British Horseracing Authority Handicappers Blog

4th June 2013 - GLOOMY NAME, BRIGHT FUTURE?

Tue, 4 Jun 2013 13:08:56 GMT

Following a busy week of British Racing, the BHA Handicappers have plenty to discuss in this week's Blog. Stephen Hindle looks back at Thursday�s Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown, whilst Chris Nash assesses the most exciting finish of the weekend - Duke of Firenze�s last-gasp win in the Investec Dash.

Meanwhile, Dominic Gardiner-Hill covers the best of the 1m action from Sandown, Epsom and Doncaster including Gregorian's victory in the Investec Diomed Stakes. The Investec Oaks and Derby were the highlights of the week, both are covered in Phil Smith�s Head of Handicapping Blog.

GLOOMY NAME, BRIGHT FUTURE?

The Seymour Pierce Henry II Stakes at Sandown looked very interesting beforehand. Last year�s Gold Cup winner Colour Vision was in the line-up, as were other highly rated stayers, namely Times Up, successful twice in Group 2 company last year, Cavalryman, who won a Group 3 in Dubai in March, and High Jinx, who was last seen finishing second in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran at Longchamp in October, writes Stephen Hindle.

With so many big names in attendance, it was a race I was looking forward to and on paper it looked like an above average Group 3. They don�t run the races on paper, however, and none of the above named quartet managed to even reach the placings.

Whilst three of those four were coming back from long absences and the other, Cavalryman, was having his first race back in Britain, it was a little deflating to see the race dominated by the three lowest rated horses going in, and as such it can�t be viewed as a vintage renewal.

The only horse to run in Thursday�s race not entered in the Gold Cup is the winner, French filly Gloomy Sunday. She�s unexposed over long distances, though she�d given an indication as to her stamina when finishing second in a listed race at Saint Cloud in April over an extended mile and seven furlongs - at the time the furthest she�d run.

A bigger question mark as to the level of this form comes from the second, Number Theory. The five year old progressed rapidly last year, winning three times at Haydock and also finished third in the Ebor, but this is another level altogether.

In third was Model Pupil, who did at least come in as the most unexposed in the field having had only half a dozen races previously. Also, he�d never run beyond a mile and a half.

I felt Model Pupil was probably the horse to concentrate on when it came to rating the race. Despite being rated only 104 going in, he was joint fourth in the betting and surely ran to a similar level as in the past. He was rated 107 after finishing second in last year�s Chester Vase, and I elected to raise him to 106 after this to get him higher than some of those he beat and to fit in with the overall view I wanted to take of this race, which was that in the end it was just an average renewal.

A figure of 106 for Model Pupil equated to 109 for Gloomy Sunday and 108 for Number Theory, who was previously rated 98. It seems a big enough rise for the last-named, but the race has to be viewed as a whole and if you remove Number Theory from the result, this level would not look particularly high, and as already mentioned he was progressive last year and in addition to that he had not previously encountered two miles.

The steady early pace possibly didn�t suit High Jinx, whose previous race had been at two and a half miles, and I left him on 113. I also left Cavalryman and Times Up, both 115, as there seems little wrong with their most recent form.

Colour Vision is another who possibly would have appreciated more of a test, but this still has to go down as somewhat disappointing and he has failed to repeat his Gold Cup form several times now. I dropped him to 114, which reflects his best form since Royal Ascot.

FIRENZE DASHES HOME

One of the feature 5f handicap races of the season is the Investec Dash at Epsom on Derby day. It is usually an action packed race and the 2013 renewal was no different, writes Chris Nash.

The race was a cracking spectacle and produced a finish where the result only took shape in the last 30 yards. This contest is famed as a speed test and is frequently won by horses ridden handy � indeed the last three winners (Stone Of Folca, Captain Dunne and Bertoliver) were all ridden in that way. Deep inside the final furlong it looked like that pattern would be repeated with Fair Value in front and seemingly in control only to be swamped late on by horses who rocketed home from nowhere. Duke Of Firenze took the spoils by a neck from Smoothtalkinrascal with a further neck back to Dinkum Diamond. Fair Value crossed the line in fourth just a short-head behind the third and the first 12 home were covered by less than three lengths � a handicappers delight.

The first two were still in the last four at the furlong marker and the way they scythed through the field made tremendous viewing. Duke Of Firenze ran off a mark of 97 and the narrow margin of his victory means that he can only be reassessed 4lb higher to 101. Smoothtalkinrascal was burdened with a penalty for winning his previous race at York and so lined up off 103 even though his current rating was only 100. He will be raised to 106. Both horses have shown progressive form this season and both returned career best efforts on Saturday. As has been pointed out in this feature on a few occasions the difference between top class sprint handicap form and the level required to be competitive in Listed and Group races is very marginal and there is every chance that the first two will make their mark at a higher level before the season is out. The presence of Dinkum Diamond in third gives substance to that argument as in 2011 he was placed four times in Listed sprints and once in a Group 3 reaching a peak rating of 108. His run on Saturday will see him rated 103. Fair Value goes up 1lb from 90 to 91 and the nature of the finish means that only slight alterations (if any) are needed to the ratings of the 5th � 12th placed finishers.

THISTLE BIRD FLIES AT EPSOM

Whilst the emerging stars of the middle distance category took centre stage last week there was still some good quality racing for me to enjoy in the mile category, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Best of the action took place in the Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3) on Friday at Epsom when John Gosden�s Gregorian returned to somewhere near the best of last year�s form to take the race ahead of Penitent and Gabrial. Rated 114 in last year�s World Thoroughbred Rankings on the back of placed efforts in the St James�s Palace and the Prix Jean Prat, I have Gregorian running to 113 at Epsom in the belief that runner-up Penitent has returned to his best of 115 given that he had some cut in the ground for the first time this year. Third placed Gabrial has performed to 110 but will remain on his pre-race figure of 111 as I�m not entirely convinced being held up so far off the pace in a moderately run contest saw him to best effect.

Earlier in the afternoon Roger Charlton�s wonderfully consistent Thistle Bird justified top rating in the Investec Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) with a battling success over Gifted Girl and Ladys First. Looking back at her form of last season it is possible that she was slightly underrated at 107 and on the back of her success last week I have raised her to 108, with easy Ascot handicap winner Gifted Girl going up 2lb from 104 to 106 and Ladys First remaining on her pre-race mark of 105.

Earlier in the week Montiridge repaid trainer Richard Hannon�s faith in him with a convincing success in the Heron Stakes at Sandown. With just four runners going to post it is not an easy race to get a handle on in terms of level, but the winner stretched nicely clear up the hill and I have raised his mark 5lb to 109 � there will be greater challenges ahead for him and it will be interesting to see if he can justify that mark in stronger company.

As far as the week�s handicaps were concerned it was a mixed bag. It was satisfying to see old stagers Spa�s Dancer (career best off 92 when winning at Sandown, goes to 97) and Vainglory (first success since October 2011 off 85 at Epsom, goes to 90) both score but what looked a competitive three year old handicap at Doncaster on Saturday was blown apart by John Gosden�s Remote who landed the contest by six lengths. I took a fair bit of stick for the result from a number of trainers on Monday morning and, as we always do in these situations, you go back and have a look at its previous form to see if anything could (or should) have been done differently � in this case I don�t believe there was and Remote is just a fast improving colt who was having only his third run. I have raised his mark from 89 to 103 and will be interested to see which path they follow with him now � will they run off the new rating in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot or head straight into Listed/Group company. Whichever it is, I suspect his end of season rating may well be in excess of his current perch!!!

21st May 2013 - SOCIETY ROCKS THE KNAVESMIRE

Tue, 21 May 2013 14:07:55 GMT

In this week's Blog, Stewart Copeland assesses Society Rock's victory in the Duke of York Stakes, whilst Stephen Hindle explains Mad Moose's rise in the weights following his second to Mount Athos in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester.

SOCIETY ROCKS THE KNAVESMIRE

Plenty of runners and plenty of quality was the order of the day in this year�s renewal of the Group 2 Clipper Logistics Duke of York Stakes, the first major turf sprint over six furlongs of the season on these shores. The weather was unseasonably cold and wet, with a strong headwind as well, which meant conditions were tough for all at the Knavesmire, both equine and human, writes Stewart Copeland.

A total of 17 went to post, and at least seven of the field had already shown a level of form good enough to win an average renewal. It was one of those, Society Rock, who triumphed on the day, which made up for a somewhat unlucky defeat in the race last year.

Society Rock�s rating of 117 meant he was the joint highest rated British sprinter in last year�s World Thoroughbred Rankings and with his victory here, he showed himself as good as ever. Carrying a 5lb penalty for his success in the 6f Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock last September, he got the better of a stirring finish with Lethal Force to prevail by a head. This meant Society Rock comes out a 6lb better horse than the runner-up, who�s rated 111 on the strength of his success in the 7f Group 2 Betfred Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last year. A rather neat fit you could say, and Society Rock�s winning performance was as good as a performance we�ve seen in this race over the past decade.

Back in third place a further one and a quarter lengths behind was the Irish-trained Gordon Lord Byron. The highest rated in the field at 118 based on his win in the 7f Group 1 Foret Stakes at last year�s Arc meeting, which also meant he had to shoulder a Group 1 penalty as well. I have him running to 113 and he emerges with plenty of credit as his low draw seemed a disadvantage, given he raced away from the main pace down the centre of the track, which the first two tracked.

Arguably the unlucky horse of the race though was Hawkeyethenoo. Travelling strongly just off the pace, he looked set to throw down a possible winning challenge when denied a clear run over a furlong out. Once in the clear inside the last he finished strongly to finish a further nose back in fourth. With an uninterrupted passage he would have surely gone close. Currently rated 112, I have him running to 108 but given the trouble he encountered I�ve left his rating unchanged.

The above may all renew rivalry in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot next month, with Society Rock trying to repeat his success of 2011, and regain the crown he relinquished to the wonderful mare Black Caviar last year. With another likely strong overseas challenge as well this year, it promises to be a fascinating affair.

THE MAD PROFESSIONAL?

In an article printed in the Racing Post on Wednesday 15th May under the headline �Mad Moose owners hit out over ratings rise�, my revised handicap mark for the gelding after his second in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester was described as �crazy� by Tom Palin from Middleham Park Racing, which owns the gelding, writes Stephen Hindle.

Another member of the syndicate, Nick Bradley, suggested via his Twitter feed that I �must have been watching a different race� to him. They didn�t bother to contact me for an explanation before blasting the change via their respective forms of communication, but for those of you who are interested in how I came to the new rating, I will do my best to explain.

The winner of the Ormonde, Mount Athos, is a high-class individual who has a rating of 117, and won as easily as his mark suggested he should given the disappointing performance of the favourite, Memphis Tennessee. Mr Bradley accuses me in the article of reading everything literally, by which I assume he thinks I have not factored in extra for the winner�s style of victory. I can assure him that I have, as otherwise the rating for Mad Moose would have been nearer 105. I certainly haven�t taken the 14 lengths back to third-placed Communicator literally, as then it would have been somewhere around 115 and the winner would have gone up.

As with many small-field non handicaps, the form is open to doubt, and it may well be that I have rated it too high or too low. Just as when Mad Moose made his Flat debut at Doncaster, however, I was committed to coming up with a figure, and to do that I not only took the ratings of the winner and the third into account, but also race averages, which are a common tool for handicappers when assessing races that are difficult to evaluate.

To understand race averages, I should quickly point out that we use �performance ratings� to help us compile our official ratings. Performance ratings are essentially a measure of a horse�s performance in an individual race relative to other horses. From 2008 to 2012 inclusive, the average performance rating of the runner-up in the Ormonde is 104. For the third it is 101, which actually suggests I�ve taken a conservative view of Mad Moose�s run.

The �crazy� part of the article refers to the fact that Mad Moose is a jumps horse now rated 100 on the Flat. He may have started his career under National Hunt rules, but as far as I�m concerned, racehorses are racehorses and should be judged on what they do on the track. Some make better jumpers and others make better Flat horses, but more often than not if a horse shows a decent level of ability in one code it does in the other too. Sticking with Chester, Ile de Re was rated 123 over hurdles before winning last year�s Chester Cup, then won off a Flat mark of 101 in the Northumberland Plate next time out. Mad Moose is currently rated 143 over fences and 139 over hurdles. He finished second to none other than Sprinter Sacre in a Grade 1 chase at Cheltenham in January.

Admittedly, �The Black Aeroplane� was, as usual, untroubled but Only Sizing Europe and Cue Card have finished closer to him this year, so is it really crazy to think Mad Moose could perform to 100 on the Flat?

I admit that a 21lb rise is a hefty amount in one go, but let�s remember we are talking about a horse who�d had only one previous run on the Flat, not one who�d been beaten off 79 in handicaps half a dozen times in succession. The less that is known about a horse�s form, and those of some of its rivals, as at Doncaster, the more the likelihood of initial assessments being wide of the mark increases. The Doncaster race has worked out very well so far, and I have gone back and raised the level twice since taking my initial view.

Apparently, the reason Mad Moose�s connections were so dismayed is because they wanted to run him in the 0-95 Ascot Stakes. Mr Bradley is quoted in the Racing Post article as saying �he won�t get in now�, which is interesting as even if he were on 95 now, they would still have to give him at least one more run on the Flat due to the value of the race.

Let�s pretend for a moment that Mad Moose�s connections had their hearts set on another race at Royal Ascot, the Queen Alexandra Stakes, and that Mad Moose were on 95 or less. That particular contest is subject to an elimination sequence if oversubscribed, and the lowest rated horses on the Flat are eliminated first. In the unlikely event that a mass of 95+ horses were entered, including Ormonde third Communicator, I wonder if Middleham Park Racing would be up in arms over the fact that Mad Moose would be at risk of being balloted out in favour of the 96-rated Communicator, having beaten him at Chester.

As public handicappers we are supposed to favour the majority over the minority. Qualified for the Ascot Stakes or not, if I rate Mad Moose 95 when I feel he is more deserving of 100, it would be unfair on the connections of other horses in the Ascot Stakes and it would deny another horse a run in the race. One of the few downsides to this job is that many owners and trainers, perhaps understandably but frustratingly for us, have eyes only for their own horses when airing their views.

GLEN'S DIAMOND SPARKLES IN YORKSHIRE CUP

In more recent news, a much easier race to assess was the Group 2 QIPCO Yorkshire Cup, with Glen�s Diamond clinging on by the narrowest of margins.

Glen�s Diamond seems to relish this contest, having turned in what was at the time a career best when finishing runner-up to Red Cadeaux in it last year. He started a 25/1 outsider of eight in both runnings, but defied those odds this time round in a thrilling finish, passing the post a nose in front of Top Trip.

There was something of an international feel to the first three, with Glen�s Diamond trained in Britain, Top Trip in France and third-home Royal Diamond in Ireland. Returning Glen�s Diamond to his previous highest mark of 113 seemed the obvious thing to do as that would have Top Trip and Royal Diamond running very close to their recent figures.

Despite being a lower class event, I rated the win of Willing Foe in the following day�s Listed JLT Aston Park Stakes more highly.

Willing Foe had looked a horse going places when taking the Ebor last year, when he had Royal Diamond back in second. He met with defeat on his final three starts of 2012 but possibly wasn�t ideally suited by the soft ground and, back on firmer turf on his reappearance, he stretched six lengths clear of the 110-rated Harris Tweed at Newbury.

I doubt Harris Tweed ran to his mark but there was little getting away from a fairly lofty figure for Willing Foe with nothing in the race, save for the 85-rated Saint Hilary in sixth, holding down the form.

Using race averages as a guide, anything above 115 would be a significantly high figure for this event. I think Willing Foe is a very talented horse, but 116 or higher would put him on a par with some of the Group 1 stayers I�ve seen over the past 12 months or so, and I felt happier slotting him in just behind those for now.

14th May 2013 � FAHEY TO THE FORE IN CHESTER CUP

Tue, 14 May 2013 15:22:46 GMT

In this week�s Blog, Stephen Hindle discusses the Chester Cup, won by Marwan Koukash�s Address Unknown, whilst Dominic Gardiner-Hill makes sense of the QIPCO 1,000 Guineas that provided Richard Hughes with his first British Classic win on Sky Lantern, but featured a disappointing beaten favourite in Hot Snap. For Jump enthusiasts, David Dickinson looks at Barizan�s victory in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock.

FAHEY TO THE FORE IN CHESTER CUP

One man who�ll have fond memories of the 2013 stanjames.com Chester Cup is Richard Fahey, whose only two runners in the race finished first and second, writes Stephen Hindle.

Address Unknown, owned by Marwan Koukash, who had no fewer than four runners in the race, ran out a half-length winner, despite failing to keep straight, from Ingleby Spirit.

As with the vast majority of these top staying handicaps, it�s usually a good idea to view the form positively. This year�s renewal seems no exception, with the next three home having run well in similar events in the past.

Third-home Tominator won the Northumberland Plate in 2011 for the late Reg Hollinshead. Now in the care of Jonjo O�Neill, he looks just as good, if not better, than ever having been beaten by less than a length here off a 10lb higher mark than when successful at Newcastle.

Simenon, the joint top-weight, ran an excellent race in fourth, making up the best part of 10 lengths in the final 2f and beaten by just over a length at the line. He too has winning form in prestige events, having won twice at Royal Ascot last year.

Joint-favourite Countrywide Flame was second in the Cesarewitch when last seen on the Flat but is better known as one of the top hurdlers around, having finished third in this year�s Champion Hurdle. He gives the Chester Cup form further substance in fifth, just a head behind Simenon.

The first five had clearly run well and, in opening a small gap to the rest, it seemed sensible to think they had all run above their marks, so I raised all of them. That meant a 4lb rise to 101 for Address Unknown, 2lb to 93 for Ingleby Spirit, 2lb to 102 for Tominator and 1lb each for Simenon (to 108, though no actual rating change to put through as he is Irish-trained) and Countrywide Flame (to 93).

Of those in behind, the other joint-favourite, Justification, didn�t have things go his way and is possibly worth another chance, whilst Suraj ended up with a fair bit to do on his first run in nearly 6 months and, despite finishing tenth, this wasn�t a bad effort. He ran several pounds below his rating though, so I still felt compelled to drop him a couple, and he is now eligible for 0-95s.

Further back in the field, Buckland was disappointing having run so well in the Sagaro. This clearly wasn�t his running though and the level of the Sagaro stays the same, at least for now.

Ile de Re won this last year and then followed up in the Northumberland Plate, but those races were run on much softer ground and he found himself back in thirteenth this time. Surprisingly for such a big handicap, the form of the Northumberland Plate hasn�t worked out and I�ve dropped Ile de Re by 2lb to 103.

Finally, a quick mention for Mount Athos, who was left with little to beat due to the disappointing performance of Memphis Tennessee in the Boodles Diamond Ormonde Stakes, but he looked as good as ever on his reappearance, leaving his Group 3 opposition trailing and looking well worth his lofty rating of 117. Another owned by Marwan Koukash, a repeat bid in the Melbourne Cup, a race in which he finished fifth last year, is apparently the long-term goal again.

SKY LANTERN PUTS CHAMPION JOCKEY ON CLOUD NINE

Having witnessed one of the best 2,000 Guineas performances of recent years the previous day with Dawn Approach�s romp across the heath, the QIPCO 1,000 Guineas last Sunday produced a closer and more thrilling finish but a winner that ranks at the lower end of recent winners in terms of her rating, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

I am in no way decrying Sky Lantern and hope that she can go on and improve upon her rating as the season progresses but at the present time it is hard to raise her from her pre-race rating of 111 � a figure which puts her on a par with Jacqueline Quest (disqualified) and Special Duty (awarded the race) in the 2010 renewal.

Having returned figures of 111 when winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes at The Curragh last year and when runner-up in the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes on her reappearance, Sky Lantern appears to performed to that figure for a third time. Under normal circumstances one would expect a Classic winning performance to be an improvement on what has gone before but in this case I find that hard to justify. Half-length runner-up Just The Judge went into the race rated 107 and is raised 3lb to a new mark of 110 for her effort, fourth placed Winning Express is also raised 3lb from 104 to 107, Irish challenger Snow Queen had a mark of 100 pre-race and is raised 6lb to 106 for finishing fifth, the winner�s stable mate Maureen is adjudged to have run to her 106 in sixth whilst eighth placed Masarah goes up 5lb to 100 for her effort.

In short four of the first eight home have been raised, two stay the same, third placed Moth didn�t have a published rating pre-race so leaving French challenger What A Name as the only top eight finisher to have run below form � as I said, it is difficult to get Sky Lantern any higher!!

One slight query I had post-race concerned the rides given to the Moth and Maureen � both flew late and finished in eye-catching style. I cannot decide at the present time if Messers O�Brien and Peslier gave them too much to do or whether they are a pair of fillies who basically need a stiffer test than Sunday�s mile presented � hopefully the answer will become clear as the season progresses.

In terms of revised ratings the problem horse from my perspective was vanquished favourite Hot Snap, ninth, who was one of the first beaten - she was the top rated filly going into the race with a mark of 113 gained when winning the Nell Gwyn but �blew out� in no uncertain terms on the big day. It is unusual to leave the winner of a trial rated above the winner of a Classic but given that she beat Sky Lantern and Winning Express pretty comprehensively in the Nell Gwyn it is safe to say she didn�t run anywhere near her best on Sunday and her form has a solid look to it � given the subsequent reports from connections it appears all was not well with her and I am happy to leave her on 113 for the time being. Fingers crossed she returns later in the season to prove that decision right or wrong...

BARIZAN BOUNCES BACK

Barizan�s return to top form in winning the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday was a welcome sight for his backers, but the long gap back to the third horse gave me a considerable headache, writes David Dickinson.

Granted the race was transformed by morning rain and two high profile withdrawals but my problem was that every horse finishing between third and ninth had run to their mark last time out, all bar one of them within the previous six weeks. So just how much should I call the 19 lengths between second and third. Second home Mr Mole, has travelled like a really good horse but has been described as quirky, his head goes in the air somewhat and he does hang, that said he continued to close near the line.

So my first decision was to call the half a length that Barizan beat him 2lb as the winner looked decidedly on top after the last. I also then decided that those between third and ninth should not move significantly in the ratings but that still left the problem of what to call that 19 length gap.

I took the view that the much publicised wind operation and the first time tongue tie had seen Evan Williams coax his charge back to something like his best for this considerable prize. At his best as a juvenile, Barizan was rated 146 for his Triumph Hurdle second, a rating that included seven pounds of weight-for-age. The rating of 138 I have allotted him for this success is within a pound of that figure with the weight for age taken out but also gives him a chance in a further handicap if he can recapture that high mark of 146.

The runner up Mr Mole goes up by two pounds less to 152 from 142.

7th May 2013 - A NEW DAWN

Tue, 7 May 2013 12:52:32 GMT

The QIPCO 2,000 Guineas might not have lived up to its match-race billing but it will certainly live long in the memory following a dominant display from Dawn Approach. Dominic Gardiner-Hill takes this opportunity to put his five-length hammering of the classic field into context. Additionally there was a strong supporting card at Newmarket on Saturday and also a significant meeting at Ascot earlier in the week - the highlights of both are also covered.

DAWN RISES

For those suffering withdrawal symptoms having being carried along on the wave of euphoria created by Frankel over the last couple of years, the imperious display of the �new kid on the block� Dawn Approach in Saturday�s QIPCO 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket came along at just the right time, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

The Champion two-year-old of Europe last year with a mark of 124, Jim Bolger�s colt extended his unbeaten record to seven with a five-length demolition of the opposition and now looks the probable star of this summer. In truth it is not the easiest race to get a handle on in terms of ratings, with Kevin Ryan�s Glory Awaits (beaten in a Doncaster nursery off 87 last September) appearing to excel in blinkers for the first time and running way above his pre-race mark of 95 in finishing second.

For me the key to the race lies with eighth-placed Don�t Bother Me (pre-race 103) and eleventh-placed Correspondent (92) running pretty much to their marks in being beaten 10 lengths and 15 lengths respectively � working up from these two I have Dawn Approach returning a figure of 125, Glory Awaits 114, Van Der Neer 110 and the disappointing Toronado 109 in finishing fourth. I could conceivably have used Van Der Neer (114) as a guide, with Toronado performing just 1lb shy of his two-year-old mark of 114 but to me this drags up Don�t Bother Me and Correspondent beyond previous levels and has Glory Awaits on 118 � good enough to have won two of the last 10 renewals which I believe unlikely at this stage!

At 125 Dawn Approach�s performance would have been good enough to win 16 of the last 17 runnings of the 2,000 Guineas, the exception being Frankel�s stunning 2011 renewal, so he is certainly something worth looking forward to in the coming months.

Mystery of the race was the performance of the much-vaunted Toronado - I expressed myself a fan of the horse after his impressive comeback victory in the Craven and allotted him a mark of 121 for that success but whichever level you use for Saturday�s race he came nowhere near reproducing that. To the naked eye he appeared a non-stayer, backed up by the fact that his time for the final furlong (14.20 secs) was the slowest amongst the first eight horses home and in essence he lost six lengths on Dawn Approach through that last furlong. For a horse touted as a possible Derby candidate this seems unlikely and I cannot believe his finishing position is a true representation of his ability � I can see him proving himself the second best horse in the race by the end of the season but for the time being I have dropped his rating 3lb to a new mark of 118 after revisiting the Craven.

As Sunday�s QIPCO 1,000 Guineas forms part of the next racing week I haven�t as yet finalised my figures for the race, although a winning performance of somewhere between 111 and 113 for Sky Lantern seems most likely at the present time.

POWER PACKED

The most prestigious 5f race of the 2013 season thus far was the Group 3 Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes run at Newmarket on Saturday, writes Chris Nash.

There was a disputed lead and so the pace looked solid. The time of the race was under standard (this was the only race on the card to manage that) and there was no trouble in running. All in all there are reasons to take a positive view of the form and I would hope (and expect) that it will prove reliable over the coming months.

The race was won in tidy fashion by the Irish-trained Sole Power. Edward Lynam�s six-year-old thrives in a well-run 5f race on quick ground and, given his conditions, can usually be relied upon to put in a performance - he won the Nunthorpe (Group 1) in 2010 and last year was second in the Temple Stakes (Group 2) and third in the Kings Stand Stakes (Group 1).

Sole Power arrived with a rating of 113 and I have no reason to doubt that he ran his race again. Kingsgate Native finished a length behind him in second and has run to a figure of 110. This represents a recent best but he�s a dual Group 1 winner going back and was rated as high as 120 after the 2008 Golden Jubilee.

The last-time-out winners Tangerine Trees (pre-race 106) and Heeraat (pre-race 108) finished third and fourth. They were separated by a short-head and finished a length and a quarter behind Kingsgate Native. I have both running to 106 and their presence gives the form further substance. The next 5f pattern race is the Temple Stakes at Haydock on Saturday 25th May and plenty of these will likely renew rivalry there.

HATS OFF AT ASCOT!

In the immediate aftermath of the 2013 Longines Sagaro Stakes, the Ascot Group 3 appeared as if it would be an easy race to assess, writes Stephen Hindle.

The Queen�s Estimate, joint top rated at the weights, emerged victorious by a length and three-quarters over Caucus, who went in rated 1lb higher than third-placed Sir Graham Wade and duly beat that rival half a length.

Easy? Well, perhaps the second and third did run to their pre-race marks of 105 and 104, and with the fourth, Buckland, going in on just 94 (98 on the all-weather), it would be understandable to think the placed horses had not improved. Rightly or wrongly, however, I took a slightly different view.

Ultimately I had Estimate running to her pre-race mark of 108, but that wasn�t the determining factor. The form of Caucus� previous outing, a win in a listed race at Newmarket back in September, has largely worked out. The runner-up that day, Cavalryman, is a solid Group-race performer, currently rated 115 having won a Group 3 in Dubai. Third home at Newmarket was Lost In The Moment, another Godolphin inmate with solid form at Group level, and my underlying feeling was that 105 could be a bit low for Caucus. After all, he has won at listed level and has now been placed in a Group 3.

I�ve since raised the level of Caucus� Newmarket win to tie in with the 108 I have him running to here, which obviously means a rise to 107 for Sir Graham Wade, who had a terrific 2012 and is very possibly still improving at the age of four.

Buckland raises a few doubts as to the level as he appears to have run to 104, but he has been improving rapidly since stepped up in trip earlier in the year, racking up four straight wins in all-weather handicaps having been rated as low as 70 just over two months ago, and who�s to say he hasn�t improved again in this? What is for sure is that he�s just as good on turf as all-weather.

Whatever the form is worth, Estimate seems sure to go for the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot next. She�ll have some improving to do but has had only six races so there�s every possibility of that, and she certainly shapes as if she�ll stay. She�s also bred to get the trip, being a Monsun half-sister to the 1999 Gold Cup winner Enzeli.

25th April 2013 - TORONADO BLOWS AWAY CRAVEN RIVALS

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 11:12:09 GMT

The Flat season continued to gain momentum last week as Newmarket hosted the Craven meeting and Newbury held its two day Spring meeting. This week both Dominic Gardiner-Hill and Graeme Smith assess Guineas trials and Guineas hopefuls, including the impressive Toronado and QIPCO 1,000 Guineas ante-post favourite, Hot Snap.

TORONADO BLOWS AWAY CRAVEN RIVALS

The best performance of the week in any contest not just a classic trial came from the much vaunted Toronado in the Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes at Newmarket writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Although a little short of numbers with just four runners, the race appeared to have plenty of quality with the minimum rating of the four being 110 but Toronado kept his unbeaten record intact with a convincing four length success from Havan Gold (110) � I have raised his mark from 114 to 121 for the performance and believe there is more to come. To my eyes he was having a bit of �a look around� at points in the closing stages and I hope that this good looking son of High Chaparral will continue onwards and upwards from here.

A reproduction of his 121 would have seen him finish at least second in the last 10 2,000 Guineas, whilst it would have been good enough to win six of them � however, he still remains 3lb shy of last season�s Champion 2yo Dawn Approach (124) and the prospect of the two of them doing battle a week on Saturday at Newmarket is mouth-watering to say the least.

Elsewhere at Newmarket Jane Chapple-Hyam�s Mull of Killough continued his progress through the ranks when taking the Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Earl of Sefton Stakes. The figures fit quite neatly with runner-up Stipulate (110) and fourth placed Boom and Bust (106) having pretty much reproduced their marks which suggest that the winner has improved 3lb from 113 to 116 � which the trainer hopes will be enough to get him an invite to the Singapore Cup.

Much of the interest in the race centred on the reappearance of the now gelded Bonfire who earned a figure of 114 last year for his success in the Dante at York. He still looked a far from straightforward ride and in my book ran to 106 in finishing third - Given that this was his third below par run since York, I have brought his published mark down 4lb to 110. It may be he requires softer ground than he encountered on Newmarket and it will be interesting to see if such conditions can bring about a return to former levels.

With an eye on the future the other interesting performance at HQ came from the Andre Fabre trained Intello in the EBM-Papst Feilden Stakes. With finishing distances of three and a half lengths, seven lengths, and half a length, it is not an easy race to rate with any confidence but I was impressed with his manner of victory and both myself and my French colleagues think this unbeaten in three colt to be a useful performer in the making � I have pencilled in a performance of 110 for him but he is another I would expect to improve on that as the season progresses.

OLYMPIC GLORY WINS ANOTHER GOLD MEDAL

The Flat season undoubtedly cranked up a notch last week and I had the pleasure of assessing the majority of the recognised Guineas trials at Newmarket and Newbury having taken responsibility for the top-level 7f races, writes Graeme Smith.

Ante-post markets suggest there�s a strong chance I didn�t come across the QIPCO 2,000 Guineas winner, with the Aon Greenham Stakes winner Olympic Glory seemingly set to contest the French version and the CSP European Free Handicap winner Garswood still available as odds as long as 25/1, but there are some shrewd judges who seem to think the latter represents value each way.

The Free Handicap was by far the most straightforward of the trials to assess, by virtue of it being a handicap, and the bunched finish between third and seventh provided a solid basis to form my assessment around. That meant a 2lb rise to 102 for runner-up Emell, which was easily justifiable on the form he�d shown when winning at Salisbury in August, and a base figure of 113 for Garswood who�d given him a 5lb beating off a mark of 106. There�s no doubt that figure underplays Garswood�s superiority though, with him having come there easily and idled markedly in front, and I rated him as winning by an extra length and raised his mark to 115, which may still be on the conservative side.

Garswood�s new rating certainly puts him in the mix for a place in the Guineas but there remains a doubt in my mind whether he�ll truly stay 1m, particularly considering he�ll likely come under pressure a deal further from home against the quality of horses he�ll meet.

On the other side of the coin Olympic Glory promises to relish 1m when he tackles the French 2,000 Guineas having twice won at 7f in testing conditions as a juvenile. Quite what he achieved when successfully reappearing in the Greenham is tricky to gauge, but I�ve got a tentative figure of 112 on his performance.

The sticking point in the Greenham is the runner-up Sir Patrick Moore, who went into winter quarters rated 100 and defied odds of 20/1 as he rather surprisingly split Olympic Glory (117) and Moohaajim (116). It�s possible Sir Patrick Moore was advantaged in racing prominently considering a time comparison with the Fred Darling returned a figure of just 96, whilst Olympic Glory looked rusty and Moohaajim was far from convincing with his finishing effort on his first try at 7f.

Historical standards suggested a figure of around 112 on Olympic Glory and therefore 110 on Sir Patrick Moore and that�s where I�ve pitched it for now, with the intention of revisiting the race after Sir Patrick Moore�s next outing. It�s worth remembering Excelebration rather came from nowhere when chasing Frankel home in this race two years ago and we all know where he ended up!

From the fillies� trials I don�t think it will surprise anyone when I say I was more impressed with Hot Snap than Maureen. Henry Cecil�s half-sister to Midday had won a relatively ordinary maiden at Kempton on her sole juvenile start and improved markedly in spread-eagling her thirteen rivals in the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes, recording a time that compared favourably with the Free Handicap after both fields had gone a similar gallop.

I based the race around the Moyglare winner Sky Lantern (who carried a 3lb penalty for that Group 1 success) in second and arrived at a figure of 113 for Hot Snap, which is the joint highest for a Nell Gwyn winner in the last six years alongside Music Show, and she�s undoubtedly open to a good deal more improvement after just two career starts. Hot Snap�s inexperience was there for all to see at Newmarket, both through the early stages when she had to be niggled to keep touch and late in the day as she strode away, and she might not be professional as some in the QIPCO 1,000 Guineas in a fortnights time, though the step up to 1m promises to suit her well.

Maureen on the other hand is battled-hardened from a four-race two-year-old campaign that yielded a Princess Margaret success and an unlucky Cherry Hinton defeat, and recorded a convincing success in the Dubai Duty Free Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury.

Things were admittedly made easier for Maureen with the Cheveley Park winner Rosdhu Queen rather runner herself out from the front � her Cheveley Park form has taken several knocks and has been dropped 3lb to 107 � and she didn�t have to match her juvenile figure of 106 by my reckoning to see off Agent Allison and Melbourne Memories.

I had Maureen running to a bare figure of 105 but am quite happy to upgrade that to 106 with Richard Hughes having taken a pull approaching the final furlong after she�d moved quickly on to the heels of the leaders. She�d looked all speed to me as a juvenile but I�m having to rethink my stance on her chances of staying 1m now, and her pedigree gives every encouragement. Whether she has the further improvement to win a Guineas remains to be seen, however.

As for Rosdhu Queen, she certainly travelled as though she retains her ability and she may still prove a force in good company this season, possibly at sprint trips.

9th April 2013 - AN AWESOME AINTREE

Tue, 9 Apr 2013 11:13:32 GMT

This year�s Aintree festival will be remembered for the fantastic spectacle and undisputed success of the Grand National and Phil Smith will be dedicating an entire piece to the race in his upcoming Head of Handicapping blog. There was loads more quality sport away from the showpiece over the course of the three days and our NH team are out in force once more to eulogise over their individual high points.

SUPERSTAR SACRE

As was the case with the mighty Frankel last summer, a step up in distance held no terrors for superstar chaser Sprinter Sacre in Aintree�s John Smith�s Melling Chase last week, writes John de Moraville.

Like Frankel, who effortlessly replicated the 140 of his stunning Queen Anne saunter in York�s quarter-mile longer Juddmonte International, Sprinter Sacre never came off the bridle at his first attempt at 2m4f - a gloriously similar story to the eight unextended victories he had notched over chasing�s minimum trip.

Though the winning distance was nowhere near the 19 lengths of last month�s Queen Mother Champion Chase romp - a tour de force that earned him a record rating of 188 - Sprinter Sacre disposed of old rival Cue Card with such total disdain that who is to say he could not have matched that exalted figure.

Cue Card, promoted to a career-best 172, is a top-class performer in his own right, the merit of his nine lengths Ryanair Chase victory at Cheltenham graphically underlined by runner-up First Lieutenant�s success in Aintree�s Betfred Bowl.

While not in the same league (who is?) as his superlative stable companion, Captain Conan notched his third Grade 1 victory of the season in the 2m4f Betfred Manifesto Novices� Chase, boosting his rating to 159.

The hugely likeable six-year-old has now won four of his five chases, the only �blip� occurring in Cheltenham�s Jewson Golden Miller Chase when he ran out of gas on the climb to the line.

Nicky Henderson had been in two minds whether to target Captain Conan at Saturday�s 2m John Smith�s Maghull Chase and, strictly on figures, he would have won it, with victory going to the Irish-trained long-shot Special Tiara (157) from Overturn (155) and Cheltenham�s Grand Annual winner Alderwood (153).

Having run up a high-profile sequence of victories last season, Hunt Ball has found life much more difficult this term. But with the rains finally relenting, the talented eight-year-old bounced off his favoured fast ground to lift Taunton�s richest ever race last Thursday with something to spare, thereby registering a career-best rating of 162.

ZARKANDAR HOLDS OFF SPECIAL ONE

The 2m4f Grade 1 John Smith�s Aintree Hurdle shaped up like a cracking contest pre-race with five of the nine runners lining up with ratings of 164 or above and the highly-progressive novice The New One willing to chance his arm against them, writes Chris Nash.

The race provided a fantastic spectacle on the opening day of the festival with Zarkandar just holding the challenge of The New One by half a length with a further length and a quarter back to Thousand Stars.

It would be fair to say that the race was run at an unspectacular pace which can sometimes muddy the waters when assessing the form. However, on this occasion I have the admirably consistent Thousand Stars to base the race around. He had placed in the previous two renewals of this contest and on both occasions had recorded a figure of 164.

Thousand Stars lined up with a British pre-race rating of 164 and the most sensible reading of this form is to conclude that once again he ran his race. That has Zarkandar running to his pre-race rating of 167 and The New One running a massive figure for a novice of 166.

Zarkandar was wearing blinkers for the first time in his hurdling career and he certainly proved his stamina. Connections did not hesitate to suggest that his future lies over 2�m and beyond so it is probably to his credit that he�s recorded such a level of form over the minimum trip thus far.

The New One had run to 155 when winning the Neptune Investments Hurdle at Cheltenham but given the chance to run against more established performers he showed that he is right up to their class. With improvement more than possible in his second season hurdling combined with the speed he�s shown thus far he must be a solid contender for the showpiece 2m hurdle races next season en route to the Champion Hurdle 2014.

SOLT OF THE EARTH

With Big Buck�s out of the picture, the resurgent Solwhit has taken over the mantle this season and completed the Cheltenham/Aintree double, writes Martin Greenwood.

While the World Hurdle may have partly fallen into his hands due to the steady pace, the John Smith�s Liverpool Hurdle was a much more truly-run affair and Solwhit ran out a very convincing winner.

Top rated on 164 going into the race, he looked to hold an excellent chance of following up given the majority of his rivals were either disappointing types such as Grands Crus or up-and-coming ex-handicappers like Holywell and Medinas, though Smad Place, third in the last two World Hurdles also lined up.

Everything went to plan for Solwhit, who under a typically patient Carberry ride pounced at the last and strolled clear of the much-improved Pertemps winner Holywell (now 159) with Smad Place (still 158) finishing in his favourite position. Solwhit�s bare form was 162 (opposed to 159 that my standards suggested) but I have given him an extra 5lb and his new mark is now 167, which puts him firmly into second place behind Big Buck�s in this season�s staying hurdle ranks. It must be remembered that Big Buck�s stroll at Newbury in December strongly suggested that he had retained all his ability and he remains on 174.

One horse who ran really well in the face of a stiff task in the Liverpool Hurdle was African Gold, who though beaten 13 lengths showed his best form and is now rated 150 (from 145) and is a top novice. He rather surprisingly ducked the issue against his Albert Bartlett conqueror At Fishers Cross in the John Smith�s Sefton Novices� last Friday, though the way At Fishers Cross disposed of his second division opponents in that race suggests that African Gold would have played second fiddle again.

Despite being well clear on the ratings (152), pre-race I was concerned that the quicker ground allied to the sharper track could catch At Fishers Cross out, my thinking that such a thorough stayer who had not always shown a fluency in the jumping stakes may be always chasing the game. However in the event, At Fishers Cross proved all those fears groundless, for he travelled like a dream throughout and probably put in his best round of jumping to score most decisively.

I think the race as a whole is only around the average for this particular event, and the bare performance of At Fishers Cross is only 146. However with extra poundage added for style of victory and an increase to the level of the Albert Bartlett, At Fishers Cross� new rating is 155 with the promise of better still. This will put him quite a way behind The New One, whom my colleague Chris Nash discussed earlier in this week�s blog, though that horse has had the �opportunity� to race against his �elders� whereas At Fishers Cross has remained in the novice ranks. In a season of exceptional novice hurdlers, including at much shorter distances, The New One and At Fishers Cross have both contributed greatly to the party.

UNIQUE ACHIEVEMENT FOR KING

Alan King saddled his fourth winner of the Grade 1 Matalan Anniversary Hurdle since 2007 when L�Unique left a disappointing Kempton run behind her, writes David Dickinson.

The yard�s three previous winners Grumeti, Walkon and Katchit all finished in the first three in the Triumph at the festival but this filly had missed that meeting altogether with Aintree in mind. The first three in the Anniversary had all avoided Cheltenham in fact and those who took in that meeting all arguably ran below their best.

At one point in the season I had L�Unique rated at 142 and, allowing for her gender, the highest rated of the home juveniles. I have promoted her back to that original figure, given that Cockney Sparrow, who she beat comprehensively at Aintree in December, ran to 141 in winning the handicap that followed the Grand National impressively.

I have the runner-up Runswick Royal running to 145, the same rating as Triumph runner-up Far West achieved at Cheltenham. With Irish Saint and Rolling Star one each on level-weight head-to-head meetings, I now have both on 143.

The obvious conclusion to draw at present is that this has been an ordinary crop of juveniles, with the one magnificent exception of Our Conor.

My Tent Or Yours could hardly be faulted on the manner of his return to winning ways on Friday. His jumping may have been less than foot perfect early on but he warmed to the task and looked a real speed horse, so maybe the Cheltenham hill just found him out at this stage in his career in the Supreme. I have rated the race through the third, Zuider Zee, and have My Tent Or Yours running to the 158 figure that he was moved to after Cheltenham.

He is clearly a fantastic prospect looking ahead but to a certain extent the horse remains something of an enigma, his last five runs having seen three very impressive victories and two unexpected defeats.

2nd April 2013 - IF AT FIRST YOU DON'T SUCCEED

Tue, 2 Apr 2013 15:03:11 GMT

Doncaster�s contingency plan to stage the Lincoln meeting a week later proved well worth the effort. Saturday belatedly saw the traditional curtain raiser of the Flat season and rarely can a big handicap have been run that�s left the handicapper feeling quite so satisfied!

This week�s posting covers several highlights from Doncaster�s big day, and there�s also the small matter of the world�s richest race thrown in too.

LEVITATE�S LINCOLN

This time last week I was cursing the loss of the William Hill Lincoln meeting at Doncaster, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Seven days on and I couldn�t be happier that the meeting was postponed after enjoying just about the best finish in the race I have seen since I took responsibility for handicapping it. In fact, it wasn�t a bad week at all to be the 1m handicapper so I had better enjoy the feeling whilst I can as there is a long turf season ahead and it can only go downhill from here!

Not only was it great to see the first four home covered by under a length with a short head and a nose separating the first three, it was also good to see the finish fought out by four old �warriors� who had come into the race with a combined total of 134 previous runs between them. As such they have few secrets from me and whilst some might consider my post-race treatment of them lenient in the light of fighting out the finish of the season�s first major handicap, I am confident I have the level pretty much correct.

The winner Levitate, who was having his first run for John Quinn, scored off marks of 81 and 87 last season and also finished second off 90 at York in July, after which he was raised to 91. After scoring off 90 on Saturday I have raised his mark 3lb to 93 and expect him to remain competitive without having any sort of advantage in future races. Following on from that runner-up Global Village and third-placed Brae Hill are both raised 2lb to 96 and 97 respectively and once again history tells us that both should remain competitive. Fourth-placed Justonefortheroad won off 93 early last year and off 90 at Leicester in October (he struggled off marks in the high 90s mid-season) and a 1lb rise to 95 should again leave him with every chance of adding to his career wins given the right opportunity.

If an exciting finish to the Lincoln wasn�t enough, the icing on my handicapping week was provided by the There�s Only One Brian Winney Handicap at Southwell last Wednesday. Yes, I know, I never expected to be saying that about a handicap at Southwell, with the testing surface tending to string fields out, but everything fell into place in this contest - the finishing distances read short head, short head, neck, head, three quarters of a length. The winner Trois Vallees goes up 2lb from his winning mark of 77, whilst both runner-up Copperwood (69) and third-placed Caledonia Prince (74) are raised 1lb.

As I said, things can only go downhill from here�

JACK�S THE LAD

After Jack Dexter ran out an impressive winner of last year�s Ayr Bronze Cup there was a lot of talk of whether he could emulate Roman Warrior�s achievement in 1975 and become the first Scottish-trained winner of the Gold equivalent, writes Stewart Copeland.

However based on his reappearance success in the 6f listed William Hill � New iPad App Cammidge Trophy, loftier prizes up the sprint ladder may be on the agenda instead.

A smaller field than usual lined up for the Cammidge, but it still contained a group of horses proven at this level who�d provide strong opposition to Jack Dexter in his attempt to land his first listed prize.

He answered the challenge in impressive fashion, travelling well just off the pace before asserting around a furlong out and kept up to his work to prevail by half a length from last year�s Ayr Gold Cup winner, Captain Ramius. In third a further length behind was Our Jonathan, victorious in the 2011 version of the Ayr showpiece.

With the second and third both proven under the conditions there�s every reason to view Jack Dexter�s win in a positive light, which means an improvement in his rating from 102 to 109. That has Captain Ramius running to 107, a similar level to his performance in the Ayr Gold Cup, and Our Jonathan reproducing his pre-race rating of 105.

Jack Dexter�s 109 is the highest rating I�ve allocated to the winner of the Cammidge since Les Arcs in 2006, and he went on to complete a Group 1 double in the Golden Jubilee and July Cup. No doubt the connections of Jack Dexter will be dreaming he can follow a similar path.

KING OF THE WORLD

The winner of the $10 million Dubai World Cup is on his way to Lambourn, writes Matthew Tester.

The current plan for Animal Kingdom is to lodge with David Lanigan in preparation for a run at Royal Ascot.

Animal Kingdom swung clear off the bend and won comfortably. The international Handicappers have a spread of opinions on the rating for the winner � between 124 and 126. But they are all agreed that Red Cadeaux, an amazing globetrotting ambassador for owner Ronnie Arculi and trainer Ed Dunlop, has put up a career-best performance.

We last saw Red Cadeaux winning the Hong Kong Vase in December by a short head and half a length from Jaguar Mail and Meandre. This time Meandre was seven lengths away as Red Cadeaux was the only one closing down the winner in the final furlong. I have not had the chance to discuss the matter with the Handicapper from Dubai, but Red Cadeaux will go up in the UK from 116 to 121. He has come a long way since winning his first handicap off 72 at Wolverhampton, when he rewarded his supporters at odds as big as 9/2!

It was a lucrative race for British-based trainers. As well as Ed Dunlop training the second, Marco Botti had Planteur in third, Andrew Balding had Side Glance in fourth and Saeed bin Suroor had African Story in fifth. None of them won, yet they still earned an aggregate of well over two million pounds for their various connections. How brilliant to have British horses so prominently in the global shop window and how lovely to look forward to seeing the winner here too.

WHAT HE�S WORTH

A fortnight ago in my post-Gold Cup blog I said that only Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander had put up better figures in the last fifteen years than Bobs Worth, writes Phil Smith.

Of course I was inadvertently omitting Long Run who ran to 182 in 2011.

26th March 2013 - BACK ON THE GRASS

Tue, 26 Mar 2013 12:10:45 GMT

With Britain having felt the wrath of the weather gods in the last week, the best of the action both on the Flat and over Jumps unfortunately fell by the wayside. The Flat Turf season did at least get out of the starting blocks at Doncaster on Friday before the snow arrived - and that�s the focus of a shortened update this week.

PUPIL PASSES THE TEST

I had the pleasure of assessing no fewer than six of the eight races at Doncaster�s opening Flat meeting on Friday, but with the deep ground and fierce wind it was a day where a lot of the mathematical workings have to be taken with a pinch of salt, writes Graeme Smith.

The highest rated horse to feature was last year�s Chester Vase runner-up Model Pupil, and he duly landed the odds in the 1m4f Doncaster Shield by eight lengths from the outsider of the five-strong field The Bull Hayes. Model Pupil�s form from last year has stood up sufficiently well for me to leave his 107 rating unchanged but I have him running to just 99 on the day.

My assessment of the race revolves around where I want The Bull Hayes� rating to lie. He came to Doncaster rated 84, but had been on 90 in Ireland following his most recent Flat start in 2011 and was as high as 105 two years prior to that. I considered it probably wasn�t fair to raise him to 90+ with his recent Jumps form suggests he is in decline so pitched him in on 87 for the time being with the hope of getting a better guide next time he runs. The other three in the race were of little use in determining the level, with Art Scholar and Cracking Lass clearly not on form and Masterful Act unproven on turf.

It�s fair to say Model Pupil�s future probably lies over further as he needed pressure for a good two furlongs before mastering The Bull Hayes, and his pedigree also backs up that impression. He�s had only five starts in his career so far and further improvement could well be forthcoming.

Most horses still looked decidedly wintry throughout the day at Doncaster but that certainly couldn�t be said of Mister Impatience, who took the 1m2f three-year-old handicap by a wide margin with his head in his chest, and in a good time when allowances are made for the strong tailwind in the straight.

In less harsh conditions Mister Impatience would have come in for a bigger rise, but the son of Peter Harris�s smart Cambridgeshire winner Katy Nowaitee goes up 11lb to 93 for this nine-length defeat of Allnecessaryforce. Mark Johnston invariably unveils a strong team of middle-distance three-year-olds and the battalion is evidently ready to roll early this year.

The first division of the 7f handicap saw Gouray Girl return to form after losing her way towards the end of last season. She earned a 9lb rise to 86 with her five-length defeat of Fieldgunner Kirkup, a mark from which she proved competitive last summer.

The final noteworthy performances from Town Moor came in the 7f maiden for three-year-olds. The race went to the Mick Easterby-trained Aetna, who belied her inexperience to account for Khelman by a neck with a bit up her sleeve. The second and fourth (Yul Finegold) had form in the book from last year to pin the race around and Aetna earned herself a rating of 77, which comprised of a bare figure of 75 plus 2lb for ease. It remains to be seen how much she learned from a race where she was treated with kid gloves however.

A length and a quarter behind Aetna in third was the John Gosden-trained newcomer Munhamer, who for my money made an equally encouraging start. I have him running to a figure of 77 on the day and both his pedigree and performance suggest longer trips will bring plenty of improvement from him.

HANNON FIRES AN EARLY WARNING

If someone had told me I would be spending Lincoln day digging my car out of a four foot deep snowdrift rather than taking a trip to Town Moor I think I�d have called them crazy, writes Stewart Copeland.

However my weather troubles aside, I had at least one turf race to get my teeth into on the opening day of the season, which was the 6f handicap for three-year-olds.

Richard Hannon looks to have his team fit and firing already, and it was his colt Annunciation who carried top weight to victory, making all under a positive ride from last year�s champion jockey, Richard Hughes.

Annunciation showed useful sprint form as a juvenile and had run creditably in a listed race at Chantilly the previous week. He showed the benefit of that outing and stepped up further still on that effort, showing himself as good as ever. Successful off a handicap mark of 94, I have Annunciation running to a rating of 99. On this evidence he�s well worth another chance in listed company.

RUN FOR THE HILLS

The abandonment of Doncaster on Saturday was particularly frustrating from a personal point of view as the Lincoln is my first major handicap of the year and is often a valuable pointer as to how forward certain stables are, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

But, looking on the bright side, the testing conditions at Doncaster might have provided an uncompetitive heat and a result that would have been extremely hard to nail down in terms of levels and figures. Fingers crossed things work out better for the rescheduling this Saturday.

In the absence of the Lincoln and its consolation race (the Spring Mile) my week was once again spent on the all-weather where the best performance I had to deal with was that put up by Bryan Smart�s Dubai Hills when winning the 1m handicap at Southwell�s hastily-arranged Saturday fixture. The seven-year-old is a real track specialist and was notching his sixth victory from seven outings on the course when prevailing by three quarters of a length off 92 � I felt he was in complete charge of the race throughout the last furlong and a half and have raised his all-weather mark to 96 (up 4lb), at the same time taking his turf mark up the same amount to 92. His efforts on turf last year suggest he may struggle off that mark, but I believe his win on Saturday shows him back to his best of early 2011 on the all-weather, after which he finished third in that spring�s Lincoln off 95.

The form of the race on Saturday looks solid with the next three home all having run to their ratings last time � as such I have left David O�Meara�s fourth-placed gelding Frontier Fighter (winner of three off his previous five starts) on his pre-race 84 and raised both runner-up Docofthebay (winner of penultimate start of 83 and fifth in listed company latest) and third-placed Caldercruix (winner off 73 previously) 1lb each to new marks of 88 and 79 respectively.

19th March 2013 - FESTIVAL FEVER

Tue, 19 Mar 2013 11:12:43 GMT

The excitement of Racing�s most magical four days is now behind us and the record books have duly been undated, and here we give our take on the happenings of Cheltenham last week. Needless to say it�s a bumper edition, and there�s also Phil Smith�s Head of Handicapping blog which goes into the staying chase division and Bobs Worth in particular.

FLY REGAINS CROWN BUT TIME ISN�T SUPREME

Hurricane Fly became only the second horse ever to regain Cheltenham�s Stan James Champion Hurdle crown when defeating his 2012 conqueror Rock On Ruby in a pulsating opening day clash, writes David Dickinson.

Much may be made of the fact that his time was quite a bit slower than that set by Champagne Fever when winning the opening William Hill Supreme Novices� Hurdle but that is open to a slightly different interpretation. Clerk of the Course Simon Claisse was of the opinion that the ground would ride slower once opened up and this was probably the case. There was also a very strong tailwind in the home straight and Rock On Ruby really began to force the Champion Hurdle pace from the second hurdle with the pace at its strongest going up the hill in the back straight into the wind. By the second last the pace was beginning to take its toll on all the participants and by my stopwatch Hurricane Fly was over two seconds slower from the last than the aforementioned Champagne Fever. Little wonder Hurricane Fly looked to be labouring at halfway but, in Ruby Walsh�s opinion, ended up getting there too soon.

So to the ratings and the Champion, despite its midrace pace, looks a relatively easy race to assess. I have Hurricane Fly running to 173 and Rock On Ruby to 170, the figures they both gained when previously successful in the race. As for the Supreme, this was the best renewal in a long time. I have used Jezki as my marker and have rated Champagne Fever 158. My Tent Or Yours travelled really well before jumping to the front for a stride or two at the last. He did not find as much as seemed likely so I have removed the 3lb I gave him for ease of victory in the Betfair Hurdle and have also dropped that race a pound, meaning his current rating is 158 also.

Friday�s racing kicked off with the JCB Triumph Hurdle in which Our Conor�s demolition of his rivals bordered on the astonishing, as did his jumping. I have rated the race though the second horse Far West who is rated 145 and so have promoted the winner to 160. Our Conor apart, the impression is that the juveniles are a little weak this year, featuring a considerable number of French-breds who might not quite be at the top of the tree in their native land. The last Triumph winner to get close to that figure was Katchit who was rated 159 for his Triumph success in 2007 and went on to win the Champion as a five-year-old.

One bit of hype I won�t be completely joining in with surrounding this race is the time, however. It didn�t start raining at Cheltenham until half an hour before the Triumph and it only became torrential in the closing stages of the race. With the water table so high, the following County Hurdle was run in very different conditions. Anyone who views both races can verify this from the state of the jockey�s silks.

SACRE�S SAUNTER

He raised the roofs of Cheltenham�s jam-packed grandstands and lifted his mark to the highest ever achieved by a 2m chaser in the history of the Anglo-Irish Classifications, writes John de Moraville.

Until last Wednesday�s bravura performance we had kept a lid on Sprinter Sacre�s rating. Sure, he was stunningly impressive in both the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chases, sauntering to victory with any amount in hand. But, on each occasion, second place was filled by a relatively humble handicapper.

Last week�s Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase was different. Though 4/1-on favourite to extend his unbeaten record to eight, the stunningly handsome seven-year-old was opposed by a former champion in Sizing Europe, who twelve months previously had only been dethroned in controversial circumstances.

Irish star Sizing Europe had won all his four races this season, running to a consistently high level of 171. Yet Sprinter Sacre blew him away by 19 lengths, establishing in the process a new high figure of 188 - and that�s with plus signs attached as, on the run-in, the only muscles Barry Geraghty moved were in his neck (looking round for non-existent danger) and his right arm as he saluted the delirious crowds.

Sprinter Sacre�s new mark eclipses by 2lb the 186 awarded to Master Minded following his unforgettable tour de force in the Champion Chase five years ago and the 180 achieved in 2005 by the great Moscow Flyer. And, hopefully, there will be plenty more excitements to come.

Such is the excellent record and sky-high reputation of Sprinter Sacre�s stablemate Simonsig that victory by less than three lengths in last Tuesday�s Arkle was regarded as somewhat underwhelming.

Figures here, though, do not tell half the story as the grey took an alarmingly fierce hold, his jumping was far from foot-perfect and his subsequent scope was reportedly �not quite right.�

Even so, performing to 162+ - a figure higher than most recent Arkle winners apart from Tidal Bay (166) and Sprinter Sacre (169) - he readily saw off the vastly improved Irish raider Baily Green (158), with hitherto unbeaten Overturn, for whom conditions were deemed too testing, a below-par fourth.

WHIT BYRNES BRIGHT

Solwhit, a somewhat forgotten horse, showed he is no back number by claiming the 2013 Ladbrokes World Hurdle, writes Martin Greenwood.

Almost exclusively campaigned around the minimum trip when a smart hurdler, though he did win the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle in 2009, Solwhit had shown he had retained quite a lot of ability in two graded mid-distance races around the turn of the year following nearly two years on the sidelines. That form however was a long way below what could be expected to feature at Cheltenham and on top of that he had to prove the required stamina.

In the event, this year�s renewal didn�t call for bundles of stamina due to a very steady pace after the field stood still when the tapes rose. The speedier types were thus handed the advantage and both Solwhit and runner-up Celestial Halo (held when hitting the last) ran more or less to their peak. My five-year median and average standards suggest 166 for the winner but with Smad Place replicating his effort in the 2012 version I have Solwhit performing to 164, 10lb below Big Buck�s rating.

Oscar Whisky was very disappointing in the race for the second successive year, while his recent conqueror Reve de Sivola fared better by pugging on for fourth having been outpaced and none too fluent when it mattered. Given Reve de Sivola�s boundless stamina, it was surprising that he was ridden in such a conservative manner.

One horse who could challenge for the 2014 World Hurdle is At Fishers Cross, though I imagine a chasing career may beckon. This horse has done nothing but progress throughout the season, and he didn�t have to replicate his 152 rating (7lb and more clear of the field) to win the Albert Bartlett. He ran out a cosy winner from another pair of recent improvers in African Gold and Irish challenger Inish Island. Again steadily run, this time on rain affected ground, At Fishers Cross travelled as well as any with the exception of African Gold (who didn�t stay on as strongly up the hill) and pulled nearly five lengths clear at the line. Standards suggest a rating of in the low 150s and I have left At Fishers Cross on his pre-race rating, while African Gold is now 145 and could be one for Aintree.

At Fishers Cross narrowly beat The New One over 2m5f at Cheltenham�s January meeting, and I was very positive about their Festival chances in my blog at the time. Thankfully for me, The New One also obliged in the Neptune Novices� on Wednesday. I was slightly critical of the jockey last time in that he rode a speed horse very positively against a stayer, but Sam Twiston-Davies obviously learnt from that and bided his time for longer this time in another steadily run affair, which rather played into The New One�s hands. Leading at the last he showed no signs of stopping and readily scooted up the hill.

The standards for this race over the last five years where pointing me to 147 for the winner, but I have taken a higher view this time and have increased The New One�s rating from 152 to 155 which makes him the leading staying novice of the season, though that�s not to say that At Fishers Cross hasn�t got further improvement in him. There is talk of The New One being aimed for the Champion Hurdle next year and his speed suggests that isn�t necessarily tilting at windmills. The Neptune has been a good source of horses who have run well at the shorter trip in recent years.

Pont Alexandre looked at least as promising as The New One pre-Neptune but could only finish third, one place behind fellow Irish Challenger Rule The World (now 150). It would be unwise to write off Pont Alexandre - I was left with the impression that he will prove suited by a stiffer test at this sort of trip and will stay further. In my opinion he�ll likely win a top race over hurdles before developing into a smart staying chaser.

Finally I must mention the two handicaps I dealt with. Both Medinas (up 6lb to 154 in the Coral Cup) and Holywell (up 12lb to 152 in the Pertemps, having tanked throughout and looked much better than his winning margin) were extremely good examples of horses who have risen considerably in the handicap without winning. One of the most repeated complaints from connections is that horses go up too much without winning. Our logical point is, of course, that horses still improve without passing the post first. Medinas went up a total of 15lb for being second on two occasions before going on to win off 140 (Welsh Champion Hurdle) and then 148, while Holywell, who finished second on four successive occasions prior to the Pertemps, rose from 119 to 140. Hopefully these examples will go some way to alleviating the concerns of owners and trainers with horses with similar profiles!

RIGHT ON CUE

The Grade 1 Ryanair Festival Chase run at Cheltenham on Thursday was an interesting race to handicap as there were a couple of different options I could have taken and fairly compelling reasons for both, writes Mark Olley.

The first was to base the race around For Non Stop (160) in third. This would mean First Lieutenant and Riverside Theatre had both run below their best, something which was going to happen whichever option I took. This option fit in nicely with the race standards which point towards a figure of 160/161 for the third horse, however, the drawback was that it produced a career-best effort for Champion Court back in fifth.

In the end I decided that I couldn�t have Champion Court improving his rating of 155. He had finished second from this mark in a handicap at Ascot back in November and had failed to improve upon it when failing to stay in the King George and then when surprisingly beaten in a three runner graduation chase at Kempton in early February. This meant that I had For Non Stop producing a performance figure of 158, which is second only to his runaway defeat of Wishfull Thinking in the Grade 2 Old Roan Handicap, and I have decided to leave his official rating unchanged on 160 for now.

First Lieutenant looked a big danger throughout the race, but his blunder three out came at a crucial time, and although he battled well to regain second he lacked the pace of Cue Card back over this shorter trip. Mouse Morris� gelding was an excellent third, from a mark of 159, in the Hennessy back in December and I had this performance a shade higher at 161, albeit some way off what he�d achieved when touched off in the Lexus.

All of the above means that I have Cue Card running to 170, calling the fourteen and a half lengths between Champion Court and Cue Card 15lb. This matches Riverside Theatre�s record rating from last year and is 2lb higher than Albertas Run achieved in 2011 and 2010.

Cue Card doesn�t seem to get the credit that his record over fences deserves. If you ignore his defeat over 3m in the King George, when he didn�t stay, he has only been beaten by two horses in his completed runs. He failed by a short-head to concede 7lb to Bobs Worth in a novice chase at Newbury and ran Sprinter Sacre to seven lengths in the 2012 Arkle - both efforts which are looking more exceptional by the day!

Of the other races that I assessed at Cheltenham the one that stands out is the Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase and the reason for that is Ballynagour.

I had the dubious honour of assessing the Warwick handicap last month which Ballynagour turned into a procession and I don�t think any horse I have handicapped to date has grabbed as many column inches or caused as much of a reaction as he did. I raised his rating 21lb for that Warwick win (he raced from 1lb out of the handicap at Warwick so was effectively 20lb higher at Cheltenham) and pretty much everything I subsequently read suggested he was a handicap �good thing� at Cheltenham. I also fielded telephone calls from owners of defeated Warwick horses and members of the public, the polite ones suggesting that 20lb was not nearly enough.

So, as you may imagine, I was feeling a little nervous come Thursday afternoon and my nerves were not especially settled when one of my colleagues reminded me that the third horse from the Warwick race, Golden Chieftain, had run away with the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase on Tuesday.

The rest is history, but I suspect I may have had a lucky escape as the way Ballynagour went from travelling strongly to being beaten in a couple of strides makes me think that problems he had in France may have resurfaced.

12th March 2013 - ONE FOR THE LITTLE MAN

Tue, 12 Mar 2013 10:10:35 GMT

We keep hearing how the Nicholls and Henderson stables are winning all the big races but Saturday�s Imperial Cup proved quite the opposite with the small Laura Mongan-operation gaining by far its biggest success, with a little-known jockey in the saddle too. Needless to say, that�s our lead piece this week, and it�s complemented by a small preview of the Champion Bumper and a roundup of the best action from a good Saturday card on Wolverhampton�s polytrack.

IMPERIAL SUCCESS FOR UP AND COMING PAIR

First Avenue�s victory in Saturday�s Paddy Power Imperial Cup was the most important one yet in the careers of trainer Laura Mongan and 10lb-claiming jockey Nathan Adams, who looked ecstatic as the pair crossed the line, writes David Dickinson.

The jockey, son of former Flat pilot Nicky Adams, no doubt felt justice was being done as he had delivered First Avenue with what looked a winning run at the course in November only for the pairing to come down at the last, leaving Adams� collarbone broken in five places. This time, however, he was able to sit off the very strong pace in the conditions, and both he and runner-up Tanerko Emery still had a dozen horses in front of them turning for home.

Once the clear leader Kazlian had made a complete hash of the second last the winner and the top weight always looked likely to fight out the finish, with Adams big claim proving decisive in such testing conditions as the pilot rode his fourth winner.

First Avenue was another to show that running against much higher rated horses in a conditions race doesn�t end your chances of winning a handicap in the same season. At Kempton in October he took on a trio of much higher rated rivals in receipt of just 8lb and finished within six lengths of Get Me Out Of Here (rated 158)and Brampour (then rated 161), with Australia Day (145) behind him. The outcome rating wise is that his mark rose from 123 to 128, and it went up 4lb more to 132 for that last flight tumble. Back to 130 on Saturday following defeat when slightly hampered in the Ladbroke, those earlier rises proved no barrier to victory.

Saturday�s race is no easy one to rate, the ground was desperately tacky and many horses, probably including hot favourite Mr Mole, failed to act on it. The nearest thing there is to a benchmark in the race is the fourth Barizan but he made two serious jumping errors and cannot have run quite to his mark. I have returned Kazlian to the 136 figure that he ran in the Fred Winter last March, Tanerko Emery goes up 6lb to 147 and First Avenue is up 10lb to 140. All of a sudden, that Kempton form doesn�t look quite so flattering.

Imperial Cup day has traditionally had six races but a seventh was added to the front of the card for the first time on Saturday in the shape of a 0-125 handicap hurdle restricted to juveniles. What a good idea, sadly not mine but the BHA�s Richard Russell�s according to Sandown Clerk of the Course Andrew Cooper. Juvenile handicaps prior to Cheltenham�s Fred Winter have tended to struggle but this one should work - eleven were declared overnight, although four declined the worsening ground conditions by post time.

The lowest weighted horse to run in last year�s Cheltenham race was rated 125 and Saturday�s winner Calculated Risk could well sneak in the bottom with the penalty he picks up should connections decide he can go again quickly.

A BUMPER SET OF FIGURES

Anyone buying a racecard at Cheltenham will notice that there are ratings next to each horse in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, writes Mark Olley.

The BHA does not publish official handicap ratings for horses in National Hunt Flat Races, however we do put performance figures to every horse in each race and these are the figures shown in the racecard.

We keep these figures so that we have an idea of each horse�s ability when it comes to the bumpers at Cheltenham and Aintree and we have to decide which horses get in those races in the event that they are over-subscribed.

For anyone interested, and who does not have access to the Cheltenham racecard, the figures are listed below and you can see our idea of which horses have achieved the most on the racecourse so far.

131 Golantilla; 130 Regal Encore; 129 Vieux Lion Rouge and Union Dues; 128 Empiracle and Milo Man; 126 The Liquidator and Sizing Tennessee; 123 Blackmail; 122 I�m Fraam Govan; 120 Doctor Harper and Sgt Reckless; 119 Vinstar and Le Vent D�Antan; 118 Posiden Sea, Hellorboston, Fascino Rustico, Caledonia and Briar Hill; 117 Johnny Og, Our Pollyanna, Pure Science, Monkey Kingdom and Drumlee

116 Gallant Tipp and Kayf Moss; 115 Purple Bay and Centasia; 114 Mister Nibbles; 112 Shield and The Clock Leary; 110 Be Bop Boru; 108 Unowhatimeanharry; 107 Yes Sir Brian; 95 Lady Lectra

The second group are the horses that are involved in the elimination sequence and need others to drop out at the overnight entry stage in order to get a run. For example Shield, trained by Aidan O�Brien, needs six horses to come out to get a run.

SOLAR POWER

Saturday�s EBF Williamhill.com Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton came up well short of the race�s historical standards, but that doesn�t mean the winner Solar Deity won�t make his presence felt in other good races in the coming weeks, writes Graeme Smith.

Marco Botti�s four-year-old came into the 7f contest having won handicaps on three of his last four starts and ran the 105-rated Kenny Powers down in the final strides to make his transition to listed company a successful one. The sticking point as far as the level of the race goes is the proximity of several rivals rated in the 80s, including Verse of Love who was beaten a little over two lengths into third.

I acknowledge that Verse of Love might well be flattered by his proximity having raced up with the steady gallop along with Kenny Powers but felt I couldn�t justify a new mark of any more than 90 for him. That figure ties in neatly with the pre-race marks of Docofthebay and Light From Mars, who finished fifth and sixth, and brought about performance ratings of 95+ for Solar Deity and 94 Kenny Powers.

Kenny Powers had run to 105 when finishing in the frame in Dubai twice in recent weeks, but the pace of this race simply wasn�t conducive to him running to that sort of figure, whilst his running straight �off the plane� perhaps also explains the below-par showing.

Solar Deity�s base performance of 95 tallies with his pre-race mark, and I factored in an extra 1lb for his short-head defeat of Kenny Powers after he�d given that one a start in a race where it paid to be handy. The 5lb penalty Solar Deity picks up for the Lincoln means he�ll look poorly in on official figures, but it would be no surprise were he to fare better than that would suggest � he�s been on an upward curve throughout the winter and the return to 1m promises to suit him well.

The following race on the Wolverhampton card was the William Hill Lincoln Trial where Strictly Silver also earned himself a 5lb penalty for Doncaster with a half-length defeat of Guest of Honour. Dominic Gardiner-Hill dealt with this race and the fallout of his assessment is that a 6lb rise for Strictly Silver means he�ll be 1lb well in if lining up at Doncaster. Guest of Honour is unlikely to make the cut for the Lincoln having been rated only 85 when the weights were published, but his mark has increased twice since then and this latest 5lb rise to 96 means he�ll be 11lb well in if taking his chance in the consolation race.