Bullets Fever

ATTENTION: Bullets Fever is moving to Bulletsforever.com

2006-12-10T13:01:00.000-08:00

A while ago, I casually mentioned that there was big news happening with the site in the near future. Ladies and gentlemen, the future has officially arrived.

Bullets Fever is officially moving to bulletsforever.com. That's right, I'm now going to be blogging for Sports Blog Nation. Why Bullets Forever? Blame the SB Nation guys. They started building the site under that url and neither of us wanted to change back. I kind of like the ring anyway, so it was probably a blessing that they got the url wrong initially.

In case you don't know, Sports Blog Nation is arguably the premier sports blogging network on the internet, and it's home to some amazing team blogs, including Blogabull, Sactown Royalty, Golden State of Mind, Blogging the Boys, Sunday Morning Quarterback, U Dub Dish, Athletics Nation, and many more. They're adding more basketball bloggers and I've signed on to be their Wizards guy.

So why make the switch? There are a ton of reasons. In no particular order.

1. Community: In case you haven't noticed, I've bent over backwards on this site to try to make Bullets Fever a community website. I've posed discussion questions at the end of each entry in an attempt to empower you, the reader. Unfortunately, there's only so much you can do on blogger. However, SB Nation has some amazing features that allow you guys to actively participate in the Bullets Forever community. They have these features called "Diaries" that basically allow you guys to create your own mini blog entries. You also have the power to easily comment on my own posts. All you have to do is create an account. It literaly takes two seconds. Just give an e-mail address, and you're pretty much all set.

2. Exposure: Not gonna lie. SB Nation blogs get a ton of readers, and this move will give the blog a lot more exposure. The more readers a blog gets, the better a blog becomes. I'm hoping Bullets Forever can be the #1 independent source for Washington Wizards on the internet, and the move to SB Nation certainly helps with that goal.

3. The Layout: Blogger can be really frustrating to deal with, and I'm tired of fiddling around with margins and sidebar stuff only to get a so-so layout. The SB Nation sites have this revolutionary software called "Scoop" that makes their sites look freaking amazing. They created that cool logo and all the stuff on the sidebar (except for the links). Better yet, the stuff is insanely easy to use. So to sum it all up, better layout + easy to use=no brainer.

The content itself isn't going to change much. There will be open threads, game recaps, and all the other random stuff that already is here. I don't expect much of that to change.

So please, I encourage everyone to join me at bulletsforever.com. I've been blessed to have some awesome readers, and I hope that you all can still be here even as the site switches. Update your blogrolls and your feeds, and come along for the ride.

Once again, I welcome everyone to join me at bulletsforever.com!

Rockets 114, Wizards 109: Can I write a check?

2006-12-09T21:25:00.000-08:00

When Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison combine for 70 points, it's usually enough to get the Wizards the win. Tonight, however, it simply wasn't the case, as the Wizards fell to the Houston Rockets 114-109 at home.

In the game preview, I suggested that the Wizards let Yao and T-Mac get theirs and focus on stopping the rest of the team. Quite simply, it was a silly suggestion. Yao was unstoppable last night, as he constantly used his size and length to dominate Etan Thomas and the other Wizards centers. When he didn't score, he was fouled, and he hit 12 of 14 from the line. The Wizards had no chance against him last night. Before McGrady left the game with back spasims (be concerned, Rockets fans!), he was dominating on the perimeter with 28 points on 10 of 21 from the field. Finally, even with all of that, the Wizards still allowed 4 other guys to score in double figures. It was simply a dreadful defensive performance.

On the other end, the Big 3 played their game, but nobody else showed up. DeShawn Stevenson was 2 for 9, Etan Thomas 1 for 5, and Antonio Daniels 0 for 1. How in the world is Daniels only shooting one shot? That simply can't happen again. As good as Arenas, Butler, and Jamison are, they need a fourth scorer to do anything.

The defensive performance in particular is somewhat troubling. It's true that no other team has a guy like Yao, and the Wizards simply never have a chance to stop him. However, T-Mac should not be getting 28 points in such a short amount of time. The Wizards surrendered too many open jumpers to Shane Battier, Luther Head, and Juwan Howard. Once again, the Wizards struggled defensively to guard teams that play a half-court style. It happened in Chicago and it happened again last night.

I did see three encouraging signs, however. 38 free throws is really good, even if they gave up 38 to the Rockets. Jamison had a big game yesterday, and his production continues to be a major key for the team. Finally, Eddie opened up the bench, as Roger Mason, Calvin Booth, and even James Lang got into the game yesterday. I've been begging for this the entire season, and it finally seems like Jordan is getting the message. True, Booth and Lang probably only played because of Haywood's injury, but at least Jordan is making the effort.

All in all, it's been 20 games, and the Wizards are 9-11. They've proven they can beat bad teams and even a couple good ones. However, they have to beat good teams at home more consistently to reach the next level. They have two of those types of games next week against Denver and Miami. A sweep of those two teams will signal the Wizards are really back.

Postgame thoughts? What did you take away from the loss?

Open Thread: Game 20

2006-12-09T15:09:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 20
Rockets (13-6) vs. Wizards (9-10)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Previous Matchups: Rockets 86, Wizards 82

Tonight, the Houston Rockets come into town to play the Wizards at 7 PM. A win would put the Wizards back at .500 for the first time since very early in the season.

Houston's a team I really like. They have two big stars and great surrounding role players. The key to their improvement this season has been defensively. Shane Battier has been a revelation on the defensive end all year, and Yao and T-Mac have stepped up their game on the defensive end. The Rockets are coming off games where they've held teams to 63 and 62 points, and they held the Wizards to only 82 points in the first matchup.

Offensively, the Wizards need to guard Tracy McGrady well. He's the one that makes the Rockets go, and he's really improved his offensive playmaking ability. Yao of course is the go-to-guy, but the Wizards have to be careful about doubling him because he's a great passer and will kick it out to open shooters. The Wizards have to make Yao and T-Mac beat them on their own. I would honestly suggest single covering Yao most of the game to take guys like Rafer Alston and Luther Head out of the game.

On the other end, Antawn Jamison remains the key. Last night's game was the first the Wizards won all year when he had under 18 points. The Rockets aren't going to give anything easily, so Jamison, Arenas, and Butler need to attack the tin. If the Rockets win the free throw battle tonight, it's a recipe for disaster.

Rockets Blogs: Rockets Blast, Clutch Fans.

The Wizards are at home, so I like their chances. Battier will probably stick to guarding Caron Butler, leaving Alston on Arenas. The Wizards stunk in the last game against the Rockets, and at home, I expect the offense to be much better. Guarding Yao will be key. He'll get his points, but you can't let him get his assists. The Wizards need to turn Houston into a two-man team to win this one.

Prediction: Wizards 94, Rockets 80

If you're online during the game, give a shout!

Wizards 113, Sixers 98: They did play the game, you know

2006-12-09T13:38:00.000-08:00

The big news of the game may have been Allen Iverson, but the Wizards and the Sixers did in fact play a game last night. After falling way behind early on, the Wizards turned things around emphatically and got a pretty easy 15 point win. Gilbert Arenas has another big game, and guys like Brendan Haywood and Roger Mason stepped up with big contributions off the bench.
Early on, the Sixers were playing with much more energy than the Wizards. Guys like Kyle Korver, Willie Greene, and Andre Iguodala were playing as if they had something to prove. Finally freed from the AI shadow, these guys had Phily up 46-26 midway through the second quarter. Then, the Wizards started to hit shots. Gilbert Arenas and DeShawn Stevenson hit key shots, and after Arenas’ buzzer-beating halftime three, the Wizards were only down by 4. It got better in the third quarter, as the Wizards finally got some easy hoops and took control of the game. Phily had nothing left in the fourth and the Wizards got their second road win of the year.

It took time, but the more talented team won. The 76ers simply were overmatched tonight in the talent department. When your best player can barely jump, you know you’re in trouble. The Sixers couldn’t stop the Wizards offensively once the Wizards pulled themselves together. All in all, the Wizards didn’t play their best game by any means. The Sixers shot nearly 50 percent from the field and didn’t turn the ball over. The Wizards won because they got to the line, shooting 30 free throws compared to 19 for the Sixers. Other than that, the Wizards didn’t really do anything crazy well. They had significantly more talent than the Sixers, and their offense ran circles around Phily’s porous half-court defense the entire game.

Without AI, the Sixers are a mess. Chris Webber is too old and everyone else is too one-dimensional and inexperienced. None of those young guys impressed me at all, and this team needs a major makeover fast. Life without Iverson simply isn’t going to be fun for Sixers fans.

Three plays in particular showed how bad the Sixers are during the third quarter.

With the score tied at 65, Caron Butler had the ball on the wing and dribbled aimlessly towards the middle, with Kyle Korver staying right with him. Despite this, Rodney Carney, who was guarding DeShawn Stevenson on the wing, takes his eye off his man and commits slightly towards Butler. Stevenson goes backdoor and Butler hits him for the easy jam as Carney just stood there helplessly. Probably the worst man defense I’ve ever seen.
Off a Sixers miss, Gilbert Arenas sees the Sixers getting back slowly and throws a long pass ahead to Stevenson. Carney and Steven Hunter are slow to get back, and Kevin Ollie is standing aimlessly in the middle of the court staring at the flight of the ball. Stevenson makes the catch and both Kyle Korver and Chris Webber run at him. Meanwhile, Brendan Haywood sneaks behind Ollie and is wide open on the other side. Easy alley oop, easy slam for Haywood. 71-65 Wizards.
78-73, final minute of the quarter. Haywood comes out and sets a high screen for Arenas at the top of the key. Steven Hunter and Kevin Ollie attempt to trap Arenas, but Ollie is easily picked off and Hunter cheats left when trying to hedge. Arenas splits the two and comes right down the lane. Korver and Webber both come to greet him, leaving Caron Butler wide open on the right side. Butler takes the pass and goes right to the rim. Carney, who had been guarding Stevenson on the other side, comes to meet him, but instead of holding his ground, Carney jumps in a feigned attempt to block the shot. Butler easily maneuvers around Carney in the air for the huge two-handed jam.

Three horrible defensive sequences helped to bring the Sixers down last night. The Wizards weren’t doing anything fancy, but the Sixers still had no idea how to rotate as a team. Phily is just a downright terrible defensive team.

As for the bigger news, I’ve heard Denver, Minnesota, the Clippers, Golden State, Seattle, Indiana, and even Boston mentioned as potential Iverson destinations. It appears the Sixers don’t want to deal him to an Eastern Conference club, so I doubt he ends up with Indy or Boston. Denver and Minnesota both sound good, but both break down in a hurry. A KG/Iverson or Melo/Iverson combo sounds great, but Minnesota would be even further in salary cap hell and Denver isn’t looking to add another scorer. Seattle and the Clippers sound the most intriguing to me. The Clippers could do it with Shaun Livingston or they could put together a Maggette/Mobley/Singelton/Sofoklis Schortsianitis package. Iverson and Elton Brand would get along really well together, and if Livingston stays, the Clippers would be right up there with the best in the West. Seattle also may work, possibly something like Rashard Lewis/Luke Ridnour/one of the young centers. Iverson and Ray Allen may be able to put Seattle back near the top again. Also, don’t rule out teams like Sacramento and Chicago. Both teams have imaginative GMs and interesting trade pieces. A Mike Bibby/Kevin Martin package is intriguing, and the Bulls could do it with a Ben Gordon/Luol Deng/P.J. Brown/ offer. Either way, expect the unexpected with an Iverson trade.

As for the Wizards, last night was a good win, and with Houston coming into town tonight, another victory would be huge.

Postgame thoughts? What did you think about the win?

Arenas at 24, or AI at 24?

2006-12-08T08:43:00.000-08:00

Editor's Note: I've just pulled an all-nighter, so actual clear writing just simply isn't going to happen at this moment. My apologies. -Pradamaster

With the Wizards traveling to Phily to face the 76ers, we get a chance to see a battle between two of basketball's most dynamic scoring point guards in Allen Iverson and Gilbert Arenas. The players are so similar it's uncanny. Both can be playmakers, but function best through explosive scoring ability with the ball in their hands. Iverson was more explosive, but Arenas has a better jumper and uses angles extremely well.

One commenter said a while ago that he'd rather have Iverson than Agent Zero right now. Considering AI is 31 and Arenas is 24, this makes no sense. But who was the better player at age 24? That's certainly still open to debate.

A quick look at the stats actually gives Arenas the overall advantage.

Iverson in 2000: 28.4 points, 4.7 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 42% field goal percentage, 34% 3 point percentage, 20.0 PER
Arenas in 2006: 29.3 points, 6.1 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 45% field goal percentage, 37% 3 point percentage, 23.8 PER

In terms of pure numbers, Arenas has the overwhelming advantage. The only categories Iverson has a leg up are in rebounds and steals, and the difference is negligable. Arenas has a moderate advantage in points and three point percentage and a significant advantage in assists, field goal percentage, and player efficiency rating. However, we also have to account changes in the rules that may account for Iverson's smaller scoring average. Scoring is up around the league, so it only makes sense that Arenas' scoring is better. In addition, Arenas' inconsistency is maddening, while Iverson's production was more level from game-to-game.

So now it's your turn. Who's the better player at age 24? Iverson, or Arenas? Explain your reasoning.

[edit]: I just woke up to see the Wizards getting their butts kicked by an Iverson-less Sixers team before turning it around now emphatically. Strange game. I'll have a lot more on the game itself and the news about Allen Iverson later on, but for now, I guess this can also be an open game thread.

Wizards 113, Knicks 102: No more monkey on our backs!

2006-12-06T23:20:00.000-08:00

The Wizards finally got their first win on the road tonight against the Knicks in the place where the road funk really started. They didn't even play well except for some insane shooting, so it's nice that they got a win not playing their best. The Knicks outrebounded the Wizards again and got to the line more, but Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison simply were hitting everything.

Of course, for the Knicks, playing at home usually is akin to playing a road game, so if you really want to be facetious, you could say the Wizards still haven't really won on the road. Whatever. At least they won away from the Verizon Center.

For more, I'm going to turn it over to Seth from Your New York Knicks, who attended the game and was kind enough to drop me an e-mail with his thoughts. Even though Seth's an enemy blogger, it's great to hear thoughts from someone who attended the game, and I really hope this can become a common practice in future games. Thanks, Seth!

Yo, here's a few thoughts on the Wiz from tonight's game:

- The Wiz as a team really seem to be an extension of Arenas. In the last Knicks-Wizards game, Arenas couldn't buy a bucket, and the team followed suit. Tonight, Gilbert hit just about everything (including a casual 40 footer after a whistle), and the Wizards followed suit. Streakiest team I've seen in a while.

- Speaking of Arenas, one of things that makes him so amazing, in my opinion, is that he's completely predictable. When he's hot, you can tell very early on in a play when and where's he gonna shoot. The entire crowd knows, his teammates know, and even the defender knows. But when he's hot like he was tonight, it just doesn't matter.

- I don't remember Antawn Jamison ever being anything more than an occasional three-point shooter, but he was ridiculous (6-8) tonight. Now that I look, he's been raining threes for most of the season.

- Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are both total stiffs on offense (which makes Curry's performance look much worse.)

- Songaila and Ruffin are hurt, but even still, the Wiz are not a very deep team.

- Apparently, the Wizards shot 41 of 84, but off the top of my head I can remember about 3 or 4 misses. They were unbelievable.

Anyway, the Wizards looked quite fluid, and they are due much credit for completely sucking the life out of the Garden. It was impossible for them to lose when Jamison and Arenas were so damn perfect from the field. Congrats.

Thanks again Seth, and tell your team that the Wizards thank them for making it possible to finally get the monkey off our backs!

As a sidenote, I'm probably out of commission tomorrow due to finals, so I will probably see you Friday when the Wizards take on Phily. If anyone has anything long to say, send me an e-mail and I'll put it up tomorrow.

Postgame thoughts? What stood out during this game?

Open Thread: Game 18

2006-12-06T13:35:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 18
Wizards (7-10) vs. Knicks (7-13)
Madison Square Garden
7:30 PM
CSN, MSG, and NBA League Pass

Previous Matchup: Knicks 102, Wizards 82

Not much time to preview this thing in depth, but clearly, we cannot have a repeat of last time. Everything went wrong in that game. They didn't run an offense, they missed every shot, they failed to get any real rebounds, and they let Renaldo Balkman have a huge game. I hope it doesn't happen again.

Knicks Blogs: Knickerblogger, Your New York Knicks

I'll let Eddie Jordan have the last word.

"You have to grasp the opportunity, you have to grasp the moment and say, 'Look this is it, New York City, a team that beat us, really probably started a bad feeling in us. And this is a great opportunity, where it began. Let's end it.' And I think that's what they'll do," he said. "If you're going to win on the road, what better place than in New York City? It's a great place to play, our guys feel good about themselves after that performance last night, and I don't think there is, as Al Maguire would say, a pink elephant in the back of our minds or anything like that, that's gonna disrupt us and distort our focus. I think we feel good, we're jacked up. I think we all believe, from the players to us, that it's the energy and the confidence and the aggressiveness and yet the discipline we need to win on the road that we got last night."

Let's hope you're right, Eddie. I also agree and think it will stop tonight, but this team has baffled me before. Let's just say I'm not guaranteeing anything.

Prediction: Wizards 104, Knicks 94

If you're online during the game, give a shout!

[edit]: In honor of the Knicks, here's the video of Nate Robinson's travel from last week.

Wizards 106, Mavericks 97: HIBACHI!

2006-12-05T14:41:00.000-08:00

For three quarters, the Wizards played possibly the best game they played in the last two years. A subpar fourth quarter made the Wizards’ performance look a lot worse than it really was.

The Wizards did two things very well. First, they really moved the ball well offensively. When the Wizards struggle offensively, it’s because there is too much one-on-one play. With Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, the Wizards have two fantastic one-on-one guys they can depend on when the shot clock goes down, but it’s dangerous to think they can just go one-on-one every single possession. It really wasn’t surprising to see than Antawn Jamison, a guy whose production rises when he’s in the flow of the offense, had his best game of the season last night. Dallas is a tough defensive team, especially inside, so to get all those open looks was really encouraging.

The other thing the Wizards did unbelievably well was they pounded Dallas on the glass. That really shocked me when I looked at the numbers. The Wizards outrebounded a very good Dallas rebounding team 53-39! That’s really solid, especially considering Dallas’ incredible offensive rebounding ability. Etan Thomas was an absolute monster last night with 10 points, 11 boards, and that one block on Devin Harris. That block was a play that really set the tone for the entire game. The Wizards showed tons of energy on defense and locked down on a really explosive Dallas team. Jason Terry, Josh Howard, and Devin Harris shot a combined 5 for 23. If you do that, you’ll beat Dallas.

While Arenas was huge with 38 points and 8 assists, (you listening, Michael Redd! You can score a shitload of points and be a good playmaker. It’s possible) the key to this game was Jamison. Unsilent pointed out a couple days ago that the Wizards are a completely different team when Jamison is playing well, and tonight showed it. Jamison’s the one guy that really needs to get his points in the flow of the offense. If the offense becomes too much based on one-on-one play, Jamison ends up trying to overcompensate and jacks up bad 19 foot jumpers. This also prevents him from getting inside for rebounds. When the offense is moving the ball well, Jamison is much more successful, and when Jamison is successful offensively, he’ll get in there and grab key rebounds. The play he made to seal the game at the end was a prime example of this.

However, I hate to say it again, but this game didn’t really prove all that much. The Wizards are 7-2 at home and could very easily be 9-0. We know they can play up to their potential against anyone in the Verizon Center. Now, they have to prove it and play well on the road. The offense needs to keep moving the ball well instead of stagnating and watching Arenas or Butler go 1 on 5. With road games against the Knicks and the Sixers on the docket this week, the Wizards have a great chance to finally get a road win.

In other news, Gilbert Arenas is going to be signing autographs/discussing his new shoe over at the NBA store in New York City. This wouldn’t ordinarily be newsworthy, but, apparently, Dan Steinberg, Unsilent Majority, Will Leitch, SLAM, and With Leather are all going to be there. Steinberg is calling this event a “Blogocalypse.” If anyone else is planning on being there, I’d really like to hear about it.

Also, Steinberg pops the “what if you could pretend you guys are at home when you’re on the road” question, and gets a ton of player responses. In an earlier Bog entry, Post Wizards beat writer Ivan Carter wondered aloud, "Is there a Shakespeare tragedy about an army that was great on its own soil but couldn't win on the road?" Clearly, this road thing is getting old and the players really have to find a way to break through. It better come this week with the Knicks and Sixers on the docket.

Finally, if you were at the game yesterday, let me know and send me your postgame thoughts. I’ll put them up here on the blog when I get them. E-mail me at pradam@brandeis.edu.

Postgame thoughts? Please someone be positive for now!

WIZARDS WIN!!!!!

2006-12-04T20:41:00.000-08:00

More to come tomorrow after my final is over, but what a huge win!!!!

I got concerned at the end, for sure, but what's with the negativity right now? The Wizards just kicked the hottest team in the NBA's ass! They were up by 30 points and they held Dallas to 34 percent in the first half!! They still haven't won on the road, and it still sucked that they allowed Dallas to come back like they did, but let's be happy for once. They needed a big win tonight and they got it!

If you were at the game, it must have been sick! I really want to hear about it, so send me your recap of the game so everyone can see it. E-mail me at pradam@brandeis.edu.

More tomorrow, but for now, I can be happy studying for my final!

Open Thread: Game 17

2006-12-04T15:20:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 17
Mavericks (12-4) vs. Wizards (6-10)
Verizon Center
7 PM
NBA TV and CSN

This would be a great game to have.

The Mavericks, winners of 12 in a row, come into Verizon Center tonight. I’d say a little more about this game, but I think it’s obvious how big a win would be for the Wizards. It also doesn’t help that I’m in the middle of finals week.

On another note, thanks to the commenters that pointed out that Eddie Jordan signed an extension this summer. Total oversight on my part and I can’t believe I forgot about that. It doesn’t mean he can’t get fired, but it makes it unlikely in the first year.

As a clarification, I’m not necessarily saying the Wizards need to fire Eddie Jordan RIGHT NOW. It’s still really early in the season, and the Wizards got off to a similarly bad (12-18) start last year. There’s still a lot of time to turn things around. Instead, my main point was that I’m not sure Eddie is the best guy to get the Wizards to the next level. Eddie’s a fantastic offensive mind, and it’s no coincidence that the Wizards had the top scoring trio in the past two years with different personnel (Butler replacing Hughes last year). His in-game tactics, especially his substitution patterns, can be baffling at times, but I don’t think they’ve played a major role in costing the Wizards more than one game (the Cleveland one) this year. At the end of the day, the players have really struggled with late-game execution. There’s nothing Eddie could do about the team’s inability to score against Houston late in the game, for example. However, it’s clear so far that the defense is no better than last year, and it doesn’t even seem like its getting better. I wrote in my preview that the Wizards needed to get that ranking to 15^thto have a chance at 50 wins. It hasn’t happened so far, and for that reason, the Wizards may need to get someone on the bench (assistant or head coach notwithstanding) that can teach the team the discipline needed to play good defense.

Mavericks Blogs: Mavs Moneyball, Rebel Ballin

As a reminder, if you’re going to the game tonight (especially if you're the one I had a subtle dig at in the post yesterday) send me an e-mail at pradam@brandeis.edu with an eyewitness report. I’ll post it up tomorrow in a separate entry.

Prediction: Wizards 107, Mavericks 105 (I know, but it’s been a long week and I need to have some optimism here)

If you’re online during the game, give a shout!

Bulls 112, Wizards 94: At the risk of sounding like a broken record...

2006-12-03T11:10:00.000-08:00

Admittedly, I didn’t follow one second of this game in any way. I guess it’s a good thing that happened.

112 points to the Bulls? Are you serious? The same Bulls that scored 72 points against a mediocre Lakers defense earlier this year? Quite simply, that’s about as bad as it gets.

I actually felt there have been times this season where the Wizards were on the verge of turning a corner defensively. Even on their horrendous recent road trip, they had a couple games where they held teams to around 40 percent from the field. These games coincided with horrendous offensive performances, but you had to think the offense would come around.

Now, the Wizards come back and throw up two defensive performances like this? I really don’t get it. Chicago doesn’t have much offensive talent at all. They rely simply on looking for holes to drive and kick outside for open jumpers. They have nobody who can score consistently in the post, and they have nobody (save for Ben Gordon at times) that can consistently break down a defense off the dribble. As a defense, all you really need to do against the Bulls is adhere to the basic defensive fundamentals of contesting shots, moving your feet, and rotating quickly as a unit.

If the Bulls are shooting 60 percent for the first half and 50 percent for the game, then the Wizards screwed up the most basic defensive elements. It seems like any team can get an open shot on this defense if they just make 3 or 4 passes. This would make sense if the Wizards had a ton of slow plodders on their team, but the only person that really fits this description is Antawn Jamison.

The problem then has to be coaching. I’ve usually been an Eddie Jordan supporter because he’s been the guy to take the Wizards to the playoffs the past two years. But this whole situation feels like the Don Nelson situation in Dallas. Nelson was a fantastic coach and did great things to pull Dallas up from the bottom of the Western Conference, but his teams never played defense and only significantly improved once Avery Johnson took his place. Jordan is a great offensive mind, but I'm not sure he’s the type of guy that can get the Wizards better defensively. Just like Don Nelson ultimately wasn’t the guy to take Dallas to the next level, so to is Jordan not the guy for the Wizards.

What this team really needs is a fiery young hotshot who isn’t afraid to get up in the players’ grill. It’s no secret that the two offensive-minded teams that made great strides in the past two years—Seattle in 05 and Dallas last year—had young fiery coaches in Nate McMillan and Avery Johnson. The Wizards could really use a guy like that who can get in the players' faces and let them know that the team isn't playing to their full potential. Many have said the Wizards could use some toughness in their personnel, but it's much more important to get a tough coach than one tough player. This is what the Wizards really need.

Unfortunately, the coaching market isn’t exactly brimming with these types of guys, so we may just have to hope that the Wizards can get back to where they were at last season. Maybe, when this guy retires, he can then take Jordan’s place.

But coaching change or not, the Wizards clearly need a spark from somewhere. Last year, it was giving Caron Butler more playing time. This year, it might have to be firing Eddie Jordan.

By the way, big stuff is happening with the site soon, so I’m looking to incorporate some eyewitness accounts into the recaps. If you are attending any of the Wizards upcoming home or away games, I’d love it for you to send me an account of your experience at the game to put up on the blog. Even if you're writing in a million different places already, it would be really cool to get an actual eyewitness account on this blog somewhere. E-mail me at pradam@brandeis.edu if you’re planning on attending any future games so we can set this up.

(And yes, I realize this is the same thing the guys over at Blazers Edge do, but I think it's really cool thing.)

Do you think a coaching change is the right move here?

Recap and Open Thread for Game 16

2006-12-02T11:28:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 16
Wizards (6-9) vs. Bulls (6-9)
United Center
8:30 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

I'm going to be gone all day, so we're going to combine the recap and preview this time.

I have to say, I was more impressed by the win over Atlanta on Tuesday than the win last night. Obviously, the Wizards played a better game yesterday, but we knew the Wizards could win games like these. It's the games where they aren't scoring a ton of points and they need to rely on defensive stops that we weren't so sure about.

I expected Charlotte to try to grind it out and force the Wizards to win a low-scoring game, but their perimeter defense stunk, allowing way too many open shots. It also helped that the Big 3 were shooting the lights out, and Gilbert Arenas had arguably his most impressive all around game with 33 points and 11 assists. Still, the Wizards defense absolutely stunk last night. There's no other way around it. You can't let Charlotte shoot 59 percent in the first half and 54 for the game. It's not like Charlotte is an offensive powerhouse either: they rank in the bottom 5 in the league in points per game. In the end, the Wizards forced enough turnovers to win, but against a better team, that would have been a loss.

Moving ahead to tonight, the Wizards look to finally get a win on the road against the Bulls tonight. You'll probably remember my proposed wager with Matt at Blogabull about which team will win more games. So far, both teams are struggling, and I don't think either of us wishes we made the wager.

I love when these two teams play because they are complete opposites of each other. Scott Skiles preaches attention to detail, whether it be on or off the court. They run disciplined sets offensively and beat you with solid perimeter defense on the other end. The problem with the Bulls is that they're wound too tightly. Nobody on that team is a consistent difference maker on either end of the court. Ben Wallace was supposed to be that guy, but it simply hasn't happened. Chicago has nobody who can score consistently when their offensive sets break down, meaning that you see a lot of low-percentage contested long jump shots.

The Wizards, on the other hand, have a ton of offensive talent. They have guys who can score in any given situation, and they only struggle offensively when they get lazy. When the shot clock winds down, the Wizards have a pletora of players that can create their own shot. However, they don't pay much attention to detail, whether it be perimeter defense or offensive scheming. If you put the two teams together, you'd have the perfect team.

Bulls blogs: Blogabull

Whenever these two teams play, it's close. There was that epic matchup at the end of the year in the United Center that featured a red-hot Ben Gordon and the charging call on Jared Jeffries when the Wizards tried to tie it. I think this one will be close as well, but I'm not encouraged by the Wizards inability to defend the perimeter against Charlotte. The Bulls should get plenty of open looks and score enough to win this one at home.

Prediction: Bulls 96, Wizards 89

If you're online during the game, give a shout!

Open Thread: Game 15

2006-12-01T16:21:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 15
Bobcats (4-11) vs. Wizards (5-9)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Here's to falling asleep in the middle of the afternoon and waking up after the game starts! Post your game thoughts here. A win is essential.

Bobcats Blogs: Bobcat Bonfire

Prediction: Wizards 92, Bobcats 88

A follow up to yesterday

2006-11-30T18:29:00.000-08:00

A day has passed since yesterday's entry, and Gilbert Arenas has somewhat addressed the issue of his inconsistent start in his blog. The entry still gave me the feeling that he's overthinking a little too much, but he does bring up a couple interesting moments that lead me to think that he's going to be okay.

The first was his meeting with Ernie Grunfeld. Grunfeld correctly mentioned to Arenas that he's improved in many other facets of his game.

He felt I was down because he asked me, “How do you think you’re playing this year?” And I told him, “Oh, I’m not playing very well.” And he was like, “Numbers don’t lie.” So he showed me the numbers, he said besides the shooting percentage, everything is up. Steals is up, rebounds up, assists up…

The other was this seemingly offhand statement.

You know what’s funny? As much as I’m complaining about not getting to the free throw line, I’m having more free throws than I did last year.

I sometimes wonder whether Arenas is self-aware, but I've started to realize that he is more aware of his actions than it seems. His brain seems to function in a way where he understands that his complaints are sometimes unnecessary, but also truely believes that he's right. It's a subconscious inner conflict that can cloud his mind at times when it should be more open.

Again, this is mostly my personal theory. I'm no psychologist, but as a college student trying to involve himself in many causes, I get the same struggles to concentrate as Arenas seems to get.

A few bloggers have also responded to the situation. True Hoop had this to say.

This season everyone, especially Gilbert Arenas, had the idea that Arenas was going to be an MVP candidate. In years past he was seen as a good player, even a great player (especially for a second-round pick). Now he's supposed to be outdueling the likes of Dwyane, LeBron, and Kobe every night.
And that changes everything. Because it used to be that if he had an OK game, that was OK. Now if he has an OK game, everyone--especially Gilbert Arenas--needs someone to blame.

It also means that on nights when he's just not scoring effectively--which hasn't been all that rare--well, the system, driven by the expectation that he's this team's savior, still seems to be in place for him to keep firing away. Just in the month of November he has had games of 2-12, 6-20, 6-23, 5-19, 7-20, 9-25, 8-26, and 1-12. Ouch.

Brett Edwards of The Association and NBA Fanhouse takes Arenas' side and agrees that the officials, particularly Steve Javie, are giving Arenas a raw deal.

The real problem here isn't Arenas, or his alleged need to adjust to the officiating. It's the refereeing of one Steve Javie. Now unless you've been a close follower of the top teams in the league, you may not recognize this official as being any better or worse than the rest. But after sitting in person at several playoffs and Finals games where Javie was involved, I can assure you that this guy has it in for star players, especially in their home building.

DC Sports Bogger Dan Steinberg feels like this will all boil over and Arenas will be back to his sniping ways.

Seriously, you usually think of guys popping off about the officiating when they're still in the heat of the moment, but I see this more as Gil's very straight-faced ruminations on the changing whims of referees, which is why he's saying the same thing in the same words on his blog. I wouldn't worry, all you people worrying about his well-being and focus and distractions and all that. He'll go for 40 or 45 within the next week.

I realize that people probably got the wrong idea from the last line of yesterday's post. Looking back on it, I realize I came off a little too strongly against Arenas at the end. I don't necessarily believe he should explicitly stop blogging or stop sponsering his HALO as I seemed to suggest. I'm really just saying that I think Arenas has to prioritize more effectively. This is not to say that he believes outside endeavors are almost as important as basketball, but it does mean that he needs to realize the limits of his own mind and try to scale down to casues he truely believes are important.

As much as I love Gilbert Arenas the person, at the end of the day, he's paid to play basketball first. If he's playing below his potential, it's a problem. I believe he'll turn it around, but if Arenas continues this inconsistent act, the Wizards are going to continue to struggle.

How much of an issue is this latest controversy? Is it even an issue at all?

Ivan Carter on Gilbert Arenas: "I have no idea what he's talking about half the time."

2006-11-29T16:41:00.000-08:00

In terms of pure numbers, the Wizards rank right around where they did last year. They're shooting a lot of free throws, taking good care of the ball, giving up too many open shots, and allowing too many points. Yet they still sit at 5-9 on the season only a year after finishing 42-40 with an pythagorean won-loss record of 46-36.

What's the difference so far? Ivan Carter says there's something very wrong with Gilbert Arenas.

Gilbert's problems remain a mystery to me. With each passing game it seems that he's getting more and more caught up in the referees than actually playing. After the game, he talked at length about how the refs are calling the game different from last season, about how he can't "figure out" how a particular game is being called and how he can't wait until January when the refs find some consistency. This is disturbing on many levels but especially so because he's the franchise player and controls the ball most of the time. Basically, I have no idea what he's talking about half the time.

Gil's in his sixth season, he's a two-time all star and this franchise has deeply invested in him so perhaps it's time for him to focus on what's important and forget about the zebras. It's affecting his play and that in turn, is affecting this team.

Of all members of mainstream and independent media, Carter is probably the closest to the Wizards. If he has no idea what's going on with Gilbert Arenas, then I don't know who does.

There are a couple interesting theories in the comments section of Carter's blog entry. One commenter speculates that Arenas' scouting of officials' tendencies in the offseason has caused a phenomenon where "every time he drives to the basket he appears to be trying to get a 3 point play." Another speculates that "Gil usually uses the 'everyone is against me' thing as motivation, but lately, I think he's just getting too wrapped up in it. He's so focused on trying to be a super-star, and getting noticed for this and that."

I personally think that the major problem with Arenas right now is that he's stretched himself too far into other causes. There's no doubt that his antics (including promoting his Halo team and his blog, among others) allows Arenas to feel loved by a city who's been betrayed far too often, but Arenas is starting to get to the point where he can't concentrate mentally.

It seems wierd to say this, but Gilbert Arenas' plight reminds me of college students who succeed in high school, but struggle with grades in college. One would think that the students struggle due to increased academic difficulty, but the element that kills many college students (including me, to some degree) is the tendency to thrust yourself into so many clubs and extracurricular responsibility that you simply don't have time or mental capacity to work dilligently on anything. Eventually, the pressures of so many different activities crash together in one's head, making it difficult to completely focus on each individual one. Eventually, simple prioritizing is not enough to prevent your brain from overloading, and the only way out is to drop one of the activities.

Considering some of Arenas' past actions, he doesn't seem to have a brain that prioritizes well. Arenas tends to do what he feels without thinking the action through. You can only go back and look at his denial of the claim "quirky" to understand his self-awareness. This is not a knock on Arenas at all: in many ways, it is a blessing. He's an extremely kind soul who wants to pour himself into many causes, and he gives off a sense of genuiness that is so rare among professional athletes.

However, Arenas is facing the classic college student dilema. He knows he wants to be involved with many things, and he knows he wants to show genuine devotion to all of his causes. But just like the college student's sagging academic performance, Arenas is struggling to perform his best consistently in what matters most: on the court. His facade with the referees is an expression of personal confusion—he's stronger and faster than ever, so he believes it can't be his fault that he's been so inconsistent. The reality is that Arenas is often too subconsciously preoccupied in his head to perform as consistently as before.

So, even though we've seen Arenas antics produce some incredible material for the blogosphere, as a Wizards fan, I sincerely hope he takes down his blog, stops sponsering the Halo team, and try to focus on what's important.

Agree? Disagree? What's Agent Zero's problem this year?

Wizards 97, Hawks 96: Offensive aggression allows Wizards to win an ugly one

2006-11-28T23:48:00.000-08:00

It's one of the strangest lines you'll ever see, but in a game where both teams struggled to hold onto the basketball, Caron Butler's 21 point, 15 free throw performance in the win tonight is something that needs to be explored more extensively.

In their last two losses, the Wizards have suffered from a lack of aggressivness in taking the ball to the basket. The Wizards shot significantly more free throws than their opponents last season, but in losses to Memphis and Detroit, the Wizards did very little to debunk the popular idea that they are a soft jump-shooting team. As soon as shots stopped going in, the Wizards offense stopped working. Even the best teams can't win too many games scoring 80 points every game.

This backdrop is why Butler's performance tonight is particularly important to understand. He made more free throws tonight (15) than field goals (10). Instead of hoisting jumper after jumper in hopes of heating up, Butler made sure to attack the rim and get easy points at the free throw line. This in turn allowed the Wizards to win the game despite turning the ball over 21 times (this will be a subject of a future post) and getting outrebounded 44-38.

In terms of quantitative analysis, the Wizards +11 in points at the free throw line won them this game. The Hawks shot only 42 percent, but they still were +10 in points on field goals because they attempted 20 more shots. Combine that with a 15-6 advantage on the offensive glass, and it's safe to say that Atlanta's offense was working better than Washington's. Still, the Wizards were able to win this game because of their renewed offensive aggression. The Wizards' offense struggled with turnovers and a lack of flow, but because they attacked the basket with a renewed vigor, they were able to get enough to win.

Also, I can't recap this game without giving props to Jarvis Hayes. I've been hard on the guy, but he had a superb game tonight, pnroviding 9 points on 3-3 from three point range as well as superb defense on Joe Johnson when it mattered most. If Hayes could simply focus on playing his role and improving his shot selection, he could provide the type of bench spark this team desperately needs. When he's shooting 10 times in only 18-2o minutes, it's a problem. Tonight, he picked his spots well and made three huge treys.

Overall, there were lots of encouraging signs. The turnovers are a huge problem--one big enough to tackle in a future post--and the inability to score in the halfcourt at the end of the game is troubling, but the Hawks are a tricky team to play because they have a real star and a number of athletic surrounding pieces. The Wizards did not play their best game at all tonight, but because of a renewed focus on aggression (led by Butler), the Wizards found a way to win an ugly one.

Postgame thoughts? What do you guys think went well and what do you think still needs work?

Open Thread: Game 14

2006-11-28T14:37:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 14
Hawks (5-6) vs. Wizards (4-9)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

The Hawks haven't won at MCI/Verizon Center since 2003, and if that changes tonight, there will be serious problems. The Wizards desperately need wins this week against Atlanta and Charlotte at home to stop the bleeding. The Hawks started off 4-1, but have since lost 5 of 6, including a dreadful 98-79 loss to the Magic last Saturday that included an 11 point second quarter. Both teams are struggling right now and both could use wins tonight.

Hawks blogs: Impending Firestorm

The Hawks pose a lot of interesting problems on the defensive end of the court for the Wizards with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Johnson's the type of guard that is difficult for any team to stop, and the Wizards are going to have to stick DeShawn Stevenson on him and take their chances. Smith is a demon on the offensive glass, meaning the big guys really need to make an effort to clean up the glass.

In a lot of ways, the Hawks are Wizards-lite. The difference is that the Wizards have more reliable second and third options alongside their alpha dogs. Other than Joe Johnson, the Hawks are full of inconsistent performers. Guys like Smith, Lue, Josh Childress, and Zaza Pachulia are even more inconsistent than Wizards guys, if that's even possible.

On the other end, keep an eye on Jamison tonight. Without Marvin Williams, the Hawks have been going small with Smith at power forward. Smith is a great shot blocker, but I'm not sure he's such a great man defender. Jamison should have a ton of open shots tonight, so we'll see whether he can knock them down.

In the end, it should be a Wiz win, but it'll be pretty close.

Prediction: Wizards 107, Hawks 100

If you're online during the game, give a shout!

Quick Hits

2006-11-28T12:06:00.000-08:00

SLAM is giving Wizards center Etan Thomas an opportunity to write a regular column for the online section of their website. In his first article, Thomas discusses an interaction he had with a referee and his reactions to the referee's surprise that Thomas writes poetry.

We were playing a home game against Cleveland, and after a timeout a referee with dark, slicked-back hair (who shall remain nameless) approached me. He said that he had heard that I write poetry, have a book, speak at universities, am into politics, etcetera, and he asked me if this was true.

I replied, Yes.

To my surprise, he responded: “You’re not as dumb as you look.”

I turned toward my teammate Antawn Jamison, who also heard the exchange, and we both looked back at this ref with eyes of bewilderment, as if to say that we couldn’t have possibly heard him right.

He saw that I was in no way amused, without even the slightest hint of a smile, and attempted to clean up his statement, saying, “Well I think it’s great, I could never do anything like that…” I simply nodded my head and returned to the game.

Sometimes someone can make a statement that is so unbelievably blatant that it renders you speechless, left without a response or reaction, until you think about it at a later date. This was one of those times for me.

The rest of the article is very interesting and it ends with one of Thomas' trademark poems. Thomas is incredibly articulate and I recommend this column to any NBA fan.

Also, on the latest "Daily Fix" podcast from The Basketball Jones, they address the Wizards' disappointing 4-9 start. Skeets and Tas mostly attribute the struggles of the team to defense. Tas brings up the loss of Jared Jeffries, while Skeets discussed the overall team mindset and the lack of rebounding. They also touch on the loss of Darius Songaila and wonder whether Gilbert Arenas and his antics are a distraction.

Speaking of TBJ, Lowpost's Jason Gurney interviewed Skeets in the latest of his "Meet the Blogger" series.

Personally, I don't think a lack of defense can explain why the Wizards seem worse than last year. It can explain why they aren't any better, but defense was a problem last year and the Wizards still were a 42 win team with a point differential of a 47 win one. The problem to me really seems to be the complete inability to put together a complete game. The defense has played well in some games, the offense has played well in some games, but neither have come at the same time much this year. This is a team that could really use a shot in the arm off the bench to put the pressure off their starters.

Also, let's wait to see how the Wizards perform with this easier stretch coming up. If they can't get back close to .500 by the turn of the calendar year, then we can honestly say that the problems are substantial. Right now, it's much more difficult to tell.

Forget Offense and Defense: The Bench is the Problem!

2006-11-27T14:54:00.000-08:00

It seems wierd to say this, but let me be the first to do it.

Darius Songaila's injury and the effect it has had on the Wizards bench is the primary reason why the Wizards are 4-9.

Okay, maybe Songaila himself isn't the only culprit. Gilbert Arenas has been hot and cold all year. Antawn Jamison's shot has deserted him. The two have been inconsistent all year, and the overall defensive effort still needs some work.

Still, the injury to Songaila, while not playing a major role on its own, has exposed the Wizards absolute lack of a bench. It is my firm belief that this problem has caused all the other problems and needs to be fixed.

Commenter Mel Turpin had this to say.

One of the biggest problems with this team is a total lack of any fire power off the bench. Good teams in the NBA get thirty or forty points per game from their bench. The Wizards are lucky to get ten points.

I'd agree with the sentiment of the statement, but I'd slightly amend the meat of it. A bench doesn't necessarily need to provide scoring, and between Antonio Daniels and Jarvis Hayes, they usually get 10 points most games. What is necessary from a bench is a spark; a player who can play 20-25 minutes and potentially provide the necessary offense, defense, rebounding, or playmaking necessary to win a game. In lieu of one player, many teams like Dallas and San Antonio rely on a lot of bench guys to be successful.

Either way, you have to have one or the other to be a successful team. San Antonio makes up for the lack of star power with a ton of options, including Brent Barry, Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson, and Beno Udrih. Dallas is very much the same way, but they also have a potential impact player in Jerry Stackhouse. Phoenix relies on the offensive spark of Leandro Barbosa off the bench to win games for them. The Lakers are at least two deep at every position, and Orlando often gets more production out of bench players like Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling than their starters. Even Utah gets a lot of intangible qualities out of guys like Matt Harpring, Ronnie Brewer, and Paul Millsap, and this change has arguably been one of the catalysts to their sudden improvement. Good teams therefore either need to have one of their best players come off the bench (like Barbosa, Harpring, and Mike Miller on Memphis last year ) or have a multitute of options so that someone invariably emerges every night (the Dallas-San Antonio-LA Lakers strategy).

This is ultimately where the Wizards have failed this year. The offense and defense have struggled, but I think it's all tied back to the bench. Only 7 players on the Wizards have a PER (player efficiency rating) over 10. The Hawks, Nets, Heat, Bobcats, and Sonics are the only teams that have a similar lack of efficiency from their bench.

The Wizards bench can basically be summed up as follows.

Antonio Daniels: Nice player, a personal favorite, but best suited to being a 7th man. Probably isn't good enough to start on a playoff team. If there were 3 players as good as Daniels on this bench, it would be a solid unit, but there isn't.
Brendan Haywood: Pretty solid backup center, but way too inconsistent to provide a spark every night.
Jarvis Hayes: Has been really bad this year, with a PER under 9. He takes too many shots and doesn't make enough of them.
Michael Ruffin: No offensive ability, pretty poor defensive ability, average rebounder, commits tons of fouls, and the team's +/- with him on the floor stinks.
Calvin Booth: Michael Ruffin, but with slightly more defensive skills and worse rebounding skills.
Roger Mason, Donnell Taylor, Andray Blatche: Unproven.

With this cast of characters, the Wizards' bench fulfills neither requirement presented above. There are no consistent impact players on the bench, and there isn't enough depth to ensure that the team will get something out of this unit no matter what. Daniels comes closest to being an impact player, but he doesn't really add a new dimension to the team game like Barbosa, Millsap, Ben Gordon, or Jerry Stackhouse do. Haywood is a decent backup center who would be a real asset if the bench was deeper. Hayes and Ruffin receive too many minutes, and nobody else really plays much.

Coming into the season, this wasn't expected to be a problem. At the end of last year, a lack of a bench really killed the Wizards, and Ernie Grunfeld went seeing a remedy to the problem. Songaila and Stevenson were brought in, and combined with the continued maturation of Blatche and the healthy return of Hayes and Etan Thomas, the Wizards were all set to be two-deep at every position. Songaila in particular was a particularly good pickup; he probably would have averaged a solid 10 points and 7 rebounds a game in this system. He would have been a versatile impact player off the bench for the Wizards all year and would have singlehandily significantly upgraded a sore weakness for the Wizards.

Then, Songaila got hurt and threw everything off. Injuries happen, and I'm not blaming the Wizards season on an unfortunate event. But the Wizards have dealt with this setback horribly thus far this season, as Eddie Jordan's shortening of the rotation have put too much strain on the starters all season, which has caused them to press and be prone to spells of inconsistency.

Entering the season, a great point of comparison for the Wizards in terms of their benches were the Sacramento Kings. The biggest knock on Sacramento entering the season was their lack of depth, made possible by a bench that seemed to only include Kenny Thomas and John Salmons. Any injury to their top seven would have potentially killed them. As John Hollinger said:

The Kings are so lacking off the bench, with their best reserve a year ago ([Kevin] Martin) now forced to start. The frontcourt has obvious weaknesses, but the backcourt is no picnic either -- just to have a decent seven-man rotation would require either [John] Salmons or [Francisco] Garcia to play much better than a year ago, or [Quincy] Douby to hit the ground running.

So far this season, the Kings have suffered a loss from one of their top 7 (Brad Miller) and survived okay. Instead of shortening his rotation, coach Eric Musselman lengthened it, giving extended looks to youngsters such as Salmons, Garcia, and Ronnie Price and old relics like Corloss Williamson. The end result is that Williamson has experienced a revival and Price has emerged as a solid backup guard, thereby giving Sacramento more sources for the spark they desperately need. What was once a putrid bench is now a solid one now that Miller has returned to the lineup.

For the Wizards to improve and snap out of their slump, they need to develop the same type of bench Sacramento did when they lost Miller. Eddie Jordan needs to play the young guys more so they can gain experience where they can be potential sparks off the bench for the rest of the season. Instead of playing Michael Ruffin 8 minutes, why not play Andray Blatche? The kid is still raw, but the only way he will significantly improve is if he gets more playing time. Instead of playing the Big 3 over 37 minutes a game each, why not cut their time down to the 35 minute range and give the remaining minutes to Roger Mason and Donnell Taylor? Mason impressed Jordan in camp, but he barely even gets a look now. If he's not going to play, I don't see any reason to have him on the team.

Here's the current average minutes breakdown of the team, rounding up the decimals.

Jamison: 39
Arenas: 38
Butler: 37
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 27
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 18
Hayes: 16
Ruffin: 8
Blatche: 7
Booth: 6
Taylor: 5
Mason: 5

Here's what I would propose until Songaila comes back.

Arenas: 38
Butler: 36
Jamison: 33
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 25
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 20
Hayes: 12
Blatche: 12
Mason: 10
Booth: 8
Taylor: 7
Ruffin: 5

In each situation, the total minutes are the same, but the three youngsters, along with Haywood and Booth, see a hike in their minutes. To compensate, Jamison sees his MPG drop by 6 and Ruffin and Hayes see much less of the court than before.

More minutes for the youngsters is the key to improving this team. The Big 3 are currently forced to do too much, and when they're having a bad game, the team suffers significantly. The Wizards need to develop a decent bench, or else their fortunes will continued to be tied to Gilbert Arenas' shooting. The only way to do this is to give Blatche, Mason, and Taylor more playing time in the hope that someone can emerge as a decent threat, a la Ronnie Price. Only then will the Wizards make that jump into the East's upper eschelon.

More Julian Wright Love and a Preview of Tomorrow

2006-11-27T00:00:00.000-08:00

I was planning on writing a long post today about the consequences of losing Darius Songaila early in the season and it's effects on the Wizards bench even before commenter "Mel Turpin" brought it up. That comment only makes the point even stronger, and as such, it will certainly be discussed.

Still, today was a really bad travel day for me, so I'm holding that off for tomorrow. Apologies to all, but be sure to stay tuned.

In the meantime, I need to give more love to Kansas' Julian Wright. That was an insane game last night between Florida and Kansas, and I'm convinced this Wright kid (along with Taurean Green...he really impresses me) will have long futures in the NBA. I follow a ton of college ball, and those two were the ones I came away most impressed with last night. Anyway, here's a clip of Wright's two huge dunks in the Big 12 title game last year. Enjoy!

Be back tomorrow with a real post.

Who watched the Florida-Kansas game on Saturday night? How good can Julian Wright be? How much better would the Wizards be if they had Wright (IMO, not that much better, but still)?

Pistons 115, Wizards 111: I'm Getting Nightmares of 2000

2006-11-25T20:09:00.001-08:00

No doubt about it, this was a game they needed to have.

The Big 3 all had big games at the same time. Scoring, as a whole, wasn't really a problem. Gilbert Arenas had arguably his most complete game with 28 and 10 assists. Antawn Jamison had 22 and Caron Butler had exactly the type of game I know he can have with 25 points on 12 of 16 shooting. DeShawn Stevenson even chipped in with 15. Offense is solved, right? How could the Wizards lose?

Two uncharacteristic things killed the Wizards. The first was the huge free throw difference. Detroit is really more of a jump shooting team, yet they were able to get to the line 40 times! On the road! They were +18 at the free throw line, which is an insane difference. At some point, the Wizards need to be able to defend without committing too many fouls. Offensively, the Wizards only got to the line 23 times, which is a lot less than usual. Considering this also happened against Memphis, it may be the beginning of the trend.

The second uncharacteristic thing that killed the Wizards were the turnovers. The Wizards forced only 9 turnovers and had 17 of their own. This probably was the main reason why the Pistons were able to score at will on Washington last night. The Wizards were not able to get easy buckets in transition, which is something that has become a trend recently. However, the Wizards still usually take decent care of the ball, which makes the 17 turnovers tonight troubling.

This team is starting to remind me of the 29-53 team of 2000. I went to many home games that year, and after a while, each one started to mold together. The Wizards would fall behind early, be down like 8-10 at the half, and would see the lead baloon to 15 or so in the third quarter. Then, by the end of the quarter, the Wizards reserves would make a run and it would carry over to the fourth quarter. By the middle of the fourth, the lead would be down to 6 or so, and we'd honestly believe the comeback would continue. After a timeout by the opposition (this always happened after a Tracy Murray three...this was simply uncanny), the Wizards would miss a shot to cut it down further and the opponent would close them out eventually. I can't tell you how many games have followed that same pattern this year. It's just unbelievable.

I still think this ship can be rightened. The Wizards played pretty well tonight, to be honest. Detroit is just a super team playing really well right now. They could have beaten nearly any team tonight. There still is more that needs to be done, but the schedule calms down and the Wizards have a lot of home games coming up. A nice run is going to come sooner or later, just like it did last year.

I'd have more to say, but I need to keep watching this Kansas-Florida game. If only the Wizards had an athlete like Julian Wright on their team...

Postgame thoughts? What's your take on tonight?

Open Thread: Game 13

2006-11-25T13:54:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 13
Pistons (8-5) vs. Wizards (4-8)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Previous Matchup: Pistons 100, Wizards 91

Not much to say here...suffice to say this game is a must for the Wizards.

Pistons Blogs: Detroit Bad Boys, Need4Sheed, Motoring

I have honestly no idea what will happen with this team tonight. Part of me says they'll come out with a renewed passion at home and blow out Detroit like they blew out Cleveland last weekend. Another part of me says that they'll show up flat again and allow Detroit to grind away at them like last matchup. Being in a relatively optimistic mood, I'll take the former. I can't really explain why, but then again, very little is explainable right now with this team.

Prediction: Wizards 100, Pistons 95

GO WIZ!!!

If you're here during the game, give a shout!

Grizzlies 95, Wizards 80: Shoot Me Now

2006-11-24T21:47:00.000-08:00

By running this blog, I realize that I'm supposed to be some sort of quasi-expert on the Washington Wizards team. Granted, I'm not down there with the team, but I do what I can to stay on the beat from afar.

With that being said, I really don't have too many answers for tonight. It was like the anti-Wizards were out there. Instead of Washington driving and getting buckets at the free throw line to compensate for so-so shooting, it was Memphis sloppily driving to the rim and getting a majority of their points from the charity stripe. Looking at the game stats, the only one where Memphis had a clear advantage was in free throws (36 to 15), which is completely uncharacteristic of the Wizards. They were settling for too many midrange jumpers, and while it often seems like this happens every game, the reality is that the Wizards usually have a free throw advantage against their opponents.

Tonight, it simply wasn't happening. The Wizards are your classic rhythm team. If their jumpers are falling, then they can kick their offense into high gear. Teams have to acknowledge the jumper, which opens up the lane for easy buckets. The problem is that if you aren't hitting your jumpers, that lane never opens up.

Speaking of uncharacteristic, I have absolutely no answer as to what was wrong with Gilbert Arenas. All I can say is that he's a rhythm shooter, meaning he is prone to streaks where he's on and where he's off. Usually, however, Arenas can shoot himself out of them, but I guess he never got the chance to do it when he was on the bench in the third and fourth quarters.
That was probably the worst game Arenas has ever played, and he's given no indication that there was anything wrong with him, making it even wierder. He didn't admit that he was restless after sleeping three hours and bouncing around a basketball all night, so I don't know. Perhaps he was spending too much time worrying about blogs.

Ultimately, as much as I tend to advocate Arenas not shooting as much, the reality is that the Wizards need him to consistently score 25+ to win. That doesn't mean the Wizards should be over-reliant on Arenas--after all, Dallas has won 8 in a row and they need Dirk to score 25+ to win--but it just means that Arenas has to bring it every night. Nobody can really win against anyone if their star scores 3 points, and if there is a positive to take away from this, it's that the Wizards did hang around without Arenas and Antawn Jamison playing well. At least Caron Butler finally showed that he can be a monster.

Obviously, it looks bad now, and the Wizards are in big trouble. Judging from some of my comments in the game thread, I'm feeling the pain. Still, there are two good pieces of news. First, the Eastern Conference has been horrendous, which opens the door for a nice Wizards run once they play some Eastern Conference foes. Second, as Gilbert Arenas said to Marc Stein here, this isn't so different than last year.

Q: The last time we spoke, you said you thought the Wiz were about a year and a half away from challenging for the East title. But you guys haven't won a road game yet. How concerned are you with this start?
A: With this team, I'm never worried. I've been with this group for three years now and we've been through worse times. Last year, what did we start, 7-14?
(Editor's note II: It was actually 9-14 and 12-18, but you get his point.)

Hopefully, some home-cooking tomorrow should help heal the wounds. As crazy as it sounds, the Wizards don't need to do anything big to get better. All the parts have been there, just at different times and in different games. If they can simply put it all together, things can get better. I'm not saying they will, but as crazy as it sounds, the Wizards picked the right year to start 4-8 and score in the 80s in four road games.

Still, "The Takeover" needs to start tomorrow. Detroit has to be defeated. There is simply no alternative at this point.

GO WIZ

Postgame thoughts? The floor is open to venting.

Open Thread: Game 12

2006-11-24T14:10:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 12
Wizards (4-7) at Grizzlies (2-9)
Fed-Ex Forum
8 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

It's a must-win game tonight, as the struggling Wizards take on the even-worse Grizzlies tonight on the road. The Wizards have come close at Cleveland, Orlando, and Houston, but are still searching for their first road win. Tonight should be the best chance, as the Grizzlies are struggling and are among the worst teams in the league.

Grizzlies blogs: The Beale Street Beat

Memphis has really struggled this season after star Pau Gasol went down in the World Championships. Gasol is out until January, forcing the Grizzlies to rely on a lot of unproven youngsters, one of which, Kyle Lowry, is out for tonight and probably much longer.

That's not to say Memphis has not been competitive. They haven't been blown out of any game, with the 13 point loss to Charlotte being their largest margin of defeat. They have close losses to Cleveland, Houston, Dallas, and Sacramento, all of which are pretty good teams. Without Gasol, they've been forced to rely on youngsters like Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick, and Lawrence Roberts and aging veterans like Eddie Jones and Chucky Atkins.

Essentially, the Wizards should win, but I don't think it will be easy. Memphis will hang around long enough to make this a game, and the Wizards can easily be defeated if they let Memphis hang around. The key, once again, will be getting everyone going. Arenas and Butler should be able to explode for a ton of points, but Arenas can't be coming down and jacking up threes every time. On the other side of the ball, the Grizzlies run a disciplined slow-down offense, relying on perimeter shots to succeed. This means the Wizards need to continue to do a good job of fighting through screens and contesting every shot.

Ultimately, I expect a Wizards victory, but it will be closer than you think.

Prediction: Wizards 97, Grizzlies 89

If you're watching or listening, drop a comment with your thoughts.

[editor's note: The Basketball Jones apparently agrees with my prediction, as they've made this game their "Book it!" of the night.]

Why I Love Antonio Daniels

2006-11-24T11:02:00.000-08:00

There's a great article in the Washington Post today about Antonio Daniels and his offer to pay for the funeral of former University of Miami star defensive lineman Bryan Pata, who was shot earlier this year. Upon learning that Pata's family was having trouble financially, Daniels, spurred on by the memory of his brother Chris' sudden death in 1996 while playing for the Dayton Flyers, offered to lend a helping hand to the family.

"I was sitting there and all I could think about was his mother," Daniels said. "They were talking about how Miami was going to go ahead and play that next week, and all I thought was, 'What about her?' I thought about my own mother and what my family went through when my brother died. What happens is, life goes on and people forget about the family and the fact that the family is still struggling and life just goes on.
"The next day I'm sitting there getting dressed to leave for a game and I told my wife: 'This is crazy. People are going on with their lives and imagine how his mother must feel.' "
Daniels, who honors his late brother with three tattoos, decided to do something. The next day, through Wizards public relations director Zack Bolno, Daniels reached out to the Pata family and asked what he could do. When Daniels learned that the family has struggled financially, he offered $10,000 to help cover funeral expenses.

If you go to Daniels' website, there is a special page dedicated to the memory of Chris Daniels. I'd recommend reading both pieces, as they shed an incredible light on the persona of Antonio Daniels.

I'm not going to really add much about Antonio Daniels as a person. The article does a great job of painting a picture of AD, and Hoops Addict has more to say about that as well. I will take this time, however, to say why I love Daniels as a basketball player.

In my opinion, Daniels is the third most important player on the Wizards, behind Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. In the last two months of last season and the first month of this season, Antonio Daniels has arguably been the best sixth man in basketball. His stats may not be as good as Mike Miller's last year, and he probably won't win it this year if either Ben Gordon or Leandro Barbosa don't start for over half the year. But to me, it's a crime that Daniels has never won the sixth man award.

When you think of the ideal sixth man, there are a lot of things that come to mind. The late Red Auerbach was the first person to place an importance on a sixth man. On his Boston Celtics teams, the sixth man came in to provide energy and quick scoring ability. Many times, sixth men like Frank Ramsey and John Havlichek led the team in scoring and changed the tide of games. It's hard to argue that Ramsey or Havlichek was the best player on the team, but they still played a huge role on the team.

Nowadays, a sixth man's role is not so easily defined. You have your pure scorers like Barbosa and Gordon, but there are other ways a sixth man can help the team. Detroit's Antonio McDyess is an ace sixth man because of his ability to help out on the glass as well as score inside. Donyell Marshall and Brent Barry come in and simply hit perimeter shots, while Jazz rookie Paul Millsap provides rebounding and toughness. However, one thing that does bind every sixth man together is that they come in to provide a spark of energy, whether it be through scoring, shooting, rebounding, or defense/hustle.

What makes Daniels unique, however, is that he is able to provide a spark in multiple departments. He's instant offense off the bench, but he doesn't need the ball as much as Gordon to be successful. His tough drives and three point plays also provide the type of hustle and grit that can get the Wizards going. When the Wizards are stuck in jump-shooting mode, it is usually Daniels that brings them back (reference the Cleveland and Houston games). He also provides underrated perimeter defense and the type of veteran leadership that a team with an alpha dog like Arenas so desperately needs.

So why doesn't AD get more love? He's simply not as flashy as Gordon or as dynamic as Barbosa or Paul Millsap. He comes in there and simply does his thing night in and night out. As such, you're rarely going to see him on Sportscenter doing anything crazy. At the same time, however, it is a breathtaking drive to the basket that often ignites the Wizards. I routinely wonder how Daniels is able to finish the way he does. He's not slamming anything down, but he has spectacular body control, which allows him to finish around the rim without being called for charging fouls.

It doesn't seem possible that someone can not be flashy while still being an ace sixth man, but Daniels proves that the task can be done. Combine that with his veteran leadership and his incredible generosity off the court, and I'm proud to say that Antonio Daniels plays for my team.