Ad Predictions by Media Type

ZenithOptimedia predicts the following for 2010 global advertising spending by media:

• TV: Up 4.36 percent with 40.3 percent market share.
• Newspapers: Down 3.8 percent with 21.7 percent market share.
• Internet: Up 12.9 percent with 13.9 percent market share.
• Magazines: Down 4.4 percent with 9.6 percent market share.
• Radio: Down 0.5 percent with 7.5 percent market share.
• Outdoor: Up 1.72 percent with 6.5 percent market share.
• Cinema: Up 3.07 percent with 0.5 percent market share.

Communications firm Carat, as reported by MarketingProfs, expects the United States — in specific — to follow a similar ad-spending pattern:

• TV: Up 4 percent.
• Newspapers: Down 8.3 percent
• Online: Up 10 percent.
• Radio: Up 2.5 percent.
• Magazines: Down 5 percent.

Last, but not least, in its April revised forecast (via MediaBuyerPlanner), MAGNA raised its 2010 expectations, predicting a 3 percent rise in U.S. ad spending, including revenues from the Olympics and spending on elections, to 3 percent. This is MAGNA’s second correction of 2010, including a January forecast predicting flat growth for U.S. ad spending.


MAGNA’s U.S. outlook is bullish for the Internet and TV, but bearish for print:

• Search: Up 16.8 percent.
• Local TV: Up 16.2 percent.
• Internet: Up 12.8 percent.
• National TV: Up 10.2 percent.
• Magazines: Down 6.9 percent.
• Local Newspapers: Down 10 percent.
• National Newspapers: Down 11 percent.

Industry revenues will rise from $40.5 billion in the first quarter of 2009 to $41.3 billion during the first quarter of 2010, according to a MAGNA press release.


“Among the various sectors, television remains the largest advertising platform in the United States,” MAGNA said. “The $56.0 billion dollar segment will grow by 9.8% during 2010, slightly higher than our prior 8.5% expectation. This growth will erase 2009’s losses and return the sector to levels observed between 2006 and 2008.”

What Media Executives are Saying about the Future

Overall, ad spending is expected to grow an average of 3 percent in 2010, while interactive ad spending is expected to grow 10 percent, according to an AdMedia Partners online survey of global senior business executives in advertising, marketing services, digital marketing and related industries.


The majority of media executives (65 percent) said that online revenue will account for more than 50 percent of total revenue within the next five years at business-to-business publications. For newspapers, 44 percent said online revenue will outstrip print within five years and 38 percent said that it is likely to take 5-10 years.


Mobile and social media marketing are also projected to grow.


“These evolving media and service offerings are considered to be important growth opportunities increasingly requested by content owners and advertisers,” according to the AdMedia Partners report. “Just like the early days of the Internet, media companies are experimenting with various business models to monetize these opportunities.”


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

2010 Advertising Forecast: Partly Sunny

It’s a turnaround happily predicted by others in the advertising industry. Carat, as recently reported by the Guardian, also adjusted its outlook, predicting advertising to grow 2.9 percent this year, up from the 1 percent the company forecasted in October 2009.


Likewise, the results of a new AdMedia Partners survey indicates that worldwide senior business executives in the media business expect ad spending to grow 3 percent in 2010.


Finally, in MAGNA’s recent update, the company predicted that, excluding political and Olympic advertising on TV, “on a normalized bases the U.S. advertising economy will grow by 1.6 percent during 2010, ahead of our prior forecast of flat year-to-year growth.”


MAGNA’s long-term forecast is also rosier: “As expectations for the broader economy have improved over an extended time-frame as well, we are increasing our long-term forecasts, and now expect growth to average 3.5 percent between 2010 and 2015, up from +2.3 percent previously.”

Digital Advertising Leads the Charge

While traditional advertising media suffered the most from the global recession, digital advertising continued to grow and, “in fact, the downturn probably accelerated the shift of budgets from traditional media by focusing advertisers’ minds on the importance of measurable return on investment,” according to ZenithOptimedia.


This was confirmed at a recent Ad Age Digital Conference in New York where corporate speakers agreed they were now spending a bigger portion of the advertising pie — 20 to 25 percent — on digital advertising.


“We expect 10.7 percent growth in online advertising revenues, led by 17.0 percent growth in paid search,” MAGNA said. “Much of this growth will be due to the increasing ease with which many advertisers — especially those who are endemic to the Internet as well as small and mid-sized companies — can accomplish their goals through digital media.”


In the AdMedia Partners online survey, more than three-fourths of media executives said they are considering the expansion of online services or are entering into new online marketing businesses, including:

• Social media marketing (55 percent).
• Mobile marketing (48 percent).
• Search marketing (41 percent).
• CRM/Analytics (41 percent).
• E-mail marketing (35 percent).

Media Spending Considerations

In the past, marketers have typically planned year-over-year advertising increases. However, the 2009 recession has changed that dramatically, with most brands putting cost-cutting measures into place. The forecasts mentioned above indicate that spending will rise again in 2010, albeit cautiously. And with increased demand on media inventory, we can expect to see increases in media pricing — dramatic increases, in some cases.


BrandCottage will continue to report on these trends as we move through 2010.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

Source: Newsweek.com

By Patricia Wilson


The UPS guy delivered my new iPad and I have to say it did not disappoint. Although the iPad is not a replacement for a computer, it comes very close. In a few words, the iPad is built for SPEED, MOBILITY and FUN.

• It’s really fast. I was surprised by the speed, the first thing you notice using the iPad.
• It’s extremely mobile and much easier to bring along to Starbucks or the front porch than my laptop. Mobility may be it’s greatest asset, giving you the ability to go anywhere — the beach, the sundeck, the bedroom, the living room, the kitchen and anywhere with wireless access. I can see every family owning at least one as an easy media access device.
• The user experience is just plain fun. Everything looks good on the iPad. Consuming media on this device is a compelling experience: books, music, photos, the Web, e-mail, etc. Reading USA TODAY and The New York Times were especially rewarding.
• I love the touch screen, something you already know if you own an iPhone. But using the iPad makes the iPhone seem suddenly tiny.
• It’s a great size, but it does get a little heavy after holding it awhile. I’m still trying to figure out the best way to hold the device and type — you do have to place it on a table or prop it on your lap.

Overall, the iPad is elegant and sleek. Like all Apple machines, it’s just cooler than your average-looking technology. I love the simplicity of the device and the packaging — typical Apple.


A Newsweek article speculates that there’s more to come:


“Paul Saffo, a tech forecaster and professor at Stanford University, expects Apple to roll out a family of other iPad models—a small one the size of a paperback, a big one the size of two magazine pages—perhaps as soon as this fall. (Apple won’t confirm, natch.)”


The iPhone, in short, is intuitive, easy to use and a lot of fun. As a media professional, there is little doubt this will make media consumption even more fun.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

The campaign starts today and targets advertisers and media buyers — essentially people just like us. The campaign emphasizes USA TODAY’s continued leadership role and connection with its readers via print, USATODAY.com and on the iPhone.


By the way, if you haven’t seen USA TODAY’s mobile application, you really should. It’s impressive. It “share article” feature fluidly links with Twitter, Facebook, text and e-mail applications to enable the easy sharing of information with your communities.


The campaign is running print and online advertising in trades such as Mashable, Adage, Adweek, Brandweek, Mediaweek, TechCrunch and CNNMoney.com. Ads will also appear on television, on Facebook and LinkedIn, and on elevator screens.


Campaign components also include guerrilla marketing and social media tactics.


The multimedia world is rapidly changing and this is producing many opportunities for small, experienced agencies. What wins today are strong ideas, speed and flexibility. We are humbled to be part of the USA TODAY brand initiative.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

The benefits of magazine print: the intrinsic value of the glossy format, quality design, long-form journalism, beautiful photography and highly engaged readers.

Citing third-party data, the Magazine Publishers of America reports a healthy consumer outlook for magazines, compared to other media. Tops on its  highlight list is the fact that magazine readership has increased over the last five years. Yes, there has been a shift in readership and advertising to online. Despite the “Magazines Hemorrhage Cash” strories, more than 90 percent of Americans say they read magazines.

Print Versus Online Advertising

Magazine print continues to provide many advertising strengths: the intrinsic value of the glossy format, quality design, long-form journalism, beautiful photography and highly engaged readers. Of course, digital has its own set of intrinsic strengths: e-commerce, clickability, interactivity and trackability — to name a few.


Apple, for example, one of the most iconic brands in the world, fully understands the power of print. Even though Apple, itself, is a digital company. Magazines, for Apple, remain a cornerstone for their branding initiatives and product launches. This is true for many other top brands, as well.

Multimedia Integration

The lesson here, for marketers, is to look beyond the hype of digital to achieve desired results. All media can be valuable. Not all media can achieve all goals. Seasoned marketers understand that. In today’s multimedia world, integrated plans often work best — allowing advertisers to account for different readership styles, preferences and needs for various degrees of engagement levels.


Kudos to the magazine publishers for standing up for print and putting the facts out there. Magazine publishers, of course, have been wise to address the digital shift: adding multi-platform options, social engagement and integration strategies to the mix. But this is no reason to throw magazine print properties under the bus.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

• Creators, 24 percent of adults.
• Conversationalists, 33 percent.
• Critics, 37 percent.
• Collectors, 20 percent.
• Joiners, 59 percent.
• Spectators, 70 percent.
• Inactives, 17 percent.

In practice with our clients, rather than getting too hung up in the profile percentages of a company’s target consumers, BrandCottage thinks it’s best to account for all the styles in creating a well-rounded social media program. The goal of any social media program, when done correctly, should be to move consumers as far up the engagement ladder as possible, while still leaving room for spectators and joiners to get value from their social media interactions with your brand.


However, we most certainly need to account for the growing number of Conversationalists on sites such as Twitter and Facebook.


“Conversationalists intrigue me,” said Josh Bernoff in the groundswell blog. (Bernoff, along with Forrester’s Charlene Li, are the authors of Groundswell. ” They’re 56 percent female, more than any other group in the ladder. While they’re among the youngest of the groups, 70 percent are still 30 and up.”


“By following Conversationalists, you get free consumer insights,” noted Riley in her blog. “Conversationalists are your customers and they are talking about you. Listen to them.”


Indeed. Listen and begin to engage with your consumers. Participation on the high end of the ladder will continue to grow. If you haven’t already, now is the time to build a solid social media foundation.


Related BrandCottage posts: Why I’m a Power Tweeter on Twitter and The Essential 7 Ps of Social Media Relations. Also, see PR Squared’s blog post on Forrester’s Social Technographics Ladder.


Barry Lawrence is a BrandCottage partner in charge of public relations and social media relations.

By Barry Lawrence


BrandCottage is pleased to announce that one of its clients, Johnston & Murphy, is maintaining its long-standing tradition as shoemaker to the presidents. Johnston & Murphy recently presented President Barack Obama with a custom pair of dress shoes and boots.


We think this is a creative and remarkable service and marketing campaign, emphasizing Johnston & Murphy’s commitment to style and craftsmanship.


The Obama boots are especially interesting, inspired by a pair that Johnston & Murphy custom-made for President Lincoln in 1861. The company has handcrafted footwear for every American president since Millard Fillmore in 1850.


Johnston & Murphy created www.shoesofthepresidents.com to commemorate its 160-year tradition.


Barry Lawrence is a BrandCottage partner in charge of public relations and social media relations.

ed by marketers. More importantly, the report, Building Brands Online: An Interactive Advertising Action Plan, attempts to provide a road map to improve the industry’s growing negative perceptions about the brand-building value of online advertising.

The IAB/Bain report is a much needed response to last year’s findings that online advertising inventory is highly undervalued by brand

marketers. At the heart of the problem, according to an Online Media Daily story:

. . . online sales organizations have lacked the sophistication necessary to turn the perceptions advertisers and agencies have about the value of online advertising . . .

The report also identifies five key obstacles that have kept marketers from shifting more of their budgets online:

• Online ad formats and creative have not evolved to meet marketers’ needs.
• Media companies lack category expertise when they sell to brand marketers and engage with them too late in the media planning process.
• Marketers want integrated campaigns instead of platform-specific media programs.
• While marketers see high value in online advertising and believe that it could be effective at all stages of the purchase funnel, current industry practices inhibit greater investment of brand ad dollars.
• Marketers express needs for differentiated services for their brands and believe that media companies and agencies have to meet those differentiated needs for online advertising to grow.

Measurement Intoxication

What I find most interesting is that the once-mighty “click” measurement is now out of favor, having underperformed miserably and showing no signs of being resurrected.


“Ultimately, marketers are looking for media companies to offer a true triple-play service model from direct response to awareness to high impact brand engagement,” said John Frelinghuysen in a press release. Frelinghuysen is a partner in Bain & Company’s media practice and lead author of the study.


As a classically trained media planner, I place a high value on measurability. However, just as with traditional media, we must be careful not to chase what we can measure – what fits under the microscope and what shows some ROI – just so we can rattle back some good news to CMOs and CFOs. Click rates, foe example, may NOT really be a true indication of what’s driving the Brand long term. We must avoid becoming over-intoxicated on the wrong digital measurements.


Despite all the Technorati talk of measurement over the past few years, it appears online advertising has come full circle. It is now faced with the exact same question we’ve always asked about media, including the traditional television, print, radio and outdoor channels: How do we best measure online advertising’s full impact on our brand?


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.

• I’m more informed. My fellow Twitterers provide me with updates, knowledge and thought leadership about my field. I am educated daily about emerging media technologies, shifting consumer trends, best brand practices, marketing challenges, new social media ideas and other trends.




• I’m more networked. For me, Twitter is by far the furthest reaching networking tool I have seen in my 20+ years as a professional. Next to personal relationships, it’s the single most important new tool for maintaining business relationships.




• I’m never out of the buzz loop. Twitter search  and its trending topics tools make it easy and fast to view the hot buzz of the day — both within my industry and through the World Wide Web. This helps our agency in the work we do for our clients, giving us the ability to take advantage of new branding or social relations opportunities.




• I’m building a voice and brand personality. The added benefit here is that BrandCottage can engage its clients and future customers by sharing valuable information with them. In addition, these conversations have become two-way and far reaching.




• I’m building trust with influencers. We’ve seen our partnerships and status in the media industry grow immeasurably with Twitter. It’s helping us find new opportunities and new ways to help each other — benefits that we return to our clients as added services and improved return on investment.

If you want to see what all the Twitter fuss is about, don’t just dip your toe in the water. Dive in, completely.


See you @BrandCottage.


Patricia Wilson is the founder of BrandCottage, a media marketing company with offices in New York, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.