Previously:
The Future Of Microsoft Office On Tablets And Online
The Future Of Microsoft Online With Office Web Apps

Microsoft Office Web Apps can be used to view and edit Office files online in a web browser. You can create new Word, Excel and Powerpoint files online in Skydrive; or you can upload files at the Skydrive web site; or you can install the Skydrive app on your computer and put files in the Skydrive folder, then find them online.

There are two advantages to Office Web Apps that set them ahead of Google’s similar web apps for most businesspeople.

• Office Web Apps look very similar to their Office 2010 counterparts. The ribbons are simplified but the interface is immediately familiar to Office users.
• Office Web Apps preserve the formatting of Office documents and save files in native Office formats.

The formatting is crucial. If you upload a file that includes formatting that is not supported by Office Web Apps, you might not be able to see that formatting or edit it online, but it will still be there when you finish editing online and bring the document back to your desktop. Microsoft calls it “round-tripping” and has worked extremely hard to make sure document formatting is 100% preserved when a document passes through Office Web Apps.

Anyone who has used Google Docs with an Office document understands why this is important, because Google Docs will almost certainly mangle Office formatted documents beyond repair. It doesn’t even try. Honestly, it’s like a point of pride among Google aficionados that they scorn Office formatting. It’s an important part of the reason that “Google Cloud Connect for Microsoft Office” never caught on.

So when I show you a couple of examples of shortcomings in the Word Web App, understand that I do it with kindness. Office Web Apps are valuable tools that we all may begin to use regularly. The weaknesses, though, do offer a chance to be snarky and it’s hard to pass up.

When you click on a document in Skydrive, it opens in View mode. It is a static view of the document or spreadsheet or presentation. In my experience, the view is very accurate. All formatting is presented with high fidelity to the original.

There are two editing choices. The first tab lets you edit the file in its native Office program on your computer, if you have Office installed. When you’re done you can save it directly back to Skydrive.

The second tab lets you edit it in your browser – the heart of the “Office Web Apps” experience. The editing tools are limited. Microsoft describes it as “light editing.” There’s a lot you can’t do in the Office Web Apps. When the file opens in the web app, it conceals anything in the document that the web app is not capable of editing.

When I was testing the Skydrive client a couple of weeks ago, I grabbed some files at random to upload. The first one I chose to open was a mockup of a flyer that I had started for Bruceb Cloud Backup.

The view on the left is the way it looks in the “View” pane of Word Web App.

The view on the right is the way it looks in the “Edit In Browser” pane of Word Web App.

Look at the full size versions! It’s entertaining.

Okay, that’s an extreme example. It’s not fair. That’s a highly formatted flyer and the web app is not well suited for working with it. I can accept that.

Visually, though, the next document I opened showed that editing in the web app is much less close to WYSIWYG than I expected. It’s a template I use for recording information about my clients. Again, the left accurately shows the document in View mode and the right shows how it gets simplified for Edit mode.

It’s editable online but a lot of formatting is lost in the editing pane.

It’s important to reiterate that the formatting has not been lost! If I edited the documents online and then returned them to my desk, the original formatting would return in all its glory. It’s only the onscreen display in the editor that is deficient.

At the moment you should focus on the word “light” in “light editing” with Office Web Apps. They may become more full-featured but progress has been slow in the two years since they’ve been introduced. That doesn’t make them a poor choice now as long as you go into them with reasonable expectations.

Previously: The Future Of Microsoft Office On Tablets And Online

OFFICE WEB APPS

Two years ago Microsoft introduced Office Web Apps, online versions of Word, Excel, Powerpoint and OneNote that can be used entirely inside a web browser. If you set up Skydrive on your computer and store files in your Skydrive folder, you can use Office Web Apps to edit the files in a web browser from any computer and find the updated files waiting for you when you next sit at your computer.

Windows 8 devices – computers, tablets, phones – will all feature built-in easy access to your files in Skydrive. If you’re on your own computer, the files might be stored on the local hard drive and you can edit them in the copy of Word installed on the computer. On your Windows 8 tablet, you’ll have access to the synced copies stored online and you can edit them in the lightweight Word app built into the tablet. On a hotel computer, you can edit them in the online Word Web App. That’s immediate and consistent access to your files and Office programs to work with them from any device, anywhere. It’s a powerful vision! If Microsoft carries it off successfully, it could hold off Google’s onslaught and cement Office’s place at the center of the business world for another generation.

First there is some angst to deal with. Remember, almost half of Microsoft’s profits currently come from copies of Office installed on hundreds of millions of computers around the world. The calculations become very complex for Office Web Apps. If the online apps are cheap or free and they’re really good, many people will use the online apps instead of buying licenses for the full version of Office. There are serious long-term financial consequences if a lot of people begin to use full-featured web apps for free.

On the other hand, the future is not very bright if Microsoft’s online apps aren’t very good or if Microsoft tries to lock them up behind too high a paywall. Google makes its money from advertising; its (terrible) web apps will always be available cheaply or for free. To compete, Microsoft has to make Office programs available on all the devices people use – not just smartphones and tablets but also computers that may not have Office installed. And it has to do it at a price that is far below the traditional hundreds of dollars for the desktop Office suite.

Perhaps that’s why the Office Web Apps have been paralyzed since their introduction. The feature set is essentially unchanged since June 2010. There are noticeable weaknesses in the apps. Microsoft’s commitment has been half-hearted. My guess is that battles are raging in the corporate halls of Microsoft among people who simply cannot decide what to do.

Here’s an example of the schizophrenia that grips Microsoft – a comparison of Skydrive users with subscribers to Microsoft’s Office 365 service.

SKYDRIVE  If you install the Skydrive client on your computer, you will have a special folder that is synced with Skydrive online. Log into the Skydrive web site and you can click on any of the Word/Excel/Powerpoint files in your Skydrive folders and view them in your web browser in Office Web Apps.

When you click on the button “Edit In Browser”, the full web app is launched, with a simplified but familiar version of the Office 2010 ribbons.

Skydrive users can edit files online in Office Web Apps for free.

OFFICE 365  Some Office 365 plans include access to a hosted Sharepoint portal which can be used, among other things, for online document libraries. Office documents stored in Sharepoint Online can be opened directly from Office 2010 programs on your computer as well as being accessible online.

Paid subscribers to the less expensive Office 365 Sharepoint plans cannot edit documents online in Office Web Apps. They can view their documents but the “Edit In Browser” button disappears. Take a look at the highlighted footnote in the plan descriptions:

The footnote says: “Please note: with E1 you can only view Word, Excel, Powerpoint, and OneNote files online. With E3 you can both edit and view these files online.”

If you are an Office 365 subscriber and want to order Sharepoint separately instead of getting one of the Enterprise packages, it becomes very clear that Office Web Apps are an extra cost item.

Small businesses already face significant hurdles when they consider adopting Sharepoint. Adding a $6/user monthly charge to be able to edit files online is a significant disincentive that might keep businesses from using Sharepoint at all.

There’s no conclusion here, other than to expect changes in Office Web Apps leading up to the release of Windows 8. With some adjustments to the apps and to the pricing, Microsoft has a way forward to make Office as ubiquitous in the post-PC world as it has been in the PC world.

In the next article I’ll give you a brief example of why I keep referring to “weaknesses” in Office Web Apps.

Microsoft Office has an overwhelming global presence in businesses large and small. Estimates range from “81% of companies” to “holding steady at 94 percent for years”. Google Docs is making inroads but currently controls less than 10% of the market for office applications by any measure (and Google’s momentum has been slowed by publicity over Google Drive privacy issues and the failure of Google+ to make any headway against Facebook).

[An aside for nostalgic lawyers: WordPerfect is currently estimated to have a worldwide market share of 0.35%.]

Almost half of Microsoft’s profits come from Office. Word and Excel are deeply embedded in the business flow for almost every major company; inertia and the need for compatibility will ensure that it continues to be dominant for many years.

The fact remains, though, that Office is a product for desktop computers in a world that no longer relies single-mindedly on desktop computers. Does the move to mobile devices and the cloud pose a threat to Office’s position at the center of our business lives?

Microsoft has two complementary ways to try to keep Office relevant.

When Microsoft shared details last month about the plans for different versions of Windows, there was a checkmark that jumped out.

One version of Windows 8 will be optimized for tablets with ARM (non-Intel) processors. Microsoft has decided to call it “Windows RT” because Microsoft enjoys being mysterious.

Windows 8 tablets apparently will come with preinstalled free versions of Word, Excel, PowerPoint and OneNote.

I haven’t seen any reliable reports on what those apps will look like. If the iPad version of OneNote is any measure, they will be simplified versions of the full programs, optimized for tablet-size displays and designed for fingers instead of a mouse. Windows 8 will be designed for easy access to files stored in Skydrive from either your computer or your tablet, making it possible to use whatever Windows 8 device suits the moment with confidence that you can view and edit your documents or spreadsheets.

There are persistent rumors that the other Office programs will be released for the iPad. I can imagine that Microsoft will sell tablet-sized versions of Office for iPad and Android tablets, and advertise that the same apps are included for free with Windows 8 tablets. Some revenue from iPad users, a selling point for Windows 8 tablets – makes sense, eh?

The decision to include Office on Windows 8 tablets will help make the tablets competitive and perhaps extend Office’s dominance. In the next article I’ll take a quick look at Office Web Apps, the other component in Microsoft’s attempt to stave off Google’s relentless assault.

It was another busy week for updating your computers.

Microsoft released updates for Windows, Office, Silverlight and .NET Framework on its regular monthly schedule.

Adobe was forced to issue an emergency update for Flash after the bad guys began actively exploiting one of the typical oh-my-god-we’re-all-gonna-die vulnerabilities where a malicious file in an email message can be used to crash applications and take control of your computer. The vulnerability affects all versions of Flash – Windows, Mac, Linux and Android – although the active attacks are only directed at Windows computers so far.

If you are a subscriber to Bruceb Remote Management, it is installing the update this week. Your computer might restart in the morning to finish the installation.

If you’ve been keeping up to date, then the update may be installed silently in the background – Adobe introduced an automatic update system for Flash recently.

Otherwise, install the Flash update if you are prompted when you log into your computer.

If you want to be sure, you can use Adobe’s Flash version checker to see what is installed on your computer. The current version is 11.2.202.235.

Be careful out there!

TAKEAWAY

Office 365 delivers all incoming messages to your mailbox. It does not hold messages in a spam quarantine.

[05/09/12 Update below]

DETAILS

Microsoft does thorough spam filtering on incoming mail for Office 365 subscribers – and then uses technology built into Exchange to make the experience with spam completely painless. This is an important advantage for Office 365 subscribers!

Most spam filtering services put messages identified as spam into an online quarantine. A summary is emailed to the user every day or two. The services differentiate themselves by crowing about how many messages are trapped and how few of them are mistakes that weren’t really spam after all. The predecessor to Office 365, Microsoft Online Services BPOS, worked like that.

It’s an administrative nightmare and burdensome for users. Scanning the daily summary and trying to spot a nugget that should have been delivered the day before is an annoying chore. There are a thousand ways for the process to go wrong – the message doesn’t get delivered when the “Release” button is clicked, or the user doesn’t get the daily summary, or the administrator has to go chasing down undelivered messages, trying to figure out why they didn’t arrive.

Office 365 has a different approach.

Incoming messages are delivered to an elaborate infrastructure built up by Microsoft specifically for filtering messages. Microsoft Forefront Online Protection for Exchange uses a dizzying blend of technology to detect viruses and other malicious code in email messages. The global Forefront network is updated every fifteen minutes with antivirus definitions from multiple security companies. Microsoft engineers watch for virus outbreaks and develop additional rules to identify malicious messages every two hours.

If messages contain a virus or malicious code, they are permanently dropped. Period.

Forefront provides service level agreements guaranteeing 100% known virus protection.

Once the dangerous messages are gone, the second pass involves a blend of sophisticated techniques to identify spam. This article describes some of the techniques – IP Reputation, Connection Analysis, Reputation Analysis, IP-Based Authentication, Fingerprinting, Rule Based Scoring, and (my personal favorite) “NDR Backscatter Mitigation.”

Forefront claims to be more than 98% effective at identifying junk and has a false positive rate of less than 1 in 250,000 (0.0004%).

None of the spam messages are quarantined.

Forefront simply adds a code in the header of a spam message and sends it on to the Office 365 Exchange Hub Transport server. (The code is internal, not visible to you.) When the Exchange Server sees that code, it puts the spam message in your Junk Mail folder.

And that’s it! Office 365 subscribers are receiving every message sent to them. If a message is not received, it almost certainly is an outside problem. There is no ambiguity, no quarantine to explore, no summary to wait for. Everything is in the mailbox.

[Technical note: larger businesses can change this arrangement to suit their needs. Office 365 administrators for enterprises have access to almost all the settings in Forefront to add and change policies. Small business clients will never change the default mail handling, which works as I describe.]

Office 365 users have to check their junk mail folder. In my experience the accuracy of the spam filtering is uncanny; I almost never find a legitimate message in Junk Mail. Blacklisting and whitelisting senders is handled in Outlook’s junk mail settings.

I have worked with many spam filtering services. Many of my clients relied on Exchange Defender for years, and some are still subscribers. The experience with Office 365 is easier to understand and easier to deal with day to day.

No ambiguity. All messages are delivered. No delays in receiving mail. I had the Microsoft support engineer repeat that to me several times today to make sure I understood him correctly, then did the research and confirmed it.

If you’re interested in Office 365 and Exchange Online, give me a call!

Update 05/09/12

Some of my Office 365 clients were getting quarantine delivery reports, which didn’t fit the setup I describe above. After investigating, it appears that new Office 365 accounts are set up as described, but accounts originally set up with Microsoft Online Services BPOS were migrated over with the BPOS spam settings – a spam quarantine and a spam report every three days.

As far as I know, my description here accurately describes the default setting for Office 365 unless and until an administrator changes it (which is very likely in larger companies). I’ve now turned off the spam quarantine for my migrated clients.

If anyone has different information, let me know! I want to be confident about this.

Every time I write about Microsoft OneNote, it seems appropriate to introduce it to people who aren’t yet familiar with it. I’ll repeat the overview from my previous articles about OneNote, then give you some tips and tricks that turned up recently.

OVERVIEW

Microsoft OneNote 2010 collects information on the fly from any source you can imagine, and helps you find it again later when you need it. That’s any information. OneNote can hold your grocery list as easily as your research or trial preparation. Saving a web page is as easy as right-clicking the page and clicking on “Send to OneNote.”

OneNote is designed for its notebooks to be stored online in Microsoft’s Skydrive service. When you link to your online OneNote notebooks from different computers or mobile devices, the program syncs everything instantly and seamlessly.

Microsoft OneNote 2010 is included with every edition of Microsoft Office. It deserves time spent learning how to use it – visit the Microsoft web site and spend time with introductory videos and descriptions, or take one of Lynda.com’s courses.

RECYCLE BIN

OneNote is elegantly designed. You might need to spend a few minutes discovering the way to do something in OneNote but the answers frequently turn out to be very satisfying.

When crack web programmer Andrew Berls asked me how to recover an inadvertently deleted page from a OneNote notebook, I was stumped. It took me a few minutes to discover the button on the Share ribbon. OneNote maintains its own Recycle Bin where deleted pages and sections are kept for sixty days.

PAGE VERSIONS

The discovery of the Notebook Recycle Bin drew attention to the button next to it. OneNote keeps track of every edit to a page and saves previous versions. You can display a generous number of previous versions of a page by clicking the Page Versions button. Each edit on previous versions is highlighted by date and author.

MULTIPLE WINDOWS

OneNote is usually run in a single window, like Outlook, but it can be run in multiple windows to compare notes side by side or work in many different notes simultaneously. Hit Ctrl-M to open another OneNote window. That’s it! It’s a simple trick that I just learned and it makes all the difference in maneuvering around for different projects.

[Reminder for Outlook users: you can run Outlook in multiple windows and have Mail, Contacts and Calendar all onscreen simultaneously. This article has the info you need.]

RESEARCH

A OneNote feature that is so odd that it has to be mentioned.

Point to a word on a OneNote page, hold the Alt key down and left-click once on the word.

A panel will open on the right with definitions of the word from Bing. There is a dropdown menu with a selection of dictionaries, thesauri, and reference sites. (Since I wasn’t sure about the plural, I used OneNote to look up “thesauri” in an online dictionari.)

It’s pointless but I find it endearing.

An updated version of Microsoft Security Essentials is being installed automatically for anyone currently running the free antivirus program. It is being pushed out silently by the Automatic Updates system and will likely be completely invisible to most of you. It does not require a restart after the update is installed.

One recent report showed that Microsoft Security Essentials has become the most popular security program in North America and second worldwide. MSE is one of Microsoft’s best program designs precisely because it is nearly invisible when it is doing its job: it installs with two or three clicks and no restart, and there are virtually no popup windows calling attention to the program when it is running, unlike every other antivirus program on the market. It is free – no registration, no trials, no expiration date, no renewals. The license authorizes it to be used in businesses up to ten PCs (and personally I sleep well even if I discover that a business with 20 or 25 workstations is using it).

Windows 8 has the functionality of Microsoft Security Essentials built into the OS. At that point malware protection will finally sit where it has always belonged, as a function of the operating system rather than a bolted-on afterthought.

It’s important to keep in mind that most malware sidesteps your security program by arriving from poisoned web sites that attempt to convince you to click an OK button. When you click the OK button, you are telling your security program to stand down. Your most effective security is your common sense. Antivirus programs are just one item on the Rules For Computer Safety. (If those aren’t taped to your refrigerator already, do it now!)

The interface for Microsoft Security Essentials is almost unchanged, other than a new background color. If you’re curious about whether you’ve gotten the upgrade yet, open MSE and click in the upper right on Help / About Security Essentials. The upgrade shows 4.0 for both the Security Essentials Version and the Antimalware Client Version.

The updates are all under the hood. One interesting improvement, according to Microsoft: “We have improved on Microsoft Security Essentials’ Automatic Remediation, which will automatically quarantine highly harmful threats without prompting the user to take action.” A reasonable interpretation: if a web page drops a potentially dangerous file into your Temporary Internet Files folder, MSE might remove it without bothering you.

The upgrade began to be rolled out on April 24. I got mine on April 25. I’ve seen several computers get the update in the last couple of days. If the update is installed while you’re using the computer, you may see a popup that Microsoft Security Essentials has been turned off. It will disappear in a minute or two when the updated version is turned on. (On one computer today, the old version was uninstalled but the new version failed to install correctly. Windows popped up its notice that no antivirus program was installed. Manually installing directly from the MSE web site cured the problem.)

Be careful out there!

Previously:
Dropbox, Microsoft Skydrive, Google Drive: Send In The Clones

This is not an exhaustive list, just a few things that stand out about the cloud syncing services in their current forms. None of these is a reason to choose one or the other service, they’re just interesting things to know.

DROPBOX

SPEED Dropbox has become tremendously popular because of its speed and reliability. When you modify a file on your laptop, the changes are synced to your desktop computer in the time that it takes you to push your chair in front of the other keyboard. Dropbox uses very smart technology to sync folders with an absolute minimum of data being transmitted back and forth.

HIGHER PRICE At the moment, Google Drive and Skydrive are cheaper if you want to purchase large amounts of storage space. I expect those price differences to even out quickly. Dropbox is likely to adjust its pricing, perhaps in the next few days.

NO ONLINE EDITING Long-term, the key differentiator is likely to be that Dropbox does not let you open files directly into Google Docs or Microsoft Office Web Apps. Neither of those is currently used heavily but I expect them to become better known and more useful; if Dropbox is cut off from them, it will be a real disadvantage. I’m hoping a solution will be cooked up by Dropbox or a third-party developer.

GOOGLE DRIVE

NO DELTA UPLOADS I saw an unconfirmed report of a technical shortcoming in Google Drive: reportedly it is remarkably inefficient about using your bandwidth to upload and download data.

Dropbox uploads and downloads only the changed bits in a file – “delta” uploads, if I understand the vocabulary. If you change a few words in a Word file, Dropbox does not upload the entire file, just a few bits of data that cover the changes.

Apparently, Google Drive will upload the entire changed file in that case. Any time any bit in a file is changed, Google Drive uploads and downloads the entire file again.

When you’re working with big files, that potentially leads to delays in the syncing process. It’s also just ugly from a technical perspective.

Similarly, Google Drive reportedly requires uploads to be duplicated in situations where Dropbox is smarter – if you have a duplicate file in two folders, for example, Dropbox uploads it once, Google Drive uploads it twice. If the report is true, Dropbox engineers are a big step ahead of the Google Drive engineers.

NO RIGHT-CLICK SHARING Google Drive and Skydrive also have one shortcoming compared to Dropbox in the process of sharing files. You can right click on a file or folder in the Dropbox folder on your computer and get a link to share with anyone with a single click. (Dropbox just enhanced its sharing features a few days ago, making it even easier to use the service for sharing files.)

Neither Google Drive nor Skydrive offer any right-click menu on files or folders – not for sharing, not for anything else. Sharing can only be done using fairly clumsy controls on each website.

SKYDRIVE

NO SELECTIVE SYNC The big shortcoming of Skydrive only affects people storing very large amounts of data in it: there is no way to do a selective sync on a computer so that only certain folders are synced. When Skydrive is installed on a Windows or Mac computer, the entire contents of the Skydrive folders are always copied to the computer. That may not be what you want if you’re using the service for large photo, music or video collections and you want to add Skydrive to a notebook with a small hard drive.

NO DELETED ITEM RECOVERY A more interesting shortcoming is that Skydrive currently offers no recovery of deleted items. When a file is deleted, it’s just gone. When you delete a file from the Skydrive folder on your computer, the file goes in the Recycle Bin, so frequently that won’t be a terrible problem. But it’s an odd omission; being able to recover deleted files for 30 days is basic and easy to implement.

FETCH FILES FROM OTHER FOLDERS Skydrive does, however,have one interesting feature that the other services don’t offer. You can reach through it to the file system of another computer connected to your Skydrive account and download any file from that computer, no matter where it’s located, as long as the other computer is turned on.

The “fetch” feature requires authentication for security – you can’t reach into the remote computer unless you tap in a code transmitted by email or text message. (That might only be required once for each computer. I haven’t tested to see if network drives can be accessed this way.)

These are all things that might be changed as these services evolve in the next few months. They are the kind of quirks that come along with any new technology – any of them might be important to you as you begin to use the service but it’s hard to predict that and discover missing features ahead of time. Good luck!

Microsoft and Google each introduced services this week that are copies of Dropbox in rather precise detail.

Taken together, these services represent a fundamental change in the way we use technology. Here’s my best effort to sum it up:

Storing files on one device or in one physical location is now just another option – and not a very useful one.

We are using multiple devices in multiple locations: our own computers at office, home or on the road; smartphones and tablets; and borrowed and public devices. These services (and all their less well-known competitors) give you equal access to those files at all of those locations on all of those devices.

That is simple and easy to understand, which is part of why it is also enormously powerful. You will quickly just expect your technology to do this for you.

Dropbox, Microsoft Skydrive, and Google Drive work identically.

• You install a small bit of software on your computer and link it to your account.
• A special folder is created named “Dropbox” or “SkyDrive” or “Google Drive.” Anything stored in that folder is synced to online folders. When you install the program on a second computer and link it to the same account, those files are copied to the second computer. The folders are always kept in sync – additions/deletions/changes are synced very quickly so the files are identical no matter where you look at them.
• You can do interesting things with the files if you access them using a web browser.
• Each service has apps for mobile phones and tablets which allow you to access all the files stored online.
• Each service allows you to use a certain amount of file space for free. More space can be purchased. Prices are going to change rapidly so don’t get hung up on one of them being “cheaper” than another.
• You can share the files and folders in lots of interesting ways.

Within that framework, there are small differences between the various services. The Microsoft and Google announcements have been analyzed to death this week in the tech community; if you’re curious you can find elaborate charts comparing the prices and features and endless articles about the details of each one.

There’s no right or wrong answer about whether you should be using one of these services – and if so, which one. Here are some thoughts to help you get oriented.

• Although all of these services can be used on all platforms, the Microsoft and Google services are designed to bring you into their walled gardens.

Google Drive is an enhanced version of Google Docs. You can open word processing files and spreadsheets using Google’s online apps in your web browser (which Google hopes will be Google Chrome). Then you can send links from your Google Gmail account and share them on your Google+ page.

Microsoft’s new Skydrive app replaces the crippled Live Mesh (which still technically exists but is likely to disappear soon). You can open word processing files and spreadsheets using Microsoft’s Office Web Apps in your web browser. Then you can . . . well, you can guess. Lots of interaction with other Microsoft services and programs.

Skydrive will be built even more deeply into Windows 8. Every Windows 8 device will provide access to files in Skydrive just as easily as anything stored directly on the device. Every Windows 8 app that works with files will be required to have Skydrive access built in. The other services will run on Windows 8 too so it’s hard to know yet if that’s an important advantage for Skydrive.

• You probably don’t need more than one of these. Pick one and learn it.

Some people will have strong opinions about why (this one) is clearly superior and the only reasonable choice. If you picked (that one), you’ll wonder if you should switch or run them both.

Each one of these services has rich features that deserve time and attention. Pick one and stick with it. Learn its quirks. Learn how to share things. Wrestle with the things you don’t understand. There may come a time when you can clearly articulate a reason to switch. If and when that time comes, make the change. Until then, don’t dabble with more than one.

Not to mention that you’ll have trouble remembering where you stored things if you’re using more than one of these services.

• Dropbox has name recognition and a track record.

Dropbox is a marvel. I am not aware of any claims that data has been lost by someone using Dropbox. That is an extraordinary technical achievement. It is fast, accurate, and rock solid after years of being used in production.

There’s a good chance that the same thing will be true for Microsoft Skydrive and Google Drive but my conservative nature wants to see how they fare for the next few months before I commit to them.

Dropbox enters this battle with goodwill and name recognition. Google and Microsoft rolled out very, very big guns this week and it’s obvious that their shared goal is to blast Dropbox into irrelevance as quickly as possible. They may succeed. They are, after all, two of the three 80-trillion-ton gorillas in the tech world. (And Apple may step into this as well with an expansion of iCloud.)

I like Dropbox. I hope it goes toe to toe and holds its own against the giants. I’m sticking with it for now.

• These services are primarily for individuals and consumers.

Individual businesspeople can and should use one of these! This is an invaluable way to get files home or onto a notebook or tablet.

They are not really well suited to be the central document repository for the entire business or for all the files created by a law firm. Dropbox and Google Drive both have some tools for small businesses but there are many shortcomings in control and security, difficulties with the way the services handle drive space, and more. Small businesses and law firms may have other methods to provide access to files (for example, the web portal in Small Business Server 2011 Essentials), or they should look into true business-oriented solutions like Box.net, Sharepoint, or NetDocuments.

From a business perspective, it’s worth noting that Google Docs is very difficult to use in a business world dominated by Microsoft Office. The online Microsoft Office Web Apps have their own shortcomings but they will be far easier to adjust to than Google Docs for most small businesses and law firms.

• Expect a flood of third-party apps that are built on one of the services.

Each company has published the APIs that will allow developers to make programs that use these online storage and syncing features. Microsoft has made Skydrive just as open as the others, something it might not have done in the past. It’s yet another way that 2012 will have a Wild West feeling as developers big and small jockey for position.

There is more to be said about these services. Expect a stream of announcements as prices and space allocations are changed around and features are added. Google is enduring an early kerfuffle about its license terms, which make it seem that you have surrendered your information to Google when you add it to Google Drive. Skydrive doesn’t have a way to selectively sync folders to some computers, creating the risk that a big Skydrive folder could overwhelm a small SSD in an Ultrabook. (This service) does a better job displaying (this kind of file) on (this kind of device). Google Drive isn’t available to everyone and Google doesn’t have its app ready for iPads and iPhones quite yet. On and on and on it goes.

[Do you want me to just tell you what to do? Try Dropbox. It’s awesome. Let me know if you need help getting started!]

Let’s gather up all the things that are on the verge of changes large and small. It covers just about every category.

The common thread is that not one of them is ready now.

Everything is in play. Anything that you buy now will seem like a poor decision in hindsight within a short time.

I’ve written about all of these things before but it’s interesting to put it all in one place.

DEVICE CHOICES

The biggest change is right in front of you all the time now. It’s the dawning realization that not everyone needs a computer. A computer is a massively overpowered and overcomplicated device for people who want to browse web sites, check Facebook, read email, and watch TV shows – and that’s all the technology that a lot of people need.

More and more people will happily give up their computers for tablets and smartphones. The rest of us will pick up the device that suits our need at the moment, choosing equally among all the form factors. The cliché is right: it’s a post-PC world.

WINDOWS NOTEBOOK COMPUTERS

In the next few weeks the first Ultrabooks will arrive with Intel’s new notebook chipset, Ivy Bridge. This summer a flood of new thin and light notebooks will hit the market, followed in the fall by a variety of new form factors – notebooks with reversible screens and dual screens, notebooks with detachable keyboards, notebook/tablet hybrids, and more. Walt Mossberg this week in the Wall Street Journal: “If you’re thinking of buying a new laptop this spring, my advice is to think again. Unless your laptop is on its last legs and you have to move quickly, there are compelling reasons to wait until at least the summer, and probably the fall, to buy a new machine.”

WINDOWS PHONES

Nokia’s Lumia 900 for AT&T debuted recently to rapturous reviews and even a bit of enthusiasm in the market. It is a placeholder to keep Nokia in business and generate a tiny bit of awareness for Windows Phones until the real products arrive later this year.

Windows 8 phones will be offered by many manufacturers and will be available from all of the carriers, backed by advertising and media coverage designed to make Windows Phones just as natural a choice as an iPhone or Android phone. Think that’s unlikely? Don’t bet against it.

WINDOWS TABLETS

At the moment this is an empty category. By the end of the year the shelves at Amazon and Best Buy and the cell carriers will be bulging with tablets running Windows 8. Like Windows phones, you may be surprised to discover that you feel they are worthy competitors to the iPad and Android tablets. In fact, you might want one – there will be some genuinely useful synergy between Windows 8 computers, tablets and phones. You’ll be depressed if you blew the budget earlier in the year on an Android tablet that’s sitting unused.

WINDOWS 8

The next version of Windows will arrive this fall. It is an audacious gamble by Microsoft, which has designed a user interface that is well suited to the new world of multiple and mobile devices – but it can only succeed if it survives the unhappiness of all the computer users asked to learn new ways to get things done.

• By this time next year you might be convinced that you want a Windows 8 computer and tablet and phone, all working together to keep you productive in a seamless way that is not possible today.
• By this time next year you might be convinced that Microsoft’s failure with Windows 8 will be studied in business schools and you’ll be scrambling to stock your business with Windows 7 machines while they’re still available.

I can’t imagine how Vegas oddsmakers would figure out how to make a prediction about the outcome of that bet.

MAC NOTEBOOK COMPUTERS

A long overdue refresh of the MacBook Pro will arrive soon, perhaps in the next month or two – thinner, lighter, powered by Intel’s Ivy Bridge chips. It will be a major upgrade to the MacBook lineup that will make the current models look very tired by comparison.

iPHONES

The iPhone 4S was a placeholder while Apple prepared a more significant update to the iPhone line. Rumors are flying. My guess: a bigger screen, 4G/LTE capability and an improved camera, announced in late summer/early fall to try to extend Apple’s extraordinary streak through the end of the year and divert attention away from Windows 8 devices.

iPADS

A rare stable point. No big changes in iPads for the rest of the year. They don’t have to be changed. They outclass everything else on the market. (Personally I don’t think the next generation of Android tablets will change that.)

ANDROID PHONES

Android 4.0 (“Ice Cream Sandwich”) is inching its way into the world ever so slowly. It’s a dramatic upgrade that will make current Android phones look stodgy. There is no accurate information about which current phones will be upgraded to the new OS and which will be passed by. There are almost no Android 4.0 phones available yet in the US; that will change rapidly in the next few months.

ANDROID TABLETS

The current Android tablets are hopeless. No one should buy one when the iPad sitting next to it on the shelf is simply a better device in every single way. The next version of Android may change that but it’s still several months before tablets built on Android 4.0 become available in quantity. The Android tablets on the market now will disappear without leaving a trace.

MOBILE PHONE CARRIERS

The carriers are working on a massive buildout of their networks to improve data speeds and coverage. They’re having trouble keeping up with the demand for data even in the big cities where they’ve focused their attention first, so many people will not feel the advantage of 4G/LTE coverage for another year or more.

Meanwhile, the carriers and the cable companies are in the middle of long term plans to charge extra if we actually use our data connections. Watch for more restrictions on bandwidth, fewer “unlimited” plans, and more stories about horrific bills for people watching too many episodes of Downton Abbey in a month.

CLOUD SERVICES

It’s worth mentioning how many services are in long-term transitions to entirely new products delivered in new ways.

• Email for small businesses and individuals is well on its way to being a cloud-based commodity. Individuals are abandoning POP3 accounts from their ISP and turning to Gmail, Hotmail and Yahoo Mail. Small businesses are signing up for Office 365 as Microsoft takes over the market for hosted Exchange mailboxes.
• There is rapidly increasing interest in online backups as an important supplement to (or replacement for) traditional backups to local devices.
• Dropbox has caused millions of people to trust their files to the cloud for the convenience of having them available everywhere on every device. Microsoft just released an improved version of Skydrive. Google will soon announce Google Drive. Apple will add capabilities to iCloud. Having a file stored in only one location is starting to look like just another option and not a very useful one.
• Businesses are already open to considering services delivered in a web browser. Those will become more plentiful and more appealing in the next year or two. Very soon the experience of running a cloud-based line-of-business program will be literally indistinguishable from the experience of running a program from the server in the closet.
• Meanwhile new methods of delivering and licensing traditional installed software will be appearing rapidly. Example: Adobe announced an upgrade to its line of creative products today which is heavily weighted towards monthly subscriptions, allowing users to mix and match programs on their devices at will.

What’s the takeaway?

Desktop computers are going to be relatively stable for the next few months. If you need a new desktop computer for your business this year, buy it in confidence.

But if you need a notebook or phone or bit of software this month, you should be procrastinating. If you buy something this summer, you should have in mind that you may wind up regretting whatever you choose.