. I don't blame the defense, who spent nearly 41 minutes on the field. We run some effeminate gadget/gimmick nonsense, and deserve to lose for no other reason than than a disrespect for the sport.

Tonight's performance was pure embarrassment. Humiliation. Literally, without excuse.

What to Watch For This Weekend

2010-11-12T09:27:00.002-05:00

1. Recruits, recruits and more recruits. Early in the year Tallahassee was the in place be, especially after picking up the pledge of top 10 overall recruit James Wilder, Jr. Well now the Seminoles are imploding like only the Seminoles can(wide right again?) and the shine has long been off the program in Coral Gables, so the recruits are flocking once again to Gainesville. Here is an abbreviated list of the recruits scheduled to be in attendance Saturday night:

Sammy Watkins - 5 star WR Fort Myers, FL

George Farmer - 5 star WR Gardena, CA

Aaron Lynch - 5 star DL Cape Coral, FL - former ND commit

Jeff Driskel - 5 star QB Oviedo, FL - committed to Florida

Marqise Lee - 4 star S Gardena, CA

Jason Gibson - 4 star OLB/DE Gardena, CA

Jordan Prestwood - 4 star OL Plant City - former ND commit

Junior Pome'e - 4 star TE Moreno Valley, CA - teammate of Ronald Powell

Jerrell Adams - 4 star DE/TE Summerton, SC

There are 20-25 more scheduled attendees and they read like a who's who of the 2011, 2012 and 2013 prospects.

2. More Reed less Burton. Coming off last weekend's performance against the vaunted Vandy defense, Jordan Reed has earned more snaps at QB. Expect to see Reed line up as QB for about 30 snaps against the Gamecocks. He provides for a much more difficult matchup for defenses - you know given the fact that he can actually throw the ball, which is a skill Trey Burton hasn't completely mastered yet. In addtion, Burton gives us a "big back" for the power running game.

3. Rainey, Gillislee and a little Demps. Jeff Demps is not 100%, but he is healthy enough to be a factor in this game. I would imagine we will continue to see Rainey get a ton of touches both in the backfield and as a receiver. Gillislee will continue to be the red zone back. Given the lack of depth on the South Carolina defense we might not see Demps until the 2nd half, after the Gamecocks have had to deal with a up-tempo offense for a little while.

4. Deonte starts Hammond plays more. Senior Deonte Thompson will continue to receive the recognition as the starting WR, however Frankie Hammond has earned the right to play more snaps and he will. I also think we will see a ton of Andre Debose this Saturday.

5. How will we stop the blitz? While Ellis Johnson isn't known to be a blitz on every down type of coach, I would expect to see a wide variety of blitzes from the Gamecock defense Saturday night, especially since we have yet to show the ability to pick up the blitz on a consistent basis. More disturbing is if you put pressure on Halapio to make a decision on which blitzer he should block, more often then not he chooses incorrectly. To take advantage of the Gamecocks when they blitz, expect to see more screens, especially jailbreak screens to the WRs.

6. Stop Lattimore. The defense's main focus will be stopping Marcus Lattimore - the sensational freshman running. In South Carolina's 5 wins he has 600 yards. In their losses he averages less than 50 yards a game. Look for Shariff Floyd to have his breakout game. Floyd has been a beast lately and if you throw in the extra motivation of playing against the Gamecocks (he chose UF over USCe on signing day) you have the right ingredients for a breakout game.

7. JJ on AJ all day. Janoris Jenkins has shut down Julio Jones (ok maybe Bama shut itself down that day) and AJ Green so far this year. I expect to see Jenkins mirror Ashlon Jeffrey all night Saturday.

An interesting thing to remember is that Coach Meyer and the staff having been calling this week "Championship Week" since Monday. The reason for doing this is that the team is so young, you have to find a way to stress the importance of the game and effort that is needed this week. I have heard nothing but good things coming out of Gainesville regarding practice, and while we still have some injuries we are as healthy as we have been in quite some time.

8. What happens: Brantley throws the ball about 22-25 times, Rainey has a big day receiving, Jordan Reed has a big day running the ball and Demps breaks off a long TD run. On defense, Lattimore isn't as healthy as the word out of Columbia would like us to believe and the game is put in Stephen Garcia's hands. Garcia plays admirably and Gurley gives us fits catching the ball. In the end, the Gators pull out the victory and head to the SECCG in Atlanta, which is something I would have never thought I could say a month ago.

Pick 6

1. Bama v. Miss. St. Bama has been struggling but Miss. St. is one dimensional on offense (and not the good dimension either). Bama wins by 10 in a good game.

2. Auburn v. UGA. This week must have been a nightmare for the Auburn players and staff and I am sure that they cannot wait to get on the field. Problem is that Georgia is a pretty good team. I think Georgia gives the Tigers all they can handle for a half and then Cameron Newton shows the Auburn faithful that they are getting what they paid for. Speaking of which, does anyone else think $180,000 is an odd figure? Why $180,000, why not $200,000? How do you settle on that figure? Of course Marcus Dupree only wanted a double-wide trailer to be sent to his mom to play at Oklahoma so I guess the mind works in mysterious ways.

3. Clemson v. FSU. I am hearing that Christian Ponder is out at least this week and maybe for the remainder of the season. Clemson puts the clamps on EJ Manuel and defeats the Noles.

4. Ohio State v. Penn. State. Why is this game on TV? Buckeyes win.

5. Oregon v. Cal. This is the one trap game left on the Ducks' schedule, but Cal's starting QB is only playing his 2nd game. Oregon wins by 30.

6. USC v. Arizona. Remember when USC owned the PAC 10? Well team prophylatic has 3 losses already this year and the Wildcats will give them their 4th.

Florida – South Carolina: What the Predictors Say

2010-11-11T13:22:00.000-05:00

If you’ve been following my BCS Championship Game Odds Model, you know I use statfox.com for my predictions of future games. Statfox has been shown to be among the most accurate in predicting both wins and ATS (against the spread).

Well statfox has Florida as a huge favorite over South Carolina, with a prediction of a 18 point win (with 4 of those points accounting for home field).

Jeff Sagarin, on the other hand, only has Florida as a 4 point favorite, with 3 points for the home field.

As for Vegas, they currently have us at 6 ½ points over the Gamecocks.

Teams favored by 6 ½ win about 66% of the time. If you had told me that, after losing to Mississippi State, we had a 66% chance of still playing for the SEC title I would have taken it then, and I’ll take it now.

More Signs of the End Times

2010-11-10T11:00:00.000-05:00

Look at these Vegas lines this week –

Oklahoma State at Texas – Cowboys by 6

Utah at Notre Dame – Utes by 5 ½

USC at Arizona – Wildcats by 4 ½

Notice that both Texas and ND are significant dogs, at home.

Then there’s this –

2010 ACC STANDINGS

ATLANTIC	CONF	OVR
Florida State	4-2	6-3
Maryland	3-2	6-3
North Carolina State	3-2	6-3
Clemson	3-3	5-4
Boston College	2-4	4-5
Wake Forest	1-5	2-7
COASTAL	CONF	OVR
#20 Virginia Tech	5-0	7-2
Miami (FL)	4-2	6-3
North Carolina	3-2	6-3
Georgia Tech	3-3	5-4
Virginia	1-4	4-5
Duke	1-4	3-6

That’s right – the Hokies unbeaten in ACC play.

Repeat after me – “Your 2010 ACC Champions – The Dukes of James Madison!”

Cash Cam - Not Denying Nothing

2010-11-10T10:00:00.000-05:00

Stretching multiple negatives beyond their physical boundries, we have this from the Reverend -

"I'm not going to confirm nor deny nothing that has been taking place," Cecil Newton said.

Smoke. Fire. Conflagration.