Bull Trend Analysis Feed http://www.bull-trend.com Bull-trend.com was designed for traders like yourself. We strive to be your number-one resource for timely, accurate and useful forex, futures and commodity quotes, charts, technical opinion, trading analysis and other market commentary. CFM 263 94 http://www.bull-trend.com http://www.bull-trend.com/bk2/img/flogo.jpg GBP/USD - Chart-driven pullback? http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 09:45:00 -0500 GBP/USD fades spike to 1.40. Various intraday divergences suggest caution. Elevated levels unjustified as per widening US-UK yield spread. Having clocked a fresh post-Brexit vote of 1.4003 in Asia, GBP/USD is trading on the back foot in Europe. As of writing, Cable is trading at 1.3965 levels. The pullback appears to have been driven by technical factors. Commerzbank Analyst Karen Jones calls for caution, courtesy of various intraday divergences on intraday charts. Also,  13 counts on the 60 minute, 240 minute, daily and especially the one seen on the weekly chart could make it difficult for GBP bulls to scale 1.40. Further, the recent rally is not backed by the widening 10-year US-UK yield differential. The spread clocked 10-month high of 130 basis points this week. So, the pair may continue to lose altitude. That said, the greenback is still the most hated currencies, hence dips could be short-lived, especially if the EUR/USD continues its ascent. GBP/USD Technical Levels Haresh Menghani, Editor, and Analyst at Bakinv writes, "the near-term overstretched conditions warrant some consolidation before an extension of the near-term strong bullish trajectory. Hence, any subsequent up-move beyond the 1.40 handle might now confront some fresh supply near the 1.4030 region. A clear break through the mentioned barrier could pave the way for a test of 1.41 round figure mark, which could now act as a near-term ceiling.  On the flip side, any meaningful retracement is likely to find immediate support near the 1.3940-35 region, below which the pair could correct back below the 1.3900 handle and head back towards testing 1.3855-50 support area, marked by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's post-Brexit slump.   TREND INDEX OB/OS INDEX VOLATILY INDEX 15M Bearish Neutral High 1H Bearish Neutral Low 4H Neutral Expanding 1D Overbought High 1W Overbought Expanding Updated Jan 23, 07:45 GMT   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Oil rises 0.4% on healthy economic growth, OPEC-Russia output curbs http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 08:27:19 -0500 Oil benchmarks are on the rise this Tuesday morning in Europe, possibly due to IMF's upbeat global growth forecasts and due to ongoing output curbs by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other major producers. As of writing, WTI oil is up 30 cents or 0.46 percent at $63.86/barrel. Brent oil is up 28 cents or 0.40 percent at $69.30/barrel. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised up global growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 to 3.9 percent. The 0.2 percentage point increase seems to have put a bid under oil today as higher growth means more demand for oil and other commodities. Also helping oil is falling inventories due to OPEC-Russia output cuts deal and seasonally colder weather. Reuters report quotes BNP Paribas as saying that, "economic outlook and the seasonally colder weather has led to firmer oil demand growth, facilitating the continuation of a fall in oil inventories toward OPEC’s recent five-year average target." That said, gains could be capped around $70.00 on fears that rising US shale output would overshadow OPEC-led oil output cut deal. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Are the ECB's choices understandable? - Natixis http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 08:01:22 -0500 Patrick Artus, Research Analyst at Natixis, explains that the euro-zone economy is improving markedly, the unemployment rate is nearing the structural unemployment rate and deflation is no longer a threat, and yet the ECB is keeping a highly expansionary monetary policy in place. Key Quotes “Is this choice understandable? We do not believe that it truly results from a desire to lift inflation to close to 2%, now that deflation is no longer a threat; It may result from the idea that even when the economy is close to full employment, demand stimulus can have positive effects: increasing the participation rate, encouraging companies to make productivity gains; It may also result from concern at what could ensue should the bond bubble burst in the euro zone: crisis among institutional investors, public finance crisis.” “Conclusion: It is not so easy to understand the ECB Why is the ECB keeping an expansionary monetary policy in place when the euro-zone economy is improving? - We do not believe that it is only to lift inflation; - It may be to try and lift the participation rate or labour productivity by stimulating demand at full employment; - It may be to prevent the risk of insolvency from materialising should the bond bubble burst.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. AUD/USD plummets to lows, retreats farther below 0.80 handle http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:56:48 -0500 For the third straight session, the AUD/USD pair failed to breakthrough 0.8030-40 supply zone and witnessed a sharp retracement of around 60-pips from session tops.  Escalating risk of a 'trade war' between the US and China, following a tariff announcement from the US, was eventually seen weighing heavily on the China-proxy Australian Dollar since the Asian session on Tuesday.  Adding to this, a modest US Dollar rebound, supported by the US Senate vote to advance a three-week funding bill to reopen the federal government, further collaborated to an intense selling pressure around the major.  Meanwhile, a subdued action around copper prices and a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields did little to lend any support to the commodity-linked/higher-yielding currency and stall the pair's sharp slide to the 0.7970 region. In absence of any major market moving economic releases, the pair remains at the mercy of USD price dynamics, with a follow-through retracement, led by some additional long-unwinding trade, now looking a distinct possibility. Technical levels to watch A follow-through retracement below 0.7960 level, leading to a subsequent weakness towards 0.7640-35 strong horizontal support, might now drag the pair back towards the 0.7900 handle. On the flip side, any attempted up-move now seems to confront fresh supply near the 0.8000 handle and subsequent appreciating move might continue to be capped at the 0.8030-40 supply zone.  Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Russia's Dmitriev sees Russia-OPEC deal lasting for years http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:54:59 -0500 Comments crossed the wires, via Reuters, from the Russian Direct Investment Fund head Kirill Dmitriev, as he delivered a speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. Key Points: Sees Russia-OPEC deal lasting for years. The OPEC extension deal helped oil producers to generate $600 bn extra revenues in the past year. The deal has helped to unlock political and investment dialogue between Moscow and Riyadh. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/GBP: Substantial weakness - Danske Bank http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:48:28 -0500 EUR/GBP dropped below 0.88 yesterday to a new one-month low at 0.87621 and the move lower was not driven by any specific Brexit-related news or data releases and thus GBP performance seems to be a continuation of a gradual repricing of Brexit risk premium, suggests Chief Analyst, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen at Danske Bank. Key Quotes “We remain bullish on GBP over the medium term, targeting 0.85 in 12M but stress that risks are that a break lower in the cross could come sooner than our forecast indicates, and that the cross might break considerably lower.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. When are the German ZEW surveys and how could they affect EUR/USD? http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:41:21 -0500 The German ZEW surveys Overview The ZEW will release its Economic Sentiment Index for the next six months for Germany, as well as the Current Situation Index at 10 GMT in the EU session later today, reflecting institutional investors’ opinions. The headline economic sentiment index is seen edging higher to 17.8 in January after a 17.4 reading registered in December. While the current situation sub-index is also expected to improve to 89.8 versus 89.3 booked previously. How could affect EUR/USD? A positive headline reading may offer fresh impetus to the EUR bulls, sending the EUR/USD back above 1.2275 levels. However, if the readings disappoint, the rate could drop back towards the 1.22 handle. Haresh Menghani, Analyst at Bakinv notes: “A convincing move beyond the 1.2300 handle would mark a fresh bullish breakout and with short-term indicators still holding in bullish territory, the pair seems all set to test 1.2355-60 supply zone before eventually darting towards the 1.2400 handle.”  “On the flip side, the 1.2220-10 region might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might drag the pair back towards the lower end of its one-week old trading range support, near the 1.2175-65 zone,” Haresh adds. Key notes German ZEW survey to continue to edge higher in January - TDS EUR/USD: 1.2275 – a tough nut to crack ahead of German ZEW? About the German ZEW Surveys The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish). Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. BoJ: No fireworks offered - Danske Bank http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:40:51 -0500 Analysts at Danske Bank note that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its monetary policy unchanged this morning as widely expected and USD/JPY initially fell 35 pips from 110.90 to 110.65 as the BoJ tweaked its wording on inflation in the outlook report. Key Quotes “It was the first time in 14 meetings including the Outlook Report that the BoJ did not revise its inflation forecast lower. We still think the BoJ is too optimistic on inflation however, and that it will have to revise its inflation forecast lower this year. In our main scenario we expect the BoJ to keep its policy unchanged, maintaining the short-term policy interest rate at -0.1% and the 10Y Japanese government bond (JGB) yield at 0% over our 12M fo recast horizon, assuming BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda is reappointed when his term ends in April. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/JPY trims losses ahead of Kuroda s presser http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:30:00 -0500 USD/JPY trims losses to trade at 110.80. BOJ keeps rates unchanged, changed the language on inflation. Focus on Kuroda's press conference. USD/JPY dropped to 110.54 after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept rates unchanged as expected but sounded slightly optimistic about inflation expectations. The central bank said, "inflation expectations are moving sideways" as opposed to previous quarterly report, which took note of weakness inflation  expectations. This change in language may have pushed Yen higher. That said, the spot has trimmed losses to trade at 110.80, given the expectations that BOJ's Kuroda will stress bank's resolve to maintain ultra easy monetary policy for some time. Yen may rise sharply across the board if Kuroda talks about the costs of running easy monetary policy and/or sounds upbeat on inflation. USD/JPY Technical Levels A move above 111.03 (38.2% Fib R of Sep-Nov rally) would open doors for 111.41 (38.2% Fib R of Jan. 8 high - Jan. 17 low) and 111.48 (Jan. 18 high). On the other hand, a breach of support at 110.49 (Jan. 19 low) would open downside towards 110.19 (Jan. 17 low) and 110.00 (zero levels).   TREND INDEX OB/OS INDEX VOLATILY INDEX 15M Bullish Neutral High 1H Bullish Neutral Expanding 4H Bearish Neutral Low 1D Bearish Neutral High 1W Bullish Neutral Low Updated Jan 23, 05:30 GMT   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. AUD/USD supported by commodity prices - Westpac http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:22:16 -0500 AUD/USD probed above 0.80 last week for the first time since September 2017 and one source of support has been commodity prices, according to Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac. Key Quotes “Westpac’s index of Australia’s export-weighted commodity price basket has bounced around 5% since mid-December, though iron ore prices have pulled back in recent sessions.” “Australia’s data momentum this year has been largely positive too – at least after the return to trade deficits. Retail sales, consumer sentiment, building and home loan approvals and now employment have all been strong. Indeed Australian employment growth has accelerated from 0.9%yr in February to 3.3%yr in December. In comparison, the US’s hot job market grew only 1.4% in 2017.” “Little wonder then that money markets have become more confident about the RBA raising the cash rate this year. A hike to 1.75% is fully priced by November, plus a 50% chance of another hike by Feb 2019. Yet global yields have marched higher together over the past month, including an extra 25bp or so on the US 2 year T-note. As a result, the Aussie’s traditional yield premium over the US dollar has been effectively wiped out in the cash rate-sensitive 2 year area.” “This suggests AUD/USD has been heavily reliant on broad-based USD weakness to drive its 4% gain over the past month.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/CAD edges higher, back above mid-1.2400s http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:20:02 -0500 The USD/CAD pair regained some positive traction on Tuesday and recovered part of previous session's retracement slide. The US Dollar managed to recover some lost ground after the US Senate voted to advance a three-week funding bill to reopen the federal government after a three-day shutdown and provided a minor boost to the major. However, a modest retracement in the US Treasury bond yields, coupled with the prevailing positive trading sentiment around crude oil prices, which tends to benefit the commodity-linked Loonie, might now contribute towards limiting any further gains.  Looking at the broader picture, the pair has been consolidating between the 1.24 level on the bottom and the 1.25 level on the top, post-BOC trading range. Hence, it would prudent to wait for a decisive break through the mentioned band before committing to the pair's next leg of directional move.  There isn't any major market-moving economic data due on Tuesday and hence, the pair seems more likely to extend its consolidative price action ahead of this week's important US macro releases.  Technical levels to watch The key 1.25 psychological mark might continue to act as an immediate strong hurdle, above which a bout of short-covering could lift the pair towards 1.2545 horizontal supply zone en-route 100-day SMA barrier near the 1.2585 region. On the flip side, weakness below the 1.2435 immediate support could get extended towards the 1.2400 handle, which if broken is likely to accelerate the fall back towards the 1.2360-55 strong support.<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. BOJ's Kuroda - BOJ targets Yield Curve and not the amount of bond purchases http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:18:18 -0500 Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda, while speaking at the BOJ presser, stressed that the central bank aims to keep the 10-year government bond yield near zero percent and does not target a specific amount of JGB purchases, i.e. the bank would buy more bonds when there is upward pressure on yields and vice versa.      Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. BoJ's Kuroda: Sticking with 2% price target will help stabilize currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:05:16 -0500 More comments still flowing in from the BoJ Governor Kuroda, as he continues to speak at the post-policy presser. Sticking with 2% price target will help stabilize currencies. Says that 2% target is the global standard. Oil prices, technology advancement, globalization among factors behind global disinflation. Wages and prices move in parallel in Japan. Without wages, there's no price rises; vice-versa. Wage growth is needed for sustainable inflation. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. ECB is forced to buy more bonds of high-debt nations - Zew study http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 07:03:55 -0500 A study published by Germany's ZEW institute on Monday showed the European Central Bank (ECB) is forced to buy more debt from countries such as France, Spain, and Italy due to a shortage of bonds from less-indebted nations like Germany and the Baltic States.  The adjustment marks a departure from ECB's commitment to buy in proportion to nations' share of its capital.  Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/JPY swings back beyond 111.00 on BoJ's Kuroda http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 06:57:42 -0500 Headed back to 111.70 – key resistance? BoJ Kuroda sees no change needed to its current policy. MonPol divergence to underpin. The USD/JPY rebound from near 110.50 levels gained traction, following BoJ Governor Kuroda’s dovish remarks, now pushing the rates further northwards in a bid to test yesterday’s high of 111.22.  The Yen lost footing and gave up the entire gains spurred by the BoJ’s optimistic remarks about inflation expectations while the Japanese central bank left its monetary policy settings unchanged at its meeting held earlier today. The renewed sell-off in the Yen is mainly triggered by the BoJ Chief Kuroda’s comments, after he said that the BoJ is not in a situation to consider an exit from QQE, adding that the need to maintain powerful monetary easing policy still persists. BoJ’s Kuroda: BoJ not in a situation to consider exit from QQE BOJ's Kuroda plays down Yen strength In the day ahead, markets will continue to digest Kuroda’s speech while broader markets sentiment and USD price-action will play a key role in absence of any significant macro news from the US docket. The USD index rises +0.10% to 90.24, extending the bounce on the back of an end to the US government shutdown. USD/JPY Technical Levels A move above 111.22 (Monday’s high) would open doors for 111.41 (38.2% Fib R of Jan. 8 high - Jan. 17 low) and 111.48 (Jan. 18 high). On the other hand, a breach of support at 110.49 (Jan. 19 low) would open downside towards 110.19 (Jan. 17 low) and 110.00 (zero levels). Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. AUD: Iron ore deficiency could start to kick in - ING http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 06:57:19 -0500 until then, we expect external factors to continue determining AUD's near-term direction.” “On that note, a channel of recent AUD support – rising iron ore prices – looks set to revert; our commodities team see the rally up to US$75/t as overdone now and expect a return to US$55/t by 2Q18. An added headwind is the spectre of US steel tariffs – President Trump now has the Commerce Department’s Section 232 report and has 90 days to decide on recommended policy actions (the aluminium report will be released on Monday). Given that this could occur anytime, the unpredictability may act as a limiting factor for AUD bulls in the absence of any other major catalysts.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Gold holds steady above $1330, inches back closer to 4-month tops http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 06:54:25 -0500 Gold traded with a positive bias through the Asian session on Tuesday and inched back closer to last week's over 4-month highs.  With the Senators agreeing to end the government shutdown on Monday, a modest US Dollar rebound was largely offset by weaker US Treasury bond yields and remained supportive of the up-move for the non-yielding yellow metal.  Even the ongoing upsurge in global equities, which tends to influence demand for traditional safe-haven assets, and firming expectations for a March Fed rate hike move did little to stall the precious metal's uptick to the $1337-38 region.  Meanwhile, the commodity also seems to have benefitted from the latest BOJ monetary policy decision, wherein Governor Kuroda was noted saying that the central bank is not in a situation to consider exiting from QQE.  Market participants now await the outcome of the European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday, which would provide some fresh clues over any future shifts in the bank's monetary policy and provide some fresh impetus.  Apart from the central bank meetings, this week's key US macro data, including the advance fourth-quarter GDP growth number, would also play a key role in determining the metal's next leg of directional move. Technical levels to watch Immediate resistance is pegged near the $1340 region, above which the commodity is likely to dart towards $1348 hurdle en-route 2017 yearly highs resistance near the $1357 level. On the flip side, $1334 area now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might prompt some profit-taking slide back towards $1326 horizontal support. <br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. BOJ's Kuroda plays down Yen strength http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 06:53:31 -0500 Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda is not particularly worried about Yen strength.  Key quotes Do not see Yen rise in particular as Dollar falls stem from Euro strength.  Sees no difficulty in conducting JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) market ops.  Day-to-day JGB operations do not indicate future course of monetary policy as the size of bond purchase changes depending on the market.  Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. BOJ's Kuroda - No need to change 2% inflation target http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 06:46:59 -0500 Comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Kuroda crossing the wires via LiveSquawk- BOJ wants to continue easing firmly for CPI 2 percent goal. NO need to change the 2 percent inflation target. No need to adjust yield curve control target simply due to rise in inflation expectations.  Japan economy to continue growing above potential Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. GBP: Searching for a positive catalyst - ING http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Tue, 23 Jan 2018 06:43:08 -0500 Analysts at ING suggest that the pound is touching distance away from their long-held conviction call of 1.40 against the US dollar in 1Q18 – but even they're slightly surprised by the speed at which we have got there. Key Quotes “We do think there is more upside potential for GBP in 2018 – but for the next wave of appreciation to kick in, we'll require a positive GBP-specific catalyst. We continue to cite 2 non-mutually exclusive potential sources: (1) positive UK data surprises and (2) actual Brexit progress in the form of a 'gentlemen's agreement' over a transition deal. On the former, this week's UK jobs report (Wed) will give us some further clarity on wage inflation; any positive surprises here would give BoE hawks some confidence that underlying price pressures are moving in the right direction. The first release of 4Q UK GDP (Fri) is expected to show 0.4% QoQ growth - again BoE sentiment will be sensitive to any surprises here.” “With markets barely pricing in one BoE rate hike in 2018 - and only 50bps of tightening in over a 2-year horizon - we still see the potential for a steeper UK rate curve to lift GBP higher. Timing this is key: in the absence of any supportive data, positive Brexit headlines will help to steepen the curve. This, however, seems like a February story - with PM May not expected to outline the UK's position on a future trade deal with the EU until the middle of next month.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.