Buried Treasure: A Pirates Blog

Pedro Alvarez's Early Season Slump

2013-04-19T18:31:00.001-04:00

After looking at Russell Martin’s start to the season, it’s natural that a fellow struggler who hit his first home run of the season against the Braves on Thursday night should follow. Many people saw Pedro Alvarez as one of the most important players on the roster if the Pirates are to be successful this season; however Alvarez will need to refine his approach at the plate if he’s going to hit for more than power this season.

When I looked at Alvarez prior to the start of last season I stated that even if Pedro did hit for power in 2012 it would likely be accompanied with a low OBP and a ton of strikeouts – and that he may also be better suited for a platoon. Alvarez went on to hit 30 home runs (.223 ISO) with a .317 OBP and 30.7 K% - with a .353 wOBA when facing right handed pitching and a .284 wOBA against lefties. If Alvarez is ever going to surpass those levels he will need to reduce the strikeouts; however the early signs have not been positive.

Alvarez has opened up the 2013 season hitting .104/.204/.167 over 54 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .171, which produces a park and league adjusted wRC+ of just 2. While Alvarez has not had a lot of luck (.133 BABIP), he’s struck out on 31.5% of trips to the plate (17 Ks in total, walking six times) and he’s not showing a lot of power – only one of his five hits has gone for extra bases (the homer against the Braves).

While Russell Martin has been very selective at the plate, swinging at just 36.5% of pitches seen, Alvarez has been aggressive. His swing percentage, a statistic that has started to stabilize, currently sits at 50.8%, which would be a career high. This aggressive approach at the plate would not be a problem if he was making contact; however Alvarez has whiffed at 19.3% of all pitches seen – the second highest swinging-strike percentage in the majors among hitters that would qualify for the batting title behind Colby Rasmus' 19.8 SwStr% (and well above his career SwStr% average of 13.5%). He’s swinging at some bad pitches, with an unsurprising cluster of breaking balls over the outside corner – Alvarez’s weakness:

While their overall offensive results have been similar, Pedro Alvarez has almost been the opposite of Russell Martin: he’s swinging and whiffing on a more frequent basis than he has over the course of his career so far; nonetheless his home run against the Braves again demonstrated his plus power. A high number of strikeouts are now what is expected from Alvarez along with hot and cold streaks; so it could simply be waiting for a hot streak for the strikeouts to be combined with power on consistent basis. Nonetheless, if Alvarez is going to surpass his 2012 numbers, his free-swing approach will need to be harnessed and his pitch recognition will need to improve, as swinging at breaking balls over the outside corner has been a long-standing weakness.

Highlighting Russell Martin's Plate Discipline

2013-04-19T14:31:00.000-04:00

When I wrote about the start of Russell Martin’s Pirates career at the plate yesterday, I stated that his low batting average on balls in play combined with his plate discipline indicated that he would likely see a turnaround in fortunes. What I didn't expect was to see an immediate example of how his selectivity at the plate will help him break out of his slump.

Martin hit his first Pirates homer in the second inning against the Braves. He took a first pitch fastball for a strike before taking three straight balls (a curveball sandwiched by a pair of fastballs) that were only just outside the zone. The fifth pitch (another fastball) was deposited into the left field seats:

Martin reached base twice more in the game; he was hit by a pitch in the four and then singled to third in the fifth before grounding out to third in the eighth. He saw 17 pitches in those four plate appearances and swung the bat just three times. The first chart below chart shows the pitches that Martin swung at last night – all three in the heart of the zone (the curveball charted outside the strike zone was actually the pitch that hit him) – while the second shows Martin's called balls and strikes against the Braves:

The hope is that Martin will build on last night’s home run, however for his luck to improve then he’ll need to tap into more of the power seen in his first plate appearance rather than failing to leave the infield with the other two balls that he put in play. Nonetheless, Martin’s plate discipline right now is a big plus, which is highlighted in the above chart, and it's likely to be the key to turning around his fortunes.

Russell Martin's Unfortunate Start To His Pirates Career

2013-04-18T18:55:00.000-04:00

Russell Martin was the Pirates’ big free agent addition over the winter, signing the largest major league free agent contract in club history. While his Pirates career his started slowly offensively, he has helped the club defensively; FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan looked at the impact that Martin has had with his pitch framing skills and noted a big change for the Bucs. However, as good as Martin could be defensively he will soon need to offer something at the plate in order for him to have value to the club.

Martin’s hitting .103/.205/.154 over 44 plate appearances with just two extra base hits (both doubles). His .177 wOBA it the third lowest on the team, which produces a park and league adjusted wRC+ of just 7, only hitting better than Clint Barmes (.150 wOBA, -12 wRC+) and Pedro Alvarez (.140 wOBA, -18 wRC+). Needless to say, Martin’s had a poor start offensively; although it is too early to make Rod Barajas comparisons.

A closer look does provide a lot of hope for a turnaround. He’s struck out just five times (11.4 K%), so the slow start is largely luck related. Batting average on balls in play is the statistic that many cited when looking at Martin’s potential at surpassing his .211/.311/.403 batting line in 2012. While his .222 BABIP was low last season, it’s made to look lucky by his .118 BABIP so far this season. However, one of the reasons why Martin’s balls in play average is so low is that he’s shown very little power. When balls have left the infield, Martin has failed to show even warning track power:

Martin’s BABIP is going to regress towards the mean; although it was always likely to be on the unlucky side given that he’s not had an above average batting average on balls in play since 2008. What Martin has not done in an effort to hit his way out of the early season slump is expand the strike zone; in fact he’s shown remarkable plate discipline given his lack of success at the plate, only swinging at a couple of bad pitches:

Martin is rarely swinging the bat (36.6 Swing%) – only ten hitters among those that would qualify for the batting title at this point of the season have swung the bat on a less frequent basis. His selectivity at the plate is further seen in his whiff rate as Martin has swung and missed at 3.8% of pitches seen (only 14 hitters have whiffed less frequently). However, Martin is also seeing fewer pitches than usual; he’s currently seeing 3.59 pitches per plate appearance, which would be a career low (although this statistic is more than 100 plate appearances from beginning to stabilize). All of this is over the small sample size of the season so far, so it will be interesting to see if Martin's current approach alters at all once his statistics begin to trend upwards.

While Russell Martin’s Pittsburgh Pirates career has begun slowly at the plate, the positive is that he is at least helping defensively. Regardless of Michael McKenry’s performance in the backup role, Martin’s salary means that he should see the majority of time behind the plate in any case. Nonetheless, with the low BABIP and controlled strike zone then it’s likely that Martin will soon see a turnaround in fortunes; although he will really need to show more power in the process.

Jonathan Sanchez's Pirates Future

2013-04-17T20:12:00.000-04:00

Prior to the suspension of Tuesday night’s game against the St Louis Cardinals, Jonathan Sanchez had given up two runs (one earned) over two innings – he gave up two hits while striking out three and walking just one hitter (with all the damage done in the first inning). With Francisco Liriano, Jeff Karstens and Charlie Morton either beginning to make rehab outings or close to it, the Pirates rotation has the potential to get overcrowded fairly soon. The question is where this leaves Sanchez in the future with the club.

Sanchez has made two other starts this season. In his debut against the Dodgers he gave up three earned runs in five innings, giving up six hits, striking out four and walking one. His second start was an ugly one against the Diamondbacks. He lasted just three and a third and gave up nine runs (all earned) on eight hits and four walks, striking out just two in the process.

While Sanchez has only just surpassed the ten inning mark (unofficially, given that the start against the Cardinals was rained out), he really needs to improve and quickly if he will retain a spot in the rotation when others are healthy. That said, it may still be a losing battle for a starting role; however the bullpen may be better suited for the left-hander in any case.

Sanchez has been much better when facing a hitter for the first time in a game over the course of his career with opposing batters hitting .220/.333/.364 against him first time up, which rises to .241/.339/.410 and .277/.366/.461 in the second and third plate appearances against him respectively. The shorter outing nature of relieving could help him improve on his numbers - he'd be able to pitch without worrying about fatigue - likely adding heat to his fastball in the process. The average velocity of his fastball/sinker has declined each year since 2009, with the slight increase this season likely due to the season being so young:

Sanchez is now pitching in the high-80s/low-90s and his fastball has topped out at 92.6 mph so far this season. In comparison, early in his career Sanchez’s average velocity was comfortably in the low 90s and he was able to reach back and hit 96 mph on the gun.

While pitching out of the pen may help Sanchez find some of the lost speed in his fastball, it would also limit his exposure to right handed hitters. Righties have hit him for a .339 wOBA-against (4.58 FIP) over the course of his career while lefties have a wOBA of .302 when facing Sanchez (3.74 FIP). He also has a career 2.66 strikeouts for every walk when facing a left-hander, compared to 1.63 strikeouts per walk against righties.

Jonathan Sanchez has always had swing-and-miss stuff, however he’s also always had issues with control. While he’s likely on borrowed time in the Pirates rotation; pitching out of the bullpen could be an option going forward and the move could help him mask his problems with the free passes. He could be an option to take Jeanmar Gomez’s role as the long-man if Gomez’s luck runs out (his current .250 BABIP is driving his 1.29 ERA); while Justin Wilson and Tony Watson both have options remaining if the club wants to stick with two lefties in the pen and keep hold of both Sanchez and Gomez. Nonetheless, Sanchez's future in the rotation is likely linked to the rehab schedules of Francisco Liriano, Jeff Karstens and Charlie Morton.

Starling Marte's Hot Start

2013-04-16T17:59:00.003-04:00

Through the first thirteen games of the season, Starling Marte has a triple slash line of .370/.404/.519 in 57 plate appearances, picking up 20 hits – five of which went for extra bases (three doubles, one triple and a home run) - and is currently on a nine-game hitting streak. Marte has been the Pirates’ best hitter so far; his .402 wOBA is almost 50 points higher than Travis Snider’s .355 wOBA.

Nonetheless, Marte is unlikely to sustain this level of success as his .487 batting average on balls in play will eventually regress to the mean (although this is fairly obvious). 28.2% of balls that Marte has put in play have been line drives and he’s been fortunate that many have fallen in front of outfielders. He’s hit few flyballs (with a FB% of 17.9%) and his extra base hits have come down the lines:

Marte has been able to reduce his strikeout percentage to 24.6% (14 times in total) from 27.5% in 2012, although this should not be seen as Marte being more patient at the plate: he’s only walked twice and he’s seen fewer pitches per plate appearance this season (3.74) than last season (3.91). However, the season is still very young and at this point the only statistic that has really begun to stabilize is a player’s swing percentage (which tends to become stable after 50 plate appearances).

Marte has been swinging the bat less frequently this season, down to 43.4% from 46.1% in 2012; although it is only a small decrease. This difference can be found outside the zone, with a 29.5 O-Swing% (down from 34.8% last season), which is right around the league average rate, and he’s also been able to make contact with 51.6% of pitches that he has swung at outside the zone. While this could be a step towards Marte becoming a more selective hitter, it will require more data before that conclusion can be made. He has still expanded the zone at times this season; with the majority of pitches that Marte has swung at outside the zone have unsurprisingly been changeups and sliders (two pitches that he was below average against last season according to pitch values):

While it’s unlikely to last at current levels, Starling Marte has been an offensive highlight so far this season; Andrew McCutchen is the only other regular who has been above average at the plate (.347 wOBA, 120 wRC+), with platoon players Travis Snider (.355 wOBA) and Garrett Jones (.349 wOBA) as well as backup catcher Michael McKenry (.582 wOBA) being the only other above average Pirates hitters. All of this is still over a very small sample size; however Marte may well be making progress at the plate and this possible increased selectivity is something that is worth monitoring as the season progresses.

The Polar Opposites of Pirates Pitching and Hitting in a Small Sample Size

2013-04-07T14:40:00.000-04:00

The Pirates offense has been that bad so far this season that it has overshadowed some very good pitching. The season is still very young and much will change, even over the next week, and not much can be garnered from this small sample size. However, what the early season statistics do show is the polar opposites of the club’s pitching and hitting so far in 2013.

Starting with the offense, through the five games the Pirates have hit .117/.185/.145. Their weight on-base average is .154, which equates to a -4 wRC+ (that’s minus 4). The Bucs are the only team in baseball without a home run and have shown very little extra base hit power (0.28 ISO). Only the Astros have struck out more frequently than the Pirates’ 28.9 K%. Needless to say, the Pirates have the worst offense in baseball over the first five games of the season. The only positive is that they will get better.

While the offensive statistics provides miserable reading, the club’s pitchers provides some fun with the small sample size of the season so far. Pirates pitching has essentially been the complete opposite of the offense. As a team, the Bucs have a 2.09 ERA, the second lowest ERA in baseball; a 2.59 FIP, the third lowest in baseball; they have struck out 27.1% of batters faced, the third highest strikeout rate in baseball; and walked only 6.6% of batters faced, tied for the sixth lowest walk percentage in baseball. While the low ERA is partly due to luck, with a .221 BABIP and 83.8 LOB%, the strikeout and walk rates (totalling at 4.09 K/BB) have been impressive thus far.

Nonetheless, regression to the mean should be expected with both the offense and the team’s pitching when the small sample size of the season is considered. A player's start to the season is difficult to judge going forward as statistics have not began to stabilize. Russell Carlton’s research, via D-Rays Bay, gives an indication as to when statistics become stable at an individual level:

Offense Statistics:

·         50 PA: Swing%

·         100 PA: Contact Rate

·         150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA

·         200 PA: Walk Rate, Ground Ball Rate, GB/FB

·         250 PA: Fly Ball Rate

·         300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB

·         500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate

·         550 PA: ISO

Pitching Statistics:

·         150 BF - K/PA, grounder rate, line drive rate

·         200 BF - flyball rate, GB/FB

·         500 BF - K/BB, pop up rate

·         550 BF - BB/PA

Offensively a hitter's Swing% the first to become stable; and the Pirates as a team currently have a 42.3 Swing% (which was 46.9% in 2012). The strikeout rate is the first to stabilize for a pitcher at 150 plate appearances, with Burnett just under a third of the way towards that total at 47 batters faced.

There is therefore very little that five games can show in terms of the full season; in fact the most telling lesson from the first five games is how unimportant a pitcher’s win-loss record is. A.J. Burnett has started the season 0-2, despite giving up just four runs over 11 innings; striking out 19 hitters in the process. The only reason why Burnett has been credited with two ‘losses’ has been due to the run support that he’s received over his first two starts to the season, with the Pirates failing to score while he’s been on the mound.

Five games into the season is not a time to overreact as much as it enough to believe that these results are the true talent level of a player going forward. The offense has completely overshadowed some very good pitching thus far, so the hope will be that the latter can continue. That said an offensive slump to begin the year is not what the management team needed, so it would be interesting to see how much patience the front office have going forward, other than Brandon Inge coming off the disabled list to replace Josh Harrison on the roster, as a player’s lack of options could play a part in any decision.

The Current Focus on Splits in Clint Hurdle's Line-Ups

2013-04-06T20:33:00.000-04:00

Clint Hurdle’s line-ups so far this season have had a focus on spits (with a lefty-righty balance against right-handed pitching). For example, the clean-up spot has been filled by Pedro Alvarez against right-handers and Gaby Sanchez against lefties, with Garrett Jones and Neil Walker hitting second against righties and Russell Martin against lefties (although Walker will hit second against Clayton Kershaw tonight). The only consistencies have been Starling Marte leading off, Andrew McCutchen hitting third and Clint Barmes eighth.

When looking at the line-up in my last post, it stuck me how few above average hitters that the Pirates have that have provided an above-average contribution against right-handed pitching, especially when the focus is on-base percentage, as well as a lack of power when facing left-handed pitching. Nonetheless, setting up line-ups with a player’s splits in mind could help the club progress towards having a league average offense (despite the slow start).

The league average batting line in 2012 was .255/.319/.405 (a .315 wOBA), which dropped slightly to .254/.318/.400 in the National League. Against right-handed pitching, the average triple-slash line was .255/.320/.406 in 2102 (.255/.320/.400 in the NL), which dropped to .253/.317/.404 (.251/.314/.401 in the NL) against left-handed pitching.

There is good reason for this split focused offense. Looking at Pirates hitters when facing left-handed pitching in comparison to the league average batting line of .253/.317/.404 in 2012, the club had seven hitters with an above average on-base percentage, with just four above average sluggers (Brandon Inge, John McDonald and Michael McKenry would make it a group of seven) – with Travis Snider and Starling Marte’s statistics coming with small sample size warnings:

	PA	BB%	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen	151	11.3%	.467	.677	.471
Travis Snider	34	2.9%	.382	.727	.469
Clint Barmes	110	11.8%	.373	.368	.331
Starling Marte	50	8.0%	.360	.682	.423
Russell Martin	149	15.4%	.356	.524	.379
Gaby Sanchez	111	11.7%	.333	.396	.316
Jose Tabata	93	8.6%	.326	.380	.313
Neil Walker	138	9.4%	.314	.288	.271
Pedro Alvarez	152	7.2%	.270	.379	.284
Garrett Jones	81	6.2%	.235	.297	.234

The larger sample size (link) offers similar results in terms of numbers; although it does highlight the potential contribution that Sanchez could provide when the club faces a lefty. Onto looking at Pirates hitters when facing left-handed pitching in comparison to the league average batting line of.255/.320/.406 in 2012, the Bucs have just four everyday players that provided an above average offensive contribution in 2012 (although McKenry would have joined the list if he was not Martin’s deputy behind the plate):

	PA	BB%	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen	522	10.2%	.381	.518	.385
Neil Walker	392	8.7%	.352	.472	.356
Pedro Alvarez	434	10.6%	.334	.499	.353
Garrett Jones	434	6.5%	.332	.556	.374
Jose Tabata	281	7.5%	.312	.339	.291
Travis Snider	151	10.6%	.305	.290	.270
Russell Martin	336	8.9%	.290	.352	.287
Starling Marte	132	3.0%	.277	.350	.275
Gaby Sanchez	215	5.6%	.251	.315	.250
Clint Barmes	383	1.8%	.243	.308	.240

Looking at the larger sample size (link), Jose Tabata has had an above average on-base percentage; however that’s the only difference between the smaller and larger sample sizes when it comes to above and below average hitters against right-handed pitching. What both splits show is that the club has limited above average offensive options (especially when facing right-handed pitching), with fewer options when it comes surpassing a .350 on-base percentage against either sets of pitchers.

On the current 25-man roster, the Pirates have just five hitters that were above average overall in 2012 – McCutchen (158 wRC+), Jones (123 wRC+), Alvarez (112 wRC+), Walker (111 wRC+) and McKenry (108 wRC+) – and it’s the same number when looking since 2010, with McKenry replaced with Gaby Sanchez (103 wRC+). What the above splits prove is that McCutchen is likely to be the only hitter (health permitting) that should provide an above average contribution against both left and right handed pitching, with first base also a possibility if Hurdle reverts back to the Jones/Sanchez platoon.

The offense has had a miserable start to the season, with the club hitting just .127/.195/.161 through the first four games of the season (.164 wOBA, 7 wRC+). It should be noted that the club’s offense also had a terrible start to the season last year (offensively the club looked historically bad in late-May and ended up hitting .243/.304/.395 (.304 wOBA) as a team by the end of the season), I would consider a heightened appreciation of splits as a sign of progression. The only problem is that the Pirates currently do not necessarily have the options to provide the amount of improvement that is required for the offense to become league average; however setting up the batting order with a player’s splits in mind is a step in the right direction - with a heightened focus on platoon situations being the next step.

A Look At The Current Batting Order

2013-04-03T19:01:00.000-04:00

Clint Hurdle has elected to continue with the Opening Day line-up for the second game of the season, despite the Pirates offense struggling in the season opener with Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija on the mound. While much of the focus centered around Gaby Sanchez’s presence ahead of Travis Snider, I believe that Hurdle’s line-up is really the bigger issue.

The main reason why I am looking at the batting order is due to Hurdle’s comments prior to Monday’s game. As I noted in my post after the game, I’m sure that I’m not the only one that was surprised to see the Garrett Jones hitting second due to his performance against right-handed pitching experiment continuing into the regular season. With Hurdle citing Jones’ OPS as the reason behind the decision – stating that he’s “trying to find the best combination to get men on base in front of Andrew [McCutchen], and stretch out the lineup, top to bottom” – he failed to mention his lead-off hitter as well as differentiating between OPS and on-base percentage.

Starling Marte is a speedy guy, however he’s not suited for the lead-off spot (at least right now). His low walk rate will likely prevent an above average on-base percentage. Placing Marte at the top of the order, especially against right-handed pitching, is really contradictory to attempting to “find the best combination to get men on base in front of Andrew [McCutchen]”.

Now onto Jones. His .888 OPS when facing right-handed pitching in 2012 was boosted by his slugging percentage. The fact is, Hurdle’s second best on-base threat (after Andrew McCutchen) against right-handed pitchers is currently batting sixth in the order:

2012:

	PA	BB%	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen	522	10.2%	.381	.518	.385
Neil Walker	392	8.7%	.352	.472	.356
Pedro Alvarez	434	10.6%	.334	.499	.353
Garrett Jones	434	6.5%	.332	.556	.374
Jose Tabata	281	7.5%	.312	.339	.291
Travis Snider	151	10.6%	.305	.290	.270
Russell Martin	336	8.9%	.290	.352	.287
Starling Marte	132	3.0%	.277	.350	.275
Gaby Sanchez	215	5.6%	.251	.315	.250
Clint Barmes	383	1.8%	.243	.308	.240

Since 2010:

	PA	BB%	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen	1525	11.2%	.365	.458	.359
Neil Walker	1229	8.3%	.346	.452	.347
Garrett Jones	1268	9.1%	.335	.488	.354
Jose Tabata	904	7.2%	.334	.368	.314
Pedro Alvarez	914	10.0%	.321	.453	.335
Russell Martin	968	9.9%	.318	.370	.307
Gaby Sanchez	1201	8.6%	.313	.395	.312
Travis Snider	568	8.1%	.309	.404	.312
Clint Barmes	1039	5.1%	.278	.346	.274
Starling Marte	136	3.7%	.276	.341	.272

Walker's OBP was 20 points higher than Jones' in 2012. He's better suited for the top of the order, with Jones batting behind both Walker and McCutchen. Some argue that the batting order matters very little, although this is dependent to the personnel involved. The gap between the most and least optimized line-ups is generally quite small, according to Baseball Between The Numbers it amounts to 26 runs over the course of a season (worth around 2.5 wins, which could turn out to be useful later in the year – especially to a GM appearing to be fighting for his job). Hurdle’s line-ups essentially match the standard line-ups as described by Scott McKinney for Beyond The Box Score when he looked at a sabermetric guide to management:

	Standard	Optimized
1	Speedy guy	One of the three best hitters (high OBP)
2	Good bat handler	One of the three best hitters
3	Best hitter	5th best hitter
4	Best power hitter	One of the three best hitters (high SLG)
5	Second best (contact) hitter	4th best hitter
6	Best remaining power hitter	6th best hitter
7	7th best hitter	7th best hitter
8	8th best hitter	Pitcher
9	9th best hitter	8th best hitter

The Pirates could take the optimized batting order a step further by having one line-up for when the club faces a right-hander and one for when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound. As can be seen above, hitting Walker sixth isn’t supported by his career numbers and should hit in either of the top two spots when facing right-handers (depending on McCutchen’s spot in the order); however against left-handed pitching the batting order could look very different:

Since 2010:

	PA	BB%	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen	483	12.0%	.413	.579	.421
Gaby Sanchez	433	12.5%	.387	.480	.377
Starling Marte	50	8.0%	.360	.682	.423
Jose Tabata	294	10.9%	.347	.384	.326
Clint Barmes	383	10.4%	.342	.370	.313
Russell Martin	384	14.3%	.341	.418	.335
Neil Walker	436	7.6%	.325	.363	.303
Pedro Alvarez	324	8.3%	.281	.353	.281
Travis Snider	139	2.2%	.252	.422	.290
Garrett Jones	383	5.0%	.240	.331	.251

Andrew McCutchen again tops the group in terms of on-base percentage; however the platoon splits show that a separate batting order against left-handed pitching could be beneficial. While potential platoons (Jones/Sanchez, Snider/Tabata) should carry the caution that some players do struggle in a part time role, everyday players like Alvarez, Martin and Barmes have been expectedly stronger against opposite-handed pitching and the switch-hitting Walker has been a better hitter against righties. The downside to two separate line-ups would come later in close games; when the club reaches bullpens later in the games then the batting order would not suit the relievers.

An optimized batting order is something that should probably not be expected; nonetheless the set-up against right-handed starters should have Neil Walker hitting towards the top of the order. It will be interesting to see if there will be much of a difference in the batting order when the Pirates face Travis Wood, a left-handed starting pitcher, in the third game of the season given that the numbers support Clint Hurdle juggling the line-up to take the platoon advantage (as well as the personnel in some cases). Hurdle’s line-ups seem to be frequently debated, with Gaby Sanchez picking up plate appearances against right-handers Travis Snider situation receiving the most attention early this season (at least on twitter); however batting order so far this season does raise some questions - especially after Hurdle's statistical justification to bat Garrett Jones second.

Notes After Opening Day

2013-04-01T19:25:00.000-04:00

The 2013 season did not begin in an ideal fashion for the Pittsburgh Pirates, dropping the opener to the Cubs while offering little at the plate. Nonetheless, one defeat doesn’t mean that the Pirates are going to struggle, much like a win today wouldn’t have meant that the Bucs were going to be contenders. The Pirates have a shot at bouncing back on Wednesday night, with Wandy Rodriguez getting the start against Edwin Jackson. Drawing conclusions on how the season is likely to pan out would be nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction at this point; however there are some noteworthy items after today's game:

While Travis Snider did look lost at the plate when he struckout pinch hitting in the 8th, Clint Hurdle stating that “it’s either second or sixth for Jones” does sound like the Gaby Sanchez at first base and Garrett Jones in right field line-ups would be a common occurrence. Hurdle cited Sanchez’s spring training statistics as the reason why he was in the line-up, despite the poor career numbers against right handed pitching (.313 wOBA). The status of the platoons will likely be seen in the coming games, however the only reason for Jones to ever hit as low as sixth in the order would be if a left-hander was on the mound (but that’s when he should be benched in any case).

I’m sure that I’m not the only one that was surprised to see the Garrett Jones hitting second due to his performance against right-handed pitching experiment continuing into the regular season, however Hurdle cited Jones’ OPS as the reason behind the decision – stating that he’s “trying to find the best combination to get men on base in front of Andrew [McCutchen, the No. 3 hitter], and stretch out the lineup, top to bottom”. Unfortunately, the on-base percentage part of Jones’ .888 OPS last season only amounted to a .332 OBP; meaning that Neil Walker would still be better suited for that role (.352 OBP) and a slugger like Jones being a better fit hitting behind a big on-base threat like Andrew McCutchen.

Building bullpens has been one of Neal Huntington’s strengths and the Pirates bullpen has a shot at being very good again. Justin Wilson (1.1 innings, 2 Ks), Jared Hughes (1 inning, 1 K) and Pirates debutant Mark Melancon (1 inning, 2 Ks) were impressive in relief of a very strong A.J. Burnett start (who also picked up 10 strikeouts).

The offense simply wasn’t there today, with the Pirates picking up 10 strikeouts. It wasn’t until Carlos Marmol attempted to close it out for the Cubs before the Bucs managed to score a runs. Still, it’s only one game and conclusions cannot be made at this point. There was not a lot to note from the line-up; McCutchen was the only player to pick up an extra base hit and reached base twice; Russell Martin may have gone 0-4 but he was the only starter to avoid striking out; and Starling Marte picked up a walk. The Pirates will have to be more patient at the plate, however, as after a 22 pitch first inning Jeff Samardzija only needed 88 pitches to get through the rest of his eight-inning outing – averaging at 12.5 pitches per inning.

Pittsburgh's 25-Man Roster Set For Opening Day

2013-04-01T10:06:00.000-04:00

The Pirates have finalised their 25-man roster ahead of today’s opener against the Chicago Cubs.

As expected, Charlie Morton, Francisco Liriano, Jeff Karstens and Brandon Inge will begin the year on the disabled list, with Inge retroactive to March 26^th and the others retroactive to March 22^nd. This means that Inge must remain on the DL until April 10^th, with the others eligible to return on April 6^th.

The Pirates had appeared to have no left-handed hitters on the bench (when the club faced a right-handed starting pitcher), however Garrett Jones is getting the Opening Day start in right field with Gaby Sanchez at first base – leaving Travis Snider on the bench:

LF: Starling Marte
RF: Garrett Jone
CF: Andrew McCutchen
3B: Pedro Alvarez
1B: Gaby Sanchez
2B: Neil Walker
C: Russell Martin
SS: Clint Barmes
SP: A.J. Burnett

Whether Sanchez is the everyday first baseman remains to be seen. Nonetheless, the Opening Day roster will probably look very different at the end of the month, let alone the end of the season. Brandon Inge will likely replace Josh Harrison on the bench when he comes off the DL, with Jeff Karstens and Francisco Liriano joining the rotation when healthy. Furthermore, the Gerrit Cole watch will begin early in the season; however I assume that he will follow the same timetable that Starling Marte did last season if all goes to plan.

Opening Day Roster:

Rotation:

Bullpen:

Catchers:

Russell Martin
Michael McKenry

Infielders:

Pedro Alvarez
Clint Barmes
Josh Harrison
Garrett Jones
John McDonald
Gaby Sanchez
Neil Walker

Outfielders:

Starling Marte
Andrew McCutchen
Travis Snider
Jose Tabata

Projecting The Offense: Right Field

2013-04-01T09:10:00.000-04:00

Right field is the toughest position to project; the Pirates entered Spring Training appearing to give the majority of playing time to Travis Snider, who is attempting to stick in the majors for the sixth time, with Jose Tabata backing him up – perhaps in a platoon. However, Garrett Jones will get the Opening Day start, with both Snider and Tabata on the bench. What is almost certain is that right field is a position that will be in a state of flux for the first half of the season at least.

Travis Snider:

2012 (Minors): 246 PA, 16 doubles, 0 triples, 13 home runs, .335/.423/.598, .435 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

2012 (Majors): 185 PA, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 4 home runs, .250/.319/.378, .307 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 312 PA, 19 doubles, 1 triple, 11 home runs, .278/.345/.468, .352 wOBA, 5 stolen bases

ZiPS: 497 PA, 27 doubles, 1 triple, 13 home runs, .253/.312/.403, .310 wOBA, 9 stolen bases

Oliver: 482 PA, 23 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs, .255/.319/.421, .320 wOBA, 9 stolen bases

Summary: Snider has a .248/.309/.415 batting line (.316 wOBA) in 1062 plate appearances in the majors. Both ZiPS and Oliver forecasts that Snider can match these numbers, while Bill James has the most aggressive projection (like with Starling Marte) and representing the upside, driven by the highest walk rate (9.0 BB%), lowest strikeout percentage (21.8 K%) and better luck (.332 BABIP). Snider is a .333/.412/.565 batting line in 797 Triple-A plate appearances and the hope will be that some of this minor league success will translate to the majors.

Jose Tabata:

2012 (Minors): 173 PA, 9 doubles, 0 triples, 0 home runs, .297/.353/.354, .327 wOBA, 5 stolen bases

2012 (Majors): 374 PA, 20 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs, .243/.315/.348, .296 wOBA, 8 stolen bases

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 353 PA, 19 doubles, 2 triple, 3 home runs, .278/.345/.377, .316 wOBA, 12 stolen bases

ZiPS: 580 PA, 31 doubles, 4 triple, 5 home runs, .262/.330/.366, .308 wOBA, 19 stolen bases

Oliver: 552 PA, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 8 home runs, .271/.338/.387, .319 wOBA, 19 stolen bases

Summary: While Oliver projects a small power increase, all three forecast that his luck will change – with his batting average on balls in play approaching his career .315 mark from the .287 BABIP in 2012. Bill James is the most aggressive in this respect (.319), resulting in the highest batting average and on-base percentage of the three systems.

Garrett Jones’ Opening Day start in right field is likely a result of Gaby Sanchez outperforming both Snider and Tabata during Spring Training. Sanchez hit .302/.415/.651 with four home runs, with Tabata (.269/.304/.442 with 1 homer) and Snider (.255/.333/.362 without a home run) lagging behind. Nonetheless, I'd expect the club will likely revert back to Snider as the primary option at some point; he's out of options so should be given the opportunity to stake a claim to regular playing time.

If Jones is given the majority of starts against right-handed pitching in right field, Snider’s role is likely to be limited – with Tabata receiving a playing time boost given Jones’ need to be platooned. Snider could therefore see some time as Marte’s backup in left field and in right field when Sanchez is given days off (with Jones deputizing at first base). The situation first base/right field will likely develop further as the season progresses, especially if this is a case where Sanchez is given the first opportunity for everyday plate appearances.

The problem with the projections for both Tabata and Snider is that only Bill James’ Snider prediction offers any sort of breakout – and a breakout from either Tabata or Snider (or Sanchez at first base) will be required to claim to the position on a full time basis at some point in the season. If any of these players struggle, Jerry Sands and Alex Presley represent the primary depth at Triple-A level and either player could force their way into the mix for starts with a strong start to the season. The concern is that both Snider and Tabata are out of options, which would mean exposing them to waivers if the club were to make a change.

The Pirates could use a host of different options in right field this season. Whereas Garrett Jones gets the Opening Day start, both Travis Snider and Jose Tabata will see time at the position. Injuries or a lack of production from any of these players will see others receive a chance at the position, with the Pirates potentially using five or six players in right this season. The hope is that Sanchez will breakout at first base or someone will claim the right field job as their own; however entering the season it does appear to be the position to strengthen at the deadline if the Pirates are in contention.

Projecting The Offense: Center Field

2013-03-31T12:41:00.001-04:00

Out of all of my Projecting the Offense series, this post is the easiest. Andrew McCutchen is the club’s best hitter and will lead the offense again in 2013. The only thing that could hold him back from being a prominent player in the MVP conversation is his team mates – given the BBWAA’s preference for players to win the award being members of contending teams.

2012: 673 PA, 29 doubles, 6 triples, 31 home runs, .327/.400/.553, .403 wOBA, 20 stolen bases

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 675 PA, 34 doubles, 6 triples, 24 home runs, .286/.372/.483, .363 wOBA, 22 stolen bases

ZiPS: 673 PA, 31 doubles, 6 triples, 24 home runs, .283/.372/.480, .365 wOBA, 23 stolen bases

Oliver: 626 PA, 29 doubles, 5 triples, 25 home runs, .290/.374/.500, .375 wOBA, 23 stolen bases

Summary: All three projection systems predict regression towards McCutchen’s career .290/.374/.484 batting line rather than a continuation of his 2012 season. His .375 batting average on balls in play is not something that is sustainable; however he has the speed to maintain an above average BABIP, just not to that level.

McCutchen took a positive step forward in 2012, hitting for more power than at any level during his career (.226 ISO). The combination of the power spike and high BABIP makes it understandable as to why many would predict regression; however, as Jack Moore of FanGraphs points out, McCutchen swung at more pitches over the plate than he had over the course of his major league career. Controlling his aggression will be essential for McCutchen in 2013, as he will face spells where he will be pitched around.

McCutchen’s 19.9 home-run-to-fly-ball ratio was not only career high but also the 19th highest HR/FB in the majors last season, although this figure is bloated due to a career low 34.3 FB%. Looking at ESPN’s Hit Tracker, only four of McCutchen’s 31 home runs were classified as just enough (in comparison Ryan Braun led the NL with 14 just enough home runs); so that combined with a career high 21.9 LD% does point to a sustainable ISO of around .200. While McCutchen may not surpass 30 home runs in 2013, he will certainly approach that level at the very least.

The only problem the Pirates have is that they need another Andrew McCutchen (or a team full). He’s the club’s best option for the lead-off spot and to hit in the heart of the order. While many would want McCutchen in a position to drive in runs, he needs men to be on base in order to do so. My personal preference would be to have McCutchen leading-off as his on-base percentage will be at least 50 points higher than what Starling Marte is likely to manage. Furthermore, the difference in the number of plate appearances for each spot in the order is usually around 18 trips to the plate which could be very useful later in games – and more Andrew McCutchen can never be a bad thing for the Pirates.

Whichever way you want to spell it out, Andrew McCutchen is the Pirates’ best hitter and one of the league’s top players. His BABIP does point to signs of regression overall as that will likely drop, so he will need to reduce his strikeouts (19.6 K% in 2012) and increase his walk rate (10.4 BB% in 2012) to maintain an on-base percentage of around .400. Each projection system listed above provides reasonable predictions for 'Cutch, especially when his career before 2012 is considered, although it would surprise no one if McCutchen surpassed these levels in 2013.

Projecting The Offense: Left Field

2013-03-30T20:25:00.000-04:00

When Starling Marte finally arrived in the big leagues last summer, he became the 28th player in major-league history to go deep on his first pitch seen. Marte really came as advertised; power, speed and great defense combined with little patience at the plate. While Clint Hurdle’s old-school approach to building a line-up will likely force Marte into a role that his skillset is not really suited for, he should still continue to develop into one of the more dynamic Pittsburgh Pirates hitters.

2012 (Minors): 431 PA, 21 doubles, 13 triples, 12 home runs, .286/.347/.500, .372 wOBA, 21 stolen bases

2012 (Majors): 182 PA, 16 doubles, 6 triples, 5 home runs, .257/.300/.437, .316 wOBA, 12 stolen bases

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 551 PA, 28 doubles, 11 triples, 15 home runs, .297/.336/.479, .350 wOBA, 31 stolen bases

ZiPS: 578 PA, 27 doubles, 14 triples, 11 home runs, .264/.311/.428, .317 wOBA, 24 stolen bases

Oliver: 602 PA, 27 doubles, 9 triples, 16 home runs, .268/.317/.436, .325 wOBA, 27 stolen bases

Summary: All three projection systems predict plenty of power from Marte; however his on-base percentage will be luck dependant. Bill James has the most aggressive projection, driven by the highest walk rate (5.3 BB%), lowest strikeout percentage (21.4 K%) and better luck (.360 BABIP). Oliver likely forecasts the most reasonable projection for Marte, with Bill James’ being the upside.

Starling Marte enters the season as one of the offensive question marks. He was solid in his major league debut, but that was over a small sample size of just 182 plate appearances. That said, he did demonstrate the skills that forced his call up to the majors. He showed good power (.180 ISO), both for extra bases and the long ball. His speed was also as advertised; hitting six triples and stealing twelve bases (although he was caught stealing on five occasions). However, the biggest issue with Marte is his plate discipline, which limits his offensive performance.

Marte has never been a player that walks a lot; his highest walk percentage was at Triple-A last season (6.5%) – not surpassing the 5% mark at any other level. He also combines this with a strikeout percentage above 20% (with the 17.5 K% at Double-A in 2011 being the outlier). It means that Marte will require luck with balls in play for his on-base percentage to be above average, signalling that he would likely be better suited to hit lower down the order (despite his speed). The problem is that the Pirates really do lack a an alternative not named Andrew McCutchen to fill the lead-off spot, although Clint Hurdle does tend to send out more conventional line-ups and Marte is his best speed option for the role.

He did show a rather big platoon split, but again the small sample size has to be considered. Marte had a .423 wOBA against left-handers over 50 plate appearances, with a triple slash line of .318/.360/.682, which dropped to .236/.277/.350 (.275 wOBA) in 132 plate appearances when facing right-handers. Looking at his minor league splits (from Minor League Central); Marte has shown very little platoon splits over the last two years in the minors:

Split	PA	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
v L	253	.211	.360	20.9%	6.3%	.302	.348	.513	.861
v R	755	.178	.373	18.5%	4.5%	.314	.362	.492	.854

While Marte had a little more luck and struck out less when facing right-handed pitching aiding the higher batting average and on-base percentage, he displayed more power against left-handed pitching (which shouldn't be surprising as hitters typically to perform better against opposite-handed pitchers). What the above does indicate is that some regression towards the mean should be expected against both right and left handed pitching.

With his power and speed combination, Marte will likely be one of the club’s more dynamic and exciting hitter this season. After a solid arrival in the major leagues, if Starling Marte can breakout in 2013 he can possibly hit his way to contract extension discussions - with the Bill James projections being a distinct possibility.

Projecting The Offense: Shortstop

2013-03-29T11:59:00.000-04:00

Clint Barmes will enter the season in his final year of the two year, $10.5M contract that he signed in November 2011. With no obvious internal replacement and a weak free agent market at shortstop next winter, he could very easily play his way into a contract extension. However, in order to do so, Barmes will have to provide more of an offensive contribution that he managed in 2012.

2012: 493 PA, 16 doubles, 1 triple, 8 home runs, .229/.272/.321, .260 wOBA, 0 stolen bases

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 441 PA, 21 doubles, 1 triple, 9 home runs, .233/.286/.353, .273 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

ZiPS: 475 PA, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 9 home runs, .237/.291/.353, .280 wOBA, 3 stolen bases

Oliver: 502 PA, 20 doubles, 1 triple, 10 home runs, .234/.297/.349, .283 wOBA, 3 stolen bases

Summary: All three projection systems forecast improvement at the plate for Barmes in 2013, although that’s not really a bold prediction. Still, with a sub-.300 OBP likely this season from Barmes, he’ll have little overall offensive value.

Clint Barmes joined the club as a defense-first shortstop. He was signed to provide a big improvement over Ronny Cedeno, after the club declined his $3M option; however that did not prove to be the case in Barmes’ debut season. While he shone defensively (10.6 UZR), as expected, he was a downgrade offensively (Cedeno’s wOBA in 2011 was .276). FanGraphs and Baseball Reference disagree over which player was more valuable (Cedeno in 2011 or Barmes in 2012); FanGraphs version of WAR indicated a slight downgrade (Cedeno 1.1 fWAR, Barmes 1.0 fWAR), while Baseball Reference shows a decent upgrade (Cedeno 0.82 rWAR, Barmes 1.29 rWAR). Either way, Barmes’ bat prevented him from providing the type of value that the Pirates require; limiting him to right around market value (and the Bucs need more than market value per WAR).

While many did predict an offensive decline from the .244/.312/.386 he hit with the Houston Astros in 2011, due to him being a pull hitter moving to a ballpark with such an expansive left field, I doubt that many would have predicted how bad Barmes' was at the plate in 2012. Out of 265 players with at least 300 plate appearances in 2012, only three had a lower wOBA (Brendan Ryan, Dee Gordon and Josh Thole). Furthermore, only ten players had a lower walk rate than Barmes’ 4.1 BB% and he was in the bottom 25 in isolated power (.092 ISO). He’s destined to be the club’s number eight hitter in the line-up this season; however the numbers are not all negative from an offensive standpoint.

Barmes' splits in 2012 do offer some offensive hope - at least on a part time basis. He hit .274/.373/.368 (.331 wOBA) against left-handed pitchers last season (110 PA), walking on 11.8% of trips to the plate. In comparison, Barmes hit .217/.243/.308 (.240 wOBA) when facing right-handed pitching (383 PA), taking the free pass on just 1.8% of trips to the plate. Over the course of his career he has a fairly big platoon split (a .339 wOBA against lefties and a .285 wOBA against righties), which would have likely pushed him to a platoon if it was not for his defensive prowess at shortstop.

The acquisition of John McDonald is a curious one in that respect; adding a backup shortstop with a worse bat than Barmes seems like a flawed approach. A switch or left-handed hitting shortstop would have been an ideal addition over the winter (such as Maicer Izturis), even if the club elected against a full time platoon; although after the market thinned out then the club could have elected to give Jordy Mercer the opportunity to audition for the full time role at short next season. At some point in the season, the club may look to find an offensive improve at the position at least on a part time basis, so Mercer, Chase d’Arnaud or Ivan De Jesus Jr could force their way to Pittsburgh (or the club could look externally for an upgrade).

The depth of the Pirates line-up is going to depend on the opposition’s starting pitcher and it is largely up to Clint Barmes to prevent the bottom of the order becoming the black hole it was in 2012. It’s hard not to expect some regression towards the mean against righties from Barmes this season – it would be almost impossible for him to walk less and he could receive more luck with balls in play (.266 BABIP against right-handers in 2012). That said, Barmes is a below average hitter who was acquired for his defense – so his offensive contribution is going to be limited.

Projecting The Offense: Third Base

2013-03-27T20:01:00.004-04:00

Pedro Alvarez took a step forward in 2012 after a miserable 2011, hitting 30 home runs on his way to becoming one of the strongest hitters in the Pirates line-up. While it appears that Alvarez will begin the season as the Pirates clean-up hitter, he will need to continue to progress at the plate this season if he is going to find success in this role.

2012: 586 PA, 25 doubles, 1 triple, 30 home runs, .244/.317/.467, .335 wOBA, 1 stolen base

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 597 PA, 29 doubles, 2 triples, 29 home runs, .257/.336/.481, .349 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

ZiPS: 610 PA, 26 doubles, 2 triples, 29 home runs, .236/.315/.451, .327 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

Oliver: 548 PA, 24 doubles, 2 triples, 22 home runs, .234/.313/.427, .320 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

Summary: The projections are split for Alvarez. Bill James predicts a step forward while ZiPS and Oliver forecast regression. Both Bill James and ZiPS anticipate that his home run power can approach the 30 homer mark again, while Oliver projects a decline.

Inconsistent projections are a sign of Alvarez’s career so far: solid debut in 2010, forgettable 2011, power-driven bounce back 2012. He was very streaky last season, which is one of the issues that he needs to iron out this season – especially if he is to settle into the clean-up role. While Alvarez has a noticeable career platoon split with .335 wOBA when facing right-handed pitching (.353 wOBA in 2012), dropping to a wOBA of .281 against lefties (.284 wOBA in 2012); if he is going to make significant steps forward Alvarez will have to reduce his strikeout numbers.

Alvarez has struck out on 30.7% of trips to the plate and swung-and-missed on 13.3% of pitches seen over the course of his career; although he has taken the free pass on 9.6% of trips to the plate. His plate discipline splits highlight his problems when facing left-handed pitching: in 2012 his strikeout percentage was 38.2%, more than 10% higher than his 28.1 K% when facing right-handers, and he walked less frequently against southpaws (10.6 BB% against righties and 7.2 BB% against lefties).

Alvarez swung at 47.0% of pitches and made contact with 70.9% of them – the eighth lowest contact percentage among qualified hitters in the majors last season. Below is a chart of pitches and locations that Alvarez swung at last season, with chasing many pitches well below the strike zone:

The below swing-and-miss PITCHf/x hitter profiles from Baseball Prospectus add context to the above. They highlight that high fastballs, low breaking pitches and changeups on the outside corner were Alvarez’s biggest problems – highlighting that his problem pitches in 2012 were the same as his issues in 2011:

Fastballs:

Offspeed pitches:

Breaking pitches:

Whereas the number of strikeouts will likely limit Alvarez's production, the positive is that when Alvarez makes contact he hits for a lot of power. His .223 isolated power ranked 24th among qualified hitters in the majors last season (albeit only third on the team behind Garrett Jones and Andrew McCutchen). He is entering the 2013 season in a much different fashion to this time last year; there are fewer question marks and no debate over whether he belongs in the majors. Nonetheless, if he cannot reduce the strikeouts then Alvarez will have to rely on luck with balls in play and an increased walk rate to have an above average on-base percentage and progress further at the the plate in 2013.

Projecting The Offense: Second Base

2013-03-25T18:11:00.000-04:00

Neil Walker is firmly entrenched as the Bucs second baseman and he’s accumulated 8.5 wins above replacement since he converted to the position in 2010. Offensively, only four second basemen that would have qualified for the battle title surpassed Walker’s park adjusted wRC+ of 111 in 2012, only dropping to seventh on the list over the 2010-2012 period with a 112 wRC+ (.336 wOBA). While Walker has become a solid contributor offensively, there is an area where he could improve.

2012: 530 PA, 27 doubles, 14 home runs, .280/.342/.426,.334 wOBA, 7 stolen bases

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 647 PA, 40 doubles, 2 triples, 17 home runs, .275/.337/.435,.336 wOBA, 9 stolen bases

ZiPS: 617 PA, 35 doubles, 3 triples, 16 home runs, .270/.332/.430, .328 wOBA, 8 stolen bases

Oliver: 584 PA, 29 doubles, 3 triples, 15 home runs, .270/.332/.423, .331 wOBA, 8 stolen bases

Summary: The projections for Walker are fairly safe; they’re right around his career numbers. Interestingly, all three projection systems are predicting a little more isolated power from Walker in 2013; however they are also predicting a slightly lower on-base percentage – due to a little less luck with balls in play.

If Walker is going to provide more value than the 3.3 wins above replacement (according to FanGraphs) that he was worth in 2012, he has two areas where he can improve: defense and performance against left-handed pitchers. Walker has progressed immensely at second base since he moved to the position on a full time basis in 2010 – both visually and statistically. UZR rated him as above average for the first time in 2012 (1.4 UZR), although this statistic is prone to year-to-year fluctuations and he’s still not had an above average season according to DRS. If he can remain around average defensively, he's probably a lock for a three win season.

Walker’s power numbers took a nice step forward overall in 2012 and his HR/FB ratio jumped to 11.2%; however all of his home run power came when facing right-handed pitching. He could still make strides offensively if he can get close to eliminating his platoon split – or the club could improve the offense as a whole by sitting the switch-hitting Walker against some left-handers. Walker hit just .246/.314/.288 from the right side of the plate in 2012 (.271 wOBA), with a batting line of .267/.323/.360 (.301 wOBA) over the course of his career when facing lefties (in comparison, Walker’s wOBA when facing right-handed pitching was .356 in 2012, with a career wOBA of .345).

Looking closer to Walker’s 2012 splits highlights how finding power when facing left-handers is the key to his improvement. He may have also hit for a lower batting average when facing southpaws; however luck played a big part. His batting average on balls in play dropped from .342 against right-handers to .279 against left-handers. He also walked more (9.4 BB% v 8.7 BB%) and struck out less (13.8 K% v 21.3 K%) when facing left-handed pitching. While he also didn't hit for a lot of power in 2011 (1 home run, .081 ISO), Walker did hit left-handers for power in 2010 (.170 ISO with 3 home runs).

FanGraphs recently ranked Pirates second basemen sixth in their Positional Power Rankings, highlighting how good Neil Walker has been in comparison to other Bucs second basemen over the past 25 years. Walker has been very solid at the plate since he arrived in Pittsburgh for good in 2010, however he could take a further step forward if he can improve his numbers when facing left-handed pitching. Nonetheless, second base is one of the few areas of concern for the Pirates – in 2013 and beyond.

Projecting The Offense: First Base

2013-03-24T12:18:00.000-04:00

The Pirates will begin the year with Garrett Jones platooning with Gaby Sanchez at first base. If Spring Training line-ups are anything to go by, Sanchez projects to hit in the clean-up spot when the club faces a southpaw, with Jones hitting in the fifth spot against righties. It’s a situation that could provide the club with a lot of value if both players can produce in the role, with Sanchez being the bigger question mark as Jones is will begin his third year in a platoon role.

Garrett Jones:

2012: 515 PA, 28 doubles, 3 triples, 27 home runs, .274/.317/.516, .352 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 445 PA, 27 doubles, 1 triple, 20 home runs, .254/.315/.454, .331 wOBA, 4 stolen bases

ZiPS: 482 PA, 29 doubles, 2 triples, 20 home runs, .253/.313/.446, .324 wOBA, 5 stolen bases

Oliver: 483 PA, 28 doubles, 2 triples, 20 home runs, .253/.318/.443, .328 wOBA, 4 stolen bases

Summary: All three projection systems predict a power drop from Jones in 2013. His home run to fly ball ratio spiked to 17.1% in 2012 from 11.0% and 11.2% in 2011 and 2010 respectively, so a decline probably should be expected - although it should be noted that he performance against southpaws dragged his HR/FB ratio down a little. Jones picked up 81 plate appearances against left-handers last season due to injuries and lack of production from other players forcing him into a full time role, which may drop in 2013 if Gaby Sanchez can settle into a platoon role. It’s also worth noting that Jones’ career line against right-handers is .279/.348/.504 (.365 wOBA), so there is room for Jones to outperform his projections.

Gaby Sanchez:

2012: 326 PA, 16 doubles, 7 home runs, .217/.279/.341, .272 wOBA, 1 stolen base

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 394 PA, 22 doubles, 11 home runs, .263/.343/.418, .330 wOBA, 3 stolen bases

ZiPS: 541 PA, 29 doubles, 1 triple, 14 home runs, .254/.326/.405, .318 wOBA, 3 stolen bases

Oliver: 564 PA, 29 doubles, 1 triple, 17 home runs, .258/.333/.422, .329 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

Summary: All three projection systems predict an all round improvement, although Bill James probably gets the closest to the number of plate appearances. Sanchez will enter 2013 in a full-time platoon for the first time, so unless either he or Jones are moved or Jones picks up an injury, reaching 500 plate appearances seems impossible right now.

Why the first base platoon may find success:

Quite simply, players generally hit opposite handed pitchers better and both Jones and Sanchez have a history of hitting opposite handed pitchers much better. As noted above, Jones has a career .365 wOBA against right-handers and Sanchez has a career line of .291/.385/.484 (.377 wOBA) against left-handed pitchers (as opposed to a .248/.314/.398 triple-slash line (.313 wOBA) when facing righties). Both players have weighted on-base averages above .360 over the course of their careers, so noting that only 10 first basemen (11 with Jones) that would have qualified for the batting title had a wOBA above .350 last season indicates the potential that a successful first base platoon would have.

Why the first base platoon may not find success:

While Jones is entering his third season in a platoon and proved that he can produce in this role, it’s Sanchez’s first. The Pirates will be hoping that he can also end the year in a platoon, something that he’s been unable to do in each of the last two seasons – first with Matt Diaz in 2011 and then Casey McGehee last season. Many players struggle in a part time role, so Sanchez’s adjustment to the platoon will be key to the success of the platoon. The Pirates know full well how that adjustment could negatively affect the performance of the hitter, as seen with McGehee, Diaz and Steve Pearce (among others).

Sanchez may also face some right-handers when the designated hitter is introduced during the four road series in AL ballparks (the first being against the Detroit Tigers at the end of May). There currently projects to be no left-handed hitters on the bench (although there may be by the end of May) and he’s the better defensive first basemen of the pair (with a career 3.6 UZR/150 compared to Jones’ -8.6 UZR/150 at first base), so Sanchez could very well pick up some plate appearances with Jones as the DH, while I’d expect Jones to remain on the bench with a left-hander on the mound.

The potential is certainly there for the Pirates to have one of the more productive first basemen in the league, albeit in a tandem. Sanchez already began to bounce back after a miserable start to his 2012 season with the Miami Marlins, hitting .241/.323/.397 after the trade. He now has to adjust to playing on a part-time basis; if he has success then the Pirates will finally find value from a platoon at third attempt.

Projecting The Offense: Catcher

2013-03-23T20:11:00.002-04:00

Russell Martin is the first player up as I look at 2013 projections. He received the largest major league contract that the franchise has ever given a free agent to upgrade the club both defensively and offensively. He is also the major/only addition to a below average offense, so will need to improve on his 2012 performance if the Pirates are going to see the upgrade that the team as a whole requires if the club will continue to progress in 2013.

2012: 485 PA, 18 doubles, 21 home runs, .211/.311/.403,.316 wOBA, 6 stolen bases

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 524 PA, 22 doubles, 16 home runs, .242/.340/.394,.322 wOBA, 8 stolen bases

ZiPS: 466 PA, 19 doubles, 12 home runs, .238/.329/.373, .310 wOBA, 7 stolen bases

Oliver: 484 PA, 21 doubles, 16 home runs, .244/.333/.408, .325 wOBA, 5 stolen bases

Summary: Both Bill James and Oliver project an overall offensive improvement, not by a significant amount but an improvement none the less. ZiPS project a small decline, linked to the larger home run decrease. All three have predicted that Martin will fail to reach the 20 home run plateau this season.

Why Russell Martin may improve in 2013:

Many pro-Russell Martin articles, blog posts and tweets have pointed to his 2012 batting average on balls in play as the single biggest reason why he could and should progress offensively in 2013. All three projection systems listed above point to an improvement on his .222 BABIP from last season, the lowest mark in the in the majors among hitters with a minimum 450 plate appearances. He still walks a lot, so I would personally project him to be among the team leaders in on-base percentage with the luck on balls in play boost.

Why Russell Martin may not improve in 2013:

Martin is moving from Yankee Stadium, a park that favours the home run hitter, to the pitcher friendly PNC Park. ESPN’s Park Factors from last season points to a large home run swing between the two fields, with PNC Park receiving a favourable rating for doubles:

	Runs	HR	Hits	2B	3B	BB
Yankee Stadium	0.992	1.143	0.927	0.881	0.423	1.008
PNC Park	0.764	0.631	0.871	1.037	0.718	0.796

While Martin tends to pull the ball, he also has opposite field power. Every ball that he pulled for a home run last season would have cleared the fences in Pittsburgh under the same conditions; however the short porch in Yankee Stadium bulked up his long ball total last season:

The Bench:

Michael McKenry enters the season as Martin’s primary backup. He’s received more than 200 plate appearances in each of the last two seasons, covering for injuries in 2011 and Rod Barajas’ ineffectiveness at the plate in 2012. If McKenry can repeat his .233/.320/.442 batting line (.330 wOBA) then he will have a lot of value backing up Martin, although it’s unlikely that he will receive as many at-bats with Martin as the primary option behind the plate.

The Pirates will hope that Russell Martin can be the type of two-way catcher he was earlier in his career, however it’s unlikely that he will reach his 2007-2008 levels again. I would personally favour the Bill James/Oliver projection for Martin over his 2012 batting line; there’s almost no possible way that he could be as unlucky at the plate next season, while the bigger home field will also likely reduce his home run total and increase his doubles total at the same time.

The Case For Jordy Mercer

2013-03-21T18:43:00.000-04:00

Many have seen the acquisition of John McDonald as a sign that Jordy Mercer is likely to begin the year at Triple-A.GM Neal Huntington linked the move to Chase d’Arnaud’s injury, with the logical assumption being that Mercer’s April role would be as the Indianapolis Indians’ starting shortstop. Nonetheless, this does not necessarily need to be the case.

With McDonald all but guaranteed a place on the roster, despite his lack of ability at the plate, it leaves Mercer battling with Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge and Ivan De Jesus Jr for the final infield bench spot. The latter two players would need to be added to the 40-man roster, Inge prior to March 26^th otherwise he could opt out of his deal. Given the favoritism shown to Harrison over Mercer last season, when the rookie spent too much time sitting on the bench with the light hitting Harrison collecting plate appearances in his place; Mercer may well find that his immediate future lies in the minors.

Mercer didn't hit a lot last season in the majors, batting .210/.265/.371, although he also didn't play a lot (just 68 plate appearances). Even if he is headed to Indy, it is not due to his performance this spring. He’s hit .409/.576/.636 with a triple and a home run, with a team leading eight walks and just three strikeout. It's onlt Spring Training, so all the 34 plate appearances show is that he’s not done anything to deserve to lose a job off the bench.

Many arguments for a Mercer demotion would be that it allows him to play every day, receiving consistent at-bats to aid his development rather than spend game-after-game-after-game on the bench in the majors like he did last season. The fact is that there should be plenty of plate appearances available for him in the majors. I have looked at platoon situations a lot on this blog and this is part of the role that Mercer fill this season; both Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker could, and in some match-ups should, be given days off against tougher left-handed pitchers (as both have had their troubles with southpaws):

2012:

	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
Pedro Alvarez	7.2%	38.2%	.171	.303	.284	78
Neil Walker	9.4%	13.8%	.042	.279	.271	69

2010-2012:

	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
Neil Walker	7.6%	14.3%	.095	.305	.304	90
Pedro Alvarez	8.3%	38.0%	.144	.321	.281	74

While it’s too early to give up on either Walker or Alvarez as full time options for the club, I do think that the Pirates offense can be improved this season by limiting Alvarez and Walker’s exposure to left-handed pitching (with both players always starting when the club faces a right-hander). By sitting either player, it would allow Mercer to gain major league experience. Players tend to hit opposite handed pitchers better in any case and Mercer’s minor league numbers match up with the general rule – below is his performance in the minors over the last two seasons (courtesy of Minor League Central):

	PA	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. LHP	211	.155	.316	13.7%	10.0%	.289	.367	.444	.811
vs. RHP	576	.176	.278	16.3%	6.1%	.255	.316	.431	.747

While Mercer has been good against left-handers in the minors, he’s been solid-yet-unspectacular against right-handers – only really hitting them for power. Ordinarily, he’d be a player that would be heading towards being a platoon option despite the power against righties; however Clint Barmes is no ordinary hitter. Barmes has a career triple slash line of .240/.285/.369 when facing right handed pitchers, which dropped to .217/.243/.308 last season – highlighting the room for improvement. Again, it shouldn't be the case that Mercer would form a full time platoon at short, Barmes’ defensive prowess still has value, however on a part time basis he would have a shot at outperforming Barmes’ .240 wOBA against right-handers in 2012 despite his minor league numbers (that said I’d expect Barmes to improve on his 2012 numbers).

By acquiring John McDonald, the Pirates have opted for defense off of the bench to cover for a defense-first shortstop. This means that the other infield option should be able to provide at least something with the bat, which in-turn ought to rule out Josh Harrison. While Brandon Inge can offer the ability to hit left-handers when Alvarez or Walker are given days off, he can’t provide offense at the position where the need is greatest for the Bucs. Not only could Jordy Mercer provide depth off of the bench at three positions, he could audition for a full time role in 2014, which would be useful when considering the lack of shortstop depth on the free agent market next winter.

Pirates Acquire John McDonald

2013-03-20T14:10:00.001-04:00

The Pirates have acquired 38-year-old backup infielder John McDonald from the Arizona Diamondbacks, according to Ken Rosenthal. Jon Heyman reports that the Bucs will send a player to be named later to the Diamondbacks in return. With the 40-man roster full, the Pirates placed infielder Chase d'Arnaud on the 60-day DL to make room.

McDonald is in the second year of a two year, $3M contract, earning $1.5M in 2013. He doesn’t hit a lot, although he does have some very occasional pop, doesn’t walk a lot and doesn’t steal at all; last season he hit .247/.296/.380, above his .239/.276/.331 career line, pulling six home runs to left field. His value comes from leadership and being a veteran presence in the clubhouse, if you believe in these as having value, and, most notably, defense – especially at shortstop. McDonald has a career 7.6 UZR/150 at shortstop in 555 games, so will provide a strong back up defensively behind Clint Barmes.

With McDonald likely guaranteed a place on the bench with Michael McKenry and half of the first base platoon, leaving Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Ivan De Jesus Jr and Brandon Inge battling for the final infield bench spot. Inge and Harrison likely have the advantage, given their experience playing in the outfield; however I’d still like to see Mercer be given more of a shot this year with a view on him taking over from Barmes at short next season.

Buried Treasure at All Sports Talk

2013-03-08T15:10:00.002-05:00

Buried Treasure were approached by All Sports Talk to provide the Pittsburgh Pirates preview as part of their look ahead to the 2013 Major League Baseball season. Below is an excerpt from the article, so please visit All Sports Talk to read the remainder of the preview, as well as the rest of the NL Central:

Offensively, at least, the Pirates appear to be a boom or bust club – with the respective performances of Pedro Alvarez, Russell Martin, Gaby Sanchez, Clint Barmes, Travis Snider and Starling Marte being the main question marks. Can Pedro Alvarez sustain success, avoiding slumps that derailed him at times in 2012, so that he can produce in the clean-up spot? Will Martin’s .222 BABIP regress towards the mean so that he can improve his .211/.311/.403 2012 batting line? Will Sanchez be able to produce as part of the first base platoon? Barmes was above average against left-handers last season (.331 wOBA); however can he hit right-handed pitching and be productive at the plate as well as on the field? Is this finally the year that Snider puts it all together in the majors – at the sixth time of asking? And can Marte adjust to hit major league pitching and find success in the lead-off spot? At the very least the club appears to have a solid defensive unit; nonetheless they will have to improve on an offensive unit that combined for a .304 wOBA (90 wRC+) last season if the club will be competitive in 2013.

We’d like to thank Aaron from All Sports Talk for giving Buried Treasure the opportunity to provide the Pirates preview.

Pirates Sign Jose Contreras

2013-02-24T09:16:00.000-05:00

The Pirates have signed veteran right handed reliever Jose Contreras to a minor league deal. He reported to camp earlier today.

Contreras is coming off back-to-back seasons that have ended prematurely due to elbow problems, the latter resulting in Tommy John surgery, undergoing the procedure on June 20 last year. Bill Brink reported that he’s thrown off a mound three times so far as part of his rehabilitation process, however it would be unlikely if he will be seen in a Pirates uniform prior to June – given the usual 12 month rehab schedule.

The Phillies converted Contreras into a full time reliever in 2010 and the results were positive. He had a 3.34 ERA over 56.2 innings with 57 strikeouts and just 16 walks. His performance was supported by FIP (3.27) and xFIP (3.29); however his 2.87 Skill-Interactive ERA indicates that he pitched better than his ERA shows (SIERA attempts to take balls in play into account and Contreras had an on-the-unlucky-side .318 BABIP).

Since 2010, Contreras has suffered with elbow issues. He only pitched 14 innings for the Phillies in 2011 and was one out away from reaching that mark in 2012. It’s not really a situation that provides much excitement – and that’s prior to factoring in that Contreras will turn 42, maybe prior to completing his rehab. That said it’s still a no-risk situation for the Pirates – with the potential of Contreras returning to his 2010 levels and becoming a strong bullpen option for Clint Hurdle.

Buried Treasure Exclusive Interview: Kirk Singer

2013-02-21T17:44:00.001-05:00

By now, it's pretty clear what this series is about. This is the fifth installment of an interview series that poses questions to members of the Pirates organization and gets answers back. First was pitcher Michael Colla. Outfielder Mel Rojas Jr. followed him. Third was pitcher Zack Dodson. Fourth, pitcher Mike Jefferson. Now, infielder Kirk Singer. Enjoy after the jump.

Buried Treasure: Starting off at the beginning of your pro career, you were drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates. At that point, the Pirates were mired in losing and were one of the most ridiculed sports franchises in America. Did you have any worries about joining the Pirates organization?

Kirk Singer: Honestly, that thought didn't even cross my mind. I wasn't even thinking in terms of the major league affiliate at that point, I was simply happy to be drafted by an organization that caters so well to their farm system, like the Pirates do.

BT: From a scouting perspective, give me your personal take on your strengths and your weaknesses.

KS: My strengths: From a makeup perspective, I'm mentally tough and I'm able to get the most out of myself when I need to - if I only have 60% that day, then you're gonna see 100% of that 60%. From a physical standpoint, my strengths are my arm strength and ability to play the left side of the infield. At the plate, it's my ability to be a situational hitter and get my job done so the big guys behind me can do their job.

My weaknesses: I'm a streaky hitter, that at time struggles with consistency. My swing can be too long, which stems from the fact that I'm skinny – my size is also a weakness - so I have to manipulate the barrel a little more the most. I do like to use my size as a chip on my shoulder.

BT: Do you have a favorite part of baseball? Being at the plate, out in the field, or on the basepaths?

KS: Out in the field, that is where I truly take pride in doing my job. I like to think that I do it better than most.

BT: Looking at your stats, you had issues with strikeouts at both State College and West Virginia, but you seemed to do much better in Bradenton. Can you talk about that? Did you change anything in your approach?

KS: First off, I personally don't feel that the strikeout rate stat is an important one - or at least as important as everyone makes it out to be. That said, yes I did strike out more at the lower levels because I didn't have an actual two-strike approach. Instead, I stayed with the same swing and approach regardless of the count. As I moved up the ladder, the coordinators stressed a two-strike. I really bought into it, and it helped. I owe my success to them.

BT: If you can, elaborate on what you mean by your statement that the strikeout stat is over-emphasized.

KS: If you're up at the plate worrying about not striking out then you are up there with a passive approach. Hitting is an aggressive act. There's such thing as having a great at-bat that results in a strikeout. Now granted, sometimes a situation calls for a simple ground orfly ball and a strikeout is not an option, but besides that, an out is an out. I hear bloggers and computer guys talk about the strikeout rate stat often when it's actually a rarely talked about stat on the field.

BT: Have the Pirates indicated to you where they want you to start this coming season or do you have any idea on your own?

KS: I won't get an indication usually until the last week of spring training. Obviously, I hope to in Altoona this year as soon as possible. However, I think it's realistic to assume I'll start in Bradenton with the hope that I can earn a promotion. All that said, if I come out hot in spring training, who knows how things will shake up. Ultimately, I have a very solid trust in the Pirates to know where I need to be.

BT: What have you been doing this offseason to prepare for the season? What are your goals for this season?

KS: I've had a solid training regiment this off season and I feel very confident about it. Although I don't lift the heaviest weights, I've been lifting smart. My group of ballplayer friends and I have been at the field and in the cages just about every day getting prepared as well.

My goals are to be more consistent at the plate and be more in control of my emotions on a night to night basis in an effort to be more consistent. Another goal is to end up at Altoona, all while doing everything I can to win games for the team that I am on.

BT: Do the Pirates as an organization put any emphasis on winning in the minor leagues, or is it all about player development from your experience?

KS: We put a lot of emphasis on winning on a nightly basis, with the hopes that at the end of the week and season, player development is the ultimate result. It's always re-stated that all we want to do is win in Pittsburgh, but the way to do that is by learning how to win at the lower levels.

BT: Of the home parks you've played in during your time in the Pirates organization, do you have a favorite one?

KS: Nothing compares to the State College field/facility so far, I loved it. However, Bradenton and the surrounding areas is my favorite place to live; it feels closer to home for me. The people in West Virginia were extremely supportive, so there's been a positive at each stop so far.

BT: The big and potentially overblown story of the past season outside of the major league collapse has been the Hoka Hey “circus.” Can you and will you comment on that?

KS: The part that I went through, it really was a good team building week for the players and it gave us some really good stories and built bonds that will last for a very long time. Also, not much phases you after you've been through a bunch of tough workouts such as the ones went through. Never did I think I was put in any harm or forced to do anything. At the end of the day, it's a fun thing to look back on.

BT: Do you have any information or stories you can tell me about any of your teammates? Here's your chance to poke fun at someone.

KS: Off the top of my head, no, at least none that are appropriate for me to share.

BT: Going back a bit to your college days, you went to Long Beach State, known for recent baseball alumni Troy Tulowitzski and Evan Longoria, among other things. Did that history have any impact on your or do you have any other comments?

KS: It had a huge impact. I wanted to go there since I was born. I was a bat boy during the Coach Snow glory years. Evan and Troy are friends of mine now, as we all share the same agent. Both are very helpful and always are there if I need them. I strive to be like both of them on and off the field.

BT: Are there any other sports you are good at or enjoy playing other than baseball? How about watching?

KS: I surf and golf; both are passions of mine and I try to do both every chance I get. I watch any sport I can, although my favorite to watch is baseball.

BT: Last question, what's your golf handicap?

KS: I'm about a 5 handicap.

2013 Draft: Under the Radar Prospects

2013-02-19T16:36:00.001-05:00

Come June, MLB Draft headlines will be dominated by elite players and known names taken at the top first round. Those players will be thrust into the spotlight, expected to provide their respective teams with wins, homeruns, and all-star appearances. Many of them will but not all-stars are drafted in the first round of a draft. Not every valuable major leaguer was a once a big-time draft prospect. Some guys fly under-the-radar up until they are drafted, even on the way to a productive major league career. The four guys profiled below are draft prospects who aren't considered elite draft prospects at this time. A strong spring could propel them into that stratosphere or they could be potential diamonds in the rough for a team to take in the later rounds come June.

Ryan Tella

Measurables: 6'0, 175 lbs
Bats: R, Throws: R
DOB: 05/18/1991
Position: OF
School: Auburn (Junior)

Tella was drafted in the 12th round by the San Francisco Giants in 2012 after being drafted in the 34th round by the Minnesota Twins in 2011. In both instances, Tella declined to go pro. That may pay off come June when Tella could find himself in the top three rounds of the draft. Tella doesn't have loud tools that make him stand out; but he does have a variety of baseball skills that could make him valuable. He's got a short, compact swing that should allow him to hit for average. He's also got a good plate discipline, although he will have to polish his two-strike approach. Tella also has good bat speed that gives him more pop than is expected considering his size. Defensively, Tella has the ability to stick in centerfield and has an above-average arm. Overall, he could develop into an adequate lead off option at the major league level.

Trey Williams

Measurables: 6'1, 210 lbs
Bats: R, Throws: R
DOB: 03/09/1994
Position: 3B
School: Junior College of the Canyons (Freshman)

About this time last year, Trey Williams was considered a potential top ten pick overall in the 2012 draft as a bat-first third baseman coming out of high school. However, winter turned into spring and summer and Williams saw his stock drop until he was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 11th round. Williams did not sign and also didn't fulfill his commitment to Pepperdine, instead choosing to go the Junior College route with an eye on the 2013 draft. When he's on, Williams has plus power and a solid glove at third-base. When he's not, his attitude becomes an issue as does his pitch recognition. The overall offensive potential will most likely result in Williams being drafted higher than the 11th round this coming June.

Stephen Alemais

Measurables: 6'0, 175 lbs
Bats: S, Throws: R
DOB: Unknown
Position: SS
School: All Hallows High School (NY)

The first thing that stands out about Alemais is his glove. There's no doubt he will be able to stick up the middle defensively long term. He's athletic and smooth, with soft hands and plenty of arm for shortstop. Questions about Alemais revolve around his ability to hit. He's not particularly large and injuries have hampered him recently in his high school career, so there's little information if he'll be able to hit for enough power to make the big league level. The level of competition in New York has not helped Alemais stand out either. A strong spring could shoot him up draft boards, but either way some team will like the glove enough to draft him high in June and then hope the bat develops into something passable.

Scott Moss

Measurables: 6'6, 195 lbs
Bats: L, Throws: L
DOB: Unknown
Position: P
School: Deland High School (FL)

Moss fits the mold of a projectable high school pitcher. Not even weighin 200 pounds, Moss towers over almost everyone, standing at 6'6. The young left-hander already has good present velocity as he can touch 90 mph with his fastball. He also features a curveball that's the definition of inconsistent, but also flashes plus on occasion. Moss has the size and arsenal to gain serious helium this spring if he shows more on the radar gun. Even if that doesn't happen, his frame and present stuff will make him quite the intriguing draft prospect. Some team will take him and hope physical maturity brings them a front-of-the-rotation starter.

Hurdle To Sign Pirates Extension

2013-02-18T18:23:00.001-05:00

The Pirates are close to extending Clint Hurdle to a contract extension for 2014, with an option for 2015. He was entering the final year of the three-year deal, so the extension buys perceived stability for Hurdle.

The players seem to love Hurdle, as do upper management, so it’s not really surprising that the club wanted to keep him around for longer. However, he’s had one winning season in ten (and that season was when he took the Rockies to the World Series) over the course of his managerial career. With the Pirates he’s overseen two good first halves that were followed by second half collapses. He’s had a 151-173 record as Pirates manager over a period that has seen the club progress from 57 win in John Russell’s final year in Pittsburgh, to 72 win in his first year and 79 wins last season.

Many have seen today’s news as a non-event. It’s commonly believed that if Neal Huntington is removed as that club’s GM at the end of the season, it will be the start of the clear out that will include Clint Hurdle. Nonetheless, it’s strange timing to extend the manager that has overseen two straight second half collapses - the Pirates are yet to play a game in 2013 so his situation should really be seen as the same as it was at the end of last season. The front office had a season to see if the team could finish this year, so could have waited to assess Hurdle's contractual situation at a later date.