Program Related Publication Feeds

Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization in 2015: A Comparative Analysis

Sat, 10 Oct 2015 00:00:00 -0400

China’s emergence as a global economic superpower and as a major regional military power in Asia and the Pacific, has had a major impact on its relations with the United States and its neighbors. China was the driving factor in the new strategy the United States announced in 2012 that called for the U.S. to “rebalance” its forces to Asia-Pacific region.

Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization: A Comparative Analysis

Tue, 01 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The Military Balance in a Shattered Levant

Mon, 15 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The war against ISIL and the civil war in Syria have highlighted the importance of the military balance in the Levant and the extent to which it has an impact on Iraq and the Gulf, the flow of global energy exports and the world economy, and international terrorism.

The Arab Gulf and the U.S. Strategic Partnership in Ballistic Missile Defense

Mon, 04 May 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Iran presents a wide range of challenges to U.S. strategic interests that go far beyond nuclear proliferation. It is steadily improving the number, range, and accuracy of its conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, as a way to offset the U.S. and Arab Gulf advantage in modern air power and surface-to-air missile defenses.

Military Spending and Arms Sales in the Gulf

Tue, 28 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0400

There are many ways to measure the Gulf military balance, but one key indicator is to look at the relative size of Gulf military expenditures and the size and nature of Gulf arms imports and transfers of military technology. The Burke Chair has prepared a detailed comparison of key estimates of both military spending and arms transfers, drawing upon official sources as well as the work of

Judging a P5+1 Nuclear Agreement with Iran: The Key Criteria

Mon, 30 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

All too often in the real world, peace is an extension of war by other means. This is certainly the case with the P5+1 negotiations with Iran. The negotiations only have taken place because Iran faced sanctions and the equivalent of economic warfare.

America, Saudi Arabia, and the Strategic Importance of Yemen

Thu, 26 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

Yemen is a growing reminder of just how important the strategic U.S. partnership with Saudi Arabia really is. It is one thing to talk about the war against ISIS, and quite another to realize that U.S. strategic interests require a broad level of stability in the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula and one that is dependent on Saudi Arabia as a key strategic partner.

The Changing Military Balance in the Koreas and Northeast Asia

Wed, 25 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The tensions between the Koreas—and the potential involvement of China, Japan, Russia, and the United States in a Korean conflict—create a nearly open-ended spectrum of possible conflicts. These conflicts could range from posturing and threats to a major conventional conflict on the Korean peninsula, with intervention by outside powers, to the extreme of nuclear conflict.

Judging a P5+1 Agreement with Iran: The Key Technical and Strategic Issues

Mon, 09 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0400

The last few weeks have seen a polarized debate about a possible nuclear arms agreement with Iran that has sometimes gone from narrow partisanship to strategic infantilism. Both sides of the Iran debate have focused on a few narrow parameters of the overall agreement as distinguished from the real merits and risks of any proposed agreement.

The Iranian Sea-Air-Missile Threat to Gulf Shipping

jdunton — Fri, 27 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0500

The Arabian Gulf is now involved in a massive arms race, triggered largely by the fear that Iran will try to use its military forces to intimidate or dominate its neighbors. Iran has threatened to close the Gulf and carried out a wide range of large military exercises to show its capabilities.

Iran’s Rocket and Missile Forces and Strategic Options

jdunton — Tue, 30 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s rocket and missile forces serve a wide range of Iranian strategic objectives.

Iran, Evolving Threats, and Strategic Partnerships in the Gulf

Mon, 22 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The U.S. and its Arab partners in the Gulf face a wide range of threats. These include the Islamic State and other Jihadist elements, civil war, instability, and divisions in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. It is Iran, however, which poses the most severe military challenge, and one that goes far beyond its search for nuclear capability.

The Obama Administration: From Ending Two Wars to Engagement in Five – with the Risk of a Sixth

Wed, 03 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Presidents propose action, and then reality intervenes. This cycle holds special irony in the case of President Obama. A year ago, it looked like he might end two of the longest wars in U.S. history by the time he left office.

Key Trends in Gulf Security Partnerships, the Gulf Military Balance, Instability in Gulf States, and Iranian Nuclear Forces

Mon, 01 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The US and its Gulf allies face major crises in dealing with Iran, the Islamic State, and civil wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. The Burke Chair has recently issued five papers that focus on the key trends and data in these areas.

Chinese Strategy and Military Power in 2014

jdunton — Sun, 30 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

This report tracks and analyzes trends in Chinese military strategy, force structure, and regional activity. Open source material is used to detail how each branch of the People’s Liberation Army has pursued modernization. Chinese perspectives on their military’s role and development are featured, as well as the views of other relevant regional actors.

Iran's Nuclear Missile Delivery Capability

Mon, 24 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0500

Recently there has been a lot of attention given to the “Possible Military Dimension” of the Iran Nuclear Program, in particular concerns over Iran’s ballistic missile program and its nuclear delivery capability.

The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability

Thu, 18 Sep 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.

The Indian Ocean Region

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is one of the most areas of the world in human terms. It includes a wide variety of races, cultures, and religions. The level of political stability, the quality of governance, demographic pressures, ethnic and sectarian tensions, and the pace of economic growth create a different mix of opportunity and risk in each state.

The Downing of the Malaysian Airliner: Avoid Rushing to Judgment

Fri, 18 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The exact cause of the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 remains uncertain, but seems most likely to be the result of a firing of either the SA-11 (Gadfly 1979) or SA-17 “Buk Mk. 2” missile (Grizzly 2007). The SA-11 and SA-17 launch vehicles and missiles (four per vehicle) look very similar. The 17 has upgraded missiles but it is hard to see the difference.

The New “Great Game” in the Middle East: Looking Beyond the “Islamic State” and Iraq

Wed, 09 Jul 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. has good reason to try to prevent the creation of a violent, extremist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, to reverse the gains of ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria)/ ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham), and to help move Iraq back towards a more stable and unified form of government.

The President Has Taken the Right First Step on Iraq

Thu, 19 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The President's decision to send 300 more U.S. military advisors to Iraq is a key first step in dealing with the crisis. It ensures that the United States as well as Iran will have a presence on the ground, while any U.S. use of airpower alone would have effectively empowered Iran's Revolutionary Guards because they would have been present with Iraqi forces.

NATO and Ukraine: The Need for Real World Strategies and for European Partners Rather than Parasites

Thu, 05 Jun 2014 00:00:00 -0400

Events in Ukraine have made it all too clear that NATO’s primary function remains deterring war in Europe. The myth that Afghanistan was the key test of NATO had already died with President Obama’s unilateral decision to withdraw U.S. forces at the end of 2014, and events in Ukraine have already shown the United States just how pointless and vacuous the U.S.

Russia and the “Color Revolution”

Wed, 28 May 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The British strategist, Liddell Hart, stressed the need to understand rival views of grand strategy and military developments, or "the other side of the hill.” A range of Russian and Belorussian military and civil experts presented a very different view of global security and the forces behind it at the Russian Ministry of Defense’s third Moscow Conference on International Security on May 23, 2014.

Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership: Planning for the Future

Mon, 07 Apr 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The US and its allies in the Southern Gulf face great challenges, but they also have great opportunities.

The Need for a New “Realism” in the US-Saudi Alliance

sherry — Mon, 17 Mar 2014 00:00:00 -0400

The United States does not need to rebuild its alliance with Saudi Arabia as much as build a new form of alliance based on the new realities of the Middle East. Both sides need to recognize these changing realities, and the uncertainties involved, and develop a new level of cooperation. At the same time, they need to be more tolerant of the other side’s positions.

Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the "Clash within a Civilization"

Mon, 03 Feb 2014 00:00:00 -0500

No one has ever been able to travel to the Gulf without discovering just how different the perspectives and values of the West and the Middle East can be. During the last two years, however, these differences have threatened to become a chasm at the strategic level.

The Gulf Military Balance: Volume I

jdunton — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The United States faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Arabian Peninsula. The presence of some of the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas, vital shipping lanes, and Shia populations throughout the region have made the peninsula the focal point of US and Iranian strategic competition.

The Gulf Military Balance: Volume II

jdunton — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The Gulf Military Balance: Volume III

jdunton — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 00:00:00 -0500

The Gulf and Middle East Strategic Partnerships: The Other Side of the Iran Negotiations

Tue, 22 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

No one can deny the importance of trying to end Iran’s search for nuclear weapons. Even the most effective U.S. preventive strikes will leave a heritage of tension and confrontation in the Gulf that is likely to mean a continuing arms race and constant risk of some clash that will affect the flow of Gulf oil and the global economy.

The Budget Crisis and the Civil-Military Challenge to National Security Spending

Wed, 02 Oct 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Perhaps the worst part of the debate that has led to the shut down of the federal government is its almost total irrelevance. It threatens both the US economy and US national security, but it doesn’t even begin to touch upon the forces that shape the rise in entitlements spending or their underlying causes.

Negotiating with Iran: The Strategic Case for Pragmatism and Real Progress

sherry — Mon, 23 Sep 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The United States needs to be extraordinarily careful in dealing with Iran. Iran has now spent well over a decade using delaying tactics and negotiations to move towards a nuclear weapons capability. It also has strong reasons to continue. Quite aside from the issue of national prestige, Iran needs nuclear weapons to give its largely obsolete conventional military forces credibility.

Violence in Iraq in Mid 2013: The Growing Risk of Serious Civil Conflict

sherry — Thu, 22 Aug 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The rising level of violence in Iraq is difficult to measure and interpret, but it presents a serious risk that Iraq could return to the level of civil conflict it experienced during the mid-2000s. A new analysis by the Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS examines the patterns and trends in Iraqi violence since the departure of US forces at the end of 2011.

Transition in Afghanistan

Thu, 01 Aug 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The US is already at least six months behind in shaping an effective Transition in Afghanistan. It has not laid credible plans for the security, governance, and economic aspects of Transition.

Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development

Thu, 25 Jul 2013 00:00:00 -0400

China military development has become a key focus of US security policy as well as that of virtually all Asian-Pacific states.

The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia

sherry — Fri, 21 Jun 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The Evolving Military Balance in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia describes the strategy, force deployments, and the military balance in potential current and future scenarios involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the United States.

Syria's Uncertain Air Defense Capabilities

Mon, 06 May 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Over the weekend of May 3-5, Israel carried out airstrikes against targets in Syria, specifically against a shipment of missiles believed to be headed towards Lebanon. This is the third set of Israeli strikes that has hit Syrian targets without reports of effective Syrian resistance or Israeli losses since the start of 2013.

Defense Cuts, Sequestration, and the US Defense Budget

sherry — Mon, 29 Apr 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The mix of ongoing defense cuts from prior years, the impact of sequestration in March, and the president’s proposed 2014 defense budget have created a series of complex shifts that are changing America’s military posture.

US and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of the EU, EU3, and Non-EU European States

sherry — Thu, 04 Apr 2013 00:00:00 -0400

The various states that comprise the EU and non-EU Europe play a critical role in the competition between the US and Iran. Iran’s progress towards a nuclear weapons threshold capability – and evidence that it may be seeking to deploy nuclear armed missiles – has led to enhanced policy coordination between leaders in the US and Europe.

US Strategy, Sequestration, and the Growing Strategy-Reality Gap

sherry — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 00:00:00 -0400

Sequestration is no longer a hypothetical scenario, but is now a reality in the US. As members of Congress take steps to make sequestration a permanent part of the FY2013 budget, the implications of austerity on defense and national security are starting to become more clear.

US Strategy, Sequestration, and the Growing Strategy-Reality Gap

sherry — Mon, 11 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

As the March deadline for sequestration fast approaches, recent reporting by the Congressional Budget Office. Office of Management and Budget, the Department of Defense, and the military services have shown the damage sudden across-the-board cuts could have on national security and strategic planning.

Meeting the True Fiscal, Social and Political Challenges to U.S. National Security

sherry — Mon, 04 Feb 2013 00:00:00 -0500

We need to reform the ways we spend on national security. We need to debate our levels of spending on defense, foreign aid, and dealing with terrorism.

Afghanistan: The Failed Metrics of Ten Years of War

sherry — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The US has now been at war in Afghanistan for more than a decade, and is committed to stay through 2014 – with a possible advisory, aid, and funding presence that may extend to 2025. There still, however, are no convincing unclassified ways to measure progress in the war, or the trends in the fighting and level of violence.

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance: Parts I & II: Tenth Edition

sherry — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The US faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the Iranian nuclear and missile programs, conventional and unconventional warfare, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Gulf.

Defense Budget Cuts and Non-Traditional Threats to US Strategy: An Update

ian — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The deadline for the “Super Committee” to reach a deficit deal is rapidly approaching, with the cost of failure being devastating cuts in national security funding.

The Military Balance in Asia, 1990-2011

ian — Mon, 16 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has updated its analysis of the military balance in Asia released late last year. This report traces developments in the balance since 1990, and provides a detailed comparison of military forces as of 2011.

Libya: “No Fly” to “Unstable Stalemate” or “Regime Kill?”

mentman — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0400

It is hard to get at the reality of US and allied operations in Libya, in part because there have to be serious limits to public disclosures of both the full nature of those operations and the real mission.

Stability in the Middle East and North Africa: the other Side of Security

mentman — Mon, 14 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0400

National security is normally seen in terms of military strength and internal security operations against extremists and insurgents. The upheavals that began in Tunis have highlighted the fact that national security is measured in terms of the politics, economics, and social tensions that shape national stability as well.

GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and U.S. Extended Deterrence

sherry — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke chair has just published a new report entitled “GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and US Extended Deterrence” which is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/110202_GCC_Secur_US_Extended_Deter.pdf.

The North African Military Balance

Wed, 08 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The military balance in North Africa, and internal security developments in each country, receive less attention than the Arab-Israeli balance and the balance in the Gulf. They are, however, an important part of the security of world energy exports, and the struggle against terrorism and extremism.