Program Related Publication Feeds

Israel and the Palestinians: The Issues that the Obama-Netanyahu Meeting Failed to Address

pmeylan — Tue, 10 Nov 2015 00:00:00 -0500

There is no better way to pick a fight in Washington than to address the most sensitive issues affecting Israeli and Arab relations. Few other subjects begin to be as polarizing, or lead to the same degree of almost instant misinterpretation.

The Military Balance in a Shattered Levant

Mon, 15 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The war against ISIL and the civil war in Syria have highlighted the importance of the military balance in the Levant and the extent to which it has an impact on Iraq and the Gulf, the flow of global energy exports and the world economy, and international terrorism.

The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability

Thu, 18 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.

Israel and Hamas: Escalating to Nowhere, Yet Again

Thu, 31 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

As of July 31st, the fighting between Israel and Hamas was in its 24th day. Israel was calling up 16,000 more troops and its ground forces were seeking to destroy at least 32 major tunnel complexes.

Hamas and the New Round of Fighting in Gaza: Both Sides are Escalating to Nowhere

Thu, 17 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The key question in any war – in starting it and throughout the conflict – is how will this war end? Ever since 1967, the answer in the case of Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, has been by pausing and then resuming in a different form with the same result. In the case of the fighting in Gaza, changes in tactics and technology have simply escalated to nowhere.

Gaza: The Human Dimension

Fri, 11 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The new round of fighting in Gaza shows every sign of entrenching Israel and the Palestinians into hardline positions, making it impossible for Hamas to evolve into a movement that can accept Israel’s right to exist, making life even harder for the Palestinians in Gaza, and ending in a strategic stalemate than further reduces the prospects for any form of peaceful development.

Lebanon at the Crossroad: Assessing the Impact of the Lebanon-Syria Insecurity Nexus

Wed, 26 Feb 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Lebanon has been a chronic US foreign policy challenge in the Levant since the Eisenhower Administration. However, given the country’s centrality to regional security politics and Iran’s support for the Shi’a militant group Hezbollah, the US cannot avoid looking at Lebanon as yet another arena of competition with Iran in the broader Levant.

The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

sherry — Mon, 21 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair is issuing a new, expanded edition of its overview of The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey. This analysis is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120514_MENA_Stability.pdf

The "Arab Spring" Becomes the "Arab Decade"

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It is now all too clear that the “Arab Spring” is much more likely to be the “Arab Decade.” The pattern of political unrest that began in 2011 is driven by a mix of political, demographic, and economic issues in each country that has experienced serious unrest will take at least a decade to resolve in a form that can bring lasting stability.

Instability in Syria

ian — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Syria’s stability and its role in regional security politics have become steadily more uncertain since early 2011. The country has now experienced eight months of popular protests. Despite a lack of political cohesion or unity of purpose among the country’s opposition forces, rural areas and smaller cities continue to experience increasingly armed unrest.

GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and U.S. Extended Deterrence

sherry — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke chair has just published a new report entitled “GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and US Extended Deterrence” which is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/110202_GCC_Secur_US_Extended_Deter.pdf.

The Influence of Regional Military Threats on Israeli Security

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The beginning of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks highlights the uncertainties affecting Israel’s security – both at present and in the future. The Burke Chair has prepared a new analysis of the overall pattern of regional threats that affect Israel’s security interest, of which the peace talks are only part.

Strategic Competition With Iran: The Military Dimension

ian — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Iranian Strategic Competition with the US: The Military Dimension

The Arab-Israeli Military Balance in 2010

Tue, 29 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Major changes are taking place in the Arab-Israeli military balance.

Israel as a Strategic Liability?

ian — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

America’s ties to Israel are not based primarily on U.S. strategic interests. At the best of times, an Israeli government that pursues the path to peace provides some intelligence, some minor advances in military technology, and a potential source of stabilizing military power that could help Arab states like Jordan.

Options in Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

During the early days of his administration, President Obama had said he would give Iran until the end of 2009 to change their policy on nuclear weapons development. As reported by Reuters on Jan 29, 2009, the U.S.

Iran Status Report

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

US policy towards Iran requires more than dialogue. It requires careful consideration of Iran’s evolving military capabilities and the range of threats it can pose to its neighbors, the wider Middle East, and to the flow of world oil exports.

Iran's Political Future After Khamenei's Friday Prayer Endorsement of Ahmadinejad

sherry — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

We need to be very careful not to rush out ahead of events in judging what is happening in Iran.

What Next With Iran?

sherry — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

It is hard to counsel patience, particularly in a climate of artificial deadlines, instant media, and steadily larger gaggles of squawking heads. So far, however, President Obama has shown the right degree of restraint, while laying the groundwork to react as the outcome of events in Iran become clear enough to decide on the best policy.

Iran, Israel, and the Effects of Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Much of the debate over proliferation focuses on the possession of nuclear weapons rather than their use in warfighting and their effects. History is a grim warning, however, that deterrence does not always work and rational bargaining often fails. Abdullah Toukan and Anthony H.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

sherry — Fri, 22 May 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world’s attention has focused on Iran’s missile developments and possible nuclear capabilities. Yet this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

Obama, Netanyahu, and the Future of U.S.-Israeli Relations

sherry — Fri, 15 May 2009 00:00:00 -0400

President Barack Obama’s meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raises some of the most serious issues in U.S.-Israeli relations. It is premature to judge how the Netanyahu government will deal with either the Arab-Israeli issue or Iran, but both could be major sources of tension if the two countries do not go deeper than their usual dialogue.

Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 00:00:00 -0400

During the last several months, the Burke Chair has carried out a detailed examination of Iran’s programs involving missile and weapons of mass destruction. The key drafts involved are available on the CSIS web site at:
http://www.csis.org/burke/reports/
A final comprehensive report will be published this summer as CSIS book by the Praeger Press.

The "Gaza War"

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 00:00:00 -0500

One can argue whether the fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is a "war" or should be seen as just one more tragic surge in violence in the decades-long struggle between Israel and the Palestinians. It is, however, the first major armed struggle between Israel and Hamas, as distinguished from conflicts between Israel and the PLO and Fatah.

The War in Gaza

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0500

The Israeli-Hamas War, and there is little else that it can be called, has now lasted two weeks. Israeli jets have flown some 800 strike sorties, and the IDF has pushed deep into Gaza.

The Fighting in Gaza

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0500

The fighting in Gaza is already a major human tragedy for the Palestinians.

Israeli-Syrian Air and SAM Strength Analysis

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0500

The relative balance of Israeli and Syria air combat capabilities has long been a key factor shaping both the level of deterrence in the Arab-Israel conflict and the outcome of any conflict.

The Israeli and Syrian Conventional Military Balance

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0500

The armed forces of Israel and Syria have evolved in response to continued tension and the prospects for conflict between the two countries. This report summarizes the development of each country’s conventional military strengths and weaknesses in force strength, force quality, capabilities, and leadership.

The Israeli and Syrian Conventional Military Balance

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0400

The armed forces of Israel and Syria have evolved in response to continued tension and the prospects for conflict between the two countries.

Israeli and Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Both Israel and Syria have long been involved in creating weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them. The attached two reports look beyond the narrow issue of nuclear weapons, and summarize developments in each country’s full range of weapons of mass destruction -- including chemical and biological weapons -- and delivery systems.

The Lessons of the Israel-Hezbollah War

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Beyond Annapolis

Mon, 03 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Iran, Israel, and Nuclear War

Mon, 19 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The latest IAEA report on Iran again illustrates the risks of nuclear war in the Middle East.

Lessons of the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War

Wed, 14 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War marked the third time in less than a quarter century that Israel conducted major military actions in Lebanon. As this study points out, however, it also marked the third time that Israel miscalculated the strategic consequences of intervention in Lebanon.

The Israeli "Nuclear Reactor" Strike and Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Wed, 24 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The circumstances surrounding an Israeli strike on what may have been a Syrian nuclear reactor are still unclear. It is not yet certain that Syria was building a reactor, and if it were, what capacity it would have for producing fissile material, when it might have produced enough material for a weapon, and how Syria planned to deploy any nuclear capability it developed.

Israel and Syria

Wed, 15 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The Arab-Israeli military balance now consists of two largely separate balances: The first such balance is the balance between Israel and the Palestinians. Since 2000, this has been an asymmetric war that Israel has largely won. Its politics poison the region, and have led to a civil conflict among the Palestinians that may take years to resolve.

Summer Wars in Lebanon?

Fri, 22 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Lebanon is already involved in four potential struggles:

The Strategic Implications of the Palestinian Crisis

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The conflict between Hamas and Fatah (and in reality the Palestinian Authority) seems to have effectively divided Gaza and the West Bank into two separate bodies where any political compromise will be hollow and at best cloak a somewhat less overt level of struggle. Arafat’s divide and rule tactics, Israel’s shattering of the Palestinian security forces, the failure of the pea

Warfighting and Proliferation in the Middle East

Tue, 17 Apr 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Key Actors in 2010-2020

Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iran

Mon, 05 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Israel and the US differ over the timing and level of risk posed by Iran's nuclear efforts. The US sees a mature or serious Iranian nuclear threat as coming well after 2010. Israel claims to see it as coming as early as 2009 -- although much of this may be Israeli hype designed to push the US into diplomatic action, and military action if that fails.

Arab-Israeli Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric Wars

Sat, 30 Sep 2006 00:00:00 -0400

The reality of the Arab-Israeli balance now consists of two subordinate balances: Israel versus Syria and Israel versus the Palestinians. This book analyzes these two balances in detail, as well as their impact on defense planning in each country and on the overall strategic risk to the region as a whole.

The Middle East Crisis: Six "Long Wars" and Counting

Fri, 04 Aug 2006 00:00:00 -0400

The Middle East is never a peaceful place, but even by regional standards, the US faces major problems in virtually every area. Even if one ignores the problems raised by enduring issues like energy, development, demographics, and normal politics and diplomacy, the US and its allies are now directly or indirectly involved in six long wars.

Qana and the Lessons for Modern War

Mon, 31 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

Israel's Uncertain Military Performance and Strategic Goals in Lebanon

Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

It is difficult to judge Israel's military performance in Lebanon at a distance. Too little data are as yet available, and reporting is necessarily impressionistic. So far, however, it does not seem particularly impressive either in terms of strategy or execution.

The Road to Nowhere: Everyone's Strategic Failures in Lebanon

Fri, 21 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

No one can dismiss the role of luck, or the possibility of miracles, in war. No one can afford to count upon them. It is only luck and miracles, however, that are likely to give any side any kind of meaningful victory in Lebanon.

Iran's Support of the Hezbollah in Lebanon

Sat, 15 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

Analysts and reporters need to be careful to stick to the facts in covering Iran's role in the current fighting. A number of sources — including Israeli officials and officers — have begun to use the Lebanon crisis to find new reasons to attack Iran, partly because of the nuclear issue and partly because it is now seen as Israel's most serious enemy.

Lebanese Security and the Hezbollah

Fri, 14 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

Hezbollah has opened a dangerous second front in the Israeli-Palestinian war of attrition that began in September 2000. The attached analysis not only describes the nature of Hezbollah and its military capabilities, but the severe limits to the Lebanese Army and other divisions and problems within Lebanon.

Palestinian Forces

Thu, 09 Feb 2006 00:00:00 -0500

A new analysis by CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Anthony Cordesman explains the military history and capability of Hamas and PIJ, and analyzes the trends in Palestinian Authority forces and other leading Palestinian militant forces. According to Dr.

The Zarqawi Attack on Jordan: A Single Point Does Not Make a Trend

Tue, 15 Nov 2005 00:00:00 -0500

The Israeli-Palestinian War

Tue, 01 Nov 2005 00:00:00 -0500

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is more than a local or regional dispute. Its ongoing nature increases the risk that the violence will spill over its present borders and contribute to both extremism and terrorism. While the Intifada from 1987 to 1993 was largely a popular uprising and political struggle, the more recent clash is a war between conventional and unconventional forces.