Derek Lowe vs Jon Niese. What a pitching matchup, eh? The chaos started before the game even started, with the one and only Javy Lopez delivering the lineup card.

I just noticed, he’s wearing David Ross’s number. DAMN YOU ROSS, YOU NUMBER CANNIBAL! Anyway. Lowe got absolutely hammered today. The real issue was apparently a blister on his back toe that he normally tapes up, but opted not to this spring. Slick Derek…real slick. Anyway, he exited after one inning and 5 hits. YIKES.

Braves answer back in the bottom of the first with 3 runs on only 2 hits…Niese ended up hitting Eric Hinske, and walked a pair…the scoring was highlighted by a 2 run double by Melky Cabrera, proving that the Melkman can indeed deliver. The second and third innings were scoreless for each team. Kris Medlen came on in relief of Lowe, and was fantastic in his 3 no hit innings, walking 2 and striking out 2.

The Braves were able to snag 3 runs in the bottom of the 4th after a 2 run double from the one and only Chipper Jones.

Unfortunately, those 3 runs would be given right back by Takashi Saito in the top of the 5th. 3 hits and a walk for Saito in one inning…ugh. He’s looking really off thusfar this spring. The scoring would cease for awhile, so lets take a look at some of the scoreless frames thrown by the Braves. Mariano Gomez escaped the 6th unscathed despite allowing a pair of hits.

Then it was Kyle Cofield’s turn, who walked a man, but didn’t allow him to score.

The Braves only had 9 hits on the day. 2 of them were by Martin Prado, who also walked and scored a pair of runs.

Johnny Venters had a troublesome 8th, allowing 2 hits, but got out of the jam nicely. Then it was time for BACK TO BACK FUTURE CLOSER ACTION. Cory Gearrin pitched the 9th and looked fantastic.

Gearrin’s inning was exciting, allowing 2 men to reach via a hit and an error on Brooks Conrad, but he managed to escape the inning. The Braves offense predictably did nothing in the bottom of the 9th, and Craig Kimbrel pitched the 10th, much to my excitement. Kimbrel was pretty awesome, walking Ike Davis on a borderline call that the umpire admitted he missed the strike three on, and he also struck out 2 Mets. And oh yeah, this happened twice.

Yeah, he hit 98. Then came the bottom of the 10th, last chance for the Braves to get a win, otherwise the team would have to settle for an ugly tie against the Mets of all teams. Brandon Hicks walked, and was moved to second on a bunt by Clint Sammons, and to third on a groundout by Gregor Blanco. That set the stage for Freddie Freeman…

…who is plunked. Alright, so men on the corners for Jesus Sucre, who lines the second pitch over the left field wall for a walk off win for the Braves! Alas, Sucre stopped running after hitting first base, so its not technically a walk off homer. But dammit, its going down that way in my book.

Solid win for the Braves yesterday. And what did we learn?

-Derek Lowe needs to never not tape that blister again. Like, ever.

-Takashi Saito is still getting into game shape. Lets not panic before we start calling him a horrible free agent signing. I know I’ll take a step back from the ledge once he puts together a scoreless inning.

-Martin Prado is coming along very well in his role as OFFICIAL BRAVES SECOND BASEMAN. Reached base 3 times today, and is looking good in most aspects of the game.

-Chipper still has some pop in his bat, as his big double in the 4th can vouch for. He’s a key player on the team this year, and needs to improve on his performance from last year. Thankfully, luck played a big role in that effort last year, and his stats should improve as his luck normalizes.

-The minor league bullpen of doom looked fantastic. Lowe & Saito are combining to make what, 18 million this season, and allowed 6 runs. The rest of the Braves pitches consist of one major leaguer and the rest are minor leaguers, and they allowed none.

One final note, I will NOT be attending the game in Tampa this evening, not only because Tampa is an hour away from where I am now, but because its a night game, tickets in Tampa are ridiculously expensive, and the weather here in Florida right now is terrible. Assuming the weather holds up, I will be attending the Friday game against the Pirates, and the Saturday game against the Blue Jays before heading back home to frigid and boring Harrisburg, PA. Sigh.

I’ve got over 200 pictures from the spring up on my Facebook page, so check that out too if you want to look at even more pics of exciting Braves action!

We got to the park pretty early hoping to see some Braves BP…unfortunately, we only caught the Phillies. Yawn. For those wondering, here’s where Jason Heyward’s legend began…

The Heyward nets have not been put up, as you can see. Kenshin Kawakami was on the hill for the Braves, and nearly the entire batch of regulars was starting.

So yeah, it was gonna be a big night for the Braves. Kawakami sets the Phillies down 1-2-3 in the first, and in the bottom of the inning, Roy Halladay runs into a little trouble, as Chipper and Glaus both reach base. He got out of the jam, however. That led to the second inning. After a single from Ryan Howard, Kawakami hung one and Jayson Werth hit it over the right center field wall. Not a good time. After an uneventful couple of innings highlighted by yet another Jason Heyward hit and Billy Wagner looking straight up FILTHY in the top of the 4th, we made our way to the bottom of the 4th. The Braves managed to plate 4 runs this inning, highlighted by a 2 run Eric Hinske double and – you guessed it – a Jason Heyward walk, and YET ANOTHER hit by Troy Glaus. Dude is on fire. Eric O’Flahery threw a scoreless fifth despite allowing 2 hits, and then the wheels came off as Jose Ortegano came in and allowed 5 runs, looking pretty bad the entire process.

That was pretty much endgame for the Braves, as the Phillies pitching shut down the potent Braves offense for the rest of the game. The Braves pitching did the same thing for the final 3 innings, with perfect innings thrown by Manny Acosta and Mike Minor, while Jesse Chavez allowed a hit in his scoreless frame. The final was 7-4 Philly, and the Braves lose their first game of the year at Champion Stadium.

What did we learn from yesterday’s game?

-Troy Glaus is playing like a man possessed. He’s now 9 for 12 this spring. Thing is, all he’s hitting are singles….only one double, and the rest are singles! The power needs to come along, but I’m very pleased with the way he’s getting contact on the ball and putting it where they ain’t.

-Kenshin Kawakami’s head needs to get tightened up a little bit. Once things started going rough in the second, he seemed lost on the mound.

-Like Glaus, Brian McCann is also raking. He’s getting some power in the mix, though.

-Jason Heyward is a freak of nature. He walked yet again tonight. He’s got as many walks as hits, and has struck out ONCE.

-Manny Acosta is pitching great, and trying to win that bullpen spot. I’m all for it…if he can keep this up, that is.

I’ll be back tonight with another spring recap, and a player preview as well. Next up is Kyle Cofield, and I’m sure you’re all eager to read that one /sarcasm

Jesse Chavez is the dude the Braves got from the Rays in exchange for Rafael Soriano this offseason. I have lambasted the hell out of this move, but its time to take a deeper look at our return for the former closer. Chavez spent the past 4 seasons as a Pirate, spending time in AAA and the majors. His ERAs with the Pirates organization look ugly: 4.24, 3.92, 3.80, 6.60 and 4.01. However, he hasn’t been that bad…Chavez’s FIPs over those same stops have been 3.02, 2.90, 3.64 at AAA, and then a more unsightly 4.53 and 4.85 in the majors. So at first glance of the stats, he appears to be a quintessential 4A pitcher. But is he?

In 2007 and 2008 at AAA for the Pirates, Chavez showed excellent control, posting walk rates of just 1.90 and 2.88 to go with strikeout rates of 7.28 and 9.17. His time in the majors hasn’t been that much of a easy going ride for him, as those rates have gone to 9.60, 5.40 in 2008 (in a small sample size) and 6.28, 2.94 in 2009. The drop in strikeouts in 2009 is worrisome, but the walk rate is solid enough. Chavez has also been plagued by home runs during his time as a major league player: 1.20 in 2008, and 1.47 in 2009. That 2009 number is downright terrifying, but could be attributed to a spike in his flyball rate up to 40.7% (up from 34.8% in 2008).

Chavez also shows good life in his fastball, with an average velocity around 94 miles per hour. Someone who throws hard like that could be an asset to the team. But are the drastic splits between his major and minor league numbers really worth taking a chance on? The deciding factor for me will be his performance during the spring, and as of right now, its not looking too good (2 2/3 IP, 6 hits, 6 ER, 4 BB, ZERO STRIKEOUTS). I’d only give Chavez a spot on the final roster if he’s able to turn on the jets and really throw down an impressive performance over the rest of the spring. Otherwise, give him a ticket to Gwinnett.

Final projection: fodder for Gwinnett if his spring keeps going terribly, possible spot on the major league roster if he’s able to turn things around.

Let me explain. Normally when I go to a spring training game, I buy a GA or lawn seat, and just walk around the park, standing along the wall in the lower concourses to take pics and watch the game. Normally this isn’t an issue. Lakeland? Oh yeah…its a huge issue. One guy took one step onto the concourse and stood for maybe 5 seconds before a goon came over and told him to step back. Oh my god, this is Yankee Stadium level nonsense. So we spent the game chilling in the lawn area in left field. Thusly, most of my pics sucked. Sorry. Now anyway, onto the recap…

This game was all about offense for the Braves. The team cranked out 12 runs and no less than 5 starters were on the bench (the only regulars who played were Troy Glaus, Jason Heyward, and Matt Diaz). After a Melky Cabrera walk in the first inning, Jason Heyward stepped up, and did something on an 0-2 count that the entire baseball world is talking about…

He hit the ball an estimated 450 feet over a light tower onto a shed in right field. To say it was a bomb is a massive understatement. It was…I can’t even describe it. Insanity. The Braves went on to plate 3 more in the inning, after Troy Glaus, Eric Hinske, Matt Diaz, and David Ross all reached base. Not a very good game for Max Scherzer of Detroit at all. Bottom of the inning led to Tim Hudson taking the hill for the Braves, and he was…iffy in his first inning, allowing a couple hits and hitting a batter, leading to a run scored.

In the second inning, the Braves offense once again took charge, scoring 3 runs off a David Ross double. By the way, Glaus, Hinske and Diaz all reached base again. Troy Glaus is playing like a man possessed this spring…hopefully thats able to carry over into the regular season. Hudson settled down in the second inning and left the game pitching 3 innings, allowing 1 run, and striking out 3. Perfectly doable. In a relatively uneventful 3rd inning, Heyward would walk, ending his day.

In the 3rd and 4th innings, we had our first big surprise of the day, as Jojo Reyes pitched 2 scoreless innings, allowing only 1 hit and striking out 3. An appearance like this is a sign of something that makes me very hopeful for Jojo’s future.

The rest of the game was relatively uneventful. Lee Hyde came in for the 5th inning, and looked absolutely lost on the mound, allowing 2 runs on 1 hit, 2 walks, and THREE wild pitches. Three! It was a little disheartening to see. Stephen Marek and Erik Cordier sandwiched scoreless innings around a rough outing by Mike Dunn, who allowed a run and 3 baserunners in an inning, while thankfully striking out 2. The Braves bench did some damage on offense…Eric Hinske finished with a 3 for 4 day with a couple of runs scored, and Mitch Jones hit a solo homer in the 8th. Brooks Conrad would also snag a couple RBI in his bid to win the final spot on the Braves bench.

All in all, it was a solid victory for the Braves. The key performers on the team all did very well, and the only guys who really struggled were those who aren’t expected to compete for a roster spot this season. The Braves return to action this evening against the Phillies in Orlando. Roy Halladay takes the mound for Philly, while the Braves send Derek Lowe forward. Should be one hell of a game! Hopefully, the rain doesn’t come.

The mere mention of the name “Manny Acosta” makes many Braves fans wince. In his Braves major league debut in 2007, he was actually pretty good, striking out nearly a batter an inning. Unfortunately, in those 23  2/3 innings, he allowed 2 homers and walked 15 guys. His FIP was a full 2 runs higher than his ERA, which should have thrown red flags all over the place, and set all sorts of sirens off. Unfortunately, nothing happened and Acosta was given a spot in the Braves bullpen in 2008.

In 2008, Acosta’s strikeout rate dropped all the way down to 5.26 per 9, while his walk rate thankfully decreased to 4.42 per 9. Unfortunately, his homers spiked all the way up to 1.19, or 7 homers in 53 innings. But yet again, Acosta defied the odds and posted an ERA 2 runs lower than his FIP. To that I say…ZUH?!? Despite a WHIP of 1.40, Acosta managed to keep his ERA that low thanks to a BABIP of .257, which is very low and unsustainable.

2009 came along, and Acosta’s luck finally caught up with him, as he posted an ERA of 4.34, right around his FIP. He upped his strikeout rate by 2 per 9, while keeping his walk rate constant. He also slightly lowered his homer rate, while his BABIP spiked the other direction, increasing by an insane 100 points. A 100 point BABIP increase is something you very rarely see…ironically, this happened to 2 Braves in 2009 (the other being on the offensive side with Chipper Jones).

Acosta is not a guy you should look to for a solid bullpen arm. He’s a sub league average reliever, and should be the last or second to last man to make the roster if he even does. Since 2006, he’s pitched from AA to the majors, and while pitching in at least 15 innings at a level, has posted a FIP under 4.00 just once. The Braves used him well in 2009, putting him in low leverage situations. However, Acosta still wasn’t able to be a lights out reliever. At this point in his career, he’s really just a warm body.

Final projection: last man in the bullpen, or waiting for an injury at AAA

To start off first, on a sad note…Disney apparently converted the Braves pro shop outside of the stadium into a full blown ESPN store with 4 Braves t-shirts and no jerseys. Always a good time, because god knows, if I’m going to an Atlanta Braves spring training game, I want an ESPN mug! There is a store inside the park that I didn’t get a chance to look in today, but I’ll check it out on Wednesday. Horribly long line at the ticket window since nobody ever buys tickets ahead of time at Disney…but hell, we did for the rest of the week after the game, so that takes care of that nonsense.

Tommy Hanson started for the Braves, and allows a double to Lance Berkman with no other damage. However, everything Houston hit was pretty hard. The Braves offense starts strong with 3 hits, capped by an RBI single for Brian McCann.

Second inning, Tommy allows more hard hit balls and a run comes across on a sac fly, but he evens things out with a couple of strikeouts. More issues for Tommy in the bottom half of the inning, as with Matt Diaz on third after a double and a Brooks Conrad ground out, he botches a suicide squeezes and Diaz is dead to rights at the plate. Hanson did manage to work a walk, but his time on the basepaths may have taken a toll…

Top 3 was a sloppy, disgusting mess. Hitter reaches on an error, moves to second on a passed ball, and hops over to third on a error by Hanson throwing it into center field. He scores on a hit, and Tommy is pulled. Mariano Gomez comes in and allows 3 hard hit balls and another run scores before the inning ends. Not inspiring much there, Mariano.

Braves get 3 in the bottom of the inning highlighted by back to back doubles by Troy Glaus and Brian McCann (and dear god does that look good in writing).

Peter Moylan comes in and sets Houston down 1-2-3, looks great in the process. Braves offense goes totally off the chain in the bottom of the 4th for 3 more, and James Parr comes in for 2 innings and allows a run while not looking too great. Bottom 5, a couple more for the Braves on a Matt Young single. No scoring the rest of the game, but Cory Gearrin threw a perfect 8th with a strikeout. Johnny Venters sets the Astros down in order in the 9th, and its ALLLLLL OVER!

Impressions from the game today…

-Troy Glaus & Brian McCann are already in midseason form, and they could be a destructive 4-5 in the lineup assuming neither gets hurt. Both are absolutely on fire!

-Brooks Conrad is the clubhouse leader in the race for the final spot on the Braves bench. He’s killing the ball, and had some good defensive plays today as well, including a great barehand on one of those dribblers down the line.

-Nate McLouth is struggling thusfar. I don’t think the new contacts are really helping that much, but we need to give him a little more time to get acclimated to things.

-Tommy Hanson looked OK. 3 strikeouts and 3 hits in 2 1/3, but only one of those runs was earned. He was getting hit pretty hard all day…just a bad day for Tommy.

That takes care of today, I’ll be back tomorrow with a report from the afternoon game in Lakeland against the Tigers. Depending what time I wake up, I may be able to get a player preview done as well. And probably one at night too. Yes, content!

The former Royal, Abreu makes his debut for the Braves organization in 2010. After missing all of 2007, he burst back onto the scene in 2008 for Class A Burlington, striking out 12.26 batters per 9 with a…icky walk rate of 4.95. Abreu was equally effective against righties and lefties, and his FIP was a solid 3.30. This earned him promotions to both Advanced A Wilmington and later, to AA Arkansas in 2009. 2009 was another story for Abreu. He kept the strikeout rate very high at a total of 11.45 per 9 between the 2 levels. However, his walk rate was even worse in 2009, clocking in at 7.76 per 9. Thats worse than Craig Kimbrel, folks.

Obviously, looking at Abreu, the first thing that jumps out at you is the very high strikeout rate. But that walk rate…man, is it ever unsightly. Due to a low homer rate of 0.42 per 9 at A+, Abreu survived with a 3.15 FIP. Then the wheels fell off at AA, as that homer rate spiked at 1.33 per 9, leading to a horrid FIP of 6.05. However, there are caveats for both FIPs I just mentioned. Abreu’s BABIP at A+ was an unheard of .179, while at AA, it was a more reasonable, but still high, .331. Also, Abreu’s strand rate at A+ was 82.5%, while at AA it was 71.4%.

Who is the real Juan Abreu? I don’t think either version we saw in 2009 is the real player. His A+ numbers were horribly skewed low, while his AA numbers were skewed high. I expect him to be somewhere in the middle…maybe a guy with a FIP in the range of 4.00 with a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. If Abreu can get the walks under control, he could conceivably be a great shutdown reliever. But until then, its anybody’s guess.

Final projection: probably starting in Gwinnett, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in Mississippi at all in 2010.

This is Osceola County Stadium, home of the Houston Astros. As you can tell, there was a hell of walk up for yesterday’s game. We got free Astros hats…lovely.

Kris Medlen on the hill for the Braves. I didn’t see his first inning of work, but Meds got into a jam in the second, and got out of it with some fine defense.

The savior Jason Heyward at the dish. He had a double that was mostly due in part to some sloppy fielding by the Astros…the ball didn’t leave the ground!

Cody Johnson played left field for the back end of the game. Unfortunately, he didn’t hit one 500 feet, but did strike out to end the game. I chuckled a little bit.

Craig Kimbrel getting loose in the Braves pen. Kimbrel can really gun it…dude was absolutely blazing his fastballs into poor Braeden Schlehuber’s glove. His outing was justified as a success yesterday.

Cory Gearrin and Jose Ortegano getting loose. Neither got into the game. I wasn’t really focused on Ortegano, more Gearrin…dear god, he was whizzing fastballs maybe a foot or two in front of my face with that delivery. It was horrifying.

It was a little sad to see Bobby on a golf cart, but thems the breaks I guess. To his credit, he did wave at the fans on his way to the bus.

Dale Murphy was in the house, imparting his wisdom onto some of the guys. I was a little surprised to see him in full uniform, but hey, I’m not going to question anything Dale Murphy does. HE’S DALE FREAKING MURPHY.

Those are the more interesting shots from yesterday. I’ll be at the game against the Astros today, and hopefully Facebook will cooperate with me and allow me to get those pictures uploaded this evening so I can integrate them into the game recap. Until then…

Why is this late? Because Facebook is being stupid letting me upload my pics, and I wanted to include them on this post. GAY. I didn’t get to the park until the bottom of the second inning due to…a variety of reasons. But regardless, I missed both of Oswalt’s innings and Medlen’s first, as well as HEYWARD~!’s first at bat. I walked into Medlen in a jam, but he got out of the inning due to some good defense from Martin Prado and Omar Infante. 3rd inning, nothing happens…Heyward gets caught looking on an iffy third strike, and Acosta sets the Astros down with ease. Braves mount a threat in the top of the 4th and nothing happens. Bottom 4…yeah, Manny Acosta happens. Lance Berkman works him to a vicious at bat ending with a strikeout…I’m talking probably 15 pitches, and the crowd went absolutely bonkers when Acosta struck him out to end the AB. After a double by Carlos Lee, a grounder goes under Brandon Hicks’s glove to allow Lee to score and give Houston a 1-0 lead. Look at that, an error by Brandon Hicks…

Heyward doubles in the 5th, and is stranded there by Eric Hinske who strikes out and looks horrible in the process. Eric O’Flaherty pitches the bottom of the 5th and looks absolutely fantastic in the process…dribbler, ground out, strike out. Boom boom pow. In the sixth, Brandon Hicks reaches base, and Infante immediately erases him with a DP. Awesome job guys.  Chris Resop comes in for the bottom of the sixth, and does what Chris Resop does…pitch horribly. The game is pretty much over after he allows 2 runs.

Craig Kimbrel pitches the 7th and looks fantastic…no walks! He was warming up in front of me in the pen ahead of time, and was really blazing them in there. Kyle Cofield pitches an effective 8th for the Braves. Cory Gearrin was warming up in front of me to pitch the 9th if the Braves managed to rally (which they did not), and was looking pretty sick. So what did I take away from today’s game?

-Chris Resop is terrible. He should have stayed in Japan

-Manny Acosta is pretty bad, but he got stretched pretty thin today. I’ll withhold judgment

-The young closer candidates, Kimbrel and Gearrin, are totally awesome. I hope to see more of them

-Jason Heyward is a huge, huge man

Tomorrow, I’ll be in Orlando as the Braves once again play the Astros. For immediate thoughts, check me out on Twitter @BravesHeart

-Jason Heyward will be starting in April. 2 for 3 with 3 walks and a stolen base. Man, a right fielder who knows how to walk…what the hell is going on here?

-Tommy Hanson is going to break out bigtime this year. 3 strikeouts in 2 innings on quasi opening day, and it didn’t look like he even broke a sweat. I took him ahead of Josh Johnson in a fantasy draft I had on Monday…and I don’t think I’m going to regret it. Hanson is the real deal, and will wreak havoc on the NL this season.

-Tim Hudson is back. 2 innings, 15 pitches yesterday. He didn’t strike anyone out, but he absolutely cruised through the Mets like it wasn’t anything. As I said on the Fantasy Buffet on Tuesday, Hudson is one of the major keys for the Braves season, and he’s gotta be able to pitch effectively for the team.

-Stephen Marek will never pitch in the majors. He got absolutely hammered yesterday, and showed he had no idea what he was doing. In 2/3 of an inning, he allowed 4 hits, walked 2, and 3 runs came across. He didn’t strike a batter out. As the last remaining piece of the FIVE FOR TWO deal back in 2007 (not accounting for Brett DeVall, who we got as the sandwich pick received for Mahay), Braves fans are desperately clinging to hoping that he’s going to amount to something, myself included. Its not going to happen.

-Jesse Chavez got off to a bad start. 3 hits, a walk, and 2 earned in an inning. Yikes. Not a good first impression you want to make on a squad you’re looking to win a spot in the bullpen for.

-Mike Minor is going to fly through the system. A perfect inning yesterday with a strikeout. He’ll probably start in Myrtle Beach with a rocket strapped to his ass. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the majors in 2011.

-Jeff Lyman could be a factor. I mentioned him when I did my prospect writeup a couple months ago as an X-factor for the Braves this year. 2 strikeouts in a perfect inning and a whole lot of gas coming out of his arm can really help matters. Watch out world…

The Braves play the Pirates at 1:05 today at Champion Stadium. No TV as usual, but if you have MLB At Bat 2010 or MLB.TV, you can get the audio. I know I’ll be listening before my exam today, and after I get out of class.