Bull Trend Analysis Feed http://www.bull-trend.com Bull-trend.com was designed for traders like yourself. We strive to be your number-one resource for timely, accurate and useful forex, futures and commodity quotes, charts, technical opinion, trading analysis and other market commentary. CFM 263 94 http://www.bull-trend.com http://www.bull-trend.com/bk2/img/flogo.jpg EUR/USD Technical Analysis: bearish trend remains intact http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 17:09:05 -0400 EUR/USD is trading below its 50-period simple moving average on the weekly chart.  The RSI, Stochastics and MACD indicators are all bearishly configured suggesting an extension of the bear trend. The EUR/USD is in a strong bear leg. It is currently trading in the 1.1670 region on Friday. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Stochastics and the Moving Average Confluence/Divergence indicators are in bearish mode. The market is trading below the 50-period simple moving average (weekly) suggesting that the previous bull trend has lost momentum.  The next scaling point is likely going to be the 1.1553 swing low established in November 2017. Further down the 1.1450 level can be the next support as it is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the January 2017-February 2018 bull trend. Further down, the 1.1200 level should also provide support as it is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the period mentioned above. The 100 and 200-period simple moving averages (weekly) are also located close to the 1.1500 area which should bring some support. To the upside, resistances are seen at the 1.1928 level which is the 50-period SMA (weekly), the 1.2000 figure and the 1.2154 swing low established in early March.  EUR/USD weekly chart  Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD stays near lows around 1.1660 on US data http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 13:27:09 -0400 The pair remains depressed near 1.1660. The greenback picks up pace above the 94.00 handle. US Durable Goods Orders surprised to the upside in April. The sentiment around the shared currency remains subdued at the end of the week, dragging EUR/USD to the area of multi-month lows in the 1.1660 region. EUR/USD weaker on USD-bid tone, US data The pair deepened its leg lower today following a wave of buying orders around the greenback, while results from the US docket have also lent support to the buck. In fact, US headline Durable Goods Orders contracted at a monthly 1.7%, while Core orders expanded 0.9% inter-month. Later in the session Chief Powell is due to speak in Stockholm, while the U-Mich final reading for the  month of May is also expected. In the meantime, the pair’s downside pressure remains well and sound today, always keeping an eye on Italian politics and USD-dynamics and despite US 10-year yields keep losing momentum. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.49% at 1.1660 and a break below 1.1655 (2018 low May 25) would target 1.1600 (psychological level) en route to1.1553 (monthly low Nov.7). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.1786 (10-day sma) seconded by 1.1829 (high May 22) and finally 1.1879 (21-day sma). Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Eurozone: Growth weakening? - Nomura http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 12:01:31 -0400 Yesterday’s weak PMI prints for May question the thesis that the weather was the primary contributor to weak euro area growth in Q1, according to analysts at Nomura. Key Quotes “We are hesitant about exiting our long euro trades as pricing for ECB hikes next year has been lowered, while ECB rhetoric still appears to be in the direction of normalisation of policy. On top of that, next week we get the May print for inflation, which should see a sharp pick-up. Then on Italian risks, the euro’s correlation to Italian spreads has moved from consistently negative (i.e., higher spreads = lower euro) to more mixed since 2015. This is partly due to ECB measures that limited contagion risks across the bloc, but also the switch in the current account balance from neutral to surplus, which meant that euro-area investor repatriation could swamp any foreign investor outflows during a crisis. Given all this, we’ll wait for next week’s CPI print before deciding whether to exit our long EUR positions.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD under pressure, in YTD lows near 1.1660 http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 11:54:49 -0400 The pair met sellers in the 1.1730/35 band, daily highs. The greenback remains on a firm note, close to the 94.00 mark. US Durable Goods Orders, final U-Mich index next on tap. The selling bias remains well and sound around the European currency at the end of the week, with EUR/USD dropping to fresh multi-month lows in the 1.1670/60 band. EUR/USD looks to US data, USD After the failed bullish attempt to the 1.1730 region, spot met some selling orders and is now recording fresh YTD lows in the vicinity of 1.1660. The bid tone around the buck stays unabated so far this week and takes the US Dollar Index (DXY) to shouting distance from recent multi-month tops around 94.20 recorded earlier in the week. It is worth mentioning that the climb in the buck comes amidst declining yields of the US 10-year note, which are hovering over the 2.96%. In the data space, German IFO figures failed to ignite any lasting optimism in the shared currency, Business Climate and Business Expectations came in below expectations for the month of April, while Current Assessment met initial estimates. In the US docket, Durable Goods Orders and the final print of the Consumer Confidence for the current month are due next followed by the speech by Chief J.Powell in Stockholm. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.44% at 1.1669 and a break below 1.1659 (monthly low Oct. 27 2017) would target 1.1553 (monthly low Nov.7) and finally 1.1500 (psychological level). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.1786 (10-day sma) seconded by 1.1829 (high May 22) and finally 1.1879 (21-day sma). Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/JPY consolidates around mid-109.00s, US data/Powell’s speech awaited http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 11:05:49 -0400    •  Easing geopolitical tensions/softer Tokyo CPI print helps stage a modest rebound.<br />    •  Sudden fall in the US bond yields offset reviving USD demand and capping gains.<br />    •  Investors eye US macro data and Powell’s speech for some fresh impetus. The USD/JPY pair now seems to have entered a consolidation phase and was seen oscillating within a narrow trading range, just below mid-109.00s. The pair stalled this week’s corrective slide from 4-month tops, levels beyond the 111.00 handle, and was being supported by easing geopolitical tensions, which triggered a fresh wave of global risk-on trade.  The same was evident from the prevalent buoyant sentiment across European equity markets and was seen weighing on the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal, helping the pair to snap three consecutive days of losing streak.  Meanwhile, reviving US Dollar demand, coupled with softer Tokyo core CPI print provided an additional boost and lifted the pair to an intraday high level of 109.74 during the Asian session on Friday.  Further gains, however, remained capped, with a sudden fall in the US Treasury bond yields further collaborating towards keeping a lid on any meaningful up-move for the major. Nevertheless, the pair has still managed to hold with modest daily gains but still remains on track to post steep weekly declines, reversing all of the previous week's up-move. Next in focus would be the release of US durable goods orders data, which followed by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech would now be looked upon for meaningful impetus on the last trading day of the week.  Technical levels to watch The 109.00 handle now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken could accelerate the slide towards 108.70-65 horizontal support. On the flip side, momentum beyond 109.75-80 immediate resistance now seems to lift the pair back above the key 110.00 psychological mark towards retesting the very important 200-day SMA barrier near the 110.15-20 region. <br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Saudi EnergyMin: Certainly prepared to adjust policy in June http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 10:04:59 -0400 Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Al-Falih is on the wires now, via Reuters, speaking in Russia about a potential change in policy during the OPEC, non- OPEC June meeting.  Key Points: Certainly prepared to adjust policy in June. The release of supply will be a gradual process. We are aligned with Russia in our views. Need to make sure oil supply is adequate. Can continue to moderate inventories drawdown for the rest of 2018. Oil consumers should be looked at as main concern. Consumers become concerned about potential oil shortages. Both crude benchmarks are seen extending declines on the headlines, with WTI falling 2% below the $ 69.50 support area while Brent drops nearly 1% to $ 77.30. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. JPY: Changing reality - Rabobank http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 09:23:11 -0400 Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, explains that the USD/JPY reached its highest levels since January this week after it had a brief boost to risk appetite, but since then the JPY has reclaimed some ground.  Key Quotes “In Q1 Japanese GDP shrunk 0.6% q/q saar. This was the first contraction in more than two year.” “In April exports grew 7.8% y/y, a little below the market consensus. In volume terms the expansion was a robust 4.6% y/y.  Assuming world growth remains strong, Japanese external demand can be expected to be boosted by demand for products such as manufacturing equipment and motor vehicles.  This, however, has drawn Japan to the attention of US President Trump.  According to the US Census Bureau, in 2017 US trade in goods with Japan culminated in a deficit of USD68.8 bln.” “News that The Trump Administration is looking into the use of national security law to apply tariffs on imported vehicles has not only reinvigorating concerns about the impact of full blown trade war on global growth, but it has specific implications for countries such as Japan with strong auto industries.” “The impact of a rise in trade tensions could be particularly significant for Japan’s economy given the important of external demand. That said, the safe haven function of the JPY suggests that it is likely to strengthen rather than weaken in an environment of worsening risk appetite.  Fears that the planned summit between the US and N.Korea may not take place are also weighing on sentiment.” “Added to international concerns, the JPY may find some additional support from the scandal that has been engulfing the Ministry of Finance.  This week the MoF reportedly admitted that it disposed of documents to cover up talks between officials and a school operator with links to PM Abe’s wife.  The school was given a generous discount on the purchase of state land.” “We are broadly positive on the outlook for the USD, though we see scope for medium-term gains in USD/JPY as limited given the rise in risk aversion. We are forecasting a move to USD/JPY 112 on a 9-12 month view.  In the short-term support is offered by the Ichimoku base line at 109.29.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Gold consolidates overnight strong gains, capped below 200-DMA http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 09:19:54 -0400    •  Easing geopolitical tensions does little to build on build on the overnight momentum.<br />    •  Reviving USD demand/positive US bond yields seemed to cap any further up-move.  Gold seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session and was seen consolidating overnight strong gains to over one-week tops.  The US President Donald Trump's announcement to call off a planned summit in Singapore with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un triggered a wave of global risk-aversion trade on Thursday and boosted the precious metal's safe-haven demand.  Adding to this, a modest US Dollar profit-taking provided an additional boost to the dollar-denominated commodity and further collaborated to overnight strong up-move, back closer to the very important 200-day SMA.  However, North Koreas' measured response, showing the willingness to resolve issues with the US calmed investors' nerves. This combined with reviving USD demand, supported by a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields further contributed towards keeping a lid on any follow-through up-move for the non-yielding yellow metal. Moving ahead, today's release of the US durable goods orders data and a scheduled speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell would now be looked upon for some fresh impetus on the last trading day of the week.  Technical levels to watch Bulls will be eyeing for a clear breakthrough the 200-day SMA hurdle, currently near the $1307 region, above which the metal could head towards testing $1314 intermediate resistance en-route $1321-22 supply zone.  On the flip side, the $1300 handle now seems to have emerged as an immediate support, which if broken might prompt some fresh selling and drag the commodity back towards $1293-92 horizontal support area.<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. WTI: Downside opening up towards $ 69.50 amid OPEC output boost talks http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 09:18:46 -0400 Looks vulnerable amid OPEC, non-OPEC output lift talks, stronger USD adds to the weight. Technical set up also indicate further downside risks, with a test of 0.6950 imminent. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) extends its losing streak into a fourth-day today, as rising worries over the latest report that the OPEC and non-OPEC producers are considering increasing the output by 1 mln bpd, adds to the ongoing sell-off in oil. OPEC and Russia are said to ease supply curbs to offset disruptions in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iranian exports. However, Russia’s Energy Minister Novak declined to comment on the same, saying that all proposals will be discussed in June’s Vienna meeting. Also, adding to weakness in oil prices, the US dollar remains broadly bid following renewed geopolitical concerns surrounding the US and North Korea. Markets now await the US durable goods data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech for fresh dollar trades, which could have a major bearing on the USD-sensitive oil. WTI Technical levels According to Jason Sen, Director at DayTradeIdeas.com “WTI Crude lower as expected but we are now oversold in the short term so could bounce in to the weekend (no guarantees!). HOWEVER ,LONGS ARE TOO RISKY - WE USE THIS BOUNCE TO SELL IN TO SHORTS. A high for the day certainly possible at 7150/60 but above 7190 could see us retest important resistance at 7280/7300. Bulls require a close above 7320 to be back in control next week.” “A correction exactly as predicted with 7060 target hit. A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 7020 IS A BIGGER WEEKLY SELL SIGNAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. Targets: 6960/50, 6925/20, perhaps as far as 6875/65,” Jason adds. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Russia’s Novak: Will discuss oil output boost proposal in June http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 08:48:31 -0400 Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak is on the wires now, via Interfax, making some comments after Reuters quoted sources saying that the OPEC and non-OPEC are discussing increasing oil output by around 1 mbpd. Key Points: Russia will fully implement OPEC and non-OPEC oil pact in May. We will discuss all the proposals in June when asked about possible oil production increase by 1 mln bpd. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD reverses a dip to sub-1.1700 level, recovers early lost ground http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 08:41:24 -0400    •  Reviving USD demand prompts some follow-through selling on Friday.<br />    •  Upbeat German Ifo business survey helps ease the bearish pressure.<br />    •  Traders now eye US macro data and Powell’s speech for fresh impetus. The EUR/USD pair quickly reversed a dip to sub-1.1700 level and recovered nearly 30-pips from session lows.  The pair extended overnight retracement slide and momentarily dipped below the 1.1700 handle during the early European session. A combination of factors helped revive the US Dollar demand and was seen exerting some follow-through selling on Friday. Pyongyang's measured response to the US President Donald Trump's announcement to call off a key summit with North Korea helped ease renewed geopolitical tensions. This coupled with a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields helped the greenback to stall its corrective slide, triggered by dovish sounding FOMC meeting minutes. The pair, however, managed to find some support near the 1.1685 area and quickly rebounded around 20-pips from lows following the release of German Ifo business climate index, which ticked higher to 102.2 in May as compared to 102.1 in April and 102.00 expected. Meanwhile, the current assessment index also bettered expectations and rose to 106.0 in May, offsetting a modest fall in the expectations index. Currently trading around the 1.1705-10 band, traders now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of durable goods orders, which along with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled should produce some meaningful trading opportunities on the last trading day of the week.  Technical levels to watch Any subsequent recovery beyond the 1.1725 immediate resistance might continue to confront some fresh supply near mid-1.1700s, above which the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 1.1800 handle.  On the flip side, the 1.1685 region might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken now seems to pave the way for an extension of the pair's near-term bearish trajectory.<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Bitcoin price analysis: BTC/USD resumes downslide to test $7,400; German bank, Deutsche Boerse considers cryptocurrency trading services http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 08:30:37 -0400 The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. “We want to understand the volatility and make sure clients are in line and make sure regulators are in line,” said Tessler, CEO of Deutsche Boerse Bitcoin price attacked the resistance level at $7,600, but the upside was limited below $7,650. The 200 SMA offered resistance leading to a trend reversal that has seen BTC/USD break below $7,500 and is currently testing the short-term support level at $7,400. The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Moreover, the 100 SMA is offering resistance to the upside, while the gap between the moving averages is widening to signal that the sellers have the upper hand. The RSI on the 15’ timeframe chart has retracted below the 30 mark, while the Stochastic is way deep in the oversold region which could mean that the sellers are nearing exhaustion and the buyers could find an entry. An upside breakout past the 100 SMA ($7,500) could test the key resistance at $7,600 (200 SMA). However, BTC/USD could still be in the danger of another slide and this time the target on the downside would be $7,200. The CEO of Deutsche Boerse, Jeffrey Tessler is considering adopting digital assets. The German bank becomes one among the many financial institutions interested in cryptocurrencies and the blockchain technology. The digital assets offer lower cost of transacting while still maintaining a peer-to-peer platform. Tessler said in an event held in London: “Before we move towards the Bitcoin market, we want to make sure we understand the underlying transaction which isn’t the easiest thing to do.” He added, “We want to understand the volatility and make sure clients are in line and make sure regulators are in line.” The cryptocurrency market is volatile at the moment but having banking institution with interest in the space speaks a lot about how far the market has come. Moreover, it could mean more growth for the virtual currencies especially when it comes to adoption into the financial sector. BTC/USD 15’ chart     BEST BROKERS TO TRADE CRYPTO Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD: Bullish tinge, but hard to be optimistic longer term http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 07:15:00 -0400 A minor corrective rally could be on the cards, the EUR/USD technical charts indicate. Italy uncertainty lingers, central bank divergence favors the EUR bears. The EUR/USD created a bullish inside-day bullish inverted hammer candle on Thursday, signaling the sell-off from the April 17 high of 1.2414 has run out of steam.  A positive follow-through (i.e. a close today above 1.1750) would confirm a short-term bullish reversal. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has been showing oversold conditions since May 2. Hence, the pair could find acceptance above 1.1750 today and may rise even further if the US durable goods figure, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, disappoints expectations. However, the probability that the EUR will post big gains after bullish reversal is low as Italian uncertainty lingers. The ratings agency Standard Poor’s has warned that the ‘minibot’ plan being prepared by anti-euro Lega nationalists and the Left Five Star Movement would establish a parallel currency system that could spook the financial markets. Further, the ECB minutes released yesterday showed the central bank is in no hurry to change its current monetary policy stance. Meanwhile, the Fed is seen raising rates three more times this year, according to a Reuters poll. The growing monetary policy divergence favors the US dollar. EUR/USD Technical Levels Bakinv Chief Analyst Eric Abdelnour says the unattractive EUR will continue to remain under pressure. Support levels: 1.1695 1.1660 1.1620 Resistance levels: 1.1745 1.1790 1.1830   TREND INDEX OB/OS INDEX VOLATILY INDEX 15M Bearish Oversold Shrinking 1H Bearish Oversold Shrinking 4H Bearish Neutral Shrinking 1D Bearish Oversold Low 1W Bearish Oversold Shrinking Updated May 25, 04:15 GMT   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. OPEC, non-OPEC discuss increasing oil output by around 1 mbpd - sources http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 07:13:10 -0400 According to the latest news flashing on the wires, quoting sources familiar to the development, OPEC and non-OPEC members are said to have discussed increasing oil output by 1 million bpd but the final decision is expected to be taken in June. Additional headlines:    •  Talks between Saudi, Russia, UAE energy ministers this week will discuss how to bring record high compliance with supply curbs down to 100%.<br>    •  Compliance with supply cuts in April for OPEC, non-OPEC was 152%. The market reacted negatively to the headlines, with WTI crude oil prices extending the corrective slide and falling to over 2-week lows, below mid-$70.00/barrel.  Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR futures: bearish mood intact http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 07:00:57 -0400 In light of preliminary figures for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions by more than 2K contracts on Thursday from Friday’s final 529,872 contracts. In the same line, volume dropped for the first time after three consecutive builds, this time around 123.7K contracts. EUR/USD poised for further pullbacks Thursday’s positive session in EUR/USD has been against the backdrop of shrinking open interest and volume, removing tailwinds for a more sustainable bull run. Spot thus remains vulnerable and the door stays wide open for further retracements in the near term, which should find initial support at YTD low at 1.1676. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. When are the German IFO surveys and how they could affect EUR/USD? http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 06:50:36 -0400 The German IFO Business Climate Overview The German IFO surveys for May are lined up for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to come in a tad weaker at 102.0 in May. The Current Assessment sub-index is also seen lower at 105.5 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to ease to 98.5 in the reported month. Deviation impact on EUR/USD Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.  How could affect EUR/USD? The spot could drop back to test the multi-month lows at 1.1676 on a bigger-than-expected drop in IFO figures while the EUR/USD pair could swing back towards 1.1750 on a positive surprise. According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at Bakinv, “A convincing break below the 1.1700-1.1690 region now seems to pave the way for an extension of the slide towards testing 1.1580 support with some intermediate stoppages near 1.1660 horizontal level and the 1.1600 handle. On the upside, recovery attempts might continue to confront some fresh supply near mid-1.1700s, above which a bout of short-covering now seems to assist the pair to head back towards reclaiming the 1.1800 round figure mark.” However, the reaction to the data is likely to be short-lived, as the sentiment around the US dollar price-action as well as the risk trends will remain the main driver for the major. Key Notes Forex Today: Yen corrects lower in Asia, German IFO, UK growth figures eyed EUR/USD weaker, challenges 1.1700 ahead of IFO European FX Outlook: German Ifo business climate and first revision of UK GDP headline About the German IFO Business Climate This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD faces further downside pressure - Danske Bank http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 06:48:30 -0400 Arne Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, gives his views on the recent price action in the global markets. Key Quotes “Currency markets felt the pain of another risk-off session with CHF and JPY in demand again and some selling pressure in Scandies from the renewed geopolitical flaring up due President Trump’s proposal on automotive tariffs and the US-North Korean summit cancellation”. “However, the euro stood up decently against lingering worries over Italy; for EUR/USD the recent loss of momentum in US yields has clearly helped avoid testing new lows in the cross. Until more clarity regarding actual Italian policy implementation is obtained, an Italy risk premium will likely continue to weigh on the single currency”. “Our Short-Term Financial Model for EUR/USD illustrates that the surge in Italian yields relative to Germany and the sustained uptick in US yields largely justifies the move towards 1.17. Lower levels in the cross could be tested, but we have a hard time seeing November lows (watch out for 7-Nov low of 1.1554) being broken”. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD technicals still suggest a test of 1.1860/1.1980 - Commerzbank http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 06:39:48 -0400 According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, technicals are suggesting a potential visit to the 1.1860/1.1980 band. Key Quotes “EUR/USD is holding around 1.1700. We note the 13 count which suggests caution and the daily RSI has not confirmed the new low. The market stays immediately offered below the accelerated downtrend at 1.1782 but will have very little impact while below the 1.1996 14th May high. Currently the Elliott wave count is suggesting recovery to 1.1860/1.1980”. “Below 1.1675 will target the 1.1616 May 2016 high and then the 1.1553 November low with the 200 week ma at 1.1442 our ultimate goal”. “The 200 day ma at 1.2021 guards the 1.2092 September 2017 high and the 1.2155 March low and while capped here we maintain an immediate bearish bias”. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/JPY trims early recovery gains, back below mid-109.00s http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 06:37:42 -0400    •  Easing geopolitical tensions/softer Tokyo CPI helps stage a goodish rebound.<br />    •  Reviving USD demand/US bond yields provides an additional boost. <br />    •  Cautious tone underpins JPY’s safe-haven demand and seemed to cap gains. The USD/JPY pair trimmed some of its early recovery gains and has now retreated back below mid-109.00s. The pair stalled its corrective slide from over 4-month tops set on Monday, levels beyond the 111.00 handle, and staged a goodish intraday rebound from 2-1/2 week lows touched in the previous session.  The pair on Thursday remained under some intense selling pressure and dropped to sub-109.00 level amid resurfacing geopolitical tensions after the US President Donald Trump called off a planned summit with North Korea. Investors' fears were calmed after N. Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan said that the isolated nation was still open to resolving issues with the US and prompted some short-covering bounce.     •  North Korea willing to meet with the U.S. at any time This coupled with some renewed US Dollar buying interest, supported by an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, provided an additional boost and lifted the pair to an intraday high level of 109.74.  The Japanese Yen was further weighed down by softer than expected Tokyo Core CPI print, coming in to show an increase of 0.5% y/y in May as compared to 0.6% rise recorded in the previous month. The recovery move, however, lacked strong follow-through traction, with the prevalent cautious sentiment around equity markets still underpinning the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal and keeping a lid on any strong gains for the major.  Technical outlook Omkar Godbole, Analyst and Editor at Bakinv writes, "the pair looks set to test immediate support at 108.81 - 38.2% Fib R of 104.63-111.40 and could possibly drop further to 108.64. A daily close below 108.64 would confirm a bullish-to-bearish trend change." "On the higher side, only a daily close above the 200-day MA of 110.18 would abort the bearish view," he further added.<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Gold clocks 10-day high above $1300 http://www.bull-trend.com/ Commodities http://www.bull-trend.com/ Fri, 25 May 2018 06:30:00 -0400 Gold moved above $1,300, possibly due to risk aversion in the financial markets.  The corrective rally could be short-lived if US stocks regain poise.  Currently, gold (XU/USD) is trading at $1,302/Oz, having clocked a ten-day high of $1,306 in the overnight trade. The yellow metal picked up a bid yesterday, possibly due to renewed geopolitical tensions and the resulting risk aversion in the equity markets. The US President Trump's decision to cancel the North Korea summit pushed both nations back into crisis mode. Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 75 points or 0.30 percent, stoking demand for the classic safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen. Further, the sell-off in the European banking stocks may have also put a bid under the safe haven yellow metal. Prices may fall back below the $1,300 mark if the major European indices trade on a positive note. The SP 500 futures, up 0.30 percent, are already pointing to risk reset. Gold Technical Levels A move above the 100-hour MA hurdle of $1,304 would open up upside towards resistance at $1,308 (200-day MA). A close above that level would confirm a short-term bullish reversal and allow the rally to $$1,325 (May 11 high). On the downside, break below $1,300 (psychological support May 1 low) could yield a re-test of recent lows seen in the range of $1,287-$1,282.   TREND INDEX OB/OS INDEX VOLATILY INDEX 15M Bullish Neutral Shrinking 1H Bearish Neutral Low 4H Bearish Overbought Expanding 1D Bullish Neutral Expanding 1W Bearish Neutral Low Updated May 25, 03:30 GMT   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.