Bull Trend Analysis Feed http://www.bull-trend.com Bull-trend.com was designed for traders like yourself. We strive to be your number-one resource for timely, accurate and useful forex, futures and commodity quotes, charts, technical opinion, trading analysis and other market commentary. CFM 263 94 http://www.bull-trend.com http://www.bull-trend.com/bk2/img/flogo.jpg EUR/USD recovers from 1-week low and erases daily losses http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 15:39:21 -0400 EUR/USD holds firm to session gains after Fed’s monetary policy report. Euro trims weekly losses against US dollar, back above 20-day moving average The EUR/USD pair recovered ground after the beginning of the American session rising from 1.1612, 1-week low, to 1.1670, slightly below daily highs. The pair remained above 1.1650 after the release of the Federal Reserve monetary policy report that Powell will present next week to Congress. According to the document, prospective economic conditions call for further gradual removal of monetary policy accommodation. The report had no significant impact on the US dollar as it added no new information.ç Despite recovering against the US dollar, the euro turned lower versus the pound. The slide of EUR/GBP could have limited the upside in EUR/USD. On a weekly basis, the pair is about to post the first slide after rising during the previous there weeks. Overall, it continues to move within the 1.1800 - 1.1500 wide range. Technical levels EUR/USD rose back above the 20-day moving average that stands at 1.1650 and is again a support level to consider. The recovery above that line could signal some short-term exhaustion to the downside. A daily close below 1.1630 would weaken the outlook for the euro. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 1.1670, followed by 1.1695 (20 and 55 MA in 4-hour charts) and 1.1730. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD testing 1.1672 resistance http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 15:23:15 -0400 EUR/USD is currently in a bullish consolidation phase as the market is testing 1.1672, the June 27 high. If the market fails to contain the price below the level the next resistance is located at the 1.1700 figure.  EUR/USD has been trading in a bear channel throughout the week and the price is currently being capped by the 200-period simple moving average. Bears objective is to initially regain the weekly lows at 1.1613 to then target the 2018 low at 1.1508.  EUR/USD 15-minute chart  Spot rate:              1.1662<br /> Relative change:   -0.08%  <br /> High:                     1.1676<br /> Low:                      1.1613 Trend: Bearish Resistance 1: 1.1672 June 27 high<br /> Resistance 2: 1.1700 figure<br /> Resistance 3: 1.1720-1.1730-1.1740 area, June 26 high, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from mid-April-May bear move and weekly open.<br /> Resistance 4: 1.1775 supply level <br /> Resistance 5: 1.1800 figure<br /> Resistance 6: 1.1851-1.1854 area, June high and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from mid-April-May bear move <br /> Support 1: 1.1640-1.1649 area, key level and July 12 low <br /> Support 2: 1.1613 current weekly low<br /> Support 3: 1.1600 figure <br /> Support 4: 1.1560 June 14 low<br /> Support 5: 1.1508 current 2018 low Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/JPY Technical Analysis: USD/JPY consolidating recent gains trading near 112.50 http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 14:56:28 -0400 USD/JPY is struggling to keep the bull momentum going this Friday as the market is currently reversing the gains made earlier in the day.  USD/JPY is now trading below its 50 and 100-period simple moving averages suggesting that the market is entering a consolidation phase after the recent 260-pip bull run. Near-term supports are seen near the 112.40 intraday swing low and 112.19, July 11 high while resistances are seen near 112.64 July 12 high and 112.82, the current Friday’s high. USD/JPY 15-minute chart  Spot rate:                 112.42 Relative change:       -0.12%     <br /> High:                        112.82<br /> Low:                         111.37 Trend:                       Neutral <br /> Resistance 1:  112.64 July 12 high<br /> Resistance 2:  112.82 July 13 high<br /> Resistance 2:  113.38 January 8 high<br /> Resistance 3:  114.45 October 27, 2017 high  Support 1:    112.40  intraday swing low <br /> Support 2:    112.19, July 11 high<br /> Support 3:    111.60-111.80 area, 23.6% and 23.2% Fibonacci retracement low/high July 11<br /> Support 4:    111.39 May 21 swing high<br /> Support 5:    111.02-111.16 previous intraday swing lows<br /> Support 6:    110.90 June 15 swing high Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. US stocks struggle to build on recent gains, focus shifts to earnings season http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 13:59:51 -0400 Major US equity indices struggled to build on recent gains and witnessed a lacklustre opening on Friday as investors assessed the first batch of corporate earnings reports. Second-quarter earnings season, which kicked off with results from big-banks - JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, will be looked upon to see if fundamental are strong enough to withstand uncertainties arising out of trade policies.  With expectations already running high, corporate earnings will play an important role in driving focus away from political headlines and determining the next leg of a directional move for the markets. Meanwhile, today's subdued action comes after Thursday strong session, which was partially driven by signs that the world's two largest economies are willing to resume trade talks and end in a bilateral agreement to avoid a trade war. Nevertheless, as on Thursday’s close, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was on track for a 1.8% gains for the week, while the broader S&P 500 Index eyed a 1.4% rise and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was set for a weekly advance of 1.9%. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. JPY reacting to tariff threats - AmpGFX http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 13:35:37 -0400 The most recent fall in EM assets has been driven to a significant extent by the US-China trade war, and some lost confidence in the Chinese economy and instead of acting as a safe-haven, the JPY became more closely aligned to Asian currencies and assets, according to Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital. Key Quotes          “The recent fall in JPY is consistent with weaker Asian currencies, albeit playing catch-up in the last week to falls in Asian currencies over the last month.” “Similarly, Japanese equities have looked a lot more like Asian regional equities rather than developed market equities in the last two months.” “In the past, the Japanese stock market was frequently negatively correlated with JPY, where a weaker JPY was seen to boost Japanese export revenue and inflation expectations.” “However, the reverse is true in the last month or so, JPY has been positively correlated with Japanese equities; in that, they have both fallen in unison.  This is the normal reaction in Asian regional markets and again suggests that JPY is responding to regional investor sentiment.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. WTI wobbles around $70.00 within a tight range http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 13:29:46 -0400 Prices of the WTI alternate gains with losses around the $70.00 mark/bbl. Support emerges around weekly lows in the $69.30 region. US oil rig count by Baker Hughes next of importance in the calendar. Prices of the barrel of the West Texas Intermediate are attempting a sideline theme in the area of weekly lows around the key $70.00 handle. WTI now looks to data Prices of the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil ae looking for traction in the lower bound of the weekly range following Wednesday’s sharp pullback and Thursday’s multi-day lows in the $69.30 region. WTI dropped markedly on Wednesday despite the EIA reported a more than 12 mbpd draw in US crude oil supplies, the largest decrease since 2016. In fact, news that Libya could resume its exports of oil impacted on traders’ sentiment and forced prices to recede more than $4 and break below the psychological $70.00 mark. In the same line, the prevailing effervescence around the US-China trade spat continues to weigh on the market and keeps capping any bullish attempt in prices. However, WTI found some respite after the latest monthly report from the IEA said crude oil supply could be threatened in light of the stretched spare capacity following OPEC+ plans to increment the output. Later in the day, driller Baker Hughes will publish its weekly report on US oil rig count. WTI significant levels   At the moment the barrel of WTI is up 0.04% at $70.45 facing the next hurdle at $72.97 (10-day sma) followed by $75.34 (2018 high Jul.4) and then $77.95 (high Nov.21 2014). On the downside, a break below $69.30 (low Jul.12) would target $67.86 (low Jun.27) and finally $67.16 (100-day sma). Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/JPY consolidates just below 6-month tops, around mid-112.00s http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 13:16:23 -0400    •  Fed rate hike prospects kept pushing the USD higher on Friday.<br />    •  JPY weighed down by easing US-China trade tensions/risk-on mood.<br />    •  Near-term overbought conditions prompt some profit-taking. The USD/JPY pair surrendered early gains to fresh six-month lows and is currently placed at the lower end of its daily trading range.  The pair kept pushing the pair higher for the fifth consecutive session on Friday and was supported by the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar, which was now seen extracting support from firming Fed rate hike expectations.  Meanwhile, a wave of risk-on trade, led by easing US-China trade tensions, was seen weighing on the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal and further collaborated to the pair's up-move to an intraday high level of 112.80, the highest since Jan. 9.  Bulls, however, took a breather at higher levels and opted to lighten their positions amid near-term overbought conditions, especially a strong upsurge of nearly 150-pips since the beginning of this week.  The latest leg of downtick over the past hour or so could be attributed to the latest US economic data, showing that import prices tumbled 0.4% m/m and marked its biggest drop since Feb. 2016. Looking at the broader picture, today's price action might still be seen as consolidative in nature and hence, dip-buying interest seems more likely to limit any meaningful correction, at least for the time being. Technical levels to watch Any subsequent slide is likely to find some fresh buying interest near the 112.00 handle, below which the pair is likely to accelerate the corrective slide back towards 111.40 resistance turned support. On the upside, the 112.70-80 zone now seems to have emerged as an immediate resistance, which if cleared is likely to lift the pair beyond the 113.00 handle towards its next hurdle near 113.35 area.<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Japan: Hard to see a consistent relationship between global equities and JPY - AmpGFX http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 13:14:29 -0400 Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, explains that JPY has traditionally been considered as a safe-haven; rising when global asset prices are weakening and to some extent, this also comes through bond yields, since risk aversion generally results in lower global bond yields and a lower USD/JPY yield advantage. Key Quotes          “In fact, the relationship between JPY and global equities has been rather mixed in the post GFC era.  The fact is that JPY is not as routinely used as a funding currency for ‘risk-on’ trades as it was before 2007.” “The JPY was highly correlated with the bond spread throughout 2017, and it paid little attention to the consistent strength in global equities.  In fact, up until January this year, broad USD weakness was associated with rising global equities, and the JPY participated in this move.  As such, USD/JPY fell despite a ‘risk-on’ mood.” “The USD/JPY made a low for the year in March, and this may have reflected broad market equity upheaval.” “In recent months, the JPY has tended to ignore further upheaval in EM equities.  On the other hand, US equities have been generally recovering.  As such, there has not been widespread risk aversion.  The environment has been more mixed.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD challenging 1.1650 resistance level after 60-pip drop http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 12:52:02 -0400 EUR/USD is currently consolidating just below the 1.1640-1.1649 area, key level and July 12 low as the market rebounded from the lower trendline of the channel.  EUR/USD dropped about 60 pips from Asia and is now in a 50% consolidation from daily high to low. EUR/USD bear momentum remains in place as the market is trending below its 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving average and the market is printing lower highs and lower lows.  Bears want to keep the market below 1.1700 and the next scaling points to the downside are seen near the 1.1600 figure and 1.1560 June 14 low. EUR/USD 15-minute chart  Spot rate:              1.1638<br /> Relative change:   -0.28%  <br /> High:                     1.1676<br /> Low:                      1.1613 Trend: Bearish Resistance 1: 1.1640-1.1649 area, key level and July 12 low <br /> Resistance 2: 1.1672 June 27 high<br /> Resistance 3: 1.1700 figure<br /> Resistance 4: 1.1720-1.1730-1.1740 area, June 26 high, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from mid-April-May bear move and weekly open.<br /> Resistance 5: 1.1775 supply level <br /> Resistance 6: 1.1800 figure<br /> Resistance 7: 1.1851-1.1854 area, June high and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from mid-April-May bear move <br /> Support 1: 1.1600 figure <br /> Support 2: 1.1560 June 14 low<br /> Support 3: 1.1508 current 2018 low Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD appears neutral/bearish near term - Scotiabank http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 12:50:50 -0400 In opinion of FX Strategists at Scotiabank, the pair should meet some support in the boundaries of 1.1600 the figure. Key Quotes “The EUR has weakened overnight but broader ranges prevail and, in that context, additional losses—potentially towards the lower end of the recent trading range in the low/mid 1.15s—are not to be excluded”. “After stalling above 1.1750 at the start of the week, spot looks poised remain soft and possibly test the 1.16 area into the weekend. We think there should be support for the EUR ahead of the figure area but weakness below last week’s 1.1593 low on the day will serve to reaffirm the risk of additional losses back towards the low 1.15s. We see resistance at 1.1650/80 intraday”. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. JPY: Is QE coming back as a factor? - AmpGFX http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 12:48:11 -0400 Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that so far this year, USD/JPY has become much more loosely related to US yields and QE has been forgotten since 2016; perhaps it is returning again as a factor contributing to recent weakness in JPY. Key Quotes          “The BoJ has reduced its pace of purchases somewhat since implementing yield curve control in Sep-2016, capping 10-year yields below 10bp.  Nevertheless, as a percentage of GDP, the BoJ’s balance sheet has continued to grow, reaching close to 100% of annual GDP.” “The Fed’s balance sheet has been declining as a percentage of GDP since 2014; at an increasing rate since Sep 2017 when it began QT.” “The diverging size of their balance sheets could be coming back into the equation for USD/JPY.” “If the market is returning to consider relative QE, then it is possible that USD/JPY could move significantly higher again.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish pressure remains unabated, refreshes yearly lows http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 12:33:40 -0400    •  The commodity falls to fresh YTD lows and was being weighed down by a combination of negative factors - broad-based USD strength, Fed rate hike expectations, risk-on mood.    •  The downfall has been alongside a downward sloping trend-channel formation on the daily chart and points to a continuation of the bearish trajectory.    •  With short-term technical indicators gradually drifting towards near-term oversold conditions, bears are likely to pause near the trend-channel support, also coinciding with 200-week SMA. Gold daily chart Spot rate: 1238.29<br /> Daily High: 1248.14<br /> Daily Low: 1236.52<br /> Trend: Bearish Resistance<br /> R1: $1241 (horizontal level)<br /> R2: $1248 (current day swing high)<br /> R3: $1252 (previous YTD weekly closing low) Support<br /> S1: $1236.52 (current day swing low)<br /> S2: $1234 (200-week SMA/descending trend-channel)<br /> S3: $1229 (horizontal level)<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Bitcoin price analysis: BTC/USD Bulls get a breather, but uptrend comes short of $6,300 http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 11:55:54 -0400 Bitcoin price is forming a classic falling wedge pattern pending upside breakout in the medium term. Bitcoin price must keep the support at $6,100, otherwise trading below $6,000 is still in sight. The majority of the top ten cryptocurrencies are making subtle higher corrections as we usher in the weekend trading. The assets have been swimming in the sea of red while the sellers have been having a field day. The overarching declines appear to have come to a halt and a recovery trend is in play at the moment. The regulation news has gone down for some time now, therefore, it is likely that the current price performance is mostly dependent on speculation along with supply and demand. Bitcoin price is fighting for a breakthrough above $6,300, although the critical resistance level at $6,400 is the next breakout target. BTC/USD is still range-bound within the channel with the upper limit at $6,860 and a lower limit of $5,775. The price is also forming a classic falling wedge pattern on the 4-hour timeframe chart, which could mean that a breakout is in the pipeline in the medium-term. The general trend for the intraday trading on Friday 13 is bearish, despite the effort by the buyers to push for movement to the upwards. The MACD momentum indicator is moving further into the negative region. Immediate resistance is preventing retracement at $6,250 while both the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA are standing in the way of the gains at $6,367 and $6,418.39 respectively. On the flipside, support is observed at $6,100 while trading below $6,000 is still within sight if the Bulls fail to overcome the Bear pressure. BTC/USD 4-hour chart <br> BEST BROKERS TO TRADE CRYPTO Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD remains depressed around 1.1620 http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 11:44:49 -0400 The pair broke below the key 1.1650 area, exposing further weakness. The greenback stays bid above the 95.00 handle. US Consumer Sentiment next of relevance in the calendar. The selling bias remains unabated around the European currency and is forcing EUR/USD to recede further to fresh lows in the 1.1620 region. EUR/USD looks to US data The pair is prolonging the decline today, down for the fourth session in a row and recording at the same time fresh multi-day lows. The ongoing move lower opens the door for extra pullbacks with immediate target at the 1.1500 neighbourhood, or 11-month lows. On the other side, investors’ sentiment keep supporting the demand for the buck amidst the current trade disputes between China and the US and a downward trend in yields of the key US 10-year note. In the data space, the most relevant event will be the flash gauge of the US Consumer Sentiment for the current month, seconded by June’s Export/Import Prices. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.39% at 1.1625 and a break below 1.1615 (low Jul.13) would open the door to 1.1527 (low Jun.29) and then 1.1508 (2018 low May 30). On the upside, the next resistance emerges at 1.1686 (10-day sma) seconded by 1.1741 (55-day sma) and finally 1.1792 (high Jul.9). Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. QE drove JPY from 2012 to 2016 - AmpGFX http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 11:39:56 -0400 In view of Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, from 2012 until 2016, the USD/JPY was for the most part driven by the adjustment to BoJ QE policy. Key Quotes          “The BoJ really entered the QE game in a big way following the election win by PM Abe in late 2012. Abe promised to revamp the BoJ and kick-start QE, and did so by appointing BoJ Governor Kuroda in 2013.  Kuroda implemented his version of “QQE” in April 2013, and drive USD/JPY from record lows below 80 in 2012 to 105 by end 2013.” “The USD/JPY then ran out of puff for much of 2014, until Kuroda decided to shock the market with a further expansion of its QE asset purchases, driving USD/JPY to new highs above 120 by late-2014 and for much of 2015.” “QE fatigue in 2016 In 2016, the market began to run into fatigue on BoJ QE policy, doubting that it was working to generate inflation, and predicting that the Japanese government and BoJ would lose patience with its perpetual soaking up of JGBs.  It seemed as if the BoJ was out of bullets and it proved reluctant to further expand its QE asset purchases even as USD/JPY fell. In this environment USD/JPY fell through much of 2016, unwinding a good deal of its QE induced rise in 2014/15. In Sep 2016, grasping for new ideas, the BoJ introduced its policy of “yield curve control”, targeting 10-year yields around zero, a policy it retains to this day. This may have helped stabilize the USD/JPY, and by late 2016 it started to rise again as the US economy started to show more strength and the Fed resumed its rate rises in December 2016, a full 12 months after its first hike in December 2015. Since 2016, USD/JPY has lost its fascination with BoJ QE, responding more to US yields.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/JPY: Path of least resistance appears to be higher for now - Westpac http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 11:34:53 -0400 Robert Rennie, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that they remain torn between positive US$ fundamentals on the one hand and the potential for all out trade war/ increased EM volatility on the other, but they have noted for many weeks that even in the midst of a significant deterioration in China/ US/ EU trade relations, USD/JPY could not break below 109.50. Key Quotes          “Wednesday’s price action was even more bizarre with USD/JPY breaking above 111.50. Thus the path of least resistance appears to be higher for now, though we remain concerned that next week’s ‘section 232’ auto hearings could shift ¥ sentiment.” “Thus, we stick with a ‘trade wars warrants caution’ near term view but more positive bias medium term.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Eurozone: Inflation, trade and ECB speak to remain in focus next week - Westpac http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 10:16:33 -0400 Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that Eurozone’s inflation data and comments from ECB members may remain of high interest, but the lack of other key data during the coming week means that the Trump-initiated focus on Eurozone’s trade surplus with US is likely to be the key focus. Key Quotes          “It is far from clear that there is a persistent relationship between EUR/USD and the steady rise in the region’s surplus since EUR was initiated. What is far more important is the impact of any trade dispute on sentiment and the ECB.” “Recently data has been beating estimates, implying that the extent of the slowdown in 2018 was abating. However, the sharp fall in the latest ZEW expectations suggests further sluggish Eurozone growth in H2 18.” “Rising political tension within Eurozone and with US reduces the scope for structural reforms and so is likely to maintain ECB’s forward guidance. EUR rebounds should struggle towards the upper end of its possible 1.12-1.19 range.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. JPY breaking away from US yields - AmpGFX http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 10:09:05 -0400 An interesting development is the run-up in the USD/JPY to new highs, breaking above what some people see as a three-year downtrend, even though US yields have moved sideways in the last month, according to Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital. Key Quotes          “The USD/JPY had appeared to re-connect with US yields since around March, after a period of disconnect in the first months of the year.” “The USD/JPY had been incredibly tightly correlated with US yields (or the yield spread) from around mid-2016 to end-2017.” “As such the market has gotten used to seeing USD/JPY and 10-year yields as moving in unison in recent years.” “However, there was a significant divergence between the USD/JPY and yield spreads from early 2014 into the first half of 2016.  This may have reflected the adjustment in USD/JPY to the relative pace of QE between the Fed and BoJ.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. WTI on the offers, around $ 70 ahead of US rigs data http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 09:59:47 -0400 Return of Libyan oil and USD rally negate tighter markets. WIT consolidating after a volatile week, as focus shifts to the US drilling report. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) paused the recent sell-off to twelve-day lows and now consolidates in a tight range around the $ 70 mark, as markets await the US rigs count data for the next direction. Despite the stalled selling, the black gold keeps the offered tone intact and remains on track to book a weekly fall of nearly 5 percent, as markets remain weighted down by the ongoing strength in the US dollar versus its six major currencies. Meanwhile, reports that Libya’s Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation (NOC) reopened four export terminals after eastern factions handed over the ports, threatened the prospects of a tighter market and collaborated to declines in the barrel of WTI. Further, slowing Chinese oil demand also continues to undermine the commodity, especially after the latest  Chinese trade data showed that China’s crude oil imports fell for the second month in a row in June. Looking ahead, traders will continue to remain nervous ahead of the US drilling activity report that will be published by Bakers and Hughes oilfields Services Company while markets digest the latest comments by the Russian Energy Minister Novak. WTI Technical Levels: According to Jason Sen at DayTradeIdeas.com, “WTI Crude low just 12 ticks below the best support for the day at 6945/35. The recovery tests first resistance at 7060/70 but we could reach a selling opportunity at 7150/60 today, with stops above 7200. Failure to beat first resistance at 7060/70 risks a retest of strong support at 6945/35. Try longs with stops below 6885. A break lower is expected eventually, although more likely next week than today, to target & Fibonaccisupport at 6825/15.”     Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Russia's Novak: US trade tensions affects oil prices http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 13 Jul 2018 09:47:45 -0400 Continuing with his earlier comments, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak was further noted saying that we will take measures in case of oil market deficit. Additional quotes:    •  If there is a need to increase oil output by more than 1 million bpd, we can discuss it. <br />    •  Does not rule out adjusting oil output as all obligations taken as part of OPEC deal provisional.<br />    •  US trade tension affects oil prices. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.