Bull Trend Analysis Feed http://www.bull-trend.com Bull-trend.com was designed for traders like yourself. We strive to be your number-one resource for timely, accurate and useful forex, futures and commodity quotes, charts, technical opinion, trading analysis and other market commentary. CFM 263 94 http://www.bull-trend.com http://www.bull-trend.com/bk2/img/flogo.jpg EUR/USD unfazed near 1.1770 on Draghi http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 14:25:02 -0500    •  Draghi says economic expansion remains solid and broad-based.<br />    •  Underlying inflationary pressure still subdued.  The EUR/USD pair stalled its mid-European session retracement from levels beyond the 1.1800 handle and is now looking to stabilize around the 1.1770-75 region. The pair found some support after the ECB President Mario Draghi, during his testimony before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, reiterated that economic expansion remains solid and broad-based.  The initial positive remarks, however, were largely negated by his comments that inflation dynamics are yet to show convincing signs of a self-sustained trend as the underlying inflationary pressures are still subdued. Draghi reassured that ECB measures will preserve the current financing conditions and ensure ample degree of necessary monetary stimulus. In absence of any fresh hawkish signals, Draghi's comments did little to provide any fresh bullish impetus to the major, with the pair now struggling to regain traction and holding with nominal daily losses.  Meanwhile, the market had a muted reaction to the German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier's statement the parties should reconsider willingness to form a government to avoid a fresh election. Technical outlook Eric Abdelnour, American Chief Analyst at Bakinv writes: "Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the post-London's opening momentum eased, as the pair was unable to settle above 1.1790, the 23.6% retracement of its latest rally, now struggling around a bearish 20 SMA, and with technical indicators flat around their mid-lines, indicating a limited downward scope. As commented on a previous update, the pair would need to advance beyond the 1.1820/30 price zone to gain upward traction, while the main support now is 1.1745, en route to the 1.1700 figure."<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Draghi Speech: Inflation dynamics have yet to show convincing signs of a self-sustained upward trend http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 14:06:21 -0500 The European Central Bank's President Mario Draghi continues to deliver his prepared remarks at ECON Hearing of European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium, with key quotes (via Reuters), found below. Inflation dynamics have yet to show convincing signs of a self-sustained upward trend. Underlying inflation pressures are still subdued as labour market slack remains significant. ECB measures will preserve the current financing conditions and ensure the ample degree of monetary stimulus that is still necessary. Key notes Draghi: Positive outlook for the euro area economy - ANZ. Last week ECB President Draghi reiterated the positive outlook for the euro area economy citing deleveraging, increasingly endogenous growth and signs that the economy is becoming more resilient to shocks, as positive factors for the outlook, explains the research team at ANZ. EUR/USD fails to build on recovery beyond 1.18 handle. The EUR/USD pair failed to build on the early European session bullish spike and has now retreated around 30-35 pips from session tops. About Mario Draghi The European Central Bank's president Mario Draghi was born in 1947 in Rome, Italy. Graduated of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Draghi became the president of the European Central Bank in 2011. As part of his job in the Governing Council he gives press conferences in the back of how the ECB observes the current European economy. President's comments may determine positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term. Usually, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish)”. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Draghi Speech: Economic expansion remains solid and broad-based in the euro area http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 14:03:51 -0500 The European Central Bank's President Mario Draghi is delivering his prepared remarks at ECON Hearing of European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium, with key quotes (via Reuters), found below. Economic expansion remains solid and broad-based across countries and sectors in the euro area. Business investment also remains on an upswing, aided by improvements in corporate profitability. The “well past” condition that governs the policy rate horizon lays out a critical enabling factor for asset purchases to have their full impact. Key notes Draghi: Positive outlook for the euro area economy - ANZ. Last week ECB President Draghi reiterated the positive outlook for the euro area economy citing deleveraging, increasingly endogenous growth and signs that the economy is becoming more resilient to shocks, as positive factors for the outlook, explains the research team at ANZ. EUR/USD fails to build on recovery beyond 1.18 handle. The EUR/USD pair failed to build on the early European session bullish spike and has now retreated around 30-35 pips from session tops. About Mario Draghi The European Central Bank's president Mario Draghi was born in 1947 in Rome, Italy. Graduated of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Draghi became the president of the European Central Bank in 2011. As part of his job in the Governing Council he gives press conferences in the back of how the ECB observes the current European economy. President's comments may determine positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term. Usually, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish)”.   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. German President Steinmeier: Parties should reconsider coalition http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 13:50:06 -0500 In a scheduled statement, the German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that the country faces unparalleled situation in history and parties should reconsider willingness to form government to avoid fresh election. Key quotes:    •  Will hold talks with some parties on coalition<br />    •  German parties shouldn't return mandate to voters Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Gold bounces off lows, still in red below $1295 http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 13:40:05 -0500    •  Remains near one-month highs.<br />    •  Modest USD strength capping gains.<br />    •  Fading safe-haven demand creates additional headwind. Gold reversed its early corrective slide to $1290 level and has now moved back within striking distance of Friday's one-month tops.  A goodish US Dollar rebound, primarily led by a sell-off in the shared currency after German Chancellor Angela Merkel's failure to form a three-way coalition government, prompted some profit taking at the start of a new trading week.  However, concern about an investigation into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 US presidential election and uncertainty over the US tax reforms, coupled with negative tone around the US Treasury bond yields helped limit deeper losses.  Meanwhile, some initial signs of stability returning back into global financial markets, as depicted by a strong recovery in the European equity markets, did little to boost the precious metal's safe-haven appeal and now seems to be only factor collaborating towards keeping a lid on any additional up-move. With an empty US economic docket, the US bond yield dynamics and broader market risk sentiment would continue to be key determinants of the commodity's momentum through the NY trading session on Monday. Technical levels to watch On the upside, the $1295-97 region remains immediate strong resistance, which if conquered could lift the metal beyond the $1300 handle towards Oct. monthly highs resistance near $1306 level. Meanwhile, on the downside, $1290 level now seems to have emerged as immediate support, below which the commodity could extend the corrective slide towards $1284 intermediate support en-route 100-day SMA support near the $1280 region.<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/JPY struggles to find direction, trades in tight range above 112 http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 13:29:21 -0500 A lack of fundamental data releases keeps the market volatility low. Global stock indexes point to a neutral market sentiment on Monday. Markets ignore Japanese trade figures. On the first trading day of the week, the USD/JPY pair is having a difficult time determining its next short-term direction. Following Friday's sharp sell-off, the pair is moving in a 30-pip range on Monday and was last seen trading at 112.15, where it was up only 5 pips on the day. Japanese trade data failed to meet market estimates In the first trading hour of the week, the data from Japan showed that total merchandise trade surplus on a yearly basis dropped to ¥285.4 billion in October from ¥667.7 billion in September. Exports expanded by 14% while imports increased by 18.9% for the same period, both reading missing the market expectations. However, there was no apparent market reaction to the data.  On the other hand, after starting the day with a bullish gap, the US Dollar Index, once again, lost its bullish momentum before testing the critical 94 handle and erased its early gains to turn flat near the 93.60 mark. At the moment, the index is at 93.65, up 0.05% on the day. Investors seem hesitant to add to their USD positions as the tax bill uncertainty remains on the back of their minds. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill next week following the Thanksgiving break. In the meantime, major equity indexes in the U.S. are pointing to a mixed opening on Monday, suggesting that the market sentiment won't be providing a fresh catalyst to the pair either. The pair is likely to stay in its recent range for the remainder of the day. Technical outlook The initial support for the pair aligns at 112 (psychological level) ahead of 111.50 (200-DMA/100-DMA) and 111 (psychological level/Sep. 17 low). On the upside, resistances could be seen at 113 (50-DMA/Friday's high), 113.40 (20-DMA) and 114.05 (Nov. 9 high). Following Friday's sharp drop, the RSI indicator on the daily graph remains below the 50 mark, showing that buyers are not looking to take advantage of a bullish correction yet. USD/JPY - Approaching 200-day MA support - Commerzbank Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. GBP/USD retreats sharply from 2-1/2 week tops http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 13:09:13 -0500    •  Fails to build on early up-move. <br />    •  UK poised to increase its offer for EU divorce bill.<br />    •  US tax cut bill headlines to remain in focus.  The GBP/USD pair trimmed some of its strong gains and retreated around 50-pips from 2-1/2 week highs touched earlier.  News that the UK is preparing to increase its offer for the so-called EU divorce bill helped limit early losses, led by German coalition break down, and lifted the pair into positive territory for the fifth consecutive session.  UK: Political drama to be most profound - BBH The pair moved to fresh post-dovish BoE highs and touched an intraday high level of 1.3279 during the European session on Monday before quickly reverting back to the 1.3235-30 region.  A modest US Dollar uptick, despite prevalent negative tone around the US Treasury bond yields, kept a lid on any additional up-move and has been one of the key factors prompting some profit-taking at higher levels. It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to regain traction or extends its pull-back amid absent fundamental driver, in term of any major market moving economic releases, and as investors keep a close eye on developments surrounding a long-awaited US tax cut legislation. Technical outlook Mario Blascak, European Chief Analyst at Bakinv writes: "Technically Sterling is set to break on the upside. Should GBP/USD close above $1.3260, November 1st high of 1.3321 is the next bullish target. Both Momentum and Relative Strength Index are pointing higher on the daily chart, supporting the bullish breakout scenario."<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD kann Erholung and#252;ber 1,18 nicht ausbauen http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 13:03:59 -0500 Trader lassen die politischen Turbulenzen Deutschlands hinter sich Der Bundespräsident Steinmeier wird um 14:30 Uhr ein Statement abgeben Draghi und Constancio Reden im Fokus Der EUR/USD scheiterte am Ausbau seine frühen europäischen Aufwärtsbewegung und so kam es zu einer Abwärtskorrektur von rund 30-35 Pips. Auf die Nachricht, dass die Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel daran scheiterte eine Regierungskoalition aus  Parteien zu bilden, kam es zu einer reflexartigen Abwärtsbewegung, mit einer anschließenden Erholung. Das Paar konnte kurz über 1,1800 steigen, doch dann ging der Aufwärtsbewegung schnell die Puste aus, da die Investoren vor den wichtigen EZB Reden durch Draghi und Constancio keine größeren Positionen eingehen wollen. Die Investoren warten auch auf die Rede von Bundespräsident Frank Walter Steinmeier um 14:30 Uhr. Die Unsicherheit rund um die US Steuerreform führt dazu, dass die USD Bullen in der defensive bleiben, so dass die jüngsten politischen Entwicklungen in der größten Volkswirtschaft der Eurozone der exklusive Treiber hinter der Kursentwicklung des Paares zum Beginn der Woche sind. Technische Aussichten Die Bakinv Chefanalystin für die US Sitzung, Eric Abdelnour schreibt: Ein statisch starker Widerstand liegt bei 1,1820/30, wo das Paar in der letzten Woche sein Hoch bildete. Darüber Folgen die 1,1860 und 1,1890, wo das Paar im Oktober mehrfach mit steigendem Verkaufsinteresse zu kämpfen hatte. Kurzfristig bietet das 1,1745 Fibonacci Niveau eine Unterstützung und mit einem Bruch darunter können die Verluste zum Tagestief und in Richtung 1,1705 (50 % Retracement der gleichen Rallye) ausgebaut werden."<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. FOMC Minutes to take centre stage this week - BBH http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 13:02:38 -0500 Analysts at BBH note that the Federal Reserve will release the minutes/record of its most recent meeting this week in which the FOMC meeting was as much of a non-event as its meetings can be, with no forecast updates, press conference, or new initiatives. Key Quotes “Perhaps the most interesting thing about the November 1 FOMC meeting is that Powell knew he would be nominated to be the next Chair, though Yellen apparently did not.” “A debate over the extent that the Fed's reduction of the balance sheet will tighten financial conditions has emerged.  Many argue that the $450 bln reduction of the Fed balance sheet envisioned by the end of next year is tantamount to 100 bp hike in the Fed funds rate.  We respectfully demur.” “The difference in views stems from a disagreement on how the asset purchases worked.  Given that US Treasury yields fell on the announcement and rose on the actual purchases underscores, in our mind, the important of the signaling channel for impact as opposed to the material impact.  This is not so much a resurrection of the debate over flows (purchases) versus stock (holdings) as it is an appreciation of the significance of official communication.  In recent speeches, central bank officials seemed to acknowledge this and give credence to our emphasis.” “That said, where we do agree is that investors may be underestimating the extent of Fed tightening in 2018.  This is not because of the balance sheet effects, but because we expect the Fed to raise rates two or three times in 2018, while the market has a little more than one discounted.  A Reuters survey found that most economists it surveyed expect the Fed to hike rates twice next year, which is somewhere in between what the market is discounting and what the Fed's forecasts suggest.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Russia Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 6.8%and#160;to 7.6% in October http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 13:01:52 -0500 Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Russia Unemployment Rate in line with expectations (5.1%) in October http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 13:01:49 -0500 Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. US: Progress in tax reforms - BBH http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 12:34:45 -0500 US tax reform made important progress last week as the House of Representative approved its version while the Senate Finance Committee approved its version, points out the research team at BBH.   Key Quotes “The next step is a vote on the Senate floor.  This could come after the return from the Thanksgiving break, after which there are a dozen legislative sessions before next month's holiday break.   However, we are skeptical that the bill can pass in its current form.  The regressive nature of the proposals and the divisive inclusion of the repeal of the individual mandate for the Affordable Care Act will produce at least three defections from the Republican Party.” “Indeed, nearly 2/3 of the economists polled by Reuters (November 13-17) were not confident that tax reform would pass this year.  Many who think it might be passed next year seem to expect a scaled-down version that may rely on temporary cuts more than reform per se.” “If the tax bill falters on the floor of the Senate, as we think likely, the stock market may be vulnerable to disappointment and volatility would likely increase.  Bond yields may ease, and with the short-end anchored by the expected path of Fed policy, the yield curve may flatten further.” “In the currency market, on a purely directional basis, the yen is the most sensitive to US 10-year yields (past 60-day correlation 0.94).  The Swiss franc (0.86) is followed by the Australian dollar (0.81) and the Norwegian krone (0.80).  The correlation between the 10-year yield and euro (and Swedish krona) lags but is still robust at 0.76, while the Canadian dollar's correlation is a touch lower at 0.74.  Sterling is the outlier with a correlation of 0.18 over the past 60 sessions.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. EUR/USD fails to build on recovery beyond 1.18 handle http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 12:33:36 -0500    •  Traders look beyond German political turmoil.<br />    •  German President Steinmeier to make a statement at 1330 GMT.<br />    •  Speeches by Draghi and Constancio hold the key. The EUR/USD pair failed to build on the early European session bullish spike and has now retreated around 30-35 pips from session tops.  Following a knee-jerk reaction to the news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's attempt to forge a four-party coalition collapsed, the pair staged an impressive rebound during the early European session. The pair briefly moved above the 1.1800 handle but the up-move quickly ran out of steam as investors seemed reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of key speeches by the ECB policymakers, including Draghi and Constancio.  In the meantime, investors will look forward to the German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier statement due at 2.30PM CET or 1330 GMT. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the fate of a major US tax overhaul legislation kept the US Dollar bulls on defensive, with the latest political developments in the Euro-zone's largest economy acting as an exclusive driver of the pair's movement at the start of a new trading week.  Technical outlook Eric Abdelnour, American Chief Analyst at Bakinv writes: "A strong static resistance comes at 1.1820/30, where the pair stalled by the end of last week. Beyond it, the pair can advance up to 1.1860, en route to the 1.1890 price zone, where the pair met selling interest multiple times during October. The mentioned 1.1745 Fibonacci support has become key short-term, as a break below it should favor a new leg lower past the mentioned daily low and toward 1.1705 the 50% retracement of the same rally."<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. ECB Minutes to be of significant importance this week - BBH http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 12:32:55 -0500 The ECB's meeting's October 26 meeting was more significant and the release of its minutes will be keenly watched by investors, according to analysts at BBH.   Key Quotes “It announced the extension of its asset purchases through September 2018 at half the current 60 bln euro monthly pace. There are two debates that investors may look at the record to shed light.” “First, the ECB left the end date of its program open-ended.  Some officials wanted to provide a date certain that it would end.  The position is understandable.  Growth remains above trend, and the threat of deflation has been extinguished.  However, tactically it would be a mistake.  It would minimize the central bank's options.  It would likely produce an undesirable impact in the market by increasing interest rates, and thus undermining the ongoing operation.” “One thing we do not think has been fully considered is that when the ECB meets in the June and July next year, the balance sheet may already have begun shrinking.  The cause of this would not be the scarcity of securities that some are focused on.  Rather, starting in the middle of next year, the TLTROs (long-term borrowings) can begin being repaid early without penalty.” “New lending is growing slowly, and negative rates are still seen as dominating short-term and intermediate-term rates.  As such, we suspect some banks will want to return the undesired and costly liquidity.  The ECB charges 40 bp on deposits.  The German curve is negative through seven years, and the French curve is negative through five.  Spain, Portugal, and Italy offer negative rates out through three years.” “One of the reasons that the ECB shied away from calling its announcement tapering is that its extraordinary policies have not changed.  Its negative deposit rate remains.  It will continue to fully meet all demand at its refi operations conducted at zero interest rates.  The second debate may have been over linking these measures to some inflation.  This issue can be expected to get more airtime next year.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. UK: Political drama to be most profound - BBH http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 12:09:06 -0500 Political drama may be most profound in the UK as two issues are likely to dominate:  the budget and Brexit, according to analysts at BBH.   Key Quotes “Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond will make his budget statement on Wednesday.   Expectations are rightfully low.” “The Chancellor had to quickly backtrack from his March initiative to raise the National Insurance contribution of some self-employed people.  He is likely to be particularly cautious this time.  His tenure may depend on it.  The revised forecasts of the Office of National Statistics do not give Hammond much room to maneuver even if he was so inclined.  Growth forecasts have been revised lower, and as a consequence, the projected deficit is larger than previously anticipated.” “Brexit continues to be vexing.  For the past eight months, UK officials appear to have struggled to get their heads around the legal fact that once Article 50 was invoked, the power of the agenda and negotiations shifts to the EU.  The EU has clearly demanded that progress is made on three separate issues to move forward on the terms of the new relationship.  The three issues are the rights of EU citizens in the UK, the Irish border, and the UK's willingness to make good its past financial commitment to the EU.”   “EU Council President Tusk gave the UK a two-week deadline to make progress.  Otherwise, he will not endorse the beginning of the next phase of negotiations at the December heads of state summit.  The pressure is on the UK to take action.”   “Reports suggest a mini-cabinet meeting of key Brexit ministers on Monday may be a potential turning point and poses a risk for a spike in sterling volatility.  There are rumors that a significant cabinet shakeup also may be announced shortly.  Sterling has been in a roughly $1.30-$1.33 trading range for the past two months.  It has been confined to a range against the euro.  The euro has traded largely between GBP0.8750 and GBP0.9050.” “Perhaps what Churchill once said about Americans (that they could be counted on to do the right thing, after the alternatives have been exhausted), might apply to the UK here.  Anything that suggests the UK and/or the EU is moving away from the brink may be seen as sterling positive.  We think an upside break should be respected.”  Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. USD/CAD remains capped below 1.2800 handle http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 12:02:05 -0500    •  Weaker oil prices weigh on commodity-linked Loonie.<br />    •  USD holds stable but fails to provide any additional boost. Having refreshed session lows near the 1.2755 region, the USD/CAD pair regained traction and might now be looking to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 1.2800 handle.  A modest profit-taking slide around crude oil prices was seen weighed on the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and helped the pair to bounce off around 30-pips from lows. Adding to this, the US Dollar has also managed to rebound from daily lows and further collaborated to the pair's uptick over the past couple of hours.  Despite a good two-way move, the pair might continue with its struggle to decisively break through the 1.2800 handle amid ongoing uncertainty over the fate of a highly-anticipated US tax reform plan. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying interest before positioning for any additional near-term appreciating move amid empty economic docket.  Technical levels to watch Momentum beyond the 1.2800 handle is likely to confront fresh supply near the 1.2820 region, above which a bout of short-covering could lift the pair further towards 1.2885 strong hurdle. On the flip side, mid-1.2700s now seems to have emerged as immediate support, which if broken could accelerate the slide back toward the 1.2700 handle en-route its next major support near the 1.2670-60 region.<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Germany: Political chaos continues - BBH http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 11:43:14 -0500 Germany’s struggle to find a working government coalition continues as the news that the attempt to forge a four-party coalition in Germany collapsed Sunday saw the euro marked down in early Asian activity, notes the research team at BBH.   Key Quotes “It is not clear where Germany goes from here.  However, the important takeaway is that investors do not see this as a systemic issue, but a local one.  Investors quickly looked past Catalonia's secessionist push on similar grounds.  Likewise, state developments in the US rarely move the markets, even large states, like New York and California.”   “There are several options available to Germany.  More compromises by the CDU/CSU and Greens could try to win back the FDP.  The CSU/CDU could try to woo the SPD, which has thus far refused to be part of a Grand Coalition again.  The CSU/CDU and Greens could form a minority government, which the FDP says they would support.  The German President could reject a minority government and insist on new elections.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Emerging Markets: A correction driven by technicals - Deutsche Bank http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 11:39:10 -0500 Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that the current sell-off in EM has exceeded their long-standing cautious expectations and they believe this correction to be technical, yet a material retracement might have to wait until December and lower US rates/policy uncertainty. Key Quotes “Rather than a fundamental re-pricing, this non-differentiated price action reflects year-end hedging. As UST supply and Fed uncertainty subside in December. We expect a relief rally favoring the ‘safer’ carry longs of RUB, BRL and ARS. We also recommend staying long PLN (vs. EUR) and keep a bullish bias in CLP (on elections) and PEN. Oil also supports some retracement in COP, but we remain cautious in MXN (buying USD/MXN on dips below 19.0) as we see no incentive for early accord. We see a retracement in EM rates conditional on a pull-back in EM currencies and more differentiated price action.” “Technicals apart, we stay received where inflation risks are low and premium remains attractive. We keep front end receivers in Brazil (Jul18|Jan19 and Jan19|Jan20), Colombia (Coltes 20s and IBR1Y1Y), while favoring receivers in both Russia and Poland with a steepening bias. We favor flatteners in Chile (2s5s), Peru (Sob37s vs Sob 26s) and swaps spread compression trades in Mexico (buy MBONOs 42s) and Colombia (COLTES 24s). Buy Hungarian bonds in the belly vs. paying 5Y5Y, hybrid flatteners in Israel and Romania (but with 6m FX implied as payer).” “We still see EM credit more resilient than local markets and US HY. We are very skeptical of any debt refinancing in Venezuela under the current government. Position for further price equalization (sell VENZ 18s), trade ranges (buy in low 20s and sell high 20s), and short PDV 20s. Keep long Argentina EUR 18s, EUR Warrants, maintain Turkey 26s vs. 5Y CDS, and favor SoA 27s vs. 22s flattener.” Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. NZD/USD sticks to modest recovery gains, around 0.6830 level http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 11:33:50 -0500    •  Sliding US bond yields prompts some short-covering move.<br />    •  Recoveries are more likely to be short-lived. <br />    •  This week’s key event/data to help determine the next leg. The NZD/USD pair staged a goodish recovery from sub-0.6800 level and recovered nearly 50-pips from session tops.  Currently trading around 0.6830-35 band, with a daily gain of over 0.30%, the NZD is turning out to the top performing major currency and one of the key beneficiaries of sliding US Treasury bond yields.  Against the backdrop of last week's sell-off to the lowest level since early June 2016, weaker US bond yields, which tends to boost demand for higher-yielding currencies, seems to have prompted some short-covering and has been one of the key factors driving the pair higher.  Apart from a modest recovery, led by technically oversold conditions, the pair's up-move lacked any fundamental drivers and hence, runs the risk of reversing its course amid concerns over the change in government and its possible impact on RBNZ monetary policy. Moving ahead, this week's key events/data - FOMC meeting minutes and the key US durable goods orders data would help determine the pair's next leg of directional move. Technical levels to watch A strong follow-through recovery could lift the pair towards 0.6870 horizontal support before attempting a move towards the 0.6900 handle. On the flip side, renewed weakness below the 0.6800 handle, leading to a subsequent break below 0.6780 level (Friday's low), would turn the pair vulnerable to extend its downward trajectory towards the 0.6700 handle.<br />   Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Chile Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with expectations (2.2%) in 3Q http://www.bull-trend.com/ Currencies http://www.bull-trend.com/ Mon, 20 Nov 2017 11:31:32 -0500 Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Bakinv does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.