Program Related Publication Feeds

North Korea’s “Thermonuclear” Test: The Paradox of Small, developing Nuclear Forces

Wed, 06 Jan 2016 00:00:00 -0500

The reports on North Korea’s latest nuclear test are now more an exercise in uncertainty than a clear demonstration of North Korea’s actual nuclear capabilities. North Korea may or may not have been able to demonstrate its ability to use a fission weapon to produce some form of fusion or thermonuclear yield.

Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization in 2015

jdunton — Wed, 30 Dec 2015 00:00:00 -0500

China’s emergence as a global economic superpower, and as a major regional military power in Asia and the Pacific, has had a major impact on its relations with the United States and its neighbors. China was the driving factor in the new strategy the United States announced in 2012 that called for a “rebalance” of U.S. forces to the Asia-Pacific region.

Negotiating a “Peace” in Syria: Between Whom and for What?

Fri, 30 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Most of the discussion of the Vienna talks on the war in Syria so far has focused on ISIS and its role in terrorism, on the relative roles of the United States and Russia, on bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table, and/or on whether Assad stays.

Russia in Syria: Hybrid Political Warfare

Wed, 23 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

According to reliable press reports, President Vladimir Putin has already made major changes in the Russian military role in Syria. No one can yet estimate how many more forces and weapons Russia will provide, but so far Putin’s major actions include:

America’s Failed Approach to Chaos Theory

Thu, 16 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The United States now faces a rapidly evolving world filled with new challenges at a time when real-world defense planning is focused on budget cuts, when U.S. “strategy” lacks plans and program budgets, and when talk of strategic partnership lacks clear and specific direction. Far too much U.S. strategic rhetoric is a hollow shell, while the real U.S.

The Changing Military Balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia

Wed, 25 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The tensions between the Koreas—and the potential involvement of China, Japan, Russia, and the United States in a Korean conflict—create a nearly open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. These conflicts could range from posturing and threats to a major conventional conflict on the Korean peninsula, with intervention by outside powers, to the extreme of nuclear conflict.

Chinese Strategy and Military Power in 2014

jdunton — Sun, 30 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

This report tracks and analyzes trends in Chinese military strategy, force structure, and regional activity. Open source material is used to detail how each branch of the People’s Liberation Army has pursued modernization. Chinese perspectives on their military’s role and development are featured, as well as the views of other relevant regional actors.

Losing the "Forgotten War" The U.S. Strategic Vacuum in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia

Wed, 01 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The US is now engaged in a major national debate over how to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. That same debate over the future of the US role in Afghanistan is not taking place. The US has issued the usual reassuring rhetoric after the inauguration of President Ghani and the belated signing of bilateral security and status of forces agreements.

The Indian Ocean Region

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is one of the most areas of the world in human terms. It includes a wide variety of races, cultures, and religions. The level of political stability, the quality of governance, demographic pressures, ethnic and sectarian tensions, and the pace of economic growth create a different mix of opportunity and risk in each state.

The Downing of the Malaysian Airliner: Avoid Rushing to Judgment

Fri, 18 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The exact cause of the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 remains uncertain, but seems most likely to be the result of a firing of either the SA-11 (Gadfly 1979) or SA-17 “Buk Mk. 2” missile (Grizzly 2007). The SA-11 and SA-17 launch vehicles and missiles (four per vehicle) look very similar. The 17 has upgraded missiles but it is hard to see the difference.

The FY2015 US Defense Budget, the New Quadrennial Defense Review and the U.S. Commitment to the Middle East and Asia

Thu, 06 Mar 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The United States has repeatedly made it clear that both the Middle East and Asia are its too main priorities for both defense strategy and military partnerships. The United States stated this repeatedly in the new Defense Strategic Guidance it issued in January 2012, and has done so every year since that time.

The United States, the Indian Ocean Region, and the Gulf

Mon, 16 Dec 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The United States remains committed to the defense of the Gulf and maintaining a major presence in the Indian Ocean region. There has been considerable confusion over the level of U.S. commitment because of speeches referring to a “pivot to Asia,” U.S. and P5+1 negotiation with Iran, claims of U.S. energy independence, and the impact of sequestration and U.S.

Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development

Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00:00 -0400

China military development has become a key focus of US security policy as well as that of virtually all Asian-Pacific states.

The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia

sherry — Fri, 21 Jun 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia describes the strategy, force deployments, and the military balance in potential current and future scenarios involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the United States.

Red Lines, Deadlines, and Thinking the Unthinkable: India, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea, and China

Tue, 16 Apr 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Early in the thermonuclear age, Herman Kahn warned the world that it had to “think about the unthinkable”: The consequences of an actual nuclear war, and consider which side – if any – might “win.” While the story may be apocryphal, Kahn is also said to have told Curtis Lemay – then head of the Strategic Air Command – that Lemay did not have a war

Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development: A Western Perspective

sherry — Thu, 21 Jun 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The US and China face a critical need to improve their understanding of how the other is developing its military power and how to avoid forms of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict between the two states.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

The Korean Military Balance

jdunton — Thu, 21 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

This report describes the key results of an analysis conducted to assess the overall balance of forces on the Korean Peninsula.

The Military Balance in Asia, 1990-2011

ian — Mon, 16 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has updated its analysis of the military balance in Asia released late last year. This report traces developments in the balance since 1990, and provides a detailed comparison of military forces as of 2011.

Korean Force Balance 2011 Report

ian — Fri, 06 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The North Korean sinking of the South Korean ship Cheonan on March 26, 2010, and shelling of the densely populated ROK island of Yeonpyeong on November 23, 2010, make it all too clear that the security situation in Northeast Asia continues to be a constant threat to world peace and one that could explode into a crisis or conflict at any time.

Spread Sheet Model for Analyzing the Military Balance in Asia

ian — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The 2010 Asia Military Balance Database was developed by Robert Hammond during an internship at the Burke Chair, as a tool for providing rapid updates to assessments of the Asian military balance. It is available to all users and can be found on the CSIS web site at:

The Military Balance in Asia, 1990-2010

Tue, 14 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has developed a new analysis of the military balance in Asia. This report traces developments in the balance since 1990, and provides a detailed comparison of military forces as of 2010.

Winning in Afghanistan

jdunton — Wed, 27 May 2009 00:00:00 -0400

This up-to-date analysis describes in detail the continued development of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF): the historic challenges—and missed opportunities—they have faced, their strengths and weaknesses, and the prospects for future force development.

Pursuing a Comprehensive Vision for the U.S.-South Korea Alliance

Tue, 14 Apr 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The scope of common interests represented by the alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) has expanded as a result of increasing South Korean capabilities to contribute to security and prosperity on and beyond the Korean peninsula.

Chinese Military Modernization

Mon, 09 Apr 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Changing political relationships and a substantial increase in resources have prompted the Chinese leadership to accelerate the modernization of its armed forces. Observers, not least the United States, have wondered what objectives China's military buildup is meant to serve.

Pacnet #60 December 19, 2006 - Nuclear Cooperation with India: Storms in India

Tue, 19 Dec 2006 00:00:00 -0500

Yesterday's White House signing ceremony of the "Henry Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act," which permits U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation with India, is the culmination of a year and a half of work, and more than its share of dramatic near-disasters, in India and in the United States. It makes possible a new era in U.S. relations with India.

Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development

Thu, 07 Sep 2006 00:00:00 -0400

Working Draft, Revised: September 7, 2006

The Asian Conventional Military Balance in 2006

Mon, 26 Jun 2006 00:00:00 -0400

The rise of China as a major power has triggered a new debate over the military balance in Asia, but it is only one of the trends shaping regional military forces.

The full report is available above. Topical sections also are available:

Weapons of Mass Destruction in Asia

Sat, 29 Jan 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Graphic analysis of the Asian Balance of Weapons of Mass Destruction.

The Asian Military Balance 2003

Thu, 01 May 2003 00:00:00 -0400

Graphic Analysis of a Comparative Summary of Military Expenditures; Manpower; Land, Air, and Naval, Forces; and Arms Sales.

The Asian Military Balance: An Analytic Overview

Thu, 01 May 2003 00:00:00 -0400

Graphic analysis of the Asian Military Balance.

The India-Pakistan Military Balance

Fri, 31 May 2002 00:00:00 -0400

Kashmir offers Pakistan a number of advantages in asymmetric warfare as well as a political relief value for nationalists and Islamic extremists. The terrain makes it extremely difficult to seal off borders and conduct counterinsurgency operations.

The Conventional Military Balance in South Asia

Wed, 27 Feb 2002 00:00:00 -0500

A 20-page graphic and quantitative overview of military spending, military manpower, arms imports, and the conventional Asian military balance in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh as of early 2001.

The Asian Conventional Military Balance in 2002: Overview