British Horseracing Authority Handicappers Blog

7th February 2012 - FEELING THE CHILL

Wed, 8 Feb 2012 09:17:15 GMT

There hasn�t been an awful lot of racing in the last seven days, with the loss of the big weekend NH cards proving a real disappointment, but whilst we�re a bit light on flagship horses in this week�s blog our team have picked out several noteworthy performances that might have escaped the attentions of many. Read on�

ON THE UP

Despite the limited racing programme last week a couple of middle distance novice hurdlers created enough of an impression to suggest that they could progress on to better things as the season continues, writes Chris Nash.

At Ffos Las on Sunday Benheir sluiced up on his hurdles debut. He had won the last of his three bumper runs back in November and had subsequently changed hands. Although the opposition here was limited he created a good impression on his debut for Rebecca Curtis when coasting home by twenty-two lengths. He doesn�t qualify for an official rating just yet but the runner-up, King�s Sunset, does and he will enter the handicap ranks with a rating of 105. This would suggest that Benheir turned in a performance worthy of a rating of at least 127 and by any reckoning that represents a decent debut. It will be interesting to see if this initial promise is confirmed next time out.

The second horse worth a mention is Tap Night who won a 2m4f novice hurdle at Newcastle on Wednesday by an easy twelve length. He had previously won a novice handicap race from a mark of 110 and lined up here with an official rating of 125. His stiffest competition looked likely to come from An Capall Mor (pre-race 115), to whom Tap Night had to concede 7lb, but he ran a poor race in the testing conditions. Although this casts a bit of a shadow over the form the eventual runner-up, Falcun, arrived with some consistent form and a pre-race rating of 110. In giving him 7lb and a twelve-length beating it is reasonable to assume that Tap Night ran to a figure of 129+, and factoring in the ease of the victory his revised rating will be 132. This was only his fifth hurdles run and his form has a progressive look to it which, in conjunction with a rating of 132, suggests that he could more than hold his own upped in class.

STORM FORCE

The most progressive horse I dealt with in a curtailed week was undoubtedly the Jonjo O�Neill-trained Storm Survivor, writes Graeme Smith. The six-year-old son of Milan has proved a revelation since switched to handicaps and raised in trip, and despite being turned over at odds on at Fakenham earlier in January he regained winning ways in decisive fashion in a conditional jockeys� event at Plumpton.

Again partnered by Maurice Linehan, Storm Survivor relished the combination of a further step up to 3m1f and the application of a visor, going much further on the bridle than any of his rivals and, after taking a while to get going once shaken up at the second last, powering away from the final flight to account for The Red Laird by an ever-increasing seven lengths.

The runner-up had been off the track since February last year but his profile is generally progressive and I raised his mark 4lb to 105 following this defeat of several others with recent handicap form to their names. The knock-on from that was a 14lb rise for Storm Survivor to 124, having decided he was value for an extra five lengths over the bare winning margin.

SPEED DEMONS

Even though the English cricket team aren�t enjoying much success in the Middle East at present, to say the least, the same can�t be said of the British raiders at Meydan this winter, with both sprints last Friday being won by horses trained from these shores, writes Stewart Copeland.

The Group 3 6f Al Shindagha Sprint run on the Tapeta surface was won by the admirable Hitchens, putting up his best performance since an excellent third to Dream Ahead in last summer�s Group 1 Darley July Cup at Newmarket.

Always well positioned just behind the pace, he hit the front inside the last and dug deep to hold off the rallying Krypton Factor, narrowly prevailing by a short-head.

Rated 113 in the World Rankings at the end of 2011, Hitchens showed himself here to be as good as ever and remains on that mark. His next port of call looks likely to be the Group 3 6f Mahab Al Shimaal, run on March 10th, part of Super Saturday at this year�s festival.

The preceding turf sprint handicap over five furlongs produced an exciting finish, the first four home all trained in Britain, with Monsieur Joe prevailing by a neck from Inxile, with Bohemian Melody and Iver Bridge Lad filling the frame behind them.

Formerly trained by Walter Swinburn, the five-year-old gelding Monsieur Joe was having only his second start for Robert Cowell, and recorded his best performance since some excellent efforts at Meydan last winter.

He landed this handicap off a mark of 100, and probably ran to a rating of 103, though a case could be made for it to be slightly higher.

His stable companion Prohibit won a similar contest at Meydan this time last year, en route to being successful in last year�s Group 1 King�s Stand at Royal Ascot, and no doubt connections will be hoping there�s better to come from Monsieur Joe as well.

31st January 2012 - DRESS REHEARSAL

Tue, 31 Jan 2012 15:41:21 GMT

Last weekend saw the last of Cheltenham�s pre-Festival fixtures in the shape of �Trials Day�. It was chiefly Midnight Chase and Big Buck�s who hogged the majority of the limelight but there�s weren�t the only noteworthy performances so far as the Festival goes and our NH team do their best to cover all angles. Furthermore, there was big-race action at Doncaster too, and we could be hearing more of the first two from the Sky Bet Chase in the run up to the Grand National.

MIDNIGHT HOUR

Some incredibly competitive and interesting chases fell under my workload on Saturday, with no fewer than three of them taking place at Cheltenham, writes Stephen Hindle.

The best performance, though not by as much as you may think, came courtesy of Midnight Chase, who continued his love affair with the course by taking the Grade 2 Argento Chase, gamely holding off Tidal Bay by two and three-quarter lengths.

It was Midnight Chase�s fifth win at the track from just eight starts, and the only time he�s finished out of the first three there was when a creditable fifth in last year�s Gold Cup.

He came into this contest on the back of a third in the Rowland Meyrick, which has already been advertised by the follow-up success of According To Pete. That said, this effort not only represented a step up on that form, but Midnight Chase appears to have at least matched anything he�s done in the past.

He went in to the race on a mark of 158 and given he was conceding 6lb to Tidal Bay, who has shown himself capable of form in the mid-160s in the past, I could have underestimated this effort even by putting Midnight Chase back up to his best rating of 163. The reason I didn�t go higher was due to the proximity of Knockara Beau in third, who will be going up to 147 from 140. He has been slightly higher still in the past but the fact he�s been beaten twice this season off 143 tempered my view of this form slightly, whilst the race was also watered down somewhat by the absence of Grands Crus and the no show from Captain Chris, who jumped badly right and was pulled up at an early stage.

A couple of hotly-contested handicap chases preceded the Argento.

Bless The Wings was a two-and-a-half length winner of the Timeform Novices� Handicap Chase, which traditionally represents strong form. This year�s renewal saw plenty of casualties, with no fewer than six of the sixteen runners either falling or unseating. I�m of the opinion the race is still likely to prove well worth following, however, and I raised the winner, Bless The Wings, by 8lb to 138, crediting him with 3lb extra for idling.

Just over half an hour later, last year�s Timeform winner, The Giant Bolster, obliterated his rivals in the Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase, powering home by seventeen lengths from Poquelin.

Nothing other than a hefty hike could be allotted to The Giant Bolster, who I raised 15lb to 160. Poquelin also ran with plenty of credit in justifying his mark of 168, which is unchanged.

In addition to Cheltenham, another good-quality handicap chase could be found in Britain on Saturday. Doncaster hosted the Sky Bet Chase, which actually dwarfed the prize money in the similar events seen at Cheltenham, with Calgary Bay picking up the best part of �43,000 for his two-and-a-half length defeat of Shakalakaboomboom.

Calgary Bay doesn�t go to Doncaster that often but he has arguably turned in his best two performances there. His win off 142 by seven lengths in December 2009 represented a career best at the time and there is little doubting this latest success bettered anything he�s done in the past. He goes up from 151 to 159.

Shakalakaboomboom also ran really well in second and goes up 5lb to 149, which loosely fits in with the new mark of Knockara Beau, who finished second to him at Cheltenahm in December.

The next three home in the Sky Bet, namely Fruity O�Rooney, Galaxy Rock and Qianshan Leader, also ran with credit. Saddle problems were a real cause for concern for Fruity O�Rooney at the last. It slipped so far that rider Jamie Moore worked wonders to maintain the partnership to the finish having lost his irons. Galaxy Rock and Qianshan Leader didn�t jump well and I felt all three of those horses should be kept on the same mark.

JUVENILE JOUSTING

He may have lost the race in the Stewards Room but Pearl Swan has gone to the top of the juvenile ratings thus far by passing the post first in Saturday�s JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial Finesse Hurdle, writes Dave Dickinson. Ignoring the rights and wrongs of any Stewarding decision Pearl Swan and Grumeti appeared very closely matched on Saturday�s terms (Pearl Swan was giving his rival 3lb) and with Finale winner Hollow Tree appearing to run another fine race in third, he is used as the benchmark giving marks of 146 to Pearl Swan and 143 to Grumeti.

Such a race ought to make the Triumph picture much clearer but it doesn�t. This year�s juvenile form was tested in all age handicap company in Cheltenham�s closer on Saturday. Hinterland travelled well but merely plugged on when push came to shove and his 141 mark remains unchanged. He remains in the Triumph picture, and it is worth remembering that Ranjaan has already run to 141, when winning an all age handicap at Taunton. So it looks a competitive race at this stage amongst the British juveniles and the form is taking some weighing up in Ireland too.

It was a tragedy when Sam Bass was lost over Christmas but Ut de Sivola looked the part, particularly when Burrenbridge Lodge and One Cool Shabra (third and fourth to him at Punchestown) defied the odds to fight out another controversial finish at Gowran in the week, beating three better backed and less exposed rivals. However, that form took a knock later in the week when Punchestown second Hisaabaat failed to cope with Darroun, who along with his debut conqueror Shadow Catcher, must also be in the mix.

I currently have no less than fifteen juveniles rated between 138 and the top of 146. Add to this the fact that the last five Triumph winners ran to marks between 148 and 159 in victory, and that the latest two were not seen on these shores before the February of their winning year, and the race looks even more of a minefield than usual.

BUCK�S PARTY

Although most people know me as the Handicapper for the 2yos, I have a fairly secret past, writes Matthew Tester. For six or seven years I used to help out the jumping team in the winter.

Perhaps my most versatile moment came some years ago. I had to come up with the ratings for a two-year-old seller at Wolverhampton on the same day that I was finalising the weights for the Scottish Grand National. Thanks entirely to the ratings I had inherited from Phil Smith, the race finished in a three way photo. Phil rang me on the way home to tell me to retire from handicapping chasers because I was never going to top that.

But I was back in the fray for a weekend to fill the gap between one of the jumping team going on holiday and another one returning. So this weekend I had to do a 6f seller from Lingfield and the Cheltenham win of Big Buck�s. He certainly is the only 174-rated horse that I will deal with this year! It was a fascinating challenge looking after the staying hurdlers and I had Big Buck�s running to 171 in beating Dynaste by seven lengths conceding 4lb, with the latter raised 2lb to 160.

My wife Amelia, a member at Cheltenham since she was in her pram, thinks that Flat racing is what you do whilst you are waiting to go hurdling. She would love me to do jumpers and it was a great honour. But it was so nerve-wracking that I am delighted to be able to pass them back to the specialists. Bring on the Brocklesby.

24th January 2012 - SHINING KNIGHT

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 10:05:15 GMT

The emphasis returns to Jumping in this week�s blog and it was good quality racing at that. Somersby finally enjoyed his day in the sun at Ascot on Saturday and John de Moraville gives his thoughts on what Henrietta Knight�s stable star actually proved in doing so. Other valuable contests are also covered, namely the mares� Grade 2 at the Berkshire venue and Haydock�s Peter Marsh Chase.

SOMERSBY SHINES
With no Master Minded to spoil the party, Somersby gained the Grade 1 triumph he so richly deserved in Saturday�s Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot, writes John de Moraville.

Foiled, heart-breakingly, by a whisker by the sidelined ex-champion in the same race a year ago, Somersby, top-rated on official figures this time, ran to his mark of 166 to propel trainer Henrietta Knight back into the big-time.

Finian�s Rainbow, whose only previous chase defeat came in last season�s Arkle, was an honourable second, posting a career-best 164, while third-placed Al Ferof (160) advertised his claims to this year�s 2m novices title.

Somersby�s Cheltenham target is expected to be the Ryanair Chase, which looks the right call as the extra trip will suit and he was found wanting in the Queen Mother Champion last spring when fifth behind Sizing Europe (177), favourite to complete a famous double in March.

Saturday�s defeat leaves Finian�s Rainbow, who looked sure to win jumping the second-last, with a bit to find in the Champion Chase but the experience gained by the novice Al Ferof should be a significant asset against the likes of Sprinter Sacre (161) and Peddlers Cross (also 160) in what promises to be a vintage Arkle.

Cheltenham�s uphill finish will help him as well, as was the case when stamina won him the day in last year�s Supreme Novices� Hurdle.

ACCORDING TO STEPHEN
It�s a while since I had to do any NH handicapping, writes Stephen Hindle, but I�ve been drafted in as Phil Smith has swanned off on holiday!

One good thing about that happening at this time of year is the chance to assess some better races, and Saturday was no exception with the latest renewal of the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock.

It looked competitive beforehand, with four last-time-out winners in the line-up and most of the rest of the eleven-strong field could also have been said to be in form going in.

In the end the race boiled down to three, namely recent winners According To Pete and Consigliere, and last-time-out faller Pearlysteps. According To Pete was 8lb out of the handicap when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby over Christmas and he proved that was no fluke in fine style here, looking value for slightly more than the three and a half lengths he eventually prevailed by from Pearlysteps.

Considering the first three here were twenty-three lengths clear of the fourth in a competitive-looking race I felt they all deserved a rise.

Consigliere has been as high as 148 in the past, a mark he achieved when finishing third in the 2010 Grand Annual, but the winner of that race, Pigeon Island, failed to progress and I felt more comfortable putting Consigliere up by 2lb to 147.

That meant a 3lb rise for Pearlysteps, who was three-quarters of a length in front of Consigliere, to 143. According To Pete, who clearly relishes testing ground, is now up to a career-high mark of 149 (raised 7lb).

None of the others ran to form, though Mon Mome can be forgiven a seemingly well below par effort as he wasn�t that far behind when his rider called it a day. The 2009 Grand National winner presumably has that event on his agenda again this year.

DAVIS CUP
There was very little to choose between the majority of the runners in the Warfield Mares� Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday, and, partly due to the steady pace, there was little to choose between them at the finish either, writes Martin Greenwood.

On my adjusted ratings, there was only a couple of pounds separating Irish challenger Our Girl Salley (who gave 5lb to the rest of the field), and Violin Davis, Kentford Grey Lady and Cloudy Spirit, the last-named trio meeting again having all run in a Kempton Handicap the time before. On that occasion Kentford Grey Lady had run out a convincing winner receiving upwards of 10lb from the other two.

It was always going to be much harder for the grey racing off level weights at Ascot, though she was still sent off the preferred mare in the market. In the event however she couldn�t quite peg back Violin Davis, after the race turned into something of a sprint, and went down by half a length, with the slightly eased down Our Girl Salley just over two lengths back in third and the rest of the field not much further behind.

There was little shuffling of the ratings needed afterwards - the winner is now 135 (matching the four year standards for the contest) from 133, the second 134 from 133 and Our Girl Salley remaining on 139 for now. Incidentally, Love of Tara, who finished last, appeared to run 4lb above her pre-race rating of 122, but I have ignored the run and assumed she was flattered, a decision that helps prove the BHA Handicappers don�t always follow the robotic stance we are often accused of!

17th January 2012 - LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

Tue, 17 Jan 2012 13:16:27 GMT

This week�s blog chiefly pays homage to the year of Frankel in the wake of the recent publication of the World Thoroughbred Rankings, and Dominic Gardiner-Hill not only explains the reasoning behind his rating but also looks forward to 2012 and assesses his prospects for improving on that level. There were also a couple of potentially significant performances in the novice hurdle ranks in the last seven days, and our NH handicappers run the rule over what impact those up-and-comers could have in some of the big races still to come.

FRANKEL�S SEASON

Having spent the last three months of the 2011 season playing the �party pooper� and telling the world and his wife that Frankel could not be raised from his post Sussex Stakes mark of 135, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, the publication of the 2011 World Thoroughbred Rankings saw him predictably confirmed as the world�s best racehorse but with a mark of�..136!

One of the advantages of having a month between the end of the season and the start of the Rankings conference in Hong Kong is that it gives the handicappers a chance to review the season as a whole, pull a few things apart and put them back together again. Having reviewed Frankel�s season, particularly his victories in the Sussex Stakes and the QE II, and considered the treatment the Rankings Committee had given to other �superstars� such as Sea The Stars and Zenyatta, I submitted a figure of 136 for discussion and it went through unopposed. Given that both he and Sea The Stars showed very similar levels of form I felt it appropriate that he should be credited with the same mark as the Irish colt � I don�t believe there is anybody in the world that can say with any certainty which is the better of the two and if I was framing a handicap involving the pair of them I certainly would not want either one of them to be conceding weight to the other!

Having opened his season with 120-performance in defeating Excelebration (who�s only three defeats of the season came at the hands of Frankel) in the Greenham at Newbury, Henry Cecil�s colt elevated himself into the �Superstar� bracket with his devastating 2000 Guineas display at Newmarket. Visually it was probably the most stunning performance I have seen but the race wasn�t easy to rate with runner-up Dubawi Gold going into it rated 101 and third-placed Native Khan going in on 111. By hook or by crook, using ten-year averages for the race I came up with figures of 130-117-116 for the first three home � figures that would stay with the second and third all year and be their final Rankings mark.

On to Royal Ascot and I suspect I wasn�t the only person who felt somewhat deflated after the St James�s Palace � yes he won the race but those that had come to witness another demolition job were left disappointed. Plenty of column inches were taken up on the ride he received that day and I don�t intend on adding to them here but suffice to say Frankel was way off his best in taking the race with a performance of 120 � with neither runner-up Zoffany (118) or fourth placed Neebras (115) doing anything to advertise the form subsequently.

It is an interesting aside that Frankel�s Guineas performance was the best since Zafonic in 1993 and he went on to put up the best ever performances seen in both the Sussex and the QE II, but his St James�s Palace effort was the second lowest winning performance in the race in the last ten years with only Azamour�s 118 in 2004 being rated lower.

The clash that everybody wanted to see � Frankel V Canford Cliffs � materialised in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and Frankel stamped himself the best horse on the planet with a stunning five lengths success. Using third placed Rio de la Plata as a guide to the level of the race my figures were 136-123-118-113, suggesting that the hanging Canford Cliffs had not performed to his best of 127 in chasing home his younger rival. Subsequent news that he had been retired due to injury helped explain the performance although nobody can doubt that the best horse prevailed.

There is always a worry when giving horses stellar marks that if they fail to reproduce them people will start questioning their previous form � there was no such need to worry with Frankel. Another barnstorming display in the QE II where he once again beat old rival Excelebration by four lengths and increased his superiority over 2000 Guineas runner-up Dubawi Gold from six length to seven and three quarter lengths confirmed his standing at the top of the pile, my figures for the race being 136-125-115-117.

So what does 2012 hold for Frankel and how high can he go? It would appear that a seasonal debut in the Lockinge at Newbury is on the cards followed by a probable step up to 1m2f. As far as his rating is concerned, a lot of it will depend on the quality of opposition around and how far he can beat them � remember at 136 he is already entitled to beat the world�s top 1m2f performer Cirrus Des Aigles (128) by five lengths and So You Think (126) by six lengths so he will have to put up a mighty performance to increase his mark further � that is some thought to keep us warm during the winter months!

COTTON PICKING

Warwick�s Grade 2 2m5f Leamington Novices� Hurdle (sponsored by Neptune Investments), while usually lacking strength in depth, always has a couple of exciting prospects and the latest edition was no exception, writes Martin Greenwood.

Prior to the race our ratings suggested it was a straight fight between Cotton Mill (rated 139) and Highland Lodge (rated 140), both of whom were two wins from two. With Highland Lodge going off at a shade of odds on, it was perhaps surprising that Cotton Mill was as long as 11/2, with another unexposed sort Ambion Wood (rated 129 going in) the second favourite. In the event all three of the aforementioned had pulled clear with Same Difference leaving the back straight, but Highland Lodge was the first beaten and dropped out tamely from the second last leaving the impression that something wasn�t quite right. Cotton Mill and Ambion Wood fought out a good finish thereafter and only half a length separated the pair at the line, with Cotton Mill holding on bravely.

These races are never easy to be sure about, with so many unexposed sorts in the field, and for the minute I have rated the race around the standards that cover the contest in the last five years. I have Cotton Mill slightly below his pre-race figure but he will remain on 139. Ambion Wood has been raised 6lb to 135, and Highland Lodge is now 139 the same as Cotton Mill with the hope he fulfils the promise he showed on his first two starts. Obviously only subsequent events will tell me whether I am too high or low, and I will adjust as necessary over the coming weeks.

THE PUNTERS� DARLAN?

Following the Nicky Henderson-trained Darlan�s easy fourth success from as many career starts in a novice hurdle at Taunton last week it was hardly a surprise he moved up the betting for the Supreme Novices� Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, writes Graeme Smith.

I was rather taken aback by his promotion to second favourite for the valuable Betfair Hurdle � formerly the Totesport Trophy � at Newbury next month, however, with his chance in that race dependant entirely on a handicap mark that had yet to be released.

There was a reasonably wide range of possibilities for assessing that Taunton novice � Darlan won by half a length but it�s very subjective how much extra he was value for having never left the bridle � and anyone who snapped up a price for the Newbury race was taking something of a leap of faith on how I�d view things.

As it happened, I seemingly took a higher view of the form than Darlan�s rider Barry Geraghty, who pointed out the runner-up Jump City could be disappointing and others further back needed the run. Jump City had disappointed at 2m4f on his last two starts, but his previous form around 2m has proved solid around a figure of 138 (I raised his rating 2lb back to that level) and I took the view Darlan was value for a winning margin in the region of eight lengths, raising his rating from 137 to 146. I think he could still be a contender for the Betfair Hurdle if standing up to the rough and tumble of markedly more competitive company, but surely anyone who�s already backed him would have been better off keeping their powder dry until they could make an informed decision.

10th January 2012 - THE DAY OF RECKONING

Tue, 10 Jan 2012 13:29:26 GMT

It may seem strange for a January blog to concentrate mainly on Flat racing, but this week sees the unveiling of the World Thoroughbred Rankings for the 2011 season and both Phil Smith and Matthew Tester take the opportunity to put some of the headline figures into context. Furthermore, there�s an above-average performance on the all-weather that is also discussed, along with a mini-round-up from the NH sphere.

FRANKEL MY DEAR�

The 2011 World Thoroughbred Rankings were announced this morning (Tuesday) at a press conference at BHA Head Office in London, writes Phil Smith. They showed the outstanding quality of the horses that were trained in Britain last summer.

For the first time since 1994, six of the top ten horses in the world were trained in Britain. This time it is Frankel 136, Canford Cliffs 127, Rewilding 127, Dream Ahead 126, Excelebration 126 and Nathaniel 126. Seventeen years ago it was Distant View 128, Maroof 128, Barathea 127, Erhaab 126, King�s Theatre 126 and Lochsong 126.

When the current WTR is added to its forerunner, the International Classifications which began in 1977, Frankel becomes the highest rated horse since 1997 when Peintre Celebre received 137 for his scintillating victory in that year�s Prix de l�Arc de Triomphe. He is also the second highest miler ever behind El Gran Senor (138) in 1984 and the joint eighth highest rated horse at any distance since 1977 together with Sea The Stars.

Black Caviar (132) is the highest sprinter since Dayjur received 133 in 1990 and the joint second highest filly ever together with Miesque, Pebbles and All Along, with only Three Troikas (137) higher in 1979.

Imagine a match over 7f between Black Caviar and Frankel - who would be the winner? I suspect home advantage could be crucial as in Britain the filly would receive a 3lb sex allowance whereas in Australia she would get 2kg.

HARD TO SPLIT THE JUVENILES

A year ago we had joint two-year-old champions at 126 in Frankel and Dream Ahead, writes Matthew Tester. Both of them were well above the usual level needed to be champion. And what an amazing year each of them had as three-year-olds much to our joy. The successes of Dream Ahead gave me great personal pleasure and Frankel all year was awesome in the best meaning of that word.

This time we have joint champions at 119 with Dabirsim and Camelot. This is the lowest level for champion two-year-old in the modern era - from 1985 onwards during which the composition of the Classifications committee has remained unchanged. From that year onwards the ratings have been agreed by representatives of Great Britain, Ireland, France, Italy and Germany.

Unlike a year before, there were no real standout performances by the juveniles. For much of the year I thought that Harbour Watch would be the champion. After three runs he had already reached a rating of 117 but his leg injury stopped him from turning up for the big races. Camelot made a huge impression winning the Racing Post Trophy but he beat a small field of fairly unexposed horses. Dabirsim won two Group 1s in France but was never up against an exceptional opponent.

Does this mean we are in for a dull 2012 with the three-year-olds? Not at all. The lowest previous champion in my fifteen years with the two-year-olds was Bago and he went on to win three Group 1s the next year including the Arc. Dr Devious was the lowest rated Dewhurst winner of the previous twenty years and he went on to win the Derby!

Camelot, especially, looks a wonderful prospect for 2012, and if he does not step up to the mark then we are in for an exciting time unearthing dark horses who will. Bring it on.

THE HUNDRED CLUB

Three-figure ratings have been a rarity on the all-weather sprint scene this winter, so Oasis Dancer�s success in the feature 6f handicap at Lingfield on Saturday made a pleasant change, writes Stewart Copeland.

Trained by Ralph Beckett, the five-year old gelding was made favourite on the strength of his success over the same trip in a conditions race at Wolverhampton last month, earning a rating of 98 that day. He clearly showed that revised mark was far from beyond him, running out a decisive two-length winner from Fratellino, with recent course and distance winner Capone, a narrow third.

Rated as high as 106 during the summer of 2010, his win at Lingfield represented a return to that level of form, and Oasis Dancer is well worth another chance in listed company, with the 6f listed Cleves Stakes at Lingfield in late February an obvious opportunity in that grade.

NH ROUND-UP

The best quality middle distance hurdle race of the last week was the 2m4f mares listed hurdle at Sandown on Saturday, writes Chris Nash. The race was run at an honest enough pace to believe that the form might have some substance and the finish was fought out by the two best fancied runners.

Kells Belle (pre-race rating of 125) beat Kaffie (pre-race rating of 132) by a length and three quarters and, having met here at level weights, the obvious starting point would be to rate the winner 134 meaning that the runner-up would get 2lb for a near-two-length beating should they meet in a handicap next time out. I was reluctant to do this on two counts. Firstly Kells Belle has been consistent in handicaps this season off marks in the mid-120s so it might be a bit fanciful to suddenly assume that she has improved by as much as 9lb. Secondly the runner-up was given a very positive ride and, having been sent to the front at halfway, she was still travelling better than the winner on the run to two out before being reeled in late. It is fair to assume that in winning this race Kells Belle has produced a career best so some rise is inevitable and I have decided to rate her 132 - the same as the runner-up.

A mention too for Star of Angels, who won a competitive 0-135 handicap hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday off a mark of 128. This horse had run fourth in the Coral Cup at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival but then had two years away from the track. He showed little on his return to action at Sandown last month but his effort on Saturday confirmed that much if not all of his former ability remained.

Two lightly-raced novices with solid form (both on their handicap debuts) filled third and fourth positions so this form has some substance to it. The winner will go up 8lb to a mark of 136. Given that his fourth at the Festival came from a mark of 137 then he has definite potential from his revised rating. Star of Angels is trained by David Pipe so what chance we see him at the Festival in March perhaps in the Martin Pipe Handicap hurdle over 2m4f for horses rated 0-145?

3rd January 2012 - CHALLOW VICTORY

Tue, 3 Jan 2012 16:32:02 GMT

When all the unwrapping of presents and family gatherings are done with, Christmas is a time to enjoy some top-quality jumps racing. Our crack team of National Hunt handicappers are back to give you the lowdown on some of the best action over the festive period.

Fingal Bay kept his unbeaten record intact but probably didn�t enhance his already lofty reputation when beating Ballyrock by a hard-fought length in the five-runner Bathwick Tyres Challow Novices� Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.

Going into the Grade 2 event on a figure of 149 after impressing at Chepstow, Cheltenham and Sandown, Fingal Bay looked to have a straightforward task at Newbury against four oppenents who, though all winners last time out, had been contesting bog-standard novice races.

Fingal Bay never looked likely to lose his hundred per cent record but he had to be kept up to his work all the way to the line to see off the persistent Ballyrock, though in fairness Fingal Bay was almost certainly idling in front.

Another novice who is rated in the high 140s is the Irish-trained Sea of Thunder, who was pulling away in style when falling at the last at Cheltenham�s mid-December meeting. Since then the �winner� Deireadh Re and the runner-up Rev It Up have both been successful in handicap company and I have raised the original level of form by 5 lbs, meaning that Sea of Thunder would be a minimum of 144 on the assumption he would have won by only the seven-length margin he was clear at the time, though he was still travelling strongly and a rating closer to Fingal Bay�s would seem more appropriate.

I BET YOU DIDN�T KNOW THIS�

Here are a couple of bits of trivia to start 2012, writes Dave Dickinson.

When was Celestial Halo last beaten in a handicap? The answer is at York in August of his three-year-old career prior to finishing seventh in that year�s St Leger.

Partly as a consequence of being three wins from three handicap runs over hurdles after his game success in Saturday�s Totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle at Newbury comes a second piece of trivia. What was the last horse to give Celestial Halo weight and beat him over hurdles? Well, unless you count Sentry Duty at Doncaster in February 2008, when Celestial Halo was effectively conceding 7 lbs factoring in the 10 lbs weight-for-age allowance, nothing ever has.

Twice in the frame in Champion Hurdles, Celestial Halo has often seemed below the very best at level weights, but these handicap wins off 165 in 2009 (he beat Binocular into third when runner-up in the Champion Hurdle earlier that year), and twice off 160 this season are a testament to his continuing class and enthusiasm.

I have used Ubi Ace as my benchmark for his latest victory and put Celestial Halo back up to his highest winning mark of 165, both placed horses running cracking trials for February�s Totesport Trophy. The runner-up, Torphichen, who was returning to hurdling for the first time in close to two years, is ideally suited by such testing ground. Third-home Ubi Ace really caught the eye with some immaculate hurdling and it is entirely possible that this lightly-raced hurdler would be better suited by a slightly less testing surface.

Entries for the Totesport are next week and just maybe the first three on Saturday will lock horns at the Berkshire course again.

HENDERSON CHASERS SHOWING SPRINTING SPEED!

The Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton last Tuesday was a thrilling race to watch and despite the eventful nature of the race the right horse won, writes Mark Olley.

The pace was very steady and coming to four out Oiseau de Nuit was leading, but the �big two�, Finian�s Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking, were travelling ominously well just behind. The complexion of the race changed at this point as both made serious blunders. Wishfull Thinking was the first to recover and a big jump at the last looked to have the race won for Philip Hobbs� charge, but Finian�s Rainbow, who had been given plenty of time to recover by Barry Geraghty, swept by on the outside to win a shade cosily.

The race was fairly straightforward from a handicapping point of view as the third and fourth, Oiseau de Nuit (152) and Takeroc (145), had five lengths between them and with the former conceding 2 lbs they finished exactly as the pre-race figures suggested. The steady pace and jumping errors prevented the front two from pulling as far clear from this duo as I would have expected and as a consequence I have left Finian�s Rainbow on his pre-race figure of 157.

It was lovely to see Wishfull Thinking return to form after a couple of below-par efforts this term. However, I still had him running 8 lbs below last season�s peak and have dropped him 2 lbs to a new mark of 162.

Finian�s Rainbow reportedly needed this reappearance and Captain Chris, in last season�s Arkle, is still the only horse to have finished in front of Nicky Henderson�s top-class chaser since he switched to fences. I will be amazed if we have seen the best of Finian�s Rainbow yet and I expect him to be capable of higher ratings when he tackles the best 2m chasers in stronger-run races.

Also run at Kempton last Tuesday was the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices� Chase and this was basically a match between last season�s Champion Hurdle runner-up Peddlers Cross and exciting chase recruit Sprinter Sacre. A blunder at the first from Peddlers Cross handed the early advantage to Sprinter Sacre and Donald McCain�s gelding was always on the back foot from that point. Several great leaps from Sprinter Sacre heaped on the pressure and Nicky Henderson�s gelding ran out a clear cut and hugely impressive winner.

160 is the best figure that Peddlers Cross has achieved in his three chases to date and that is his first published chase rating � 10 lbs lower than his current hurdle mark of 170. It is very hard to put an accurate figure on what Spinter Sacre has achieved over fences so far, with two wide-margin wins, so at this stage he has a figure of 161. He will be kept to novice company - he needs to have run three times over fences to be eligible to run in a class 2 or above handicap chase - for his next run over fences and hopefully we can pin down a more accurate figure then.

20th December 2011 - HERE THERE AND EVERYWHERE

Tue, 20 Dec 2011 15:07:14 GMT

There are plenty of air-miles racked up in this week�s blog. It all starts at Ascot with Europe�s most valuable handicap hurdle, on which point Dave Dickinson answers a few critics from last week. Things quickly move on to one horse�s journey across the Irish Sea, and we then head all the way to the Far East, where the biggest prizes of the week were contested. Finally we take a minute to recognise the achievements and mark the retirement of one of Flat racing�s most treasured warriors.

STAR SHINES BRIGHT

Saturday�s Ladbroke Hurdle saw a pulsating finish go the way of the Alan King-trained Raya Star, writes Dave Dickinson. With less than twenty lengths covering the entire field at the finish it is tempting to claim a triumph for the handicapper, but that�s not the whole story by any means.

One thing guaranteed to wind a handicapper up is the course commentator claiming that a finish is bunched due to a slow pace. This isn�t always true - it never seems to occur to commentators that there is a possibility that the horses are closely matched at the weights. However, I have to concur with Richard Hoiles on this occasion as this competitive handicap started in earnest only from four out. Credit goes to the winning jockey for making his move in time as most of the hold-up horses found things tough trying to pick up rivals who were themselves quickening - if you fancied a hold-up horse for the race and they let you down, don�t give up on them. Such a tight finish generally helps the handicapper and, by using Act of Kalanisi and Sailors Warn as my benchmarks, Raya Star goes up 6lb to 140 for this victory.

Now to Brampour. I used to rather like Humble Pie (especially when the late, great Steve Marriott took lead vocals) but it is a bit harder to take these days. Granted the Ladbroke wasn�t run to suit a horse like Brampour, whose strength is his stamina, nor did he like the ground in the opinion of both his rider and trainer. Nevertheless, leaving him going up 9lb would clearly be unfair as the winner Raya Star is only going up 6lb. Handicapping must always be about fairness but what seemed fair a week ago to a horse/jockey combination unbeaten in valuable handicaps hardly looks fair now. So Brampour is dropped to 162.

To those on the forums who questioned my sanity last week, maybe the closeness of the finish was a slight vindication of my handicapping in general, but had they witnessed my sole break from handicapping at the weekend (to watch the Villa on Sky for the fourth time in a month - all four games finished Aston Villa nil and I don�t remember the opposition keeper being seriously troubled) they might have felt they had a point!

BACK IN BLACK

What a difference three days make, writes Martin Greenwood. Last Tuesday Irish raider Black Mac, a well-backed 6/4-favourite in an ordinary six-runner handicap at Folkestone, only managed to finish six lengths second to Promised Wings, having raced keenly and made the running. Other than his propensity to pull there seemed little other excuse for his failure to land the mini gamble. Fast forward to Uttoxeter on Friday and the very same Black Mac lined up in a more competitive thirteen-runner affair, sent off the 9/2 third favourite on this occasion.

From the off it was obvious that his jockey was intent in using vastly different tactics this time around, and Black Mac settled comfortably at the rear of the field. Travelling like the winner from a long way out, Black Mac sluiced through the field and was still on the bridle when taking up the running two out. Coasting clear thereafter, Black Mac crossed the line twenty-three lengths clear of the remainder without his rider having to resort to any sort of pressure. Black Mac, who raced off 93 at both Folkestone and Uttoxeter, will be significantly higher if and when he is entered in the UK again - a minimum mark of 115 can be fully justified as things stand at present.

JOB DUN

The Flat turf season in Britain is well and truly over, but top-class racing can be found somewhere in the world pretty much all year round, writes Stephen Hindle. Over in Hong Kong last week it was the annual end-of-season shindig, and I�m not just talking about the meeting of the world�s top handicappers!

Having assessed the Melbourne Cup with the view that the form was very solid, it was nice to see the first two from that race finish first and third in the Hong Kong Vase.

The globetrotting Dunaden has had a terrific 2011, winning a Group 3 in April in his native France and then going on to stamp himself one of the best middle distance-stayers around with victory in the Geelong and Melbourne Cups prior to this successful foray to Hong Kong. He represents a solid 118.

A length and a half back in third in the Vase was Red Cadeaux, who followed up his fine second at Flemington with another excellent placed effort. His season started on the all-weather in early-April, when he was rated 99, but a long, progressive campaign has seen that mark climb to 115. His initial handicap mark, in 2009, was just 72. Yet to win above Group 3 level, he can surely put that right in 2012.

Of the other British raiders in the Vase, Campanologist ran a decent race in fifth, though not for the first time he flattered to deceive. Jakkalberry and Redwood were a bit disappointing relative to their best form.

Only Ransom Note ran for Britain in the Hong Kong Cup and he failed make any impact behind California Memory, who was known as Portus Blendium when trained in France. A figure of 120 was agreed for the winner, which means Cirrus des Aigles, though first home of the Europeans, was a somewhat disappointing fifth having been assessed at 128 following his victory in the Champion Stakes. The lack of pace seemed to count against him, however, so he�s probably worth forgiving the effort.

TAT-TA

Fairy tale endings are usually the stuff of fiction, but at Wolverhampton last Monday the admirable veteran sprinter The Tatling produced one of his own on his final racecourse start, writes Stewart Copeland.

In typical trademark style, he came with a thrilling late run to snatch victory with his final stride - a fitting end to a wonderful career.

He was notching up his eighteenth win in a 176-race career, which began back in May 1999; the undoubted highlight of them being his success in the Group 2 King�s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2004. He was unfortunate not to add a Group 1 success to his tally, runner-up in three successive Nunthorpes at York from 2003 to 2005, as well as finishing second in the Prix de l�Abbaye at Longchamp in 2004.

A career high rating of 115 shows what a talented horse he was in his prime, but it was his toughness and enthusiasm for the racing game which made him such a favourite with so many racing fans these past dozen years, me included. Let�s hope The Tatling has the long and happy retirement he so richly deserves.

13th December 2011 - SHOWING BACKBONE

Tue, 13 Dec 2011 12:01:18 GMT

Another week brought another big National Hunt Saturday. It was a day for tight finishes at Cheltenham and Quantitativeeasing showed real backbone in a tight three-way go up the hill in the feature Spinal Research Gold Cup. Mark Olley gives his view on that contest whilst Dave Dickinson interprets what proved a highly competitive renewal of the stanjames.com International Hurdle, a race seen by many as a Champion Hurdle trial. Matthew Tester whips in the piece with a progress report on the final standings from the Flat class of 2011.

GRINDING IT OUT

The Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup run at Cheltenham on Saturday has had more names than I have had hot dinners, writes Mark Olley. Last year it was the Vote AP Gold Cup and for those of us who are a certain age it is better known as the Massey Ferguson - hopefully you now know which race I am writing about!

The race itself was notable for several crushing mistakes by horses racing in prominent positions, notably the well-fancied David Pipe duo Great Endeavour and Salut Flo. This left Roudoudou Ville to make the best of his way home and when he went clear approaching two out he looked the likely winner. However, his surge to go clear left him with little to repel the challenges of Medermit and Quantitativeeasing and this trio pulled well clear of the ultra-consistent I�msingingtheblues.

I have moved Roudoudou Ville up 5lb to a new mark of 150 and there will clearly be �other days� for this fast improving six-year-old. Incidentally, I remember this horse being given a highly optimistic entry in a 0-90 selling handicap hurdle by his then trainers, Robert and Sally Alner, a couple of years ago when newly acquired from France!

Medermit moves to a new mark of 163 (+6lb), and with a third to Master Minded in the Grade 2 Amlin Chase at Ascot already on his CV he clearly has a future in graded company.

Those changes to the placed horses mean the winner Quantitativeeasing moves to a career high figure of 153 (+8lb). He is still relatively lightly raced - this was only his seventh chase start - and his style of racing here suggests a step up to 3m looks well within his capabilities.

As handicappers, we often attract criticism for treating the placed horses in these valuable handicaps harshly, so from that point it was very pleasing to see the runner-up from the Paddy Power Gold Cup go on to land this race. When you add to that the fact that the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Great Endeavour, was second in this race last year it becomes harder to defend that argument.

The Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase was also a race that I had to assess this week, or rather a race that I didn�t have to assess! Normally once a horse or horses get beyond the second fence from home, and then fail to finish, we try to allocate them a performance figure based around where we think they would have finished. However, in this instance, with the first seven horses starting to bunch, and there being only around six lengths between them, I took the view that it was impossible to assess this accurately.

As the first three home were in eighth, ninth and tenth when the first seven took the wrong course I have decided to leave the handicap marks of all runners unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL DUTY

A question for our readers. Mathematically, which was the best horse on the day in last Saturday�s Stanjames.com International Hurdle, asks Dave Dickinson. Tricky you may think, after all Overturn was conceding 4lb to the winner Grandouet and was beaten by four lengths. Typical handicapper trick question though because the answer is arguably neither of them.

Brampour�s jockey, the excellent Harry Derham, was not allowed to claim his usual 7lb under the conditions of the race and therefore technically comes out of the race with a figure 2lb above both winner and second. Using Sanctuaire as a benchmark, both Grandouet and Overturn ran to 166 (I have dropped the Fighting Fifth, despite not yet being convinced of Overturn�s love of Cheltenham) and I have put Brampour on 168. Would he have won the race had he been ridden by Ruby Walsh? Personally I doubt it but he�ll hold sound claims on paper if taking up his entry in the big handicap (the Ladbroke) this weekend with Derham once again able to claim his 7lb � he�ll technically be 9lb well in. Conditions race form in handicaps I hear you all saying!

Extending the logic from Brampour, his exploits and those of Grandouet have led to the belief that last season�s Triumph Hurdle was a high quality affair. Well there were clearly some high-class horses involved in the race but the eleventh home was only beaten twelve and a half lengths by the winner that day, so I would argue that the form remains less than solid. Said eleventh, Aikideau, also ran at Cheltenham over the weekend � he was beaten over fifteen lengths by the unbeaten Darlan, who was conceding him 6lb. I rest my case.

PULLING IT ALL TOGETHER

I am just back from the conference with my European colleagues where we have agreed the International Classifications for the two-year-olds, writes Matthew Tester.

Sometimes the arguments can be exhausting. One year, after an hour of discussions about the top two colts, we had still not agreed a single rating. This year was easier because we were all singing from the same hymn sheet. You will find out all about it when we hold a press conference on January 10th to reveal the World Thoroughbred Rankings.

The one sad note was the absence of the Italian Handicapper Marco Rinaldi. Italy was first included in the Classifications in 1985 and Marco has been their representative at every single conference since. A recent health scare, now happily behind him, kept him away.

It is important to stress that the figures that we reveal are not just our own work. For the European two-year-olds the panel includes Ireland, France, Germany and (usually) Italy. For the World Rankings this year fourteen countries sent representatives. It is a tiring week for the British; but all the discussions are in English so spare a thought for the hard working delegates from countries where English is not widely spoken.

6th December 2011 - SIZING UP THE TINGLE CREEK

Tue, 6 Dec 2011 12:31:11 GMT

Saturday saw the reigning two-mile Champion show some of the young guns how it�s done in the Tingle Creek, and John de Moraville gives his verdict on just how high a standard Sizing Europe is setting a present. Mark Olley runs the rule over a couple of Grand National trials he dealt with; whilst both Chris Nash and Stephen Hindle outline some younger horses we could be hearing more of in 2012.

EUROPEAN RULE

Sizing Europe underlined his position as the top two-miler with an authoritative victory in Sandown�s Tingle Creek Chase - but he did not need to run up to his best to win, writes John de Moraville.

The Henry de Bromhead-trained star, who headed last season�s Anglo-Irish Classifications on 177 thanks to his sparkling Queen Mother Champion Chase success at Cheltenham, went into Saturday�s showpiece with 13lb and upwards in hand over his six rivals.

And that superiority was strikingly apparent in the race with Andrew Lynch�s mount, back at his optimum distance, never looking in danger of defeat.

With trailblazing second-favourite Wishfull Thinking following his Paddy Power failure with another worryingly disappointing display, Sizing Europe ran to 167+ in disposing of the promising Kauto Stone, who was not helped by a jolting blunder at the fourth fence from home, by eight lengths.

The latter�s jockey Ruby Walsh had taken the earlier Grade 1, the newly-promoted Henry VIII Novices Chase, on the 11/4-on favourite Al Ferof. Running to 153, similar to the mark he posted on his impressive Cheltenham chase debut, the classy grey momentarily looked vulnerable as For Non Stop (151) loomed up after the last.

Thankfully for his supporters, he pulled out a bit extra close home. More will be needed if he is to upset Arkle favourite Peddlers Cross (160+) at Cheltenham in March.

OFF YOUR ROCKER

The Betfred Becher Chase has an illustrious roll of National stalwarts as past winners, including Earth Summit, Amberleigh House, Clan Royal, Silver Birch and Black Apalachi, and it will be interesting to see if this year�s winner West End Rocker becomes a National hero, writes Mark Olley.

Last year�s winner Hello Bud set a decent pace until depositing his rider at the Canal Turn and that, along with the very testing ground, had the field well strung out. It is never easy to assess a race when there are such big distances between the finishers and I spent far longer on this race than on any other this weekend.

I have ended up raising West End Rocker to a new mark of 149 (+12lb) while runner-up Niche Market drops 4lb to a new mark of 142. This allows 16lb for the twenty-two-length winning margin which looks pretty fair.

There is a long way to go until the National weights are finalised and with the figures from this race far from set in stone this race will be revisited as the horses run again and further evidence becomes available.

The last three National winners have been rated 150, 153 and 148 so West End Rocker nicely fits that profile. Alan King�s gelding was brought down in the race last year, but jumped very well after an early scare on Saturday and it is easy to see why he heads the ante-post betting at this stage.

Another horse to merit a mention from this weekend�s racing is Deep Purple. Evan Williams� gelding has some high-class 2m4f form to his name over the years, notably winning the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon and finishing fourth in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. He was rated 166 at his peak, but had slipped to 149 when stepped up to 3m5f at Sandown on Saturday.

Produced superbly by Paul Moloney, Deep Purple won going away by three lengths. He is another for whom I heard the National mentioned as a long term target and his new rating of 154 (+5lb) is still a long way below his career best.

WINTER WARMERS

There was a really decent renewal of the Grade 2 Winter Novices Hurdle over 2m4f at Sandown on Friday, writes Chris Nash.

The winner Fingal Bay has already had a positive mention in this feature this season and he further enhanced his claims for a prize at the Festival in March with a powerful display of galloping to beat Simonsig by two and three-quarter lengths.

The runner up travelled by far the best up the straight but when asked to go and win his race he found it impossible to peg back Fingal Bay. It was a further sixteen lengths back to Barbatos in third (pre-race rating of 137) whilst the fourth, fifth and sixth arrived with pre-race ratings of 138, 142 and 135 respectively.

There is scope to rate the front two very highly given what they beat but with the champion novice hurdlers of last year (Al Ferof and Spirit Son) being rated 154 I am keen to keep some perspective until both are tested at the highest level. I have settled on a figure of 149 for Fingal Bay and 146 for Simonsig � both represent career best efforts and both remain progressive horses. Their styles of running could not be more contrasting and there are reasons to believe that the 2m4f trip might prove to be the minimum that the winner requires and the maximum that the runner-up wants for now.

LATE BLOOMER

It�s off to Hong Kong for some fortunate (or not, as the case may be) members of the handicapping team, where they will be discussing performances worthy of at least 110 with their international colleagues, writes Stephen Hindle.

From what I�ve heard (lesser lights like me don�t get invited!) the team begins discussions at the top and then work their way down, so presumably they will begin with Frankel and it will be a while before they reach Barbican, a late contender for inclusion after his five-length romp in the listed Wild Flower Stakes at Kempton.

Alan Bailey�s three-year-old has had an excellent first season racing, winning six of his ten starts, which began in a maiden at Wolverhampton back in February. Since then he has done nothing but improve, and giving 7lb (factoring in weight for age) and a beating to the 102-rated Ceilidh House was no mean feat.

The runner-up possibly didn�t see out the trip stepping up from 1m2f, but the first two still pulled seven lengths and more clear of the rest and Barbican looks to have improved on his 106 rating. I settled on 111 to keep him lower than the two who beat him in Group 3 company at Newbury on his previous outing, though the figure could be higher on all those he beat at Kempton.

It will be interesting to see how connections campaign Barbican in 2012. He has winning form from an extended 1m to 1m6f, and there�s no reason to doubt his being a force in at least minor pattern company.

29th November 2011 - AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

Tue, 29 Nov 2011 12:04:16 GMT

We have some variety on offer this week with both Flat and jumps covered. The highlight of the week was of course the Hennessy meeting and a feature on the big race itself can be found in Phil Smith�s Head of Handicapping blog. In this section you can find articles covering more action at the Hennessy meeting, as well as the Fighting Fifth Hurdle and even something from abroad!

For the fourth consecutive year, the favourite has triumphed in the Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier on the Friday of the Newbury Hennessy meeting, writes Martin Greenwood.

Normally I would be a little agitated at such a stat. Why are the majority of the punting public managing to find the winner in a supposedly competitive race?

The bare facts, however, hide a crucial point. Three of those winners had already been raised in the ratings by the handicapper in question�me�but they were all allowed to run off their previous inferior marks.

You may well ask why this situation is allowed to happen and for those of you who are not up to speed with how the system works, I will enlighten you.

Any horse who runs on a Sunday to a Saturday inclusive and has its rating altered has got until the following Friday to run under its old mark (or under a penalty in the case of a winner). The recent winner of the Newbury race, Sivola de Sivola, is a good example. He ran his best race to date (at that time) when fifth to the highly promising Fingal Bay in the Grade 2 novice on the Sunday of the Cheltenham Open meeting (on the 13th November). I raised him from 122 to 128 after that run, but the horse�s connections had until the 25th November to take advantage of his old mark, and he duly obliged at 7/2 by five lengths, earning himself a new rating of 132. Obviously if he had to carry an extra 6lb, then both his starting price and the result would have in theory been much more competitive.

The 2010 and 2008 versions of the same race had very similar patterns. Ballydub had 7lb in hand when winning the latter at 5/4 having finished second at the same Cheltenham meeting, while Barafundle came good last year after chasing home Grands Crus at Haydock, and again was due a 7lb raise in the ratings.

While I can gain some solace from the fact that I was right to raise each of the three winners, it is slightly irksome that a race as supposedly competitive as the one at Newbury is rarely run on a level playing field.
Connections of the winners, of course, won�t care a jot. Connections of the beaten horses may well be left rueing the way the system works.

NEWCASTLE�S STAR TURN

Newcastle�s stanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle became another notch on the bedpost of the extraordinary Overturn, who in the process became the first horse to complete the Northumberland Plate/Fighting Fifth double at the Gosforth Park track, writes Dave Dickinson.

Add to those wins a Galway Hurdle and a Chester Cup and Donald McCain�s seven-year-old is approaching the legend stage in terms of true dual-purpose horses.

Has he improved this winter? Very probably, and he reversed January�s Christmas Hurdle form with Binocular by around eight lengths, his rating going up to a career-high 168.

He showed real determination at Newcastle on ground that has in the past seemed slower than ideal, jumping well, and while he may not be best suited to Cheltenham (a course which hardly favours front runners) he has surely earned the right to have another crack at the Champion Hurdle. Connections will no doubt hope the ground is as quick as is safely possible come the big day.

There are often pieces in the press regarding the small fields for conditions races such as this. Two Northern-trained outsiders took their chance, both rated 113 going into the race against three rivals rated in the 160�s.

They fared differently. Kosta Brava was well tailed off after pulling too hard but Stormy Weather appeared to run really, well finishing only ten lengths behind Celestial Halo, who had won a handicap last time out off his mark of 160.

Their new marks? Stormy Weather stays on 113 and Kosta Brava drops three to 110. Both sets of connections can be very pleased with their afternoon�s work, having pocketed four-figure sums in place money.

RIFLES STILL FIRING

One of the main jobs for some of the team at present is working on the various drafts of the top Flat horses for discussion at the World Rankings conference, which takes place in Hong Kong early next month, writes Stewart Copeland.

I put the finishing touches to the sprint draft last week, which includes all British-trained horses we believe worthy of a 110+ performance.
At least I thought I�d made the finishing touches, because a late contender for the list popped up in the shape of Eton Rifles, a six-year-old gelding now in the care of Stuart Williams.

It�s been a tremendous season for Eton Rifles; he won a handicap at Goodwood in August and was an excellent second in the Ayr Gold Cup the following month. That was soon followed by a Listed success at the Curragh.

However, his second success in Listed company, the six-furlong Prix Contessina at Fontainebleau, is arguably a career-best effort. His two-length defeat of Fred Lalloupet, a consistent performer at Listed/Group level in France, equates to an improved rating of 111 (he was rated 106 prior to the race in France).

A tough and genuine individual, he seems well suited by plenty of give in the ground � both Listed successes were on soft � and he could well make his presence felt in Pattern company next year, particularly if the heavens open.

In a usual British summer that�s almost a given!