Clayton Holmes is Keith Law's sleeper pick to break in to the top 100 next year.

As part of his 2012 preview of the top prospects in baseball, Keith Law has released his sleeper prospects for all 30 teams. Yesterday he released his top 100 prospects list. Five Pirates prospects were on the list, and Luis Heredia ended up on the list of ten players who just missed. Today’s sleeper rankings are a look at guys who could end up in the top 100 with a breakout season.

Law specifies that the list features one player from every organization who could take a big step forward in 2012, potentially ending up in next year’s top 100, preferably in the middle-to-top of the ranking. His choice for the Pirates was right hander Clayton Holmes.

The Pirates drafted Holmes in the ninth round this past year and gave him a $1.2 M signing bonus, which was the biggest bonus ever in ninth round history. Holmes throws 90-93 MPH, and has a slider which can be a plus pitch at times. His slider has been erratic at times, and he needs to work on smoothing out his delivery. Law points out his lively fastball, and that he can repeat his arm action. Holmes also has the size to be a front-line starter, another thing that Law points out.

Normally the Pirates send their prep pitchers to State College for their first pro season, following time in extended Spring Training. I would expect Holmes to take the same path, working on his fastball command and working on consistency with his slider. Because of his size and two good pitches at a young age, he’s a good choice for a sleeper candidate.

Scott Bonnett, who has been the Pirates equipment manager for the past 12 years, along with other employees and members of the clubhouse staff, began filling the equipment truck for spring training today.

Shortly after 9 AM, the truck will travel nearly 1,100 miles to Bradenton, Fla., where the Pirates train for spring training.

This year there is little weight and training equipment packed onto the truck. The Pirates decided to ship it directly down to Florida. Bonnett said some bats are here, and some are already in Florida.

What is loaded onto the trucks this year is personal items –shirts, jackets, pants, hats and the batting practice tops, along with some personal luggage, which included pink bikes, golf clubs and fishing poles. There will also be equipment loaded on to the truck that they will take down to Pirate City and then it will be loaded into a pod to go to the Dominican.

“It’s just all the ends and outs of my equipment room –shower shoes, underwear, it’s everything. I have to pack it all up and start down there,” Bonnett said.

The truck will arrive late Saturday night or Sunday morning and will be unloaded on Monday. Bonnett said it takes a couple days to get the equipment room set up and ready to go.

“It takes about three hours to actually unload the truck,“ he said. “It takes probably two days to organize it from where it’s supposed to go. Each box is labeled to whether it goes to Pirate City, or McKechnie Field, offices, Dominican. It’s about a two full day project. After the two days, it’s just another day to just tidy up and get it how you want it.”

“Within three days, I’m pretty much ready to go.”

The club will be ready to go shortly there after. Some players have already arrived in Florida. Pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report on Feb. 18, with their first workout set for next day. The first full-squad workout is held at Pirate City on Feb 24.

Other players born on this date include:

Larry McWiliams(1954) lefty pitcher for the Pirates from 1982 until 1986. He was a first round draft pick of the Braves in 1974 and had pitched for them in the majors since 1978 when the Pirates traded for him on June 30,1982, sending Pascual Perez to Atlanta. Larry was a starter his first four seasons in the majors but was moved to the bullpen for 1982 and was struggling with a 6.21 ERA before the Pirates picked him up. He would be moved back to the starting role in Pittsburgh and excel, cutting his ERA in half with a 6-5 3.11 record to finish the year. In 1983 he had his best major league season, going 15-8 3.25 in 38 starts and finishing fifth in the NL Cy Young award voting. Hie ERA improved to 2.93 the following season but the Pirates were a sub .500 team and it showed in his record as he went 12-11. That year the Pirates had four pitchers win at least 12 games yet they still finished with a 75-87 record. McWilliams went downhill pretty quickly from there, he was moved to the bullpen late in 1985 and the following year he was went back and forth between the starting and relieving roles. He posted a 4.70 ERA in 1985 and a 5.15 in 1986. He was released by the Pirates following the 1986 season and went on to play for four teams over the next four seasons before retiring as a player.

Billy O’Dell(1933) lefty pitcher for the Pirates during the 1966-67 seasons. He had been a starter early in his career, four times winning at least ten games with a high of 19 in 1962. He was moved to a bullpen role in 1964 and the following year he won ten games with a 2.18 ERA and 18 saves in 62 games. He began the 1966 season with the Atlanta Braves before the Pirates acquired him on June 15 for reliever Don Schwall. O’Dell would pitch 37 games the rest of the year going 3-2 2.78 in 71.1 innings. In the beginning of the 1967 season he was used as a starter and struggled in the role, posting a 6.18 ERA in 11 games before being moved back to the bullpen. He finished the season with a 5-6 5.82 record in 86.2 innings. O’Dell retired after the Pirates released him following the 1967 season. He was a two time all-star who never played a single game in the minors.

Cotton Tierney(1894) second baseman for the 1920-23 Pirates. He played minor league ball for seven seasons before the Pirates gave him his first shot at the majors as a September call-up in 1920. Cotton was a regular on the 1921 Pirates, playing about half of the team’s games at 2B while getting time in at three other positions. He hit .299 with 52 RBI’s, a small sign of the success about to come for him. In 1922 he played 122 games and hit .345, good enough for fifth in the NL and second on the Pirates to outfielder Carson Bigbee. Early in the 1923 season he was traded to the Phillies in a four player deal that got the Pirates pitcher Lee Meadows, who was a key piece to the 1925 Pirates team that won the World Series. Tierney hit .312 in 1923 but by the end of 1925 his major league career was over. He played in the minors until 1930.

Bill Evans(1893) pitcher for the 1916-17 and 1919 Pirates. His contract was purchased by Pittsburgh on August 10, 1916 and just three days later he was making his major league debut. Evans pitched 13 games over the final seven weeks of the season, starting seven of those games and throwing three complete games. He had a 2-5 3.00 record in 63 innings. In 1917 he went 0-4 3.338 in eight appearances before joining the military to serve during WWI. He missed the entire 1918 season, returning the following year to go 0-4 5.65 in seven early season games for the Pirates before returning to the minors. He played minor league baseball until 1928, three times winning at least 16 games in a season but never returned to the majors. He had a 2-13 record with the Pirates despite a 3.85 overall ERA. That winning percentage of .133 leaves him tied with John Van Benschoten(who had a 9.20 ERA) for the worst winning percentage in franchise history among pitchers with at least 15 decisions.

-Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the two sides continue discussing a possible deal that would send Burnett to the Pirates. Heyman reports that the Yankees are willing to pay a substantial portion of Burnett’s remaining salary, but that the two sides are still a few million apart. Heyman mentions that the Yankees first offered a deal where the Pirates would pay more than one-third of Burnett’s salary, closer to a 50-50 split.

-Joel Sherman of the New York Post expects the Yankees to deal Burnett before camp opens. He feels the team will wait to see if the Pirates, or any other club, offers to take on more salary.

-Sherman also provides some insight as to why the Pirates weren’t on Burnett’s no-trade list (Three Twitter links). Burnett’s list includes all of the teams on the West Coast because his wife has a fear of flying. When he signed with Toronto, he negotiated a deal where his wife would receive eight round trip limo rides from their home in Baltimore to Toronto. So while the Pirates don’t have a winning record, the distance from Burnett’s home is a positive for Burnett.

UPDATE 12:18 PM: Jon Heyman was on 93.7 The FAN earlier and said he thinks this deal will get done. He also said that Garrett Jones is off the table. (h/t to Jim at North Side Notch). Heyman also added on Twitter that the Pirates haven’t agreed to pay $10 M of Burnett’s remaining $33 M.

Yesterday there was some talk that the Pirates could be interested in Burnett, with the Yankees paying a bulk of his salary. Buster Olney speculated that a Garrett Jones for Burnett swap, with New York paying 90% of Burnett’s salary, might be appealing.

Tonight Olney reports that Jones is, in fact, the guy the Yankees want from the Pirates, but that the Pirates don’t want to move Jones. Olney added that the Yankees know they’ll have to eat a huge portion of Burnett’s salary, likely in the $25-27 M range.

To get an idea of the value of a Burnett deal, let’s take a look at his trade value:

A.J. Burnett

Explanation: Burnett has been a 1.5 WAR pitcher the last two years. That, plus his $16.5 M contract, makes him worth negative $8.8 M per year.

What He’s Worth: The Yankees would have to pick up $17.6 M in salary just to give Burnett away. Even then, the team that gets Burnett is getting no value on his 1.5 WAR. Burnett would be owed $7.7 M per year in that scenario. In order to get a grade C pitching prospect, the Yankees would have to pick up an additional $2-3 M, which takes Burnett down to $6 M a year.

So what about Garrett Jones?

Garrett Jones

Explanation: Jones was an 0.9 WAR player in 2011. He will likely see a bigger role in 2012, although I went conservative and just bumped him up to an even 1.0 WAR. His 2013 and 2014 salaries are arbitration estimates. Jones is eligible for arbitration in 2015, but it would provide negative value at a 1.0 WAR, so I didn’t include that.

What He’s Worth: Jones is worth $4.5 M over the remainder of his team control. This assumes he continues playing at the same rate as his 2011 season. If he improved even a slight amount to a 1.5 WAR player, his value would jump to $12-14 M, depending on whether you want to add that last arbitration year.

Jones for Burnett?

Value-wise, the Yankees would have to pick up $22.1 M just to match the value of Jones from his 2011 season. That would cost the Pirates $10.9 M over two years for Burnett. Of course if the Pirates value Jones higher than a 1.0 WAR player, then the deal wouldn’t make sense. The Yankees would basically have to pick up all of Burnett’s salary just to meet that price.

The Pirates seem set on going in to the year with Garrett Jones as their starting first baseman, with Casey McGehee platooning in the role. Trading Jones would seemingly leave McGehee as the first baseman, although I think Matt Hague could fill the platoon role against right handers. It’s also interesting that the Pirates will be working out Dmitri Young. At the present time it would make no sense to have Young. They’ve got Jones/McGehee in the majors, and Hague in AAA, plus they’ve got Nick Evans as a non-roster invitee.

The thing about all of this is that the Pirates seem to be in the driver’s seat. The Yankees are in a position where they need to clear Burnett’s salary to make room for Eric Chavez and a left handed DH bat. The Pirates seem to be the only team that would be willing to take Burnett, even if the Yankees are picking up all but $8-10 M of his salary. So the Pirates don’t really need to give up Jones and open a spot at first base. They could hold off and try to give up a lesser return, since the Yankees are short on options.

Personally I wouldn’t mind a Jones for Burnett swap, especially if the Yankees were eating $25 M. I’d like to finally see what Matt Hague could do, and I think Burnett has more upside than Jones. I don’t see Jones as a guy who will ever break out of the platoon role/power hitter off the bench situation he’s in now. Burnett, on the other hand, would have massive value to the Pirates if he somehow discovered his old form, especially with the Yankees paying most of his salary. And while I consider Matt Hague an average first baseman in the majors, the combo of Jones/McGehee doesn’t project as much better, and this finally gives the Pirates an opportunity to see if Hague is a long term solution.

Law has Zack Dodson rated higher than any other outlet.

Along with his top 100 prospect list, Keith Law has released his top ten prospects for each team.

The list for the Pittsburgh Pirates starts out in the exact order as order in the top 100 list. Gerrit Cole comes in first, followed in order by Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, and Robbie Grossman. Luis Heredia, who was on Law’s list of players who just missed the top 100, came in sixth.

The next player was Kyle McPherson, who Law rated seventh. McPherson was followed by Stetson Allie, Colton Cain, and Zack Dodson.

The big surprise on the list was Dodson, as this is the highest he’s been rated. That’s not to say the rating isn’t deserved, as Dodson put up strong numbers when healthy last year, and shows some good movement on his pitches. Dodson was ranked 21st in the 2012 Prospect Guide. Baseball America had him 23rd, Baseball Prospectus didn’t have him in the top 20, and John Sickels had him 15th.

The notable omission was Tony Sanchez. Sanchez ranked in the top ten in the 2012 Prospect Guide. He also ranked in the top ten in Baseball America’s rankings as well as the rankings for Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels.

Gerrit Cole is the tenth best prospect in baseball, according to Keith Law.

Keith Law has released his top 100 prospects list, and five Pirates prospects are ranked. The list is for ESPN Insiders only, and can be viewed here.

The top Pirates prospect, according to Law, is Gerrit Cole, who was named the 10th best prospect in the game. Law has always been high on Cole, ranking him higher than other outlets heading in to the 2011 draft. He said Cole has the projection of a number one starter who can miss bats with as many as four different pitches, and who can handle an ace’s workload.

Next up was Jameson Taillon, who rated 16th overall. Law was critical of the Pirates’ approach to limit Taillon’s innings last year, and that criticism remained in his evaluation of Taillon. That’s always been a strange stance, because while the Pirates are strict on pitch counts and innings, they’re not really doing anything significantly different than what other top prep pitchers did in their first year. Taillon finished with 92.2 innings in his first year. As an example, Shelby Miller had 104.1 innings in his first year.

Josh Bell was up next, coming in at number 67. Law said that Bell reminds him of Jason Heyward from the left side of the plate. He mentioned that Bell has the ceiling of a All-Star, even if he plays an offense-first position.

The next two players ranked were a bit of a surprise. Law had Starling Marte ranked 72nd, and Robbie Grossman ranked 86th. To date, Law has been higher on Grossman and lower on Marte than most.

Law mentioned that Marte has tremendous tools, although he said he was hit or miss, with the ability to end up as an All-Star or a fourth outfielder. The biggest knock on Marte has always been his plate patience, and Law shares the concern.

Law was high on Grossman throughout the Arizona Fall League, so it’s no surprise that he’s the first to have Grossman in a top 100 list. A lot of people I’ve talked to are split on Grossman. Some like his plate patience, and suggest that he could be a good all-around player due to his defense at the corners and his power. Others don’t think he has the defense to play center, and don’t think he has the power to play a corner spot. Law seems to be in the former category. He mentioned that Grossman could be a good corner outfielder, with an OBP in the high .300s and 15-20 homers a year, all while producing above-average defense in right field.

Law also released ten prospects who just missed the top 100. The tenth player listed was Luis Heredia, who also appeared on Law’s “just missed” list last year. Law mentioned that Heredia is raw, and that he could very easily take six years to produce any positive major league value.

Eddie Solomon(1951) pitcher for the Pirates from 1980-82. He began his major league career in 1973 and had played for four teams already prior to coming to the Pirates in a March 1980 trade for a minor league pitcher. Prior to the trade Eddie had an 18-27 4.27 career record in 126 games pitched, 56 as a starter. For the Pirates in 1980 Solomon was used in both the relief role and as a starter for a stretch, going 7-3 2.69 in 100.1 innings. He had a similar role the next year with similar results, a record of 8-6 3.12 in 127 innings. In 1982 he began the year in the starting rotation and struggled, posting a 6.90 ERA in 10 starts before the Pirates traded him to the White Sox for infielder Jim Morrison. The White Sox released him in July after just six relief appearances. He pitched briefly in the minors in 1983 with the Yankees before retiring as a player. Sadly, he passed away at age 34 due to injuries he suffered in a car accident.

Jim Campanis(1944) catcher for the 1973 Pirates. He was signed by the Dodgers as an amateur free agent out of high school in 1962 and worked his way up through their system, making his major league debut in late 1966. Jim played parts of three seasons with Los Angeles but hit just .149 in 46 total games. The Dodgers sent him to the Royals, where he was the backup catcher for two seasons and there his batting average was even lower, .146 in 61 total games. The Pirates acquired him in a December 2,1970 trade that was covered here.  Campanis spent all of the 1971-72 seasons in the minors, finally earning a call-up with the Pirates after hitting .304 with 18 homers at AAA in 1973. In six late season pinch hit AB’s he went 1-6 with a single. That would be his last time in the majors, he spent the 1974 season at AAA for the Pirates before retiring as a player. He is the son of Al Campanis, who played for the 1943 Dodgers.

Roy Mahaffey(1904) pitcher for the 1926-27 Pirates. He began his minor league career in 1925 and by the end of next year he impressed the Pirates enough to give him his first taste of the big leagues as a reliever late in the 1926 season. In four games he pitched 4.2 innings allowing four runs, all of them unearned. In 1927 they let him start the third game of the season and while he picked up the win, he allowed five runs and seven walks in 6.1 innings and did not make another start. He pitched just once more for the Pirates, two weeks after his start and allowed three runs in three innings of mop-up work in a blowout loss to the Cubs. He was back in the minors by the beginning of May, next appearing in the majors with the Philadelphia Athletics to start the 1930 season. He went on to pitch seven more seasons in the majors, compiling a 67-49 5.01 record. He played baseball in the Textile Leagues for five seasons after his minor league career ended in 1936.

Wally Hood(1895) outfielder for the 1920 Pirates. He started his pro career in the minors in 1916 playing in Vancouver. He played in the minors in Canada until he made the Brooklyn Robins roster to start the 1920 season. After seven games in which he hit .143, he joined the Pirates in late May and was used twice as a pinch hitter. He made an out in his first game but walked, stole a base and scored a run in his second. He was sent to the minors after those two games for the rest of the season. Hood rejoined Brooklyn and played 56 games for them in 1921, then was used as a pinch runner twice very early in the 1922 season. He scored runs during both of those games, his last games in the majors. Wally played minor league ball until 1930 and had a .309 average in 1593 games over his 13 minor league seasons. His son Wally Hood Jr pitched for the 1949 Yankees

Hi Ladd(1870) outfielder who played for the 1898 Pirates. Ladd played one game for the Pirates, coming in to pinch hit on July 12, 1898 during a 4-1 loss to Brooklyn. Six days later he played his second, and last, major league game, this time as a member of the Boston Beaneaters. He collected a single in four trips to the plate and scored a run. Considering the fact he played just two major league games, it may be hard to believe that he had a long productive minor league career. He played 20 seasons in the minors and although his stats are incomplete, the 17 seasons that are available show that he had a .324 average in 1747 games.

Sumner Bowman(1867) lefty pitcher for the 1890 Pittsburgh Alleghenys. A local kid, he went to the University of Pittsburgh and was the first player from that school to play for Pittsburgh. He made his major league debut on June 11, 1890 for the Phillies, allowing seven runs over eight innings in a game that Philadelphia won 8-7 but he received no decision. Twelve days later he was starting for the Alleghenys, a team that was just 12-35 at that point. Bowman made seven starts and two relief appearances for Pittsburgh, making his last start exactly a month after his first one with the team. He was 2-5 6.62 in 70.2 innings in that time, allowing 100 hits and 50 walks. He finished the season with the Harrisburg Ponies of the Atlantic Association. He played one more season in the majors, for the Philadelphia Athletics of the American Association in 1891. The AA folded after that season and he followed the team to the Eastern League for 1892.

MLB Trade Rumors looked at the possible fits for Burnett earlier today, and the Pittsburgh Pirates were one of the four teams mentioned. We’ve heard the two sides linked on Burnett talks from earlier this off-season when the Pirates expressed interest in Burnett.

Burnett is owed $16.5 M a year over the next two years, and the Yankees are certainly going to have to pick up a large part of that salary in order to unload him. MLBTR speculated today that the Yankees might have to eat all but $8-10 M of Burnett’s salary.

Burnett can block a trade to ten teams, but Ken Rosenthal reports that the Pirates aren’t one of those teams. Rosenthal was the one who originally reported the talks between the two clubs.

Buster Olney came up with an interesting idea earlier today about a Garrett Jones for Burnett swap, with New York picking up 90 percent of Burnett’s salary. That scenario would put Burnett at about $1.5 M owed per year, and would fill New York’s need for a left handed bench bat.

The big question in all of this is whether Burnett is worth anything. Regardless of how much of the $33 M the Yankees pick up, the Pirates would still be spending money on a pitcher. Would that pitcher be worth the price, and would Burnett upgrade the current rotation?

Burnett has been a 1.5 WAR pitcher the last two years, mostly due to his innings. The results in those innings haven’t been strong, with a combined 5.20 ERA. His secondary numbers haven’t been bad, with a 7.6 K/9, a 3.8 BB/9, and a 1.3 HR/9. His advanced stats suggest he should have been better, with a 4.49 xFIP in 2010 and a 3.86 xFIP in 2011.

The 6′ 4″ right hander turned 35 last month, so there would be concerns that his last two years were the beginning of the end of his career, which has spanned for parts of 13 seasons.

Some might suggest that the results were due to the new Yankee stadium and playing in the AL East. Burnett never had a problem playing in the AL East with Toronto, where he had a 3.94 ERA over three years. He also has a career 4.14 ERA in 299.2 innings at new Yankees Stadium, so that doesn’t seem to be the issue.

Then there’s the “a move to the National League could help” theory. Burnett pitched in the National League for seven years with the Marlins, putting up a 3.73 ERA in 853.2 innings. But he last pitched in the National League at the age of 28. He did have good results last year in interleague play, with a 3.96 ERA in 25 innings. That wasn’t necessarily the case the year before, when he had a 16.55 ERA in 10.1 innings. Neither would be a good sample size to go on.

The Pirates are looking to enter the 2012 season with a rotation of Erik Bedard, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, and Kevin Correia. Burnett would be an upgrade over Correia, and his 190+ innings would be a good boost to a rotation that doesn’t feature any innings eaters. But how much do you pay for an upgrade over your fifth starter?

Burnett could have some upside, depending on whether you think a move to the National League could help, or whether you believe his advanced metrics are legit. He also has some red flags — age and horrible numbers the last two years — which would make teams less inclined to take a gamble on him. If the Pirates could get him with New York paying 90% of his salary, as Olney proposed, then it might not be that bad of a move, as the potential reward would outweigh the risk.

Jameson Taillon was named the Pirates' top prospect by MLB.com

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com released his top 20 Pittsburgh Pirates prospects for the 2012 season today on MLB.com. Click the link to go over and check out the rankings, along with a video on each player. Mayo also breaks down the Pirates’ system in this article.

The top four prospects are no surprise. Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, Starling Marte, and Josh Bell are ranked one through four respectively, the same order they had in MLB.com’s top 100. There are a few surprises after that group.

Stetson Allie came in on the list at number five, one ahead of Luis Heredia. A lot of people have Heredia in the top five, and Allie closer to number ten. Heredia was fifth and Allie was eighth in the Pirates Prospects rankings. Both pitchers are raw, but have a lot of upside. They both also struggled with control in their first pro seasons. While Heredia was only 16 in 2011, Allie was 20, which gives him less time to work on his issues from the 2011 season.

Finishing out the top ten in order were Tony Sanchez, Robbie Grossman, Jeff Locke, and Justin Wilson. I’m sure a lot of Pirates fans would disagree with the order of Sanchez and Grossman, considering the breakout season for Grossman and the down year for Sanchez.

The 11-15 rankings are dominated by pitchers. Kyle McPherson and Nick Kingham come in at number 11 and 12. Rudy Owens ranks 13th, while Bryan Morris ranks 15th. First baseman Alex Dickerson ranks 14th on the list, and was previously named one of the top ten first base prospects in minor league baseball by Mayo.

The 16-20 group features a lot of guys with tools and upside. Alen Hanson comes in at 16th, which is the highest I’ve seen him ranked, and might be a little too high considering his lack of experience. Colton Cain follows Hanson, and is followed in order by Zack Von Rosenberg, Clay Holmes, and Jarek Cunningham.

Mayo listed Matt Curry and Jeff Inman as under the radar prospects. He noted that had Curry gone to high-A instead of AA last year, he probably would have finished with monster numbers and created more buzz. He might have gotten more hype with the high-A numbers, but the real test for Curry, who was drafted as a college senior, is the AA level. That will be a key thing to watch in 2012.

Mayo also made his predictions for hitter and pitcher of the year. He predicted Josh Bell would be the hitter of the year, while Jameson Taillon would be the pitcher of the year.