Program Related Publication Feeds

Creeping Incrementalism: U.S. Forces and Strategy in Iraq and Syria from 2011 to 2016: An Update

pmeylan — Mon, 01 Feb 2016 00:00:00 -0500

Please note: This commentary has been updated to reflect a new briefing by a Department of Defense spokesman.

More Special Forces For Iraq and Syria: Tactical Asset or Strategic Tokenism

Thu, 03 Dec 2015 00:00:00 -0500

On the surface, deploying more Special Forces to deal with the threat from ISIS to Iraq and Syria should be a tactical asset. In reality, however, it is far from clear that they will be able to perform this role – given the overall lack of a credible U.S. strategy and plans to create effective Iraqi and Syrian forces.

Looking Beyond the Tragedy in Paris: Still No Clear Strategy and No Public Measures of Effectiveness for Dealing with ISIS, Iraq

Tue, 01 Dec 2015 00:00:00 -0500

It is time to look beyond the tragedy of Paris and the immediate threat of terrorism, and take a hard look at the lack of any meaningful public strategy for the broader fight in Iraq and Syria, and any meaningful measures of progress and effectiveness.

Fighting Fear as Well as ISIS: Setting the Right Priorities

Tue, 24 Nov 2015 00:00:00 -0500

You do not defeat an enemy by becoming it. You do not defend freedom by reducing it. And, you do not create shared values through intolerance and fear.

ISIS and “Failed State Wars”: Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen

Fri, 09 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Rethinking the Wars Against ISIS and the U.S. Strategy for Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Insurgency

Mon, 28 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

By the time a new President takes office, the United States will have been at war for roughly a decade and a half. What began as a limited war against terrorism has become a major counterinsurgency campaign in Iraq and Afghanistan, and U.S.

War and the Iraqi Economy: A Case Study

Tue, 15 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Iraq’s economy is only one of the factors that divides the country, encourages violence, has led to civil conflict, and has helped empower ISIS.

Trends in Iraqi Violence, Casualties and Impact of War: 2003-2015

Mon, 14 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The focus on the threat posed by ISIS has led to a dangerous tendency to ignore the overall patterns of violence in Iraq and the fact that any lasting peace and stability must address Iraq’s other causes of violence. A new analysis of the patterns of violence in Iraq by the Burke Chair at CSIS examines these issues in detail. It is entitled Trends in Iraqi Violence, Casualties and Impact of War: 2003-2015, and is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/150914_Trends_in_Iraqi_Violence_Casualties.pdf, or by clicking on the above PDF.

Constructing a New Syria: Dealing with the Real Outcome of the “ISIS War”

Fri, 04 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

It is all too easy to focus on the fighting with ISIS in Iraq and Syria, or the growing humanitarian crisis in Syria, and ignore the full implications of the Syrian civil war and the challenge it poses for the future. No one can ignore the threat that ISIS poses to the region, or the immediate humanitarian threat to more than half of Syria’s population.

Trends in Iraqi Violence, Casualties, and the Impact of War: 2003-2015

Fri, 04 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The Uncertain U.S. “Game Changers” in the ISIS, Iraq, and Syria War

Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0400

This Commentary can be found here.

Broad Patterns in Global Terrorism in 2014

Fri, 19 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. State Department has just published its annual country reports on terrorism. In the past, most of the resulting commentary has focused on the narratives in the main report.

The Military Balance in a Shattered Levant

Mon, 15 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The war against ISIL and the civil war in Syria have highlighted the importance of the military balance in the Levant and the extent to which it has an impact on Iraq and the Gulf, the flow of global energy exports and the world economy, and international terrorism.

A Public Relations Exercise without Meaningful Transparency

Fri, 01 May 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The United States has faced a major crisis in Syria since 2011, and has been contending with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq since the summer of 2014. It has been conducting operations in Iraq since March 2014, and formally announced a coalition and bombing campaign against ISIL in August of 2014.

America’s Failed Approach to Chaos Theory

Thu, 16 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The United States now faces a rapidly evolving world filled with new challenges at a time when real-world defense planning is focused on budget cuts, when U.S. “strategy” lacks plans and program budgets, and when talk of strategic partnership lacks clear and specific direction. Far too much U.S. strategic rhetoric is a hollow shell, while the real U.S.

The Real Strategic Goal in Iraq and Syria: How Do You Bring Lasting Stability?

Mon, 16 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

One of the ironies of a steadily more partisan Washington is that its politicians and policymakers continue to call for “strategy” without looking beyond the military dimension. One way to lose a war is to lose sight of the objective, and there seems to be an open contest between the administration and the Congress to see who can do the best job of ignoring the objective.

Clash For Civilization

Wed, 18 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500

The new outburst of violent terrorism in Paris, the threat of plans for other attacks in Belgium, and reports of other planned attacks by ISIS have all raised the specter of Jihadist attacks throughout Europe. They have also renewed all the fears and concerns that the tragedy of “9/11” caused in the United States.

Boots on the Ground: The Realities in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria

Fri, 13 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500

The Obama administration and its strongest opponents in Congress may not have all that much in common, but one thing they do share is the constant misuse of the word “strategy.” Strategy does not consist of stating a broad policy goal and empty rhetoric.

The War Against the Islamic State: The Challenge of Civilian Casualties

Thu, 08 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0500

There is no question that the United States should do what it can to minimize civilian casualties. At the same time, war is war, and the United States is fighting an asymmetric war against a movement that does not wear uniforms, may or may not mark its vehicles, and can draw on decades of experience in regional conflicts where irregular forces have used civilians as human shields.

Iran, Evolving Threats, and Strategic Partnerships in the Gulf

Mon, 22 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The U.S. and its Arab partners in the Gulf face a wide range of threats. These include the Islamic State and other Jihadist elements, civil war, instability, and divisions in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. It is Iran, however, which poses the most severe military challenge, and one that goes far beyond its search for nuclear capability.

The Emirates Center and Gulf Think Tanks: The Next Twenty years

Wed, 10 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Presentation to the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR), December 10, 2014, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Let me begin by congratulating the Emirates Center and Dr. Jamal Sanad Al-Suwaidi for so many accomplishments over the last 20 years. It has been a privilege to watch its growth, its sustained quality, and its steadily increasing influence.

The Obama Administration: From Ending Two Wars to Engagement in Five – with the Risk of a Sixth

Wed, 03 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Presidents propose action, and then reality intervenes. This cycle holds special irony in the case of President Obama. A year ago, it looked like he might end two of the longest wars in U.S. history by the time he left office.

Key Trends in Gulf Security Partnerships, the Gulf Military Balance, Instability in Gulf States, and Iranian Nuclear Forces

Mon, 01 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The US and its Gulf allies face major crises in dealing with Iran, the Islamic State, and civil wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The Burke Chair has recently issued five papers that focus on the key trends and data in these areas.

Gulf Security, Stability, and Terrorism: Country Rankings

Thu, 13 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Much of the analysis of political instability, security problems, and terrorism in the Gulf and the Middle East focuses on the most serious immediate problem or key causes of the current rise in violence like religious extremism.

The Islamic State War: No Clear U.S. Strategy

Mon, 10 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The campaign against the Islamic State and the broader elements of Operation Inherent Resolve confront the US with some of the most complex problems in defining a viable strategy in its recent military history.

The Air War Against the Islamic State: The Need for An “Adequacy of Resources”

Wed, 29 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States has stated from the start that it is conducting an air campaign to degrade the Islamic State, not to change the military situation in Syria or to substitute for Iraqi political unity and the eventual use of Iraqi ground forces. This, however, raises several key questions:

The Imploding U.S Strategy in the Islamic State War?

Thu, 23 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is too early to say that the U.S. strategy against the Islamic State is imploding, but it is scarcely too soon to question whether this is possible. In fact, it is far from clear that the original U.S. strategy ever planned to deal with the complications that have arisen since President Obama officially announced a portion of what that strategy really had to be.

Strategic Partnership in the Middle East: Respecting Our Arab Allies, Realism About Ourselves

Thu, 09 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is easy to talk about a U.S. strategy based on strategic partnership and coalitions. It is far more difficult, however, to make such efforts work. This is particularly true when the U.S. fails to honestly address its own problems and mistakes, minimizes the costs and risks involved, and exaggerates criticism of its allies.

The Real Center of Gravity in the War Against the Islamic State

Tue, 30 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Much of the debate over the air war and “boots on the ground” ignores the real center of gravity in the campaign against the Islamic State. There is no near-term possibility of any form of military victory unless the new Iraqi government can bring Iraq’s Arab Shi’ite, Arab Sunnis, and Kurds back together as some form of functioning state.

The Islamic State: The Case for Expanding the Air War

Tue, 23 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

No action the United States and President Obama takes can eliminate the fact that the campaign against the Islamic State involves major risks, many of which are beyond U.S. control:

Iraq, Syria, and the Islamic State: The "Boots on the Ground" Fallacy

Fri, 19 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There are times the United States does not need an enemy in going to war. It poses enough of a threat to itself without any foreign help. The current debate over ground troops in Iraq and Syria threatens to be yet another case in point, compounding the American threats to America that have done so much damage in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the earlier fighting in Iraq.

The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability

Thu, 18 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.

The Campaign Against the Islamic State

Tue, 16 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

If there is any one lesson of the Afghan and Iraq Wars, it is that it is far easier to begin a conflict than to manage it well and achieve a meaningful form of victory.

The "Best Game in Town" - Five Key Risks of the President’s Strategy

sherry — Thu, 11 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It may seem unusual to criticize a strategy you have both suggested and endorse, and it is important to stress from the outset that President Obama has almost certainly chosen a strategy that is the “best game in town” — if he fully implements it, gives it the necessary resources, and sustains it over time.

Winning the Campaign Against the Islamic State: Key Strategic and Tactical Challenges

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States does not have good or quick options in dealing with the Islamic State, in part because it faces serious challenges in Iraq and Syria that cannot be separated from any efforts to weaken and destroy the Islamic State. This, however, is not a reason to stand and wait for better options that do not exist.

Iraq: The Economic and Governance Sides of the Crisis

Mon, 18 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There is no question that the Islamic State is the most immediate aspect of the Iraq crisis. It needs to be checked, its gains need to be reversed, and it needs to be driven out of Iraq if possible. But – and it is a critical but – Iraq requires far more.

Iraq: A Time to Act

sherry — Wed, 06 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

On June 10, 2014, the Iraqi city of Mosul fell to what is now called the Islamic State (formerly the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham or ISIS). Since that time, the Islamic State has shown a surprising ability to mix religious extremism with effective strategy and military action.

Dumping Maliki and Striking at ISIS

Mon, 28 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is time that the United States stopped waiting for good options that could somehow quickly solve its problems in the Middle East and accept the reality that the United States faces an unstable mess in the entire Middle East/North Africa region that is likely to take at least a decade to play out before there is any real stability.

Iraq: The Enemy of My Enemy is Not My Friend

Wed, 16 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The proverb that the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” is not an Arab proverb, it is a Sanskrit proverb that predates the Prophet Muhammad by roughly 1,000 years. It is also a proverb with a dismal history in practice. In case after case, the “enemy of my enemy” has actually proven to have been an enemy at the time or turned into one in the future.

The New “Great Game” in the Middle East: Looking Beyond the “Islamic State” and Iraq

Wed, 09 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. has good reason to try to prevent the creation of a violent, extremist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, to reverse the gains of ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)/ ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham), and to help move Iraq back towards a more stable and unified form of government.

The Uncertain Next Steps in Iraq

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The President has set the stage. The question is what acts will follow. The United States has signaled as clearly as it can that a corrupt, authoritarian, power hungry, sectarian thug like Maliki should go. It cannot, however, make that happen or undo the damage that Maliki has done to the nation's unity, quality of governance, economy, and security forces since the 2010 election.

The President Has Taken the Right First Step on Iraq

Thu, 19 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The President's decision to send 300 more U.S. military advisors to Iraq is a key first step in dealing with the crisis. It ensures that the United States as well as Iran will have a presence on the ground, while any U.S. use of airpower alone would have effectively empowered Iran's Revolutionary Guards because they would have been present with Iraqi forces.

Shaping Iraq’s Security Forces

sherry — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The crisis in Iraq threatens to destabilize the entire country and extend far beyond Iraq’s borders. Militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have taken control of cities, government offices and foreign consulates, ransacked banks, and released prisoners as they seize Mosul and Tikrit in their drive towards Baghdad.

Afghanistan and Iraq: Learning the Lessons of Worst Case Wars

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The US needs to learn hard lessons from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan even if it does intend to fight such wars in the future.

Iraq in Crisis

jdunton — Fri, 30 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Iraq is a nation in crisis bordering on civil war in 2014. The country now faces growing violence, a steady rise in Sunni Islamist extremism, an increasingly authoritarian leader that favors Iraq’s Shiites, and growing ethnic tension between Arabs and Kurds.

Hitting Bottom: The Maliki Scorecard in Iraq

Thu, 01 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Iraq is on the edge of civil war, and its election does not seem to have brought about any clear prospect of national unity or effective leadership.

Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership: Planning for the Future

Mon, 07 Apr 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The US and its allies in the Southern Gulf face great challenges, but they also have great opportunities.

The Need for a New “Realism” in the US-Saudi Alliance

sherry — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States does not need to rebuild its alliance with Saudi Arabia as much as build a new form of alliance based on the new realities of the Middle East. Both sides need to recognize these changing realities, and the uncertainties involved, and develop a new level of cooperation. At the same time, they need to be more tolerant of the other side’s positions.

The “Rise” of Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Threat from Prime Minister Maliki

sherry — Mon, 13 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

No one can deny that al Qaeda is a violent extremist threat wherever it operates. It poses a threat in terms of transnational terrorism in the United States and Europe, and a far more direct threat to the people who live in every area it operates.

Shaping Iraq’s Security Forces

sherry — Fri, 13 Dec 2013 00:00:00 -0500

Two years after the withdrawal of all US military forces from Iraq, the Iraqi military is facing major challenges as it seeks to confront a resurgence of Islamist violence.