Program Related Publication Feeds

Congressional Action on the Iran Nuclear Agreement: A Game Where all Sides Can Win

Wed, 30 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The Congressional fight over the Iran nuclear agreement -- the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Agreement (JCPOA) -- has scarcely ended. The battle over the agreement has left the Congress deeply divided, and it is likely to remain polarized for some years – continuing to disagree until time shows who was right.

The Iran Nuclear Agreement and Iranian Missile Developments

sherry — Wed, 22 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The proposed nuclear agreement with Iran calls for an eight-year ban on the sale of new conventionally armed missiles.

The Best Deal with Iran That We Can Get

Sun, 24 Nov 2013 00:00:00 -0500

One needs to be very careful about the deal the P5+1 has reached with Iran. It is still not clear that the Supreme Leader will accept it or that Iran will put it into practice. It is a preliminary agreement that must be followed up by lasting Iranian compliance, acceptance by the U.S. and other nations, and must be maintained indefinitely into the future.

The Gulf and Middle East Strategic Partnerships: The Other Side of the Iran Negotiations

Tue, 22 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

No one can deny the importance of trying to end Iran’s search for nuclear weapons. Even the most effective U.S. preventive strikes will leave a heritage of tension and confrontation in the Gulf that is likely to mean a continuing arms race and constant risk of some clash that will affect the flow of Gulf oil and the global economy.

Iran’s Military and the Security Challenges to A Successful Negotiation

Thu, 26 Sep 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Far too much of the analysis of Iran’s search for nuclear weapons treats it in terms of arms control or focuses on the potential threat to Israel. In reality, Iran’s mix of asymmetric warfare, conventional warfare, and conventionally armed missile forces have critical weaknesses that make Iran anything but the hegemon of the Gulf.

Negotiating with Iran: The Strategic Case for Pragmatism and Real Progress

sherry — Mon, 23 Sep 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The United States needs to be extraordinarily careful in dealing with Iran. Iran has now spent well over a decade using delaying tactics and negotiations to move towards a nuclear weapons capability. It also has strong reasons to continue. Quite aside from the issue of national prestige, Iran needs nuclear weapons to give its largely obsolete conventional military forces credibility.

US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Latin America, Africa, and the Peripheral States

Tue, 09 Jul 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Strategic competition between the US and Iran in Latin America and Africa remains a critical aspect of any national security discussion. Recent developments in Latin America, Africa, Iran, and elsewhere necessitate a reevaluation of Iran’s presence in the region, as well as the threat it poses to the United States.

US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Central Asia

Wed, 26 Jun 2013 00:00:00 -0400

US and Iranian competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan has taken on renewed significance amid recent elections in Pakistan, and the upcoming Transition in Afghanistan. Rising anxiety over the withdrawal of US forces, ongoing regional instability, and continued tension over Iran’s nuclear program contribute to escalating competition between the US-Iranian competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan.

Assessing the Consequences of Hezbollah’s Necessary War of Choice in Syria

Mon, 17 Jun 2013 00:00:00 -0400

While supportive of popular protesters and regime change in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, at no point has the Shi’a militant group Hezbollah signaled any intention of scaling back its support for the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Turkey and the South Caucasus

Wed, 12 Jun 2013 00:00:00 -0400

US and Iranian competition in Turkey and the South Caucuses has taken on renewed significance in light of recent protests in Istanbul and Ankara, as well as ongoing hostilities in Syria which threaten to destabilize the broader region.

US and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of the EU, EU3, and Non-EU European States

sherry — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The various states that comprise the EU and non-EU Europe play a critical role in the competition between the US and Iran. Iran’s progress towards a nuclear weapons threshold capability – and evidence that it may be seeking to deploy nuclear armed missiles – has led to enhanced policy coordination between leaders in the US and Europe.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Turkey and the South Caucasus

sherry — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS has released a comprehensive report detailing the US-Iranian strategic competition in Turkey and the South Caucasus. This report describes the economic and political relationships, Iranian and US influence, energy resources, and competition in four states, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

U.S.-Iranian Competition in the Levant: Parts I & II

sherry — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The US and Iran are competing in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. Amid unprecedented popular unrest starting in 2011, dynamics in the region have become all the more complex thanks to changes in leadership, political contestation, the fragmentation of decaying state and security structures and socio-economic challenges driven by long-term popular discontent.

The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula

sherry — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The US faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Middle East. Following visits to the Gulf and discussions with top US, Gulf, and European officials by Burke Chair Anthony Cordesman, the Burke Chair at CSIS in Strategy is issuing an updated edition of its study on Iran’s military threat in the Gulf, titled &ldq

The Impact of China and Russia on U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

sherry — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS has recently issued a new edition of its analysis examining the complex and evolving relationships between China, Russia, Iran, and the US. This update reviews recent developments in the ongoing P5+1 negotiations and the economic sanctions on Iran.

Rethinking Our Approach to Iran's Search for the Bomb

sherry — Mon, 07 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

We badly need to rethink our approach to Iran’s nuclear programs. We are putting far too much emphasis on Iran’s nuclear efforts without considering how these programs fit into Iran’s over military and strategic objectives. At the same time, we are placing too much emphasis on whether Iran has revived its formal nuclear program and the current shape of its nuclear facilities.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Sanctions game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

ian — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Tightening sanctions and Iran’s reactions have become a race against time. Every day brings a new event as the competition between the US and Iran plays out on a global level. The Burke Chair at CSIS is issuing a new report that puts this competition in a broader perspective, as part of its on-going series on US and Iranian strategic competition.

Options for Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

ian — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The growing confrontation with Iran over its nuclear, missiles, and asymmetric warfare programs presents major problems in risk assessment. The Burke Chair is circulating a briefing that uses a new method of risk assessment developed by Dr. Abdullah Toukan, a visiting fellow at CSIS and noted regional expert of military matters and arms control.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan

sherry — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

US and Iranian efforts to bolster their strategic ties to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia are another significant aspect of their confrontation. This aspect of the competition between them is analyzed in detail in U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan.

U.S. And Iranian Strategic Competition: The Proxy Cold War in the Levant, Egypt and Jordan

sherry — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of Latin America, Africa and Peripheral States

sherry — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

The Real Outcome of the Iraq War: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

ian — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Events in Iraq since the US withdrawal have made it all too clear that the US celebrated the end of the Iraq War without any realism as to the impact the war and US occupation had on Iraqi society. Iraq remains a violent and unstable place, with Iranian influence on the rise. The political, economic, and security situation in Iraq, as well as the US and Iranian competition in the co

Iran: The Waiting Option

sherry — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

We may have to use force against Iran. It may provoke clashes or a conflict in the Gulf, or it may refuse any realistic diplomatic solution to its growing capabilities to produce nuclear weapons.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of the EU, EU3, and Non-EU European States

sherry — Mon, 05 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The various states that comprise the EU and non-EU Europe play a critical role in the competition between the US and Iran. Iran’s progress towards a nuclear weapons threshold capability, and evidence that it may be seeking to deploy nuclear armed missiles has led to enhanced policy coordination between leaders in the US and Europe.

U.S. And Iranian Strategic Competition: The Role Of The Southern Gulf States And Yemen

sherry — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Gulf is the strategic center of the competition between the US and Iran. The stability of the Gulf is critical to the global economy, as roughly 40 percent of the world’s oil and product trade is exported from the Gulf. Most of this goes through the Strait of Hormuz, which at its narrowest point is just 21 miles wide.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Key Official US and IAEA Statements About Iran’s Nuclear Programs

ian — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

There is a great deal of speculation about Iran’s nuclear programs that do not list sources or reflect the views of the US intelligence community.

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance: Parts I & II: Tenth Edition

sherry — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The US faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the Iranian nuclear and missile programs, conventional and unconventional warfare, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Gulf.

Iran and the Threat to "Close" the Gulf

sherry — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

There is nothing new about Iran’s threat to close the Gulf, but it does need to be put in context. Iran is reshaping its military forces to steadily increase the threat to Gulf shipping and shipping in the Gulf of Oman, It also is gradually increasing its ability to operate in the Indian Ocean.

The Outcome of Invasion: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

sherry — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Iraq has become a key focus of the strategic competition between the United States and Iran. The history of this competition has been shaped by the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the 1991 Gulf War, and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Since the 2003 war, both the US and Iran have competed to shape the structure of Post-Saddam Iraq’s politics, governance, economics, and security.

The New IAEA Report and Iran’s Evolving Nuclear and Missile Forces

ian — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s potential acquisition of nuclear weapons and the ability to arm its missiles and aircraft with such weapons represents the most serious risk that shapes US, Arab, Israeli and other international perceptions.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Peripheral Competition Involving Latin America and Africa

sherry — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Iran’s Accelerating Military Competition with the US and Arab States – Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Capabilities

ian — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Iran’s foiled assassination plot against Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US, Adel al-Jubeir, raises questions about Iran’s judgment and which elements within the regime are in control of the country’s decision-making process. If successful, such an act could have lead the country into diplomatic isolation or war.

US Strategic Competition with Iran: The Assassination Plot

ian — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has long been the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move. Iran may now have radically changed the rules if Iran’s senior leadership can be tied to the involvement of members of the Al-Quds Force in a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

ian — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Iran’s Accelerating Military Competition with the US and Arab States – Part One

Mon, 01 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Iran’s Accelerating Military Competition with the US and Arab States – Part One

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Iran’s Perceptions of its Internal Developments

Tue, 17 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

With the assistance of Adam Seitz of the Marine Corps University, the Burke Chair has compiled a series of chronological reports that focus on Iranian perceptions of national security and assess Iran’s intentions concerning competition with the US. A link to the reports on Iran’s social and domestic political developments can be found here:

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

ian — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0400

On Jan. 12, 2011, the Fars News Agency released a report in which the commander-in-chief of Iran’s army, Brigadier General Attaollah Salehi, made revealing statements regarding the role of asymmetric warfare in his country’s military doctrine. General Salehi was extensively quoted, stating that,

GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and U.S. Extended Deterrence

sherry — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke chair has just published a new report entitled “GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and US Extended Deterrence” which is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/110202_GCC_Secur_US_Extended_Deter.pdf.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

Mon, 06 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The current strategic landscape in the Gulf is shaped by a competition between Iran, Iraq, the US, and the individual Southern Gulf states for influence in the military, political, and economic realms. Iran is making broad efforts to expand its influence over the entire Gulf, as well as to deter US military action, reduce US influence, and establish itself as the dominant power in the reg

Iran, Iraq, and the Changing Face of Defense Cooperation in the Gulf

Mon, 01 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The Southern Gulf states, the region, and the US all face a rapidly changing threat environment in the Gulf, and a sharply rising need for defense cooperation. These needs, and the changes in threat and military balance that shape them, are described in detail in a new analysis developed by the Arleigh A.

Strategic Competition With Iran: The Military Dimension

ian — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Iranian Strategic Competition with the US: The Military Dimension

Options in Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

During the early days of his administration, President Obama had said he would give Iran until the end of 2009 to change their policy on nuclear weapons development. As reported by Reuters on Jan 29, 2009, the U.S.

Iran’s Evolving Threat

Thu, 21 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s search for nuclear weapons capabilities is only one part of a much broader set of military efforts, and a much broader competition with its neighbors and the West. There is no doubt that a “nuclear” Iran could be a major new source of instability in an already all too troubled region, but this is only one part of the problem.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world has focused on Iran’s missile developments, and possible nuclear capabilities, this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

GCC - Iran: Operational Analysis of Air, SAM and TBM Forces

Wed, 19 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently stated that the U.S. will not allow the Gulf Region to be dominated by a hegemonic Iran, and that an Iran in possession of nuclear weapons is unacceptable. If Iran continues to pursue a nuclear weapon program then the U.S. will likely arm its allies in the region, extending a defense umbrella over the Gulf.

Iran Status Report

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

US policy towards Iran requires more than dialogue. It requires careful consideration of Iran’s evolving military capabilities and the range of threats it can pose to its neighbors, the wider Middle East, and to the flow of world oil exports.

Iran's Political Future After Khamenei's Friday Prayer Endorsement of Ahmadinejad

sherry — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

We need to be very careful not to rush out ahead of events in judging what is happening in Iran.

What Next With Iran?

sherry — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

It is hard to counsel patience, particularly in a climate of artificial deadlines, instant media, and steadily larger gaggles of squawking heads. So far, however, President Obama has shown the right degree of restraint, while laying the groundwork to react as the outcome of events in Iran become clear enough to decide on the best policy.

Iran and the Challenges to Middle East Security

sherry — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Iran presents a wide range of potential challenges to the security of the Middle East. This does not mean that Iran plans to start new conflicts in the region or will actively seek to achieve its objectives by force. At the same time, however, Iran is actively seeking to expand its influence, and is now the most serious threat to the security of energy exports in the Gulf region.