British Horseracing Authority Handicappers Blog

22nd May: FRANKEL - SIMPLY OUTSTANDING

Tue, 22 May 2012 16:24:40 GMT

It�s quite a responsibility assessing a performance that might be the best seen on a racetrack anywhere in the world for 25 years confesses Dominic Gardiner-Hill. The internationalisation of racing has led to all the major racing nations (bar South America for the moment) being represented on the World Rankings Committee, so you have to be pretty damn sure you have seen something very special before making such a bold decision.

After hours of thought and several viewings of Saturday�s JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury I�m as confident as I can be that Frankel fully deserves his new mark of 138 � a rating that places him above such modern greats as Peintre Celebre and Generous (137 in 1991 and 1997 respectively), Sea The Stars (136 in 2009) and a heap of horses on 135, including Harbinger (2010), Montjeu and Daylami (both 1999).

In fact, since 1985, only Dancing Brave�s 141 in the Arc of 1986 betters his figure and it has been openly stated that the level of the World Thoroughbred Rankings (or International Classifications as they were previously known) have dropped a few pounds since those days.

My rationale is clear. Last year Frankel beat Excelebration three times, twice by four lengths (in the Greenham and in the QEII) and yet on Saturday he had extended that superiority to five lengths. In last year�s 2000 Guineas Frankel beat Dubawi Gold by six lengths and in the QEII Richard Hannon�s colt was a respectful 7.75 lengths behind in fourth � on Saturday he was beaten a total of nine lengths into third.

A beating of either of those on their own could have left the Lockinge form open to question, but the fact is that there was 3.75 lengths between Excelebration and Dubawi Gold at Ascot and four lengths between them at Newbury � suggesting they had replicated their form to the pound. Both were race fit and yet Frankel extended his advantage over them � to my mind that suggests this was his best ever performance and that has to be reflected in his rating. Hence 138!

The World Rankings Committee has been criticised in the past for possibly overreacting to "one off" performances. There is no danger of that in the case of Frankel � his career record is now ten from ten, he has posted four 130+ performances to date (with the promise of more to come) and has won his Group 1 races by 6 lengths, .75 lengths, 5 lengths, 4 lengths and now 5 lengths.

The truth is that we don�t really know how good this fellow is (and the same goes for Australian superstar Black Caviar) and it may well be that only the lack of world class opposition will stop him from breaking the 140 barrier � as such I feel we should take advantage of a fully justifiable form line that allows us to give him as much credit as possible.

One last aspect of Saturday�s race that I feel is worth a mention. The plaudits rightly went the way of Messers Cecil and Queally, but spare a thought and applaud the part Ian Mongan played aboard pacemaker Bullet Train. Little went right last season in his efforts to help his illustrious stable companion, but he got it spot on at Newbury and Frankel got the lead he was seeking for much of last season � I believe this was a vital factor in Frankel putting up the performance he did. Conversely, quite what part Coolmore�s pacemaker Windsor Palace was supposed to play in the contest I�m still trying to work out.

THE GRAND OLD DUKE OF YORK
Last week�s Group 2 six-furlong Duke of York Stakes on the Knavesmire was billed as the battle of North Yorkshire, with the front two in the market, Hoof It and Mayson, expected to battle out the finish enthuses Stewart Copeland.

However, it was their unconsidered fellow �Tyke� Tiddliwinks, trained by Kevin Ryan, who triumphed for the White Rose County instead. Third in last year�s renewal when running to a mark of 108, he showed himself to be better than ever with a head defeat of The Cheka, with a somewhat unlucky-in-running Society Rock a neck further back in third.

In recent times the average winning rating for the Duke Of York has been around 112, and I had to consider whether Tiddliwinks was at least worthy of such a rating. On balance I feel he is for now, which means I took the view also that The Cheka had put up a marginally best career effort. Unexposed at sprint trips, he seems to have relished the drop back to six furlongs this season, and he�s been credited with a mark of 111.

As for Society Rock, he ran a highly creditable first race of the year, recording a mark of 110. I�m happy to leave him at 117, and he�ll head for his favourite stomping ground of Ascot in an attempt to repeat his Golden Jubilee success at the Royal meeting. However, looking ahead to that race, on this evidence they�ll all be fighting for second place if a peak form Black Caviar turns up. The brilliant mare is currently rated 132, which puts into stark perspective the gulf between her and the pick of the home contingent.

Going back to the two favourites, a line can be put through Mayson�s disappointing run, having got upset at the stalls; he was reported to be never travelling. He remains on 110, and having been such a progressive sort this year, hopefully he�ll put this quickly behind him. Hoof It also remains on his current rating of 118, though he only ran to 101 in finishing fifth. It was a somewhat sluggish start to his season, from some way out he was clearly struggling to go the pace and never looking like landing a blow. He was subsequently reported to be coughing though, and it�s far too soon to be writing him off.

YORKSHIRE CUP A GIFT FOR CADEAUX
Red Cadeaux gained reward for many excellent placed efforts when winning the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup states Stephen Hindle. It was his first win for almost a year but he�d run some cracking races in between, notably when touched off in the Melbourne Cup in November.

Ed Dunlop�s six-year-old is tremendously consistent, to the point where I have him running to within a couple of pounds of his rating on his last five starts, but this was arguably his best effort yet.

I toyed with the idea of leaving him on 115, particularly as the second, Glen�s Diamond, raises questions as to how good the form is having entered the race with a rating of 106.

In the end, however, I felt 116 was a more appropriate mark. It ties in with last year�s renewal, as 116 is the mark Duncan ended up on, while it means Red Cadeaux is now rated 1lb higher than the third, Harris Tweed. Glen�s Diamond goes up to 113.

In raising Red Cadeaux to 116 I felt it pertinent to raise Colour Vision, who defeated Red Cadeaux at Kempton earlier in May, to 117. A typical stepping stone from here would be the Gold Cup at Ascot but, unlike Colour Vision, Red Cadeaux is not entered in that contest. His current entries are in mile and a half races, namely the Coronation Cup at Epsom and Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot.

DON�T WRITE OFF HIGHLY RATED HURDLERS IN HANDICAPS
With the Anglo-Irish Classifications now published the time seems right to mention the admirable but these days not quite top class Celestial Halo comments Dave Dickinson. His mark of 161 makes him the joint ninth best two mile hurdler, a typical twilight horse.

Not quite up to competing with the very top horses, his best days behind him and seemingly only in training just to make up the numbers in the Championship races. And handicaps? Well those were totally out of the question surely, he was just going to be too high to be competitive, wasn�t he?

Prior to the 2011/12 season he had won his only handicap over jumps at Wincanton off a mark of 165 but that came just months after his finest hour, failing in a photo in the 2009 Champion Hurdle. Two years on, he began his campaign in that same Wincanton race off a mark of 160 and won it, albeit Grandouet fell and his two remaining rivals ran from out of the handicap. Two from two in handicaps became three from three on New Year�s Eve when he carried top weight to a thrilling success at Newbury. He finishes the season on just a one pound higher mark than for his two successes.

Of the top ten two mile hurdlers in this year�s Classifications, Paul Nicholls trains four. All of his four won handicaps during the season; of the other six only the Donald McCain trained Overturn managed a victory in one. Now remind me again, why is Mr Nicholls Champion Trainer?

15th May - UNDONE BY SOME MERLIN MAGIC

Tue, 15 May 2012 14:31:02 GMT

My Saturday morning started by researching the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (formerly the Swinton) writes Dave Dickinson. One of our aims is competitive betting in handicaps, so one look at Page 73 of the Racing Post on Saturday and my face must have looked like something purchased from 'Smug Handicappers Are Us'.

In one of the bookmakers adverts for the race there were ten 12/1 co- favourites from the 20 runners and only one horse was quoted at longer than 20/1! "Boss impressed� � Ed.

Now I am sure it was a marketing ploy by the Magic Sign but days like these don�t come by in the handicapping world that often. So, a mental note to self, keep page 73 in good nick and remember to buy a picture frame for the office wall next week.

In the event punters latched on to Tom Segal�s Pricewise selection, Red Merlin, and he won very tidily by a long looking two and a half lengths. I felt the winning margin was worth five pounds and using Petit Robin and Conquisto as my markers, I have raised the winner eight pounds to 143.

Not the closest of finishes sadly, but there were two pieces of good news. Firstly, it was a closer finish than last year�s renewal (then again so was the Grand National, the London Marathon and probably the Paris-Dakar rally). Secondly, I should save a few pounds on that picture frame as I can�t afford one big enough to include a photo of the finish!!!

QUEEN COMES HOME FASTER THAN THE REST
As I watched Homecoming Queen stroll home in last Sunday�s Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket by the longest winning margin in the race since 1859 my immediate reaction was, �what the hell am I going to do with that?� exclaims Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

She was having her 14th career start and was the most experienced and apparently most exposed runner in the contest. She had a pre-race rating of 106 which would have failed to get her into the first three in any of the previous ten renewals of the race and went off a relatively unconsidered 25-1 shot � and yet she bolted in by nine lengths!

The first point to make is that a number of the more fancied fillies blatantly failed to run their race. The O�Brien first string Maybe (ten lengths behind in third) cannot have run to her pre-race mark of 116, whilst other fancied contenders such as Lightening Pearl (111), Moonstone Magic (106), Discourse (109) and Lyric of Light (112) were probably caught out either by the ground or the half hour delay caused by the fatal injury to Gray Pearl � or a combination of both.

The key to the race appears to lie with Lily�s Angel (seventh) and Laugh Out Loud (eighth). I have Richard Fahey�s filly reproducing the 98 she ran when third in the Nell Gwyn, suggesting that the Channon filly has stepped up a couple of pounds from her pre-race 96 in finishing a short head behind. Building up through the field, this means that sixth placed Alla Speranza has run to 99, just 2lb off her pre-race rating of 101 � all neat enough under the circumstances!

Given the ground I have called the nine lengths winning distance 16lbs which results in Homecoming Queen running to a mark of 120 � the best winning performance in the last ten years (bettering Finsceal Beo�s 119 in 2007) and on a par with Cape Verdi�s 120 performance in the 1998 renewal.

It does however mean that in running to 104 and 102, runner-up Starscope and third placed Maybe have posted the lowest rated performances to fill those positions in a very long time � certainly within the previous ten years. Maids Causeway (108 when second in 2005), Vista Bella (107 when third in 2005) and Nasheej (107 when third in 2006) had previously held that �distinction�.

Do I believe Homecoming Queen�s performance? She is certainly a tough filly who has an engine but perhaps it is significant that only she and the runner-up of the first six home had had a previous outing this season, whilst both my benchmarks for the race (Lily�s Angel and Laugh Out Loud) had also enjoyed a pipe opener. Having had a long talk with Turf Club handicapper Garry O�Gorman we agreed we had to give her credit for the performance in the short term and see what the rest of the season brings.

MCCAIN AGAIN
The Chester Cup proved to be a race to remember for Donald McCain, who trained the first two home, though few would argue the real fairy tale would have come about if the pair had finished the other way round. The runner-up Overturn was attempting to follow up his win in the race the previous year off joint top weight and a 7lbs. higher mark explains Stephen Hindle.

After setting a good pace and stringing the field out all over the Roodeye on the final circuit, it looked as if Overturn could well overcome his welter burden, but stable-companion Ile de Re eventually wore him down. Both the winner and second had been running over hurdles, Ile de Re had been beaten off a mark of 124 at Sandown in March, while Overturn of course, had finished second in the Champion Hurdle a few days later, earning the lofty rating of 166.

The task of conceding 13lbs to Ile de Re on the Flat proved too much for Overturn with Ile de Re returning to the sort of form which saw him placed in Listed company in France. As is usually the case with such a prestigious and valuable handicap, I wanted to take a positive view of the form. As the first two pulled five lengths clear of Gulf of Naples, a very progressive 4 year old due to race off a 7lbs higher mark in the future, I could have gone much higher with the front pair.

However I felt the good pace and testing ground were large contributing factors in the field finishing so well strung out, so I didn�t want to go overboard. Ile de Re was running off a mark of 93, and I felt anything less than 101 would be over kind considering the runner-up was running off 106 and the third was due to go up 7lbs.

I raised Overturn by 6lbs to 112, calling the length and three quarters a standard 2lbs. Gulf of Naples didn�t quite run to his new rating of 108 from his win at Ripon, but I felt it was a decent run all the same and left his future mark unchanged.

Due to the soft ground the race was started by flag and what seemed a good draw for the previously progressive Shubaat turned into a poor one when he missed the break, and he was always behind. The early jostling didn�t do fourth-placed Eternal Heart any favours either. He was beaten almost twenty lengths but considering the fact he likes to race up with the pace it was by no means a poor effort.

The Group 3 Ormonde Stakes suffered from a poor turnout and was made less interesting with the withdrawal of last year�s Great Voltigeur winner and Breeders� Cup Turf runner-up Sea Moon.

Only four went to post and one of those was a previously unraced gelding. The two that dominated the betting were last year�s Irish Derby third Memphis Tennessee, and the St Leger runner-up Brown Panther. Unfortunately, Brown Panther disappointed badly, trailing home a well-beaten last, and Memphis Tennessee was left with a fairly simple task, not needing to run to his 117 rating.

Memphis Tennessee doesn�t carry the sort of hype that many trained at Ballydoyle do, but he�s a colt with a lot of ability and is a reliable individual who has earned his mark from good placed runs in last year�s English and Irish Derbys.

8th May 2012 - CAMELOT COMES TO THE TABLE

Tue, 15 May 2012 14:24:52 GMT

The hype and the subsequent performance might not have been of Frankel proportions but Camelot justified his position as joint top two year old of 2011 and pleased every headline writer in the land when landing the Qipco 2000 Guineas in thrilling style at Newmarket on Saturday writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

Sticky ground and the fact that the field split into three groups for most of the race doesn�t really help in terms of feeling 100% confident about the figures I have put on the race but I have gone with 121 for the winner (up 2lbs from his 2 year old mark). This leads to 120 for the runner up French Fifteen (up 5lbs from his pre-race rating) and 116 for the third placed Hermival (also up 5lbs).

This places Camelot at the lower end of recent Guineas winning performances with only Refuse To Bend (116 in 2003), Footstepsinthesand (116 in 2005) and Cockney Rebel (120 in 2007) being rated lower in the last ten years. However George Washington (2006) and Henrythenavigator (2008) are rated on a par and they didn�t do too badly subsequently.

I fully expect Aidan O�Brien�s son of Montjeu to go onwards and upwards from here. He made up a deal of ground from the rear and will almost certainly be seen to better effect over further. He will take a world of beating in the Derby and I suspect this is the first and last time that I, as mile handicapper, will get the chance to assess him.

Second place French Fifteen (120) deserves credit as his figure is the joint best (with New Approach in 2008) performance by a runner up in the race for the last ten years, whilst Hermival�s 116 places him on a par with other third placed colts Redback (2002), Azamour (2004) and Native Khan last year.

With hindsight I suspect I might have overreacted a little to Trumpet Major�s victory in a weak looking Craven and I believe he performed to his Dewhurst level of 114 on Saturday in finishing fourth. It would have been possible to rate the race a couple of pounds higher through his pre race rating of 116 from the Craven but I am mindful of the apparent improvement shown by his stable mate Coup De Ville (fifth and up 9lbs to 114) and Ptolemaic (seventh and up 13lbs to 109) and believe their proximity acts as a limiting factor to the form.

Interestingly both 5th and 7th raced in the group of four on the far rail which also contained Hermival and I have a sneaking suspicion that they had an advantage of sorts so we will see if they can reproduce these figures in future.

Being made to look something of a fool every now and then comes with the territory as an official handicapper and whilst I was enjoying Camelot, Godolphin�s Farhh was inflicting one of those moments on me in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. He raced off a mark of 100 and won by an easy 6 lengths at 5/4 favourite in what was supposed to be one of the most competitive mile handicaps of the season so far.

When these situations occur I always go back through the winner�s previous form to check if there is anything I could or should have done differently. My conscience is clear on this one as I had put him up 10lbs for winning at Newmarket last October by 2.5 lengths and this was just a case of a lightly raced improver who had progressed further through the winter. A rise of 14lbs to 114 will end his days in handicaps and it will be interesting to see how far he can go in Pattern Races.

BEST EVER ON THE ALL WEATHER
The decision to switch Ascot�s abandoned card on Wednesday to Kempton paid dividends with two of the best winning performances ever seen on British all weather tracks.

Roger Varian�s Sri Putra took on some of the best in Europe last year and he enjoyed the drop in class when taking the Listed Paradise Stakes by a nose from Saamidd. In reproducing his 2011 WTRR figure of 115 he put up the joint third best performance ever on the all weather, bettered only by Kirklees (116 in 2009) and Echo Of Light (116 in 2006).

Forty minutes later that had become the joint fourth best ever performance on a British AW track as the ex Mark Johnston stayer Colour Vision came from last to first, when smashing the course record in the Group 3 Blue Square Levy Board Sagaro Stakes explains Stephen Hindle.

Colour Vision had some pretty useful form last season, which culminated in a third behind Fame And Glory in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day at Ascot, however this was a step up on his first start for Saeed Bin Suroor. The ultra consistent Red Cadeaux sets a good standard and despite suspicions that Colour Vision may be flattered slightly due to the fact that he sat well off the very fast pace set by Electrolyser, I felt happiest with a mark of 116 which puts him above his beaten rivals here and on a par with other top stayers such as Opinion Poll who finished upsides him in the Doncaster Cup last year.

The only other rating I changed was Barbican�s who I dropped 1lb back to 109 as he has now run below his best in two starts since winning a Listed event at Kempton in good style back in November. The Ascot Gold Cup could well be on the agenda for Colour Vision and on this evidence he would certainly have place claims at least if he could transfer his polytrack form back to the turf.

Red Cadeaux reportedly has another crack at the Melbourne Cup on his timetable, but in the short term could turn out in the Yorkshire Cup.

TOP WORK BY THE BHA RACING DEPARTMENT
The hard work put in by the BHA Racing Department in rearranging Ascot�s flooded off fixture to Kempton saved what turned out to be an above average renewal of the the Blue Square Ascot Pavilion Stakes says Stewart Copeland.

It looked a strong race beforehand as the average winning rating of the race over the last decade has been 106 and three of the field had already surpassed that level beforehand.
Indeed those three fought out the finish with the admirable Gusto trained by Richard Hannon claiming his third Listed success this year and his fourth in total.

The race itself was a somewhat messy affair as a modest early gallop meant a position close to the pace was probably crucial. Gusto was well positioned throughout and despite being headed a furlong out by Bannock, he dug deep and rallied in fine style, coming home just under a length clear of that rival.
Rated 110 going into the race, Gusto�s defeat of the 109 rated Bannock at level weights is worth 111 thus giving a minor adjustment to his rating as I believe Bannock replicated his fine effort of 109 in the European Free Handicap.

However it is worth highlighting the run of the third, Burwaaz, given that little went right for him on the day. Too keen early off the modest pace, he then suffered trouble in running in the straight, before finishing strongly into third.

It was an even more meritorious performance when you consider that the bit slipped through his mouth which hardly helped his cause.

Burwaaz was rated 109 after some excellent efforts in Pattern Races as a two year old. Although his performance at Kempton was only 104, he looks sure to be capable of 109 or better later in the season. As for Gusto he is reportedly being aimed at the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. As he has already shown winning form at 7 furlongs this season, it seems a logical target to aim him at.

1st May 2012 - SANCTUAIRE FLOATS JOHN�S BOAT

Tue, 1 May 2012 14:49:47 GMT

With its proximity to the Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown festivals, Sandown�s Celebration Chase has tended to suffer from a touch of �After the Lord Mayor�s Show� syndrome. Not this year! Writes John de Moraville.

Saturday�s Grade 2 showdown, inaugurated in 2001 after Cheltenham�s Queen Mother Champion Chase was a victim of the foot-and-mouth crisis, produced a star of its own in Sanctuaire, a six-year-old novice having only his third start over fences.
He was a talented but temperamental 150-rated hurdler whose victories included the Scottish Champion and the Fred Winter.

Sanctuaire, who had pulled hard in the past and given trouble at the start, seemingly relishes his new front-running chase tactics. Unchallenged winner of his two previous outings, he again blasted off in front and, jumping from fence to fence, had his far more experienced rivals on the rack by half-way.

Never in danger of defeat, Sanctuaire hammered Victor Chandler Chase winner Somersby (166) by 17 lengths with Dan Breen (148) finishing a creditable third. While Somersby and the majority of Saturday�s field failed to give their true running, a line through Dan Breen, who had also run to 148 in winning a course and distance novice chase (subsequently disqualified) on similar going last season, gives Sanctuaire a chase rating of 167.

That mark - just 2lb below brilliant Arkle hero Sprinter Sacre - may well flatter him and is sure to provoke a heated debate at next week�s Anglo-Irish Classifications meeting. But one thing is certain, on a front-runner�s track like Sandown, Sanctuaire is an extremely potent force. Unsurprisingly, he is due to return to the Surrey circuit in December for the Tingle Creek.

LASS VEGA
Most of us knew she had it in her, and at last Quevega was given an opportunity to post a 160+ performance, writes Martin Greenwood. There has never been any doubt that Quevega is a mare with tremendous talent, but usually she faces more or less straightforward tasks on the figures, especially in the mares race at Cheltenham, and given she receives the 7lb mares allowance in open company, it has been difficult to justify anything other than marks in the high 150s over the last few years.

In winning her third straight Ladbrokes.Com World Series Hurdle at a very wet Punchestown last week, Quevega finally broke through the 160 barrier with a convincing five and a half-length victory over Cheltenham World Hurdle runner-up and another �uber�mare, Voler La Vedette, with Mourad another four and a half lengths further back in third. Both mares entered the closing stages �tanking� along but Quevega soon put the contest to bed, and recorded her sixth consecutive win in the process. Quevega beat the 160-rated Mourad by just over a length in 2011, but her 2012 ten length beating of the same horse means a career best figure of 163 for the mare.

The obvious question is would Quevega manage to beat Big Buck�s? In my opinion, the match will probably never happen. Ruby Walsh is far too clever to put two of his best mounts in the same race together! With Quevega�s allowance added to her new rating it would be a 174 to 170 clash in favour of Big Buck�s on my ratings. There is no doubt that Quevega is probably capable of better if given the opportunity to prove it, but I still think that comment applies to Big Buck�s as well! It would be a fantastic race to saviour if it ever materialises. And the result? I think Big Buck�s would emerge the winner.

HEAVY GROUND FORM
Life as a Handicapper can be tricky enough as it is but when the weather intervenes in the way that is has over the last week or so then it can become particularly difficult, says Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

I must have had half a dozen people come up to me over the course of Sandown�s two day meeting last Friday and Saturday asking, �How do you guys work things out when the ground is like this?� The answer is to try and be sensible, realise that these races are being run in exceptional conditions where the ability to act in the ground is probably as important (if not more) as handicapping and try not to overreact.

A classic example of this was the Poker at Bet365.Com Handicap at Sandown on Saturday. The race cut up to just four runners with the final distances being � a length, nineteen lengths and thirty five lengths � being beaten so far, the third and the fourth give no guide to the level of the race so I realistically only had the first two to work with.

The runner up Sam Sharp had scored off 82 last May but had struggled subsequently and was racing off 83 on Saturday � although only beaten half a length in a �12,500 handicap I have left him on that mark of 83 and raised the winner Weapon of Choice by just a pound to a new mark of 90. This represents a career high for Stuart Kittow�s gelding and it will be interesting to see if he can reproduce, or better it, back on a faster surface in a more competitive race � only time will tell.

The same can be said for John Berry�s Silken Thoughts who ran away with the Casino at Bet365.Com Flat v Jump Jockeys Handicap off a mark of 77. Progressive towards the back end of last season when winning two of her last three races, the filly was always travelling well in the mud and only needed to be pushed out to land the race by four lengths. Given her profile and the manner of her success I would normally have called her value for a five length victory on better ground and put her up 10lb but on this occasion I have just put her up the eight to 85 and left both the runner up and the third on the same marks they ran off.

My best quality race of the week over a mile took place twenty four hours earlier at the Esher venue when David O�Meara�s mud lover Penitent landed the Group 2 Bet365 Mile. The second bottom rated horse on 108 going into the race he stayed on dourly up the hill to see off Earl of Sefton winner Questioning by a length and three quarters with eight lengths and more back to the other four runners. Again the suspicion is that his victory owed more to his ability to keep galloping in the ground but he is now two from two since joining O�Meara and, until subsequent form proves otherwise, I have to give him credit for the performance. I have left Questioning on his pre-race 114 and moved Penitent to a career high 116 � once again it will be interesting to see if that figure can be reproduced on better ground in the summer.

It is now almost a year since Frankel confirmed himself a superstar with his blistering 2000 Guineas victory � still one of the most visually stunning performances I have ever witnessed and all roads lead to Newmarket on Saturday to see if this year�s crop of three year olds contain any pretenders to his crown.

At this stage the Irish look to hold a strong hand ratings wise with the top three rated horses in the race � Racing Post Trophy winner and joint top rated juvenile of 2011 Camelot (O�Brien) leading the way on 119 by a couple of pounds from stable companion Power and the Jim Bolger trained Dewhurst winner Parish Hall on 117.

Let�s hope the rain goes away and the best horse on the day wins!

ANOTHER BIG WIN FOR AN ELEVEN YEAR OLD.

�You never give the older horses a chance in the big handicaps�, is just another hackneyed old phrase that we hear all the time. After the results of the three big staying handicap chases of the last three Saturdays, perhaps we might hear it a little less in the future, hopes Phil Smith.

At Sandown, Tidal Bay became the third eleven year old to win a big handicap following the successes of Neptune Collonges and Merigo at Aintree and Ayr. Neptune Collonges started the season on 168 and won the John Smith�s Grand National off 157, Merigo began 2011-12 on 141 and won the Coral Scottish Grand National off 134.

Graham Wylie�s veteran began the season on 166 and after finishing second in the Argento Cotswold Chase getting weight from Midnight Chase, my colleague Stephen Hindle dropped him 9lbs. to 157. This was a brave but correct decision. He then finished last of five in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury and I dropped him a further 3lbs. to 154.

Following a respectable run when badly hampered behind Big Buck�s at Liverpool over hurdles, Tidal Bay was set to carry top weight of 11st.12lbs. on Saturday. As a result he has become the highest winning weight carrier in the Bet365 Gold Cup and all of its previous incarnations since The Dikler carried 11st.13lbs to victory in 1974.

So when was the last time three eleven year olds won our three premier end of season staying handicap chases in the same season? The answer is it has never happened! The Bet 365 Gold Cup (Whitbread) was introduced in 1957 so it has not happened in 55 renewals.

Feeling pleased with myself I mentioned it to a caller yesterday. �It�s because you have the young horses too high he responded� You just can�t win as a Handicapper.

These three old timers had dropped a total of 30lbs. in five months but all had run well in their last run before their big win. A �10 treble on them would have netted an intrepid follower of these old guys �28,900!

24th April 2012 - BEST OF BOTH WORLDS

Tue, 24 Apr 2012 17:43:37 GMT

There was something for everyone as far as the racing schedule went last week with the new Flat season really kicking into gear at Newmarket and then Newbury, whilst the NH bandwagon rolled north of the border to Ayr for the Scottish Grand National meeting. Both codes are covered in this week�s edition, though the emphasis is rather on the Classics picture.

ON TRIAL
Craven/Greenham week must be one of the most exciting weeks of the year for Flat-racing fans and the last seven days once again saw the re-emergence of a whole host of potential Classic contenders, writes Graeme Smith.

In the spirit of ladies first the Lanwades Stud Nell Gywn Stakes looks a good place to start the rundown. It�s fair to say none of the market leaders for the QIPCO 1000 Guineas lined up and in the event it saw something of a surprise result as one of only two race-fit fillies belied odds of 20/1 as she edged a finish that saw the first five covered by less than a length. With a finish that tight it was always going to be difficult to justify an exalted view of the form, particularly as the winner Esentepe already had ten runs behind her and came with a handicap mark of only 92.

Historical standards for the first five suggested a figure around 101 for Esentepe, whilst a time comparison with the well-run 6f handicap later in the card came out at 100. The latter figure also tied in relatively closely with the pre-race mark of the third, Lily�s Angel, and was the level I plumped for � making Esentepe the joint-lowest-rated Nell Gwyn winner since the turn of the century alongside 2007 scorer Scarlet Runner.

Post-race there are no fewer than five of the beaten fillies who retain a higher mark than Esentepe and runner-up Nayarra even surpassed her level on the day, running to 102 under a 3lb penalty for her Group 1 success last autumn. I�ve left her rating at the 106 she achieved in Milan, feeling a return to 1m will see her in a better light. The inexperienced Starscope probably caught a few eyes too as she did good late work from well back to snatch fourth (ran to 98), and it may be that she does better again having come on the back of just one previous start.

The Dubai Duty Free Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury was a harder race to rate with all bar two of the field failing by a long way to show their form in the testing conditions. The once-raced maiden-winner Moonstone Magic gave Ralph Beckett his third winner in the race with another dominant display.

Both historical standards (for the first two only given none of the others really mattered this year) and a time comparison with Noble Mission�s 92+ performance in the opening maiden � the best relative time on the card by my reckoning - suggested a figure around 108 for Moonstone Magic but I preferred a level 2lb lower, which meant the runner-up Radio Gaga (pre-race 91) moved level with and not above Excelette, who�d beaten her to the runner-up spot in the listed Bosra Sham Stakes at Newmarket last October. It is of course possible that Radio Gaga improved further than the 98 I have credited her with on this first try beyond 6f and the race may need revisiting, but as things stand Moonstone Magic rates as one of the better Fred Darling winners this century.

The beaten favourite Best Terms still stands head and shoulders above this field in terms of ratings, with her 115-performance when winning the Lowther standing up strongly. As far as the 1000 Guineas goes, it seems Best Terms will return to sprinting and Moonstone Magic is by no means sure to be supplemented, with her trainer concerned it may come too soon after two quick runs. In terms of figures, I had Mashoora running to 108 when winning her trial in France, Homecoming Queen ran to 106 when successful at Leopardstown, and her stablemate Maybe - the current ante-post favourite - is rated 116 from her unbeaten juvenile season.

Rather like in the fillies� division the market leaders for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas also stayed away from last week�s trials and on form so far Camelot still sets the standard at 119.

I dealt with a couple of the colt�s trials and in the first, the Bet At bluesquare.com European Free Handicap, I had Telwaar running no higher than his mark of 100 in swooping from last to first. Both placed horses were wrong at the weights having had their marks reduced since the Free Handicap was published at the end of last year, but runner-up Bannock still came out with the best performance, running to 109.

The Aon Greenham Stakes was probably a stronger trial, even with Top Offer and Tales of Grimm defecting, but Caspar Netscher probably didn�t have to do any more than reproduce the 114-form he�d shown last year to account for the unexposed Boomerang Bob in an unremarkable time. Both �Caspar� and the third-placed Bronterre remain rated 114, whilst Boomerang Bob � who raced only at 5f in a juvenile season that finished in early July � had his increased 7lb to 112.

It could well be that Bronterre puts up a better fight if taking his chance in the Guineas (possibly unsuited by soft ground on Saturday) as his 114-Dewhurst performance was very much endorsed by his stablemate Trumpet Major in the Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes, which Dominic Gardiner-Hill dealt with.

Again, this wasn�t straightforward to assess with the 113-rated runner-up clearly not on his game given both his five-length beating and the proximity of others to him, whilst the third-placed Eastern Sun raced alone down the centre of the track. Dom used the sixth-placed Campanology as a guide to the race (rated 90) as that moved Trumpet Major up the Dewhurst result (he�d finished fifth in the race) - crediting him with some improvement - yet kept him just behind the 117-rated winner Parish Hall, coming out alongside the runner-up Power at 116.

Race standards from the last decade give Trumpet Major a chance of reaching the frame in a Guineas with a rating of 116, but he�ll likely have to better that to win the race.

GO ON MAYSON!
Even though understandably the Classic trials took centre stage at last week�s Craven meeting there was some decent sprint action on show, with the 6f listed Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes being the pick of it, writes Stewart Copeland.

The race itself was a somewhat unsatisfactory affair, with a modest early gallop probably compromising the chance of some of those held up, which included the favourite Genki, making his seasonal reappearance and trying to follow up his success of last year. He failed to land a blow from off the pace, but given the race wasn�t run to suit, too much shouldn�t be read into it in my view and he remains on his rating of 114.

The spoils however went to the four-year-old colt, Mayson, trained by Richard Fahey. Always travelling well up with the pace, Mayson quickened clear in taking style over a furlong out and came home a comfortable three and a half lengths clear from the pacesetting Jimmy Styles.
This represented a marked turnaround in form from their placings in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster last time out, and in my view a career-best performance from Mayson. I�ve credited him with an improved rating of 110, which is roughly on par with the average performance we�d expect for an Abernant winner over the past decade.

Mayson�s next port of call is apparently the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes at the Knavesmire next month, and on this effort he�s well worth his place in that field. That race often produces a winning performance in the mid-teens though, and probably explains why recent winners of the Abernant don�t have a great record in it.

In fact we have to go back to 1995 to find the last horse to complete the Abernant/Duke of York double in the same year. That was no less a horse than the top-class Lake Coniston, who subsequently romped home to an impressive success in the July Cup at Newmarket.

SHINING STAR
The return of Edgardo Sol to hurdles for the Isle of Skye Blended Whisky Scottish Champion Hurdle looked a masterful piece of placing but unfortunately he proved unable to convert his chase improvement back to timber and was just about the first beaten, writes Dave Dickinson.

A strong pace and faster ground than for the main winter handicaps saw returns to form for Local Hero and Clerk�s Choice who ran fine races to fills the places. However, the spoils went to the Alan King-trained Raya Star, already a winner of a slowly-run Ladbroke and third in the Betfair (formerly the Schweppes) at Newbury in February. This truer test held no terrors for him and using the placed horses as benchmarks, he is raised 6lb to a career-high of 149.

Raya Star started his career on the lesser tracks and actually fell on two of his first three hurdle starts, but he now looks a smart prospect for novice chases next season. Note should also be made of the fourth home, Red Merlin, who seemed to travel best but was run out of it on the very long run in, the last having been omitted.

Raya Star is not the first horse to have failed in the County Hurdle following a wide challenge two out and subsequently returned to form - Lifestyle did the same at Aintree on Grand National day.

17th April 2012 - MERSEYSIDE MAGIC

Tue, 17 Apr 2012 16:33:52 GMT

The most closely-fought Grand National finish in memory is discussed fully in Phil Smith�s forthcoming Head of Handicapping blog. However, there were plenty of other top-class races to get the teeth into on the supporting cards too, and all are covered by the remainder of the jumps team here. Furthermore, in the spirit of including something for everyone there�s also a section on a listed contest from the Flat and an explanation of the changes to the rules for nurseries.

OVER THE RAINBOW

Finian�s Rainbow lit up Aintree by completing the coveted Queen Mother Champion Chase- John Smith�s Melling Chase double last achieved in the same season (2005) by the mighty Moscow Flyer, writes John de Moraville.

While yet to hit the magic 180 rating attained by that Irish-trained legend, Michael Buckley�s star, by routing the opposition in Friday�s Grade 1 showpiece, silenced those who questioned the merit of his defeat of Sizing Europe at Cheltenham, where the final fence had to be bypassed.

Extraordinarily for a horse with his list of achievements, Finian�s Rainbow is in danger of being overshadowed by his freakish novice stable-companion Sprinter Sacre (169), but he looked every inch a champion last week in running to a mark of 172+.

It was good to see Wishfull Thinking (164), whose Cheltenham fall led to that Festival controversy, finally recapturing his best form of last spring and finishing an honourable seven-lengths runner-up.

His long-suffering connections had plenty to celebrate on Thursday when another of their potentially top-class chasers, Menorah, belatedly got his act together in the Grade 1 Betfred Manifesto Novices� Chase.

With Sprinter Sacre (169) in a class of his own in the 2m novice division - as he ruthlessly underlined with a bloodless 7-1-on victory in Saturday�s Grade 1 Maghull Chase- Menorah (162) found the slower tempo of this 2m4f (won by Wishfull Thinking a year ago) putting less strain on his hitherto fragile jumping.

Al Ferof, hot favourite for the Manifesto, was a disappointing third but his trainer Paul Nicholls had earlier unleashed one of the most improved novices of the season, Edgardo Sol, to romp away with the Matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap.

Edgardo Sol�s previous visit to Aintree last October had resulted in a controversial victory, by a nose, off 127. Progressive since over hurdles - he was an arguably-unlucky second in Cheltenham�s County Hurdle - he ran off 143 in the Red Rum and, having turned that usually highly competitive event into a procession, has been upped a stone to 157.

Talking of improvers, he is now, coincidentally, on the same mark as the celebrated Hunt Ball though the latter did kick off the campaign on 68!

SIMON SAYS�.

...I am the best novice hurdler of the season! Simonsig further enhanced his burgeoning reputation with a facile win in the John Smith�s Mersey Novices� Hurdle at Aintree last Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.

Long odds-on following his demolition of the 2m5f novice at the Cheltenham Festival, which earned him the top novice rating of 157, Simonsig treated his rivals at Aintree with the same contemptuous ease, strolling clear on the bridle to beat Super Duty (now 142) by fifteen lengths. I have adjusted his rating to 161, which equals the rating achieved by Black Jack Ketchum in 2005/6, and that pair are the two highest-rated staying novice hurdlers since Iris�s Gift in 2002/3. There is almost certainly more to come from Simonsig, and whether he stays hurdling or embarks on a chasing career, many more big-race successes look likely.

The only horse to have defeated Simonsig was the previously-unbeaten Fingal Bay who got the better of him at Sandown in December. Fingal Bay, who missed Cheltenham due to injury, was a hot favourite for in the Sefton Novices� over 3m at Aintree the previous day. However on this occasion the formbook didn�t quite follow the script. Lovcen, seemingly beaten fair and square behind Brindisi Breeze at Cheltenham, continued his improvement and achieved a rating of 150 (the same as Brindisi Breeze) with a one-and-three-quarter-lengths success, proving the stronger stayer of the pair despite the runner-up having looked stamina laden over shorter trips. There is a chance that Fingal Bay�s pre-race rating of 153 (achieved at Sandown) flattered him, and for the time being at least he is rated 148, still his best effort other than at Sandown.

My other 2m4f+ hurdle races from Aintree resulted in d�j� vu results for the Jefferson-trained pair Cape Tribulation (now 158) and Attaglance (now 155), who achieved the rare distinction of winning handicaps at both Festivals and have never been better, while Big Buck�s managed to beat the record for consecutive wins over jumps and won his fourth straight Liverpool Hurdle in facile fashion. He had a straightforward task on paper which was made even easier due to mishaps to his most likely threats.

The other race in my division also had d�j� vu applied, Oscar Whiskey repeating his neck victory over Thousand Stars in the Aintree Hurdle, after neither had convinced over 3m at Cheltenham on their previous starts. The runner-up returned to his very best (164), while the winner (who ran to 165) remains on his pre-race rating of 167, at least until the handicapping teams from the UK and Ireland meet to discuss the end of season ratings in early May. The big disappointment in the race was Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby, preferred in the betting to stable companion and Cheltenham fifth Zarkandar, who ran well below his best in third. Perhaps the longer trip, or making the running, was not ideal for Rock On Ruby, but at least he got round, which is more than you can say for Zarkandar.

EXTINGUISHING THE FLAME

The four weeks between the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals resulted in some very solid novice events on Merseyside with plenty of the Cheltenham rivals crossing swords again, writes Dave Dickinson.

Triumph-winner Countrywide Flame had his colours lowered by the Alan King-trained Grumeti who hadn�t helped his prospects at Prestbury Park with a couple of significant jumping errors. Grumeti took a while to get to Countrywide Flame, who himself had shown more speed than some people might have expected when going to the front on the home turn. This may not have suited him perfectly but given that he increased his superiority from Cheltenham over both Sadler�s Risk and the badly-hampered Dodging Bullets, it is hard to conclude that he has run below that winning form. Consequently I have used him as my benchmark and raised Grumeti 5lb to 153, making him currently the top-rated juvenile.

Friday�s Grade 2 Novice Hurdle suggests the Supreme-second Darlan probably also improved from Cheltenham. Three of those behind him that day, Prospect Wells, Vulcanite and Agent Archie, were further behind him here and his new rating of 151 - arrived at using the 134-rated Vulcanite as a benchmark - puts him on the same mark as his Cheltenham conqueror Cinders and Ashes.

FIGHT OR FLIGHT

A decent-looking renewal of the listed Further Flight Stakes was won by the Clive Cox-trained Electrolyser, who had failed to make much of an impact in a couple of hot races in Dubai but found this more to his liking, dictating as he liked and putting things to bed when quickening 3f out, writes Stephen Hindle.

In 2011, The Betchworth Kid failed to win subsequently after taking Nottingham�s 1m6f contest, but this year�s renewal looks stronger with some proven Group horses in behind the winner.

Electrolyser himself has run well in Group races in the past, having finished second in the 2010 Goodwood Cup, and he appears to have run to his 109 rating considering he finished two lengths to the good over Zuider Zee, who obtained his mark of 105 when winning the November Handicap and confirmed it with a third in listed company in France on his final start in 2011.

Fifth-placed Solar Sky, sixth-placed Eternal Heart and the seventh, Parlour Games, all seem to have run close to form and help give the race a solid enough look. Dandino was a bit below his 112 rating in third and may prove best back at shorter, whilst Blue Bajan also ran below par in fourth but considering neither had run for at least seven months they ran respectably. Nevertheless, I moved them to 110 and 109 respectively.

Time will tell if Electrolyser can better The Betchworth Kid in winning another race this season, but it�s fair to say he�s worthy of his 6lb rise and he should be up to making an impact in a similar or higher grade, particularly when able to dominate.

NURSERY NEWS

How horses qualify for nursery handicaps is something we have tried to make simpler and fairer over the years, writes Matthew Tester.

All sorts of restrictions have been taken away and we have now taken another step along that path, which trainers ought to be aware of.

The key change is help for once-raced winners. As from this year, they may be able to go straight for nurseries which had previously not been open to them.

The rules now state that we can let into nurseries any once-raced winner rated 80 or below and any twice-raced winner rated 85 or below. This is always as long as we feel there is enough evidence on which to make those judgements. As before, only form shown in this country counts for qualification purposes although overseas runs will always be assessed.

We hope that this will help trainers whose horses win on their debut and for whom it has been tough to find a race where the horse can run competitively next time.

Readers can check out new rule 32.2 at http://rules.britishhorseracing.com/Orders-and-rules&staticID=126447&depth=3.

10th April 2012 - THE HUNDRED CLUB

Tue, 10 Apr 2012 16:02:21 GMT

We expect the NH handicappers to be out in force next week following Aintree�s showcase meeting and this week sees a shorter piece concentrating on the Flat. Our 1m handicapper Dominic Gardiner-Hill runs the rule over a good-quality meeting that took place at Kempton on Saturday, whilst 7f assessor Graeme Smith details the sort of considerations that went into rating an above-average maiden winner when having relatively little form to go on.

MILES CLEAR

A relatively quiet week over 1m burst into life at Kempton on Saturday with four interesting races over the distance, producing three performances in excess of 100, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

All-weather regular Nazreef set the ball rolling with a convincing three-length success in the Betfred Goals Galore (London Mile) Handicap off a mark of 96. At the age of five and having his eleventh start on the AW, I didn�t think there was much more to know about Hughie Morrison�s gelding but with the benefit of a first time visor and a canny front running ride from Darryl Holland, he produced a career-best and will be raised 7lb to 103. Unfortunately for him, opportunities on the AW at that level will be few and far between and a return to turf must surely be imminent. He is nowhere near as effective on the grass and I have raised his turf mark just 2lb to 87 � the mark off which he was a very creditable fifth (beaten under two lengths) in the Spring Cup at Newbury last April.

As I say Holland deserves the plaudits for the ride he gave Nazreef and it was a race in which it proved impossible to make any great impact from behind � the first four home filled those same positions throughout and a number of horses deserve another chance off the marks they ran off, so any changes that were made were nothing more than tweaks with the out of form pair of The Tichborne (-2lb to 85) and Final Drive (-3lb to 90) getting the biggest drops.

The best performance of the day belonged to Captivator in taking the listed Betfred Mobile Sports Snowdrop Stakes. Using well-supported runner-up Law of the Range (104) as a guide to the level of the race, I have James Fanshawe�s filly running to a career-high 105; progressive when campaigned over 1m2f last season, the drop in trip seemed to suit and she is raised from her pre-race 94 to 105. It will be interesting to see if this form stands up as the season progresses and whether Captivator can transfer this improvement back on to the turf.

Next up was Mick Channon�s Laugh Out Loud in the Betfred �When Both Teams Score� Stakes. Something of an unknown quantity and rated only 80 after a ten-length course-and-distance maiden victory in February, she came with a wet sail and performed to 96 in winning going away from runner-up Way Too Hot (93). The key to the race appears to be the Hannon-trained third Esentepe who was by far the most exposed of the ten runners (having her tenth career start) and, in my book, is unlikely to have improved on her pre-race mark of 92.

Possibly the most interesting filly from the race is Godolphin�s Tactfully who came from a very unpromising position to finish fourth. I�m sure Mickael Barzalona will have many fine hours during his association with the �boys in blue� but this is unlikely to be numbered amongst them. Raised from 85 to 91 for this effort, she left the impression she should be capable of better, possibly over further.

The third 100+ performance of the meeting was produced by the John Gosden-trained Eastern Sun in the Betfred �Double Delight� Stakes. The key to the race appears to be Leqqaa (95 � third) and Lord of the Shadows (98 � fifth) pretty much running to their marks suggesting that, taking into account the ease and style of win, Eastern Sun has run to 103. He holds an entry in the 2000 Guineas and whilst he will have to improve another stone plus to make any sort of impact there he should pay his way this season, possible over 1m2f rather than this 1m.

Runner-up Miblish went into the race rated 78 and is judged to have improved by 19lb to 97. When making a decision like this the handicapper is always looking for good reasons as to why a horse may have shown such dramatic improvement and the crucial factor here appears to be the wearing of a tongue tie for the first time...and he is trained by Clive Brittain!!

SURPRISE SURPRISE

Post-race comments suggest Born To Surprise�s dominant display in a 7f maiden at Doncaster last Sunday was anything but unexpected, writes Graeme Smith.

Sent off 7/4 favourite on the back of a second placing at Warwick on his sole juvenile outing, the imposing son of Exceed And Excel bounded clear from the penultimate furlong under hands-and-heels riding from Jamie Spencer, opening up a six-length margin prior to being eased down for a five-length success.

It�s hard to be dogmatic about what he achieved with the vast majority of the field lightly raced, but previous form lines suggested I put the runner-up Star Date in on a mark around 78 and the sixth-placed Take Two on around 65. A line through the latter at 65 put Star Date�s performance at 76 � I�m happy to reason he�d have finished 2lb/one length closer had he raced in closer touch given the work he did late � and generated a bare figure of 86 for Born To Surprise. Adding in 2lb for the length he was eased, plus an estimated 4lb for the fact he produced this performance without ever coming under maximum pressure, I arrived at a handicap mark of 92 for Born To Surprise.

A figure above 90 would make finding a handicap very difficult for Born To Surprise�s trainer Michael Bell (most handicaps of that sort of value require a horse to have run three times), but it looks as though his sights are set on the Group 3 Craven Stakes in any case. His dam, Dubai Surprise, won twice in Group 3 company and was runner-up in a Group 1, and it will come as no surprise to me if he increases his rating further still when given the opportunity to run against better horses.

3rd April 2012 - FLAT OUT

Tue, 3 Apr 2012 14:16:29 GMT

Saturday saw a bumper day of action on the Flat, the turf season opening at Doncaster, Kempton staging one of the best polytrack cards of the entire year and Meydan hosting the world�s richest race in the Dubai World Cup. Our team of Flat handicappers cover the highlights.

HILL TOP

I have something of a love/hate relationship with the Lincoln, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill. I look forward to it each year as it marks the start of a new turf season and all that it promises over the coming months and I enjoy the fact that it is contested by a bunch of largely exposed older handicappers, who compete for a nice prize without the nuisance of a rapidly improving three-year-old or two that the big mile handicaps later in the year tend to come with.

On the other hand, the big yards (Gosden, Haggas etc) often prepare a future Group horse for it whilst the time of year means that, with fitness at a premium, the actual race itself sometimes doesn�t provide the competitive and exciting finish that makes the job worthwhile.

This year, however, was a good year! Having finished runner-up in last year�s race off 95 Brae Hill went one better off the same mark on Saturday, beating fast-finishing ex-stable companion Mull of Killough (96) by a short head with the Haggas-trained Fury (98) a length further away in third. The winner was having his thirty-third start and is unlikely to have made vast improvement on anything we have seen from him before � he has never been much better than a 97/98 performer at his very best � but I am happy to call this his best performance yet for the time being and have raised him 4lb to a new mark of 99.

Whilst the runner-up is slightly less exposed he was still having the seventeenth start of his career and had never been better than 96 previously � once again I am happy to believe this is a career-best and have moved him up 3lb, also to 99.

Third-placed Fury is an interesting one as he looked a Group horse in the making early last season after finishing fifth in Frankel�s 2000 Guineas and being touched off for the listed Heron Stakes at Sandown. Immediately after that performance he was rated 106 but the wheels fell off in a big way and he finished last in all three of his subsequent starts, registering performance figures in the low 80s in all three. Subsequently gelded and allowed to compete off 98 on Saturday he showed a return to form and will be raised 1lb to 99 for the handicaps in which his future now seems to lie.

One final pat on the back from the Lincoln goes to fourth-placed Edinburgh Knight who ran a blinder under top weight off a mark of 104. He also goes up 1lb to 105 (which should keep a number of top handicaps open to him) and proves that top weights can be perfectly competitive in these big handicaps.

The William Hill Spring Mile (the Lincoln consolation) also provided a very satisfactory result from a handicapping perspective. Again the top weight Kyllachy Star proved competitive in finishing second off a mark of 90 and will be raised only 1lb to a new mark of 91 for his effort, but he had to give best to 50-1 shot Norse Blues who took the contest off 85. He is another about whom the handicappers know plenty and I have done nothing more than raise him back to his previous career high of 90 (+5lb) for his success.

The most interesting horse from the race, however, was fourth-placed Captain Bertie (84). He is another who was gelded over the winter and came in for significant market support, which he might have justified with more luck in running having met with all sorts of trouble during the race, dropping back to the rear of the field and then finishing like an express train to grab fourth. So the conundrum for me was whether to revise his rating in terms of what he MIGHT have achieved or what he actually achieved?

It is a dangerous game rerating horses on what you think they might have run to with more luck � you have to be very sure of the probable outcome if you are to base a horse�s future rating on it. Yes, Captain Bertie looked extremely unlucky and his supporters probably feel aggrieved but I don�t feel I can say with certainty that he would have won. I have raised his rating by 1lb (to 85), which means he will meet second and third on the same terms in a future handicap and be 4lb better off with the winner � I also have it in mind that he has not won a race since September 2010 and palpably failed to �go on� after a hugely encouraging seasonal reappearance last year when second in the Esher Cup at Sandown in April. We will see!

Over in Dubai the Godolphin Mile was overshadowed in terms of quality by a number of other races on the card but still produced an impressive winner in the shape of African Story. A relatively �moderate� miler when in the care of Andre Fabre in France last year (rated 111 in the European Rankings), his career has taken off since setting foot on Meydan�s tapeta track and, but for a luckless run in the Firebreak in February he would now be four from four on the surface. At the present time I have a figure of 120 on his performance, although one or two of my International colleagues are favouring 119 � obviously all this will shake down as the year progresses and it will be interesting to see the path Godolphin tread with him and whether he can translate his new found improvement back onto turf.

TALE OF TWO CITIES

The Roger Charlton trained six-year-old Cityscape posted a career-best performance in winning the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free Stakes over 9f at Meydan on Saturday, writes Greg Pearson. Going into the race he was rated 121, a figure he had achieved when third in the 2011 Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot behind Canford Cliffs and a narrow second to Dick Turpin in Milan�s Group 1 Premio Vittorio Di Capua Stakes.

Without question it was a strong Group 1 field that he comprehensively outpointed here in a track record time � there was only one runner rated below 116 in third-placed City Style (113), and that gelding came with a progressive profile. Taking a line through Mutahadee reproducing the 116+ figure he achieved when scoring a facile handicap success three starts back would suggest Cityscape ran to 125 in beating that one by a comfortable four and a quarter lengths (which I called 9lb). To put things in perspective against recent winners, 125 is the performance figure I allocated to Gladiatorus when he obliterated the 2009 field at Nad Al Sheba in most impressive fashion � incidentally both he and Cityscape were racing beyond 1m for the first time.

Testament to Cityscape�s toughness and durability, he has been widely travelled and astutely placed by Charlton to win Group races in four different countries (England, Ireland, France and Dubai). Not many horses can attest to that!

Pre-race favourite Ambitious Dragon ran disappointingly but pulled himself into the ground through the early and middle stages, and it�s debateable whether he was entirely comfortable racing in the anti-clockwise direction.

Later on the card was the world�s richest race � the Group 1 Dubai World Cup over 1m2f. This result had a British flavour with the first two, Monterosso and Capponi (both now with Mahmood Al Zarooni), both having represented Mark Johnston earlier in their careers. Unlike last year�s running, which will long be remembered for the farcically slow pace, this year�s edition was a more truly-run contest and saw Monterosso (pre-race 121) produce a career-best performance of 127 in beating the 122-rated Capponi by three lengths.

Capponi had beaten Monterosso when winning the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 three weeks earlier, but it was clear Monterosso had derived significant benefit from that race after a year off.

Unlike many others from my native Australia I have given up making excuses for So You Think! Make no mistake he is a serious racehorse � he�s run to figures of between 118 and 126 on all nine starts for Aidan O�Brien - but superstar is a term I no longer associate with him, acknowledging his three European Group 1 successes. Bring on Royal Ascot � we need the great mare Black Caviar to come and restore some credibility for the Aussies!

CLASSIC ACTION

Among all the top-class action on Dubai World Cup night I had the privilege of applying figures to a couple of races, writes Stephen Hindle.

The Dubai Sheema Classic, a 1m4f Group 1 event worth the best part of �2 million, was a very classy affair, with Champion Stakes winner Cirrus des Aigles holding on by a neck from Breeders� Cup Turf winner St Nicholas Abbey. Whilst St Nicholas Abbey was possibly inconvenienced to a degree by allowing the winner first run in a race run at less than a true gallop, he did have enough time to get past and I set my level around the Aidan O�Brien-trained stalwart, electing to have him running to 124, the same figure as in the Breeders� Cup.

That gave a performance rating of 125 for Cirrus des Aigles, the high-class French gelding still a little below his high watermark of 128 earned at Ascot.

Jakkalberry stayed on well down the outside for Britain, though still finishing three and a half lengths adrift of St Nicholas Abbey, and he looked back to near his best, running to 119. Another O�Brien inmate, Treasure Beach, was half a length further back in fourth and the Irish Derby winner helps give the form a solid look, as does the consistent South African-trained mare Mahbooba in fifth.

It was nice to see the ultra-consistent Opinion Poll return to the winners enclosure following the Dubai Gold Cup as he held on to beat Joshua Tree, like Jakkalberry trained by Marco Botti, by a comfortable three-quarters of a length.

For a stayer, Opinion Poll has an excellent turn of foot and he displayed it two furlongs out to put the race to bed. I often base my races around him and saw this one as no different, another 116 meaning Joshua Tree has repeated a couple of 114 performances we had for him last season. Opinion Poll has now made the frame in his last nineteen races and looks set for another solid campaign in 2012.

THAT�S MY BOY

The new two-year-old season kicked off on Saturday which was great news because I am always excited to see the new crop start, writes Matthew Tester. My Boy Bill won the Brocklesby in tidy style and my impression is that he is a nice prospect. He was ridden with patience and went past them well despite having to be switched to get his run. This race varies considerably in class and time will tell how strong this renewal was.

With Stewart Copeland away on holiday, I have also been helping with some of the sprinters to make up my workload.

The highest rated performance I looked after this week was in Dubai�s Golden Shaheen at Meydan on Saturday. Krypton Factor pulled away from a high-class field and we have him pencilled in at 124. Rocket Man had won the same race last year but was two and a quarter lengths away in second. Third was Luck Or Design who had won the big sprint in Hong Kong on Cathay Pacific day in December.

To put that in perspective, Dream Ahead was a 126-horse last year which tells you how impressive this performance looks.

27th March 2012 - CHANGING EMPHASIS

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 13:03:03 GMT

The National Hunt team still have big meetings at Aintree and Sandown to look forward to but Saturday was a definite sign that spring is here as Flat racing took centre stage for the first time this year. Lingfield�s card saw the first pattern race of the British season in the Winter Derby, whilst a field of potentially smart three-year-olds from the Spring Cup are also discussed within the blog.

GOING LOCO

The 2012 edition of the Group 3 Blue Square Winter Derby Stakes over 1m2f at Lingfield on Saturday went the way of dependable veteran Premio Loco, writes Greg Pearson.

Given a �gun ride� by the underutilised George Baker, the eight-year-old gelding equalled his best all-weather figure of 111, which he�d previously achieved when fourth in the Group 2 Godolphin Mile at Meydan last year.

Premio Loco�s rating will remain at 113; a figure derived from his second in the Group 2 Nayef Joel Stakes over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket three starts back. Comparing his performance with recent winners of the Winter Derby, only the Clive Brittain-trained Hattan ran higher when posting a performance of 113 in 2008. Premio Loco became the first horse to win a Winter Derby carrying a penalty since Caluki won a muddling renewal in 2004, defying a 5lb penalty to that horse�s 3lb extra burden too.

In second was the solid 105-performer Cai Shen who was beaten half a length in receipt of 5lb from the winner and as such ran to his mark using a 1lb differential for the margin. There is little doubt the Richard Hannon-trained colt copped few favours from his wide draw but I don�t necessarily subscribe to the theory that he was an unlucky loser. The third-placed Circumvent had a pre-race rating of 98 but ran to 104. He�s much less exposed on all-weather so I gave him a separate all-weather mark of 104 whilst increasing his turf rating to just 100 � I feel a turf mark in excess of 100 would have been too high given he had ten starts on the surface in 2011 without running above that level.

GUSTO SPRINGS FORWARD

It�s been well publicised that Richard Hannon won the listed bluesquare.com Spring Cup at Lingfield with the subsequent Group 1 performers Paco Boy and Dubawi Gold during their respective three-year-old careers, and comparisons will no doubt be drawn between that pair and his latest winner Gusto, writes Graeme Smith.

Whilst it�s a bold call to suggest Gusto will go on to emulate those horses at the top level I have him recording a stronger performance than they did in the 7f Lingfield contest � Paco Boy ran to 96+ in 2008 and Dubawi Gold 106 last year � with his 110-effort the best in the race�s ten-year history.

Admittedly it wasn�t a truly-run contest and Gusto was probably at an advantage going from the front, but nevertheless both he and third-placed Bannock (pre-race 110, now 108) had won listed races as juveniles and the front three drew four lengths clear of the recent handicap scorer Pale Orchid (rated 91). As such I took the view that it was worth rating the race higher than the 105 figure the historical standards suggested � my 110 on Gusto has Pale Orchid running bang on his pre-race rating.

This level admittedly means an 8lb rise for runner-up Kenny Powers, who�d recently returned from Dubai, though he is still lightly raced and was completely unexposed on all-weather. If anything there�s a case for suggesting better still may come from him � he came from a poorer position than the pair he split and was the only one able to make any inroads into their advantage as he finished strongly.

IMPROVEMENT ON THE CARDS

Tipping is all about the future and handicapping is all about what the horses did in the past. This is why Handicappers do not try to make their living as tipsters, writes Matthew Tester.

However, at January�s press conference for the World Thoroughbred Rankings, the journalists always ask us to give them �dark horses� for the classics. A few newspapers reported my nomination that 40-1 about Most Improved for the 2000 Guineas looked way too generous. Handicappers are not allowed to bet - to do so is a sackable offence. But it is encouraging that Most Improved has recently snuck down to 8-1 third favourite for the race.

Most Improved is trained by Brian Meehan at Manton. I spent four years there learning from Barry Hills when he was the trainer at Manton. Barry has since complained that I had four years helping him to win races followed by a lifetime trying to stop him!

20th March 2012 - THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 11:29:11 GMT

A fantastic week and we have a bulging blog. Phil Smith leads off with his Gold Cup thoughts in the Head of Handicapping Blog and the other five NH Handicappers have turned out to have their say here. There are reflections on the standings of Champions and possible future Champions, whilst deep into the piece Martin Greenwood and Chris Nash fire back at some criticism the team was surprised to receive during the week.

A TRUE CHAMPION?

The Stan James Champion Hurdle may have produced a shock result but it proved a relatively easy race to assess, writes Dave Dickinson.

The admirable Overturn had run to 166 on two of his last three starts and it seems hard to imagine he has run below that rating, given the wonderful ride he got from his pilot, Jason Maguire. Using Overturn as the benchmark, the winner Rock on Ruby is raised 5lb to 170.

So what of Hurricane Fly and Binocular? The going map showed that the good to soft ground in the good (good to soft in places) was all in the back straight on the climb towards the third last. Consequently kicking at the top of the hill was a very good tactic, certainly on the first two days. When Maguire made his move having briefly slowed the pace going up the hill, Noel Fehily on Rock on Ruby was in a position to cover it but the two previous winners were not. Worse still, they were also caught behind horses who were in the same boat. I would take nothing away from the winner but another race between Rock on Ruby, Hurricane Fly and Binocular would be well worth seeing.

Cinders and Ashes proved an up to standard winner of the William Hill Supreme Novices� Hurdle running to a figure of 151, using both second and third as benchmarks.

The JCB Triumph proved an altogether trickier race to reassess. I used Hollow Tree, who was seventh home, as my benchmark to put Countrywide Flame up to 152. The solid pace in this race compared well with the County Hurdle thirty-five minutes later and the diminutive winner never looked likely to play a leading role until the home straight, leaving the strong impression the emphasis was firmly on stamina, something he does not seem to lack. There was a suspicion he may have been flattered by staying towards the middle of the course as only the third home Sailors Warn of the first four in the following County Hurdle began his move towards the stands side in the home straight. However that theory didn�t appear to hold up in the Conditional Jockeys Handicap later on the card.

KING IN WAITING?

Sprinter Sacre(169) lined up for last week�s Racing Post Arkle Trophy as the highest-rated novice chaser this century, and his dazzling performance at Cheltenham underlined why, writes John de Moraville.

The imposing six-year-old was never out of second gear in taking his unbeaten chase record to four with Barry Geraghty employing cruise control throughout.

Cue Card ran a career-best 157 in second - on a par with the three previous Arkle runners-up Finian�s Rainbow, Somersby and Kalahari King - but Sprinter Sacre did not have to better his eye-watering Game Spirit performance to stroll home by seven lengths.

Would Sprinter Sacre have won the Queen Mother Champion Chase? Impossible to say but he is already rated just 4lb below last week�s winner Finian�s Rainbow and has yet to come off the bridle.
With boundless scope for further improvement it�s no wonder he is already a warm order for next year�s 2m showpiece. Look at the difference a year has made to Finian�s Rainbow - 157 after last year�s Arkle and now top of the pile on 173.

While Finian�s Rainbow and defending champion Sizing Europe (171) fought out a thrilling duel, last week�s Queen Mother - with the final fence having to be bypassed - was an unsatisfactory renewal.

Next year that pair will be ten and eleven years of age respectively, too, so it�s perhaps no surprise that the dashing young pretender is hovering around the even-money mark to seize the crown in 2013.

Sprinter Sacre wasn�t the only novice chaser to leave an indelible impression on the heaving Cheltenham masses. The Irish have a budding new star in unbeaten Sir Des Champs (162), immediately ear-marked for next year�s Gold Cup after fluently disposing of gallant Champion Court (155) in the Jewson Golden Miller Novices� Chase.

There was no shortage of candidates for ride of the week - Barry Geraghty (Riverside Theatre) and Tony McCoy (Synchronised) spring readily to mind. But for sheer artistry and audacity, Paul Carberry producing �bridle horse� Bellvano (up 10lb to 148) to snatch the concluding Grand Annual Chase in the final 75 yards took some beating.

RIVER IN FULL FLOW

Thursday�s Grade 1 Ryanair Festival Trophy was the strongest renewal of the race to date, writes Mark Olley.

Pre-race Riverside Theatre, Albertas Run and Rubi Light were all rated 168, while Somersby and Kalahari King were 166.

Albertas Run probably produced the best effort in defeat of this year�s Festival and I see no reason why he didn�t repeat the form he�d shown when winning the last two runnings, so have based the race around him on 168. Medermit was half a length behind and moves up 2lb to a new career-high figure of 167. Alan King�s gelding has run a string of excellent races this winter and if he can just sharpen up his jumping a top prize must surely come his way.

I have allowed 2lb for the half-length winning margin of Riverside Theatre as he didn�t get the clearest of runs, being repeatedly bumped, and this moves Nicky Henderson�s top-class gelding to a new high of 170 � a mark that can also be justified on the two Ascot wins he�d recorded prior to this. This compares very favourably with recent winners of this race - Albertas Run ran to his 168 in both 2011 & 2010, Imperial Commander was 165 in 2009 and Our Vic was 168 in 2008.

There have been many column inches devoted to Hunt Ball and his remarkable climb up the handicap this winter, but his effort is not quite unique as anyone who remembers Venn Ottery can testify. In July 2003 Venn Ottery was rated 64 when trained by Oliver Carter and by March 2004 he had reached the height of 149 when in the care of Paul Nicholls. This is the exact same 85lb rise that Hunt Ball has made this season, but I guess Hunt Ball just shades it as technically he has gone from 68 to 154 (86lbs) as on his first handicap run/win he raced from 1lb out of the weights! Either way they are both remarkable horses.

TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS

�There�s definitely a North-South divide in jumping these days, as you win a little race up there and go up 8lb and come down here and find you�re at least a stone wrong�. You would imagine these were the disillusioned rantings of a Northern trainer after one of his stalwarts was tailed off in one of the big races �down South�, writes Martin Greenwood. However it was the quote supplied to the Racing Post by Malcolm Jefferson after his Cape Tribulation had won the Pertemps Final on the Thursday of the Festival. Jefferson who trains in North Yorkshire couldn�t resist traipsing out the same prosciutto-thin argument that the BHA Handicapping team treat the Northern trainers differently to their Southern counterparts, despite all known evidence and stats strongly suggesting otherwise. It seems even standing next to a Cheltenham winner can�t budge such entrenched views!

Cape Tribulation returned to something like his best (now 150) after winning off 142, and he was the second �Northern� handicap hurdle winner of the Festival following the Donald McCain-trained Son of Flicka�s victory in the Coral Cup the previous day � Attaglance (also trained by Malcolm Jefferson) became the third of the week on the final day and is covered by Chris Nash later in the blog. Son of Flicka, up 7lb to 142, also returned to near his best and made amends for his close second at the 2011 Festival.

The three non-handicaps I looked after at Cheltenham were of course headed by the Ladbrokes World Hurdle, which everyone in racing knows was won for an historic fourth consecutive time by Big Buck�s. An incredible reception greeted the winner post-race, and even an unsentimental cynic like myself was moved by the joyous scenes, which included witnessing a very emotional female RUK stalwart. Anybody who has read this blog over the years will know the undiluted admiration I have given to this horse ever since I awarded him the rating of 174 in March 2009, when I described him as a machine. That rating has never changed since, and remains the highest rating I have given in my time as a handicapper. Superbly ridden a usual by Walsh, who, it seems, is always aware of imminent dangers while riding �Buck�s�, the horse predictably found more for pressure after his closest challenger, the game Voler la Vedette (who put up a personal best of 160, receiving 7lb), appeared to be cruising. Superlatives run dry for such an imperious racehorse like Big Buck�s, and it would take a brave soul to bet against him to make it five in a row.

Obviously it would be no surprise that Big Buck�s was clear in the ratings, and the BHA had another top-rated winner in the 2m5f Neptune novices on Wednesday. Simonsig had created a big impression prior to then, and certainly enhanced his profile even further with a most clear-cut victory by seven lengths from Irish-challenger Felix Younger, having been left clear when Cotton Mill ducked out two out. The five-year standards suggest 153, while the time comparison suggests 161. I have rated the �bare� form of the race around the standards which make both Felix Younger and Cotton Mill (who I have estimated would have finished around the runner-up spot) both 147, with Simonsig up 9lb to a minimum of 157. Simonsig is already a class performer, and he looks certain to play a part in top races next season whatever his chosen targets.

The 3m novice on Friday looked to be between Boston Bob (151), Sea of Thunder (149) and Brindisi Breeze (148) on the ratings, and two of those fought out the finish. Sea of Thunder, who achieved his rating when falling at the last at Cheltenham in December, hasn�t lived up to that form since and was particularly disappointing on his return to Prestbury Park. The other two more or less confirmed their pre-race ratings, Brindisi Breeze again showing strong staying capabilities once hitting the front at the ninth, keeping up the gallop relentlessly to see off Boston Bob by two lengths. The latter was asked to go about his business later than the winner and a mistake at the last put paid to his chance. Brindisi Breeze is now 150 while Boston Bob will be a maximum of that figure should he return to the UK again this season. Grand Vision in third (147 from 136) and Meister Eckhart (141 from 133) in fifth continued on the upgrade, while fourth-placed Lovcen confirmed his pre-race rating of 142.

Finally, returning to my original theme, it should be noted that Brindisi Breeze is trained in Scotland, and Countrywide Flame, winner of the Triumph earlier in the day, is trained in Yorkshire. Add these to the three handicap winners already mentioned and maybe it�s the turn of the Southern trainers to complain about their Northern brethren!

MORE THAN A GLANCE

Further to Martin Greenwood�s piece on the north-south divide, I thought it worth looking at the result of the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys� Handicap Hurdle in depth, writes Chris Nash.

Attaglance prevailed in a tight finish to give Malcolm Jefferson his second handicap success of the week, with a neck and the same back to Toner d�Oudairies and Oscar Nominee and the first eight covered by seven lengths.

Within those eight horses we had runners trained not only in the north and the south but also two trained in Ireland. They were aged from five to eight years and were a mix of experienced handicappers and unexposed novices. Two had won last time out, one had been placed on his most recent start and five hadn�t been especially competitive. As such the race stands up as a fine example of what our team is trying to achieve � a competitive race with an exciting finish regardless of horse profile.

Attaglance had gone up 9lb for winning �a little race in the north� on his previous start. He goes up a further 5lb on the back of this.