Program Related Publication Feeds

Cooperation in Counterterrorism: Rhetoric vs. Reality

Tue, 20 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The rhetoric of cooperation in counterterrorism comes easily. The reality comes hard. Nations have very different views of who is a terrorist and who is a legitimate opponent to a given government.

Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization: A Comparative Analysis

Tue, 01 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The Afghan Campaign and the Death of Mullah Omar

sherry — Sun, 02 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The exact circumstances surrounding the reports of Mullah Omar’s death remain unclear, and some facts remain uncertain. It does seem likely, however, that the central power structure of the Taliban covered up his death in 2013 in an effort to preserve its influence, motivate Taliban fighters, and take advantage of the loyalty oath that those who join the Taliban took to Omar.

The Uncertain U.S. “Game Changers” in the ISIS, Iraq, and Syria War

Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0400

This Commentary can be found here.

21st Century Conflict: From “Revolution in Military Affairs” (RMA) to “Revolution in Civil-Military Affairs” (RCMA)

Thu, 02 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S.

Broad Patterns in Global Terrorism in 2014

Fri, 19 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. State Department has just published its annual country reports on terrorism. In the past, most of the resulting commentary has focused on the narratives in the main report.

A Public Relations Exercise without Meaningful Transparency

Fri, 01 May 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The United States has faced a major crisis in Syria since 2011, and has been contending with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq since the summer of 2014. It has been conducting operations in Iraq since March 2014, and formally announced a coalition and bombing campaign against ISIL in August of 2014.

Afghanistan at Transition

jdunton — Thu, 19 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

This new study covers the civil and military lessons of the war in Afghanistan as of 2015, the trends at the time of transition, and the risks inherent in the current approach to supporting Afghanistan. The report focuses on the lessons to be learned from the US experience in Afghanistan to date and the problems Afghanistan faces now that most US and allied combat forces have left.

The FY2016 Defense Budget and US Strategy: Key Trends and Data Points

Fri, 06 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0500

Every year, the Department of Defense, OMB, the CBO, and GAO provide a wide range of materials analyzing the President’s proposed defense budget, and current trends in defense spending. These amount to thousands of pages and a wide variety of metrics, maps, charts, and other data.

All Spin and No Substance: The Need for a Meaningful Obama Strategy

Wed, 21 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0500

It may be unfair to expect any meaningful discussion of strategy and America's security position in a State of the Union address. But, it is all too clear that President Obama failed to go beyond a few sentences of vacuous spin in dealing with the world outside the United States. The most he did was to claim that the United States has fewer troops at war.

The Metrics of Terrorism and Instability in Pakistan

sherry — Thu, 18 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Every American has to sympathize with the Pakistani people in the horror that befell them at the killings of so many school children. Every American parent can imagine the heartbreak of the Pakistani parents who suddenly lost their children for an extremist cause that offers only hatred instead of hope.

The Civil Transition in Afghanistan: The Metrics of Crisis?

Tue, 16 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

It is natural to focus on the security problems of Transition in Afghanistan, and the challenges of forming an effective government with Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah.

Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition - Volume I

Tue, 16 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The United States and its allies are months away from ending their combat role in Afghanistan. The United States, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), and the Afghan Government have provided a substantial amount of data on the process of Transition, the course of the fighting, and the development and capability of Afghan forces.

The Obama Administration: From Ending Two Wars to Engagement in Five – with the Risk of a Sixth

Wed, 03 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Presidents propose action, and then reality intervenes. This cycle holds special irony in the case of President Obama. A year ago, it looked like he might end two of the longest wars in U.S. history by the time he left office.

A Key Update: Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition: Sharply Contradictory Data on Levels of Violence

sherry — Fri, 21 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair has recently released a four part survey of the Afghan Transition, titled, Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition, which is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/publication/afghan-forces-edge-transition.

The four parts include:

The Need for Better Civil-Military Planning

Thu, 13 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The United States is now more than a decade into wars attempting to bring security and stability to the Middle East. The results have not been good. The initial U.S. military victory in Iraq that overthrew Saddam Hussein was followed by eight years of irregular warfare, a pause, and now a new war against ISIS. The U.S.

Strategic Partnership in the Middle East: Respecting Our Arab Allies, Realism About Ourselves

Thu, 09 Oct 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It is easy to talk about a U.S. strategy based on strategic partnership and coalitions. It is far more difficult, however, to make such efforts work. This is particularly true when the U.S. fails to honestly address its own problems and mistakes, minimizes the costs and risks involved, and exaggerates criticism of its allies.

Security Transition in Afghanistan

Wed, 24 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan’s other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond.

The Forces Shaping Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2016

Wed, 24 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

If there is any lesson I have learned during the time between Vietnam and the present, it is that we perpetually seek simplicity and good news in wars that are extraordinarily complex, and that we spin the facts into some simple justification of what we are already doing -- rather than honestly face the far more challenging mix of problems and risks that actually shape a conflict.

The Civil Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2016

Wed, 24 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan’s other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond.

The Islamic State: The Case for Expanding the Air War

Tue, 23 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

No action the United States and President Obama takes can eliminate the fact that the campaign against the Islamic State involves major risks, many of which are beyond U.S. control:

Iraq, Syria, and the Islamic State: The "Boots on the Ground" Fallacy

Fri, 19 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There are times the United States does not need an enemy in going to war. It poses enough of a threat to itself without any foreign help. The current debate over ground troops in Iraq and Syria threatens to be yet another case in point, compounding the American threats to America that have done so much damage in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the earlier fighting in Iraq.

The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability

Thu, 18 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.

The Campaign Against the Islamic State

Tue, 16 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

If there is any one lesson of the Afghan and Iraq Wars, it is that it is far easier to begin a conflict than to manage it well and achieve a meaningful form of victory.

Winning the Campaign Against the Islamic State: Key Strategic and Tactical Challenges

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States does not have good or quick options in dealing with the Islamic State, in part because it faces serious challenges in Iraq and Syria that cannot be separated from any efforts to weaken and destroy the Islamic State. This, however, is not a reason to stand and wait for better options that do not exist.

Transition in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Progress and Risks

Wed, 20 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The political risks and instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan are all too apparent. It is unclear that Afghanistan can create a stable central government, and it is unclear that Pakistan’s present central government can survive. At the same time, this is only part of the story.

Critical Problems in Security

The Afghan War and Transition: Updated Report on The Forces Shaping Transition in Afghanistan, 2014-2016

Tue, 12 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There are several warnings that Transition in Afghanistan may fail, including the near paralysis of any effort to decide on the outcome of the Afghan presidential election, the killing of an American General, and yet another set of complaints from Afghan President Hamid Karzai on the US use of military force.

The Real Revolution in Military Affairs

sherry — Tue, 05 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It doesn’t seem all that long since the United States was considering how advancements in military technology would allow it to use advances in long-range precision weapons, intelligence sensors, and command and control capabilities to dominate conventional wars.

Israel and Hamas: Escalating to Nowhere, Yet Again

Thu, 31 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

As of July 31st, the fighting between Israel and Hamas was in its 24th day. Israel was calling up 16,000 more troops and its ground forces were seeking to destroy at least 32 major tunnel complexes.

The FY2015 Defense Budget and the QDR: Key Trends and Data Points

Wed, 23 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

This year’s defense budget submission and QDR present a complex mix of changes in strategy, force levels, and defense spending plans. They also reveal a growing gap between the resources the US is likely to commit to military spending and its strategy.

Hamas and the New Round of Fighting in Gaza: Both Sides are Escalating to Nowhere

Thu, 17 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The key question in any war – in starting it and throughout the conflict – is how will this war end? Ever since 1967, the answer in the case of Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, has been by pausing and then resuming in a different form with the same result. In the case of the fighting in Gaza, changes in tactics and technology have simply escalated to nowhere.

Afghanistan and the Growing Risks in Transition

Mon, 14 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

It has become all too apparent that the Afghan election risks creating new political divisions and an even weaker level of leadership and governance in Afghanistan. The election, however, is only part of the story.

Shaping Iraq’s Security Forces

sherry — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The crisis in Iraq threatens to destabilize the entire country and extend far beyond Iraq’s borders. Militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have taken control of cities, government offices and foreign consulates, ransacked banks, and released prisoners as they seize Mosul and Tikrit in their drive towards Baghdad.

Afghanistan and Iraq: Learning the Lessons of Worst Case Wars

Tue, 10 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The US needs to learn hard lessons from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan even if it does intend to fight such wars in the future.

The FY2015 Defense Budget and the QDR: Key Trends and Data Points

Wed, 21 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

This year’s defense budget submission and QDR present a complex mix of changes in strategy, force levels, and defense spending plans.

Post-Election Transition in Afghanistan

Mon, 19 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Ever since Vietnam, the US has faced three major threats every time it has attempted a major counterinsurgency campaign in armed nation building:

The Afghan Civil Transition Crisis: Afghanistan's Status and the Warnings from Iraq's Failure

Sun, 18 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

For more than a decade, the U.S. and its allies have been issuing claims about the progress being made in Afghanistan, and have tended to focus on success as measured in holding elections rather than the quality of governance and real world economic progress.

The Obama Presidency: Is “King Log” Really Better than “King Stork?”

Tue, 13 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

There is no doubt that President Obama faces a host of challenges that are not of his making, and where the United States does not have easy or good options. He must deal with an ongoing political crisis over domestic spending, a slow U.S. recovery from recession, and a still uncertain recovery in Europe and other states. He faces a paralytic growth in partisanship within the U.S.

Shaping the ANSF to meet the Challenges of Transition

Thu, 17 Apr 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new analysis of the capabilities of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and the challenges they face, entitled Shaping the Uncertain Future of Afghan National Security Forces.

The FY2015 Defense Budget and the QDR: Key Trends and Data Points

Thu, 20 Mar 2014 00:00:00 -0400

This year’s defense budget submission and QDR present a complex mix of changes in strategy, force levels, and defense spending plans.

The FY2015 US Defense Budget, the New Quadrennial Defense Review and the U.S. Commitment to the Middle East and Asia

Thu, 06 Mar 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The United States has repeatedly made it clear that both the Middle East and Asia are its too main priorities for both defense strategy and military partnerships. The United States stated this repeatedly in the new Defense Strategic Guidance it issued in January 2012, and has done so every year since that time.

Going Hollow: The Hagel Preview of the FY2015 Defense Budget

Tue, 25 Feb 2014 00:00:00 -0500

It does not take much vision to predict that Secretary Hagel and the Obama Administration’s FY2015 defense budget submissions are going to be the subject of bitter partisan criticism. It is an election year and virtually everything in Washington is already the subject of bitter partisan criticism.

Shaping Iraq’s Security Forces

sherry — Fri, 13 Dec 2013 00:00:00 -0500

Two years after the withdrawal of all US military forces from Iraq, the Iraqi military is facing major challenges as it seeks to confront a resurgence of Islamist violence.

The Uncertain Strategic Case for the Zero Option in Afghanistan

sherry — Wed, 04 Dec 2013 00:00:00 -0500

It is far too easy to concentrate on the tensions with Afghan President Hamid Karzai over the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) and ignore the sheer lack of U.S. debate over the value of staying in Afghanistan. The key question is whether there is a legitimate case for something approaching a zero option and a full withdrawal of U.S. forces and aid.

And Today’s Crisis is Iraq…The Need to Bargain and Lie in the Cause of Strategic Realism

Thu, 31 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is scarcely something to celebrate. There will be the usual vacuous speeches and empty, dishonest rhetoric. Words like “democracy” and “partnership” will be misused with the usual lack of concern.

Afghanistan: Remembering the War We are Still Fighting

Mon, 16 Sep 2013 00:00:00 -0400

As Americans have been debating Syria, and amid almost endless polls about war fatigue and US reluctance to engage in military action, we continue to fight a war in Afghanistan.

Violence in Iraq: The Growing Risk of Serious Civil Conflict

sherry — Mon, 09 Sep 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The rising level of violence in Iraq is difficult to measure and interpret, but it presents a serious risk that Iraq could return to the level of civil conflict it experience during the mid-2000s.

The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

sherry — Wed, 21 Aug 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The political dynamics and violence that shape the current series of crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – and daily events in Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen – dominate the current course of virtually every aspect of these states including much of the current course of violence and instability in the region.

Transition in Afghanistan

Thu, 01 Aug 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The US is already at least six months behind in shaping an effective Transition in Afghanistan. It has not laid credible plans for the security, governance, and economic aspects of Transition.

Salvaging the War in Afghanistan

Tue, 23 Jul 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. is slowly and steadily losing the war in Afghanistan.