Program Related Publication Feeds

American Strategy and Critical Changes in the U.S. “Energy Import Dependence"

Mon, 04 May 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Changes in energy technology and in the way oil and gas reserves are estimated, have led to major changes in estimates of future of U.S. dependence on energy imports, how this affects U.S. strategy, and the nature of the U.S. strategic partnership with the Arab Gulf states.

America, Saudi Arabia, and the Strategic Importance of Yemen

Thu, 26 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Yemen is a growing reminder of just how important the strategic U.S. partnership with Saudi Arabia really is. It is one thing to talk about the war against ISIS, and quite another to realize that U.S. strategic interests require a broad level of stability in the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula and one that is dependent on Saudi Arabia as a key strategic partner.

The Iranian Sea-Air-Missile Threat to Gulf Shipping

jdunton — Fri, 27 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500

The Arabian Gulf is now involved in a massive arms race, triggered largely by the fear that Iran will try to use its military forces to intimidate or dominate its neighbors. Iran has threatened to close the Gulf and carried out a wide range of large military exercises to show its capabilities.

Saudi Arabia’s Smooth Succession: The King is Dead, Long Live the King

Fri, 23 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0500

Once again, Saudi Arabia has managed its succession without problems, delay, or any signs of serious divisions within the royal family. One of its most competent and impressive kings has died, but the Crown Prince – Prince Salman – officially became king virtually at the time King Abdullah’s death was announced.

The True Nature of the Saudi Succession "Crisis"

sherry — Fri, 09 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0500

Every time a Saudi king gets seriously ill or dies, this triggers yet another media frenzy over a Saudi succession crisis. There is yet another round of speculation about major conflicts within the royal family, the destabilization of Saudi Arabia, and how the various tensions within the Kingdom could somehow trigger a civil crisis or conflict. King Abdullah’s illness is no exception.

International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Quantifying Key Trends

Tue, 25 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

(In conjunction with the Third International Conference on Strategic Studies: Shifts and Changes in the World System and its Impacts on the Middle East; November 25-26, 2014, Doha, Qatar)

The Indian Ocean Region

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is one of the most areas of the world in human terms. It includes a wide variety of races, cultures, and religions. The level of political stability, the quality of governance, demographic pressures, ethnic and sectarian tensions, and the pace of economic growth create a different mix of opportunity and risk in each state.

Maritime Security in the Middle East and North Africa: A Strategic Assessment

Thu, 06 Feb 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Political instability in Egypt, Somalia, and Yemen has raised security risks for the global shipping industry in the waters of the Middle East and North Africa.

The United States, the Indian Ocean Region, and the Gulf

Mon, 16 Dec 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The United States remains committed to the defense of the Gulf and maintaining a major presence in the Indian Ocean region. There has been considerable confusion over the level of U.S. commitment because of speeches referring to a “pivot to Asia,” U.S. and P5+1 negotiation with Iran, claims of U.S. energy independence, and the impact of sequestration and U.S.

And Today’s Crisis is Iraq…The Need to Bargain and Lie in the Cause of Strategic Realism

Thu, 31 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is scarcely something to celebrate. There will be the usual vacuous speeches and empty, dishonest rhetoric. Words like “democracy” and “partnership” will be misused with the usual lack of concern.

The Gulf and Middle East Strategic Partnerships: The Other Side of the Iran Negotiations

Tue, 22 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

No one can deny the importance of trying to end Iran’s search for nuclear weapons. Even the most effective U.S. preventive strikes will leave a heritage of tension and confrontation in the Gulf that is likely to mean a continuing arms race and constant risk of some clash that will affect the flow of Gulf oil and the global economy.

American Strategy and US “Energy Independence”

Mon, 21 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Changes in energy technology, and in the way oil and gas reserves are estimated, are beginning to raise serious questions about the level of future US dependence on energy imports and how this will affect US strategy. At this point, some answers are highly uncertain. Much depends on uncertain estimates of how new technologies and reserves will be developed over time.

Negotiating with Iran: Meeting the Necessary Requirements

Tue, 01 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Those who oppose U.S. and Iranian negotiations need to realize that this is almost certainly the last chance for a real solution before Iran moves to the point of no return both politically and in terms of nuclear capability.

Iran’s Military and the Security Challenges to A Successful Negotiation

Thu, 26 Sep 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Far too much of the analysis of Iran’s search for nuclear weapons treats it in terms of arms control or focuses on the potential threat to Israel. In reality, Iran’s mix of asymmetric warfare, conventional warfare, and conventionally armed missile forces have critical weaknesses that make Iran anything but the hegemon of the Gulf.

Syria's Uncertain Air Defense Capabilities

Mon, 06 May 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Over the weekend of May 3-5, Israel carried out airstrikes against targets in Syria, specifically against a shipment of missiles believed to be headed towards Lebanon. This is the third set of Israeli strikes that has hit Syrian targets without reports of effective Syrian resistance or Israeli losses since the start of 2013.

Syria: The Search for the Least Bad Option

sherry — Wed, 03 Apr 2013 00:00:00 -0400

There are no good options in Syria. No matter what happens, the current civil war has triggered divisions between Sunni, Alawite, Kurd, and Syria’s smaller minorities that will take a decade or more to heal and leave lasting anger and hatred between Sunni and Alawite.

Securing the Gulf: Key Threats and Options for Enhanced Cooperation

Tue, 19 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The US and its Arab Gulf allies face the steadily increasing threat that some form of conflict may occur with Iran in the coming years, and accordingly, they must develop the most effective possible deterrent to Iran’s military ambitions.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Turkey and the South Caucasus

sherry — Wed, 06 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS has released a comprehensive report detailing the US-Iranian strategic competition in Turkey and the South Caucasus. This report describes the economic and political relationships, Iranian and US influence, energy resources, and competition in four states, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

U.S.-Iranian Competition in the Levant: Parts I & II

sherry — Thu, 10 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The US and Iran are competing in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. Amid unprecedented popular unrest starting in 2011, dynamics in the region have become all the more complex thanks to changes in leadership, political contestation, the fragmentation of decaying state and security structures and socio-economic challenges driven by long-term popular discontent.

The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula

sherry — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 00:00:00 -0500

The US faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Middle East. Following visits to the Gulf and discussions with top US, Gulf, and European officials by Burke Chair Anthony Cordesman, the Burke Chair at CSIS in Strategy is issuing an updated edition of its study on Iran’s military threat in the Gulf, titled &ldq

The December GCC Ministerial Meeting and Improved Integration in Gulf Military Forces

ian — Mon, 24 Dec 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The US cannot hope to achieve a successful resolution to Iran’s nuclear weapons programs, or establish security in the Gulf, without the support of its military partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all provide important contributions to the effort to deter and defend against Iran, and any threat to the ex

The Impact of China and Russia on U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

sherry — Thu, 29 Nov 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair in Strategy at the CSIS has recently issued a new edition of its analysis examining the complex and evolving relationships between China, Russia, Iran, and the US. This update reviews recent developments in the ongoing P5+1 negotiations and the economic sanctions on Iran.

Bracing for an Uncertain Future in Syria

Wed, 20 Jun 2012 00:00:00 -0400

As former UN secretary general Kofi Annan’s peace plan struggles to make headway, there are few good options to deal with what are likely to be years of unrest and socioeconomic and political instability. The Annan plan called for a Syrian-led political process under UN supervision to bring about a cessation of armed violence across the country.

Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East

sherry — Thu, 24 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair is issuing a new, expanded edition of its overview of Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East. This analysis is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120524_MENA_Threat_Brief.pdf

The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

sherry — Mon, 21 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair is issuing a new, expanded edition of its overview of The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey. This analysis is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120514_MENA_Stability.pdf

The "Arab Spring" Becomes the "Arab Decade"

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It is now all too clear that the “Arab Spring” is much more likely to be the “Arab Decade.” The pattern of political unrest that began in 2011 is driven by a mix of political, demographic, and economic issues in each country that has experienced serious unrest will take at least a decade to resolve in a form that can bring lasting stability.

Options for Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

ian — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The growing confrontation with Iran over its nuclear, missiles, and asymmetric warfare programs presents major problems in risk assessment. The Burke Chair is circulating a briefing that uses a new method of risk assessment developed by Dr. Abdullah Toukan, a visiting fellow at CSIS and noted regional expert of military matters and arms control.

Taking a Step Forward on Syria

sherry — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Former UN secretary general Kofi Annan’s peace plan for Syria could be a step in the right direction. The plan calls for a Syrian-led political process under UN supervision to bring about a cessation of armed violence across the country. It also calls for dialogue between opposition forces and the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad.

Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East

sherry — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has developed a detailed estimate of energy risks in the Middle East and North Africa, drawing heavily on the analyses of the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the US Department of Energy.

U.S. And Iranian Strategic Competition: The Proxy Cold War in the Levant, Egypt and Jordan

sherry — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

The Real Outcome of the Iraq War: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

ian — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Events in Iraq since the US withdrawal have made it all too clear that the US celebrated the end of the Iraq War without any realism as to the impact the war and US occupation had on Iraqi society. Iraq remains a violent and unstable place, with Iranian influence on the rise. The political, economic, and security situation in Iraq, as well as the US and Iranian competition in the co

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Measuring the Causes of Instability in the Middle East and North Africa

ian — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new report entitled The Causes of Instability in the Middle East and North Africa, which is available on the CSIS web site at:

http://csis.org/files/publication/120126_MENA_Stability_Slides.pdf

Iran and the Threat to "Close" the Gulf

sherry — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

There is nothing new about Iran’s threat to close the Gulf, but it does need to be put in context. Iran is reshaping its military forces to steadily increase the threat to Gulf shipping and shipping in the Gulf of Oman, It also is gradually increasing its ability to operate in the Indian Ocean.

Instability in Syria

ian — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Syria’s stability and its role in regional security politics have become steadily more uncertain since early 2011. The country has now experienced eight months of popular protests. Despite a lack of political cohesion or unity of purpose among the country’s opposition forces, rural areas and smaller cities continue to experience increasingly armed unrest.

The Outcome of Invasion: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

sherry — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Iraq has become a key focus of the strategic competition between the United States and Iran. The history of this competition has been shaped by the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the 1991 Gulf War, and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Since the 2003 war, both the US and Iran have competed to shape the structure of Post-Saddam Iraq’s politics, governance, economics, and security.

Rethinking the Arab "Spring": Stability and Security in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and the Rest of the MENA Region

ian — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

No one can ignore the short-term problems the political upheavals in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia create for each country. New leaders must be chosen and security systems must be changed. The problems involved can kill political, economic and demographic reforms before they even begin.

Libya: Will the Farce Stay With US (And France and Britain)?

ian — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0400

At some point in time, it will be critical to examine the historical record behind the French, British, and US intervention in Libya and why they dragged NATO and allies like Qatar and the UAE into such a gamble.

Libya: “No Fly” to “Unstable Stalemate” or “Regime Kill?”

mentman — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0400

It is hard to get at the reality of US and allied operations in Libya, in part because there have to be serious limits to public disclosures of both the full nature of those operations and the real mission.

Egypt and Tunisia (and, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan)

ian — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0500

There is no one cause behind the upheavals in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen. The causes are political and ideological, and cannot be separated from the religious, ethnic, sectarian, and tribal tensions in given countries. It is clear from the statements of many demonstrators that they are angry at repression, corruption, and a lack of basic justice.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

Mon, 06 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The current strategic landscape in the Gulf is shaped by a competition between Iran, Iraq, the US, and the individual Southern Gulf states for influence in the military, political, and economic realms. Iran is making broad efforts to expand its influence over the entire Gulf, as well as to deter US military action, reduce US influence, and establish itself as the dominant power in the reg

The Saudi Arms Sale

Wed, 03 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The Department of Defense has proposed a new series of arms transfers to Saudi Arabia whose cost could eventually total up to $60 billion. A new analysis by the Burke Chair indicates that these transfers serve the vital national security interest of both nations. This analysis is entitled The Saudi Arms Sale: Reinforcing a Strategic Partnership in the Gulf.

Iran, Iraq, and the Changing Face of Defense Cooperation in the Gulf

Mon, 01 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The Southern Gulf states, the region, and the US all face a rapidly changing threat environment in the Gulf, and a sharply rising need for defense cooperation. These needs, and the changes in threat and military balance that shape them, are described in detail in a new analysis developed by the Arleigh A.

The New Saudi Arms Deal

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

One of the most critical strategic decisions the US will have to make over the next few years is how to reshape its security posture in the Gulf and the Middle East as it fully withdraws from Iraq. There is no possible “end state” to the US presence in the Gulf, or an end to the need for the strongest possible US security ties to friendly states in the region.

The Arab-Israeli Military Balance in 2010

Tue, 29 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Major changes are taking place in the Arab-Israeli military balance.

Saudi Arabia and Gulf Security

ian — Mon, 17 May 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The US has not yet defined how it will change its position in the Gulf, or the role of USCENTCOM, once it withdraws from Iraq. It is clear, however, that the Gulf will remain both a critical and a highly unstable region.

Options in Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

During the early days of his administration, President Obama had said he would give Iran until the end of 2009 to change their policy on nuclear weapons development. As reported by Reuters on Jan 29, 2009, the U.S.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world has focused on Iran’s missile developments, and possible nuclear capabilities, this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

sherry — Fri, 22 May 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world’s attention has focused on Iran’s missile developments and possible nuclear capabilities. Yet this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile programs, and their interactions with Iran’s growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare, are becoming steadily more critical security issues for the US, Iran’s neighbors, and the international community.